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54022. Darfur Rising: Sudan's New Crisis
- Publication Date:
- 03-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Sudan, where prospects for peace had looked so promising for much of 2003, has become a potential horror story in 2004. The rapid onset of war in its western region of Darfur has created one of the world's worst humanitarian crises -- thousands dead and some 830,000 uprooted from homes. Meanwhile, the IGAD (Intergovernmental Authority for Development) peace talks in Naivasha, Kenya between the government and the insurgent Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLA) threaten to deadlock. It is urgent that these talks succeed and that, simultaneously, a parallel process begins to address both the humanitarian and political crises in Darfur.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Human Rights, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Kenya, Africa, and Sudan
54023. Taiwan Strait IV: How an Ultimate Political Settlement Might Look
- Publication Date:
- 02-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Each side's most preferred solution for resolving the continuing Taiwan Strait issue – in the case of Taipei, widely recognised de jure independence; and in the case of Beijing, reunification of China on the same 'one country, two systems' basis as Hong Kong – are both non-starters. Neither society is likely to accommodate the other or change to the degree necessary to make either option realistically achievable, even ten or fifteen years down the road. If the risk of conflict across the Taiwan Strait – too serious to be accepted with equanimity, as the tensions of the last few months have shown – is to be reduced, then there has to be new thinking about what an ultimate political settlement might look like, and how to get there.
- Topic:
- Government, Politics, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, Taiwan, Beijing, East Asia, and Hong Kong
54024. Nepal: Dangerous Plans for Village Militias
- Publication Date:
- 02-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Government of Nepal is creating local civilian militias – known as Rural Volunteer Security Groups and Peace Committees – in what risks becoming an alarming escalation of its conflict with Maoist rebels. Civilian militias are likely to become an untrained, unaccountable and undisciplined armed force that worsens a conflict that has already taken almost 9,000 lives. The scheme is controversial, and the government has publicly denied that it has already started distributing weapons despite evidence that it is indeed going ahead.
- Topic:
- Government, Politics, and War
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and Nepal
54025. Indonesia Backgrounder: Jihad in Central Sulawesi
- Publication Date:
- 02-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Recent violence in Poso (Central Sulawesi) suggests a need to revise assessments about the nature and gravity of the terrorist threat in Indonesia. While the shorter term prospects are somewhat encouraging, there is an under appreciated longer term security risk.
- Topic:
- Government, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia and Southeast Asia
54026. Pan-Albanianism: How Big A Threat To Balkan Stability?
- Publication Date:
- 02-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Pan-Albanianism is seen by many observers as a serious threat to Balkan stability. A century of shifting borders has left ethnic Albanians scattered across Kosovo, Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia and Greece. The Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA), the National Liberation Army (NLA) in Macedonia, and other groups have all waged campaigns of violence in support of enhanced rights for ethnic Albanians. Where is the ceiling to their ambitions?
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia, Greece, Kosovo, Serbia, Balkans, Macedonia, Albania, and Montenegro
54027. Syria Under Bashar (I): Foreign Policy Challenges
- Publication Date:
- 02-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Since the end of the Iraq war, Washington and Damascus have been locked in a dialogue of the deaf. U.S. policy has been reduced to a series of demands and threats. Syrian policy, with President Bashar still struggling to formulate and implement a coherent strategy, has been mainly wait-and-see – offering a few concessions and hoping to weather the storm while refusing to relinquish what it sees as trump cards (support for Hizbollah and radical Palestinian groups) so long as the conflict with Israel continues. Despite the current deadlock, however, the current regional situation presents an opportunity for an intensive, U.S.-led diplomatic effort to revive the Israeli-Syrian peace process and thereby achieve significant changes in Syrian policy.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Politics, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Washington, Israel, Arabia, and Syria
54028. Syria Under Bashar (II): Domestic Policy Challenges
- Publication Date:
- 02-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Bashar al-Assad's presidency has failed to live up to the hopes for far-reaching domestic reform that greeted it in 2000. After a brief opening, Syria clamped down on dissent, and economic change remains painfully slow. Many who once viewed Bashar as a potential partner, open-minded, and Western-oriented, now perceive him as, if anything, more ideological than and just as tied to the Baathist regime as his father. Both assessments are overly simplistic and poor guides to dealing with a Syria that is at a crossroads. Syrian officials hint at significant steps in mid-2004, including possible changes in the Baath Party hierarchy and doctrine and moves toward a more open and inclusive political system. Scepticism is in order, as such pledges have repeatedly been made in the past only to be ignored. But with reform now a strategic imperative, Syria should turn hints into reality and the international community should find ways to encourage and to assist it.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Development, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Arabia and Syria
54029. Palestinian Refugees and the Politics of Peacemaking
- Publication Date:
- 02-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- When Israeli-Palestinian permanent status negotiations resume, a key stumbling block is likely to be the Palestinian refugee question. The plight of the refugees and the demand that their right of return be recognised has been central to the Palestinian struggle since the 1948 Arab-Israeli War. Palestinians warn that a dissatisfied, angry refugee community whose core demands remain unmet could undermine any peace agreement. For their part, Israelis reject any significant return of refugees, which would spell the end of the Jewish state. They suggest that the issue has been kept artificially alive by the Palestinian leadership and Arab states; improvements in the desultory living conditions of camp refugees coupled with substantial resettlement plans in host or third countries could, they argue, dilute the intensity of the demand for return.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Migration, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Israel, Palestine, and Arabia
54030. Unfulfilled Promises: Pakistan's Failure to Tackle Extremism
- Publication Date:
- 01-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- It has been more than two years since President and Chief of Army Staff Pervez Musharraf pledged to reform Pakistani society by reversing the trend of Islamist extremism. In a televised speech, he promised a series of measures to combat extremism. One of the key issues was to bring all madrasas – the religious schools that educate many Pakistani children – into the mainstream and to increase scrutiny of them by controlling funding and curriculum.
- Topic:
- Education, Government, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan and South Asia
54031. Dealing With Hamas
- Publication Date:
- 01-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The escalating cycle of Israeli-Palestinian military confrontation since September 2000, the breakdown in mutual trust and continued suicide bombings by the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) – the most recent on 14 January 2004 – have returned the problem of how to deal with Hamas to the centre of the Israeli-Palestinian political and diplomatic equation.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Israel, Palestine, and Arabia
54032. Monitoring the Northern Ireland Ceasefires: Lessons from the Balkans
- Publication Date:
- 01-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- This briefing compares the mandate of the Independent Monitoring Commission for Northern Ireland (IMC) with those of two recent European examples of the monitoring and enforcement of compliance with peace agreements: the unsuccessful Kosovo Verification Mission (KVM) of 1998-1999, and the much more fruitful mission of the Office of the High Representative (OHR) in Bosnia and Herzegovina since 1995. It attempts to identify lessons from those earlier experiences that may help the IMC carry out its mission in the context of carrying forward the Good Friday peace process.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Bosnia, Herzegovina, Kosovo, and North Ireland
54033. Rebuilding Liberia: Prospects and Perils
- Publication Date:
- 01-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Liberia is a collapsed state that has become in effect a UN protectorate. Whether its political and economic reconstruction can begin depends on how quickly security spreads throughout the country. Squabbles over jobs by leaders of the armed factions have caused near-paralysis in the transitional government. Faction leaders tried to block disarmament until they received more jobs, boding ill for the peace process. The display of cynicism and greed by fighters and political leaders alike has undermined international confidence ahead of the donors' conference that meets in New York, 5-6 February 2004.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- New York and Liberia
54034. International Organizations and Security Issues: An American Perspective
- Author:
- J. Matthew Vaccaro
- Publication Date:
- 03-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- This memo outlines the perspectives of US foreign policy practioners concerning the role of international organizations in managing security issues. The memo is based on contemporary literature, numerous interviews with current and former US foreign policy practioners, and the views of the author, a former practioner. The author argues that an instrumental perspective of international organizations prevails among practioners regardless of the party-affiliation of the Administration. He concludes by proposing a methodology that can be used to understand and predict US participation within international organizations on security matters.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United States
54035. Road to Ruin: Afghanistan's Booming Opium Industry
- Author:
- Barnett Rubin
- Publication Date:
- 10-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- President George W. Bush declared recently that “the people of Afghanistan are now free.” While the president boasts, Afghanistan's opium industry, which fosters terrorism, violence, debt bondage, and organized crime, has expanded to the point that it could undermine the entire U.S. and international effort. As President Bush's own special envoy and ambassador, Zalmay Khalilzad, recently admitted, ''[r]ather than getting better, it's gotten worse. There is a potential for drugs overwhelming the institutions – a sort of a narco-state."
- Topic:
- International Relations and Security
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and Asia
54036. Building a New Afghanistan: The Value of Success, the Cost of Failure
- Author:
- Barnett Rubin, Abby Stoddard, Humayun Hamidzada, and Adib Farhadi
- Publication Date:
- 03-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- On March 31, 2004, representatives of national governments and international organizations will meet in Berlin to renew their collective commitment to rebuild Afghanistan and ensure its future stability and development. The government of Afghanistan has thus far met all the deadlines and benchmarks required of it under the Bonn Agreement of December 5, 2001, and Afghanistan's international partners have made generous and at times risky contributions to that effort, including sacrificing the lives of some of their citizens.
- Topic:
- Development, Government, and Humanitarian Aid
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Asia, and Berlin
54037. Building Civilian Capacity for Conflict Management and Sustainable Peace
- Author:
- Shepard Forman
- Publication Date:
- 06-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- Since the early 1990s, the UN system, the World Bank Group, and bilateral donors have been involved in a broad array of state-support and peace-building functions in the aftermath of conflicts – many of them protracted – that have either severely weakened or largely decimated the institutions of governance. Designated variably as post-conflict reconstruction or peace-building, these activities have included a wide variety of administrative and public management tasks, ranging from political observation and negotiation in El Salvador, to technical assistance and advisory services in Mozambique, to the “light [but extensive] footprint” in Afghanistan and the full-fledged governing authority assumed by UNTAET in East Timor and UNMIK in Kosovo.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, Peace Studies, United Nations, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Kosovo, Mozambique, El Salvador, and Timor
54038. The United States in a Global Age: The Case for Multilateral Engagement
- Author:
- Stewart Patrick, Shepard Forman, and Princetown Lyman
- Publication Date:
- 03-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- This paper outlines a new conceptual framework for U.S. foreign policy appropriate to a global age. It argues that constructive multilateral engagement is essential if the United States is to grapple with the challenges and take better advantage of the opportunities presented by globalization. The paper emerges from a collaborative study sponsored by the Center on International Cooperation (CIC) to examine the causes and consequences of U.S. ambivalence toward multilateral cooperation.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United States
54039. The Cost of Doing Too Little
- Publication Date:
- 04-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- On March 31 — April 1, 2004, the governments of Germany and Afghanistan will co-host a conference in Berlin entitled "Afghanistan and the International Community: A Partnership for the Future." At this conference, the Afghan government will present to donor governments and international financial institutions its plan for rebuilding the country, "Securing Afghanistan's Future."
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Asia
54040. THE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS: Postconflict Reconstruction and Peacebuilding Capacities
- Author:
- James Boyce
- Publication Date:
- 06-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- This paper assesses the capacity of the international financial institutions–the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, and regional development banks–to respond effectively in the planning and implementation of the civilian components of postconflict reconstruction and peacebuildin.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Peace Studies