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8801. A Congruous Multilateral Security Framework? Searching for an Asian Democratic Partnerships

Author:
Jagannath P. Panda
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Along with the rise of geopolitical competition within the region, there have been upcoming threats toward Asian democracy such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. Dr. Jagannath Panda, Head of the Stockholm Center for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs, discusses how the Russian-Ukraine war reveals the lack of integrity and unity among Asian democratic countries, as each states displays different attitude towards the sanctions against Russia. He considers Russian-Ukraine war as an example of how an autocratic power can undermine the international liberal order and violate the inherent democratic principles. While the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) has the potential to develop into a broader multilateral security framework and a countermeasure towards autocratic countries in the region, Dr. Panda stresses that the search for an effective democratic partnership driven by Asian states such as a new Regional Cooperation and Integration (RCI) should be ongoing in order to reinforce the resilience of smaller democratic states and counterbalance the influence of autocratic states in the region.
Topic:
Security, Partnerships, Democracy, Multilateralism, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Asia

8802. Elite Polarization in South Korea: Evidence from a Natural Language Processing Model

Author:
Seungwoo Han
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Political polarization in elite politics of South Korea has remained a serious issue in the past decade. Seungwoo Han, Adjunct Lecturer at the Rutgers, the State University of New Jersey, examines the development of political polarization in the National Assembly by analyzing the political language and expressions used in the subcommittee meeting minutes through natural language processing. The result demonstrates that while the political polarization has waxed and waned over time, a surge in polarization was spotted during the 20th National Assembly. Han attributes the intensification of polarization to the impeachment of President Park Geun-hye and the following Moon Jae-in government’s attempt to correct the injustice of the mischief of previous governments. Author also warns that severe political polarization can only lead to a deadlock in legislative decisions, thus neglecting the need of citizens in important matters irrelevant of ideological dichotomy.
Topic:
Democracy, Polarization, and Natural Language Processing
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

8803. State of Minority Rights in Asia: Trends from India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Mongolia and Thailand

Author:
Niranjan Sahoo
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
In this issue briefing, Dr. Niranjan Sahoo, Senior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi, provides an analysis of five countries across Asia on the worrying trend in the erosion of civil liberties of minorities in recent years. In the case of India, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Mongolia, he first identifies how the existence of legal and constitutional provisions to protect minorities was only nominal in nature. Minorities have suffered from a lack of civil and political representation, and have faced restrictions on their religious freedoms in practice. He also points out the limited influence of global human rights actors due to a lack of coherent and sustained pressure. Sahoo, while noting the successes of Thailand’s LGBTQ rights, concludes that the inability and apathy of state institutions, lack of resources, and majoritarian politics, provide a bleak projection of the state of minority rights.
Topic:
Human Rights, Religion, Minorities, Democracy, and Civil Liberties
Political Geography:
Bangladesh, India, Mongolia, Asia, Nepal, and Thailand

8804. Direct Democracy: Changing Contexts and Trends in Asia

Author:
Francisco A. Magno
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
In this issue briefing, Dr. Francisco A. Magno, Director of the Jesse M. Robredo Institute of Governance at De La Salle University, provides an overview and analysis of the seven country case studies included in ADRN’s Working Paper Series on Direct Democracy in Asia. Magno highlights the disparity between theoretical legal frameworks for direct democracy and the actual implementation of said initiatives across three categories of democratic mechanisms: formal direct democratic mechanisms, namely referendums, recalls, and petitions; participatory planning and budgeting mechanisms; and platforms for digital citizen engagement. He concludes that, though new trends in formal and informal citizen participation are promising, direct democracy is being stifled by the dominance of existing representative democratic systems and officials, and the participation of civil society in governance is often only nominal in nature. Asian democracies will need to achieve a better balance between representative and direct democracy if they aim to genuinely pursue democratic ideals.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Democracy, Accountability, Participation, and Direct Democracy
Political Geography:
Asia

8805. Responding to the Looming Food Crisis and Managing Political Stability in Indonesia

Author:
Bustanul Arifin and Maria Monica Wihardja
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
In this issue briefing, Dr. Bustanul Arifin, Professor of Agricultural Economics at Lampung University, and Dr. Maria Monica Wihardja, Economist and Visiting Fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, analyze the impending food crisis in Indonesia. First, they provide an overview of the global food economy and the factors affecting food price inflation in Indonesia, including COVID-19, the war in Ukraine, and rising oil and gas prices. Then, they discuss the policy measures Indonesia has adopted to bolster food security, which include initiatives to increase agricultural production and address problems at all levels of the distribution chain, including creating social welfare programs to expand food access. Looking to the future, the authors argue that protectionist and isolationist policies like import/export bans are counterproductive. Rather, food supply chains should be considered a global public good; international cooperation on protective mechanisms like global and regional food buffer stocks can help to ward off crises when unexpected disruptions in the food supply chain occur.
Topic:
Democracy, Economy, Political stability, and Food Crisis
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

8806. Divining the North Korean Nuclear Problem in a Multipolar World

Author:
Taesuh Cha
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
China and Russia vetoed U.N. Security Council draft resolution condemning North Korea's missile crossing the Northern Limit Line. Taesuh Cha, Professor at Sungkyunkwan University, claims that this signifies that great power competition will ultimately shape the trajectory of the North Korean nuclear problem. He expects that North Korea will highly likely continue its provocative behavior with confidence, given its political backing from China and Russia. As the evolving strategic conditions make the prospect of denuclearization much dimmer than they already are, Dr. Cha highlights the need to observe Washington's new approach to the North Korean issue, instead of pursuing a policy of strategic patience toward North Korea.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Denuclearization, and Multipolarity
Political Geography:
Asia and North Korea

8807. A Decade Under the Millennial Supreme Leader Kim Jong-Un

Author:
Jeong Won Na
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Jeong Won Na, a researcher at Seoul Pyongyang News depicts Kim Jong-un as a trend-sensitive and adventurous leader and provides an overview of the recent changes in North Korea. He states that the symbolic importance of Kim Il-Sung and Kim Jong-il has been visibly reduced as Kimilsungia and Kimjongillia flowers disappeared after 2019 and the virtues of patriotism and nationalism have been brought forward as their substitutes. In addition, Dr. Na views that supreme leader Kim has been aiming to improve the regime durability by actively restoring a party-centered management structure, given that important policies have actually been decided during Party sessions ever since the 7th Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea was reconvened in May 2016.
Topic:
Nationalism, Authoritarianism, Domestic Politics, Kim Jong-un, and Regime Durability
Political Geography:
Asia and North Korea

8808. The Russia-Ukraine War and North Korea-Russia Relations

Author:
Seung-soo Hyun
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
What is the impact of the war in Ukraine on North Korea’s unprecedented military provocations? Seung-soo Hyun, a research fellow at Korea Institute for National Unification, points out that Moscow’s defense of Pyongyang at the UN Security Council has emboldened North Korea. However, considering the low economic compatibility between the two countries and tight international sanctions against Russia after it invaded Ukraine, the bilateral economic cooperation would hardly help Pyongyang to develop its economy. Dr. Hyun claims that conflicts between Northeast Asian countries show signs of polarization and highlights the importance of monitoring how the war in Ukraine will reshape global strategic dynamics among Russia, China, and the U.S.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Economic Cooperation, Denuclearization, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and North Korea

8809. Foreign Policy Recharged after Defusing MAGA: Biden’s Indo-Pacific Strategy and the Korean Peninsula

Author:
Byoung Kwon Sohn
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Byoung Kwon Sohn, Professor at Chung-Ang University, predicts that the Biden administration will likely stick to its stance on foreign policy, with the Senate secure in Democratic hands and the inter-party House seat margin found to be smaller than expected. Encountering the recent escalation in North Korea, he claims that Washington will keep the Korea-U.S.-Japan trilateral security cooperation in place and strengthen its commitment to extended deterrence to its two Asian allies. Professor Sohn also highlights that the United States will continue to pursue its current Indo-Pacific strategy to contain Chinese influence in the region whilst attempting to maintain the status quo in the Taiwan Strait.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Domestic Politics, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Indo-Pacific

