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8201. The Turkish Economy in Flames

Author:
Hay Ertan Cohen Yanarocak
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
This issue of Turkeyscope focuses on the deteriorating Turkish economy and Lira's devaluation. By analyzing the Turkish government's policies at various critical junctions Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak's article highlights the negative impact of the current crisis on Turkish society.
Topic:
Economy, Currency, Society, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

8202. Peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia: Who will economically win?

Author:
Emin Mammadov and Nigar Islamli
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
Following the recent September escalations along the Azerbaijan and Armenian border, in a way towards achieving a sustainable peace deal and long-lasting security in the Caucasus, the quadrilateral meeting in pragmatic terms is deemed to play a significant role in this vein putting an end to hostilities. The President of Azerbaijan and the Prime Minister of Armenia met in Prague on 6 October 2022 in the margins of the first European Political Community at the invitation of the President of the French Republic and the President of the European Council. Both sides reiterated their commitment to the Charter of the United Nations and the Alma Ata 1991 Declaration through which both recognize each other’s territorial integrity and sovereignty which will act as a legal basis for the work of the border delimitation commissions.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Sovereignty, Treaties and Agreements, Territorial Disputes, and Borders
Political Geography:
Caucasus, Armenia, and Azerbaijan

8203. Eighth sanctions package: Which side will be the economic loser?

Author:
Nigar Islamli
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
Since February 24, 2022, Russia's invasion policy towards Ukraine has been tried to be prevented by several series of sanctions by the European Union. These sanctions include trade, travel, asset freezes, oil, transport, and SWIFT bans. Since the start of the war, 7 sanctions packages have been presented and many of them are being implemented. In response to Russia's invasion policy against Ukraine, the European Commission presented the eighth package of sanctions covering visa issues and asset freezes.
Topic:
Economics, Sanctions, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

8204. Assessment of the role of Caspian Basin in reducing of EU's oil dependence in the light of Russian Ukraine War

Author:
CESD Research Team
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
In the background of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, European Union (EU) agreed to ban the overwhelming majority of Russian oil imports. Since the beginning of the invasion, the West decided to make Moscow pay economically for its aggression. Nevertheless, the decision aimed at the energy sector was quite challenging since the bloc relies on Russia for 25% of its oil and 40% of its natural gas.
Topic:
Oil, European Union, Imports, Russia-Ukraine War, and Energy Sector
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Caspian Sea

8205. Assessment of Initial Impacts of Western Sanctions against Russia: Effects for Azerbaijani Economy

Author:
Emin Mammadov
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
Repercussions of the western sanctions on the Russian economy increasingly arise that negatively affect the total economic structure. National GDP shrank by 4.3% in the first quarter of the current year. As forecasted by the Russian Central Bank following the exposure to sanctions, a 7 percent reduction in the GDP could be expected in the third quarter. Russian ruble lost its value by 7 percent against the dollar in less than a month which even resulted in an inevitable devaluation in the official exchange rate.
Topic:
Sanctions, Economy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia and Azerbaijan

8206. Assessment of Impact of COVID-19 on SMEs in Azerbaijan: Consequences and Perspectives

Author:
Narmina Gasimova
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
COVID-19 had a considerable negative impact on the economy of Azerbaijan, with SMEs being one of the major victims from the economic perspective. Economic sectors were affected to a different extent by the pandemic and lockdown measures. As a result of lockdown measures, many SMEs closed their operations with their employers not being paid or left without pay. Although the government provided essential support to small and medium-sized businesses, the share of closed businesses was high. Over two years since the beginning of the pandemic, a measures toward the improvement of the business environment was done. The share of operating and newly created SMEs increased along with legislative incentives adopted for their development.
Topic:
Economy, Public Health, COVID-19, and Lockdown Policies
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan and Caspian Sea

8207. Amendments in the 2022 State Budget of Azerbaijan: Impacts and Perspectives

Author:
Nigar Islamli
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
After the global pandemic, rising global demand, as well as the impact of geopolitical and military tensions, have led to a significant rise in the prices of major energy carriers in recent years. In the context of this pandemic, the recession in the country's economy in 2020 was replaced by the process of rapid economic recovery in 2021. The significant increase in oil prices in Azerbaijan had a positive effect on the nominal amount of GDP, although the increase in nominal GDP was mainly due to the oil sector, the real growth was possible almost due to non-oil sectors. The economic situation for the past period of the current year, the medium-term socio-economic forecast indicators, and the performance of budget revenues more than expected made it necessary to revise the state budget for 2022.
Topic:
Oil, Budget, GDP, Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan

8208. Potential Expansion of the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC): New Realities and Opportunities

Author:
Nigar Islamli
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
The article clarifies the directions in which the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) can be expanded and gas can be transported to how many countries. For the expansion of the SGC, countries such as Bulgaria, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Romania are studied in this paper. The issue of reducing Europe's 40% dependence on Russian gas and Europe's search for alternative energy sources and the expansion of the Southern Gas Corridor, one of the largest gas export projects to Europe, are on the agenda. In addition, the threat of several European countries - Poland, Bulgaria, Finland, the Netherlands, and Denmark - refused to pay for Russian gas in rubles, and as a result, the supply of gas is cut off.
Topic:
Gas, Exports, and Energy Dependence
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, and Czech Republic

8209. The Implications of the Third Trilateral Meeting in Brussels

Author:
Emin Mammadov
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
In a way towards a productive peace-building process, discussing the situation in South Caucasus and deepening economic cooperation between the EU and both countries, on May 23 President of the European Council Charles Michel hosted the President of Azerbaijan: Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister of Armenia: Nikol Pashinyan. Following the 6 April meeting, which is called by the President Ilham Aliyev as a starting point in the normalization of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the content of the recent meeting is once more characterized by its promising and necessary provisions that will serve the interests of Azerbaijan and development of the region more broadly.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe, Caucasus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Brussels

8210. The Azerbaijani economy in the first four months of 2022: İndependent View

Author:
CESD Research Team
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
CESD – the Center for Economic and Social Development – concluded its macro-economic survey results for the first four months of 2022. According to the State Statistic Committee of Azerbaijan, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 7.2 % in January-April 2022 compared with the same period of previous year: The CESD’s figure for the same period was 6.5 %.
Topic:
Development, GDP, Economy, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan

8211. Azerbaijani Gas Export to Europe: What Advantages Are There?

Author:
CESD Research Team
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
Following Russia's decision to restrict natural gas exports to Poland and Bulgaria, energy security has become a priority in the European Union. Although the ancient continent is trying to increase gas imports from alternative sources, Gazprom is still trying to maintain its dominance in Europe for some time. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan continues to increase natural gas production. In the first quarter of this year, Azerbaijan produced 11.8 billion cubic meters of natural gas. 3.5 billion cubic meters of gas were produced from ACG, 6.4 billion cubic meters from Shah Deniz, and 1.9 billion cubic meters from SOCAR. During that period, gas exports amounted to 5.9 billion cubic meters. 2.2 billion cubic meters of gas were exported to Turkey, 2.6 billion cubic meters to Europe, and 1.1 billion cubic meters to Georgia. More than 4 billion cubic meters of gas were transported to Turkey via TANAP during this period.
Topic:
European Union, Gas, Exports, Russia-Ukraine War, and Energy Sector
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Poland, Azerbaijan, and Bulgaria

8212. The economic impact of COVID-19 on Turkish-Azeri bilateral relations

Author:
Duncan Labadie
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
While the economic instability of the international system resurrected debates about the future of the World Order, diving against the current and studying in a destabilizing pandemic context a bilateralism touted for its durability and solidity seemed academically attractive. Thus, the purpose of this research paper is to verify whether COVID-19 is causing fatal economic disruptions among the iron alliances, or if on the contrary one is witnessing an "unnatural" strengthening. By reconciling empirical data (reports of the Central Bank, the OSCE, press articles) and academic papers, this study analyzes the surprising Turkish-Azeri economic consolidation before questioning its still-perceptible limitsin the short and long term. This work concludes that through the neorealist prism, Ankara and Baku managed to transform Covidian negativity into an element of strategic economic cooperation aimed at repairing financial loopholes on a national scale.
Topic:
Economics, War, Bilateral Relations, Natural Resources, COVID-19, Liberalization, and Asymmetric Relations
Political Geography:
Turkey and Azerbaijan

8213. FDI in Azerbaijan in 2021: Developments and Challenges

Author:
CESD Research Team
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
Attracting foreign direct investment is now more important for Azerbaijan than ever before. Against the background of global uncertainty, the development of the non-oil sector and the diversification of the economy have become even more priority. On the other hand, there has been a decline in oil production in recent years, and even though high oil prices, the country's revenue from energy sales is lower than compared to the period before 2014.
Topic:
Oil, Foreign Direct Investment, Economy, and Diversification
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan

8214. Potential Impacts of Sanctions against Russia on the Non-oil Exports of Azerbaijan

Author:
Eldayag Mustafayev
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
By using statistical descriptive analysis, this article analyzes how the isolation of Russia from the international trade and finance system, as a result of the Western sanctions, will affect the Russian trade turnover and what type of future challenges and opportunities it may provide for the non-oil export base of Azerbaijan. In terms of the opportunities, Azerbaijan can further focus on its main non-oil export goods such as agricultural and chemical industrial products to capture an additional share in the semi-abandoned Russian market, along with considering possible competition pressure coming from the other non-western Russian trade partners. Re-exporting opportunities currently are limited in scale and have a risk of facing international sanctions and criticism.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Sanctions, Exports, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia and Azerbaijan

8215. How Will Coal Sanctions Impact on Russian Economy?

Author:
CESD Research Team
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
The Western Alliance has approved a new package of sanctions against Russia. The most notable of the sanctions is the suspension of coal exports from Russia. What does this mean for Russia, and how can the European Union compensate for this ban? Yesterday, the European Commission posted a decision on sanctions on its website, which means that the ban will come into force. This means that from today, European companies will not be able to conclude contracts to buy coal from Russia. The contracts signed in the previous period must be completed by August.
Topic:
Sanctions, European Union, Economy, Exports, Coal, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

8216. The Future Offers of the Second Trilateral Meeting in Brussels for the Region

Author:
Emin Mammadov
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
For a continuation of the discussion on the situation in South Caucasus and deepening cooperation between the EU and both countries, on April 6 President of the European Council Charles Michel held a meeting with the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan where EU’s commitment in overcoming tension and the peace-building process was further expressed. The EU reiterated the necessity to adhere to the provisions of 09/10 November 2020 trilateral statement.
Topic:
Diplomacy, European Union, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
South Caucasus and Brussels

8217. How New Export Control Will Affect Food Security in Azerbaijan?

Author:
Emin Mammadov
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
The ongoing climate change and recent geopolitical tensions could spark a global food crisis with simultaneous disruptions to supply-chain systems that drive up the economic shock waves throughout the world. Following the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the upsurge in the price of agricultural commodities and broken supply chains are undeniably vivid. Both countries are exporters of vital commodities such as wheat, oil, corn, sunflower oil and corn, and disturbances to production affect the import-reliant countries.
Topic:
Climate Change, Food Security, Geopolitics, Exports, Supply Chains, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan

8218. Reducing European Dependence on Russian Gas: Challenges and New Alternatives

Author:
Nigar Islamli
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
The Russia-Ukraine war has revealed energy reliance between the European Union and Russia as an issue. In addition to the dependence of the European Union (EU) on Russia, particularly in the sphere of energy, it did not alleviate but rather aggravated, Europe's and Russia's security worries about each other. All happenings raise this question: Can the European Union eliminate its dependence on Russian gas? Is it possible? If possible, for how long can this dependence be eliminated?
Topic:
European Union, Gas, Energy Dependence, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

8219. The Economic Consequences of Russia-Ukraine War for Azerbaijan

Author:
Emin Mammadov
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
The past three decades of independence demonstrate that Russia remains a strategically economic and political partner, and multidirectional relations between two parties historically were of crucial importance. In the year 2021, total trade turnover between Russia and Azerbaijan accounted for 2.295 bln USD with a 12% upsurge recovering to pre-pandemic levels. Russia ranked as the 3hd largest trade partner of Azerbaijan in 2021 following Italy and Turkey and the share of trade with Russia alone made up 8.83% of the total in this period.
Topic:
Politics, Economy, Trade, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Azerbaijan

8220. The Economic Consequences of Russia-Ukraine War for Azerbaijan

Author:
Emin Mammadov
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
The year 2020 posed an unprecedented challenge to the World economy with the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic shrinking the global GDP by 6,7 % and bringing worldwide severe economic repercussions. Economic recovery is in continuation process in which the non-hydrocarbon sector acts as the main driver with a strong contribution of the oil and gas sector as well coupled with the rising demand for, and price of, oil that can further strengthen overall economic performance, however risks in the scenario are vivid.
Topic:
Economy, Risk, COVID-19, and Economic Recovery
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan