Publication Year: within 25 Years

51. La inteligencia artificial en la Unión Europea

Author:: Cristina Puente, Celia Fernández Aller, Antoni Farriols Solá, Katherin Corredor, and Elisa Gutiérrez García
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:: La inteligencia artificial se ha consolidado como una tecnología de impacto sistémico, acelerada en los últimos años por la irrupción de la IA generativa y los grandes modelos de lenguaje, con efectos transversales en la economía, los servicios públicos y la vida social, y con profundas implicaciones éticas, laborales y geopolíticas. En este contexto de competencia estratégica entre Estados Unidos, China y la Unión Europea, el informe analiza la evolución tecnológica, los modelos fundacionales, las aplicaciones sectoriales y los riesgos asociados, subrayando la dependencia europea de infraestructuras y hardware externos, así como su posición de liderazgo normativo frente a un rezago en inversión, escalabilidad y talento. A partir de este diagnóstico, se examinan las iniciativas europeas emergentes, los desafíos de gobernanza global y las oportunidades para que la UE impulse un modelo de IA confiable, sostenible y centrado en las personas, que combine innovación, soberanía tecnológica, protección de derechos fundamentales y cooperación internacional en un entorno global cada vez más inestable.
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, Youth, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: Europe and Spain

52. Criterios para una fiscalidad saludable: Especial consideración a los productos con alto contenido en azúcar

Author:: Julio César Muñiz Pérez
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:: Especial consideración a los productos con alto contenido en azúcar La forma en que compramos y consumimos alimentos está cambiando, y la fiscalidad se ha convertido en una importante herramienta para promover la salud pública. Sin embargo, ¿Está funcionando adecuadamente la tributación actual sobre la alimentación? Recientemente hemos publicado un informe que analiza cómo debe diseñarse una «fiscalidad saludable» que sea verdaderamente efectiva, coherente con la normativa europea y justa para el consumidor. Lo que descubrirás en este informe: Ingredientes, no productos: Por qué habría que poner el acento en el “ingrediente objetivo” y no en penalizar categorías completas de alimentos. El IVA como mejor alternativa: Las ventajas de usar tramos de IVA diferenciados según el etiquetado, frente al empleo impuestos especiales. Evidencia vs. Recaudación: La necesidad de evaluar si estas medidas son eficaces para mejorar la salud o si solo generan un rechazo social. El papel de la industria: Cómo la colaboración y la innovación (I+D+i) pueden ser tanto o más eficaces que la simple aplicación de impuestos
Topic:: Political Science, Legislation, Public Policy, Public Health, Sugar, and Value-Added Tax (VAT)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

53. África ante la crisis de financiación para el desarrollo

Author:: Andrea Chamorro, Jaume Portell, Olga Namasembe, Luis García Blanch, and Romeo Gbaguidi
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:: La Fundación Alternativas les invita a debatir en Casa África en torno al Informe África 2026. En esta edición nos centramos en los retos y oportunidades que plantea un nuevo modelo de financiación al desarrollo a resultas de factores como la retirada de EEUU del sistema de la ayuda, con el desmantelamiento de la USAID y de las agencias de Naciones Unidas; la presencia creciente de China a través de su proyecto de la Franja y la Ruta; o nuevas prioridades en Europa como el aumento del gasto en defensa. Nuestro Informe ofrece un estudio en profundidad que reflexiona y elabora propuestas en torno a un nuevo modelo de financiación del desarrollo sostenible. Estamos en un momento crítico donde la UE y España deberían contribuir a la articulación de un nuevo modelo, más horizontal, participativo y eficaz. Abordaremos cuestiones como el estado actual de la deuda y el desarrollo en África: el nexo entre seguridad y desarrollo; las tensiones entre las agendas externas y los intereses africanos en el Sahel y África Occidental; el nuevo escenario de la cooperación española y europea; el papel del sector privado, o las perspectivas para el desarrollo africano tras la IV Cumbre de Financiación de Sevilla.
Topic:: Development, European Union, Geopolitics, Economy, and Financing
Political Geography:: Africa

54. Irán entre protestas y geopolítica

Author:: Xavier Villar
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:: Análisis de las protestas en Irán surgidas en un contexto de fuerte inflación y depreciación del rial —que perdió cerca de la mitad de su valor frente al dólar en 2025— y que, tras iniciarse como una movilización de carácter económico encabezada por comerciantes y pequeños empresarios, derivaron rápidamente en expresiones de descontento político más amplio. Aunque las manifestaciones se han extendido a numerosas ciudades y han adquirido una notable visibilidad social, su escala y composición difieren de ciclos previos, como los de 2009 o 2019, y hasta ahora no se han producido deserciones significativas en las fuerzas de seguridad que permitan hablar de un cambio de régimen inminente. El artículo subraya además las dificultades para verificar cifras de víctimas debido al bloqueo informativo, matiza la idea de un rechazo político unánime al régimen y sitúa las protestas en un marco político-estratégico más amplio, marcado por la posición geográfica de Irán, sus recursos energéticos y la competencia internacional entre Estados Unidos y China.
Topic:: Regime Change, Sanctions, Economy, Protests, Inflation, Transatlantic Relations, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China, Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

55. Universidad dual: Formación innovativa para el futuro profesional

Author:: Vicent Climent-Ferrando
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:: El dinámico mercado laboral actual exige una formación universitaria más ágil y relevante. A menudo, la evolución curricular de las universidades no sigue el ritmo de la innovación empresarial, generando una brecha entre la academia y las necesidades del sector productivo. La Universidad Dual surge como una solución clave, integrando la formación académica con la experiencia práctica en empresas. Este modelo no solo impulsa la actualización de los currículos, sino que también eleva la empleabilidad de los estudiantes al ofrecerles un entorno de aprendizaje real y aplicado. Sin embargo, su implementación presenta desafíos importantes: asegurar la calidad educativa, invertir en la capacitación del personal docente en las empresas y garantizar el equilibrio entre el estudio y el trabajo para los estudiantes. Desde Fundación Alternativas, abordamos estos retos. Presentamos un Policy Paper y una jornada de debate dedicados a analizar en profundidad el modelo de formación dual universitaria. Nuestro objetivo es evaluar su estado actual y proponer recomendaciones de política pública que faciliten su adopción progresiva, minimizando los riesgos asociados a esta transformación.
Topic:: Education, Markets, Labor Issues, and Public Policy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

56. Hacia la Ley de Chips 2.0

Author:: Emilio García García
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:: En este documento elaborado por Emilio García García se aborda la revisión de la Ley de Chips de la UE, que tuvo su origen en la crisis de la cadena de suministros posterior a los confinamientos para contener la pandemia de la COVID-19. La Comisión Europea ha acelerado su proceso de revisión junto con la globalidad de la estrategia de semiconductores comunitaria. En un escenario de inestabilidad geopolítica, el ejecutivo de la UE ha señalado la industria de semiconductores como una de las claves de la soberanía tecnológica del Viejo Continente, motivando así la urgencia del proceso. La ya denominada Ley de Chips 2.0 debe tener en cuenta los éxitos y fracasos de la estrategia actual, así como los cambios geopolíticos y del entorno tecnológico y de mercado. Se presenta en el documento un resumen de estas circunstancias y recomendaciones para la próxima revisión de la norma. Si bien destacamos la importancia de la nueva Ley, la nueva política industrial y comercial europea para semiconductores debe trascender el marco de una directiva o reglamento, y la implementación de las recomendaciones de la sección final requiere cambios en otros instrumentos de la UE y nuevas herramientas.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, Law, European Union, Geopolitics, Political Science, Public Policy, and CHIPS
Political Geography:: Europe and Spain

57. Ciencia, Industria y Competitividad

Author:: Gonzalo León, Francisco Marín, Carlos Marti Sempere, Raquel Jorge, and María Peñate
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:: La Fundación Alternativas analiza la evolución del sistema de I+D en España en el contexto internacional y geopolítico, destacando los grandes cambios recientes en ciencia, tecnología e innovación. El informe subraya que España dispone de capacidades competitivas en áreas clave como biotecnología, comunicaciones, software o IA, y puede contribuir al fortalecimiento tecnológico de la UE. Ante el ascenso de China, la inestabilidad global y la creciente importancia de la seguridad y la soberanía tecnológica, el texto defiende la necesidad de reformar el sistema español de I+D, mejorar su gestión y alinearlo con una política industrial europea más ambiciosa. El objetivo final es reforzar la competitividad, la autonomía tecnológica y el papel estratégico de España en Europa.
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, Youth, Digital Culture, Industry, and Competition
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Spain