8810. The Future of U.S.-North Korea Relations After the 2022 U.S. Midterm Elections

Author:
Jungkun Seo
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Jungkun Seo, Professor at Kyung Hee University, claims that with the results of the midterm elections in favor of Biden and the Democrats, Biden could likely run for re-election. Added to this, he expects that there will be no innovative strategy to tackle North Korea as Biden would have no choice but to take a hardline stance ahead of the 2024 election if North Korea's provocations make a prominent security threat to the United States. Professor Seo emphasizes that it will be extremely difficult for the U.S. to find a new breakthrough to the stalled peace process on the Korean Peninsula.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Elections
Political Geography:
Asia, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

8811. Global Health Diplomacy as a Path to De-escalatory Engagement with North Korea

Author:
Andrew Ikhyun Kim
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Andrew Ikhyun Kim, White House Fellow at the Office of Management and Budget, suggests global health diplomacy as a conceptual framework to bring North Korea back to the negotiating table and de-escalate the situation. In specific, he proposes a health aid package engaging North Korea in the long term which is owned, driven, co-financed by North Korea, and coordinated with strategically lifting without precondition, the sanctions. He highlights that even if these do not come to fruition in the short term, aid efforts would still have the potential to build trust, lay the groundwork for future engagement, and alleviate the dire health needs of North Korean people.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, Health, and Engagement
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

8812. The Biden Administration’s Economic Security Policies and ROK-U.S. Relations

Author:
Wang Hwi Lee
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Wang Hwi Lee, Professor at Ajou University, claims that United States’ move to exclude China from global supply chains will likely benefit Korean semiconductor and secondary battery businesses as Beijing’s aggressive push to become a world leader in high-tech industries poses a systemic threat to Korea. However, it is difficult for South Korea to drastically lower its economic dependence on the Chinese market to the level that the U.S. government desires, and thus not to be eligible for subsidies that the U.S. government provides. In this regard, Professor Lee points out that Korean firms are about to lose their share and returns in both the American and Chinese markets in the short run. Yet, he also emphasizes that economic tension between Seoul and Washington must not affect their military alliance, given that the security threats from North Korea are getting intensified.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Supply Chains, Economic Security, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:
South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America

8813. China Under Xi Jinping’s One-Man Rule

Author:
Young Nam Cho
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Young Nam Cho, Professor at Seoul National University, claims that Xi Jinping’s third consecutive term breaks a decades-long practice regarding party leadership in China, which would increase political uncertainty, hinder innovation, pose challenges to future succession and have negative implications for China’s elite politics. While all the members of the Central Committee Politburo filled with Xi’s loyalists, no amendments have been made to the constitution related to the collective leadership and consensus-based decision-making process. Professor Cho emphasizes that this would continue to pose limitations on the personalistic rule by Xi Jinping in the future.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Leadership, Xi Jinping, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:
China, East Asia, and Asia

8814. Analysis of North Korea’s Nuclear Force Policy Act: Intentions and Drawbacks

Author:
Ildo Hwang
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Recently promulgated “Law on DPRK’s Policy on Nuclear Forces” reveals North Korea’s intention to use nuclear weapons in a war-fighting capacity. Ildo Hwang, Associate Professor of Korea National Diplomatic Academy, points out the similarities between North Korea’s nuclear policy and Russian 2020 Basic Principles of State Policy on Nuclear Deterrence and the possibility of Pyongyang’s adoption of Russia’s “escalate to de-escalate” strategy on the Korean Peninsula. However, Dr. Hwang argues that North Korea is not likely to gain any leverage through this new Policy Act, given that Pyongyang is yet to secure the Assured Retaliation capability in the eyes of Washington. Nevertheless, Dr. Hwang claims that North Korea’s attempts to lower the nuclear threshold can lead to the inadvertent use of nuclear weapons, thus jeopardizing the security of North Korea as well as the stability of Northeast Asia.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:
Asia and North Korea

8815. Analysis of Xi Jinping’s Work Report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and its Implications on Foreign Policy

Author:
Hankwon Kim
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Hankwon Kim, an Associate Professor at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security, provides an analysis of Xi Jinping's "Work Report" to the 20th Party Congress which includes an ideological and political framework for understanding the likely direction of Chinese domestic and foreign policy for the next five years. Dr. Kim claims that the chances of China shifting its foreign policy seem to be low as the report contained indirect criticisms towards the United States by opposing all forms of hegemonism, coercive politics, Cold War thinking, interference in domestic affairs, and double standards. In addition, as 2027 marks the 100th anniversary of the establishment of the People's Liberation Army of China and the time Xi Jinping should decide whether to run for a fourth consecutive term, Dr. Kim predicts that Chinese leadership could move toward armed unification by 2027. Accordingly, Dr. Kim suggests that South Korea should investigate possible future scenarios in the Taiwan Strait and prepare for concrete countermeasures.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Xi Jinping, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:
China, North Korea, and United States of America

8816. Evaluation and Suggestion on the ROK-U.S. Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group Meeting

Author:
Jungsup Kim
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Jungsup Kim, Vice President of Research and Education at the Sejong Institute, evaluates ROK-U.S. Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group (EDSCG) meeting held on September 16, 2022. He claims that the clear warning of an “overwhelming and decisive response” to any North Korean nuclear attack and Washington’s ironclad commitment to drawing on the full range of its military capabilities to provide extended deterrence for South Korea are positive outcomes. However, he indicates that they did not elaborate on how the “tailored deterrence” strategy could be applied to the Korean Peninsula. To address this issue, Dr. Kim highlights the need to institutionalize the concept of extended deterrence and suggests expanding opportunities for information sharing with the U.S., utilizing various consultative bodies to provide an effective extended nuclear deterrent, and stabilizing the crisis while responding to the North Korean nuclear threats.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

8817. The Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the DPRK-China Economic Ties and their Impact on the Korean Peninsula

Author:
Eun-lee Joung
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
In normal economies, currencies weaken in times of difficulty, but something counter-intuitive happens in North Korea. Eun-lee Joung, a research fellow at Korea Institute for National Unification claims that the value of the North Korean won appreciated, and the market prices were remarkably stable although North Korea’s economy suffered its biggest contraction during the pandemic situation. Dr. Joung states that the partial lockdown of the border between North Korea and China, and North Korea’s various changes to deal with the sanctions including the substitution of imported goods with domestic goods may have contributed to the outcome. Meanwhile, she mentions that intensifying U.S.-China strategic competition and the possibility of a prolonged conflict between Russia and Ukraine could increase North Korea’s economic reliance on China and Russia which will impede the re-establishing relations between the two Koreas. However, as the cooperation between North Korea and China in tourism has increased up before the COVID-19 outbreak, Dr. Joung highlights that Pyongyang’s tourism industry is likely to expand, which is expected to stimulate non-governmental exchange and induce North Korea toward openness.
Topic:
Economy, Currency, COVID-19, and Unification
Political Geography:
China, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

8818. The Road to Denuclearization of the DPRK: The DPRK’s Strategy and the ROK-U.S. Response Plan

Author:
Won Gon Park
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Won Gon Park, a professor at Ewha Woman’s University, appreciates that the Yoon government’s “Audacious Initiative” reaffirms the goals and methods of denuclearization. However, Dr. Park points out that Pyongyang refuses to accept President Yoon’s proposal to receive economic incentives in return for denuclearization, as DPRK has recently passed a radical law enshrining the right to automatically use preemptive nuclear strikes to protect itself. In addition, given that DPRK continues its offensive posture refusing to have any negotiations with Washington or Seoul, he highlights that South Korea and the United States should first agree on a precise definition, goals, and approaches to denuclearization.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America

8819. America’s Alliance First vs. DPRK’s “neo-Cold War” First: An Assessment on US-DPRK Relationship

Author:
Li Nan
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Li Nan, a Senior Research Fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of American Studies, criticizes the Biden administration’s North Korea policy as undermining the Korean Peninsula’s denuclearization process. Dr. Nan indicates that United States’ “alliance-first approach” puts North Korea on the opposite side of the US and closes the door to bilateral talks. And he points out that prioritizing alliance over denuclearization may hamper prospects of denuclearization as North Korea will highly likely rely on China and Russia and keep improving the conventional military system. Furthermore, he highlights the importance of effective coordination with North Korea by maintaining a favorable diplomatic conditions conducive to talks.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, Alliance, Denuclearization, and Unification
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America

8820. Reviewing 30 Years of “China’s Role” in North Korea’s Nuclear Issue

Author:
Dong Ryul Lee
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Dong Ryul Lee, Professor at the Department of Chinese Studies at Dongduk Women’s University and the Chair of the China Research Center at EAI, writes that China’s policies toward North Korea and its nuclear program has been consistent for the past 30 years, has taken caution not to pressure North Korea to the extent that would escalate instability and has played a role in easing tensions. Professor Lee highlights that Beijing actively intervened to secure its position and influence in the Korean Peninsula when significant changes to the region’s strategic landscape were made. He suggests that South Korea should seek the support of China in its North Korea policy based on the accurate understanding of China’s policy stance and the maximum degree to which South Korea can influence.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Denuclearization, and Unification
Political Geography:
China, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

8821. Tokyo’s View on the Korean Peninsula and Regional Security

Author:
Ryo Sahashi
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
In this Commentary, Ryo Sahashi, Associate Professor at the University of Tokyo, discusses North Korea’s continued military armament and nuclear proliferation and stresses the importance of ROK-U.S.-Japan cooperation in countering this threat. Specifically, Dr. Sahashi notes that the international community needs to maintain its goal of the complete denuclearization of North Korea and that Japan and South Korea, whose security are indissolubly intertwined, must first focus on building a strong partnership. He argues that the recent victory of the Liberal Democratic party and solid political base present Tokyo with an opportunity for a proactive North Korean policy, one that might include increased diplomacy with Seoul.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Denuclearization, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

8822. A Study on Humanitarian Aid to North Korea

Author:
Juhyun Um
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
In this Commentary, Juhyun Um, Secretary General at Medical Aid for Children, provides an overview of international and South Korean aid initiatives in North Korea and examines North Korea’s current perspective on humanitarian assistance. The author analyzes that Pyongyang’s official refusal of humanitarian assistance in 2014 is a multidimensional issue that encompasses the health and welfare of North Koreans, the regime’s commitment to remain self-reliant, and the new Cold War order. Dr. Um proposes that in pursuing peace on the Korean peninsula, Seoul should strive to find ways that mutually respect the interests of both Koreas rather than push for a unilateral humanitarian assistance policy.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, United Nations, Malnutrition, and Healthcare System
Political Geography:
Asia and North Korea

8823. President Yoon's Trip to Madrid: Rethinking Seoul's Policies toward Moscow, Beijing, Tokyo, and Pyongyang

Author:
Yang Gyu Kim
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
In this Commentary, Yang Gyu Kim, Principal Researcher at the East Asia Institute (EAI), explains the objectives behind the U.S.’ invitation of its key allies the Indo-Pacific to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Summit. He posits that the U.S. aims to establish a highly institutionalized cooperative mechanism that combines the capacities of existing alliances among like-minded countries in the Indo-Pacific. In this context, the author stresses the need for South Korea to address the implications of the Russia-Ukraine War, the emerging Chinese threat, and reestablish ROK-Japan relations. Lastly, Dr. Kim proposes that the administration should carefully consider how it might restore international cooperation on the North Korea issue and resume the denuclearization process.
Topic:
International Relations, NATO, Denuclearization, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

8824. The Abraham Accords - Israel and the Middle East - What Next?

Author:
Eyal Zisser
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
The signing of the Abraham Accords in September 2020 was a turning point in Israel’s standing in the Middle East. The accords created a positive atmosphere that helped promote regional cooperation in security and the economy. This positive change does not, however, provide an answer to some of the fundamental challenges that Israel is facing, which cast their shadows on the entire region, such as the Iranian threat - Tehran’s regional ambitions and its efforts to gain nuclear capabilities; but first and foremost, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which is getting further and further away from a solution, and may flare up and damage regional stability and hinder the progress in Israeli-Arab relations, which was achieved following the signing of the Abraham accords.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Peace, and Abraham Accords
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Israel

8825. As Israel Looks East, The Gulf is Both a Way Station and a Destination

Author:
Gerald M. Feiestein
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
Israelis and Gulf Arabs became closer amid shared fears of an aggressive and powerful administration in Tehran, which boasted of its influence over four Arab capitals (Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut, and Sana’a). With the signing of the Abraham Accords, states on the periphery of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict decided that the benefits of establishing relations with Israel outweighed the risks. They reasoned that if they advocated for increased coordination between Israel and the Arab world, it would increase pressure on the Palestinians to negotiate with Israel. This article focuses on the regional factors that led to the signing of the Abraham Accords and carefully reviews this important historical document.
Topic:
Security, Regional Cooperation, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

8826. The Two-State Delusion

Author:
Efraim Karsh
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
In the 85 years since the evocation of the two-state solution (i.e., a Jewish state and a Palestinian Arab state living side by side in peace and security), not a single Palestinian Arab leader has ever evinced any true liking for the idea or acted in a way signifying an unqualified embrace of it. Allowing their anti-Jewish hatred and obsession with violence to get the better of them, Palestinian leaders have repeatedly dragged their hapless constituents into disastrous conflicts that culminated in their collective undoing and continued statelessness. So long as Palestinian society does not undergo a comprehensive transformation that will sweep the corrupt and oppressive PLO and Hamas regimes from power, eliminate endemic violence from political and social life, and teach the virtues of coexistence with Israel, the two-state solution will remain a pipe dream.
Topic:
Security, Conflict, State Building, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

8827. Peace, Security, or the Economy? Israeli Narratives About the Abraham Accords

Author:
Maia Carter Hallward and Taib Biygautane
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
In 2020 several Arab states announced U.S.-brokered full normalization agreements with Israel, absent any explicit compromises on Israel’s side vis-à-vis the Palestinians, a significant shift from traditionally held positions. While several of these states already had informal security, intelligence, and trade relations with Israel and, except for Sudan, were never at war with Israel, these agreements represented a significant shift in historical Arab-Israeli relations and thus required discursive justification to a range of audiences, including the Arab and Israeli publics. This article looks specifically at how the Abraham Accords were framed in the Israeli press and takes an initial look at the extent to which the Accords have impacted Israel’s economic and security situation.
Topic:
Security, Regional Cooperation, Peace, and Abraham Accords
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

8828. Selective Reconciliation: The Rapprochement Between Israel and the Gulf Monarchies

Author:
Zoltan Barany
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
The September 2020 Abraham Accords between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain was the culmination of a multi-year process. Later two other Arab monarchies, Morocco, and Jordan jointed them in improving their relations with the Jewish State while the remaining Gulf Cooperation Council members opted not to join the Accords. This article focuses on Gulf Kingdoms and argues that the improvement in Israeli-Arab relations is explained by a growing realization that in Iran, both sides have a common enemy; the failings of America’s Middle East policy; the anticipated economic and security benefits to be gained from improved relations; and the diminished importance of the Palestinian issue for Arab societies and governments.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Peace, and Abraham Accords
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Jordan, and Morocco

8829. Getting India to Net Zero

Author:
Asia Sociey
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
At the World Leaders Summit at COP26 in Glasgow in November 2021, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi surprised the world by announcing that India will achieve net zero emissions by 2070. PM Modi also announced a series of updates to India’s 2030 targets in his five-part panchamrit on climate while offering a vision of sustainable lifestyles. Together, these updated pledges — which India has recently moved toward formalizing under the UN process — reflect India’s political will to seek a cleaner development pathway in the face of projected rapid economic growth. India’s decision to step up on climate comes ahead of a pivotal moment for Asian and Indian leadership, especially with India assuming the G20 presidency in 2023 and the Asia Pacific Group hosting COP28. The new Getting India to Net Zero report from the High-level Policy Commission on Getting Asia to Net Zero explores how India can achieve net zero emissions in a manner that is beneficial to its economy, society, and place in the world. The Commission was launched in May 2022 under Asia Society Policy Institute and Asia Society President Kevin Rudd’s leadership to advance a powerful, coherent, and Paris-aligned regional vision for net zero emissions in Asia. Through research, analysis, and engagement, the Commission’s diverse set of recognized Asian and global leaders aim to provide recommendations for how Asia and key countries can realize net zero emissions, including how climate action can boost the region’s economy, trade, interconnectedness, and livelihoods. The report’s insights are informed by new modeling commissioned by the High-level Policy Commission to show the opportunities and tradeoffs associated with India’s options to meet its existing emissions reduction targets and increase its medium- and long-term ambition. As the report’s modeling illustrates, India’s decision to step up on climate is consistent with its long-term economic ambitions and interests. Achieving net zero emissions by 2070 could boost India’s economy by as much as 4.7 percent above projected baseline growth in GDP terms by 2036 — worth a total of US$371 billion — with long-run effects still maintaining 3.5 percent growth above baseline by 2060. Further policies could make net zero possible by mid-century and lead to even greater benefits. The Commission’s foreword translates these insights into actionable advice for India’s climate policy stakeholders to capitalize on the opportunities of net zero action while constructively addressing related challenges.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economy, Carbon Emissions, and Net Zero
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

8830. China's Course to Carbon Neutrality

Author:
Cory Combs
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
China is in the midst of a wholesale economic transformation, driven by the central government’s pursuit of sustainability in all its forms: economic, social, and environmental. At the heart of this transformation sit Xi Jinping’s “dual carbon” targets: one to peak emissions before 2030, and the other to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. However, such straightforward guiding targets belie the monumental complexity of unraveling and then rebuilding the fossil fuel–driven economy that enabled China’s rapid rise as a global economic power. The difficulties of moving China’s economy up the value chain – particularly from low-grade, emissions-intensive industrial manufacturing toward high value-add, green and low-carbon production – are compounded by the immense political frictions posed by entrenched interests and bureaucratic inertia. In this context, it is imperative for observers – particularly those keen on engaging with China during its grand green transformation experiment – to understand the many pieces, players, and problems involved. To this end, this report takes stock of China’s planning and reform efforts across the domains of climate, energy, and industrial upgrading since the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025) was adopted. It then assesses the key drivers and constraints shaping these efforts, with the aim of elucidating the most likely path ahead – even as Beijing itself continues to map it out.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Economy, Sustainability, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
China and Asia

8831. China’s 20th Party Congress Leadership Reshuffle: Stasis or Sweep?

Author:
Christopher K Johnson
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
President and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping successfully thwarted another “Twitter coup” in late September 2022, making clear he will remain China’s top leader for at least the next five years. But there is much less certainty about who else will make up the new leadership team at the 20th Party Congress that will assist Xi in guiding the country through its most challenging period in decades. There are virtually no hard rules in CCP politicking limiting the range of possible outcomes, and even the “norms” that are often cited as governing the process of choosing a new leadership lineup are, at best, loose conventions rather than predictable practices. Xi’s extreme centralization of power also means that China’s already deeply opaque political system is even more so, and more than two and a half years of COVID isolation for China has made it much more challenging to glean authoritative insights. Nevertheless, one still gets a very clear sense that the personnel arrangements for the party congress are largely in hand, and that Xi Jinping is firmly in command and very comfortable with them. If we accept that as the baseline, it is possible to deduce the most likely scenarios for personnel turnover at the apex of CCP power and decision-making, the Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC). As with so many things in Xi Jinping’s unique political universe, it seems that the outcome will probably be one of two fairly binary, and perhaps nearly equally likely, possibilities. The first, a “stasis” scenario, would see very little change to the PBSC as Xi either strictly adheres to the convention, followed since 2002, that officials 68 or older must retire, or largely abides by it except for some PBSC incumbents, most probably Premier Li Keqiang, who may step down even though he is 67. In the second “sweep” scenario, Xi could adjust the age criteria downward or just outright ignore it, creating a lot more room for new entrants to the PBSC.
Topic:
Leadership, Domestic Politics, Political Parties, Xi Jinping, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:
China and Asia

8832. China’s National ETS and the Power Market: How the ETS Can Achieve Significant Emission Reductions

Author:
Yan Qin, Alistair Ritchie, and Yi Chen
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
China’s newly established national emissions trading system (ETS) is intended to serve as the primary tool in assisting China in meeting its "dual carbon" target of CO2 peaking before 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. It is the largest ETS globally, accounting for 40 percent of China's CO2 emissions and more than 10 percent of worldwide emissions, with the potential to double its current size once industrial sectors are added. In its initial phase, it covers the power sector, particularly more than 2,000 enterprises operating coal- and gas-fired power stations. However, some critical challenges need to be overcome before the ETS can fulfill its emissions reduction potential in the power sector by driving fuel switching away from coal and toward renewables and low-carbon fuels through the carbon price. China's National ETS and The Power Market: How the ETS Can Achieve Significant Emission Reductions examines these challenges in relation to both the ETS itself and its interactions with the power market. It also proposes a policy pathway to address these challenges and unlock their potential to drive significant and cost-effective CO2 emissions reductions in the power sector and raise large amounts of revenue to fund the transition to carbon neutrality across the expanding ETS sectors.
Topic:
Climate Change, Markets, Carbon Emissions, and Energy
Political Geography:
China and Asia

8833. The EU’s Proposed Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and Its Implications for Asia

Author:
Hubert Fallmann, Alistair Ritchie, and Yi Chen
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
To achieve a climate-neutral European Union (EU) by 2050 in line with the Paris Agreement, the EU needs to more ambitiously reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the coming decade and update its climate and energy policy framework. The recently adopted European Climate Law sets a new EU target for 2030 of reducing GHG emissions by at least 55 percent compared to 1990 levels. To deliver this, the European Commission has proposed a “Fit for 55” package containing, among other initiatives, legislative proposals for a revision of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) with a more stringent emissions cap and a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). The CBAM will put a carbon price on imports of a targeted selection of goods with the aim of 1). ensuring that ambitious climate action in the EU does not lead to carbon leakage, and 2). encouraging partner countries to implement similar carbon-pricing policies. This policy, even at its proposal stage, has created a significant impact worldwide in supporting the uptake of carbon-pricing policies and in encouraging consideration of similar carbon border adjustment policies. The EU’s Proposed Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and Its Implications for Asia investigates the details of the EU’s proposed CBAM and its specific implications for companies and governments in Asia.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, European Union, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Europe and Asia

8834. Reimagining the TPP: Revisions that Could Facilitate U.S. Reentry

Author:
Wendy Cutler and Clete Willems
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
Since the United States withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in 2017, countries in the Asia-Pacific have actively concluded trade deals without the U.S. This includes China, which is a member of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and has recently applied to join the TPP, now known as the CPTPP. These developments have increased the urgency for the United States to step up its economic engagement in the world’s fastest-growing region. The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) is a useful step in this direction, but countries in the region are clamoring for more. A return to CPTPP would provide an immediate boost to U.S. economic competitiveness and geopolitical influence. However, many concerns about the original TPP are legitimate and U.S. trade policy views have shifted since the agreement was concluded. A new report by the Asia Society Policy Institute titled Reimagining the TPP: Revisions that Could Facilitate U.S. Reentry aims to start a meaningful conversation about potential U.S re-entry into the CPTPP based on extensive consultations and important input from a broad range of trade experts, domestic stakeholders, and CPTPP members. It offers recommendations for improvements and updates to the agreement in 12 areas needed to meet U.S. economic interests and facilitate U.S. re-entry.
Topic:
Economy, Trans-Pacific Partnership, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

8835. The Evolution of the Global Trading System: How the Rise of Asia and Next Generation Trade Will Shape the Future Economy

