Publication Year: within 3 Years and within 5 Years

8251. Small Modular Reactors in the Philippines’ Journey Toward Nuclear Energy

Author:: Julius Caesar Trajano
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The Philippines is seeking nuclear energy partnerships with various countries and allies as it aims to address the twin challenges of achieving energy security and reducing carbon emissions. How can advanced small modular nuclear reactors help the Philippines in its transition to clean energy?
Topic:: Security, Energy Policy, Nuclear Power, Nuclear Energy, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Asia and Philippines

8252. Countering Disinformation and Misinformation in Humanitarian Relief Work

Author:: S. Nanthini
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Humanitarian organisations are trying to adjust to the rapid transformation of information and communication technology. The rise in disinformation and misinformation poses significant challenges to the sharing of accurate information in times of need. Humanitarian organisations must invest more in efforts to adapt to the realities of the information landscape today.
Topic:: Disaster Relief, Humanitarian Aid, Science and Technology, Humanitarian Crisis, and Disinformation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8253. “Don’t Abandon Us”: Preventing Mass Atrocities in Papua, Indonesia

Author:: Made Supriatma
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:: This report assesses the risk of mass atrocities (large-scale, systematic violence against civilian populations) in Papua, Indonesia, over the next 12–18 months. Since its integration into Indonesia in 1969, Papua has seen ongoing political resistance and armed rebellion in favor of independence, and government repression in response. The region is home to Indigenous Papuans and a growing population of migrants from other parts of Indonesia, layering intercommunal tensions on top of the conflict over the region’s governance. An upward trend in the frequency of violent incidents prompted this analysis of the potential for mass atrocities. This report is based on field research in Indonesia, including in Papua, from March to August 2021, as well as on expert consultations and a literature review. The report’s conceptual framework and research questions draw from the atrocity assessment framework developed by the US government.
Topic:: Security, Armed Forces, Indigenous, Industry, Atrocity Prevention, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:: Indonesia, Southeast Asia, and Papua

8254. Justice Options for Ethiopia: Eight Options to Provide Redress for Ethiopia's Victims

Author:: Sarah McIntosh
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:: The most recent conflict in Ethiopia has claimed thousands of lives and perpetrators have enjoyed almost complete impunity for their crimes. Ɣ Justice and accountability for perpetrators on all sides are desperately needed to demonstrate that perpetrators will not escape punishment, to provide recognition and repair to victims, and to promote social healing and reconciliation. Ɣ Ethiopian civil society representatives have called for the full spectrum of transitional justice mechanisms including criminal accountability, reparations, truth telling, and guarantees of non-recurrence.
Topic:: Civil Society, Transitional Justice, Impunity, Accountability, Atrocities, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, Eritrea, East Africa, and Tigray

8255. Mass Atrocities in Ukraine: Assessing Risks of Significant Escalation

Author:: Daniel Solomon
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:: On October 11, 2022, the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide at the US Holocaust Memorial Museum convened a private roundtable to discuss potential scenarios of mass atrocity escalation in Ukraine. The discussion featured preliminary remarks by three Ukraine experts, followed by a facilitated discussion. The discussion aimed to encourage more systematic thinking about how the current pattern of mass atrocities in Ukraine could escalate, in terms of severity, lethality, and/or systematicity to inform policy makers’ consideration of preventive options. The 2022 United States Strategy to Anticipate, Prevent, and Respond to Atrocities states, “In cases of ongoing atrocities, the [Atrocity Prevention] Task Force supports regional policy processes in developing and monitoring targeted response options and adjusting course as needed.” Assessing potential pathways to escalation is one way to help identify targeted response options that could mitigate atrocity risks. Even in a case like Ukraine, where the core US strategy is to help Ukraine repel Russia’s invasion, additional options may be available to help protect vulnerable populations or head-off future escalation. At the time of the convening, little analysis of this type appeared to exist, despite the substantial attention to documenting atrocity crimes, monitoring day-to-day developments in the war, and anticipating potential future scenarios of the conflict in general. Therefore, the discussion focused on the following prompts: What are the major potential triggers or drivers of potential significant escalation of atrocities in Ukraine over the next year or so? What strategies might policy makers use to anticipate, prevent, or respond to the potential escalation of atrocities? What observable trends or events would indicate increasing likelihood of a significant escalation of atrocities in Ukraine? The discussion took place under the Chatham House rule. This rapporteur’s report summarizes key discussion points and questions without attribution.
Topic:: Atrocities, Armed Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

8256. A Study on the Effects of Multinational Production on Global and Domestic Value Chains Following Trade Restructuring and Corresponding International Economic Policies

Author:: Myoung Shik Choi and Hun Dae Lee
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Emphasizing foreign affiliates amid stagnant global value-chained trade, this study provides important evidence for measurable policies which should be taken dependent on the level of GVCs integration in shaping international trade flows and multinational production activity. The recent decreased share of value-added exports within gross exports represents characteristics of a wider value chained network. It is common not only for firms to increase their economic activities globally but also for oversea affiliates to operate as the linchpin between the international and domestic parts of value chains. Our findings suggest that foreign affiliate activity strengthens domestic value chains, thereby leading to the outcome of further growth in the host country, while domestic affiliate activity abroad strengthens global value chains which spur growth in the broader world economy. Based on empirical discussions centered on participating in GVCs, OECD high-income countries significantly integrated into GVCs will benefit from upgrading their GVCs policies such as capturing value-added in exports and building new technology or innovation. There is also a need to continue enforcing the domestic linkages of MNE affiliates, which contributes to growth and employment as they contract and cooperate with domestic firms. In addition, low-income countries not fully integrated into GVCs in the Asia-Pacific region may need to secure entry into existing GVCs with trade liberalization, while middle-income countries which have secured entry into GVCs may focus on enhancing competitiveness by increasing productivity and developing regional economic integration through forums like APEC.
Topic:: Multinational Corporations, Economic Policy, Free Trade, Industry, and Value Chains
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8257. COVID-19 and the Health of Banking Sector in Japan and South Korea: A Comparative Study

Author:: Munim Kumar Barai
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: The economies of Japan and South Korea are dominated by banks. Both countries have created a complex financial structure, including a well-established banking industry at their heart that supports economic operations. However, both countries’ banking sectors have previously faced crises such as the Asian Financial Crisis (mostly in South Korea), the Japanese economic slowdown, and the financial crisis of 2007-08 (both). While the Bank of Japan (BOJ) approved the quantitative easing (QE) monetary policy and lowered interest rates to manage the crises, the Bank of Korea (BOK) pursued interest and financial restructuring as well as banking system digitization to overcome the crises. Covid-19 has disrupted the normal operation of banks, and the central banks and governments of both countries have implemented a variety of monetary and other measures to mitigate its economic and financial consequences. This study aims to identify and assess the health of domestic banks in Japan and South Korea for the Covid-19 ex-ante and interim periods. Several important variables, i.e., portfolios of assets and liabilities, asset productivity, stockholders' equity, profitability, and operating efficiency, have been included to evaluate the health of their banks. This compari-son of health metrics for 2010 to 2020 could help identify changes or shifts in the banking sector of Japan and Korea. The study has used ex-ploratory and descriptive methodologies to undertake qualitative and quantitative evaluations of important bank health indicators in the ex-ante and interim periods of Covid-19. It also used a hybrid method to produce research goals and arguments, including a framework based on what was already known in the field.
Topic:: Financial Crisis, Economy, COVID-19, and Banking
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, and South Korea

