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53521. CERI: Les relations civilo-militaires en Croatie, 1990-2001

Author:
Jean-François Morel and Renéo Lukic
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:
In contrast to most of Eastern and Central European countries that underwent their post-communist transition peacefully, Croatia had to undergo its transition during wartime. The outbreak of the Serbo-Croatian war in Spring 1991 forced Croatia to build rapidly an army to protect its territory. However, at this time, Croatia was an emerging democracy and after the European Community recognised its independence on January 15, 1992, the parliamentary institutions were unable to exert their authority over the Croatian army (Hrvatska vojska, HV). The Croatian President, Franjo Tudjman, and the political party he presided, the HDZ, dominated the HV by way of political penetration. Tudjman, who led Croatia to independence, benefited from a triple legitimacy (political, constitutional and charismatic) that allowed him to exert his power over the HV, much the same as the legitimacy Josip Broz-Tito enjoyed over the Yugoslav National Army in Communist Yugoslavia. The result is that the civil-military regime in Croatia after 1990 suffered from a democratic deficit. After the death of President Franjo Tudjman in December 1999 and the change of majority in the January-February 2000 elections, the new Croatian leadership, particularly President Stjepan Mesic, tried to establish democratic control over the armed forces. However, this aim clashed with the opposition of the Ministry of Defense and of numerous officers still committed to the HDZ. For these reasons, a democratic civil-military regime in Croatia is not yet a reality. However, Croatia has made some progress toward the establishment of a democratic civil-military regime. By trying to join some international organizations (NATO), or by being compelled to cooperate with others (International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia, ICTY), Croatia is now in the process of interiorizing the norms concerning the civilian and democratic control of the armed forces upon which these organizations are based. Being a member of the Partnership for Peace (PfP), and wishing to join as soon as possible NATO's Membership Action Plan (MAP), Croatia is obliged to move in this direction.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and War
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Croatia

53522. CERI: New Perspectives on EU-Member State Relationships

Author:
Simon Bulmer and Christian Lequesne
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:
This paper aims to review the "state of the art" for examining EU-member state relations. It recognises first of all that EU-member state relationships are interactive. Member states are key actors in making EU policy, and their role in this process is central to policy-making studies. However, European integration has an important impact upon the member states: the phenomenon that has come to be termed Europeanization. We review the literatures concerned with these two directions of flow: the analytical issues raised and the theoretical perspectives deployed. We then turn to the empirical literature on EU-member state relationships, and how it operationalises the theoretical literatures (if at all). This empirical literature tends to be organised in two ways: individual or comparative studies of member states' relationships with the EU; or studies of the impact of the EU on types of political actor/institution or on policy areas/sectors. We review both these literatures. On the basis of the identified strengths and weaknesses in the different literatures examined, we suggest a research agenda for future theoretical and empirical work.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Politics, Regional Cooperation, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe

53523. Thoughts Before Yet Another NATO Summit

Author:
Jeffrey Bialos
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Transatlantic Relations
Abstract:
A significant NATO Summit is approaching. The United States and its European allies are at a crossroads. NATO is expanding to embrace former members of the Warsaw Pact. The future role of NATO as a military alliance in the 21st century remains under discussion. Will NATO truly be given tangible new missions and really act out of area, and what force structure will support its strategic objectives? Will the United States and its European partners bridge the gap over how to fight the war now underway? Will the widening gap in military capabilities between the United States and its coalition partners be addressed, and will there ever again be coalition operations with U.S. participation under NATO command? Are Europe and the United States “de-coupling,” with the creation of “Fortress Europe” and “Fortress America” in defense? There is an opportunity to seize the moment, and act on these vital issues.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States, America, and Europe

53524. The New Transatlantic Security Network

Author:
Chantal de Jonge Oudraat
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Transatlantic Relations
Abstract:
The United States and its European allies often found themselves at loggerheads in the 1990s. Disputes over arms control, peacekeeping operations in the Balkans, the environment, and the role of the United Nations (UN) were frequent. European governments repeatedly accused the United States of being disengaged and not living up to its responsibilities as a global power. When it did, they feared U.S. power and its disdain for multilateral approaches to international problems.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, and United Nations
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Balkans

53525. Politics and Passions: the Stakes of Democracy

Author:
Chantal Mouffe
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of Democracy, University of Westminster
Abstract:
For some time I have been concerned with what I see as our growing inability to envisage in political terms the problems facing our societies: that is, to see them as problems the solutions to which entail not just technical but political decisions. These decisions would be made between real alternatives, the existence of which implied the presence of conflicting but legitimate projects of how to organize our common life. We appear to be witnessing not the end of history but the end of politics. Is this not the message of recent trends in political theory and sociology, as well as of the practices of mainstream political parties? They all claim that the adversarial model of politics has become obsolete and that we have entered a new phase of reflexive modernity, one in which an inclusive consensus can be built around a 'radical centre'. All those who disagree with this consensus are dismissed as archaic or condemned as evil. Morality has been promoted to the position of a master narrative; as such, it replaces discredited political and social discourses as a framework for collective action. Morality is rapidly becoming the only legitimate vocabulary: we are now urged to think not in terms of right and left, but of right and wrong.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Government, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Global Focus

53526. For a State of Peace: Conflict and the Future of Democracy in Sudan

Author:
Abdelwahab El-Affendi
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of Democracy, University of Westminster
Abstract:
Sudan – Africa's largest country (area: 2.5 million square kilometres; population: 36 million) – has been described as a microcosm of the continent, as it embodies the continent's characteristic ethnic and religious diversity. The majority of its inhabitants (70 per cent) are Muslim. The rest adhere to traditional African beliefs (25 per cent) or various Christian denominations (5 per cent). The majority of Muslims are Arabic speaking (though not all are ethnically Arab), and Arabic is both the official language and the lingua franca. However, over 500 ethnic groups live in Sudan, and some 75 languages are spoken in the country. The bulk of the Arabic-speaking Muslims live in the north, while the south is inhabited by a predominantly non-Arab and non-Muslim population.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Religion
Political Geography:
Sudan, Middle East, and Arabia

53527. Crime, Terror and the Central Asia Drug Trade

Author:
Tamara Makarenko
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, St. Andrews University, Scotland
Abstract:
Over the last decade, opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan has been rising incrementally, culminating in a bumper crop in 1999 that produced approximately 80 percent of the global supply of illicit opium. Despite this predicament, the dynamics of the illicit drugs trade in Afghanistan has received little attention. Most media reports and government statements over-simplify the situation, making it appear as though the Taliban controlled the planting, cultivation, production and trafficking of all opiates. For example, The Times, in an article published in January 2000, reported “The Taliban rulers of Afghanistan have become the world's biggest producers and smugglers of hard drugs, overtaking rings in Colombia and Burma. They are now responsible for 95 per cent of all the heroin entering Britain.” Following the September 11 attacks, this responsibility was shared with Usama bin Laden and the Al-Qaeda network. British Prime Minister Tony Blair thus stated that the “arms the Taliban are buying today are paid for with the lives of young British people buying their drugs on British streets”, and subsequently added that the Taliban and Usama bin Laden “jointly exploited the drugs trade.” This view has also been propagated in the United States by leading news agencies. CNN, for example, explicitly reported that the Taliban both taxed and trafficked in narcotics, which were directly used to finance their military operations.
Topic:
Crime, Economics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Britain, Afghanistan, Central Asia, Taliban, Colombia, and Burma

53528. Terrorism and Transnational Organised Crime: the emerging nexus

Author:
Tamara Makarenko
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, St. Andrews University, Scotland
Abstract:
The end of the Cold War and subsequent demise of the Soviet Union ushered in a new international security environment that can no longer be explained by the dominant security paradigms utilised by most Western governments and analysts since World War II. Our understanding of security falling under the rubric of high politics, and focused on maintaining the territorial sovereignty of state actors has been questioned by several ongoing international dynamics. For example, inter-state conflicts have been replaced by rising occurrences of intra-state violence; the state as the central focus of international affairs has given way to a host of non-state actors; and, it has become increasingly evident that the greatest threat to security emanates from the rapidly evolving phenomena of terrorism and transnational organised crime (TOC). In actuality, national, regional and international experience with insecurity over the past decade has confirmed that terrorism and TOC deserve paramount attention precisely because they both span national boundaries, and thus are necessarily multi-dimensional and organised; and, because they directly threaten the stability of states by targeting economic, political and social systems.
Topic:
Security, Crime, Economics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Soviet Union

