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53562. The Defense Monitor: The Afghan Campaign One Year On
- Author:
- Mark Burgess
- Publication Date:
- 09-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Defense Information
- Abstract:
- An Afghan Blitzkrieg? Sept. 11, 2001, transformed Afghanistan even more than it did America. The pariah state which harbored Osama bin Laden, and was the base camp for his al Qaeda network, immediately became the focus of the U.S. war against terrorism. The Afghan campaign began amid dire warnings of the dangers historically faced by foreign interlopers in the country that was center stage of central Asia's “great game” during the 19th and 20th centuries and that would become the first battlefield of an even greater one during the first year of the 21st. The experience of the British and the Soviets was held up as an example of what fate potentially awaited any American intervention in Afghanistan. A year later, such warnings seem overstated. Al Qaeda's camps in Afghanistan have been destroyed, the Taliban ousted, and an Afghan Transitional Government rules in their place. Meanwhile, life for the average Afghan is a considerably less nasty and brutish affair than it was a little over a year ago — all in short order and at a relatively low cost in human life. Such successes notwithstanding, the Afghan campaign is not yet over. It has not been without failings, some of which may return to haunt ongoing operations there. Similarly, some of the methods used to achieve this success, while effective in the short term, may yet prove polemical.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan
53563. The Defense Monitor: How Little is Enough: U.S. End–Use Monitoring and Oversight of the Weapons Trade
- Author:
- Fleur A. Burke
- Publication Date:
- 08-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Defense Information
- Abstract:
- When the united states began airstrikes in Afghanistan in October 2001, U.S. planes were threatened by Stinger missiles that had been provided to the mujaheddin by the United States in the 1980s. Since at least the mid-1990s, the use of legally exported U.S. weaponry to bomb and burn Kurdish villages in southeastern Turkey has been documented. Turkish forces have also used U.S.-supplied light weaponry in specific human rights violations, ranging from torture to indiscriminate firing on civilians.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- Turkey
53564. The Defense Monitor: Nuclear Time Warp
- Author:
- Dr. Bruce G. Blair
- Publication Date:
- 05-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Defense Information
- Abstract:
- President george W. Bush's new Nuclear Posture Review harks back to the stone age, or at least to the 1950s, when America's most beautiful minds struggled to devise a strategy to deal with the original rogue state — the Soviet Union. The latest exercise to devise a nuclear strategy to neutralize threats of weapons of mass destruction wielded by the 2002-class of rogue states such as Iraq and North Korea is proof that time folds over on itself, and that higher-order nuclear intelligence is as elusive as table-top fusion. This repetition of history isn't funny, but it is dangerous.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and North Korea
53565. The Defense Monitor: Exploring the Axis of Evil — Introduction
- Author:
- Dan Smith
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Defense Information
- Abstract:
- IN HIS JAN. 29, 2002 State of the Union Address to Congress and the American public, U.S. President George W. Bush described a tripartite “axis of evil” threatening the United States.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States
53566. Conference-Workshop on the Northern European Initiative
- Author:
- Denise M. Horn
- Publication Date:
- 06-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Security and Democracy
- Abstract:
- Heather Conley began the session with a report regarding the current plans for US policy in the region. Generally NEI is considered a success story, thus the US is now retooling its policies by asking where the US should go in a post-enlargement world, and asking how to use this policy elsewhere.
- Topic:
- Gender Issues, Genocide, and Human Rights
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
53567. Onward, Liberal Soldiers? The Crusading Logic of Bush's Grand Strategy and What Is Wrong with It
- Author:
- Edward Rhodes
- Publication Date:
- 06-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Security and Democracy
- Abstract:
- As pressures mount to strike before summer weather forecloses military options for the year, the debate whether the United States should undertake a preventive war against Iraq moves inexorably toward the center of the American political stage, despite the understandable reluctance of many Americans to think about the difficult trade-offs and troubling questions such a war would raise. Proponents of the war focus on the dangers of leaving Saddam Hussein in power. Opponents focus on the morality, military risks, and international political costs of undertaking a preventive war, on the possibilities of containing Saddam Hussein's influence and deterring his use of weapons of mass destruction without resort to war, and on the difficulties of building stable political institutions in the region after a victory.
