Search

Begin New Search Publication Year within 3 Years Publication Year within 5 Years

8751. How the Caspian Can Help Solve Europe’s Gas Woes: A Close Look at the Trans Caspian Connector Project

Author:
John Roberts
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
The plentiful natural gas reserves in and around the Caspian constitute an obvious medium‑ to long‑term source of supply for Europe. What may be more surprising is that they also constitute the only source of sustained pipeline gas delivery that can improve Europe’s gas balance within months or even weeks. There are four elements that define the issue. The first is Europe’s requirement for gas. The second is the availability of gas for immediate or early input into the equation. The third is the question of the capacity of available infrastructure to carry the gas to market. Finally, there is the question of whether there is the political support to implement such measures.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Infrastructure, Gas, and Regionalism
Political Geography:
Europe

8752. Drones and Resets: The New Era of Turkish Foreign Policy

Author:
Rich Outzen and Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Turkish foreign policy under Recep Tayyip Erdogan has gone through a number of turns since 2003, characterized by the country’s leader continuously taking stock of domestic and global dynamics whilst navigating between the U.S. and Europe, Russia, and the Middle East. He came to power in Ankara 19 years ago after rising through Türkiye’s political Islamist movement, serving first as prime minister and since 2014 as president. Erdogan’s foreign policy approach over two decades can be divided into a number of periods: an initial era of aspirational multilateralism with a strong pro‑EU tilt, until roughly 2009; an ambitious period of regional assertion marked by failed support for the Muslim Brotherhood and the Arab uprisings, until around 2015; an increasingly unilateral, hard‑power driven period through 2020; and what appears to be a new era blending hard power—enabled and symbolized by Turkish drones—and a Ukraine war, in which Türkiye is, simultaneously, selling drones to Kyiv and courting Washington while implementing the 1936 Montreux Treaty to limit its frenemy Moscow’s access to the Black Sea. Together with recent steps aimed at rapprochement with Israel and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), these last factors encapsulate the new era of Turkish foreign policy—albeit one overshadowed at the moment by Ankara’s unwillingness to unconditionally approve Swedish and Finnish accession to NATO.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, and Regionalism
Political Geography:
Europe and Turkey

8753. Türkiye and the Russia-Ukraine War: Impact on the West, Central Asia, and the Caucasus

Author:
Matthew Bryza
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
During a recent webinar, I was asked to address the following question: what does Russia’s invasion of Ukraine mean for Türkiye’s approach to the Caucasus and Central Asia? At first, the question struck me as odd. Having worked on these issues since the late 1990s and now living in Istanbul, it seemed obvious to me that Türkiye’s goals in these regions have been enduring since the end of the Cold War and were not changing because of Russia’s latest invasion of Ukraine. These goals, I said, were and remain to: secure westward exports of oil and natural gas produced in the Caspian Basin; promote stability in the South Caucasus; and strengthen Türkiye’s business and cultural ties with the Turkic populations of Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan. Türkiye’s approach toward Russia in this context also remains what it has been since the Ottoman centuries: cooperate where possible but confront where necessary. Reflecting momentarily on this question, however, I realized how different Ankara’s goals appear from the perspectives of Washington, Paris, and Athens. In these and other NATO capitals, Turkish foreign policy seems to have shifted from its pursuit of “zero problems with neighbors” during the early years of the leadership of Recep Tayyip Erdogan to one of “zero neighbors without problems.” Türkiye is thus viewed within the Atlantic Alliance as a belligerent outlier, bent on violating international law to pursue the extraction of Eastern Mediterranean hydrocarbons, enabling Azerbaijan to use military force during the Second Karabakh War, and aligning in Syria more with Russia than with its own treaty allies.
Topic:
Security, War, Military Strategy, and Regionalism
Political Geography:
Europe and Asia

8754. How the Conflict Over Ukraine Affects Security in the South Caucasus

Author:
Nargiz Gafarova
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Against the background of the present stage of the conflict over Ukraine, the South Caucasus is experiencing perturbation. Three examples rise immediately to mind: elements of the 10 November 2020 tripartite between Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia that ended the Second Karabakh War statement (and the arrangements that have derived from it) are being suboptimally implemented; the leaders of Georgia’s breakaway region of South Ossetia continue to hold out the possibility to conduct a referendum on “unification” with Russia; and the uncertain outcome of the talks in Vienna to revive the Iran nuclear deal. Such and similar examples have led all three South Caucasus states (Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia) to pursue variants of a policy some call “neutrality” and others “hedging” between the parties to the conflict over Ukraine. Located at the intersection of Europe, Russia, and the Greater Middle East—and thus constituting the western part of the Silk Road region, as defined by the Editorial Statement of Baku Dialogues—the South Caucasus is one of the most important and, at the same time, one of the most potentially explosive areas bordering the West. Over the past several decades, developments within all three South Caucasus states have contributed to a general sense of insecurity within the region. These include, most obviously, ethno‑political conflicts, civil wars, and color revolutions; the lackluster development of Western‑style governance institutions; and the widely‑held perception of ongoing high levels of corruption. Even the potentially positive strategic consequences of the outcome of the Second Karabakh War—namely, the prospect for the normalization of two sets of bilateral relationships (Armenia‑Azerbaijan and Armenia‑Türkiye) and the unblocking of all economic and transport connections in the region—have been overshadowed by the ongoing restructuring of world order, manifested by the increase of geopolitical volatility and ambiguity due to the major escalation of the conflict over Ukraine whose present phase began on 24 February 2022. The effects of the Western‑led sanctions and export restrictions regime against Russia have spilled over into the South Caucasus— notwithstanding the fact that none of the region’s states have formally aligned themselves with them. This essay provides an overview of the reverberations of the conflict over Ukraine towards the South Caucasus, with a focus on its impact on the region’s political, economic, and security environment.
Topic:
Security, Military Strategy, Governance, and Regionalism
Political Geography:
Europe, Caucasus, and Asia

8755. ‘Strasbourg’ in the South Caucasus: The EU’s Opportunities, Obstacles, and Incentives

Author:
Rick Fawn
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Implausible might be the hyperbole of “once in a generation.” Occasionally, overstatement is legitimate and necessary. Just as the Baku‑Tbilisi‑Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline revolutionized development and income in the South Caucasus a generation ago, so too (and more) are the prospects of reconstruction in the region due to Azerbaijan’s victory in the Second Karabakh War. The possibilities for win‑win progress and growth are truly unprecedented. Hyperbolic hope faces challenges, and they need reconciliation with the unprecedented opportunities now recasting the South Caucasus— with potential betterment of the peoples and countries of the region, and even for the wider world. This essay first considers the momentous changes already underway as well as the significances they portend. It then assesses obstacles, and thereafter suggests ‘Strasbourg’ as a multi‑faceted label for contributions both to overcome them and help to realize fully the ambitions for this region. To be precise: ‘Strasbourg’ here means the physical, technological, and financial involvement of the EU in regional infrastructural development, including linkages of the South Caucasus more widely, and also as a metaphor for deep‑seated, historically truthful reconciliation. (In the Summer 2021 edition of Baku Dialogues, elements of both meanings were put forward by F. Murat Özkaleli in an article titled “Winning the Peace” and are built upon here.) This thinking takes even greater significance as Euro‑Atlantic planning will concentrate on redefining relations in this region due to conflict over Ukraine.
Topic:
Security, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Regionalism
Political Geography:
Europe, Caucasus, and Asia

8756. The “One China” Issue in U.S.-China Relations

Author:
Zhiqun Zhu
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Armenia in September 2022 caused some limited geopolitical commotion, as most readers of Baku Dialogues are keenly aware. Without downplaying its regional significance in the slightest, it was, however, her visit to Taiwan in August 2022 that made global headlines and triggered a new round of tensions in the Taiwan Strait. At the core of that controversy is the status of Taiwan. While the People’s Republic of China (PRC) condemned the visit as a violation of the “one China principle,” the U.S. government and Pelosi herself insisted that it was consistent with America’s “one China policy.” Five decades after U.S. President Richard Nixon’s historic visit to China, the Taiwan issue remains the most difficult and potentially most explosive dispute between the United States and China. While Beijing maintains that the “one China principle,” with the PRC representing all of China, is the foundation of U.S.‑China relations, Washington emphasizes that its “one China policy” treats Taiwan as a separate entity from the PRC. Meanwhile, Taipei, under the rule of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), has asserted that Taiwan is already independent and the two sides across the Taiwan Strait are not subordinate to each other. As the U.S.‑China rivalry intensifies, Taiwan has quickly re‑emerged as the biggest hot‑button issue between the two great powers. The Taiwan issue is so serious that it routinely tops the agenda of meetings and phone calls between Chinese and U.S. officials, including calls between PRC President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden. Shortly before Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, Xi warned that “those who play with fire will get burned” during a phone call with Biden.
Topic:
Security, Territorial Disputes, Hegemony, Leadership, Rivalry, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

8757. The Lynchpin of the Middle Corridor

Author:
Anthony Kim
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Particularly in today’s evolving geopolitical and economic reality triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Caspian region has gained greater relevance whilst acquiring renewed significance. More specifically, one of the geostrategic consequences of Putin’s ongoing assault against Ukraine and its broader implications for the global economy has been the enhanced impetus for ensuring the pragmatic and strategic utility of the “Middle Corridor” (also more formally known as the Trans‑Caspian International Transport Route, or TITR) for the Caspian region and beyond as a viable commercial transport route alternative to the long‑established northern pathway through Russia. China, which has been eager to expand its economic networks, had hoped to dominate economically the utilization of the Middle Corridor as part of an expanding BRI. But at least some of the countries in the region (and beyond) have grown increasingly uneasy about participating in it. They have viewed China as leaving many of its BRI promises unfulfilled. And they have also become more concerned that Beijing’s BRI engagement comes with too many geopolitical strings attached and can lead to debt traps. By and large, China has invested in a number of infrastructure projects in Central Asia within the framework of BRI. Most of China’s activity has taken place on the eastern shore of the Caspian. Major port, pipeline, and infrastructure projects on the Caspian’s western shore have been done without much, if any, direct Chinese involvement. Making the Middle Corridor work properly is not an easy task: it will take considerable degrees of time, financial means, and political commitment. With many economic and political challenges lingering around, by no means, the cross‑country transportation route could become the cheapest option any time soon. Nonetheless, in an increasingly raucous world where diversifying supply chains reduce risk and has become more desirable, the route could become not only fully viable but, more importantly, truly cost‑effective.
Topic:
Security, Development, Geopolitics, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Europe and Asia

8758. Strategic Opportunity for the Middle Corridor?

Author:
Selcuk Colakoglu
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Connectivity initiatives across the Eurasian landmass have been on global and regional agendas since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, with the newly independent countries of the Silk Road region prioritizing efforts to reach international markets so as to strengthen their strategic independence from Moscow. Amongst the numerous Silk Road connectivity initiatives, the Middle Corridor has the aim of building an efficient East‑West corridor involving countries located between the European Union and China (except for Russia). This essay analyses the pros and cons of the Middle Corridor project from the perspective of some of the countries most concerned, starting with Türkiye. It also examines how the COVID‑19 pandemic and the 2022 Russia‑Ukraine war have affected the implementation of this initiative.
Topic:
Pandemic, COVID-19, Global Health, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Eurasia

8759. Inventory of data on economic activity and deforestation in the Amazon Basin

Author:
Igarapé Institute
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Igarapé Institute
Abstract:
Multiple factors shape land change and land use patterns in the Amazon Basin.This note aims to identify data sources for two specific phenomena: changes in land cover and GHG emissions. It also considers key economic sectors that accelerate deforestation including livestock and agricultural development. To this end, the focus is on available data sources across three countries with an analysis of their geographic scope, depth of detail, and the frequency and periodicity with which they are reported.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Environment, Economy, Carbon Emissions, and Deforestation
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, and Amazon Basin

