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54301. Israel's New Sharon Government

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The formation of a national unity government in Israel today, by a vote 72 to 21, is a triumph for Ariel Sharon. First, he seized the initiative. After his landslide victory a few weeks ago, Sharon did not engage in classic Israeli bargaining tactics in dealing with his Labor Party rivals, but rather caught the defeated and divided party off balance by immediately offering them top cabinet positions in the desire to cement a unity government. Sharon was not intoxicated by the breadth of his victory, but rather followed through on his campaign commitment. Sharon realizes that it is also good politics. According to Gallup's poll taken last week, the Israeli public favors the establishment of such a government by an overwhelming 79 to 14 margin.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

54302. Assessing Powell's Trip To Israel And The Palestinian Territories

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
While the main purpose of Secretary of State Colin Powell's first foray into the Middle East was to discuss Iraq, he also visited Israel and the Palestinian Authority and injected a dose of what some would call "evenhandedness" — giving each both something to be pleased about and something to be unnerved about.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

54303. Intifada 2000 -- The Foggy Bottom Version: A Review Of The Human Rights Report

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Five months after the outbreak of the Palestinian uprising, the U.S. government yesterday issued its first systematic assessment of the intifada-related actions of Israelis and Palestinians in the form of the State Department's Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for the year 2000. A close reading of the twenty-four page chapter on "the Occupied Territories (including areas subject to the jurisdiction of the Palestinian Authority)" reveals numerous condemnations of the actions of Israeli and Palestinian security forces, in almost identical language, with the latter also criticized for its abuses against fellow Palestinians. However, the report also displays a disturbing trend toward selective and distorted reporting on key issues, with the effect of minimizing egregious Palestinian behavior and enhancing the image of Israeli culpability.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Ethnic Conflict, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

54304. Inside Palestinian Politics: Preparing For Israel Under Sharon

Author:
David Schenker
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As Ariel Sharon prepares to take power following his landslide victory, significant changes are also underway in the Palestinian Authority (PA). In anticipation of Sharon's victory, the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) and leading PA personalities have been preparing a new political agenda to deal with the apparent end of "final status" negotiations and the new Israeli leadership. The most provocative event in recent days has been the issuance of a document — penned by a senior PLO official and longtime associate of PA Ra'is (Chairman) Yasir Arafat — which raises the specter that mainstream Palestinian politics are publicly reverting to the radicalism of pre-Oslo days.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

54305. Sharon's Victory: Implications For The Peace Process And U.S. Policy

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The Israeli people spoke in the most dramatic and convincing fashion. Viewed in the U.S. context, Ariel Sharon won a larger share of the vote — 62.5 percent — than any presidential candidate in history. Essentially, Israel voted to express one word: "enough!" — enough violence, enough concessions, enough perception of weakness. They were particularly voting against Barak, both personally and against the policies that characterized his government (dating not only to Camp David but as far back as the earliest days of his cabinet). Certainly, much of yesterday's vote was against Barak more than it was a vote for Sharon; just as Barak's 1999 landslide was less a vote for him than it was a vote against Bibi Netanyahu; just as Netanyahu's 1996 squeaker was less a vote for him than it was a vote against Shimon Peres. Now it's Sharon's turn.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Israel

54306. Behind A Looming Sharon Victory

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The deadline has now passed for Ehud Barak to step aside in favor of rival Shimon Peres in Israel's prime ministerial face-off next Tuesday, February 6, against Likud leader MK Ariel Sharon. Analysts have already written off this election for Barak, as Sharon's lead in the polls has barely budged from a 16 to 20 point margin over the last two months. Given that Barak won a landslide victory by a 12.1 percent margin less than two years ago, the scope of his probable defeat is striking — perhaps the most lopsided electoral debacle since Menachem Begin's Herut lost to the Labor forerunner Mapai in 1959 by a margin of 24.7 percent. Barak's electoral free-fall is especially remarkable given that his opponent is someone long regarded as unelectable, due to his advanced age, right-wing political views, checkered past, and evident discomfort with the new media age. Nevertheless, Barak has pressed on, insisting that the real campaign has only just begun. His decision to stay in the race has heightened speculation that he may plan on joining a Sharon-led "national unity government," despite carefully worded protestations to the contrary.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

54307. Special Policy Forum Report; Imagining A Likud Foreign Policy

Author:
Dore Gold
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
February marks ten years since the end of the Gulf War. The situation in the Middle East today is vastly more dangerous than in 1991. The favorable regional conditions in 1991 that allowed the current peace process to begin have been reversed. Three key trends are the following: After Iraq's defeat in the Gulf War, it was placed under UN monitoring and extensive sanctions, thereby removing a major threat from Israel's calculus. Today, the situation is drastically different, with the absence of UN inspections for more than two years and the deterioration of sanctions against Iraq. In 1991, Iran was still recovering from its exhaustive war with Iraq and could not fully participate in regional, specifically Arab–Israeli, affairs. By contrast, Iran is currently testing intermediate-range missiles and is expressing its strategic weight in places like Lebanon, where it has increased its support to Hizballah. In 1991, the USSR was crumbling before its eventual collapse and was no longer in a position to offer strategic and military support to the enemies of Israel, while its successor — the Russian Federation — has more or less acquiesced to U.S. positions on the Middle East. Since 1996, however, Russia has taken a contrary approach to many U.S. policies and leadership in the region, in particular with regard to Iraqi sanctions and weapons inspections and the transfer of missile technology to Iran.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Foreign Policy, Peace Studies, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Iraq, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Lebanon

54308. Time Running Out On Clinton Proposals

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Meetings this week between Israeli and Palestinian security and political personnel notwithstanding, time has virtually run out for any Israeli–Palestinian peace deal. It is important to note that the issue is not just one of time, even though President Clinton leaves office next Saturday. Top Clinton Administration officials have made clear that the Palestinians have engaged in "delays" since the December 23 ideas were tabled. Seeking to avoid the international disapproval that mushroomed in the wake of last summer's failed Camp David summit, Yasir Arafat came to Washington with an apparent "yes, but" view of the proposals. However, this approach seems clearly to be little more than a public-relations tactic.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Migration, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

54309. Special Policy Forum Report; Inside Clinton's Peace Proposals: A Textual Analysis

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
While the White House has made no comment on the substance of President Bill Clinton's proposal for Israeli-Palestinian peace, the Israeli newspaper Haaretz and the Palestinian Jerusalem Media and Communication Center (JMCC) have published what they say are respectively the Israeli and Palestinian minutes of the president's December 23 oral presentation. What is striking is that the two accounts agree on every substantive point. These accounts provide a sound basis for knowing what in fact Clinton proposed.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Jerusalem

54310. From Bilateralism To Internationalization: Security Implications Of The U.S. Bridging Proposals

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
With President Clinton due to meet Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat today for a last-ditch diplomatic effort, attention is focused mainly on two aspects of the U.S. bridging proposals: the division of Jerusalem and the future status of Palestinian refugees. In contrast, little attention has so far been devoted to the security aspects of the U.S. proposals. While less emotive, security issues need to be central to U.S. concerns about the viability of any "final status" accord and its impact on U.S. interests and allies. It is difficult, however, to assess this aspect of the proposals because so many key security issues were evidently not raised by the President in his pre-Christmas oral presentation to the two sides. They may have been the subject of previous or subsequent discussions among the parties, but they were not on the President's core agenda.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Palestine

54311. Explaining Leakage of Public Funds

Author:
Ritva Reinikka and Jakob Svensson
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Using panel data from an unique survey of public primary schools in Uganda we assess the degree of leakage of public funds in education. The survey data reveal that on average, during the period 1991-95, schools received only 13 percent of what the central government contributed to the schools' non-wage expenditures. The bulk of the allocated spending was either used by public officials for purposes unrelated to education or captured for private gain (leakage). Moreover we find that resource flows and leakages are endogenous to school characteristics. Rather than being passive recipients of flows from government, schools use their bargaining power vis-à-vis other parts of government to secure greater shares of funding. Resources are therefore not necessarily allocated according to the rules underlying government budget decisions, with potential equity and efficiency implications.
Topic:
Education, Government, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

54312. On the Choice of Appropriate Development Strategy: Insights from CGE Modelling of the Mozambican Economy

Author:
Finn Tarp and Tarp Jensen Henning
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper makes use of a 1997 computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to analyse three potential strategies that Mozambique can pursue unilaterally with a view to initiating a sustainable development process. They include (i) an agriculture-first strategy, (ii) an agricultural-development led industrialization (ADLI) strategy, and (iii) a primary-sector export-oriented strategy. The ADLI strategy dominates the other development strategies since important synergy effects in aggregate welfare arise from including key agro-industry sectors into the agriculture-first development strategy. Moreover, the ADLI strategy can be designed so it has a relatively strong impact on the welfare of the poorest poverty-stricken households, and still maintain the politically sensitive factorial distribution of income.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Africa

54313. Building Conflict Prevention Capacity: Methods, Experiences, Needs — UNU Workshop Seminar Series Report

Author:
David Carment and Albrecht Schnabel
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Our collaboration began in early 1998, as a proposal for a two-panel mini-workshop on conflict prevention for the 1999 International Studies Association meeting in Washington, DC, USA. The project has subsequently developed into a multi-year project with two book-length volumes and various dissemination activities.
Topic:
Security, Peace Studies, and United Nations
Political Geography:
United States and Washington

54314. China And US Foreign Policy In The Asia-Pacific: Living With American Dominance

Author:
Mike Smith and Nicholas Khoo
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Since the end of the Second World War, US foreign policy towards the Asia-Pacific has been characterized by the assertion of American dominance. To this end, policy-makers in Washington have adopted a varied policy towards China. From 1950 to 1972, the US pursued a containment policy designed to thwart the revolutionary goals of Maoist foreign policy. Beginning with Nixon's rapprochement with Beijing in 1972, US policy was dramatically altered to meet the overriding goal of deterring the Soviet threat. The US and China actively cooperated to contain Soviet and Vietnamese influence in Northeast and Southeast Asia. The end of the Cold War, preceded shortly before by the Tiananmen massacre, saw another shift in the US position, whereby China was no longer looked upon with favour in Washington. Acting on his presidential campaign promises not to repeat George Bush Senior's policy of 'coddling dictators'in Beijing, President Clinton initially enacted a policy that explicitly linked China's human rights record to the renewal of most favoured- nation trade status with the US. When this linkage failed, a striking policy reversal occurred as the Clinton administration adopted an unrestrained engagement policy in which it eventually underplayed Sino-US differences in the spheres of trade, human rights, and strategic-military ties.
Topic:
Security and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
United States, China, America, Washington, Beijing, and Asia

54315. Ratifying The Kyoto Protocol: The Case For Japanese­Russian Joint Implementation

Author:
Benito Müller
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
In direct reaction to President Bush's speedy reneging on a campaign pledge to set 'mandatory reduction targets' for carbon dioxide emissions from power generation (a mere 53 days into his presidency), Rainer Hinrichs-Rahlwes, Director General of the German Environment Ministry, admitted that 'maybe it will be necessary to ratify the Protocol without the US and to instead pave the way for them to join later'. Since then, this sentiment has been rapidly gaining ground internationally, in particular after President Bush unilaterally declared the failure of the Kyoto Protocol. Indeed, at a meeting in Kiruna (Sweden) on 31 March 2001, EU environment ministers pledged to pursue ratification of the treaty with or without the United States. Environment minister Kjell Larsson, for the Swedish Presidency, stated that 'the Kyoto Protocol is alive, contrary to what has been said from the other side of the Atlantic. No individual country has the right to declare a multilateral agreement dead.'
Topic:
Environment, International Law, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Russia, Japan, and Israel

54316. European Security And Defence Policy After Nice

Author:
Terry Terriff, Mark Webber, Stuart Croft, and Jolyon Howorth
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The Nice Summit will best be remembered for the eponymous treaty, designed to make the necessary institutional reforms to allow the European Union to enlarge, but progress in the sphere of security and defence is no less significant. Following changes that began at St Malo in 1998, the EU member states demonstrated their willingness to share the security burden with the United States. However, this apparently positive move has been greeted with caution at best, hostility at worst in the US, where the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP) is sometimes portrayed as a threat to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). What has enabled the EU to produce a common policy on security and defence after decades of failure? What are the prospects for ESDP? What are the implications for the Atlantic Alliance?
Topic:
Security and NATO
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

54317. From Rio To Johannesburg:The Earth Summit And Rio + 10

Author:
Duncan Brack, Fanny Calder, and Muge Dolun
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) – the 'Earth Summit' – took place in Rio de Janeiro, in 1992. Unprecedented in size and scope, Rio resulted in a number of important agreements including Agenda 21, two new conventions and the foundation of the UN Commission on Sustainable Development. Among these Agenda 21 has a particularly important role in defining sustainable development and providing a blueprint for change. Within the next two years the world will be preparing for the tenth-year review of the Rio Conference, which will lead to the World Summit on Sustainable Development – 'Rio+10'.
Topic:
Environment, International Law, and Science and Technology

54318. Governing Multinationals: The Role Of Foreign Direct Liability

Author:
Halina Ward
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The business of global governance is set to become one of the key international policy issues of the twenty-first century. The governance of global business is one of the most difficult action points in this agenda. New issues are still emerging, not least among them a discussion on whether there is a need for tougher transnational regulation of multinational corporations. This Briefing Paper outlines the implications of one way of enforcing corporate environmental, social and human rights standards across borders: 'foreign direct liability'.
Topic:
International Law, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance

54319. Environmental Security In Central Asia

Author:
Stuart Horsman
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The summer of 2000 witnessed a drought that decimated crops throughout Central Asia. Previously, Kazakhstan's President Nursultan Nazarbayev raised the spectre of water-inspired insecurity in Central Asia, and in March an OSCE delegation visited the Central Asian republics to discuss water management issues.
Topic:
Security, Environment, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Kazakhstan and Asia

54320. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: December 2001

Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased by 1.2 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased by 0.1 percent in December.The increase in the leading index in December is the largest gain since February of 1996. With this month's gain, the leading index has increased for three consecutive months bringing the index level above the pre-recession peak.The leading index continues to be driven by the expansionary monetary policy initiatives of the Federal Reserve. This is further strengthened by a rebound in the employment and expectations components in recent months.The coincident index's gain this month is the first in five months. This, coupled with a robust leading index, indicates that the economy, barring any unexpected shock, is gathering momentum.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States