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171. Strengthening Project Vault: The US plan to stockpile critical minerals

Author:
Cullen S. Hendrix
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
The United States depends heavily on imported critical minerals, including rare earth elements, needed for semiconductors, renewable energy, AI expansion, and defense systems. Because supply disruptions could seriously harm the economy and national security, the US government has launched Project Vault, a $12 billion public-private program to stockpile emergency supplies of critical minerals. Funded by a $10 billion EXIM Bank loan and $2 billion in private capital, the project is aimed at reducing reliance on foreign suppliers, particularly China, and protecting American—and eventually allied-country—manufacturers from shortages. Project Vault’s design, however, raises important questions about its durability and day-to-day operations.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Commodities, Artificial Intelligence, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

172. Climate Governance Through a Justice Lens in Bangladesh

Author:
International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Abstract:
This policy brief draws lessons from the Governance for Climate Resilience (G4CR) initiative in coastal Bangladesh , showing that nature-based solutions work best when combined with inclusive governance and locally led adaptation. Evidence from Munshiganj Union, Shyamnagar highlights how restoring canals as climate-resilience commons can improve freshwater access, support agriculture, revive ecosystems, and strengthen community resilience while addressing unequal power dynamics and elite capture of resources.
Topic:
Climate Change, Justice, Resilience, and Climate Governance
Political Geography:
Bangladesh and South Asia

173. Legacy of apartheid: Misallocation of labour and firm productivity

Author:
Talent Nesongano, Carol Newman, John Rand, and Marvin Suesse
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper investigates the extent to which the historical legacy of apartheid laws explains contemporary misallocation and firm productivity in South Africa. During the apartheid era (1948–1994), job reservations, closed-shop agreements, and minimum-wage policies were implemented to restrict occupational mobility for Black workers and to insulate White employees from competition. Using digitized historical data from government gazettes combined with contemporary employer-employee panel data, we identify sectors and districts where these restrictions applied and find persistent impacts on labour allocation today. Results show that historically restricted sector-district pairs exhibit between 4 and 14% more labour misallocation compared to unaffected counterparts. In contrast, we find no significant differences in average firm productivity in treated cells, suggesting that apartheid’s legacy on production persists primarily through allocative inefficiencies rather than observable differences in average firm efficiency. These findings underscore the persistent influence of discriminatory institutions on market efficiency and highlight the importance of policies aimed at correcting historical distortions in labour allocation.
Topic:
Apartheid, Labor Issues, Discrimination, Productivity, Racism, Firms, and Persistence
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

174. Beyond the state, but reinforcing it? Informal tax institutions and state legitimacy in the Democratic Republic of Congo

Author:
Vanessa van den Boogaard, Yannick Lokaya Bokasola, Gayatri Sahgal, and Caleb Jérémie Dohou
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper explores the role of informal taxation in the Democratic Republic of Congo and aims to shed light on informal fiscal realities and the implications of informal tax institutions for governance and state legitimacy. Relying on mixed-methods data from household surveys, interviews, and focus group discussions across Kinshasa and North Kivu, it focuses on three areas of inquiry: the nature of informal taxation; citizens’ perceptions of formal and informal taxing authorities; and the impact of informal taxation on perceptions of the state’s legitimacy. The paper finds that, while informal taxes place a significant burden on citizens, they may support local governance by supplementing public services and reinforcing perceptions of state legitimacy, particularly in the case of customary contributions. Overall, these findings highlight the complex interplay between informal and formal institutions, challenging assumptions that informal taxation solely undermines state authority. Its insights hold critical implications for scholars of informal governance and policy makers aiming to navigate hybrid governance structures in fragile states.
Topic:
Governance, Tax Systems, Legitimacy, and Statebuilding
Political Geography:
Africa and Democratic Republic of Congo

