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54201. Philippines — Macapagal-Arroyo Elevation

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Newly inaugurated President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo installed herself in Manila's Malacanang presidential palace on January 22. Macapagal-Arroyo's elevation from vice-president to president represents the culmination of a long campaign by opposition politicians and civic figures to unseat Joseph Estrada from the presidency. While Macapagal-Arroyo's administrative style is likely to differ markedly from her predecessor, her accession also represents the return to political prominence of elite groups closely associated with the presidencies of Corazon Aquino and Fidel Ramos. The ouster of Estrada significantly diminishes the political and economic uncertainty and instability which has plagued the country for several months. However, as the euphoria of 'people power' fades, factional politics within the new administration, and the regrouping of pro-Estrada forces in a new opposition, are likely to present Macapagal-Arroyo with significant challenges.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Philippines and Southeast Asia

54202. Middle East — Arafat Manoeuvres

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Senior Palestinian officials this week rejected US President Bill Clinton's peace proposals. All the Palestinian factions have now rejected the proposals designed to end the conflict with Israel. This is a sign of the overwhelming domestic pressure Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat is under. However, his position remains one of conditional acceptance as he awaits further US interpretations and clarifications. Arafat's conditional acceptance of the US proposals is an attempt to improve his diplomatic position. He hopes to make use of the enhanced Arab engagement in the Palestinian-Israeli peace process to improve on the terms of a future peace agreement. This will be essential if he is to win domestic approval of any deal.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

54203. CIAO: Russia: Weimar Analogy

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Striking parallels exist between post-Soviet Russia and Weimar Germany (1918-33) with regard to their international position, socio-economic conditions, sense of defeat and humiliation, and political situation. The analogy implies that a fascist regime is likely to come to power in Russia. However, the underlying causes of economic distress, the structure of the political system, and the cultural context in post-Soviet Russia and Weimar Germany also differ. Thus, contemporary Russia has weak fascist movements. The regime that emerges will probably be authoritarian and nationalist in character, and may to some extent exhibit fascist tendencies, but is very unlikely to be fully fascist in the classical sense.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia and Germany

54204. United States — 'Plan Colombia'

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Congressional criticism of 'Plan Colombia's' military component, and the advent of a new administration in Washington, are likely to lead to a strategic review of US policy. The outcome may be a policy that is less military focused, more regionally oriented, and based on closer cooperation with other aid donors. It has become increasingly clear that Plan Colombia can only be implemented if the EU and its member states are prepared to increase their financial contribution. This will give the Europeans considerable leverage, and they are likely to use it to insist on a less militarised approach. However, even with a change in policy emphasis, the prospects of success will remain poor.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Colombia, and South America

54205. Africa Policy Outlook 2001

Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Policy Information Center
Abstract:
By the end of the year 2000, a peace treaty between Ethiopia and Eritrea, peaceful transfers of power after elections in Senegal and Ghana, and continued growth of public debate about the future in almost every African country were among signs of advance in a year that was more than usually short of good news. Economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa was estimated to climb to 2.7 percent for the year, up from 2.1 percent in 1999. Per capita income in the region south of the Sahara rose by an estimated two tenths of one percent. The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced debt reduction packages of $34 billion for 22 countries, including 18 in Africa.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Debt, Development, Diplomacy, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, Senegal, Eritrea, and Ghana

54206. Creating an Environment: Developing Venture Capital in India

Author:
Rafiq Dossani and Martin Kenney
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
In the last decade, one of the most admired institutions among industrialists and economic policymakers around the world has been the U.S. venture capital industry. A recent OECD (2000) report identified venture capital as a critical component for the success of entrepreneurial high-technology firms and recommended that all nations consider strategies for encouraging the availability of venture capital. With such admiration and encouragement from prestigious international organizations has come various attempts to create an indigenous venture capital industry. This article examines the efforts to create a venture capital industry in India.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
United States, South Asia, and India

54207. Foreign Direct Investment in New Electricity Generating Capacity in Developing Asia: Stakeholders, Risks, and the Search for a New Paradigm

Author:
Robert Thomas Crow
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
The rate of investment sufficient to provide developing Asia with a reasonably adequate supply of electricity is immense, ranging from a World Bank estimate of 2000 megawatts (MW) each month (which translates into an annual investment of about $35 billion per year) to even higher estimates. All of the larger countries of developing Asia have been looking for foreign direct investment (FDI) to provide a significant amount of the needed capital. In 1996, financial closings for new power projects in developing Asia reached $13.7 billion, or almost 40 percent of the lower range of the estimated requirement. Although data on the foreign share of the monetary value of financial closings is not available, it is likely to be over 80 percent. Thus, the foreign share of total direct investment in power projects in developing Asia appeared to have been around 30 percent before the East Asian currency crisis.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
East Asia and Asia

54208. The India-China Relationship: What the United States Needs to Know

Author:
Justin Sommers and Rapporteur
Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and the Asia Society are pleased to present the report of our conference entitled “The India-China Relationship: What the United States Needs to Know,” which took place in Washington, D.C., on November 30, 2001. The conference, engaging experts and policymakers both in and out of government, was one phase in a larger joint project of the two organizations that will result in a scholarly volume.
Topic:
Diplomacy and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, China, South Asia, Washington, India, and Asia

54209. American Journalism in Transition: A View at the Top

Author:
Amy Korzick Garmer
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
American journalism is in the midst of a transition unlike any other it has experienced in the 225-year history of the republic. Like other societal institutions, news organizations must contend with a variety of forces that are upsetting the status quo and shaping new business and cultural environments. These forces include advances in technology, demographic shifts and the changing interests of consumers, changing government regulations, market consolidation, and globalization, to name a few. The convergence of these market and cultural phenomena and the relentless advance of the information revolution have rocked the comfortably familiar culture of journalism.
Topic:
Globalization, Industrial Policy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States and America

54210. Sustaining Media Pluralism in Democratizing Societies

Author:
Craig L. LaMay
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
In 1974 a global "third wave" of democratization began when a military coup in Portugal ended the dictatorship of Antonio Salazar, who himself had come to power in a military coup in 1926. Over the course of the succeeding 15 years, about 30 countries changed from various forms of nondemocratic regimes to nominally democratic ones, most dramatically in South America and Central and Eastern Europe. During this period, notable transitions from nondemocratic rule also occurred in Africa and Asia.
Topic:
Industrial Policy and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, South America, and Portugal

54211. Reinventing Minority Media for the 21st Century

Author:
América Rodriguez
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
For the fourth year, the Aspen Institute gathered together policy analysts, industry leaders, and academics to discuss the present state—and the future—of U.S. media that is produced purposefully and strategically for U.S. minority communities. These media, which range from small weekly newspapers in Filipino communities in Northern California to transnational corporations such as Univision (Univisión) which serves the Hispanic community, were the centerpiece of a lively exchange at the Aspen Institute in Aspen, Colorado, July 13-15, 2000.
Topic:
Industrial Policy and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States, California, and Colorado

54212. Journalism and Emerging Democracy: Lessons from Societies in Transition

Author:
Craig L. LaMay
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
The post-Cold War period has presented an opportunity unmatched since the end of World War II to restructure the media systems of much of the world. Free of political repression or ideological constraint, media in developing and developed nations have had the opportunity to ask: Consistent with democratic principles, what should a media system look like? And more specifically for countries emerging from authoritarian rule, what news media practices promote democratization?
Topic:
Cold War, Industrial Policy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

54213. Transition to an IP Environment

Author:
Robert M. Entman
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
This year's Aspen Institute Conference on Telecommunications Policy began as an attempt to chart a future in which packet-based Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) will supplant traditional switched circuit telephony. Among other things, VoIP appears to be propelling the marginal cost of long-distance telephoning toward zero, a development with profound implications for interexchange carriers. However, prompted in part by Lawrence Strickling's specially-commissioned piece, “The Telecommunications Marketplace in 2002: A Somewhat Fanciful Scenario,” it did not take long for conference participants to realize that a great deal more than the future profitability of long-distance service is at stake.
Topic:
Climate Change, Industrial Policy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

54214. Uncharted Territory: New Frontiers of Digital Innovation

Author:
David Bollier
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Now that the heady first paroxysms of electronic commerce (e-commerce) have faded—and the online sector has experienced its first major shake-out—thinking about what it means to live in a digital economy is becoming more focused. Established businesses are becoming more strategic in exploiting digital technologies. Venture capitalists are becoming more discriminating in their investments. Governments at all levels are exploring how to integrate the Internet and other technologies to advance their missions.
Topic:
Industrial Policy and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

54215. Democratizing U.S. Trade Policy

Author:
Pat Choate and Bruce Stokes
Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Storm clouds signaling trouble with American trade policy have been gathering for some time. In the early 1990s, Congress barely approved creation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), and only strenuous efforts by the Clinton administration and the business community ensured passage of legislation creating the World Trade Organization (WTO). In the late 1990s, President Clinton twice failed to obtain congressional renewal of his trade-negotiating authority. The massive demonstrations during the meeting of the world's trade ministers in Seattle in 1999 reflected a widespread public unease with the impact of trade policy on a range of issues, from clear-cutting practices in the forests of Indonesia to the price of AIDS drugs in southern Africa. Today, public opinion polls consistently demonstrate that, although the American public supports freer trade in theory, it often has profound reservations about trade liberalization in practice. And the current global economic slowdown may only further polarize public opinion on trade issues.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Indonesia, South America, and North America