53529. Paramilitarism, Death Squads, and Government in Latin America

Author:
Adam Jones
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
This paper, the first of a planned two-part analysis, examines the institutions of paramilitarism, death squads, and warlords in Latin America, with a focus on the case-studies of Mexico and Peru. It begins with an overview of the small comparative literature on paramilitary movements and death squads around the world, seeking to define and clarify the terminology. The literature on "warlordism" is then reviewed, and the similarities and distinctions between paramilitaries and warlords are considered. Lastly, I examine two case -studies that have not, as yet, received extended attention in the comparative literature: Mexico and Colombia. The paper concludes by summarizing the findings and charting a course for future investigations. (PDF, Spanish, 40 pages, 2.76 MB)   Â
Topic:
Civil Society and Human Rights
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, North America, Mexico, and Peru

53530. Bicameralismo en América Latina

Author:
Jorge Schiavon
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
More than half of the countries in Latin America have bicameral legislatures, and the vast majority of the larger countries in the region have dual legislative bodies. This paper explores whether bicameralism is an important institutional variable in the functioning of Latin American systems. It develops a typology of the different types of bycameralism in the region based on several specific characteristics that differentiate between them, and discusses the relevance of the institutional configuration of the system and the party configuration of the chambers for bicameralism. Then, it constructs a veto gates and players model in order to analyze the causal mechanism through which bicameralism impacts Latin America systems. Finally, it presents two examples (one with variation in time, the other with variation in space) to support the argument that bicameralism matters depending on its type, the institutional configuration, and party composition of the system.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
Latin America

53531. International Relations and Comparative Politics: Cooperation or Conflict?

Author:
Jorge Schiavon
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
This article concentrates in providing an answer to two deeply related questions: is the study of International Relations (IR) and Comparative Politics (CP), in methodological and theoretical terms, intrinsically different, essentially identical, or complementary?, and thus, should we see IR as an autonomous and isolated field of study, as a sub-field of CP, or are both IR and CP valid and deeply related areas of study of Political Science (PS)? To answer these questions, the article is divided in three sections. The first section concentrates on the validity of IR as a field of study. The second section is devoted to discuss the methodological compatibility (or not) between IR and CP, using one central theoretical issue as a case of study: the sources of origins of state motivations as explanatory variable of state actions (specifically cooperation or conflict. Finally, the third and last section to the article presents some insights on how IR theories can be linked, and to certain degree improved, taking into account CP theories, using the example of state preferences developed in the second section. The article concludes that IR and CP theories are very similar in methodological and theoretical terms, and thus, they can complement and cross-fertilize each other, "cooperating" to construct better explanations of the actions of political actors in the domestic and international systems.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, International Cooperation, and Politics

53532. The Combat of Drug Trafficking in Mexico under Salinas: The Limits of Tolerance

Author:
Jorge Chabat
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
The combat of drug trafficking in Mexico under the Salinas Administration showed some signs of improvement in terms of the indicators required by the U.S. government to grant certification every year: a) budgetary resources dedicated to fighting drug trafficking; b) seizures of shipments and eradication; c) police and military casualties in the drugs war; d) arrests; e) legal and institutional reforms; f) signing international agreements; and g) acceptance of U.S. collaboration, as well as the presence of DEA agents in Mexican territory. Even when the improvement in these indicators was very evident during the Salinas administration, the degree of final commitment of the Mexican government to fight drugs remains unclear. However, the interest of President Salinas in getting NAFTA approved provoked a reduction in the limits of tolerance to drug trafficking. All this suggests that international interests constituted an important factor to propel governments into a more confrontational approach with the drug trafficking.
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, and Crime
Political Geography:
North America and Mexico

53533. Mexico's War on Drugs: No Margin for Maneuver

Author:
Jorge Chabat
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
Illegal drugs pose a threat to Mexico in many aspects: consumption, and violence and corruption provoked by the traffic of drugs in Mexican territory. However, even when consumption is a growing problem in Mexico, the main threat to Mexican stability comes from the corruption generated by the production and transportation of drugs in Mexico. Violence is also a problem, but it is difficult to assert that it constitutes right now a serious threat to Mexican governance. The Mexican government has been fighting this phenomenon for years in a context of institutional weakness and strong pressures from the United States. The fact that Mexico is a natural supplier of illegal drugs to the biggest market in the world, the United States, places the Mexican government in a very complex situation with no other alternative than to continue fighting drugs with very limited institutional and human resources. In this process, Mexico has no margin for maneuver to modify the parameters of the war on drugs.
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, and Crime
Political Geography:
United States, North America, and Mexico

53534. Structure and Choice in Foreign Policy Analysis

Author:
Peter Trubowitz
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
How do states choose their foreign policies? Most foreign policy analysis relies on structuralist reasoning to answer this question. Realist theory emphasizes a nation's position in the international distribution of power. A second approach focuses on domestic factors and stresses a country's political institutions. Both traditions focus on constraints on state behavior. The future of foreign policy analysis lies in finding ways to incorporate politics and choice into structuralist reasoning. Three main solutions have been proposed: theories that focus on how international pressures affect competing domestic coalitions, rational choices theories that analyze "two level games," and constructivism. This paper proposes an alternative model that views politicians as political entrepreneurs who seek to consolidate domestic power in national arenas that are conditioned by international constraints. The approach is developed and illustrated in a discussion of foreign policy choice in the United States.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States

53535. Turkey's Bold Step Into the Future: Will the EU Meet the Challenge?

Author:
Adam S. Albion
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
The triumph of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Turkey's November 3 national election represents a significant opportunity to demonstrate both to the West and the Muslim world that it is possible for a democratic, Islamic party to effectively lead a modern secular state. Such a demonstration of the compatibility of Islam and democracy could produce a catalytic and strategically important effect among moderate Muslims throughout the world. The AKP seems to have recognized the importance of this opportunity by pledging to continue with much-needed political and economic reforms and EU integration efforts. The EU and the West must not let this opportunity pass them by; they must continue to encourage Turkey on its path to economic and political reform by establishing a concrete timeline towards EU membership and by helping Turkey to overcome its current financial crisis. Rejection by the West at this critical juncture could have very damaging effects, not only for Turkey, but for the viability of moderate Islamic parties throughout the Muslim world.
Topic:
Economics and Religion
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

53536. Russia's Maternal and Infant Health Crisis: Socio-Economic Implications and the Path Forward

Author:
Stephen M. Massey
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Today, fewer than one in three Russian newborns is healthy, disease rates among Russian children are surging, and shrinking access to quality family planning and prenatal care has worsened the state of women's reproductive health across Russia. The health of Russia's infants and children is especially significant given the country's shrinking population and the mounting problems of infectious disease, rural poverty, illegal narcotics, and alcohol abuse – all contributing factors to poor birth outcomes. The long-term economic impact of unhealthy children born in the past decade is already a serious limiting factor to Russia's emergence as a strong economic partner and international actor. Many infant deaths and childhood illnesses could be prevented with expanded investments in infrastructure and education, improved access to quality care, and reform of Russia's healthcare sector – each of which is too costly for Russia to finance on its own. Untapped opportunities also exist for collaboration between Russian, European, and American civic groups, healthcare experts, scientists, and policy leaders that would have a positive impact on maternal and child health in Russia and beyond.
Topic:
Economics, Human Welfare, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

53537. The Federal Option for Afghanistan

Author:
Henry E. Hale
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
The future security and stability of Russia, Central Asia, and the Caucasus–all struggling to deal with the simultaneous forces of terrorism, crime, narcotics, poverty, and disease–require a successful political and economic transformation in Afghanistan. A federal system was rejected in favor of aunitary state structure for Afghanistan, but the government of Hamid Karzai has faced great difficulty extending central authority much beyond Kabul. New questions about state-building there and elsewhere in the region should compel policymakers to reconsider federalism among a range of options for how best to organize this complex and diverse society. Although critics charge that a federal solution to state organization enhances social cleavages and fosters instability, federalism could be aviable and effective option if constructed to minimize the power and influence of the demographically dominant group.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, Europe, Central Asia, Caucasus, Asia, and Kabul

53538. Transatlantic Energy Security and the Caspian Basin: Moving Towards a Common Agenda

Author:
Adam N. Stulberg and Hendrik Cosijn
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Once considered an impediment to stable development and a catalyst for a new “Great Game,” Caspian energy may play a stabilizing role in world markets and geopolitics after all. With the West's growing dependence on hydrocarbon imports, growing tensions in the Middle East, and Moscow's emergence as a major player in 21st century energy politics, the Caspian region is poised to become a focal point for cooperation between the United States, Europe, and Russia. Policymakers in Washington, Brussels, and Moscow share a common interest in preventing the Caspian Basin from lapsing into another Persian Gulf, where windfalls in oil revenues have fueled instability and extremism. They also recognize that efforts to extract and export Caspian energy must advance regional development and stability. Thus far, however, shared interests have not yielded real transatlantic partnership on Caspian energy issues. Different strategic orientations and preferred approaches for unlocking Caspian energy threaten to mar prospects for broadening and deepening transatlantic cooperation in the region. To date, the U.S., Europe, and Russia have pursued parochial interests in the Caspian Basin without much regard for each other. The time is ripe for American, European, and Russian policymakers to take stock of the burgeoning confluence of interests, mount a concerted effort to prevent backsliding, and cement a common agenda by forging a trilateral dialogue on Caspian energy issue.
Topic:
Security and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Washington, Asia, and Moscow

53539. The United States, Europe, and Russia: Toward a Global Energy Security Policy

Author:
David L. Goldwyn
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Together, the United States, Europe, and Russia can help to diversify the global energy supply by creating a Global Strategic Petroleum Reserve (GSPR) filled largely with oil from Russia and other states in the Caspian Basin. Such a move would mitigate U.S. and European dependence on Middle East oil and help to stabilize world oil prices. Other important beneficiaries of a GSPR would be the Asia-Pacific economies outside the OECD that currently lack strategic reserves. A GSPR offering access to China and other Asian economies would help anchor these states in an important, positive-sum arrangement that highlights shared energy security interests with Russia and the West. If managed responsibly, creating the GSPR will not antagonize OPEC countries, which themselves benefit from stable energy markets. Moreover, developing the GSPR will encourage the reform and modernization of Russian and other transition countries' energy economies and give real substance to collaboration on energy issues between Russia, the EU, and the U.S. If coupled with close collaboration on Caspian energy development, the creation of a GSPR would make U.S. and EU energy ties with Russia and its neighbors sources of substantial, long-term strength.
Topic:
Security and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Middle East, and Asia

53540. Ukraine and the West: Policies for Progress

Author:
Oleksandr Pavliuk and John E. Tedstrom
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
A limited window of opportunity has opened to advance democratization, the rule of law, and market economics in Ukraine. This unique situation is the result of economic growth since 2000, strong voter support for reformers in the March 2002 parliamentary elections, and a rearrangement of the strategic landscape since September 11, including positive shifts in Western relations with Russia. How Ukrainian leaders make use of this opportunity will have serious implications for Ukraine's integration with European and Euro-Atlantic institutions. To achieve success, Ukraine will have to deliver on substantive domestic reforms and demonstrate a genuine openness to integration. Leadership from the West is equally imperative; clear indications of the West's desire to see Ukraine succeed at home and in European integration will have a strong positive influence at the grassroots, which will in turn be decisive in the 2004 presidential elections. By contrast, if the West disengages now or fails to formulate a clear concept of its relations with Ukraine, voters will be less likely to support presidential candidates who advocate a European choice and the domestic change it requires. As a result, the likelihood that non-reformers will prevail in the 2004 presidential elections would increase, thereby jeopardizing Ukraine's long-term stability and its contributions to regional and global security.
Topic:
NATO, Democratization, and Economics
Political Geography:
Ukraine and Eastern Europe