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54561. Opening the Books: Transparent Budgeting for Iraq

Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Open Society Foundations
Abstract:
This report, the fifth in a series by the Open Society Iraq Revenue Watch, evaluates the level of transparency in budget reporting by the Baghdad-based Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA). On the eve of the transition to a new Iraqi government, the report finds that although the CPA’s financial procedures and documents have improved, they still fail to meet internationally recognized standards for fiscal decision-making and reporting. The report calls upon the CPA and the Governing Council to make further improvements in accordance with these standards. Budgetary transparency and accountability can help assure that Iraq does not revert to the tyranny of secrecy practiced under Saddam Hussein.
Topic:
Military Affairs, Transparency, and Revenue Management
Political Geography:
Iraq

54562. Disorder, Negligence, and Mismanagement

Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Open Society Foundations
Abstract:
Recent audits expose serious failures in American oversight of Iraq’s revenues and U.S. reconstruction funds, according to a report by the Open Society Institute’s Iraq Revenue Watch project. The audits—released in late July by the Coalition Provisional Authority Inspector General (CPA-IG)—paint a picture of disorder and negligence. Contractors made little effort to control costs, while the Coalition Provisional Authority, which was in charge of managing Iraqi reconstruction funds, failed to adhere to federally mandated procedures for awarding and overseeing contracts. “The CPA did not do its job regarding the oversight of reconstruction funds,” said Svetlana Tsalik, director of the Revenue Watch project. “It failed to stop the misuse and waste of money that belonged to the Iraqi people and American taxpayers.” An analysis of the data suggests that of $1.5 billion in contracts, the CPA awarded U.S. firms 74 percent of the value of all contracts paid for with Iraqi funds. Together with its British allies, U.S. and U.K. companies received 85 percent of the value of all such contracts. Iraqi firms, by contrast, received just 2 percent of the value of contracts paid for with Iraqi funds. “Government favorites such as Kellogg, Brown and Root benefited at the expense of Iraqi companies whose workers badly need jobs,” said Tsalik. The report, the sixth in a series by Iraq Revenue Watch, finds that 60 percent of the value of all contracts paid with Iraqi funds went to Halliburton subsidiary Kellogg, Brown & Root (KBR)—the same company that Pentagon auditors in December 2003 found had overcharged the U.S. government for as much as $61 million for fuel imports into Iraq. A criminal investigation of KBR was launched by the Department of Defense in February 2004. The CPA-IG audits confirm the findings of previous ones. A report released in July 2004 by the International Advisory and Monitoring Board, the watchdog body set up by the United Nations, found numerous problems in the CPA’s control and use of Iraqi oil assets during the occupation. These include the absence of oil metering to control theft, poor record-keeping on oil sales, an absence of oversight of spending by the Iraqi ministries, the use of noncompetitive bidding procedures for some contracts, and the CPA’s refusal to transmit crucial information to the UN-mandated body. A recent Pentagon audit of KBR’s billing system, which shows that systematic deficiencies in the company’s accounting and billing procedures incurred significant costs to U.S taxpayers and to Iraqi oil revenues, is further proof of mismanagement. Following the model of its American predecessor, the Iraq interim government to date has provided scant information about how it is managing Iraq’s oil revenues.
Topic:
Oil, United Nations, Military Affairs, Budget, Transparency, and Revenue Management
Political Geography:
Iraq

54563. Controlling Iraq’s Skies: The Secret Sell-Off of Iraq’s Air Industry

Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Open Society Foundations
Abstract:
In this report the Open Society Iraq Revenue Watch (IRW) looks at Iraq’s national air transport sector, which is presently controlled by the American-led Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA). Despite CPA claims that it intends to return control of the country’s air industry to the Iraqi people, a document obtained by the Open Society Foundations shows that a backroom deal has already sold off 75 percent of the country’s air sector to a single family. The IRW argues that the secret deal is one among a number of suspect agreements that have occurred under the radar in a chaotic post-war Iraq. The report’s authors caution that Iraq risks following a similar path as Russia, where a class of oligarchs emerged after the fall of communism by buying up state assets at below market prices. Controlling Iraq’s Skies recommends that this contract be frozen and an investigation be launched by the International Advisory and Monitoring Board, as well as by the CPA Inspector General. The report also calls on the CPA to compensate Iraqi Airways for damage to its facilities committed by occupying forces, and fees for the use of its facilities.
Topic:
Military Affairs, Budget, Public Sector, Iraq War, Air Force, and Revenue Management
Political Geography:
Iraq

54564. Aspirations and Reality: British Muslims and the Labour Market

Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Open Society Foundations
Abstract:
British Muslims face severe obstacles in the United Kingdom's labor market and have a disproportionately high rate of unemployment, according to this report from OSI's EU Monitoring and Advocacy Program (EUMAP). Aspirations and Reality: British Muslims and the Labour Market calls for more effort to meet the employment aspirations and needs of Muslims in the UK, especially Muslim women and young Muslims. "Government, the private sector, and Muslims themselves must ensure that British Muslims are not left out of the workforce," said the report's author, Zamila Bunglawala, who co-authored the Prime Minister’s Strategy Unit report on Ethnic Minorities and the Labour Market. British Muslims seeking employment face multiple obstacles, ranging from gaps in mainstream labor market policy and employer practices, poor service delivery and a lack of faith-friendly work environments. The extent to which Muslims face religious discrimination in the labor market is unknown; the report stressed that further analysis is needed to improve the understanding of the British Muslim group as a whole. Muslim youths are at particular risk of social exclusion. With Muslims set to comprise almost a quarter of the growth in the working age population in Britain between 1999 and 2009, integrating British Muslims into the mainstream labor market must now be a priority for the government, the report concludes.
Topic:
Islam, Religion, Labor Issues, Minorities, and European Union
Political Geography:
United Kingdom

54565. Euro-Atlantic and Euro-Asiatic Concerns of an Enlarged Europe: a Bulgarian View

Author:
Plamen Pantev
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
For historical, geopolitical, domestic and other reasons the enlarged Europe of 25 ‘+2’;’+3’, or ‘+4’ does not have a homogenized vision of the extent to which EU should differentiate itself in the realm of security from the United States of America. This causes fundamental concerns to the new members of the Union and to the other two, three or four that would join in the next few years. The Bulgarian perceptions of this issue cause concerns as to the most appropriate roles and functions of the country in the EuroAtlantic area as well as relative to the Euro-Asiatic neighborhood when the country joins the Union.
Topic:
Security, NATO, International Affairs, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, Bulgaria, and Atlantic Ocean

54566. An Action Agenda for Enhancing the United Nations Program on Counter-Terrorism

Author:
David Cortright, George A. Lopez, Alistair Millar, and Linda Gerber
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Fourth Freedom Forum
Abstract:
The project examines how the CTC and the CTED can more effectively implement the mandates of Security Council Resolutions 1373, 1377, 1456, 1535, and other relevant measures. The project addresses the following specific research topics: financial asset controls; technical assistance to enhance member state implementation capacity; international, regional, and subregional coordination; linkages between counter-terrorism assistance and development aid; and the need to respect human rights while implementing counter-terrorism mandates.
Topic:
International Cooperation, United Nations, Counter-terrorism, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:
Global Focus

54567. Non-custodial sentencing and its relevance in the justice system

Author:
Sandra Coffie
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Ghana Center for Democratic Development
Abstract:
In Ghana, sentencing policy has ensured that courts place more emphasis on custodial sentences than on other forms of punishment: for most, if not all, criminal convictions, Ghanaian courts impose custodial sentences as a matter of course. As a result, Ghana's prisons now contain more inmates than they were ever intended to - stretching prison facilities beyond capacity. Prison officials persistently complain of dangerous overcrowding. Social workers warn that some inmates have simply been forgotten, and many accused persons languish in pre- trial detention while their cases are pending. Rather than serving as places of reform, prisons have become a training ground for seasoned thugs.
Topic:
Criminal Justice and Justice
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

54568. Democratic Transitions

Author:
David Epstein, Robert Bates, Jack A. Goldstone, Kristian Søby Kristensen, and Sharyn O'Halloran
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Recent studies of democratization, most importantly Przeworski, Alvarez, Cheibub, Limongi, 2000 (PACL), question the modernization hypothesis that richer countries are more likely to be democratic. PACL claim instead that transitions to democracy are unpredictable, but once there, countries can remain democratic with higher levels of GDP per capita. We retest this hypothesis using an expanded data set and a three-way, rather than two-way, categorization of regimes: autocracies, partial democracies, and full democracies. We find that the modernization theory does hold up well, contrary to PACL’s findings: greater levels of prosperity do predict when countries are likely to leave autocracy and stay fully democratic. Partial democracies, on the other hand, emerge as the most volatile and least predictable category of regimes. We also find considerable support for Acemoglu and Robinson’s (2002) theories on inequality and transitions. Our analysis highlights the need to better understand the workings of partial, or unconsolidated, democracies, as these are also the countries most likely to enter external wars or fall prey to internal failure.
Topic:
Democratization, Governance, Democracy, Economy, Economic Growth, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Africa

54569. Sustainable Development in Ijebu-Ode, Nigeria: The Role of Social Capital, Participation, and Science and Technology

Author:
Akin L. Mabogunje and Robert W. Kates
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Sustainable development as an aspiration is global; as an ongoing process, it is local. A growing number of scientists and technologists share in the aspiration and experiment with the local. Here we report one such effort in Ijebu-Ode, a small city of 200,000 inhabitants in south-west Nigeria, which, through a participatory city consultation process chose to reduce poverty through a set of local and sustainable livelihood activities. Now four years into the effort, we describe the setting, the participatory process, the poverty reduction activities, and the impressive results to date. We attribute the success to date to the large stock of social capital, the participatory process that drew upon this stock, and the scientific and technological community that both serve as boundary spanners to link Ijebu-Ode to the national and the global and as a resource for local technologies and advice.
Topic:
Development, Science and Technology, Sustainability, Participation, and Social Capital
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

54570. The Impact of the Crisis - Decline and Recovery

Author:
Joseph J. Stern
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
When the Asian financial crisis broke in mid-1997, the expectation was that Indonesia would weather the crisis with minimal damage. Actual events soon proved these expectations widely wrong and the Indonesian economy was more severely affected than other Asian countries. In part this outcome reflected Indonesia's fundamental institutional weakness that had been overlooked in the euphoria that marked international financial markets during the 1990s, and in part the impact of the financial crisis was magnified by inconsistent internal policies and by an overly ambitious IMF program that tried to achieve too much in to short a period of time. The result was not only a severe economic contraction with rising poverty levels and growing social unrest, but a political change that resulted, in the short-run, in further economic instability and effectively delayed Indonesia's recovery.
Topic:
Politics, Financial Crisis, Banks, Currency, IMF, and Economic Recovery
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Asia, and Southeast Asia

54571. Framing the Fundamental Issues of Sustainable Development in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Akin L. Mabogunje
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper frames the fundamental issues of sustainable development in sub-Saharan Africa. The paper begins by considering the general problems of development in sub-Saharan Africa and then frames the issues as the maintenance or enhancement of the region's capital stocks. It describes the integration of the region into the global capitalist economy and considers how to integrate science and technology into the development culture of the region through greater concern with social learning. A concluding section reflects on the imperative of a new value and cultural orientation if sub-Saharan Africa is to meet the Millennium Development Goals of the United Nations and those of the New Partnership for Africa's Development articulated by African governments themselves.
Topic:
Globalization, Science and Technology, Sustainable Development Goals, Social Capital, and Knowledge Systems
Political Geography:
Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

54572. Tough Policies, Incredible Policies

Author:
Alejandro Neut and Andrés Velasco
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
We revisit the question of what determines the credibility of macroeconomic policies here, of promises to repay public debt. The literature has focused on governments. strategic decision to default (or erode the value of outstanding debt via inflation/devaluation). It has also focused on increasing policymakers. utility costs as a way to deter strategic misbehavior. By contrast, we build a model in which default or inflation can occur deliberately (for strategic reasons) or unavoidably (shocks leave no other option). In addition, when it does occur, default or inflation entail pecuniary costs, not just utility costs for the policymaker. In the model with these two features, much conventional wisdom on the determinants of credibility need no longer hold. Tough policies such a as appointing a conservative policymaker, indexing public debt or denominating public debt in foreign currency may reduce, not increase, the credibility of vows to repay debt in full. For some parameter values, these tough policies may also reduce welfare.
Topic:
Debt, Crisis Management, Macroeconomics, Currency, Credibility, and Commitment
Political Geography:
Global Focus

