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53582. Proliferation in the "Axis of Evil": North Korea, Iran, and Iraq
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- Despite the June 2000 summit meeting and meetings between high level U.S. and North Korean officials on the one hand, and economic turmoil and continued food shortages on the other, we believe North Korea remains committed to maintaining strong military forces. These forces continue to be deployed close to the border with South Korea in an offensively oriented posture, and North Korea's NBC and missile programs likely remain key components of its overall security strategy. The most likely large- scale regional war scenario over the near term, which would involve the United States, would be on the Korean peninsula. In recent years, North Korea has continued to pose a complex security challenge to the United States and its allies. Prior to the 1994 Agreed Framework, North Korea is believed to have produced and diverted sufficient plutonium for at least one, and possibly two, nuclear weapons. In addition, although North Korea froze the production of plutonium in 1994, there are concerns that North Korea is continuing with some elements of a nuclear weapons program. North Korea also possesses stockpiles of chemical weapons, which could be used in the event of renewed hostilities on the peninsula. Research and development into biological agents and toxins suggest North Korea may have a biological weapons capability. North Korea has hundreds of ballistic missiles available for use against targets on the peninsula, some of which are capable of reaching tar-gets in Japan. Its missile capabilities are increasing at a steady pace, and it has progressed to producing medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs). North Korea also has continued development of even longer-range missiles that would be able to threaten areas well beyond the region, including portions of the continental United States. As a result of U.S. diplomatic efforts, however, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) has maintained a moratorium on launches of long-range missiles for over one year.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Iran, and Korea
53583. The Asian Balance of Weapons of Mass Destruction A Quantitative and Arms Control Analysis
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- Beijing continues to emerge as an increasingly active player in the region. Therefore, it is focused on becoming a world - class industrialized power through a countrywide modernization effort, which includes economic, technological, and military components of national power. Beijing already wields significant international influence by virtue of its permanent membership on the United Nations (UN) Security Council and its economic influence. China's public support for nonproliferation regimes is motivated by several factors, including a desire to enhance its image as a responsible world power and support for nonproliferation objectives.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, South Asia, Beijing, and Asia
53584. US and Russian Nuclear Forces and Arms Control After the US Nuclear Posture Review
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- The reporting of START accountable warheads has led to serious confusion between START accountable warheads and actual warheads.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, Europe, South Asia, Middle East, and Asia
53585. The Day the World Changed? Terrorism and World Order
- Author:
- Stuart Harris, William Maley, Amin Saikal, Richard Price, and Christian Reus-Smit
- Publication Date:
- 10-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Australian National University Department of International Relations
- Abstract:
- Change in world politics is generally thought to be more momentous than incremental. The power of social, political and economic structures, combined with habit, routine and sunk costs, favours continuity over change, and practices can persist long after their purpose has declined. It usually takes major shocks to the system 'cataclysmic events that expose the shortcomings of established practices' to license new forms of understanding, empower new sets of actors, and encourage new methods of ordering social, economic and political relations. The Great Depression and the Second World War were cataclysmic events of this import, as were the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union. The story of international relations is thus one of 'punctuated equilibria', not gradual evolution.
- Topic:
- Security and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and Asia
53586. The Role of Bias in Third Party Intervention: Theory and Evidence
- Author:
- David Carment and Dane Rowlands
- Publication Date:
- 10-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Throughout the 1990s multilateral interventions deviated significantly from their predecessor missions in a number of important ways. For one, the central characteristics of traditional peacekeeping missions - the use of force for self defense only, the interposition of troops after a ceasefire and the maintenance of tactical and strategic impartiality - no longer provided the delimiting boundaries for presumed mission success. Second, intrastate conflicts proved to be decidedly more complex and often more deadly for both the belligerents and peacekeepers as well as ordinary citizens caught in the fray. Third, in order to execute functions such as guaranteeing the safe passage of humanitarian assistance, assisting displaced persons, and stopping the killing of ordinary citizens, peacekeepers often resorted to more forceful measures.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- Asia
53587. Shusha's Pivotal Role in a Nagorno-Karabagh Settlement
- Author:
- Elchin Amirbayov
- Publication Date:
- 12-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Peace in Nagorno - Karabagh will demand painful compromises from both Armenia and Azerbaijan. A “winner's peace” — one that only reflects the military gains of one side — will not foster long - term resolution of the conflict. The Shusha region of Nagorno - Karabagh has special symbolic meaning for Azerbaijanis. A key element in obtaining Azerbaijani acceptance of a peace agreement is the return of the Shusha region to Azerbaijani control and the guaranteed right of internally displaced Azerbaijani persons to return to the Shusha region.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, and Energy Policy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Asia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan
53588. Transcript of speech at Kennedy School: 'Searching for Security in a Changing World'
- Author:
- Eduard Shevardnadze
- Publication Date:
- 10-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- As soon as I first learned that I would come to speak at Harvard, I began to prepare my remarks. Therefore, I had practically completed them when the unspeakable events happened. That unprecedented surge of evil may one day come to be regarded as an historical watershed, an infamous hallmark.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, and Energy Policy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Asia, and Georgia
53589. In the Name of National Security: U.S. Counterterrorist Measures, 1960-2000
- Author:
- Laura K. Donohue
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Between 1960 and 2000 the United States responded to the growing threat of terrorism with a wide range of measures. The government implemented provisions that extended from the negotiation of international agreements, military strikes against state sponsors of terrorism, and the creation of decontamination teams, to changes in immigration procedures, advances in surveillance, and an increase in the severity of penalties associated with terrorist attack. As discussion in the United States progresses on the best course of action for dealing with conventional, chemical, biological, nuclear, or radiologic terrorism, it is useful to take stock of where the country stands in the development of its counterterrorism strategy and to consider what factors have shaped the American response. While some substantive areas may be developed further to respond more effectively to terrorism, the significant picture that emerges is how complex and detailed the American counterterrorist complex already has become. The many branches of government entrusted with the life and property of the citizens have felt it necessary to respond to successive terrorist threats by the introduction of a wide range of measures. Left unchecked, the continued expansion of U.S. provisions risks significant inroads into civil liberties, the alienation of minorities and other states, an increase in the number and effectiveness of terrorist acts, and unchecked expenditures. This article provides a taxonomy of efforts to address the threat and argues that, while some gaps may need to be addressed, of more serious concern is the long-term affect of the steady expansion of U.S. counterterrorist measures.
- Topic:
- Government, Nuclear Weapons, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States
53590. Covert Biological Weapons Attacks against Agricultural Targets: Assessing the Impact against U.S. Agriculture
- Author:
- Jason Pate and Gavin Cameron
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Since 1995, analysts, policymakers, and the news media in the United States have focused unprecedented attention on the threat of terrorism involving weapons of mass destruction (WMD), particularly chemical and biological weapons (CBW). The Aum Shinrikyo attack in Tokyo in March 1995 and the Oklahoma City bombing the following month significantly contributed to this phenomenon in two important ways. First, Aum proved that subnational groups could obtain CBW, previously only a theoretical possibility. After the Tokyo incident terrorists using CBW appeared to be an evolving and dangerous threat that required creative new thinking in counter- and antiterrorism policy. Second, the Oklahoma City bombing brought the threat of terrorism to the American heartland. No longer was terrorism a foreign phenomenon characterized by media accounts of masked Islamic fundamentalists taking hostages, hijacking planes, or bombing far-away buildings. The terrorists in this case were Americans targeting Americans: not only had terrorism reached the center of the country, but the terrorist threat originated much closer to home.