54216. The United States and Southeast Asia: A Policy Agenda for the New Administration

Author:
Robert A. Manning and J. Robert Kerrey
Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Southeast Asia presents the United States with both an important challenge and an opportunity. American leadership and enlightened action in Southeast Asia in the critical period ahead will almost certainly help stabilize a region undergoing troubling political and economic turbulence. Absent our leadership, democratizing states may founder and economic conditions in a majority of the region's countries will likely worsen. It is in the interest of the people of the United States that we choose the first course. The July 1997 collapse of the Thai baht, which triggered a regional crisis that threatened to destabilize world financial markets, was a chilling reminder of Southeast Asia's importance; the 1999 East Timor crisis is another tragic event that caught the United States unprepared. The 1990–91 Cambodia peace process, on the other hand, was a sterling example of how American leadership can make a difference. We believe the new administration has an opportunity for a fresh start to shape a coherent, proactive approach to the region. As Secretary of State Colin Powell prepares for his visit to the area during the July meeting of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), and as the administration considers President Bush's first trip to Asia for the October summit of the leaders of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation group (APEC) in Shanghai, this is a timely moment to review the situation in Southeast Asia.
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and Southeast Asia

54217. Strategic Energy Policy Challenges for the 21st Century

Author:
Edward L. Morse and Amy Myers Jaffe
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
For many decades the United States has not had a comprehensive energy policy. Now, the consequences of this complacency have revealed themselves in California. Now, there could be more California-like situations in America's future. President George W. Bush and his administration need to tell these agonizing truths to the American people and lay the basis for a comprehensive, long-term U.S. energy security policy.
Political Geography:
America and California

54218. State Department Reform

Author:
Frank C. Carlucci and Ian J. Brzezinski
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Language should designate State Department renewal as one of your top priorities and present your initiative as the next stage of a bipartisan reform process already initiated by Congress. A paragraph in this speech would serve as an invaluable tool to the secretary of state in his efforts to win necessary legislative support and to overcome bureaucratic inertia and resistance.

54219. U.S.-Cuban Relations in the 21st Century: A Follow-On Chairman's Report

Author:
Julia Sweig and Walter Mead
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
In the last quarter of 1998, following the visit to Cuba of Pope John Paul II, the Council on Foreign Relations convened an Independent Task Force to assess U.S. policy toward Cuba in the post–Cold War era. The Task Force represents a bipartisan group of former State Department officials, congressional staff, labor leaders, and students of Latin American affairs and U.S. foreign policy from a cross section of think tanks, academic and religious institutions, businesses, trade unions, and government agencies. In a chairman's report issued in January 1999, the Task Force recommended a number of steps to strengthen civil society in Cuba, expand people-to-people contact between Cubans and Americans, and “contribute to rapid, peaceful, democratic transition in Cuba while safeguarding the vital interests of the United States.”
Political Geography:
United States and Cuba

54220. The Declining Use of Unskilled Labour in Italian Manufacturing: Is Trade to Blame?

Author:
Paul Brenton and Anna Maria Pinna
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
As in other industrialised countries, the manufacturing sector in Italy has recently experienced a substantial increase in the use of skilled relative to unskilled workers — skill upgrading. In this paper we estimate a model, based upon the notion of outsourcing, of the relative demand for skilled labour which allows identification of the roles of technological change and trade, the two main culprits, in skill upgrading. Compared to previous studies of Italy the model is applied to highly disaggregated industrial data and in addition the impact of trade is more precisely measured through the separate identification of import flows from low-wage labour abundant countries and those from OECD partners. Furthermore we also introduce a measure of trade variability. Our results show firstly that economic variables played little or no role in determining the relative demand for unskilled workers in the 1970s in Italy, reflecting the nature of Italian labour market institutions in the period. Subsequently, in the 1980s and 1990s, following some labour market reforms, we find that international competition, in terms of import penetration and the variability of trade prices, had a significant effect on the relative demand for blue-collar workers in Italy in skilled intensive sectors. In unskilled intensive sectors, such as textiles and clothing, where the impact of imports from low-wage countries might be expected to be more pronounced, we do not find a significant effect from imports but rather that the most important role has been played by technological change. The result is consistent with previous studies that indicate that Italian textile and clothing firms have remained internationally competitive by increasingly switching to high quality segments of the industry.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Migration, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy