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21. Redefining US strategy with Latin America and the Caribbean for a new era

Author:
Jason Marczak, Maria Fernanda Bozmoski, and Matthew Kroenig
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The strategic interest of the United States and the countries of Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) lies in strengthening their western hemisphere partnership. Shared borders, economic interests, and security alliances bind these nations, along with a common goal for prosperity. However, the perception of waning US interest and the rise of external influences necessitate the rejuvenation of and renewed focus on this partnership. In May 2023, the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center and the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security established the US-LAC Future Strategy Working Group to redefine the US-LAC partnership. This strategy promotes mutual and inclusive economic growth, renewed cooperation through enhanced commercial and investment ties, a renewed paradigm on bolstering security and reducing migration flows across the region, and a focus on preparedness in the face of natural disasters and the energy transition. Acting on this strategy could significantly benefit US economic and security interests. The United States should capitalize on immediate opportunities, like promoting nearshoring as a means to growth and prosperity across the Americas, while maintaining a medium-term strategy tailored to each country’s specific needs. This strategy paper highlights the importance of adaptability and practicality, particularly as the global economic landscape evolves and power shifts foresee new leading economies by mid-century. In addition, the strategy advocates for the significance of the US-LAC relationship amid the recalibration of US worldwide interests.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Migration, Politics, Economy, and Energy
Political Geography:
Latin America, Caribbean, and United States of America

22. On the Role of Local Government in Promoting Peace and Political-Environmental Sustainability

Author:
Kim Noach
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
The paper discusses the rising power of local government and its ability to independently create and/or advance foreign relations in order to promote peace and good neighborly relations. One of the prominent areas in which local government engages and cooperates with others today is the environmental and climate field, notably in light of the foot-dragging of nation-states around these issues. Given this reality, the paper examines whether relationships and cooperation on the environment might be built between local authorities when their respective nation-states maintain no relations or only cold ones, or are in ongoing conflict. The paper analyses three theoretical axes: 1) the rising political power of local authorities vis-à-vis their nation-states, and as significant actors in global diplomacy; 2) growing local involvement with environmental problems; and 3) the promotion of environmental peacebuilding. The paper analyses the feasibility of joining these axes, and gives relevant examples, focussing on the Israeli-Palestinian-Jordanian space. The main argument arising from the analysis is that local government has the tools and the effective opportunity to advance environmental cooperation as a stimulus to making peace; and further, that processes of this sort are particularly important when there is no political horizon. While Israel and its region are indeed the focus of this paper’s examination of local government and its potential for building relationships, the general insights derived are applicable to other regions of conflict.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Politics, Peace, Sustainability, and Local Government
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Jordan

23. The Sky Is Not the Limit. Geopolitics and Economics of the New Space Race

Author:
Alessandro Gili
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
Space is a contested domain for its very nature and today it is evidently becoming an increasingly important enabler of economic and military power. An increasing number of actors, infrastructures and technologies deployed in space also raises concerns for safety and security, especially in cyberspace. Many countries are striving to achieve space capabilities and autonomous access to space, and this is having a tremendous geopolitical impact, especially since space is emerging as an increasingly critical military and strategic domain. The development of the new space economy, which is increasingly involving the private sector and many industrial actors and services, will also be a game changer for the international economy. The space race likewise implies disruptive technologies that could contribute massively to the energy and digital transitions, accelerating solutions that could benefit humanity. A new international governance system for space is therefore needed urgently, considering that the current rules are no longer able to respond to a sector evolving at such a rapid pace. Which actors are leading the race? Which economic sectors could benefit the most and what could the new space economy mean for the world? How is space emerging as a military domain against a backdrop of increasing international tensions? What would a new system of global governance for space look like?
Topic:
Economics, Politics, Infrastructure, Geopolitics, Regulation, and Energy Security
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, India, Italy, Global Focus, United States of America, and Space

24. The Diversity of Ethnic Minority Londoners

Author:
Farah Hussain
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
What do ethnic minority Londoners actually think about politics, society, racism in the UK, and life in the Capital? Much has been written about the difficulty of accurately polling ethnic minority voters in the UK. Given the Mile End Institute is situated in one of the most diverse boroughs in the country, we were determined to overcome these difficulties to find out what ethnic minority Londoners actually think about politics, society, racism, and life in the Capital.
Topic:
Politics, Public Opinion, Minorities, Ethnicity, Diversity, Society, and Racism
Political Geography:
Britain, United Kingdom, and London

25. Conservatism and the Climate Crisis

Author:
Sam Hall, Pilita Clark, Rachel Coxcoon, and Robert Saunders
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
he climate crisis poses new challenges to all parties and traditions, and will require the intellectual resources of both right and left to meet it effectively. In this event in May 2024, the Mile End Institute brought together Sam Hall (Director of the Conservative Environment Network), Pilita Clark (leading environmental journalist), Rachel Coxcoon (Director of ClimateGuide) and Dr Robert Saunders to explore what Conservatism can contribute to the climate debate. They explored the Conservative Party's record in government, the place of the environment in the Conservative tradition, and the challenges facing Conservative environmentalists at a time of growing political polarisation.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Politics, Conservatism, Crisis Management, and Polarization
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

26. Remembering John Smith: His Legacy and Lessons

Author:
Robert Saunders, David Ward, Richard Johnson, and Dame Pauline Green
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
The night before John Smith QC died in May 1994, he spoke at the Park Lane Hotel to raise money for the Labour Party's campaign for the next general election. To the 500 people in attendance, Smith remarked that 'the opportunity to serve our country—that is all we ask'. 30 years on from his death, Smith is often recalled as one of the 'best Prime Ministers we never had' and is still viewed with affection by many people regardless of their political views. However, in his own party, John Smith's legacy has often been more contentious. For supporters of the 'New Labour' project pursued by his successor, John Smith - as David Miliband told the Mile End Institute in May 2022 - failed to 'understand that in 1992 the electorate told us, in no uncertain terms, that they wanted a different offer from Labour'. On Thursday 9 May 2024, the Mile End Institute marked the 30th anniversary of John Smith's death by inviting a distinguished panel of historians and eyewitnesses to consider John Smith's legacy and lessons for the Labour Party today. Chaired by Dr Robert Saunders, it featured David Ward (John Smith's Head of Policy and Adviser from 1988 to 1994), Dr Richard Johnson (Senior Lecturer at QMUL), and Dame Pauline Green (former Chair of the Party of European Socialists).
Topic:
Politics, History, Labour Party, and John Smith
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

27. Indonesia’s Democracy and the 2024 Elections: Navigating a Crucial Moment

Author:
Aisah Putri Budiatri
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
With voting day now concluded, preliminary results and quick counts indicate a convergence in the outcomes of both the presidential and legislative elections. The Prabowo-Gibran ticket secured victory in the presidential race, prevailing over contenders Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar and Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD. Projections suggest that Prabowo-Gibran garnered a vote share of 56-59%, surpassing Anies-Muhaimin’s anticipated vote share of approximately 24-26% and Ganjar-Mahfud’s expected vote share of around 15-17% (Ira 2024). Meanwhile, quick count findings for the legislative elections suggest that eight political parties will secure seats in the national parliament: PDI-P (16.4%), Golkar Party (14.6%), Gerindra Party (13.5%), PKB (10.7%), Nasdem Party (9.9%), PKS (8.4%), Demokrat Party (7.6%), and PAN (7.1%). Notably, despite losing the presidential race, PDI-P emerged as the top vote-getter in the legislative elections, signaling an intriguing divergence in electoral outcomes (Farisa 2024). While awaiting the official election results from the General Elections Commission (KPU), preliminary projections suggest that incumbent President Joko Widodo (Jokowi)’s successor will emerge victorious in the 2024 election. Prabowo-Gibran, positioned as Jokowi’s successor not only due to Gibran’s familial relationship as Jokowi’s son but also because of their campaign emphasis on Jokowi’s continuity, has secured a resounding victory. Additionally, the combined party support for Prabowo-Gibran exceeds 40% in national parliament electoral results, surpassing both the Anies-Muhaimin’s party coalition, including Nasdem Party, PKB, and PKS, at 29% and the Ganjar-Mahfud’s party support at 16.4%. These outcomes raise concerns regarding the potential perpetuation of democratic regression under the political stewardship of Jokowi’s successor, a trend that several research findings suggest began during the Jokowi administration (Power and Warburton 2020).
Topic:
Civil Society, Politics, Elections, Opposition, and State Engagement
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

28. The abuse of a motion of no confidence in Lesotho: Triggers and impact

Author:
Mokete Pherudi
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
The article notes that the motion of no confidence in the Prime Minister (PM) in Lesotho is provided for in the Constitution, but different political leaders have abused it on several occasions for various party political and subjective reasons. This article, therefore, explores the abuse of this provision, its triggers, and how they have impacted the political stability and socioeconomic situation in the country. Lesotho is a constitutional democracy governed by a constitution adopted in 1993. One of the provisions of this Constitution is Section 87,1 which deals with a ‘motion of no confidence’. Constitutionally, the government must, at all times, enjoy the confidence of the National Assembly, and Section 87(2) of the Constitution embodies the principle that: The King shall appoint as Prime Minister the member of the National Assembly who appears to the Council of State to be the leader of the political party or coalition of political parties that will command the support of a majority of the members of the National Assembly.2 Similarly, the Constitution gives Parliament the power to withdraw confidence from the government of the day. The passing of the motion of no confidence requires a simple majority, and any member of Parliament can propose it.3 The only precondition for a motion of no confidence in government is the name of a member of the National Assembly for the King to appoint in place of the PM.4
Topic:
Politics, Governance, Constitution, and Parliament
Political Geography:
Africa and Lesotho

29. Gender-responsive development

Author:
Karmen Tornius and Lars Engberg-Pedersen
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
In addition to national gender policies, African governments and non-state actors engage with the African Union and United Nations to negotiate and draft international agreements on gender equality issues. This DIIS Working Paper explores the priorities, contestations and gaps in the African Union’s gender governance; the status of and priorities in gender-responsive governance at country level; and African priorities in global gender policy spaces. This study discusses those linkages between different levels while focusing on nine countries: Burkina Faso, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Somalia, South Africa, South Sudan and Uganda. Taking Danish development co-operation priorities as a point of departure, these countries provide perspectives from very diverse economic and security contexts.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Diplomacy, International Organization, Politics, African Union, Peacebuilding, and Gender
Political Geography:
Europe and Denmark

30. Essential concepts must be contested

Author:
Felix Berenskötter and Stefano Guzzini
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
In this forthcoming chapter for the newest Handbook of International Relations, edited by Cameron Thies, and to appear with Edwards Elgar Publ., Felix Berenskötter and Stefano Guzzini provide a methodology for how to use concept analysis for theoretical and political critique. 'Contested essential concepts' discusses the nature of concepts and of different forms of theoretical contestation, namely (1) contesting often tacit assumptions in political and normative theorizations, (2) contextualizing (and 'provincializing') the formulation of ideal-types in empirical theorizations, and (3) problematizing the use of concepts in political practice. The paper concludes by showing that meaningful contestation requires a capacity of translation.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, and International Relations Theory
Political Geography:
Global Focus

31. Analyzing the repercussions of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger's withdrawal from ECOWAS

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
On January 28, 2024, Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso declared their immediate withdrawal from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in response to the stringent economic sanctions levied by the 15-member regional bloc following recent military coups. This move has sparked widespread speculation regarding its impact on the ECOWAS’ function, as well as the security and political landscape in the Sahel and West Africa.
Topic:
Politics, Sanctions, Regional Security, and ECOWAS
Political Geography:
Africa, Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso

32. Exchange on Nick Onuf’s ‘Metaphoricizing Modernity,’ Part I—Dangerous Beginnings, Peripheral (Re)Beginnings: A Reconfiguration of Nick Onuf’s Constructivism

Author:
Victor Coutinho Lage
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contexto Internacional
Institution:
Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:
Nick Onuf’s constructivism is one of the most important contributions to the field of international relations in what regards the interchange between social and political theories, and philosophy. In this text, I engage with Onuf’s body of work taken as a whole. The guiding thread of the problematization I propose is woven through the attention to how Onuf’s craft and creative undertaking sets certain beginnings in the construction of his framework, and how setting them has important implications for (the conception of) ‘politics’. I would argue that Onuf’s conception of politics is sustained on two central beginnings: the conception of humans as ‘rational agents’ and the framing of what has come to be called ‘modernity’. This way, I emphasize what seems to me the most enduring contribution his body of work can provide not only to the field of international relations, but also to contemporary social and political theories more generally. The first section outlines the relation Onuf establishes between rules and rule, while the following two sections deal, in turn, with his conceptions of ‘agency’ and the ‘modern world’. My goal in these first three sections is to reconfigure Onuf’s constructivism. The fourth and final section moves ahead, giving a step further – perhaps too far, perhaps too radical –, paving a critical engagement with his work through peripheral (re)begininngs.
Topic:
Politics, Constructivism, Rationality, Modernity, and Periphery
Political Geography:
Global Focus

33. Unequal Burdens: Corruption’s Impacts on People with Intersectional Identities in Lebanon

Author:
Elizabeth Reiter Dettmer and Jay Feghali
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:
Lebanon, once celebrated for its cultural vibrancy and economic prosperity, now grapples with embedded corruption and dire prospects for reform. Lebanon’s multiple layers of social, confessional, ideological, economic, and cultural identities are governed by varied laws or rules. This creates space for corruption to combine with discriminatory practices. This assessment, Unequal Burdens: Corruption's Impacts on People with Intersectional Identities in Lebanon, focuses on corruption and its effects to measure how perceptions and experiences differ among marginalized groups and to identify any unique effects that people with intersectional identities encounter, with a focus on perspectives from outside Beirut, including Tripoli, Akkar, Baalbek, Bekaa, and surrounding areas. In 2020, IFES conducted an intersectionality assessment, Identity, and Politics in Lebanon, which found that marginalized groups in Lebanon experience multiple levels of exclusion based on social identities, including gender, disability, age, religion, sexual orientation, and refugee status. Individuals with intersectional identities are even more significantly impacted by the complexity and inherent inequality of Lebanon’s political and social systems. Lebanon has 18 officially recognized religious sects that are governed by 15 personal status laws enforced by religious courts. Social identity and the role of religion in politics both contribute to conflict and lack of consensus. These are compounded by socio-economic factors, including an imbalance in access to services – especially outside the capital, low exposure to economic and educational opportunities, limited inclusion in public service, and youth unemployment. Legal obstacles created by personal status laws and the discriminatory application of other laws seriously hinder the ability of marginalized groups to act as full and equal citizens. In early 2020, the Lebanese government introduced a new anti-corruption law and began work on a new National Anti-Corruption Strategy. Despite the new laws, Transparency International’s 2022 Corruption Perceptions Index placed Lebanon 150th of 180 countries, a decline from its rank of 128th in 2012. IFES’ assessment found that corruption is disproportionately impacting people from marginalized groups. Research identified the following key findings: Corruption on the Community Level; Corruption on the Individual Level; Impact of Corruption and Discrimination on Marginalized Groups; Impacts of Corruption on Civic Participation; Corruption as a Facilitating Factor for Participation in Public Life; Corruption as a Hindering Factor for Participation in Public Life.
Topic:
Corruption, Politics, Reform, and Intersectionality
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

34. Mitigating the Political Cost of Financial Crisis with Blame Avoidance Discourse: The Case of Turkey

Author:
Büşra Söylemez-karakoç
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
How do centralized governments mitigate the political cost of severe financial crises? The economic voting scholarship has established that the clarity of responsibility, i.e., government accountability for economic conditions to the mass public, is a necessity for electoral reward or punishment for economic performance. On the one hand, political centralization, which reduces the number of veto players, may increase the visibility of the role of the executive in policy success or failure. On the other hand, it allows an uncontested blame avoidance discourse, especially when accompanied with democratic backsliding. Furthermore, the recent backlash against globalization has enabled blame shifting to international actors in many countries. Against this theoretical framework, we comparatively analyze the responsibility attribution discourses for the 1994, 2001, and 2018-2022 financial crises in the statements of incumbent presidents, ministers, and parliament members of Turkey. We find that while blame avoidance discursive strategies have been attempted in all three cases, the responsibility attribution for the 1994 and 2001 crises mostly targeted the executive. In contrast, for the ongoing crisis, the responsibility discourse is dominated with blaming international political economy factors, creating ambiguity, and targeting domestic non-governmental actors.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Politics, Financial Crisis, Voting, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

35. The Socio-Economic Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Syrian Refugees in Turkey

Author:
Fulya Memişoğlu, Altan Özkil, and Tuna Kılınç
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
Building upon empirical research, this study examines the socio-economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on Syrian refugees in Turkey by analyzing its implications on employment, livelihood opportunities, and social cohesion. More specifically, it focuses on the experiences of Syrian refugees to examine the ways in which they exert their agency to cope with the structural constraints when faced with ‘multiple crises’ in host countries, intersecting with the dynamics of a ‘normalized refugee crisis’. Our findings from fieldwork conducted in the top six refugee-hosting cities reveal that loss of jobs, limited access to decent work, increased dependency on external financial assistance, and social exclusion have been some of the most acute effects of the pandemic on refugees. Meanwhile, the perceived effects that refugees have on the host community’s welfare trigger problems that impede social cohesion. All in all, the study intends to highlight the far-reaching effects of the pandemic beyond its direct health implications by addressing the structural vulnerability of refugees and the importance of providing an enabling environment for socio-economic self-reliance.
Topic:
Migration, Politics, Refugees, Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