Author:
Shay Wester
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
Over the last seventy years, global trade flows have grown to an unprecedented level, facilitated by the lowering of tariffs and the creation of a shared set of rules. The Asia Pacific region has been central to this remarkable growth, with trade volumes nearly quadrupling in the last twenty years. Asian countries view trade as a critical tool to grow their economies, strengthen supply chain resiliency, create jobs, foster development, attract foreign direct investment, and promote innovation. As a result, they have been on the forefront of concluding trade agreements, and in the process tackling emerging issues through innovative approaches. In the meantime, many of the existing institutions, groupings, and approaches that have supported a strong rules-based trading system have not sufficiently stepped up to address emerging challenges. In particular, negotiating efforts at the World Trade Organization (WTO) have largely stalled with WTO members to date unable to forge consensus on pressing trade matters affecting climate, health, and digital, to name just a few. Additionally, as the scope of trade agreements has expanded over time, concluding comprehensive agreements has become more difficult. Finally, increased geopolitical tensions have impacted the multilateral trading system’s ability to function and thus respond effectively to new challenges. A new Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) report, The Evolution of the Global Trading System: How the Rise of Asia and Next Generation Challenges Will Shape the Future Economy, by ASPI's Shay Wester, explores next-generation trade challenges where new rules and new approaches will be needed. It concludes with observations on how these changes are reshaping the global trading system and examines how governments will need to adapt going forward.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, World Trade Organization, Economy, and Tariffs
Political Geography:
Asia

8836. Military Coups in Africa: A Continuation of Politics by Other Means?

Author:
Nana Amoateng
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
The military has been an important institution for protecting States from external threats since antiquity. In fulfilling this fundamental role, military institutions have also posed security risks to their own governments, given that the ‘ability to use coercive force, though necessary to defend the nation against threats, creates the danger that the military will turn its weapons on the very regime that empowered its existence’.[1] Military personnel can fuel civil conflicts and undermine the stability of political regimes mostly in States with loose political control of the military. As Douglass North, John Wallis and Barry Weingast have argued, ‘Societies experiencing a civil war, by definition, do not have consolidated control of the military’.[2] In Africa, military institutions have, on one hand, helped to protect States from both internal and external threats, including local insurgencies. On the other hand, they have destabilised several political regimes through coup d’états. Military coups – ‘when the military, or a section of the military, turns its coercive power against the apex of the state, establishes itself there, and the rest of the state takes its orders from the new regime’[3] – have been relatively common in post-independent African States,[4] thereby raising several issues, including how to understand the relationship between politics and military coups. This article contributes to the discussion by highlighting how coups are a continuation of politics by other means, particularly in West Africa.
Topic:
Politics, Governance, Leadership, Coup, and Military
Political Geography:
Africa

8837. Environment, Conflict and Peacebuilding: Addressing the Root Causes of Conflict in Darfur

Author:
Zurab Elzarov
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
The relationship between climate change and deadly conflict is complex and context-specific, but it is undeniable that climate change is a threat multiplier that is already increasing food insecurity, water scarcity and resource competition, while disrupting livelihoods and spurring migration. In turn, deadly conflict and political instability are contributing to climate change.[2] Darfur captured international headlines in 2004 when United States (US) Secretary of State Colin Powell declared that genocide was occurring in Sudan in his testimony to the US Senate.[3] The early-2000s conflict in Darfur between rebel groups on one side and government forces and allied militias on the other caused an estimated 300 000 deaths, and about 2.5 million people live in displacement camps across Darfur.[4] Most observers agree that the immediate cause was a regional rebellion, to which Khartoum responded by recruiting Arab militias, known as the Janjaweed, to wage a campaign of ethnic cleansing against African civilians.[5] They also argue that the three core drivers of violence in Darfur at present are disputes over land and resources, the complex network of militias and paramilitary forces, and the weakness of the rule of law and security institutions.[6] Eighteen years after the eruption of the conflict in Darfur, these conclusions regarding the main causes and triggers of the conflict remain valid. In 2021, despite the signed Juba Peace Agreement, the security situation in Darfur remained volatile, with significant inter-communal violence and fighting between government forces and rebels in the Jebel Marra area. The instability in the region continues to cause large-scale displacement, with more than 200 000 people displaced in Darfur since the beginning of 2021.
Topic:
Environment, Conflict, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Africa and Darfur

8838. Natural Resource (In)justice, Conflict and Transition Challenges in Africa: Lessons from the Niger Delta

Author:
Luke Amadi
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
The term ‘natural resource (in)justice’ has been used in various contexts by various scholars. Contemporary resource justice scholarship highlights several different areas of debate, including power and inequality in resource access, control, ownership, greening, eco-efficiency, feminist ecology, resource transparency, just transitions,[1] resource equity, resource rights, and fairness with regards to global inequality in North/South natural resource policies.[2] Resource injustice underlines two dynamic and interwoven contexts. First, there is the anthropogenic context, which examines the adverse effects of natural resource extraction on humans, including exclusion, degradation, inequality, and unfair treatment in natural resource allocation. Second, there is the eco-centric context, which explores the adverse effects of natural resource extraction on the ecosystem or the natural environment. The broader terrain within which natural resource justice is being pursued is rapidly changing. With the rise of natural resource justice movements, new ecological threats, the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, and lethal feedback with deleterious capitalist resource extraction in the global South, resource justice is confronted with new challenges, notably resource conflict. Since the end of the Cold War, there has been a considerable and increasing number of studies on natural resource conflict, including on questions of resource appropriation or what has become known in resource conflict debates as the ‘resource curse’, which points out the paradox of poverty among resource-rich countries.[3] Conflict and poverty are intertwined. In 2013, 471 million people lived in fragile and conflict-affected countries, while 78% of the world’s poor lived in these countries (181 million people).[4] Natural resources – land, water, forests, air – are essential to life on Earth.[5] Natural resource conflict accounts for the incompatibility of goals in natural resource use or appropriation. The rural poor in developing countries remain the most vulnerable, as they directly depend on natural resources for their food and livelihood security, while the livelihoods of 2.5 billion people depend wholly or partly on agriculture.[6] The dynamics of fair and equitable resource allocation in contexts associated with resource injustice are largely unknown. This is true especially where the resource-bearing local population is either marginalised or excluded in decision-making processes regarding natural resources.
Topic:
Environment, Natural Resources, Transitional Justice, Conflict, and Justice
Political Geography:
Africa and Niger Delta

8839. Peacebuilding Policies and Frameworks in Kenya

Author:
Sylvan Odidi
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Peacebuilding is both a contested and evolving concept,with no universally accepted definition.[1] Despite being a broadly fluid term without clear guidelines or goals, most scholars agree that the fundamental task of peacebuilding is to improve human security.[2] The term first emerged through Johan Galtung’s peace work. He advocated for the establishment of a peacebuilding system to stimulate long-lasting peace by finding a solution to sources of violent conflicts and enhancing local capacities for conflict resolution and peace management.[3] A report by Boutros Boutros-Ghali entitled ‘An Agenda for Peace: Preventive Diplomacy, Peacemaking and Peace-Keeping’ refers to peacebuilding as ‘an action to identify and support structures which will tend to strengthen and solidify peace to avoid a relapse into conflict’.[4] A peacebuilding agenda is critical in the realisation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) which advocate for ‘peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, access to justice for all and building effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels’.[5] In the Kenyan context, peacebuilding activities and regulatory frameworks are recognised as vital processes and instruments that are necessary for the achievement of Vision 2030, which is the country’s new development blueprint that aims to transform Kenya into a new industrialising middle-income country providing a high quality of life to all its citizen by 2030. On the one hand, the peacebuilding, conflict management, and security strategy of the political pillar of Vision 2030 underscores the need for promoting peacebuilding and reconciliation, deepening policies and legal and institutional frameworks that promote order in society, as well as institutionalising dialogue between and among communities to promote harmony among racial, ethnic and other interest groups. On the other hand, the social pillar aims at establishing ‘a just and cohesive society that enjoys equitable social development in a clean and secure environment’.[6] Nyambura Githaiga observes that from a cursory glance, Kenya is not an immediate or apparent choice for a peacebuilding case study.[7] This can be attributed to the fact that peacebuilding studies primarily focus on nations that experienced highly destructive and horrific civil wars and require international intervention. However, Kenya has suffered intermittent and localised destructive conflicts, such as the 1992, 1997, and 2007-2008 election-based violence. Therefore, Kenya offers a peacebuilding case study which is not related to civil war, but part of a tactical response to repeated incidents of local destructive conflicts.[8]
Topic:
Infrastructure, Conflict, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

8840. From Terrorism to Banditry: Mass Abductions of Schoolchildren in Nigeria

Author:
Freedom C. Onuoha and Joseph Chukwunonso Akogwu
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Kidnapping in Nigeria is not a new phenomenon but has assumed an alarming dimension in recent times. Acts of kidnapping are increasingly perpetrated by different criminal elements, such as militias, gangs, ritualists, and terrorists, among others, for a variety of reasons. However, the increased frequency, geographical spread, and operational sophistication of kidnapping for ransom (K4R) is a major source of concern for individuals, organisations, the diplomatic community, and, indeed, the Nigerian Government. Much of the concern is about the safety of the victims as well as the cost of this expanding criminal enterprise. For instance, Nigeria’s main geopolitical intelligence platform, SBM Intelligence, estimated that between 2011 and 2020, Nigerians paid at least US$18.34 million (₦7 billion) in ransoms to kidnappers.[1] In the first half of 2021, 2 371 people were kidnapped and the sum of about US$23.84 million (N10 billion) was demanded in ransoms in Nigeria.[2] The targets are as diverse as the actors who benefit from and the factors that underpin the upsurge in K4R. Expatriates, businesspeople, schoolchildren, women, politicians, government officials, diplomats, and traditional rulers, among others, are increasingly being targeted by criminal gangs.[3] The wanton predation on schoolchildren through mass abduction by armed groups that are ideologically or economically motivated is the latest worrisome trend in the pattern of criminal victimisation in Nigeria. This article examines the trajectory of the mass abduction of schoolchildren in northern Nigeria, highlighting the drivers of mass abduction and evaluating emerging responses by the government.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Governance, Leadership, Peace, and Abductions
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

8841. The Role of Youths in Countering Violent Extremism in Northeast Nigeria

Author:
Angela Ajodo-Adebanjoko
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Northeast Nigeria is the epicentre of violent extremism in the country. Borno, Yobe, and Adamawa states, in particular, record high incidences of extremism regularly. Extremists have been responsible for various killings and wanton destruction in the north and other parts of Nigeria. At the centre of the violence are youths, who constitute the majority of the members of these extremist groups. Young people are easier targets for recruitment by extremist groups because of peer pressure, drug use, gang involvement, prior delinquency, family member gang-involvement, membership in a cult, and the quest for adventure, among others. In spite of their involvement in violent extremism, it is recognised globally that the youth can be equal partners in its prevention. The youth should be considered a country’s asset, as the future of the country as well as having the potential to be leaders of today. However, a growing ‘youth bulge’ of unemployable young people trying to survive – and subject to recruitment by armed extremist groups – is problematic, and can even present a threat to prosperity and peace.
Topic:
Violent Extremism, Youth, Conflict, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

8842. The Risk Pivot: Great Powers, International Security and the Energy Revolution

Author:
Felix Shihundu
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
The Risk Pivot: Great Powers, International Security and the Energy Revolution shows a good understanding of conflict trends in Africa. The book highlights and provides evidence for the dangers existing in the energy revolution from fossil fuels to much-needed environmentally friendly, sustainable, and renewable energy that has become the next frontier in great power rivalries. Both the United States (US) and China are valuable stakeholders in this area and command geopolitical influence on the African continent. The book brings into perspective the geopolitical consequences of the revolutionary energy supply, demand and flow and how it is transforming the global economy, international security, and the order of states. According to the authors, the emergence of global middle-class countries, such as the Asian giants, a fast-growing source of energy demand, combined with security-challenged energy producers and exporters, such as Algeria, Libya and Nigeria in Africa, represents geopolitical instability. The authors lay out the foreign policy and security implications of dramatic changes in energy production, distribution and consumption. The danger, what the authors refer to as risk pivot, in international security is caused by a number of factors. The first factor is the increasing dependence of rising Asian powers, such as India and China, on Middle East oil and gas supplies. The second factor is the new energy partnership between China and Russia, a leading fossil fuel producer. The third factor is the shifting centre of global energy markets as a result of energy revolutions in the US. The fourth factor is the increased energy demands due to the rising global middle class, which poses challenges for governance and development. The final factor is the role of the US in securing energy flows from the Middle East following its Asia re-alignment.
Topic:
International Security, Power Politics, and Energy
Political Geography:
Africa

8843. The geopolitical implications of Russia's invasion of Ukraine

Author:
Paul Dibb
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
The eminent Harvard University professor of Ukrainian history, Serhii Plokhy, observed that Russia’s occupation of Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk in 2014 raised fundamental questions about Ukraine’s continuing existence as a unified state, its independence as a nation, and the democratic foundations of its political institutions.1 This created a new and dangerous situation not only in Ukraine but also in Europe as a whole. For the first time since the end of World War II, a major European power made war on a weaker neighbour and annexed part of the territory of a sovereign state. This unprovoked Russian aggression against Ukraine threatened the foundations of international order—a threat to which, he said, the EU and most of the world weren’t prepared to respond. Two years later, Plokhy published a book called Lost kingdom: a history of Russian nationalism from Ivan the Great to Vladimir Putin 2 in which he observed—correctly, in my view—that the question of where Russia begins and ends, and who constitutes the Russian people, has preoccupied Russian thinkers for centuries. He might have added that Russia has no obvious or clear-cut geographical borders. Plokhy also stated that the current Russo-Ukrainian conflict is only the latest turn of Russian policy resulting from the Russian elite’s thinking about itself and its East Slavic neighbours as part of their joint historical and cultural space, and ultimately as the same nation. He asserts that the current conflict reprises many of the themes that have been central to political and cultural relations in the region for the previous five centuries. Those include Russia’s great-power status and influence beyond its borders; the continued relevance of religion, especially Orthodox Christianity, as defined in Russian identity and the conduct of Russian policy abroad; and, last but not least, the importance of language and culture as tools of Russian state policy in the region. Moreover, the conflict reminds the world that the formation of the modern Russian nation is still far from complete. Plokhy concludes that this threat is no less serious than the one posed in the 19th and early 20th centuries by the German question—the idea of uniting all the German lands to forge a mighty German Empire.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, Geopolitics, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

8844. ASPI AUKUS update 2: September 2022—the one-year anniversary

Author:
Malcolm Davis, Ben Stevens, Alex Bristow, and Marcus Hellyer
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
Consistent with a partnership that’s focused on the development of defence and technological capability rather than diplomatic grandstanding,1 there have been few public announcements about the progress of AUKUS. That’s an observation we made in our first AUKUS update in May,2 and one we make again in this latest update, one year on from the joint unveiling of the partnership in mid-September 2021. Periodic press releases note meetings of the three-country joint steering groups—one of which looks at submarines and the other at advanced capabilities—but provide little hint about what was discussed.3 On Submarines, we shouldn’t expect to hear anything concrete until the 18-month consultation phase concludes in March 2022. What’s changed, however, is that the strategic environment that gave birth to AUKUS has worsened markedly, most notably in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s escalating pressure on Taiwan and other parts of the Indo-Pacific. Those developments are making the advanced technologies AUKUS aims to foster even more relevant.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Partnerships, and AUKUS
Political Geography:
Australia and Australia/Pacific

