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8552. Protesting Against Crime and Insecurity: High-Risk Activism in Mexico's Drug War
- Author:
- Sandra J. Ley Gutiérrez
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kellogg Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- When do protests against crime and insecurity take place, regardless of the risks that such mobilization may entail? This paper argues that while violence provides an initial motivation for participating in protests, social networks play a fundamental role in incentivizing citizen mobilization against insecurity. Socialization within networks helps generate solidarity and empathy among participants, while at the same time transforming emotions associated with living in a violent context into potential for action. Also, through networks, individuals share information about opportunities for collective action and change their perceptions about the effectiveness and risks of such activism. These distinct mechanisms are valuable for the activation of protest against crime across levels of violence. Supporting evidence is derived from an original dataset on protest events in reaction to violence in Mexico between 2006 and 2012. Additionally, I rely on qualitative in-depth interviews and participant observation to illustrate the role of networks in protest against crime across several Mexican states. This paper contributes to the growing literature on criminal violence and political participation.
- Topic:
- Security, Civil Society, Crime, Social Movement, Protests, Violence, Social Networks, and Activism
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, North America, and Mexico
8553. Democracy and Urban Political Culture in Spanish South America, 1810-1860
- Author:
- Paula Alonso and Marcela Ternavasio
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kellogg Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- “Democracy,” a word seldom used in public debate at the start of the nineteenth century and negatively associated with tumult, disorder, and direct rule, in a few decades became linked to representative government and increasingly employed with positive connotations. This paper argues that these conceptual changes should be explored in their political and social contexts, since the term “democracy” was invoked to (de)legitimate certain political practices and social sectors. Therefore, in exploring this non-linear process in Spanish America, these pages focus on the interactions between the emerging language of democracy and its varied meanings and uses in urban politics. These interactions were part of the factional disputes on how to implement the principle of popular sovereignty. Starting with an overview of selected emerging political practices during the Independence period, the paper then focuses on Lima and Buenos Aires, two regions with contrasting colonial pasts, responses to Spanish crises, and post-independence paths, showing how the concept of democracy could be put to varied uses according to different contexts and political objectives.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Governance, Culture, Democracy, Citizenship, and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- Argentina, South America, Latin America, and Peru
8554. Democracy in the Middle East & North Africa
- Author:
- Michael Robbins
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Arab Barometer
- Abstract:
- Citizens across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are growing increasingly concerned about the potential problems associated with a democratic political system. Over the last decade, but particularly within the last five years, there has been a dramatic increase in the degree to which the region’s citizens believe democracies are bad for economic performance, stability, and decisiveness. In some countries, the degree to which concern about these potential problems has increased is especially dramatic. For example, Tunisians and Iraqis are now nearly 50 points more likely to say that democracy has some of these limitations than they were just a decade ago. Ultimately, citizens across MENA seek solutions to major problems in their lives. These include but are not limited to stagnant economies, high unemployment rates, rising cost of living, and, in some countries, internal instability. Until recently, many appeared to believe that democracy was a system that could solve such challenges. Over the last 75 years, democracies have tended to be wealthier, more politically stable, less corrupt, and more efficient at meeting the basic needs of citizens than authoritarian alternatives.1 In recent years, however, many non-democratic systems may appear more attractive, including the Chinese system that has led to rapid economic growth over the last 40 years. In this new global environment, many in MENA appear uncertain if democracy can effectively deliver solutions to their country’s problems.2 Moreover, looking at the experience of MENA countries over the last decade, it is perhaps not surprising that the region’s citizens have increasing doubts about the benefits of democracy. Tunisia, Lebanon, and Iraq are the countries across the region where elections have been the most meaningful over the past decade, with each having experienced a change in government based on results at the ballot box. Yet, their collective experience clearly demonstrates that democracy has not been a panacea for their respective challenges. Tunisia’s GDP per capita is now lower than it was in 2011, Lebanon has faced financial collapse, and Iraq suffered significant internal instability
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Democratization, Democracy, and Bureaucracy
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, North Africa, and MENA
8555. Public Views of Migration in MENA
- Author:
- Mohamed Abufalgha
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Arab Barometer
- Abstract:
- Across the Middle East and North Africa, sizable proportions of citizens are considering leaving their home countries. Desire to emigrate is high across the region and has largely remained at the pre-COVID19 levels. In most countries surveyed, at least a fifth of the population reports considering emigrating. The percentage is highest in Jordan where nearly half (48 percent) say they want to leave the kingdom, and lowest in Egypt where only 13 percent share this desire. Those who want to emigrate are more likely to be male, young, well-educated segments of the population, respectively. Youth across the region are significantly more likely to say they consider leaving their countries compared to their older counterparts. The gap between those ages 18-29 and those who are 30 years or older ranges from 32 points in Lebanon to six points in Mauritania. Similarly, those with college degrees or higher are more likely to want to emigrate compared to those with only a secondary education or less in all countries surveyed. The gap between the two groups is significant in several countries, especially in Sudan where it reaches the 26-point mark. Furthermore, men are more eager to leave than women in all countries except Lebanon, where both are equally interested in emigrating. People across MENA name a number of reasons for wanting to emigrate. The most commonly cited reason is for economic issues. The majority of potential migrants in all countries surveyed mention economic factors as the primary reason why they want to leave. These levels range from virtually all potential migrants in Egypt (97 percent) and Jordan (93 percent) to more than half in Libya (53 percent). While other reasons, including security factors, political reasons, and educational opportunities, are mentioned by minorities across the region; these reasons seem to correlate with each country’s political atmosphere, rather than being recurring themes across MENA. Potential migrants in MENA do not seem to agree on a destination. In no country is there a majority choosing one country as a preferred destination. Several factors contribute to people’s preferences. These factors include historical trends of migration, language, proximity, and perceived opportunities. While Jordanians, Lebanese, and Mauritanians prefer a move to North America, Egyptians and Sudanese prefer a Gulf country. North Africans tend to choose France or another European country as their preferred destinations.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Migration, and Immigration
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
8556. Public Views of the U.S.-China Competition in MENA
- Author:
- Michael Robbins
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Arab Barometer
- Abstract:
- Over the last decade, the global competition between the U.S. and China has been on the rise. China’s increased global outlook, particularly through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), has led to a significantly greater economic engagement with countries across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). At the same time, the U.S. continues its retrenchment from the region focusing on a broader pivot to Asia. How have these developments affected views toward both countries? Arab Barometer’s wave seven, the largest public opinion survey of its kind across MENA since the time of COVID, provides insight into these questions. Across MENA, China remains more popular than the U.S. Among the nine countries surveyed, only in Morocco is the U.S. more popular overall than China. In the remainder, China tends to be significantly more favored than the U.S. Yet, this story may be gradually changing. When asked about closer economic ties between their country and the two global powers, in the majority of countries surveyed, citizens are significantly less likely to say they want stronger ties with China than they were in 2018-19. In no country is there an increased desire for stronger economic ties with China while in multiple cases there has been a 20-point shift against China. By comparison, in most countries the desire for closer economic ties with the U.S. has increased or remained unchanged over the same period. This outcome suggests that BRI may not be having the intended effects, with citizens now moving away from China overall.