58. Political Violence in America: Public Perceptions, Polarization, and Accountability

Author:: PRRI Staff
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:: Two-thirds of Americans (67%) believe political leaders’ failure to condemn violent rhetoric contributes a lot to violent actions in society. Majorities of Americans also believe that false or misleading information generated by AI (64%) and public displays of hate symbols (61%) contribute a lot to violent actions in society, while smaller majorities believe easy access to guns and harsh and violent political language are also drivers (both 53%). While 51% of Republicans believe public displays of hate symbols contribute a lot to violence, 76% of Democrats do. Fewer than half of Republicans (46%) believe that harsh and violent political language contributes a lot to violence in society; white evangelical Protestants are the only group of religious Americans in which a minority (45%) share that view. Very few Americans support hostile and violent actions by their political allies to advance important political goals. Very few Americans justify imprisoning a political opponent without a trial if that person poses a clear danger to the country (12%); damaging or destroying property as a form of protest (7%); pushing, shoving, or punching a political opponent (6%); posting the home address or private phone number of a political opponent online so their family will be harassed (5%); or killing a political opponent if that person poses a clear danger to the country (5%). While very strong majorities of Americans over the age of 50 completely disagree that violent and harsh actions may justify political outcomes, such sentiments are less widely shared among younger Americans, especially those who are under 30. More than three in four Americans disagree that violence may be needed to save the country; views are similar across partisan groups, though they have shifted some throughout the year. Most Americans (77%) disagree that “because things have gotten so far off track, true American patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save our country,” compared with 20% of those who agree. Agreement about the potential need for political violence has decreased significantly among Republicans since President Donald Trump’s reelection in November 2024; agreement among Democrats has remained low over time but increased slightly in the past year. Since early 2021, support for political violence has varied across religious groups. Support among white Christians has declined since the 2024 election, though white evangelical Protestants continue to show higher support than white Christians overall. Support for political violence remains highest among Christian nationalism Adherents and lowest among Rejecters. Americans’ views on who is most responsible for political violence are deeply polarized, split largely along partisan and religious lines. Democrats overwhelmingly attribute most responsibility for political violence to right-wing groups (73%), while Republicans attribute most responsibility to left-wing groups (72%). While more Christians of color and non-Christians attribute most responsibility to right-wing groups for most political violence today, white Christian groups attribute most responsibility to left-wing groups. Most Christian nationalism Adherents (73%) and Sympathizers (64%) attribute responsibility to left-wing groups, while most Rejecters (72%) attribute responsibility to right-wing groups. Christian nationalism Skeptics are divided. Americans’ views are strongly divided by party and religion on whether National Guard deployments in American cities cause more violence than they prevent. A slim majority of Americans (52%) agree that deploying the National Guard to patrol American cities may cause more violence than it prevents. Democrats (80%) and independents (60%) are far more likely than Republicans (23%) to agree. Most Christians of color and non-Christians agree that these deployments cause more violence, while white Christian groups are far less likely to do so. Agreement is particularly lower among white evangelical Protestants (29%). Christian nationalism Rejecters (80%) are the most likely to agree, followed by Skeptics (54%), Sympathizers (37%), and Adherents (26%). Opposition to Trump’s Jan. 6 pardons is widespread, with notable exceptions among Republicans, white Christian groups, and Christian nationalism Adherents and Sympathizers. Most Americans (68%) oppose “President Trump’s pardoning of over 1,500 people convicted for their role in the attacks on the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021,” compared with 29% who favor it. Republicans (63%) are far more likely to favor these pardons than independents (22%) and Democrats (4%). White Christian groups, particularly white evangelical Protestants (58%), are more likely than non-Christians (24%), Christians of color (19%), and unaffiliated Americans (18%) to favor Trump’s Jan. 6 pardons, as are Christian nationalism Adherents (61%) and Sympathizers (49%), compared with Skeptics (25%) and Rejecters (8%). Opposition to stripping citizenship and deporting U.S. citizens deemed a threat is widespread, with notable exceptions among Republicans, white evangelical Protestants, and Christian nationalism Adherents and Sympathizers. Four in ten Americans (41%) favor “stripping U.S. citizens of their citizenship and deporting them if they are determined to be a threat to the country.” Republicans (60%) are roughly twice as likely as independents (38%) and Democrats (27%) to agree. White evangelical Protestants (56%) are the only religious group with majority support for stripping U.S. citizens of their citizenship and deporting them, compared with fewer Hispanic Protestants (49%), white Catholics (48%), and white mainline Protestants (46%). Support among other religious groups is notably lower. Christian nationalism Adherents (67%) and Sympathizers (57%) are notably more likely than Skeptics (40%) and Rejecters (23%) to favor stripping U.S. citizens of their citizenship.
Topic:: Political Violence, Accountability, Misinformation, and Polarization
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

59. Mapping Christian Nationalism Across the 50 States: Insights from PRRI’s 2025 American Values Atlas

Author:: PRRI Staff
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:: Around three in ten Americans qualify as Christian nationalism Adherents or Sympathizers. One-third of Americans qualify as Christian nationalism Adherents (11%) or Sympathizers (21%), compared with two-thirds who qualify as Skeptics (37%) or Rejecters (27%). These percentages have remained stable since PRRI first asked these questions in late 2022, with a slight decline among Americans who qualify as Christian nationalism Rejecters, who peaked at 32% in June 2023 and declined to 26% by the end of 2025. White evangelical Protestants and Hispanic Protestants are most likely to hold Christian nationalist beliefs; Americans who frequently attend religious services, especially those who are white, are more likely to be Christian nationalists. White Christians (46%) are more likely than Christians of color (39%), non-Christians (13%), and religiously unaffiliated Americans (10%) to qualify as Christian nationalism Adherents and Sympathizers. White evangelical Protestants (67%) and Hispanic Protestants (54%) are the only major religious groups among whom a majority hold Christian nationalist beliefs. The majority of those who attend religious services weekly or more qualify as Christian nationalism Adherents or Sympathizers (54%), compared with 39% of those who attend at least a few times a year and 20% of those who seldom or never attend services. This correlation holds among those who pray outside of religious services and those who read religious texts. White Americans who attend religious services, pray, or read the Bible or other religious texts frequently are more likely than their Black and Hispanic counterparts to qualify as Christian nationalism Adherents and Sympathizers. Christian nationalism support is also strongly linked to party, media habits, age, education, and race. A majority of Republicans qualify as either Christian nationalism Adherents (21%) or Sympathizers (35%), compared with one-quarter of independents (7% Adherents and 18% Sympathizers) and less than one in five Democrats (5% Adherents and 12% Sympathizers). Two-thirds of Americans who most trust far-right news sources qualify as Christian nationalism Adherents (34%) or Sympathizers (31%), as do a majority of those who most trust Fox News (18% Adherents and 37% Sympathizers). Support for Christian nationalism is positively associated with lower education levels and older age; AAPI Americans are far less likely to be Christian nationalists than other Americans. Christian nationalist views predominate in the South and Midwest; support for Christian nationalism is strongly correlated in all 50 states with favorable views of President Donald Trump and the proportion of Republican representation in state legislatures. The states with the highest levels of support for Christian nationalism — which includes about half of their residents — are Arkansas (54%), Mississippi (52%), West Virginia (51%), Oklahoma (49%), and Wyoming (46%). Three states emerge with more than half of their white, non-Hispanic residents supporting Christian nationalism: Arkansas (59%), Mississippi (54%), and West Virginia (53%). The higher state residents scored on the Christian nationalism scale, the more likely they are to hold favorable views of Trump and the larger the proportion of Republican elected officials in their state legislatures. Christian nationalists are more likely than other Americans to support political violence and score high on PRRI’s Right-Wing Authoritarianism Scale. Three in ten Christian nationalism Adherents (30%) and one-quarter of Sympathizers (23%) agree that “because things have gotten so far off track, true American patriots may have to resort to violence to save the country,” compared with only 14% of Skeptics and 11% of Rejecters. Support for political violence among Christian nationalism Adherents was higher under President Joe Biden and declined after Trump’s reelection. Christian nationalism Adherents and Sympathizers score high on PRRI’s Right-Wing Authoritarianism Scale; scores for Skeptics are mixed, while Rejecters score low. Christian nationalism Adherents and Sympathizers overwhelmingly view Trump as a strong leader, while Skeptics and Rejecters overwhelmingly view him as a dangerous dictator. Christian nationalists also hold more extreme views about immigrants and are more likely to say mandatory vaccines for children should be illegal. Majorities of Christian nationalism Adherents (67%) and Sympathizers (53%) believe that “immigrants are invading our country and replacing our cultural and ethnic background.” Majorities of Christian nationalism Adherents (61%) and Sympathizers (54%) agree with “the U.S. government deporting undocumented immigrants to foreign prisons without due process.” While at least half of Christian nationalism Adherents and Sympathizers support birthright citizenship, majorities agree with “stripping U.S. citizens of their citizenship and deporting them if they are determined to be a threat to the country” (66% and 56%). Over four in ten Christian nationalism Adherents (44%) and one-third of Sympathizers (34%) say that mandatory vaccines for children should be illegal in all or most cases, compared with one-quarter of Skeptics and one in ten Rejecters.
Topic:: Politics, Religion, Ideology, and Christian Nationalism
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