8760. Connecting the Dots: Territories and Trajectories of Environmental Crime in the Brazilian Amazon and Beyond

Author:
Laura Trajber Waisbich and Terine Husek
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Igarapé Institute
Abstract:
A new study by the Igarapé institute analyzing more than 300 Federal Police operations between 2016 and 2021 found that environmental crime in the Amazon region is not only organized but far more than a local problem. Indeed, this vertibable criminal ecosystem behind Amazon plunder has expanded nationwide, reaching 24 of Brazil’s 27 states as well as neighboring nations. According to the study “Connecting the Dots: Territories and Trajectories of Environmental Crime in the Brazilian Amazon and Beyond”, published Wednesday July 20, the federal operations flagged criminal networks in 846 venues across Brazil and the region. This article is the latest in our series “Mapping Environmental Crime in the Amazon Basin.” The police ops focused largely on the nine states comprising Brazil’s Legal Amazon region, where spreading criminal activities took investigators to 197 municipalities, representing 75% of total interventions. Police also targeted environmental crimes in 57 Brazilian municipalities outside the Amazon region, and another eight cities in neighboring countries. The Federal Police interventions were triggered by unchecked deforestation associated with a variety of unlawful economic activities, from outright crimes to nominally licit market activity tainted by crime. These include illegal timber extraction, illicit mining (especially gold), land grabbing and predatory farming and ranching. This criminal network was first explored in Igarapé’s strategic paper, published earlier this year, “The Ecosystem of Environmental Crime in Amazonia: An Analysis of Illicit Economies in the Forest.” The current study takes a deeper dive into the widening criminal nexus that undergirds environmental crimes and related offenses, including illegal money flows, tax evasion, corruption, fraud and criminal violence.
Topic:
Crime, Environment, Law Enforcement, Deforestation, and Illicit Financial Flows
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, and Amazon Basin

8761. Advancing Youth Inclusion and Violence Prevention through Public Support Programmes

Author:
Jasmina Brankovic
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:
State-run socio-economic and livelihood support programmes have been shown to increase the social inclusion of young people and thereby contribute to the prevention of violence involving youth. This practice brief outlines strategies for civil society practitioners to advocate for these public programmes, improve their implementation and amplify their positive effects, based on experiences in Southern and East Africa.
Topic:
Youth, Violence, Inclusion, and Livelihoods
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, and East Africa

8762. Youth Inclusion in the Development of South Africa's National Youth Policy (2020–2030): Reflections and Recommendations

Author:
Steven Rebello
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:
South Africa's National Youth Policy (NYP) 2020–2030 (DWYPD, 2020) represents the country's third attempt to outline actions that can or should be taken, by government and other stakeholders, to facilitate youth development at local and national levels. Meaningful youth inclusion and participation represents a central value within this policy. This emphasis on inclusion aligns with the Constitution of South Africa, where public participation in governance is enshrined as a constitutional imperative. Recognising this emphasis on youth inclusion, the Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR) engaged with a key representative within the Department of Women, Youth and People with Disabilities (DWYPD) to determine what steps or activities the department has initiated to include youth in the development of the NYP 2020–2030 (hereafter referred to as the NYP 2030).
Topic:
Development, Governance, Youth, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

8763. The Youth's Continent: Meaningful Youth Inclusion in Policy and Programme Cycles

Author:
Steven Rebello, Brian Kimari, and Mwangi Mwaura
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:
This policy brief develops from research carried out by the Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR, South Africa) and the Centre for Human Rights and Policy Studies (CHRIPS, Kenya). Known as the Youth Inclusion for Violence Prevention Project, this research investigated the role of socio-economic and livelihood support programmes in promoting youth social and economic inclusion and preventing violence. A key finding of the research highlighted how such programmes continue to follow a top-down approach, where youth are either merely viewed as beneficiaries or not meaningfully involved in conceptualising, implementing, evaluating and revising such programmes. A discussion around the value of greater youth inclusion is supplemented with examples of how youth may have been more meaningfully included in South Africa's Community Work Programme (CWP) as well as Kenya's Youth Employment Opportunities Project (KYEOP). The brief concludes with recommendations relevant to youth inclusion in these as well as other socio-economic and livelihood support programmes.
Topic:
Employment, Youth, Violence, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

8764. Robots, Exports and Top Income Inequality: Evidence for the U.S.

Author:
Andrés César, Guillermo Falcone, and Pablo Garriga
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
The last decades have witnessed a revolution in manufacturing production characterized by increasing technology adoption and a strong expansion of international trade. Simultaneously, the income distribution has exhibited both polarization and concentration among the richest. Combining datasets from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Internal Revenue Service, the International Federation of Robotics, EU KLEMS, and COMTRADE, we study the causal effect of industrial automation on income inequality in the U.S. during 2010–2015. We exploit spatial and time variations in exposure to robots arising from past differences in industry specialization across U.S. metropolitan areas and the evolution of robot adoption across industries. We document a robust positive impact of robotics on income for only the top 1 percent of taxpayers, which is largest for top income fractiles. Therefore, industrial automation fuels income inequality and, particularly, top income inequality. According to our estimates, one more robot per thousand workers results in relative increments of the total taxable income accruing to fractiles P99 to P99.9, P99.9 to P99.99 and P99.99 to P100, of 2.1 percent, 3.5 percent and 5.9 percent, respectively. We also find that robotization leads to increased exports to high-income and upper-middle-income economies, and that this is one of the key mechanisms behind the surge in top income inequality.
Topic:
Income Inequality, Exports, Automation, and Robotics
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

8765. Discrimination Against Gay and Transgender People in Latin America: A Correspondence Study in the Rental Housing Market

Author:
Nicolás Abbate, Inés Berniell, Joaquín Coleff, Luis Laguinge, Margarita Machelett, Mariana Marchionni, Julian Pedrazzi, and Maria Florencia Pinto
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
We assess the extent of discrimination against gay and transgender individuals in the rental housing markets of four Latin American countries. We conducted a large-scale field experiment building on the correspondence study methodology to examine interactions between property managers and fictitious couples engaged in searches in a major online rental housing platform. We find evidence of discriminatory behavior against heterosexual couples where the female partner is a transgender women (trans couples): they receive 19% fewer responses, 27% fewer positive responses, and 23% fewer invitations to showings than heterosexual couples. However, we find no evidence of discrimination against gay male couples. We also assess whether the evidence is consistent with taste-based discrimination or statistical discrimination models by comparing response rates when couples signal a high socioeconomic status (high SES). While we find no significant effect of the signal on call-back rates or the type of response for high-SES heterosexual or gay male couples, trans couples benefit when they signal a high SES. Their call-back, positive-response, and invitation rates increase by 25%, 36% and 29%, respectively. These results suggest the presence of discrimination against trans couples in the Latin American online rental housing market, which seems consistent with statistical discrimination. Moreover, we find no evidence of heterosexual couples being favoured over gay male couples, nor evidence of statistical discrimination for gay male or heterosexual couples.
Topic:
Discrimination, LGBT+, Housing, Rent, and Transgender
Political Geography:
Latin America