36. The Open Gap in the “Free and Open” Indo-Pacific

Author:
Kenneth Gofigan Kuper
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
"For many of us in Guam, a free and open Indo-Pacific cannot be fully accomplished without resolving the paradox of the United States maintaining a modern-day colony even though the local government has supported moving forward with a decolonization process."
Topic:
Politics, Decolonization, Strategy, and Colonization
Political Geography:
China, United States of America, Indo-Pacific, and Guam

37. Enhancing Military Diplomacy in the Indo-Pacific: A US Foreign Area Officer’s Perspective

Author:
Matthew House
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Lt. Col. Matthew House, US Army Foreign Area Officer and EWC Adjunct Fellow, underscores “the pivotal role of military diplomacy in orchestrating significant global events...” and highlights “the invaluable expertise of [Foreign Area Officers] in managing complex international relations."
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Education, Politics, and Military Diplomacy
Political Geography:
North Korea, Vietnam, Southeast Asia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

38. South Korean Perspectives on China-Russia Collaboration in the Arctic

Author:
Young Kil Park
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Young Kil Park, Research Fellow at Korea Maritime Institute, explains that "While the immediate impact of China-Russia collaboration in the Arctic on South Korea is limited, it remains wary of the long-term implications for its economic and security interests."
Topic:
Security, Economics, Politics, Bilateral Relations, and Collaboration
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Arctic

39. Race Politics and Colonial Legacies: France, Africa and the Middle East

Author:
Hisham Aïdi, Marc Lynch, Zachariah Mampilly, Baba Adou, and Oumar Ba
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
In February 2020 – the eve of the COVID-19 pandemic – the Project on Middle East Political Science held a preliminary meeting at Columbia University in New York to explore the origins of the Africa-Middle East divides that treat North Africa as part of the Middle East and neglect states such as Sudan and Mauritania. Columbia was an appropriate place to begin such a dialogue. Two decades ago, when two of us (Aidi and Mampilly) were graduate students at Columbia, the Institute of African Studies was in serious crisis. The Ugandan political theorist Mahmood Mamdani arrived and launched an initiative to decolonize the study of Africa to counter Hegel’s partition of Africa by transcending the Saharan and red Sea divides, and by underscoring Africa’s links to Arabia, Asia and the New World. To that end, we co-organized a second conference on racial formations in Africa and the Middle East looking at race-making across these two regions comparatively, including the border zones often left out of both African and Middle Eastern Studies: the Sudans, Amazigh-speaking areas in the Sahel, Arabic speaking areas on the Swahili coast and Zanzibar. This workshop represents the third in our series of transregional studies across the Africa-Middle East divide.
Topic:
Politics, Post Colonialism, Race, History, Colonialism, Islamophobia, and Racialization
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, Europe, Sudan, Middle East, France, Libya, Lebanon, Syria, Tunisia, Mauritania, and United States of America

40. Washington's and Taiwan's Diverging Interests Doesn't Make War Imminent

Author:
Hargisl Shirley Martey
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
We are a month from the Taiwan 2024 election that sent shockwaves around the world. President-elect, Lai Ching-te (賴清德), dared to utter the world ‘independence” in a strike against the longstanding One China Policy (一个中国政策) in his successful campaign to lead the nation. The election was important enough for an increasingly assertive President Xi Jinping (习近平出席) to try (and fail) to influence the election’s outcome. Xi has been rattling cages for the last several years and has made no secret of his desire to bring Taiwan under Beijing’s thumb without explicitly ruling out the use of force. Meanwhile, a busy President Biden has had his hands full keeping allies committed to Ukraine, battling Putin-sympathetic members of Congress, while also dealing with cascading crises in Israel and the Middle East. With that as our backdrop, does Lai’s election, Xi’s frustration, and Biden’s preoccupation mean we are closer to conflict in the Taiwan Strait? In this brief analysis we argue that at present the answer is “no.” And we make this call by looking at the vantage points and early actions of each country. For America, the Taiwan election has put the country on alert. For Taiwan, domestic concerns are mainly driving voters – not cross-Strait policy. For the People’s Republic of China (PRC; 中华人民共和国), ignore the rhetoric because they’ve followed their Taiwan election disappointment by returning to their standard playbook.1 But stay tuned…. perhaps they’re saving the fireworks for Lai’s May 20 inauguration.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, National Security, Politics, Elections, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, North America, and United States of America