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54222. Is China "Exporting Deflation"?
- Author:
- Steven B. Kamin, Mario Marazzi, and John W. Schindler
- Publication Date:
- 01-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- In the past few years, observers increasingly have pointed to China as a source of downward pressure on global prices. This paper evaluates the theoretical and empirical evidence bearing on the question of whether China's buoyant export growth has led to significant changes in the inflation performance of its trading partners. This evidence suggests that the impact of Chinese exports on global prices has been, while non-negligible, fairly modest. On a priori grounds, our theoretical analysis suggests that China's economy is still too small relative to the world economy to have much effect on global inflation: a back-of-the-envelope calculation puts that effect at about 1/3 percentage point in recent years. In terms of the empirical evidence, we identify a statistically significant effect of U.S. imports from China on U.S. import prices, but given the size of this effect and the relatively low share of imports in U.S. GDP, the ultimate impact on the U.S. consumer prices has likely been quite small. Moreover, imports from China had little apparent effect on U.S. producer prices. Finally, using a multi-country database of trade transactions, we estimate that since 1993, Chinese exports lowered annual import inflation in a large set of economies by 1/4 percentage point or less on average, similar to the prediction of our theoretical model.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
54223. Defense Industrial Base Capabilities Study: Battlespace Awareness
- Publication Date:
- 01-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- In February 2003, the Office of the Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Industrial Policy, ODUSD(IP), produced Transforming the Defense Industrial Base: A Roadmap. This report identified the need for systematic evaluation of the ability of the defense industrial base to develop and provide functional, operational effects-based warfighting capabilities. The Defense Industrial Base Capabilities Study (DIBCS) series begins a systematic assessment of critical technologies and industrial capabilities needed in the 21st century defense industrial base to meet warfighter requirements as framed by the Joint Staff's Functional Concepts and Joint Operational Architecture. The DIBCS series ties directly to warfighter needs by linking industrial base capabilities to warfighter capabilities derived from the Functional Concepts. This report addresses the first of those functional concepts, Battlespace Awareness.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Industrial Policy, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
54224. Cash Flows and Discount Rates, Industry and Country Effects, and Co-Movement in Stock Returns
- Author:
- John Ammer and Jon Wongswan
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the relative importance of global, country-specific, and industry-specific factors in both the cash flow and discount rate components of equity returns between 1995 and 2003. Our framework draws upon previously separate literatures on country versus industry effects and (forward-looking) cash flow versus discount rate components of equity return innovations. We apply the Campbell (1991) decomposition for industry-by-country, all-country, global industry, and world market index returns so we can produce a richer characterization of same-industry and same-country effects in stock returns. Unlike previous equity return decomposition papers, we exploit information in equity analysts' earnings forecasts when projecting future variables from our reduced-form equation systems. Our findings confirm previous research that finds patterns of correlation that suggest a richer underlying structure than just a single common global factor. Furthermore, our results suggest that global, within-country, and same-industry effects are all important for both of the two key components of stock returns: news about future dividends and news about future discount rates. In particular, within-industry covariation in news about future discount rates appears to be just as important as within-country covariation in news about future discount rates. We also find that the idiosyncratic component of cash flow news is more important than the global component, while the reverse is true for news about future discount rates. Our results are broadly consistent with co-movement in future discount rates arising from perceptions of common elements of risk, rather than national market segmentation.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
54225. Health Crisis: HIV/AIDS in Developing World Cities
- Author:
- Martin Caceres
- Publication Date:
- 06-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Wilson Center
- Abstract:
- Developing countries' urban areas are at the core of the HIV/AIDS epidemic. The normal functioning of urban areas, their societies, and institutions can be severely disrupted by a high prevalence of HIV/AIDS. This environment provides both a high potential for the spread of the disease and unique opportunities to fight and contain it.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Health, and Human Welfare
54226. Reframing Urban Assistance: Scale, Ambition, and Possibility
- Author:
- Michael A. Cohen
- Publication Date:
- 02-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Wilson Center
- Abstract:
- In the early 1990s, Annick Osmont, a French anthropologist, wrote a book entitled La Banque Mondiale et des Villes. She analyzed the design and impact of World Bank–assisted projects in several West African countries—Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, and Senega—all of which I had worked with. She concluded that the World Bank's macroeconomic adjustment policies had had a greater impact on the cities and urban populations in those countries than the urban slum upgrading projects financed by the Bank.When I first read this book, I was angry and convinced she was wrong. How could she be so dismissive of the “good intentions and work” that those projects represented? Five years later, I agreed.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, and Poverty
54227. Perspectives on Urban Poverty in Latin America
- Author:
- Craig Fagan
- Publication Date:
- 02-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Wilson Center
- Abstract:
- Urban issues and poverty in Latin America are an integral part of any policy debate on the region. With nearly 90% of its diverse population and 50% of its poor residing in cities, effective and efficient solutions to the problems of poverty are imperative to respond to the increasing demographic and economic pressures placed on Latin America's limited social resources.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Development, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- South America and Latin America
54228. The Role of the Central Public Market in a Twenty-first Century Metropolis
- Author:
- Maria Elena Ducci
- Publication Date:
- 02-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Wilson Center
- Abstract:
- This paper is designed to provoke discussion on the pros and cons of maintaining a public market in the center of a city such as Santiago, a metropolis of over 5 million inhabitants with serious air pollution and traffic problems.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Development, Economics, and Markets
54229. US-Mexico Border Control in a Changing Economic and Security Context
- Author:
- Peter Andreas
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Wilson Center
- Abstract:
- Although far from Washington and Mexico City, it is perhaps only a slight exaggeration to say that U.S.-Mexico relations begin and end at their shared 1,933-mile-long border. Indeed, the degree of harmony or conflict in the relationship increasingly depends on how the border and border control matters are politically managed. The border is both one of the busiest and one of the most heavily policed territorial lines in the world, where many of the most critical and sensitive issues in the bilateral relationship, such as trade, migration, and drug trafficking, come together. In fact, much of U.S. policy toward Mexico has been driven by the twin objectives of facilitating authorized border crossings and deterring unauthorized crossings. Balancing these tasks has always been politically and bureaucratically frustrating and cumbersome, but both the challenge and the stakes have grown substantially as counterterrorism has been added to and redefined the border control agenda since September 11, 2001.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Washington, and Mexico
54230. Privatization in Brcko District: Why It Is Different and Why It Works
- Author:
- Henry L. Clarke
- Publication Date:
- 01-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Wilson Center
- Abstract:
- The Brcko District of Bosnia and Herzegovina is small, with less than 100,000 people. In 2001, about 30 public companies were selected for privatization. At the outset, there were good reasons to ask whether the District would have any success in privatizing them. Many of the public companies had been shut down for up to ten years, while the rest were operating at a small fraction of their pre-1991 output. There was not a single company that was profitable enough to be sold successfully on the basis of its performance, none had adequate working capital or marketing arrangements, many were deeply in debt, some had too many nonworking “employees” and the equipment of most companies that was not damaged during the war was worn out or obsolete.
- Topic:
- Debt, Government, Politics, and Privatization
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Bosnia, and Herzegovina
54231. The Presidential Crisis in Lithuania: Its Roots and the Russian Factor
- Author:
- Richard J. Krickus
- Publication Date:
- 01-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Wilson Center
- Abstract:
- The purpose of this paper is to address two questions associated with Lithuania's political crisis in 2004. First, what were the domestic circumstances that led to the impeachment of Lithuania's President, Rolandas Paksas? Second, what evidence is there that Russia has played a significant role in the crisis and what are the motives behind Moscow's meddling in Lithuania's internal affairs? Answers to these questions are pertinent to the fate of countries throughout post-communist Europe, given their common history and geography. In addition, they provide the framework for addressing a third question that must be answered by the European Union (EU), NATO and the United States: what can be done about these two-fold threats to the newest members of the Western alliance?
- Topic:
- Democratization, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Lithuania, and Moscow
54232. Women, Muslim Laws and Human Rights in Nigeria
- Author:
- Ayesha Imam
- Publication Date:
- 02-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Wilson Center
- Abstract:
- An Introduction from Directors Howard Wolpe and Haleh Esfandiari: This past September, the Woodrow Wilson International Center's Africa and Middle East Programs co-sponsored a forum on Women, Islam and Human Rights in Africa.At the forum, a notable keynote address was presented by the distinguished feminist scholar, Ayesha Imam, coordinator of the Nigerian women's rights organization, BAOBOB.We believe that Dr. Imam's remarks, presented in the form of responses to queries posed by Woodrow Wilson Fellow and forum organizer, Mary Osirim, deserve a wider audience. Dr. Imam's address becomes the second in a series of WWICS Africa Program Occasional Papers. A report on the September 17, 2003 forum can be found on the WWICS website, www.wilsoncenter.org.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Human Rights, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Africa
54233. Moving Toward Dialogue: Challenges in Canada - U.S. Energy Trade
- Author:
- Paul Ziff and Daniel Yergin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Wilson Center
- Abstract:
- Moving Toward Dialogue: Challenges in Canada-U.S. Energy Trade is the second publication in our new One Issue,Two Voices series. Using expertise from both sides of the Canada–U.S. border, this series is our contribution to dialogue on policy issues relevant to the bilateral relationship. We look at energy in this paper, specifically the issue of infrastructure and cooperation in the delivery of energy resources across the 49th parallel. Our authors, Daniel Yergin and Michael Zenker of Cambridge Energy Research Associates (Cambridge and Washington) and Paul Ziff of Ziff Energy Group (Calgary) are wellknown experts on energy issues who have agreed to share their opinions on this important aspect of the energy trade.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Energy Policy, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- North America
54234. Decision Time: Water Diversion Policy in the Great Lakes Basin
- Author:
- Ralph Pentland and Jim Olson
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Wilson Center
- Abstract:
- Decision Time:Water Diversion Policy in the Great Lakes is the first publication in our One Issue,Two Voices series. Using expertise from both sides of the Canada–U.S. border, this series is our contribution to dialogue on policy issues relevant to the bilateral relationship. In this first paper, the issue is “water,” specifically the developing policy on diversions from the Great Lakes. Our two authors are leading experts on the Great Lakes, who have willingly entered the debate to share their informed opinions.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Regional Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- North America
54235. Making Doha a Developmental Round: What do the Developing Countries Want?
- Author:
- William Krist
- Publication Date:
- 01-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Wilson Center
- Abstract:
- This report was prepared by William Krist, a Senior Policy Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center's Environmental Change and Security Project (ECSP). Mr. Krist is working on issues relating to trade and sustainable development. Before becoming a Woodrow Wilson scholar, Mr. Krist was senior vice president at the American Electronics Association, and prior to that, he had been Assistant Trade Representative for Industry in the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. He has an MA in economics from George Washington University, and a BA from Swarthmore College.The Environmental Change and Security Project (ECSP) has been committed to exploration of the connections between environment, population and security since 1994. Through its meetings, its publications, its comprehensive Web site, and the original research carried out by its staff and scholars, ECSP serves as an information clearinghouse. ECSP is directed by Geoffrey D. Dabelko and is housed in the Wilson Center's Division of International Studies, headed by Robert S. Litwak.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Third World
- Political Geography:
- United States
54236. Japan's Constitution and Defense Policy: Entering a New Era?
- Author:
- Rust Deming
- Publication Date:
- 11-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- Japan's postwar defense policy was set by the 1947 constitution. Early in the occupation, General Douglas MacArthur and his staff concluded that the 19th-century Meiji constitution needed to be revised or entirely replaced if Japan were to become a true democracy, with the Emperor removed from any political role. In January 1946, convinced that the elitist and authoritarian Japanese establishment was incapable of producing a democratic constitution, MacArthur ordered his staff to produce a draft. One week later, an entirely rewritten constitution emerged and was presented to the Japanese. Included in the draft was Article IX: War as a sovereign right of the nation is abolished. The threat or use of force is forever renounced as a means of settling disputes with any other nation. No Army, Navy, Air Force, or other war potential will ever be authorized and no right of belligerency will ever be conferred upon the state.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, International Cooperation, and International Law
- Political Geography:
- Japan
54237. Apocalyptic Terrorism: The Case for Preventive Action
- Author:
- Joseph McMillan
- Publication Date:
- 11-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The nature and capabilities of 21st-century terrorists, especially those such as al Qaeda and its allies who pursue an apocalyptic agenda, make it essential that governments can take decisive preventive action, including the use of force, rather than waiting to respond to attacks after the fact. In certain circumstances, this means being able to conduct military operations on the territory of foreign countries without their consent.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, International Law, and Terrorism
54238. Eliminating Adversary WMD: Lessons for Future Conflicts
- Author:
- Rebecca K.C. Hersman and Todd M. Koca
- Publication Date:
- 10-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- As tensions between Iraq and the United States worsened in mid-to-late 2002 and as preparations began for Operation Iraqi Freedom, policymakers and military planners began to wrestle with the challenges posed by Iraqi weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Indeed, Iraqi defiance and deception in the face of United Nations (UN) sanctions, coupled with growing fears of WMD transfer to terrorist organizations—most prominently al Qaeda—were two primary reasons for confronting Saddam Hussein. Just as in the first Gulf War in 1991, deterring and defending against possible Iraqi use of WMD against coalition forces were key concerns for planners. However, as the crisis escalated in 2002, Department of Defense (DOD) planners began to foresee another challenge: how to remove comprehensively and permanently the threat of Iraqi WMD, not just to U.S. troops but also to the Middle East region and the world.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, and Middle East
54239. Shaping U.S. Policy on Africa: Pillars of a New Strategy
- Author:
- Johnnie Carson
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- In the four decades since most African states achieved independence, the continent has never been a foreign policy priority for the United States. During the early years of American engagement with Africa, Washington focused its attention on preventing communist countries from gaining major military bases or monopolistic concessions over any of the continent's important strategic minerals. Although the United States provided large amounts of development assistance and food aid to a number of African states, most American interest and support was directed toward African countries and leaders who were regarded as Cold War allies. In those countries still struggling for independence, the United States usually supported African insurgents who were pro-Western and anticommunist in their orientation. In South Africa and Namibia, Washington generally professed great sympathy for eventual majority rule and independence but largely supported the status quo out of fear that liberation groups allied with the Soviet Union or China would win power in any political transition.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, China, America, Washington, and Soviet Union
54240. Deploying Missile Defense: Major Operational Challenges
- Author:
- M. Elaine Bunn
- Publication Date:
- 08-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- If all goes according to plan, by the end of 2004, the United States will deploy eight groundbased midcourse defense (GMD) interceptors1 in Alaska and California, along with land-, sea-, and space-based sensors and the command and control systems to support the interceptors. By the end of 2005, 12 more GMD interceptors will be added, along with additional sensors and interceptor missiles on Navy ships.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- California