- Topic:
- Environment, Nuclear Weapons, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States and Tokyo
53591. Judicial Reform and Human Rights in Russia
- Author:
- Danielle Lussier
- Publication Date:
- 06-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Sergei Pashin discussed Russia's judicial system, past and current debates on judicial reform, and his thoughts on the likelihood of the Putin government implementing a significant judicial reform. Dr. Pashin began by telling about the history and results of the 1991 - 1995 judicial reform in Russia. As the main achievements of this period Pashin identified ratification of the European Convention on Human Rights and acknowledgement of the jurisdiction of the European Court located in Strasbourg, adoption of a number of bills expanding and strengthening citizen s' civil and criminal procedure rights and of the law on jury trials, abolition of capital punishment for non - violent crimes, adoption of a law on judges' status in which real guarantees of independence of judges were declared, establishment of the first Constitutional Court in Russian history, establishment of a system of arbitration courts, etc.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, and Energy Policy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
53592. U.S. Policy on Caspian Energy Development and Exports: Mini-Case and Paradigm
- Author:
- Graham T. Allison and Emily Van Buskirk
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The date is July 1, 2001. Real world history and trends occurred as they did through March 19, 2001 — except for the hypothetical departures specified in the case below. Events after March 19 that are not specified in this case are assumed to be straight - line projections of events as they stand on March 19. Assume, for example, that sporadic violence continues in the Middle East at the current level of intensity; Britain and the U.S. are nearing the end of their review of UN sanctions against Iraq, and will soon make recommendations on refocusing the sanctions to make them “smarter”; as expected, Mohammad Khatami was reelected as President of Iran on June 8 with a mandate for continued reform; the price of oil is $25/barrel; events in Chechnya and Ukraine, and negotiations over Nagorno - Karabagh will continue as before.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, and Energy Policy
- Political Geography:
- Britain, Russia, United States, Iraq, Ukraine, Middle East, Asia, and United Nations
53593. Negotiations on Nagorno-Karabagh: Where Do We Go From Here? (Summary and Transcript Publication, with Photographs)
- Author:
- Brenda Shaffer, Carey Cavanaugh, Hamlet Isaxanli, and Ronald Suny
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- From April 3 - 7, 2001 the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe convened negotiations in Key West, Florida, aimed at achieving a peace settlement for the Nagorno - Karabagh conflict. U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell opened this set of talks between Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliyev and Armenian President Robert Kocharian, each of whom met separately with Secretary Powell in Florida and, subsequently, in Washington D.C. with President Bush. The United States, France and Russia were the mediators at the negotiations, as co - chairs of the OSCE “Minsk Group” (which includes 13 countries) established in 1992 as part of an effort to end the conflict. The chief negotiator on the U.S. side at Key West was Ambassador Carey Cavanaugh, who is the State Department's Special Negotiator for the conflict on a constant basis. The negotiations were held in proximity format, meaning that the facilitators held separate talks with each of the heads of Azerbaijan and Armenia.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, and Energy Policy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Washington, Asia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Florida
53594. Overview of Federal Programs to Enhance State and Local Preparedness for Terrorism with Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Author:
- Gregory D. Koblentz
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Over the past five years, the United States has launched an unprecedented series of initiatives to prepare for the possibility of a terrorist attack employing a weapon of mass destruction (WMD) within the United States. These initiatives, originating in Congress, the White House, and Cabinet departments, have resulted in a complex web of programs to improve the preparedness and response capabilities of local, state, and federal agencies by providing specialized equipment, training, and planning assistance. While a debate has raged over the risk posed by terrorist groups seeking to cause mass casualties with chemical, biological, nuclear, or radiological weapons, federal spending on domestic preparedness has climbed steadily despite the lack of consensus on the severity of the threat. From 1997 to 2000, federal spending to prepare for WMD terrorism swelled from roughly $130 million to $1.4 billion, a tenfold increase. Almost one-quarter of the entire domestic preparedness budget, and roughly one-half of federal spending on preparedness and response for WMD terrorism, has been in the form of federal assistance to state and local governments.
