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57321. US/China— Spyplane Accord

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
China said yesterday it would release the crew of the US EP-3 surveillance aircraft that was forced to land in Hainan Island on April 8, following a mid-air collision with a Chinese fighter. The Bush administration will welcome resolution of the dispute, especially as opinion polls released yesterday showed that a majority of US citizens regarded the crew as 'hostages'. Had the 24 crew members not been released before the Easter holiday, the crisis would have become far more significant for the White House, and inflamed anti-China sentiment in Congress. In the short term, resolution of the crisis will result in a scaling down of the criticism of some conservatives that the White House has been unduly accommodating towards China. However, in the longer-term, the episode will strengthen the conservative 'anti-China' lobby in Washington, which could hamper Bush's future attempts to improve relations with Beijing.
Topic:
International Relations and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, China, Washington, and Beijing

57322. United States — Medical Marijuana

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The US Supreme Court heard oral argument last month on whether 'medical necessity' should override the federal government's blanket prohibition on the use of marijuana. If the Court were to accept this argument, it would provide a powerful boost to the medical marijuana movement and hamper the federal government's ability to pursue its current drugs policy. A ruling in favour of the federal government, however, would constrain the ability of states to formulate independent drug policies. The Supreme Court is likely to sidestep the substantive issue of whether 'medical necessity' allows the distribution of marijuana to seriously ill patients. Its inclination will be to decide the case on a narrow procedural ground which would leave the federal government to decide if it wishes to pursue criminal prosecutions.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

57323. India — Arms Scandal

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
On March 15, Defence Minister George Fernandes resigned. Fernandes' resignation follows last week's revelations about cash-for-influence exchanges with journalists posing as arms dealers. Although the Union coalition government is likely to survive the affair, its prestige has been severely damaged. The most serious potential of the Tehelka scandal is the government's loss of the moral authority to forge ahead with its economic reform programme. Opponents of liberalisation, both on the right and the left, are attempting to draw political capital from the affair.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

57324. Japan — Monetary Easing

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced a new approach to monetary policy which effectively targets money supply growth and inflation on March 19. The BoJ has indicated that the immediate consequence of its measures to boost financial system liquidity will be to push short-term interest rates back to zero or virtually zero. It has pledged to maintain rates at this level until deflationary pressures are reversed and the consumer price index becomes positive. The BoJ's actions have the potential to lead to a revival in share prices, corporate activity and bank lending. If the initiative results in a sustained weakening of the yen, the economy may also benefit from stronger export growth. However, the effect of all of these measures will be blunted unless they are accompanied by the structural reforms which the government has for some time foreshadowed, but which have suffered from delay and indecision.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Japan and East Asia

57325. Indonesia — Kalimantan Consequences

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
President Aburrahman Wahid yesterday visited Central Kalimantan, the scene of violent clashes between local Dayaks and Madurese settlers. The crisis has its origins in the ill-conceived transmigration policies of the Suharto era. Despite its localised and specific nature, there is a significant risk that it will embolden other outer-island communities to move more decisively against non-indigenous sections of local populations. This would place further strains on the thinly-stretched security forces. With Wahid's authority already weakened, the crisis in Central Kalimantan will strengthen the position of hard-line elements in the military who are opposed to the president. Nonetheless, Megawati's ability to gain political capital will be limited by the fact that she herself has a leading role in formulating policy towards the regions.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Government, Migration, and Politics
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

57326. Moldova — Communist Government

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The Party of Moldovan Communists (PCM) has won full control over parliament following the February 25 general election. The decisive result has broken the country's political stalemate and allows the PCM to select the president, premier and parliamentary speaker without needing to form a coalition in the chamber. However, uncertainties over the PCM's economic policy and political priorities persist. While the PCM has a monopoly on power, this could be undermined by continued economic decline, internal party splits and a nationalist backlash against its pro-Russian orientation. The PCM will seek allies in domestic politics, and will seek to find the external partner, whether Russia or the IFIs, best able to assist in the long-term revival of the economy.
Topic:
Communism, Government, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:
Moldova and Eastern Europe

57327. Indonesia — Wahid Reprieve

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The past month has seen an escalation of elite political conflict in Jakarta, with enemies of President Abdurrahman Wahid engineering an investigation into allegations that he was involved in two financial corruption scandals. This investigation culminated in the endorsement by a majority of members of the House of Representatives on February 1 of a 'memorandum' concluding that the president was indeed implicated in corruption and demanding that he account for his actions. Many opposition legislators also called for the convening of a special session of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), the 700-member supra-parliamentary body which elected Wahid as president in October 1999 and has sole power to remove him.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

57328. United States — Bush Administration

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
A combination of good fortune and some skilful planning have allowed the Bush administration to make a successful start in office. These factors will probably allow the president to pursue much of his agenda effectively this year. However, difficulties will be encountered once Washington politics becomes preoccupied by the 2002 congressional elections.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
United States and Washington

57329. Israel — Sharon Victory

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Likud leader Ariel Sharon's resounding victory in last Tuesday's election for prime minister has produced a chaotic political situation. The Knesset is likely to remain as dysfunctional as it was before the election campaign and Sharon will face immense difficulties in his attempts to form a government and pass the budget. Even should he succeed, it is possible that the government will fall before the next scheduled election, and that he will face a credible challenge from former prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

57330. Ukraine — Kuchma Cornered

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Opposition deputies, led by former justice minister Serhiy Holovatiy, have called on President Leonid Kuchma to resign over his alleged involvement in the murder of a journalist. The scandal has provoked popular protests and divided Kuchma's non-left majority in parliament, although the work of the reformist government has not been adversely affected. The case has highlighted the absence of the rule of law and the executive's control over supposedly independent state organs. Kuchma's fate depends on his ability to retain the support of oligarchic interests, some of which have already defected. His departure would enable the popular Yushchenko to campaign for the presidency while enjoying the benefits of incumbency, albeit in a temporary capacity.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Ukraine and Eastern Europe

57331. United Kingdom — Mandelson Departure

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, Peter Mandelson, resigned in acrimonious circumstances last week. Mandelson was a key figure in the reconstruction of the Labour Party in the 1990s and the most prominent partisan of early euro entry in the UK cabinet. While Mandelson's departure will be felt within the Labour Party and comes at a critical time in the Northern Ireland peace process, the most substantial impact is likely to be on the internal debate within the cabinet over euro-area entry, with the consequence of a diminishing likelihood of an early referendum on the issue.
Topic:
Government, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and North Ireland

57332. Philippines — Macapagal-Arroyo Elevation

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Newly inaugurated President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo installed herself in Manila's Malacanang presidential palace on January 22. Macapagal-Arroyo's elevation from vice-president to president represents the culmination of a long campaign by opposition politicians and civic figures to unseat Joseph Estrada from the presidency. While Macapagal-Arroyo's administrative style is likely to differ markedly from her predecessor, her accession also represents the return to political prominence of elite groups closely associated with the presidencies of Corazon Aquino and Fidel Ramos. The ouster of Estrada significantly diminishes the political and economic uncertainty and instability which has plagued the country for several months. However, as the euphoria of 'people power' fades, factional politics within the new administration, and the regrouping of pro-Estrada forces in a new opposition, are likely to present Macapagal-Arroyo with significant challenges.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Philippines and Southeast Asia

57333. Middle East — Arafat Manoeuvres

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Senior Palestinian officials this week rejected US President Bill Clinton's peace proposals. All the Palestinian factions have now rejected the proposals designed to end the conflict with Israel. This is a sign of the overwhelming domestic pressure Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat is under. However, his position remains one of conditional acceptance as he awaits further US interpretations and clarifications. Arafat's conditional acceptance of the US proposals is an attempt to improve his diplomatic position. He hopes to make use of the enhanced Arab engagement in the Palestinian-Israeli peace process to improve on the terms of a future peace agreement. This will be essential if he is to win domestic approval of any deal.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

57334. CIAO: Russia: Weimar Analogy

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Striking parallels exist between post-Soviet Russia and Weimar Germany (1918-33) with regard to their international position, socio-economic conditions, sense of defeat and humiliation, and political situation. The analogy implies that a fascist regime is likely to come to power in Russia. However, the underlying causes of economic distress, the structure of the political system, and the cultural context in post-Soviet Russia and Weimar Germany also differ. Thus, contemporary Russia has weak fascist movements. The regime that emerges will probably be authoritarian and nationalist in character, and may to some extent exhibit fascist tendencies, but is very unlikely to be fully fascist in the classical sense.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia and Germany

57335. United States — 'Plan Colombia'

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Congressional criticism of 'Plan Colombia's' military component, and the advent of a new administration in Washington, are likely to lead to a strategic review of US policy. The outcome may be a policy that is less military focused, more regionally oriented, and based on closer cooperation with other aid donors. It has become increasingly clear that Plan Colombia can only be implemented if the EU and its member states are prepared to increase their financial contribution. This will give the Europeans considerable leverage, and they are likely to use it to insist on a less militarised approach. However, even with a change in policy emphasis, the prospects of success will remain poor.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Colombia, and South America

57336. Inside Baltimore's Safety Net

Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Open Society Foundations
Abstract:
This report presents data from a series of surveys of safety net organizations, clients who access care at these sties, and the providers who work there. The goal of this project was to identify issues and needs facing clients at these sites and the unique role of safety net organizations in meeting these needs. An additional goal was to identify potential challenges to the mission and capacity of this network of providers that is caring for society’s most vulnerable and needy individuals. The surveys were conducted by medical students participating in the Soros Service Program for Community Health. This summer internship, part of the Open Society Institute’s Medicine as a Profession initiative, places first year medical students from around the country in community-based organizations for a seven-week internship. The students get to experience first-hand issues facing patients trying to access care in the face of poverty, addiction, abuse, and homelessness. They receive mentoring from a very talented and committed team of community providers and participate in an intensive curriculum that focuses on issues of professionalism facing physicians. The goal is to introduce students early in their education and training to positive examples of empowered communities and providers serving the needs of traditionally disenfranchised patient populations and to introduce the concepts and practice of patient advocacy.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Employment, Inequality, Public Policy, Welfare, and Public Health
Political Geography:
United States

57337. Monitoring the EU Accession Process: Judicial Independence

Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Open Society Foundations
Abstract:
The EU Accession Monitoring Program of the Open Society Institute was initiated in 2000 to encourage independent monitoring of the process by which the European Union is considering applications for membership from the ten candidate States of Central and Eastern Europe. The Program aims to contribute to this historic process by producing monitoring reports to complement the evaluations already being conducted by the European Commission, as reflected in its annual “Regular Reports” on candidate States’ progress towards meeting accession criteria. The enlargement of the European Union is a positive development, and independent monitoring is one means of magnifying its beneficial effects, both within the candidate States and in the EU itself.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Nation-State
Political Geography:
Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, Bulgaria, Romania, Latvia, Czech Republic, Slovenia, and Slovakia

57338. Regional Identity in the Post-Cold War Balkans

Author:
Dimitar Bechev
Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
Facing commonalities and yet fully aware of differences, this paper addresses the question whether there is a broader regional identity in the Balkans, which transcends national boundaries. It is critical to define what that specific identity means, what its political implications are, what the relationship between things national and regional is. Assuming identities and collective solidarities tend to be “discursively constructed, particularly enacted, and historically situated” (Wendt, 1994) or “plural, malleable, flexible” (Ferguson and Mansbach, 1994), I argue that as far as the Balkans are concerned there are both unexplored possibilities and a number of impediments in the quest for broader and multiple conceptions of belonging. The paper proposes a middle way of dealing with the issue of the relationship between national and regional which focuses on the proposition that a regional system of international relations is gradually emerging, which configures state-to-state interactions in particular ways and provides grounds for new identifications. The first section of the paper underlies the merely practical implications of the project of self-determination and particularisation that has governed Balkan politics for at least 200 years and has triumphed with the last wave of national secessionism in the 1990s. The imperative to come up with modes of interstate co-operation inevitably leads to the question what the primary source of disunity is. Making some preliminary theoretical points (second section) and tracing the emergence of national identities and the demise of broader loyalties (third section), the paper proceeds to elaborate on two strategies attempting to reconcile parochialism and regionalism: the revaluation of the exclusivist narratives of ethnocentrism, and the construction of a specific regional political context that the Balkan states participate in. I consider the latter minimalist understanding superior and suggest that it contains the right explanation of Balkan regional identity.
Topic:
Politics, Regionalism, Post Cold War, and Identity
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Balkans

57339. Economic Growth in Colombia: A Reversal of 'Fortune'?

Author:
Mauricio Cardenas
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Colombia’s annual GDP growth fell to an average of 3% between 1980 and 2000 from 5% between 1950 and 1980. The sources-of-growth decomposition shows that this reversal can be accounted entirely by changes in productivity. Indeed, between 1960 and 1960 productivity gains increased output per capita by 1% per year. Since 1980, productivity losses have reduced output per capita at the same rate. The time series analysis suggests that the implosion of productivity is related to the increase in criminality which has diverted capital and labor to unproductive activities. In turn, the rise in crime has been the result of rapid expansion in drug-trafficking activities, which erupted around 1980. This explanation is supported by cross-country evidence that shows that Colombia is clear outlier in terms of conflict and fragmentation, and suggests that high crime is associated with low productivity.
Topic:
Crime, Economic Growth, Conflict, Social Capital, and Productivity
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

57340. Grants Vs . Investment Subsidies

Author:
Ashok S. Rai and Tomas Sjöström
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
How should a government intervene to help the credit constrained poor? We study an economy where productivity and wealth are unobserved, and loans must be collateralized. We show that the e¢cient policy typically consists of o¤ering both a grant and an investment subsidy. Everybody will take the grant and only the relatively productive will take the subsidy. This policy reduces but does not eliminate investment distortions.
Topic:
Poverty, Investment, Collateral, Credit Constraints, Intervention, and Loan Subsidy
Political Geography:
Global Focus