175. Climate shocks, labour market dynamics, and inequality in South Africa: Evidence from administrative tax data

Author:
Safa Awaworyi Churchill, Yohannes Kefale Mogess, and Yuvana Jaichand
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of temperature shocks on individual earnings and income inequality in South Africa. We leverage high-resolution satellite temperature data, merged with administrative tax records from the South African National Treasury and UNU-WIDER. Data from 2009 to 2022 shows that temperature shocks significantly reduce income, with a one-standard-deviation increase in average temperature associated with a 1 per cent decline in earnings and a 1.3 per cent decline in total income. However, we observe no statistically significant effects on income inequality. Temperature projections from the most recent climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are used to simulate the impact of global warming on income in the short, medium, and long term. By 2100, income is projected to decline by 5 per cent without mitigation and adaptation strategies, relative to a ‘best case’ scenario characterized by widespread adoption of renewable energy and climate change mitigation.
Topic:
Climate Change, Inequality, Labor Market, Income, Temperature, and Rainfall
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

176. Social protection in South Africa

Author:
Haroon Bhorat and Morné Oosthuizen
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
South Africa has a relatively well-developed social protection system for a middle-income country. Despite its roots in the country’s racially discriminatory past, the system has been repurposed post-apartheid to address deep poverty and severe inequality. This paper explores key characteristics of the current social protection system, highlighting its large scale and reach. Given high unemployment, the scope of social insurance is relatively limited and the social protection system is largely geared toward s social assistance. Social assistance is well-targeted and has been found to have significant beneficial impacts on poverty and inequality, but also various other socioeconomic outcomes. A key gap in the formal social assistance system is the working-age population: able-bodied working-age adults are covered only by the COVID-19 social relief of distress grant, the introduction of which has reignited calls for the implementation of basic income support despite South Africa’s significantly constrained fiscal environment.
Topic:
Poverty, Fiscal Policy, Cash Transfers, Social Assistance, and Social Protection
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

177. Gender and intergenerational mobility: Unequal economic outcomes between siblings

Author:
Martín Leites and Joan Vilá
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper examines the role of sibling sex composition as a potential explanation of the transmission of parental advantages to the next generation. The presence of a brother affects the family environment and parents’ decisions, influencing the siblings’ labour market outcomes in the long term. The results show a negative effect of approximately 2% on the permanent income of women for the presence of a younger brother. This effect does not modify the intergenerational persistence of income. Regarding mechanisms, we find evidence that the effect is amplified when households face tighter budget constraints. Moreover, it is more pronounced in households with traditional gender norms, shaping permanent income, educational choices, and motherhood decisions. These findings underscore the importance of sociocultural mechanisms in accounting for the persistence of inequality.
Topic:
Occupation, Gender Norms, Social Mobility, Gender Wage Gap, Sibling Sex Composition, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
Global Focus

178. Social protection in Egypt

Author:
Ragui Assaad and Irene Selwaness
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The paper examines the structure of the social protection system in Egypt including its contributory and non-contributory components. It begins by examining the historical evolution of the system, its scale and reach, and its sources of financing. The book then assesses the de jure and de facto coverage of the system and the adequacy of payments for different kinds of workers and socio-economic groups. We end by examining the effectiveness of existing institutions in delivering social protection in light of the limited implementation capacity of the state, the incentive of firms to operate in the formal economy, and the potential tensions between individual participation in contributory social insurance and access to noncontributory social assistance.
Topic:
Institutions, Incentives, Social Protection, and Contributory Schemes
Political Geography:
Middle East and Egypt

179. Countering Russian escalation in space

Author:
John Klein and Clementine G. Starling-Daniels
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
This report’s findings are meant to guide policymakers in making important decisions about safety, security, and sustainability in the space domain, as well as to better inform the public on these issues. The report explains why current US space policy, Department of Defense (DOD) acquisition programs, and commercial integration strategies by themselves are inadequate to address the growing threats from Russia in space. The report makes the case for the development of policies, practical strategies, and more effective acquisition programs to better address a range of potential futures, considering possible space-related actions by Russia’s political leadership. Beyond recommending changes to US declaratory policy, this report details why the United States needs a more resilient space architecture. It examines how Russia’s nuclear threat—specifically, its designs to place a nuclear weapon in orbit, in clear violation of its obligations under international law—could alter the rationale for pursuing proliferated low-Earth orbit (LEO) constellations. This report also explores the kind of space architecture the United States would need during a conflict against a major power, and how the United States can further integrate the private sector and allies in pursuit of its national security objectives. Each of these issues carries significant near-term policy and acquisition implications. This report explains why some US policymakers might be reluctant to take the necessary coercive action to compel acquiescence by Russian political and military leaders. This reluctance is driven by a Western sense of morality and “rightness,” an inherent right of self-defense mentality, and current conceptions of international humanitarian law. US anticipatory actions seeking to deter Russian malicious actions might prove unreliable because any anticipatory action will be a political decision based upon a Western mindset and worldview. This observation underscores that deterrence by denial of benefit—including resilience and active defense—should play a substantial role in military strategies, one even more substantial than cost-imposition efforts. Additionally, assurance and reassurance efforts directed toward Chinese and Indian leadership could help dissuade potential Russian aggressive behavior and deescalate crises. This report’s analysis illuminates important defense and force planning considerations. Its three scenarios span a catastrophic nuclear detonation (NUDET) in LEO to debris-generating anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons to less aggressive action against commercial satellites. A qualitative assessment using a detailed framework highlights the relative importance of the methods used to dissuade potential aggression while also prevailing in conflict. In priority order, the relative importance of affecting Russian leadership’s decision calculus is: deterrence by denial of benefit; assurance and reassurance; and deterrence by cost imposition. Finally, this report provides fifteen actionable policy and defense acquisition recommendations for advancing a comprehensive and practical framework to counter potential Russian aggression and escalation in space. Should dissuasion efforts fail and conflict in space occur, it is necessary that the United States, its allies, and commercial partners fight through Russia’s irresponsible and aggressive actions in space, while working to deescalate any crisis and seek a lasting peace.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Missile Defense, Deterrence, and Space Security
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Eurasia, and United States of America

180. From alignment to action: Building a durable US-Argentina critical minerals partnership

Author:
Reed Blakemore, Alexis Harmon, and Ignacio Albe
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
For decades, Argentina has been viewed as a mining opportunity that never quite materialized. Now, Argentina’s mining sector is evolving from a speculative frontier to an active, contested space—one where the United States has a clear opportunity. Both countries are confronting different sides of the same challenge. Argentina must translate its mineral wealth into sustained investment and economic growth, while the United States must secure reliable external sources of the materials its economy increasingly depends on. Where these needs intersect, a strategic opportunity is emerging. This report examines Argentina at an inflection point. After decades of policy volatility and stalled development, recent reforms under President Javier Milei, including the Incentive Regime for Large Investments (RIGI), are beginning to shift investor sentiment. At the same time, Argentina has signaled clear interest in deepening ties with the United States, including through a new bilateral framework that prioritizes critical minerals cooperation. Yet this opportunity is not guaranteed. Infrastructure gaps, energy constraints, and complex provincial dynamics continue to shape project development. Meanwhile, ownership structures and supply chain relationships for lithium and copper are being set now in ways that will influence market alignment for decades. Against this backdrop, Argentina is a critical test case for US economic engagement in regional mineral supply chains. This report outlines how coordinated deployment of US policy and financing tools can help unlock investment while supporting Argentina’s development priorities, including infrastructure expansion and greater local value creation. Ultimately, the case for deeper US–Argentina cooperation is grounded in mutual benefit. For Argentina, it offers a pathway to convert mineral wealth into durable growth. For the United States, it provides access to essential inputs, expanded commercial opportunities, and a chance to demonstrate that its long-term partnerships can deliver.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Economic Growth, Mining, Energy, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:
Argentina, South America, North America, and United States of America