- Topic:
- Infrastructure, Conflict, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Strategic Competition, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
8557. Gender Attitudes and Trends in MENA
- Author:
- Mary Clare Roche
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Arab Barometer
- Abstract:
- Gender equality is far from achieved in MENA. Clear majorities in most countries surveyed hold that women should not play equal roles to men in both public and private spheres. Yet, there are also signs of change. In the past decade and a half of Arab Barometer surveys, public opinion across the Middle East and North Africa has trended towards gender equality. This is not only a result of younger generations with more liberal ideas of social norms becoming older, but an actual shift in perceptions across generations. In particular, agreement with the statements that “men are better at political leadership than women” and “university education is more important for men than women” has dropped sharply across many countries Arab Barometer has surveyed. The survey always examines perceptions of violence against women. There is a widespread perception that violence against women has been increasing in the region. This is in line with the World Bank’s assessment that gender-based violence has increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in MENA.1 However, the gap between men and women’s perceptions of violence is significant, with women being far more likely to say the level of violence has increased. In order to appropriately address the issue of gender-based violence, conversations need to be facilitated across genders. Another challenge for women in MENA relates to employment opportunities. Labor force participation rates for women are the lowest of any region in the world.2 However, results from Arab Barometer make it clear that most citizens perceive structural barriers to have a greater impact than cultural barriers, meaning governments could more readily develop policies to address these challenges.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Culture, Public Opinion, Equality, and Gender
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, North Africa, and MENA
8558. The effectiveness of social protection in five African countries through normal times and times of crisis
- Author:
- Katrin Gasior, Iva V. Tasseva, and Gemma Wright
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- We study the effectiveness of social protection benefits in reducing income and consumption poverty in five sub-Saharan African countries—Ghana, Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia—in normal times and times of widespread economic crisis. Using tax–benefit microsimulation models with representative household survey data, first we estimate the coverage of benefits and their poverty-reducing effects in each country. Second, we study the ability of benefit automatic stabilizers to reduce losses in incomes and consumption in times of crisis, by simulating hypothetical reductions to earnings and employment. Although the coverage of benefits is fairly high in Ghana and Zambia, the poverty-reducing impact of benefits in all five countries is low in normal times. The effectiveness of benefits to stabilize income and consumption in times of crisis is also limited because many benefits are linked to proxies of income, not income itself, or have tight eligibility criteria. Social assistance programmes are typically unresponsive to losses in household earnings and employment and provide limited support for unemployed people.
- Topic:
- Poverty, Crisis Management, Economic Crisis, and Income
- Political Geography:
- Uganda, Africa, Mozambique, Tanzania, Zambia, and Ghana
8559. The state and the ‘legalization’ of illicit financial flows: Trading gold in Bolivia
- Author:
- Fritz Brugger, Joschka Proksik, and Felitas Fischer
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Most research on illicit financial flows (IFFs) has focused on illicit outflows from developing countries and the role of non-state actors in generating IFFs. Less attention has been paid to processes and interfaces through which IFFs enter formal value chains—in effect being ‘legalized’ before leaving the country—or the crucial role of state institutions as gatekeepers. We develop a novel explanatory approach to account for the enabling role of state institutions in the ‘legalization’ of IFFs. Building on political settlement theory, we explain the performance of institutions in the regulation of IFFs as a function of political settlements. Taking the case of the Bolivian gold-trading sector, we examine how the process of ‘legalizing’ illicit value flows works in practice and analyse the motives and underlying conditions that lead state institutions to permit the formal export of gold shipments that have been illicitly sourced or transferred. Evidence from Bolivia indicates that the ‘legalization’ of illicit flows cannot be sufficiently explained by reference to corruption, illicit rent-seeking, or a general lack of administrative capacity. Rather, the process accommodates the interests of the cooperatives dominating the gold-mining sector, which are critical to maintaining the political settlement on which the incumbent government’s power is based. By maintaining a status quo of non-enforcement, legal ambiguity, and pervasive informality, gold-mining cooperatives are permitted to reap higher benefits from resource extraction at the expense of domestic revenue mobilization.
- Topic:
- Institutions, Mining, Trade, Value Chains, Illicit Financial Flows, and Gold
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
8560. Savings transition in Asia: Unity in diversity
- Author:
- Prema-chandra Athukorala and Wanissa Suanin
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the national savings behaviour in the process of economic growth through a comparative analysis of countries in developing Asia from a historical perspective. Developing Asia provides an ideal laboratory for the study with considerable differences in the savings behaviour among countries and over time within individual countries, notwithstanding the ‘model saver’ image based on the average savings rate. The empirical analysis distinguishes between private and government savings rates, with specific emphasis on the former. The results of the empirical analysis are consistent with the view of ‘virtuous circle’ between growth and savings, with growth initiating the savings transition. No evidence to suggest that a prior phase of promoting savings through specific policy initiatives is needed to initiate the process of growth and structural transformation. The private savings rate is associated positively with per capita gross domestic product, export orientation, and foreign resource inflows and negatively with the young dependency ratio of the population and domestic credit availability.
- Topic:
- Economic Growth, Exports, Savings, and Structural Transformation
- Political Geography:
- Asia
8561. The impact of COVID-19 on urban informal workers in Maputo
- Author:
- Nilifer Anaç, Eva-Maria Egger, Sam Jones, Ricardo Santos, and Alex Warren-Rodriguez
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Informal self-employed traders in developing countries are vulnerable to shocks as they often lack access to social insurance or formal finance. This study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on these urban traders in the capital of Mozambique, Maputo. Drawing on longitudinal phone survey data over six months, we find they experienced significant negative shocks to earnings, leading to a reduction in savings as well as worsening food security and assets. Individuals simultaneously affected by a municipal policy to remove informal traders from a central market were hit particularly hard as they lost their clients and market stalls. We simulate that a cash transfer equivalent to the government’s proposed COVID-19 response would have significantly buffered these shocks. The findings point to the need for a more shock-responsive social protection system, easy access to liquidity and provision of market infrastructure for informal traders.
- Topic:
- Urban, Trade, COVID-19, and Informal Economy
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Mozambique
8562. Trust as state capacity: The political economy of compliance
- Author:
- Timothy Besley and Sacha Dray
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper explores the link between trust in government, policy-making, and compliance. It focuses on a specific channel whereby citizens who are convinced that a policy is worthwhile are more motivated to comply with it. This in turn reduces the government’s cost of implementing a policy and may also increase the set of feasible policies. Thus, state capacity is greater when citizens trust their government. The paper discusses alternative approaches to modelling the origins of trust, especially the link to the design of political institutions. We then provide empirical evidence consistent with the model’s findings that compliance is increasing in trust using the Integrated Values Survey and voluntary compliance during COVID-19 in the UK. We also show that countries with high levels of citizen trust in government were more likely to implement policies requiring voluntary compliance during the COVID-19 pandemic. The paper suggests that trust in government can play a role in building and expanding state capacities.
- Topic:
- Government, Political Economy, Capacity, Compliance, and Trust
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
8563. The determinants of domestic saving in Kenya
- Author:
- Rodgers Musamali, Cecilia Mutia, and Rose Ngugi
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The savings–growth nexus is widely acknowledged, both in policy and in the literature. But Kenya’s numerous policy initiatives to encourage savings mobilization are yet to yield the expected outcomes. This paper identifies the key drivers of domestic saving in Kenya, exploiting fintech as an alternative channel for savings mobilization, and drawing lessons from the Kenyan experience so far. Using data from various sources, and employing an autoregressive distributive lag estimation model, we find that in the long run, private saving is positively and significantly influenced by the per capita income growth rate, inflation, and age dependency ratio, and negatively influenced by the public saving rate and terms of trade. National saving is positively and significantly influenced by the per capita income growth rate, inflation, and private sector credit growth rates in the long run. Wealth and deposit rates negatively influence national saving. Based on these findings, we recommend the following interventions to grow savings in Kenya: creating decent employment opportunities to enhance income growth; providing sustained financial development with a focus on savings mobilization; creating an enabling environment for the private sector; taking advantage of Kenya’s young population; exploiting mobile money platforms to boost savings. Moreover, households show targeted saving behaviour where they accumulate financial savings and then transform them into savings in kind. Therefore, accounting for savings should go beyond the traditional focus on bank deposits and incorporate savings held in other forms. Households also use non-formal platforms for saving, and we suggest that existing barriers to formal saving platforms be removed to direct more saving into formal channels.
- Topic:
- Economic Growth, Saving, Income, and Fintech
- Political Geography:
- Kenya and Africa
8564. Furthering LGBTIQ+ Inclusion and Rights through Feminist Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Elise Stephenson, Jack Hayes, and Matcha Phorn-In
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Women's Development Agency (IWDA)
- Abstract:
- The problem with international development is that some human rights defenders are sexist, some feminists are transphobic and homophobic, and some LGBTIQ+ advocates racist
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Feminism, LGBT+, and Inclusion
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
8565. The intersection of Human Rights and Feminist Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Leanna Smith
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Women's Development Agency (IWDA)
- Abstract:
- As the failure of long-standing institutions and structures leaves nations and multilateral systems running out of options, a new foreign policy model – one that focuses on local and indigenous knowledge; engages civil society; has a commitment to peace, to empathy over sovereignty; and is serious about justice, and inclusion – may be starting to look viable, even for those reluctant to give up their entrenched systemic and institutional power and the associated privileges.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Feminism, and Intersectionality
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
8566. Tax provisioning by extractive industry multinational subsidiaries
- Author:
- Khanindra Ch. Das
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Extractive industries are spread across mining of metal and minerals, oil and gas, among others. Multinationals in these sectors are confronted with different challenges ranging from corruption, political risk, economic uncertainty, sunk costs, and the long-gestation periods to execute projects. As a result, tax payment behaviour of subsidiaries in the extractive sector could be dependent not only on these factors, but also on the life cycle of the subsidiary, profitability, and holding structure. Furthermore, emerging economy multinationals in the extractive industries could be state-owned and may invest in foreign subsidiaries for strategic reasons. We examine tax provision in host countries by India’s multinational subsidiaries in the extractive industry. Panel data analysis is carried out for the period 2010–20. It is found that tax provision remains lower in the initial years of subsidiary life and increases with the sustenance of subsidiary in the host country for a longer period. In addition, subsidiaries of public sector enterprises are found to have higher tax provisions than their private counterparts. When it comes to the determinants, economic policy uncertainty, corruption, and political stability are found to significantly affect tax provision.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Political stability, Multinational Corporations, Tax Systems, Economic Policy, Public Sector, Extractive Industries, and Uncertainty
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India
8567. Marriage market responses in the wake of a natural disaster in India
- Author:
- Shreyasee Das and Shatanjaya Dasgupta
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the impact of the 2001 Gujarat earthquake on age at marriage and other assortative matching outcomes. Using the 2004–05 wave of the India Human Development Survey and employing a difference-in-differences strategy, we document that the earthquake reduced the age at marriage for both men and women and decreased the likelihood of women marrying into wealthier households. Additionally, we find no changes in matching by educational status or in the likelihood of intra-caste and out-of-village marriages. The results are driven by districts that were severely affected by the earthquake in terms of deaths and destruction. Our conjecture is that the negative economic shock pushed parents to marry off their daughters early to save on dowry expenditures. We confirm this underlying mechanism by using a proxy for dowry payments. Our results highlight how the institution of marriage can induce long-lasting demographic changes after a natural disaster.
- Topic:
- Natural Disasters, Marriage, Earthquake, and Dowry
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India
8568. Agricultural risks, the COVID-19 pandemic, and farm household welfare and diversification strategies in Africa
- Author:
- Abdul Malik Iddrisu, Alhassan Abdul-Wakeel Karakara, and Evans S. Osabuohien
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Agricultural activities in many African countries are bedevilled by a range of risk factors. Using micro-level household datasets from a range of countries in Africa, we examine the drivers of agricultural risks, while exploring the role of context as well as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on household welfare, with a focus on farm households relative to their non-farm counterparts. We demonstrate that the probability of experiencing risks related to agriculture is significantly influenced by a range of individual- and farm-level/contextual factors, with these effects showing considerable variations across contexts and countries in Africa. We also find that farm households witnessed important reductions in their incomes during the COVID-19 period in Uganda. The study contributes to the design of evidence-based approaches to reducing farmers’ vulnerabilities to agricultural risks and pandemic-related shocks.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Welfare, COVID-19, and Farming
- Political Geography:
- Africa
8569. The effect of wage subsidies on job retention: Evidence from South Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic
- Author:
- Timothy Köhler, Robert Hill, and Haroon Bhorat
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Wage subsidies have served as a primary labour market policy used around the world to mitigate job losses in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. In South Africa, where unemployment is among the highest globally, the Temporary Employer–Employee Relief Scheme supported millions of workers in a far-reaching and progressive manner. We make use of unique labour force panel data to estimate the causal effect of the policy on short-term job retention among formal private sector workers, who represent the majority of workers in the country, by exploiting a temporary institutional eligibility detail and estimating a difference-in-differences model. We find that the policy increased the probability of remaining employed by 16 percentage points in the short-term. This finding holds when subjected to several robustness tests. We further estimate heterogeneous and progressive effects across the wage distribution with larger effects observed for lower-wage workers, against a backdrop of regressively distributed job loss in the country. Our analysis provides evidence on the role of wage subsidies in the mitigation of job loss during crises in developing countries.
- Topic:
- Employment, Wage Subsidies, COVID-19, Labor Market, and Job Loss
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Africa
8570. Unravelling Africa’s raw material footprints and their drivers
- Author:
- Albert Kwame Osei-Owusu, Michael Danquah, and Edgar Towa
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper applies an environmentally extended input–output analysis, leveraging the Eora database, to estimate the global raw material footprints of 51 African nations from 1995 to 2015. It employs least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and panel regression models to quantify the effects of diverse variables on Africa’s raw material footprints. The findings show that the raw material footprints of Africa’s production and consumption soared by 41 per cent and 38 per cent, respectively, from 1995 to 2015, mainly driven by biomass and construction materials. They show that Africa outsources 25 per cent of its raw material footprints from consumption, while over 60 per cent of its footprints from production arise from its exports. Our findings beckon African governments to reduce the excessive focus on exploitation and concentrate on combatting corruption and extreme rent-seeking while decoupling Africa’s raw material footprints from rising public debt, carbon emissions, income levels, and population.
- Topic:
- Economics, Carbon Emissions, Public Debt, Income, Raw Materials, and Input-Output Analysis
- Political Geography:
- Africa
8571. So close and yet so far: the ability of mandatory disclosure rules to crack down on offshore tax evasion
- Author:
- Elisa Casi, Mohammed Mardan, and Rohit Reddy Muddasani
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- We study the short-term effect of the introduction of the mandatory disclosure programme for aggressive tax arrangements by focusing on the one introduced in May 2018 under Council Directive 2018/288/EU (or DAC6). Employing bilateral data on cross-border deposits, we study the effect of this new disclosure requirement on cross-border tax evasion. Our results show a reduction of cross-border deposits in EU countries with strong enforcement, captured by large monetary penalties for misreporting. At the same time, we document a relocation of income and wealth to countries with limited intermediary reporting obligations. Finally, we detect a shortterm increase of US$14 billion in cross-border deposits held in countries offering citizenship/residence by investment programmes, suggesting the use of these schemes as regulatory arbitrage to circumvent the disclosure mandated under DAC6. We provide timely and relevant evidence contributing to the debate on international administrative cooperation to reduce cross-border tax evasion.
- Topic:
- European Union, Finance, Banking, Tax Evasion, and Administrative Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Global Focus
8572. A model to explain the impact of government revenue on the quality of governance and the SDGs
- Author:
- Stephen G. Hall and Bernadette O'Hare
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper empirically investigates the link between the level of government revenue per capita and six indicators of quality of governance in an unbalanced panel data set consisting of all countries in the world (217) using data from 1980 to 2020. It uses single-equation GMM techniques and a VAR and VECM approach to investigate this link. The results show a strong effect over time whereby an increase in government revenue leads to a steady improvement in governance. These findings suggest an important virtuous circle between government revenue and governance, indicating that additional government revenue can significantly impact the Sustainable Development Goals more than our previous work has suggested.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Governance, and Sustainable Development Goals
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
8573. Does aid fragmentation affect tax revenue dynamics in developing countries? Observations with new tax data
- Author:
- Ali Compaoré and Abrams M. E. Tagem
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- There exists a burgeoning empirical literature on the impact of aid fragmentation on development outcomes in aid-receiving countries, with it being widely recognized that aid fragmentation is deleterious. This paper adds to the existing literature by estimating the impact of aid fragmentation on tax revenue mobilization in developing countries. Drawing on the popular system generalized method of moments technique to counter endogeneity issues, this study focuses on a sample of 90 developing countries covering the period from 2000 to 2020. We show that aid fragmentation, measured by the Herfindahl index, has a significant negative impact on recipient countries’ tax revenue ratios, an impact that is not mitigated by the level of institutional quality. The paper also explores the impact of aid fragmentation on tax structure and finds convincing evidence that direct taxes, particularly corporate income taxes, are the most affected. Value-added tax is the only indirect tax affected by aid fragmentation.
- Topic:
- Development, Tax Systems, Institutions, and Revenue
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
8574. Employer power and employment in developing countries
- Author:
- Nancy H. Chau, Ravi Kanbur, and Vidhya Soundararajan
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The issue of employer power is underemphasized in the development literature. The default model is usually one of competitive labour markets. This assumption matters for analysis and policy prescription. There is growing evidence that the competitive labour markets assumption is not valid for employment in developing countries. Our objective in this paper is to review this evidence, to present theoretical and policy perspectives that follow from it, and to highlight areas for further research.
- Topic:
- Development, Employment, and Labor Market
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
8575. Fintech in sub-Saharan Africa
- Author:
- Njuguna Ndung'u
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper traces the development of fintech in sub-Saharan Africa, its evolution over time, and the unfolding benefits attained at each stage of its adoption and market evolution. From the onset, fintechs have revolutionized retail electronic payment systems—a revolution that has evolved into a technological platform to manage micro-savers’ accounts, virtual savings and credit systems, public financial management, and cross-border remittances, and has led to the adoption of new monetary policy frameworks. The uptake of fintech products has led to increased financial inclusion for underserved and unserved populations, improvement of welfare, and the efficient and cost-effective provision of services across all sectors of the economy. The paper also outlines the challenges that persist and need to be addressed to allow the rapid uptake of fintech products and solutions in sub-Saharan Africa. The paper concludes that the fourth Industrial Revolution, driven by fintech, has the potential to propel the continent to higher levels of savings, investments, employment, and inclusive growth, provided an appropriate legal and regulatory framework is put in place and resources are channelled for sufficient infrastructural development.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Inclusion, Savings, and Fintech
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa
8576. Gender preference at birth: A new measure for son preference based on stated preferences and observed measures of parents’ fertility decisions
- Author:
- Mehwish Ali, Ashton de Silva, Sarah Sinclair, and Ankita Mishra
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Investigating preference for sons is a continuing focal area of development economics and demographic research. Son preference presents a challenge in achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals of ‘no poverty’, ‘good health and wellbeing’, and ‘gender equality’ by 2030. It is thus important to investigate son preference to inform policy-makers of the potential challenges in achieving these goals. Inaccurate interpretation of the mechanisms of son preference could misinform policy analysis and result in unintended consequences. Existing measures including sex ratios and gender composition of children do not reflect the true extent of son preference in high fertility countries such as Pakistan, where the success of policy action is limited and significant barriers to sex-selective technologies exist. Given the likely impact of son preference on fertility behaviour in Pakistan, accurate measurement of the forms this gender bias can take is necessary to appropriately gauge the influence of son preference on the fertility outcomes. The limited capacity of existing measures to accurately depict son preference in countries with high fertility combined with limited demarcation between pre- and post-birth son preference warrants development of a new measure for son preference to evaluate its effects. In this paper, a new measure of son preference called ‘gender preferences at birth’ (GPB) is presented. GPB combines stated fertility preferences and observed fertility outcomes to acknowledge that households in countries with high fertility and low contraception usage have less control over their fertility decisions.
- Topic:
- Economics, Sustainable Development Goals, Welfare, Family Planning, Fertility, and Gender
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, South Asia, and Global Focus
8577. Determinants of corporate cash holdings in South Africa
- Author:
- Ewa Karwowski, Hanna Szymborska, Keagile Lesame, and Tlhologelo Thoka
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Globally, corporate cash holdings have risen since the 1980s. In South Africa, some commentators have accused corporations of engaging in an ‘investment strike’, while others see corporate liquidity as a precaution against systemic uncertainty. We use the unique South African Revenue Service/National Treasury firm-level dataset to scrutinize corporate liquidity, using panel analysis. Relative to GDP, corporate cash and liquidity holdings have not increased between 2010 and 2017. However, corporate cash is high in international comparison and has grown at the firm level. We do not find evidence for the hypothesis that companies are engaging in an investment strike. Cash and liquidity are shaped by idiosyncratic and sectoral risk factors. In the short run, heightened uncertainty might reduce corporate cash and liquidity as firms struggle to adjust to an unexpected economic situation. In the medium run, we find a strong association between political uncertainty and corporate cash and liquidity holdings.
- Topic:
- Economics, Corporations, Liquidity, and Cash
- Political Geography:
- Africa, South Africa, and Global Focus
8578. Standardization and ethnocracy in Sri Lanka
- Author:
- Neil DeVotta
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Standardization was the scheme that replaced meritocracy in Sri Lanka education, with positive discrimination to increase the majority Sinhalese community’s university enrolment. It did so by minimizing better-qualified minority Tamils’ university entry, even as the quest for Tamil separatism was gaining ground. The government claimed the scheme was justified to create a more balanced representation in science-based university fields, but it was among the policies that contributed to the island becoming an ethnocracy. While standardization was later discarded, its legacy continues thanks to the district quota system it fostered and the inequalities it helped to cement between ethnic groups. Ultimately, standardization did not merely complicate existing inequalities; it also contributed to anomie and substandard professionalism within the educational and governmental sectors. A path dependence explanation helps us to better understand why the policy was instituted, and why district quotas continue to operate.
- Topic:
- Education, Inequality, Ethnicity, Separatism, Standardization, Path Dependency, and Ethnocracy
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and Sri Lanka
8579. Reigniting labour productivity growth in developing countries: Do structural reforms matter?
- Author:
- Kwamivi Gomado
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- While the negative effects of the 2008 global financial crisis on labour productivity are still fresh in people’s minds, the COVID-19 pandemic raises concerns that productivity will continue to decline. To boost labour productivity and regain economic performance, there is an empirical consensus on the role of structural reforms that allows an efficient reallocation of resources such as labour by reducing rigidities in markets. This study analyses the role of certain structural reforms in improving labour productivity in 35 developing countries over the period of 1990–2014. From the local projection method, our results show that structural reforms have a positive impact on productivity growth in the short and medium terms. The results also illustrate that reforms induce an efficient reallocation of resources within but not between sectors. Taking the business cycle into account in estimates shows that structural reforms stimulate labour productivity growth better in periods of low economic growth.
- Topic:
- Labor Issues, Financial Crisis, Reform, Business, Economic Growth, and Productivity
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
8580. Inclusion amid ethnic inequality: Insights from Brazil’s social protection system
- Author:
- Natasha Borges Sugiyama
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Policy frames in Brazil have long run up against conflicting visions and understandings about the causes and consequences of group-based inequality. This paper argues that a class-based lens has dominated the social protection framework. In recent years, political leaders have framed social policy measures along ‘universal’ class lines with the aim of improving poverty and wellbeing. This framing is reflective of Brazil’s national narrative on race relations and the idea that class and employment status have been the most salient barriers to social welfare protections. Brazil’s widely well-regarded anti-poverty conditional cash transfer programme, Bolsa Família (2003–21), is emblematic of the country’s universal and ‘race-blind’ approach to social policy. But given the strong correlation in Brazil between ethnicity and income, social protection policies such as the Bolsa Família have indirectly targeted vulnerable black and brown citizens. The analysis addresses how social policy has contributed advances to wellbeing in general and for Afro-Brazilians. A comparative perspective on social welfare systems offers important lessons on how poverty relief can further human development and enhance agency. Future reformers can learn from Brazil’s pursuit of poverty reduction alongside administrative procedures that identify vulnerable groups, as a strategy to address intersectional inequalities of ethnicity and class.
- Topic:
- Poverty, Race, Inequality, and Welfare
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and South America
8581. The legal basis for affirmative action in India
- Author:
- Kiruba Munusamy
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The affirmative action policy in India came into practice because of the generations of struggle undergone by the untouchable castes and other backward classes, who were historically excluded from education and administration. As society changed, it was inevitable that the vulnerable groups who had so far been forgotten in terms of social justice should be ‘included’. However, this paper finds that, instead of recognizing this need the judiciary continued to apply illogical limitations and age-old precedents that disrupted the implementation of affirmative action. Although the legal basis of affirmative action comes from the Constitution of India itself, which provides for reservation and enables States to make laws to that end, judicial interference has necessitated ongoing legislative changes to keep the needed affirmative action on track. Progress has been made, but it is often a case of ‘two steps forward, one step back’, and many issues, such as the ceiling on reservations and the categories to be included in it, remain to be resolved.
- Topic:
- Inequality, Social Justice, Judiciary, and Affirmative Action
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India
8582. Return migration and entrepreneurship in Cameroon
- Author:
- Sévérin Tamwo, Ghislain Stéphane, Gandjon Fankem, and Dieudonné Taka
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- In this paper, we examine the determinants of the entrepreneurial behaviour of returnees to Cameroon based on original survey data from 2012. Contrary to the existing literature, we focus on the skills received from abroad without omitting the effect of savings. We distinguish between three types of competences related to qualifications. We also differentiate between the probability of starting a business in the primary sector and the probability of starting a business in the tertiary sector. The main results, obtained from a probit model, show that: (i) degrees and qualifications and qualifications acquired abroad do not positively influence the probability of migrants to undertake a new activity once back home; in contrast, accumulated savings, captured by the time spent abroad, have a positive influence; (ii) other qualifications have no influence on the entrepreneurial behaviour of return migrants; and (iii) the entrepreneurial behaviour of return migrants is not oriented towards the primary sector but rather towards the tertiary sector. These results are robust when we account for endogeneity.
- Topic:
- Migration, Entrepreneurship, Economy, and Skills
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Cameroon
8583. Illicit financial flows and country-by-country reporting in extractive industries
- Author:
- Saila Stausholm, Petr Janský, and Marek Šedivý
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Economic data are important in governing the international political economy. Some of the most widely used macro statistics risk being undermined by systematic misalignment in reporting of economic activity due to illicit financial flows, as well as tax-minimizing financial transactions by multinational corporations. Measuring these misalignments may prove a way to correct old statistical standards, if adequate data can be obtained. We evaluate whether new transparency and reporting regimes that require country-by-country reporting by multinational corporations could prove a feasible way to appropriate the amount of tax avoidance and use these figures to correct macro statistics. We evaluate the existing data for two of the standards through previous literature and provide original analysis of a third standard that is applied to the extractive industries. We find that the standards lack coherence and workability, and that particularly the extractive industry standard falls short of enabling thorough research on profit reporting and taxmotivated misalignments by multinational corporations.
- Topic:
- Economics, Tax Evasion, Extractive Industries, and Illicit Financial Flows
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
8584. Narrative Warfare: How the Kremlin and Russian news outlets justified a war of aggression against Ukraine
- Author:
- Nika Aleksejeva and Andy Carvin
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- In the weeks and months leading up to Russia invading Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the Kremlin and pro-Kremlin media employed false and misleading narratives to justify military action against Ukraine, mask the Kremlin’s operational planning, and deny any responsibility for the coming war. Collectively, these narratives served as Vladimir Putin’s casus belli to engage in a war of aggression against Ukraine. To research this report, the Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab) identified recurring pro-Kremlin narratives over two timeframes: the 2014–2021 interwar period and the seventy days leading up to the 2022 invasion. For the interwar period, we reviewed more than 350 fact-checks of pro-Kremlin disinformation. We then collected more than ten thousand examples of false and misleading narratives published by fourteen pro-Kremlin outlets over the seventy-day pre-invasion period. To understand how these narratives evolved, we catalogued them by themes, sub-narratives, and relationships to pre-invasion escalatory events. This allowed us to produce a timeline of false and misleading Kremlin narratives encompassing the year leading to the invasion, showing how Russia weaponized these narratives as its actions on the ground escalated toward war.
- Topic:
- News Analysis, Conflict, Narrative, Information Warfare, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
8585. International development cooperation as a global governance policy
- Author:
- Philippe Andre Orliange and Thomas Zaratiegui
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
- Institution:
- Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
- Abstract:
- The three major international texts adopted in 2015 -Addis Ababa Action Agenda on financing for development, 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and Paris Climate Agreement- place national public policies and actors at the heart of international development cooperation (IDC). By bringing IDC closer to national institutions, particularly development banks, and taking it further away from traditional foreign policy, this shift has challenged longheld IDC narratives and structures, both among developed and developing countries. It has also laid the foundations for a degree of structured and universal accountability within the international development cooperation system, setting the stage for a wider shift within global governance.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, International Cooperation, Governance, and Paris Agreement
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
8586. Back to sovereignty? Policy space in investor-State dispute settlement
- Author:
- Magdalena Bas
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
- Institution:
- Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
- Abstract:
- The paper examines how investor-State dispute settlement mechanisms -included in international investment agreements- are able to condition national policy space, even when foreign investors question measures regarding human rights, public health, or environmental protection. It also intends to identify and explain the new trends in international investment agreements that illustrate different ways out the investor-State dispute settlement labyrinth. In order to achieve the objectives, a qualitative documentary research was conducted, based on secondary sources. The new trends in international investment agreements cartography show the emergence of a new concept of sovereignty rooted in the defense of policy space -“regulatory sovereignty”.
- Topic:
- Sovereignty, Governance, Law, and Investment
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
8587. International Law and Order Enforcement: Police Assistance Programs and Politics in US-Brazil Relations
- Author:
- Priscila Villela
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
- Institution:
- Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
- Abstract:
- Police Assistance programs have been a permanent part of US foreign policy towards Latin America, with Brazil being one of the most important beneficiaries. Throughout their history, they have been oriented according to changing agendas, from anticommunism to the war on drugs. Based on documentary sources and specialized literature, we analyze the politics of US policing in Brazil, reconstituting agendas and interests that motivated police assistance programs through the lens of critical police studies in IR. In doing so, we demonstrate that police cooperation is historically a crucial part of US-Brazil bilateral relations, despite the unfrequent prominence in the literature.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, International Law, Bilateral Relations, and Police
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, South America, North America, and United States of America
8588. “Brazilian Foreign Policy, Multilateral Institutions and Power Relations: an Interview with Ambassador Rubens Ricupero”
- Author:
- Alexandra de Mello e Silva, Flavia de Campos Mello, Leticia Pinheiro, and Monica Herz
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
- Institution:
- Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
- Abstract:
- This interview stems from the interest of four Brazilian scholars in contributing to the study of foreign policy through dialogue with practitioners. As the study about foreign policy becomes more reflexive and critical, we turned to a Brazilian diplomat, Rubens Ricupero, who based on his vast and often difficult experience, has written about his interactions with the international world and strived to establish a dialogue with the academic world. Between May and July 2021, Ambassador Ricupero shared with us his views on the difficulties and possibilities of dialogue regarding multilateral agreements and institutions, such as the GATT and the UNCTAD
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Strategic Interests, and Power
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and South America
8589. “One Single Agriculture”: Dismantling Policies and Silencing Peasant Family Farmers in Brazilian Foreign Policy (2016-2022)
- Author:
- Thiago Lima, Laura Trajber Waisbich, and Lizandra Serafim
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
- Institution:
- Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
- Abstract:
- Brazil experienced the opening-up and democratization of its foreign policymaking in the last decades, but since 2016 a wave of bureaucratic reforms sought to reverse that process. This paper contributes to understanding this phenomenon by looking at the agri-food dimension of Brazilian foreign policy. Through the analysis of official documental and discursive data, we discuss successive symbolic-discursive, as well as policy-institutional governmental efforts to close-off foreign policymaking to peasant family farmers and their interests. The study reveals changing patterns in state-society interfaces, and contributes to bridging the fields of Foreign Policy Analysis, Policy Dismantling and Social Participation.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Agriculture, Farming, and Social Order
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and South America
8590. When only China wants to play: Institutional turmoil and Chinese investment in Brazil
- Author:
- Niels Sondergaard, Ana Flavia Barros-Platiau, and Hyeyoon Park
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
- Institution:
- Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
- Abstract:
- The political and institutional crisis in Brazil from 2015, fueled largely by corruption probes and lawfare, had severe repercussions within the Brazilian construction and energy sectors. While many international investors withdrew from Brazil in this period, Chinese investment surged. This article accounts for the particular characteristics of Chinese investments, such as sectorial complementarities, risk assessment, market size attraction, and state-drivenness, which may explain this development.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Hegemony, Investment, and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, Brazil, and South America
8591. Marriage of convenience, love at first sight? A brief manual for teaching international relations in Brazil and beyond
- Author:
- Andrea Quirino Steiner, Elia Elisa Cia Alves, and Cristin a Carvalho Pacheco
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
- Institution:
- Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
- Abstract:
- Professors may start teaching either out of love or out of convenience, with limited resources. This article provides a brief manual for planning, designing and implementing PS&IR courses. We discuss syllabi, from the basics to the inclusion of transversal topics, then present eight active learning strategies plus traditional lectures, and debate assessments. Although we consider the context of new teachers within Brazilian universities, we believe this is useful for professors from all countries and levels of experience. Thereby, we provide practical advice for teachers to live happily ever after in their pedagogical love story (even if it did not start that way).
