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57302. United States — Trade Adjustment Assistance
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- This piece focuses on the performance of and prospects for Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) programmes. The number of employees and employers who have benefited from programmes designed to counter the effects of certain trade agreements has expanded dramatically during the past few years. Such trade adjustment assistance is likely to be included in future legislation implementing new WTO and other trade agreements, largely to garner support for further trade liberalisation.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
57303. Brazil — IMF Agreement
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The real is stabilising against the dollar following the announcement of the latest draft agreement between Brazil and the IMF on August 3. The provision of additional resources by the Fund is designed to support the value of the real and prevent the Brazilian economy from sliding into recession.
- Topic:
- International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and Latin America
57304. Uruguay — Defensive Economics
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- In response to regional instability and two years of recession, Uruguay's government has taken measures to stimulate economic growth.
- Topic:
- International Organization and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
57305. Israel/Turkey: Strategic Ties
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Israel's Chief of Staff Shaul Mofaz met senior Turkish defence officials on July 27 to discuss defence cooperation. Israel and Turkey, facing similar strategic problems based on shared interests and fears, are in the process of building the most powerful alliance in the Middle East. They are doing so in the face of opposition from the Arab and Muslim worlds as well wider concerns, notably on the part of Russia. The Turkish-Israeli alliance now appears sufficiently robust, at least for the moment, to withstand opposition from the Arab and Muslim world. Moreover, US support for the entente may grow owing to concerns about terrorism and stability in the eastern Mediterranean basin, as well as the administration's renewed emphasis on stability in the Gulf.
- Topic:
- Security and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Israel
57306. Mercosur/European Union — Tariff Talks
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The outlook for trade ties between the EU and Mercosur. EU-Mercosur trade negotiations earlier this month gave a vigorous push to commercial negotiations between the two regions. The EU presented a detailed proposal for liberalising EU-Mercosur trade during the next ten years. Trade talks between the EU and Mercosur have now reached a more advanced stage than the talks on the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA).
- Topic:
- Economics and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe
57307. India/Pakistan — Peace Pipe
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- India and Iran have proposed the construction of a natural gas pipeline connection. While the project would be a major engineering achievement, the principal challenge will be gaining Islamabad's consent for it to traverse Pakistani territory. Pakistan's parlous relations with Tehran and Delhi, the latter little improved by last weekend's summit, will make this difficult.
- Topic:
- Economics, Energy Policy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, South Asia, India, and Asia
57308. United States — Downturn Dilemmas
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Despite the continuing fragility of the economy, prompt policy action and the resilience of the US consumer are likely to prevent a full-blown recession, thereby shaping the probable path of the US economic downturn. Therefore, the risk of negative balance sheets and potential inflationary problems could arise from too rapid a recovery.
- Topic:
- Economics and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States
57309. European Union: Belgian Presidency
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The rotating EU presidency this week passed from the Swedish to the Belgian government. The Belgian presidency faces a considerable test of nerve as it attempts to square its constitutional ambitions for further political integration with the increasing unpredictability of European public opinion. The new public mood of caution towards European integration has resulted in a notable ambivalence on the part of Verhofstadt. While stressing the importance of a completely open debate, Verhofstadt is also using the more closed approach of close consultation between governments and their representatives in preparing keynote proposals for the Laeken European Council, which, in reality, is the only way of reaching solutions.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe
57310. Argentina — Federal Stand-Off
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 06-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Opposition Peronist party governors and trade unions this week broke off institutional dialogue with the federal government over recent economic measures and pending debts. The fourteen governors in question, their minds on mid-term legislative elections, believe that the political cost of supporting the government will be greater than the cost of being seen to scupper its initiatives, and that opposition constitutes a more effective means of pressing their demands. Their decision puts the prospects for Argentina's economic recovery at risk. The Peronist governors' decision to distance themselves from the government both reflects and compounds the weakness of the federal administration. While their new approach to force concessions from the government could ease social problems in the short term, there is a danger that it will do so at the expense of economic recovery and political stability in the longer term.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- South America
57311. European Union — Enlargement Post-Gothenburg
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 06-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- At the Gothenburg European Council on June 15-16, EU leaders set themselves the objective of starting eastward enlargement by 2004. Small but significant changes in the wording of commitments on enlargement were agreed after intensive diplomacy by the Swedish EU presidency. The EU now has a very tight timetable for concluding negotiations with the front-runner candidates for membership. Although the candidates have made good progress, many political obstacles must be surmounted during the next 18 months, with the Irish referendum result creating further complications. However, the most important negotiations will not be those with the candidates, but those between the member states.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy and International Organization
- Political Geography:
- Europe
57312. Iran — Khatami Landslide
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 06-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- President Mohammed Khatami was re-elected on June 8 by a huge margin. Khatami's supporters are already talking about a renewed campaign for reform under a reorganised cabinet and a reinvigorated Majlis. However, the obstacles to such a programme remain formidable. Khatami is likely to press a little more strongly for reform, especially in the economic field. However, doubts remains that he or his parliamentary colleagues have the means to use the renewed mandate provided by the election to press for radical change. Any change is therefore likely to modest and incremental, though, in the Iranian context, significant.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
57313. Nepal — Royal Murders
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 06-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The new King of Nepal, Gyanendra Shah, promised an inquiry into the massacre that killed almost the entire royal family on June 1. Given the former king's legacy as adored head of state and symbol of stability, his violent death has created extreme political uncertainty. It has occurred at a time of general political unrest in the form of strikes and demonstrations in the towns and an increasingly violent Maoist insurrection in the countryside. In the short term, violent demonstrations over the unsatisfactory nature of official explanations of how the royal family died will continue. They may do so even after the findings of the independent inquiry into the deaths are announced. A return to calm depends largely on King Gyanendra's ability to govern in the same manner as his murdered brother.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and Nepal
57314. International — Weather Derivatives
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Weather derivatives trading is undergoing exponential growth. The current size of the weather derivatives market is 8 billion dollars, and it is expected to grow to at least 300 billion dollars within a few years. The opportunity to reduce exposure to natural risks will be exploited by large corporate groups and, eventually, smaller players too. It is important for the future development of the weather market that players have confidence in their own ability to determine fair prices, and that of the market to deliver these. Such confidence will encourage liquidity in the market from the end-users. However, traditional derivatives exchanges may find it difficult to obtain volume (and hence liquidity) in weather markets.
- Topic:
- Economics and Science and Technology
57315. European Union — Takeover Tensions
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The proposed takeover bids directive may be lost unless the differences between the European Parliament (EP) and the Council of Ministers are resolved by June 6. The ongoing negotiations between the Council and the EP in the conciliation committee may be made more difficult by Germany's recent decision to renege on the Council common position on the directive. The move was received with incomprehension in other EU member states. Germany so far stands alone in its attempt to change the directive. Nevertheless, its decision could give MEPs enough ammunition to avoid a compromise in the conciliation committee, and hence to allow the directive to fail. More importantly, Germany's decision also draws attention to the various level-playing field issues still to be addressed in the area of corporate control through greater harmonisation of company law.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
57316. Italy — Berlusconi Victory
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The outcome of last Sunday's general election is now clear. Although the centre-right has won substantial majorities in both houses of parliament, both the Alleanza Nazionale and the Northern League suffered setbacks. The League failed to pass the threshold needed to qualify for a share of the quarter of seats in the Chamber of Deputies allocated by proportional representation. For the time being, Forza Italia, and therefore Berlusconi, who dominates the party, is in firm control of the centre-right coalition. If Berlusconi can retain his authority over the coalition for the next five years, it could assist in stabilising a still highly-fractured and potentially unstable party system.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Italy
57317. Eastern Europe — Enlarging NATO
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The prime ministers of nine East European states seeking membership of NATO will meet in Bratislava this week, to maintain pressure for a 'big bang' enlargement of the Alliance. Enlargement will be conditioned to a greater extent than before by concerns over the cohesion of Alliance decision-making and, particularly, by the military contribution new members can make. Despite Alliance aid, applicant states and new members have struggled to develop balanced and sustainable defence plans, while the NATO-19 have yet to resolve the problems posed by Russia's attitude to enlargement.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, and International Organization
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Eastern Europe
57318. Afghanistan — Offensive Spring
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- UN High Commissioner for Refugees Ruud Lubbers yesterday began a visit to western Afghanistan to assess the country's deepening humanitarian crisis. Extreme drought and an intensification of the country's chronic war following a winter lull in fighting are likely to exacerbate famine and displacement of population. However, despite the emergence of a disaster which the international community will find difficult to ignore, UN sanctions against the Taliban, which controls 90% of the country, have done nothing either to curtail the movement's depredations against the population under its control or dampen its enthusiasm for a spring offensive. Peace for Afghanistan remains unrealistic as it enters its ninth year of civil war. Indeed, in the short term the total collapse of the country's agricultural system is likely to produce an influx of new recruits for this cycle of violence. However, evidence of a growing fractiousness within the Taliban could result in an emergence of a more moderate faction amenable both to dialogue with the international community and an accommodation with opposition forces.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Migration, Politics, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Asia
57319. Lebanon — Israeli Raid
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Israel last week launched an air raid against a Syrian radar station in Lebanon. The air raid has raised the stakes in the low-level military confrontation between Hizbollah and Israel. It has also exacerbated Lebanese internal divisions and exposed the lack of a national consensus on Hizbollah's cross-border operations. The Israeli raid has set a precedent and raised the stakes in Tel Aviv's confrontation with Hizbollah along the Lebanese border. Although neither Syria nor Israel is interested in a military confrontation, there are no guarantees that the situation will not spin out of control and lead to a limited regional conflict.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Security
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon
57320. Japan — LDP Prognosis
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will elect a new president on April 24. Given that the LDP is the largest party in parliament, its president will also become the country's prime minister. While the media and the public are demanding genuine leadership from the government, the LDP's structure militates strongly against forthright policy-making.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Japan and East Asia