8845. Australia’s semiconductor national moonshot

Author:
Alex Capri and Robert Clark
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
Australia has recently been forced to cross a Rubicon. Its wholehearted embrace of global free trade and just-in-time supply chains has had to confront the hard reality of geopolitics. In many parts of the world, geopolitics is choking free trade, and China—Australia’s largest trading partner—has shown itself particularly willing to use trade coercively and abrogate its free trade commitments, not just with Australia, but with countries all around the world. Advanced technologies are at the centre of this geopolitical struggle, because of the risk that withheld supply poses to national economies and security. As Covid-19 disruptions have demonstrated, the risks are not even limited to deliberate coercion. In this environment, bold action is warranted. Continuing to do what we did before is not an option because it will undermine the national interest. A new approach is needed that’s in part heretical to our old market-based approach but is driven by necessity: government intervention that works in tandem with industry expertise and drive. In this important policy brief, Alex Capri and Robert Clark lay out a vision for Australia to secure its place in the global semiconductor industry—an industry they describe as ‘the single most important technology underlying leading-edge industries’. Their proposal is to stimulate A$5 billion of semiconductor manufacturing activity through A$1.5 billion of government investment and financial incentives. Those subsidies and tax concessions would mirror similar initiatives such as the US ‘CHIPS’ and ‘FABS’ Acts, but are focused on Australia’s interests. They identify a logical niche for Australia that would initially establish a distributed commercial compound semiconductor foundry capability across Australia via a public–private partnership. In the longer term, they propose establishing a commercial silicon complementary metal-oxide semiconductor foundry at mature process scale. Government intervention in a market shouldn’t be made lightly, but Capri and Clark make a compelling case to do so. If policymakers agree that Australia needs access to semiconductors and that their supply from elsewhere can’t be guaranteed, then intervention is imperative. This policy brief lays out a ‘moonshot’ to get Australia there.
Topic:
Markets, Trade, Supply Chains, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:
Australia and Australia/Pacific

8846. Assessing the groundwork: Surveying the impacts of climate change in China

Author:
Stephan Robin
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
The immediate and unprecedented impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly apparent across China, as they are for many parts of the world. Since June 2022, China has been battered by record-breaking heatwaves, torrential downpours, flooding disasters, severe drought and intense forest fires. In isolation, each of those climate hazards is a reminder of the vulnerability of human systems to environmental changes, but together they are a stark reminder that climate change presents a real and existential threat to prosperity and well-being of billions of people. Sea-level rise will undermine access to freshwater for China’s coastal cities and increase the likelihood of flooding in China’s highly urbanised delta regions. Droughts are projected to become more frequent, more extreme and longer lasting, juxtaposed with growingly intense downpours that will inundate non-coastal regions. Wildfires are also projected to increase in frequency and severity, especially in eastern China. China’s rivers, which have historically been critical to the county’s economic and political development, will experience multiple, overlapping climate (and non-climate) impacts. In addition to these direct climate hazards, there will also be major disruptions to the various human systems that underpin China, such as China’s food and energy systems as are discussed in this report. These impacts deserve greater attention from policy analysts, particularly given that they’ll increasingly shape China’s economic, foreign and security policy choices in coming decades. This report is an initial attempt to survey the literature on the impact that climate change will have on China. It concludes that relatively little attention has been paid to this important topic. This is a worrying conclusion, given China’s key role in international climate-change debates, immense importance in the global economy and major geostrategic relevance. As the severity of climate change impacts continue to amplify over the coming decades, the significance of this gap will only grow more concerning.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, National Security, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
China and Asia-Pacific

8847. Suppressing the truth and spreading lies: How the CCP is influencing Solomon Islands’ information environment

Author:
Blake Johnson, Miah Hammond-Errey, Daria Impiombato, Albert Zhang, and Joshua Dunne
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is attempting to influence public discourse in Solomon Islands through coordinated information operations that seek to spread false narratives and suppress information on a range of topics. Following the November 2021 Honiara riots and the March 2022 leaking of the China – Solomon Islands security agreement, the CCP has used its propaganda and disinformation capabilities to push false narratives in an effort to shape the Solomon Islands public’s perception of security issues and foreign partners. In alignment with the CCP’s regional security objectives, those messages have a strong focus on undermining Solomon Islands’ existing partnerships with Australia and the US. Although some of the CCP’s messaging occurs through routine diplomatic engagement, there’s a coordinated effort to influence the population across a broad spectrum of information channels. That spectrum includes Chinese party-state media, CCP official-led statements and publications in local and social media, and the amplification of particular individual and pro-CCP content via targeted Facebook groups. There’s now growing evidence to suggest that CCP officials are also seeking to suppress information that doesn’t align with the party-state’s narratives across the Pacific islands through the coercion of local journalists and media institutions.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Propaganda, Disinformation, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:
China, Solomon Islands, and Asia-Pacific

8848. Deciding the future: the Australian Army and the infantry fighting vehicle

Author:
Albert Palazzo
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
The aim of this report is to inform government decision-makers and the public on the ability of Project LAND 400 Phase 3—the infantry fighting vehicle (IFV) acquisition—to meet the needs of Australia. I examine a number of factors that provide context for the government’s upcoming decision, whenever that may take place. Those include how IFVs fit into the Australian strategic environment, the ease with which the ADF can deploy them, their vulnerability to threats, and the ongoing utility of armour in the light of lessons unfolding from the ongoing Russian–Ukrainian War. To set the information into a useful context, this report explains the nature of contemporary land warfare and speculates how the Australian Army is likely to fight in a future conflict. To further assist those making the IFV decision, this report offers a number of scenarios that outline potential operations that the government may direct the ADF to undertake. It also identifies current gaps in ADF capability that will need remediation if the IFV is to achieve its potential, as well as the other opportunities that might not be taken up because of the focus on this investment. The report’s analysis results in some key questions for decision-makers to consider as they decide on the infantry fighting vehicle acquisition: Does the government believe that its IFV investment will deliver an appropriate balance of protection, lethality and mobility (both tactical and operational)? Does the government agree with the requirement for an infantry vehicle with STANAG 4569 Level 6 force protection and equipped with an active protection system? Is the government confident that the number of the IFVs obtained will generate a deployable and sustainable force that represents a sufficient return on the investment? Does the government accept that the IFV options under consideration will enable the ADF to offset existing gaps in capability and allow it to conduct operations in a contested maritime environment, including sea and airlift, long-range fires and logistics? Is the government confident that the Army’s combined arms system is deployable in contested environments, particularly in a maritime scenario? Does the government believe that the IFV will provide utility in the range of contingencies that the government envisages the ADF will need to meet? Does the government agree that the IFV will contribute to the requirement that the ADF be able to shape, deter and respond to threats as mandated in the 2020 Defence Strategic Update (DSU)?
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, United Nations, Economy, Defense Industry, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Australia, and United States of America

8849. Frontier influencers: the new face of China’s propaganda

Author:
Fergus Ryan, Daria Impiombato, and Hsi-Ting Pai
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
This report explores how the Chinese party-state’s globally focused propaganda and disinformation capabilities are evolving and increasing in sophistication. Concerningly, this emerging approach by the Chinese party-state to influence international discourse on China, including obfuscating its record of human rights violations, is largely flying under the radar of US social media platforms and western policymakers. In the broader context of attempts by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to censor speech, promote disinformation and seed the internet with its preferred narratives, we focus on a small but increasingly popular set of YouTube accounts that feature mainly female China-based ethnic-minority influencers from the troubled frontier regions of Xinjiang, Tibet and Inner Mongolia, hereafter referred to as ‘frontier influencers’ or ‘frontier accounts’. Despite being blocked in China, YouTube is seen by the CCP as a key battlefield in its ideological contestation with the outside world, and YouTube’s use in foreign-facing propaganda efforts has intensified in recent years. Originally deployed on domestic video-sharing platforms to meet an internal propaganda need, frontier-influencer content has since been redirected towards global audiences on YouTube as part of the CCP’s evolving efforts to counter criticisms of China’s human rights problems and burnish the country’s image. Alongside party-state media and foreign vloggers, these carefully vetted domestic vloggers are increasingly seen as another key part of Beijing’s external propaganda arsenal. Their use of a more personal style of communication and softer presentation is expected to be more convincing than traditional party-state media content, which is often inclined towards the more rigid and didactic. For the CCP, frontier influencers represent, in the words of one Chinese propaganda expert, ‘guerrillas or militia’ fighting on the flanks in ‘the international arena of public opinion’, while party-state media or the ‘regular army’ ‘charge, kill and advance on the frontlines’. The frontier accounts we examine in this report were predominantly created in 2020–21 and feature content that closely hews to CCP narratives, but their less polished presentation has a more authentic feel that conveys a false sense of legitimacy and transparency about China’s frontier regions that party-state media struggle to achieve. For viewers, the video content appears to be the creation of the individual influencers, but is in fact what’s referred to in China as ‘professional user generated content’, or content that’s produced with the help of special influencer-management agencies known as multi-channel networks (MCNs). For the mostly young and female Uyghur, Tibetan and other ethnic-minority influencers we examine in this report, having such an active presence on a Western social media platform is highly unusual, and ordinarily would be fraught with danger. But, as we reveal, frontier influencers are carefully vetted and considered politically reliable. The content they create is tightly circumscribed via self-censorship and oversight from their MCNs and domestic video platforms before being published on YouTube. In one key case study, we show how frontier influencers’ content was directly commissioned by the Chinese party-state. Because YouTube is blocked in China, individual influencers based in the country aren’t able to receive advertising revenue through the platform’s Partner Program, which isn’t available there. But, through their arrangements with YouTube, MCNs have been able to monetise content for frontier influencers, as well as for hundreds of other China-based influencers on the platform. Given that many of the MCNs have publicly committed to promote CCP propaganda, this arrangement results in a troubling situation in which MCNs are able to monetise their activities, including the promotion of disinformation, via their access to YouTube’s platform. The use of professionally supported frontier influencers also appears to be aimed at ensuring that state-backed content ranks well in search results because search-engine algorithms tend to prioritise fresh content and channels that post regularly. From the CCP’s perspective, the continuous flooding of content by party-state media, foreign influencers and professionally supported frontier influencers onto YouTube is aimed at outperforming other more critical but stale content. This new phenomenon reflects a continued willingness, identified in previous ASPI ICPC reports,1 by the Chinese party-state to experiment in its approach to shaping online political discourse, particularly on those topics that have the potential to disrupt its strategic objectives. By targeting online audiences on YouTube through intermediary accounts managed by MCNs, the CCP can hide its affiliation with those influencers and create the appearance of ‘independent’ and ‘authoritative’ voices supporting its narratives, including disinformation that it’s seeking to propagate globally. This report (on page 42) makes a series of policy recommendations, including that social media platforms shouldn’t allow MCNs who are conducting propaganda and disinformation work on behalf of the Chinese party-state to monetise their activities or be recognised by the platforms as, for example, official partners or award winners. This report also recommends that social media platforms broaden their practice of labelling the accounts of state media, agencies and officials to include state-linked influencers from the People’s Republic of China.
Topic:
Cybersecurity, Social Media, Propaganda, and Disinformation
Political Geography:
China and Asia

8850. The Cost of Defence: ASPI Defence Budget Brief October 2022–2023

Author:
Marcus Hellyer
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
Shortly before the recent election, the previous government released a defence budget that continued its record of delivering the funding it promised in the 2016 Defence White Paper (DWP) and subsequent 2020 Defence Strategic Update (DSU). The Albanese government’s first budget was not designed to focus on Australia’s security situation or defence spending. Tasked with sharing Australia’s difficult economic situation with the Australian public, the budget has more immediate fish to fry. For those Australians who want to see increased defence spending, this was not going to be that budget as it would have directly undercut existing defence reviews due within months. Certainly, the Prime Minister has stated that the government will do whatever is necessary to ensure Australia has the defence force it needs in these strategically uncertain times. But this budget gives no indication of how much the government is willing to spend to do that. With the Defence Strategic Review (DSR) under Stephen Smith and Angus Houston conducting its work and not due to report until March next year, the government has stuck with the existing funding line it inherited from its predecessor. That’s an artefact of the 2016 Defence White Paper—a document developed in a different era and quickly overtaken by events. So Defence is in a holding pattern while the government keeps its powder dry and waits for Smith and Houston (noting their interim report has recently been handed to the government). No doubt it has had conversations with the DSR leads indicating its comfort zone for additional spending, but that hasn’t been made public. What we can say from the information set out in this budget is that any increase to defence spending will require difficult reprioritisation. While the government received a revenue windfall this year due to high commodity prices, those are forecast to return to normal. And with the government committing to deliver the tax cuts agreed by its predecessor, its income is under further pressure. At the same time, it’s facing five growing spending pressures: interest on the growing debt, the National Disability Insurance Scheme, health care, aged care, and defence—and that’s before any increase to the existing defence funding line. The result is a forecast for deficit spending for the next 10 years. That’s not a good situation for the DSR leads. They’re tasked with delivering new military acquisitions faster in the next decade, but the existing acquisition plan is probably already unaffordable (without increased spending), with many entirely new capabilities or expensive replacement projects. And with nuclear-powered submarines and frigates on the untouchable list, the challenge of delivering more sooner gets even harder, as those two programs will consume tens of billions of dollars over the coming decade even before they deliver their first vessels. Moreover, inflation is rapidly eroding Defence’s buying power by billions of dollars every year. By the end of the forward estimates, Defence may have lost around $18 billion in buying power even if inflation rapidly returns to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s target rate. That’s the budget papers’ predictions, but those predictions haven’t been very accurate in recent years. This year, despite nominal growth of over 7% in defence spending, real growth is under 1% once inflation is taken into account (although, with inflation difficult to predict, it’s also difficult to reliably quantify real growth). It’s hard to see Defence affording its ambitious acquisition program with a budget that’s essentially static in real terms. Inflation is also driving nominal GDP growth at a predicted 8% this year. That means that defence spending is falling as a percentage of GDP for the second year in a row despite the government delivering the funding set out in the 2016 Defence White Paper and 2020 Defence Strategic Update. Predicted defence spending has also fallen significantly just since the March budget, from 2.11% to 1.96%, despite the funding line remaining fundamentally unchanged. In summary, there is no pot of gold available to cover increased defence spending. That doesn’t mean the government can’t or won’t increase defence spending, but any increase will require either higher taxes (which appears unlikely, since the government is proceeding with its predecessor’s planned tax cuts), greater borrowing (accelerating the vicious cycle of debts and deficits), or cuts to other priorities that have constituencies of their own. When we look at Defence’s big three areas of spending—capital acquisitions, people and sustainment—there have been no significant changes since the March budget. With the Australian dollar at a 20-year low against the US dollar, the Defence budget has received a large automatic top-up to maintain its purchasing, but there’s no adjustment to compensate for inflation. There are a few changes to spending, but they’re broadly consistent with what we would see in a mid-year budget update. For those who follow capability, the top 30 acquisition projects and sustainment products hold some interesting information, but the lists are quite consistent with previous plans. We’ll have to wait for the outcomes of the DSR to see anything new. Similarly there’s been no adjustment to Defence’s personnel allocation since March. But that still means the ADF needs to find roughly 13,000 more people this decade to operate the capabilities on its shopping list, even though it’s only managed to grow by an average of 300 per year since the 2016 White Paper. Smith and Houston may need to consider whether it makes sense to acquire capabilities that the ADF can’t crew, or at least how the ADF can maximise its combat power without many additional people. Of course, another HR strategy is one based on ‘if you build it, they will come.’ The situation is also difficult with Defence’s civilian and external workforce. To deliver its ambitious capability program, Defence has relied on growing numbers of contractors. They’ve helped Defence spend record amounts in its acquisition programs in recent years, despite the impact of Covid-19; however, they come at a cost. That growth may be over; in the October budget, the government is seeking $144.6 million in ‘savings from external labour and savings from advertising, travel and legal expenses’. That’s not a large percentage of Defence’s total budget but, if it means the organisation can’t hire the people it needs to manage the acquisition program, it’s hard to see how Defence will deliver more capability sooner. Overall, while there were no surprises, the October budget hasn’t made the job any easier for Smith and Houston.
Topic:
National Security, Budget, Economy, Industry, and Defense Spending
Political Geography:
Australia and Australia/Pacific