60. Mapping Support for LGBTQ Rights Across the 50 States: Insights from PRRI’s 2025 American Values Atlas

Author:: PRRI Staff
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:: LGBTQ Americans trend younger, Democratic, liberal, and more religiously unaffiliated than other Americans. One in ten Americans identify as LGBTQ. Two in ten Americans ages 18-29 (20%) identify as LGBTQ, compared with smaller shares among those ages 30-49 (11%), ages 50-64 (5%), and ages 65 and older (4%). LGBTQ Americans are more likely to identify as Democrats (40%), compared with 28% of all Americans, and are nearly twice as likely to identify as politically liberal (51% vs. 26%, respectively). The majority of LGBTQ Americans identify as religiously unaffiliated (51%), compared with 27% of all Americans. Views on LGBTQ rights differ strongly by state. Massachusetts (85%), Maryland (82%), and Alaska (81%), along with the District of Columbia (82%), hold the highest support for nondiscrimination protections for gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transgender people, while Mississippi (60%), Wyoming (57%), and Arkansas (53%) show the lowest support. Massachusetts (72%), Hawaii (71%), Vermont (71%), and Connecticut (70%), along with the District of Columbia (70%), show the strongest opposition to religiously based service refusals, while West Virginia (44%) shows the lowest opposition. The only states without majority support for same-sex marriage are Mississippi (47%) and Arkansas (50%). Massachusetts (85%), Rhode Island (85%), and Vermont (81%) show the highest support. Except for Christian nationalism Adherents, strong majorities of Americans — including most people of faith — support nondiscrimination protections for LGBTQ individuals. Most Americans support nondiscrimination protections for LGBTQ people (72%), with Democrats (90%) being the most supportive, followed by independents (76%) and Republicans (56%). Majorities of most major religious groups support non-discrimination protections, though support is highest among non-Christians and the religiously unaffiliated. Christian nationalism Rejecters (91%) are the most likely to support nondiscrimination protections, followed by 77% of Skeptics, 61% of Sympathizers, and 42% of Adherents. Over the past decade, Americans ages 18-29 have shown a gradual decrease in support for LGBTQ nondiscrimination laws, from 80% in 2015 to 70% in 2025, largely driven by young Republicans, while seniors 65 and over have increased their support from 61% to 74% over the same period. Except for Republicans, Christian nationalism Adherents, and Sympathizers, most Americans continue to oppose religiously based service refusals for LGBTQ people. Most Americans oppose allowing small businesses to refuse service to LGBTQ people on religious grounds (59%), with Democrats (82%) more likely to oppose, compared with independents (60%) and Republicans (35%). Opposition among white Christians grew from 49% in 2015 to 55% in 2020, but has declined since to 46%. Opposition among Christians of color, non-Christians, and religiously unaffiliated Americans remains high. Christian nationalism Rejecters (83%) are the most likely to oppose religiously based refusals for LGBTQ people, followed by 62% of Skeptics, 44% of Sympathizers, and 32% of Adherents. Support for same-sex marriage remains high for most Americans, but partisanship, religious affiliation, and Christian nationalist views are linked to differing opinions. Support for same-sex marriage remains higher today (65%) than in 2015 (53%). Today, Republicans (49%) are notably less likely than Democrats (83%) and independents (69%) to support same-sex marriage. Majorities of most religious groups support same-sex marriage, except for Latter-day Saints (47%), Hispanic Protestants (45%), white evangelical Protestants (37%), Muslims (37%), and Jehovah’s Witnesses (19%). Nearly all Christian nationalism Rejecters (93%) and three-fourths of Skeptics (73%) support same-sex marriage, compared with 46% of Sympathizers and 22% of Adherents. Except for young Americans under 30, support for same-sex marriage has steadily grown across older age groups, gender, race, and education levels. While most Americans agree that transgender people deserve the same rights and protections as other Americans, just 40% oppose laws that require transgender people to use bathroom of their sex assigned at birth. Seven in ten Americans (71%) agree that “transgender people deserve the same rights and protections as other Americans,” including most Democrats (88%), independents (77%), and Republicans (57%). Except for Christian nationalism Adherents (40%), solid majorities across all religious groups, Christian nationalism groups, age, gender, race, and education levels agree that transgender people deserve the same rights as other Americans. The majority of Americans (56%) favor laws that require transgender individuals to use bathrooms that correspond to their sex at birth, with most Republicans (81%) in favor, compared with 55% of independents and 32% of Democrats. Americans who agree transgender people deserve the same rights and protections as other Americans are less likely to favor laws that require transgender individuals to use bathrooms that correspond to their sex assigned at birth than those who disagree that transgender people deserve the same rights (49% vs. 77%).
Topic:: Human Rights, Religion, Discrimination, LGBT+, Transgender, and Christian Nationalism
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

61. The Case for Legal Reform in the IDF

Author:: Gabi Siboni
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The war has exposed a troubling pattern of legal encroachment on the battlefield, with the legal system shifting from a supporting role to a dominant force shaping security outcomes—at times at the expense of victory and at increased risk to soldiers. This paper proposes reforms to restore the balance between legal advice and security needs, remove self-imposed constraints, and return the IDF to a single clear objective: decisive victory
Topic:: Security, Armed Forces, Reform, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

62. Turkey–Israel Relations: Strategic Context and Policy Considerations

Author:: Gabi Siboni and Erez Winner
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Between Ankara’s regional ambition, ideological and religious zeal, and economic vulnerability—implications for Israel’s security and diplomacy
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Economy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

63. As Erdogan Tightens His Grip on Syria, What Can Israel Do?

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Following the agreement between the al-Sharaa regime and the Kurds, the consolidation of Turkish influence in Syria presents strategic dilemmas for Israel
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Kurds, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Ahmad al-Sharaa
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Syria

64. What Lies Beneath: Hybrid Threats to Taiwan’s Submarine Cables and the Contest in the Information Domain

Author:: Aurelio Insisa
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Between 2023 and 2025, multiple disruptions affected Taiwan’s submarine cables, a critical yet vulnerable infrastructure essential to the island’s connectivity and security. Against the backdrop of China’s diplomatic, economic and military pressure targeting Taiwan, these disruptions are generally defined as “grey zone operations”. Yet, reframing them as hybrid threats allows for a better understanding of how specific threats to the infrastructure domain can spill over in the information domain. Disruptions to submarine cables may be exploited by threat actors to erode trust in domestic institutions and destabilise society. Uncertainty in the information domain emerging from these disruption presents opportunities for Taiwanese authorities to mobilise public support, international partners and resources to enhance infrastructure resilience. A strategic communications approach drawing on the experience of the EU can strengthen response through enhanced coordination among institutions, coherent messaging, constructive public engagement and improved awareness of information-domain contestation. An effective adoption of this approach may mitigate risks from threat actors while reinforcing the capacity of Taiwanese authorities to safeguard critical infrastructure and maintain societal trust.
Topic:: Infrastructure, Disinformation, Hybrid Threats, and Submarine Cable
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and Asia

65. Europe’s Migration Governance Dilemma

Author:: Elena Potitò
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The EU’s migration governance model increasingly relies on externalisation, which is widely criticised for lacking accountability and failing to respect fundamental rights. This model is particularly pronounced in the Western Balkans, where infringements of procedural rights and violent practices against migrants are frequently reported. If the EU fails to reconcile its own values with its migration policies, it will further undermine its international credibility, at the expense of individuals attempting to reach EU borders.
Topic:: Migration, Governance, European Union, Refugees, Borders, and Externalization
Political Geography:: Europe and Balkans

66. Netanyahu’s Long Game to Reorder the Middle East

Author:: Akram Zaoui
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: As the inspirator of the ongoing war in the Middle East, Netanyahu’s actions must be read through decades of political action. US participation in the war marks the apex of years of manoeuvring in Washington to reshape the region. Goals sought include obliteration of regional strategic threats and normalisation with Arab countries from a position of undisputable strength.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Normalization, Benjamin Netanyahu, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

67. Deconstructing Kosovo's relations with Turkiye - Between Reality and Expectations

Author:: Asllan Zenunaj
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: This paper examines the evolution of relations between Kosovo and Türkiye from Kosovo’s declaration of independence in 2008 to 2025, with a specific focus on the security dimension of this partnership. Its central aim is to analyse how Türkiye’s foreign policy tools and priorities toward Kosovo have evolved under the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and how these changes are perceived domestically in Kosovo, particularly in light of Kosovo’s stated Euro-Atlantic aspirations. The analysis reveal change and continuities in Türkiye’s engagement, complementing an early emphasis on historical, religious and cultural narratives associated with “Neo-Ottomanism” to a more pragmatic “Erdoganism”, an interest-driven approach, particularly evident after 2022. The initial engagement under the AKP was heavily heavily influenced by Ahmet Davutoğlu's “Strategic Depth” doctrine, which emphasized soft power, shared heritage, and a “zero problems with neighbors” policy. This included religious diplomacy through institutions like the Diyanet (Presidency of Religious Affairs) and TIKA (Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency), which promoted a shared Sunni-Hanafi Islamic identity and renovated Ottoman-era heritage sites. The paper argues this has complimented by a more assertive “Erdoganism”, which combines strategic depth with hard-power tools, particularly economic and defense cooperation, where Türkiye has become a crucial partner in modernizing the Kosovo Security Force through the provision of advanced military hardware and joint industrial projects. Additionally, Türkiye’s command of KFOR in 2023 and 2025 underscores its central position in regional security underlying the strong coordination between the bilateral agreements within the spirit of NATO’s formal structure and coordination with key allies like the United States. The paper also finds out that the Strategic partnership between Türkiye and Kosovo can be seen as exceeding its line between cooperation and interference in Kosovo’s domestic affairs, nevertheless these perceptions often derive from the misconceptions regarding the excessive use of Ankara’s soft-power tools. Henceforth, although Türkiye has sought to shape the country’s cultural narratives and public discourse, leveraging historical memory and kinship ties to project influence within local institutions and communities, there is a notable divergence between public perception and strategic reality. While an overwhelming 91% of Kosovars view Türkiye favorably, strategic allegiance remains firmly with the United States, indicating that popular support is emotive and pragmatic rather than an ideological endorsement of Türkiye’s political model. The paper recommends that Kosovo navigate this complex dynamic by supporting the transition from personalized “brotherhood diplomacy” toward a more structured, transparent, and institutionalized state‑to‑state partnership, one that avoids political interference on either side, remains embedded within NATO‑compatible frameworks, and is clearly communicated as complementary to Kosovo’s Euro‑Atlantic integration. Such an approach would allow Kosovo to maximize the benefits of its partnership with Türkiye while safeguarding its secular, independent, and democratic principles.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Partnerships
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Kosovo, and Balkans

68. With imports of around €900 million in 2025, is Kosovo moving toward a potential dependency on China’s supply chain?

Author:: Ramadan Ilazi
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: KCSS publishes new paper on Kosovo’s rising imports from China and supply‑chain risks Prishtina, February 20, 2026: The Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS) has published a new discussion paper in its Secure Futures Series examining whether Kosovo’s rapidly growing imports from China could be placing the country on a trajectory toward supply‑chain dependency, and what this might mean for Kosovo’s governance, resilience, and Euro‑Atlantic integration and alignment. Authored by Dr. Ramadan Ilazi, the paper notes that Kosovo imported approximately €920 million worth of goods from China in 2025, making China Kosovo’s third‑largest important partner after Germany, and Türkiye, despite Kosovo’s free trade agreement with Ankara, and no diplomatic relations with Beijing. The analysis highlights that Kosovo’s imports from China have expanded steadily and doubled over the past four years, with China now accounting for around 13 percent of Kosovo’s imports. “For KCSS, focusing on unwanted foreign influence in the Kosovo is about anticipating how economic exposure can translate into political leverage, and security and strategic vulnerabilities,” said Mentor Vrajolli, Executive Director of KCSS. “As Kosovo deepens trade ties with China, despite the absence of normal diplomatic relations, this trend deserves serious attention for its potential ramifications on Kosovo’s longer‑term positioning in relation to the United States and the European Union.” The paper situates Kosovo’s evolving trade pattern within the wider Western Balkans context, where several countries have already experienced politically contentious engagement with China through large‑scale infrastructure loans, procurement practices, and technology cooperation. It underscores that, unlike many of its neighbors, Kosovo has remained at political distance from Beijing, however, the paper argues that dependence can develop also quietly through market dynamics and supply chains. “The purpose is not to be alarmist,” said Dr. Ramadan Ilazi, author of the paper. “The concern is the direction of travel of our country, since imports from China have doubled since 2021, while Kosovo has almost no exports to China and no formal mechanisms for economic dispute‑resolution. In a system, such as China’s, where state and economy are not only closely intertwined, but in practice, one, economic cooperation is rarely politically neutral and especially when the country in question does not even recognise Kosovo and consistently supports Serbia’s position in international forums.” The paper points to relevant experiences, such as Lithuania’s trade disruption following tensions over Taiwan representation and South Korea’s economic exposure during the THAAD dispute, to illustrate how economic links can become instruments of pressure when political disagreements arise. The discussion paper also flags the broader normative dimension, arguing that Chinese engagement in the region has often operated in ways that can undercut rule‑of‑law standards, including through practices such as lex specialis in procurement in other Western Balkan contexts.
Topic:: Risk, Trade, Imports, Supply Chains, and Dependency
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, Kosovo, and Balkans

69. The Evolution and Ramifications of the Iran-Saudi Rivalry Through Multiple Lenses: A Review of Mabon, Fraihat and Mohammad

Author:: Ahmet Furkan Özyakar
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: This review endeavors to identify key themes and critical perspectives discernible in the scholarship of Simon Mabon’s The Struggle for Supremacy in the Middle East: Saudi Arabia and Iran, Ibrahim Fraihat’s Iran and Saudi Arabia: Taming a Chaotic Conflict, and Talal Mohammad’s Iranian-Saudi Rivalry since 1979: In the Words of Kings and Clerics, who have meticulously investigated Iranian-Saudi relations in the Middle Eastern context. Since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, bilateral relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia have assumed paramount importance in elucidating the multifaceted political, religious, cultural, economic, and societal dynamics of the Middle East. The postrevolutionary trajectory brought a volte-face to relations, instigating a protracted period of rivalry and conflict spanning four decades, thereby catalyzing the escalation of conflicts across the Middle East. Both countries perceive each other as existential security threats, while concurrently aspiring for regional hegemony. Amidst this backdrop, seminal events such as Saudi Arabia’s support of Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), the recalibration of the political landscape after the United States (US)-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, the reverberations of the Arab Spring, the execution of Nimr al-Nimr1 in 2016, and the Yemen Civil War have markedly intensified the discord in bilateral relations between Riyadh and Tehran. Although there have been short periods of restrained rapprochement and diplomatic overtures, the prevailing atmosphere of acrimony and relentless pursuit of dominance, both regionally and within the greater Islamic sphere, determine the framework of their relations. Consequently, pejorative labels such as “suspicion”, “infidel”, “enemy”, and “confrontation” often feature in describing the complicated dynamics characterizing Saudi-Iranian relations.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Hegemony, Book Review, Rivalry, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia

70. The Image of Imperial Russia as an Enemy in the Iranians’ Collective Memory

Author:: Saeed Khavarinejad
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: This research tried to uncover the historical factors that have instilled a deep-rooted distrust of Russia in the Iranians’ collective memory. The researcher employed a case study strategy to examine historical empirical data and analyzed the consequences of the conflicts between Persia/Iran and Imperial Russia through collective trauma theory. The research discovered that 1) the 9th–12th clashes and the Russo-Persian Wars in the 17th–19th centuries and their subsequent treaties of Gulistan, Turkmenchay, and later, Akhal, and 2) Imperial Russia’s interventions in Iran during Constitutional Revolution, including the shelling of the Iranian Parliament in 1911, threatening Iranian government by issuing two ultimatums in 1911, the occupation and atrocity against Iranians in Tabriz in 1909–1918, the shelling of the Holy Shrine in Mashhad in 1912, and occupying Iran during Persian Campaign in the First World War in 1914–1918, which later followed with Soviet occupation from 1941 to 1946 in World War II, were among the primary factors which led to distrust of Russia in Iranian collective memory to the present. The evidence for anti-Russian sentiments in Iranian collective memory was identified as contempt in historiographical and literary works, hatred in religious circles, and Russophobia and conspiracy theories among Iranian politicians. The author concluded that the image of Imperial Russia as an enemy in the collective memory of Iranians has been shaped by the transgenerational and lasting effects of the memory of historical events, making the feeling of victimization toward Russia an integral part of Iranian contemporary identity.
Topic:: Imperialism, War, History, Literature, Intervention, Collective Memory, and Distrust
Political Geography:: Russia, Iran, and Middle East

71. Letter from Joseon to Korea: International Politics of the Korean Peninsula

Author:: Muhammad Eren Yıldırım
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: South Korea has indispensable military relations with the United States (US), especially in the context of its hostile relations with North Korea. In addition, China’s giant economic power makes South Korea reluctant to abandon its relations with China. Yet another significant factor complicating the regional dynamics for South Korea is the unresolved historical issues inherited from the imperial exploitation by the Japanese Empire on the Korean peninsula. This book aims to replace the narrative of South Korea’s as an “agent” in the global arena, considering its historical values and above-mentioned transforming conditions, with a multifaceted approach called “strategic pragmatism.” The author asks the following questions: what resources does South Korea have in its foreign policy-making processes?, what is its strategy based on these resources?, and what are the sources of the fundamental beliefs that construct the policymakers’ perception of South Korea’s foreign policy strategy?
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Book Review, Regional Politics, and Strategic Pragmatism
Political Geography:: China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America

72. Power of Bonding and Non-Western Emerging Great Powers Engagement: Comparing China and India’s Soft Power Strategy in Pakistan

Author:: Abdur Rahman Fuad
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: Power of Bonding and Non-Western Emerging Great Powers Engagement: Comparing China and India’s Soft Power Strategy in Pakistan by Md. Nazmul Islam is a scholarly exploration that pioneers new perspectives in International Relations. It offers a unique and fresh insight into how non-Western emerging great powers, specifically China and India, utilize soft power strategies to engage with Pakistan. The significance of this four-chapter book lies in its departure from traditional Western-centric viewpoints, providing a distinct lens to comprehend the geopolitical and cultural strategies of these major Asian powers. This unique perspective on non-Western soft power will intrigue scholars, policymakers, and individuals interested in international relations.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Book Review, Soft Power, and Emerging Powers
Political Geography:: Pakistan, China, India, and Asia

73. Myths of Modern History: From the French Revolution to the 20th Century World Wars and the Cold War

Author:: Klevis Kolasi
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Abstract:: Jacques R. Pauwels’ Myths of Modern History offers a bold and accessible critique of the dominant narratives shaping our understanding of modern history, from the French Revolution to the present. As the culmination of the author’s acclaimed trilogy (The Great Class War 1914–1918, The Myth of the Good War, and Big Business and Hitler), this work provides a concise counter-history of twelve key events, analyzed in twelve chapters, that have helped define the modern world. Pauwels deconstructs myths perpetuated by the media, elites, and conventional historiography —myths that promote a sanitized and benevolent view of capitalism’s role. In doing so, he challenges readers to reconsider historical processes and their systemic causes.
Topic:: Cold War, War, History, Capitalism, Book Review, and French Revolution
Political Geography:: Global Focus

74. The Asian 21st Century

Author:: Azhar Waqar
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: “The Asian 21st Century” is a compilation of essays and articles by Kishore Mahbubani that covers various topics related to the transition of power especially in the context of the geopolitical and economic rise of Asia. In this book, instead of giving an overarching definition of Asia, the author focuses on certain countries, particularly China, Japan, South Korea, India and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member countries. The book has been divided into four sections; the first section is titled “The End of Era of Western Domination”, the second “The Asian Renaissance”, the third is comprised of articles related to “The Peaceful Rise of China”, and the last one is titled “The Globalization, Multilateralism and Cooperation.”
Topic:: Economics, Geopolitics, Book Review, and ASEAN
Political Geography:: Japan, China, India, Asia, and South Korea