8766. The Short-Term Labor Market Impact of Venezuelan Immigration in Peru

Author:
Celia P. Vera and Juan Pablo Jiménez
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
Peru is the second-largest recipient of Venezuelans worldwide. We combine newly available data on Venezuelans living in Peru and the Peruvian Household Survey to assess the impact of Venezuelan migration on natives’ wages and employment. The initial regression analysis exploits the variation in supply shifts across education-experience groups over time. It indicates that immigration in Peru had no adverse impact on native wages. However, the paper highlights that in Peru immigrants and natives with similar education and experience are likely to work in different occupations. The subsequent analysis based on occupational clustering confirms the null effect on wages and indicates that a 20% increase in immigrants decreases formal employment by 6%. We do not find evidence for changes in employment composition toward informality so that migration operates through the extensive margin of employment. We report evidence in favor of immigrants being a close substitute to the least productive natives, suggesting that firms substitute native formal labor for low-cost immigrant informal labor.
Topic:
Education, Immigration, Labor Market, and Informal Economy
Political Geography:
South America, Venezuela, and Peru

8767. Intergenerational Mobility of Economic Well-being in Latin America

Author:
Guido Neidhöfer, Matias Ciaschi, and Leonardo Gasparini
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
We estimate, for the first time, long-run trends in intergenerational economic mobility for a multitude of countries in Latin America going beyond parent-child correlations in educational attainment. We use several indicators of well-being, such as the socio-economic situation of individuals, job stability, homeownership and assets. Unlike estimates based on education, which mostly show increasing social mobility trends, we find that opportunities to achieve a certain level of economic well-being and climb up the social ladder are rather unequally distributed and have not changed much over time in Latin America.
Topic:
Inequality, Economy, Economic Mobility, and Well-Being
Political Geography:
Latin America

8768. Does the Minimum Wage Affect Wage Inequality? A Study for the Six Largest Latin American Economies

Author:
Carlo Lombardo, Lucía Ramírez-Leira, and Leonardo Gasparini
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
Minimum wage (MW) policies are widespread in the developing world and yet their effects are still unclear. In this paper we explore the effect of national MW policies in Latin America’s six largest economies by exploiting the heterogeneity in the bite of the national minimum wage across local labor markets and over time. We find evidence that the MW has a compression effect on the wage distribution of formal workers. The effect was particularly large during the 2000s, a decade of sustained growth and strong labor markets. In contrast, the effect seems to vanish in the 2010s, a decade of much weaker labor markets. We also find suggestive evidence of a lighthouse effect: the MW seems to have an equalizing effect also on the wage distribution of informal workers.
Topic:
Income Inequality, Economy, Labor Market, Minimum Wage, and Informal Economy
Political Geography:
South America and Latin America

8769. Going Green: Estimating the Potential of Green Jobs in Argentina

Author:
Natalia Porto, Pablo de la Vega, and Manuela Cerimelo
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This paper aims to identify and characterize the potential of green jobs in Argentina, i.e., those that would benefit from a transition to a green economy, using occupational green potential scores calculated in US O*NET data. We apply the greenness scores to Argentine household survey data and estimate that 25% of workers are in green jobs, i.e., have a high green potential. However, when taking into account the informality dimension, we find that 15% of workers and 12% of wage earners are in formal green jobs. We then analyze the relationship between the greenness scores (with emphasis on the nexus with decent work) and various labor and demographic variables at the individual level. We find that for the full sample of workers the green potential is relatively greater for men, the elderly, those with very high qualifications, those in formal positions, and those in specific sectors such as construction, transportation, mining, and industry. These are the groups that are likely to be the most benefited by the greening of the Argentine economy. When we restrict the sample to wage earners, the green potential score is positively associated with informality.
Topic:
Labor Market, Green Jobs, and Green Economy
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

8770. Cumulative climate shocks and migratory flows: evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Salvatore Di Falco, Anna B. Kis, and Martina Viarengo
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Environmental Studies, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:
We re-examine the effects of negative weather anomalies during the growing season on the decision to migrate in rural households in five sub-Saharan African countries. To this end we combine a multi-country household panel dataset with high-resolution gridded precipitation data. We find that while the effect of recent adverse weather shocks is on average modest, the cumulative effect of a persistent exposure to droughts over several years leads to a significant increase in the probability to migrate. The results show that more frequent adverse shocks can have more significant and long-lasting consequences in challenging economic environments.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Migration, and Drought
Political Geography:
Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

8771. A Framework for Assessing Implementation of Economic Inclusion Programmes in Uganda

Author:
Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:
Reducing inequality and inclusive growth are at the top of the global development agenda. The theme of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is to “end poverty in all its forms everywhere by 2030”. SDG 8 specifi cally addresses inclusive and sustainable growth. The eradication of poverty and attaining middle income status remains Uganda’s main national development goal as laid out in the National Development Plan (NDP III) 2020/21 – 2024/25. Whereas Uganda experienced sustained economic growth during the pre-Covid-19 period, there were indications that poverty was not reducing, and that inequality was increasing. The Covid-19 pandemic and prolonged lock down exacerbated the situation with almost 3% of the people falling into poverty and compounding inequality. As the world and the country builds back, there is need for specifi c focus of those excluded from economic opportunities. Economic Empowerment Programmes (EIPs) are increasingly being used the world over as vehicles for achieving inclusive economic growth. EIPs have been described as ‘a bundle of coordinated multidimensional interventions that support individuals, households and communities in increasing incomes and assets. For Uganda, implementation of the EIP has been aff ected by poor design and implementation as well as corruption that have rendered the EIPs ineff ective. At the same time, performance evaluations of the EIPs undertaken have had limited infl uence on the design of subsequent programmes. In many cases same interventions have been repackaged under diff erent names and touted as new programmes. There is no doubt that improving the plight of the poor and other categories of people excluded from economic opportunities will require eff ective implementation of EIPs. This Framework for Assessing Implementation of EIPs in Uganda is part of eff orts to improve implementation of the EIP. It is motivated by the inadequacy of existing frameworks to cause change in the design and execution of EIPs in Uganda. The framework is rooted in social accountability and builds on previous works of the Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE) on governance and public expenditure analysis and monitoring. The theory of change for this EIP framework is assess, disseminate, advocate. By assessing the designs and implementation of EIPs and disseminating the fi ndings of the assessment to implementers and benefi ciaries and using the fi ndings for advocacy, then the design and implementation of EIPs will improve and with it the likelihood of achieving programme outcomes and ultimately impact. The framework has six assessment areas namely programme design, effi cacy, quality of M&E, effi ciency, compliance, and risk management. It is guided by the following principles: social accountability, participation, empowerment for engagement, learning and optimisation.
Topic:
Development, Economy, Policy Implementation, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

