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54502. Religion in Kosovo
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- This report seeks to describe the current position of the three major religious communities in Kosovo. In part, it aims to clarify misconceptions about the involvement of religion in the Kosovo conflict. It also proposes some areas where religion might serve as a means to encourage reconciliation among the peoples of Kosovo.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, Religion, and Ethnic Government
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Kosovo
54503. Economic Policy Following the Terrorist Attacks
- Author:
- Martin Neil Baily
- Publication Date:
- 10-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- America has shown its best side in recent weeks in the efforts to help the victims of September 11. And it is showing its strength as it moves to strike back and tighten security at home. Dealing with the economic impact of these horrendous crimes has, appropriately, not been the first priority.
- Topic:
- Government, Political Economy, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- America
54504. Can International Capital Standards Strengthen Banks in Emerging Markets?
- Author:
- Liliana Rojas-Suarez
- Publication Date:
- 11-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- Who should determine banks' capital standards: authorities or markets? What is the right definition of core capital: equity only or equity plus subordinated debt? Can the assessment of banks' individual credit risks by external rating agencies be of equal or better quality than the assessments derived from banks' own internal rating systems? These are some of the key financial regulatory issues currently being discussed by analysts in industrial countries, especially in the context of the proposed modification to the Basel Capital Adequacy Accord: Basel II is expected to replace the original 1988 Accord.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
54505. Macroeconomic Implications of the New Economy
- Author:
- Martin Neil Baily
- Publication Date:
- 09-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- Together with many policymakers and economists, I see in the 1990s expansion signs that new technologies that had been emerging for some time were finally paying off in stronger economic performance. I will use the expression 'new economy' to describe this period, although I recognize the pitfalls in this name. New economy is probably too broad a term and implies both more change and more permanent change than actually took place. But 'information economy' seems too narrow a term to describe the set of interrelated forces bringing about change in the economy, that include increased globalization, a more intense pressure of competition, the rapid development, adoption and use of information and communications technology (IT) and a favorable economic policy environment.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
54506. Finance and Changing US-Japan Relations: Convergence Without Leverage—Until Now
- Author:
- Adam S. Posen
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- In the postwar era, US-Japan economic relations have been characterized by substantial tensions, yet this has not damaged the underlying security relationship or critically harmed the multilateral economic framework. In fact, these two economies have become more integrated over time even as these tensions played out. These tensions, however, have required an enormous expenditure of political capital and officials' time on both sides of the Pacific and have led to foregone opportunities for institution building and policy coordination. They have deepened since Japan “caught up” with the United States around 1980, and Japanese and US firms began increasingly to compete for profits and market share in the same sectors. Moreover, as both the US and Japanese economies continue to mature – both in terms of the age of their populations and their industrial mix – they will likely face even greater tensions between them over allocating the management and costs of industrial adjustment.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, Israel, and East Asia
54507. Beyond Bipolar: A Three-Dimensional Assessment of Monetary Frameworks
- Author:
- Adam S. Posen and Kenneth N. Kuttner
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- A great deal of attention has been focused recently on the impact of exchange rate regimes, just as previous empirical research examined central bank autonomy and announced targets for domestic monetary policy. To date, however, these three elements of monetary frameworks have been assessed in isolation from one another, and all have been viewed in terms of a unidimensional spectrum of fixity versus flexibility. Using a newly-constructed dataset, this paper jointly analyzes and compares all three elements' effects on inflation and exchange rate behavior. The results show that each of the three elements has independent and distinct effects on nominal outcomes. Key findings include: (1) although hard pegs do tend to reduce inflation and attenuate exchange rate fluctuations within some range, they are clearly characterized by large devaluations; (2) central bank autonomy is associated with a more stable exchange rate and lower inflation; and (3) explicit inflation targeting reduces both inflation and its persistence, consistent with the view that inflation targeting increases flexibility through transparency. These results raise the possibility that a combination of central bank autonomy, inflation targeting, and a free float might offer the same benefits as any intermediate exchange rate regime on its own, without the proclivity to occasional large depreciations.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
54508. Rating Banks in Emerging Markets: What Credit Rating Agencies Should Learn From Financial Indicators
- Author:
- Liliana Rojas-Suarez
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- The rating agencies' and bank supervisors' records of prompt identification of banking problems in emerging markets has not been satisfactory. This paper suggests that such deficiencies could be explained by the use of financial indicators that, while appropriate for industrial countries, do not work in emerging markets. Among the conclusions, this paper shows that the most commonly used indicator of banking problems in industrial countries, the capital-to-asset ratio, has performed poorly as an indicator of banking problems in Latin America and East Asia. This is because of (a) severe deficiencies in the accounting and regulatory framework and (b) lack of liquid markets for bank shares, subordinated debt and other bank liabilities and assets needed to validate the “real” worth of a bank as opposed to its accounting value.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- East Asia and Latin America
54509. Unchanging Innovation and Changing Economic Performance in Japan
- Author:
- Adam S. Posen
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- The Toyota Commemorative Museum of Industry and Technology gives its visitors much to ponder. Established at the site in Nagoya where in 1911 Sakichi Toyoda founded his automatic loom factory (the basis of the family fortune, which later funded his son Kiichiro's development of automobile production), the museum was opened on June 11, 1994, the 100th anniversary of Toyoda's birth. It is a popular stop on field trips for Japanese schoolchildren, who are required to study in the 3rd grade the automobile industry. The messages, which Toyota wishes to instill in its young visitors, are the importance of “making things” and of “creativity and research.” And confronting all museum visitors upon entry, having central place in the vast and largely empty first room of the exhibits, is Sakichi Toyoda's one-of-a-kind vertical circular loom.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Israel, and East Asia
