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451. Playing the long game: Russia in the Mediterranean

Author:
Giangiuseppe Pili, Alessio Armenzoni, Gary C. Kessler, and Diane M. Zorri
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
Russia has fi rmly re-established its presence in the Mediterranean. Satellite imagery and geospatial analysis reveal that Russia is currently more active in North Africa and the Middle East, including operating a shadow fl eet of tankers that economically sustains Putin’s regime and its war eff orts in Ukraine. Given its size and capabilities, the current Russian squadron is not intended to engage in a full-scale naval battle against any NATO fl eet. Instead, it is deliberately kept weak enough to avoid being perceived as a major military threat.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, Navy, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, and Mediterranean

452. The hunt for Red October in warmer oceans: Climate change and anti-submarine warfare

Author:
Andrea Gilli and Mauro Gilli
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
Security scholars have traditionally looked at climate change from the perspective of civil wars, migrations and pervasive instability. NATO has recently started looking at climate change as one of the main threatmultipliers characterizing the current international system. Climate change can have a real impact on interstate rivalry and strategic competition, specifi cally by aff ecting water temperatures, currents and salinity, and thus sonar performance – a key asset in submarine and
Topic:
NATO, Climate Change, Armed Forces, Strategic Competition, Submarines, and Warfare
Political Geography:
Oceans

453. How China sees the future and what it means for NATO

Author:
Alice Politi
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
China’s military expansion and its geopolitical ambitions, especially in the Indo-Pacifi c macro-area, potentially present growing challenges for NATO. Offi cial documents show that the reunifi cation with Taiwan plays a critical role in China’s 2049 “Great Rejuvenation” goals. However, China’s military capabilities are still too limited to allow for an intervention in Taiwan in the short term. Despite China’s rapid progress in outer space and military sectors, internal challenges such as slowing economic growth and demographic issues raise doubts about its ability to achieve long-term ambitions.
Topic:
NATO, Geopolitics, Strategic Competition, and Military
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

454. How accurate is forecasting of military technologies?

Author:
Alexander Kott and Philip Perconti
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
We show that the accuracy of military technology forecasts is respectably high, 76% or better, depending on how an accurate forecast is defi ned. Long-term technology forecasting can be quite accurate and can inform NATO’s military research and development management decisions.
Topic:
NATO, Forecast, Research, and Military Technology
Political Geography:
Global Focus

455. Friends with benefits: Assessing Russian-Chinese military exercises

Author:
Narantsatsral Enkhbat
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
China-Russia joint strategic air patrols and naval manoeuvres near U.S. territory in the Pacifi c have become a growing trend, serving as geopolitical messaging. China is likely to become more involved in maritime security and power projection in the Arctic, as evidenced by its Coast Guard’s manoeuvres with Russia in the Northern Pacifi c. Russia conducts military drills and manoeuvres with China in the South China Sea (and potentially in the Taiwan Strait) to show support to China on territorial issues.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Geopolitics, Navy, Maritime, and Military Exercises
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Eurasia, Taiwan, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

456. Two to tango: Russian-Iranian drone cooperation

Author:
Katie Fricke, Taylor Hankins, and Victoria Jones
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
Iran and Russia are strengthening their partnership through collaboration on Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) development and deployment. Iran’s drone programme presents a multifaceted challenge to NATO. The acquisition of Western technology through reverse engineering, coupled with Iran’s growing reputation as a drone supplier, enhances its military capabilities and global infl uence. Russia’s use of Iranian drones in Ukraine exposes vulnerabilities in NATO-provided defence systems and undermines eff orts to protect member states and partner countries. The proliferation of this technology to other state and non-state actors complicates NATO’s defence strategies. It is important for NATO to understand the drone warfare dynamics shaped by the Russia-Iran partnership. Analysing their innovations and integration into military doctrines is crucial for anticipating threats and developing countermeasures.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Weapons, and Drones
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Eurasia, and Middle East

457. Human Rights Impact Assessment of Bolton Food’s Canned Tuna Operations in Morocco

Author:
Giorgia Ceccarelli and Ana Pérez Adroher
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
This paper reports on the second human rights impact assessment (HRIA) carried out by Oxfam at Nouvelle Cosarno, Bolton Food’s tuna cannery in the coastal city of Agadir, Morocco. The factory employs more than 400 workers, 90% of whom are performing manual tasks (blue-collar workers). Women make up the majority of the manual workers (71%). The main objectives of the assessment are: to identify the company’s actual and potential human rights risks and impacts at the production stages of its Moroccan factory; to identify the root causes of these risks and impacts; and to make recommendations to Bolton Food and key stakeholders on how to address, mitigate or remediate the actual and potential impacts identified. One main group of rights-holders was identified for the purposes of this assessment: male and female workers employed in canned fish processing plants (including canned sardine, tuna and shrimp) in Agadir.
Topic:
Human Rights, Labor Issues, Supply Chains, Wages, and Tuna
Political Geography:
North Africa and Morocco

458. Human Rights Impact Assessment of Bolton Food’s Canned Tuna Supply Chain in Ecuador

Author:
Giorgia Ceccarelli
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
This paper presents the first of three Human Rights Impact Assessments (HRIAs) conducted by Oxfam on behalf of Bolton Food, focusing on its tuna supply chain in Ecuador between 2021 and 2022. The assessment evaluates both actual and potential human rights impacts at the production stage of the value chain. It seeks to identify the root causes of these risks and impacts and to provide actionable recommendations to Bolton Food and relevant stakeholders on how to address, mitigate, or remediate them. For the purposes of this assessment, the primary group of rights-holders identified includes male and female workers employed in canned tuna processing plants in Manta, as well as male workers aboard tuna fishing vessels operating in the Eastern Pacific Ocean.
Topic:
Supply Chains, Tuna, Due Diligence, and Living Wage
Political Geography:
Latin America, Central America, and Ecuador

459. A (More) Feminist Approach to Principled Humanitarian Aid

Author:
Rachel Hastie
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Historically there has been very little discussion of feminism within the international humanitarian system. In recent years, some donor governments – including Canada, Mexico, and Germany – have adopted overtly feminist foreign policies and applied these to their strategies and guidance for humanitarian assistance. At the same time, aid actors have started to reconfigure their ways of working, vision, goals, and conceptualisation of humanitarianism in the light of decolonisation, anti-racism, local humanitarian leadership, and gender justice in the aid system. This discussion paper intends to prompt discussion and debate, by exploring what a feminist approach to principled humanitarian aid might look like practically, and what aid actors and the humanitarian system can to do to make it more of a reality.
Topic:
Feminism, Neutrality, Humanitarian Assistance, and Impartiality
Political Geography:
Global Focus

460. Takers Not Makers: The unjust poverty and unearned wealth of colonialism

Author:
Anjela Taneja, Anthony Kamande, Chandreyi Gunaray Gomez, Dana Abed, Max Lawson, and Neelanjana Mukhia
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Billionaire wealth has risen three times faster in 2024 than in 2023. Five trillionaires are now expected within a decade. Meanwhile, crises of economy, climate and conflict mean the number of people living in poverty has barely changed since 1990. Most billionaire wealth is taken, not earned- 60% comes from either inheritance, cronyism, corruption or monopoly power. Our deeply unequal world has a long history of colonial domination which has largely benefited the richest people. The poorest, racialized people, women and marginalized groups have been and continue to be systematically exploited at huge human costs. Today’s world remains colonial in many ways. This must be reversed. Reparations must be made to those who were brutally enslaved and colonised. Our modern-day colonial economic system must be made radically more equal to end poverty. The cost should be borne by the richest people who benefit the most.
Topic:
Inequality, Colonialism, Cronyism, Monopoly, Justice, Reparations, and Gender
Political Geography:
Global Focus

461. Innovative Pathways: When and how to use alternative approaches to Human Rights Impact Assessments

Author:
Caroline Brodeur and Eline Achterberg
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Human rights violations are widespread across global supply chains, with companies increasingly exposed to risks like forced labor and environmental degradation. While audits and certifications have proven insufficient in preventing such abuses, a more robust approach is necessary. A Human Rights Impact Assessment (HRIA) is an essential tool that helps businesses identify and assess human rights risks by engaging directly with affected rightsholders. This process is becoming more critical, especially with new regulations like the EU's Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive, which mandates comprehensive human rights and environmental due diligence (HREDD) for large companies starting in 2027. To make the HRIA process more efficient, some companies are exploring alternatives like joint HRIAs, sector-wide impact assessments, and rapid assessments. Joint HRIAs allow companies to share resources and expertise, especially when they source from the same suppliers or regions, while sector-wide assessments provide a broader view of industry-wide impacts. Rapid assessments are a faster alternative, focused on urgent or well-documented issues. Regardless of the approach, companies must adhere to key criteria to ensure effectiveness: selecting appropriate targets, engaging rightsholders meaningfully, addressing root causes, ensuring transparency, and committing to action. These principles ensure that the assessment process is thorough and leads to real, lasting improvements in human rights practices. Cutting corners in the due diligence process is not an option.
Topic:
Human Rights, Business, Impact Evaluation, and Due Diligence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

462. Personal to Powerful: Holding the line for gender justice in the face of growing anti-rights movements

Author:
Lata Narayanaswamy and Amina Hersi
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Thirty years on from the commitments enshrined in the Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action (BPfA) this briefing reveals a picture of broken promises and unfulfilled ambition by States. This failure is not just due to a lack of political will, but also an economic system that is unequal by design. As world leaders prepare to review their commitments to the BPfA, they must reject the mainstreaming of anti-rights actors and their co-optation of human rights language as this risks violating universal human rights and eroding the hard-won gains of feminist and LGBTQIA+ activists and movements, ultimately breaking the social contract between the state and people.
Topic:
Women, Feminism, Decolonization, Care work, Gender Justice, and Bodily Autonomy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

463. Fast, Fair, Funded and Feminist: A pathway to a just and transformative climate transition within and beyond the UK

Author:
Natalie Shortall, Chiara Ligouri, and Ruth Mayne
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The world is in the grip of a climate emergency. Urgent and equitable action is essential to prevent yet further escalating climate impacts that are devastating communities worldwide and to safeguard a liveable planet for future generations. For governments everywhere, including the UK Government, this is a defining test of leadership. But it is also a moment of opportunity—an opportunity to build economies and societies that are not only decarbonised and climate resilient, but that actively reduce inequalities, are more inclusive, and prioritise the wellbeing of people and the planet over short-term profit. In this report, we outline key steps the UK Government can take to lead the way toward a just and transformative transition—one that not only stabilises the climate but also delivers fairness and justice for all.
Topic:
Climate Change, Government, Transition, Climate Justice, and Net Zero
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

464. Beyond the Targets: An ambitious agenda to put aid back on track

Author:
Salvatore Nocerino
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Aid can make a huge contribution to significantly reducing inequality. Given the widespread agreement that bringing down inequality is necessary to underpin efforts to end poverty, achieve gender justice and successfully fight climate change, there is an urgent need for donors to make this a priority in their aid policies. For this virtuous cycle to be effective, there is also an imperative to rebalance decision-making on aid, ensuring it is done in an inclusive way that centres Global South governments and civil society. Building on the findings of the 2019 Oxfam report 'Hitting the Target: An agenda for aid in times of extreme inequality', this paper presents a new and updated agenda to put aid back on track given recent changes in the development landscape and the multiple crises facing our world. It makes 10 concrete recommendations on how to ensure development finance effectively contributes to building a more equal and sustainable world.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, Poverty, and Inequality
Political Geography:
Global Focus

465. Raising the Bar: Supermarkets must urgently address structural exploitation of cocoa farmers

Author:
Jesse Arnon and Anouk Franck
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Most cocoa farmers in main cocoa producing countries Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana are poor, even though they are at the heart of the supply chain for a luxury good: chocolate. For decades they have been receiving low farm gate prices, which don’t allow them to earn a living income for their families. At the same time, companies in the cocoa and chocolate supply chains have been making huge profits. Supermarkets in the Netherlands and Germany have taken first steps by making long-term commitments to ensuring cocoa farmers are paid a living income reference price, but the share of honest chocolate they have on offer only reaches 5%. It’s time that they radically change the way they do business, by committing to long-term fair prices for farmers, sharing the risk with cocoa farmers and being accountable for all the chocolate products they sell. This paper focuses on supermarkets, which are powerful actors in the cocoa and chocolate supply chain. As primary retailers, supermarkets have a direct link with consumers and have power across the supply chain so they can drive real change. Dutch and German supermarkets have made living income commitments, and they have started implementing them.
Topic:
Human Rights, Business, Cocoa, Farming, Living Income, and Supermarkets
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, Netherlands, and Global Focus