8772. TOSSD Data for 2020: An overview of key trends in the data in support of sustainable development

Author:
Brian Tomlinson
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Data on total official support for sustainable development (TOSSD) take a recipient perspective, in contrast to official development assistance (ODA) data, which take a donor perspective. The TOSSD metric captures development resource flows that are not included in donors’ reports to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s Development Assistance Committee, and are intended to link resource flows to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). For 2020, 98 donors reported TOSSD data, an increase of six donors from 2019. Reported net disbursements totaled $291 billion, including $62 billion reported only to TOSSD. The top five sectors in TOSSD reporting, accounting for 65% of net disbursements, were energy, donor administrative costs, in-donor refugee costs, health, and government and civil society. For those disbursements linked to one or more of the SDGs, 61% went to the Health, Poverty Eradication, Climate Change, support for Decent Work and Sustainable Economic Growth, Ending Hunger, and Partnerships SDGs. The gender equality SDG was allocated just 4.5% of total net disbursements. TOSSD data provided a foundation of activity level detail to enable further research on allocations to SDGs. The picture that TOSSD data provide could be more complete if additional donors submitted reports to TOSSD, and if all donors reported on links to SDGs.
Topic:
Development, Sustainable Development Goals, Sustainability, and Gender
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8773. The Commitment to Reducing Inequality Index 2022

Author:
Jo Walker, Matthew Martin, Emma Seery, Nabil Abdo, Anthony Kamande, and Max Lawson
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The 2022 Commitment to Reducing Inequality (CRI) Index is the first detailed analysis published looking at governments’ policies and actions to fight inequality during the first two years of the pandemic. This fourth edition of the CRI Index reviews the spending, tax and labour policies and actions of 161 governments during 2020–2022. COVID-19 has increased inequality worldwide, as the poorest people were hit hardest by both the disease and its profound economic impacts. Yet the CRI 2022 Index shows clearly that most of the world’s governments failed to mitigate this dangerous rise in inequality. Despite the biggest global health emergency in a century, half of low-and lower-middle-income countries saw the share of health spending fall during the pandemic, half of the countries tracked by the CRI Index cut the share of social protection spending, 70% cut the share of education spending, while two-thirds of countries failed to increase their minimum wage in line with gross domestic product (GDP). Ninety-five percent of countries failed to increase taxation of the richest people and corporations. At the same time, a small group of governments from across the world bucked this trend, taking clear actions to combat inequality, putting the rest of the world to shame.
Topic:
GDP, Inequality, Tax Systems, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8774. Lives at Risk: A study of girls dropping out of school in Juba, Rumbek and Pibor Counties, South Sudan

Author:
Lillian Rutandaro, Christine Lundambuyu Minalula, Rogers Otuta, and Manenji Mangundu
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
This study was undertaken by Oxfam in three South Sudanese counties as part of the SIDA-funded project 'Building Resilience through Gender and Conflict-Sensitive Approaches to Education, Skills Development, and Sustainable Livelihoods'. Its purpose was to shed light on why so many girls drop out of school. The research revealed that women and girls often lack decision-making power over their lives. Early or forced marriage, the abduction of girls, perceptions that education delays marriage – and that educated girls risk not finding husbands – all contribute to dropout rates. Additional challenges include a lack of adequate hygiene and sanitation facilities in schools, the distances learners need to travel, insecurity caused by communal violence, floods, food insecurity, and a heavy household work burden. The Government of South Sudan has in place laws and policies to address these issues, but they remain largely on paper and enforcement mechanisms are weak. The report analyses each of these factors in turn and presents recommendations for how the SIDA project can begin to address them in its future programming.
Topic:
Development, Education, Food, Conflict, Resilience, and Gender
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

8775. Decolonize! What does it mean?

Author:
Sara Duvisac
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
This document introduces the key concepts of decolonial theory that inform many current calls to decolonize. It provides examples from Latin America, Africa, and North America of how activists have envisioned or realized decolonial futures. These movements led by Indigenous Peoples, people of color, women, and queer people articulate and define the possibilities of decolonial futures. Since decolonial theory suggests multiple futures and not one single solution, this document does not address what decolonizing particular systems, such as international development, should look like. Rather, the document aims to introduce the reader to the tools of analysis that decolonial theory offers, give examples of decolonial theory in practice, and discuss some potential shortfalls of the decolonial framework.
Topic:
Political Theory, Colonialism, Decolonization, and Diversity
Political Geography:
Africa, Latin America, and North America

8776. Footing the Bill: Fair finance for loss and damage in an era of escalating climate impacts

Author:
Tracy Carty and Lyndsay Walsh
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The world has entered a new and dangerous era of climate change impacts, causing huge loss and damage and driving up inequality in the world’s poorest countries and communities that have contributed least to the climate crisis. New research by Oxfam estimates that funding requirements for UN humanitarian appeals linked to extreme weather are eight times higher than they were 20 years ago, and over the past five years nearly half of appeal requirements have gone unmet. Funding for emergency humanitarian response is piecemeal and painfully inadequate, as is broader support to address loss and damage such as rebuilding homes and vital infrastructure. Scaled-up financial support from governments, corporations and individuals most responsible for causing the climate crisis, and most able to pay, is an immediate necessity. A new finance facility must be created to help ensure that finance to address loss and damage is accessible and sustained, is additional to adaptation, mitigation and ODA commitments, and is delivered in accordance with the principles of climate justice.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Infrastructure, and Finance
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8777. Asia’s Extreme Inequality Crisis: Building back fairer after COVID-19

Author:
Matthew Martin
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
COVID-19 has exacerbated Asia’s crisis of extreme inequality. This is undermining growth and preventing poverty eradication. Asian governments have done almost nothing to combat this rise in inequality and are constrained in their policy choices as debt burdens grow and post-COVID austerity begins. A few Asian governments have done a lot to fight inequality during COVID-19 through equitable public services, progressive taxation and enhanced labour rights, especially for women, but most have not. This paper lays out a comprehensive set of measures that Asian governments, the Asian Development Bank and the international community could use to significantly reduce inequality, eradicate poverty and accelerate growth in Asia.
Topic:
Poverty, Governance, Pandemic, COVID-19, Banking, and Equality
Political Geography:
Asia

