Publication Year: within 25 Years

Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: This week's piece is on the international implications of a weaker US dollar. Seventeen weeks of dollar weakness raise the questions of whether the dollar is on a sustained path of decline, and what the implications are internationally. The 6% nominal effective decline in the dollar since January 31 might be sustained due to US financial and macroeconomic factors. Overall, the effect would be positive for Europe and the United States, and might encourage domestic demand growth in export-oriented Asian economies.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Former IMF First Deputy Managing Director Stanley Fischer expressed support for regional currency arrangements in a speech at the Hong Kong Monetary Authority on May 21. East Asian nations continue to discuss swap arrangements and other forms of cooperation in the hope of defending local currencies. Fischer endorsed the swap plans while throwing critical light on currency 'management' schemes. Such schemes could result in perverse consequences for regional economies.
Topic:: Economics, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Asia and Hong Kong

Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Intelligence assessments suggest that the bomb attack on French naval engineers in Karachi on May 8 bore the hallmarks of an al-Qaida operation. There is evidence to suggest that Osama bin Laden and other senior leaders are alive and regrouping, despite significant losses. The campaign against al-Qaida in Afghanistan and elsewhere is entering a new phase.
Topic:: Security and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, Europe, Middle East, and Arab Countries

Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: This week's piece examines the prospects for tidal stream and competing offshore renewable energy technologies. Options for exploiting the energy available from the world's oceans include offshore wind, wave and tidal stream energy. Offshore wind is by far the closest to commercial exploitation, but the range of possibilities is surprisingly broad.
Topic:: Development, Environment, Government, and Science and Technology

Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: This week's piece is on the progress towards completing the Financial Services Action Plan (FSAP). Amid continuing difficulties in key areas, pressure is growing for further advances in completing the single market for capital and financial services.
Topic:: International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Europe

Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: First-quarter GDP grew by 5.8%, the US government announced on Friday, 26 April 2002. The high growth figure will provide sustenance for optimists and help support high stock market valuations. However, the contrast with high-profile corporate earnings disappointments, together with a closer look at sources of demand, suggests a far weaker performance in the rest of 2002 and in 2003.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States

Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: OECD members meet in Paris today and tomorrow in the fourth high-level forum on reducing global steel production capacity. The world steel trade is more unsettled than at any time in the last twenty years. Surplus capacity is holding prices down and harming otherwise competitive manufacturers.
Topic:: Industrial Policy, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance

Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: A textbook approach to economic growth suggests the world is in for a difficult period. However, there are reasons to believe that the global economy will defy convention. The global economy will continue to support US external imbalances for the medium term, barring marked deterioration in certain areas of US weakness. However, European integration and Asian development could provide alternative sources of global demand, relieving the current imbalance of global dependence on the US economy.
Topic:: Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: This week's piece is on policy options for pension funding from an intergenerational risk-sharing perspective. Demographic and business-cycle trends point to a shortfall in pension provision for retiring generations over the medium term.
Topic:: Demographics, Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance

Publication Date:: 03-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: This week's piece focuses on the role of ERM II in the East European accession candidate countries. The EU's Exchange Rate Mechanism has emerged as the primary vehicle for the integration of the CEEC-10 accession countries into the European Monetary Union.
Topic:: International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Europe

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