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29102. Waltz’s Modesty: Structures Never Tell Us All that We Want to Know - They Tell Us “A Small Number of Big and Important Things”
- Author:
- Hans Rusinek
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
- Institution:
- Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
- Abstract:
- This essay classifies Waltz’s theory into a functionalist framework, very much like the economic theories it is inspired by. Waltz assumes that structure has primacy not because this is the case, but because it helps to theorize upon. His theory should therefore be measured by its predictive fruitfulness and simplicity, not by the empiric truth of its assumptions. Constructivist criticism, which mistakes Waltz’s concept of primacy as ontological primacy and not epistemological, therefore makes a categorical mistake. Anarchy might be what states make of it, but what states make of it is broadly shown by his Theory of International Politics (TIP). By viewing TIP as a functionalist macro-theory it can incorporate constructivist theories as control- theories and creates a powerful synthesis for future research.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, Anarchy, and Political structure
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
29103. The Global Politics of Gay Rights: The Straining Relations between the West and Africa
- Author:
- Hakeem Onapajo
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
- Institution:
- Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
- Abstract:
- This article analyses the contemporary global politics of gay rights as it relates to the straining relations between the Western powers and many African states that oppose sexual minorities’ rights. While the West (with emphasis on the United States, EU, and Britain) advocates for the protection of gay rights in the world, Africa provides the largest concentration of states opposed to them. Therefore, there has been rising tension between both regions. This became more apparent after Nigeria and Uganda, respectively, signed their anti-gay bills into law in January and February 2014. In response to this, the Western powers decided to take some punitive measures, especially imposition of sanctions, against the countries to pressurise them to repeal their laws. In an unusual manner, the African states are radically determined to go ahead with their anti-gay laws in open defiance to the demands of the Western powers. This development, which is informed by a number of factors, shows a rather new pattern of behaviour by African states in global politics.
- Topic:
- Minorities, LGBT+, Sexuality, and Gay Rights
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, North America, and United States of America
29104. Financial Development and Economic Growth in European Countries: Bootstrap Causality Analysis
- Author:
- Fuat Lebe
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
- Institution:
- Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
- Abstract:
- In the present study, it was investigated whether there was a causality relationship between financial development and economic growth for sixteen European countries. Data from the period of 1988-2012 was analyzed using the bootstrap panel causality test, which takes cross-section dependence and heterogeneity into account. The results of the test showed that there was a strong causality relationship between financial development and economic growth in European countries. In European countries, there was a causality relationship from economic growth to financial development and from financial development to economic growth. These results support both the supply-leading and the demand-following hypotheses. Therefore, it can be said that the feedback hypothesis is valid for European countries.
- Topic:
- Development, Regional Cooperation, Economic Growth, and Financial Development
- Political Geography:
- Europe
29105. Complaint Calls as a Proxy for Perceived Quality: The Turkish Dishwasher Demand Estimation
- Author:
- Çağlar Yurtseven
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
- Institution:
- Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
- Abstract:
- The paper estimates dishwasher demand and supply in Turkey. The constructed Stackelberg type oligopolistic competition, with its strong testable implications is demonstrated to be consistent with a stable market composed of a leader firm and followers. The paper has an important contribution to demand estimation literature as well. The complaint calls rate for a product is offered and shown to be a valid proxy to help the problem of omitted variable bias due to the unobserved characteristics as perceived quality or after sale service quality. Elasticities calculated for each demand determinant can help durable good firms in emerging countries to use their investment and marketing resources more efficiently.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Demand, Supply, and Consumerism
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Asia
29106. IMS-Growth Triangle, SADC and APEC: A Brief Analysis of Regional Integration and Transborder Relations from Critical Geopolitical Perspectives
- Author:
- Iqbal Shailo
- Publication Date:
- 07-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
- Institution:
- Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
- Abstract:
- This study briefly discusses three case studies of regional integration, namely the Indonesia-Malaysia-Singapore Growth Triangle (IMS-GT), the South African Development Community (SADC) and the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), to critically examine contemporary integration project as a phenomenon in which sovereignty, identity and boundary/territory are constructed and confirmed. Poststructuralist approaches reconsider regional communities as pre-given institutes, practices and actors, and inspire to focus on how these categories are constructed and implemented. I am concerned with two important questions: what are the central theoretical dilemmas concerning the concept of regional integration; and how can critical geopolitics employ the integration project and constructive discourses to form a broader view of regional integration?
- Topic:
- Globalization, Regional Cooperation, Geopolitics, Borders, and Regionalism
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia, Malaysia, and Asia
29107. Debating State Capacity and Intrastate Wars in South Asia
- Author:
- Azhar Ali
- Publication Date:
- 07-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
- Institution:
- Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
- Abstract:
- In South Asia the notion of intrastate wars are prevalent and prolonged. Most of the countries in the region have faced or are still struggling with such wars. Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) rebellion movement in Sri Lanka, till very recently, violent Nexal movement and Maoist insurgency in India and sectarian violence in Pakistan, Taliban and Al-Qaida in Afghanistan have all been the part of intra-state wars. These wars challenge the authority and the integrity of the state. The state’s monopoly over the means of violence seems eroded in South Asia due to certain developments in the international system. The issue of intra-state war has become major problem for the states in South Asia to deal with. This paper argues that these intra-state wars challenge and influence the power of the state particularly in South Asia. It further analyses the state capacity and tries to look that how state finds itself constrained to in dealing with such intrastate wars. In a precise manner this paper also attempts to understand the changing conceptions of security due to the changed nature of modern warfare.
- Topic:
- Globalization, War, State Formation, Information Technology, and Intrastate Wars
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, South Asia, India, and Asia
29108. A Review of Public and Private Investment in South Africa
- Author:
- Garikai Makuyana and Nicholas M. Odhiambo
- Publication Date:
- 07-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
- Institution:
- Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
- Abstract:
- The paper aims to put the limelight on the growth dynamics of public and private investment in South Africa from the apartheid period through to 2012. With the adopted inward-looking growth policy during the apartheid, massive economic infrastructure public investment stimulated private investment. Growth buoyancy of private investment continued with the implementation of the market system in 1994, complemented by the core infrastructure growth. While the South African investment climate is considered to be competitive, at least in comparison to other African economies, there are areas that still need further improvement to unlock higher investment growth potential that includes non-all-inclusive infrastructure.
- Topic:
- Apartheid, Infrastructure, Economic Growth, Investment, Public Sector, and Private Sector
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Africa
29109. The Role of Contesting Ideologies: Civil-Military Relations in Turkey
- Author:
- Rahman Dag
- Publication Date:
- 07-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
- Institution:
- Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
- Abstract:
- Civil-military relationship is generally examined through the use of an institutional approach or theories (concordance) that emphasise the salience of power struggles and social cohesion. These contributions are important but often exclude the role of contesting ideologies. To address this gap, this paper takes an ideological approach to address civil-military relations in Turkey. The analyses commence with the military reforms of the Ottoman Empire in the late 19th century and the Republican period. The paper argues that modernization projects of the Empire paved the way for military superiority which turned into being saviour and founders of the Republic. It then moves to consider the ideological parameters that coloured the military establishment, arguing that the target of modernization was itself systemized and internalized into Kemalist ideology and the duty to preserve this remains inculcated in the contemporary military establishment.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Military Affairs, Coup, and Civil-Military Relations
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Asia
29110. Tunisia’s Economic Transition? Popular Evaluations of Social Crisis and Reform
- Publication Date:
- 11-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Arab Barometer
- Abstract:
- Economic growth and adequate social provision can make or break a potential democratic transition. In the five years following the 2011 uprising that overthrew former President Zine el-Abedine Ben Ali, Tunisia has successfully installed the architecture of political democracy: presidential and parliamentary elections in 2014 have been widely hailed as fair and transparent, and a consensus constitution was promulgated in January 2014. Yet the substantive benefit of democracy – the translation of citizens’ needs and priorities into concrete policy solutions – has in many ways remained elusive. Previous survey research has established that a plurality of revolutionary protesters in 2011 were motivated by economic failures and corruption (Beissinger, Jamal, and Mazur 2015); an exit survey of Tunisians during the 2014 parliamentary elections likewise showed that a large majority of voters prioritized economic growth, employment, and the cost of living over other concerns, including security and civic freedoms (Berman and Nugent 2015). National household survey data from the Arab Barometer (2016) confirms that Tunisians identify “the economic situation” as the most important challenge facing their country.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Education, Public Opinion, Higher Education, Academia, and Students
- Political Geography:
- Tunisia
29111. Ambassador Walid Obeidat, A conference at the Knesset
- Author:
- Walid Obeidat
- Publication Date:
- 07-2016
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- A conference at the Knesset, July 2016
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Knesset
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Jordan
29112. Sino-Poland cooperation on publishing fosters the flower of friendship
- Author:
- Liu Yehua, Gao Ya, and Tian Yuan
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
- Institution:
- Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
- Abstract:
- There has been a long-termed history of Sino-Poland friendship. Poland is one of the first countries establishing diplomatic relation with China, in terms of which the year of 2016 is the 67th anniversary. Since establishment of diplomatic relation, with mutual exchanges being deeper and deeper, cooperation between China and Poland on publishing has been more and more prosperously developed. According to this great trend, China Renmin University Press has cooperated with Polish publishing houses on a great number of outstanding academic works since 2008.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Publishing
- Political Geography:
- China, Eastern Europe, Asia, and Poland
29113. Ethnicity and ethnicities Part I
- Author:
- Shokhrat Kadyrov, Olga Brusina, and Isaac Scarborough
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
- Institution:
- Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
- Abstract:
- Scientific paradigm changes are frequently accompanied by the reconsideration of central terms and ideas. This article demonstrates how this process is currently underway in Russian anthropological studies [narodovedenie] as part of a broader move away from ethnography to theoretical ethnology. The article also shows lines of succession and divergence between various paradigms currently dominant in Russian anthropology, including primordialism and constructivism, and presents the author’s vision of a definition of “ethnicity”, instruments needed to study ethnicities, the nature of “ethnicity,” the underlying axioms on which ethnicities are conceptualized. An initial attempt has been made in the article to outline the central positions that would provide for a principally new ethnological paradigm by way of a new definition of the phenomenon of ethnicity
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Ethnicity, Anthropology, and Constructivism
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eastern Europe, and Global Focus
29114. Civil society institutions crucial in securing human rights and freedoms
- Author:
- Bakhrom Babaev
- Publication Date:
- 06-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
- Institution:
- Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
- Abstract:
- A roundtable discussion has taken place in Paris to deliberate on the experience of Uzbekistan and France in civil society development The event was organized by the diplomatic mission of Uzbekistan in collaboration with the Institute for Forecasting and Security in Europe (IPSE). Representatives of socio-political, expert-analytical circles and non-state sector of France attended the occasion. Event participants were familiarized with large-scale efforts undertaken in Uzbekistan in encouraging the development of civil society institutions, consolidation of their role and significance in public affairs, in augmenting the socio-economic activity and law culture of the population, ensuring human rights, freedoms and legitimate interests. Organizational and normative measures approved in the framework of implementation of the Concept of Intensification of Democratic Reforms and Formation of Civil Society in the Country triggered keen interest among French experts.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Human Rights, Institutions, and Freedom
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Central Asia, France, and Uzbekistan
29115. Expanded localization, strengthened cooperation
- Author:
- Bakhrom Babaev
- Publication Date:
- 06-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
- Institution:
- Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
- Abstract:
- IX International Industrial Fair and Cooperation Exchange completed its work in the Expocentre in Tashkent. It was attended by about 2,000 local enterprises and companies of which more than 1000 – small businesses and private entrepreneurship. They exposed to more than 20 thousand items. The traditional forum of industrialists of Uzbekistan was carried out in the framework of implementation of tasks set by the President Islam Karimov to build a modern, diversified and competitive economy through active continuation of structural reforms, modernization, technical and technological renewal of the most important industries, accelerate the development of industrial and social infrastructure, especially in rural areas, and full support for domestic producers, small businesses and private entrepreneurship.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Local, and Conference
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia and Uzbekistan
29116. The Complex and Increasingly Dangerous Nuclear Weapons Geometry of Asia
- Author:
- Greg Thielmann and David C. Logan
- Publication Date:
- 07-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Arms Control Association
- Abstract:
- While much of the world’s attention is focused on efforts to halt the nuclear and missile tests of North Korea, the nuclear arsenals and ambitions of India, Pakistan, and China also pose significant dangers and deserve more attention. The complicated nuclear weapons geometry of Asia extends from the subcontinent to the other side of the world. While Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is designed to counter India’s conventional and nuclear forces, New Delhi measures its own nuclear weapons program against that of China. Beijing, in turn, judges the adequacy of its nuclear arsenal against the threat it perceives from the United States’ strategic offensive and defensive capabilities. And in its efforts to mitigate the ballistic missile threat from North Korea, the United States and its allies in the region are expanding their strategic and theater missile defense capabilities. In order to fully understand how the pace and direction of nuclear proliferation can be influenced, the interconnections of these countries must be considered, along with the kinds of nuclear weapons they have at their disposal.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Nonproliferation
- Political Geography:
- Asia
29117. Resuming Negotiations with North Korea
- Author:
- Elizabeth Philipp
- Publication Date:
- 06-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Arms Control Association
- Abstract:
- The window of opportunity to prevent North Korea from fielding nuclear-armed ballistic missiles is closing. Diplomatic engagement with North Korea has been scant in recent years. In response to Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile tests, the United States and other countries, through actions of the United Nations Security Council and independent policies, have adopted an approach of increasing political and economic isolation. Yet, during this time, Pyongyang has improved its nuclear weapons capability quantitatively and qualitatively. The next presidential administration must prioritize reviewing and renewing Washington’s diplomatic approach to North Korea. With each successive nuclear and missile test, North Korea advances its knowledge and consolidates its capability. History has shown that it is far easier to convince North Korea to negotiate away a military capability it does not yet possess. Washington’s stated primary concern is a North Korean nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Pyongyang will achieve this capability if it is not reined in through a diplomatic agreement or understanding. Once Pyongyang achieves this status, the security balance in Asia will be disrupted and U.S. diplomats will be hard-pressed to convince North Korea to abandon the capability.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, United Nations, Military Affairs, and Nonproliferation
- Political Geography:
- United States and North Korea
29118. North Korea’s Nuclear Threat: How to Halt Its Slow but Steady Advance
- Author:
- Greg Thielmann
- Publication Date:
- 02-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Arms Control Association
- Abstract:
- In the first five weeks of 2016, North Korea twice defied UN Security Council resolutions designed to stem its pursuit of nuclear weapons. On January 6, it conducted its fourth underground nuclear test; on February 7, it launched a satellite into space for the second time. These two events provided a vivid reminder that North Korea continues to make progress mastering the technology needed for developing long-range ballistic missiles and arming them with nuclear warheads. U.S. leaders have long sought to formulate and implement policies that would secure a denuclearized Korean peninsula, but these efforts have not been successful. U.S. political commentary on North Korea vacillates between taking at face value the regime’s exaggerated claims of technological prowess and reducing its leadership to cartoonish stereotypes. A clearer understanding of North Korea’s motives and the current status of its nuclear and missile programs can lead to a more realistic strategy for enhancing U.S. security. That strategy would involve using enhanced sanctions as leverage for achieving a halt in North Korea’s nuclear and missile testing and production of fissile material, but this can only happen through negotiations.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, United Nations, International Security, Military Affairs, and Nonproliferation
- Political Geography:
- United States and North Korea
29119. Silencing the Guns: Mediation practices and contemporary wars
- Publication Date:
- 10-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- From 26 to 27 October 2016, the African Union (AU), in collaboration with the Government of the Arab Republic of Egypt, hosted the 7th AU High-level Retreat of Special Envoys and Mediators on the Promotion of Peace, Security and Stability in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt (Sharm El Sheikh Retreat). Co-organised by the African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD), and the Cairo Center for Conflict Resolution and Peacekeeping in Africa (CCCPA), the retreat brought together a range of senior representatives from the AU Commission (AUC), including the Commissioner for Peace and Security, Special Envoys, Special Representatives and distinguished mediators. Also in attendance were senior representatives of the continent’s regional economic communities (RECs) and regional mechanisms (RMs), as well as eminent officials from the United Nations (UN), European Union (EU), League of Arab States (LAS) and civil society organisations (CSOs).
- Topic:
- United Nations, International Security, Europe Union, Peace, African Union, and Arab League
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Middle East, and North Africa
29120. Aid for governance: How to support effective, accountable, and inclusive institutions for sustainable development?
- Author:
- Rachel M. Gisselquist and Danielle Resnick
- Publication Date:
- 11-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Aiding government effectiveness in developing countries has been a priority issue for the international donor community since the 1990s. With the Paris Declaration in 1994, donors further committed to aiding government effectiveness in a manner consistent with local ownership and harmonization with national development objectives. These issues have received renewed attention in discussions surrounding the Sustainable Development Goals, which have highlighted the importance of effective governance and institutions.
- Topic:
- Development, Foreign Aid, Governance, and Inclusion
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
29121. Ethnic inequality and community activities in Indonesia
- Author:
- Christophe Muller
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- For the first time in Indonesia, we jointly analyse several economic statistics and ethnic diversity indicators at national and local levels. Nationally, we find very high levels of economic inequality, measured from household asset values or consumption expenditure. In contrast, the levels of ethnic diversity, while non-negligible, are much lower, whether they reflect fractionalization, polarization, or ethnic inequality based on individual living standards. All ethnic inequality indicators surged after the Asian economic crisis. Ethnic inequality based on education is much lower and decreasing. In panel data models, individual participation in community activities is found to be much determined by local patterns of ethnic diversity. Different dimensions of ethnic diversity generate distinct effects. Ethnic polarization stimulates participation in strategic activities. Instead, ethnic fragmentation and ethnic inequality depress most local activities. Finally, we provide tentative explanations of local ethnic inequality in regressions that show a mixed pattern of socioeconomic influences.
- Topic:
- Inequality, Ethnicity, Diversity, and Community
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia and Southeast Asia
29122. Gender divide in agricultural productivity in Mozambique
- Author:
- João Morgado and Vincenzo Salvucci
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- In this study we analyze the gender gap in agricultural productivity in Mozambique applying the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition approach on data from four agricultural surveys between 2002 and 2012. We find that female-headed households are on average substantially less productive (about 20 per cent) than male-headed households, and that differences are more pronounced in the centre-north compared to the south. The gap persists even though female-headed households are disproportionally found in relatively smaller plots, and a pronounced inverse-size productivity relation exists. We could identify some of the most important drivers of this divide linked to differences in endowments. However, a larger proportion is accounted for by the structural part, potentially linked to technical efficiency, pure discrimination, or other unobservable characteristics.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Gender Issues, and Inequality
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Mozambique
29123. Characteristics of the Vietnamese business environment: Evidence from a SME survey in 2015
- Author:
- Kasper Brandt, John Rand, Smriti Sharma, Finn Tarp, and Neda Trifković
- Publication Date:
- 11-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This is the sixth time that the collaborative small and medium enterprise (SME) panel survey has been conducted among formal and informal manufacturing firms in Viet Nam. The results of previous survey rounds, those of 2005, 2007, 2009, 2011, and 2013 were a motive for UNU-WIDER to approve and take the lead in collaboration with the Institute of Labour Science and Social Affairs (ILSSA) of the Ministry of Labour, Invalids and Social Affairs (MOLISA), the Department of Economics (DoE) of the University of Copenhagen, and the Central Institute of Economic Management (CIEM), to implement another survey in 2015. The 2015 fieldwork behind this report consisted of face-to-face interviews that were implemented in June, July, and August. Just over 2,600 small and medium-sized non-state enterprises operating in the manufacturing sector were interviewed in ten provinces, namely the cities of Ha Noi, Hai Phong and Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), and Ha Tay, Phu Tho, Nghe An, Quang Nam, Khanh Hoa, Lam Dong and Long An provinces. The present report is based on the information about enterprises that were interviewed since 2005 and new enterprises that were added as a replacement for those that exited the survey. The SME biannual surveys referred to above are a result of collaborative research efforts on collecting and analysing data representative of the private sector in Viet Nam. This means that not only large or formally registered enterprises are included in the survey. As such, the SME survey builds on the existing databases created through other initiatives in Viet Nam, aiming to collect data and gain an understanding of the SME dynamics in Viet Nam. The present report aims to provide researchers and policy makers with an overview of key facts from the 2015 survey round, comparing as appropriate with data from 2013 and earlier years. The report does not contain a complete description of the full range of information available in the dataset. We encourage readers to explore the questionnaires that were used in the collection of data (available online) to see all the issues addressed. Several in-depth studies of selected issues on the Vietnamese private sector economy, exploiting the database, are underway. Subsequent studies will make use of the fact that a sample of approximately 2,600 SMEs is available, including a representative panel dating back to 2005.
- Topic:
- Economics, Business, Statistics, and Survey
- Political Geography:
- Vietnam and Southeast Asia
29124. Trash Talk: Turning Waste into Work in Jordan’s Za’atari Refugee Camp
- Author:
- Soman Moodley
- Publication Date:
- 08-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- Syrian refugees have the capacity to provide key support for service delivery and the expertise to contribute to the expansion of new productive economic sectors. This paper highlights an innovative approach to solid waste management and income generation, and aims to promote further dialogue on the role that Syrians can play in the Jordanian economy.
- Topic:
- Gender Issues, Refugee Crisis, Displacement, Humanitarian Crisis, Community, and Empowerment
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Syria, and Jordan
29125. The Caliphate’s Global Workforce: An Inside Look at the Islamic State’s Foreign Fighter Paper Trail
- Author:
- Brian Dodwell, Daniel Milton, and Don Rassler
- Publication Date:
- 04-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
- Abstract:
- This report contains an analysis of over 4,600 unique Islamic State personnel records that were produced by the group primarily between early 2013 and late 2014. The importance of this data for understanding the Islamic State and, in particular, the foreign fighter flow, cannot be overstated. To put it simply, it is the largest cache of primary source documents produced by the Islamic State available in the open-source as of this date. These particular documents were acquired by NBC News from an Islamic State defector and subsequently provided to the CTC (and other entities). This report provides a window into the organization’s global workforce, revealing information about foreign fighters’ countries of origin, citizenship, points of entry into Syria, marital status, skills and previous occupations, education levels, religious knowledge, fighting role preferences in the group, and previous jihadist experience. In addition to analyzing the data at the macro-level, the report also highlights numerous anecdotes of individual fighters. Taken together, the analysis in this report reveals an organization that is attempting to vet new members, manage talent effectively within the organization, and deal with an incredibly diverse pool of recruits.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Radicalization, Islamic State, Recruitment, and Foreign Fighters
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Europe, South Asia, Central Asia, Middle East, East Asia, Syria, and Southeast Asia
29126. Doku Umarov, Founder of the Caucasus Emirate: From Secularism to Jihadism (Jihadi Bios Project)
- Author:
- Michael Fredholm
- Publication Date:
- 04-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
- Abstract:
- The CTC is pleased to launch the publication of papers as part of a series devoted to the study of jihadist biographies. The purpose of this project is to contribute to the knowledge of the evolution of the jihadist landscape by exploring it through the lens of the worldviews and experiences of actors who have shaped it. While some states and organizations, wittingly or unwittingly, contributed to the growth of the jihadist enterprise, it may be argued that modern jihadism, as it continues to unfold, is also the product of individuals, who made it into the global phenomenon that it is. As we study the biographies of jihadis, we are faced with a world crowded with different and differing worldviews. Beneath the banner of jihad that seemingly unites jihadis worldwide is a world marked not just by cooperation between groups and individuals, but also by competition and divisions. Some of the jihadis who occupy that world are characterized by a commitment to idealistic goals, by acumen, skills, and agility; others are driven by sectarianism, criminal disposition, and opportunism; while others manifest an odd combination of all. That is why the actions emanating from the jihadist landscape are the results of an amalgam of strategy, sophisticated planning and targeting, randomness, and juvenile enthusiasm. It is for these reasons and more that the complexity of the jihadist landscape requires different layers of analyses and a rigorous and patient approach to the subject. In short, the study of jihadism is about both the “forest” and the “trees;” and this series of biographies is a study of the “trees” as they are situated in the broader “forest.”
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Secularism, Jihad, and Biography
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Turkey, and Middle East
29127. Communication Breakdown: Unraveling the Islamic State’s Media Efforts
- Author:
- Daniel Hamilton
- Publication Date:
- 10-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
- Abstract:
- This report breaks down the Islamic State’s media activities through a two-fold approach. First, it examines a small number of declassified documents captured from the group’s predecessors to provide a baseline understanding its present-day media structure and operations. Second, through an examination of over 9,000 Islamic State official media products, this report offers detailed insight into what the group is saying and what a study of its propaganda can tell us about its strengths, weaknesses, and struggles. A number of findings emerge from these analyses. First, the Islamic State’s media network is adaptive and complex. Second, the group publishes products on a variety of themes, only one of which has to do with the violence for which the group is so well-known. Third, the frequency of the group’s products has declined significantly since its highpoint in the summer of 2015. Fourth, the Islamic State’s provincial media bureaus are not all equal in terms of their production content. Finally, although advances have been made in limiting the group’s media activities, there is still more than can be done to limit the group’s outreach efforts.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Communications, Radicalization, Media, and Islamic State
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Syria
29128. Remotely Piloted Innovation: Terrorism, Drones and Supportive Technology
- Author:
- Don Rassler
- Publication Date:
- 10-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
- Abstract:
- In early October 2016, the group that calls itself the Islamic State killed two Kurdish soldiers with an explosive device hidden inside a drone. While terrorist groups have long had a fascination with drones and experimented with their use, the incident was a first for a terror group, and it potentially represents the leading edge of a wave of similar incidents that could follow in the months, years and decades ahead. Much has been made of the threat of terror use of drones, but little empirical and historical work has been done to support our understanding of this phenomenon and its evolution. This report seeks to address this gap by providing a review of, and framework to situate, cases in which terrorist entities have either shown a substantive interest in drones or have used them. It evaluates both individual use cases and the activity of groups that have used drones frequently enough to constitute their having a “program.” These cases are then complemented by a review of the creative ways that private citizens have used drones, in order to provide decisionmakers with a firmer baseline of both demonstrated terror capability and what lies within the immediate realm of possibility, given what has already been achieved by others. This report also includes an overview of new technologies that are likely to further complicate the scope of this developing threat.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Al Qaeda, Drones, and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)
- Political Geography:
- Europe, South Asia, Middle East, Asia, and Colombia
29129. Structural Change in Wage Differentiation Patterns for Turkey in Terms of Working in the Same Industry
- Author:
- Bengi Yanık İlhan
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
- Institution:
- Altinbas University
- Abstract:
- This paper investigates the wage differentiation patterns in Turkey between couples who work in the same industry and those who work in different industries. The Turkish Household Labor Force Surveys from 2004 to 2014 are utilized as the main data. As the graphical representation verifies, regions can be grouped into three with respect to wave differentiation. In the first group, differentiation gap remains the same; for the second group, the gap increases; and for the last group, while the gap first decreases and disappears, it then increases again in favor of who the ones who work in the same industry. These findings are valid not only for females' but also males' mean hourly income. In the empirical analyses, the squared wage differences are clustered into three categories by using K-Means clustering method. Then, the behavior of each region changing from one cluster to the other are tracked and calculated with variations of this behavior. It is examined that not only eastern regions but also northern and landlocked regions changed their clusters during the last decade. In addition to that, their calculated variation of this behavior is higher compared to the ones for western, southern and seaside regions. If the variation is higher for the region, this is probably due to structural changes in those regions.
- Topic:
- Economics, Industry, Wage Income, and K-Means Clustering
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
29130. Forced population movements as a current ethical dilemma and the possibilities of collective action
- Author:
- C. Akça Ataç
- Publication Date:
- 07-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
- Institution:
- Altinbas University
- Abstract:
- The spirit of our times has been increasingly determined by refugee crisis and asylum institutions. If one could read the ongoing economic, political, environmental and demographic crises correctly, a refugee crisis would not have been treated as unexpected, unfortunate singular coincidence. A comprehensive, non-proscriptive approach with a collective, multilevel engagement must urgently be generated by the international community to create an all-encompassing legal consciousness. This paper seeks to delve into the question of the current refugee crisis from an historical point of view and recount the progress of the international refugee regime. In doing that it will also discuss the possibility of the launch of a collective action by the international community in the present. Refugee history is not progressive; it has not linearly proceeded towards comprehensive solutions. There are ruptures, retreats, changes of attitude -from positive to negative, from negative to inaction. Despite the growing global governance with the participation of international and non-governmental organizations, states are still the major actors in the refugee regime. The dominant role of the states in managing the refugee crisis creates an ethical dilemma, as is the case in every normative context state is involved. This paper, therefore, will finally assess the ethical dilemma unveiled by the recent EU-Turkey refugee deal.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, Population, European Union, Refugees, and Asylum
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean
29131. The Problematic of Savings: The Case of Turkey as an Emerging Market Economy
- Author:
- Emre Alkin
- Publication Date:
- 07-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
- Institution:
- Altinbas University
- Abstract:
- This study provides an analysis on the course of private savings in Turkish economy, which are considered to be the primary source of sustainable growth and development. It also discusses the way how growth model adopted by Turkey regulates the relationship between Public Expenditure, Taxes and Private Savings. Based on the results obtained from this analysis, it has been concluded that ever expanding public sector has a negative impact on private savings. As a long term solution, modifying or replacing the current growth model has been ofered. As a short term ofer, there is need to regulate the revenues and expenditures of all public institutions including the Central Government Budget with the support of the legislative authorities to eliminate the negative impact in question.
- Topic:
- Markets, Budget, Economy, Economic Growth, Tax Systems, Investment, and Public Spending
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
29132. The Impact of Print Media on Popular Culture: Umberto Eco’s Number Zero
- Author:
- Fatma Altınbaş Sarıgül
- Publication Date:
- 07-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
- Institution:
- Altinbas University
- Abstract:
- In the book published by Umberto Eco in 2015 called Numero Zero (Number Zero), on the basis of the assumption that the newspapers are able to establish various perceptions to the public in a conscious way, he has examined what kind of interventions some popular newspaper bosses have realized for the purpose of increasing their efciencies in the business world within the frame of a fction. According to Eco; popular culture is not in a sudden and unexpected structure (at least from its appearance) as it is in the cultural understanding of the modernism. By also taking the likes and demands of the wide masses it desires to be expanded into consideration, it aims a consensus between the culture producers and the culture consumers. In this way, it provides an easier and faster acceptance of the messages it sends by the masses. However, the motivation of the culture producers has derived from the market economy. The aimed thing is “proft”. Popular newspapers infict, transform and even make up the news in the cause of this proft. Eco operates by which methods the newspapers perform these destructions and reveals their tactics that direct the readers to certain assumptions with the quibbles. He tries to decipher the codes of the common popular perception delivered to the readers. According to Eco, “newspapers teach people how they should think; unfortunately, all we learn is fake and deformed”. Popular culture consists of a reference made by the fake that is replacing the truth to itself as mentioned in the simulation theory of Baudrillard, not a reality away from itself.
- Topic:
- Media, Umberto Eco, Popular Culture, and Newspapers
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
29133. Hard Power versus Soft Power or a Balance between the Two?
- Author:
- Peter Volten
- Publication Date:
- 07-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
- Institution:
- Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
- Abstract:
- Many things have changed in Turkey within the last decade, but also in Brussels as to the political practises. This commentary seeks to answer whether Turkey and the EU can find and maintain a sensible balance between toughness and empathy, between considerations of hard power and soft power. Turkey is obviously an essential, regional player both economically and militarily. Geopolitics may not appear high on the agenda of the EU, but the situation in the Middle-East simply could not and cannot be ignored as a geopolitical challenge, one that might beg for acting in concert with Turkey. On the other side, Europe represents an attraction and example based on a long history and struggle for material wealth, technological and scientific progress as well as for the accomplished degree of democracy and the rule of law. More recently, however, EU soft power suffers a number of setbacks. We disown our most basic values of soft power and will lose impact in promoting a just, democratic order in the world. If the EU and its member states fail to recover from this set-back, we risk to fall back in the hard power game, also with potential and aspiring states.
- Topic:
- Politics, European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, Rule of Law, and Soft Power
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean
29134. Why Does The International Drug-Control System Fail?
- Author:
- Behsat Ekici
- Publication Date:
- 07-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
- Institution:
- Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
- Abstract:
- The international community has been building a drug-control system for over a century. The UN-led initiatives drafted very detailed conventions, political declarations, and plans of action. International institutions and governments have been allocating vast resources for national, regional, and global counter narcotics initiatives. Law-enforcement agents, judicial officers, diplomats, and demand-reduction experts devote enormous efforts to global drug-control efforts. However, the latest field studies clearly indicate that the global war on drugs has been lost on virtually every front. Drug consumption and drugrelated deaths have increased over the past three decades. Every year, many new psychoactive substances appear on the market. Precursor chemicals are not efficiently controlled. The drug supply consistently shifts to areas where law enforcement is weak and corrupt. Drug money has allowed the dark networks to exert an increasing influence on the governments in Latin America, Southwest Asia, Central Asia, Eastern Europe, and West Africa. The drug trade undermines global security by financing terrorism and insurgency. In this context, the United Nations’ goal of a “drug-free world” is far from being reached. This paper provides an insight as to why the international efforts to control the drug supply, drug demand, and drug-driven money have failed dramatically.
- Topic:
- Crime, United Nations, Narcotics Trafficking, International Community, Drugs, and International Crime
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
29135. Violence and Security Concerns in Post-Conflict Northern Ireland
- Author:
- Imren Borsuk
- Publication Date:
- 07-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
- Institution:
- Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
- Abstract:
- Eighteen years after the Good Friday Agreement, Northern Ireland struggles with a lingering sense of insecurity. This article discusses the underlying reasons for a sense of insecurity and vulnerability in this post-conflict context. First, ongoing sporadic communal violence reactivates communal divisions and the psychological burden of “the Troubles.” The activities of spoiler paramilitary groups and sporadic communal troubles still fuel people’s anxiety about the possibility of renewed violence, as the history of political violence proves how these influences can be a destabilizing factor in inter-communal relations. Second, the unchanging patterns of political mobilization, based on the historical division of unionism and nationalism, reinforce the previous cleavages and continue to inform the boundaries of the communal divide. The political arena is still plagued by ethnic outbidding and intransigent party politicking, both of which pit communities against each other and keep the zero-sum bias between the groups alive. Third, the working-class communities that constituted the backbone of the political violence carry on the legacy of war with their continued paramilitary presence and legacy of sectarianism. The social vulnerabilities of working-class areas, such as continuing paramilitary presence, the legacy of sectarianism in segregated neighborhoods, persistent mistrust toward the police, and growing youth unemployment, need to be addressed in order to generate a long-term social infrastructure for peace.
- Topic:
- Security, Violence, and Post-Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Northern Ireland
29136. Reconciliation-oriented Leadership: Nelson Mandela and South Africa
- Author:
- Havva Kök Arslan and Yunus Turhan
- Publication Date:
- 07-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
- Institution:
- Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
- Abstract:
- Heroic leaders advocating for reconciliation has become particularly significant in the process of conflict resolution. This article analyses the case of South Africa’s national reconciliation experiences and Mandela’s iconic role in this process. It is claimed that Mandela’s reconciliation-oriented leadership, his personality, and endeavours have directly affected the promotion of intergroup reconciliation in South Africa in a positive way. The article’s analytic framework is built on Galtung’s Conflict Triangle and applied to reconciliation initiatives employed by Nelson Mandela in South Africa. The research question that this study focused on can be expressed as follows: What is the role of leaders in the process of national reconciliation? From this perspective, Mandela’s extraordinary efforts to strengthen national reconciliation in South Africa are examined by looking into his normative statements, symbolic acts, and judicial actions. The method proposed in this article contributes to the study of reconciliation at the national level, dealing with the normative statements and behaviours of those in power. In the final analysis, it was determined that there is a close relationship between the prospective success of the reconciliation process and a leader’s contribution to bringing about reconciliation in a society
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Leadership, Reconciliation, and Nelson Mandela
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Africa
29137. The Paradox of Power Asymmetry: When and Why Do Weaker States Challenge US Hegemony?
- Author:
- Hong-Cheol Kim
- Publication Date:
- 07-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
- Institution:
- Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
- Abstract:
- Little is known about how, among weaker states, incentives to challenge the status quo are related to the expected response of the US as the system’s hegemon. In contrast to conventional wisdom that suggests militarized punishment can deter potential challengers, it is argued that weak but strongly motivated challengers can interpret the hegemon’s military intervention against adversaries as a window of opportunity to launch their own actions. Empirical results using Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) and binary time-seriescross-section (BTSCS) models reveal that weaker states possess incentives to challenge the international status quo when the hegemon is preoccupied with prior foreign policy commitments, most notably war. In other words, weaker states dissatisfied with the status quo are more likely to challenge the hegemon when it is preoccupied with prior military commitments. They do so because war involvement distracts the hegemon, drains its capabilities and resolve, and opens up a window of opportunity for weaker states to issue challenges. In addition, weaker states that have an alliance portfolio dissimilar to that of the hegemon are more likely than others to initiate Militarized Interstate Disputes. Theoretically, this paper provides microfoundations to answer the question of why weaker parties instigate asymmetric conflicts when it might seem irrational to do so.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Hegemony, Conflict, Power, and Asymmetric Relations
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
29138. Conflict Resolution Revisited: Peaceful Resolution, Mediation and Responsibility to Protect
- Author:
- Seán O'Regan
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
- Institution:
- Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
- Abstract:
- Alan Tidwell, the author of Conflict Resolved? A Critical Assessment of Conflict Resolution,[1] wrote in the preface “Not all conflicts can or should be resolved; frankly there are some conflicts I do not wish to resolve – I want to win them.”[2] This is a real challenge to every person who aspires to be a peacemaker, and challenges, as Tidwell intended, the notion of peace at whatever cost. Tidwell argues that that while morally inspired positive peacemaking is a “good thing,”[3] it can lack a sense of proportion, ignoring justice, right and wrong and deep-seated reasons for grievance. Similarly, evangelical theorists “propagate the value of conflict resolution at all costs”[4] and in the process lose a sense of reality about what can realistically be achieved. The increased adoption by states of early warning, conflict prevention and conflict resolution policies is often based on notions of positive peacemaking and inspired by evangelical theorists. Latterly mediation has been added to the arsenal of state-led conflict resolution tools. This commentary will explore the limitations of mediation in relations between states, consider the implications for conflict resolution practice and advocate a principled international response to conflicts, including, if necessary, the need to win them.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Mediation
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
29139. Intelligence Cooperation in the European Union: An Impossible Dream?
- Author:
- Şeniz Bilgi
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
- Institution:
- Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
- Abstract:
- There has been a shift in the intelligence and security strategies of the states since 9/11. The attacks created a new security environment in which intelligence has become increasingly significant. Not only have the responsibilities and tasks of intelligence agencies become more important, but the necessity for intelligence and security service cooperation among nations has also increased. Accordingly, intelligence agencies had to update their strategies to put more emphasis on collaboration. This article analyzes the current EU intelligence network and tries to answer whether full intelligence cooperation in the EU could develop into a discrete organization in the aftermath of 2004 Madrid, 2005 London and the 7 January 2015 Charlie Hebdo attacks, or whether it is an impossible dream to have concerted action whereby states acknowledge their mutual alliances, interests, and strategies.
- Topic:
- Intelligence, International Cooperation, Terrorism, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe
29140. The Moroccan Monarchy and the Islam-oriented PJD: Pragmatic Cohabitation and the Need for Islamic Political Secularism
- Author:
- Abdellatif Hissouf
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
- Institution:
- Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
- Abstract:
- This paper aims to analyze the political relationship between the Moroccan monarchy and the moderate Islam-oriented Party of Justice and Development (PJD), which has been in power since 2011. The research methodology involves an in-depth case analysis and relies on a substantial number of primary and secondary sources such as official speeches, official political statements, journal articles and newspapers. The study finds the relationship between the PJD and the monarchy inconsistent, similar to the PJD’s relationship with other political parties. The paper argues that adopting an approach based on an Islamic political secularism that considers Morocco’s specific political realities may ease tension between the PJD on the one hand and the monarchy and other parties on the other
- Topic:
- Islam, Politics, Secularism, Political Parties, and Political Islam
- Political Geography:
- North Africa and Morocco
29141. Peace Education as a Post-conflict Peacebuilding Tool
- Author:
- Vanessa Tinker
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
- Institution:
- Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
- Abstract:
- This article provides a critical analysis of the literature and reports on peace education programmes in countries emerging from violent conflicts. First, it begins with an overview of peace education’s history. Next, it examines how peace education has been conceptualised, and highlights why it remains poorly defined. The article then proceeds by looking at the development of the international community’s use of peace education as a tool to contribute to their peacebuilding efforts in countries emerging from protracted contexts. After that, it reviews the research and evaluation work that has been done on peace education programmes. The article concludes with a survey of peace education programmes in ethnically/religiously linked post-conflict environments that have made mainstreaming their goal, and identifies areas of future research.
- Topic:
- Education, Reconstruction, Peace, Post-Conflict, and Peacebuilding
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
29142. Peace Education: Training for an Evolved Consciousness of Non-violence
- Author:
- Alev Yemenici
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
- Institution:
- Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
- Abstract:
- This paper aims to present a preliminary, brain-based model of peace education. In addition to subjects that current peace education models emphasize such as human rights education, environmental education and conflict resolution education, this model aims to introduce another level, namely the cellular level, at which neurobiological causes of violence and its early prevention can be addressed. Specifically, the model advocates dissemination of information on neurobiological causes and prevention of violence, and the impact of early trauma on the developing brain during the pre-natal, birth, and postnatal periods. These early periods are when a foundation of love chemicals or chemicals of violence is established and the fundamental brain architecture is laid down. In other words, through the education of children, adolescents, and adults, the model opens up a cellular dimension where violence can be prevented.
- Topic:
- Education, Trauma, Peace, Nonviolence, and Empowerment
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
29143. The Economy of Azerbaijan in 2015: Independent View
- Author:
- CESD Research Team
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- In 2015, the expansion of the US economy accompanied with improved employment rates led the FED to switch to contractionary monetary policy. On the other hand, the second largest economic power-China encountered a lower long-term economic growth rate with a fall in exports, and thereby adversely affecting global economic activity. Moreover, the rapid decline of prices in global fuel markets, owing to fundamental and political reasons, resulted in an economic downturn in countries reliant on their fuel exports, while importers experienced a higher economic activity in parallel with lower inflation expectations. Since the monetary and economic policies were originally anchored to the oil price of 90 USD, the average of 53.4 USD resulted in an economic imbalance, and ultimately leading to the second sharp devaluation at the end of the year (21.12.2015). That is to say, the Central Bank could no longer pursue the fixed exchange rate regime, and switched to the floating regime.
- Topic:
- Economics, Monetary Policy, Economy, and Currency
- Political Geography:
- Azerbaijan and South Caucasus
29144. The response of Turkey and Russia after Jet Crisis and the implications for the South Caucasus
- Author:
- Cristina Juan Carrion, Gulnara Abbas, and Ibrahim Ibrahimov
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- In 2016 and years thereafter, the economies of Turkey and Russia will experience considerable change due to sanctions imposed by the Russian government as a response to the downing of a Russian warplane in November 2015.The dissolution of Russian-Turkish ties has also affected neighboring regions, especially the South Caucasus. As a result, there will be a transformation in economic, political, demographical and social trends. The sectors of agriculture, energy and especially tourism will face tremendous changes with the performance of new key players.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Energy Policy, Migration, Labor Issues, Tourism, Sanctions, Economy, and Transportation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, Turkey, Middle East, and South Caucasus
29145. Turkish Cypriots Want a Secure Future
- Author:
- Mensur Akgün, Sylvia Tiryaki, and Muhammed Ammash
- Publication Date:
- 07-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
- Abstract:
- Presidents Nikos Anastasiades and Mustafa Akinci paved the way to rekindle the resolution process which had gone amiss on the Island over the years. Despite their inherent different political ideologies, both men were convinced of the potency of settlement; as such they worked in preparation of their societies towards the resolution. The public opinion polls conducted on the Island captures an important detail; thus, a considerable majority of the Turkish Cypriot society is unready for the eventual settlement of the Cyprus question irrespective of their leaders’ goodwill. There are two main issues essential for a concrete future resolution plan-‘security and property’. Views on the protection of the bicommunality and other expectations are equally important alongside other issues that were mentioned by the Turkish Cypriots that we conducted interviews with. The concerns raised essentially focus on the security issue. The Turkish Cypriots’ desire to live in security both politically and economically post-unification.
- Topic:
- Economics, Politics, Territorial Disputes, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Cyprus, and Mediterranean
29146. State Legitimacy, Fragile States, and U.S. National Security
- Author:
- CAP National Security and International Policy
- Publication Date:
- 09-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for American Progress - CAP
- Abstract:
- The continued growth of powerful transnational challenges poses grave and persis- tent threats to the security and well-being of the United States. America’s approach needs to be updated to include new foreign policy tools and new approaches. The heart of the new foundation for U.S. foreign policy should be an investment in the efforts of nations at risk of collapsing and unleashing global threats to build legitimacy and to escape the trap of repression followed by upheaval. International Compacts for Governance, Prosperity, and Security could transform how the international community works in partnership with fragile states to improve their legitimacy and security over time. The United States will need the political will and leadership to support steady, long-term, and carefully designed investments in fragile states. This will also require rebalancing U.S. foreign policy resources toward development, diplomacy, economic statecraft, and justice sector reform, while maintaining the world’s most powerful military. All of these tools are required to move from a focus on countering terrorism to a focus on defeating extremism and enabling other nations to build the legitimacy they need themselves. This is the strategy that will most effectively and sustainably ensure America’s national security—and, indeed, global security as well.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, National Security, Reform, and transnationalism
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
29147. The Process Behind Turkey’s Proposed Extradition of Fethullah Gülen
- Author:
- Michael Werz and Max Hoffman
- Publication Date:
- 09-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for American Progress - CAP
- Abstract:
- It is hard to overstate the gravity of what happened in Turkey during the failed July 15 coup attempt. More than 270 people were killed and thousands wounded in clashes related to the attempted overthrow of the elected government. Tanks and armored vehicles rumbled through the streets of Istanbul and Ankara; soldiers fired into civilian crowds; and rogue F-16 jets and military helicopters bombed and strafed targets in Ankara, including the parliament, the intelligence ministry, and the presidential palace. This litany of atrocities is now familiar to those covering Turkey but should provoke no less soul-searching. There has been a troubling tendency in some Western quarters to respond glibly to Turkey’s trauma, but it is worth considering how the United States government and public would react in the wake of such a crisis. The outpouring of anger and emotion from Turks of all political backgrounds is natural. Without question, those behind the coup attempt must be brought to justice and face trial. As the coup attempt unfolded through the night of July 15, Turkish officials quickly pointed to Fethullah Gülen and his followers—generally referred to collectively as Gülenists or the Hizmet movement—as the driving force behind the overthrow plot. Gülen, an Islamic scholar and U.S. permanent resident, has been living in a compound in rural Pennsylvania since his self-imposed exile from Turkey in 1999, granting few interviews and rarely seeing outside visitors. Gülen’s movement has set up schools in hundreds of countries—including the United States—and established cultural exchange programs, business associations, and media outlets. The exact personal relationship of Gülen to many of these bodies and his degree of direct control over them is not clear. Gülen and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan are former political allies, and members of the Gülen movement helped populate the state bureaucracy following the 2002 election victory of the ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP. For a decade, the AKP and the Gülenists cooperated and, indeed, the movement was an integral part of the burgeoning AKP political, media, academic, and business establishment. The alliance helped both the AKP and the Gülen movement, allowing them to erode the control of traditional military and secular elites in Turkey; there is strong evidence that Gülenists in the police and judiciary collaborated with the AKP government to purge military officers and secular rivals in two massive—and manufactured—cases against supposed coup plotters in 2008 and 2010. But Gülenist prosecutors turned on the AKP in December 2013, opening major corruption cases against senior party leaders and their families. Gülenists are believed to have leaked—or, Erdoğan supporters say, manufactured—tapes implicating Erdoğan and his family in widespread corruption, possibly in a bid to swing upcoming elections. Erdoğan and the AKP decried the corruption cases as a coup attempt and declared open political war with the Gülen movement, seizing businesses and closing media outlets and schools associated with the movement. The Turkish demand for Gülen’s extradition, then, is not new and is part of a long-running political fight. But Turkish officials and the public are absolutely convinced of Gülen’s personal complicity in the coup attempt, and the request for his extradition is a primary element of Turkey’s response to the crisis. Despite the gravity of the wider issues surrounding the coup attempt for Turkish politics and society, this brief is primarily focused on the narrower question of Gülen’s potential extradition, the process by which such extraditions are pursued under the treaty between Turkey and the United States that governs extradition, and the political ramifications for U.S. policy and relations with Turkey.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Authoritarianism, Coup, Judiciary, and Extradition
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Asia
29148. The Economic Impacts of Removing Unauthorized Immigrant Workers
- Author:
- Ryan Edwards and Francesc Ortega
- Publication Date:
- 09-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for American Progress - CAP
- Abstract:
- In every state and in every industry across the United States, immigrants—authorized and unauthorized—are contributing to the U.S. economy. Immigrant labor and entrepreneurship are believed to be powerful forces of economic revitalization for communities struggling with population decline. Estimates suggest that the total number of unauthorized immigrants currently residing in the United States is approximately 11.3 million, or about 3.5 percent of the total 2015 resident population of 324.4 million. Of those 11.3 million, we estimate that 7 million are workers. What is the economic contribution of these unauthorized workers? What would the nation stand to lose in terms of production and income if these workers were removed and returned to their home countries?
- Topic:
- Economics, Migration, Labor Issues, Border Control, and Immigrants
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
29149. Avoiding a Full Arctic Meltdown
- Author:
- Cathleen Kelly and Kelsey Schober
- Publication Date:
- 09-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for American Progress - CAP
- Abstract:
- Supplied with new evidence of accelerating Arctic warming and approaching environmental tipping points, the Obama administration will convene science ministers from around the world in September to assess the rate and consequences of Arctic climate change and weigh global strategies for averting its worst effects. This first-ever White House Arctic Science Ministerial—which will include top science advisers, high-level officials, and Arctic indigenous community leaders—coincides roughly with the one-year anniversary of President Barack Obama’s 2015 Alaskan Arctic trip. After his historic visit to the High North, President Obama told Vogue, “The looming crisis in the Alaska Arctic is a tangible preview of the looming crisis of the global condition.” The president is right to worry. The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet, setting off a cascade of dangerous changes at the top of the world that include vanishing Arctic snow and ice, thawing permafrost, and melting of the Greenland ice sheet. These changes risk triggering irreversible tipping points with perilous side effects, such as unmanageable sea-level rise and coastal flooding, more frequent extreme weather, and increased warming and carbon emissions. These changes threaten the well-being of people around the globe.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, International Cooperation, Science and Technology, and Carbon Emissions
- Political Geography:
- Arctic
29150. Recalibrating U.S.-China Relations in Southeast Asia
- Author:
- Vikram Singh, Yuan Peng, Melanie Hart, Brian Harding, Zhang Xuegang, Chen Wenxin, and Zhang Fan
- Publication Date:
- 10-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for American Progress - CAP
- Abstract:
- The Center for American Progress and the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, or CICIR, have partnered often over the years, working regularly on areas of cooperation between China and the United States and on options for managing areas of competition and tension. Together, CAP and CICIR have held or participated in many conferences, workshops, and symposiums that bring together Chinese and U.S. officials and scholars; we have worked on joint publications; and we believe that we have helped enable substantial cooperation between the United States and China. Mistrust complicates U.S.-China relations and can obscure areas where cooperation might be possible and beneficial. Negative dynamics also obscure from others the depth of U.S.-China cooperation in a wide range of areas. In this report, we try to cut through these dynamics and offer new options. In 2014, CAP and CICIR began to discuss how U.S.-China tensions might be obscuring areas of mutual interest in Southeast Asia, a region of tremendous importance strategically and economically to the entire region and the world. Prior to this project, in our respective organizations, the people who work on Southeast Asia did not work closely with colleagues working on U.S.-China bilateral relations. In most cases, our bilateral experts had spent little or no time in Southeast Asia, yet the tensions at play in the region featured prominently in their day-to-day work. Both the United States and China, meanwhile, were making investments and building new partnerships with Southeast Asian countries. Was Southeast Asia to be an arena of competition for China and the United States, or could there be areas of cooperation with members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, that brought benefit to all? The potential for research by our teams with Southeast Asian counterparts was clear. It was our friend and colleague Nina Hachigian who proposed the concept that would make this a groundbreaking project. Now the U.S. ambassador to ASEAN, Hachigian is a diplomat and scholar of rare skill and creativity. She noted that CAP and CICIR could only do productive work in this area by doing two things: First, the organizations needed to join their stovepiped research teams into a single group with expertise on both Southeast Asia and U.S.-China relations. Second, CAP and CICIR had to partner with scholars in the region who study the United States, China, and ASEAN. And rather than holding a conference, why not travel through the region with local hosts?
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Economic Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, Southeast Asia, and United States of America