75. Understanding Global South Perspectives on Taiwan

Author:: Henrietta Levin and Hugh Grant-Chapman
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: To develop a better understanding of Global South perspectives on cross-Strait dynamics and Taiwan’s engagement with the developing world, the CSIS Freeman Chair in China Studies convened an international task force consisting of 20 leading scholars and practitioners from Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. Over the course of four workshops, task force members analyzed the increasing support that many Global South countries have offered for Beijing’s position on Taiwan, and how U.S. policy affects the position of Global South countries. They also considered opportunities for Taiwan to enhance its economic, diplomatic, and people-to-people engagement across the Global South. This brief summarizes the key takeaways from the task force’s deliberations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Global South, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, and Global South

76. Europe Needs an ASAP Program for Air Defense

Author:: Max Bergmann, Otto Svendsen, and Jonathan Burchell
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Operation Epic Fury, the ongoing U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, is consuming vast quantities of air defense interceptors—expensive munitions that were already in critically short supply before the operation was launched. European countries depend heavily on U.S.-produced air defense systems and munitions for their own defense and for protecting Ukraine. During the winter, Russian missiles and drones bombarded Ukrainian forces, as well as its cities and energy infrastructure, making air defense munitions vital to Ukraine’s survival. Europe now faces a looming crisis: The U.S.-made interceptors it needs, both for Ukraine today and for its own rearmament against Russia, may simply not be available. In response, European states should launch a crash program to rapidly expand production of European-made air defense systems and interceptors. Modeled on the European Union’s 2023 Act in Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP), a new “ASAP for Air Defense” would channel EU funds into European munitions and systems—such as the IRIS-T, SAMP/T, and NASAMS systems—to reduce dependence on U.S. suppliers for the medium-range and cruise missile defense systems where European alternatives exist.
Topic:: International Security, Geopolitics, Russia-Ukraine War, and Air Defense
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

77. Deepening Strategic Alignment: Priorities for the U.S.-Japan Alliance

Author:: Kristi Govella and Nicholas Szechenyi
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: With new leadership in both countries, Japan and the United States are facing an increasingly uncertain global environment. As Japan prepares to revise its core national strategy documents, it is a particularly important time for Tokyo and Washington to deepen their strategic alignment. Although bilateral cooperation continues to proceed relatively smoothly at the operational level, there is a pressing need to articulate a strategic vision to guide alliance priorities and facilitate effective implementation of common objectives.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Alliance, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

78. Monitoring Demilitarised Zones in the Age of Uncrewed and AI Systems: Lessons from the Korean DMZ

Author:: Michael M. Bosack
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP)
Abstract:: Demilitarised zones (DMZs) have demonstrated their utility in post-war peace processes. They separate forces, mitigating the risk of deliberate aggression or accidental incidents alike. However, the effective monitoring of DMZs can be challenging, because they tend to cover wide areas, sometimes with dangerous terrain replete with human-made and natural hazards. As such, parties responsible for monitoring DMZs rely on a passive posture where they simply respond to reported incidents, an active posture using personnel or technology wherever resources and the terrain will allow, or a combination of the two. With continued advances in uncrewed systems and artificial intelligence (AI), there are now ever-increasing calls for the employment of these technologies in DMZ monitoring functions. This is true of the Korean DMZ, a 240 km-long, 4 km-wide swathe of land that bifurcates the Korean Peninsula between the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (or North Korea) and the Republic of Korea (or South Korea). In this area, the South Korean government is seeking to enhance its monitoring capabilities by using uncrewed and AI-based systems. In theory, there are many benefits to this approach, but in practice, policymakers and practitioners must address five inter-related dilemmas to ensure that these technologies actually support peace implementation instead of contributing to unintended conflict and tension. The problems associated with these dilemmas are not insurmountable, but they require deliberate steps and conscious implementation to maximise the opportunities that modern technologies provide while mitigating their risks. The lessons from the Korean DMZ are applicable in any post-war demilitarized zone, including the one envisioned between Russia and Ukraine. This Policy Brief proceeds as follows. It first outlines the function of DMZs in post-war environments and the practical challenges associated with monitoring them. It then examines the potential advantages that uncrewed and AI-enabled systems offer in addressing these challenges. Next, it assesses the implications of five inter-related policy dilemmas – legal, moral, technological, practical, and security – that arise from introducing such systems into DMZ contexts. This analytical framework is then applied to the Korean DMZ as a contemporary case study. Finally, policy recommendations are advanced aimed at ensuring that the use of emerging technologies strengthens, rather than undermines, peace implementation and long-term stability in DMZs.
Topic:: Security, Science and Technology, Artificial Intelligence, Post-Conflict, and Demilitarized Zones (DMZs)
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

79. Managing the Transatlantic Relationship in the Absence of US Leadership: Understanding the Trump Administration’s National Security Strategy

Author:: Paul Fritch
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP)
Abstract:: The Trump administration’s December 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS) represents a radical shift in US foreign policy, involving a move from global leadership of a rules-based international order to unabashed nationalism and regional hegemony. The new strategy no longer views the country’s sprawling network of alliances and partnerships and its ability to attract and integrate high-level talent from around the world as unique strengths, but rather as vulnerabilities to be mitigated. However, as jarring as these substantive changes are, the document’s structural changes and the irregular process that produced it may prove more significant in demonstrating just how sharply Washington is turning away from 80 years of bipartisan foreign policy consensus. The change is evident not just in the Trump administration’s policies, but – crucially – in the decision-making process that produces them. The new NSS is best understood as the formalisation of the administration’s abandonment of traditional policy coordination and strategic planning itself, an effort that has included the removal of senior career diplomats, military commanders, and intelligence officers; the systematic dismissal of senior judge advocates general and inspectors general; and the firing of many National Security Council (NSC) staff. The collective result of these steps, which find their natural culmination in the NSS and the National Defense Strategy (NDS) that followed in January 2026, is a policymaking process that is less informed by objective intelligence and analysis, less constrained by legal and policy advice or alliance consultation, and thus more subject to impulsiveness and ideological influence. Both of these developments – a new “America First” nationalism that eschews multilateral constraints and an erratic decision-making process that produces unpredictable and often impracticable outcomes – require a fundamental assessment by the country’s partners of their approach to the United States, both bilaterally and within established multilateral frameworks. This Policy Brief examines the practical implications of the 2025 NSS and the dramatically changed decision-making process it represents. For transatlantic allies and other middle powers, the central question is no longer whether US strategy has changed, but how to operate effectively in an environment of reduced predictability and diminished US strategic anchoring.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, National Security, Transatlantic Relations, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

80. Representatives in Robes? How California Respondents think of Judicial Representation

Author:: Nancy Bays Arrington and Matthew Moore
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:: Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:: Many have identified the tension between conceptualizing judges as legal versus political actors. One dimension of this tension is the extent to which we should or do think of judges as political representatives, both broadly and in ways that are either similar to or distinct from elected political representatives. In this project, we address the role of judges as representatives and then assess whether and to what extent California residents think of judges as representatives. Using public opinion data of California residents from the CalSpeaks survey fielded in the spring of 2021, we find that about a third of respondents do consider judges representatives in some way. While we find no gender differences in perceptions of judicial representation and very limited racial differences, there are strong age differences: younger respondents were significantly more likely to indicate that judges are representatives in some way compared to older respondents. This project informs how Californians understand the role of the courts, which might have consequences for judicial legitimacy and effectiveness.
Topic:: Politics, Public Opinion, Representation, Legitimacy, and Judiciary
Political Geography:: California, North America, and United States of America

81. COVID-19 Relief Measures had Few Durable Post-Pandemic Effects on Renters

Author:: Benjamin Mark Reicher and Michael Kuehlwein
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:: Berkeley APEC Study Center
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic was responsible for an unprecedented crisis in the rental housing market, as families faced eviction as a consequence of pandemic lockdowns and resulting economic recession. In response, for the first time ever in US history, eviction moratoria were introduced to protect renters from being evicted for nonpayment; these were accompanied by several stimulus measures to support renters and the overall economy. This study asks whether these pandemic-era policies had any lingering effects after they had ceased to be implemented, by examining whether renters’ housing vulnerability at the state level saw any improvement in the post-pandemic years of 2022-23. For comparison, the study also evaluates the effects of variables reflecting economic fundamentals and renters’ housing burden. The findings suggest that the included policies had little effect on renters’ post-pandemic housing precarity.
Topic:: Economics, Public Policy, Eviction, COVID-19, Housing, Rent, and Housing Market
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

82. Lilliputians at the Gate: Small Individual Campaign Donations and Political Polarization in Western State Legislatures

Author:: Todd Lochner, Ellen Seljan, Madeleine MacWilliamson, and Valerie Naborska
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:: Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:: Scholars seek to understand campaign donor behavior and its effects on candidates. Researchers generally agree that individual donors are more ideologically extreme than most organizational donors but disagree as to whether small individual donors (those giving less than $200 per cycle) are especially correlated to extremist candidates. We study the relationship between small individual donors and legislators’ NPAT and CFscores for the California, Washington, and Oregon legislatures between 2016 and 2022. We find both that individual donors correlate to more partisan legislators in general and that the correlation between donors and politically polarized legislators is even greater for small individual donors than for large individual donors in most cases.
Topic:: Politics, Campaign Finance, Campaign Donations, and State Legislature
Political Geography:: Washington, California, North America, United States of America, and Oregon

