Publication Year: within 25 Years and within 10 Years / Topic: Democracy

701. CANDIDATE SELECTION PROCESS AS A TOOL TO SHAPE A PARTY'S DOMINANT COALITION: THE CASE OF THE AKP IN TURKEY

Author:: Gül ARIKAN AKDAĞ
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Alternative Politics
Institution:: Department of International Relations, Abant Izzet Baysal University, Turkey
Abstract:: Since its first incumbency after the 2002 general elections Turkish politics has witnessed considerable changes in the policies of the AKP in economic and political realms. Academics have tried to understand the nature and possible causes of these policy changes mostly focusing on the electoral concerns. This study provides a different dimension to the debate by focusing on the party organization as a possible dynamic preventing / enabling this kind of a policy change. As such, it relates the policy changes of the AKP to the changes in the inner structure of the party organization. This kind of change is tracked through the analysis of the social and political backgrounds of the members of the party's main decision organ-the Central Decision and Administrative Committee.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Political structure, and State Building
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Asia, and Ankara

702. Laboratory of Democracy? Turkey’s Scientific Institutions After the July 15 Coup

Author:: Reuben Silverman
Publication Date:: 10-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: Since Turkey experienced a failed coup attempt a year ago, hardly a week goes by without news of new firings, suspensions, detentions, and arrests. By the end of June 2017, over 138,000 government employees had been removed from their jobs and over 110,000 citizens had been detained—with nearly half of these detentions leading to formal arrests. Numbers of this size are daunting. To put them in perspective and to give some sense of how the post-coup purges have affected institutions and lives in Turkey, consider the case of TÜBİTAK.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Democracy, Economy, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Coup
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

703. The Referendum in Turkey: A Pyrrhic Victory and Continuous Crisis

Author:: Athanasios Manis
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: There is no doubt that the Turkish referendum of 16 April 2017 marks a sea change for Turkey’s political system. Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party (AKP) have narrowly won the referendum that turns his de facto hegemonic presidency into de jure. 51.28% of Turkish citizens approved the 18 proposed constitutional amendments, while 48.72% opposed them. However, the provisions of the constitutional amendments and the statements made by the main political protagonists and antagonists give little hope that the referendum result will bring political stability or economic prosperity; or allow Turkey’s leadership to play a constructive role in Syria and Iraq - at least in the short-term. Furthermore, it is unlikely to enhance the level of cooperation with the EU and the US over the war against the Islamic State (IS) and the refugee crisis.
Topic:: Elections, European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, and Islamic State
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Turkey, and Asia

704. Competing Interests in Shingal District: Policy Recommendations for Defusing Tensions

Author:: Tomáš Kaválek
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: This report concerns the political and security situation in the district of Shingal after the summer of 2014. Specifically, it focuses on the Kurdistan Workers’ Party’s (PKK) presence in the area. In August 2014, the Peshmerga forces hastily withdrew from Shingal district due to the IS (Islamic State) advance. The Yazidi population of the district was then exposed to atrocities at the hands of IS. These events damaged trust between the Yazidi population and the KRG (Kurdistan Regional Government). The PKK entered the stage in Shingal district and aided Yazidis at the onset of IS’ advance. It capitalised on its image of being the saviour of Yazidis and promptly began to build governance and armed structures in the district. The area has thus become an arena of competition between the KRG (especially the Kurdistan Democratic Party– KDP) and Baghdad. PKK’s increasing presence challenges the KDP’s strong influence in the district. The ongoing power struggle in Shingal district also takes place against a background of wider regional competition. The report utilises Zachariah Mampilly’s theoretical framework in order to analyse the effectiveness of rebel governance. It is argued that the model used for PKK-linked political and armed structures in Shingal district follows the PKK’s governance model as it is established in PKK’s leader Abdullah Öcalan’s ideological works and is currently in place in Rojava, run by PKK-affiliated actors. Furthermore, building upon Anna Arjona’s typology of rebel governments, it is asserted that the PKK-linked governance in Shingal district has become, since the summer of 2014, increasingly effective and entrenched despite certain shortcomings stemming mainly from lack of resources to satisfy all the needs of the population. Ultimately, the PKK-linked civilian governance structures represented by the Self-Administration Council and the armed structures of the Sinjar Protection Units find fertile ground among the Yazidi population for their project of self-administration and self-defence for Yazidis in Shingal district. The PKK-linked forces’ influence goes beyond a mere military presence and thus poses a new reality in which the PKK-linked forces are indeed actors which must be taken into consideration in future political arrangements in Shingal district. While outlining the competing interests in the district of Shingal, the paper provides a set of recommendations to the PKK, the PKK-linked actors in the district, the KRG, the GoI, Turkey, and the US with an aim of promoting stabilisation and the well-being of the local population. The best case scenario would include at least partial demilitarisation of the situation in the district while shifting the competition for the population between the GoI, the PKK-linked forces and the KRG into a non-violent domain, instead focusing on trying to win the hearts and minds of the population. Competition within the scope of Iraqi law with an aim of generating as much genuine popular support as possible in the upcoming elections in Iraq is the way forward. In the long-term, the PKK-linked forces should engage in democratic electoral competition with the KRG and aim for integration into governance and administrative structures as per Iraqi law. Both sides could then work on improving their standing electorally.
Topic:: Governance, Democracy, and Islamic State
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan

705. The Sabean-Mandaeans: Perceptions of Reconciliation and Conflict

Author:: Khogir Wirya
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: The Sabean-Mandaean community in Iraq is threatened with extinction. As a result of unabated kidnappings, robberies and killings, much of the community has been displaced from Baghdad and areas in the south of Iraq to the Kurdistan Region and Kirkuk. Considering the particular vulnerability of the community,and the continued security threats present in their areas of origin, community members are currently not considering going back. After the defeat of the Islamic State, the Iraqi government should seize the window of opportunity to promote coexistence, religious pluralism and citizenship. In the short term, however, the Kurdistan Regional Government can play an important role in supporting the continued survival of the Sabean-Mandaean community by adopting a long-term vision towards their settlement in the Region and facilitate their integration in Kurdistan society. The international community who are concerned with religious pluralism in Iraq should seek to support the KRG in its approach and improve the community’s connectedness with its diaspora by reducing restrictions on visiting visas for countries hosting a large number of Sabean-Mandaeans.
Topic:: Security, Democracy, and Islamic State
Political Geography:: Iraq, Baghdad, and Kurdistan

706. After the Kurdistan Referendum: Iraq’s Road to Reconciliation

Author:: Yasir Kuoti
Publication Date:: 10-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: On 25 September 2017, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) held a historic, if contentious, referendum in the three Kurdistan Region’s provinces (Erbil, Duhok, and Sulimanyiah) and disputed territories, including Kirkuk. Notwithstanding the moral grounds for Kurdish self-determination, and despite the Kurds having voted overwhelmingly in favor of independence, the unilateral move was met with strong backlash form varied opponents, for varied reasons. The Iraqi government, parliament and Supreme Court in Baghdad come out against the referendum calling it “illegitimate,” “unconstitutional,” “destabilizing” and “untimely”, as did Turkey, Iran, many western countries and international institutions including the United Nations and European Union. In a retaliatory response, Baghdad moved to impose a host of punitive measures against the KRG. These included the decision by the civil aviation authority of Iraq to halt international flights to and from Erbil and Sulimanyiah airports on September 29, 2017. Now a month into the referendum, Iraqi Prime Minister, Haider al-Abadi, a perceived moderate Shiite, continues to face a mounting pressure from Iraq’s parliament and political parties to take tougher measures against the KRG. In exact, the issue of disputed territories took a center stage as the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), backed by the Popular Mobilization Unit (PMU), moved to reinstitute federal authority in Kurdish-held areas in Kirkuk, Nineveh, Salahddin, and Diyala governorates. The referendum and post-referendum events grew fast over the past few weeks, and it is difficult to undo them for a host of legal and political considerations. Playing the blame game now is not only frustrating, but also impeding to progress. Therefore, it is more constructive that Baghdad and Erbil take steps to calm down emotions and pave the path for meaningful dialogue. Irrespective of what Baghdad leaders think of the referendum or its legality, they cannot take away from the fact that millions of Kurds cast their votes in favor of independence. The Kurds have legitimate fears about the sectarian direction in which the country is heading, a view that is also shared by non-Kurdish Iraqis, particularly Sunni Arabs and many Shiite Arabs, including Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. Such fears need to be acknowledged and dealt with, not dismissed. Baghdad should also take measures to improve communications with the KRG, to mitigate future fears by Kurds. Certainly, a drive behind the timing of the referendum was the fear, real or perceived, by some Kurds that with the defeat of IS, Baghdad will turn focus to the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) to deprive it of its gains. Erbil must recognize that Iraq’s constitution of 2005, which Kurdish voters have largely backed, gave a broad autonomy to Kurdistan Region and unequivocally affirmed that federal authorities have the constitutional duty to “preserve the unity [and] integrity…of Iraq and its federal democratic system.” Kurdish leaders, and many Iraqis too, have issues with the constitution and the political process it stipulated, but in the absence of a better framework, it remains the law of the land. Erbil should also take a leading role in mitigating the fallout from the referendum. The KRG leaders should accept that the referendum has backfired where the best outcome, for the short term at least, is negotiations with Baghdad for a democratic and federal Iraq. Therefore, the KRG might choose to publically demand the implementation of Iraqi constitution. This does not take away from the strategic and aspirational value of the referendum, which is expedient for pushing Kurdish demands over disputed areas, broader autonomy, and other issues. Meanwhile, the KRG leadership would benefit form focusing on its internal challenges including the need to address intra-Kurdish rivalries among political parties, empowering institutions, strengthening the rule of law, and initiating economic reforms. Such political and economic reforms will improve KRG’s negotiating positions with Baghdad. The referendum has given rise to unprecedented political and military tensions between the federal government of Iraq and the KRG. With the mobilization of the ISF, backed by the PMUs, to reclaim federal control over disputed territories, the situation risks igniting an armed confrontation between the two sides in one disputed area or another, especially if Baghdad decides to swing the pendulum too far. Given these developments, the only sensible way forward is for Baghdad and Erbil to make negotiations a priority. It is essential that talks focus not only on procedural and technical issues such as budget, oil sales, and fair distribution of resources, but, more importantly, on the primary issue that divided Baghdad and Erbil and helped trigger the referendum: corruption and sectarianism in the Iraqi state. Iraq’s political system is increasingly turning into an ethno-sectarian battle, which has been the feature of post-2003 Iraq except that it has become much more abrasive in recent years. Political parties throughout Iraq are structuring themselves to whip up sectarian and ethnic divisions to varying extents of extremism. Under the system, each party has become associated with its identity where there is little to no space to an overarching Iraqi national identity. Parties have become accustomed to not only make their constituents polarized along ethnic and sectarian lines, but also make them fearful of fellow countrymen. This state of affairs calls for an urgent action; else cycles of disputes and violence are likely to resurface. Interestingly, the fallout from the referendum has also provided opportunities for dialogue between the KRG and Baghdad. Indeed, the KRG Cabinet in its meeting of 19 October reemphasized the need for negotiations without pre-conditions and that the KRG is ready for dialogue. If and when reconciliations efforts take place, it is critical they address revising the constitution and structure of government. Negotiations are far better when they are outcome-driven with defined timelines, addressing the need for a non-sectarian and non-divisive arrangement. Prime Minister Abadi must seize on his successes to steer the country’s ship toward a unified vision that can bring about the will to address problems rooted in the political system, which feeds on ethno-sectarian divisions and is the greatest barrier to development. The international community, particularly the United States, has historic opportunities to positively influence the future of Iraq by articulating a peaceful settlement to the crisis and encouraging meaningful negotiations between Baghdad and the KRG. Furthermore, the U.S. should promote dialogue within the major political parties in the KRI while leveraging its influence to redirect attention toward liberating remaining IS strongholds in western Iraq. The U.S is also encouraged to provide Iraq with legal and technical assistance needed to launch reforms and national reconciliations initiatives. The U.S and Iraqi leaders need to work together to dispel fears held by minorities, encouraging them to integrate into a better version of federal and democratic Iraq. Being part of the coalition government in Baghdad, Kurds have a key role to play in making progress toward national reconciliations and reforms.
Topic:: Self Determination, Democracy, Independence, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Baghdad, and Kurdistan

707. The Global Exchange (Spring 2017)

Author:: David J. Bercuson, Randolph Mank, Sarah Goldfeder, Mike Day, David Perry, Peter Jones, David Carment, Milana V. Nikolko, Brett Boudreau, Rolf Holmboe, Darren Schemmer, Andrew Griffith, and Robert Vineberg
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Global Exchange
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: The Global Exchange is the Canadian Global Affairs Institute’s quarterly magazine featuring topical articles written by our fellows and other contributing experts. Each issue contains approximately a dozen articles exploring political and strategic challenges in international affairs and Canadian foreign and defence policy. This Spring 2017 issue includes articles on trade, defense policy, elections and more.
Topic:: Defense Policy, War, Bilateral Relations, Budget, Elections, Democracy, Negotiation, Peace, and Trade
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Canada, Syria, North America, United States of America, and Gambia

708. Democracy and its Deficits: The path towards becoming European-style democracies in Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine

Author:: Ghia Nodia, Denis Cenusa, and Mikhail Minakov
Publication Date:: 12-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine are three participating states of the European Partnership that have chosen to conclude Association Agreements with the European Union, often at the expense of relations with their most powerful neighbour, Russia. They are also rather similar in their levels of democratic development. Within a post-Soviet space, they stand out for their relatively high level of democratic freedoms and political pluralism; none of them, however, can be considered a consolidated democracy, and most analysts describe them as uncertain or hybrid political regimes that combine features of autocracy and democracy. This paper offers a comparative analysis of the three countries’ political systems and aims to interpret both the roots of their relative success, and the nature of the deficits that prevent them from consolidating their democratic institutions. Among these deficits are problems stemming from ethnic, regional and cultural conflicts; strong and weak features in their general constitutional systems; the links between democratic development and government capacity to produce public goods; state capture (including control over the most influential media organisations) by powerful oligarchs and endemic corruption; underdevelopment of political parties and party systems; insufficient trust towards institutions of electoral democracy and a resulting propensity to use extra-constitutional means of political struggle. Civil society organisations have also failed penetrate the wider public and the anti-liberal discourse of traditionally dominant churches and anti-Western media and civil society groups is often supported by Russia. Despite these structural challenges, the commitment to European values and norms demonstrated by societies in these three countries gives hope that they can eventually consolidate their democratic institutions. It is argued that closer ties to the EU are important in explaining their relatively high level of democratic development. For this reason, the consistent and enhanced commitment of the European Union to this region is crucial to their continued success in this area.
Topic:: Democratization, Politics, European Union, Partnerships, Democracy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia

709. Opportunities and Challenges of Ensuring Stability in Kenya’s 2017 General Elections

Author:: Charles Nyuykonge and Nonjabulo Buhle Mazibuko
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: With Africa having steadily begun the litany of elections billed for 2017, the orderly manner in which Somalia’s elections took place restored a glimmer of hope in those who think only the worst for Africa’s democratic and electoral maturity. With over 20 elections scheduled to take place before December 2017, the African Union Commission (AUC) has identified potential fault lines across Kenya’s election processes, and those in Liberia, as sites for election-related violence. Accordingly, among other things, the AUC has trained approximately 50 long-term election observers to be deployed to Kenya, Liberia and other states – based on empirical evidence that these particular cases could be cause for concern. This Policy and Practice Brief (PPB) examines the prospect for a peaceful election in Kenya, and offers insights on what can be done to mitigate any possible election-related violence. With respect to the state of readiness of election management bodies (EMB), the Supreme Court and the government to deliver credible elections, this PPB examines and brings to light challenges that could potentially trigger election-related violence, with the view to make recommendations on how to mobilise key stakeholders to invest in supporting local and under utilised institutions or existing processes and practices capable of mitigating election-related violence. Some of these stakeholders are critical in ensuring the identification of conflict triggers, forewarning about them and preventing their escalation to national crises and conflict. Civil society organisations (CSOs), regional and international organisations should, in the build-up to the 8 August election, effectively co-ordinate their pre-assessment field visits to Kenya so as to identify potential options to avert the likelihood of election-related violence in the country.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Elections, and Democracy
Political Geography:: Kenya, Africa, Liberia, and Somalia

710. In Defense of Democracy: Lessons from ECOWAS' Management of The Gambia's 2016 Post-Election Impasse

Author:: Brown Odigie
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: The years 2015 and 2016 were crucial for the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) from the perspective of its efforts to ensure sustainable peace and stability in the region, through supporting the conduct of peaceful elections and the orderly transfer of power. A total of 10 of its 15 member states held elections in 2015 and 2016. ECOWAS has a rich history of managing political transitions and elections in the past 18 years, following the adoption of the 1999 Protocol Relating to the Mechanism for Conflict Prevention, Management, Resolution, Peace-keeping and Security (referred to as “the mechanism”), as well as the 2001 Supplementary Protocol on Democracy and Good Governance. This Policy and Practice Brief (PPB) examines ECOWAS’ interventions around the electoral processes of its member states, with particular focus on its management of the 2016 post-election impasse in The Gambia. This highlights how effective a mediation process can be when mandates are grounded within institutions’ normative and legal instruments, and when international actors work in partnership with regional organisations with respect to the principles of subsidiarity, complementarity and comparative advantages. The lessons from this intervention might therefore be relevant to other regional economic communities (RECs), the African Union (AU) and the United Nations (UN) in avoiding the pitfalls of working in silos or engaging in a multiplicity of interventions, which are often at cross-purposes.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Democratization, Peacekeeping, Elections, Democracy, and Peace
Political Geography:: Africa and Gambia

711. Conference Proceedings 9: Accomplishments, Plans and Lessons Learned

Author:: Philipp H. Fluri, Oleksiy Melnyk, Nazli Yildirim, Pavlo Pynzenyk, Oleksandr Lytvynenko, Jaap Frederiks, Barbara Maronkova, Mykhaylo Lopatin, Viktor Musiyaka, Kestutis Lancinskas, Oleksandr Vodyannikov, Andrew Cuthbert, Archl Tsintsadze, Valentyn Petrov, Artem Bidenko, Anatoliy Petrenko, and Viktor Plakhuta
Publication Date:: 10-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Razumkov Centre
Abstract:: This publication offers the proceedings of Conference 9 on “Accomplishments, Plans and Lessons learned” in the framework of “Monitoring Ukraine’s Security Governance Challenges” project. The 9th conference was the last public event of the two-year project aimed at developing multidimensional opportunities to support reform efforts and assist the development of democratic governance in Ukrainian security sector. The Conference aimed to summarise the project results, as well as make an assessment of SSR achievements in reference to the strategic objectives set three years prior, in order to identify the most problematic areas and to put forward practical solutions.
Topic:: Security, Civil Society, Governance, Democracy, Media, and Institutions
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

712. Key Issues and Policy Recommendations Compilation

Author:: Philipp H. Fluri, Oleksiy Melnyk, and Nazli Yildirim Schierkolk
Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Razumkov Centre
Abstract:: This publication provides an overview of the key issues discussed and policy recommenda- tions proposed during the series of conferences for the project “Monitoring Ukraine’s Security Governance Challenges”. The project was implemented jointly by DCAF and the Razumkov Centre with the financial support of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands. This report compiles key issues and recommendations for all 9 conference and is intended to serve as a reference point for future needs assessments, as well as for further consultations with Ukrainian and international stakeholders. The key issues are categorised thematically, rather than by conference, since certain issues were discussed in several events. Each sub-section concludes with respective policy recommendations.
Topic:: Security, Civil Society, Corruption, International Organization, Governance, Democracy, Media, Legislation, and Institutions
Political Geography:: Geneva, Ukraine, Switzerland, and Global Focus

713. Key Issues and Policy Recommendations, Conference 8

Author:: Philipp H. Fluri, Oleksiy Melnyk, and Nazli Yildirim
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Razumkov Centre
Abstract:: This publication offers the Key Issues and Policy Recommendations based on the results of the Eighth International Conference “Human Rights and Security Sector Governance: Ukraine’s Reform Challenges”. Since 2014, Ukraine’s security sector has been undergoing reforms. The implementation of state reforms are supported and monitored by Ukrainian civil society and the international community. Whereas certain aspects of reforms have been considered successful, the need for enhanced human rights compliance in the security sector of Ukraine, in particular with respect to ensuring accountability for human rights violations, the protection of the rights of civilians in the Anti-terrorism Operation (ATO), as well as preventing and responding to gender-based violence has been repeatedly pointed out. Conference Eight, following to the previous conferences recommendations, provided a platform to discuss the above mentioned issues.
Topic:: Security, Civil Society, Gender Issues, Human Rights, International Organization, Democracy, Media, Institutions, and Whistle Blowing
Political Geography:: Ukraine and Global Focus

714. Conference Proceedings 7: Ukraine’s Civilian Security Sector–Reforms

Author:: Philipp H. Fluri, Oleksiy Melnyk, and Nazli Yildirim
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Razumkov Centre
Abstract:: This publication offers the proceedings of Conference 7 on Security Sector Governance in Ukraine. The conference addressed Ukraine’s Civilian Security Sector: Reforms’ Progress and Challenges. The objectives of this event were to identify current reform priorities and challenges; pinpoint weaknesses in oversight structures and relevant solutions; determine relevant lessons learned and best practices; and define capacity development needs. The Civilian Security Sector in Ukraine embraces a wide range of the national non-military structures including but not limited to law-enforcement and rule of law agencies. Key roles in civil security issues belong to Parliament, civil society and Media, which support and control activities of the Civilian Security Sector.
Topic:: Security, Governance, Democracy, and Institutions
Political Geography:: Ukraine and Global Focus

715. Key Issues and Policy Recommendations, Conference 1

Author:: Philipp H. Fluri, Oleksiy Melnyk, and Nazli Yildirim
Publication Date:: 12-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Razumkov Centre
Abstract:: This publication offers the Key Issues and Policy Recommendations based on the results of the First International Conference “Monitoring Ukraine’s Security Governance Challenges: Status and Needs”. Conference One sought to examine and document challenges to the Ukrainian security sector, while explaining again the notion of the security sector governance and reform, along with such concepts as transparency and accountability, efficient and effective management, and the dangers posed to security by corruption.
Topic:: Security, Civil Society, Governance, Reform, Democracy, Media, Institutions, and Oversight
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

716. Key Issues and Policy Recommendations, Conference 2

Author:: Philipp H. Fluri, Oleksiy Melnyk, and Nazli Yildirim
Publication Date:: 12-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Razumkov Centre
Abstract:: This publication offers the Key Issues and Policy Recommendations based on the results of the Second International Conference “Security Sector Governance: The Role of Democratic Institutions & International Best Practices”. Conference Two, following to the first conference recommendations, sought to examine current Ukraine’s security sector governance challenges by highlighting the role of democratic institutions and the international best practices.
Topic:: Security, Human Rights, Democracy, Legislation, Institutions, Judiciary, and Human Resources
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

717. Comparative Continuismo: Presidential Term Limit Contravention Across Developing Democracies

Author:: Kristin McKie
Publication Date:: 12-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: Since presidential term limits were (re)adopted into many constitutions during the third wave of democratization, 207 presidents across Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia have reached the end of their terms in office. Of these, 30% have attempted to contravene term limits whereas 70% have stepped down in compliance with tenure rules. Furthermore, of the presidents who have attempted to alter tenure restrictions, some have succeeded in fully abolishing term limits, others have only managed a one-term extension, while a minority have failed in their bids to secure any additional terms in office. What explains these divergent trajectories? On the basis of a series of statistical analyses, I argue that trends in electoral competition over time are the best predictor of the range of term limit contravention outcomes across the board, with the least competitive elections permitting full term limit abolition and the most competitive elections saving off attempts at altering executive tenure rules. Furthermore, results show that failed contravention attempts are true borderline cases, rather than instances gross miscalculations of success by the president and her party, in that they feature less competitive elections than non-attempt cases but more competitive elections than successful contravention cases. These findings suggest a linkage between political uncertainty and constitutional stability more generally.
Topic:: Democratization, Democracy, Institutions, and Political Parties
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Asia, and Latin America

718. The Last Straw: Responding to Russia’s Anti-Western Aggression

Author:: Mieke Eoyang, Evelyn Farkas, Ben Freeman, and Gary Ashcroft
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Third Way
Abstract:: In this paper, we argue that Russia’s interference in the 2016 presidential election is just one part of a wide-ranging effort by Moscow to undermine confidence in democracy and the rule of law throughout countries in the West. Russia has engaged in this effort because, in both economic and demographic terms, it is a declining power – the only way it can “enhance” its power is by weakening its perceived adversaries. Because Russia’s aim is to erode the health of Western nations, we argue it is time for America and its allies to employ a comprehensive, non-kinetic response to contain Russia.
Topic:: Security, Elections, Cybersecurity, Democracy, Foreign Interference, and Election Interference
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Europe, and North America

719. The Signs of Deconsolidation

Author:: Roberto Stefan Foa and Yascha Mounk
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Democracy
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: In recent years, parties and candidates challenging key democratic norms have won unprecedented popular support in liberal democracies across the globe. Drawing on public opinion data from the World Values Survey and various national polls, we show that the success of anti-establishment parties and candidates is not a temporal or geographic aberration, but rather a reflection of growing popular disaffection with liberal-democratic norms and institutions, and of increasing support for authoritarian interpretations of democracy. The record number of anti-system politicians in office raises uncertainty about the strength of supposedly “consolidated” liberal democracies and highlights the need for further analysis of the signs of democratic deconsolidation.
Topic:: Democracy, Liberal Order, Norms, and Deconsolidation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

720. The 2016 U.S. Election: Can Democracy Survive the Internet?

Author:: Nathaniel Persily
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Democracy
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: The 2016 presidential election represents the latest chapter in the disintegration of the legacy institutions that had set bounds for U.S. politics in the postwar era. It is tempting (and in many ways correct) to view the Donald Trump campaign as unprecedented in its breaking of established norms of politics. Yet this type of campaign could only be successful because established institutions—especially the mainstream media and political-party organizations—had already lost most of their power, both in the United States and around the world. The void that these eroding institutions left was filled by an unmediated populist nationalism tailor-made for the Internet age.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Internet, and Election Interference
Political Geography:: United States and North America

721. The End of the Postnational Illusion

Author:: Ghia Nodia
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Democracy
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: With the advance of modernization, nationalism was supposed to fade away. Yet everywhere we look, even in advanced democracies, nationalism’s influence seems larger than ever. What did we get wrong? The assumption (sometimes implicit) in most theories of nationalism is that it belongs to early modernization and therefore is bound, as development advances, to outgrow its utility and become marginal or even (in the Marxist view) vanish altogether. This understanding allows for a happy congruence between normative and theoretical views. Normatively, nationalism is considered bad because it is antiliberal, opposes individual rights, is hostile to minorities, generally opposes diversity, and so on. But luckily, nationalism is also historically doomed because history will make it redundant. It is this assumption of happy congruence that we must now give up.
Topic:: Nationalism, Democracy, Modernization, and Postnationalism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

722. India’s Democracy at 70: Growth, Inequality, and Nationalism

Author:: Ashutosh Varshney
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Democracy
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: Of late, Indian democracy has been confronted with a new political economy. Strong economic growth over the last three decades has generated the world’s fourth-largest collection of dollar billionaires and the third-largest middle class, both for the first time in Indian history, while still leaving the single largest concentration of the poor behind. In a democracy where the lower-income groups have come to vote as much as, or more than, the higher-income groups, the polity must find creative ways of walking on two legs: maintaining the momentum of economic growth while also taking care of mass welfare.
Topic:: Political Economy, Elections, Democracy, and Welfare
Political Geography:: India and Asia