8778. Climate Finance in West Africa: Assessing the state of climate finance in one of the world’s regions worst hit by the climate crisis

Author:
Norman Martin Casas and Azara Remalia Sanogo
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
In West Africa/Sahel, countries and their communities are experiencing the worst impacts of the climate crisis. Elsewhere, Paris Agreement climate finance commitments are set to prioritise the countries that are most impacted by climate change. However, new research by Oxfam shows that, despite West Africa/Sahel being one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable regions, the international climate finance received falls far short of meeting national climate finance needs and is being significantly over-reported in favour of debt instruments. Adaptation finance is also insufficient. Reported climate finance does not place gender equality at the centre, and only a small part directly reaches local actors. In light of this, developed countries and other donors should scale up grant-based adaptation finance that reaches the local level and responds to the real needs of particularly hard-hit regions such as West Africa/Sahel.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Environment, and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa, West Africa, and Sahel

8779. Unaccountable Accounting: The World Bank’s unreliable climate finance reporting

Author:
Jason Farr, James Morrissey, and Christian Donaldson
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Despite being the largest multilateral provider of climate finance, the World Bank supplies very little evidence to support its claims about the amount of climate finance it provides. Oxfam has attempted to recreate the Bank’s reported climate finance figures using public information for projects in the Bank’s FY2020. Oxfam found that the Bank’s current climate finance reporting processes are such that its claimed levels of climate finance cannot be independently verified and could be off by as much as $7bn, or 40%. Without better disclosure practices, the World Bank is asking us to take much on faith. Climate finance funding is too important for us to do that. The World Bank must be more transparent in its reporting so that it can be held to account.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, International Cooperation, World Bank, Climate Finance, and Banking
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8780. Seeking Safety: Roma Refugees in Moldova – Challenges and humanitarian needs

Author:
Charlotte Greener and Emly de Andrade Costa
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The war in Ukraine has displaced millions of people to neighbouring countries – but some groups who already face poverty and discrimination in society, including Roma people, are facing particular challenges accessing the safety they need. This paper outlines the results of Oxfam’s rapid assessment of Roma refugees in Moldova in July 2022, highlighting the challenges that Roma refugees face when trying to access assistance, and some key humanitarian needs of these refugees. It aims to help amplify the voice of Roma refugees and to inform a humanitarian response – from the Moldovan government, United Nations (UN) agencies, and non-government organizations (NGOs) – that is more inclusive of Roma refugees, and more responsive to their particular needs.
Topic:
International Cooperation, United Nations, Refugees, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Moldova

8781. Climate finance in Asia: Assessing the state of climate finance in one of the world’s most climate vulnerable regions

Author:
Christopher Roy
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Asia is particularly vulnerable to climate hazards including extreme temperatures, flooding, droughts, cyclones, and sea level rise. The most vulnerable communities need financial support to help adapt to the climate crisis – they cannot do so alone. Developed countries have promised $100 bn in climate finance to developing countries every year until 2025. This promise has not been met. Asian countries have outlined the support they require and delivering on these needs is integral to bringing climate justice to those most vulnerable to – yet least responsible for – the climate crisis. We find that the climate finance provided to Asia is woefully inadequate to support the necessary adaptation actions and vulnerable communities are suffering as a result.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Finance, and Climate Finance
Political Geography:
Asia

8782. The Assault of Austerity: How prevailing economic policy choices are a form of gender-based violence

Author:
Dana Abed and Fatimah Kelleher
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
This briefing paper argues that austerity measures are a form of gender-based violence against women, girls and non-binary people, and lays out clear examples of how fiscal consolidation affects them. Its core argument is that ending austerity must be a priority. The policies that deliver austerity’s deadly consequences can no longer be marketed as the ‘logical’ and ‘inevitable’ economic options that they have been for decades, and certainly not by any government that claims a commitment to gender equality or ending gender-based violence. Austerity takes away from those who need it most, while ignoring common-sense ways to improve both revenue and prosperity. The paper goes on to share feminist economic alternatives offer pathways that can protect the Majority World from completely avoidable suffering.
Topic:
Economics, Gender Based Violence, Identity, and Gender
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8783. A Revitalized NATO and Its "New Strategic Concept" Amin Global and Regional Changes

Author:
E. Fuat Keyman
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
At the beginning of 2022, just as the globalizing world was entering the postCovid period and the United Nations Climate Change Conference declared a “code red” emergency for the climate crisis at COP 27, a strategically calculated move came from Russian President Vladimir Putin to unlawfully invade Ukraine. From the beginning, the invasion of Ukraine has generated impacts much larger and more transformative than any previous crisis, triggering serious crisis-ridden developments in the international system and globalization and forcing national governments and global actors to recalibrate and reposition. It is in this global and broader context NATO’s Madrid Summit and its “new Strategic Concept” should be analyzed and assessed. This paper argues that the summit is historic, necessary, but not sufficient. To substantiate this argument, it analyzes is NATO’s new strategic concept in detail, exploring its critical importance, its transformative effect and the six challenges that it faces.
Topic:
Security, Military Strategy, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

8784. NATO's Changing Priorities

Author:
Ahmet O Evin
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine seems to have led, with very few exceptions, to greater cooperation among members of the Western alliance and brought the transatlantic partners closer to one another. As a result, NATO, which has undergone several changes since the end of the Cold War, has regained its key role as the cornerstone of the West’s collective security interests. In its enhanced position, NATO also appears to be emerging as the champion of the liberal order as well as the universal values embraced by transatlantic partners. Yet, it may also be facing new challenges both from within, particularly in the case of a prolonged conflict in Europe, and from China, which is demonstrating increasing rivalry to the West.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Military Strategy, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

8785. Geopolitical Consequences of the War in Ukraine

Author:
John Rennie Short
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
The Russian invasion of Ukraine signals a new world order that has developed from the bipolar world of 1945 to 1991 and the brief unipolar interlude from 1991 to 2008. This new world order is dominated by a relatively declining U.S. and an emerging Sino-Russo anti American alliance, a renewed sense of the West as a counter to authoritarian regimes and reversal of the globalization trends of the past thirty years. We are moving into a deglobalizing, multipolar world.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Conflict, Strategic Interests, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