83. Political participation across generational cohorts in Uganda

Author:: Ssenkumba Muhammad and Kamal Yakubu
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: Drawing on Bartels and Jackman’s (2014) generational model of political learning, which posits that political attitudes and behaviours are shaped by the historical contexts in which individuals come of age, this study examines whether generational cohorts differ in patterns of political participation in Uganda. We identify three cohorts corresponding to key phases of Uganda’s political history: Gen A, socialised during periods of political instability prior to the Museveni era; Gen B, shaped under the one-party regime; and Gen C, who came of age following the reintroduction of multiparty politics in 2005. Using Afrobarometer Round 10 (2024) data from a nationally representative sample of adult Ugandans, we employ binary and ordinal logistic regression models to examine participation in both conventional and unconventional political activities. The results show that older cohorts are more likely to engage in conventional forms of participation, such as voting and contacting elected representatives, while younger cohorts exhibit greater participation in unconventional activities, particularly protests. To assess whether these patterns reflect cohort-specific political socialisation or age-related life-cycle effects, we replicate the analysis using comparable Afrobarometer data from Tanzania, a country with a distinct political history. The Tanzanian results reveal broadly similar generational patterns in conventional participation, suggesting that these differences may reflect age-related dynamics rather than cohort-specific socialisation alone. However, the specific unconventional repertoires through which generational differences manifest appear to be conditioned by each country’s political environment. These findings call into question strong cohort based interpretations of political participation and underscore the importance of distinguishing generational from life-cycle effects in studies of political behaviour in Africa.
Topic:: Democracy, Freedom, Political Participation, and Citizen Engagement
Political Geography:: Uganda, Africa, and East Africa

84. Coethnics covote in Africa: Studying electoral cleavages with a covoting regression model

Author:: Carl Müller-Crepon and Nils-Christian Bormann
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: Ethnicity is an important cleavage in Africa, yet its influence on voting is contested. Existing micro-level analyses often focus on electoral support for a subset of candidates or parties, while meso- and macro-level approaches infer individual motivations from aggregate outcomes. The risk of selection bias arises from the former approach, while omitted-variable bias may result from the latter. Our new covoting regression (CVR) tackles several of these challenges. It estimates the effect of coethnicity on the probability that pairs of voters covote for the same party/candidate while conditioning on other characteristics shared between them. Thereby, CVR mirrors the micro foundations of widely used aggregate indicators, such as the Herfindahl-Hirschman indices of party concentration and ethnic homogeneity. Our data consist of dyadic comparisons between respondents from Afrobarometer surveys. Pooling across 27 countries, coethnicity increases covoting intentions by 17 percentage points. The effect of coethnicity is driven by politically relevant groups and covoting for ethnic parties. It is consistent across institutionally diverse countries and at least four times larger than that of other cleavages. Beyond ethnicity, we address key issues in studying electoral consequences of socioeconomic cleavages and bridge gaps between levels of analysis.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Ethnicity, and Voting
Political Geography:: Africa

85. Climate change and child abuse

Author:: Abreham Adera
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: Climate shocks strain household resources, increase stress, and weaken protective structures, all of which may elevate the risk of child abuse. Yet little is known about how climate change affects children, particularly in the Global South. This paper addresses this gap by examining the relationship between drought exposure and attitudes toward child beating in sub-Saharan Africa. We combine individual-level data from the Afrobarometer survey with geocoded drought data from the Geocoded Disasters Dataset (GDIS). We use a spatiotemporal analysis that exploits differences in when and where the Afrobarometer surveys were conducted and when and where droughts occurred. We find that individuals living in drought-affected areas are more likely to justify physically disciplining children. These effects are persistent, potentially with no pattern of decay over time. Mediation analysis of causal pathways suggests that drought increases food insecurity, which raises the risk of intimate partner violence (IPV), and that IPV, in turn, significantly heightens the likelihood of child abuse. These findings highlight the broader social consequences of climate-related shocks and suggest that interventions targeting household stress and IPV norms may help mitigate the impact of drought on child welfare
Topic:: Climate Change, Intimate Partner Violence, Drought, and Child Abuse
Political Geography:: Africa

86. China's 2026-2030 Five-Year Plan: Continuing the Economic Model and Increasing Self-Reliance

Author:: Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: The latest five-year plan, adopted in March this year by the Chinese parliament, identifies industrial modernisation and the pursuit of technological independence as key to China’s economic development. It mentions increased consumption and improved social conditions, but these are not priorities. The development of modern industries is intended to increase the competitiveness of Chinese companies relative to entities from developed countries, including Poland. The direction outlined by the plan is another argument for strengthening the protection of the EU single market and supporting an active EU industrial policy.
Topic:: Economics, European Union, Economic Development, Modernization, Industry, and Competition
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, and Poland

87. The EU and Australia strengthen trade and security partnership

Author:: Patryk Kugiel
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: On 24 March, during a visit to Australia, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced the conclusion of negotiations on a free trade agreement and the establishment of a Security and Defence Partnership. These agreements are intended to help both sides diversify their trade, reducing dependence on China, whilst increasing resilience to US political and economic pressure. It also presents an opportunity for Poland to intensify its cooperation with Australia.
Topic:: European Union, Partnerships, Free Trade, Trade, and European Commission
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Poland, and Australia

88. International Echoes of El Salvador's Public Security Model

Author:: Barbara Midziak and Bartłomiej Znojek
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: El Salvador President Nayib Bukele’s success in improving domestic security results from implementing draconian measures (including mass arrests and a state of emergency that has lasted for four years) and from the dismantling of democratic mechanisms. While Honduras and Ecuador, for example, encountered limitations in copying that approach, the Salvadoran counter-crime model won strong endorsement from US President Donald Trump. This support, however, may foster a revival of authoritarian tendencies in Latin America, as his administration rewards authorities that cooperate closely with advancing US interests, regardless of whether or not they adhere to the rule of law.
Topic:: Crime, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Rule of Law, Donald Trump, Public Security, and Nayib Bukele
Political Geography:: Central America, El Salvador, Honduras, and Ecuador

89. Lee Jae-myung's Inter-Korean Policy

Author:: Oskar Pietrewicz
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: South Korea’s attempts to improve relations with North Korea have been unsuccessful. Although this is mainly due to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s (DPRK) reluctance to resume contacts with the Republic of Korea (ROK), an additional problem has been caused by the inconsistent actions of President Lee Jae-myung’s administration, which has been in office since June last year. The administration’s goal of ‘peaceful coexistence’ effectively means accepting reunification as unlikely, a prospect that is losing support in South Korean society. To avoid an escalation of tensions on the Korean Peninsula, South Korea could seek to cooperate with countries that regularly engage with the DPRK, such as Poland.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Poland

90. The ramifications of aid cuts on refugee lives: case of the Differentiated Assistance (DA) model and the Shirika Plan in Kenya

Author:: Fred Ikanda and Michael Owiso
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: International support has failed to keep pace with the growing numbers of refugees and internally displaced persons, thus creating a financing gap between their needs and available resources. The recent US withdrawal from funding development and humanitarian programs has only compounded this financing gap which has existed for more than a decade. In response to this, the international community – through Agenda 2030, the Grand Bargain, the 2016 New York Declaration, and the Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework (CRRF) – has advocated for a shift from seeing refugees as emergencies to integrating them into the host countries' developmental agenda. In Kenya, these policy proposals are most recently being implemented through the Shirika Plan, the Differentiated Assistance (DA) model, and development plans of refugee-hosting counties such as Turkana and Garissa. First, the Shirika Plan is a government-led initiative that was proclaimed in 2023 to realize the socio-economic inclusion of refugees within the local context in line with the progressive provisions of the Refugee Act of 2021. Implementation of this policy is yet to begin as it is pegged on elusive donor funding. Second, the DA model is led by the office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and the World Food Program (WFP) and is aligned with the Shirika Plan. The preparatory activities for DA were undertaken throughout 2024 and implementation commenced in August 2025. DA seeks to increase refugee self-reliance through livelihood interventions and providing support based on the specific needs and capabilities of different refugee households as opposed to the previous blanket support that was based on refugee registration status. However, implementation has so far only focused on reducing aid, without corresponding investment in self-reliance measures. DA and the Shirika Plan are framed in government and international circles as solutions for addressing funding shortfalls and fostering refugee integration by supporting self-reliance. However, there has been little progress in enhancing refugee self-reliance. At the same time, aid cuts are implemented based on a needs-categorisation of refugee households that proceeds without adequate background information. The lack of alternative livelihoods has exacerbated vulnerabilities and has sparked protests in refugee camps. Emerging evidence points to negative coping mechanisms, including higher school drop-out rates; reported cases of youths joining criminal religious groups; increased conflicts at family level; and rising cases of women becoming sex workers. This Policy Brief highlights the emerging ramifications of implementing DA that is anchored in the provisions contained in the Shirika Plan. The Brief also goes further to suggest recommendations for action to the government of Kenya and the international community. Key policy messages: • There is a need to enhance synergy between UNHCR and the Kenyan government such that the state implements the Shirika Plan alongside DA without premising its implementation on donor aid. • UNHCR needs to obtain more extensive household economic data and involve refugees in deciding who is most vulnerable to more accurately disaggregate refugee households into appropriate categories. • The Kenyan government and international actors need to closely monitor and address potential negative implications of implementing DA and the Shirika Plan.
Topic:: Development, Refugees, Displacement, Donors, UNHCR, and Aid Cuts
Political Geography:: Kenya and Africa

91. Beyond projects: the role of development partners in institutionalizing renewable energy innovations: lessons from the Global South

Author:: Lea Elsässer, Harald Fuhr, Anna Fünfgeld, Markus Lederer, Aparajita Banerjee, and HyunAh Yi
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Renewable energy has seen rapid uptake, particularly in the Global South. Solar energy projects have boomed in recent years, but uptake by countries is uneven. Beyond geophysical conditions, technological innovation, market dynamics and donor-driven “lighthouse projects”, political institutionalization has played a critical role in decarbonization. In this policy brief, which is based on extensive research from Global South case studies, we argue that political institutionalization is key to determining whether and how innovative solar initiatives become stabilized, scaled up, and mainstreamed. Drawing on the research project Institutionalizing Low Carbon Development in the Global South (INLOCADE) and expert contributions from a follow-up IDOS workshop, this policy brief synthesizes comparative policy-relevant findings on how institutionalization unfolds in various emerging economies of the Global South, including Brazil, Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Indonesia and South Africa. Key messages: • Political institutionalization – understood here as an enduring change of formal and informal rules and practices towards low-carbon development – is essential for making renewable energy projects sustainable by embedding them in conducive, stable governance frameworks. Isolated, donor-driven initiatives are at risk of provoking resistance and backlash, and of fading away once external support ends. • Multiple pathways for institutionalization exist. State leadership, subnational action, alliances between development partners and communities, and crisis-driven coalitions can enable institutionalization under different conditions. Policies should be tailored to the institutional realities of each context rather than using one-size-fits-all models. Similarly, development partners should assess local realities and adapt their strategies accordingly. • Distributive justice and participation must be actively supported. Political institutionalization can lead to inequitable outcomes and reinforce exclusionary practices. Development partners should take a proactive role by aligning their interventions with inclusive and equitable approaches to ensure support for marginalized groups leads to socially just transitions, not just box-ticking. • Crises can be opportunities. Energy shortages and climate shocks can disrupt fossil-fuel lock-ins and open the door to innovation. Development partners need flexible instruments and strategies to help translate crisis-driven experiments into durable institutional change. • Development partners are catalytic, not deci-sive. They can accelerate change by providing finance, technical expertise, and legitimacy, especially when working with domestic actors beyond national governments. German and EU development cooperation should place greater emphasis on strengthening domestic institutional environments, including regulatory stability, administrative capacity, and actor coalitions that embed projects in lasting policy and organizational change. This helps ensure donor interventions contribute to sustained low-carbon transitions beyond initial project cycles.
Topic:: Development, Global South, Innovation, and Renewable Energy
Political Geography:: Bangladesh, Indonesia, India, South Africa, Brazil, and Cambodia

92. Building social cohesion through livelihood support in climate-related internal displacement settings: evidence from Zimbabwe and Mozambique

Author:: Tomy Ncube and Susan S. Ekoh
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Climate-related extreme weather events are increasingly displacing communities across Southern Africa, with negative implications for social cohesion, livelihoods, and community resilience. Understanding how displacement erodes social cohesion is important for developing strategies for restoring it. Evidence shows that livelihood support interventions, for example, cash‑based assistance, in-kind transfers (agricultural inputs) up to skills development programs, are a pathway for mending or strengthening social cohesion in displacement contexts. Yet, in some cases, they can further fragment it. This requires strategies under which such interventions can be deployed to positively shape social cohesion outcomes. This Policy Brief synthesizes insights from qualitative research conducted from 2023 to 2025 with displaced communities and host populations in Zimbabwe (Chimanimani and Tsholotsho districts) and Mozambique (Guara Guara, Grudja and Praia Nova). It examines how livelihood interventions can either rebuild or further fragment social cohesion, identifies critical factors driving cohesion outcomes, and provides evidence-based recommendations for national governments, humanitarian actors, and development co-operation actors working in climate-displacement contexts across Southern Africa. In Zimbabwe, vertical social cohesion in displacement contexts is eroded by a lack of designated policies on displacement, leading to poor socioeconomic outcomes for displaced individuals; ad hoc recovery and reconstruction efforts that undermine durable solutions and long-term recovery; and a lack of accountability infrastructure that undermines trust in the government. In Mozambique, the slow implementation and unequal distribution of recovery interventions undermine cooperation between communities and the institutions involved in post-disaster recovery efforts. This has led to large-scale returns of people to high-risk areas. Drawing insights from both case studies, we provide key recommendations and conditions for implementing livelihood support to achieve social cohesion in climate-related displacement contexts. Key policy messages • Livelihood interventions can lead to maladaptation if not supported by strong governance mechanisms including policy frameworks and institutional coordination in planning and implementation. • People-centred, area-based approaches to livelihood programming that account for pre-displacement livelihoods and support post-displacement transitions, while benefiting both displaced populations and host communities, should be adopted. One-size-fits-all interventions risk undermining economic recovery and social cohesion. • Horizontal and vertical social cohesion indicators should be embedded in livelihood programs from the outset to assess the social impacts before and after implementation. • Inclusive, participatory decision-making in the delivery of livelihood support programs should be mandated to prevent exclusionary practices that erode trust in institutions.
Topic:: Climate Change, Social Cohesion, Internal Displacement, Economic Recovery, and Livelihoods
Political Geography:: Africa, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe

93. Back to the future: the Pact for the Mediterranean and the miracle of Euro-Mediterranean integration

Author:: Mark Furness
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The European Union (EU) and southern Mediterranean partners launched the Pact for the Mediterranean in November 2025 to reset relations with the EU's “Southern Neighborhood” in an increasingly challenging regional context. The Pact comes 30 years after the 1995 Barcelona Process promised to foster economic – and to a lesser degree political – integration in the Mediterranean Basin. The Pact's declared objective is to “achieve deeper integration within the common Mediterranean space” (EC & HR, 2025). This policy brief discusses the Pact's prospects for achieving this goal, which previous efforts have failed to achieve. For long-time observers of Euro-Mediterranean relations, the Pact appears to be a “back to the future” approach. Its three substantive “pillars” (people, economies and security) echo the three “baskets” (political/security, economic and socio-cultural) of the original Euro-Mediterranean Partnership. Structurally, it relies on the same mix of differentiated bilateral agreements (now termed “comprehensive partnerships”) within a multilateral regional framework. The Pact's success depends on whether the EU and Mediterranean partner countries can resolve four core dilemmas that have long challenged their relations: • The “autocracy dilemma”: balancing the need to work with authoritarian governments with European interests in supporting democracy. • The “migration dilemma”: securing borders while respecting human rights. • The “rentierism dilemma”: finding solutions to immediate economic, social and environmental challenges while making necessary reforms to rentier political economies. • The “regionalism dilemma”: cutting bilateral deals while trying to build regional structures to address collective action problems. The term “pact” is normally used to describe an agreement between two partners, setting out agreed objectives and actions for both sides. The Pact for the Mediterranean is an EU policy framework that, at most, represents a tacit agreement with southern Mediterranean governments, without committing either side to policy changes or reforms that might have long-term implications. The Pact for the Mediterranean has potential to strengthen sectoral cooperation, for example on renewable energy, connectivity infrastructure and labor mobility. If accompanied by sufficient resources and mutual trust-building, this functional cooperation may create incentives for deeper integration. This, in turn, will still depend on whether the EU and southern Mediterranean governments can move beyond trans-actionalism and invest in partnerships between their societies: support for democratic movements and institutions, investment in public goods, protection of the natural environment and investment in collective regionalism. Thus far, there is little indication that the EU and southern Mediterranean governments will take advantage of this opportunity.
Topic:: Migration, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Regional Integration, Autocracy, and Rentierism
Political Geography:: Europe and Mediterranean

94. Digital labor opportunities and (im)mobility: steps for making digital remote work a global possibility

Author:: Charles Martin-Shields
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: This policy brief offers advice for making digital remote work a viable solution to fill labor gaps without requiring workers to physically relocate. From a technology standpoint, there is no reason someone who does computer-based work must physically relocate, assuming they have the required job skills and internet connectivity. The increased use of bilateral labor agreements (BLAs) between countries is evidence that there are major skills gaps and global competition for labor. Indeed, a BLA can serve as a “policy sandbox” where governments negotiate the legal and statutory terms of digital remote work. Digital remote work can be an especially useful solution when the country providing labor has a large pool of people who are willing to work and fill labor pool gaps in countries of employment, but for different legal or personal reasons cannot relocate across borders. This latter point is no small thing: there is a significant body of migration research showing that the majority of people are not interested in moving across borders – or in the case of many refugees are unable to do so. The reasons for this are myriad. Digital labor could be a workaround to meet basic labor demand and facilitate economic inclusion. The word “could” is critical because banking, social and health insurance, and taxation, all of which are components of legal employment, remain bordered. This policy brief will focus on a specific case from research on urban refugee livelihoods where the worker was able to work digitally in the US from Malaysia, while being subject to social security, taxation and insurance in the US The idiosyncrasies in this case help point to spaces for reforming social security, tax and insurance rules to reduce their “bordered-ness” and make digital work more systematically viable. Key policy messages: • To make digital remote work viable at scale, development cooperation agencies should play a key facilitator role, linking relevant authorities in the tax, social insurance and banking regulation sectors. This is especially important for refugees who often cannot move and who fall outside the protection of host country labor laws. These reforms could, for example, be built into BLAs. • Achieving inclusive economic development goals via digital employment would require that remote workers earn competitive salaries. Thus, there would need to be buy-in from the private sector regarding wage competitiveness for workers in different countries, as well as a role for unions and civil society in negotiating digital remote work policy. • While digital work can enable greater economic and labor participation for workers who cannot relocate for jobs, there are still sectors that require physical presence. Thus, digital remote work is not a replacement for immigration policy that facilitates safe and flexible migration for those people who do have to move.
Topic:: Development, Labor Issues, Employment, Remote Work, and Digital Employment
Political Geography:: Global Focus