466. Water-Driven Hunger: How the Climate Crisis Fuels Africa’s Food Emergency

Author:
Giuseppe Selvaggi and Elise Nalbandian
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
This paper calls for an integrated water and food security management in eight Eastern and Southern African countries—Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Somalia, South Sudan, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. These countries, identified as Hunger Hotspots for 2025 and among the 30 most water insecure globally, are also experiencing the severe impacts of climate variability. The paper strongly recommends that multilateral bodies, governments, donors, and the private sector implement sustainable adaptation and mitigation measures—such as strengthening national hydro-meteorological forecasting systems, increasing investment in anticipatory action, ensuring access to climate finance etc. to tackle the root causes of these crises. Furthermore, it also provides insights into effective water management practices that can help national governments and policymakers adopt comprehensive policies, ultimately improving governance to tackle the triple crises of water, food and climate.
Topic:
Climate Change, Water, Hunger, and Water Insecurity
Political Geography:
Africa

467. Land, Peace and Security: Secure access to land as a vital guarantee for the protection of communities in the Sahel

Author:
Mohamadou Fadel Diop
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The lack of secure access to land is a major driver of physical and food insecurity, violence, and violations of the fundamental rights of internally displaced persons (IDPs) and their host communities. This briefing paper outlines the causes and consequences of restricted land access and explores its links with protection risks in the context of violent conflict and climate change in the Sahel. It highlights the essential role of secure land access and land rights in economic empowerment and protection policies for IDPs and host communities in the Central Sahel, in line with the “Triple Nexus” approach connecting humanitarian action, development and peace.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, Displacement, Land Rights, and Protection
Political Geography:
North Africa and Sahel

468. The Private Sphere Trap: Women and the climate crisis in Iraq

Author:
Laila Barhoum
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
This Oxfam briefing paper examines the intersection of gender inequality and climate change in Iraq, focusing on the agricultural sector. Women in Iraq face systemic barriers that confine them to the "private sphere," limiting their participation in decision-making processes critical to climate adaptation and mitigation. Through qualitative research, including focus group discussions and key informant interviews, the paper highlights how social norms, economic dependency, and lack of access to resources exacerbate women’s vulnerability to climate impacts. It provides actionable recommendations to foster inclusive climate action, such as raising awareness, leveraging respected female leaders, and improving technical support for farmers. The report underscores the urgent need to dismantle male-dominated structures to build a resilient and equitable future for Iraq.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Inequality, Rural, Decision-Making, Adaptation, Livelihoods, Gender, and Social Norms
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

469. From Pledges to Progress: Tracking climate finance flows and accountability in Nigeria and Uganda

Author:
Tallulah Cherry-Virdee
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Oxfam’s Climate Finance Shadow reports have shown that high-income countries have failed to deliver on their commitment to mobilize climate finance for low- and middle-income countries. In 2024, two country reports, on Uganda and Nigeria, were published that analyzed how the insufficient international climate finance that is reaching their governments is being spent at national and subnational level. The two reports also lay out ways for how civil society can track these flows, ensure meaningful community participation, and hold their governments accountable. This paper analyses the findings and commonalities from the reports on Uganda and Nigeria, and includes recommendations for climate finance providers, national and subnational governments, and civil society on how climate finance can be spent fair, transparent, accountable and in an inclusive manner.
Topic:
Budget, Climate Finance, Citizenship, Accountability, and Participation
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, and Nigeria

470. No Women, No Peace – A Snapshot of Oxfam’s Engagement with the Women, Peace and Security Agenda: Lessons and Opportunities

Author:
Marie Sophie Petersson, Lydia Ayikoru, Souhadou Diasso, Fatma Jaffer, and Moath Jamal
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
This briefing paper summarizes the important lessons learned since 2018 by Oxfam Denmark and the wider Oxfam confederation while promoting the women, peace and security (WPS) agenda and supporting WPS programming in Burkina Faso, Colombia, Ghana, Kenya, Lebanon, Mali, Niger, the Occupied Palestinian Territory, South Sudan, Syria, Uganda, Ukraine and Yemen, including under the Danish International Development Agency (Danida) strategic partnerships. It contains practical and policy-level recommendations for international actors working on the WPS agenda in various crisis and conflict contexts globally. The briefing paper shows that supporting and amplifying locally led feminist action by diverse women-led, women’s and LGBTQIA+ rights organizations, networks and groups is a central foundation for peace and justice.
Topic:
Leadership, Crisis Management, Gender, Protection, Localization, Women, Peace, and and Security (WPS)
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Middle East, and Global Focus

471. The impact on developing economies of WTO dissolution

Author:
Lloyd Barton
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
This report revisits the analysis presented in our April 2024 paper on the potential impact of WTO dissolution, drilling down to quantify national-level impacts for a sample of ten developing economies. Our previous report (The economic impact of abandoning the WTO) focused on presenting aggregated results for developing countries by region and income level. This report drills down to quantify impacts for a sample of ten individual countries: Brazil, Cameroon, China, Egypt, Guatemala, Indonesia, India, South Africa, Turkey, and Vietnam. These countries provide a rich, varied sample that captures the complexity of trade policy in the developing world. Their diversity in geography, economic size, policy orientation, and development stage allows for a nuanced analysis of how WTO dissolution could potentially influence pathways to higher incomes, poverty reduction and economic resilience. Our analysis reinforces the importance of ensuring the WTO can adapt to new trade realities and continue to function as an effective global trade body.
Topic:
Economics, Poverty, Trade, Economic Development, and WTO
Political Geography:
China, Indonesia, Turkey, India, South Africa, Brazil, Vietnam, Egypt, Guatemala, and Cameroon

472. The Economic Impact of the On-demand Service Industry in Indonesia

Author:
Bali Kaur Sodhi and Hwee Shi Yong
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
The on-demand service industry in Indonesia has become a vital component of the country’s digital economy, improving the everyday lives of millions of Indonesians through its multi-service platforms. Our analysis suggests that the industry, which covers ride-hailing and delivery services, facilitated a total economic contribution worth Rp91.7 trillion to Indonesia’s economy in 2023. In addition, the industry also supported an estimated 588,000 jobs and contributed Rp33.2 trillion in household income. This impact is generated through purchases on the on-demand service platforms and the economic activity it supports among the local supply chains in the wider Indonesian economy. For every employee hired by platform operators, an additional 112 workers are supported in other parts of the Indonesian economy. Every Rp100 of GDP generated by purchases made through on-demand service platforms leads to further economic activity worth Rp110 across the rest of the Indonesian economy. Beyond its economic contributions, the on-demand service industry promotes financial inclusion in Indonesia by offering unbanked individuals and small merchants access to financial services and microloans. On-demand service platforms also connect driver-, delivery-, and merchant-partners to Indonesia’s digital economy, enhancing digital literacy and creating new pathways for economic participation.
Topic:
Economics, Digital Economy, Digital Platforms, and Service Industry
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