723. The Pipe Dream of Undemocratic Liberalism

Author:: Sheri Berman
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Democracy
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: Over the past decade illiberal democracy has spread across the globe. Many analysts argue that democracy itself is to blame. Democracy is all about empowering the people, but, according to this line of argument, the people can be moved by passions and self-interest, and their unchecked rule can lead to tyrannical majoritarianism. While illiberal democracy is certainly worrying, many of its critics fundamentally misunderstand how democracy has traditionally developed and what its historical relationship with liberalism has been. Rather than the norm, liberal democracy has been the exception. Moreover, illiberal democracy is most often a stage on the route to liberal democracy rather than the endpoint of a country’s political trajectory. In addition, although democracy unchecked by liberalism can slide into tyrannical majoritarianism, liberalism unchecked by democracy can easily deteriorate into elitist oligarchy.
Topic:: Democracy, Liberal Order, Elites, and Illiberal Democracy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

724. The Real Lessons of the Interwar Years

Author:: Jorgen Moller, Svend-Erik Skaaning, and Agnes Cornell
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Democracy
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: Several observers have recently invoked interwar political developments to make the case that even established democracies are fragile and vulnerable to breakdown. However, the real lesson of the interwar period is that even crises as devastating as the Great Depression and the political success of totalitarian movements did little to undermine the stability of established democratic systems. Only in new and fragile democracies did the economic, political, and social dislocations of the 1920s and 1930s tear apart the democratic fabric. Although long established democracies in Western Europe and North America may today be facing a perilous situation, the interwar experience does not lend support to the argument that they are fragile.
Topic:: Democracy, Fragile States, Totalitarianism, and Great Depression
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and Western Europe

725. The Kremlin Emboldened: Putin Is Not Russia

Author:: Vladimir V. Kara-Murza
Publication Date:: 10-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Democracy
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: This essay chronicles Vladimir Putin’s successful efforts to transform Russia from the flawed democracy of the 1990s to the fully fledged authoritarian regime it is today, with falsified elections; censorship of the major media outlets; and repression of the opposition. Yet there are growing numbers of Russians—especially among the young generation—who are prepared to stand up against autocracy and corruption, as demonstrated by the nationwide protests that began in 2017. In the author’s view, the trends (and the demographics) are not in the Kremlin’s favor, and this emerging movement will eventually succeed in bringing the rule of law and democracy to Russia. It is important for Western leaders to maintain dialogue with Russian society and to avoid equating Russia with the current regime.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Democracy, Repression, Dictatorship, and Censorship
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Eastern Europe

726. The Kremlin Emboldened: What Is Putinism?

Author:: M. Steven Fish
Publication Date:: 10-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Democracy
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: Under Vladimir Putin, Russia’s ruling class again claims to represent a superior alternative to liberal democracy. How can we theorize this regime? Putinism is a form of autocracy that is conservative, populist, and personalistic. Its conservatism means that Putinism prioritizes maintaining the status quo and avoiding instability. Conservatism also overlaps with Putinism’s populism in crowd-pleasing broadsides against gay rights and feminism, but gives that populism a distinct cast when it comes to questions of social spending and interethnic or interconfessional relations. Finally, as a personalist autocracy, Putinism rests on one-man rule. Yet the identification of the regime with a single person may fatally undermine Putinism’s effectiveness in its self-appointed role as a bulwark against upheaval.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Democracy, Liberal Order, and Conservatism
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Eastern Europe

727. Eroding Norms and Democratic Deconsolidation

Author:: Paul Howe
Publication Date:: 10-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Democracy
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: Two recent papers in the Journal of Democracy highlight a disturbing erosion in public support for core democratic principles in a number of Western democracies over the past twenty years. The common assumption is that this trend reflects growing public dissatisfaction with the operation of the democratic system. This paper (focused on the United States and drawing upon World Values Survey data) rejects this interpretation and argues instead that the rise of antidemocratic opinion is more closely linked to shifting social and cultural values, in particular burgeoning antisocial attitudes. Disregard for democratic norms is part of a larger social transformation that has seen rising disengagement and alienation, particularly among younger generations and lower socioeconomic classes.
Topic:: Democracy, Norms, Deconsolidation, and antidemocratic
Political Geography:: Global Focus

728. Nuclear Governance and Legislation in Four Nuclear-Armed Democracies

Author:: Avner Cohen and Brandon Mok
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Abstract:: The report presents a set of comparative raw data on the question of how four Western democratic nuclear-weapon states— the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Israel—handle the essential tension between nuclear weapons (which require secrecy) and liberal democracy. The initial intent of this work was to assist Dr. Cohen in his preparations for an unprecedented hearing at the Israeli High Court of Justice in September 2017, whereby the Court would hear a petition, signed by over 100 Israeli citizens, calling for regulation and oversight of the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission. The petitioners cited the legal lacuna under which Israel’s nuclear activities operate, devoid of oversight and beyond the realm of law, in violation of fundamental democratic principles. In particular, the study assesses the comprehensiveness—the breadth and depth—of the legislative, regulatory, scientific, and policy mechanisms that each of these four democratic states have created to govern its nuclear affairs in the following categories or parameters: legislation, organizations (directly responsible for either civilian and military applications of nuclear materials or both), regulation, oversight, secrecy, and policy making. Such material has never before been publicly available in a condensed form in one location, making this study of use to anyone interested in the problem of governing the atom. It will be updated as structures and policy change.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Military Affairs, Democracy, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, Middle East, Israel, France, North America, and United States of America

729. On the Borders of Cultural Relativism, Nativism, and International Society: A Promotion of Islamist Democracy in the Middle East after the Arab Uprisings

Author:: Metin Koca
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: This article focuses on post-Arab-uprising calls for democratization in the Middle East. Scrutinizing the then-Turkish government’s coupling of a cultural relativist norm-promotion discourse in the global arena with a nativist discourse in the Middle East, the paper examines how much our current conceptual tools can explain successes and failures in this process. The article focuses on two schools of thought that pay considerable attention to the role of culture in institution-building: the English School of International Relations (ES) and the nativist strand of post-colonialism. It touches upon two problems in the ES literature and offers two solutions: (1) It reinforces attention on Buzan’s conception of interhuman society compared to the ad hoc blending of different levels of abstraction in cultural analyses. (2) It aims to initiate a dialogue for a more precise distinction between various ideational and behavioral components of the concept of culture, since these components do not necessarily fit well together. Considering these two caveats, the article operationalizes culture in the given case to examine some limitations of the nativist ideological perception of cultural zones and its concurrent claims over true nativity. The paper seeks these limitations, first, by analyzing the extent of cultural commonalities between three sub-regional Islamist movements that shared a strong common identity, and second, by examining the dialogue between ideological mismatches in the constitution-making processes of Egypt and Tunisia.
Topic:: International Relations, Culture, Democracy, Arab Spring, Identity, and Relativism
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

730. The Politics of Effective Aid and Interstate Conflict

Author:: Ömer F. Örsün
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: The link between foreign aid and military conflict has received little attention in both aid effectiveness and interstate conflict research. This study provides a first-cut analysis of the impact of foreign aid on interstate conflict among recipient countries. In doing so, it opens the black box of state and builds on the previous research in the aid effectiveness literature and on the signaling processes in the conflict literature. Previous research indicates that the effectiveness of aid in improving citizen welfare is conditional on the presence of democratic institutions. This study shows that this conditional relationship has a detrimental effect on crisis bargaining outcomes. Foreign aid, on the one hand, increases citizen welfare in democratic regimes; hence, also governments’ ex- ante re-election prospects. On the other hand, foreign aid retards government ability to generate audience costs and to send informative signals to their opponents. Analyzing all dyads from 1961 to 2001 yields robust support for this view. As aid inflows increase, targets’ resistance propensity against threats issued by democratic governments becomes statistically indistinguishable from threats issued by autocratic governments. Moreover, democratic states are not significantly more peaceful to each other than non-democratic pairs once we take into account the amount of foreign aid they receive.
Topic:: Foreign Aid, Democracy, Conflict, and Aid Effectiveness
Political Geography:: Global Focus

731. Civil Resistance against Coups: A Comparative and Historical Perspective

Author:: Stephen Zunes
Publication Date:: 12-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Center on Nonviolent Conflict (ICNC)
Abstract:: Nations are not helpless if the military decides to stage a coup. On dozens of occasions in recent decades, even in the face of intimidated political leaders and international indifference, civil society has risen up to challenge putschists through large-scale nonviolent direct action and noncooperation. How can an unarmed citizenry mobilize so quickly and defeat a powerful military committed to seizing control of the government? What accounts for the success or failure of nonviolent resistance movements to reverse coups and consolidate democratic gains? This monograph presents in-depth case studies and analysis intended to improve our understanding of the strategic utility of civil resistance against military takeovers; the nature of civil resistance mobilization against coups; and the role of civil resistance against coups in countries’ subsequent democratization efforts (or failure thereof). It offers key lessons for pro-democracy activists and societies vulnerable to military usurpation of power; national civilian and military bureaucracies; external state and non-s
Topic:: Political Activism, Democracy, Protests, Coup, Resistance, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:: Global Focus

732. What We Think about When We Think of Crime

Author:: Michelle Nicholasen
Publication Date:: 10-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Jean and John Comaroff, professors in the Departments of African and African American Studies and of Anthropology, divide their teaching and research between Harvard and universities in South Africa. Their scholarship has focused on colonialism and the transformation of societies in the postcolonial and late modern worlds. A recent joint effort, The Truth about Crime, documents their “existential engagement” with the interplay of crime, policing, and sovereignty, in response to what they see as a rising global preoccupation. The Comaroffs joined the academic boycott of South Africa in the 1970s and 1980s until the transition of power and formal end of apartheid in 1994. Upon their return to Cape Town, they immediately noticed an overwhelming preoccupation with crime in South Africa. Their desire to unpack this obsession, and what it says about modernity and our relationship to the state, is the subject of their book. Together, the Comaroffs consider the economic, political, and sociological shifts that underlie modern attitudes toward criminality and how these shifts have contributed to the fear of one another, to racial violence, and to public distrust in government. The Weatherhead Center spoke to the Comaroffs from their home in Cape Town, and asked them to tease out some of the complex relationships between crime and policing and how they affect the concept of citizenship.
Topic:: Crime, Politics, Democracy, and Police
Political Geography:: Africa, United States, South Africa, and North America

733. First Universal Democratic Elections in Independent Georgia

Author:: Zurab Gaiparashvili
Publication Date:: 02-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Foundation for Electoral Systems
Abstract:: First Universal Democratic Elections in Independent Georgia offers a detailed overview of the first national democratic elections conducted in the Republic of Georgia in 1919. These elections served as an acknowledgement of Georgia's independence, which gave it autonomy for the next three years. The book portrays the spirit of multiculturalism being practiced in the lead up to and during the elections, through the development of campaign materials in several languages, such as Georgian, Farsi, Armenian and Russian, as well as allocating special quotas. It also reflects on how various ethnic groups were encouraged to represent their respective communities, with the participation of the Greek’s Democratic Party in elections offered as an example. The first democratic elections proved to be successful in creating gender parity for women and men of Georgia. Other impressive aspects of these elections were how well structured reimbursement procedures were developed for parties and other procedures were conducted professionally, practicing the principles of equality, accessibility and accountability. The book enables readers to get an insight into how Georgia’s newly established government tried to embark on an endeavor to build a democratic state, which would ensure prosperity and equality for its people. It also sheds a light on how advanced Georgian state bodies were in the first half of the 20th century, as the country strived for independence and development while being surrounded by the Russian and Ottoman empires. Representation and engagement of women and ethnic minority groups also serves as a best practice for that period. The book offers a wide range of visual materials, which provide a better understanding of processes and circumstances of not just elections, but the general political situation in the country and contains documentary materials and historical photos.
Topic:: Multiculturalism, Elections, Democracy, and Diversity
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Eastern Europe, and Georgia

734. Democratic Governance and the Frightening Impact of Corruption in Contemporary Nigerian Society

Author:: Christian Chima Chukwu
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Studies of Changing Societies Journal (SCS)
Institution:: Studies of Changing Societies Journal (SCS)
Abstract:: This work examines democratic governance and the frightening impact of corruption in contemporary Nigerian society in a bid to restore confidence in good governance and also improve the socio- economic development of the citizenry after fifty seven years of independence. Related literatures to the variables were reviewed including the adoption of the descriptive and content analytical method in the analysis of the secondary data in order to achieve the objectives of this study. Also, the social learning theory was employed as theoretical framework to find essence. Findings reveal that the phenomenon of corruption has evidently graduated beyond impunity, both in volume, scale, breadth, depth and has become a national cancer. In addition, the study notes that corruption has swallowed up Nigerian politicians into yet other webs of delusion, and deception such that the pursuit of corrupt practices by them, seem greeted with ovation. Aside this, the paper also highlights that since the mad rush for corrupt practices, especially amongst politicians seems impossible to abate, the alarming rate of vicious opulence which has engulfed the Nigerian nation clearly demonstrates naivety, desperation and un-Godly helplessness. Based on all these, the paper suggests that there is the urgent need to halt the hypocritical position in corruption cases involving high influential members of the government as well as the immunity covertly granted their cronies. The paper recommends that amongst other measures, government should not only be transparent in enforcing all relevant laws against corruption, but prosecute all those found culpable. Finally, Judicial Service Commission as autonomous body should halt the incessant dismissal of corrupt cases by judges on technical grounds, as well as continuing to beam its searchlight on all corrupt judicial officers.
Topic:: Corruption, Economics, Governance, Democracy, Financial Crimes, Transparency, and Judiciary
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

735. Guarantees of election rights of citizens of the Republic of Uzbekistan

Author:: Odiljon Tojiev
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: According to the Law on elections of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan the most important guarantees for adhering to and ensuring universally recognized international principles of electoral law are: • First, conducting transparent and open, free and genuine, fair elections (art. 5, Law); • Second, organization and conduct of elections of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan by independent electoral commissions (art. 4, Law); • Third, state financing the elections of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan and electoral campaign of candidates (art. 6, Law); • Fourth, state informational support to elections of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan and pre-election agitation (chapter IV, Law); • Fifth, participation in elections of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan by national, international and foreign observes (art. 5, Law); • Sixth, appealing and responsibility for violation of legislation on elections of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan (art. 7, Law); • Seventh, taking non-discrimination measures (art. 2, Law).
Topic:: Law, Elections, Democracy, Citizenship, and Transparency
Political Geography:: Central Asia and Uzbekistan

736. The Ethnification of Electoral Conflicts in Kenya

Author:: Muema Wambua
Publication Date:: 12-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Kenya has since the re-introduction of multiparty politics in 1991 experienced periodic electoral conflicts. In the analysis of these conflicts, however, there is an evolving tendency to perceive their causes as merely, or mainly, manifestations of negative ethnicity. In other words, there is the tendency on the part of the state, and non-state actors, to deliberately ‘ethnify’ extra-ethnic conflicts in the country in a phenomenon herein conceptualised as ethnification. The ethnification of extra-ethnic conflicts has caused the country to continually drift into an electoral-conflict trap. The failure to address substantive extra-ethnic factors which have historical, structural, institutional, legal, and cultural standpoints has constrained the pursuit of positive peace in the country. This paper, therefore, examines the evolving tendency to treat extra-ethnic electoral conflicts from the ethnic-identity premise. The centrality of underlying causes and rationales of electoral conflict that are extra-ethnic is highlighted, and a way forward for the pursuit of positive peace in the country is recommended.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Ethnicity, and Peace
Political Geography:: Kenya and Africa

737. The Quest for Happiness as an Underlying Motive for Violent Conflict in Africa

Author:: Mark Chingono
Publication Date:: 12-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Violent conflicts continue to be a major feature of much of Africa’s political landscape. Not only are Africa’s conflicts increasing, but they are also interpreted and theorised in varied ways, with irreducible discrepancies. In the dominant literature, ethnicity, religion, resources, territory, poor governance, and the struggle for power, among others, have been identified as the major causes of violent conflict on the continent. This paper, a broad brush that raises more questions than answers, argues that, underlying these apparent causes of violent conflict is the undying desire for happiness. It concludes by paraphrasing Von Clausewitz’s dictum that war in Africa is a pursuit of happiness by other means and, therefore, to prevent it, policy should promote popular happiness.
Topic:: Governance, Democracy, Ethnicity, Conflict, and Identity
Political Geography:: Africa

738. Freeing the “Rice Bowl of Asia”: How Changing Patterns of Interdependence are Driving Political Change in Myanmar

Author:: Alex Ripley
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Security and Development, Dalhousie University
Abstract:: Wedged between Southeast Asia, China, and the Indian subcontinent, Myanmar occupies a strategically important space which will ensure its relevance to some of the 21st century’s most significant questions, including those surrounding trade routes, energy security, and the competing geopolitical ambitions of Asia’s great powers. Exciting and important changes are underway in Myanmar. After decades of isolation under military governments, the country is taking convincing steps toward democratization. The junta relinquished much of its power in 2010. In 2011, the unpopular Myitsone hydroelectric project was suspended, suggesting a new sensitivity to public opinion. Beginning that year, a nominally civilian government led by Thein Sein (a former Tatmadaw general) embarked on a series of major political and economic reforms. These culminated in the relatively open 2015 elections, in which the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD)—the party of Nobel Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi—won overwhelming majorities of both houses of parliament. In March 2016, parliament elected Htin Kyaw as the country’s first civilian president in half a century. What explains Myanmar’s relatively rapid transition from authoritarian pariah to fragile democracy? Perhaps international pressure forced the hand of the regime; then again, the West imposed sanctions on Myanmar for years before the military’s grip on power began to loosen. Lee Jones argues that the junta simply liberalized when its objectives were achieved.
Topic:: International Affairs, Military Affairs, Elections, Democracy, Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:: Asia and Myanmar

739. The Autocratic Trust Bias: Politically Sensitive Survey Items and Self-censorship

Author:: Marcus Tannenberg
Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: Because of a perceived risk of repressive action, some survey questions are likely sensitive in more autocratic countries while less so in more democratic countries. Yet survey data on potentially sensitive topics are frequently used in comparative research despite concerns about comparability. In a novel approach to examining the comparability of politically sensitive questions, I employ a multilevel analysis with more than 140,000 respondents in 36 African countries to test for systematic bias when survey respondents believe (fear) that the government, rather than an independent research institute, has commissioned the survey. The findings indicate that fear of the government induces a substantial and significant bias on questions regarding the citizen-state relationship in more autocratic countries, but not in more democratic countries. Moreover, respondents who think the government commissioned the survey do not answer differently on innocuous, apolitical questions than respondents who believe the survey to be independent, regardless of regime type. This has practical implications for the comparative use of survey data.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Democracy, Research, Domestic Politics, and Survey
Political Geography:: Africa

740. Public Trust in Elections: The Role of Media Freedom and Election Management Autonomy

Author:: Nicholas Kerr and Anna Lührmann
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: As multiparty elections have become a global norm, scholars and policy experts regard public trust in elections as vital for regime legitimacy. However, very few cross-national studies have examined the consequences of electoral manipulation, including the manipulation of election administration and the media, on citizens’ trust in elections. This paper addresses this gap by exploring how autonomy of election management bodies (EMBs) and media freedom individually and conjointly shape citizens’ trust in elections. Citizens are more likely to express confidence in elections when EMBs display de facto autonomy and less likely to do so when mass media disseminate information independent of government control. Additionally, we suggest that EMB autonomy may not have a positive effect on public trust in elections if media freedom is low. Empirical findings based on recent survey data on public trust in elections in 47 countries and expert data on de facto EMB autonomy and media freedom support our hypotheses.
Topic:: Public Opinion, Elections, Democracy, and Media
Political Geography:: Africa

741. Still no Alternative? Popular Views of the Opposition in Southern Africa’s One-Party Dominant Regimes

Author:: Rorisang Lekalake
Publication Date:: 02-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: Following decades of authoritarian rule, multiparty democracy re-emerged in a “wave” of democratization in sub-Saharan Africa during the early 1990s. Twenty-nine countries in the region held founding elections – first competitive elections after an authoritarian period – between 1989 and 1994, of which 16 led to full democratic transitions (Bratton, 1997). Notable successes include Namibia (1989), Cape Verde (1991), Ghana (1992), and South Africa (1994), which a generation later are ranked among Africa’s politically “free” countries (Freedom House, 2016). While this period was initially classified as part of Huntington’s (1991) “third wave” of democratization, some political scientists consider it part of a distinct “fourth wave” of general regime change because most of these political openings did not result in full democratic transitions (see McFaul, 2002). Today, African political regimes vary widely, from the liberal democracies cited above to repressive autocracies (Diamond, 2015). Given the importance of party competition to a healthy democracy, a major criticism of African political regimes concerns their relatively few electoral alternations. Although the number of political alternations in sub-Saharan Africa increased from three in 1961-1989 to 39 in 1990-2012, the latter number represents only 23% of election results during this period (Carbone, 2013). Even among multiparty democracies, many African countries have yet to experience a single peaceful alternation of power.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Democracy, Political Parties, Opposition, and Partisanship
Political Geography:: Africa

742. Beyond the Card Reader: Elections Rigging as an Emerging National Security Threat in Nigeria

Author:: Ufo Okeke Uzodike and Hakeem Onapajo
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: African Heritage Institution (AfriHeritage)
Abstract:: This paper provides an evaluation of the existing technological strategies in the Nigerian electoral process with a view to ascertain their reputed efficacy for solving the problem of electoral malpractices in the country. Are the devices really fit for purpose? Will they address the accreditation problems and prevent multiple voting and other forms of elections rigging and malpractices? Is Nigeria technically ready and able to manage effectively electronic devices that have the potential of being used to unleash massive electoral fraud that could completely undermine peaceful coexistence within its fragile and sensitive electoral context? It then provides policy recommendations on advancing the measures to improve the credibility of elections in Nigeria.
Topic:: Corruption, Governance, Developing World, Elections, Democracy, and Accountability
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

743. Separatist Agitations in Nigeria: War versus Peace Journalism

Author:: Chijioke Odii and Maxwell M. Ngene
Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: African Heritage Institution (AfriHeritage)
Abstract:: The mass media are veritable tools for information dissemination, surveillance and correlation. Conflict reporting is one of the delicate areas of media practice. The type of agenda the media set on a conflict can either fuel or quell the crisis. Warring parties take their grievances to the media, with words as lethal as ballistic missiles. The Nigerian media, having been divided along ethnic lines since the colonial era, report separatist agitations with ethnic lens. With the trend, peace journalism, an emerging form of journalism that creates conducive environment for peaceful resolution of conflicts, seems elusive in Nigeria. This paper examined how the Nigerian media reported Biafra and Boko Haram, and how peace journalism approach can be adopted to improve media performance in this regard. Using desk review, descriptive survey, content analysis and personal interview methods, the study found that the Nigerian media adopted war journalism approach in reporting Biafra agitation and Boko Haram, amidst influencing factors. The paper recommends the adoption of peace journalism approach by the Nigerian mass media, to be relevant in finding lasting solutions to the conflicts; integration of Nigerian media into the national security framework and domestication of Freedom of Information Act in States of Nigeria.
Topic:: International Relations, Terrorism, Democracy, Media, Journalism, Separatism, Peace, and Boko Haram
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

744. Neopatrimonialism and Democracy: An Empirical Investigation of Africa's Political Regimes

Author:: Rachel Sigman and Staffan I. Lindberg
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem)
Abstract:: One of the most common adjectives used to describe democracy in sub-Saharan Africa is "neopatrimonial". Characterized by strong executives, pervasive clientelism and use of state resources for political legitimation (Bratton and van de Walle 1997), neopatrimonial democracy has been (controversially) associated with a range of (mostly undesirable) social, political and economic outcomes. This paper offers an empirical assessment of neopatrimonialism in Africa's political regimes. We show that, contrary to conventional wisdom, African regimes vary both quantitatively and qualitatively in their embodiment of neopatrimonial rule. Moreover, we find no clear evidence indicating that neopatrimonialism necessarily impedes the advancement or survival of democracy
Topic:: Democracy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

745. The United States and the European Union: Essential Partners in a Turbulent World

Author:: Anthony Luzzatto Gardner
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Ambassadors Review
Abstract:: Four years ago the European Union won the Nobel Peace Prize for the “over six decades [in which it has] contributed to the advancement of peace and reconciliation, democracy, and human rights in Europe.” How quickly the mood has changed. While it has become fashionable to charge that the European Union is on the verge of collapse in the face of dire current challenges, rumors of the European Union’s demise would appear premature. The successes achieved in 2015, as well as the potential future areas of good news, are frequently underappreciated. The United States is firmly committed to investing in its relationship with the European Union. This is a partnership that delivers, as it will bring dividends to both the United States and the European Union for the long term.
Topic:: Peacekeeping, Democracy, Europe, and Europe Union
Political Geography:: Europe, United States of America, and European Union

746. How corruption shapes the relationship between democracy and electrification

Author:: Frida Boräng, Sverker Jagers, and Marina Povitkina
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Quality of Government Institute, University of Gothenburg,
Abstract:: One of the central questions in research on the drivers behind public good provision is how political regimes and institutions impact the provision of public goods. Previous research within this field has shown that democratic history is positively related to public good provision, including the universal provision of reliable electricity. In this paper, we elaborate on these findings by investigat ing how corruption interacts with democratic history in shaping electricity provision. It is argued that since corruption can shape the implementation process of public policies as well as the policy choices, high levels of corruption are likely to limit the positive effect of democratic experience. Following Min (2015), we measure electricity provision by the share of population living in unlit areas. We find that democratic history leads to higher electrification rates only when corruption is relatively low. In high-corrupt contexts, however, the positive effect of democratic history is absent.
Topic:: Corruption, Democracy, and Political and institutional effectiveness
Political Geography:: Global Focus

747. Corruption, Gender Equality and Feminist Strategies

Author:: Bo Rothstein
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Quality of Government Institute, University of Gothenburg,
Abstract:: The following arguments are presented. 1) Corruption in its various forms is a serious social ill. 2) Democracy is not a safe cure against corruption. 3) Increased gender equality seems to be one important factor behind getting corruption under control. 4) Impartiality in the exercise of public power, not least, when it “translates” into meritocratic recruitment and promotion in the public administration, has a powerful effect on lowering corruption. 5) While some aspects of impartiality are central for gender equality, research results are mixed. Some show that impartial principles promotes gender equality, others show that gender bias exists also in many processes designed to be impartial. Going from these results to policy recommendation is thus fraught with many difficulties. One is how to handle problems of legitimacy in the implementation process for various forms of preferential treatment of discriminated groups. Since these problems are impossible to handle, we may be in for a “Churchillian” argument. Like representative democracy, meritocracy may be a far from ideal solution for lowering corruption and thereby promoting human well-being, but it may be the least bad of existing alternatives.
Topic:: Corruption, Gender Issues, and Democracy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

748. Suicide by Competition? Authoritarian Institutional Adaptation and Regime Fragility

Author:: Michael Bernhard, Amanda B Edgell, and Staffan I. Lindberg
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem)
Abstract:: While it is clear that contemporary authoritarian incumbents use democratic emulation as a strategy in the hopes of stabilizing and extending their tenure in power, this does not mean it is always effective. Indeed, an extant literature presents strong evidence that the opening of the pursuit of power to electoral competition can make authoritarianism vulnerable. Unless it is mediated by other factors, democratic emulation by authoritarian incumbents cannot simultaneously both stabilize their rule and make it more vulnerable to democratic transitions. These two literatures leave us with a set of contradictory generalizations. Some scholars argue that reiterated multiparty competitive elections present a gradual path from authoritarianism to democracy. Can they at the same time be a source of authoritarian stability? In this paper we seek to resolve this paradox by employing a unique combination of event history modeling to assess how experiences with multiparty elections influence patterns of authoritarian survival and transition in 108 countries from 1946-2010. Our results suggest that while authoritarian regimes face increasing odds of failure during the first three iterated multiparty and competitive election cycles, subsequent iterated cycles are far less dangerous to their survival. Given that few authoritarian regimes survive past three elections, these findings should be seen as more supportive of the democratization by elections thesis than democratic emulation as a way to enhance authoritarian survival.
Topic:: Authoritarianism and Democracy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

