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54361. Non-custodial sentencing and its relevance in the justice system

Author:
Sandra Coffie
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Ghana Center for Democratic Development
Abstract:
In Ghana, sentencing policy has ensured that courts place more emphasis on custodial sentences than on other forms of punishment: for most, if not all, criminal convictions, Ghanaian courts impose custodial sentences as a matter of course. As a result, Ghana's prisons now contain more inmates than they were ever intended to - stretching prison facilities beyond capacity. Prison officials persistently complain of dangerous overcrowding. Social workers warn that some inmates have simply been forgotten, and many accused persons languish in pre- trial detention while their cases are pending. Rather than serving as places of reform, prisons have become a training ground for seasoned thugs.
Topic:
Criminal Justice and Justice
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

54362. Democratic Transitions

Author:
David Epstein, Robert Bates, Jack A. Goldstone, Kristian Søby Kristensen, and Sharyn O'Halloran
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Recent studies of democratization, most importantly Przeworski, Alvarez, Cheibub, Limongi, 2000 (PACL), question the modernization hypothesis that richer countries are more likely to be democratic. PACL claim instead that transitions to democracy are unpredictable, but once there, countries can remain democratic with higher levels of GDP per capita. We retest this hypothesis using an expanded data set and a three-way, rather than two-way, categorization of regimes: autocracies, partial democracies, and full democracies. We find that the modernization theory does hold up well, contrary to PACL’s findings: greater levels of prosperity do predict when countries are likely to leave autocracy and stay fully democratic. Partial democracies, on the other hand, emerge as the most volatile and least predictable category of regimes. We also find considerable support for Acemoglu and Robinson’s (2002) theories on inequality and transitions. Our analysis highlights the need to better understand the workings of partial, or unconsolidated, democracies, as these are also the countries most likely to enter external wars or fall prey to internal failure.
Topic:
Democratization, Governance, Democracy, Economy, Economic Growth, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Africa

54363. Sustainable Development in Ijebu-Ode, Nigeria: The Role of Social Capital, Participation, and Science and Technology

Author:
Akin L. Mabogunje and Robert W. Kates
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Sustainable development as an aspiration is global; as an ongoing process, it is local. A growing number of scientists and technologists share in the aspiration and experiment with the local. Here we report one such effort in Ijebu-Ode, a small city of 200,000 inhabitants in south-west Nigeria, which, through a participatory city consultation process chose to reduce poverty through a set of local and sustainable livelihood activities. Now four years into the effort, we describe the setting, the participatory process, the poverty reduction activities, and the impressive results to date. We attribute the success to date to the large stock of social capital, the participatory process that drew upon this stock, and the scientific and technological community that both serve as boundary spanners to link Ijebu-Ode to the national and the global and as a resource for local technologies and advice.
Topic:
Development, Science and Technology, Sustainability, Participation, and Social Capital
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

54364. The Impact of the Crisis - Decline and Recovery

Author:
Joseph J. Stern
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
When the Asian financial crisis broke in mid-1997, the expectation was that Indonesia would weather the crisis with minimal damage. Actual events soon proved these expectations widely wrong and the Indonesian economy was more severely affected than other Asian countries. In part this outcome reflected Indonesia's fundamental institutional weakness that had been overlooked in the euphoria that marked international financial markets during the 1990s, and in part the impact of the financial crisis was magnified by inconsistent internal policies and by an overly ambitious IMF program that tried to achieve too much in to short a period of time. The result was not only a severe economic contraction with rising poverty levels and growing social unrest, but a political change that resulted, in the short-run, in further economic instability and effectively delayed Indonesia's recovery.
Topic:
Politics, Financial Crisis, Banks, Currency, IMF, and Economic Recovery
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Asia, and Southeast Asia

54365. Framing the Fundamental Issues of Sustainable Development in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Akin L. Mabogunje
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper frames the fundamental issues of sustainable development in sub-Saharan Africa. The paper begins by considering the general problems of development in sub-Saharan Africa and then frames the issues as the maintenance or enhancement of the region's capital stocks. It describes the integration of the region into the global capitalist economy and considers how to integrate science and technology into the development culture of the region through greater concern with social learning. A concluding section reflects on the imperative of a new value and cultural orientation if sub-Saharan Africa is to meet the Millennium Development Goals of the United Nations and those of the New Partnership for Africa's Development articulated by African governments themselves.
Topic:
Globalization, Science and Technology, Sustainable Development Goals, Social Capital, and Knowledge Systems
Political Geography:
Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

54366. Tough Policies, Incredible Policies

Author:
Alejandro Neut and Andrés Velasco
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
We revisit the question of what determines the credibility of macroeconomic policies here, of promises to repay public debt. The literature has focused on governments. strategic decision to default (or erode the value of outstanding debt via inflation/devaluation). It has also focused on increasing policymakers. utility costs as a way to deter strategic misbehavior. By contrast, we build a model in which default or inflation can occur deliberately (for strategic reasons) or unavoidably (shocks leave no other option). In addition, when it does occur, default or inflation entail pecuniary costs, not just utility costs for the policymaker. In the model with these two features, much conventional wisdom on the determinants of credibility need no longer hold. Tough policies such a as appointing a conservative policymaker, indexing public debt or denominating public debt in foreign currency may reduce, not increase, the credibility of vows to repay debt in full. For some parameter values, these tough policies may also reduce welfare.
Topic:
Debt, Crisis Management, Macroeconomics, Currency, Credibility, and Commitment
Political Geography:
Global Focus

54367. Monetary Policy and the Currency Denomination of Debt: A Tale of Two Equilibria

Author:
Roberto Chang and Andrés Velasco
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Exchange rate policies depend on portfolio choices, and portfolio choices depend on anticipated exchange rate policies. This opens the door to multiple equilibria in policy regimes. We construct a model in which agents optimally choose to denominate their assets and liabilities either in domestic or in foreign currency. The monetary authority optimally chooses to float or to fix the currency, after portfolios have been chosen. We identify conditions under which both fixing and floating are equilibrium policies: if agents expect fixing and arrange their portfolios accordingly, the monetary authority validates that expectation; the same happens if agents initially expect floating. We also show that a flexible exchange rate Pareto-dominates a fixed one. It follows that social welfare would rise if the monetary authority could precommit to floating.
Topic:
Debt, Monetary Policy, Exchange Rate Policy, and Currency
Political Geography:
Global Focus

54368. Institutions and Development

Author:
Robert H. Bates, Avner Greif, Macartan Humphreys, and Smita Singh
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper addresses the political foundations for economic development in Africa and does so by exploring two basic themes: political accountability and political order. We say that political elites are accountable when, in order to retain office, they must employ power to serve the interests of those whom they rule. By political order we mean the extent to which people employ coercion to protect property rights rather than to trespass upon them. Where there is accountability, many hold, then those with power make policies that enhance the welfare of private citizens, as by rendering them more prosperous (e.g. World Bank 1991). And where there is political order, then there is security for property rights, rendering it in the interests of private agents to invest, to labor, and to generate higher levels of income (North and Thomas 1973). The paper provides data about the trajectory of political reform and political order in contemporary Africa and their significance for the behavior of governments. It demonstrates the limited impact of political reform upon public policy, documents the relationship between reform and conflict, and posits the existence of a political "trap" that limits Africa’s development.
Topic:
Development, Political Economy, Economic Growth, Accountability, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Africa

54369. Indian Higher Education Reform: From Half-Baked Socialism to Half-Baked Capitalism

Author:
Devesh Kapur and Pratap Bhanu Mehta
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper examines the political economy of Indian higher (tertiary) education. We first provide an empirical mapping of Indian higher education and demonstrate that higher education in India is being de facto privatized on a massive scale. But this privatization is not a result of changing ideological commitments of the key actors—the state, the judiciary or India’s propertied classes. Rather, this privatization has resulted from a breakdown of the state system and an exit of Indian elites from public institutions, to both private sector institutions within the country as well as abroad. Private philanthropy in higher education, which was supportive of public institutions in the past, is also increasingly withdrawing its support. Consequently the ideological and institutional underpinnings of this form of privatization remain exceedingly weak. The paper questions the extent to which the political economy of Indian higher education can be explained by the hypothesis of “middle class capture” and suggests that education policy, far from serving the interests of the middle class, is actually driven by a combination of ideology and vested interests. We also examine the role of the judiciary in shaping the regulatory landscape of Indian higher education and argue that it an important actor shaping the regulatory landscape of higher education, but in a manner that has done as much to confuse as clarify. Instead of being part of a comprehensive program of education reform, private initiatives remain hostage to the discretionary actions of the state. As a result, the education system remains suspended between over-regulation by the state on the one hand, and a discretionary privatization that is unable to mobilize private capital in productive ways. The result is a sub-optimal structuring of higher education. The most potent consequence of this is a secession of the middle class—ironically the very class whose interests these institutions were supposed to serve—from a stake in public institutions.
Topic:
Political Economy, Privatization, Capitalism, Higher Education, and Middle Class
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

54370. Incentives to Learn

Author:
Michael Kremer, Edward Miguel, and Rebecca Thornton
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
We report results from a randomized evaluation of a merit scholarship program for adolescent girls in Kenya. Girls who scored well on academic exams had their school fees paid and received a cash grant for school supplies. Girls eligible for the scholarship showed significant gains in academic exam scores (average gain 0.12-0.19 standard deviations) and these gains persisted following the competition. There is also evidence of positive program externalities on learning: boys, who were ineligible for the awards, also showed sizeable average test gains, as did girls with low pretest scores, who were unlikely to win. Both student and teacher school attendance increased in the program schools. We discuss implications both for understanding the nature of educational production functions and for the policy debate surrounding merit scholarships.
Topic:
Education, Human Capital, Girls, and Scholarships
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

54371. Probing the Sources of Political Order

Author:
Robert H. Bates
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
As noted by Hobbes, political order makes possible the good things of life. It constitutes the political foundations for development. Motivated by the theory of the state and qualitative materials from Africa, this paper develops a model of the foundations of political order, which it then tests on data from 46 African countries over the period 1970-1995.
Topic:
Development, Political Economy, Conflict, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Africa

54372. Why is There No AIDS Vaccine?

Author:
Michael Kremer and Christopher M. Snyder
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
We argue that differences in timing of drug and vaccine consumption will lead firms to be biased against developing vaccines. Vaccines are sold before consumers are infected, when they still have private information regarding their infection risk, whereas drugs are sold after consumers are infected, when those with positive valuation have no private information on infection risk. Calibrations suggest that, for sexually transmitted diseases, for which infection risk is highly heterogeneous across consumers, producer surplus from drugs may exceed that from vaccines by a factor of four. Consistent with the model, empirical tests suggest vaccines are particularly unlikely to be developed for sexually transmitted diseases. Biases against vaccines are exacerbated by the durability of vaccines and by the interaction between the timing of vaccine and drug consumption and the temporary protection of intellectual property rights. We extend the analysis to allow for government procurement and for income heterogeneity among consumers. Given that antiretroviral drugs are difficult to deliver in the poor countries where most people infected with HIV/AIDS live, biases against developing a vaccine raise enormous public health concerns.
Topic:
HIV/AIDS, Health, Public Health, and Vaccine
Political Geography:
Global Focus

54373. The Illusion of Sustainability

Author:
Michael Kremer and Edward Miguel
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Rather than provide development assistance indefinitely, foreign aid donors increasingly seek to help communities sustainably provide local public goods themselves. We examine various strategies for sustainably fighting intestinal worms through voluntary local mobilization. Intestinal worms affect one in four people worldwide, but can be controlled by taking medicine twice annually. Since much of the resulting treatment benefit comes through reduced disease transmission, standard public finance analysis provides a rationale for subsidized treatment. Randomized evaluations suggest several efforts to replace subsidies with sustainable worm control measures were ineffective. A drug cost recovery program reduced take-up by 80%. A mobilization intervention designed to boost drug take up failed. Health education did not affect behavior. People were less likely to take drugs if randomly exposed to more information through their social network. In this context, using external interventions to promote sustainable voluntary provision of local public goods (like worm control) appears unrealistic.
Topic:
Sustainable Development Goals, Sustainability, Cost Sharing, Social Learning, and Cost Recovery
Political Geography:
Africa

54374. Sustainability Values, Attitudes, and Behaviors: A Review of Multi-national and Global Trends

Author:
Anthony A. Leiserowitz, Robert W. Kates, and Thomas M. Parris
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
This review analyzes five efforts to define sustainability values, including the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, the Earth Charter, the UN Millennium Declaration, and the Global Scenario Group. It then summarizes empirical trends in sustainability values, attitudes, and behaviors, as measured by multi-national and global-scale surveys, related to human and economic development, the environment, and driving forces (population, affluence, technology, and entitlements). The review also summarizes empirical trends related to the values identified by the Millennium Declaration as essential to international relations (e.g., freedom and democracy, equality and shared responsibility), and broader contextual values (e.g., capitalism, globalization, institutional trust, and social change) that have sustainability implications. It then identifies several important attitude-behavior gaps and barriers. Finally this review draws several conclusions regarding future research needs and the value, attitude, and behavioral change needed to achieve sustainability.
Topic:
Environment, Poverty, Science and Technology, Population, Sustainable Development Goals, and Survey
Political Geography:
Global Focus

54375. Turkish Debt 1990-2002: How Did We Get Here

Author:
Caroline Van Rijckeghem
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
In the first year of Turkey’s currency crisis, Turkish public debt increased from what was then a “reasonable” level, to one that was judged to be unsustainable by a wide array of observers. As we went to print in late 2004, public debt, as a percent of national income, had significantly fallen, thanks to fiscal austerity, strong growth, and appreciation of the lira, but it was still above its pre-currency crisis levels, and the debate on public debt lived on. How did Turkish debt increase in the 1990s, and in the immediate aftermath of the crisis? What were the key drivers of this build-up? What lessons were to be drawn from the experience? These are the questions that were being asked regarding the nature of this dramatic experience when the project first took off in early 2003, and are still a matter of great interest now. In fact, debt dynamics was already worrisome before the currency crisis, and had been on a sharp upward trend since the early 1990s. We attempted to resolve whether debt accumulation was due to fiscal profligacy or rather high real interest rates. Interestingly, primary balances of the public sector, other than in the early 1990s, were not very large. This suggested to us two possible reasons for the increase in debt: concealed deficits and high real interest rates. Each of these explanations too, had it’s own camp of adherents. The paper endeavored to decompose, as precisely as possible given the data limitations, the increase in the stock of debt into its most relevant components, namely primary deficits from each public sector component, concealed deficits, valuation effects, and real interest payments. The project took off in late 2002/early 2003, under the leadership of Şerif Sayin, the Director of TESEV. Murat Űçer of Eurosource Turkey guided the project in its initial stages, suggesting, for instance, the study of both the micro and macro aspects of what we named in the paper “debt-generating processes”, and provided feedback throughout. He also edited parts of the paper and contributed to the executive summary. Izak Atiyas of Sabanci University, one of our peer reviewers, made substantial contributions, in particular in the section on duty losses. He, along with Şerif Sayin, and most notably Ferhat Emil, author of the accompanying paper “Kamu Borcu Nasıl Oluştu ? Bu Noktaya Nasıl Gelindi ?” and TESEV program director, helped to interpret the initial results and to incorporate the relevant Turkish institutional aspects into the paper. Hakan Yilmaz, author of the accompanying paper and SPO expert, and Zafer Yukseler of the Central Bank of Turkey, one of our peer reviewers, also provided comments that helped clarify the nature of the Turkish data. We also received feedback from a number of colleagues, academics as well as market economists in a seminar held on the topic. Information for the project was obtained from published official and IMF sources, as well as in a series of meeting with various departments of the Treasury.
Topic:
Debt, Economy, Accountability, and Transparency
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

54376. The Debate on Democratization in the Broader Middle East and North Africa

Author:
Ayşe Kadıoğlu, Burak Akçapar, Meliha Benli Altunisik, and Mensur Akgün
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
This paper represents the views of four individuals with academic backgrounds in social sciences who are familiar with the new dynamics of world politics as well as the language and practice of democratization. The authors of the paper are convinced that there is need for change in the direction of democratization in the Broader Middle East and North Africa (BMENA) region. Rejection of this need is unrealistic. A dilemma in the recent debates of democratization and reform in the BMENA is that the US, the very country that pushed the initiative for democratization to the forefront, suffers from a tide of anti-Americanism in the Middle East. The sights of torture of Iraqi prisoners further heightened anti-Americanism in the region to unprecedented levels. Such an environment hinders the legitimate discussion of democratization in the BMENA. However, the need for democratization in the region is obvious and increasingly appreciated, and thus should be assessed on its own merits.
Topic:
Democratization, Politics, Reform, and Civic Engagement
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and North Africa

54377. Developing a New Euro-Atlantic Strategy for the Black Sea Region

Author:
Ronald D. Asmus
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
A series of historically unprecedented events have brought the attention of the West to the wider Black Sea region—that area including the littoral states of the Black Sea, Moldova, and the Southern Caucasus countries of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. An area that has heretofore been neglected by the Euro-Atlantic community is now starting to move from the periphery to the center of Western attention. Why has the West heretofore lacked such a strategy for the Black Sea region in the past and what has changed to make one so critical now? Four main factors explain the past lack of interest.
Topic:
NATO, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Black Sea

54378. Capacity Building in Post-Conflict Countries in Africa: A Summary of Lessons of Experience from Mozambique, Rwanda, Sierra Leone and Uganda

Author:
The African Capacity Building Foundation
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF)
Abstract:
The paper presents a Summary of a Report of a Study on Reconstruction and Capacity Building efforts in four Post-Conflict African Countries, namely, Mozambique, Rwanda, Sierra Leone and Uganda. The main objective of the study is to draw lessons that could provide a guide to policies, strategies and instruments for post-conflict capacity-building initiatives by the Foundation. The four country studies highlighted the fact that the root causes of conflicts are different in different countries at different times and that they require context-specific approaches to bring countries back onto the path of peace and development.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Reconstruction, Peace, Post-Conflict, and Capacity Building
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, and Rwanda

54379. Rethinking Rural Livelihoods in Afghanistan

Author:
Jo Grace and Adam Pain
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
Abstract:
This synthesis report presents the findings of the first 18 months of research from AREU’s Rural Livelihoods Monitoring Research Programme. The project gathered village and household information from 390 households across seven provinces with an aim to improve the understanding of rural livelihoods in Afghanistan and the monitoring and evaluation capacity of NGOs. The report offers conclusions and recommendations regarding: livelihoods diversity, non-farm labour, labour migration, indebtedness, gender, health, agriculture and social protection.
Topic:
Agriculture, Gender Issues, Health, NGOs, Rural, and Labor Rights
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Middle East

54380. Looking for Peace on the Pastures: Rural Land Relations in Afghanistan

Author:
Liz Alden Wily
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
Abstract:
This paper synthesises the lessons learned from a study of land tenure relations in Bamiyan, Badakhshan and Faryab Provinces. It also offers recommendations on how to move forward from the existing muddle of land policy and law to engage in "learning by doing" projects aimed at mitigating conflict on communal land.
Topic:
Law, Rural, Land, and Community
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Middle East