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8861. The Price Cap on Russian Oil Exports, Explained

Author:
Catherine Wolfram, Simon Johnson, and Łukasz Rachel
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
If you’ve taken an introductory economics class, you were probably left with the strong impression that price caps are bad – they distort demand and discourage producers from supplying the market. So, why has Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, the consummate economist, advocated so strongly for a price cap on Russian oil? The answer is that this price cap is different from the standard cap discussed in introductory economics classes. A standard price cap applies to all goods traded in a market. For example, in some countries there are price caps on bread for everyone or diesel for farmers or rent controls on housing. Such caps lead to excess demand for the good and insufficient supply, leading to shortages at the capped price. If prices are constrained, other non-price mechanisms, like first-come-first-served, are required to allocate the good. All too frequently, the result is empty bakery shelves or fuel shortages or difficulties finding housing. To understand why the cap on Russian oil is different, we first need to provide background on Russian oil trade and the proposed price cap.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Oil, Exports, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

8862. Sharing Cyber Capabilities within the Alliance - Interoperability Through Structured Pre-Authorization Cyber

Author:
Jan Kallberg, Todd Arnold, and Stephen S. Hamilton
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
Abstract:
S haring cyber weapon/cyber capabilities requires trust between the member states, becoming a high-end policy decision due to the concerns of proliferation and the investment in designing a cyber-weapon that has a limited ’shelf-life’. The digital nature of cyber weapons creates a challenge. A cyber weapon can spread quickly, either self-propagating such as worms or via disclosure (and subsequent reuse) by malware researchers or malicious actors, raising proliferation concerns. Additionally, a cyber-weapon can be copied by the adversary or reverse engineered. Once the weapon is released, the adversary will eventually address the vulnerability, and the opportunity is gone. These factors raise the threshold between member states to share cyber weapons and cyber capabilities. Alliances, like NATO, prepare for a unified multinational, multi domain fight; meanwhile, the national cyber forces are still operating as solitaires with limited interoperability and sharing. There is a need in the collective defence posture to integrate the multinational cyber force to achieve interoperability.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Regional Cooperation, Cybersecurity, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

8863. Resource Mobilization in Palestinian Nonviolent Campaigns

Author:
Mahmoud Soliman
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Center on Nonviolent Conflict (ICNC)
Abstract:
This monograph analyzes how Palestinian grassroots activists, popular resistance committees (PRCs), and popular resistance networks (PRNs) secured, managed, and used material and non-material resources to wage sustained and successful nonviolent campaigns in Area C of the occupied West Bank. A comprehensive analytical framework is developed to capture a variety of resources and to better understand the role that different types of resources have in the launching, conducting, and outcomes of a campaign. This framework is then used to analyze three nonviolent campaigns led by Palestinian communities living under occupation, highlighting how the Palestinian activists managed to secure, administer, and deploy a diverse range of material and non-material resources to support their campaigns. This study offers specific recommendations and lessons learned from the investigated cases for various actors—including activists, allies that want to support grassroots campaigns, and researchers interested in furthering the study of the role and impact of resources in nonviolent organizing and their successful acquisition by local organizers
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Activim, Grassroots Organizing, and Nation Building
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

8864. Our climate future depends on conflict dynamics in Congo

Author:
Peer Schouten, Judith Verweijen, and Fergus Simpson
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The Congo Basin rainforest – the second largest on earth – absorbs four percent of global CO2 emissions and constitutes a crucial line of defense against cataclysmic climate change. However, a complex mix of illegal resource exploitation and conflict is currently threatening the rainforest. To curb these threats and their global consequenses, we need to understand the interplay between resources, conflict and environmental protection in Congo.
Topic:
Climate Change, Armed Forces, Conflict, Carbon Emissions, Forest, and Deforestation
Political Geography:
Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

8865. The bear in the room: Russia's role in the UN Security Council - and what It means for the West

Author:
Elias Götz and Jonas Geji Kaas
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The Kremlin attaches great importance to its role in the United Nations (UN) Security Council. This provides an opening for Western countries to use the Council as an arena for diplomatic competition with Russia. At the same time, the body serves as a much-needed venue for discussion and crisis management at a time of heightened geopolitical tensions.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, United Nations, UN Security Council, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia and Eurasia

8866. No climate security without human security: Insights from Africa’s climate hotspots

Author:
Louise Wiuff Moe and Signe Marie Cold-Ravnkilde
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
As Denmark prepares its candidature for a non-permanent seat at the United Nations Security Council in 2025-26, priority should go to shifting the international climate security agenda from state security and military responses to human security and climate change adaptation in fragile contexts.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, UN Security Council, and Human Security
Political Geography:
Africa

8867. Mapping climate adaptation finance in Kenya's devolved governance system: a case of Makueni County

Author:
Judith Mulwa and Marie Ladekjær Gravesen
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
These years, countries are coming up with policies, laws and regulations aimed at mobilising finances to fund response measures for climate change adaptation. It is, therefore, imperative that these finances, among others, are mapped out so that we can track the measures that are financed, the types of financing that are used, and ultimately look at whether the available funds are meeting their objectives in the ways that they are being spent. Kenya is among the first countries to develop policies, strategies and institutional frameworks for climate action, creating a policy and legal environment to advance an effective climate change response. And specifically, Kenya’s Makueni County has enacted county-level climate change regulation as part of the implementation of the national agenda on climate change. The Makueni county government and its partners have made significant efforts to build the capacity to integrate climate information into CIDPs and apply it to resilience planning and budgeting processes. Doing so, Makueni County has been able to attract climate finance in the recent past. The integration of climate financing in the budgetary processes and allocation is an important example that other counties and governance institutions could embrace to attract climate financing and to ensure that impact of the financing is felt at community level. This DIIS Working Paper is a first step at exploring these dynamics, looking at the main types of devolved public funds from the Kenyan ministries and at how Makueni has adapted local institutions and policies to meet local needs of financing for adaptation activities.
Topic:
Climate Change, Governance, Finance, and Adaptation
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

8868. Devolution of donor funded climate change adaptation finance

Author:
Per Tidemand, Andrew Hattle, Esbern Friis-Hansen, Beatrice Sumari, Peter Rogers, Judith Mulwa, and Millicent Omala
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
From 2013-2019 Tanzania received USD 2.0 billion as adaptation-related development finance, whereas Kenya received USD 3.3 billion. Based on the OECD database, this DIIS Working Paper analysis projects based on their financial value, measured as ‘adaptation-related development finance’. This is combined with an analysis of the project documents to measure degree of devolution was developed with three main parameters: the extent to which finance was managed through local government accounts; the extent to which the projects in the respective national budgets were considered devolved; and the use of participatory planning arrangements for management of the funds. Given Kenya’s greater emphasis on devolution, its fiscal strengths, and the autonomy of its counties, when compared to Tanzanian local governments, it was assumed that adaptation-related development finance would be relatively more devolved in Kenya than Tanzania. However, preliminary analysis suggests otherwise. The analysis also suggests that projects classified by development partners as ‘adaptation-related development finance’ in several cases exaggerate levels of funding and only contribute marginally to improved local governance of climate adaption activities.
Topic:
Climate Change, Governance, Finance, and Adaptation
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, and Tanzania

8869. Protecting the environment in times of armed conflict

Author:
Finn Stepputat and Jairo Munive
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Armed conflicts cause immense immediate harm to the people affected by them. Therefore, it seems only natural to focus exclusively on the human consequences, downplaying the environmental harm caused by armed conflicts. And although, in some cases, degraded environment and depleted resources like water or fertile soil can be at the root of armed conflict, the environment is frequently a ’silent victim’. However, conflicts can and do cause long-term damage to the environment, whether directly or incidentally, harming people’s health and livelihoods. Attacks and explosive remnants can cause water and soil contamination, or release pollutants into the air. The war in Ukraine, for example, has caused damage to internationally protected wetlands, national parks, and biospheres, and threatens to damage nuclear power plants. During recent fighting in Gaza, incendiary artillery shells set fire to hundreds of tons of toxic pesticides, fertilizers, chemicals, and other farming materials, causing groundwater contamination. Armed conflict can also result in further indirect environmental degradation. When people flee to camps or cities, the need for food and traditional cooking fuels such as firewood and charcoal can contribute to deforestation and resource depletion. Furthermore, armed conflict occupies government capacities. Environmental protection is not always high on states’ agendas, and they may themselves be involved in the unregulated exploitation of natural resources to sustain armed conflict. But all things being equal, armed conflict risks reducing states’ capacity for protecting the environment, controlling the exploitation of natural resources, and managing forcibly displaced populations during and after conflict. A case in point is Libya, a country affected by long-term armed conflict, where oil spills from ill-maintained power plants, oil fields and offshore installations have resulted in widespread pollution.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Environment, United Nations, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8870. Making headway on Loss and Damage: Identifying key gaps and charting ways forward

Author:
Lily Salloum Lindegaard, Heidi White, and Zoha Shawoo
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Losses and damages are increasingly widespread and severe – from loss of life, cultural practices, biodiversity, and livelihoods to damages to infrastructure and crops. The most vulnerable countries and populations are most affected, despite having contributed least to climate change. However, policies to manage losses and damages remain elusive, and actions to respond to them are insufficient. Through analysis of policy, research and practice this policy brief points to key gaps and potential ways forward in Loss and Damage policy, to support policy solutions and action on the ground.
Topic:
Climate Change, United Nations, Infrastructure, Biodiversity, and Loss and Damage (L&D)
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8871. The future of nuclear energy in the Baltic Sea Region

Author:
Izabela Surwillo
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has put the issue of energy supply at the top of the EU’s security agenda, leading to a drastic policy shift in energy relations with Moscow. Similarly to other European states, countries in the Baltic Sea Region (BSR) are struggling to phase out Russian fossil fuels and accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy amid skyrocketing energy prices. Although there are no quick fixes, the challenge of the dual energy and climate crisis in a tense geopolitical context has triggered different policy responses across the region, with national policies increasingly pointing to the nuclear energy sector.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, European Union, Crisis Management, Nuclear Energy, Russia-Ukraine War, and Net Zero
Political Geography:
Europe and Baltic Sea

8872. Shanghai Cooperation Organisation: A forum where China works for a multilateral order in Central Asia

Author:
Lars Erslev Andersen
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Since then, the organisation has developed its cooperation and included more member states and observer states, and it now constitutes an important forum in Central Asia where it is indeed relevant for the EU to elaborate its economic ties and collaboration. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation has been described in Western media as a defence alliance, à la NATO, facing the West and the USA. However, it is not a defence alliance but rather a forum for cooperation that includes security policy issues.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Organization, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Denmark

8873. Our climate future depends on conflict dynamics in Congo

Author:
Peer Schouten, Judith Verweijen, and Fergus Simpson
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The Congo Basin rainforest – the second largest on earth – absorbs four percent of global CO2 emissions and constitutes a crucial line of defense against cataclysmic climate change. However, a complex mix of illegal resource exploitation and conflict is currently threatening the rainforest. To curb these threats and their global consequenses, we need to understand the interplay between resources, conflict and environmental protection in Congo.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Development, Environment, Poverty, Food, Non State Actors, Armed Forces, Inequality, Fragile States, Violence, Police, and Justice
Political Geography:
Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

8874. Characterisation of Danish agricultural investments in Tanzania and Uganda

Author:
Rikke Broegaard, Helle Monk Ravnborg, Evelyne Lazaro, Teddy Nakanwagi, and David Tumusiime
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
This DIIS Working Paper presents key characteristics of each of the six cases including main crop focus, size and business model, as well as types of investors, their investment approach and the factors that motivate them. It also presents the different objectives that the investors have expressed wanting to achieve. As most of the investments involve private funds, it is reasonable to expect that one important goal is to ensure a viable economy in the investment. However, in addition to an economically sound investment, all of the investors behind these six cases have ambitions regarding ways in which they see themselves - through the investment - as contributors towards a positive societal development in the area of the investment. Thus, the paper presents the different ways the investors see their investments contributing to development in the area. The paper is based on interviews with the investors and field work in the areas of investments.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Environment, Poverty, Natural Resources, Food, Inequality, Investment, and Land Rights
Political Geography:
Europe, Denmark, Tanzania, and Africa

8875. Chinese companies in Arctic mining are gaming the master plan

Author:
Patrik Andersson, Per Kalvig, and Urik Pram Gad
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Looking for Chinese state ownership in Arctic extractive projects misses the point, and politically framed rhetoric from Chinese companies may be misleading. Some Western companies downplay their Chinese relations, but Western companies are often reliant on Chinese partners. In Western media, Chinese companies are sometimes discussed as being parts of a well-oiled state machine. They are not, but neither are they left to fight on their own without any support or guidance. Rather, they follow their own business priorities while eagerly seizing opportunities provided through supportive state policy. Interaction and integration with the state varies between different types of companies. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has a complex set of levers which make it possible to secure specific strategic investments. The likelihood of state intervention varies depending on the commodity involved as well as geopolitical factors. However, the preferred mode of governance is to issue general policies that encourage companies to contribute to state objectives.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Business, Global Political Economy, and Mining
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Arctic

8876. Myanmar - China´s west coast dream

Author:
John Nielsen
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Myanmar is blessed as well as cursed by its geography. Sandwiched between Asia’s heavyweights, China and India, it is potentially in a favorable position for trade and economic relations with both countries. However, trade and economic relations are secondary to China’s geopolitical and security interests in Myanmar. China´s main objective in Myanmar is to gain access to the Indian Ocean through Myanmar and gain control over a dual-use deep-sea port in Kyauk Phyu on Myanmar´s west coast. Another priority for China involves managing the stability of the two countries´ 2,000 km shared border. The porous border region has for decades played host to armed conflicts and is also the center of a billion- dollar drugs production and trafficking network. China regards Myanmar as forming part of its neighborhood, an extension of its national interests, and is extremely sensitive to any western engagement along its borders.
Topic:
Sovereignty, Geopolitics, Coup, Strategic Interests, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Southeast Asia, Myanmar, and Indian Ocean

8877. How renewable energy transitions impact power structures in local communities

Author:
Maria-Louise Clausen
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
International donors often see renewable energy transitions in fragile and conflict-affected states as a building block for peace and development. But donor-supported transitions to small-scale renewable energy generation can both mitigate and exacerbate local conflict dynamics and undermine the central state. In fragile and conflict-affected states, it is often difficult for the central authorities to protect large-scale energy infrastructure from attacks and sabotage, and thus guarantee long-term stability. Moreover, local communities often use fuel-driven generators to supplement the state-driven national grid, but national diesel supply lines are also vulnerable to disruptions. Consequently, international donors increasingly support small-scale renewable energy generation as a climate friendly alternative to centralised and state-led energy generation. Solar photovoltaic (PV) in particular has become a widely promoted, affordable and accessible technology for local energy generation.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Development, Water, Non State Actors, Governance, Inequality, Renewable Energy, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8878. With energy at play in the Ukraine war, everybody pays

Author:
Izabela Surwillo and Veronika Slakaityte
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Despite sustained efforts to turn towards the West, as a major transit country dependent on cheap gas, Ukraine has been particularly vulnerable to Russian pressure. Now, with the outbreak of war in Ukraine, the EU’s problematic dependence on the Russian petrol state is under stress, as diversification of energy supply from non-Russian sources in the wake of war will incur high economic costs for the EU in the near future. The Russian attack on Ukraine has put the EU’s lenient policy towards Russia into question and has highlighted its problematic overdependence on Russian oil and gas. On the 12th day of the war in Ukraine, with Russia under tough Western sanctions, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated: ‘We have every right to take a matching decision and impose an embargo on gas pumping through the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline.’ The International Energy Agency (IEA) has urged the EU neither to extend nor to sign new contracts with Gazprom. Meanwhile the EU is exploring policy options for diversification of gas supply. Russia currently supplies over 40% of the EU’s gas and nearly a third of its oil, leaving the EU exposed to economic and political pressure. Energy blackmail primarily concerns gas supply, as replacing Russian gas with other sources cannot be executed immediately due to insufficient gas infrastructure and market conditions (i.e. limited availability of liquified gas). While oil can be transported by land and sea, meeting the EU’s energy demand will nevertheless require both diversification of energy supply routes and speeding up of its energy transition. This process will prove challenging and costly. Phasing out the EU–Russia energy cooperation after the Russian invasion of Ukraine also marks a major shift in continental energy politics that affects all the parties. For Russia, the loss of the European market implies a huge loss of revenue and a deepening future dependence on China. Ukraine finds itself once again caught in the middle. For years Ukraine increasingly sought greater energy independence from Russia and deeper integration with the EU energy market. Meanwhile, the construction of pipelines such as Nord Stream 2, circumventing Ukraine as a transit state for Russian gas, made Ukraine even more vulnerable because it sent a clear signal to Moscow that energy trade with Europe would not cease, even following the annexation of some Ukrainian territories by Russia in 2014. During the current war, Moscow is claiming that Russia is doing ‘everything in its power’ to keep the flows through Ukraine to the EU stable. However, the damage being done to Ukrainian energy infrastructure and its economy at large is still hard to estimate.
Topic:
Oil, European Union, Gas, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

8879. How to support a rights-based approach to nature-based solutions

Author:
Mikkel Funder and Marie Ladekjær Gravesen
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
While NbS offer many promises, it is critically important to ensure that such approaches safeguard and strengthen the rights of indigenous peoples and local communities in the use and governance of natural resources. The recent adoption of a Global Standard for NbS is an important step forward but the Standard needs support and additional actions if a rights-based approach is to be realized in practice. This policy brief provides recommendations for how Denmark can help ensure this.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Environment, Natural Resources, and Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe and Denmark

8880. Russia´s comprehensive approach and the increased use of the Wagner Group challenges the West in Africa

Author:
Karen Philippa Larsen and Flemming Splidsboel Hansen
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
In the 2010s, Russia gradually returned to the African continent, where the Soviet Union was an influential actor for decades. The culmination of Russia’s public reorientation to Africa so far has been the high profile Russia-Africa Summit held in Sochi in October 2019. In his opening address to the Summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin noted how “representatives of all 54 African states and leading regional organizations are gathered here. This is indeed the first meeting of such a scale, and this is a convincing testament to the mutual desire to develop contacts in all directions, to strengthen the multifaceted partnership”. Russia has many interests in Africa. One fundamental interest relates to the international distribution of power. As a self-defined great power with an ambition to extend its influence still further beyond its immediate regional setting, Russia is almost compelled to attempt to gain a stronger presence in Africa. Both trade and the exploration of energy and minerals support this ambition, but its other tools include economic support (including by writing off debt), military support (for instance through the provision of training assistance or even the deployment of troops), as well as political support (for instance by using Russia’s weight as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council to publicly defend regimes under pressure or even to prevent the passing of critical statements or the introduction of sanctions). To illustrate, in January 2022, the Russian delegation to the United Nations strongly opposed the introduction of new sanctions against the interim government in Mali, noting that “we have always been guided by the principle of African solutions to African problems”. Other interests relate to trade (with a turnover of USD 20bn in 2020) and to the exploration of natural resources. Within the field of trade, Russian arms exports stand out. In the years 2016-2020, Russian arms exports to African states accounted for 18 per cent of all Russian arms exports, a 23 per cent increase over the period of 2011-2015. By contrast, Russia’s share of the global arms market decreased by 22 per cent in the decade of 2011-2020. This latter development is a clear sign of a very competitive market, and it suggests that emerging markets, such as Africa, will become increasingly important to Russian arms producers. The main importers are Egypt, Algeria, and Angola (where Russian producers supply 41 per cent, 69 per cent, and 64 per cent, respectively, of national imports).
Topic:
Wagner Group, Military, and Private Military Companies (PMCs)
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, Eurasia, and Denmark