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54442. Assessing Vulnerabilities to the Effects of Global Change: An Eight-Step Approach
- Author:
- Colin Polsky, Dagmar Schröter, and Marybeth Long Martello
- Publication Date:
- 06-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- There is a growing call among researchers interested in studying global change and associated effects on society and ecosystems to examine vulnerabilities as well as impacts. Such a move would require a renewed emphasis on the factors that constrain and enable coupled human - environment systems to adapt to stress. Although a picture is emerging of what general factors global change vulnerability assessments should address, it is less clear what methods are needed for this endeavor. This paper presents results from a workshop held in October 2002 to explore the issue of methods and models for vulnerability assessments. The results include an objective for global change vulnerability assessments, a set of five information criteria that vulnerability assessments should satisfy for achieving this objective, and a set of eight steps designed to satisfy those criteria. The proposed objective for global change vulnerability assessments is to inform the decision - making of specific stakeholders about options for adapting to the effects of global change. The five criteria for achieving the objective are that vulnerability assessments should: engage a flexible knowledge base, be place - based, consider multiple and interacting stresses, examine differential adaptive capacity between and within populations, and be prospective as well as historical. The eight steps for satisfying the criteria are: define the study area in tandem with stakeholders, get to know places over time, hypothesize who is vulnerable to what, develop a causal model of vulnerability, find indicators for the components of vulnerability, weight and combine the indicators, project future vulnerability, and communicate vulnerability creatively. We expect most readers to identify some of the steps as self - evident and part of their well - established disciplinary practices. However, most readers should also identify one or more steps as uncommon to their research traditions. Thus taken together the eight steps presented here constitute a novel methodological framework.
- Topic:
- Security, Environment, Human Welfare, and Treaties and Agreements
54443. A Changing of the Guard: The U.S. National Guard and Homeland Defense
- Author:
- Jay Smith
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Since the September 11 attacks, the federal government has undertaken a fundamental review of the U.S. defense priorities. The terrorist strikes against the World Trade Center and the Pentagon exposed the extraordinary vulnerability of the U.S. homeland that some had warned against over the last several years. There is now widespread agreement that the threat of terrorist attack against the United States is likely to be a long-term reality. Given this situation, the Bush administration's decision to reassess its policy on homeland security is wholly appropriate.
- Topic:
- Security and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States
54444. Africa's Discontent: Coping with Human and Natural Disasters
- Author:
- Robert I. Rotberg
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The inhabitants of tropical Africa in 2003 demand higher levels of performance from their governments than they could, or dared to do, in the 1970s and 1980s, a decade or two after independence from colonial rule. Nowadays they suffer despots reluctantly, as in Zimbabwe, deny them unconstitutional third terms, as in Malawi and Zambia (but not in Togo), gleefully vote for more promising rulers, as in Ghana and Kenya, or insist al- most everywhere on improved governing and government.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Environment, and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Kenya, Africa, Zambia, and Ghana
54445. Russia: Grasping Reality of Nuclear Terror
- Author:
- Simon Saradzhyan
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack against Russia is growing, as radical separatists in troubled Chechnya increasingly become more desperate, and security at many of Russia's civil nuclear facilities remains insufficient. They have already demonstrated their capability and willingness to inflict massive indiscriminate casualties by organizing an apartment bombing in the southern Russian city of Buinaksk. They have acquired radioactive materials, threatened to attack Russia's nuclear facilities, plotted to hijack a nuclear submarine, and have attempted to put pressure on the Russian leadership by planting a container with radioactive materials in Moscow and threatening to detonate it. These incidents occurred between 1994 and 1996, during Russia's first military campaign in Chechnya at a time when separatists were so overwhelmed and outmanned they believed that acts of terrorism employing nuclear, biological, and chemical (NBC) materials—if not weapons of mass destruction (WMD)—could be the only way to force Russian troops to retreat from Chechnya.
- Topic:
- Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
54446. Nuclear Conflicts of the Twenty-First Century
- Author:
- A.A. Kokoshin
- Publication Date:
- 02-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The author proceeds from the definition, that nuclear conflict is a situation involving one or more possessors of nuclear weapons, and in the course of which escalation reaches a level at which the practical possibility of using nuclear weapons begins to be considered. The higher phase of nuclear conflict means the use of nuclear weapons at various scales—from single nuclear explosions to the mass use of nuclear weapons.
- Topic:
- Security, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
54447. Haiti's Turmoil: Politics and Policy Under Aristide and Clinton
- Author:
- Robert I. Rotberg
- Publication Date:
- 01-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Haiti is small, poor, and badly governed. That has been the lot of Haitians from 1804 to 1990, despite an emperor, a clutch of dictators, the despotic rule of the Duvalier family, an American occupation, and a few well-meaning democratic rulers. For nearly two centuries, Haitians have been waiting for leaders who favor the national over narrow personal interest, who seek a sustained improvement in the national condition, and who put the needs and claims of ordinary Haitians first.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Migration
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, and Caribbean
54448. Prospects for U.S.-Russian Nonproliferation Cooperation Under Bush and Putin
- Author:
- Andrea Gabbitas
- Publication Date:
- 01-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Since September 11, the relationship between the United States and Russia has evolved significantly. At the Crawford summit in November 2001, President George W. Bush and President Vladimir V. Putin officially declared a “new relationship” between the United States and Russia. A significant portion of this new relationship has centered on nonproliferation matters, which have been declared a priority by both presidents. In fighting terrorist threats, Bush and Putin have “agreed to enhance bilateral and multilateral action to stem the export and proliferation of nuclear, chemical and biological materials, related technologies, and delivery systems as a critical component of the battle to defeat international terrorism.”
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia
54449. Building an Effective, Sustainable Partnership Between the Government and the Private Sector
- Author:
- James B. Steinberg and Gilman Louie
- Publication Date:
- 12-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- The challenge of preventing and responding to the new security threats is very different from the one we, as a nation, faced in the Cold War. Today, the private sector is on the frontline of the homeland security effort: Its members are holders of information that may prove crucial to thwarting terrorist attacks; stewards of critical infrastructure that must be protected and dangerous materials that could be used to do harm; and important actors in responding to attacks. As we said in our first Task Force report, private sector information is essential to counter-terrorism, and government agencies should have timely, needed access to that information, pursuant to guidelines that give confidence that the information will be used in a responsible way.
- Topic:
- Government, National Security, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States
54450. Metropolitan Magnets for International and Domestic Migrants
- Author:
- William H. Frey
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Hundreds of thousands of people move to the U.S. each year seeking a better life. Millions of Americans move to new locations within the U.S. each year for the same reason. The respective destinations of these two groups—immigrants and domestic migrants—shape the physical landscape, public service needs, business patterns, and political culture of our nation's metropolitan areas. For those reasons, international and domestic migration trends in the late 1990s, and how they shaped metropolitan growth dynamics, represent some of the most eagerly anticipated findings from U.S. Census 2000.
- Topic:
- Demographics and Migration
- Political Geography:
- United States
54451. Risks and Rights: The Causes, Consequences, and Challenges of Development-Induced Displacement
- Author:
- W. Courtland Robinson
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- While it may have as many meanings as people who invoke its name, development generally has positive, though perhaps ambiguous, connotations. Uneven development is a bad thing and sustainable development is a good thing but, for the most part, under- developed countries and communities seek to become more developed, whether that is through improving health and livelihoods, expanding educational opportunities, or building infrastructure. But, as the citations above suggest, development does not benefit everyone equally and for some—indeed, for millions of people around the world—development has cost them their homes, their livelihoods, their health, and even their very lives. The suffering of those displaced by development projects can be as severe, and the numbers as large, as those displaced either internally or internationally by conflict and violence. What follows is an examination of the often-overlooked phenomenon of development-induced displacement, its causes, consequences and challenges for the international community.
- Topic:
- Development, Human Welfare, and Migration
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Asia
54452. China and Southeast Asia: The Difference of a Decade
- Author:
- Catharin Dalpino and Juo-yu Lin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Over a span of several years, China's relations with the nations of Southeast Asia have shifted in quiet increments. The accumulated effect, however, has been profound. A concerted diplomatic effort to woo countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which now includes all countries in the region excepting East Timor, has reaped multiple benefits for Beijing. It is beginning to alter the political balance in the region as alignments with extra-regional powers are shifting, however subtly. In some aspects, the change is more dramatic. Economic relations have expanded rapidly; for example, trade between China and Southeast Asia is seventeen times larger today than it was twenty-five years ago.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China, Beijing, Asia, and Southeast Asia
54453. Cross-Strait Relations: A Time for Careful Management
- Author:
- Richard Bush
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- On the face of it, relations between China and Taiwan have improved significantly since the saber-rattling of 1999 and 2000. Economic relations have never been better. Two-way trade is around $40 billion annually, and the Mainland has become Taiwan's largest export market, displacing the United States. Taiwan companies continue to invest in the PRC at record rates, in order to keep their products competitive through cheaper Chinese labor. The product mix of Taiwan factories on the mainland is shifting from items like shoes and toys to high-end goods like semi-conductors and notebook computers. As machinery moves, so do people, and the number of Taiwan people living most of the time in the PRC is hundreds of thousands. With this growing economic interaction come shared interests and better mutual understanding. Neither side would benefit from conflict, and both know it. The chance of growing tensions seems low.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Taiwan, and Asia