54510. IMF Structural Conditionality: How Much Is Too Much?
- Author:
- Morris Goldstein
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- “...detailed conditionality (often including dozens of conditions) has burdened IMF programs in recent years and made such programs unwieldy, highly conflictive, time consuming to negotiate, and often ineffectual.” “The IMF should cease lending to countries for long-term development assistance (as in sub-Saharan Africa) and for long-term structural transformation (as in post-Communist transition economies)...The current practice of extending long-term loans in exchange for member countries' agreeing to conditions set by the IMF should end.”
- Topic:
- Economics, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Africa
54511. Foreign Direct Investment in China: Effects on Growth and Economic Performance
- Author:
- Edward M. Graham and Erika Wada
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- By almost all accounts, foreign direct investment (FDI) in China has been one of the major success stories of the past 10 years. Starting from a base of less than $19 billion in 1990, the stock of FDI in China rose to over $300 billion at the end of 1999. Ranked by the stock of inward FDI, China thus has become the leader among all developing nations and second among the APEC nations (only the United States holds a larger stock of inward FDI). China's FDI consists largely of greenfield investment, while inward FDI in the United States by contrast has been generated more by takeover of existing enterprises than by new establishment, a point developed later in this paper. The majority of FDI in China has originated from elsewhere in developing Asia (i.e., not including Japan). Hong Kong, now a largely self-governing “special autonomous region” of China itself, has been the largest source of record. The dominance of Hong Kong, however, is somewhat illusory in that much FDI nominally from Hong Kong in reality is from elsewhere. Some of what is listed as Hong Kong-source FDI in China is, in fact, investment by domestic Chinese that is “round-tripped” through Hong Kong. Other FDI in China listed as Hong Kong in origin is in reality from various western nations and Taiwan that is placed into China via Hong Kong intermediaries. Alas, no published records exist to indicate exactly how much FDI in China that is nominally from Hong Kong is in fact attributable to other nations.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, Asia, and Hong Kong
54512. Subsidies, Market Closure, Cross-Border Investment, and Effects on Competition: The Case of FDI in the Telecommunications Sector
- Author:
- Edward M. Graham
- Publication Date:
- 02-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- Telecommunications long was a sector where sellers of services operated in protected local markets, where law and government regulation created and enforced barriers to entry, especially by foreign firms. In many nations, in fact, the provision of telecommunications services was reserved for state-owned monopoly suppliers. During the late 1980s and through the 1990s, however, many of these barriers have been removed while formerly state-owned firms have been partially or wholly privatized. This has in turn engendered some cross entry by telecom service providers; firms that once were purely domestic in the scope of their operations thus have become multinational.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Science and Technology
54513. Price Level Convergence and Inflation in Europe
- Author:
- Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Erika Wada, and John H. Rogers
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- Consumer price inflation in the euro area declined steadily during most of the 1990s. However, in the last two years, both headline and core inflation have risen throughout the area, and sizable cross-country differences in inflation have re-emerged. This is illustrated by Figure 1, which shows the headline consumer price inflation rate for the euro area as a whole and for select member countries. As of October 2000, all euro area countries had headline inflation rates above the European Central Bank's 2 percent medium-term ceiling, with rates ranging from 2.1 percent in France and Austria to 6 percent in Ireland. In Greece, which will join the euro area on 1 January 2001, inflation was 3.8 percent.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Greece, France, and Austria
54514. The Bulgarian Defense Industry
- Author:
- Curtis M. Coward and Jeffrey P. Bialos
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- This Report identifies strategic options available to the Bulgarian government and its defense industry, as well as the United States and its NATO partners, for transforming and repositioning the industry for the 21st century and facilitating its integration into the NATO and European Union industrial base. Since other Partnership for Peace (PfP) countries that are aspirants to NATO membership face similar difficulties concerning their defense industries, many of the recommendations herein apply to these countries as well. The report is based on numerous interviews with officials of government entities, private sector firms, and nongovernmental organizations and a review of pertinent governmental and private reports and original documents. A number of the members of the Atlantic Council's working group visited Bulgaria and several of its defense firms in April 2001. Given limitations of time and access to information, the report does not, however, attempt to set forth a thorough review of each firm in the Bulgarian industry.
- Topic:
- Security and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States and Eastern Europe
54515. Thinking Beyond the Stalemate in U.S. - Iranian Relations, Volume I - Policy Review
- Author:
- Brent Scowcroft, C. Richard Nelson, Lee H. Hamilton, and James Shlesinger
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The current stalemate between the United States and Iran, while emotionally satisfying to many Americans, does not serve overall U.S. interests well. It hinders the achievement of several key U.S. geopolitical interests, especially over the longer term. These interests include, but are not limited to, regional stability, energy security, and the broader and evolving geopolitical relationships between the United States and China and Russia in the Persian Gulf and Caspian basin. Furthermore, the leading industrial countries are moving to improve relations with Iran.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, and Middle East
54516. Permanent Alliance? NATO's Prague Summit and Beyond
- Author:
- C. Richard Nelson, Chas W. Freeman Jr., Wesley K. Clark, Max Cleland, Gordon Smith, and Robert L. Hutchings
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- With U.S. leadership, the Alliance has undertaken an impressive transformation over the past decade: from the July 1990 London Summit, which heralded a “Europe whole and free,” to the April 1999 Washington Summit, which welcomed three former Warsaw Pact members as new allies, even as NATO forces were engaged in combat for the first time. But the Alliance has not yet realized its full potential as an institution embracing all democratic nations of Europe dedicated to collective defense and embodying the interests and values of the transatlantic community. Moreover, the allies still confront important challenges to their shared goal of bringing lasting security to the European continent as a whole, as well as to the overall vitality of the transatlantic relationship.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and London
54517. Changing Terms of Trade: Managing the New Transatlantic Economy
- Author:
- David L. Aaron and Donald L. Guertin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The economic relationship between the United States and the European Union (EU) is in the midst of a significant transition. In the past, the dominant element of that relationship was trade. This was only natural, given their large share of the global trading system: the United States generates 19 percent of world trade, and the European Union 20 percent. Moreover, the United States is the EU's largest trading partner, while the EU is the single largest importer into the United States and the second largest market for U.S. exports. But in recent years, several new elements have become more prominent in the transatlantic economic relationship, bringing with them both challenges and opportunities.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
54518. Governance and Politics of the Internet Economy–Historical Transformation or Ordinary Politics with a New Vocabulary?
- Author:
- Steven Weber and John Zysman
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
- Abstract:
- Driven by two fundamental processes, rapid technological change as well as social innovation and reorganization, a new digital economy, the E-conomy, is emerging. Rather than merely adding an Internet sector to the economy, the E-conomy has brought about tools for thought, tools that transform every sector of the economy by amplifying brainpower the way steam engines amplified muscle power during the Industrial Revolution. For analytic purposes, the rise of the E-conomy can be told as a story composed of 1) networks and tools, 2) e-business and e-society, 3) the productivity dilemma resolved, and 4) governance and politics. In the short run, the transformative processes unleashed by the E-conomy are likely to lead to new bargains among existing coalitions and interest groups. In the long run, the changes underway promise to fundamentally alter the political sociology of vast communities, give rise to new interests and coalitions, and transform the institutional foundation of social, economic and political life.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Political Economy, Politics, and Science and Technology
54519. The Growth and Development of the Internet in the United States
- Author:
- Martin Kenney
- Publication Date:
- 06-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
- Abstract:
- Rarely does a new technology emerge that galvanizes a dramatic rethinking of the nature of commerce. The Internet is such a technology. At this early stage, it is difficult to appreciate fully the importance of the Internet, but some speculate it might be as momentous as the arrival of the telegraph (Cohen et al. 2000; Standage 1999). Radically new communication technologies such as the Internet have multiple applications and often become ubiquitous. As such, the adoption, diffusion, and development of this new technology provide an especially penetrating view of how different national innovation systems have responded to and shaped the commercial possibilities inherent in the Internet. Of course, such an assessment for an economy as large as that of the U. S. is difficult. It is further complicated by the peculiar way in which communications technologies permeate and facilitate connections and relationships. Often the action of such technologies is imperceptible to most of the actors involved and even to aggregate statistics; e. g., better information transfer between customers and suppliers is not manifested in the finished good, though it is embodied in the good in terms of lower cost and/ or higher quality. Given the diffuse nature and the speed of the Internet's evolution, any analysis can only be tentative.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
54520. The Internet and E-commerce Development in Mexico
- Author:
- Martin Kenney, James Curry, and Oscar Contreras
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
- Abstract:
- The Internet is by all accounts one of the most important innovations of the late twentieth century. As yet the Internet's impact on the economies of developed countries is not obvious, and the economic implications for developing countries are even more unclear. Already much has been written about a supposed "digital divide" within nations and between nations, but no one has a clear understanding of the exact dimensions or implications of this divide. This paper does not take any position on whether Mexico is suffering from a digital divide or is likely to do so in the future; rather, it focuses on the recent rise of Internet sites and e-commerce in Mexico.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- Mexico
54521. Creating an Environment: Developing Venture Capital in India
- Author:
- Rafiq Dossani and Martin Kenney
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
- Abstract:
- In the last decade, one of the most admired institutions among industrialists and economic policy makers around the world has been the U. S. venture capital industry. A recent OECD (2000) report identified venture capital as a critical component for the success of entrepreneurial high-technology firms and recommended that all nations consider strategies for encouraging the availability of venture capital. With such admiration and encouragement from prestigious international organizations has come various attempts to create an indigenous venture capital industry. This article examines the efforts to create a venture capital industry in India.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States and India
54522. The Role of the State in the Labour Market: Its Impact on Employment and Wages In Portugal as Compared with Spain
- Author:
- José Da Silva Lopes
- Publication Date:
- 11-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The role of the State in the economy and in the social arena was deeply transformed in the second half of the 1970s, on account of the change of the political regime. The integration into the European Union since 1985 has brought new radical changes in that role. The paper describes the most important of those changes, putting a special emphasis on social policies and on the labour market, and on the challenges that have to be faced because of European Monetary Union.