473. Introducing Hafiz Pashayev’s An Ambassador’s Manifesto

Author:
Damjan Krnjević Mišković
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
There is a word in the Azerbaijani language—ağsaqqal—which means something like a wise and respected elder of the community from whom one traditionally seeks advice. Hafiz Pashayev is widely acknowledged as the ağsaqqal of the country’s diplomatic service. And the book we are here to celebrate is an important element in explaining this status he deservedly enjoys. Now, before Hafiz m. came to be widely regarded as the ağsaqqal of Azerbaijani diplomacy, he became a founder (fondatore) of “new modes and orders,” as a Florentine political philosopher of the highest rank memorably put it centuries ago [NM, D I:pr.1]. In fact, Hafiz m. founded two such new modes and orders: Azerbaijan’s diplomatic presence in Washington in November 1992, and, here in Baku, the Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy in March 2006, which in January 2014 was granted a charter and thus officially transformed, following the founder’s original intention, into ADA University. We are here this evening to discuss his memoir of this first founding, titled An Ambassador’s Manifesto. A memoir of the second—or at least on the pedagogical and state‑building logic informing this second founding—is yet to come.
Topic:
Diplomacy and Memoir
Political Geography:
Eurasia and Azerbaijan

474. Climate Change, Vulnerable Groups, and Data-Driven Policymaking

Author:
Selahattin Selsah Pasali
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
More than four in five people in Asia and the Pacific reportedly face multi‑hazard risks associated with slow or sudden onset climate events, according to the latest Asia‑Pacific Disaster Report published by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). Many existing hotspots of climate‑related multi‑hazards are forecast to intensify. Individuals residing in these hotspots, often already low‑income and with limited access to basic services and infrastructure, will likely be exposed to more frequent and intense sudden‑ and slow‑onset natural disasters. Noteworthy is the assessment that migrants, refugees, internally displaced persons (IDPs), and stateless persons residing in many parts of these vast geographic areas reportedly face even more daunting challenges in this category, due to their vulnerable legal status, limited coping capacity, and access to basic services and opportunities.
Topic:
Climate Change, Inequality, Displacement, and Vulnerability
Political Geography:
Asia

475. Progress in Ending Statelessness in Europe

Author:
Sam Mosallai
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Europe is home to almost 500,000 stateless people or people with undetermined nationality, mainly due to the dissolution of the former Soviet Union and the former Yugoslavia over three decades ago. Other causes of statelessness in Europe include the lack of safeguards to prevent children from being born stateless, gaps in universal birth registration, and, to a lesser extent, the deprivation of nationality as a counterterrorism measure. Many Roma, particularly those residing in Southeastern Europe, are stateless or at risk of statelessness due to persistent discrimination against them. Additionally, due to the lack of dedicated statelessness determination procedures found in many countries in Europe, many stateless migrants cannot enjoy the rights to which they are entitled under international law.
Topic:
Discrimination, Nationality, and Statelessness
Political Geography:
Europe

476. A Region without Statelessness?: How Central Asia Proved It Is Possible

Author:
Sergiu Gaina
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Imagine living in the country where you were born but never having the right to call it home. No passport, no identity document, no access to education, healthcare, or legal employment. Every visit to a government office ends the same way: “We have no record of you.” For hundreds of thousands of people in Central Asia, this was their reality. Statelessness—where a person is not recognized as a national (citizen) by any country—left them in limbo, unable to fully participate in society. It meant exclusion from essential services, vulnerability to exploitation, and a life spent on the margins, with no clear path to change. But things have changed. Over the past decade or so, Central Asia has led the world in ending statelessness. The region has solved one‑third of all statelessness cases globally—a clear demonstration that with sufficient political will and strategic action, this problem can be eradicated. Since 2014, more than 220,000 formerly stateless people in Central Asia have acquired nationality (citizenship), making it one of the most successful regions in the world in reducing stateless populations.
Topic:
Citizenship, Services, Nationality, and Statelessness
Political Geography:
Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan

477. Uncharted Rebellion: The Shifting Frontiers of Left-Wing Extremism

Author:
José Pedro Zúquete
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
For readers of Baku Dialogues, a journal dedicated to fostering intellectual exchange across the Silk Road region, the study of left‑wing extremism (LWE) offers a lens into global ideological currents that resonate even in this historically rich and geopolitically and geoeconomically significant area. The Silk Road region, stretching from the South Caucasus to Central Asia, has long been a crossroads of cultures, ideas, and political movements. Today, it faces many of the same challenges of radicalization and extremism that afflict other parts of the world, though often in unique local forms.
Topic:
Security, Geopolitics, Leftist Politics, and Political Extremism
Political Geography:
Central Asia and South Caucasus

478. Sharks in the Muddy Waters: Terrorism and Mounting Global Disorder

Author:
Jahangir E. Arasli
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
The international system is in increasing disarray, thanks partly to systemic and structural factors. The strategic competition between major powers and groups of states is growing sharply. One particular consequence of this process is an escalation in scale and scope of shooting wars and armed conflicts (e.g., in Europe and the Middle East) and other antagonisms on the edge of war (e.g., Taiwan, the South China Sea, and South Asia). Moreover, the existing geopolitical alignments are shifting oddly. Neo‑revisionism, expansionist foreign policies, and advanced territorial claims militarize international relations. With a reoccurrence of “utility of force,” the standing norms of international law are frying, and WMD proliferation regimes and arms control treaties are crumbling. Trade wars and deteriorating growth prospects are increasing strains and risks to the global economy and individual states. Political and ideological polarization in societies, institutional decay, inefficiency of elites, and the rise of populism affect states’ stability. The challenges of climate change and emerging technologies remain unanswered and unsettled.
Topic:
Terrorism, Geopolitics, Armed Conflict, and International System
Political Geography:
Europe and Middle East

479. A Proposal for a Trans-Caspian Development Bank

Author:
Carlos Roa, Charles Yockey, and Ibrahim Mammadov
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Diplomacy is not alchemy. Just as lead cannot be magically turned into gold, grand visions require practical tools to become reality. The Middle Corridor—a trade and transport route stretching from Central Asia across the Caspian Sea to the South Caucasus and onward to Türkiye and the European continent—is one such vision. The corridor has captured the imagination of policymakers and strategists, who seek to reorient global trade flows, diversify energy routes, and diminish dependencies on geopolitical chokepoints like the Suez Canal. Yet, for all its potential, the Middle Corridor still remains more of an ambition than a reality, constrained by insufficient infrastructure, fragmented political coordination, and—perhaps most importantly, a lack of cohesive financial strategy. For the Middle Corridor to succeed as a vital artery of international commerce, it requires more than bilateral agreements and fragmented investments. The project requires a dedicated institution capable of bridging its diverse stakeholders, financing transformative projects, and aligning growth with the twenty‑first century’s imperatives like digital innovation and climate adaptation. A Trans‑Caspian Development Bank (TCDB) could provide precisely the kind of focused and flexible framework needed to turn the Middle Corridor into a thriving economic corridor. By pooling resources and expertise from member states, private investors, and international partners, the TCDB would fill the critical gap between lofty ambitions and actionable progress.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Geopolitics, Trade, and Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs)
Political Geography:
Central Asia and South Caucasus

480. Assessing the Achievements of COP29

Author:
Elnur Soltanov
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Azerbaijan became the first country from the Silk Road region to host an annual session of the Conference of Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change—in this case, the 29th session. Hence, COP29. This took place in Baku between 11 and 22 November 2024 and had something like 76,000 registered participants. And Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry has a document that says that COP29 “was attended by representatives of 196 countries and nearly 200 international, regional, and other organizations. More than 80 heads of state and government participated at the World Leaders’ Climate Action Summit organized within the framework of COP29 on 12-13 November 2024.” So, evidently, this was hard to pull-off successfully.
Topic:
Climate Change, Diplomacy, and Conference of the Parties (COP)
Political Geography:
Eurasia and Azerbaijan

481. Achieving Minimum Viable Cyber Resilience: A Leadership Top Ten “To-Do” List

Author:
Steve Hill
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
I t is a reflection of the growing maturity of the cybersecurity industry that when the UK’s Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, Pat McFadden, a senior cabinet minister responsible for national security, claimed in a speech to the November 2024 NATO Cyber Defence Conference that Russia “can turn the lights off for millions,” he was roundly criticized for hyperbole. Pragmatism has replaced alarmism as the driver for persuading the state and the C-suite to invest in cybersecurity. The world has neither ever been more complex nor more fast-moving. But that is not the same as saying that the world is more dangerous. The same inter-connectedness that creates supply-chain fragility also acts as a disincentive for governments whose priorities are primarily inward-looking (domestic stability and growth) to escalate conflicts to outright regional or global warfare that will likely undermine that domestic agenda. We see therefore brinkmanship and “grey conflict” taking place throughout the world. This includes targeted assassinations, arson attacks, disruption of underseas cables, drone activity, social media election influence campaigns, and all kinds of cyber-attacks.
Topic:
NATO, Cybersecurity, Gray Zone, Resilience, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and North America

482. PfP Enters its Fourth Decade: A Journey Undertaken with Azerbaijan

Author:
Rick Fawn
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Azerbaijan was one of the first countries to join NATO’s major outreach program, Partnership for Peace (PfP), upon its establishment at the Alliance’s summit in Brussels on 10-11 January 1994—a year that also marked the fifty-fifth anniversary of the founding of the Alliance itself. This happened on 4 May 1994, when President Heydar Aliyev came to Brussels to sign the Partnership for Peace Framework Document, an event that took place about a year after he returned to Baku to begin pulling the country back from the edge of total collapse. Surely there was an element of deliberate sequencing involved, for the very next day after signing this document, on 5 May 1994, a final agreement was reached on a Russianbrokered ceasefire to end the First Karabakh War between Armenia and Azerbaijan. And only four months later, in September 1994, the negotiations on the Contract of the Century were successfully concluded that would facilitate the export westwards of Azerbaijan’s hydrocarbons rather than through Russia. This last development had been predicated—and again unlikely to be coincidental timing—by the Clinton Administration’s abandonment of its “Russia First” policy, which had elevated Moscow’s interests above those of other post-Soviet successor states.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, Partnerships, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Eurasia and Azerbaijan

483. Training Diplomats in Azerbaijan: Past Successes and Future Plans

Author:
Fariz Ismailzade
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
With the collapse of the Soviet Union and the emergence of Azerbaijan as one of 15 newly independent republics in 1991, the development of a sovereign and professional diplomatic service became of utmost importance and urgency. Doing so, it was understood, was a necessary attribute and instrument for pursuing a country’s foreign policy agenda, which at minimum should aim to strengthen sovereignty, minimize external risks, develop bilateral and multilateral relations, and properly position a given country on the global map of nations. Yet apart from Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine, Azerbaijan and the remaining 11 former Soviet republics had limited experience with a truly professional and competent diplomatic service. The Soviet Union granted little authority to the ‘ethnic republics’ and provided them with no autonomy in foreign relations. Consequently, the offices of the republic-level Ministries of Foreign Affairs remained quite small and primarily handled protocol responsibilities for foreign dignitaries and guests traveling from Moscow to those parts of the country. The one in Baku, for instance, was established in 1944 as the People’s Commissariat of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Sovereignty, Training, and Post-Soviet Space
Political Geography:
Eurasia and Azerbaijan

484. Breaking Free from Parochial Geopolitical Complexity: Azerbaijan’s Quest for a Third Path

Author:
Vasif Huseynov
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Though geographically small at 186,043 square kilometers—and dwarfed by neighboring Iran, Türkiye, and especially Russia—the South Caucasus is home to over 50 distinct ethnic groups, encompassing a diverse tapestry of languages, religions, and cultures. Another unique characteristic for a region of this size is its consistent role as a microcosm of global geopolitics. This has been the case since the region’s three countries regained their respective independence from the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, with each aligning with different geopolitical centers. While Georgia pursued Euro-Atlantic integration, Armenia aligned with Russia within the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). Azerbaijan, adopting a balanced foreign policy, opted for neutrality, maintaining equidistance and cultivating friendly, mutually-beneficial relations with both Russia and the West.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Diversity, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus

485. Washington’s Opportunity in Central Asia (and the South Caucasus)

Author:
Stephen Blank
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
As the Trump Administration conducts a global survey of strategic opportunities for the United States, it would be well advised to view Central Asia and the South Caucasus (the core subregions of what this journal’s Editorial Statement calls the “Silk Road region” and what is commonly still called “Eurasia” in some circles) as areas where a creative, new approach would yield lasting strategic gains—both for America and those states themselves. To be sure, this region is not and will not become a major priority or a vital interest for the United States—nor is that necessary. But its importance in world politics as an area of strategic competition among many rival states, including Russia and China and several aspirant and rising middle powers, is increasing. Therefore, it should be understood to be beneficial for all the states in Central Asia and the South Caucasus that Washington both enhance and sustain at a higher level its comprehensive, multi-dimensional engagement with them because only America can provide or convene many of the public goods they need.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Donald Trump, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
Central Asia, South Caucasus, and United States of America

486. A Transforming Eurasian Order

Author:
Feng Yujun
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
I n recent years, driven by multiple factors, the international order has been undergoing rapid adjustment, evolution, and reshaping. In Eurasia, the Russia-Ukraine war has triggered persisting upheaval, acting as a pivotal catalyst for shifts in the regional order. Its impact has prompted historic changes in power dynamics, mutual perceptions, national identities, and strategic orientations among Eurasian states—shifts unmatched since the Soviet Union’s dissolution over three decades ago. These transformations are set to profoundly influence the regional order, becoming a central element in current and future global developments.
Topic:
Post-Soviet Space, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia and Eurasia

487. The New Geopolitical Scramble for Corridors

Author:
Velina Tchakarova
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
The geopolitical landscape in winter 2024- 2025 is marked by significant transformation, uncertainty, and fierce competition for influence. The geopolitical hotspots of this new contest are most visible in the regions that bridge Europe and Asia—what the editors of Baku Dialogues call the “Silk Road region.” Central to this dynamic is the growing intersection of interests between major regional players against the backdrop of a Cold War 2.0, putting the West against what I was the first to call the “DragonBear” alliance of China and Russia. These corridors are not just infrastructural undertakings; they are the arteries of global power, trade, and connectivity, reflecting deeper geopolitical ambitions and contestations. This extensive analysis elaborates on today’s most significant connectivity projects, exploring their strategic implications and the new power dynamics they are fostering. In the traditional sense, empires have always relied on transport and trade corridors to project power and expand influence. From the ancient Silk Roads to the West’s colonial sea routes, the ability to control the flow of goods and resources has often equated to geopolitical dominance. Today, this principle remains unchanged, though the scale and stakes have reached unprecedented levels.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Trade, and International Competition
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Central Asia, and Asia

488. Back to the Future: The Rise of Militarization in China in the 2020s

Author:
Tai Ming Cheung
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:
In this policy brief, IGCC director Tai Ming Cheung analyzes Chinese militarization efforts as the country seeks tighter integration of the civilian and defense economies and a strong sense of national security, and whether such efforts lead to China being more prone to going to war in the near future.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, Economy, and Militarization
Political Geography:
China and Asia

489. (Digital) cash transfers, privacy and women’s empowerment: Evidence from Uganda

Author:
Greco Giulia, Gulesci Selim, Prabhakar Pallavi, and Sulaiman Munshi
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
Abstract:
This study reports findings from a randomized controlled trial in Uganda that provided unconditional cash transfers to married women, varying the payment method (cash or mobile money) and whether spouses were informed. Results show that mobile money transfers significantly enhance women’s economic independence and decision-making power, as reflected in increased personal labor income and greater say in household decisions. In contrast, cash transfers are more effective in reducing intimate partner violence (IPV), especially when both spouses are informed about the transfer. These findings reveal a critical trade-off: while digital payments promote women’s financial control, they may be less effective in addressing IPV. The study underscores the importance of considering both economic empowerment and safety outcomes when designing transfer programs for women.
Topic:
Economics, Women, Privacy, Empowerment, and Cash Transfers
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

490. Adapting and Validating WEE Indicators in an Experimental Study of Savings

Author:
Anahit Tevosyan, Scott Graham, and Joeri Smiths
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
Abstract:
Traditional indicators of Women’s Economic Empowerment (WEE) are often too broad to effectively measure specific behavioral outcomes like women’s savings behavior (WSB). This study addresses that gap by identifying contextually relevant WEE indicators that closely align with savings behavior, using data from 1,498 FINCA Uganda women savers. It employs a two-step validation approach. First, qualitative methods such as focus groups and cognitive interviews establish a set of WEE indicators tailored to the local context. Then, machine learning models test how well these indicators predict actual savings behavior. The study links women’s self-perceived empowerment with real financial actions—setting savings goals, making deposits, and using funds purposefully. Further validation comes from a subsample exposed to a low-cost coaching intervention, which strengthens the WEE-WSB relationship and reveals which empowerment factors make coaching more or less effective. Notably, the research highlights often-overlooked domains such as external social influence and the complexity of decision-making burdens. This work offers a more targeted, behavior-linked approach to measuring WEE, with potential to improve the design and evaluation of development programs across varied contexts.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Women, Empowerment, and Savings
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

491. The Primacy of Politics at the Local Level in UN Peace Operations

Author:
Allard Duursma and Jenna Russo
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
The “primacy of politics” has become a central tenet of UN peacekeeping. This reflects a broad recognition that peacekeeping operations should be deployed in support of a political solution to conflict. In practice, however, the primacy of politics is often narrowly understood as referring to formal, national-level political processes. This overlooks the fact that politics also happens at the local level, both formally and informally. It is critical for UN peace operations to address these local-level politics. Local-level conflicts account for a large share of conflict-related deaths in peacekeeping contexts. They are also closely tied to national-level peace efforts. This has led UN peace operations to become increasingly involved in supporting local peace processes. This report examines how the primacy of politics applies to the local level in UN peacekeeping settings. It highlights the indispensable role of civil affairs components in fostering sustainable peace. When effectively integrated into broader mission strategies, the localized approaches of civil affairs personnel not only address immediate conflict drivers but also contribute to the durability of national-level agreements. These efforts demonstrate that the success of peacekeeping operations hinges on balancing top-down mandates with grassroots engagement, underscoring the interconnectedness of local and national dynamics. The paper concludes with recommendations to strengthen local political engagement in peace operations: Member states should adopt a definition of the primacy of politics that encompasses both formal and informal processes at both the national and subnational levels. The Security Council should also continue incorporating tasks related to local political processes in mission mandates, and the General Assembly should adequately resource these mandates. Mission leaders should craft political strategies that are both top-down and bottom-up. This requires consulting regularly with field offices and reflecting local dynamics in national-level political efforts. They should also ensure coordination between mission components, including civil-military coordination. Civil affairs personnel should systematically map stakeholders at the national and subnational levels to understand how they fit together. They should also map the political economy of local conflicts and form partnerships to target the drivers of these conflicts.
Topic:
Politics, United Nations, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Global Focus