54573. Monetary Policy and the Currency Denomination of Debt: A Tale of Two Equilibria

Author:
Roberto Chang and Andrés Velasco
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Exchange rate policies depend on portfolio choices, and portfolio choices depend on anticipated exchange rate policies. This opens the door to multiple equilibria in policy regimes. We construct a model in which agents optimally choose to denominate their assets and liabilities either in domestic or in foreign currency. The monetary authority optimally chooses to float or to fix the currency, after portfolios have been chosen. We identify conditions under which both fixing and floating are equilibrium policies: if agents expect fixing and arrange their portfolios accordingly, the monetary authority validates that expectation; the same happens if agents initially expect floating. We also show that a flexible exchange rate Pareto-dominates a fixed one. It follows that social welfare would rise if the monetary authority could precommit to floating.
Topic:
Debt, Monetary Policy, Exchange Rate Policy, and Currency
Political Geography:
Global Focus

54574. Institutions and Development

Author:
Robert H. Bates, Avner Greif, Macartan Humphreys, and Smita Singh
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper addresses the political foundations for economic development in Africa and does so by exploring two basic themes: political accountability and political order. We say that political elites are accountable when, in order to retain office, they must employ power to serve the interests of those whom they rule. By political order we mean the extent to which people employ coercion to protect property rights rather than to trespass upon them. Where there is accountability, many hold, then those with power make policies that enhance the welfare of private citizens, as by rendering them more prosperous (e.g. World Bank 1991). And where there is political order, then there is security for property rights, rendering it in the interests of private agents to invest, to labor, and to generate higher levels of income (North and Thomas 1973). The paper provides data about the trajectory of political reform and political order in contemporary Africa and their significance for the behavior of governments. It demonstrates the limited impact of political reform upon public policy, documents the relationship between reform and conflict, and posits the existence of a political "trap" that limits Africa’s development.
Topic:
Development, Political Economy, Economic Growth, Accountability, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Africa

54575. Indian Higher Education Reform: From Half-Baked Socialism to Half-Baked Capitalism

Author:
Devesh Kapur and Pratap Bhanu Mehta
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper examines the political economy of Indian higher (tertiary) education. We first provide an empirical mapping of Indian higher education and demonstrate that higher education in India is being de facto privatized on a massive scale. But this privatization is not a result of changing ideological commitments of the key actors—the state, the judiciary or India’s propertied classes. Rather, this privatization has resulted from a breakdown of the state system and an exit of Indian elites from public institutions, to both private sector institutions within the country as well as abroad. Private philanthropy in higher education, which was supportive of public institutions in the past, is also increasingly withdrawing its support. Consequently the ideological and institutional underpinnings of this form of privatization remain exceedingly weak. The paper questions the extent to which the political economy of Indian higher education can be explained by the hypothesis of “middle class capture” and suggests that education policy, far from serving the interests of the middle class, is actually driven by a combination of ideology and vested interests. We also examine the role of the judiciary in shaping the regulatory landscape of Indian higher education and argue that it an important actor shaping the regulatory landscape of higher education, but in a manner that has done as much to confuse as clarify. Instead of being part of a comprehensive program of education reform, private initiatives remain hostage to the discretionary actions of the state. As a result, the education system remains suspended between over-regulation by the state on the one hand, and a discretionary privatization that is unable to mobilize private capital in productive ways. The result is a sub-optimal structuring of higher education. The most potent consequence of this is a secession of the middle class—ironically the very class whose interests these institutions were supposed to serve—from a stake in public institutions.
Topic:
Political Economy, Privatization, Capitalism, Higher Education, and Middle Class
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

54576. Incentives to Learn

Author:
Michael Kremer, Edward Miguel, and Rebecca Thornton
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
We report results from a randomized evaluation of a merit scholarship program for adolescent girls in Kenya. Girls who scored well on academic exams had their school fees paid and received a cash grant for school supplies. Girls eligible for the scholarship showed significant gains in academic exam scores (average gain 0.12-0.19 standard deviations) and these gains persisted following the competition. There is also evidence of positive program externalities on learning: boys, who were ineligible for the awards, also showed sizeable average test gains, as did girls with low pretest scores, who were unlikely to win. Both student and teacher school attendance increased in the program schools. We discuss implications both for understanding the nature of educational production functions and for the policy debate surrounding merit scholarships.
Topic:
Education, Human Capital, Girls, and Scholarships
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

54577. Probing the Sources of Political Order

Author:
Robert H. Bates
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
As noted by Hobbes, political order makes possible the good things of life. It constitutes the political foundations for development. Motivated by the theory of the state and qualitative materials from Africa, this paper develops a model of the foundations of political order, which it then tests on data from 46 African countries over the period 1970-1995.
Topic:
Development, Political Economy, Conflict, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Africa

54578. Why is There No AIDS Vaccine?

Author:
Michael Kremer and Christopher M. Snyder
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
We argue that differences in timing of drug and vaccine consumption will lead firms to be biased against developing vaccines. Vaccines are sold before consumers are infected, when they still have private information regarding their infection risk, whereas drugs are sold after consumers are infected, when those with positive valuation have no private information on infection risk. Calibrations suggest that, for sexually transmitted diseases, for which infection risk is highly heterogeneous across consumers, producer surplus from drugs may exceed that from vaccines by a factor of four. Consistent with the model, empirical tests suggest vaccines are particularly unlikely to be developed for sexually transmitted diseases. Biases against vaccines are exacerbated by the durability of vaccines and by the interaction between the timing of vaccine and drug consumption and the temporary protection of intellectual property rights. We extend the analysis to allow for government procurement and for income heterogeneity among consumers. Given that antiretroviral drugs are difficult to deliver in the poor countries where most people infected with HIV/AIDS live, biases against developing a vaccine raise enormous public health concerns.
Topic:
HIV/AIDS, Health, Public Health, and Vaccine
Political Geography:
Global Focus

54579. The Illusion of Sustainability

Author:
Michael Kremer and Edward Miguel
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Rather than provide development assistance indefinitely, foreign aid donors increasingly seek to help communities sustainably provide local public goods themselves. We examine various strategies for sustainably fighting intestinal worms through voluntary local mobilization. Intestinal worms affect one in four people worldwide, but can be controlled by taking medicine twice annually. Since much of the resulting treatment benefit comes through reduced disease transmission, standard public finance analysis provides a rationale for subsidized treatment. Randomized evaluations suggest several efforts to replace subsidies with sustainable worm control measures were ineffective. A drug cost recovery program reduced take-up by 80%. A mobilization intervention designed to boost drug take up failed. Health education did not affect behavior. People were less likely to take drugs if randomly exposed to more information through their social network. In this context, using external interventions to promote sustainable voluntary provision of local public goods (like worm control) appears unrealistic.
Topic:
Sustainable Development Goals, Sustainability, Cost Sharing, Social Learning, and Cost Recovery
Political Geography:
Africa

54580. Sustainability Values, Attitudes, and Behaviors: A Review of Multi-national and Global Trends

Author:
Anthony A. Leiserowitz, Robert W. Kates, and Thomas M. Parris
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
This review analyzes five efforts to define sustainability values, including the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, the Earth Charter, the UN Millennium Declaration, and the Global Scenario Group. It then summarizes empirical trends in sustainability values, attitudes, and behaviors, as measured by multi-national and global-scale surveys, related to human and economic development, the environment, and driving forces (population, affluence, technology, and entitlements). The review also summarizes empirical trends related to the values identified by the Millennium Declaration as essential to international relations (e.g., freedom and democracy, equality and shared responsibility), and broader contextual values (e.g., capitalism, globalization, institutional trust, and social change) that have sustainability implications. It then identifies several important attitude-behavior gaps and barriers. Finally this review draws several conclusions regarding future research needs and the value, attitude, and behavioral change needed to achieve sustainability.
Topic:
Environment, Poverty, Science and Technology, Population, Sustainable Development Goals, and Survey
Political Geography:
Global Focus