749. “Gimme Shelter”: The Role of Democracy and Institutional Quality in Disaster Preparedness

Author:: Tove Ahlbom and Marina Povitkina
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem)
Abstract:: Natural disasters cause suffering for millions of people around the globe every year and as climate change unfolds the likelihood of natural catastrophes is increasing. While weather shocks, such as earthquakes, tornadoes, and floods are beyond our control, a governments’ capacity to protect populations largely determines the degree of human suffering in disasters. Democracies, with freedom of speech, broad public participation and representation, are believed to protect their populations better than non-democratic regimes. However, democratic institutions are insufficient for securing protection from disasters in contexts of corruption, poor planning and public administration incompetence. We argue that the effect of democracy on the extent of human suffering in disasters is contingent on the ability of governments to implement their tasks or the quality of implementing institutions. We test this interaction hypothesis using time series cross-sectional data from the Varieties of Democracy project, the Quality of Government dataset and data from the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. The results show that more democracy is associated with fewer people being affected by natural disasters only in settings where institutional quality is high. When institutional quality is low, more people seem to suffer in democracies than in authoritarian states.
Topic:: Disaster Relief, Authoritarianism, and Democracy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

750. Democracy, Democratization, and Civil War

Author:: Suthan Krishnarajan, Jørgen Møller, Lasse Lykke Rørbæk, and Svend-Erik Skaaning
Publication Date:: 08-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem)
Abstract:: An influential body of scholarship has associated both democracy and democratization with civil war. Important findings include the so-called inverted U-shaped relationship between democracy-levels and civil war onset and that propensity for democratic openings to spark internal violence. However, most of these findings have been challenged, particularly by scholars pointing to problems with the aggregate nature of the analyses and the data sources used. Against this background, we enlist new, fine-grained data from the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project. We discuss how the new data can be used to disaggregate regime variables in order to better understand the causal dynamics that link the regime form and regime change to civil war onset, if any. Guided by these considerations, we use the new data to reassess the ‘inverted U-curve’. Our analysis shows that this relationship is driven by ‘liberal’ aspects of democracy such as freedom of assembly and freedom of speech rather than by the ‘electoral core’ of democracy. The relationship between clean elections and civil war onset is approximately linearly decreasing, and at the indicator level of the clean elections attribute we find several different patterns.
Topic:: Civil War, Democratization, and Democracy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

751. Sequential Requisites Analysis: A New Method for Analyzing Sequential Relationships in Ordinal Data

Author:: Patrik Lindenfors, Joshua Krusell, and Staffan I. Lindberg
Publication Date:: 08-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem)
Abstract:: This paper presents a new method inspired by evolutionary biology for analyzing longer sequences of requisites for the emergence of particular outcome variables across numerous combinations of ordinal variables in social science analysis. The approach involves repeated pairwise investigations of states in a set of variables and identifying what states in the variables that occur before states in all other variables. We illustrate the proposed method by analyzing a set of variables from version 6 of the V-Dem dataset (Coppedge et al. 2015a, b). With a large set of indicators measured over many years, the method makes it possible to explore long, complex sequences across many variables in quantitative datasets. This affords an opportunity, for example, to disentangle the sequential requisites of failing and successful sequences in democratization. For policy purposes this is instrumental: Which components of democracy are most exogenous and least endogenous and therefore the ideal targets for democracy promotion at different stages?
Topic:: Democracy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

752. Boulevard of Broken Dreams: The “Street” and Politics in DR Congo

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Demonstrations in Kinshasa, capital of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), turned violent on 19 September 2016, when the Independent Electoral Commission (CENI) should have launched the constitutionally-required presidential election process. Protests were expected as a political dialogue launched on 1 September had failed to agree on what to do about the delay. This has accentuated the risk of violent popular anger in urban centres and of a heavy-handed security response. A risk also remains that political parties, including the ruling majority coalition (henceforth “the majority”) and the opposition that looks to the street to force President Joseph Kabi- la to step down, will seek to manipulate that anger. Depending on loosely organised popular revolts to force political change is a tactic that could spiral out of control. To prevent more violence, Congo’s partners need to use diplomatic and financial tools to focus the actors, particularly the majority, on the need to move rapidly to credible elections. They also need to use their leverage and public positions to minimise violence while the political blockage continues.
Topic:: Political Violence, Democratization, Elections, Democracy, and Political and institutional effectiveness
Political Geography:: Democratic Republic of the Congo

753. Kyrgyzstan: State Fragility and Radicalisation

Author:: Crisis Group Europe and Central Asia
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Kyrgyzstan models itself as Central Asia’s only parliamentary democracy, but multiple challenges threaten its stability. Divided ethnically between Kyrgyz and Uzbeks and geographically north and south, the state is deeply corrupt and fails to deliver basic services, in particular justice and law enforcement. Its political institutions are under stress: the October 2015 parliamentary elections had a veneer of respectability but were undermined by systematic graft at the party and administrative level, and presidential elections will test state cohesion in 2017. The 30 August suicide car bomb attack on the Chinese embassy in Bishkek underscored Kyrgyzstan’s security vulnerabilities. There is need to prevent and counter the threat of growing radicalisation by bolstering the credibility of its institutions and adopting a more tolerant attitude toward non-violent Islamists.
Topic:: Corruption, Radicalization, Democracy, and Political stability
Political Geography:: Central Asia and Kyrgyzstan

754. Presidential elections in Moldova: A sad end to a once promising story

Author:: Ryhor Nizhnikau
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Moldova’s presidential elections offer no hope for change in a country run by a destructive and shortsighted elite. Igor Dodon won the elections, but the main victor in 2016 is the oligarch Vlad Plahotniuc, who has monopolized power in Moldova.
Topic:: Power Politics, Political Power Sharing, Elections, and Democracy
Political Geography:: Moldova and Eastern Europe

755. The Role of the European Parliament: Between External and Internal Challenges

Author:: Tuomas Iso-Markku
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: As a result of the Spitzenkandidaten process, the relationship between the European Parliament and the European Commission – and particularly their leaders – has strengthened. This inter- institutional connection also has a party-political dimension, being intrinsically linked to the emergence of a ‘grand coalition’ between the two biggest groups of the EP. However, in an EU beset by crises, the political agenda is firmly under the control of the member states and the European Council, which makes it difficult for the EP to take advantage of its closer relationship with the Commission, as the latter acts very cautiously.
Topic:: International Organization, International Affairs, Democracy, and Europe Union
Political Geography:: Europe

756. Election Hacking in Democracies: The example of the U.S. 2016 elections

Author:: Mika Aaltola and Mariita Mattiisen
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The US, as a highly digitalized state, depends on different cyber platforms for election campaigning, political discussions, forming popular opinions, and – in some cases – the voting process itself. Geopolitically motivated election hacking can aim to influence the direction of foreign policy debates, to promote/demote candidate(s), and to instigate disruptions, suspicions, and distrust towards the election process or the democratic system. The strategic aim to lower democratic appeal and increase the attraction of autocratic "stability”. A state sponsor of hacking can demonstrate that it has sophisticated cyber capabilities, thereby promoting its own major power standing. Even if its efforts raise suspicions, it gains visibility, as its efforts are discussed in the media and it manages to insert itself into the election discussions. The state sponsor can subtly promote the images of its own type of political system as being comparatively more resilient and stable than the US democratic system. The relative success of the election hacking targeting the US might motivate scaling up the intensity and scope of similar operations in future democratic elections. At a minimum, the election hacking incidents point to a scenario that has to be taken seriously.
Topic:: International Relations, Corruption, International Affairs, Elections, and Democracy
Political Geography:: America

757. A Radical Defence For Democracy: Allow Space for Anti-Democatic Speech.

Author:: Tobias Gemmerli
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: In the confrontation with radicalism and political violence, democratic freedoms are often viewed as a problem. Freedom of expression is viewed to encourage the spread of radical ideas and freedom of congregation, the formation of radical groups and communities. However, these democratic freedoms can also be part of the solution. The success criteria for an effective prevention policy, is the absence of political violence and crime, as well as increased democratic participation. A new policy brief by Tobias Gemmerli, argues for a more democratic approach to those who challenge democracy. Democratic freedoms can generate public debate, about the allegations and utopian ideas put forward by radical and anti-democratic movements. Democratic freedoms can beckon these movements out into public space and uncover the counter-cultural modus operandi. The brief therefore recommends that we include real political disagreement and support initiatives, which make space for critical societal debate. We should take radical opinions, frustrations, and criticisms seriously, make more space for legal radical expression, and focus on combatting unlawful actions. Finally, we should address the dilemmas and compromises that are part of modern foreign and security policy.
Topic:: Radicalization and Democracy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

758. Majority of Americans- Except for Republicans- Back Congressional Inquiry: Survey Shows 30 Year Low for Russian Favourability

Author:: Dina Smeltz, Craig Kafura, and Lily Wojtowicz
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: High-profile Republican stalwarts John McCain and Lindsay Graham have contradicted President-elect Donald Trump’s dismissal of CIA conclusions that Russia interfered in the US presidential election. The two senators issued a statement along with Democrats Jack Reed and Charles Schumer calling for a special committee to investigate the Russian cyberattacks. In a joint statement issued December 11, the senators warned that “this cannot become a partisan issue” because Russian interference in the election “should alarm every American.” But among the American public, there is a partisan split on whether to investigate further, and self-described Republicans seem to be taking their cues from Trump rather than the senators. A just-completed Chicago Council Survey conducted over the past weekend (December 16-18) finds that a narrow majority of Republicans oppose a congressional inquiry (51%). By contrast, majorities of Democrats (85%) and Independents (64%) – and two thirds of the overall public – favor an investigation.
Topic:: Corruption, Elections, Democracy, and Post Truth Politics
Political Geography:: America

759. Beyond Trump: Populism on the Rise

Author:: Alberto Martinelli
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: Recent political events – from Trump’s election to the outcome of the Brexit Referendum - have somehow caught the world by surprise, and are contributing to a growing sense of concern or even alarm about the future of the Western world and, particularly, Western democracies as we know them. When looking at the political landscape in Europe, populism looks like an unprecedented game-changer. Populist parties are in power in Poland and Hungary, they are in the coalition governments in Switzerland and Finland, top the polls in France and the Netherlands, and their support is at record highs in Sweden. Not to mention the recent rise of Alternative für Deutschland in Germany and the successful story of Syriza, Podemos and of the Five Stars Movement in Southern Europe. The volume explores the rise of populism in Europe and the US by analyzing its root causes and the rationale behind its success. It also draws some policy recommendations to tackle the populist challenge.
Topic:: Democracy, Political stability, and Populism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

760. Back to Basics: Re-affirming the Rule of Law in the Western Balkans

Author:: Bojan Elek, Milena Milosevic, and Stevo Muk
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: Evidence shows that progress in democracy and rule of law reforms in the region, albeit different across countries, is slow. Even when it has been achieved, progress has generally been more technical rather than directly focusing on politically sensitive issues.
Topic:: Political Theory, Law, and Democracy
Political Geography:: Balkans

761. Afghanistan’s Age of Transformation

Author:: Hamdullah Mohib
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Ambassadors Review
Institution:: Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:: The Afghanistan of today would surprise most outsiders, even those who closely follow developments in the country. We are often wrongly branded as a failing state with a struggling government whose young people are fleeing en masse for Europe and whose military has lost control of the security situation. While anecdotal evidence can always be found to lend isolated support to such claims, this sweeping characterization offers a distorted picture of reality. Afghans have always valued and cherished their freedom and sovereignty, as evidenced by our years of fighting off foreign and domestic enemies who sought to take both. Now we are reaching for new goals: freedom from dependence on foreign aid, freedom from corruption, freedom from outdated thinking that justifies the oppression of half our population, and freedom from sclerotic bureaucracy that prevents everything from citizens’ access to justice to the smooth functioning of a free market. Afghans overwhelmingly want a modern, sustainable, and self-reliant country whose government serves and is accountable to its people. Yes, the past 15 years have seen war, but they have also produced remarkable growth. Afghan society is thriving, which is a testament to the incredible resilience of the Afghan people. You might be familiar with the progress Afghanistan has made in the areas of education and on women’s rights, but there have also been advances in health, infrastructure, in media and telecommunication, and in sports and culture. 2001 to 2016 has been a time of hardship and sacrifice, but also one of innovation and hope. Today, 25 percent of our cabinet ministers are women, and there are scores of female deputy ministers, ambassadors, district governors, members of parliament, and civil servants. Afghan telecommunication companies cover some 90 percent of the population, which has an estimated 20 million cell phone users. Our media sector is thriving and can rightly be called the freest in the region. When President Ashraf Ghani—a former World Bank economist with an expertise in the causes of and solutions for fragile states—and CEO Abdullah Abdullah led the National Unity Government to power less than two years ago, their first priority was to diagnose the nature and size of the myriad problems facing the country. Then President Ghani designed a strategic roadmap of reforms to take Afghanistan forward. When that plan, “Realizing Self Reliance,” was presented in November 2014 to Afghanistan’s partners, funders, and allies, it was enthusiastically endorsed. Today, Afghanistan is 18 months into an era of unprecedented, sweeping changes—an era President Ghani has named “the transformation decade.” The government is taking innovative approaches to solving Afghanistan’s unique problems, as seen in its national priority programs such as the Citizen’s Charter and the Economic Empowerment Plan for Rural Women. There are early, promising results everywhere you look. Infrastructure projects for roads, rail, and electric and fiber optic connectivity are underway. Public finance has been improved through aggressive anti-corruption measures, with internal revenue increasing by a record breaking 22 percent in 2015. The customs and revenue departments, where corrupt practices have traditionally thrived, have undergone sweeping changes that have sent revenues to historic highs. Our new Procurement Commission reviews all contracts and has saved hundreds of millions of dollars for the government. We are rediscovering and reinvesting in the revival of our ancient past with the launch of the new cultural heritage trust fund this year. Last November, Afghanistan was accepted as a member of the World Trade Organization and is now taking strong steps to improve its ranking in the World Bank’s Doing Business Indicators, such as a new office in the Ministry of Commerce and Industries to monitor how reforms to reduce obstacles for business are being implemented on the ground, and streamline licensing procedures. The “Jobs for Peace” program that took effect late last year in 12 provinces is already providing food security for nearly 100,000 families by creating 5.5 million labor days. Eventually, it will cover all 34 provinces of Afghanistan, and is already performing above expectations. Highlights of major regional economic development deals that have been closed in the last 18 months include the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline, which will bring Afghanistan thousands of jobs and $400 million annually, and the four-nation Central Asia-South Asia Electricity Transmission and Trade Project (CASA 1000). This progress is all the more remarkable when you consider that in the short span of just one year—between the end of 2013 and the end of 2014—Afghanistan underwent cataclysmic changes. Following our first peaceful democratic transition of power in history, we installed an untested new form of government led by former rivals who agreed to come together for the benefit of the country, and our brave national security forces assumed full responsibility for national security despite lacking close air support, available medevac, and other essential capabilities. We also managed to make these gains against some steep odds that continue to work against us. Afghanistan’s economy has yet to recover from the crisis caused by the departure of more than 600,000 foreign military personnel and contractors, which sent revenue plunging and unemployment soaring to 40 percent. We have struggled to implement sweeping governance reforms and address urgent citizen needs while being constrained by budget austerity measures. And we continue to fight a war against two enemies simultaneously, the Taliban and Daesh. But despite the grim headlines that emphasize enemy attacks, our security forces have exceeded expectations, risking and losing their lives in a fight we did not ask for against invading militant groups who threaten not just Afghanistan, but the region and rest of the world. Throughout our journey toward self-reliance, a key element of our continued success will be the strength and endurance of key partnerships, particularly with the United States. Our international partners, including the United States and NATO, have pledged to maintain a significant troop level to train, assist, and advise our security forces at least through 2017. This is invaluable support because it gives the government the breathing room it needs to solve urgent problems that, when remedied, will mean a more stable country. The Afghan people and government are grateful for the continued friendship of the United States and for the fact that both our nations realize that we are united against a shared threat. We honor everyone who has made the ultimate sacrifice in this fight. A captain in the United States Navy who served with the British Royal Marines in Afghanistan once told me that the greatest show of appreciation we can make for that sacrifice is to protect and build on the progress and freedoms for which so many troops fought, died, and were wounded. And so we are. Fiscal independence is a top priority. We need to create more employment opportunities for Afghans so they can be prosperous inside the country, instead of risking their lives trying to find better lives that are not likely to materialize in Europe. Despite gains in women’s participation in all facets of society, it is completely unacceptable that many women still face the threat of violence and are discriminated against with impunity. More girls need to be in school, laying the foundation to pursue their dreams later in life. Peace is urgently needed, but we acknowledge that the process of achieving sustainable security is long, complex, and requires much more than just reconciliation with insurgent groups. Our government institutions need much more reform so that they are efficient, effective, and transparently in service to the Afghan people. Fortunately, we have a formidable engine for our momentum: Afghanistan’s massive, energetic youth population. Three-quarters of Afghans are under the age of 35, and although this generation has known only war and violence their whole lives, they are not cynical and pessimistic. Rather, they are determined to break with the past and change Afghanistan’s story. They are educated, ambitious, and they want peace and prosperity for themselves and their families. In business, education, government, civil society, and culture, they are pushing boundaries of “what is” and leading us forward to “what can be.” Afghanistan has only just started its transformation. The world should not doubt that we are determined to finish it.
Topic:: Communications, Fragile/Failed State, Governance, Democracy, and Modernization
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, and Middle East

762. Foreign Policy Analysis in Latin American democracies: the case for a research protocol

Author:: Dawisson Belém Lopes, Carlos Aurélio Pimenta de Faria, and Manoel Santos
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: In this article we propose an alternative theoretical path to study contemporary Latin American foreign policies, evoking the notion of 'public policy cycle' to explain how democratic regimes in the region have been able to expand their autonomy over time. For that, we will first identify the sources of a given country's foreign policy, both at home and abroad, as well as its decision-making and implementation mechanisms. With regard to methodology, by replacing sheer deductivism for some inductivism, this approach also innovates in allowing more rigorous comparative politics and, consequently, new general theories about Latin American politics and policies.
Topic:: Foreign Policy and Democracy
Political Geography:: Latin America

763. Democratization Processes and Political Competition in 1990’s Africa: The Cases of Mozambique and Zambia

Author:: Fidel Terenciano, Maria Do Socorro Souza Braga, and Carlos Augusto da Silva Souza
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: Democracy and democratization must be understood within its scope, considering the singularities and the contextual aspects of each society. And the democracies of the third wave also contemplate singularities that cannot be measured by the rubble of other contexts. The pretension of the present research is to study democracy and democratization in Mozambique and Zambia considering two elements: the electoral system, its singularities and then the formation and the shape of the party system with its correspondent nuances. Because it is important to analyze the effect of one in relation with the other, we focus our analysis in two aspects: first, the political and electoral competition in both countries, emphasizing to the party fluctuations in the Parliament, and secondly we analyze the electoral competition in the perspective of power alternance, which constitutes one of the dimensions to measure the level of stability of democracies.
Topic:: Democratization, Politics, History, and Democracy
Political Geography:: Africa, Mozambique, and Zambia

764. Role of Media in Strengthening Democracy in Pakistan: Journalists’ Perception

Author:: Mian Ahmad Hanan, Noshina Saleem, Aniqa Ali, and Sahifa Mukhtar
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The study analyzes the perception of Journalists’ regarding role of Pakistani media in strengthening democracy. It was also aimed to identify the factors which undermined the role of media in strengthening democracy. In this study survey was conducted from 82 print and electronic media journalists of Pakistan. For qualitative purpose 5 senior journalists associated with print and electronic media of Pakistan were interviewed to have insights in the role of media in strengthening democracy in the country. This study concludes that Pakistani media is not playing a significant role in strengthening democracy in the country. It also reveals that Journalists’ are satisfied with media’s role in creating awareness and providing information to public and act as a watchdog to government policies. In addition, majority respondents are not pleased with media’s role as an agenda setter for upholding the principles of democracy and offering as civic forum for the people of Pakistan. Moreover, it also indicates that there is no difference between the perception of senior and junior journalists’ regarding media’s role in strengthening democracy in Pakistan. In addition study also reveals that there is no difference found between the senior and juniors, and high and low salaried journalists’ regarding ownership influence on their work routines and professionalism. Therefore, this study busted the myth that the senior and high salaried journalists’ are less influenced by the ownership.
Topic:: Democracy, Media, Freedom of Expression, and Journalism
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, and Punjab

765. Statement on the Democratic National Committee Hack

Author:: Aspen Institute
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: The Aspen Institute Homeland Security Group’s statement on the Democratic National Committee Hack.
Topic:: International Affairs and Democracy
Political Geography:: America

766. Fragile States Index 2016 – Annual Report

Author:: J. J. Messner and Nate Haken
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Fund for Peace
Abstract:: The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
Topic:: Democracy, Refugee Crisis, Fragile States, Political stability, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, and Global Focus

767. Use of Social Media and Digital Technology from the Perspective of Citizen Engagement and Democratic Participation in the Works of Centre for Bhutan Studies & GNH Studies: A Positioning Paper

Author:: Dendup Chophel
Publication Date:: 02-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Bhutan Studies
Institution:: Centre for Bhutan & GNH Studies (CBS)
Abstract:: Promotion of socio-economic and political dialogue, and engagement of citizens in the process of governance are essential features of a democracy. Public think tank organizations have a key role to play in this regard and thus, as the only state research organization, the Centre for Bhutan Studies & GNH Research (CBS) should be at the forefront of innovations in engaging with the public through policy dialogue by exploring various communication forums like social media. According to the Act for the Centre for Bhutan Studies (2001) by which it was established, the CBS is an autonomous government organization charged with conducting multi-disciplinary research into the history, culture, economy and policy of the country among others. It is mandated with promoting the culture of scholarship and public education through dissemination of timely and quality scholarly research findings. It is also aimed at influencing public policy by providing state institutions with informed and researched inputs. For these purposes, the CBS not only conducts independent research works, the results of which are published as scholarly books, but also organizes national and international conferences, public talks, promote collaboration with global research institutions and represents the country in various scholarly international forums to present the country’s policy positioning. For example, in just the area of media and governance, the CBS has organized various conferences like the major international conference on “Media and Public Culture in Bhutan” (June 2006) and “Deepening and Sustaining Democracy in Asia” (October 2009).
Topic:: Science and Technology, Governance, Democracy, Social Media, and Participation
Political Geography:: South Asia and Bhutan

768. The Role of Deliberative Mini-Publics in the Quest for Gross National Happiness in Bhutan

Author:: Gerard W. Horgan
Publication Date:: 02-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Bhutan Studies
Institution:: Centre for Bhutan & GNH Studies (CBS)
Abstract:: Political participation is recognized as a component of Bhutan’s multidimensional development framework, ‘Gross National Happiness’ (GNH). In recent years, Bhutan has instituted a conventional system of liberal democratic, representative democracy. However, this system has supplanted an earlier, indigenous system of village-based participatory democracy. This paper builds on the premise that, to be true to the goal of good governance encapsulated in GNH, Bhutan needs to embrace a deeper level of political participation than that embodied by representative democracy. The deficits of the new representative system are identified via the utilization of Lijphart’s majoritarian versus consensual democratic framework. It is suggested that a form of ‘deliberative polling’ should be institutionalized as part of the parliamentary policy-making process, as a complement to the existing representative system.
Topic:: Democracy, Political Participation, Policymaking, and Gross National Happiness (GNH)
Political Geography:: South Asia and Bhutan

769. Populism on the rise. Democracies under challenge?

Author:: Alberto Martinelli
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: Donald Trump’s Republican presidential nomination and the Brexit have shocked and somehow caught by surprise the entire world. A growing sense of concern or even alarm is now spreading across Western countries and is putting traditional democratic processes to the test. In particular, when looking at the political landscape in Europe, populism may turn out to be an unprecedented game-changer. Populists parties came to power in Poland and Hungary, they are in coalition governments in Switzerland and Finland, top the polls in France and the Netherlands, and their support is at record highs in Sweden. Not to mention the recent rise of Alternative für Deutschland in Germany and the successful story of Syriza, Podemos and of the FSM in Southern Europe. The Report explores the rise of populism in Europe and the US by analyzing its root causes, the rationale behind its success, its impact on traditional political parties and, more broadly, on Western democracies. It also draws some policy recommendations to tackle this widespread challenge.
Topic:: Politics, Democracy, and Populism
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

770. Overlapping Effects of Autocracy and Conflict in Africa

Author:: Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The strong overlap of autocracy and conflict in Africa underscores the strong political dimensions of Africa’s contemporary conflicts.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Democracy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa, North Africa, Central Africa, and Horn of Africa

771. Human Rights before and after the fall of the Berlin Wall

Author:: Günter Nooke
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for the Opening and Development of Latin America (CADAL)
Abstract:: Nowadays we certainly cannot take it for granted that our understanding of human rights is accepted throughout the world. On the contrary, that understanding is much more at risk than it was 20 or 30 years ago. This is all the more true when hardly anyone dares to openly address this issue. But the basic approach is actually quite simple: successful human rights policy is about translating a fantastic idea into reality. This idea applies to everyone, regardless of whether they were born in Germany or Switzerland or in China, Zimbabwe, Cuba or North Korea. The political art of human rights policy consists of placing the individual at the heart of all efforts, while at the same time taking into account traditions, culture and religion. This is often particularly difficult when persuasive arguments are put forward by those who consciously disregard human rights for the sake of shoring up their own power.
Topic:: Human Rights and Democracy
Political Geography:: China, North Korea, Germany, Cuba, Switzerland, and Zimbabwe

772. Dealing with the authoritarian resurgence

Author:: Christopher Walker
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for the Opening and Development of Latin America (CADAL)
Abstract:: A renewed struggle between democracy and authoritarianism has emerged. The decade-long democratic decline reported by Freedom House has been most dramatic within the ranks of already authoritarian regimes, which have become even more repressive. At the same time, the most influential among them— China, Russia, and Iran—have become more internationalist. In doing so, they have found ways to exploit integration and to broaden their influence in the democratic world. Through the development of the antidemocratic toolkit of simulated NGOs, think tanks, election monitors, and news media, the autocrats are actively seeking to undermine democracy from within.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Democracy, Freedom of Expression, Fascism, Dictatorship, and Totalitarianism
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and Iran

773. Civil Society and Regional Powers in a Changing World: The Cases of Brazil and India

Author:: Daniela Vieria Secches and Maria Cristina Andrade Aires
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: A changing world in which global and regional powers rethink their actions and preferences in the international arena is a world where domestic politics increasingly creates a more complex framework for foreign behavior. Many newly emerging powers have just recently adopted a democratic regime, while others are still governed by hard autocracies. Within this context, their civil societies have different channels to express their preferences towards the new world order under formation and their expectations concerning how their states plan to be part of it. This paper will discuss how emerging regional powers behave in this changing world, the possibilities and limits imposed by civil society pressure, or even inaction. The authors wish to address how these systemic changes impact on the channels through which civil society movements voice their platforms for their country international role, considering the degree of democratic institutional consolidation as an intervening variable. As case studies, this theoretical debate will be applied to contemporary Brazil and India.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Civil Society, and Democracy
Political Geography:: India, Asia, Brazil, and South America

774. Democratic Civilian Control over the Security Sector: Comparative Legal Documents

Author:: Philipp H. Fluri and Valentyn Badrack
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Razumkov Centre
Abstract:: This publication provides a broad range of examples of national legislation as well as international conventions and instruments related to the democratic oversight of the security sector. The product is designed for stakeholders’ easy reference, be they civil society, democratic institutions, government or the security sector itself. Examples are supplied from, among others, Bulgaria, Canada, France, Norway, Poland and Switzerland.
Topic:: Security, Democracy, Legislation, and Institutions
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, Canada, Norway, France, Poland, Bulgaria, and Switzerland

775. Democratic Civilian Control and Military Crisis in Ukraine: Legislative Aspects

Author:: Philipp H. Fluri and Valentyn Badrack
Publication Date:: 02-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Razumkov Centre
Abstract:: The events of 2014 underlined key challenges facing the oversight of the security sector in Ukraine. As a result, a series of legal amendments were initiated on a preliminary basis in order to address democratic control and security sector reform issues. Although some of the legislative gaps revealed by the current crisis have been addressed, this publication outlines the need for further measures to repair the system of civilian control over the armed forces.
Topic:: Security, Democracy, Legislation, Institutions, and Civilians
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

776. Anti-Corruption Measures in Ukraine after the Revolution of Dignity: Key Legislative Aspects

Author:: Philipp H. Fluri and Valentyn Badrack
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Razumkov Centre
Abstract:: In October 2014, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine (the Ukrainian Parliament) adopted new legislation on an Anti-Corruption Strategy for 2014-2017, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU), and the National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption (NAPC), as well as anti-corruption amendments to a number of existing laws. Focusing on key legislation, this publication maps the general aspects of the recent legal reforms in Ukraine aimed at preventing and investigating corruption. Intended to improve public service integrity and prevent corruption, the success of the overall anti-corruption measures remains a focus of attention at national and international levels.
Topic:: Security, Corruption, Democracy, Legislation, and Institutions
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, and Global Focus

777. Ethiopia: The 100% Election

Author:: Leonardo R. Arriola and Terrance Lyons
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Democracy
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: Ethiopia’s 2015 elections confirm that the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF)—having won 100 percent of parliamentary seats—has chosen to entrench an authoritarian system. We argue that this total election victory was meant as a signal to party cadres that defection is not tolerated. Our analysis of intra-regime dynamics shows how the EPRDF has responded to the death of Meles Zenawi through greater reliance on trusted party stalwarts for high-level posts. We conclude that growing demands from lower-level party cadres threaten to transform the ruling party from a disciplined national organization into a patronage-based alliance of ethnic factions.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Elections, Democracy, and Rigged Elections
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

778. Burma Votes for Change: The Challenges Ahead

Author:: Igor Blazevic
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Democracy
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy’s sweeping victory in Burma’s November 2015 elections and the military’s acquiescence in allowing the NLD to take the reins of power have justly been described as remarkable and historic milestones. Yet a number of unresolved critical issues still loom. The aspirations of the people of Burma and of the newly elected democratic forces are still seriously constrained by the constitution imposed by the military, by Burman Buddhist nationalism, by entrenched oligarchic interests, and by tough structural conditions. The biggest challenge of all: Burma is a “robustly” plural and deeply divided society. Without political consensus about the nature of the state among key stakeholders, including all significant ethnic and religious groups, the military will not withdraw from politics, the transition to civilian rule will not happen, peace will remain elusive, and Burma’s democratization will stagnate. Burma’s transition can succeed and serve as an example of a “hard-case” country that successfully democratizes despite lacking favorable structural conditions. Yet it is important to understand just how fragile and unsettled the whole process still is.
Topic:: Nationalism, Authoritarianism, Elections, Democracy, and Military Government
Political Geography:: Asia, Burma, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar

779. Latin America’s New Turbulence: Crisis and Integrity in Brazil

Author:: Marcus Andre Melo
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Democracy
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: For Brazil’s young democracy, this might seem to be the worst of times. The country’s once-booming economy has taken a nosedive along with global commodity prices; a monster public-corruption scandal is engulfing much of the political class and infuriating millions of ordinary Brazilians; and a president who barely won reelection only to abandon her basic fiscal-policy approach now teeters on the brink of impeachment and expulsion from office. Yet these storm clouds have a silver lining. For, grave as they are, they have put on vivid display the strength, independence, and public trust enjoyed by the country’s web of judicial and public-accountability institutions and attested to the free and energetic nature of the media in a country that only three decades ago was held under lockdown by a military dictatorship. Politics and the economy are in a crisis, but looking beneath the turmoil we can glimpse the power of the rule of law and see Brazilian constitutional democracy’s institutional resilience and fortitude.
Topic:: Democracy, Economy, State Building, and Dictatorship
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

780. 25 Years After the USSR: What’s Gone Wrong?

Author:: Henry E. Hale
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Democracy
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: A quarter century after the USSR’s breakup, the region it occupied has become more rather than less authoritarian on average. The rise has been neither steep nor steady, however, and the dominant regional pattern has been regime cycling, with movement both toward and away from authoritarianism at different points in time. Key causes are the tenacious pre-Soviet legacy of patronalism, the prevalence of presidentialist constitutions, and strong leadership popularity without the strong Western linkage and leverage that has often mitigated similar authoritarian tendencies in places like Africa and Latin America.
Topic:: Power Politics, Authoritarianism, and Democracy
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, and Latin America

781. The Danger of Deconsolidation: The Democratic Disconnect

Author:: Roberto Stefan Foa and Yascha Mounk
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Democracy
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: The citizens of wealthy, established democracies are less satisfied with their governments than they have been at any time since opinion polling began. Most scholars have interpreted this as a sign of dissatisfaction with particular governments rather than with the political system as a whole. Drawing on recent public opinion data, we suggest that this optimistic interpretation is no longer plausible. Across a wide sample of countries in North America and Western Europe, citizens of mature democracies have become markedly less satisfied with their form of government and surprisingly open to nondemocratic alternatives. A serious democratic disconnect has emerged. If it widens even further, it may begin to challenge the stability of seemingly consolidated democracies.
Topic:: Public Opinion, Democracy, and Political stability
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and Western Europe

782. Iraq’s Year of Rage

Author:: Mieczyslaw P. Boduszynski
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Democracy
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: Iraqis of all ethnic and sectarian groups are fed up with the ineptitude and corruption of their political leaders and the institutions they control. Since 2015, they have turned out in record numbers to protest against their political elite. The protests that unfolded in 2015 and 2016 have highlighted two failings of Iraq’s post-2003 “democratic” order: 1) the entrenchment of a corrupt “partyocracy” that has captured the state and deepened sectarian divisions, and 2) the weakness of state institutions and the absence of the rule of law that have encouraged widespread corruption and fostered broad popular distrust of the post-Saddam Iraqi state.
Topic:: Social Movement, Democracy, Rule of Law, Protests, and Diversity
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

783. The Specter Haunting Europe: The Unraveling of the Post-1989 Order

Author:: Ivan Krastev
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Democracy
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: This article argues that the unraveling of the post–Cold War liberal order is manifested by the West’s declining influence in international politics; the waning attraction of liberal democracy; and the maturing tensions within liberal democratic regimes. This unraveling renders problematic the European project of trying to extend democracy beyond the nation-state—a project that has enhanced the appeal of illiberal democracy, defined by majoritarian regimes in which the majority transforms the state into its own private possession. These regimes have become an answer to the pressures of a world where popular will is the only source of political legitimacy, and global markets are the only source of economic growth. Their rise portends devastating and far-reaching consequences throughout Europe.
Topic:: Democracy, Global Markets, Legitimacy, and Post Cold War
Political Geography:: Europe

784. The Specter Haunting Europe: Distinguishing Liberal Democracy’s Challengers

Author:: Takis S. Pappas
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Democracy
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: This article takes issue with the common practice of uncritically lumping together as “populist” the various and distinct challengers to democracy in contemporary Europe. It disaggregates and then classifies such challengers into three analytically distinct categories: antidemocrats, nativists, and populists. In so doing, the article reveals the geographical distribution of these categories across Europe, and highlights the value of treating each category based on its unique set of symptoms. It further shows that the gravest threat to contemporary liberalism comes from populist rather than from antidemocratic or nativist parties.
Topic:: Democracy, Populism, Liberal Order, Nativism, and Post Cold War
Political Geography:: Europe

785. Public Diplomacy of Western World Countries as a Tool of Democracy Promotion

Author:: Iryna Sukhorolska
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: Public diplomacy is an effective, steadily evolving foreign policy tool used all over the world. In the context of current global trends promoting one's own values and the way of thinking as an objective of public diplomacy is of special interest. Democracy and human rights are among the main values of the Western countries and are promoted by them through a wide range of measures aimed at foreign country's authorities as well as foreign public including different target audiences. This paper addresses the foundations of public diplomacy activity aimed at democracy promotion abroad. It states that the value of democracy is advantageous to public diplomacy of the West and allows it to hold leading positions offering an attractive model of development for the rest of the world. Democratization measures in conditions of the gradual development of democratic institutions as well as in crisis situations are considered.
Topic:: Civil Society, Development, Diplomacy, and Democracy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

786. Barrington Moore’da Siyasal Değişme | Political Change in Barrington Moore

Author:: İrfan Haşlak
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Bilgi
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: Barrington Moore, karşılaştırmalı tarihsel sosyolojinin önemli isimlerinden birsidir. Demokrasinin ve Diktatörlüğün Toplumsal Kökenleri adlı çalışmasıyla belirli toplumların modern dünyaya farklı siyasi yönetim anlayışlarıyla ulaşmasının toplumsal kökenlerini irdelemeye çalışmaktadır. Bu çalışmada Moore’un yöntemi ele alınarak değişik toplumların farklı siyasal yönetim anlayışlarını geliştirmesinin nedenleri üzerinde durulacaktır. | Barrington Moore is a prominent figure in comparative historical sociology. With his work entitled Social Origins of Democracy and Dictatorship, he tries to examine the social origins of certain societies' reaching the modern world with different political systems.. In this study, Moore's method will be discussed and the reasons for different societies to develop different understanding of political management will be emphasized.
Topic:: Politics, Democracy, Fascism, and Dictatorship
Political Geography:: Soviet Union and Global Focus

787. İşyeri Sendika Temsilcileri ve Sosyal Diyalog: Çare mi, Çaresizlik mi? | Union Stewards and Social Dialogue: Remedy or Helplessness?

Author:: Erdem Cam
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Bilgi
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: Bu çalışmada işyerinde sosyal diyaloğu sağlamada önemli görevleri olan işyeri sendika temsilcilerinin sorunları araştırılmıştır. Bu amaçla Türkiye’de faaliyet gösteren iki konfederasyona üye olan sendikalardaki işyeri sendika temsilcileri ile 2012-2017 yılları arasında odak grup mülakat ve derinlemesine mülakat yapılmıştır. Çok farklı işkollarından olan bu temsilcilerin belirtmiş oldukları sorunlar, temsilcilerin işyerinde ortaya çıkan sorunları nasıl çözdükleri hakkında ipuçları vermektedir. Çalışmada temsilcilerin davranışları kuramsal olarak iki ana başlık altında incelenmiştir. Bu başlıklar çatışmacı yaklaşım çerçevesinde işçilerin hakları için mücadele eden temsilciler ile yapısalcı kuram başlığı altında işverenle uzlaşan ve diyaloğu esas alan temsilcilerdir. Bu çalışmanın bulguları sayesinde Türkiye için işyerinde demokratik çalışma ortamının daha iyi nasıl kurulabileceği ve sendikal kararların tabandan karar alıcılara doğru nasıl etki edebileceği yönünde öneriler yapılabilir. | In this study, the problems of union stewards who have important roles in ensuring social dialogue in the workplace were investigated. For this purpose, focus group and in-depth interviews were conducted with workplace union stewards who are the representatives of two labour confederations in Turkey between 2012 and 2017. The problems expressed by these union stewards from many different branches of activity have been given some clues about how the union stewards sort out the problems that arise in the workplace. The behaviours of the workplace union stewards were theoretically examined under two main approaches in this study. These are the representatives who struggle for the rights of workers within the framework of the confrontational approach and representatives who compromise with the employer under the structuralist theory and take dialogue as basis. Thanks to findings of this study, suggestions can be made that how to establish a democratic working environment in the workplace and how trade union decisions can create an impact from shop floor to decision makers in Turkey.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Democracy, and Unions
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

788. Hard Power versus Soft Power or a Balance between the Two?

Author:: Peter Volten
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Many things have changed in Turkey within the last decade, but also in Brussels as to the political practises. This commentary seeks to answer whether Turkey and the EU can find and maintain a sensible balance between toughness and empathy, between considerations of hard power and soft power. Turkey is obviously an essential, regional player both economically and militarily. Geopolitics may not appear high on the agenda of the EU, but the situation in the Middle-East simply could not and cannot be ignored as a geopolitical challenge, one that might beg for acting in concert with Turkey. On the other side, Europe represents an attraction and example based on a long history and struggle for material wealth, technological and scientific progress as well as for the accomplished degree of democracy and the rule of law. More recently, however, EU soft power suffers a number of setbacks. We disown our most basic values of soft power and will lose impact in promoting a just, democratic order in the world. If the EU and its member states fail to recover from this set-back, we risk to fall back in the hard power game, also with potential and aspiring states.
Topic:: Politics, European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, Rule of Law, and Soft Power
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

789. Poland at the Crossroads Between Authoritarianism and Democracy

Author:: Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:: Symbolic ensembles that are often displayed in the public sphere by right-wing populists are “thick” in this sense. They include many inter-locked symbols that – in combination – allow for a narrower range of possible interpretations and thus attract a smaller, in this case right wing leaning group of people. They constitute the symbolic base of Polish thick populism, an exclusionary and polarizing political-cultural formation, that at the moment is supported by well over one third of the Polish population, controls the government, and slowly dismantles Polish liberal democracy.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Democracy, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Poland

790. North Korea in South Korea–Japan relations as a source of mutual security anxiety among democratic societies

Author:: Seung Hyok Lee
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Relations of the Asia-Pacific
Institution:: Japan Association of International Relations
Abstract:: When Kim Dae-jung and Koizumi Junichiro visited Pyongyang in 2000 and 2002, their visits facilitated a perception shift toward North Korea in South Korea and Japan. This was a consequence of the two democratic societies expanding and redefining the acceptable boundaries of their national security identities and principles in a changing regional environment. Although the expansion of societal security discourse did not lead extreme ‘revisionists’ to implement drastic strategic policy transformations in either country, it did provoke a ‘mutual security anxiety’ between the South Korean and Japanese publics, as they felt increasingly uncertain about each other's future security trajectory. This mutual anxiety, in which both countries tend to view each other as potential security risk, while overlooking the existence of moderate democratic citizens on the other side, continues to provide a powerful ideational undertone to the bilateral relationship, which contributes to persistent misunderstanding at various levels.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Democracy
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

791. Germany and the Challenge of Mass Immigration

Author:: Zoltán Eperjesi
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Hiperboreea
Institution:: Balkan History Association
Abstract:: This article gives an insight into the problematic origins of the term multiculturalism, a brief summary of integration of foreigners in Germany by presenting certain debates about incorporation, assimilation and dominant culture in order to ultimately see the critique of the model of multiculturalism.
Topic:: Immigration, Multiculturalism, Democracy, Immigrants, and Pluralism
Political Geography:: Germany

792. Turkey’s Digital Divides

Author:: Max Hoffman
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: Turkey is emblematic of the promise of the digital revolution that is now sweeping through similarly emerging middle-income democracies around the world. Yet its approach to expanding internet penetration is shaped by its own set of political and social conditions. Wider internet access and use could contribute to a more dynamic Turkish economy that is driven by greater online competition and entrepreneurship. Turkey could likewise provide more efficient, responsive government services to more of its citizens by harnessing information and telecommunications technologies. But the efforts to reap these rewards are hindered by wide disparities in internet access and online literacy, as well as by very different customs that divide men and women, the old and the young, and urban and rural citizens. These divides are evident in the nation’s digital disparities and have roots in the country’s recent political history and social norms. At first glance, Turkey’s rapid but uneven economic development over the past several decades—with all of the accompanying social fissures—is akin to the experiences of other developing nations such as Albania, Chile, or Brazil. And Turkey, like other emerging middle-income democracies, is grappling with the need to privatize the internet and communications industries, which are often powerful political players with deep ties to ruling parties and with little interest in fostering serious online competition. But Turkey’s challenge of providing more internet accessibility at more affordable prices—a key step to becoming a full-fledged developed democratic nation and a new member of the European Union—faces obstacles that are particular to Turkey’s political economy. The ruling Justice and Development Party—more commonly referred to by its Turkish acronym, AKP—must calculate the political gains and losses of more widespread internet access, particularly for those conservative working-class rural voters who are the backbone of its political strength.
Topic:: Social Movement, Democracy, Internet, and Digital Revolution
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Asia

793. The U.S. Presidential Election: The View from China

Author:: Zhang Fan
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: American presidential elections have an impact that goes far beyond U.S. national borders. People around the world follow the campaign for the U.S. presidency with great interest, and many feel that they have a stake in the outcome. People in China pay particularly close attention because China, almost more than any other nation, regularly becomes a key topic in U.S. presidential debates. During this particular campaign season, candidates of both major political parties have frequently mentioned China. However, what’s more noteworthy in this election cycle is that the Chinese populous is not focusing solely on how their homeland is bandied about by the candidates, but even more so on the entire American electoral process as a whole. Certainly, some Chinese are tuning in primarily for entertainment value; but many others are trying to figure out exactly what this election will mean not only for the United States but for the entire world—including China. Regardless of what motivates individual Chinese election-watchers, the 2016 U.S. presidential election is popular in China. Zhang Fan, a Visiting Fellow on a Ford Foundation Global Travel and Learning Fund Program exchange, has spent the past five months at the Center for American Progress, studying the U.S. presidential election and Chinese reactions to it. She recently shared her views during a question-and-answer session with Blaine Johnson, China and Asia Policy Research Associate at the Center.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Elections, Democracy, and Election Observation
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

794. The Arab Spring, Dominoes, and Turkey

Author:: Goktug Sonmez
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Bilgi
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: In an era of unexpected shifts in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and the challenges stemmed from these shifting dynamics, the question is whether the new socio-political atmosphere is sustainable in the medium to long-run in spite of politically questionable achievements? In order to address this question, some historical insight along with an elaboration on the concept of “domino theory” could be of some use. Did the “domino effect” of the Arab Spring work in the opposite direction and a “reverse domino effect” turn the picture upside down with authoritarian rulers acquiring power once and for all and eliminating oppositional groups as it is seen from several cases already? From Lenin to Eisenhower, the analogy of “dominoes” and their “fall”, referring to the potential chain reaction following a major political and/or military action / development, found their place in policymaking, and indeed, continued to do so even though direct reference to those terms became less and less popular. However, historical experience implies that despite the popularity of these concepts, dominoes might not fall one after another. Rather, the “next dominoes” can strengthen their position in order to avoid the fate of the last one. Either those regimes would face an irresistible wave of “reverse domino effect” or the fall of some “dominoes” would even help them act more cautiously in order to consolidate what they achieved, one thing is clear; Turkey has the potential and intention to be one of the key players to have an influence over the future and sustainability of the “tectonic shift” we witnessed, better known as “the Arab Spring”. At the same time, unsurprisingly, Turkey is also one of the countries that has been and will be affected by its possible U-turn, too.
Topic:: Social Movement, Popular Revolt, Democracy, and Arab Spring
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, and Syria

795. Do Africans Still Want Democracy?

Author:: Robert Mattes and Michael Bratton
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: Judging by media headlines, democracy appears to be under stress everywhere from leaders like Vladimir Putin in Russia, Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey, and Yoweri Museveni in Uganda. Yet social scientists know there is often a mismatch between what can be gleaned from news reports or social media and real, underlying trends. To take just one example, media attention to wars in Syria and Iraq suggests rising conflict around the world. Yet compared to previous centuries and especially since the end of the Cold War, both international and civil conflicts are at record lows (Human Security Report Project, 2014). A similar contrast exists between media-fueled perceptions and actual trends in global poverty. The common wisdom suggests worsening living conditions on an overpopulated planet, whereas evidence-based indicators demonstrate that, between 1990 and 2010, the global rate of extreme poverty was cut in half (Economist, 2013). Might the same type of discrepancies exist with regard to democracy? Especially in Africa, where many presidents cling to power (as in Cameroon, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Uganda, and Zimbabwe), manipulate elections (as in Burundi, Gabon, and Zambia), or ignore institutions of public accountability (as in South Africa), one might reasonably conclude that democracy in Africa is only a façade erected to please a credulous audience in the rest of the world. Yet this viewpoint would miss the fact that more than half of all Africans today live in functioning multi-party electoral democracies that are demonstrably freer than the military or one-party regimes that previously dominated the continent. At the same time, the post-1990 gains that African countries registered in terms of civil liberties and political rights peaked in 2006, at least according to expert judgments offered by Freedom House.
Topic:: Governance, Public Opinion, Democracy, and Partisanship
Political Geography:: Africa

796. Evaluating Botswana’s Performance on National Vision 2016

Author:: Rorisang Lekalake
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: On 30 September 2016, Botswana will mark its 50th year of independence from the United Kingdom, a significant occasion for both celebration and reflection. An important part of this reflection has focused on Botswana’s transition from National Vision 2016, the blueprint that has guided the country’s development for the past two decades, to National Vision 2036, in tandem with the global move from the United Nations’ Millennium Development Goals to Sustainable Development Goals (Ministry of Finance and Development Planning, 2016a). A presidential task force is leading national consultations on National Vision 2036, a first draft of which is due for presentation, debate, and approval during the 2016 parliamentary winter session (Botswana Press Agency, 2016)). A final document is expected to replace Vision 2016 in September. In monitoring progress toward Vision 2016’s four long-term goals (sustained development, rapid economic growth, economic independence, and social justice) and seven development “pillars,” the Vision 2016 Council has generally relied on a variety of regional and international indicators of objective data, such as per capita gross national income (GNI) or the Human Development Index (HDI) on the economic front and indicators of governance and democracy from the Mo Ibrahim Foundation and Freedom House on the political front (Vision 2016 Council, 2016). In addition, the council conducted a public opinion survey in 2010 to gain an understanding of ordinary citizens’ evaluations of the document itself and of the country’s progress on its development indicators. This paper aims to complement that study by providing updated analysis from the latest Afrobarometer survey (2014) in Botswana, in addition to longitudinal data and supplementary insights from the Afrobarometer questionnaire’s broader focus. What are Batswana’s evaluations of the progress made toward each of the National Vision 2016 development pillars? Which areas should the government prioritize moving forward into a post-2016 development agenda? The analysis applies the Vision 2016 Council survey’s benchmarks to Afrobarometer findings to evaluate success or failure on all seven pillars: an educated, informed nation; a prosperous, productive, and innovative nation; a compassionate and caring nation; a safe and secure nation; an open, democratic, and accountable nation; a moral and tolerant nation; and a united and proud nation. Positive evaluations by 67% or more of citizens constitute “good” performance, 50%-66% is “average,” 34%-49% is “poor,” and less than 33% is “critical” (Vision 2016 Council, 2010, p. 6.). Overall, the results show that the country has done fairly well in a number of areas, particularly in improving access to education and maintaining social cohesion, but continues to struggle to distribute national wealth among all of its citizens. Consequently, political leaders and ordinary Batswana will continue to face many of the same economic challenges identified in 1997 as the country moves into the next phase of national development.
Topic:: Development, Education, Governance, Public Opinion, Democracy, and Social Justice
Political Geography:: Africa and Botswana

797. Botswana's Democratic Consolidation: What Will it Take?

Author:: Rorisang Lekalake
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: Botswana is Africa’s oldest continuous democracy, having enjoyed decades of peaceful multipartyism since independence in 1966. However, this success is tempered by growing concerns that the country’s remarkable stability has come at the cost of further political development. Significant weaknesses in Botswana’s democracy include low civic participation, relatively weak opposition and civil society sectors, and a lack of incumbent turnover in 11 consecutive free and fair elections. Despite these challenges, Botswana has maintained its reputation as an African success story due to the scale, pace, and endurance of its socioeconomic and political development, particularly given setbacks elsewhere in the region. Democracy is one of Botswana’s four founding principles and is a pillar of its National Vision 2016, which has driven development plans since 1997 (Presidential Task Group, 1997).1 The Vision 2016 Council’s evaluation of the country’s progress on this front is largely positive, citing high rankings on international benchmarks relative to other African countries (Botswana Vision 2016 Council, 2015). Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), for example, ranks Botswana as the least corrupt country in sub-Saharan Africa, while Freedom House has classified the country as “free” since 1973. In recent years, however, the country’s CPI score has declined (Transparency International, 2015), and in 2009, Freedom House downgraded Botswana’s political rights rating as a result of “decreased transparency and accountability in the executive branch under President Seretse Khama Ian Khama’s administration” (Freedom House, 2015a).
Topic:: Corruption, Development, Governance, Democracy, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Africa and Botswana

798. The Rules of the Game: Towards a Theory of Networks of Access

Author:: Ashley Jackson
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
Abstract:: The post-Taliban state-building process began earnestly and with great optimism at the Bonn conference in 2001. At Bonn, the international community brought together a carefully selected group of Afghan stakeholders and created a new vision for the country’s future, premised on democratic governance, de-personalised state institutions and markets. Yet, even as the implementation of these ideals clashed with realities inside Afghanistan in the ensuing years, very few dared to question the rationale underpinning state-building and governance efforts. Fifteen years on from Bonn, Afghanistan is a ‘failed’ state.1 The National Unity Government hinges on a highly contentious, precarious political settlement. State institutions at all levels are fragile and nepotistic, with tenuous links to the population and limited capacity to deliver security, governance or basic services. The government is heavily reliant on donor largesse and aid agency capacity to fulfil basic functions, including paying government salaries and providing basic services such as healthcare and education.
Topic:: Governance, Democracy, State Formation, State Building, and Social Services
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Middle East

799. Ethiopians’ Views of Democratic Government: Fear, Ignorance, or Unique Understanding of Democracy?

Author:: Robert Mattes and Mulu Teka
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: As part of Afrobarometer's Round 5 surveys in 35 African countries, its partner ABCON PLC Consulting House interviewed 2,400 adult Ethiopians in August 2013. Analysis of the collected data raised significant questions about the comparability of Ethiopia results with those from other surveyed countries, particularly with regard to attitudes toward democracy. These questions are laid out and explored in this working paper. In light of these questions, Afrobarometer has not included Ethiopia results in multi-country analyses. We advise caution in any attempt to compare responses to democracy-related questions from Ethiopia with those from other African countries. Analysts are advised to use the Ethiopia data set only in a stand-alone setting or to limit their comparative analysis to items that are not focused on democracy.
Topic:: Development, Government, Public Opinion, and Democracy
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

800. Montenegro: Elections Aftermath and the European Commission’s 2016 Country Progress Reports

Author:: Srđan Cvijić and Stevo Muk
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Open Society Foundations
Abstract:: Politically, Montenegro finds itself in a paradoxical situation. At one level it is the champion of European integration in the Western Balkans when it comes to progress in the EU accession negotiations, but it is also the only country in the region that has not experienced a change of government since the introduction of the multiparty system in 1990. The same individuals, families, and political and business elites have been controlling the country’s politics and economy for more than 25 years. This situation is likely to continue after the recently held October 16 parliamentary elections where the ruling Democratic Party of Socialists managed once again to secure the most seats in parliament but fell short of securing an absolute majority. Key conclusions in this report include: the October elections were marked by numerous irregularities and were held in problematic conditions; the Montenegrin government and European Commission need to focus more on reforms in the area of the rule of law; the EU accession process remains unclear and lacks transparency. The authors present recommendations to the European Commission, European Parliament, and the EU member states for moving forward.
Topic:: Democratization, Government, Elections, European Union, Democracy, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:: Europe, Balkans, and Montenegro

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS