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8281. The Digital Asset Battlefield Between the United States and China

Author:
Michael B Greenwald
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
United States dollar dominance has underpinned American economic and geopolitical leadership since the Second World War. The tremendous structural and geopolitical advantages the United States derives from the hegemony of the dollar have contributed substantially to Washington’s military power, alliances, and strong hand in trade relations with other states. However, the convergence of a shifting international balance of power and the accelerated digitalization of the world economy will have major implications for this pillar of American strength.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Currency, Strategic Competition, and Digitization
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

8282. Big Power Competition in the Indian Ocean: Will Economic or Strategic Logic Prevail?

Author:
Deepa Ollapally
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
The Indian Ocean is becoming an area of competition between India and China later than Robert Kaplan foresaw in his seminal 2009 article in Foreign Affairs, but sooner than its resident powers might have predicted. So far, the competition has rung high decibel alarm bells in India (and the United States), without having reached the inflection point of actual military “power plays” that Kaplan implied. India and China witnessed military clashes on land in 2020 and currently face an impasse over their disputed border.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Territorial Disputes, Economy, Strategic Competition, and Military
Political Geography:
China, India, and Indian Ocean

8283. War on Corruption

Author:
Josh Rudolph
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
Kleptocracies seem to enjoy powerful coherence between their domestic and foreign policies, given that they wield power at home and abroad through the same corrupt assemblage of actors, networks, tactics, and resources. By prioritizing the fight against corruption and kleptocracy, the United States can similarly pursue the most internally coherent grand strategy since it combined the containment of communism with neoliberal deregulation to win the Cold War. Doing so will require deeply reorienting foreign and domestic policy priorities by featuring the opposite side of the U.S. economic model, with less cowboy and more sheriff: well-regulated clean capitalism under the rule of law.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Corruption, Capitalism, Grand Strategy, and Kleptocracy
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

8284. India's Regional Connectivity and Indo-Pacific Partnerships

Author:
Constantino Xavier
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
Standing by one of the India-Nepal border pillars near Jogbani, Bihar State, one gets a ground view of the paradox of geographic proximity and lack of connectivity in South Asia. Through treaty and tradition between the two neighbors, this is an open border. In practice, however, the terrain and lack of infrastructure poses a formidable barrier to the rising demands of modern-day mobility. Whether it is trade, tourism, or transportation, this border still separates more than it connects.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Tourism, Regional Integration, Borders, Mobility, Trade, and Transportation
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Nepal

8285. Stagnant Things: The Department of Defense's Response to Information Warfare

Author:
Thomas Whittaker and Mike Schwille
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
The information environment — too often a buzzword for defense technology firms and military academics — is the highly energetic arena where foreign adversaries and non-state actors alike shape the narrative of the great power competition. ​
Topic:
Defense Policy, Non State Actors, Strategic Competition, and Information Warfare
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

8286. Sanctions Run Amok – The Undermining of U.S. Power

Author:
Keith A. Preble
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
Well into its second year, the Biden administration has continued to grapple with persistent foreign policy challenges while new ones have emerged: North Korea has not curtailed its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs; negotiations with Iran on resuscitating the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) remain stalled; and a Russian troop buildup near Ukraine may signal a potential invasion and full-scale conflict. In confronting these and other challenges, the United States continues to use economic sanctions as a mean of punishing, signaling, and coercing rivals into changing their foreign policy behaviors. As a tool of American economic power, policymakers often see sanctions as “Goldilocks” instruments that are “just right,” albeit ones that require time and patience to facilitate policy change.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Sanctions, and Economy
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

8287. The Logic of American Nuclear Strategy: A Conversation with Matthew Kroenig

Author:
Matthew Kroenig and Dylan Land
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
Matthew Kroenig is Deputy Director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security and a professor in the Department of Government and the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. His latest book is The Return of Great Power Rivalry: Democracy Versus Autocracy From the Ancient World to the U.S. and China. Dr. Kroenig has served in several positions in the U.S. Department of Defense and the intelligence community in the Bush, Obama, and Trump administrations, including in the Strategy, Middle East, and Nuclear and Missile Defense offices in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and the CIA’s Strategic Assessments Group. Dr. Kroenig is also Director of the Global Strategy Initiative and Deputy Director of the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, and Interview
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

8288. The Exhaustion of Bosnia and Herzegovina's Dysfunctional Constitutional Regime

Author:
Jasmin Mujanović
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
The footage is grainy. The cacophony of noise pours from the idling helicopters and the columns of police cars, motorcycles, and armored personnel carriers with their engines and blaring sirens. But the scenes are remarkable all the same. They show the city of Banja Luka, the second largest metropolitan area in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), on May 12, 1992. They depict a city under occupation by a regime in the process of orchestrating the first genocide in Europe since the Holocaust.
Topic:
Democracy, Constitution, History, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe and Bosnia and Herzegovina

8289. Assessing Countering Violent Extremism (CVE) Initiatives Across the West – Lessons Learned

Author:
Elena Savoia, Michael King, Anna Ekström, Diána Hughes, Adam Baker, and Lauren LaBrique
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
Countering Violent Extremism (CVE) programs worldwide aim to prevent individuals from engaging in terrorism. However, such programs vary widely in their approaches, which range from public awareness campaigns aimed at educating populations about the risks of violent extremist ideologies to in-person interventions for individuals who have already been radicalized and, in some instances, engaged in terrorist activities.
Topic:
Terrorism, Radicalization, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:
Europe and United States of America

8290. The War on Terror Continues

Author:
Jytte Klausen
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
Do jihadist terror organizations still represent a serious threat? If so, do they pose a serious threat to the West? The United States and Europe suffered few attacks during the past decade, and yet more jihadist groups are launching more attacks over a larger portion of the world than ever before. They all trace their origins and allegiances to al-Qaeda and its breakaway faction, the Islamic State, also known as the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS)...
Topic:
Al Qaeda, Islamic State, War on Terror, and Jihad
Political Geography:
Europe and United States of America

8291. The Terrorism of Tomorrow is Already Here

Author:
Phil Gurski
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
Many experts who track global developments in terrorism over time are familiar with the work of American political scientist David Rapoport. The UCLA professor emeritus is best known for what he dubbed the “wave theory of terrorism.” This comprehensive overview of terrorist movements spanning 150 years posits that there have been four such “waves” — or shifts in motivation, techniques, and outcomes — of terrorist activity since the latter half of the nineteenth century...
Topic:
Terrorism, Non State Actors, and Political Science
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8292. News Media and its Influence on the American Debate over War and Peace

Author:
Violet Gienger
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
Even the most diligent news consumers, flooded with information, disinformation, and infotainment, miss key elements of the biggest stories. Journalists, pressed by deadlines and ever-shrinking resources — due to staff cuts and the elimination of foreign bureaus and even copy desks, for example — leave crucial gaps in coverage. The result is a dearth of the kinds of in-depth, well-rounded news and accountability journalism that the American public and their leaders depend on for decision-making in a democracy.
Topic:
Democracy, Media, News Analysis, Journalism, and Decision-Making
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

8293. Responsible Statecraft Correlates with UN Vote on Russian Invasion of Ukraine: An Application of the 2021 Peddling Peril Index

Author:
David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, and Spencer Faragasso
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
On March 2, 2022, the UN General Assembly convened in New York and voted 141 (in favor), 5 (against), and 35 (abstained), on the UNGA Resolution ES-11/1, condemning and demanding an end to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This invasion is a paramount shift in the status quo of peaceful relations on the European continent and will have repercussions throughout the world. The Institute decided to assess the vote in terms related to international norms of responsible strategic trade and associated behavior, using the results and findings in the 2021/2022 Peddling Peril Index (PPI), which ranks national strategic trade control systems. We could have selected other international normative comparisons, but we decided to use the PPI since national strategic trade controls are often correlated with more responsible state actions, and the PPI also measures adherence to a large number of international treaties and conventions. A central finding is that the vote is positively correlated with states' demonstrated commitment and implementation of international arms control, trade control, and financial practices. Countries that voted against the resolution or abstained from voting performed worse, on average, in the Peddling Peril Index.
Topic:
United Nations, Norms, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

8294. Russian Military UAV Used in Ukraine Depends on Foreign Parts

Author:
Spencer Faragasso
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
Russia is well known to depend on foreign goods for its military equipment and industries. Recent Ukrainian social media reports illustrate the large fraction of foreign goods in Russia’s Orlan-10, a mid-range, gasoline-engine, propellor-driven reconnaissance unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) widely used by Russian military forces to pinpoint Ukrainian civilian and military targets for artillery strikes.
Topic:
Weapons, Drones, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

8295. Procurement Data and Safeguards: Looking Historically and to the Future

Author:
David Albright
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
Because nuclear programs depend on procurements, understanding such procurements has become an important aspect of safeguards today. This paper looks back at the development of this approach and draws out lessons for tomorrow. Past cases, recounted using open source data and Institute archives, are drawn from, among others, Iraq Action Team investigations, Iran inspections during 2003-2006, the Khan Network investigations, and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. These cases illustrate important lessons about collecting and including procurement data more explicitly in state declarations and meeting inspection and monitoring goals. The cases also demonstrate the value of procurement data in facilitating the detection of irregularities in a nuclear declaration or verifying the correctness and completeness of a state’s nuclear declaration. These experiences and historical cases yield additional insights and lessons into ways to increase the usefulness of procurement data in future safeguards practices and methodologies.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, Data, and Procurement
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8296. Three Presidents, Three Flawed Iran Policies, and the Path Ahead

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
News reports of a nearing breakthrough in the Iran nuclear talks will trigger sighs of relief, but the deal will likely prove disappointing on many fronts. With Russia’s horrific onslaught against Ukraine, news reports of a likely breakthrough in the Iran nuclear talks will trigger sighs of relief. But sadly, that relief will be misplaced. U.S. negotiators have already admitted that the forthcoming deal will not match the nonproliferation achievements of the 2015 agreement, and no official has even hinted that the revised text will either penalize Iran for its flagrant violation of its commitments or address the range of problems that have emerged since the original deal was reached. In this Policy Note, Washington Institute executive director Robert Satloff delivers a powerful, bipartisan critique, assessing how and why three successive American presidents started their terms with sound ideas on Iran and leverage to advance them but accepted either flawed agreements or America’s own isolation. Looking beyond a new Iran deal, he proposes an urgent agenda: scrupulous enforcement; a renewed push for a “longer, stronger” agreement; early preparation for the day after restrictions expire; close coordination with regional partners to counter Iran’s rising influence; and outreach to the Iranian people, who will see little benefit from the windfall in sanctions relief likely coming to Tehran. American leadership, determination, and resilience, he notes, will be essential.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Negotiation, and JCPOA
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

8297. No Going Back: Activists Reflect a Decade After the Arab Spring

Author:
Roy Gutman
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
nterviews with thirteen activists reveal a deep sense of disappointment but also a shared conviction that a new reform movement will eventually rise and deliver lasting change to the region. Against the backdrop of simmering protests, endemic economic challenges, the continuing struggle to contain the Covid-19 pandemic, and fallout from the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, The Washington Institute has launched a series of policy papers to help guide the Biden administration’s approach on democracy, reform, human rights, and political change across the Middle East and North Africa. The series addresses a range of questions: How do changes in the region over the last decade affect the new administration’s approach to these issues? How should the administration best prepare for the “new normal” of protests in the region? What are the policy tools at America’s disposal, and how might they be improved upon? How can Washington turn much-needed attention to new areas of focus, such as corruption and public-sector reform? What does public opinion research tell us about what the region’s publics want in their countries—and from the United States? And where might enhanced U.S.-EU coordination play a constructive role? The proposed answers will assist policymakers in advancing opportunities for reform, preserving U.S. interests, and navigating Middle East realities in the context of America’s global priorities. In the third essay in the series, Pulitzer Prize–winning journalist Roy Gutman opens up the floor for prominent activists to share their observations and lessons learned a decade after the Arab Spring. With a focus on six countries—Bahrain, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Tunisia, and Yemen—this paper shows that despite widespread disappointment with the eventual results of the uprisings, the desire for change persists, the fear barrier has been broken, and hope prevails that a new generation of reformers will ultimately deliver lasting change to the region.
Topic:
Reform, Arab Spring, Protests, Civil Unrest, and Activism
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

8298. Hezbollahland: Mapping Dahiya and Lebanon's Shia Community

Author:
Hanin Ghaddar
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The southern Beirut suburb encompasses multiple layers of clashing and besieged identities that pose major internal challenges to Hezbollah’s hold over Lebanon. The highway leading south from Beirut’s Rafic Hariri International Airport skirts the Hezbollah stronghold of Dahiya, allowing travelers to feel the group’s power and presence without seeing the surrounding community for what it is—multiple layers of clashing and besieged identities that pose major internal challenges to Hezbollah’s hold over Lebanon. For motorists, the highway barrier blocks any concept of the area’s polarized conditions, from the posh, shop-lined sections where senior Hezbollah officials live to the dark, impoverished warrens postered with fading images of “martyrs.” Drivers also miss the network of Iran-sponsored media channels, military depots, and religious institutions that flourish in the suburb—along with the secret prisons that fortify Hezbollah’s iron grip. In this Policy Focus, richly illustrated with local maps, former Lebanese journalist Hanin Ghaddar reveals the widening gaps between the country’s Shia community and its Hezbollah overlords, especially since mass protests shook the nation in October 2019. This analysis not only corrects past oversimplifications of Lebanese Shia, it also offers a path for policymakers seeking to undermine the militant group and give the fragile country hope for the future.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Hezbollah, and Shia
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

8299. Hezbollah in Colombia: Past and Present Modus Operandi and the Need for Greater Scrutiny

Author:
Aurora Ortega
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A probe of the group’s commercial activities can yield insights on its Latin American operations, which in recent years have touched not only Colombia but also Peru, Chile, and Bolivia. Research on Hezbollah in Latin America has tended to focus on Venezuela and the Tri-Border Area, covering Argentina, Paraguay, and Brazil, but recent events show that less noted countries deserve attention too. In 2014, for example, Peruvian police arrested a Hezbollah operative in Lima’s Surquillo district for planning a terrorist operation, and security services in the region also evidently disrupted a Hezbollah terrorist plot targeting innocent civilians in Chile. In 2017, Bolivian authorities identified a Hezbollah-affiliated warehouse and seized enough explosive precursor material to produce a two-and-a-half-ton bomb. Then, in fall 2021 in Colombia, local reporting indicated that Hezbollah was planning to assassinate an Israeli national as part of a broader operation that also targeted Americans, reportedly to avenge the January 2020 killing of Iran’s Qods Force commander Qasem Soleimani. In this incisive Policy Note, researcher Aurora Ortega demonstrates how enhanced scrutiny of Hezbollah’s commercial ventures could provide insight into the group’s operations and potentially disrupt its infrastructure in the Western Hemisphere. To this end, she highlights the activities of little-known Hezbollah agents in Latin America and outlines opportunities for the United States to interdict them through a mix of law enforcement, sanctions, and diplomacy.
Topic:
Terrorism, Non State Actors, Law Enforcement, Hezbollah, and Commerce
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

8300. Beyond the Blocs: Jewish Settlement East of Israel's Security Barrier and How to Avert the Slide to a One-State Outcome

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Communities outside the West Bank security barrier constitute an obstacle to a future two-state solution and a potential source of friction between Washington and Jerusalem. Springtime in Israel has been marked by instability, from a spate of deadly terrorist attacks to the resignation of Idit Silman from the coalition government and violent clashes in Jerusalem. Yet these developments do not change the fundamental challenges in U.S.-Israel relations: first, the shape of a new Iran nuclear deal, and second, Israel’s West Bank policy, which has largely allowed the hardcore among Jewish settlers to pursue their ideological goals through the construction of settlements, outposts, and neighborhoods outside major blocs. In this finely detailed Policy Focus—released in tandem with an update to his landmark “Settlements and Solutions” interactive map—Israel expert David Makovsky explains why communities outside the West Bank security barrier constitute a central obstacle to a future two-state solution. In making his case—aided by an assortment of charts and graphics—he explores settlers’ voting patterns, discusses trends in violent activity on both sides, and explains why a quiet U.S.-Israel understanding could help preserve an outcome that advances both American interests and Israeli democracy.
Topic:
Security, Territorial Disputes, Violence, and Settlements
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine