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54642. China Brief, Balancing U.S. Interests in the Strait
- Author:
- Ronald N. Montaperto, Willy Lam, Cynthia Watson, and Jean-Pierre Cabestan
- Publication Date:
- 05-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- In the view of many observers, the normalization of Sino-American relations signaled the end of a strategic relationship with the Republic of China (Taiwan) that had endured with but one brief interruption for forty years. The rapid growth of economic ties between the U.S. and mainland China in the 1980s seemed to confirm this assessment. Although political connections through the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) remain strong, the major benefit to the United States of its unofficial relationship to the island lies in the economic realm.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Israel, and Taiwan
54643. China Brief, The Dragon's Drive for Caspian Oil
- Author:
- Ahmad Lutfi, John C. K. Daly, Stephen Bank, and Sergei Troush
- Publication Date:
- 05-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- China's insatiable energy thirst is causing it to undertake a global search for energy supplies to sustain its booming economy. Beijing has injected itself into the complex Caspian chess match to ensure itself as large a share as possible of resources being developed there. This complex political and economic maneuvering forces China to deal with the Caspian's five riparian states - Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Iran, Israel, Kazakhstan, Beijing, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan
54644. China Brief, Kim Jong-Il's Visit to Beijing: What Does it Mean for the West?
- Author:
- Mohan Malik, Matthew Oresman, Willy Lam, and Paul H.B Godwin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- The unusually effusive reception that the Chinese leadership accorded Dear Leader Kim Jong-Il last week has buttressed speculation that Beijing and Pyongyang probably reached some form of a deal even prior to the long awaited visit. According to diplomatic sources in Beijing, Kim agreed during discussions with his Chinese hosts to take a “more serious and proactive stance” toward the ongoing six-nation talks on dismantling his country's weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Moreover, the sources said the reclusive leader pledged that unless there was further “provocation” from the United States, Pyongyang would not engage in tension raising gimmicks such as testing bombs or missiles. And, at least for the time being, a freeze would be put on the development of new WMD.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Israel, Beijing, and Pyongyang
54645. China Brief,China's Reaction to America's Iraq Imbroglio
- Author:
- You Ji, Igor Rotar, Willy Lam, and Eric Teo
- Publication Date:
- 04-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership has been at pains not to appear to be gloating over the American quagmire in Iraq. Yet in terms of geopolitical calculus, there is little doubt Beijing sees America's worsening problems in Iraq as beneficial to China's global standing, diplomatically and militarily. Capitalizing on fissures in the international community over Iraq and America's war on terror, China has strengthened ties with key members of the European Union and the United Nations in an effort to counterbalance U.S. hegemony. Meanwhile, Chinese experts' scrutiny of the exploits as well as challenges of American and Allied Forces in Iraq will have a big impact on the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) ambitious modernization drive.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, Iraq, America, Europe, Israel, and Beijing
54646. China Brief, Chen shui-bian after the election: lame duck or phoenix?
- Author:
- Bernard D. Cole, Willy Lam, Arnold Zeitlin, and Harvey Stockwin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- Beijing's unusually cautious response to Taiwan's disputed presidential polls shows that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership has yet to come to a consensus on how to deal with four more years of administration under 'splittis' President Chen Shui-bian. This, despite the fact that with the country's fastgrowing economic, military and diplomatic clout, Beijing would seem to enjoy unquestioned superiority over the increasingly divided island of Taiwan.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, Taiwan, and Beijing
54647. China Brief,Cross-Strait Relations In Taiwan's Presi - Dential Elections
- Author:
- Willy Lam, Jonathan Mirsky, Enzio von Pfeil, and Ashok Kapur
- Publication Date:
- 03-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- No military action for the Taiwan Strait--not even psychological warfare oriented missile drills such as those undertaken in late 1995 and early 1996--is being planned by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) for the coming year or so. And this will be true whether President Chen Shui-bian or his challenger, Kuomintang (KMT) Chairman Lien Chan, wins in the hotly contested polls on March 20. However, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership is readying hardball solutions to the reunification problem for the medium-term.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, and Taiwan
54648. China Brief, Understanding Chinaís North Korea Policy
- Author:
- Frank Ching, You Ji, Willy Lam, and Eric Teo
- Publication Date:
- 03-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- The two rounds of six-party talks in Beijing on the Korean nuclear standoff have demonstrated China.s unusual support for a multilateral solution to the conflict. This is symbolic of the country.s new diplomacy under Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabo. As is typical, Beijing is seeking to maximize its diplomatic gains for reasons related to national prestige and regional stability. What is new, however, is that the two leaders are trying to achieve these goals by having China act as a status quo power rather than through revisionist behavior. This change is vividly reflected in the fact that China has proven more willing to cooperate with the United States and is more determined to pressure North Korea. This brief article attempts to evaluate some of the domestic and international factors that are driving China to sponsor the six-party talks. conflicts on the Peninsula.with severe security implications for China. In the last few years two schools of thought have emerged in Beijing with respect to Chinese policy toward the DPRK. The first of these is the .buffer zone. school. It argues that, Pyongyang.s ill intentions and unpredictable adventurism notwithstanding, North Korea.s very existence remains of great strategic value to a China whose worst security nightmare is that of another Korean war. Moreover, any regime change that might occur in the DPRK as a result of war could bring the deployment of U.S. troops to positions close to the Sino-Korean borders. And taking into consideration a possible showdown between China and the United States in the Taiwan Strait, this could result in a hostile military presence right on China.s doorstep. Indeed, it was precisely this worst case scenario that China fought a war fifty-four years ago to prevent.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Israel, Taiwan, Beijing, North Korea, Korea, and Pyongyang
54649. Foreword
- Author:
- Chernor Jalloh
- Publication Date:
- 03-2004
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- African Journal of Legal Studies
- Institution:
- The Africa Law Institute
- Abstract:
- On behalf of the entire Editorial Board, I am pleased to present the inaugural issue of the African Journal of Legal Studies (‘AJLS’) on the theme of Justice and Reconciliation. It is dedicated to the memory of all those who were killed in the genocide in Rwanda in 1994.
- Political Geography:
- Africa
54650. Violence, Amnesty and Transitional Law: "Private" Acts and "Public" Truth in South Africa
- Author:
- Rosemary Nagy
- Publication Date:
- 03-2004
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- African Journal of Legal Studies
- Institution:
- The Africa Law Institute
- Abstract:
- Whereas amnesty is generally associated with impunity and denial, in South Africa, amnesty was pulled into the reach of justice and reconciliation. This article assesses the extent to which South Africa's amnesty fulfilled these normative goals. It centers on the difficulty of differentiating between “private” acts and “political” crimes deserving of amnesty. It argues that the determination of political crimes obfuscated the full extent of apartheid violence and responsibility for it. Consequently, the amnesty process produced a truncated “truth” about apartheid violence that was insufficient to the task of overcoming the past. This is in part an intractable problem embedded in the conflicting tasks of transitional law. The lesson of hope that South Africa offers to other transitional nations is that amnesty should be wound into the promises of democracy without creating false expectations of reconciliation or simplistic truths about the past.
- Political Geography:
- South Africa
54651. Reconciliation in Post-Genocide Rwanda
- Author:
- Eugenia Zorbas
- Publication Date:
- 03-2004
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- African Journal of Legal Studies
- Institution:
- The Africa Law Institute
- Abstract:
- National reconciliation is a vague and 'messy' process. In post-genocide Rwanda, it presents special difficulties that stem from the particular nature of the Rwandan crisis and the popular participation that characterized the Rwandan atrocities. This article outlines the main approaches being used in Rwanda to achieve reconciliation, highlighting some of the major obstacles faced by these institutions. It then goes on to argue that certain 'Silences' are being imposed on the reconciliation process, including the failure to prosecute alleged RPA crimes, the lack of debate on, and the instrumentalization of, Rwanda's 'histories', the collective stigmatization of all Hutu as génocidaires, and the papering over of societal cleavages through the 'outlawing' of 'divisionism'. The role economic development can play in the reconciliation process is also discussed. Given the Government of Rwanda's central role in the reconciliation process and its progressive drift towards authoritarianism, the article ends with a reflection on the worrisome parallels between the pre and post-genocide socio-political contexts.
54652. The Iraqi Insurgency & Iraq Security Force Development
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 07-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- Progress toward a stable peace in Iraq and the withdrawal of US troops begins with the painful recognition that America's recent troubles are largely self-inflicted. This is due principally to the adoption of mission objectives that far exceed what is necessary or pragmatic.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Government, Politics, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, America, and Middle East
54653. Radical Departure: Toward A Practical Peace in Iraq
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 07-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- The key to enabling total US troop withdrawal from Iraq within 400 days is achieving a political accord with Sunni leaders at all levels and with Iraq's neighbors - especially Syria and Iran. The proximal aim would be to immediately lower the level of conflict inside Iraq by constricting both active and passive support for the insurgency, inside and outside the country. This would allow the United States to shift resources to the training mission and to adopt other de-escalatory measures - most importantly: a withdrawal time line. The strategic price of this diplomatic initiative would be a return to self-governance in Sunni areas, a guaranteed level of representation for these areas in the national assembly, an end to broad-brush measures of de-Baathification, an amnesty for most indigenous insurgents and for most former Baathists, and a de-escalation of the US confrontation with Syria and Iran regarding a range of issues. In conjunction with these diplomatic initiatives, the United States would announce a tentative time line for withdrawal of its troops from Iraq -- associated with training milestones. Also: US forces would end major offensive sweeps inside the country, adopt a defensive posture, and shift the emphasis of their activity to training Iraqi security forces. Finally: the Iraqi government would re-activate portions of the old army -- partly as a confidence-building measure, but also in order to (i) rob insurgent organizations of their recruiting base, (ii) augment the power of the new Iraqi security forces, and (iii) produce a better ethnic balance in the new forces (which are currently dominated by Kurds and Shiites). As new forces increase in capacity, US forces would be removed, further reducing a stimulus of insurgent action. Four hundred days - 57 weeks - is sufficient time to complete several Iraqi training cycles, including field exercises for many units at the battalion and brigade levels. Some division level training also can occur. Given sufficient resources (24,000 training personnel), 100,000 Iraqi security personnel can receive remedial training and another 80,000 new personnel can be trained and exercised during this period. Together with the full provision of all appropriate equipment, this development effort can yield Iraqi security forces that are several times more capable than those it controls in mid-2005. After thirteen months, the only foreign military assets remaining in Iraq would be a small monitoring and training mission with a security detail: less than 10,000 foreign civilian and military personnel in all. US troops should constitute no more than one-third of the military component -- that is, approximately 2,000 troops. This mission should be conducted under a three-year UN mandate and joint NATO-international command. In addition, the United States might maintain a 25,000-person rapid reaction task force in the region, but outside either Iraq or Saudi Arabia.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Government, Politics, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, and Middle East
54654. Disappearing the Dead: Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Idea of a "New Warfare
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 02-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- Among those endeavors that a state or a people may undertake, none is more terrible than war. None has repercussions more far-reaching or profound. Thus, a grave responsibility to one's own nation and to the global community attends any decision to go to war. And part of this responsibility is to estimate and gauge the effects of war, including the collateral damage and civilian casualties that it incurs.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy and War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iraq, Central Asia, and Middle East
54655. U.S. Korea Security Alliance in Transition: A U.S. Perspective
- Author:
- Michael McDevitt
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Journal of Korean Studies
- Institution:
- International Council on Korean Studies
- Abstract:
- The US-ROK security relationship is in transition. It is a transition that started some time ago, in 1989 to be precise, with the end of the Cold War. What we are experiencing today is simply the latest, and perhaps most public manifestation, of a process that has been gathering momentum since the early days of the first Bush Administration.
- Political Geography:
- United States and Korea
54656. U.S.-Korea Security Alliance in Transition: A ROK Perspective
- Author:
- Jae-Kap Ryoo
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Journal of Korean Studies
- Institution:
- International Council on Korean Studies
- Abstract:
- Is the ROK-U.S. alliance relationship in crisis or at a turning point where it can be transformed into a more resilient alliance? Is there simply a semantic debate raising questions at the moment or is the alliance suffering a real crisis? Most observers worry about the alliance's future, and many experts consider that the alliance relationship is in a transitional period: to be redefined and restructured to meet new requirements for the 21st century on the Korean peninsula and in the Asia-Pacific region more generally. At present, the Republic of Korea and the United States need to prepare for the future. In light of various challenges to their security alliance, future prospects do not seem bright. This article is an attempt to do three things: to analyze various challenges to the ROK-U.S. alliance relationship and to consider the strategic implications for the future of the alliance in the Asia-Pacific region; to explore more effective ways to develop a new relationship for the 21st century; and to search for a more appropriate method to make the alliance “unique” in the Asia-Pacific while remaining comparable with the U.S.-Japan alliance and other treaty relationships.
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, and Korea
54657. Changing Inter-Korean Relations and the Impact on the U.S.-ROK Alliance
- Author:
- Choong Nam Kim
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Journal of Korean Studies
- Institution:
- International Council on Korean Studies
- Abstract:
- With the end of the Cold War, since the 1990s Inter-Korean relations, a lasting reminder of that Cold War, have undergone drastic changes, especially during and after the Kim Dae Jung administration. Peace and stability in Northeast Asia depend on what happens on the Korean peninsula. How Seoul's North Korea policy evolves is of great interest to its allies and will likely impact South Korea's stature in the regional strategic order. In particular, the U.S.-ROK relationship can improve or deteriorate based on the diplomatic direction that South Korea takes with North Korea.
- Political Geography:
- United States, South Korea, North Korea, Korea, and Northeast Asia
54658. The Changing Role Of China On The Korean Peninsula
- Author:
- Samuel S. Kim
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Journal of Korean Studies
- Institution:
- International Council on Korean Studies
- Abstract:
- There has been much talk lately about the changing role of China on the Korean peninsula. China's proactive diplomacy during the second standoff over nuclear weapons between the United States and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) stands in marked contrast to the risk-averse “who me?” posture it held during the conflict of the early 1990s that culminated in the U.S.-DPRK Agreed Framework on October 21, 1994. In that earlier conflict, the Chinese opted to sit on the sidelines with the familiar refrain that this was a dispute to be resolved bilaterally between Washington and Pyongyang. In the latest (second) nuclear standoff, China has played the primary catalytic role of facilitating bi-trilateral (DPRK-U.S.-China) and multilateral six-nation dialogues among all the Northeast Asian concerned states, drawing North Korea into a sui generis regional multilateral setting that it had previously sworn off in a quest for bilateral negotiations with the United States. In this process, the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the Republic of Korea (ROK) have increasingly come into virtual geopolitical alignment, in tandem with the straining and fracturing of the ROK-US alliance.
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Washington, Asia, Korea, and Pyongyang
54659. China's "Peaceful Rise:" Implications for US Interests in Korea
- Author:
- Robert Sutter
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Journal of Korean Studies
- Institution:
- International Council on Korean Studies
- Abstract:
- Beginning in 2003, Chinese leaders began a new stage in China's efforts to define China's approach toward its neighboring countries and what China's approach meant for the United States and US interests in Asia and the world. Premier Wen Jiabao addressed the topic of China's peaceful rise in a speech in New York on December 9, 2003. Despite such high level pronouncements, the exact purpose and scope of the new emphasis on China's “peaceful rise” remained less than clear to Chinese and foreign specialists. Consultations in May 2004 with 50 Chinese officials and non-government specialists closely involved in this issue helped to clarify the state of play in Chinese decision-making circles regarding China's peaceful rise and what it meant for China's approach to Korea and the rest of Asia and for US interests and policy in the region.
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Asia, and Korea
54660. The Impact of North Korea's WMD Programs on Regional Security and the ROK-U.S. Alliance
- Author:
- Bruce E. Bechtol, Jr.
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Journal of Korean Studies
- Institution:
- International Council on Korean Studies
- Abstract:
- While the use of weapons of mass destruction such as nuclear programs and missiles has been part of Pyongyang's brinkmanship strategy almost since the very beginning of the Kim Chong-il era, the current string of events that have occurred since the fall of 2002 is unique. Instead of the world and the region having concerns over the nuclear facility at Yongbyon, the situation now exists where North Korea has the potential for weaponizing, using, and proliferating two nuclear programs - both plutonium based, and the Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) program which came into existence during the 1990s.
- Political Geography:
- United States and North Korea