95. Strengthening European development policy: the case for Team Europe 2.0

Author:: Svea Koch, Julian Bergmann, Benedikt Erforth, Christine Hackenesch, and Niels Keijzer
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The international order is undergoing profound change as rivalry among major powers realigns the global balance. This is also having an impact on European development policy. In many European Union (EU) member states, funding for official development assistance (ODA) is declining. At the same time, EU countries are reforming their development policies and increasingly channeling their remaining resources towards priorities that serve primarily their own interests. So far, these reforms have largely been defined bilaterally, whereas a political debate on the role, added value and joint objectives of EU development policy is largely absent. Yet, without strengthening European cooperation in development policy, Europe will not succeed in providing an adequate response to the current upheavals in global politics. In this policy brief, we argue that reform efforts in European development policy must strengthen co-operation and complementarity to respond effectively to the changed geopolitical landscape. Our analysis identifies four key policy areas where European actors are pursuing ongoing reforms and where development policy should make significant contributions: 1) promoting economic cooperation and private-sector engagement, 2) security policy, 3) managing and shaping migration and 4) human development including poverty reduction, particularly in least developed countries (LDCs). So far, a joint European strategic direction in these areas has been lacking. Negotiating these shared priorities requires a revitalization of the political dialogue between EU institutions and member states, as well as further development of the “Team Europe” approach. “Team Europe 2.0” would then have two functions: to strengthen substantive complementarity “internally” through an understanding of how the various actors individually contribute to jointly defined objectives; and “externally” by making visible what Europe stands for strategically. A key element of Team Europe 2.0 should be an improved substantive dialogue among member states and within issue-specific, informal groups co-facilitated by individual member states and the European Commission. Such “thematic champions” could initiate the development of joint strategies for larger, transformative initiatives. Improved political dialogue and coordination on substance in key areas of European development policy are prerequisites for a united and more strategic external presence of “Team Europe”, including in multilateral contexts.
Topic:: Development, Reform, European Union, Economic Cooperation, Human Development, Rivalry, and International Order
Political Geography:: Europe

96. Competencies to help shape a changing world: tracer study and future focus of the IDOS Postgraduate Program for Sustainability Cooperation

Author:: Simone Christ, Sven Grimm, Tülin Engin-Stock, and Isabella Schulz
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The Postgraduate Program for Sustainability Cooperation (PGP) at the German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS, formerly DIE) has been training young professionals for German and European international cooperation since 1965. How successful is the program in supporting its graduates in starting their career and in developing their competencies? And what direction should Germany take in the future in its training for professionals in the field of international cooperation? To mark its 60th anniversary, IDOS conducted a tracer study to systematically analyze how the program has benefited its some 1,000 graduates and to find some pointers on how it could be developed further. The study very clearly demonstrates the relevance of the postgraduate program and identification with the program over the past 60 years. The feedback confirms that the PGP considerably benefits participants' professional and personal development and that they would definitely recommend it for future generations. At the same time, the world is undergoing a period of radical upheaval. Fundamental changes can be seen above all in the general conditions for partnerships, the demands made of staff working in this sector and training for future experts and managers. Training programs such as the PGP must adapt to address these drastic changes. The quality of a training program is ultimately reflected in how well it promotes basic competencies that will still be useful under different conditions and that can help shape these changes. IDOS graduates were also asked about their views on changes in working in the international cooperation sector. The survey thus allows conclusions to be drawn on how training can be developed further: 1. Training should promote various competencies that can shape cooperation for sustainable development. Taking a partner-oriented approach to initiating and implementing changes in an increasingly complex world requires both specialist and systemic knowledge along with personal, social, networking and cooperation skills. 2. Training institutions should promote the capacity for cooperation through joint learning with international partners. This will foster understanding for other perspectives and will support the ongoing development of partnerships. 3. Post-colonial perspectives and a critical examination of power should already be taken into account during training and should be put into practice in concrete cooperation between organizations. IDOS graduates also believe that these aspects are becoming more important in international cooperation.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, Training, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:: Global Focus

97. The 2026 oil crisis: an opportunity for Europe's energy transition

Author:: Valérie Plagnol
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: Seven weeks after the launch of the joint US-Israeli attacks against Iran on 28 February, the damage to regional production facilities and the virtual halt to maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz have triggered a rise in crude oil prices of nearly 60% for the WTI index and over 70% for Brent. Despite the two-week truce declared on 7 April, these increases have already had a painful impact on our economies. The duration of the tensions will, of course, determine the severity of the crisis, but the damage has already been done.
Topic:: Oil, Armed Conflict, Energy Crisis, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:: Europe, Iran, Israel, United States of America, and Strait of Hormuz

98. Genocide and the Courts: A Brief Review of Jurisprudence on the Crime of Genocide from Nuremberg to Today

Author:: David J. Scheffer
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:: In this January 2026 report, Genocide and the Courts: A Brief Review of Jurisprudence on the Crime of Genocide from Nuremberg to Today, Ambassador David Scheffer narrates how courts around the world, and over decades, have understood the crime of genocide. Published 80 years after the start of the Nuremberg trials, this report takes readers through court judgments that have grappled with questions of intent, protected groups, prohibited acts, and individual and state responsibility. We hope that teachers, students, and others will benefit from this concise summary of how courts have addressed questions about the definition of genocide over time. Over the past eight decades, “genocide” has gone from being an idea in Raphael Lemkin’s mind to being a universally recognized international crime, accompanied by a growing body of jurisprudence. Judicial rulings have been a critical means of addressing ambiguities about the definition of genocide that are found in the 1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide. Courts have gone a long way toward clarifying, for example, what must be established to find that a genocidal “intent to destroy” has been present. Reviewing the history of how courts have ruled on genocide cases, is therefore an important way to promote greater understanding of the meaning of this singular crime. The report begins with the Nuremberg trials—where judgments regarding Nazi war crimes and crimes against humanity during the Holocaust laid a foundation for future understanding of genocide—and the United Nations Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, which codified the crime. Mass atrocities in the second half of the 20th century devastated millions, from Cambodia and Guatemala to Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and the report describes how trials grappling with those crimes refocused our understanding of genocide. As important as understanding past jurisprudence around genocide is, Ambassador Scheffer makes clear that it does not supplant the importance of working to prevent and effectively respond to genocide. We hope that this resource will not only deepen readers’ understanding of genocide but also inspire people to rededicate themselves to ending this horrible scourge.
Topic:: Genocide, International Law, Courts, Holocaust, Jurisprudence, and Nuremberg
Political Geography:: Global Focus

99. Japan’s Semiconductor Supply Chain Structure and Its Implications for South Korea

Author:: Gyu-Pan Kim
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: As the competition for technological supremacy between the United States and China has intensified since the 2020s, the Japanese government is also staking its future on the “revival” of its semiconductor industry by strengthening its supply chain. Japan’s global market share in semiconductor products peaked at around 50% in the 1980s but has since fallen to around 10% in the 2020s. It is now maintaining its presence in the so-called legacy semiconductor sector, which includes power semiconductors, microcontrollers (MCUs), and CMOS image sensors. In the semiconductor manufacturing equipment and materials sector, which maintains a relatively high global market share, certain semiconductor materials—such as yellow phosphorus, helium, rare gases, and fluorite—are exposed to the risk of supply chain disruptions due to high import dependence on specific countries. This WEB paper analyzes the supply chain structure of Japan’s semiconductor industry and examines the government’s semiconductor industry policy from the perspective of strengthening supply chain resilience, with the aim of exploring future directions for cooperation between Japan and South Korea in the semiconductor industry. In the second section we analyze the input structure of Japan’s semiconductor industry using input-output analysis, while also assessing the import dependency of Japanese semiconductor products and materials to examine the supply chain structure of the industry. The third section provides an overview of the industrial policies the Japanese government has been pursuing since 2020 to revitalize the semiconductor industry, with a particular focus on the next-generation semiconductor project—the Rapidus 2-nanometer foundry. Section IV proposes a cooperation agenda between South Korea and Japan which involves: first, the sharing of supply chain information regarding export control, and joint procurement of semiconductor raw materials; and second, the joint development of semiconductor back-end packaging technologies and cooperation in the field of AI semiconductors.
Topic:: Industry, Supply Chains, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:: Japan and Asia

100. Global Demographic Structure and Korea's Productivity: Challenges and Opportunities

Author:: Sang-Ha Yoon
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: The global economy is undergoing a profound transformation driven by low birth rates and aging populations. While this demographic shift is a global phenomenon, South Korea is experiencing it at an unprecedented speed. This change is not merely a social issue but a fundamental economic shock that alters the core engines of growth: labor and capital. As the working-age population shrinks, the contribution of labor to economic growth inevitably turns negative. Consequently, sustaining economic growth depends entirely on productivity. The central challenge for policymakers is no longer just how to expand the workforce, but how to reconfigure the economy to produce more with fewer people through innovation and efficiency. This report analyzes the impact of demographic changes on Korea's productivity, drawing lessons from Japan’s experience and utilizing economic simulations. It explores how aging affects investment incentives and why “intangible assets”—such as technology, software, and organizational know-how—are critical for Korea's economic survival. Furthermore, it highlights how global financial conditions can act as a buffer for Korea's open economy.
Topic:: Demographics, Economic Growth, Labor Market, and Productivity
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, and South Korea

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS