Search

Begin New Search Topic Democracy Publication Year within 25 Years Publication Year within 10 Years

1. Empire Salon | William Smith | Oct 14 2020

Author:
William Smith
Publication Date:
12-2026
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
The Center for the Study of Statesmanship, Catholic University
Abstract:
William Smith, a distinguished former student of Committee Board member Claes Ryn, has written an insightful book on the realistic and restrained foreign policy tradition of the United States. Smith highlights the great Harvard scholar, Irving Babbitt, with his clear understanding of the crooked timber of man -- especially when acting collectively -- which reduces moral inhibitions against violence. James Madison explained in Federalist 55, “Had every Athenian citizen been a Socrates; every Athenian assembly would still have been a mob.”
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Imperialism, and Democracy
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2. Kuwait Country Report 2024

Author:
Arab Barometer
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Since the last Arab Barometer survey in Kuwait, conducted in 2022, major changes have taken place, significantly affecting political stability in the country. While political life in Kuwait was saturated with crises, and its indicators were clearly visible in the dissolution of the National Assembly (Parliament) repeatedly before completing its term, the shifts, changes, and political instability that dominated the public arena, between late 2022 and the current period of 2024, included even more severe events. Kuwait faced the unconstitutional dissolution of the National Assembly and the suspension of some articles in the constitution, now for the third time in Kuwait’s history. The first two such crises were in 1967 and 1986. To summarize the events that took place from June 2022 until the dissolution of the Parliament and the suspension of the constitution in May 2024, they are as follows: On August 3, 2022, the National Assembly was dissolved constitutionally, in response to the sit-in of a number of MPs inside the Parliament and their overnight stay there. The Crown Prince (the current Emir) gave a speech in which he emphasized adherence to the constitution, and also presented initiatives in electoral reform. He emphasized that the government would not vote for the candidate for the speaker of the National Assembly, and that the elections would be through the national ID card (effectively changing electoral circuits). The protesting MPs considered these reforms a victory. As a result, Ahmed al-Nawaf was appointed Prime Minister
Topic:
Corruption, Education, Environment, Gender Issues, Health, Migration, Governance, Democracy, Economy, Discrimination, Institutions, Labor Market, Freedom, and Political System
Political Geography:
Middle East and Kuwait

3. Whom do African election campaigns contact? And does it matter?

Author:
Robert Mattes, Matthias Krönke, and Sarah J. Lockwood
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Canvassing is an important way in which political parties around the world raise awareness and connect with voters. Despite this, the literature on parties in new democracies, and Africa in particular, has tended to overlook this form of activity, focusing instead on vote buying, mass rallies, and meetings. In this paper, we use public opinion survey data from Afrobarometer and the Comparative National Elections Project to show that overall rates of canvassing in Africa are similar to other new, as well as many established, democracies. The data also challenge several dominant views of party campaigns in the Africanist literature. First, African parties do not concentrate primarily on turning out their base, rather than reaching across the partisan divide. Indeed, the opposite is the case. African parties expend more energy contacting nonpartisan independents and cross-partisans, and thus make a potentially meaningful contribution to the supply of multiparty competition. Second, the vast majority of contacts occur without any clientelist exchanges of material goods between parties and individual voters. And third, while incumbent parties enjoy canvassing advantages over opposition parties in around one-third of the surveyed countries, opposition parties (viewed collectively) match the party in power in terms of the ground game in another third, and enjoy higher rates of contact in yet another third.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Civic Engagement, and Campaigning
Political Geography:
Africa

4. Generative AI, Democracy and Human Rights

Author:
David Evan Harris and Aaron Shull
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
Disinformation is not new, but given how disinformation campaigns are constructed, there is almost no stage that will not be rendered more effective by the use of generative artificial intelligence (AI). Given the unsatisfactory nature of current tools to address this budding reality, disinformation, especially during elections, is set to get much, much worse. As these campaigns become more sophisticated and manipulative, the foreseeable consequence will be a further erosion of trust in institutions and a heightened disintegration of civic integrity, which in turn will jeopardize a host of human rights, including electoral rights and the right to freedom of thought. In this policy brief, David Evan Harris and Aaron Shull argue that policy makers must hold AI companies liable for the harms caused or facilitated by their products that could have been reasonably foreseen, act quickly to ban using AI to impersonate real persons or organizations, and require the use of watermarking or other provenance tools to allow people to distinguish between AI-generated and authentic content.
Topic:
Human Rights, Democracy, Artificial Intelligence, Disinformation, Generative Models, and Freedom of Thought
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5. Democratic Recovery After Significant Backsliding: Emergent Lessons

Author:
Thomas Carothers and McKenzie Carrier
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In a global political landscape marked by twenty years of widespread democratic backsliding, some good news exists: in a handful of countries where leaders significantly undercut democratic norms and institutions, elections have brought to power new leadership with a strong declared commitment to restoring democracy.
Topic:
Democracy, Institutions, Democratic Backsliding, and Global Politics
Political Geography:
Global Focus

6. Will Kuwait’s Parliamentary Democracy Be Restored, Reformed, or Repudiated?

Author:
Omar Al Jasser and Nathan J. Brown
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Kuwaitis are accustomed to a domestic political scene that sometimes resembles a soap opera with shifting characters and much melodrama but no resolution. For over a generation, fiercely contested parliamentary elections have consistently produced fractured parliaments that clash with individual ministers, leading to confrontation, parliamentary grilling, and dissolutions of cabinets and parliaments that are replaced by new bodies that merely resume the tussle. But on May 10, 2024, the soap opera abruptly came to an end. Sheikh Meshal al-Ahmad, the newly enthroned emir, not only dissolved the recently elected parliament but also suspended the body indefinitely, promising a four-year process of constitutional revision. While the step was dramatic, the extent and nature of further change remains unclear. The suspension is forcing all Kuwaiti political actors to direct their attention to portentous long-term issues rather than more ephemeral short-term drama, but so far there is little indication of how the issues will be resolved. The drama of daily crises has often obscured far more significant evolutionary trends. Over the six decades of its existence, the Kuwaiti constitution’s text has not changed, but the way key institutions operate (parliament in particular) and the way they interact (especially cabinet-parliamentary relations) have changed significantly. The suspension of parliament came largely in response to ruler frustrations with this dichotomy and the feeling that parliaments lead to gridlock, grandstanding, and corruption. Has a governing system that seemed to offer so much noise and motion but little movement come to a full stop? Will Kuwait rejoin its neighbors and abandon its experiment with powerful parliaments? Other parliamentary bodies on the Arabian Peninsula are generally more limited in their prerogatives, and elections are either avoided or constrained; notably, Qatar abandoned elections in favor of an appointed assembly six months after the Kuwaiti parliamentary suspension. Or will Kuwait instead simply revert back to its old system after a cooling-off period or in response to popular pressure (as happened twice in the past)? At this point, it is uncertain whether Kuwait’s style of parliamentary democracy will be restored, reformed, or repudiated. Still, the fallout from the emir’s action has deeply affected the rhythm of Kuwaiti politics (and silenced some of the loudest public discussions) without determining the country’s fundamental direction. The path of full autocracy remains open, and the promise of a committee to reform the constitution and pave the way for parliamentary restoration has been ignored to date. But this inaction does not necessarily imply an intention to permanently abolish parliament; rather, it may suggest that reform or restoration is more likely. Regardless, there are currently no clear indications of what changes might be made. So, while the potential for dramatic change exists, Kuwait’s leaders may have simply bought themselves a respite rather than a resolution. Important Kuwaiti political actors seem to be working out their strategies very slowly, meaning that questions will be answered over years, not weeks or months. But in the meantime, the flavor of Kuwaiti politics is shifting in ways that are often unannounced but very consequential for a society accustomed to a feisty and active political life.
Topic:
Reform, Elections, Democracy, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Kuwait and Gulf Nations

7. European Democracy Support Annual Review 2024

Author:
Richard Youngs, Kinga Brudzinska, Zselyke Csaky, Ricardo Farinha, and Ken Godfrey
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In 2024, a series of elections reinforced EU concerns about the fragility of European democracies. This, coupled with intensifying conflict dynamics and authoritarian trends worldwide, led the EU to focus on protecting democracy at home at the expense of supporting it globally.
Topic:
Civil Society, Authoritarianism, Reform, European Union, Democracy, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
Europe

8. Can Democracy Stop Extractivism and Authoritarianism?

Author:
Paula Sevilla Núñez
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Ecuador’s electorate will go to a runoff vote in April in a highly polarized climate. At stake is a broader political struggle between authoritarianism and democracy.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Elections, Democracy, and Extractivism
Political Geography:
Central America and Ecuador

9. Is Israel a Liberal Democracy?

Author:
Raphael Cohen-Almagor
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
Israel’s democratic principles are under threat both internally and externally. Its long-term survival is to integrate fully into the Middle East, and the key to that integration is to peacefully resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Topic:
Democracy, Rule of Law, Liberalism, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

10. Why democracies stick together: The theory and empirics behind alliance formation

Author:
Markus Jaeger
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Domestic regime type affects both inter-state conflict and alliance formation. Democratic peace theory posits that democracies do not go to war with one another, while democratic alliance theory suggests that they rarely, if ever, join nondemocratic alliances (or alliances led by nondemocratic powers). Empirical evidence strongly supports both theories. The Atlantic Council’s Freedom and Prosperity Indexes further reinforces the hypothesis that economically prosperous democracies tend to align with one another, whereas authoritarian states gravitate toward similarly nondemocratic and less prosperous partners. If these theories hold, they carry significant implications for Western and especially US foreign policy. First, global democratization would reduce the number of potential conflicts, at least among an increasing number of democracies. Second, it would expand the pool of democratic alliance partners, while at the same limiting the alliance options available to nondemocratic powers. This strategic logic underscores the importance of upholding democratic norms abroad and promoting democratization in nondemocratic states. However, advocating for democratization of nondemocratic great powers will be perceived as both a geopolitical and domestic political challenge aimed at weakening their international position and threatening their governments’ domestic grip on power. Efforts to democratize nondemocratic great-power like Russia and China therefore provoke intense countermeasures. If such a strategy is deemed to be too high risk or too difficult to pursue successfully, a less provocative, “peripheral” strategy may focus on fostering democracy and economic development in authoritarian regimes’ weaker, less prosperous partners, thereby depriving them of potential allies.
Topic:
NATO, Diplomacy, Politics, Democracy, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Russia, China, and Asia

11. From Belgrade to Tbilisi: How the EU Views Civil Protests

Author:
Ljiljana Kolarski
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
From Belgrade to Tbilisi: How the EU Views Civil Protests The European Union (EU) has long positioned itself as a promoter of democratic values, human rights, and media freedom. However, its stance on opposition protests in different countries is often influenced by a complex interplay of geopolitical considerations and pragmatic interests. This paper examines the EU’s contrasting reactions to anti-government protests in Serbia and Georgia in 2024, emphasizing how these responses are shaped by the political alignments of the respective governments. On the one hand, the EU has brought a strong support to opposition in Georgia, whose government maintains close ties with its northern neighbor, Russia. On the other hand, Brussels has failed to actively support opposition groups in Serbia, which has visibly distanced itself from Moscow since the war began without moving towards greater democratization.
Topic:
European Union, Democracy, Protests, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Serbia, and Georgia

12. The Consolidation of Liberal Democracy in Brazil: Encountering Global, Regional, and Local Representations

Author:
Daniela Vieria Secches
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contexto Internacional
Institution:
Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:
The globally expanded international society established a standard of statehood as central criteria for its membership. The end of the Cold War witnessed an ascendant, albeit contested, liberal democracy as a preferred regime in global imaginaries. Within this context, the re-democratization processes experienced in Latin America amid profound international systemic reorientations implied the renegotiation of regional and local social imaginaries, as, for example, in the Brazilian case. In this article, we seek to discuss Brazil’s selective and creative adaptation in the space of overlaps between global, regional, and local social imaginaries about the government regime since the 1990s. Through a theoretical-empirical approach based on the discussion about the construction of shared understandings between international and domestic social spaces, we opted for a pragmatic theoretical foundation with the support of the English School of International Relations, critical philosophy, and the sociology of Bourdieu to study the Brazilian case. By focusing on the Fernando Henrique Cardoso government, it is proposed to qualitatively analyse documents from the period that problematize the country’s external insertion based on the interaction with the global and the regional social imaginaries about liberal democracy, with the support of a bibliographical review grounded on specialized secondary sources
Topic:
Democracy, Social Imaginary, Domestic Politics, and International Society
Political Geography:
Brazil, Latin America, and South America

13. A Turning Point, or Not? Principles for a New European Order

Author:
Richard Youngs
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Despite repeated declarations of historic turning points, deep structural reforms to the European project remain elusive. While defense spending rises are welcome, EU governments must also pursue systemic changes to Europe’s political and security architecture.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Politics, Reform, European Union, Democracy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

14. 10 Years of Observing US-Russia Relations (09/18/2025)

Author:
Timothy Frye, Samuel Greene, Nina Khrushcheva, Maria Snegovaya, Joshua Tucker, and Alexander Cooley
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
The Harriman Institute
Abstract:
Please join the New York University Jordan Center for the Advanced Study of Russia and Harriman Institute at Columbia University for the concluding event in the New York-Russia Public Policy series, held in person at NYU. This panel of four distinguished researchers and commentators on Russia will reflect on a decade of observing U.S.-Russia relations, how the two countries represent their relations and understand their interests, and the challenges inherent in communicating the many nuances of these relationships. Our panelists will also speculate on what we are likely to see in the next decade to come.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, National Security, Bilateral Relations, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, North America, and United States of America

15. Final Report: 2023 National Elections in Liberia

Author:
The Carter Center
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
General elections were held in 2023 in Liberia to elect the president, the House of Representatives, and half the Senate. President George Weah was running for a second term. No candidate won a majority in the first round of voting on Oct. 10, which led to a Nov. 14 runoff between Weah and his closest challenger, Joseph Boakai. Boakai defeated Weah by just over one percentage point, and Weah conceded peacefully. In May of 2023, Liberia’s National Elections Commission (NEC) issued an invitation to The Carter Center to observe the election. Funding constraints prevented the Center from deploying a full observation mission. However, to demonstrate international support for democracy in Liberia and to share recommendations for strengthening the electoral process, The Carter Center deployed an international election expert mission led by Ray Kennedy, who also served as electoral analyst. Nicholas Jahr served as deputy team leader and political analyst, and Mariam Tabatadze was the legal analyst. The team was in Liberia from Sept. 25, two weeks prior to the first round of voting, to the end of November, two weeks after the runoff. Given the mission’s size and limited scope, it did not conduct a full observation of voting or make a comprehensive assessment of the election. Rather, the trio of experts focused on the counting and tabulation process and NEC preparations for both rounds of voting. They observed polling stations in Montserrado County—Monrovia, as well as Upper and Lower Montserrado magisterial areas—during both rounds. Liberia’s NEC successfully administered the 2023 elections, including a presidential runoff, despite a tense political climate and severe resource constraints. The 2023 Revised Farmington River Declaration in which 27 of 31 political parties pledged their commitments to peaceful elections served as a useful tool in maintaining a relatively calm atmosphere during the campaign period.2 The NEC maintained its credibility through a closely contested first round that saw the difference in votes between the first-place and second-place candidates come down to less than half a percentage point, with nearly 80% of the registered electorate going to the polls, followed by a second round in which the difference was less than 2%, with 66% of the electorate casting ballots. The NEC’s strong performance is notable in the current regional and subregional context and positions Liberia to serve as a model for promoting political stability through professionally administered elections if there is the political will to continue to do so. Nonetheless, political will has been a recurring problem in Liberia in relation to elections: For example, despite repeated calls for action, elected leaders over the past 20 years have failed to effectively address the issue of including female candidates on party lists. Likewise, leaders have failed to ensure that electoral districts comply with constitutional requirements to provide equal representation, with many electoral districts dating from 2005 and reflecting enormous disproportionality. Given its record of successfully administering elections in 2005, 2011, 2014, 2017, and 2020, as well as various by-elections, despite declining levels of international support, expectations for the NEC have risen. Still, financial constraints and other limits on its independence have hindered the NEC’s ability to make further progress in professionalizing the institution and consolidating its reputation.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and Liberia

16. Voices Beyond the Battlefield: Sudanese Civic Actors in Wartime and Diaspora

Author:
The Carter Center
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
Since April 15, 2023, Sudan has experienced a catastrophic collapse following the outbreak of war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces. Over 14.5 million people have been displaced, famine is deepening, and war crimes — including mass killings, sexual violence, and forced displacement — continue with impunity. The collapse of the state has left a vacuum in governance, services, and protection. Sudan now faces what the International Rescue Committee has called “the largest humanitarian crisis ever recorded.” With the collapse of state structures and infrastructure, Sudanese civic actors, both within the country and across the diaspora, have become frontline responders, organizing aid delivery, evacuating civilians, supporting survivors, documenting violations, and sustaining local networks. They operate without protection, pay, or recognition, often under direct threat from armed actors who view civic activity with suspicion or hostility. In the diaspora, Sudanese organizations struggle with legal ambiguity, lack of registration options, and diminished access to funding, yet remain determined to support their communities and return when conditions permit. The international response remains severely underfunded and politically disengaged. The United States had been the largest donor to Sudan, providing over US$1.4 billion in assistance since 2022. The U.S. government’s recent cuts to foreign aid, including to Sudan, have further deepened the gap and marginalized long-term development and peacebuilding efforts there. The international community’s lack of sustained engagement risks normalizing the war and further entrenching those who profit from instability. This report is based on nearly 70 interviews and group discussions conducted in April 2025 with civic actors in Sudan, Uganda, Kenya, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Chad. It provides firsthand insight into the conditions these actors face, the strategies they use to adapt and survive, and the support they urgently need.
Topic:
Civil War, Diaspora, Democracy, and Civic Engagement
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

17. Voices Beyond the Battlefield: Future Civic Space and Recovery Prospects

Author:
The Carter Center
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
This second installment of the Carter Center’s report series on the affects of the Sudan civil war on civil actors takes a forward-looking view, highlighting how Sudanese civic actors are beginning to reorganize, engage with emerging local governance structures, and prepare for potential transitions. The Carter Center has monitored the conflict in Sudan since its outbreak in April 2023. In 2024, the Democracy Program launched a remote observation mission based in Nairobi, Kenya, to examine how civic actors are navigating the war, adapting their roles, and envisioning the country’s future. Through one-on-one interviews and group discussions with civic leaders in regional diaspora hubs, the Sudan Observation Mission produced four reports.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Democracy, Peace, and Civic Engagement
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

18. Guyana General Election Preliminary Statement

Author:
The Carter Center
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
The Carter Center election observation mission has been in Guyana since late June following an invitation from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation. The mission is led by Jason Carter, chairperson of The Carter Center Board of Trustees and grandson of the late U.S. President Jimmy Carter. On election day, 47 observers from 21 countries visited 234 polling stations across Guyana’s 10 regions to observe voting and counting. Carter Center observers continue to assess the conclusion of counting and vote tabulation and will remain in Guyana to observe the postelection environment. All assessments are made in accordance with international standards for elections, and the observation mission was conducted in accordance with the Declaration of Principles for International Election Observation
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and Guyana

19. Projections for geopolitical competition to EU Democracy Promotion

Author:
Isabelle Ioannides
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
This policy brief is authored by Dr. Isabelle Ioannides (Senior Research Fellow, South-East Europe Programme – ELIAMEP) and published in the context of the project EMBRACing changE – Overcoming Obstacles and Advancing Democracy in the European Neighbourhood (EMBRACE). EMBRACE is a multi-country research initiative (2022–2025) that seeks to strengthen the capacity of EU policymakers and pro-democracy actors to develop effective strategies for democracy promotion across five regions: the Western Balkans, Eastern Europe, the Southern Caucasus, the Middle East, and North Africa. It combines comparative analysis, stakeholder engagement, and new data collection to identify the obstacles and enablers of democratisation and to design practical policy tools for European democracy promotion. Focusing on Work Package 7 – The Geopolitics of EUDP, this policy brief addresses the turbulent geopolitical landscape in which EU democracy promotion must operate. Russia’s and China’s assertive roles, including disinformation campaigns, combine with heightened regional instability, conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and the spread of polarisation and populism within and beyond Europe. These developments create a volatile environment that constrains democratic progress in the EU’s neighbourhood and, in some cases, drives democratic backsliding. The brief stresses that the EU’s democracy promotion cannot be viewed in isolation from these broader geopolitical dynamics. Against this backdrop, the EMBRACE project organised scenario-building workshops in North Macedonia, Serbia, Ukraine, and Georgia, and conducted stakeholder interviews in Algeria. These consultations had a twofold aim: to assess the democratic trajectories and risks facing each country by 2030, and to evaluate how the EU can mitigate challenges while reinforcing democratic enablers. The locally led approach ensured that country-specific insights and informal power dynamics were captured, helping to refine projections for how external and internal pressures may shape democracy in the coming years. The brief concludes by offering recommendations for the EU to recalibrate its democracy promotion strategies under conditions of geopolitical competition and uncertainty. It underlines that effectiveness depends on tailoring approaches to local realities, anticipating risks through foresight and scenario planning, and reinforcing the EU’s credibility as a consistent and strategic actor. By integrating evidence-based insights and locally grounded perspectives, the policy brief contributes to EMBRACE’s broader mission of equipping the EU with more adaptive and resilient tools for advancing democracy in its neighbourhood.
Topic:
European Union, Democracy, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Europe

20. The EU’s Democracy Promotion and Geopolitical Competition

Author:
Ioannis Armakolas, Dimitar Bechev, and Ana Krstinovska
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
This policy paper is authored by Ioannis Armakolas, Head & Senior Fellow, South-East Europe Programme, ELIAMEP, Dimitar Bechev, Senior Research Fellow, South-East Europe Programme, ELIAMEP, and Ana Krstinovska, Research Fellow, South-East Europe Programme, ELIAMEP is published in the context of the of the project EMBRACing changE – Overcoming Blockages and Advancing Democracy in the European Neighbourhood. EMBRACE is a multi-country research initiative that aims to enhance democracy promotion efforts in the EU’s neighbourhood by identifying key obstacles to democratisation and formulating evidence-based strategies to overcome them. The project draws on locally led research and stakeholder engagement across twelve case studies in five regions: the Western Balkans, Eastern Europe, the Southern Caucasus, the Middle East, and North Africa. Focusing on Work Package 7 of the project, the report “The EU’s Democracy Promotion and Geopolitical Competition” examines how the European Union’s democracy promotion efforts are shaped and challenged by both external authoritarian actors, primarily Russia and China, and internal political dynamics within partner countries. The report offers an in-depth comparative analysis of five case study countries: Algeria, Georgia, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Ukraine. The authors analyse how authoritarian rivals deploy various forms of coercion, subversion, and co-optation, often exploiting internal political vulnerabilities. They also highlight how domestic elites navigate this external competition, at times instrumentalising their ties with Russia and China to entrench their power and limit EU influence. In this geopolitical context, the paper finds that EU democracy promotion tools are most impactful when tied to credible enlargement prospects and implemented with consistency and strategic sensitivity to local conditions. The paper concludes that democracy promotion is no longer merely a matter of institutional design or normative appeal, it has become a geopolitical contest where foreign influence and domestic agency intersect. As such, future EU strategies must account for this complexity and tailor instruments to local realities while remaining steadfast in their democratic commitments. The report closes with concrete policy recommendations aimed at refining the EU’s approach, particularly in geopolitically contested environments.
Topic:
European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Europe

21. Military Humanitarianism: A case of India´s Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief Operations

Author:
Aashriti Gautam
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
The current global scenario, wherein states are increasingly inclined to deploy military force to defend their national interests at the cost of human lives, often overlooks the military's constructive role in safeguarding and reinstating fundamental democratic values, such as respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms, through its Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief operations (HADR). Within this contextual framework, the article adds an important dimension to the existing scholarship on the relationship between democratic values and the military, examined through the lens of military humanitarianism. To further substantiate this assertion, the author posits that the global humanitarian aid and disaster relief operations undertaken by the Indian Armed Forces serve as a compelling case study. The analytical findings reveal that India’s HADR efforts reflect its commitment to democratic values, emphasizing transparency, inclusivity, and equitable aid distribution, while strengthening governance, resilience, and strategic influence in global crisis management.
Topic:
Disaster Relief, Armed Forces, Democracy, Military, and Humanitarian Assistance
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

22. From Provider to Precarious: How young men’s economic decline fuels the anti-feminist backlash

Author:
Javier Carbonell
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
A new political divide is emerging in Europe: a growing gender gap among young voters, with young women trending progressive and young men increasingly turning to the far right. This paper argues that the rise of anti-feminist backlash among young men is not merely a cultural reaction to feminism but also the result of deepening economic precarity—particularly for working-class men without university degrees. Over the past two decades, young men have seen declining wealth, stagnating wages, lower employment rates, and worse mental health outcomes. In some EU countries, young women now earn more than men their age. This economic decline is not caused by women’s advancement but rather by structural economic changes, such as the rise in inequality and automation, which disproportionately affect men who occupy more manual jobs. As traditional pathways to masculine status—such as stable employment, homeownership, and provider roles—erode, far-right actors have capitalised on this dislocation by offering a regressive but emotionally resonant vision of masculinity. This gender divide threatens not only gender equality but also the foundations of democratic support itself, as radicalised young men often express weaker commitment to democratic norms. To reverse this trend, democratic forces must pursue a two-pronged approach: Address the material roots of frustration through ambitious economic policy: investing in housing, education, vocational training, employment security, and wealth redistribution for youth—particularly men without degrees. Redefine masculinity by promoting positive, inclusive male role models and creating new cultural narratives that empower young men without reinforcing patriarchal norms. Progressive visions of manhood must offer not only critique, but aspiration.
Topic:
Economics, Democracy, Feminism, Men, and Precarity
Political Geography:
Europe

23. The Spitzenkandidat: Time to rethink a failing democratic experiment

Author:
Eric Maurice
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
Hailed as a breakthrough for EU democracy when it was first introduced in 2014, the Spitzenkandidat system has since failed to fulfil the promises made to European citizens. The system, based on an interpretation of Article 17.7 of the treaty on the European Union that stipulates how the Commission president is (s)elected, dictates that the lead candidate of the European party which obtains the most votes in the European elections should become European Commission president and was used in the election of Commission presidents Jean-Claude Junker and Ursula von der Leyen. This paper argues that the Spitzenkandidat system has not contributed to deepening the pan-European political debate, reinforcing the political legitimacy of EU institutions, or increasing the accountability of the European Commission to the European Parliament. On the contrary, the way that European political parties and members of the European Parliament have implemented the system has led to a more powerful and partisan Commission, as well as a weaker Parliament with less oversight powers. And while the European Parliament—engaged in an institutional competition with the European Council—has used the lead candidate experiment to establish a parliamentary government at EU level, this has created ambiguities over the form of government the EU should have and where legitimacy should derive from. On 18 July 2024, a majority in the European Parliament re-elected Ursula von der Leyen, the lead candidate of the European People’s Party, as Commission president. A year later, the Commission’s agenda does not reflect the political balance of the so-called ‘Von der Leyen coalition’ that backed her election, which proves that the Commission is not politically accountable to the Parliament. The first anniversary of her re-election is an opportunity to draw lessons from the Spitzenkandidat experiment and start rethinking how it can deliver on its democratic promises.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Citizenship, Participation, European Parliament, and European Commission
Political Geography:
Europe

24. Resilience to Online Disinformation: The Role of Civil Society Organizations

Author:
Agnieszka Bejma and Yun-Ju Kao
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
The proliferation of online disinformation poses a serious threat to democratic societies, undermining electoral integrity, fueling polarization, and eroding public trust in institutions. Addressing this complex and evolving challenge cannot be the responsibility of governments or civil society actors alone. This article argues that civil society organizations (CSOs), when engaged as co-creators in democratic governance, play a vital role in fostering information resilience in the digital age. Drawing on comparative case studies from Taiwan and Poland: two democracies that have been frequent targets of foreign disinformation campaigns, we examine how CSOs respond to these threats through fact-checking, media monitoring, digital literacy education, and public awareness campaigns. Our findings show that CSOs not only expose misleading content but also empower citizens to critically engage with information ecosystems. The study contributes to the emerging literature on co-governance by demonstrating that effective responses to disinformation require multiactor collaboration, with CSOs serving as institutional partners in safeguarding democratic resilience.
Topic:
Civil Society, Governance, Democracy, Resilience, and Disinformation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

25. Digital Technologies in the Election Cycle – The Case of Albanian Parliamentary Elections 2025

Author:
Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM)
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM)
Abstract:
As digital platforms and AI reshape societies worldwide, their impact on elections is increasingly profound. This brief explores how digital tools were used in Albania’s 2025 Parliamentary Elections, examining the roles of the Central Election Committee, political parties, candidates, and civil society. While technology offers opportunities for voter education, transparency, and participation, it also brings risks such as misinformation, unethical campaigning, and gaps in legal oversight. Drawing on international examples and Albania’s own experience, the brief highlights the need for robust safeguards, legislative alignment with EU standards, and strengthened public awareness to ensure digital means strengthen rather than undermines democratic processes.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Artificial Intelligence, Parliament, and Digital Technologies
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Albania

26. Next-Generation Perspectives on Taiwan

Author:
Bonnie S. Glaser
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
In an increasingly fractured world where authoritarianism is gaining ground, Taiwan stands as one of the strongest and most resilient democracies. Taiwan placed first in Asia and 12th globally in the 2025 democracy index compiled by the London-based Economic Intelligence Unit. This year, Freedom House ranked Taiwan as the sixth-freest country in the world with a score of 94 out of 100. These are remarkable achievements for a relatively young democracy that experienced decades of authoritarian rule, lifted martial law in 1987, and conducted its first direct presidential election in 1996. Taiwan is also an economic powerhouse. With just 23.5 million people, Taiwan has a GDP of nearly $760 billion, which puts it close to the top 20 economies of the world. Its crucial role in global technology supply chains is unquestionable, especially in semiconductor manufacturing, where Taiwanese companies produce close to 70% of the world’s chips and over 90% of the most advanced ones. Taiwan is also driving innovation and delivering state-of-the-art solutions in artificial intelligence, information technology, and renewable energy. Taiwan is a global leader in public health, including medical technology, public hygiene, and transplants. It has one of the best national health care systems in the world and among the most competitive biomedical industries. Taiwan is also among the world’s leading nations in scientific research to improve prevention and detection of diseases. Another area where Taiwan excels is in the provision of disaster preparedness and relief, both domestically and internationally. Taiwan’s government and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) frequently provide aid to countries affected by disasters, donating supplies, offering financial assistance, and dispatching search and rescue teams. After Japan’s massive Tohoku earthquake in 2011, Taiwan donated over $250 million in combined aid. Following the 2023 earthquake in Türkiye, Taiwan provided financial aid along with a search-and-rescue team. Taiwan’s importance to the international community is undeniable. As a full member of the World Trade Organization (WTO), the Asian Development Bank (ADB), and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, Taiwan has demonstrated that it is a valuable and reliable partner. Yet Taiwan is largely excluded from participating in the United Nations System, including the World Health Organization, the International Civil Aviation Organization, and the Kimberley Process aimed at ensuring that diamonds are not used to fund violent conflicts or undermine legitimate governments. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) actively thwarts Taiwan’s participation in international organizations by exerting pressure within those organizations and on individual member countries. The Taiwan-US-Europe Policy Program (TUPP) encourages young professionals from the United States and Europe to include Taiwan in their research and activities and help Taiwan to expand its global networks. Established in 2017, annual TUPP delegations were originally composed only of Americans, but expanded to include Europeans in 2022 in support of GMF’s mission of promoting transatlantic cooperation. TUPP enables future leaders to acquire a deeper understanding of Taiwan and its relations with the world. Delegation members are selected through a rigorous application process. The annual program begins in Washington, DC, where the cohort (5 Americans and 5 Europeans) meets with officials and experts, and continues with a week-long visit to Taiwan to gain firsthand exposure to Taiwan’s politics, culture, and history. Through their participation in TUPP and especially their experience in Taiwan, participants are instilled with an appreciation for Taiwan’s history, its commitment to the principles of democracy and human rights that undergird the existing international order, and its potential to contribute more actively to international organizations. They also gain a deeper understanding of the importance of strengthening international support for maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. Over time, TUPP aims to create a body of global experts with firsthand knowledge of Taiwan who support sustaining and expanding its international ties. It is my earnest hope that all the TUPP participants will be inspired to work both on and with Taiwan. I am grateful to the Henry Luce Foundation, the Global Taiwan Institute, and the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy for their support of these goals. The contributions here, written by the members of the 2025 TUPP cohort, underscore the importance of deeper study and understanding of Taiwan. I sincerely hope that they stimulate greater transatlantic and global attention to Taiwan and its future.
Topic:
Democracy, Geopolitics, Economy, Trade, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