- Topic:
- Government and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Europe
54523. In Defense of the “Democratic Deficit”: Reassessing Legitimacy in the European Union
- Author:
- Andrew Moravcsik
- Publication Date:
- 11-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Concern about the EU's 'democratic deficit' is misplaced. Judged against prevailing standards in existing advanced industrial democracies, rather than those of an ideal plebiscitary or parliamentary democracy, the EU is democratically legitimate. Its institutions are tightly constrained by constitutional checks and balances: narrow mandates, fiscal limits, super-majoritarian and concurrent voting requirements and separation of powers. There is little evidence that the EU impacts an unjustifiable neo-liberal bias on EU policy. The apparently disproportionate insulation of EU institutions reflects the subset of functions they perform – central banking, constitutional adjudication, civil prosecution, economic diplomacy and technical administration – which are matters of low electoral salience commonly delegated in national systems, for normatively justifiable reasons. Efforts to expand participation in the EU, even if successful, are thus unlikely to greatly expand meaningful deliberation. On balance, the EU redresses rather than creates biases in political representation, deliberation and output.
- Topic:
- Democratization and Government
- Political Geography:
- Europe
54524. Fifteen Years On: Spanish Membership in the European Union Revisited
- Author:
- Charles Powell
- Publication Date:
- 11-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- This paper attempts to describe and account for the major changes undergone by Spain as an EU player since her accession in 1986. Many analysts appear to have espoused the view that most if not all of these can be attributed to the fact that, following the 1996 general election, a decidedly pro-integrationist Felipe González was replaced as prime minister by a vaguely eurosceptical José María Aznar. Undoubtedly, ideological considerations (and, more importantly perhaps, differences in political culture) must be taken into account when examining the evolution of Spain's European policy over the past fifteen years. However, this paper will argue that changing policy styles and contents should be understood in terms of both the learning process undergone by all new member states as they mature, and the need to adapt and respond to developments within the EU, most notably the evolution of the European integration process itself.
- Topic:
- Development and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Europe
54525. Social Citizenship and Institution Building:EU-Enlargement and the Restructuring of Welfare States in East Central Europe
- Author:
- Christiane Lemke
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- With the EU-enlargement process well underway, this paper focuses on social citizenship as a conceptual frame for analyzing the restructuring of social institutions in applicant countries in East Central Europe. So far, comparative welfare state analysis has concentrated mainly on the developed economies of the OECD-countries; there is little systematic analytical work on the transitions in post-communist Europe. Theoretically, this paper builds on comparative welfare state analysis as well as on new institutionalism. The initial hypothesis is built on the assumption that emerging patterns of social support and social security diverge from the typology described in the comparative welfare state literature inasmuch as the transformation of postcommunist societies is distinctly different from the building of welfare states in Europe. The paper argues that institutionbuilding is shaped by and embedded in the process of European integration and part of governance in the EU. Anticipating full membership in the European Union, the applicant countries have to adapt to the rules and regulations of the EU, including the “social acquis”. Therefore, framing becomes an important feature of institutional changes. The paper seeks to identify distinct patterns and problems of the institutionalization of social citizenship.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Security
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Eastern Europe
54526. On Incentives in Technology Policymaking: What the EU can learn from the U.S. developments
- Author:
- Wolfgang Gick
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- This paper focuses on the incentives political and bureaucratic actors face in the institutional setting of EU technology policy. In examining the implications and assumptions of neoclassical and evolutionary theories of technological change, it tries to answer why some approaches are difficult to translate into policy designs. By focusing on positive policymaking the paper examines why policy learning does not occur in certain institutional settings. A special focus is on the informational constraints that limit policy design. Since evaluation and oversight mechanisms have not been sufficiently developed and accepted within EU settings, there is much room for inefficiency, as a basic agency model with hidden information shows. If political planners have incomplete information about the state of the world, programs cannot be designed efficiently. Hence, a better link between evaluation and program design could reduce inefficiencies. Regarding this point, current discussions in U.S. policymaking seem to focus increasingly on program design effects and policy implementation.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
54527. Decentralized Cooperation and the Future of Regulatory Reform
- Author:
- Pepper D. Culpepper
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Faced with the fact of sweeping regulatory reform, how do companies decide how to respond to a new set of policies? This paper argues that this problem requires a new conception of policymaking: a conception that recognizes the analytical primacy of achieving coordination under uncertainty. I call this challenge the problem of securing decentralized cooperation. Negotiated reforms are a common leitmotif of the current wave of reforms taking place in various European countries, whereas American attempts to reinvent government opt to replace the state with the market. There are general lessons in this approach for both strategies. Unlike the earlier attempts to establish neo-corporatist bargains at the national level in European countries, the success of bargained pacts in Europe will depend increasingly on allowing private actors to design the best solutions to centrally identified problems. The challenges of bringing private information to bear on public policy will increase in the future, and not only in supply-side economic policy reforms. One such area is environmental regulation, which is typically viewed as an area of pure state regulation. This is also an area where market-based solutions are frequently proposed as the most efficient solution to problems of pollution. As I demonstrate through the initiative of the Chesapeake Bay Program in the United States, the challenges identified above for areas of economic policymaking are now relevant to environmental initiatives, even in liberal market economies such as the US and the UK. The extent of government success in such initiatives will be determined by the ability of governments to understand the importance of private information and their capacity to develop private sector institutions that can help procure it. Attempts to replace a malfunctioning state with a market solution, currently very much in vogue in certain quarters in the United States, will fail, as long as they do not recognize the distinctive problems inherent in securing decentralized cooperation.
- Topic:
- Economics and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, United Kingdom, and Europe
54528. Observing the 2002 Mexico Elections
- Author:
- Marcela Szymanski
- Publication Date:
- 03-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Carter Center
- Abstract:
- The Carter Center has a long history of engagement with Mexico with the shared goal of improving the electoral system in that country. In the early 1990s, the Center helped national observer groups to form and sent international observers to assist in domestic election monitoring. It also invited Mexicans to observe the U.S. elections in 1992. In 1994, the Center was among the first international observers to monitor elections in Mexico, and its observations helped shape electoral reforms that framed those and the 1997 elections, which the Center also observed.
- Topic:
- Democratization and Development
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Mexico
54529. Observing Political Change in Venezuela: The Bolivarian Constitution and 2000 Elections
- Author:
- Laura Neuman and Jennifer McCoy
- Publication Date:
- 02-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Carter Center
- Abstract:
- Venezuela under President Hugo Chávez undertook a bold experiment to revamp its political system and address economic inequities and poverty. The country held seven votes in two years as voters chose Hugo Chávez to lead them in December 1998 and then supported his radical reform program, beginning with a new constitution. A Constitutional Assembly was elected in July 1999 to draft a new constitution, which voters approved in December 1999. Every elected position in the country was then presented to the voters again in a two-stage election in July and December 2000. While we do not believe that the election irregularities would have changed the 2000 presidential results, the significant politicization of the elections and organizational deficiencies contributed to a lack of confidence in the process and the nonpresidential results, thus leading us to characterize the July 2000 elections as flawed.
- Topic:
- Democratization and Development
- Political Geography:
- South America, Latin America, and Venezuela
54530. The Defense Monitor: Letter from the President
- Author:
- Rachel Stohl, Michael Donovan, Tomas Valasek, and Bruce.G Blair
- Publication Date:
- 11-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Defense Information
- Abstract:
- In the immediate wake of the terrorist atrocities, the entire CDI staff devoted itself to providing timely information and insight into the U.S. and world response to the crisis. Since then, we have channeled most of our effort into addressing the terrorist threat and its alleviation. Over 100 articles and updates have been posted on our web site on a daily basis, attracting heavy traffic to the site by an appreciative audience. Numerous other projects have been launched as part of this urgent new agenda - for instance, a joint project on nuclear terrorism involving Russian officials from the Ministry of Atomic Energy and CDI staff from Washington and Moscow (home of a new CDI office).
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, and International Organization
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Washington, and Moscow
54531. The Defense Monitor: Fatally Flawed? U.S. Policy Toward Failed States
- Author:
- Rachel Stohl, Michael Stohl, and Matthew Lewis
- Publication Date:
- 10-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Defense Information
- Abstract:
- The Events Of Sept. 11 may prove, as so many have claimed in their immediate aftermath, to be a true watershed in international relations and for the lives of American citizens. However, there can be no doubt that the events changed the priorities of U.S. President George W. Bush, and challenged the approach to international relations that characterized the first nine months of the new administration. To that end, the current security environment will have significant impacts on the persisting problem of failed and failing states.
- Topic:
- Religion and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Arabia
54532. The Defense Monitor: Fiscal Year 2002 Budget Request
- Author:
- Christopher Hellman and Daniel Smith
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Defense Information
- Abstract:
- The bush administration is requesting $343.2 billion for the Pentagon in Fiscal Year 2002. This is $32.6 billion above current levels, and includes the $14.2 billion increase requested for the military in the March budget release (see below). This total also includes $14.3 billion for the defense functions of the Department of Energy.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States
54533. The Defense Monitor: Population Growth and Water Resources in the Middle East
- Author:
- Rachel Stohl, Christopher Hellman, Tomas Valasek, Leigh Josey, and Nicholas Berry
- Publication Date:
- 09-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Defense Information
- Abstract:
- Political strife is nothing new in the Middle East. In fact, many of the present-day disputes date back 100 years or more. But the increasing scarcity of renewable water resources and the simultaneous high population growth add new urgency to the necessity to devise a settlement.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Agriculture, Demographics, and Environment
- Political Geography:
- United States and Middle East
54534. The Defense Monitor: NMD Development is not Hostage to the ABM Treaty
- Author:
- Philip E. Coyle
- Publication Date:
- 09-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Defense Information
- Abstract:
- To prove he is serious about National Missile Defense, President George W. Bush must abrogate the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty now, according to the most strident critics of the treaty. The longstanding ABM accord with Russia, it is said, is thwarting the technology needed for missile defense.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States
54535. The Defense Monitor: The Security Environment in Asia
- Author:
- Nicholas Berry
- Publication Date:
- 09-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Defense Information
- Abstract:
- The security environment in Asia has become highly complex since the end of the Cold War. A legacy from that superpower struggle still affects security relations, but what is surprising is the re-emergence of issues associated with World War II and before. Asians have long memories. Their injuries are not forgotten. Past history is just yesterday.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States
54536. Potential Sources of Financing for U.S. Ventures in Russia
- Author:
- Askar Askarov, Katharine Reed, and Linn E. Schulte-Sasse
- Publication Date:
- 12-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
- Abstract:
- Following the end of the Cold War, the United States and its allies recognized that it was in their vital security interests to promote stable transitions in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the New Independent States (NIS) of the former Soviet Union. For the most part, such transitions would depend on the efforts of the states in transition themselves, including many that had been newly formed. However, one way in which the Western nations could help was by economic assistance -- both financial and technical.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union
54537. How Verification Can Be Used to Ensure Irreversible Deep Reductions of Nuclear Weapons
- Author:
- Wu Jun
- Publication Date:
- 06-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
- Abstract:
- Verifying nuclear disarmament is a complex technical process. This paper examines the techniques that could be used to verify future nuclear weapon reductions and analyzes the motivation for the nuclear states to accept deep weapon cuts and the prospect for future nuclear reductions. To allow large nuclear reductions and assure credible verification, several steps are suggested in this paper: all nuclear warheads should be registered and tagged; the total inventories of plutonium and high-enriched uranium as well as the fissile cores dismantled from the warheads should be verified; the nuclear delivery vehicles and launcher numbers and types should be monitored as outlined in the START and INF treaties; and agreed nuclear-capable delivery vehicle production should also be monitored.
- Topic:
- Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States
54538. Verifying the Agreed Framework
- Author:
- Michael May, Nancy Suski, Robert Schock, William Sailor, Wayne Ruhter, Ronald Lehman, James Hassberger, Zachary Davis, George Bunn, and Chaim Braun
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
- Abstract:
- The Agreed Framework (AF) between the United States of America and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), signed in Geneva on October 21, 1994, has become the centerpiece of recent US efforts to reduce the threat of conflict with North Korea. In particular, it seeks to bring the DPRK into compliance with its obligations under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) not to acquire nuclear weapons. The AF document sets goals, outlines programs, initiates a US-led nuclear-power consortium, and notes linkages. The AF refers to a wider range of diplomatic and international security initiatives, such as the NPT and the agreement on denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, and is meant to reinforce others, including those related to the reconciliation of the two Koreas.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States, Israel, East Asia, and Korea
54539. (Re)Constructing Constructivist International Relations Research
- Author:
- Wayne Sandholtz, Hayward R. Alker, Raymond Duvall, Cecelia Lynch, Daniel Lynch, Stephen Majeski, Nicholas Onuf, Colin Wight, Robert English, Saori Katada, and J. Ann Tickner
- Publication Date:
- 10-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
- Abstract:
- On October 6, 2001 the Center for International Studies at the University of Southern California held a workshop entitled “(Re)Constructing Constructivist International Relations Research.” This workshop joins a series held by CIS on cutting edge research in international relations. Participants were sent a statement composed by Hayward Alker and a copy of Nicholas Onuf's paper and asked to bring written comments based on these two documents.
- Topic:
- International Relations
- Political Geography:
- California
54540. Economic Growth in Colombia: A Reversal of 'Fortune'?
- Author:
- Mauricio Cardenas
- Publication Date:
- 12-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Colombia’s annual GDP growth fell to an average of 3% between 1980 and 2000 from 5% between 1950 and 1980. The sources-of-growth decomposition shows that this reversal can be accounted entirely by changes in productivity. Indeed, between 1960 and 1960 productivity gains increased output per capita by 1% per year. Since 1980, productivity losses have reduced output per capita at the same rate. The time series analysis suggests that the implosion of productivity is related to the increase in criminality which has diverted capital and labor to unproductive activities. In turn, the rise in crime has been the result of rapid expansion in drug-trafficking activities, which erupted around 1980. This explanation is supported by cross-country evidence that shows that Colombia is clear outlier in terms of conflict and fragmentation, and suggests that high crime is associated with low productivity.
- Topic:
- Crime, Economic Growth, Conflict, Social Capital, and Productivity
- Political Geography:
- Colombia and South America
54541. Grants Vs . Investment Subsidies
- Author:
- Ashok S. Rai and Tomas Sjöström
- Publication Date:
- 12-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- How should a government intervene to help the credit constrained poor? We study an economy where productivity and wealth are unobserved, and loans must be collateralized. We show that the e¢cient policy typically consists of o¤ering both a grant and an investment subsidy. Everybody will take the grant and only the relatively productive will take the subsidy. This policy reduces but does not eliminate investment distortions.
- Topic:
- Poverty, Investment, Collateral, Credit Constraints, Intervention, and Loan Subsidy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
54542. The global financial markets after September 11: What has changed?
- Author:
- Roger S. Leeds
- Publication Date:
- 10-2001
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
- Abstract:
- We know now that the world has changed unimaginably and will never be quite the same, not for Americans. And not for the world, and it is going to require that institutions like CARI or the Council on Foreign Relations in New York take a new approach to how they look at the world and the types of programs they run.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Markets, 9/11, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
54543. A New Era in Mexico?
- Author:
- Mark Falcoff
- Publication Date:
- 02-2001
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- Last July, Mexico underwent a medium-sized political earthquake—it elected Vicente Fox, candidate of an opposition alliance, to a six-year presidential term. In so doing, it ended seventy-one years of hegemonic rule by the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and unleashed a host of possibilities for the nation’s future. What are those possibilities, and what do they mean—for Mexico and the United States? The truth is that nobody—not even veteran Mexico-watchers—is quite sure. Fox himself is a man of paradox: His relationship with his own party is ambiguous, to say the least, and the platform on which he ran points both left and right, as do his cabinet appointments. Moreover, Mexico itself, long in the thrall of a kind of benevolent authoritarianism, is new to the art of divided government. While there may be some changes in the relationship with the United States, tensions and conflicts based on history, geography, and the vast asymmetries of wealth are bound to persist.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Politics, Authoritarianism, and Elections
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Mexico
54544. An Emerging Populist Threat?
- Author:
- Mark Falcoff
- Publication Date:
- 06-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- On May 14, Jackson Diehl, the deputy foreign editor of the Washington Post, raised an intriguing question in an op-ed for that newspaper: Is Latin America about to “drift back toward its one-time status as semi-hostile territory for the United States”? Some of the evidence he cited was certainly enough to give pause. In Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega, that country’s former Marxist president—voted out of office in 1990—seemed poised to finally regain power later this year. In Peru, Alan García, the leftist-populist windbag—the consummate Latin demagogue, almost a caricature of the type—who drove his country to the verge of collapse in the 1980s, has reemerged as a presidential possibility in a runoff scheduled for June 3. In Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the perennial standard-bearer of the Left, is leading in the polls for next year’s presidential race. “Even in El Salvador,” Diehl writes, President Bush “may see the election of former FMLN guerrillas.” As to Venezuela, the machinations of its president, Hugo Chávez, hardly require comment; he makes no secret of the fact that his principal foreign policy objective is to forge a new, worldwide, anti-U.S. alliance.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, Populism, and Hugo Chavez
- Political Geography:
- South America, Latin America, and Venezuela
54545. Venezuela’s Tinfoil “Revolution”
- Author:
- Mark Falcoff
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- After forty years of politics as usual, Venezuela has suddenly become an object of curiosity to the world’s press. The reason is President Hugo Chávez, a forty-six-year-old former lieutenant colonel who first came to the attention of Venezuelans in 1992 when he and a group of other junior officers attempted to overthrow the government of President Carlos Andrés Pérez. Amnestied by Pérez’s successor, Chávez began a political career of his own, and in 1998, running as the candidate of the so-called Fifth Republic Revolutionary Movement (MVR), he was elected by a decisive majority. Two and a half years later, he is still an enigma—to Venezuelans, to the United States, and to everyone else. Given the centrality of his country to the oil producers’ cartel and, even more, given the current dependence of the United States on Venezuelan oil, he merits a closer look.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Government, Natural Resources, and Hugo Chavez
- Political Geography:
- South America, Latin America, and Venezuela
54546. Peru: Yet Another Transition
- Author:
- Mark Falcoff
- Publication Date:
- 03-2001
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- Last November Peruvian politics were turned upside down by the revelation that the president’s security chief had been bribing members of congress, other prominent political personalities, and the media. The “smoking gun” was a series of filmed videos actually recording the shady transactions, involving millions of dollars in one of Latin America’s poorest nations. Popular indignation was so great that the president, Alberto Fujimori, diverted a flight to the Asia-Pacific conference in Brunei and went to Tokyo instead, where he precipitously claimed Japanese citizenship and asked for political asylum. At home, one of the strongest political machines in Latin America was dismantled almost overnight. Congress deposed the president, named an interim chief executive and prime minister, and called for new elections on April 8. Thus ends an era in Peruvian politics, one rich in paradox and moral ambiguity. What, one wonders, is next?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Corruption, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Peru
54547. Latin Democracy and Its (Increasing) Discontents
- Author:
- Mark Falcoff
- Publication Date:
- 09-2001
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- Though summer is still with us in the northern hemisphere, Latin America languishes deep in the winter of its discontent. Ten years after the international scene was transformed by the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the cold war, many Latin Americans have become disillusioned with their role in the new world order. The principal problem is that in spite of vigorous, in some cases drastic, market reforms, most of the region’s economies are in the doldrums. More to the point, in spite of a significant return of foreign investment to the area in the early 1990s, the number of Latin Americans living in poverty has increased. Public services have deteriorated or in some cases even disappeared. And crime is rampant everywhere, even in cities such as Buenos Aires, where until ten years ago inhabitants boasted-with reason-that their streets were safer at 3 a.m. than those of New York or Los Angeles in daytime.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Democracy, and Investment
- Political Geography:
- South America and Latin America
54548. Nicaragua on the Brink–of What?
- Author:
- Mark Falcoff
- Publication Date:
- 10-2001
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- On November 4, Nicaraguans will go to the polls to select a president, vice president, and all sixty-six members of their unicameral congress–an event that on its own merits would hardly deserve much attention on the part of foreign observers. But the drama unfolding in that tiny country is characteristic of many small (and not so small) Latin American countries today: the inability of democracy alone to address effectively some of the fundamental problems of society. Nicaragua also provides some interesting insight into the peculiar pathologies that afflict postrevolutionary states, and as such may provide some light on what we can expect in post-Castro Cuba and even, eventually, in post—Chávez Venezuela.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Democracy
- Political Geography:
- Cuba, Latin America, and Nicaragua
54549. Argentina Votes–but for What?
- Author:
- Mark Falcoff
- Publication Date:
- 11-2001
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- On Sunday, October 14, Argentines went to the polls to culminate what must surely have been the most ideological, hard-fought, and potentially decisive legislative election in their country’s history. At stake were all seventy-two seats in Argentina’s senate (chosen for the first time by popular vote[1]) and half of those in the Chamber of Deputies. What made the exercise particularly fraught with political significance was the fact that—coming as it did in the third year of a deep recession—the outcome was bound to be unfavorable to President Fernando de la Rúa, now midway through his four-year term. Given the parlous economic indicators—a near record 16 percent unemployment, laggard or negative economic growth for many months, drastic cuts in social spending with apparently more to come—the fact that the opposition Peronist Party won control of the senate and a plurality in the lower house can hardly be considered a surprise. But more serious still was the fact that, with few exceptions, candidates from the president’s own Radical Civic Union (and its coalition partner) ran against him with equal, if not greater, zeal. To the extent that the election was a plebiscite on de la Rúa’s stewardship, the vast majority voted “no.” What it voted for, however, is far from clear.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Politics, and Elections
- Political Geography:
- Argentina and South America
54550. Communists of Moldova and the Future of the Country's Ethnopolitical Conflicts
- Author:
- Pritt Jaerve
- Publication Date:
- 03-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
- Abstract:
- The plans of the communists of Moldova to take their country to the Russia-Belarus Union and to give Russian the status of an official language, if carried out, may contribute to the resolution of existing ethnopolitical conflicts in Moldova. However, the same plans might lead Moldova towards a federation, trigger ethnic mobilisation of the titular nation and create new dimensions of ethnopolitical tension in Moldovan society.
- Topic:
- Communism, Minorities, Ethnicity, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Moldova