- Topic:
- International Relations, Family, Marriage, and Social Order
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and South America
8592. BRICS and Global Health Diplomacy in the Covid-19 Pandemic: Situating BRICS’ diplomacy within the prevailing global health governance context
- Author:
- Candice Moore
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
- Institution:
- Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
- Abstract:
- BRICS have been cast as a bloc with the potential to make significant changes in Global Health. The management of the Covid-19 pandemic has shown divisions in the bloc and the limits of its ability to formulate policies or even act upon previously agreed positions. This paper employs an examination of BRICS Health Ministerial declarations and an analysis of power in International Relations to reflect on BRICS’ Global Health diplomacy during the Covid-19 pandemic, covering the key questions of vaccine research and development, vaccine nationalism, and travel bans. It finds that multiple dimensions of power matter in Global Health leadership.
- Topic:
- Health, International Cooperation, Governance, Pandemic, COVID-19, and BRICS
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Russia, China, Europe, India, Asia, South Africa, Brazil, and South America
8593. Borders and transit countries: the re-territorialization of Middle East pipelines
- Author:
- Nino Luis Maduerira
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
- Institution:
- Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
- Abstract:
- Following the discovery of vast oil reserves in the Persian Gulf region, the Middle East became the main hub for the expansion and development of western pipeline technology. Contrary to the borderless world described in some accounts of globalization, what is observed after 1956 is the establishment of hard political borders, directly under the oversight of national governments, for pipeline deployment with minimal boundary crossings. In the Middle East, this minimal permeability of frontiers entailed fewer risks compared with the uncertainties arising from having to cross several countries: the sovereign state thus seemed the best container for oil transportation. The conclusion puts forward the concept of re-territorialization to explain the multi-level changes that took place, entailing shifts in geography, in business structures and in international relations.
- Topic:
- Oil, Science and Technology, Natural Resources, Borders, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
8594. South America at the core of Brazilian foreign policy during Bolsonaro’s administration (2019-2022)
- Author:
- Miriam Gomes Saraiva
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
- Institution:
- Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
- Abstract:
- The arrival of Jair Bolsonaro to the Brazilian presidency brought many changes to foreign policy. Based on new ideas in a new foreign policymaking format, several patterns of international behavior were questioned and replaced by new guidelines and actions that created friction with international partners. Brazil’s behavior towards South America was one of the areas most impacted by this shift. This paper reflects upon Bolsonaro’s foreign policy for the region, influenced by these changes and marked by disinterest on policymakers’ part, highlighting how ideational factors underpinned behaviors, actors, and actions.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Governance, Strategic Interests, and Stabilization
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and South America
8595. The Scowcroft Center’s project on twenty-first-century diplomacy
- Author:
- Jeffrey Cimmino and Amanda J. Rothschild
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- How should US diplomacy adapt for the twenty-first century? The practice of diplomacy has changed drastically over the past several decades, with the return of great power rivalry, the emergence of the new technologies of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR), and the rise of other important developments. Yet, while scholars and strategists have devoted enormous attention to how these new developments affect other domains, such as the future of warfare, they have devoted scant attention to the changing nature of diplomacy. If we believe, however, that diplomacy is a—if not the—most important tool of American statecraft, then twenty-first-century diplomacy deserves the same level of sustained attention. This paper will seek to characterize the changing nature of diplomacy with the objective of helping US and allied diplomats more effectively practice strategy and statecraft. This issue brief considers two key questions. How is the context of twenty-first-century diplomacy different from that of the past? How can US diplomacy begin to adapt for the twenty-first century? In answering the first question, this issue brief will focus on the most salient change in the international balance of power—the rise of China—in addition to the current technological revolution. After outlining how these changes have affected the context in which the United States conducts diplomacy, this issue brief will suggest several proposals to adapt US diplomacy to the twenty-first century. These suggestions will address both how changes in the global context—especially technology—have affected the conduct of US diplomacy and how US diplomacy can best respond to China’s rise and the 4IR.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Organization, Politics, Science and Technology, and Innovation
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and United States of America
8596. Securing the energy transition against cyber threats
- Author:
- Atlantic Council Task Force on Cybersecurity and the Energy Transition
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- As the US energy sector’s reliance on digitalization grows, its vulnerability to cyberattacks also increases. To better understand current and future threats, the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center convened the Atlantic Council Task Force on Cybersecurity and the Energy Transition to develop a cybersecurity framework designed to protect US energy infrastructure—and by extension, national security—against cyberattacks. Former Secretary of the US Department of Homeland Security Michael Chertoff and former General Wesley Clark served as co-chairmen of the task force, which produced this report, “Securing the Energy Transition against Cyber Threats.” The task force found that existing efforts to strengthen cybersecurity are insufficient to meet the demands the energy transition will bring. The fragmented, sometimes rivalrous set of institutions regulating and coordinating current cyber defenses leaves many gaps, ambiguities, and weak links. This report recommends a suite of key actions that government can take to shore up the US energy sector against future cyber threats.
- Topic:
- Environment, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Innovation, Energy, and Green Transition
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
8597. Hackers, Hoodies, and Helmets: Technology and the changing face of Russian private military contractors
- Author:
- Emma Schroeder, Gavin Wilde, Justin Sherman, and Trey Herr
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The first time Russia invaded Ukraine in the twenty-first century, the Wagner Group was born. The now widely profiled private military company (PMC) played an important role in exercising Russian national power over the Crimea and portions of the Donbas—while giving Moscow a semblance of plausible deniability. In the near decade since, the Russian PMC sector has grown considerably, and is active in more than a dozen countries around the world. PMCs are paramilitary organizations established and run as private companies—though they often operate in contract with one or more states. They are profit-motivated, expeditionary groups that make a business of the conduct of war.1 PMCs are in no way a uniquely Russian phenomenon, yet the expanding footprint of Russian PMCs and their links to state interests call for a particularly Russian-focused analysis of the industry. The growth of these firms and their direct links to the Kremlin’s oligarch network as well as Moscow’s foreign media, industrial, and cyber activities present a challenge to the United States and its allies as they seek to counter Russian malicious activities abroad. As signals intelligence and offensive cyber capabilities, drones and counter-drone systems, and encrypted communications become more accessible, these technologies will prove ever more decisive to both battlefield outcomes and statecraft. More exhaustive research on these issues is necessary. The ongoing conflict resulting from Russia’s second invasion of Ukraine in this young century seems likely to shape the conduct of Russian foreign policy and security behavior for years to come—and these firms will play a part. The activities of these PMCs include high-intensity combat operations, as evidenced in Syria in 2018 and Ukraine in 2022, and a mix of population control, escort and close protection, and local direct-action activities, as seen in Libya, Mali, and elsewhere.2 Given the sourcing and dependence of Russian PMCs on Russian military service personnel and no small influence of Russian doctrine, the questions to reasonably ask include: How do changes in the Russian conduct of war and adoption of new technologies influence these PMCs? Moreover, how might these technological changes influence the role these PMCs play in Russian strategic goals and activity abroad?
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Innovation, Wagner Group, Russia-Ukraine War, and Private Military Companies (PMCs)
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eurasia, Ukraine, Middle East, and Africa
8598. Behind the rise of ransomware
- Author:
- John Sakellariadis
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- This issue brief investigates the drivers of the ransomware surge that menaced the United States in the summer of 2021, explains why these attacks remain a persistent threat today, and offers recommendations for mitigating the problem in the future. The 2021 surge in ransomware activity stems from a change in how criminals launch ransomware attacks. Between 2016 and 2019, cybercriminals shifted away from automated ransomware campaigns that emphasized scale to targeted extortion operations against organizations and established businesses. This adaptation made ransomware more disruptive and more profitable, eventually attracting the attention of well-organized cybercrime gangs. The intensification of the ransomware epidemic from that point until the attack on Colonial Pipeline resulted from the growing adoption of this new extortion model among criminals. Though the US government has devoted more attention to ransomware over the ensuing months, ransomware remains a significant and long-term threat to the US economy. Three factors drive the persistence of the problem: the presence of a vast pool of security-poor organizations, the availability of a poorly regulated monetization pipeline in the form of cryptocurrency, and criminals’ ability to evade law enforcement by exploiting jurisdictional boundaries. Mitigating just one of these conditions, let alone all three, will demand years of sustained effort. Because the US government cannot eliminate ransomware overnight, it must begin planning how to manage the problem over the long term. To do so, it should start by investing in new efforts to improve the defenses of small- to medium-sized entities. The ease of compromising these organizations has been key to fueling the appetite for ransomware attacks. Yet, many of these organizations lack the personnel, incentives, and contracting power to secure their own networks. Moreover, the US government should require all US-based organizations to report ransomware payments to the government and publish quarterly reports with anonymized versions of the data. Comprehensive payment transparency offers the best way to measure success against ransomware over the long term. It will ensure that success against targeted ransomware is judged in terms of the overall volume of ransomware payments, not just the absence of attacks on high-risk or high-profile entities.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, and Ransomware
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
8599. Space Traffic Management: Time for Action
- Author:
- Mir Sadat and Julia Siegel
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Outer space has long been characterized as “contested, congested, and competitive.” More than four thousand eight hundred active satellites currently orbit Earth, representing over forty nations, and nearly twenty-five thousand satellites are projected to join by 2030. Moreover, spacefaring entities are testing the limits of space exploration: Visionary space companies are aiming to launch space tourism programs and send humans to space within the decade, and governments and militaries are increasing activity in cislunar space—the sphere formed by the Earth-Moon radius—to leverage advantageous orbital regions. As humanity expands its frontiers deeper into the galaxy, the threats to US and allied space capabilities will continue to increase. Yet, despite the proliferation of space activity, the ability of international and national bodies to track and regulate space objects—often referred to as space traffic management (STM)—reflects a past era wherein few actors conducted limited operations in space. The current state of STM can be more aptly described as space situational awareness (SSA), or the mere knowledge of objects in orbit. Global actors (including national governments, corporations, and international organizations) track space objects and notify satellite operators when the probability of collision is notable. While collision avoidance maneuvers are standard when there is a one in ten thousand chance of collision, it is ultimately up to the operators to determine whether and when they will move. The limits of this decentralized approach to SSA were illustrated in September 2019 when a European Space Agency satellite veered off path to avoid a Starlink satellite whose operator missed an email notification signaling a high probability of collision.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, National Security, and Space
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Eurasia, Asia, and United States of America
8600. Beyond munitions: A gender analysis for Ukrainian security assistance
- Author:
- Cori Fleser
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- From the hospitals of Mariupol to the streets of Bucha, the Russian war in Ukraine has extracted an unacceptably high cost, while banding NATO allies and partners together in an unprecedented tide of support. In bilateral and multilateral security assistance packages, the transatlantic community has sent Ukraine javelins, High-Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARs), and all manner of weapons to defend against the Russian invasion. Still, Russia’s war continues against the nation of Ukraine and its people. So how should future military assistance account for the different impacts of the war on Ukrainian civilians? What strategies remain for NATO allies and partners to enhance their support beyond weapons and materiel? The answers lie in using gender analyses to zero in on the unique human security challenges facing Ukraine. When we overlook the role of gender in conflict, we miss the opportunity to both lead with our values and make our military support more effective. Applying a gender analysis to our security assistance is a solution that allies and partners have already agreed to implement in forums from the United Nations to NATO. In fact, it’s a tool that many allies have already developed within their own militaries. Now is the time to employ it in support of Ukraine. This starts with acknowledging the Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) Agenda. The WPS Agenda, passed under United Nations Security Council Resolution 1325 in 2000, recognizes the disproportionate impact of conflict on women and girls, and their critical role in reconstructing societies. Militaries can apply gender analyses to better understand and tailor assistance to the unique security environments in which they operate. To help policymakers think through how a gender analysis can shape what security assistance should look like—and, in many cases, how allied militaries can implement solutions at scale, and consistent with political decisions that have already been made—we are proud to offer this issue brief. Our intention is to demonstrate to global decision makers that incorporating gender can and should be integrated in real-time conflicts to achieve real results. Our support to Ukraine must not waver, but more can be done to mitigate the severe impact of Russia’s war on the Ukrainian people. Allies and partners already have the political mandate to integrate the WPS Agenda into their operations. They already have the tools, training, and technical expertise to implement it in the field. The next step is making this common practice. This issue brief spells out ten steps for how to do so in Ukraine.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Women, Partnerships, Resilience, Society, Gender, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine