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54441. Observing Political Change in Venezuela: The Bolivarian Constitution and 2000 Elections

Author:
Laura Neuman and Jennifer McCoy
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
Venezuela under President Hugo Chávez undertook a bold experiment to revamp its political system and address economic inequities and poverty. The country held seven votes in two years as voters chose Hugo Chávez to lead them in December 1998 and then supported his radical reform program, beginning with a new constitution. A Constitutional Assembly was elected in July 1999 to draft a new constitution, which voters approved in December 1999. Every elected position in the country was then presented to the voters again in a two-stage election in July and December 2000. While we do not believe that the election irregularities would have changed the 2000 presidential results, the significant politicization of the elections and organizational deficiencies contributed to a lack of confidence in the process and the nonpresidential results, thus leading us to characterize the July 2000 elections as flawed.
Topic:
Democratization and Development
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Venezuela

54442. The Defense Monitor: Letter from the President

Author:
Rachel Stohl, Michael Donovan, Tomas Valasek, and Bruce.G Blair
Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
In the immediate wake of the terrorist atrocities, the entire CDI staff devoted itself to providing timely information and insight into the U.S. and world response to the crisis. Since then, we have channeled most of our effort into addressing the terrorist threat and its alleviation. Over 100 articles and updates have been posted on our web site on a daily basis, attracting heavy traffic to the site by an appreciative audience. Numerous other projects have been launched as part of this urgent new agenda - for instance, a joint project on nuclear terrorism involving Russian officials from the Ministry of Atomic Energy and CDI staff from Washington and Moscow (home of a new CDI office).
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Russia, Washington, and Moscow

54443. The Defense Monitor: Fatally Flawed? U.S. Policy Toward Failed States

Author:
Rachel Stohl, Michael Stohl, and Matthew Lewis
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
The Events Of Sept. 11 may prove, as so many have claimed in their immediate aftermath, to be a true watershed in international relations and for the lives of American citizens. However, there can be no doubt that the events changed the priorities of U.S. President George W. Bush, and challenged the approach to international relations that characterized the first nine months of the new administration. To that end, the current security environment will have significant impacts on the persisting problem of failed and failing states.
Topic:
Religion and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Arabia

54444. The Defense Monitor: Fiscal Year 2002 Budget Request

Author:
Christopher Hellman and Daniel Smith
Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
The bush administration is requesting $343.2 billion for the Pentagon in Fiscal Year 2002. This is $32.6 billion above current levels, and includes the $14.2 billion increase requested for the military in the March budget release (see below). This total also includes $14.3 billion for the defense functions of the Department of Energy.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States

54445. The Defense Monitor: Population Growth and Water Resources in the Middle East

Author:
Rachel Stohl, Christopher Hellman, Tomas Valasek, Leigh Josey, and Nicholas Berry
Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
Political strife is nothing new in the Middle East. In fact, many of the present-day disputes date back 100 years or more. But the increasing scarcity of renewable water resources and the simultaneous high population growth add new urgency to the necessity to devise a settlement.
Topic:
International Relations, Agriculture, Demographics, and Environment
Political Geography:
United States and Middle East

54446. The Defense Monitor: NMD Development is not Hostage to the ABM Treaty

Author:
Philip E. Coyle
Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
To prove he is serious about National Missile Defense, President George W. Bush must abrogate the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty now, according to the most strident critics of the treaty. The longstanding ABM accord with Russia, it is said, is thwarting the technology needed for missile defense.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States

54447. The Defense Monitor: The Security Environment in Asia

Author:
Nicholas Berry
Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
The security environment in Asia has become highly complex since the end of the Cold War. A legacy from that superpower struggle still affects security relations, but what is surprising is the re-emergence of issues associated with World War II and before. Asians have long memories. Their injuries are not forgotten. Past history is just yesterday.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States

54448. Potential Sources of Financing for U.S. Ventures in Russia

Author:
Askar Askarov, Katharine Reed, and Linn E. Schulte-Sasse
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:
Following the end of the Cold War, the United States and its allies recognized that it was in their vital security interests to promote stable transitions in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the New Independent States (NIS) of the former Soviet Union. For the most part, such transitions would depend on the efforts of the states in transition themselves, including many that had been newly formed. However, one way in which the Western nations could help was by economic assistance -- both financial and technical.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union

54449. How Verification Can Be Used to Ensure Irreversible Deep Reductions of Nuclear Weapons

Author:
Wu Jun
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:
Verifying nuclear disarmament is a complex technical process. This paper examines the techniques that could be used to verify future nuclear weapon reductions and analyzes the motivation for the nuclear states to accept deep weapon cuts and the prospect for future nuclear reductions. To allow large nuclear reductions and assure credible verification, several steps are suggested in this paper: all nuclear warheads should be registered and tagged; the total inventories of plutonium and high-enriched uranium as well as the fissile cores dismantled from the warheads should be verified; the nuclear delivery vehicles and launcher numbers and types should be monitored as outlined in the START and INF treaties; and agreed nuclear-capable delivery vehicle production should also be monitored.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States

54450. Verifying the Agreed Framework

Author:
Michael May, Nancy Suski, Robert Schock, William Sailor, Wayne Ruhter, Ronald Lehman, James Hassberger, Zachary Davis, George Bunn, and Chaim Braun
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:
The Agreed Framework (AF) between the United States of America and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), signed in Geneva on October 21, 1994, has become the centerpiece of recent US efforts to reduce the threat of conflict with North Korea. In particular, it seeks to bring the DPRK into compliance with its obligations under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) not to acquire nuclear weapons. The AF document sets goals, outlines programs, initiates a US-led nuclear-power consortium, and notes linkages. The AF refers to a wider range of diplomatic and international security initiatives, such as the NPT and the agreement on denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, and is meant to reinforce others, including those related to the reconciliation of the two Koreas.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, East Asia, and Korea

54451. (Re)Constructing Constructivist International Relations Research

Author:
Wayne Sandholtz, Hayward R. Alker, Raymond Duvall, Cecelia Lynch, Daniel Lynch, Stephen Majeski, Nicholas Onuf, Colin Wight, Robert English, Saori Katada, and J. Ann Tickner
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:
On October 6, 2001 the Center for International Studies at the University of Southern California held a workshop entitled “(Re)Constructing Constructivist International Relations Research.” This workshop joins a series held by CIS on cutting edge research in international relations. Participants were sent a statement composed by Hayward Alker and a copy of Nicholas Onuf's paper and asked to bring written comments based on these two documents.
Topic:
International Relations
Political Geography:
California

54452. Iraq's Military Capabilities: Fighting A Wounded, But Dangerous, Poisonous Snake

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
If we go to war with Iraq, we will go to war with forces that are the military equivalent of a wounded poisonous snake. They are weakened, but still dangerous, and they may lash out in ways that are truly dangerous. In broad terms, Iraq's forces have been in steadily decline ever since the beginning of the fighting in the Gulf War. They have been weakened by military defeat, by the impact of UN inspections, by wars of underfunding and by a decade without significant arms imports. At the same time, they are still the most powerful conventional forces in the Gulf, and Iraq may have some very unconventional weapons.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States and Middle East

54453. Biological War and the "Buffy Paradigm"

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
The most important single message that anyone can communicate in regard to biological weapons is that we face a very uncertain mix of existing threats politics, commercial development, and technology will change constantly as far into the future as we can look. The issue is not what we know, but how little we know and how little we can predict.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States

54454. Islamic Extremism in Saudi Arabia and the Attack on Al Khobar

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
This draft analysis is be circulated for comment as part of the CSIS “Saudi Arabia Enters the 21 st Century Project.” It will be extensively revised before final publication.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Arabia, and Saudi Arabia

54455. Defending America: Redefining the Conceptual Borders of Homeland Defense

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Chemical weapons have not been used effectively in attacks on the American homeland. Reports that the bombers of the World Trade Center considered trying to add a chemical weapon like sodium cyanide to their explosives seem to be untrue, and led to an unsubstantiated assertion by the trial judge. There have, however, been a number of attempts to use chemical weapons by domestic extremists and individuals. For example, in 1997, members of the KKK plotted to place an improvised explosive device on a hydrogen sulfide tank at a refinery near Dallas, Texas. There is a well-established, low-level risk that such weapons will be used in the future, although there is no way to predict the frequency of such attacks, their scale, potential success, or lethality.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States and America

54456. From B2B to G2G: Re-engineering the Canada-United States Relationship

Author:
Christopher Sands
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
The new century is marked by a transformation in the economy that is changing the environment in which the United States makes policy regarding Canada, which is already a complex and diffuse process. First: what is new about the new economy? Second, how does the U.S. approach Canada in its policy processes. Third, how does Canada attempt to manage its relations with the United States? Fourth, how can business models help both countries to improve relations?
Topic:
Energy Policy and Environment
Political Geography:
United States, Germany, and North America

54457. India's Reform Agenda: Micro, Meso and Macro Economic Reforms

Author:
Vijay L. Kelkar
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for the Advanced Study of India
Abstract:
During the 1990s, India has been among the fastest growing economies of the world. This year would be the third consecutive year when the real GDP growth is six percent or higher. This has been accompanied by exchange rate stability and a low inflation rate. For instance, currently, the underlying core inflation rate remains only three percent per annum. Are these trends of growth acceleration sustainable to meet India's two strategic objectives, which are eradication of poverty, and playing our rightful role in the world by becoming a source of growth and stability for the global economy? To analyze this, it is necessary to look at the Indian economy in a somewhat longer and global perspective. This is essential to identify the necessary policy reforms which are the topic of my lecture today, namely, India's Reform Agenda: Micro, Meso and Macro Economic Reforms.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

54458. CERI: Politics Behind The Mask: Studying Contemporary Carnivals in Political Perspective, Theoretical and Methodological Suggestions

Author:
Denis-Constant Martin
Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:
Carnivals are a type of rite of renewal where mask and laughter spur the invention of highly symbolic modes of expression. They offer opportunities for the study of social representations and, since they are both recurring and changing, they constitute a ground where not only social change can be assessed, but where the meanings of social change can be best understood. The first part of this paper reviews and discusses theories of carnival, in particular those related to its relationship to power and social hierarchies. The second part proposes a few methodological suggestions for the study of carnival from a political perspective, emphasizing semiotic analysis and surveys using non-directive methods.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Global Focus

54459. "Injustes" sanctions: les constructions internationales de la dénonciation des embargos et l'escalade de la vertu abolitionniste

Author:
Ariel Colonomos
Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:
At a time when the use of sanctions has intensified considerably, criticism directed at embargos is gaining ground. In interpreting this significant rise in opposition, this article shows how and why mobilization against sanctions has developed, what sort of actors are involved and what forms it takes. This research brings to light the formation of networks and coalitions against both unilateral and multilateral measures. It underlines the role, status and scope of those whose business it is to fashion norms, by questioning the main analytical categories their strategies are usually based on. An expertise in embargo assessment, destined to levy judgment on a type of very specific violence, is developing in both national and transnational public spaces. This research, analyzing the emergence of this expertise, sheds light on the development of a conception of unjust sanctions and identifies the mechanisms of its construction on an international scale. This text in particular underlines the importance of traditions of just war, especially their reinterpretation by actors on the international scene and its moral norm-makers. Considering the development of these standards allows us to grasp one of the most decisive aspects of the use of force in the post-cold war world, as well as the establishment of certain international reforms.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Cooperation, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Global Focus

54460. The Politics of Trade in North America: Comparing Models and Industries

Author:
Arturo Borja Tamayo, Philippe Faucher, Scott Morgenstern, and Daniel Nielson
Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
This working paper studies the negotiations of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in two industrial chains: textile-apparel and auto parts-automotive. It compares two theoretical models. The first uses two internal variables (interest group strength and industry competitiveness) to explain the tariffs that were negotiated for the phase-out period of NAFTA. The second explores alternatives to increase the explanatory capacity of two-level games models. It incorporates the element of asymmetry between countries, and questions Putnam's (1988) hypothesis on the impact of domestic politics upon international negotiations. This second model explains the difference in the rules of origin that were adopted in NAFTA for the two industrial chains. The work reaches three conclusions. First, it confirms the necessity to specify different dependent variables to explain the outcomes of international trade agreements. Second, it concludes that a model using the two-level logic has explanatory advantages over one that does not combine levels. Third, it points out the potential to combine elements from the two models to reach a more complete explanation.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
North America