8258. The Effects of Online Export Promotion Policies for SMEs in Korea

Author:: Kyong Hyun Koo
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: This study explores the impact of participating in five major online export support programs currently being implemented by the Ministry of SMEs and Startups on online exports of SMEs in 2018-20. The main findings show that the online export support program appear to significantly have improved the online export-related performance of participating SMEs in a short period of time. In addition, the online export support program’s online export enhancement effect tend to be relatively greater when the participating SMEs have relatively little experience with online export and low sales volume. Manufacturers also appear to benefit from support programs more than resellers. In summary, the findings suggest that Korea's online export support policy has had a significant impact in providing incentives for SMEs to start/increase online exporting.
Topic:: Economics, Business, Exports, and Manufacturing
Political Geography:: Asia and South Korea

8259. The Emergence of African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement and Lessons from the Asia-Pacific Trade Agreement

Author:: Samuel Igbatayo
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Africa’s regional integration agenda arrived at a cross roads in 2019, with the adoption of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement. The AfCFTA framework came into force on 30th May, 2019, with its ratification by The Gambia, which brought the total number of African Union (AU) member state ratifications to twenty-two, the minimum threshold for AfCFTA implementation (Baker McKenzie 2019). As of May; 2022, forty-three of the 55 African countries have ratified the AfCFTA agreement (African Union 2018). The 12th Extraordinary Session of the Assembly of the African Union in Niamey on 7th July; 2019, witnessed the launching of AfCFTA’s operational phase, which is governed by five instruments, namely: the rules of origin, the online negotiating forum, the monitoring and elimination of non-tariff barriers; a digital payment system and the African Trade Observatory. In addition, the beginning of trade under the terms of the agreement was set for July 1, 2020 (TRALAC 2020). A free trade agreement (FTA) can be aptly described as a pact between two or more countries on areas in which they agree to lift most or all tariffs, and other barriers to imports and exports among them (Barone 2019). Under a free trade framework, goods and services can be traded across international borders, with little or no government tariffs, quotas, subsidies, or prohibitions to inhibit their exchange. The theory of free trade Agreements is rooted in classical economics, dating back to the era of Adam Smith. During this period, David Ricardo (1772-1823), a British political economist, was acknowledged with pioneering thoughts on free trade as a key instrument for wealth accumulation. The evolution of preferential trade agreements is traceable to the rise of European countries after World War II, with the establishment of the European Coal and Steel Community in 1951, a development that eventually culminated in the creation of the European Union (EU) (Johnston 2019). Spurred by the success of regional bodies with free trade agreements and Africa’s poor trading performance; estimated at a paltry 3% of annual global trade, the African Union embarked upon the creation of the AfCFTA agreement as a tool for Intra-Africa trade and regional integration.
Topic:: Economics, Treaties and Agreements, Regional Integration, and Free Trade
Political Geography:: Africa and Asia-Pacific

8260. Understanding Hainan Free Trade Port: China's Efforts to Explore High-level Opening-up

Author:: Wenfeng Wei
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: On 13 April 2018, upon the 30th anniversary of Hainan province, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced to build Hainan into a free trade port. According to the Master Plan for the Construction of the Hainan Free Trade Port released by the State Council on 1 June 2020, China aims to build this southern island province into a high-level free trade port with global influence by the middle of the century. As China's largest special economic zone, Hainan is expected to become the frontline of China's integration into the global economic system. Noting that the world is facing a new round of major development, changes and adjustment, with protectionism and unilateralism on the rise and economic globalization facing greater headwinds, it was also a strategic decision of Chinese authorities based on the domestic and international landscapes. As such, Hainan Free Trade Port (HNFTP) is more than a regional development initiative, and it has a much bigger role to play in China’s reform and opening endeavors.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Special Economic Zones, and Free Trade
Political Geography:: China and Asia

8261. Components of Industry Resilience to Maintain Sustainable Economic Growth under COVID-19 Within the Knowledge-Based Economy Frame-work: A Comparative Study Between Iran and South Korea

Author:: Marzieh Asaadi
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: COVID-19 was first reported in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 and spread rapidly across the globe. Then on March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic, causing more than 600 million confirmed cases and 6.49 million deaths around the world so far. The effects of the pandemic on societies can be examined mainly by two criteria: 1) the number of lives lost due to the disease (Mortality Rate), and 2) the number of jobs lost due to social distancing rules (fall in GDP). Both have a wide consequence for economic growth and other key macroeconomic indicators. An important explanatory factor for the significant difference between Case Fatality Rate (CFR) for Iran and Korea can be related to the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) components (Daliri and Asaadi 2021). The WGI is a composite index consisting of six measurement factors, including voice and accountability, political stability, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, the rule of law, and control of corruption. Furthermore, another critical factor is COVID-19 governance which can be monitored by calculating Government Stringency Index. This index is a composite measure based on several indicators which monitor the state of lockdowns and social distancing and range to values between 0-100, while 100 presents the most restrictive. In addition to the governance of COVID-19, from the perspective of public health and lives saved, maintaining jobs and supporting the resilience of industries to achieve SEG has been another important concern for nations and governments worldwide. As stated by Bernanke (2020), it is widely believed that the global economic crisis caused by COVID-19 is different from past crises in terms of cause, scope, and severity that suddenly disrupted economic activity. These necessitate research on the potential determination factors influencing the response of countries, companies, and individuals to the COVID-19 crisis. The key to ensure Business Continuity and SEG is to identify factors that increase the resilience of businesses under COVID-19 circumstances and other potential public health crises. Theoretical and empirical studies confirm that three main explanatory factors are at play: 1) macroeconomic structure and governance, 2) financial resilience of companies which is traced by available capital (i.e., the physical and human capital), and firms' adopted strategies and 3) digital evolution state and momentum and the adaptation of countries to technological innovations and Digital Intelligence, which is an indicator of transmission to KBE. By examining these components, it is possible to evaluate the structure and response of countries to the pandemic and post-COVID era. Thus, the report seeks to contribute to the literature on sustainable economic growth under crisis through a comparative study of Iranian industries with South Korea. The main research question here relates to the components of successful covid-19 governance from the perspective of SEG and business continuity within a KBE environment.
Topic:: Economic Growth, Industry, Resilience, COVID-19, and Knowledge Economy
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Asia, and South Korea

8262. Accelerating Transitions towards a Circular Economy and Policy Implications for Korea

Author:: Jinyoung Moon, Youngseok Park, Seung Kwon Na, Sunghee Lee, and Eunmi Kim
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: This study analyzes global efforts to transition to a circular economy, and analyzes each country's responses and major issues to the stages of waste generation and management, which decisively distinguish the existing economic system from the circular economy. In addition, this study examines cases of private-sector-led cooperation for sup-porting developing countries in terms of international cooperation and linking with international trade, and also analyzes the implications of information-based environmental policies in response to the circular economy. Finally, based on the results of these analyses, this study proposes policy measures to prepare for the circular economy.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, Economy, Trade, Private Sector, and Management
Political Geography:: Asia and South Korea

8263. Geopolitical Risk in the Era of U.S.-China Strategic Competition and Economic Security

Author:: Jai Chul Heo
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Recently, the intensification of U.S.-China strategic competition, spread of COVID-19 infections, and the Russia-Ukraine war are disrupting the global supply chain and increasing instability in the global economy. The resulting instability in the supply of semiconductors, medicines, food, and energy is leading to an economic downturn, and the U.S., China, Japan, and EU are actively pursuing strategies to strengthen economic security. The key to recent economic security is the U.S.-China strategic competition. Because the United States is re-tightening economic-security links that were loosened in the post-Cold War era to counter China's economic rise. And the concept of recent economic security largely includes the elements of economic statecraft, economic resilience, and building mutual trust.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Strategic Competition, COVID-19, Economic Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

8264. Digital Divide in Latin America and Opportunities for South Korea-Spain Cooperation

Author:: Angela Sagnella
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: The purpose of this brief report is to sketch the current characteristics of the digital divide in Latin America, especially following the effects generated by the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic, in an attempt to understand its crucial aspects and possible outlooks. In this regard, South Korea-Spain future cooperation on digitalization in Latin America will be discussed, as the two countries – by virtue of the long diplomatic tradition that unites them – are developing new horizons of cooperation to fill digital gaps in Latin America.
Topic:: Economics, Science and Technology, COVID-19, and Digital Cooperation
Political Geography:: South Korea, Latin America, and Spain

8265. The Export Effect of Servitization of Manufacturing

Author:: Hyunsoo Kim, Jungu Kang, Hyeyoon Keum, and Jae Wook Jung
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: This study examines the status and characteristics of Korea’s servitization of manufacturing and its impact on business performance and exports. In particular, we focus on servitization in manufacturing, which can be seen as a part of servicification in manufacturing. It is the phenomenon of manufacturing firms producing more services as final goods and provide them to the market with their products. Looking at the status of servitization in the manufacturing sectors focusing on the service sales generated by manufacturing firms, the servitization in manufacturing in Korea has gradually increased. Sales in service sectors, which stood at 4.5% of the total sales of manufacturing firms in 2012, surged to 15.9% in 2017, and then decreased to 6.9% in 2019. Based on the stylized fact that servitization in manufacturing in Korea has gradually increased, we empirically analyze the effect of servitization in manufacturing on the business performances and exports. The result suggets that the servitization in manufacturing is progressing in the direction of improving firm’s productivity, profitability, and exports.
Topic:: Economics, Business, Manufacturing, and Services
Political Geography:: Asia and South Korea

8266. Vietnam’s Global Value Chains Participation and Policy Implications for South Korea-Vietnam Economic Cooperation

Author:: Quang Hoan Truong
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: The term “value chain” refers to the whole production process of a good or service from the design and raw material processing to manufacturing and market services for the final customers. A global value chain (GVC) indicates production across multiple countries (Simola 2021). Wang et al. (2017) distinguish between simple and complex GVC activities and classify GVC participation in the following four activities: (i) export its domestic value added in intermediate exports used by a direct importing country to produce products for the importing country’s final consumption (simple GVC); (ii) export its domestic value added in intermediate exports used by a direct importing country to produce products for importing countries’ exports to third countries (complex GVC forward participation); (iii) importing foreign value added in intermediate imports to produce products for domestic use (simple GVC); (iv) importing foreign value-added in intermediate imports to produce products for its gross exports (complex GVC backward participation). Trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) are considered to be the main driving factors of Vietnam’s economic growth. However, Vietnam’s growth rates became substantially lower in the first decade of the 21st century and even lower after 2008, putting the country in high danger of falling into a middle-income trap (Nguyen and Truong 2022). Overcoming this huge challenge will require Vietnam to make greater progress in GVC participation, which can only be obtained by implementing the appropriate policy reforms and adjustments, particularly in FDI, trade, and industrial and institutional areas. In this regard, assistance and cooperation from Korea – an advanced economy, especially a top trade and FDI partner of Vietnam – would play a significant role in improving Vietnam’s GVCs participation. Against this backdrop, this study aims to examine Vietnam’s GVC participation. It then assesses the major challenges faced by Vietnam’s GVC participation. Based on this, the research draws relevant policy implications for Vietnam–South Korea (hereafter Korea) economic cooperation to improve Vietnam’s GVC participation in the following years.
Topic:: Foreign Direct Investment, Trade, Economic Cooperation, and Global Value Chains
Political Geography:: Vietnam and Southeast Asia

8267. International Spread of Anti-dumping Measures and Diversification of Investigation Methodologies

Author:: Moonhee Cho, Cheon-Kee Lee, Min Ji Kang, and Min-chirl Chung
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: As global economic growth has lost momentum due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the tension between U.S. and China, among other developments, concerns about the spread of protectionism are growing. In particular, anti-dumping (AD) measures are more likely to expand in the future in that they are relatively easy to take and have a direct effect on international trade compared to other protectionist trade policies. This study reviews the spread of AD measures and the effects of AD measures on trade. We also pay attention to the fact that AD investigation methodologies are being diversified. Focusing on particular market situation (PMS) and adverse facts available (AFA) provisions, which have been applied in many recent AD investigations on Korean export goods, we analyze the logic of investigation authorities.
Topic:: Economic Growth, Trade, COVID-19, and Protectionism
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

8268. Korea's Economic Presence in Iran under Trump and Its Prospects during the Biden Presidency

Author:: Shirzad Azad
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: On July 14, 2015, when Iran and the 5+1 group (the United States, Russia, China, France, Britain, and Germany) ultimately agreed over the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the Republic of Korea (ROK) was practically one of the top three trade partners of the Persian Gulf country. In early May 2016 and only a few months after the nuclear deal was carried through, the then Korean President, Park Geun-hye, made an official visit to Iran where the two countries vowed to ratchet up their economic relations from roughly $6 billion to more than $18 billion in the years to come. Accompanied by “the largest business delegation in the history of Korean presidential trips,” Park’s high-profile trip to Iran persuaded many interested experts and observers to believe that the East Asian country was really determined to shore up its economic weight in Iran by drawing certain policies relevant to the long-term presence of Korean businesses in the Middle Eastern country (Choi 2016). Despite all those upbeat expectations about the ROK’s future economic and technological role in Iran, however, various data and statistics coming out indicate that over the past several years nearly all well-known Korean brands and products have increasingly lost their market share in the Mideast country to brands and goods supplied by other competitors. As a matter of fact, in the late 1990s and early 2000s the East Asian nation emerged as one of the Persian Gulf country’s top trading partners in the world, outstripping a number of Tehran’s traditional trading partners from the West. And while Korea managed to even expand its economic presence in Iran in the heydays of sundry international sanctions levied against the Middle Eastern country over its contentious nuclear program a couple of years before the JCPOA was eventually agreed in 2015, the ROK has been doing relatively poor in Iran during the past years (Azad 2018). Such lackadaisical performance, epitomized by abandoning the long-established pattern of significant trade in energy with Iran, has critically influenced a sharp decline in the total volume of two-way commerce between the two countries. While the plummeting share of Korean brands and goods in Iranian markets had indubitably something to do with certain policies pursued by the Moon Jae-in-led Korean government, however, the main culprit turned out to be the Trump administration’s unilateral withdrawal from the nuclear deal in May 2018. The crippling sanctions which Washington under Trump subsequently imposed on Iran played a pivotal role in reshaping the scope and size of Korean commercial connections to the Persian Gulf country, though some unprecedented diplomatic and political troubles involving Seoul and Tehran during the past years have also had a lot to do with those punitive economic and financial measures targeting the Iranians. How did then the Koreans respond to those unique circumstances rendered largely by Trump’s approach toward the Persian Gulf country? What are going to be the prospects of a Biden administration’s policy shift for Korea’s economic performance in Iran? This study seeks to shed some light on Trump’s Iran policy with regard to Korea, its repercussions for the East Asian nation’s economic relationship with the Middle Eastern country, and potential solutions to chip away at those impediments under a Democrat administration in Washington led by Joe Biden.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Donald Trump, JCPOA, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Iran, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

8269. Recent Marriage and Labor Supply Pattern of Young Chinese Women

Author:: Yoon Jae Ro and Jeonghwan Yun
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: In this paper, we examine the impact of a sibling gender on educational attainment, earnings, family formation for a recent cohort of women in China. Family characteristics such as number of siblings, sibling gender composition, and parents’ characteristics may play an important role in children’s life as the presence of a sibling can affect parents’ treatment of the remaining children. Especially male siblings can affect children’s outcome through various pathways as male sibling may pull parental investment of resources away from girls, because boys may be seen as the “higher return” investment (Becker, 1991). We investigate the effect of having a (male) sibling on a daughter by exploiting the change in fertility trend in China induced by the One Child Policy (OCP).
Topic:: Economics, Labor Issues, Women, Marriage, Supply, and Gender
Political Geography:: China and Asia

8270. Exchange Rate Predictability Based on Market Sentiments

Author:: Hyo Sang Kim, Eunjung Kang, Yuri Kim, Seongman Moon, and Huisu Jang
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: It is well-known that exchange rates are difficult to forecast using observed macro-fundamental variables. This discrepancy between economic theory and empirical results is called the Meese and Rogoff puzzle. The purpose of this study is to address this puzzle from a new approach. Rather than pursuing a linkage between macro-fundamentals and exchange rates, we focus on the market sentiment index as a factor that could possibly enhance exchange rate predictability. The analysis folds into three phases. First, we conducted an assessment of the traditional exchange rate predictability model, as well as the augmented traditional model incorporating the market sentiment index. Second, we predicted the exchange rate by applying the market sentiment index, based on the contrarian opinion investment strategy commonly used by foreign exchange dealers. Finally, we analyzed if the machine learning model incorporating both economic fundamentals and market sentiment index could enhance the predictability of the exchange rate.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, and Exchange Rates
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8271. The U.S.-China Battle for Semiconductor Supremacy and Reshaping of Global Supply Chain

Author:: Hyung-gon Jeong
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: The realization of digital transformation (DX) and the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) has led to the development of new technologies in areas such as AI, big data, metaverse, autonomous vehicles, digital currency, and blockchain technology. While these sectors are expected to continue to grow, major countries including the United States and China are fiercely competing to secure a global supply chain for the semiconductor industry. Built on free trade, the global division of production in the semiconductor industry has driven corporate innovation and technology development. However, the trend of technological nationalism and countries’ efforts to build a value chain within their territory are expected to hurt the global semiconductor industry. The ever-deepening hegemony competition between the U.S. and China in the semiconductor industry could have a profound impact not only on the Korean economy but also on a restructuring of the global semiconductor supply chain. This study analyzes the supply chain structure and risks of the Korean semiconductor industry, along with U.S. and Chinese policies to foster the semiconductor industry, going on to explore corresponding countermeasures.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Supply Chains, Semiconductors, and Competition
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

8272. Tackling the Challenges of Climate Change Adaptation in Central America: Can Korea Contribute?

Author:: Seungho Lee
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Climate change adaptation has long been established as a regional and national priority in Central American countries. Korea, as a responsible middle power in global governance, should not hesitate to play a more active role in tackling their adaptation challenges. This brief summarizes a number of findings and policy suggestions from Lee et al. (2021), which identifies promising cooperation areas in the field of climate change adaptation between Korea and four Central American countries and proposes cooperation schemes in each area.
Topic:: Climate Change, International Cooperation, Governance, and Adaptation
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, and Central America

8273. Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:: Munsu Kang
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: This study investigates the climate change impacts on agriculture and conflict in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). SSA is the most vulnerable region responding to the weather shocks such as drought and flood. Furthermore, more than half of population in SSA are engaged in agricultural production that is highly affected by the rainfall pattern and temperature increases. For this reason, disruption of agriculture caused by the weather shock also can increase the probability of conflict such as demonstration and riot. This study focuses on 43 SSA countries after excluded small islands. Using scenario analysis, we find that temperature increases rather than precipitation might affect maize and sorghum production negatively while it is unclear for the rice production. We also find that increases in average temperature and maximum temperature might increase the probability of conflicts even if the effects of climate on riot and demonstration are U-shape pattern while it is reverse U-shape for battle and civilian conflicts.
Topic:: Agriculture, Climate Change, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

8274. To Regulate, or Not to Regulate? Subsidies for Foreign Enterprises, Climate Change, and Currency Undervaluation

Author:: Cheon-Kee Lee, Min Ji Kang, and Minjoo Kim
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: In response to today’s rapidly changing global trade environment, countries have continued to make changes to their policy objectives and instruments to address new and emerging issues such as supply chain restructuring and reshoring, climate change, and currency undervaluation. To this end subsidies have been playing a particularly important role, and are expected to be used more broadly across different sectors in the coming years. While controversies over government subsidization are likely to continue at the international level, the United States and the European Union have proposed at the domestic level to expand the scope of subsidy regulation and to tighten regulation on newly emerging subsidy types beyond the traditional boundaries set by international trade rules. Among a number of the latest developments on subsidy regulation, this Brief intends to primarily focus on (i) transnational subsidies granted by a government to enterprises active in other foreign countries (“foreign subsidies”); (ii) green subsidies for climate change mitigation; and (iii) subsidies related to currency undervaluation.
Topic:: Climate Change, Business, Currency, Trade, and Subsidies
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, United States of America, and European Union

8275. Development of the IT Industry and Structural Transformation: Focused on IT Cooperation with Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan

Author:: Minhyeon Jeong, Jiyoung Min, and Dongyeon Jeong
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: This study was designed as a primary study to analyze the economic significance and potential of cooperation with Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in the IT sector, and to derive implications for new directions between Korea and the three countries with the advent of the fourth industrial revolution era. The goal of the study is to discuss what the development of the IT industry means for the three economies, examine the characteristics of each country, and gain policy implications on how cooperation with Korea should proceed in the future. To this end, this study is consisted of the following four components. First, the economic significance of IT technology cooperation with Russia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan is viewed from the perspective of structural transformation. Second, the effect of IT cooperation between Korea and Russia on the Russian economy is quantitatively estimated through the analytical framework of structural transformation. Third, to supplement the limitations of theoretical discussions and derive customized cooperation directions for each country, the current status and policies of the IT industry in the three countries are examined in detail. Fourth, IT technology subsectors promising for cooperation between Korea and Russia are identified, from the patent citation analysis and network analysis.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Science and Technology, Industry, and Information Technology
Political Geography:: Russia, Central Asia, Eurasia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan

8276. The Impact of Immovable Property Tax on the Macro Economy

Author:: Young Sik Jeong, Eunjung Kang, Jinhee Lee, Kyunghun Kim, and Jeehye Kim
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Since the 2008 global financial crisis, inequality has been increasing worldwide. In particular, wealth (asset) inequality is getting worse than income inequality. And Korea is no exception. This deepening of inequality is more worrisome in that it leads to inequality of opportunity while suppressing movement between classes, which in turn deepens inequality, creating a vicious cycle of inequality. This is a bigger problem than the inequality itself. The international communities are calling for stronger property taxes, including recurrent taxes on immovable property, as part of mitigating inequality and promoting inclusive growth. In Korea, there is heated discussion on property taxes, such as recurrent taxes on immovable property including the comprehensive real estate tax. Therefore, this study aims to investigate policy directions in international organizations and major countries on immovable property tax and examine the effect of property tax on the macro economy. This study examine international comparisons of immovable property tax burdens using OECD data. Next, this study analyzes the effect of immovable property tax on housing prices, inequality, and economic growth. Finally, we suggest policy implications to Korea through this. Based on our results, we present policy implications for Korea.
Topic:: Inequality, Tax Systems, Macroeconomics, and Wealth
Political Geography:: Asia and South Korea

8277. Russia’s Energy Strategy in the Northeast Asian Region and New Korea-Russia Cooperation: Focusing on the Natural Gas and Hydrogen Sectors

Author:: Joungho Park, Boogyun Kang, Seok Hwan Kim, Won Soon Kwon, and Andrey Kovsh
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: This study attempts to identify new directions for energy cooperation between Korea and Russia, focusing on the areas of natural gas and hydrogen. In particular, we derive new directions and tasks for energy cooperation between the two countries, reflecting changes in the international energy environment, such as climate change and decarbonization, which are in full swing at the global level. To this end, this study is consisted of the following four parts. Part II examines the geopolitics of energy coming into the 21st century and Russia’s new energy strategy. Part III conducts an in-depth analysis of the energy cooperation strategies of China and Japan, major Northeast Asian countries, with Russia, and Part IV comprehensively evaluates Korea’s energy strategy and Korea-Russia energy cooperation. In conclusion, Part V presents new plans for Korea-Russia energy cooperation. As a side note, after carrying out this study, the policy environment for energy cooperation with Russia has significantly changed. Russia’s war against Ukraine is expected to change the landscape of global energy and its geopolitics in profound ways. In the midst of these significant changes, it is hoped that this study will serve as a meaningful reference for analyzing and forecasting the global energy dynamics surrounding Russia.
Topic:: International Relations, International Cooperation, Gas, Hydrogen, and Energy
Political Geography:: Russia, Asia, South Korea, and Northeast Asia

8278. A Review of the First Decade of the Korea-EU FTA

Author:: Dong-Hee Joe
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Last year marked the tenth anniversary of the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between the European Union (EU) and Korea, which entered into force in 2011. The EU is the world's largest economy and Korea's third largest trade partner, only after China and the United States. Back when the FTA nego-tiations began in 2007, the EU was Korea's second largest export destination, from which Korea enjoyed the largest surplus. Al-so, more than 35 per cent of Korea's foreign direct investment came from the member states of the EU. Korea is also a major econ-omy and a major trade partner of the EU, especially in Asia. The FTA with Korea was the first case of the EU's “next generation” FTAs, and is considered to have served as a benchmark for the EU's bilateral trade agreements thereafter (Kang 2016). As for Korea, it was the first FTA with a major economy, even before the US, its traditional ally, and China, its closest neighbor. Because of its importance, the Korea-EU FTA has received attention from economics and trade policy. KIEP also took a look at the first decade of its implementation last year (Joe et al. 2021). This Brief introduces some of the findings in Joe et al. (2021), fo-cusing on the impact of the FTA on the bi-lateral economic relationship between the two sides.
Topic:: European Union, Economy, Free Trade, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe, Asia, and South Korea

8279. Internationalization of the Korean Won in the Light of RMB Internationalization

Author:: Hyo Sang Kim, Young Sik Jeong, Ji Young Moon, and Da Young Yang
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: While China has risen to become a global superpower with a growing impact on the world economy, its currency, the Renminbi (RMB), has a limited role in the existing international financial system. China has made significant progress and will continue to push for the internationalization of the RMB, which can disrupt the global financial system, dominated by the US dollar. Under such circumstances, Korea must find a new direction for the internationalization of the Korean Won. The internationalization of the Korean won will provide new opportunities for the economy to take a further step through financial advancement.
Topic:: Economy, Currency, Internationalization, and Financial Development
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and South Korea

8280. Income and Consumption Inequality in Latin American Countries

Author:: Sungwoo Hong
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: The recent large-scale protests across Latin America show the seriousness of this inequality in the region. Accumulated complaints about poverty, inequality, and the gap between the rich and the poor are the root causes of the massive protests in Chile that broke out in October 2019 and the demonstrations in Colombia that started in April 2021. This brief looks into the following questions: 1) how profound is inequality in Latin America, and has there been no notable change in its pattern over time? 2) Are the current conditions of poverty and inequality and patterns of inequality the same across Latin American countries?
Topic:: Poverty, Income Inequality, Consumption, and Income
Political Geography:: South Asia and Latin America

8281. Australia’s Strategic Responses to the US-China Rivalry and Implications to Korea

Author:: Ina Choi, Sunhyung Lee, Jaeho Lee, and So Eun Kim
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: As in other Asia-Pacific countries, boosting trade with China has provided a growth engine for Australia's economy. Australia shared concerns over security threats posed by China’s military expansion, but up until the mid-2010s hard balancing against China did not seem to be an option for Australia. Australia’s recent moves against China, however, signal that Canberra has reset its China policy, with an overhaul of its national security and defense strategy. The shift of Australia’s China policy is an interesting case to explore how the regional order is likely to evolve in the growing US-China competition. Assessing Australia’s recent foreign policy is also relevant to Korea, both in terms of navigating Korea’s relations with the US and China and enhancing strategic ties between Australia and Korea. Against this backdrop, this study unravels Australia’s strategic responses to the changing regional order and draw implications for Korea's foreign policy.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, National Security, Economy, Trade, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: China, South Korea, Australia, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

8282. Korea’s Regional Cooperation and ODA Policy in Asia: Performance and Challenges

Author:: Aila Yoo and Yul Kwon
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic and ongoing geopolitical conflicts have deteriorated socio-economic conditions all around the world. As developing countries in Asia have made enormous progress in economic and social development based on the stable ground for growth, the development gap within the region has also been expanded. In addition, the region’s socio-economic conditions have become worse after the pandemic. Along with the pandemic crisis, there are several issues that have negatively influenced the region’s sustainable growth, such as climate change and climate-related natural disasters, and conflicts. These multiple crises change the development needs in the region, and cannot be solved through the efforts of any sole country but must be tackled through regional cooperation. While Korea strengthens its strategic approach for regional economic cooperation to expand its partnership with emerging countries and its Official Development Assistance (ODA) volume is highly concentrated in Asia region, Korea still focuses on cooperation with each country based on priority countries’ Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) without any integrated regional cooperation strategy. Strengthening inclusive partnerships would be a key to reduce the development gap in the region, by supporting regional programs such as the ASEAN Connectivity and Mekong Subregion development projects. To improve policy coherence and tackle the region-wide problems, Korea should adopt an integrated regional cooperation approach by reflecting the characteristics of Asia. This study analyzes changes in the socio-economic conditions and development environment in the Asia region and provides policy implications for preparing regional cooperation strategy for Asia.
Topic:: Economics, Regional Cooperation, Partnerships, Economic Cooperation, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Asia and South Korea

8283. Is Korea’s Social Services Employment Increasing Too Fast?

Author:: Dong-Hee Joe
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Employment in social services is on an increasing trend in the developed world. The average among the OECD countries, for instance, was about 43 employments per thousand population, or about 9.1 per cent of total employments, in 2005. In 2020, it has risen as high as 49 employments per thousand population and 10.4 per cent of total employment. In 2016, right before the previous Korean administration was inaugurated in 2017, Korea had 36.3 employments in social services per thousand population, far below the OECD average. Since then, social services employment grew the fastest in Korea among the OECD countries, narrowing its gap from the OECD average. By 2019, for instance, social services em-ployments per thousand population in-creased by 6.3, while the average among the OECD countries was 2.7. Is Korea’s fast increase “natural” or justifiable? As an attempt to shed some light on this issue, KIEP researchers estimated the determinants of the size of social services employment and used the results to compare the observed (i.e., actual) change with the predicted change (Joe et al. 2021 and Joe 2022). This exercise supports Korea’s speed of increase; that is, it was no faster than what is predicted by the estimated models. This Brief summarizes these exercises.
Topic:: Employment, Social Services, and OECD
Political Geography:: Asia and South Korea

8284. Leveraging Predeparture Counseling to Support Returning Migrants’ Sustainable Reintegration

Author:: Lucía Salgado
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Across the European Union, assisted voluntary return and reintegration (AVRR) programs have proliferated over the past several decades, amid mounting pressure on policymakers to increase the return rate of migrants without a right to stay in Europe. These programs are considered more cost-effective, humane, and pragmatic from a diplomatic perspective, and ultimately aim to help migrants reintegrate successfully into their communities of origin. Much of the reintegration assistance AVRR programs offer occurs after migrants arrive in their origin countries, but there is growing awareness that kickstarting this support before the return journey can play a decisive role in reintegration outcomes. It can have the dual benefits of helping migrants develop a clearer picture of life after return, and of collecting information that origin-country service providers can use to support them effectively after they arrive. Yet, the potential of predeparture counselling may remain untapped if information gaps between actors in origin and destination countries are not addressed. This policy brief provides an overview of predeparture counseling and information-sharing challenges in European AVRR programs. It then explores strategies for improving the exchange of information and, thus, better leveraging predeparture counseling to support returnees’ sustainable reintegration.
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Organization, Governance, European Union, Borders, Integration, Deportation, and Illegal Immigration
Political Geography:: Europe

8285. Humanitarian Pathways for Central Americans: Assessing Opportunities for the Future

Author:: Susan Fratzke and Andrea Tanco
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Since 2015, hundreds of thousands of Central Americans—primarily from El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras—have left their home countries due to an intertwined set of factors, including poverty, food insecurity, gang-related violence, and human-rights violations. Many have taken perilous journeys to seek protection in neighboring Mexico and the United States, where the scale and diverse profiles of asylum seekers have challenged the governments’ processing capacity. For most of these Central Americans, traveling by their own means to Mexico or the United States is the only avenue to seek international protection. While refugee resettlement programs allow states to vet and select individuals who have fled their country and are living in another, resettlement has typically been used on a very limited basis in the region. Some policymakers, notably in the United States and Canada, have begun to reconsider the role that resettlement could play in addressing these protection needs. This brief assesses how resettlement and other humanitarian pathways have operated in the region to date, and explores the opportunities and obstacles to scaling up these programs.
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Organization, Migration, Governance, Refugees, Resettlement, and Asylum
Political Geography:: Central America, North America, Mexico, and United States of America

8286. Embedding Reintegration Assistance for Returning Migrants in the Local Context: The Role of Referrals

Author:: Ravenna Sohst and Camille Le Coz
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: The objectives of European reintegration programs for migrants returning to their countries of origin have expanded in recent years. Reintegration assistance, instead of being delivered as standardized support packages, is increasingly being designed to take into account the multiple dimensions of returnees’ reintegration—economic, social, and psychosocial—and the context of the communities in which they settle. As these programs become more complex, it has also become clear that no one service provider can offer all of the various services necessary to meet returnees’ diverse needs and profiles. One way to broaden the range of supports available to returning migrants and embed reintegration assistance into the local context is to refer returnees to local actors, including government agencies and civil-society organizations. Such referrals, particularly when combined with capacity-building assistance for local partners, can help connect returnees with tailored, long-term support. Yet, there is no consensus across reintegration programs as to how referral mechanisms should be organized, what types of services referral partners should deliver, the level of budget support different actors need, and how their work should be monitored. This policy brief explores the role of referrals in reintegration programming, offering a typology of approaches taken across programs to date. It also discusses common challenges, emerging good practices, and promising next steps to improve the local embeddedness of reintegration assistance.
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Organization, Migration, Governance, Integration, Deportation, Reintegration, Immigration Policy, and Illegal Immigration
Political Geography:: Europe and Global Focus

8287. Promoting Evidence-Informed Immigrant Integration Policymaking

Author:: Jasmijn Slootjes
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Across Europe, immigrant integration policy has often been forged in the heat of crisis and driven by political priorities. This can be seen in the response to millions of people fleeing war in Ukraine and to the 2015–16 migration and refugee crisis. Resources and attention are much less frequently devoted to gleaning lessons from integration initiatives and using them to improve policymaking going forward. Yet, pressing labor shortages, strained government budgets, and social cohesion challenges all point to the importance of implementing integration policies that efficiently use limited resources—and that work. This policy brief explores why immigrant integration has fallen behind other policy areas in embracing an evidence culture and suggests ways to remedy this lag. It first examines recent progress and key gaps in this area, and then maps the obstacles that continue to hinder an evidence revolution in integration policy. The brief concludes with recommendations for creating an environment in which evidence-informed integration policymaking can thrive, including through the effective use of pilot projects, targeted funding, stakeholder engagement, and capacity-building initiatives.
Topic:: Migration, Law, European Union, Immigrants, Integration, and Immigration Policy
Political Geography:: Europe

8288. Reassessing Recruitment Costs in a Changing World of Labor Migration

Author:: Kate Hooper
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Recent years have seen national governments, multilateral organizations, civil society, and private-sector groups take steps to promote the fair and ethical recruitment of migrant workers, including efforts to reduce or eliminate recruitment costs. High recruitment costs can result in workers taking on a financial burden that can only be serviced through high-interest loans or debt bondage, placing them in a more vulnerable position and curtailing the income they can then save or send to loved ones via remittances. Still, progress to address recruitment costs has been uneven to date, and the pandemic has been a major setback. The public-health crisis has seen some existing costs rise or fluctuate wildly and new ones emerge (e.g., fees associated with COVID-19 testing and quarantine), with particularly pronounced effects in low- and middle-skilled sectors and informal employment. This has put working abroad out of reach for some would-be migrants while exposing others who travel abroad for work to new risks. This policy brief explores how the pandemic has affected costs for migrant workers at every stage of their journey, with a focus on new public-health measures and other additional expenses. It also reflects on what these developments mean for future efforts to promote fair and ethical recruitment. The brief is the first publication resulting from a multiyear research partnership between MPI and the SDC’s Thematic Section Migration and Forced Displacement to support the development of global solutions for migration-related challenges.
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Organization, Labor Issues, Governance, Employment, Economy, COVID-19, Recruitment, Immigration Policy, and Recession
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8289. Promoting the Inclusion of Europe’s Migrants and Minorities in Arts and Culture

Author:: Lucía Salgado and Liam Patuzzi
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Decades of sustained immigration have transformed many European cities into mosaics of different cultures. Yet this diversity is not always mirrored in the art celebrated in museums, the plays produced in major theaters, and the music heard in concert halls. In addition, well-intended efforts to celebrate ethnic and cultural diversity through art and culture run the risk of overemphasizing differences, exoticizing minority groups rather than contributing to the normalization of diversity within society. But this status quo may be changing. Widespread anti-racism protests have prompted long-overdue conversations about mis- and under-representation of minorities as well as discrimination in the cultural scene. At the same time, pandemic-related restrictions have placed further financial strains on the already fragile cultural sector, challenging organizations to reach new audiences in new ways. This MPI Europe report, which draws on interviews with cultural professionals from 11 European countries, explores approaches to strengthening the participation of migrant and minority communities in arts and culture, with potential benefits for immigrant integration outcomes, social cohesion, and the vibrancy and sustainability of cultural institutions. It examines migrants’ and minorities’ inclusion on three levels: as visitors of cultural venues and consumers of art, as featured artists and performers, and as leaders and staff within cultural institutions. The research was conducted within the framework of the Urban Agenda Partnership on the Inclusion of Migrants and Refugees, co-led by the City of Amsterdam and the European Commission and funded by the European Commission's Directorate-General for Migration and Home Affairs.
Topic:: Migration, Arts, Culture, Minorities, European Union, Integration, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Europe

8290. Digital Health Credentials and COVID-19: Can Vaccine and Testing Requirements Restart Global Mobility?

Author:: Lawrence Huang
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: More than two years into the COVID-19 pandemic, rising vaccination levels and widespread testing in many countries are giving governments and the public increasing confidence in international travel. A central part of efforts to restart mobility are digital health credentials, which verify a person’s vaccination, testing, and/or recovery status. These credentials help to minimize the risk of travelers carrying the virus, and unlike paper credentials that must be manually inspected in airports and at borders, digital credentials can be automatically verified. But even as digital health credentials are becoming increasingly common, gaps in international coordination and technical integration issues between different credential systems remain. As a result, migrants and travelers moving between—and at times within—countries must navigate a complex maze of digital systems. This report examines the implications of digital health credentials for international travel and for immigrants’ and travelers’ access to domestic services and venues that also use such credentials. It also explores the implications for specific groups: tourists and business travelers, students, labor migrants, asylum seekers and refugees, and unauthorized migrants. Finally, it offers policy recommendations to facilitate mobility and minimize risks for people on the move.
Topic:: Health, Immigration, Border Control, Employment, Mobility, Vaccine, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8291. Destination-Country Policies to Foster Diaspora Engagement in Development

Author:: Kathleen Newland
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: It is now widely recognized that emigrants and their descendants contribute greatly to the development of their countries of origin or ancestry, not only with remittances but also by starting businesses, through exchanges of knowledge, and more. And many migrant-origin countries have invested in connecting with their diaspora and leveraging its contributions. Far less attention has gone, though, to how countries of destination with substantial official development assistance programs are supporting—or could support—their resident diasporas’ engagement in the development of countries of origin. This report explores the diaspora engagement actions and policies of Western donor governments—including France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, and the United States—highlighting distinctive features. It considers a variety of modes of engagement, such as assistance with forming or strengthening diaspora organizations, grants for diaspora-led development projects, consultations, skills circulation initiatives, and support for entrepreneurship. The report also explores why more destination countries have not (consistently) operated diaspora-for-development programs, and offers lessons about effectiveness and sustainability.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, International Organization, Migration, Diaspora, Immigration, Governance, and Integration
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

8292. From Fear to Solidarity: The Difficulty in Shifting Public Narratives about Refugees

Author:: Natalia Banulescu-Bogdan
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Refugees and asylum seekers are alternatively depicted as heroes or security threats, victims or exceptional workers, exemplary neighbors or opportunists. And though public narratives are sometimes described as a binary, in reality, people can hold multiple, competing beliefs and opinions about forced migration and its impacts on society. They may, for example, experience pride in their country’s humanitarian response and compassion for refugees alongside anxiety over changing cultural norms or fear of competition for scarce jobs, each of which can become more or less salient under different circumstances. These public attitudes can create or constrain the space needed for sensible and creative policy responses, as well as community cohesion. As a result, governments, international organizations, and advocates have invested in myriad programs and campaigns to bolster solidarity and defuse negative reactions to forced migrants. Yet, as this study discusses, changing people’s minds is far from straightforward. This report—the first in the Beyond Territorial Asylum: Making Protection Work in a Bordered World initiative led by MPI and the Robert Bosch Stiftung—examines the different narratives that tend to emerge in communities welcoming forced migrants, looking at a variety of geographic, socioeconomic, and historical contexts. It also explores two categories of interventions that aim to address negative narratives about refugees and asylum seekers: information campaigns that aim to defuse threat narratives and “contact-building” initiatives that seek to build connections between refugees and host communities. The report concludes by offering strategies to promote solidarity and mitigate tensions.
Topic:: Immigration, Employment, Refugees, Economy, Asylum, Integration, Social Cohesion, COVID-19, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: Europe

8293. The Future of Remote Work: Digital Nomads and the Implications for Immigration Systems

Author:: Kate Hooper and Meghan Benton
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: The pandemic spurred a rapid shift in working practices. In the decades leading up to the COVID-19 crisis, technological advances had allowed a growing number of people with jobs not tied to a specific location to work remotely, particularly in high-income countries with robust technological infrastructure. But the social-distancing and lockdown measures implemented in early 2020 accelerated this trend, with many people working remotely for the first time and some “digital nomads” seeking to do so internationally. These changes in the world of work have important ramifications for immigration systems worldwide, most of which are poorly attuned to remote work arrangements. Finding ways to adapt immigration policies to keep pace with remote work trends is likely to remain important even as the public-health threat recedes in many places, as there are signs that many employers will continue to demonstrate far greater flexibility about where their employees work—both as a means to streamline operations and to attract and retain workers who are increasingly demanding the option to work remotely. This report examines the challenges that remote workers and their employers face when navigating immigration systems, and analyzes opportunities to introduce greater flexibility into immigration, employment, and tax policies to accommodate the rapid rise of nontraditional working arrangements. In the immigration sphere, it identifies options for adapting existing immigration pathways to accommodate remote work and discusses the new digital nomad visas that have sprung up in countries around the world.
Topic:: Migration, Employment, Immigration Policy, Remote Work, and Digital Nomads
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8294. The COVID-19 Catalyst: Learning from Pandemic-Driven Innovations in Immigrant Integration Policy

Author:: Jasmijn Slootjes
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Despite talk of COVID-19 as a “great equalizer,” the pandemic and its economic fallout have hit certain segments of European and North American societies particularly hard. Among them are immigrants and refugees, and especially groups with distinct vulnerabilities, such as refugee children, irregular migrants, and migrant women. Without swift government intervention, the twin public-health and economic crises risk jeopardizing immigrant integration and creating durable rifts in diverse societies. Yet precisely at a time when bold and agile policy responses are needed, the pandemic has disrupted governments’ usual ways of working. When lockdown and social-distancing measures were introduced in 2020, many in-person integration services were suspended, and both these programs and the day-to-day work of governments and civil-society organizations shifted online. This opened new opportunities but also hindered the engagement of migrants, policymakers, and other stakeholders with limited digital access or literacy. This report examines how governments’ immigrant integration strategies, partnerships, and policy priorities have changed in the two years since the pandemic began. It explores how this period of forced adaption has worked as a catalyst for innovation at the local, national, and (in Europe) EU level, drawing on interviews with senior policymakers and other experts in North America and Europe. The report then distills recommendations on how to leverage these innovations to durably improve the governance of immigrant integration.
Topic:: Education, Employment, Innovation, COVID-19, and Immigration Policy
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

8295. Rebooting the Asylum System? The Role of Digital Tools in International Protection

Author:: Hanne Beirens
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic is changing the way asylum systems use technology. After the initial pause on asylum processing in many countries, officials have turned to digital tools to revive these systems—and increasingly, to reimagine how they work. From the further digitalization of identification and security-check processes to chatbots that help asylum seekers register their protection claims and interviews conducted remotely via video call, such tools have permeated every corner of migration, asylum, and border management systems. This is particularly the case in Europe, where the 2015–16 migration and refugee crisis kickstarted a first round of growth in this area. With digital tools here to stay, the time is ripe to examine what impact their use has on people and processes, and how digitalization may interact with other developments in the international protection field. This report—part of the Beyond Territorial Asylum: Making Protection Work in a Bordered World initiative led by MPI and the Robert Bosch Stiftung—catalogues the use of digital tools in protection systems in Europe and elsewhere, and reflects on what the ramifications could be for humanitarian protection in the years to come. “Digitalization in and of itself is no universal cure,” the author writes, “and depending on how such efforts are carried out, they could obstruct the asylum process and violate asylum seekers’ rights as easily as they could facilitate or protect them.” This report highlights both the potential benefits of the increasing use of digital technology in different stages of asylum processes as well as key challenges and risks that need to be addressed, including concerns about data privacy, opaque decision-making, and how technology changes the nature of human communication.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Infrastructure, Border Control, Refugees, Asylum, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8296. Financing Responses to Climate Migration: The Unique Role of Multilateral Development Banks

Author:: Lawrence Huang, Ravenna Sohst, and Camille Le Coz
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: As climate change increasingly contributes to migration and displacement in many parts of the world, there is a pressing need for measures that build resilience and prevent displacement as well as those that help climate-affected people move to safety and support receiving communities. Multilateral development banks (MDBs) are critical, if sometimes overlooked, players because of their ability to invest in large-scale projects that contribute to sustainable development, primarily in low- and middle-income countries. This report explores the unique role of MDBs in the climate finance landscape and highlights opportunities for migration, humanitarian, and other key actors to partner with them on projects that effectively target climate-related migration and displacement. After reviewing the evidence on the complex linkages between climate and mobility, the report examines MDBs’ climate-related work to date, challenges they face to scaling up these efforts, and strategies to begin to address hurdles. These recommendations include learning from past MDB investments that have touched on climate migration, funding data collection or sharing to strengthen understanding of climate migration trends, and developing partnerships to support policy and project development, financing, and implementation.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Migration, Finance, and Banks
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8297. Countering Terrorism on Tomorrow’s Battlefield: Critical Infrastructure Security and Resiliency (NATO COE-DAT Handbook 2)

Author:: Sarah J. Lohmann, Lucas M. Cox, Denise Feldner, Trevor P. Helmy, and Katherine L. Kuzminski
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: Every day, malicious actors target emerging technologies and medical resilience or seek to wreak havoc in the wake of disasters brought on by climate change, energy insecurity, and supply-chain disruptions. Countering Terrorism on Tomorrow’s Battlefield is a handbook on how to strengthen critical infrastructure resilience in an era of emerging threats. The counterterrorism research produced for this volume is in alignment with NATO’s Warfighting Capstone Concept, which details how NATO Allies can transform and maintain their advantage despite new threats for the next two decades. The topics are rooted in NATO’s Seven Baseline requirements, which set the standard for enhancing resilience in every aspect of critical infrastructure and civil society. As terrorists hone their skills to operate lethal drones, use biometric data to target innocents, and take advantage of the chaos left by pandemics and natural disasters for nefarious purposes, NATO forces must be prepared to respond and prevent terrorist events before they happen. Big-data analytics provides potential for NATO states to receive early warning to prevent pandemics, cyberattacks, and kinetic attacks. NATO is perfecting drone operations through interoperability exercises, and space is being exploited by adversaries. Hypersonic weapons are actively being used on the battlefield, and satellites have been targeted to take down wind farms and control navigation. This handbook is a guide for the future, providing actionable information and recommendations to keep our democracies safe today and in the years to come.
Topic:: NATO, Climate Change, Terrorism, Infrastructure, Elections, Drones, Pandemic, Resilience, Supply Chains, and Energy Sector
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

8298. What Ukraine Taught NATO about Hybrid Warfare

Author:: Sarah J. Lohmann, Chuck Benson, Vytautas Butrimas, Georgios Giannoulis, and Gabriel Raicu
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 forced the United States and its NATO partners to be confronted with the impact of hybrid warfare far beyond the battlefield. Targeting Europe’s energy security, Russia’s malign influence campaigns and malicious cyber intrusions are affecting global gas prices, driving up food costs, disrupting supply chains and grids, and testing US and Allied military mobility. This study examines how hybrid warfare is being used by NATO’s adversaries, what vulnerabilities in energy security exist across the Alliance, and what mitigation strategies are available to the member states. Cyberattacks targeting the renewable energy landscape during Europe’s green transition are increasing, making it urgent that new tools are developed to protect these emerging technologies. No less significant are the cyber and information operations targeting energy security in Eastern Europe as it seeks to become independent from Russia. Economic coercion is being used against Western and Central Europe to stop gas from flowing. China’s malign investments in Southern and Mediterranean Europe are enabling Beijing to control several NATO member states’ critical energy infrastructure at a critical moment in the global balance of power. What Ukraine Taught NATO about Hybrid Warfare will be an important reference for NATO officials and US installations operating in the European theater.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Economics, Infrastructure, Cybersecurity, Renewable Energy, and Hybrid Warfare
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Central Europe, Western Europe, and Southeast Europe

8299. Enabling NATO’s Collective Defense: Critical Infrastructure Security and Resiliency (NATO COE-DAT Handbook 1)

Author:: Carl V. Evans, Chris Anderson, Malcom Baker, Ronald Bearse, and Salih Biçakci
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: In 2014 NATO’s Centre of Excellence-Defence Against Terrorism (COE-DAT) launched the inaugural course on “Critical Infrastructure Protection Against Terrorist Attacks.” As this course garnered increased attendance and interest, the core lecturer team felt the need to update the course in critical infrastructure (CI) taking into account the shift from an emphasis on “protection” of CI assets to “security and resiliency.” What was lacking in the fields of academe, emergency management, and the industry practitioner community was a handbook that leveraged the collective subject matter expertise of the core lecturer team, a handbook that could serve to educate government leaders, state and private-sector owners and operators of critical infrastructure, academicians, and policymakers in NATO and partner countries. Enabling NATO’s Collective Defense: Critical Infrastructure Security and Resiliency is the culmination of such an effort, the first major collaborative research project under a Memorandum of Understanding between the US Army War College Strategic Studies Institute (SSI), and NATO COE-DAT. The research project began in October 2020 with a series of four workshops hosted by SSI. The draft chapters for the book were completed in late January 2022. Little did the research team envision the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February this year. The Russian occupation of the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant, successive missile attacks against Ukraine’s electric generation and distribution facilities, rail transport, and cyberattacks against almost every sector of the country’s critical infrastructure have been on world display. Russian use of its gas supplies as a means of economic warfare against Europe—designed to undermine NATO unity and support for Ukraine—is another timely example of why adversaries, nation-states, and terrorists alike target critical infrastructure. Hence, the need for public-private sector partnerships to secure that infrastructure and build the resiliency to sustain it when attacked. Ukraine also highlights the need for NATO allies to understand where vulnerabilities exist in host nation infrastructure that will undermine collective defense and give more urgency to redressing and mitigating those fissures.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Infrastructure, Cybersecurity, Alliance, Crisis Management, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, North America, and United States of America

8300. The Future of the Joint Warfighting Headquarters: An Alternative Approach to the Joint Task Force

Author:: Eric Bissonette, Thomas Bruscino, Kelvin Mote, Matthew Powell, and Marc Sanborn
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: The US military must create standing, numbered, and regionally aligned Joint warfighting headquarters— American Expeditionary Forces (AEFs)—around a command council and a staff organized into Joint centers and cells. Calls for standing Joint force headquarters are not new, but the demonstrated military effectiveness of the Joint Task Force (JTF) model coupled with increasing service-specific resource requirements and tightening fiscal constraints have resulted in little evolution in joint force headquarters construction since the end of World War II. Analysis of the historical record has shown that joint warfighting is best conducted with a Joint warfighting command subordinate to the geographic combatant commands. However, the Joint Task Force model is problematic because the ad-hoc, post-crisis activation of JTFs, along with their antiquated command and control structure, inherently puts the United States at a strategic and operational disadvantage. In the future, the US military will primarily maintain its competitive advantage, especially in great-power competition, by being a superior and sustainable joint force sooner than its adversaries. The proposed AEFs draw on generations of hard-earned experience to maintain and grow American supremacy in Joint warfighting in an increasingly dangerous world.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Military Affairs, Army, and Joint Operations
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

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