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8941. Where is China heading?

Author:
Jean-Pierre Cabestan
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
China is ambitious, it is making this known and everyone is beginning to realise it. So much so that today a growing number of observers fear that it will take greater risks to achieve its objectives and fall into the famous "Thucydides' trap"; in short, that it will launch into a war, notably around Taiwan, which would inevitably involve the United States. Isn't its goal to supplant America and become the world's leading power? If, by 2028 or 2030, the Chinese economy were to exceed the US economy in terms of GDP, it is doubtful that it will succeed in removing the US from its pedestal. This is likely to be lower and more contested. But rather than a power transition, the world is witnessing the emergence of new, permanently asymmetrical bipolarity and, no doubt, a new Cold War[1].
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Economy, and Multipolarity
Political Geography:
China and Asia

8942. 70 years on, it's time to reinvent the ECSC

Author:
Thierry Lepercq
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Upset between Berlin, Brussels and La Coruña On 16 May 2022, in the Radialsystem conference centre in Berlin, a chair remained forlornly empty. The German Minister for Education and Research, Bettina Stark-Watzinger, inaugurated the conference "Green Hydrogen for a Sustainable European Future" promoted by the German government, before handing over to her Italian counterpart, Cristina Messa, and then to European Commissioner Mariya Gabriel. The empty chair was that of the French Presidency of the European Union which, despite strenuous effort on the part of the German government, did not wish to delegate a representative. In the Chancellery, the mood was one of great tension. Nearly 100 executives representing 31 gas transmission and storage operators (TSOs) from 28 European countries met with the European Commission on 7 June 2022 in Brussels. It was time to present the latest version of the European Hydrogen Backbone (EHB), an initiative launched two years ago by the German company OGE. On the agenda was the unveiling of an ambitious plan to build 28,000 km of hydrogen pipelines across the continent by 2030. One point of interest was a dotted line linking Barcelona to Livorno - to connect the Iberian Peninsula to the rest of Europe, bypassing France, whose opposition to cross-border green hydrogen infrastructure is no longer a mystery. A few months later, on 5 October 2022 in La Coruña, Pedro Sanchez, president of the Spanish government, hosted German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, together with some fifteen ministers. On the agenda of this summit: the European energy crisis and the measures that must be taken to strengthen the continent's supply security and European solidarity. One proposal stood out: to strengthen gas interconnections to allow liquefied natural gas (LNG) arriving in Spanish ports to relieve a German industry that is on the verge of suffocating - and to pave the way for the implementation of green hydrogen transport infrastructures (EHB).
Topic:
Energy Policy, Gas, Investment, Economic Crisis, European Commission, and Energy Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, and Spain

8943. Greco-Turkish relations at their lowest ebb

Author:
Alexia Kefalas
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
What really happened on 6th October in Prague? This question has been on the minds of European analysts since the dinner held in the Czech capital on the side-lines of the first summit meeting of the European Political Community. Versions vary between the international press and the 44 heads of state and government.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Greece

8944. What is President Putin so afraid of?

Author:
Francisco Juan Gomez Martos
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Faced with the brutal and unjustified military aggression of Putin's Russia against Ukraine, the vast majority of European citizens have realised what seemed unlikely until now: the possibility of a war in Europe[1]. A cruel and devastating war, both materially and morally, a war of occupation of a sovereign country and a free people. Undoubtedly the aggressor will be held accountable for his crimes before the international community and nothing will be forgotten. The EU is watching, perplexed but united and in solidarity with the heroic struggle of the Ukrainian people who are valiantly defending their independence and their freedom, which is also ours. The borderline between Western civilisation based on values and respect for human rights and authoritarian regimes that trample on the dignity of their citizens has been crossed in the blood of the victims, many of whom are civilians. The European Union, as a global actor, is facing its limits as it tries to curb the hideous logic of war against which it was built 72 years ago.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Democracy, Vladimir Putin, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

8945. Energy: great hope for the 21st century

Author:
Jean-Luc Alexandre
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The dawn of a new energy era is breaking over the world. In a few years’ time, everything will be different. Not only will we be able to overcome the scarcity, but also the planet will be undergoing depollution, and at the same time, the energy sovereignty of France and Europe will become a reality. Contrary to the hasty conclusions of some, or to the Malthusian mindset of others, the innovative capacity of the human spirit is boundless: a new generation of energies, notably nuclear, means that the future can be considered without falling into naive optimism however. An economic and societal revolution is now within reach. Historically, there are few fields that have generated a very large number of economic sectors around them. Among the most significant for over two centuries, three stand out: the automobile and aviation industries, as well as digital technology. Although the French were at the origin of each of these, the supply shocks that they have triggered all originated in the United States[1]. Today Europe may in turn trigger a similar kind of shock. In the same way that laptops have revolutionised work by simultaneously helping individuals become more autonomous and better connected to the world around them, the decentralised provision of a secure, cheap, safe, abundant and environmentally responsible energy service will be Europe's fundamental contribution to serene prosperity. This is provided that Europe mobilises for what is now much more than energy: its freedom. It could thus combine an overall vision for its territory and support the many local communities that make up its community fabric. To evaluate these assertions, which may seem to find inspiration in an unforgivable blindness, the difficulties of the current situation must also be considered, together with an explanation of the technological reasons why this can be overcome, and finally the path to achieve this has to be explored.
Topic:
Climate Change, Science and Technology, Sovereignty, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe

8946. Will the new generations of Europeans be up to the task of succession?

Author:
Isabelle Marchais
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The European project has been imagined and shaped by several generations. That of the founding fathers who, around Schuman, Monnet, Adenauer and De Gasperi, decided in the aftermath of a murderous conflict to build a new project for peace and reconciliation. That of Mitterrand and Kohl, whose joined hands at Verdun forever symbolise Franco-German reconciliation. The generation currently in office, born after the Second World War, embodies a need for renewal but is still marked by this memory. The new generation, born after the fall of the Berlin Wall, is quite different: for them, peace was a matter of course, until Russia’s invasion of Ukraine brutally marked the return of war to the continent[1].
Topic:
European Union, Youth, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

8947. How Can We Achieve Europe’s Ambitions in terms of Research?

Author:
Maria Leptin
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
A year ago on 26 November 2021, the Competitiveness Council adopted Conclusions on the governance of the European Research Area (ERA) and a Recommendation for a Pact for Research and Innovation in Europe. The European Research Council (ERC) welcomed this positive step forward[1] . However, the Conclusions and the Recommendation are the latest in a long series of efforts to complete the ERA, an objective first declared in 2000 with subsequent relaunches in 2007, 2012 and a new roadmap agreed in 2015. What lessons can we learn from past attempts to achieve the ERA to ensure better results?
Topic:
Science and Technology, European Union, Research, and Innovation
Political Geography:
Europe

8948. The defeat of Russia in Ukraine will herald the defeat of the Lukashenko regime.

Author:
Svetlana Tikhanovskaia
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
What is the domestic political situation in Belarus? Has the government been weakened by its brutal and incessant repression? How is the population responding? The government has been weakened by the protest movement of the Belarusian population. It has chosen the path of repression instead of meeting the demands of the people and holding fair elections. It has been weakened. The government now has a very small toolbox. Only repression remains. Any easing in its stance will be a signal for people to launch further protests, even bigger than before. Because life has not improved. When you are at war with your own people all the time, your position is a weak one. And the gains here for the so-called government are not visible.
Topic:
Democratization, Authoritarianism, European Union, Domestic Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Belarus

8949. Rising Apprehensions

Author:
Simon Serfaty
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
To the end, Samuel Beckett insisted that he did not know who Godot was, nor what his two characters, Vladimir and Estragon, were waiting for. That was not the least absurdity of his play, which he wrote in French, the Irish author later explained, because he did not know the language well. That is where we all are now: confused over what to expect as we stagger into the second and possibly final half of the Biden presidency. In America, momentarily reset as the leader of the Free World, a democracy at risk; in Europe, an alliance recast by an unwanted war; and elsewhere, a global mutation told in languages we understand poorly even when they carry a slight American accent. This is unchartered territory: across the Atlantic, half the people waiting for Trump to return to the White House and the other half waiting for him to go to prison; around the world, half the people welcoming America’s restored leadership and the other half celebrating its demotion; and all over, rising apprehensions over a war which neither belligerent can realistically win but which both refuse to end.
Topic:
NATO, European Union, Geopolitics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, Global Focus, and United States of America