8786. Future Uncertain: NATO in a Post-Quantum Post-AI World

Author:
James Sperling
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
The emerging and disruptive technologies of the 21st century—artificial intelligence and quantum technologies—confront NATO with a paradox: the integration of those technologies into national armed forces will significantly narrow and possibly invert the systemic technology dominance NATO has enjoyed since 1945 and widen the technology gap within the Alliance with potentially debilitating consequences for operational effectives and allied cohesion. The precise impact of these disruptive technologies must remain largely speculative, but it is certain that they will change the nature of war-fighting, exacerbate the security dilemma, and precipitate in a recalibration of the global balance of power.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Regional Cooperation, Science and Technology, Military Strategy, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

8787. Russia's Assault on Ukraine: Fallout From the War

Author:
Dina R. Spechler and Martin C. Spechler
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
The war between Russia and Ukraine that began on 24 February 2022, has now gone on for more than four months. It has already taken a severe toll on much of the world and will cause much more harm the longer it continues. Moreover, it does not seem likely to end soon. Russian President Vladimir Putin recently declared that Russia has barely begun its military operation in Ukraine. He has clearly stated his goal of taking the entire Donbas. Success in that endeavor may motivate him to continue the fight for other objectives, including the major industrial center of Kharkiv, the key Black Sea port of Odesa, and perhaps even Kyiv and its environs. For his part, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly said his goal is to push Russia back to the line it occupied on 23 February. His Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba has spoken of winning back the entire Donbas and liberating “the rest of our territory.” The U.S. Director of National Intelligence has predicted that a “grinding struggle” may continue for a long time. This article will explore some of the consequences of the war already in evidence
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

8788. Geopolitics, Geography an the Ukrainian Russian War

Author:
Serdar Ş. Güner
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
The trigger of the Ukraine-Russia war is the enlargement of NATO, essentially a Western exploitation of Russian weakness emanating from Soviet Union’s dissolution. Russia has communicated her reactions to the enlargement peacefully until the prospect of Ukraine becoming a NATO member. The second wave of enlargement coming from the direction of neutral states such Finland and Sweden originates from Finnish and Swedish fears of being the next targets of Russian military campaigns. NATO enlargement to Ukraine has caused Russia-Ukraine war that in turn has caused some neutral states to leave their neutrality and become NATO members. Therefore, NATO expansion efforts has led to a further expansion through war. However, the exclusion of and warring with Russia only obliterates the opportunity to form a large alliance to balance China. The West should understand that it is not wise to create incentives for the formation of a Sino-Russian alliance.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Conflict, Geography, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

8789. The Historical Roots of NATO Engagement in the Mediterranean

Author:
Matteo Gerlini
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
The new strategic concept of the alliance looks at the Mediterranean situation as a shift in the engagement with a history that is as old as the origins of the Western bloc. In this history, the Italian role has been an example for the other Mediterranean countries that later joined NATO. The steps in the construction of the Atlantic coalition started also in Mediterranean with U.S. military engagement grounded in Truman’s doctrine. Twenty years late, the North Atlantic Council’s report on the alliance’s future tasks examined crucial “exposed areas” for NATO, and first among them was the Mediterranean. After the collapse of the Soviet system, NATO worked on a relationship of coexistence and cooperation with Russia. The ongoing invasion in Ukraine has thwarted years of discussion and work, but the partnerships promoted by NATO with the countries of the so-called enlarged Mediterranean stand as a success story.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Europe and Mediterranean

8790. The Future of Women, Peace, and Security at NATO

Author:
Diana Morais, Samantha Turner, and Katharine A.M. Wright
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
In a ground-breaking move, Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) features prominently in NATO’s Strategic Concept for the first time, a powerful signal that it will form a central part of NATO’s changing priorities going forward. At the same time, there have been significant gendered silences in NATO and its allies’ response to the Russia-Ukraine War, undermining these policy aspirations. This is despite over a decade of significant investment in the WPS architecture across NATO’s political and military structures, including the creation of a high-level Special Representative on Women, Peace, and Security, reporting directly to the Secretary General and supporting a comprehensive WPS policy adopted in conjunction with NATO partners. Focus therefore needs to be given to what NATO can do to operationalize the WPS aspirations of the new Strategic Concept in practice.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Women, and Peace
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

8791. A Compass and a Concept: A Guide to the EU and NATO Strategic Outlooks

Author:
Ricardo Borges de Castro and Rita Barbosa Lobo
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
Russia’s war of aggression on Ukraine launched on 24 February 2022 upended Europe’s security order. The invasion was a wake-up call that peace in the continent should not be taken for granted and a catalyst for change at European and transatlantic level. The EU adopted a long-term Strategic Compass for security and defense. NATO, no longer “braindead,” issued a new Strategic Concept for the coming decade and is expanding. While there is convergence in strategic outlooks, questions remain on how both organizations will cooperate and coordinate their actions, implement the investment, troops and capabilities’ goals set in each document as well as deal with countries such as China.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Military Strategy, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

8792. NATO After Madrid: Preparing for an Age of Confrontation and Disruption

Author:
Daniel S. Hamilton
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
NATO’s Madrid Summit in June 2022 was potentially transformative. Allied leaders agreed to a fundamental shift in NATO’s deterrence and defense posture and to continue the fight against terrorism. They committed to long-term support for Ukraine, they invited Finland and Sweden to join the Alliance, and they unveiled a new NATO Strategic Concept. Alliance members must now translate words into deeds. They must move from deterrence by reinforcement to deterrence by denial. They must bolster their resilience to disruptive forces. They need to offer Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova and other partners what they need to defend themselves. They must address the China challenge. And they must rebalance transatlantic defense burdens by boosting European capabilities.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

8793. NATO: The Importance of Activism in the Mediterranean Scenario

Author:
Lorenzo Somigli
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
The secure defense of NATO members does not depend on the Kyiv frontline; the southern flank is the most unguarded. This paper deals with the Mediterranean, a closed sea without borders which globalized before globalization, examining some strategic alternatives for Western allies. The Mediterranean is a point of contact, a diaphragm, and a battlefield. In addition, the central Mediterranean is a relevant area where Russia and China have their foot in the door because of the disengagement of France and Italy and the lack of attention of NATO. It is precisely on this weaker frontier that NATO must relaunch its commitment and presence. Defending marine spaces determines the continent’s safety. So, losing the Mediterranean can be disastrous. And finally, it examines Italian policy in the Mediterranean to date and the reasons why Italy can and must correct the strabismus of the USA, which is completely looking at the Indo-Pacific, and of imagines a peripheral Europe without politics.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Military Strategy, and Activism
Political Geography:
Europe and Mediterranean

8794. Change an Continuity in NATO's Nuclear Priorities

Author:
Spenser A. Warren
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
NATO’s new Strategic Concept highlights areas of change and continuity in nuclear priorities. These priorities will be driven by a combination of global and domestic political factors. In this article, I argue that the continued threat posed by Russia, the growth of the anti-nuclear movement in Europe, the rise of China, and the emergence of new nuclear technologies will drive NATO nuclear priorities for the foreseeable future. Russian aggression drives continuity in NATO nuclear priorities, as Russia has been, and will remain, the primary threat to NATO security. Meanwhile, the other factors will combine to force changes to NATO nuclear priorities and policies.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

8795. Monitoring the Inclusiveness of Ghana’s Planting for Food and Jobs Program in the Bosome Freho and Saboba Districts

Author:
William Quarmine
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Ghana Center for Democratic Development
Abstract:
In line with CDD-Ghana’s Promoting Fiscal Justice for Socio-Economic Transformation (PFJSET) project objectives, a pilot study was conducted in August 2018 to assess the implementation of the government’s Planting for Food and Jobs (PFJ) program. The primary focus of the assessment centered on the extent to which the PFJ program implementation includes vulnerable farmers in the distribution of program resources. Two study sites in the Bosome Freho and Saboba districts in the Ashanti and Northern regions respectively were selected for the study. Data for this study was derived from key informant interviews of program implementers, and from selected beneficiary and non-beneficiary farmers using a semi-structured questionnaire. The findings from this study were validated through two district level workshops – one in each of the sampled districts as well as other engagements with key stakeholders, such as officials of the PFJ Secretariat at the Ministry of Food and Agriculture (MoFA), some development partners and civil society groups. This report incorporates new information, clarification and inputs made during these validation meetings.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Food Security, Inclusion, and Farmers
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

8796. Lecture: The Evolution of the Civic Space in Modern African Democracy

Author:
Idayat Hassan and Kwame Karikari
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Ghana Center for Democratic Development
Abstract:
Over the last decade, the world has witnessed a decline in democracy and the closing of civic spaces – the bedrock of democratic society through which citizens and civil society organizations are able to organize, participate and communicate without hindrance. These two phenomena have dominated conversations on various platforms globally and have intensified since the COVID-19 pandemic hit. Democratic backsliding and shrinking civic space in our part of the world represent a major setback for the region and its people. This lecture seeks to deliberate on these evolving issues and offer practical recommendations aimed at influencing urgent interventions that will help halt democratic backsliding and the closing of democratic civic spaces.
Topic:
Civil Society, Governance, Democracy, COVID-19, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

8797. Violent Extremist and Terrorist Threats: Examining Ghana’s Preparedness

Author:
Mawusi Yaw Dumenu
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Ghana Center for Democratic Development
Abstract:
The growing spate of violent extremism and terrorism in the sub-region spells doom for the attainment of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly Goal 16 which focuses on Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions. Ghana is now the only country among the earlier mentioned coastal states that has not suffered from any violent extremist and terrorist violence. This notwithstanding, there have been several alarming incidents involving extremist attacks that have occurred in close proximity to Ghana’s borders.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

8798. Taiwan’s Local Elections: Defeat of the Ruling DPP Amidst Negative Campaigns

Author:
Kai-Ping Huang
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Taiwan held “nine-in-one” local elections on November 26, 2022, and the ruling Democratic Progressive Party(DPP) lost many seats amidst negative campaigns, while the KMT emerged as the winner of the election. However, Kai-Ping Huang, an Associate Professor of Political Science at National Taiwan University, evaluates the biggest losers are voters who were not offered quality campaigns. Professor Huang defines the campaign’s major issues as Scandals of Plagiarism, Poor Quality of Infrastructure, Discredited Pandemic Control Performance and Economic Difficulties and Anti-China Campaign Backlash. In addition, she states that it is too early to say whether the KMT will have an advantage in the upcoming presidential election. The KMT must clarify its position on national identity. The Taipei voters don`t appreciate what the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) has done to the capital, and most voters do not believe that the TPP is a credible alternative to the two mainstream parties. Therefore, TPP needs to coordinate with the KMT to defeat the ruling DPP can be an option.
Topic:
Education, Elections, Democracy, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Taiwan and Asia

8799. Sustaining Democratic Unity for Ukraine’s Victory and South Korea’s Roles in This

Author:
Yang Gyu Kim
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
The war situation regarding Russia and Ukraine seems to be changing, as Kherson has recently returned to Ukraine. Yang Gyu Kim, a principal researcher at the East Asia Institute, considers the Russia-Ukraine war a “war of value,” and stresses that Ukraine’s victory is highly important, since it involves the restoration of global governance and has strategic implications in various regions around the world. Considering the post-war measures, Kim argues that the most contentious issue to be addressed is the genocide committed by Russian troops toward Ukraine civilians. While various reports confirm the allegations of genocide, he explains establishing its allegations and filing the case to the International Court of Justice remain challenging. Finally, Kim suggests three things that the Korean government can consider to help Ukraine: closely cooperating with the United States and Japan to sanction Russia, providing further humanitarian aid to Kyiv, and supporting Ukraine to win the legal fight in proving the war crimes as genocide.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Genocide, Democracy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Asia, and South Korea

8800. Russia’s Partial Mobilization: Issues Pertaining Russian Migrants in Mongolia

Author:
Ariunbayar Bazarvaani
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
The Kremlin recently announced a partial mobilization decree amid the continuing war between Russia and Ukraine. Along with the partial mobilization decree, the Kremlin also amended the Criminal Code that stipulates severe punishment for voluntary surrender and people who deserted from military service. While the Mongolian government holds an abstemious position towards the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Mr. Ariunbayar Bazarvaani, CEO of The Academy of Political Education, states that the non-governmental organizations in Mongolia are keeping an eye on the Russian migrants who had fled from Russia to evade mobilization. He also introduces a survey addressing Russian refugees` challenges and urges the Mongolian government to consider these issues and approach the crisis with an awareness of democracy, human rights, and freedom. Specifically, he argues that the Mongolian government should actively involve Mongolian NGOs to offer a favorable environment, including employment, and thus be recognized as a country that endorses democracy and human rights.
Topic:
Democracy, Migrants, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Mongolia, and Asia