- Topic:
- Gender Issues, Genocide, and Human Rights
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
53568. Rape as Genocide: The Legal Response to Sexual Violence
- Author:
- Dr. Frances T. Pilch
- Publication Date:
- 09-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Security and Democracy
- Abstract:
- The last decade has witnessed a profound transformation in the treatment of sexual violence in international law. The overwhelming evidence of the widespread use of rape as a policy tool in the former Yugoslavia, combined with the tragedy of the genocide in Rwanda, in which rape was also widely prevalent, has led to a legal reconceptualization of sexual violence in internal and international conflicts. The ad hoc tribunals for the former Yugoslavia and Rwanda, have genuinely broken new ground as they have confronted cases dealing with the complexities of rape, torture, and genocide. They have struggled with determining the legal definition of rape and finding a balance between the rights of witnesses and defendants. The revolutionary changes that have taken place in this area of the law in large part reflect the growing mobilization and influence of non-governmental organizations articulating the importance of the rights of women, and the increasing importance of the presence of women advocates, prosecutors, and judges.
- Topic:
- Gender Issues, Genocide, Human Rights, and International Law
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Yugoslavia, and Sierra Leone
53569. Communicating Nuclear Risk: Informing the Public about the Risks and Realities of Nuclear Terrorism
- Author:
- Tonya L. Putnam
- Publication Date:
- 10-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
- Abstract:
- Achieving adequate preparedness for a terrorist attack against the United States involving a nuclear or radiological weapon is simultaneously a technical problem, a public-policy challenge, and a public-education mission. Response to terrorist attacks differs in important ways from response to more familiar nuclear emergencies arising from reactor accidents, and also from response to conventional and chemical and biological terrorist attacks. The complications of risk communication in the realm of nuclear terrorism include overcoming misinformation about the nature of the threats posed by terrorist attacks involving nuclear and radiological weapons as well as mistrust of experts, the government, and the media.
- Topic:
- Security, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
53570. People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF): Shifting Airpower Balance and Challenges to India's Security
- Author:
- Ramesh V. Phadke
- Publication Date:
- 02-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
- Abstract:
- China is India's largest and most important neighbor, and despite recent efforts at improving relations between the two countries, the over half-century-old border dispute remains unresolved. China is an expansionist power trying to enhance the security of its peripheral areas. It is important to note that in the recent past, China has resolved its border disputes with almost all its neighbors except India. Relations between the two countries have no doubt improved since 1988, when then-Indian prime minister, the late Rajiv Gandhi, visited Beijing, and since the conclusion of 1993 and 1996 agreements on maintenance of peace and tranquility on the borders, but the progress so far has been slow. China continues to claim some 90,000 square kilometers of Indian territory in the northeast while it illegally occupies some 23,000 square kilometers of Aksai Chin in the north of India.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- China, South Asia, and India
53571. Globalization and Security: Migration and Evolving Conceptions of Security in Statecraft and Scholarship
- Author:
- Christopher Rudolph
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
- Abstract:
- Does globalization shape the way states define their security interests? While few would question the fact that we live in an era of extraordinary change—technological, economic, social, and political—scholars disagree whether globalization is really something new and different, or simply the continuation of an enduring process that has proceeded for centuries (Cf. Chase-Dunn 1994; Rosenau 1997; Sassen 1998; Arrighi 1999; Wallerstein 1999; Castells 2000; Keohane and Nye 2000; Mittelman 2000). However, even skeptics concede that while the capitalist world-system has become increasingly global over the span of centuries, the speed and degree of globalization has increased tremendously in recent decades (Chase-Dunn 1999, 181). Even before George Bush popularized the term “new world order,” there was a growing sense that the changes brought about by processes of globalization were fundamentally changing world order and international politics—but in what sense?
- Topic:
- International Relations
53572. Security and the Political Economy of International Migration
- Author:
- Christopher Rudolph
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
- Abstract:
- Richard Rosecrance (1986) argues that the world has transformed into a system of trading states, where power is increasingly based on Ricardian notions of comparative advantage, factor mobility, and free trade. As gains from trade and interdependence increase, as they have under the past half-century of American hegemony, the use of a military-territorial strategy is a less appealing means of maximizing state power, especially since war has become increasingly costly, complicated, and destructive (Cf. Morgenthau, 1948; Kennedy, 1988; Mueller, 1989; Kupchan, 1994). Proponents of "Washington consensus" neoliberalism argue that liberal trade policies and laissez-faire treatment of international factor flows moves economies toward a Pareto-optimal frontier, one that will create a "rising tide to lift all boats" in both developed and developing nations, though perhaps not evenly (Krugman, 1995; Krugman and Venables, 1995; Krugman and Obstfeld, 1997). Considerable evidence supports the argument that trading state globalization has emerged as a global norm and as a widely accepted basis of state grand strategy since World War II. Since the 1940s, successive rounds of the GATT (now the WTO) have resulted in consistently lower tariff rates that have helped stimulate world trade. From 1980—1998, world trade has grown anywhere from 4.2% to 10.3%, and between 1990—1999 world trade has grown at over three times the rate of global output (World Bank, 1998; WTO, 2000). Moreover, financial transactions, once an adjunct of trade, now tower of trade flows by a ratio of 50:1 (Ruggie, 1995:48; see also Cohen, 1998).
- Topic:
- International Relations
- Political Geography:
- America and Washington
53573. An Indian Assault on Terrorism – The Military Option
- Author:
- Jon P. Dorschner
- Publication Date:
- 08-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
- Abstract:
- India has long endured terrorist attacks against its security forces and civilians, both in Indian Kashmir and in India proper, which it alleges are directed and financed by Pakistan. On Dec ember 13, a terrorist attack against the Indian parliament building in New Delhi appeared aimed at killing Indian members of parliament. India interpreted this as an “act of war,” mobilized its troops and threatened military action. This paper examines the options available to the Indian military, and determines that none of them are very attractive and are unlikely to cause serious damage to the terrorist infrastructure located in Pakistan controlled Kashmir, or in Pakistan proper.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, South Asia, India, and Kashmir
53574. Assessing the Risks of Cyber Terrorism, Cyber War and Other Cyber Threats
- Author:
- James A. Lewis
- Publication Date:
- 12-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- Cyber-warfare conjures up images of information warriors unleashing vicious attacks against an unsuspecting opponent's computer networks, wreaking havoc and paralyzing nations. This a frightening scenario, but how likely is it to occur? What would the effects of a cyber attack be on a potential opponent? Cyber attacks, network security and information pose complex problems that reach into new areas for national security and public policy. This paper looks at one set of issues – those related to cyber-terrorism and cyber attacks on critical infrastructure and their implications for national security. Cyber-terrorism is “the use of computer network tools to shut down critical national infrastructures (such as energy, transportation, government operations) or to coerce or intimidate a government or civilian population.” The premise of cyber terrorism is that as nations and critical infrastructure became more dependent on computer networks for their operation, new vulnerabilities are created – “a massive electronic Achilles' heel.” A hostile nation or group could exploit these vulnerabilities to penetrate a poorly secured computer network and disrupt or even shut down critical functions.
- Topic:
- Security, Science and Technology, and Terrorism
53575. Strengthening Law Enforcement Capabilities to Combat Terrorism
- Author:
- James A. Lewis
- Publication Date:
- 10-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- Ten days after the terrorist strikes on New York and Washington, Attorney General John Ashcroft and Federal Bureau of Investigation Director Robert Mueller toured the smoldering rubble where the Twin Towers once had stood. “It's unspeakable,” the Attorney General kept repeating as he took in the horrible scene. Mueller walked with New York Governor George Pataki. “We'll get them,” he said.
- Topic:
- Security, Science and Technology, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- New York and Washington
53576. Saudi Military Forces Enter the 21st Century: The Saudi Air Force
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- This draft analysis is be circulated for comment as part of the CSIS “Saudi Arabia Enters the 21st Century Project.” It will be extensively revised before final publication.
- Topic:
- Security and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States and Middle East
53577. Saudi Military Forces Enter the 21 st Century: VI. Saudi Force Plans, Military Personnel, Military Expenditures, and Arms Transfers
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- This draft analysis is be circulated for comment as part of the CSIS “Saudi Arabia Enters the 21st Century Project.” It will be extensively revised before final publication.
- Topic:
- Security and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States and Middle East
53578. The New American Approach to Defense: The FY2003 Program Notes on Homeland Defense, Counterterrorism, Asymmetric Warfare, and Force Transformation
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 02-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- The US is Redefining Security: Three major areas in which the US is redefining defense: Home land defense, Force Transformation, Nuclear Posture Review.
- Topic:
- Security and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States
53579. The Global Nuclear Balance: A Quantitative and Arms Control Analysis
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 02-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- Russia retains a significant strategic nuclear force capability, despite the decline in overall force size since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and despite apparent defense budgetary shortfalls and system aging. Russia also inherited sizeable biological and chemical warfare establishments from the FSU, and some components of these programs remain largely intact. Russian entities have exported various nuclear and ballistic missile technologies to states of proliferation concern, and Russia also remains a source for offensive biological and chemical warfare technologies and expertise.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, Europe, Middle East, and Asia
53580. Weapons of Mass Destruction in India and Pakistan
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 02-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- India continues its nuclear weapons development program, for which its underground nuclear tests in May 1998 were a significant milestone. The acquisition of foreign equipment will benefit New Delhi in its efforts to develop and produce more sophisticated nuclear weapons. During this reporting period, India continued to obtain foreign assistance for its civilian nuclear power program, primarily from Russia.
- Topic:
- Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Russia, South Asia, India, Asia, and New Delhi