8950. An Impact Analysis of California’s State-County Assessors’ Partnership Agreement Program

Author:
Geoffrey Propheter
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
California’s State-County Assessors’ Partnership Agreement Program (SCAPAP) provided select counties with a dollar-for-dollar matching grant from the state for assessment administration over a three-year period from fiscal year 2015 through 2017. One of the policy goals for the grant was to finance administrative activities that would lead to an increase in the property tax base, thereby increasing property tax revenue. This study evaluates how well the grant accomplished this goal. Using the synthetic control method on data from 2007 through 2018, I find little evidence SCAPAP funds increased participating counties’ property tax base. Since the purpose of the program is based on sound economic theory, I caution interpreting this conclusion as a reason to discontinue policy experimentation.
Topic:
Economics, Governance, Tax Systems, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:
California, North America, and United States of America

8951. The Unprecedented Federal Fiscal Policy Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic and Its Impact on State Budgets

Author:
Phil Dean
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, within a year’s time span, the federal government enacted unprecedented fiscal response bills totaling over $5 trillion. This response amount equates to about 25% of U.S. GDP in 2020. These massive allocations funded direct pandemic public health responses, along with vast fiscal support for households, firms, and state and local governments. This enormous response supported state and local government budgets both indirectly and directly, resulting in a marked budgetary shift from anticipated shortfalls to significant revenue growth and inflationary budget pressures.
Topic:
Budget, Fiscal Policy, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

8952. Muddling Through: Alaska’s Budget Process in 2021

Author:
Glenn Wright
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
In 2021, the State of Alaska faced substantial challenges due to the public health and economic impacts of COVID-19. COVID damaged Alaska’s state revenues by driving down global oil prices. COVID also harmed the state’s economy more broadly, with substantial impacts on some extractive industries and tourism. However, Alaska’s budgetary problems—high expenditures and low revenues—long predate COVID and are related to Alaska’s historical dependence on fossil fuel extraction for state revenue. Alaska’s budget situation has improved somewhat through 2021 as oil prices have risen globally, though this may also complicate budgetary debates in Spring 2022.
Topic:
Fiscal Policy, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North America, Alaska, and United States of America

8953. Don’t Go Chasing Windfalls: California’s 2021-2022 Budget

Author:
Brian DiSarro and Wesley Hussey
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
Amidst a global pandemic, a gubernatorial recall election, and a shaky economy, California had one of its best budget years in recent memory. Flush with cash, the state was able to make unprecedented investments in education, health, and social welfare programs, provide direct stimulus payments to many California residents, and still set aside money in its rainy-day fund. Governor Newsom handily defeated the recall effort, and the budget outlook for 2022 looks bright. 2021 was a tumultuous year, but California is proving that it’s once again the “Golden State”.
Topic:
Budget, Fiscal Policy, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
California, North America, and United States of America

8954. Colorado’s Political Climate, Economy, and Budget during COVID-19

Author:
Michael Berry
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic was a monumental exogeneous shock to the Colorado economy. Prior to the pandemic’s onset the state reported historically low unemployment alongside robust growth in personal income levels and state revenue. While the negative economic effects of the pandemic were sharp, the state’s economic recovery is outpacing what many economists previously projected. The General Assembly was compelled to impose major cuts to last year’s budget, many of which were restored with the enactment of the budget for the 2021–2022 fiscal year. The General Fund budget of $13.6 billion proposed by Democratic Governor Jared Polis represented a substantial spending increase of 20 percent from the prior year. The enacted $13.1 billion General Fund budget received nearly unanimous approval among Democrats and modest Republican support. Policymakers ultimately sought to balance competing priorities across many issue areas, while also preparing for the future with a major investment of $1.5 billion to the state’s reserve fund.
Topic:
Economics, Governance, Budget, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North America, Colorado, and United States of America

8955. The Year Without Tourism: Hawai‘i’s FY2022 Pandemic Budget

Author:
Colin D. Moore
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
Hawai‘i’s economy was devastated by the COVID-19 pandemic. The effective closure of the tourism industry created an unemployment crisis and led to a dramatic decline in tax revenues. Nevertheless, Hawai‘i managed to avoid mass layoffs of public employees and draconian cuts in public services because of federal relief funds. The $15.9 billion budget for FY2022 restored funding to most departments, but the state’s dependence on the visitor industry has left it particularly vulnerable to future pandemic travel restrictions.
Topic:
Tourism, Budget, Fiscal Policy, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North America, Hawaii, and United States of America

8956. Idaho FY22: Recommendations, Appropriations, and Partisanship

Author:
Elizabeth Fredericksen and Ana-Maria Dimand
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
This paper presents an overview of the State of Idaho’s FY 2022 budget recommendations and appropriations in the context of demographic changes, economic conditions, and politics. The Executive Budget for FY 2022 notes Governor Little’s historical support of education, job growth, economic opportunity, and fostering an environment for Idaho to avoid citizen migration to other states. However, this policy, along with the COVID-19 exodus, has resulted in a large influx of people from other states with the commensurate housing and infrastructure demands. As most Idaho budgets tend to move incrementally in support of education and infrastructure in the context of very healthy revenues, the state is likely to weather, though with some ambivalence, economic fluctuations. However, partisan tensions threaten education and safety net programming.
Topic:
Governance, Fiscal Policy, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North America, Idaho, and United States of America

8957. Montana’s Hard Right Turn

Author:
Paul Haber
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
Budgets, combined with tax policy, provide rich evidence of the applied values of legislative bodies and executives. This paper evaluates budget and tax legislation in Montana that resulted from the 67th legislative session in 2021 that set policy for the 2023 biennium. Montana, whose political complexation has long been purple, moved unambiguously red in the elections of November 2020. This paper speaks to how this changed things in Montana's public policy, in the areas of budget and tax, and a series of other policy areas. One of the more notable findings is that while budget and tax certainly shifted right with the dominance of the Republican Party that itself has moved further right than where it was as recently as 2019, it did not move as far right as many observers had anticipated. The explanation provided here is that this was largely a result of the large infusion of federal COVID relief funds.
Topic:
Governance, Budget, Tax Systems, and Partisanship
Political Geography:
North America, United States of America, and Montana

8958. New Mexico’s Box of Pandoras

Author:
Kim Seckler
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
In the spring of 2020, the global coronavirus pandemic brought deadly disease to New Mexico, a state already struggling with inadequate health care, vulnerable populations and an unreliable state revenue base. A strong executive and mostly willing legislature met multiple times in multiple special sessions to reduce budgets, allocate federal funds, and shore up public finances. They also had to deal with social and cultural fights aggravated by strict public health orders and plunging revenues. By the close of 2020, the state was slowly regaining its fiscal footing and physical health, though the underlying problems of inadequate health care, educational and economic inequality, and a budget overly reliant on extractive industries remain. As a result of the 2020 general election, the public officials chosen to resolve these issues are more likely to be progressive Democrats, more likely to be women, and more demographically reflective of the majority-minority state they call home.
Topic:
Governance, Budget, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North America, United States of America, and New Mexico

8959. Oregon 2020-21: Budgeting During COVID

Author:
Mark Henkels and Brent S. Steel
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
Oregon in 2020 and 2021 resembled other Western states: crisis on crisis. COVID, the COVID recession, forest fires and ice storms, and polarized politics dominated the news. Despite these challenges, the state’s fiscal situation turned out very positively. President Biden’s American Rescue Plan and the bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act signed in November 2021 provided many billions to the state for 2021 and will cover diverse infrastructure needs over the next five years. This paper analyzes the surprisingly strong general fund and federal fund situations created by the COVID era and considers the political implications of the state’s fiscal situation.
Topic:
Budget, Fiscal Policy, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North America, United States of America, and Oregon

8960. Utah: Strategic Investments in the Wake of a Pandemic

Author:
Jennifer Robinson, Natalie Roney, and Johnson Ball
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
Threatening economic impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic on Utah’s economy proved to be short-lived, due in part to early budget cuts, federal economic relief, and an expanding economy that out-performed expectations. Subsequently, FY22 provided the Utah Legislature opportunities to invest in education, infrastructure, and social services. Legislators also used this opportunity to cut taxes for veterans, the elderly population, and families. As the state’s population continues to grow at record rates, Utah decisionmakers must grapple with rising housing prices and record-high rental rates. This report highlights specific challenges and opportunities Utah faced through negotiating a record-high budget of $25.6 billion and provides an overview of Utah’s economy and changing demographic makeup.
Topic:
Investment, Fiscal Policy, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North America, United States of America, and Utah