27. How to Help Ukraine Strengthen Democratic Resilience During and After the War

Author:
Yana Brovdiy
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Russia’s full-scale invasion since 2022 has transformed Ukraine’s domestic landscape, forcing the state to balance wartime governance with the pursuit of long-term transformative reforms. Despite the centralization of power under martial law, the government has continued efforts toward EU integration and institutional strengthening. Political competition has narrowed but not disappeared: while opposition parties challenge aspects of governance, they support the war effort and reform trajectory. Civil society and volunteer groups have assumed unprecedented roles in oversight, service delivery, and sustaining national morale, compensating for state limitations. Independent media, though operating under pressure, remain critical in keeping the government accountable and countering disinformation. The public’s confidence increasingly rests with the country’s wartime leaders, reflecting a shift in political legitimacy. Even under severe economic and humanitarian strain, the population’s commitment to democratic values and a European future endures. Ukraine’s integration into Western political, economic, and security structures deepened after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and accelerated following the full-scale invasion. International assistance remains vital for sustaining its defense, economy, and reform agenda. The EU’s €50 billion Ukraine Facility and progress in accession talks highlight its continued commitment, yet divisions among member states, notably Hungary’s veto threats and differing priorities, slow collective action. Meanwhile, US policy toward Ukraine under President Donald Trump has become more transactional and unpredictable, creating uncertainty over long-term military support. NATO members and partners have stepped up coordination through mechanisms such as the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List, but the lack of unified Western leadership complicates strategic planning. This brief outlines for the medium term three scenarios for Ukraine’s democratic resilience, depending on how the war, diplomatic efforts, and domestic political dynamics evolve. The most likely one is the war continuing without a ceasefire, and ongoing martial law, societal fatigue, and political uncertainty eventually create the conditions for a government of national unity. The second-most likely scenario is a ceasefire providing temporary relief and space for governance, and opening the way for increased pressure for elections, even with the war unresolved and the country exposed to Russian interference. A peace agreement followed by elections is the least likely scenario at the time of writing, which, without complete domestic acceptance and strong international security guarantees, could destabilize Ukraine politically. To help Ukraine sustain its sovereignty, democratic governance, and European integration, its international partners should provide continuous, reliable military support and concrete security guarantees. They should reinforce independent institutions, including anti-corruption bodies and the judiciary, while backing civil society and independent media to maintain accountability. Supporting the development of new political actors and harnessing the growing influence of veterans can also strengthen democratic norms and political pluralism. Assistance should also promote cohesion across government and society to prevent and to reduce polarization and external Russian interference, ensuring Ukraine’s resilience during the war and in the ongoing and postwar reconstruction.
Topic:
Sovereignty, European Union, Democracy, Resilience, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

28. How To Help Moldova Secure Its Fragile Democracy

Author:
Laurențiu Pleșca
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
As it approaches its parliamentary elections, Moldova is in a turbulent situation, with ongoing economic and social challenges, society polarized, and the political landscape marked by a split among pro-EU forces while pro-Russia ones appear increasingly united. Moldova is no longer a captured state, but oligarchic networks are still influential. The elections will be decisive for its geopolitical trajectory. Pro-EU actors faces the challenge of overcoming their divisions and forming a credible governing coalition, while pro-Russia and populist forces aim to exploit societal grievances, economic vulnerability, and external disinformation to erode trust in democratic institutions. Vote-buying, illegal campaign financing, and disinformation, particularly via digital platforms beyond the state’s regulatory reach, remain potent tools for those seeking to manipulate the elections’ outcome. At the same time, an active civil society and independent media keep a close watch on democratic backsliding and political shifts. They play an indispensable role in strengthening the country’s resilience, but resource limitations and the termination of US assistance threaten their effectiveness. Moldova’s international environment further complicates its trajectory. The war in Ukraine, the presence of Russian forces in Transnistria, and the frozen negotiation format for solving the situation there heighten security concerns. Russia continues to undermine its EU integration through political pressure, energy leverage, and hybrid influence campaigns. Simultaneously, Moldova has deepened its ties with the EU, the United States, and regional partners such as Romania and Ukraine, receiving substantial financial, technical, and security support. It benefits from the EU’s Black Sea Security Strategy, the European Peace Facility, and a three-year €1.9 billion EU Economic Growth Plan, alongside EU and US military and development assistance. The pro-EU parties are fragmenting and ostracizing each other, while the left-wing and pro-Russia parties are coalescing to be as effective as possible. It will be difficult for a single party or bloc to win an absolute majority. Moldova thus faces three near-term scenarios around the elections, reflecting the political polarization and, in two cases, highlighting the likely fragility of a resulting governing coalition. The most probable outcomes are continuity in government and in EU integration under the PAS or a fragile pro-EU coalition government. The less likely outcome is an unstable broad pro-Russia coalition government that would be destructive for Moldova’s EU path. For the EU, its member states, and other Western actors, supporting Moldova is a matter of reinforcing its democratic resilience. They need to help its institutions withstand pressures in the short term, and to strengthen the political, civic, and security foundations that can anchor the country in Europe in the long run. This requires a wide range of financial, technical, and political measures to give Moldova the tools to resist foreign interference and the confidence to pursue reforms. They include supporting the consolidation of democratic institutions, enhancing electoral integrity, reinforcing civil society, and maintaining a credible path toward EU accession.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
Moldova, Eastern Europe, and Black Sea

29. Improving Civic Education in the Western Balkans: The Experience of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Serbia

Author:
Ema Džejna Smolo Zukan
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Civic education is critical in building democratic resilience. Yet, in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Serbia, it remains an underdeveloped, inconsistently implemented, and politically marginalized part of the education system. Civic education is included in the school curriculum in the three countries, but its delivery often misses the mark, due to weak institutional frameworks, lack of teacher motivation and support, and limited political will for reforms. As taught now, instead of fostering informed, critical, and engaged citizenship, the subject leaves young people unprepared to participate actively and vulnerable to disinformation In Bosnia and Herzegovina, civic education has been a mandatory school subject since 2001, but fragmentation across 13 education ministries produces significant disparities in content and quality. In Montenegro, it was downgraded to an elective subject in 2017, effectively eroding its presence in schools. In Serbia, it is elective and competes with religious education, reinforcing the notion that the two are mutually exclusive. Across the region, the subject suffers from insufficient resources, low institutional priority, and low student engagement. The gap between subject design and implementation persists. Although civic education is a well-designed part of the education system on paper, in practice, it is often peripheral, theory-heavy, and disconnected from everyday life. Students are expected to memorize rather than to engage and to debate. There is inconsistency in schools as it largely depends on the motivation of a few teachers. For teachers, selection criteria are loose and professional development is rare or dependent on external support, and there is little career incentive to teach the subject. Civil society organizations play a vital compensatory role by developing materials, organizing extracurricular activities, and training teachers, yet these efforts remain donor-dependent and unsustainable without state support. Reforming civic education requires bridging the gap between civic knowledge and civic action. This entails a shift to experiential learning that develops critical thinking, media literacy, and democratic participation. There is a need for improving teacher training and certification, embedding civic education as a standalone and visible subject, and fostering cooperation between ministries, educators, and civil society. Greater parental awareness and public advocacy are essential to raise the status of the subject and build societal support for reform. Ultimately, strengthening civic education is a strategic investment in democratic culture and social cohesion. By institutionalizing inclusive, participatory, and practical civic learning, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Serbia can empower young people as informed, responsible citizens and improve the quality of democracy. Effective civic education is not only an educational priority but also a democratic imperative for the region’s future stability.
Topic:
Civil Society, Education, Democracy, Diversity, Equity, and and Inclusion (DEI)
Political Geography:
Europe, Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Western Balkans

30. Accessing Foreign Policy Information in the Digital Age: Evidence from Greece

Author:
Péter Kacziba
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The digitalization of governance and media has increased the visibility and accessibility of foreign policy, reshaping how citizens engage with international affairs. However, limited research exists on how digital platforms influence the way foreign policy information is accessed and evaluated in specific national contexts. This study addresses this gap by examining the case of Greece. Drawing on a nationwide online survey conducted in February 2024 (N = 800), this analysis investigates citizens’ source preferences, perceptions of credibility, and engagement patterns across socio-demographic groups. The findings reveal that digital platforms have emerged as the dominant sources of foreign policy information. Nevertheless, traditional dynamics of political polarization, selective trust, and fragmented media consumption remain prevalent. These results underscore the constraints of digitalization in expanding democratic participation and highlight the need for foreign policy research and practice to pay greater attention to public opinion and societal dynamics.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Democracy, Media, Polarization, and Digitalization
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

31. Artificial Intelligence and Politics: Legal Dilemmas and Risks to Democracy

Author:
Daniele Battista and Gabriele Uva
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The rapid progress of AI has raised questions about its political, ethical, and legal impact, particularly regarding institutional transparency and citizens’ privacy. This study examined the implications of AI in European politics, evaluating whether it enhances democracy or fosters algorithmic manipulations that contravene ethical and legal norms. Adopting a deductive approach, it examined narratives, scenarios, and expectations regarding the use of AI in decision-making and governance mechanisms. The aim was to offer a critical perspective on the dynamics at play, highlighting the risks, opportunities, and legal protections available. The study contributed to the academic debate on the ethical and regulatory implications of AI in governance, providing insights for future regulation and public policy.
Topic:
Politics, European Union, Democracy, Ethics, Privacy, Artificial Intelligence, Data, and Decision-Making
Political Geography:
Europe

32. How Democracies Defend Themselves Against Authoritarianism

Author:
Robert Benson
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:
Democracies facing authoritarian threats from within have found ways to push back by strengthening institutions, reinforcing democratic norms, and building popular resistance against encroaching autocracy. Understanding these strategies is vital to learning how to fight back.
Topic:
Human Rights, National Security, Authoritarianism, Reform, Elections, Democracy, Transparency, Voting Rights, Donald Trump, Domestic Policy, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, India, Israel, North America, and United States of America

33. The EU in an age of empires: A liberal geopolitical force in the making?

Author:
Niklas Helwig, Juha Jokela, Harald Müller, Sanna Salo, and Saila Heinikoski
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
With the US under President Trump challenging the core principles of the rules-based international order, the EU finds itself in an age of empires. The rise of imperialist politics is forcing the EU to defend liberal democracy and economic stability, and to rely increasingly on likeminded partners in the absence of the US. Rising far-right populism, democratic backsliding, and institutional gridlock are weakening the EU. To maintain internal cohesion and external influence, the EU must reform its decision-making, strengthen democratic legitimacy, and accelerate enlargement through differentiated integration. The EU must redefine its relationships, particularly with the Global South. By stepping up as a development partner and demonstrating responsiveness and consistency rather than relying on purely transactional diplomacy, the EU can solidify its added value on the global stage. Facing economic rivalry with the US, the EU must enhance its competitiveness, deepen the single market, and strengthen the euro. Joint borrowing and fiscal integration could bolster the EU’s resilience and economic statecraft, ensuring that it can “stand up for itself”.
Topic:
Governance, European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:
Europe

34. Four scenarios for the future of transatlantic relations: European autonomy and the American challenge

Author:
Ville Sinkkonen and Garret Martin
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
While concerns about the long-term durability of the US commitment to European security are not new, the unpredictable Trump administration stands out as a serious threat to the foundations of the transatlantic partnership. By analysing the US approach to Europe through the lens of two key variables – investment (whether the US prioritizes Europe) and control (whether the US seeks to dictate Europe’s policy choices) – the Briefing Paper maps out four scenarios for the transatlantic alliance over the next five to ten years. The four scenarios – neglect, partner, vassal, and bloc logic – each present specific challenges and trade-offs for Europe. However, the first two models, neglect and partner, are less thorny on paper because they would preserve European strategic autonomy. Vassal and bloc logic, by contrast, would likely present Europe with far more challenging dilemmas. American pressure to toe the line would compel Europe to choose between unpalatable options, such as surrender or resistance, while testing its ability to preserve autonomy.
Topic:
Power Politics, Governance, Democracy, Transatlantic Relations, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

35. Four lenses for observing the second Trump administration: Reflecting uncertainty

Author:
Charly Salonius-Pasternak and Ville Sinkkonen
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The global security landscape has evolved in the four years since President Donald Trump’s first term. The new administration aims to usher in a “Golden Age of America”, with impacts on domestic politics and society, as well as foreign policy. Unlike in 2017, the incoming administration appears better prepared, with outlined plans and key appointments. However, chaotic decision-making processes and an emphasis on loyalty to Trump are likely to introduce unpredictability into governance and policymaking. The administration’s unified domestic and foreign policy strategy can be viewed through four lenses: national sovereignty, economic nationalism, devolution, and the unmooring of power. The Trump administration is likely to embrace disruption and chaos to achieve revolutionary rather than evolutionary change. This thinking draws on tech-inspired startup culture and generational-revolutionary philosophies, which perceive the US as being in a moment of crisis that will usher in a new historical epoch. Key uncertainties remain regarding the administration’s long-term effects on democracy, alliances, and great power competition, particularly concerning trade-security linkages and alliance relations with Europe and Asia.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, Democracy, Donald Trump, and Great Powers
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

36. Germany’s ‘perfect storm’: A structural crisis for the EU’s engine?

Author:
Marco Siddi, Tuomas Iso-Markku, Harald Müller, and Niklas Helwig
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Germany is facing significant challenges in its foreign and economic policies, most notably the loss of Russian energy supplies, managing the economic partnership with China amid growing geopolitical tensions and, more recently, the prospect of an unfriendly US administration under Donald Trump. Domestically, Berlin is grappling with the consequences of long-term underinvestment in public infrastructure, limited innovation capacity, and sluggish productivity growth. Anti-establishment parties, particularly the far right, have gained popularity, limiting options for coalition governments after the February 2025 election. At the EU level, Germany’s leadership and its partnership with France have suffered setbacks. At the same time, no credible alternatives have emerged that could potentially replace the leading role of the Franco-German tandem. The next German government will have to contend with a deteriorating economic situation, as well as the long-term foreign policy challenges faced by the outgoing government.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, Democracy, and Economy
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

37. Russia’s War in Ukraine: The Resonance of Ukraine’s Resistance

Author:
Ben Heap
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
Ukraine’s messaging resonates because it reflects the audience’s values, beliefs, and historical experiences. Its power lies not only in President Zelenskyy’s skilled communication, social media savvy, and emotional appeals, but in the deeper principles it expresses—justice, sovereignty, and the rule of law. These liberal democratic values define what we are willing to defend.
Topic:
Democracy, Resistance, Narrative, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

38. Post-Summit Analyses: BRICS 2025 and the Rio Declaration

Author:
CEBRI
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:
BRICS expanded faces a crucial moment for multilateralism. The period between the recent summit held in Rio de Janeiro and the upcoming presidency of the bloc in India, in 2026, offers an opportunity to plan the next steps. In its new configuration, following the 2024 expansion, Brazil faces challenges in recalibrating its role within the group. Within the context of new agendas, governance between annual presidencies becomes increasingly important. Brazil’s effort to assert its leadership hinges on influencing the bloc’s agenda during the next presidency, a process that begins as soon as the Rio summit was concluded. In this context, the closed-door meeting aims to analyze Brazil’s real capacity to act as a diplomatic bridge between BRICS and its traditional Western interlocutors, especially the European Union, as well as between the 2025 Summit in Brazil and the 2026 Summit under India’s presidency. Based on Brazil’s and New Delhi’s commitment to democracy and multilateralism, the bridge between these two presidencies may represent an effort to ease tensions, providing greater transparency and predictability to decisions made within BRICS. Additionally, it is essential to deepen the understanding of what can be drawn from the final communiqué, the Leaders’ Declaration of the 17th BRICS Summit, by analyzing the political impacts of the meeting and the developments stemming from the joint declaration.
Topic:
Governance, European Union, Democracy, Multilateralism, and BRICS
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, and Global Focus

39. The Venezuelan labyrinth: A crisis reframed

Author:
Eduardo Massieu Paredes
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Venezuela’s crisis has long been narrated through an opposition prism: crowds in the streets demanding democracy, negotiations or contested ballots. In 2025, the spotlight has shifted. The decisive question is not how hard Venezuelans push but what the United States is prepared to do, and why. A draft defence review proposes a major redeployment. Led by under‑secretary Elbridge Colby, it calls for concentrating military power on the homeland and the Americas. The plan envisages shifting forces away from Europe and the Indo‑Pacific and expanding air and naval operations along the southern U.S. border and throughout the Caribbean. It revives the logic of the Monroe Doctrine: prevent rival powers from embedding in Latin America. For the architects of Washington’s new Venezuela campaign, success will be judged less by what happens in Caracas than by how it plays in Washington DC or Florida. By measuring success in domestic terms, the United States may very well leave Venezuelans no closer to the democracy they seek. Washington’s handling of the Venezuelan crisis could be a preview of a wider strategic realignment. Colby’s “homeland first, hemisphere next” doctrine would pull military assets from the East and surge them into the Americas. Latin America’s response reflects both caution and fatigue. They will hedge: criticise the optics of U.S. gunboat diplomacy while quietly ignoring any weakening of the Maduro regime. The regime’s only remaining legitimacy is the loyalty of its security apparatus and the fear it can instill. The opposition, meanwhile, still holds the moral mandate. That legitimacy now carries even more weight after María Corina Machado was awarded the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize. Against that backdrop, four trajectories remain on the table for the crisis itself: 1) Ruling‑party managed transition; 2) Negotiated exit; 3) Forced removal; 4) Regime endurance. Venezuela’s impasse is fast becoming a proving ground for Washington’s “America first” doctrine and a primary focus on the Western Hemisphere in their foreign policy in decades. The backdrop is a country with its people exhausted, and its institutions hollowed out so internally in Venezuela very little should be expected. A purely theatrical strike may consolidate the status quo rather than topple it. If the United States genuinely wants systemic change, it will need more than sinking boats and slogans, it will need a strategy that endures beyond the next news cycle. Whether that is what President Trump actually seeks remains an open question.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Democracy, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:
South America and Venezuela

40. Multicrimen, Economías Ilícitas y su Impacto en la Gobernanza y Democracia. Caso Nariño, Cauca y Valle del Cauca.

Author:
Germán Nicolás Pataquiva
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Colombia evidencia un patrón de reconfiguración patológica de la gobernanza en regiones como Nariño, Cauca y Valle del Cauca, donde el crimen organizado viene desarticulando el tejido social, imponiendo regímenes locales de terror y desplazando las autoridades legítimas. Estas dinámicas reflejan que se enfrenta una amenaza asimétrica hibrida, en el que estructuras trasnacionales del crimen y de economías ilícitas penetran el Estado, acelerando la erosión democrática. Tal como ocurre en otros contextos iberoamericanos, la convergencia entre violencia armada, cooptación de instituciones y debilitamiento del Estado de derecho generan escenarios en los que actores ilegales disputan con enormes ventajas el monopolio estatal de la fuerza, la tributación y el imperio de la ley. Con lo que se plantea un desafío critico a la seguridad ciudadana y la gobernabilidad por lo que se propone implementar un enfoque multinivel y la creación de una “Fuerza Intermedia”
Topic:
Non State Actors, Governance, Armed Forces, Democracy, Violence, Organized Crime, and Illicit Financial Flows
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

41. A Glimpse of Environmental Procedural Democracy in Poland: Thwarting the Civil Society’s Pursuit of Legal Action Against Environmental Plans

Author:
Karolina Karpus
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
Public participation in environmental matters through access to justice is an indispensable aspect of environmental democracy. It has become increasingly evident that this type of democratic social control over the activities of public authorities should also encompass legislative acts. This poses a significant challenge for the contemporary political-legal system, as is demonstrably evident in the case of Polish environmental plans. Civic control of the legality of such general acts, enacted by public administration bodies in legislative or special procedures, is implemented in two steps. Firstly, it takes the form of participation through comments or questions on the draft of a plan submitted by civic society during the preparatory stage of the law-making process. Secondly, the control focuses on the plans after they are enacted. At this point, it takes the form of legal actions brought by members of the public before national courts in order to investigate the material and procedural legality of environmental plans. However, at present the access to justice in this respect is limited. The aim of the article is to analyse the legal reasons for this deficiency of Polish environmental procedural democracy and to assess it in the light of Poland’s international obligations.
Topic:
Civil Society, Environment, Democracy, Legislation, Justice, and Political Participation
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

42. Media and Democracy in Crisis. A Comparative Analysis of Images of the Riots in the USA in the Public Media of Germany, Poland, and Russia

Author:
Dagmara Głuszek-Szafraniec and Patrycja Szostok-Nowacka
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
This article presents a diverse European perspective on democracy and freedom of expression. The research was conducted on 73 public television materials after the storming of the Capitol in Germany, Poland, and Russia. The content analysis employed 75 categories in the categorization key. The German perspective focused on stabilizing the democratic system after Biden’s win and on respect for democratic values in the USA. The narrative style is centered around change, a natural process in a democracy. Polish public television dominated an atmosphere of anxiety, but the criticism of the democratic opposition in Poland found an analogy between the actions of media corporations and opposition politicians. The materials in the Russian service were biased and directed against American democracy in general. Criticism was levelled at the hypocrisy of the authorities, the inefficiency of democratic procedures, and the lack of respect for political traditions. The portrayal of crisis events in the USA depended on the level of democracy in the country and, to varying degrees, also served as a pretext for criticizing democracy in general and referencing events in the country being analyzed.
Topic:
Democracy, Media, Narrative, January 6, and Public Media
Political Geography:
Russia, Poland, Germany, and United States of America

43. Post-Military Politics and ‘Emi Lokan’ Democracy in Nigeria

Author:
Remi Chukwudi Okeke
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
This paper interrogated post-military politics and ‘Emi Lokan’ democracy in Nigeria. It is a significant contribution to the ongoing academic focus on consolidating democracy in the country. According to the research hypothesis, post-military politics in the country still contain some unnecessary military-governance propensities that have not been fully identified for invalidation. The study examined the meaning of ‘Emi Lokan’ democracy. It investigated its democratic implications. The work was based on a qualitative research design, embedding the consultation of secondary sources of non-numeric data. A key message of the contribution is that the influence of military culture in the current democratic order in the country has remained undiminished. The work found that the ‘Emi Lokan’ political belief in Nigeria owes its distasteful origin to the interference of the military in the governance affairs of the nation. It is concluded in the paper that the undesirable ‘Emi Lokan’ democracy can only be stopped in the country by the coming together of a manifestly new breed of politicians. An auspicious attempt was made in this regard during the 2023 presidential election in the nation.
Topic:
Democracy, Domestic Politics, and Military
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

44. Václav Havel European Dialogues - Human rights and values in international affairs

Author:
Michael Ignatieff, Martin Palouš, Jiri Pehe, and Jacques Rupnik
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Vaclav Havel Library
Abstract:
In the aftermath of 1989, Vaclav Havel thought that human rights, democratic values and foreign policy could advance hand in hand. Today the dominant trend seems, on the contrary, to favour power politics at the expense of Havel’s legacy. The language of human rights, spoken in the past by dissidents, and still used today by lawyers and advocates for victims’ groups, is rarely shared by diplomats and the wider public. In an international arena marked by brutal conflict and war, human rights discourse seems increasingly inadequate. What is left of Havel’s legacy is the possibility to formulate a foreign policy that does not ignore the defence of human rights. The Vaclav Havel Library, in cooperation with the Faculty of Social Sciences of Charles University and supported by the Rockefeller Brothers Fund, invited Michael Ignatieff, politician, academic and author, to address the issue of human rights in international affairs. He discussed this topic with Martin Palouš, Jiri Pehe and Jacques Rupnik, who chaired the event.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Human Rights, International Affairs, European Union, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Europe

45. The Fragility of Democracy | Interview with the Georgian first female president Salome Zourabichvili

Author:
Salomé Zourabichvili and Tomáš Sedláček
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Vaclav Havel Library
Abstract:
Salome Zourabichvili, a Georgian politician and the first female president of her country, is set to visit the Czech Republic at the invitation of the Václav Havel Library and of Pavel Fischer, Chairman of the Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and Security of the Senate of the Czech Parliament. Following parliamentary elections in Georgia in October 2024, the pro-Western president said the result had been manipulated by Russia, pledging to remain in office until new elections were held. However, MPs from the ruling Georgian Dream party, which has a majority in parliament after October’s elections, installed Mikheil Kavelashvili as the country’s new president. The director of the Václav Havel Library, Tomáš Sedláček, conducted an interview with Salome Zourabichvili on recent developments in the country, the backsliding of democracy and Georgia’s geopolitical importance at the Václav Havel Library on Wednesday 9 April 2025.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Democracy, Democratic Backsliding, and Foreign Influence
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, Caucasus, and Georgia

46. Deep Down in the Stack: China's Entrenchment in Serbia's Technology Landscape

Author:
Sharinee Jagtiani
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Serbia, a land-locked nation with a population of under seven million, has emerged as a key player in the PRC’s Digital Silk Road (DSR) initiative within the Western Balkans. Its strategic location, connecting Southeastern Europe to Central and Western Europe, coupled with its role as a regional hub for internet traffic, has positioned Serbia as a valuable springboard for the PRC to market its technologies to the EU. Since 2012, Serbia has been an EU accession candidate and has prioritized digital transformation in its international engagements, notably with the PRC. The country’s commitment to digital advancement is also evident through its participation in the European Commission’s Digital Agenda for the Western Balkans in 2018 and the Digital Europe Program in 2023. Building on previous research conducted at GMF, this report delves into the evolution of the PRC’s DSR in Serbia, employing a technology stack (tech stack) framework to analyze the PRC’s presence. This framework encompasses five layers: network infrastructure, data infrastructure, device, application, and governance. By mapping the involvement of PRC-based entities within each layer, the report offers a detailed overview of the PRC’s technological engagement in Serbia, complete with illustrative examples. The report finds that the PRC and its affiliated entities have emerged as key players in Serbia’s rapid digitalization and modernization of its technology ecosystem. Many PRC technology firms such as Huawei, Nuctech, NetDragon, and BGI (formerly Beijing Genomics Institute)—are present across Serbia’s tech stack. Huawei, in particular, has made notable inroads into Serbia’s foundational network infrastructure. This includes its partnership with Serbia’s largest internet service provider (ISP), the state-owned Telekom Srbija and its positioning as a key partner in the country’s 5G rollout anticipated in 2026. Huawei’s involvement also extends to Serbia’s national and municipal data infrastructure—as a commercial tenant in the national data center and as a financer in Kragujevac’s city data center. These roles, coupled with limited transparency regarding the data stored in state-run facilities, have raised alarm among journalists, activists, and civil society actors about data security and the potential for state-enabled digital surveillance. These concerns have deepened with the introduction of surveillance systems supplied by PRC vendors, particularly under Serbia’s smart and “safe city” initiatives. The PRC’s deepening technological engagement exists in the context of weak implementation of Serbia’s data protection regulation. Serbian political leaders have consistently praised the PRC’s role in supporting their country’s technological ambitions, reflecting a broader strategic partnership that now also includes military cooperation—evident in the procurement of PRC-manufactured military drones and related technology transfers. The PRC’s growing technological footprint also coincides with Serbia’s democratic backsliding, as evidenced by its declining democracy score and its reclassification by Freedom House in 2019 as a “transitional or hybrid regime,” down from a “semi-consolidated democracy”. Collectively, these developments, have created an enabling environment for the emergence of digital surveillance in Serbia.
Topic:
Science and Technology, European Union, Democracy, Digitalization, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
China, Eastern Europe, Asia, and Serbia

47. Europe’s Moment of Truth: A Democracy Shield for Today and Tomorrow

Author:
Vassilis Ntousas and Etienne Soula
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Democracy in Europe is under growing pressure. Authoritarian regimes like Russia and the People’s Republic of China are conducting increasingly sophisticated foreign interference campaigns that blend information manipulation, cyberattacks, malign finance, economic coercion, and kinetic operations. Internally, illiberal actors are eroding the rule of law and civic freedoms as democratic norms deteriorate in the EU’s immediate neighborhood. The EU’s current response often remains fragmented and reactive, exposing it to external interference and internal backsliding. The European Democracy Shield, announced in 2024 and expected in 2025, presents a unique opportunity to consolidate democratic defense. If designed as more than a symbolic initiative, the Shield can equip the EU with a credible, coordinated, and enforceable framework to safeguard democratic integrity at home and project protection outward. The aim of this report is to support the development of an effective and resilient European Democracy Shield. To this end, Part 1 maps the current threat landscape, highlighting the main challenges to democratic systems across the EU. Part 2 identifies key institutional and policy gaps that limit the EU’s capacity to respond to these threats. Part 3 sets out ten actionable recommendations designed to ensure the Shield is not only politically resonant but also operationally impactful. These are: See the forest: Treat authoritarian interference as a longitudinal threat and forge an integrated, cross-domain response. Standardize language to strengthen strategy: Adopt clear and consistent terminology across institutions to support unified strategy and action. Enhance situational awareness: Build a real-time “Democracy Radar” combining EU-wide monitoring, foresight, and national-threat reporting. Maximize enforcement of existing tools: Fully implement and coordinate use of existing tools, most notably the Digital Services Act. Preserve information integrity: Address the financial and regulatory drivers of manipulation and reinforce safeguards around elections. Reinforce national democratic foundations: Link EU support to democratic reform and institutional capacity-building across member states. Develop national anti-foreign information manipulation and interference defenses: Ensure each member state has processes or institutions dedicated to the detection of, and response to, interference. Elevate the defender network: Recognize and protect the foundational role for civil society, media, and citizens in democracy protection. Invest in core support for democratic resilience: Move from short-term grants to strategic, long-term support for core democratic functions. Project protection outward: Support partner democracies with adaptable tools and deepen democratic cooperation globally. Taken together, these steps would transform the Shield into a strategic, whole-of-Union response to both external and internal challenges while positioning Europe as a global leader in demonstrating how democracy can be safeguarded by design, today and tomorrow.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Authoritarianism, European Union, Democracy, Foreign Interference, and Information Manipulation
Political Geography:
Europe

48. How To Help Georgia Out of Its Growing Democracy Crisis

Author:
Irakli Sirbiladze
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Georgia is fighting for its political future. The ruling Georgian Dream party now governs through an expansive repertoire of repressive tools to stifle dissenting political voices. Pro-democracy actors are mounting a resilient resistance to autocratization, seeking to defend a vision of politics in which the country is governed democratically and strong independent institutions guarantee that politicians serve the public and are held to account when they do not. Georgian Dream’s incremental anti-democratic turn became more pronounced as the war in Ukraine and the EU accession process forced it make a choice. It chose an anti-West stance in response to the war and anti-democratic measures to derail EU accession. The result was unprecedented Western sanctions on political figures and the deterioration of ties with the West, especially since the fraudulent parliamentary elections in 2024. At the same time, the government has sought closer ties with China and Russia. Georgian Dream’s hope for business as usual with the West is proving futile, whether regarding the EU or the new administration in the United States. This leaves Georgia increasingly isolated and weakened on the international stage. Georgia’s foreseeable future seems likely to be one of protracted political uncertainty rather than clear-cut autocratic consolidation or democratic comeback. Neither the government nor its opponents have the capabilities to fully achieve their goals. Georgian Dream is constrained by growing societal dissatisfaction with its governance while pro-democracy actors are hampered by the disunity among opposition parties and the increasingly hostile environment for democracy at home and globally. In this context, its Western partners can and must take steps to help Georgia back toward a more democratic path, which would also aid their geopolitical objectives. These include using targeted economic and personal sanctions against figures in Georgian Dream to curtail its repressive apparatus, providing flexible support for Georgian civil society to help it maintain democratic resilience, engaging with public-opinion leaders and the private sector across the country to stress the opportunities that the EU membership offers and to counter anti-West disinformation, and undertaking close-door and public diplomacy efforts, backed up by the credible threat of consequences in case of no action on the part of the government.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democracy, Domestic Politics, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
Caucasus, Georgia, and Black Sea

49. Russia and China in Central Asia’s Technology Stack

Author:
Dylan Welch
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Central Asia’s role as a geopolitical battleground among Russia, China, Europe, and the United States has grown in recent years as Western countries seek trade and digital connectivity routes that bypass Russian infrastructure. While Western discourse on a “Middle Corridor” through Central Asia has focused on railways, ports and pipelines, China’s Digital Silk Road is quietly reshaping the region’s digital landscape and deepening strategic dependencies on Beijing. At the same time, Central Asian governments are drawing primarily on PRC technologies and Russian regulatory models to strengthen their own digital authoritarian regimes, risking joint domination by the increasingly aligned governments in Beijing and Moscow. China’s increasing control over the region’s “technology stack” could have an outsized impact on the future of digital connectivity, cybersecurity, and geopolitical competition across Eurasia. Russia’s regulatory influence on the region’s governments could shape digital governance norms across Eurasia. For Central Asian actors and Western policymakers invested in preserving the region’s strategic autonomy, it is crucial to understand these vulnerabilities and offer viable alternatives in the information and communications technology (ICT) sector. Ensuring a resilient and diversified digital landscape in Central Asia is therefore not only a regional concern but a vital issue for global security. This report seeks to shed light on the influence of Russia and China on the ICT sectors of three Central Asian countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. It uses the “technology stack” method adapted from two previous reports by GMF’s Alliance for Securing Democracy (ASD) on the future internet and the digital information stack released in 2020 and 2022. The framework is used to examine one country’s presence in and penetration of another country’s technology and regulatory ecosystem. The analysis of the resulting dependencies provides an indicative, rather than exhaustive overview of Russia and China’s technological footprint in Central Asia, offering key examples and highlighting areas where policymakers can focus their attention with the goal to de-risk digital technologies and governance in Central Asia.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Democracy, Geopolitics, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Central Asia, Eurasia, and Asia

50. The EU’s New Black Sea Security Strategy: Right Goals, Unclear Means

Author:
Bogdan Cozma and Laurențiu Pleșca
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
The Black Sea region has always been a strategic battlefield of ideologies and influence, not least during the Cold War. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, it experienced a period of relative tranquility as the geopolitical focus shifted toward other hotspots such as the Middle East and the South China Sea. In more recent times—notably after the 2008 Russia-Georgia war and Russia’s 2014 illegal annexation of Crimea and its war in eastern Ukraine—the region and its importance for the security architecture of Europe slowly re-emerged on the agenda of policymakers in the EU and the United States. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 then pushed it to the forefront of transatlantic security concerns. Today there is a clear consensus among the EU, NATO, and the United States that they need a fundamental rethink toward a strong, long-term strategy for the Black Sea. Having expressed its willingness to become more of a geopolitical actor, the EU has now reiterated its commitment to the region by adopting a strategy on Black Sea security, which was published on May 28. The strategy identifies five countries as key players in the region and calls for closer cooperation with them: member states Bulgaria and Romania, candidate countries Moldova and Ukraine, and Türkiye, a NATO member with a substantial military presence and strategic influence in the region. Unfortunately, however, the EU’s new strategy does not contain a concrete action plan, a clear implementation timeline, or, most importantly, a dedicated budget. Without these, the EU’s ability to translate its political intentions into concrete outcomes for the security of the Black Sea states will remain significantly limited. If its strategic approach remains largely declarative, this increases the risk of ceding influence to Russia in the immediate region and beyond it. A more concrete, robust, and coordinated EU security presence there is still urgently needed.
Topic:
Security, European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, Domestic Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Black Sea