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7841. Turkey’s Eurasian ambitions at a time of geopolitical uncertainty

Author:
Sinem Adar
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Russia’s increasingly salient weaknesses in its war against Ukraine have unsettled what was a delicate balance in the Southern Caucasus and Central Asia. Turkey is trying to reap the benefits of this unsettled situation by further intensifying cooperation with a region that it has long considered kin to itself due to linguistic and cultural affinities. These efforts dovetail with rehabilitation attempts of an ever-worsening Turkish economy in the face of an upcoming election in 2023 of historical decisiveness. Beyond these immediate triggers, lurking underneath Ankara’s renewed interest in the region is the post-Cold War strategic ambition to position Turkey as a logistics and energy hub connecting Europe and Asia. Yet skepticism within Europe over Ankara’s strategic orientation at a time of intense geopolitical confrontation and competition abounds. As such, it is necessary to soberly think about Turkey’s place within an emerging Eurasian space and the costs and benefits of engaging with Turkey.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, Geopolitics, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, and Middle East

7842. The rise of mega-regions

Author:
Zachary Paikan, Ilke Toygür, Martin Quencez, and Stephen R. Nagy
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
For the past several years, two ‘mega-regions’ have been forming in global politics – Eurasia and the Indo-Pacific. Both have become a shorthand for shaping the future rules and norms of international order in the face of a global power shift. ‘Eurasia’ has served to illustrate Moscow’s commitment to deepening its strategic partnership with Beijing and creating a new distribution of influence in world politics – one in which the West lies at the periphery rather than the centre. Meanwhile, the term ‘Indo-Pacific’ has taken off in response to the deepening Sino-American rivalry and (disputed) assertions of a budding global contest between democracies and autocracies. This CEPS In-Depth Analysis paper offers an overview of these two mega-regions, including the key geopolitical and governance questions that have been shaping them over recent years and whether great power dynamics in these theatres have shifted since the start of the Ukraine War. It concludes with observations on how these shifts stand to structure transatlantic relations beyond the horizon of the current war.
Topic:
Partnerships, Geopolitics, Alliance, Transatlantic Relations, and International Order
Political Geography:
Eurasia and Indo-Pacific

7843. Can we ever build a common European home? The perils and promise of an old idea

Author:
Zachary Paikin and Michael Kimmage
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
In the late 1980s and early 1990s, the idea of a ‘common European home’ inspired many different political leaders. This idea has now crumbled amid Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine. Historians will long debate what went wrong. For now, the West will have little choice but to inhabit a continental security context based on deterrence rather than romantic visions and shared identities. But Western governments should also not give up on the more flexible, accepting approach to European security and integration that animated the 1990s. The EU granting candidate status to Ukraine last June was a landmark event. But the EU cannot have an effective strategy for Ukraine without also having a strategy for Russia. Even with the continent afflicted by war, the aspiration of a common European home must not be discarded. This CEPS Explainer evaluates the principal lessons of the Ukraine War for European security and outlines a pathway to putting the continent back on the road towards a more inclusive order.
Topic:
Security, European Union, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe

7844. Which kind of realism should drive Western support for Ukraine?

Author:
Henrik Larsen
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Realist foreign-policy pundits have become synonymous with ‘neorealists’, who prefer a negotiated end to the Russia-Ukraine war to restore stability to the relationship between great powers in the international system. However, realism cannot be treated as a monolithic theory of international relations. It includes also ‘classical realism’, which derives state conduct from domestic politics rather than international structure. This CEPS Explainer highlights several qualitative insights about the war derived from classical realism, which seem more relevant to the conduct of Western foreign policy. These insights make a convincing case for continuing and perhaps increasing the military support to enable Ukraine to liberate further territory. The first is the acknowledgement that the Western nations have a significant interest in enforcing the principle of non-aggression and restore deterrence to the European security system, which Russia seeks to overthrow. The second insight is into the psychology of the Kremlin’s escalation potential, which depends on the Russian people’s willingness to sacrifice and on diplomatic pressure exerted by China (and India). The third is that the military investment in Ukraine pays off with very high dividends and with the degradation of Russia’s fighting power as an additional benefit to NATO.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Realism, International System, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

7845. Taking the road away from Europe – how far could Georgia go (and can it be reversed)?

Author:
Ghia Nodia
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Earlier this year, as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Moldova and Ukraine were granted official EU candidate status… but not Georgia. Instead, Georgia has been left behind on the waiting list, with its application due to be reevaluated by the EU sometime in 2023. Yet Georgia has an extremely pro-European society highly in favour of their country continuing its journey towards closer integration with the EU. So what happened? This CEPS Explainer argues that the ruling Georgian Dream party’s anti-Western rhetoric and democratic backsliding has actually diverted Georgia down a road away from its key Western allies. Until this is rectified, Georgia may be stuck on the waiting list for some time yet. But all hope is not lost – regardless of the government’s current actions and contradictory statements, Georgia’s highly active and pro-European civil society may hold the key in getting their country back on track towards its European future.
Topic:
European Union, Regional Politics, Democratic Backsliding, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Eurasia, and Georgia

7846. Understanding Russia’s perception of international agency in the context of the war against Ukraine

Author:
Andrey Makarychev
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has dominated international politics in 2022 and this looks likely to continue for the foreseeable future. But how did we get to this point in the first place? The core argument presented here is that Russian foreign policy agency – the intention and the ability to act as transgressor and challenger to the liberal international order, defined as the space for norms-based multilateralism – played the key role in the full-fledged restart of the war in Ukraine in February 2022. Taking a critical look at the five pillars of Russian agency, this inaugural CEPS Explainer concludes that the current model of Russia’s international agency is a precarious and vulnerable construct that is unlikely to survive the regime currently sat in the Kremlin.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Multilateralism, International Order, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

7847. Odisea Demográfica. Tendencias demográficas en Argentina: insumos clave para el diseño del bienestar social

Author:
Rafael Rofman, Carola Della Paolera, Juan Camisassa, and Emanuel López Méndez
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for the Implementation of Public Policies for Equity and Growth (CIPPEC)
Abstract:
En los últimos 30 años, aún en períodos de crecimiento económico, Argentina no ha logrado reducir la incidencia de la pobreza por debajo del 25%. En otras palabras, durante las últimas tres décadas, siempre hubo al menos un cuarto de la población que vivió en la pobreza. La pobreza implica vulneraciones en múltiples dimensiones (ingresos, educación, vivienda, etc.) y una política efectiva enfocada en este desafío demanda la adopción de medidas en diversos campos, como la macroeconomía, los mercados de trabajo, la educación, el cuidado y otras políticas sociales. Habitualmente, en Argentina, estos temas son debatidos con un foco marcado en encontrar soluciones de corto plazo a los problemas, lo que dificulta cristalizar mejoras significativas y sostenibles. A esto se suma el hecho de que es habitual que una dimensión tan relevante como las anteriores sea ignorada: la dinámica demográfica. La evolución de la población, en tamaño y estructura etaria, es un factor determinante en las tendencias de mediano y largo plazo, tanto en lo que refiere a las posibilidades de desarrollo económico como a las condiciones de bienestar social, la equidad y la incidencia de pobreza. Este documento analiza los recientes cambios demográficos en Argentina para enfatizar el rol que tiene la demografía en las perspectivas económicas y sociales del país, respondiendo a cuatro preguntas: ¿de dónde venimos?, ¿por qué cambió la tendencia en la fecundidad en el último quinquenio y qué significa esto para la reducción de la pobreza?, ¿en dónde estamos hoy? y ¿hacia dónde vamos?
Topic:
Demographics, Development, Poverty, Society, Well-Being, and Protection
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

7848. Pakistan's Climate, Economic, and Political Crises

Author:
Syed Mohammed Ali, Elizabeth Threlkeld, and Arif Rafiq
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Relentless floods in Pakistan have resulted in thousands of deaths, widespread displacement, and economic devastation. Today, we discuss these impacts as well as Pakistan's broader economic and climate change challenges, the ongoing political crisis, and developments on the foreign policy front. Joining us today are Syed Mohammad Ali, Elizabeth Threlkeld, and Arif Rafiq. Mohammed Ali is a non-resident scholar with MEI’s Afghanistan and Pakistan Program and a weekly columnist for Pakistan’s Express Tribune. Elizabeth is a Senior Fellow and Director of the South Asia Program at the Stimson Center. She previously served as a Foreign Service Officer with the U.S. Department of State in Pakistan in Islamabad and Peshawar. Arif is the president of Vizier Consulting, a political risk advisory company focused on the Middle East and South Asia. He’s also a non-resident scholar with MEI’s Afghanistan and Pakistan Program.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Natural Disasters, Economy, Displacement, and Flood
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

7849. The Biden Administration’s National Security Strategy

Author:
Alistair Taylor, Ross Harrison, Jerry Feierstein, and Marwa Maziad
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
The Biden Administration's National Security Strategy has drawn some criticism for its relatively late release, but what of its actual substance? Today, Alistair Taylor talks with four experts, each with unique insights into the context and strategy of this document with regards to the Middle East, North Africa, and American foreign policy at large. Our first guest is Ross Harrison, a Senior Fellow and Director of Research at the Middle East Institute, and a Professor of Political Science at the University of Pittsburgh. Our second guest is Jerry Feierstein, Distinguished Senior Fellow on U.S. Diplomacy and Director of MEI’s Arabian Peninsula Affairs Program. We are then joined by Dr. Marwa Maziad, a Non-Resident Scholar with MEI's Defense and Security Program and a Visiting Assistant Professor of Israel Studies at the Gildenhorn Institute at the University of Maryland. Our final guest is Melissa Horvath, a Non-Resident Scholar with MEI’s Defense and Security Program and the lead Foreign Military Sales Instructor and Curriculum Developer at ASRC Federal.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, National Security, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:
Middle East, North America, and United States of America

7850. Russia’s War on Ukraine: Iran’s Growing Role and the Nuclear Threat

Author:
Alistair Taylor, Philip Breedlove, and Iulia-sabina Joja
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
In today's episode, Alistair Taylor sits down with experts from MEI's Frontier Europe Initiative to assess the trajectory of Russia's war on Ukraine. They discuss Russia’s growing attacks on critical infrastructure, its recent deployment of Iranian drones and their impact on the battlefield, the potential nuclear threat, and where things might be headed from here. Today's guests are General Philip Breedlove and Iulia-Sabina Joja. General Breedlove is a retired United States Air Force General who served as Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) and Commander of U.S. European Command. He’s the Distinguished Chair of MEI’s Frontier Europe Initiative and a Distinguished Professor at the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at Georgia Tech. Iulia is a Senior Fellow and Director of MEI's Frontier Europe Initiative and Director of its "Afghanistan Watch" project. She teaches courses on European security at Georgetown and George Washington universities.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Infrastructure, Weapons, Drones, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Ukraine, Middle East, and Eastern Europe

7851. COP 27: Ask the Experts with Mohammed Mahmoud

Author:
Mohammed Mahmoud, Andrei Covatariu, Athraa Khamis, Malak Altaeb, Megan Ferrando, Orestes Morfin, and Youssef Wehbe
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
With Egypt hosting COP 27 this week, all eyes are on climate change in the MENA region. For today's episode, Senior Fellow and Director of the Climate and Water Program Mohammed Mahmoud asked several of MEI's Climate and Water Program scholars what they consider to be the most pressing issues regarding climate change, water resources, and the environment. Today's guests include Andrei Covatariu, Athraa Khamis, Malak Altaeb, Megan Ferrando, Orestes Morfin, and Youssef Wehbe.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Natural Resources, and Water
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt

7852. Iran’s Protests 3 Months On

Author:
Alistair Taylor and Alex Vatanka
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Now entering their fourth month of defiance, the people of Iran continue to protest the regime of Ali Khamenei. Since protests began in September, the crackdown by security forces has become increasingly severe and the government has now begun executing protesters. According to figures from the Human Rights Activists News Agency, as of Dec. 15, nearly 500 protesters have been killed and almost 20,000 people have been arrested. Despite the risks, Iran's astonishingly brave protesters continue to call for the fall of the regime. For an update on the situation and an eye towards the future, host Alistair Taylor turns to Alex Vatanka, founding Director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute.
Topic:
Human Rights, Social Movement, and Protests
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