492. The United Nations–African Union Partnership and the Protection of Civilians

Author:
Andrew E. Yaw Tchie and Lauren McGowan
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
The landscape of peace operations in Africa has transformed over the past decade, including a marked increase in African-led peace support operations (PSOs). Since the early 2000s, the African Union (AU) and UN have evolved distinct, albeit parallel, conceptual and operational approaches to the protection of civilians (POC). While the UN views POC in peacekeeping as a whole-of-mission objective, with military, police, and civilian components prioritizing POC and proactively protecting civilians, the AU views itself as contributing to the protection of civilians primarily by neutralizing armed groups and establishing a protective environment. These differences raise important questions about how POC will be upheld in the context of the UN-AU partnership. This report examines the operational differences between UN and AU approaches to POC, assessing their respective advantages and limitations. It highlights how African-led PSOs tend to be more able and willing to use force to respond to outbreaks of violence and to contain aggressors but have less sustainable and flexible financing than UN peacekeeping operations. Meanwhile, UN peacekeeping missions with POC mandates have more robust civilian and police components but may lack rapid response capabilities. To strengthen their partnership on POC, the two organizations should leverage their comparative advantages, acknowledge their respective limitations, and work toward an approach to POC that is tailored to each context. Based on the findings in this report, the following recommendations are made: Understandings of POC: The UN Department of Peace Operations (DPO) and AU Peace Support Operations Division (PSOD) should continue to facilitate understanding of their comparative advantages and challenges on POC. POC should be a central focus of efforts to implement the 2017 Joint Framework for Enhanced Partnership in Peace and Security. UN DPO and AU PSOD should share lessons learned and strengthen each other’s capacity. The AU compliance team should continue to support regional economic communities in adhering to AU POC policies. Structures on POC: The UN and AU should establish a joint lessons-learned mechanism within the UN Office to the AU to systematically assess joint UN-AU missions and African-led operations. UN DPO and AU PSOD should develop and implement a joint protection strategy when engaged in partnered operations. UN DPO and AU PSOD should conduct a thorough joint POC assessment prior to any partnered deployments. The AU Peace and Security Council and UN Security Council should engage in regular consultations on peace support operations, including on mandates.
Topic:
United Nations, Peacekeeping, Civilians, African Union, Protection, and Regional Organizations
Political Geography:
Africa

493. UN Peace Operations and Unconstitutional Changes of Government

Author:
Albert Trithart and Bitania Tadesse
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
There has been a significant increase in the number of unconstitutional changes of government (UCGs) since 2020. This presents a challenge for the United Nations, which has a presence in all countries that have recently experienced UCGs. In places like Afghanistan, Mali, and Sudan, it has also presented particular challenges to UN peace operations, which face the task of continuing to carry out their work amid a political crisis and using their good offices to facilitate a peaceful return to constitutional order. The report examines lessons from the experiences of the UN missions in Afghanistan (UNAMA), Mali (MINUSMA), and Sudan (UNITAMS) following recent UCGs. It provides a brief overview of recent trends in UCGs and how the responses of member states and international and regional organizations have impacted the responses of UN peace operations. It then analyzes how these UN peace operations approached political engagement with the de facto authorities. It concludes with several lessons: A principled approach at the highest levels of the UN: While some UCGs may bring to power leaders with greater political will to engage with the UN, they are almost always an indicator of growing political instability. The UN secretary-general, along with the African Union (AU) and other regional organizations, should thus continue adopting a principled approach to condemning UCGs. A pragmatic approach for UN peace operations: While the UN should take a principled approach to UCGs at the headquarters level, UN peace operations are well-positioned to take a more pragmatic approach to engaging with de facto authorities. They should take advantage of any openness displayed by the authorities to engage despite fears that doing so might legitimize them. Planning for UCGs and reviewing political strategies: Even if the UN is unable to prevent UCGs, it can better prepare for managing relationships with transitional authorities. It is therefore important to consider such scenarios in mission planning for potential and current operations and to conduct strategic assessments as soon as possible following UCGs to consider how to adapt and potentially identify a new direction for engagement. The challenge of remaining impartial: Fears of “legitimizing” de facto authorities stem from the assumption that those authorities are inherently illegitimate. Yet not all elected authorities have popular legitimacy, and not all authorities who come to power unconstitutionally lack it. UN missions thus need to factor public opinion into how they respond on the ground. The need for a “One UN” response: While there is unlikely to be a “one-size-fits-all” approach to engagement with de facto authorities across the entire UN presence in a country, coordination is needed to ensure UN personnel have a common understanding of core principles of engagement and a coherent approach to communication. The limits of UN engagement: Ultimately, the ability of UN missions to shape political transitions following UCGs tends to be constrained by factors outside their control. Regional organizations like the AU and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) tend to adopt a more principled response, raising questions about the extent to which UN missions should seek to link their engagement to that of these organizations. Missions also face competing pressures from member states supporting different political factions.
Topic:
Government, United Nations, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Sudan, Mali, and Global Focus

494. Minilateral Mechanisms for Peacemaking in a Multipolar World: Friends, Contact Groups, Troikas, Quads, and Quints

Author:
Teresa Whitfield
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
Informal “minilateral” coalitions of the willing and interested have long been a feature of peacemaking. Groups of states identified as “friends” of the mediator or a particular peace process and contact groups bringing together interested powers date back to concert diplomacy traditions and proliferated at the end of the Cold War as conflict resolution activity surged. The incidence of such informal mechanisms grew exponentially between 1990 and 2009. This report assesses how these mechanisms have evolved in the years since 2010 and investigates their place in parallel to the UN’s efforts to mediate internationalized internal conflicts in Libya, Syria, and Yemen; peace processes in the Philippines, Colombia, and Mozambique taking place in relatively benign regional settings, as well as the anomalous case of Venezuela, where efforts toward a peaceful resolution of the political crisis were mired in international divisions; the geopolitically contested contexts of Myanmar and Afghanistan; and the democratic transition and descent into war in Sudan. The report concludes that groups have the potential to build internal coherence among their members, as well as to elevate public messaging and facilitate information sharing, but they can also become a forum for competition between their members. In this context, the report offers lessons to help those considering whether a group is appropriate. The “right” group structure will depend on the context, and the adage of “form follows function” is critically important. It is key to set realistic expectations and, in some cases, accept that the “right” structure will be no group at all. Successful groups and partnerships all point to the importance of skilled individual mediators committed to working with each other, whether within a group or without an established mechanism. Finally, some contexts may defy attempts to design or deliver a coherent international peace architecture. In these cases, more modest goals related to specific or localized gains and incremental support to conflict parties and other affected communities should be pursued.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, and Peacemaking
Political Geography:
Global Focus

495. Infrastructure Grids and Networks. The Challenges Ahead, amid Security and Efficiency

Author:
Carlo Secchi and Alessandro Gili
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
In recent years, accelerating geopolitical tensions, economic disruptions, and climate-related disasters have elevated resilience and economic security to the forefront of both global and European policy agendas. In response, strategies such as de-risking have driven substantial investments in redundancy, new trade corridors, and expanded infrastructure – including railway lines, highways, ports, electricity grids, pipelines, and undersea digital cables. This infrastructure forms the backbone of the global economy. It is not only crucial for maintaining competitiveness and supporting growth but also plays a central role in enabling the energy and digital transitions. As such, protecting these systems from hostile actions or third-party interference has become an urgent priority. At the same time, the long-standing trade-off between efficiency and security has grown more pronounced amid increasingly strained international relations. Both governments and private sector actors are now more willing to absorb higher costs in order to enhance the resilience of supply chains and connectivity networks. Against this backdrop, a new paradigm is emerging - one that raises two critical questions: Where will the balance ultimately settle between economic efficiency and security/resilience? And what investment priorities will shape the future of transport, energy, and digital connectivity infrastructure?
Topic:
Security, Infrastructure, Economy, Energy, and Digital Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

496. Lonely in the Crowd: Plugged or Remote?

Author:
Tobia Zevi
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
The Covid-19 pandemic forced cities to shut down and citizens to stay home, disrupting economic activity and social life. The crisis pushed companies to adopt remote work, transforming it from a niche practice to a widespread norm, altering the balance between work and personal life. This shift created inequalities across sectors and influenced the ability of "global cities" to attract talent in a globalized labor market. Now, as the pandemic has receded, many companies are reversing course. This Report explores how remote work has impacted cities and citizens, from mobility to urban planning. How can remote work reshape global cities? What strategies are available to local authorities? Is remote work still the future?
Topic:
Cities, COVID-19, Labor Market, Digitalization, and Remote Work
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

497. Friends and Foes in the Indo-Pacific: Multilateralism Out, Minilateralism In?

Author:
Axel Berkofsky and Guido Alberto Casanova
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
Minilateralism is already among us, and it is here to stay. The well-known shortcomings of the multilateral system of governance are pushing individual states in the Indo-Pacific to come up with new and different solutions to deal with the security and prosperity issues that current institutions are unable to tackle. Amid growing geopolitical rivalries and the uncertainty provoked by the re-election of Donald Trump, this report aims to shed some clarity on an emerging trend that is already affecting the foreign policy of great powers in a region that is central to global affairs.
Topic:
Security, Alliance, Multilateralism, Institutions, and Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, Japan, India, Asia, North Korea, Philippines, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

498. Are bad governments a threat to sovereign defaults? The effects of political risk on debt sustainability

Author:
Samantha Ajovalasit, Andrea Consiglio, Giovanni Pagliardi, and Stavros Zenios
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Political risk is a significant determinant of bond yields and economic growth in both developed and emerging markets and we develop a debt sustainability analysis model with both channels using a country ratings proxy of political risk. Political risk also affects a sovereign’s willingness to pay and it can render debt unsustainable, triggered by changes in the rating level, volatility or both. Conversely, sustainability can be restored through reforms that can be as effective as large-scale quantitative easing programmes. The political effects on debt are especially large for high-debt countries during periods of high interest rates, and have an impact on debt management through the choice of optimal financing maturities.
Topic:
Governance, European Union, Macroeconomics, Sustainability, Public Debt, and Sovereign Debt
Political Geography:
Europe

499. Gender diversity and economic growth

Author:
Jonathan Ostry
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Most macroeconomic and growth accounting models assume that male and female workers are perfectly substitutable in the aggregate production function. Whether this assumption is valid is an empirical question that this paper aims to answer by estimating the elasticity of substitution between female and male labour. We apply linear and non-linear techniques to firm-level data, cross-country sectoral data and cross-country aggregate data. We find that women and men are far from being perfect substitutes in production, a result that is consistent with much microeconomic evidence, but has not permeated to macroeconomics. The failure to account for imperfect gender substitutability has far-reaching implications. In particular, standard growth accounting exercises are likely to attribute to technological progress gains that are more properly attributable to the impact of greater gender inclusiveness in the labour force over time. Put differently, the gains from gender inclusiveness are likely to be much larger than standard economic models estimate.
Topic:
Governance, Women, Employment, Inequality, Economic Growth, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Global Focus

500. Dilemmas for the EU in deficit-financing of defence expenditure and maintenance of fiscal discipline

Author:
Lucio Pench
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
The European Union is grappling with the challenge of increasing defence expenditure while maintaining fiscal discipline under the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). The European Commission has proposed activating the national escape clause available under the SGP to accommodate defence spending without triggering the excessive deficit procedure (EDP). However, the scope and enforcement of this measure remain uncertain. A proposed 1.5 percent of GDP cap on extra fiscal flexibility is legally questionable and unlikely to be enforced. While low-debt countries do not require the clause due to existing flexibility, highly indebted nations may find it insufficient in the face of rising debt costs. The escape clause may also serve as a backdoor for European Central Bank interventions under the Transmission Protection Instrument, which requires compliance with EU fiscal rules. The Commission has also proposed the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) funding mechanism, a €150 billion loan programme to finance national defence investments. SAFE relies on national borrowing and follows the model of the SURE (Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency) facility, put in place during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, SAFE’s limited scale and dependence on national fiscal capacities mean it falls short of the collective security funding approach advocated by economists. Meanwhile, Germany’s decision to reform its constitutional debt brake marks a major departure from its traditional fiscal policies. The reform establishes a permanent ‘defence golden rule’, exempting military spending from borrowing limits, alongside a €10 trillion infrastructure fund. Although this move does not endanger Germany’s fiscal sustainability, it undermines EU-wide fiscal coordination and conflicts with the SGP. This could weaken the European Central Bank’s position in future market interventions. Given these challenges, discussions on a new EU fiscal framework are necessary to ensure fiscal flexibility while maintaining debt sustainability.
Topic:
Security, Budget, European Union, Fiscal Policy, and Defense Spending
Political Geography:
Europe