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28161. Ghana's Oil Revenue Management: Convergence of Popular Opinion, the Law, and Practice

Author:
Daniel Armah-Attoh
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Ghana’s efforts to explore and develop the country’s oil potential, spearheaded by the Ghana National Petroleum Company (GNPC), culminated in the 2007 discovery of oil in commercial quantities offshore at Cape Three Points in the Western region. Three years later, production commenced at the Jubilee Field. Public expectations, already high, were further fuelled by politicians who portrayed oil revenues as a panacea and made their management a campaign issue (McCaskie, 2008). The New Patriotic Party (NPP) promised to use oil revenues to propel Ghana to accelerated economic growth and development and to improve socioeconomic conditions. The National Democratic Congress (NDC) matched that promise and raised the ante by vowing to use some of the oil revenues to create a fund for the development of the region where the resource is located, which played well with traditional leaders in the oil region. Estimates of 600 million barrels of oil in the Jubilee Field (Civil Society Platform, 2011) and more than 900 million more in untapped wells nearby mark Ghana as a potential member of the league of leading oil producers on the African continent. As in Nigeria, Angola, Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Sudan, the Republic of Congo, and Equatorial Guinea, this promises spectacular revenues while also threatening the "resource curse" or "Dutch disease" due to mismanagement or dissipation of oil revenues through corrupt government practices (Le Billon, 2005; Basedau, 2005).
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, Oil, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

28162. A Window on Policy Priorities: Evidence From the Citizens of 34 African Countries

Author:
Marvis Zupork Dome
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
The post-2015 sustainable development discourse has emphasized the need for a more inclusive and participatory policy framework projecting the voices of the people in policy-making and implementation processes. Some commentators have argued that while the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) have achieved some poverty reduction, the post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) should be better designed to enhance the living standards of the people. Yet not much has been done to create the necessary space for citizens’ voices to be heard. This paper argues for a more rigorous insistence on listening to citizens’ voices as part of the development policy process. It begins this listening through an analysis of the most urgent policy priorities of Africans, as expressed in Afrobarometer survey data from 34 African countries. Analyses of differences by region, income level, and human development level provide useful insights for the development discourse going forward.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, Public Opinion, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Africa

28163. Contesting and Turning over Power: Implications for Consolidation of Democracy in Lesotho

Author:
Libuseng Malephane
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Since its transition to electoral democracy in 1993, Lesotho has experienced a series of upheavals related to the electoral process. Election results were vehemently contested in 1998, when the ruling Lesotho Congress for Democracy (LCD) won all but one of the country’s constituencies under a first-past-the-post electoral system, and a military intervention by the Southern African Development Community (SADC) was required to restore order. A mixed member proportional (MMP) model introduced in the run-up to the 2002 general elections resulted in more parties being represented in Parliament. The MMP model also led to the formation of informal coalitions as political parties endeavoured to maintain or increase their seats in Parliament in the 2007 elections (Kapa, 2007). Using a two-ballot system, with one ballot for constituency and another for the proportional-representation (PR) component, the elections preserved the ruling LCD’s large majority in Parliament and precipitated another protracted dispute between the ruling and opposition parties over the allocation of PR seats.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Political Parties, Transition, Parliamentarism, and Partisanship
Political Geography:
Africa and Lesotho

28164. Support for the Formation of a Federation of East African States: Citizens’ Attitudes in Kenya and Tanzania

Author:
Samuel Balongo
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Political leaders in the five countries of the East African Community (EAC) – Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi – have made concerted efforts to promote the benefits of an East African Federation (EAF). The signing of regional integration treaties is covered extensively in national and regional media. Yet many citizens in the two largest member states are not convinced that integration will lead to promised benefits for their countries. In Afrobarometer public-opinion surveys in 2011-2012, citizens of Kenya and Tanzania were asked about the likely impact of an integrated EAF on the availability of jobs, managing conflict, controlling corruption, strengthening democracy, and controlling prices. On none of these five issues did a majority of Tanzanians say that an EAF would have a positive impact, and on only two issues – availability of jobs and controlling prices – did a majority of Kenyans expect improvement through an EAF.
Topic:
Governance, State Formation, State Building, Federalism, and Bureaucracy
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, and Tanzania

28165. Helmand on the Move: Migration as a Response to Crop Failure

Author:
David Mansfield
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
Abstract:
This paper provides an account of how the shift in security provision from a combined ISAF and ANSF operation to one driven by local actors has impacted upon a number of different locations in central Helmand. It is based on 140 in-depth interviews conducted in ten research sites in May 2015, and draws on a more extensive body of research consisting of fieldwork in many of the same locations dating back to May 2008.
Topic:
Security, Military Strategy, Non State Actors, and Local
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Middle East

28166. Briefing Note on Fieldwork in Balkh Province, May 2015 Opium Poppy and Rural Livelihoods

Author:
Paul Fishstein
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
Abstract:
The following notes describe very initial findings from fieldwork done in ten villages in Balkh Province’s Chimtal and Char Bolak Districts during the first two weeks of May 2015. Located west of Mazar-e Sharif, these areas have been counted among the relatively insecure areas of the province, where households have moved in and out of opium poppy cultivation since it was banned in earnest in 2007.
Topic:
Security, Drugs, Trade, and Farming
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Middle East

28167. The Politicisation of Afghanistan’s High Schools

Author:
Antonio Giustozzi and Ali Mohammad Ali
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
Abstract:
Political activism in Afghanistan’s high schools is not new. Already during the 1960s and 1970s, the country’s new political parties identified schools and universities as ideal recruitment grounds. The New Leftist and Islamist parties had significant numbers of teachers among their ranks, a fact that gave them direct access to students and the moral authority to influence them. Moreover, there were few alternatives for political proselytising in a country without a working class or large trade unions, and in the presence of a government that tried to present the emergence of political parties. For these various reasons, it would make sense to look at how political organisations approach high schools in today’s Afghanistan.
Topic:
Politics, Political Parties, Civil Society Organizations, and Partisanship
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Middle East

28168. Addressing Africa's Youth Employment and Food Security Crisis: The Role of African Agriculture in Job Creation

Author:
Olusegun Obasanjo
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF)
Abstract:
Despite the abundance of agricultural resources, sub-Saharan Africa remains the world’s most food insecure region. HE Olusegun Obasanjo’s view is that there are many critical factors responsible for food insecurity in this region. They include undeveloped land tenure systems, high bank loan rates, inadequate availability of agricultural special banks, poor access to market information and prices, an unreliable market for farm produce and inadequate road network, transport and storage infrastructures for farm produce. There is also a lack of capacity for cooperative and value addition to farm produce and poor capacity for and access to agricultural insurance services. In addition, poor capacity for labor and labor costing are also part of the problem. Agriculture is one of the economic sectors that can employ millions of young people and reduce youth unemployment and enhance food security on the continent. The challenges facing adult farmers are huge but not as large as the challenges that young people encounter when trying to engage in agriculture as a profession. Nevertheless, there is hope, and opportunities abound for young people to be successful in agriculture.
Topic:
Agriculture, Employment, Food Security, Youth, and Job Creation
Political Geography:
Africa

28169. The Effect of Exposure to Political Institutions and Economic Events on Demand for Democracy in Africa

Author:
Jakson Alves de Aquino
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
In a democratic political regime, politicians and ordinary citizens must accept elections as the legitimate means of choosing who will govern. Losers must patiently wait until the next election to have an opportunity to elect a leader according to their preferences, and winners must restrain themselves from changing the rules to increase their power. Political systems are considered consolidated democracies when elections are free and fair, alternations of power happen according to the results of elections and are accepted by all main contenders, and the general public sees the system as the best way of organizing the political life. The establishment and survival of democracy depend on both politicians and ordinary citizens being committed to it. Understanding why people have (or do not have) a favourable view of democracy, that is, why they demand democracy, is important to an evaluation of the prospects for democratic stability. Usually, national-level variables have been added to multi-level regression models of survey data. In this paper, I contribute to the investigation of why people demand democracy by adding to the usual explanations new individual-level variables related to individual exposure to political institutions and economic conditions. My two main questions are: Does exposure to democracy increase the legitimacy of democracy? Is people’s demand for democracy influenced by the past economic performance of their countries? People live in a constant process of socialization, learning from their individual experiences and from their social environments. People exposed for a longer time to democratic institutions learn how the system works, accept its procedures, and as a result demand democracy more than less exposed people.
Topic:
Politics, Democracy, Economic Growth, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Africa

28170. Does Clientelism help Tanzanian MPs Establish Long-Term Electoral Support?

Author:
Machiko Tsubura
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Tanzanian Members of Parliament (MPs) and political analysts describe the primary roles of MPs with a variety of phrases: benefactors, providers, executors, social workers, saviours, multi-faceted donors, even “walking ATMs". Indeed, in Tanzania, where a majority of citizens are poor and the government lacks resources and capacity to provide sufficient social services, MPs provide various kinds of financial and material assistance to their constituents to support their lives and cultivate their electoral support. This type of exchange builds clientelistic relationships between MPs and voters, which is common in developing countries. In Tanzania, clientelism in electoral politics was highly restricted during the one-party socialist period between the mid-1960s and the 1980s but became prominent following the transition to multiparty democracy in the early 1990s. In 2000, it was enhanced in part by the legalisation of election incentives known as takrima (meaning “hospitality”). The legalisation of takrima raised public expectations that MPs wouldsupply tangible goods and contributed to the expansion of clientelistic relationships between MPs and voters. After having been used widely in the elections of 2000 and 2005, takrima was banned in 2006, and it has been an illegal practice since then. Against this unique background, this paper uses Afrobarometer survey results to examine how election incentives and electoral clientelism affected public views on MPs in Tanzania after the prohibition of takrima in 2006. A central question is whether clientelism helps MPs gain long-term electoral support. To address this question, I employed an innovative approach by adding data on levels of electoral competitiveness and MPs’ engagement with parliamentary discussions to Afrobarometer data sets to create original variables. A regression analysis of these data demonstrates that Tanzanians who had been offered election incentives in the elections of 2010 and had clientelistic views on the roles of MPs were less likely to approve of the performance of MPs. This suggests that clientelism is not necessarily a sustainable tool for MPs to establish long-term electoral support in Tanzania.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Voting, and Partisanship
Political Geography:
Africa and Tanzania