7853. Pakistan's Political Crisis

Author:
Marvin G. Weinbaum, Madiha Afzal, and Syed Mohammed Ali
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Marvin Weinbaum, Madiha Afzal, and Syed Mohammad Ali discuss the recent political upheaval in Pakistan, which comes against the backdrop of mounting economic problems.
Topic:
Economics, Domestic Politics, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

7854. Ethiopia (Horn of Africa, part 1 of 2)

Author:
Nathenael Gemechu, Michael Woldemariam, and Guled Ahmed
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Nathenael Gemechu moderates a conversation with Michael Woldemariam and Guled Ahmed on Ethiopia in the first installment of a two-part series on the Horn of Africa. Woldemariam and Ahmed discuss the ongoing Tigrayan conflict that includes Ethiopia and Eritrea and the influence of external players.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Crisis Management, Armed Conflict, and Influence
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Horn of Africa, and Tigray

7855. Expedition to Antarctica

Author:
Mohammed Mahmoud and Athraa Khamis
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
In this interview from MEI's Climate and Water program, guest host Mohammed Mahmoud speaks with Athra Khamis about her journey to the remote continent of Antarctica, what she saw there, and how it impacted her views on climate change.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, and Water
Political Geography:
Antarctica

7856. Somalia (Horn of Africa, part 2 of 2)

Author:
Guled Ahmed
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Guled Ahmed joins the program to discuss the political climate in Somalia, its recent elections, security conditions, and the role of external actors including the African Union, Gulf states, Turkey, and the U.S.
Topic:
Security, Politics, Elections, and African Union
Political Geography:
Africa, Turkey, Somalia, United States of America, Gulf Nations, and Horn of Africa

7857. MEI-NAPI Roundtable on the Environment in Tunisia: A Youth Perspective On Challenges & Opportunities

Author:
Intissar Fakir, Fatine Ezbakhe, Marouen Taleb, Abir Ben Romdhane, and Mohamed Walid Jomni
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
The Middle East Institute (MEI) and the North African Policy Initiative (NAPI) are pleased to announce the sixth in a series of roundtable discussions inviting engaged youth to share their perspectives on the key issues facing their country’s future. This policy-oriented discussion will feature young Tunisian researchers offering their views on the current environmental challenges in their country and the opportunities ahead. Tunisia is already facing the reality of climate change. From the degradation of natural resources and water scarcity to desertification and coastal erosion, the country has to cope with complex and interconnected environmental challenges. While Tunisia has put the environment on top of its political and economic agenda (with Article 45 of its Constitution acknowledging the “right to a healthy and balanced environment and the right to participate in the protection of the climate”), there is still room to do more.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Environment, Politics, Natural Resources, Water, and Desertification
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Tunisia

7858. Area Studies, the Cold War, and the History of the US Academic Library Collections

Author:
Michael Albin, Ryan Zohair, Joan Weeks, and William Kopycki
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
This panel brings together Middle East Studies librarians to discuss how Cold War-era programs like the Food for Peace Act, whose revenues supported the Library of Congress' foreign offices in the Middle East, functioned and contributed to foreign language acquisitions in the U.S., and how they continue to shape how knowledge is produced on the region within American academia.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Cold War, History, Academia, Area Studies, and Libraries
Political Geography:
Middle East, North America, and United States of America

7859. Iraq's Political Shift

Author:
Randa Slim, Farhad Alaadin, and Marsin Alshamary
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Randa Slim is joined by Farhad Alaadin and Marsin Alshamary to discuss the latest political events in Iraqi Parliament, Muqtada al-Sadr, and what the future of Iraqi politics could look like moving forward.
Topic:
Politics, Domestic Politics, Muqtada al-Sadr, and Parliament
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

7860. Tunisia's Economy

Author:
Intissar Fakir, Marwa Haddar, and Fadil Aliriza
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Intissar Fakir is joined by Marwa Haddar and Fadil Aliriza to discuss the economic issues Tunisia is facing, international financial institutions' role in the crisis, and the government's actions, or lack thereof, to help the country.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Finance, International Institutions, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
North Africa and Tunisia