54454. The Second Term of Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa: The Dual Problems of Performance and Capacity
- Author:
- Wilson Wong
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- In the more than five years since Hong Kong returned to Chinese sovereignty, it has suffered economical, social, and political decline. The root cause of this decline, and the key variable for the next five years, is institutional weakness. Specifically, the Hong Kong government must address the dual problems of poor performance and low capacity in order to reverse the decline and get Hong Kong back on track for economic growth and institutional development.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Asia
54455. Japanese Economic Stagnation: Still in Neutral
- Author:
- Edward Lincoln
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- One of the discouraging problems in Northeast Asia over the past decade has been the lengthy malaise in the Japanese economy and the inability of government, business, and the public to forge effective solutions. In the decade since 1992, the average annual real (inflation-adjusted) economic growth rate has been only one percent—positive but very low and punctuated by four recessions in which gross domestic product (GDP) fell for at least two consecutive quarters. The financial sector is weighed down under an enormous amount of non-performing loans that has only grown larger over time. Meanwhile, Japan has become the first industrial country since the 1930s to experience deflation—a decline in the overall price level.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, and Northeast Asia
54456. Chinese State, Chinese Society: Facing a New Century
- Author:
- Jae Ho Chung and Zhang Ye
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- The Sixteenth Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) was convened during November 8-15, 2002. The Congress reconfirmed the Party's strong commitment to the three key tasks of achieving modernization, accomplishing national unification, and safeguarding world peace and development. The outgoing CCP General Secretary Jiang Zemin, on behalf of the Fifteenth Central Committee, emphasized the need for further political changes at the grassroots and presented the target of quadrupling China's gross domestic product (GDP) by 2020. Jiang also projected that China's armed forces would possess fewer but better troops “ with Chinese characteristics. ”
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
54457. Crisis on the Korean Peninsula
- Author:
- Richard Bush, Dean Nowowiejski, and Tomatsu Nakano
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Most signs during the late summer and early fall of 2002 pointed to progress on the Korean peninsula. North Korean leader Kim Jong Il had finally grasped, it appeared, the need for international moderation and domestic reform. The United States seemed ready to respond in kind. But with the visit to Pyongyang in October of U.S. Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly – the first high-level contact since the Bush Administration came into office – the situation quickly unraveled. Instead of offering the “bold initiative” that was reportedly in the works, Kelly confronted his interlocutors with evidence that their government had mounted a new, clandestine uranium-based nuclear program. The North Koreans refused to disavow the program and insisted on their right to nuclear weapons. Kelly responded that the United States would not engage the DPRK unless and until it abandoned the program. The status of the 1994 U.S.-DPRK Agreed Framework, which had capped North Korea's plutonium-based program in return for international assistance in meeting its civilian energy needs, was uncertain at best. The Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO), the mechanism for providing that aid, stopped heavy fuel oil shipments to North Korea at the end of 2002 at American insistence.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Asia, Korea, and Sinai Peninsula
54458. Brookings Northeast Asia Survey, 2002-03
- Author:
- Catharin Dalpino and Richard Bush
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- This is the third edition of the Northeast Asian Survey, sponsored by the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies of the Brookings Institution. Following this review of developments in the region during 2002, the bulk of the volume is composed of essays that provide mid-term perspectives on internal dynamics in China, Hong Kong, and Japan, on the crisis on the Korean peninsula, and on relations between China and Taiwan and on China and Southeast Asia. All the authors have been affiliated with the Brookings Institution during the 2002-03 year. Most were CNAPS Visiting Fellows or Brookings Federal Executive Fellows.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, Asia, Southeast Asia, Hong Kong, and Northeast Asia
54459. Protecting the American Homeland: One Year On
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Since the attacks of September 11, 2001, a good deal has been done to improve the safety of Americans, not only in the offensive war on terror abroad but in protecting the homeland as well. Now aware of the harm terrorists can inflict, Americans are on alert, providing a first, crucial line of defense. Air travel is much safer. Intelligence sharing has improved, especially information about specific individuals suspected of ties to terrorism. Measures have been taken to ensure that suspicious ships entering U.S. waters are screened more frequently. Some early steps, with more to follow, have been taken to reduce the country's exposure to biological attacks, and oversight has been tightened on labs working with biological materials. Terrorism insurance is now backstopped by a new federal program. Certain types of major infrastructure, such as well-known bridges and tunnels and nuclear reactors, are protected by police and National Guard forces when terrorism alerts suggest that such measures are necessary.
- Topic:
- Security and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, and Arabia
54460. A View from the Arab World: A Survey in Five Countries
- Author:
- Shibley Telhami
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Under the sponsorship of the Sadat Chair for Peace and Development at the University of Maryland, Shibley Telhami prepared a public opinion survey for Zogby International, which interviewed 2,620 men and women in Egypt, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon and Jordan. The survey was conducted between February 19 and March 11. It focuses on perceptions of the United States in specific political scenarios and on views of United States policy abroad. Previous polls done by Shibley Telhami and by Zogby International in the Middle East showed that neither United States policy nor the United States was viewed favorably.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Egypt, Jordan, and Morocco