- Topic:
- Environment and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States
53595. U.S. Preparations for Biological Terrorism: Legal Limitations and the Need for Planning
- Author:
- Juliette N. Kayyem
- Publication Date:
- 03-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The threat of terrorism has focused the attention of the United States on domestic preparedness. Although the likelihood of a domestic terrorist attack may be relatively low, the country is nonetheless preparing first responders, local, state and federal officials, and the public on what to do and what to expect should one occur. Lawyers have only recently begun to consider the issue of domestic preparedness. Any steps to improve preparedness must, of course, involve an assessment by the proper legal authorities to determine their lawfulness and legitimacy.
- Topic:
- Environment, National Security, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States
53596. Russian Democracy: Is There a Future?
- Author:
- Michael McFaul
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- On behalf of the Strengthening Democratic Institutions Project, I would like to welcome you to our seminar. Michael McFaul is going to lead us in a discussion entitled, "Russian Democracy: Is there a future?" This is a topic that SDI has been following through our publications and programs for over ten years now. SDI's current thoughts on this topic are outlined in our publication, Russia Watch. The lead article, "Buttressing Russia's Democratic Freedoms" outlines some of our thoughts on this topic.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, and Energy Policy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
53597. Israel's Preparedness for High Consequence Terrorism
- Author:
- Ariel Merari
- Publication Date:
- 10-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Since its creation in 1948, Israel has had to contend with the constant threat of terrorism. To meet this challenge, Israel has created and maintained an elaborate counterterrorism system. Much of the Israeli effort has focused on developing defensive measures designed to prevent attacks on the civilian population and minimize casualties. Israel has developed this strategy for two reasons. First, most Palestinian terrorist attacks, as well as a smaller yet significant number of attacks by Lebanese groups, have been random attacks against civilians. Second, all Israeli governments have been highly sensitive to civilian casualties.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
53598. The Epidemiology of Microeconomic Expectations
- Author:
- Christopher D. Carroll
- Publication Date:
- 12-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Since the foundational work of Keynes (1936), macroeconomists have emphasized the importance of agents' expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes. Yet in recent decades macroeconomists have devoted almost no effort to modeling actual empirical expectations data, instead assuming all agents' expectations are 'rational.' This paper takes up the challenge of modeling empirical household expectations data, and shows that a simple, standard model from epidemiology does a remarkably good job of explaining the deviations of household inflation and unemployment expectations from the 'rational expectations' benchmark. Furthermore, a microfoundations or 'agent-based' version of the model may be able to explain, in a way that still permits aggregation, stark rejections of the pure rational expectations framework like Souleles's (2002) finding that members of different demographic groups have sharply different predictions for macroeconomic aggregates like the inflation rate.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Latin America
53599. Nasty, Brutish and Long: America's War on Terrorism
- Author:
- Ivo H. Daalder and James M. Lindsay
- Publication Date:
- 12-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- The post–cold war era ended abruptly on the morning of September 11, 2001. From the moment terrorists turned jetliners into weapons of mass destruction, the United States was inescapably engaged in a new “war” against global terrorism. The Bush administration now intends to make that war the central organizing principle of America's foreign and defense policies.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
53600. The Aid and Reconstruction Agenda for Afghanistan
- Author:
- Michael E. O'Hanlon
- Publication Date:
- 12-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- With the Taliban and al Qaeda largely defeated, a temporary coalition government taking power in Afghanistan, the Freedom Bridge near Uzbekistan finally open to relief efforts, and foreign donors promising significant aid more generally, the future looks increasingly promising for the Afghan people. But many challenges remain, even beyond the immediate priority of completing the military operation. Without rapid delivery of sufficient food, shelter, and medical supplies, Afghanistan could still experience a humanitarian catastrophe this winter. Without great care to shore up the coalition government, it could fail, just as state-building efforts have failed with disastrous consequences in places such as Angola, Rwanda, and Somalia in recent years. Without sufficient delivery of reconstruction aid, Afghanistan could remain mired in the same poverty and chaos that gave rise to the Taliban in the first place.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, Uzbekistan, Rwanda, Somalia, and Angola