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7901. What Role do Local Elections Play for Societal Peace in Nepal? Evidence from Post-Conflict Nepal

Author:
Charlotte Fiedler, Karina Mross, Anna Berg, Prakash Bhattarai, Dorothea Drees, Tim Kornprobst, Alexandra Leibbrandt, Philipp Liegmann, and Maleen Riebsamen
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Can local elections introduced in a post-conflict context help to foster societal peace, or do they create new potential for conflict? The value of post-conflict elections has been the matter of controversial academic debates. However, this literature largely neglects to take into account the role of local elections. Based on the literature, we formulate three hypotheses on how local elections might impact societal peace, focussing on the periods before, during and after an election. The first focusses on the potential negative effects of identity-based mobilisation before an election, while the latter two lead us to expect positive effects – either through increased participation through the vote during an election, or improved responsiveness as a consequence after an election. We study each of these three mechanisms in Nepal, a country that experienced almost 10 years of civil war up until 2006 and where local elections were reintroduced in 2017. Combining 79 qualitative interviews at the national and local levels with insights from a large-n survey of 1,400 respondents, we find that overall the reintroduction of local elections had a clear positive impact on societal peace in Nepal. In particular, the results show that the elections increased participation and responsiveness, which has positively affected political trust and reduced (the potential for) political violence. Overall, this paper thereby contributes to the academic debate on the role of elections for peace, calling to attention the positive role local elections can play. It also demonstrates the benefits of moving beyond a narrow definition of peace in relatively stable post-conflict contexts to take a closer look at the effect of political institutions on societal dynamics.
Topic:
Elections, Conflict, Peace, and Society
Political Geography:
South Asia and Nepal

7902. Israel’s Ukraine policy: ‘Right side of history’ vs national interest

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
History has no right side and it does not evolve according to moral imperatives.
Topic:
Diplomacy, War, Military Strategy, Conflict, Strategic Interests, and Intervention
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, Middle East, and Israel

7903. Beijing Winter Olympics 2022: Sports, Law, and Policies

Author:
Tim Harcourt, Deborah Healey, Keiji Kawai, and Yang Pei
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
China Studies Centre, The University of Sydney
Abstract:
The 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics were hosted amid the Covid-19 pandemic and surrounded by concerns and controversies. This Understanding China Brief results from a roundtable discussion organized by the China Studies Centre and the Centre for Asia and Pacific Law of Sydney University on 3 February 2022 to examine four aspects of the Beijing Olympics: boycotts, COVID- 19 control, law reform, and the economics of the Olympics.
Topic:
Economics, Reform, Sports, Conflict, Olympics, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
China and Asia

7904. Comparing Older Adults’ Mental Health Needs and Access to Treatment in the U.S. and Other High-Income Countries

Author:
Munira Z. Gunja, Arnav Shah, and Reginald D. Williams II
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Commonwealth Fund
Abstract:
Nearly all U.S. adults over 65 have some mental health coverage through Medicare. Whether that coverage is sufficient is in question. Comparing mental health care access and affordability for U.S. Medicare beneficiaries with that for older adults in peer nations could highlight coverage gaps and point to opportunities for improvement.
Topic:
Economics, Health Care Policy, Social Policy, and Medicare
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

7905. Primary Care in High-Income Countries: How the United States Compares

Author:
Molly FitzGerald, Munira Z. Gunja, and Roosa Tikkanen
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Commonwealth Fund
Abstract:
Primary care providers (PCPs) serve as most people’s first point of contact with the health care system. These clinicians build relationships with their patients over time and help coordinate care delivered by other health care providers.1 Evidence shows that a strong foundation of primary care yields better health outcomes overall, greater equity in health care access and outcomes, and lower per capita health costs.2 But in the United States, decades of underinvestment and a low provider supply, among other problems, have limited access to effective primary care.3 This brief highlights gaps in the U.S. primary care system by comparing its performance to systems in 10 other high-income countries.
Topic:
Governance, Health Care Policy, Medicine, and Primary Care
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

7906. Mapping state capacity in Africa: Professionalism and reach

Author:
Matthias Krönke, Robert Mattes, and Vinothan Naidoo
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Whether depicted as bloated, extractive, or remote from the lives of ordinary citizens, the African state is widely seen to lack the necessary capacity to provide for the physical and material security of its citizens or to command legitimacy. Yet scholars have rarely attempted to assess the performance of the African state through the prism of the lived experiences of those whom the state is meant to serve – its citizens. Most studies rely on data supplied by national statistics agencies or the judgments of expert observers. And while scholars acknowledge that the quality of the African state is likely shaped by geographic and ethnic differences within countries, few have measured how state capacity varies at the sub-national level. In this paper, we address this situation by using survey research measures of respondents’ proximity to state services and actual experiences with civil servants to measure two distinct dimensions of the state salient to the African context: its reach, or physical presence at the grassroots across the breadth of a country, and its professionalism, or ability to deliver public services in a proficient and ethical manner. The results reveal new perspectives on which states excel on either or both dimensions. They also illustrate how widely state performance varies at the sub-national level. Finally, we use survey data to assess the performance of the state, and show that it is the degree of professionalism, and sometimes reach, that enables the state to provide security and welfare, satisfy demands, and secure popular legitimacy. But in contrast to usual expectations, the size of the state at senior levels has no impact.
Topic:
Nationalism, State Formation, State Building, Professionalism, and Subnationalism
Political Geography:
Africa

7907. Footing the bill? Less legitimacy, more avoidance mark African views on taxation

Author:
Thomas Isbell
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Taxation is a key fiscal tool for domestic resource mobilization. In many African countries, however, weak tax-administration systems limit the ways in which governments can finance their development agendas and provide essential services such as health care, education, and infrastructure (Drummond, Daal, Srivastava, & Oliveira, 2012). The importance of raising resources through taxation has been heightened by the COVID-19 pandemic. Governments globally have confronted a sudden drop in tax revenue as many economic sectors have slowed amid lockdowns. Especially in developing countries, this shock has significantly curtailed governments’ ability to fund access to vital health, financial, and other services and assistance to those most affected by the pandemic (Gaspar, Hanif, Pazarbasioglu, & Saint-Amans, 2020). The reduction in tax revenue during the pandemic is likely to compound itself over time and limit how quickly developing economies can bounce back as governments lack the fiscal resources to stimulate growth. Even without a pandemic, tax revenues are relatively low across Africa. In 2019, 30 African countries averaged tax revenues totaling 16.6% of gross domestic product – half the 33.8% collected by member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD/AUC/ATAF, 2021). In addition to capacity limitations of government tax agencies, low tax revenues can be related to macroeconomic factors such as large agricultural and informal sectors, which are typically hard to tax (Di John, 2006; Mansour & Keen, 2009; Coulibaly & Gandhi, 2018; Moore, Prichard, & Fjeldstad, 2018). One current debate concerns how to tax highly digitalized businesses – which operate in African countries without necessarily having an easily taxable physical presence – in a way that is fair and doesn’t impede the growth of start-up companies (African Tax Administration Forum, 2020). But low tax revenues can also reflect micro-level factors such as citizens’ limited willingness to pay taxes (“tax morale”), a lack of knowledge about what they owe and what their taxes are used for, and their perceptions of corruption in the tax administration (OECD, 2019). If citizens regard paying taxes as a fiscal exchange or contractual relationship (Moore, 2004), these factors can affect the perceived legitimacy of taxation as a whole (D’Arcy, 2011). Beyond short- and medium-term fiscal problems, this can also have a more fundamental impact on the legitimacy of governments and political systems. The ability to raise revenue through taxes is an important marker of state capacity and political legitimacy (Brautigam, Fjeldstad, & Moore, 2008), and may contribute to government responsiveness and accountability as taxpayers demand a return on their taxes (Moore et al., 2018). How do Africans see taxation? Afrobarometer survey data collected in 34 African countries in 2019/2021 show that a majority of Africans endorse their government’s right to collect taxes. But popular support for taxation has weakened over the past decade while perceptions that people often avoid paying their taxes have increased sharply. Moreover, many Africans question the fairness of their country’s tax burden, and only half think their government is using tax revenue for the well-being of its citizens. While a majority would pay higher taxes to support young people and national development, most say they find it difficult to get information about tax requirements and uses, and many see tax officials as corrupt and untrustworthy. Such perceptions may play a role in how willingly citizens support – and comply with – their government’s tax administration.
Topic:
Political stability, Tax Systems, Legitimacy, and State Funding
Political Geography:
Africa

7908. Broad support for multiparty elections, little faith in electoral institutions: Uganda in comparative perspective

Author:
Matthias Krönke
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
In the run-up to Uganda’s 2021 election, in which President Yoweri Museveni defeated Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, aka Bobi Wine, to claim a sixth term, violence reached unprecedented levels. More than 50 people were killed as security forces broke up opposition party gatherings, and several opposition members were arbitrarily detained (Arinaitwe, 2021). Although Election Day, 14 January, was relatively peaceful, more than 17.5 million Ugandans experienced a multiday Internet blackout, making social media platforms and news websites inaccessible at a time when they were in high demand (BBC, 2021; Moffat & Bennett, 2021). Election observers from the East African Community (EAC) noted malfunctioning biometric voter-verification machines and delays in the delivery of voting materials, among other issues, but joined domestic observers from the Citizens’ Coalition for Electoral Democracy in Uganda in labeling the election largely free and fair. The Electoral Commission (EC) ultimately declared Museveni the winner with 58% of the vote – a comfortable lead over Bobi Wine (35%) and his fellow challengers (Moffat & Bennett, 2021; Yiga, 2021). Wine initially filed a court challenge in which he complained of soldiers stuffing ballot boxes, casting ballots for people, and chasing voters away from polling stations, but he later withdrew the case (Muhumuza, 2021). Court challenges after elections are commonplace in Uganda; since the country’s adoption of the fourth constitution in 1995, the outcome of every presidential race except the 2011 poll has been contested in court. Yet the courts have never overturned the results, even when they have acknowledged irregularities (Atuhaire, 2021). Beyond Museveni’s victory, what are the implications of the 2021 election for a country that returned to multiparty competition just 15 years ago? Should Ugandans be enthusiastic about a strong opposition showing as a sign of a healthy democracy at work, or will the prospect of enduring National Resistance Movement rule lead to disillusionment with democracy and the institutions that are meant to safeguard it – the EC and the courts? This policy paper aims to place the events of the 2021 election in perspective by examining public opinion data from Uganda over the past two decades. Despite a decade-long slide in Ugandans’ satisfaction with democracy, this analysis supports previous findings that more and more citizens have become “committed democrats” and view multiparty elections as tools for holding non-performing leaders accountable (Isbell & Kibirige, 2017; Kakumba, 2020; Kibirige, 2018). However, this investigation also points to decreasing trust in institutions that are meant to enforce the most basic of democratic processes – free and fair elections. Importantly, this negative trend cuts across the partisan divide. The analysis also shows that EC performance – both in executing its technical tasks and in refereeing fairly between competing parties – plays a crucial role in citizens’ evaluations of election quality. While public debate about reforming the EC is not new (Kibirige, 2016), the events of the 2021 election may provide impetus for intensifying efforts to increase transparency and improve communication on the part of the commission in order to enhance citizens’ satisfaction with the electoral process.
Topic:
Elections, Multi Party System, Partisanship, and Electoral Systems
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

7909. The challenges of the French Presidency of the Council

Author:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
On 1 January, France took over the presidency of the Council of the European Union for six months. The exercise, which mainly consists of leading meetings of European ministers, is also an opportunity for the country temporarily in charge to convey its priorities and even a political vision for Europe. In this respect, the French Presidency comes at a particular time for the European Union, for France and for its President, Emmanuel Macron. Hard hit by the pandemic, the European Union is both emerging from the crisis and adapting to the global changes accelerated by the crisis. France, for its part, is preparing for a major political event, the presidential election in April, followed by the legislative elections in June. For Emmanuel Macron, the French Presidency of the Council will bring to a close a presidential term of office that has focused strongly on European issues, almost five years after his speech at the Sorbonne.
Topic:
Politics, European Union, Leadership, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and France

7910. For a new European growth strategy

Author:
Nicolas Goetzmann
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The early 1990s saw the demise of the Soviet bloc, erasing more than forty years of competition with the United States: the rest of the decade witnessed the economic emergence of the People's Republic of China and the formal advent of the euro area as the economic powerhouse of the European Union. Two decades later, according to data published by the IMF, almost 60% of the world economy is now shared between these three dominant economic areas, the United States, China and the European Union, reshaping the face of the competition for global power.
Topic:
European Union, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, and IMF
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and United States of America

7911. European sovereignty, strategic autonomy, Europe as a power: what reality for the European Union and what future?

Author:
Bruno Dupré
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
France has not held the presidency of the Council of the European Union for thirteen years. It has held it since 1 January 2022 for a period of six months. This provides an opportunity for the French Head of State to give his vision of geopolitical issues. It also provides an opportunity to explain the concepts of European sovereignty, power, autonomy and strategic responsibility. France, with Germany and the support of the institutions, has played an essential - albeit contested - role in promoting a more political Europe over the past five years (Sorbonne speech in 2017). The aim of this article is to assess five years – in terms of where we are from an economic, foreign policy and security point of view and to analyse the steps taken by the European Union to become a fullfledged player on the international scene.
Topic:
Security, Sovereignty, European Union, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:
Europe

7912. "If only ageing Europe had taken the easy option of more immigration"

Author:
Giles Merritt
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
It seems extraordinary three-quarters of a century after the Treaty of Rome was signed, and almost 30 years since the European Union's 'Big Bang' enlargement, that a major common problem should so consistently fail to find a common solution. Yet that is the fate of immigration policies in Europe. Extraordinary may not be the right word; 'Significant' might be more appropriate because the issues surrounding immigration into Europe are not just politically sensitive in national terms but also point to fault lines that threaten the EU's future integrity
Topic:
Demographics, Migration, Immigration, European Union, and Aging
Political Geography:
Europe

7913. The European strategy for a 'New Deal' with Africa

Author:
Ramona Bloj
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
On 17 and 18 February will take place in Brussels the 6th Summit between the European Union and the African Union - a vital meeting for Afro-European relations. The heads of state and government (twenty-seven Europeans and fifty-five Africans) are invited to discuss issues such as financing growth, the future of health systems, vaccine production, agriculture, education, vocational training, culture, immigration, mobility, support for the private sector and economic integration, governance, peace, security, climate change and the energy transition.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, European Union, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe

7914. Russia, Ukraine and international Law

Author:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Russian actions in Ukraine since 2014, and the tensions to which they have led, obscure the legal aspects of these attacks thereby opening the way to propaganda and approximations. To contribute to a better understanding of what is at stake, this contribution is limited to the legal aspects of an otherwise eminently political issue. This in fact heralds a spectacular break in the international order and a violation of commitments and treaties signed by a member of the Security Council of the United Nations that have not been witnessed since the Second World War[1].For a long time, Russian diplomacy was attached to the strict and formal respect of the rules of international law, sometimes "clinging" to them in a bid to resist the demands made by the different populations. Even during the succession of the USSR, this constant was respected. However, the actions in Crimea and Donbass since 2014 have marked the abandonment of this formalism, while the Kremlin's diplomacy is promoting the need to conclude new treaties with the United States and European states so that Russia can endorse its claims.
Topic:
International Law, Conflict, Norms, Annexation, and Disputes
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

7915. The Eastern Partnership under the test of war in Ukraine

Author:
Pierre Mirel
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
On the eve of the fifth enlargement of the European Union in 2003, the neighbourhood policy was launched to “prevent further lines of division in Europe and to promote stability and prosperity” and to create, according to a now famous concept, a “circle of friends”. The Eastern Partnership, which emerged on 7 May 2009, is now being undermined by the Russian military invasion of Ukraine.
Topic:
European Union, Partnerships, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

7916. Has Europe’s hour come?

Author:
Antoine Cibirski
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
“Europe’s hour has come”, said a Luxembourg minister in 1991 at the beginning of the Yugoslav wars. The context seemed favourable: an initially peripheral crisis, a relative lack of interest on the part of Russia, a green light from the United States which was even encouraging invention by the Western European Union (WEU), the majority of whose activities were taken over by the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP), and later by the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP). America's 'pet project' at the time was not yet Asia, but rather the management of the decay of the Soviet world, without much interest in the Western Balkans. In response, some Europeans 'held back' and feared an unfavourable division of tasks: 'noble' collective defence missions reserved for NATO and peacekeeping missions, considered 'subordinate', for Europe. Strategic prescience! Four years later, we had witnessed the bombing of civilians, the siege of Sarajevo, broken ceasefires, failed mediations and Srebreniça. We had experienced the humiliations inflicted on a UN force (UNPROFOR) that had a timid mandate and overly restrictive rules of engagement. The British and French were in the field this time round, but not the Germans. The Dayton Peace Agreement, which only France calls "the Dayton-Paris agreement" (a formal concession by Bill Clinton to Jacques Chirac) was largely a Pax Americana. In the American camp, Richard Holbrooke had pulled the strings and decided everything, by ruthlessly relegating the European leaders, including Carl Bildt, Jacques Blot and Pauline Neville-Jones[1].
Topic:
European Union, Conflict, and Integration
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

7917. European unilateralism as a tool for regulating international trade: a necessary evil in a collapsing multilateral system

Author:
Alan Hervé
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), the fight to prevent illegal foreign subsidies, the ban on trade in deforestation products, the due diligence obligation imposed on European companies, the anti-coercion regulation, the reciprocity instrument in public procurement, the foreign investment screening regulation, not to mention the set of exceptional trade measures implemented in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine; there is a long list of decisions adopted and under discussion that mark the European Union's determination to decide alone on the regulation of trade between itself and the rest of the world. This European "neo-unilateralism" is certainly based on a logic that is not entirely new - the defence of the Union's interests through trade policy or trade regulation instruments - but it also presents singular features and reflects political choices that prevail, more than in the past, over strict mercantile considerations. It is a vehicle for promoting the European Union's strategic autonomy in a multilateral system that is in the process of collapsing and an international order that has been hit by crises.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, European Union, Multilateralism, International System, and Unilateralism
Political Geography:
Europe

7918. World food crisis: between withdrawal and responsibility, Europe must choose

Author:
Emmanuelle Ducros
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The profound destructuring of world food markets as a result of Russia's war on Ukraine is forcing all of the world's agricultural powers to question their place on the world stage of satiety - or hunger. This is primarily the case in Europe.
Topic:
Food, Hunger, Armed Conflict, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

7919. Nuclear Waste Policy Actions for the 117th Congress and Biden Administration

Author:
Matt Bowen
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
In the 117th Congress, the United States Senate is evenly divided, 50-50, between the two major political parties, and the margin for control of the US House is small. One nonpartisan—and overdue—policy issue that Congress and the executive branch could focus on is the US nuclear waste management program. The US is currently paying billions to utilities to house spent nuclear fuel (SNF) at operating and shutdown facilities, and high-level waste (HLW) remains at former nuclear weapons complex sites around the country. Add to this the potential for greater future reliance on nuclear power in a decarbonizing economy, and the need to finally get a handle on managing radioactive waste is clear. An earlier report from the Center on Global Energy Policy on the US nuclear waste management program examined larger structural changes that the federal government could pursue to help the program make progress, such as fixing the funding mechanism and updating regulatory standards.[1] This commentary discusses the US program as it stands in the 117th Congress and proposes a series of comparatively smaller actions that could be considered and perhaps pursued on a bipartisan basis in the next few years.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Governance, Leadership, and Nuclear Waste
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

7920. Greenhouse Gas Emissions from State-Owned Enterprises: A Preliminary Inventory

Author:
Alex Clark and Philippe Benoit
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
State-owned enterprises (SOEs) play a major role in the production of goods and services across many of the world’s largest economies, particularly in electricity generation, oil and gas, and heavy industry. SOEs (defined in this report as companies for which 50 percent or more of voting shares are held by a government) are also major sources of greenhouse gas emissions. The governments that control these SOEs are also signatories to the Paris Agreement on climate change. State ownership provides these governments with a major direct point of control over the climate and energy outcomes of these companies, both in terms of reducing emissions and directing future investment into low-carbon technologies and infrastructure. Improving the measurement of SOEs’ contribution to both national and global-level emissions provides important information to help understand to what extent SOEs should be targeted and to design strategies to maximize their potential role in the broader energy transition. This report provides an accounting of direct emissions associated with SOEs globally. It is challenging to comprehensively identify every SOE, as the total is estimated at well over 100,000. In addition, most identified SOEs do not disclose their emissions nor are estimates of these emissions available in the public domain. Despite these limitations, data compiled for this report covering almost 300 major SOEs suggest that SOEs globally are responsible for at least 7.49 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) annually in direct (Scope 1) emissions. While the true scale of SOE-related emissions is likely to be substantially higher, particularly when accounting for national oil companies and iron and steel manufacturers that do not currently report their emissions, this figure is over 1 GtCO2e greater than various previous estimates, and larger than the total annual emissions of any country except China.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, and Green Technology
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Global Focus