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37781. Syrian Presidential Elections: Final Blow to Geneva

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
With interest in the Geneva conference’s lacklustre progress fading, and the Syrian regime’s presidential election showcase, any prospects for a political solution based on the 30 June 2012 Geneva declaration have been completely erased. The declaration, which was the basis for Geneva II in January 2014, had called for the formation of a transitional government drawn from both the regime and the opposition. Given this reality, and with the international community’s attention turned to other issues, the possibility of a political solution will be set even further back after the recent 3 June 2014 elections. It is likely that both parties to the conflict – the regime and its allies as well as the opposition and its supporters – will continue to strengthen their military and negotiating positions before any potential political process is launched. In addition, unpublicised contact between Iran and western countries will continue as a “second track” of the Syrian crisis.
Topic:
Syrian War, Revolution, Presidential Elections, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

37782. Taking a Gamble, Haftar Resorts to Force

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Khalifa Haftar has used the internationally-recognised “war on terror” slogan to garner both domestic and foreign support for his use of force in Libya. In particular, he knows that fighting terrorism is a priority for the United States, the foreign country most affected by terrorism in Libya because its embassy there was attacked and its ambassador and other diplomats killed in September 2012. Looking at neighbouring Egypt, Haftar also observes that leadership there is citing the “war on terror” to justify its attacks on the opposition and suppress demands for democracy and freedom. However, both Islamists and non-Islamists have voiced reservations about his strategy, including senior military officers. These groups believe that escalating violence will only succeed in exacerbating the state of affairs. Furthermore, even those who support the use of force believe Haftar is unqualified to lead this process due to past mistakes which suggest he is not capable of imposing and maintaining security.
Topic:
Security, Civil War, Democracy, Violence, and Khalifa Haftar
Political Geography:
Libya and North Africa

37783. Sisi as President: Questionable Legitimacy, Unclear Future

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
On 8 June 2014, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Egypt’s former Minister of Defence, was sworn in before the Supreme Constitutional Court as President of the Egyptian Republic. On 3 July 2013, Marshal Sisi, a general at the time, led the Egyptian army to overthrow President Mohamed Morsi after only one year in office. The lavish formalities of the inauguration swept through some circles with euphoria. For others, it only intensified feelings of calamity dating back to the 30 June 2013 demonstrations, when the military command overthrew the first popularly-elected civilian president in the history of Egypt. It is important to note that the current euphoria of victory is not related to Sisi winning the majority in the recent Egyptian presidential election because his victory was clear even before the election. Rather, it is a function of the Egyptian deep state’s victory against the challenges and risks that have threatened it since the overthrow of the Mubarak regime on 11 February 2011.
Topic:
Security, Politics, Authoritarianism, Legitimacy, and Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
Political Geography:
North Africa and Egypt

37784. Northern Mali Clashes Pose Threat of Regional Conflict

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Armed clashes in the city of Kidal in northern Mali between the Azawad movements and Mali forces are part of a long-standing tension in Azawad; however, the present moment is particularly precarious. The French are giving serious thought to confronting jihadist groups that are becoming increasingly prevalent in the region, expanding from the north of Mali up to Libya. Libya is experiencing increasing levels of armed unrest and Niger is still in the midst of a fragile peace process. The region’s governments are preoccupied with the war on Boko Haram, whose resources and activities have increased. In addition, numerous other parties have entered the crisis with conflicting agendas: Algeria, which has historically had a major influence in the Azawad region; Morocco, which recently began to creep economically into the Sahel region; and Mauritania, which has a close relationship with some of Azawad society’s components and a hidden hand in the insurgency.
Topic:
Government, Insurgency, Armed Conflict, and Destabilization
Political Geography:
Africa, Mali, and Niger

37785. Sudan: Security Crackdown Puts Dialogue at Risk

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Arrests of leading opposition figures, including Sadiq al-Mahdi, head of the National Ummah Party and imam of the Ansar sect, and Ibrahim Sheikh, chair of the Sudanese Congress Party, have cast doubt on current transformations in the Sudanese political landscape. The government recently resumed restrictions on press freedoms and suspended the newly launched al-Saiha newspaper which had waged a widely-publicised media campaign after exposing extensive corruption in government agencies. Perhaps the most important development casting doubt on the political landscape is the expanding pivotal role played by security forces and the National Intelligence Service in politics and the military. These incidents raise questions about the government’s commitment to change and further complicate the country’s political landscape. The likely repercussions may be a paper reshuffle in the political game, with a reshaped balance of power as an alternative to escalation during a time the public is hoping the Sudanese National Dialogue Initiative will succeed.
Topic:
Security, Government, Politics, and Freedom
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

37786. Turkey’s Next President: Contenders and Calculations

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Turkey’s presidential elections on 10 August 2014 will not only be the country’s first direct election for the presidency, but also the first election with no candidate from the traditional Kemalist party. There are currently three candidates in the running: Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan from the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), Dr. Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu, jointly nominated by the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), and Salahuddin Dimirtash, co-chair of the Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP).
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Kurds, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Presidential Elections
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

37787. Gaza, Round Three: Limits of Israeli Power

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
On 13 July 2014, five days after the start of the third Israeli war against the Gaza Strip, Haaretz, known for its liberal Zionist orientation, published an editorial calling on the Netanyahu government to announce that Israel had achieved its objectives. This editorial also implicitly called for him to stop the war. The editorial told Netanyahu and his government that the war had failed and that there was no justification for its continuation because that would lead to further failure. In fact, the heavy material damages inflicted by the Gaza rockets and the ability of such rockets to paralyse many aspects of life in Israeli towns and cities, in addition to dozens of international airlines suspending their flights to Tel Aviv airport, had brought Netanyahu’s war to a stalemate. This paper addresses the reasons Netanyahu decided to go to war, why it quickly become evident that this war would fail, and why the failure of Netanyahu’s war has become a double failure for Egypt, which has now clearly indicated that it is closer to the Israeli government than to its Palestinian brothers.
Topic:
War, Armed Forces, Geopolitics, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Egypt

37788. Davutoglu as Turkey's PM and Future Challenges

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Recep Tayyip Erdogan was sworn in as Turkey’s president on 28 August 2014. The day before, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) agreed to nominate one person, Ahmet Davutoglu, to take Erdogan’s place as prime minister and party leader. As Turkey’s former foreign minister who was also a superior academic, it is important to examine Davutoglu’s rise to the top position in the Turkish political establishment and government as well as the tasks that lay ahead of him. This position paper examines his journey from academia to politics, why Davutoglu was chosen by Erdogan and the AKP and what he must do to maintain the AKP and Turkish government’s momentum.
Topic:
Government, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

37789. Egypt’s Obstructed Horizon: Regime in Crisis and Fragmented Opposition

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Both parties to the Egyptian conflict have depended on the conflict to sustain their existence. As a result, the prospects for reconciliation between the regime and the main opposition force, the Muslim Brotherhood, are very slim. In the short-term, reconciliation appears to be entirely improbable. However, this does not mean that either camp is in a comfortable position. Despite the steadfastness of its street protests for over a year, the popular opposition movement appears to be no closer to displacing the regime than it was in the summer of 2013. For the regime, while there is undoubtedly a strong state apparatus behind Sisi, this has not enabled it to maintain stability nor to solve Egypt’s economic dilemmas and resolve the dramatic deterioration in the state’s ability to care for its people. Finally, controversy between various groups on the ground and tensions among opposition leaders suggest that the mood on the ground is inclined to move away from further escalation of the protests.
Topic:
Security, Government, Politics, Revolution, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt

37790. Yemen’s Houthi Movement: Limiting Military Operations Via Political Participation

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
In Yemen’s political arena, the Houthis are banking on their participation in the national dialogue to achieve various political gains while they simultaneously use military force and popular crowd mobilisation to realise objectives they are unable to achieve through their political participation. However, they would be obliged to reconsider their military actions if President Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi and his supporters (both internally and externally) are able to adopt a dual political and military strategy to convince the Houthis that the collapse of the political process will cause them to lose their positions in the Yemeni state and prevent them from ever establishing an independent state.
Topic:
Civil War, Politics, Military Affairs, Houthis, and Demonstrations
Political Geography:
Middle East and Yemen

37791. Trends in the International Community’s War on IS

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
A combination of several factors has driven the United States to launch military operations against the Islamic State (IS) organisation. Perhaps the most important of these are the imminent danger to Erbil and Baghdad, the worsening humanitarian situation, Iran’s strategic role regarding the military position of the governments in both Baghdad and Erbil, and the pressure on the Obama administration exercised by the Washington political community. IS’ beheading of American hostages in response to the initial American intervention has reinforced the US military response option. However, there is political uncertainty and considerable suspicion regarding the overall goals of the war, impacting Muslim public opinion in Syria, Iraq and neighbouring countries, including Saudi Arabia. On the one hand, it is difficult to undertake wide-ranging aerial bombardment (as is currently occurring in Syria and Iraq) without making deadly mistakes against civilians, and even military allies. On the other hand, scepticism is fuelled by the lack of clarity regarding America’s objectives, and whether this war is only against IS and whether it includes other organizations that Washington labels as radical, such as the al-Nusra Front and the Ahrar al-Sham Movement. This ambiguity about the war’s objectives, together with the persistence of the Syrian regime and its probable entrenchment as a result of the war, makes regional participation in the war more difficult, despite US promises to train and help what the Americans call “moderate” Free Syrian Army (FSA) fighters.
Topic:
Arab Countries, Islamic State, Military Intervention, and Conflict
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

37792. Egypt: North Sinai Crisis Deepens

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The overthrow of Mohamed Morsi and the continuing deterioration of the relationship between Hamas and the current Egyptian government has caused significant convergence of Egypt and Israel’s attitudes towards Hamas and the situation in the Gaza Strip, with the common goal of weakening Hamas and containing its influence in the Gaza Strip. Therefore, the Sisi regime’s recent decision to establish a buffer zone on the border has nothing to do with the fight against terrorism in Sinai and dealing with armed groups there; rather, it has everything to do with Israeli-US demands for such a zone. It is important to note that this decision is not expected to impact, positively or negatively, the ongoing war between the Egyptian government and armed groups in northern Sinai. In the same context, the opposition group Ansar Bait al-Maqdis (ABM) has recently started to follow the Islamic State (IS) group’s methods with their opponents in incubator areas, including killing those accused of being collaborators with Egyptian and Israeli security services and then explicitly claiming responsibility for the killings. Externally, in the context of the collapse of central control in Libya after the revolution, and the escalating hostility between Libyan rebels and the Egyptian regime, it is also no longer likely that armed groups in northern Sinai and Libyan armed groups will coordinate, even with their shared ideological backgrounds. This paper addresses two key questions: To what extent can the Egyptian government’s approach succeed in containing the escalating wave of armed violence in this highly turbulent region? Is the decision to establish the buffer zone aimed at aiding counter-terrorism efforts in North Sinai, or is it designed to achieve other goals?
Topic:
Security, Counter-terrorism, Violence, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, North Africa, Egypt, and Sinai Peninsula

37793. Beyond the (Non) Definition of Minority

Author:
Jennifer Jackson-Preece
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues
Abstract:
This Issue Brief aims to analyse past and present definitions of 'minority' in order to evaluate current trends and future opportunities regarding the identification of minority rights holders. In so doing, it assumes that minority identity is part of the broader socio-cultural context. Accordingly, the identity of a minority right holder refers to the attributes and opportunities associated with being a minority, including relationships between individuals and groups, as well as relations between groups. Crucially, it regards these attributes, opportunities and relationships as socially constructed and therefore context / time specific and changeable. The intention here is not to endorse a preferred definition of 'minority', but rather to reflect on how scholars and practitioners should understand use such definitions.
Topic:
Minorities, Ethnicity, Intellectual History, and Identity
Political Geography:
Global Focus

37794. The Situation of Roma between Human Rights and Economics

Author:
Eben Friedman
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues
Abstract:
If the dominant focus of documents on Roma published by intergovernmental organizations in the 1990s was on providing redress for past violations of human rights and protection fromfuture discrimination, this is no longer the case as of early 2014. Over the last decade, it has become increasingly common for calls to improve the situation of Roma to be justified in terms of economic benefits for society as a whole.
Topic:
Civil Society, Economics, Human Rights, Minorities, and Protected People
Political Geography:
Europe

37795. What do the Crimean Tatars face in Crimea?

Author:
Alexander Osipov
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues
Abstract:
The Issue Brief concerns further developments which the Crimean Tatars may experience after the Russian annexation of Crimea. The Crimean Tatars are the second largest minority in the Crimean peninsula, and they are represented by politically active movements with far-reaching claims concerning the status of Crimean Tatars and territorial self-determination. Within less than one month these people as well as their homeland have been transferred to another country with different political and legal systems and potentially a less friendly social environment. Since the contours of the future legal and institutional framework for the accommodation of Crimean Tatars are not fully clear, one can project the major organizational setups and patterns of Russian ethno-politics onto Crimea and tentatively assess their applicability. We can conclude that in a formal sense the Russian rule does not promise the Crimean Tatars much more than they already had in Ukraine, but puts them at risk of a strict police control and pressure. Such arrangements as territorial and non-territorial autonomy, power-sharing, 'rehabilitation' of the Crimean Tatars as victims of the past repressions may take place but they would have limited practical sense. Cultural programmes and recruitment of Crimean Tatars to the regional administration are unlikely to be legally guaranteed and will be fully dependent on the discretion of Russian and Crimean authorities.
Topic:
Culture, Minorities, Ethnicity, Conflict, and Identity
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Crimea

37796. What next for Moldova's Minorities after Crimea?

Author:
Federica Prina
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues
Abstract:
This Issue Brief examines the possible consequences of Russia's annexation of Crimea on Moldova and its national minorities. It further reflects on the factors that hinder greater integration of persons belonging to minorities, and the expression of minority identity in Moldova/Transnistria. The Issue Brief argues there are two indirect consequences of the annexation of Crimea by Russia. First, the annexation deepens the polarization between the pro-Russia and pro-EU camps in Moldova, which manifests itself in multiple ruptures within Moldovan society. Second, such a polarization furthers a tendency to marginalize (non-Russian) minorities, which implies a reduction of the spaces for the articulation of minority concerns and the expression of minority identity.
Topic:
Minorities, Ethnicity, Discrimination, Conflict, and Identity
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, and Crimea

37797. Canada, the Arctic Council, Greenpeace, and Arctic Oil Drilling: Complicating an Already Complicated Picture

Author:
Robert Huebert
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
Canada and the Arctic Council finds itself facing one of its greatest challenges – supporting economic development for people of the north while protecting the fragile environment of the Arctic. 2014 will bring the possibility of exploratory drilling for oil off the northern coasts of Russia, the United States, Canada and Greenland. Development of suspected oil wealth in the region could redraw the very face of the entire region. Opposition to oil development is strongest in non-northern locations, and is increasingly represented by environmental NGOs such as Greenpeace. This issue, to develop or not to develop, is poised to become the most divisive issue facing the Arctic states in the coming years. Canada will need to negotiate a very delicate balance as it proceeds as chair of the Arctic Council. It will need to promote the efforts of the Arctic Council to protect the environment, while responding to increasingly vocal opposition against the large scale development of any oil resources in the region. Canada must be prepared to act against the inevitable protests that will occur against any exploratory drilling in Canadian waters. In order to protect development in the region, Canada must have the capability to ensure order in the region once permission has been granted to companies to proceed with exploration.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Oil, International Affairs, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Canada, North America, and Arctic

37798. Making Social Rights Real: Implementation Strategies for Courts, Decision Makers and Civil Society

Author:
Celeste Kauffman and César Rodríguez Garavito
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Dejusticia
Abstract:
In this document, we have examined the challenge of implementing ESCR decisions at the domestic, regional, and international levels. First, we have considered various factors that influence the implementation of ESCR decisions and have provided an overview of existing implementation mechanisms in regional and international law. Second, we have used case studies to illustrate aspects of successfully implemented decisions at the domestic, regional, and international levels. Finally, based on the successful case studies, we have outlined several implementation strategies that may be useful to domestic courts, regional and international courts, civil society, and human rights institutions.
Topic:
Civil Society, Human Rights, International Law, Law, Courts, Civil Rights, and Legal Sector
Political Geography:
Latin America

37799. After the Dead Are Counted: U.S. and Pakistani Responsibilities to Victims of Drone Strikes

Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Open Society Foundations
Abstract:
Over the past decade, U.S. drone strikes in Pakistan are estimated to have killed well over 2,000 individuals, including an unknown number of civilians. A new report from the Open Society Foundations urges the U.S. and Pakistani governments to properly investigate and provide redress, including compensation, to civilian victims of drone strikes. Based on investigations of 27 separate U.S. drone strikes in Pakistan, and interviews with current and former U.S. and Pakistani officials, the report documents civilian casualties and analyzes the broader threats of militancy and military operations in areas affected by drones. Despite Pakistan’s strong public opposition to U.S. drone strikes, and the United States’ promises on transparency, neither government has addressed the losses suffered by civilians. The report concludes that the U.S. and Pakistani governments should create mechanisms to investigate civilian harm from drone strikes and provide compensation to victims.
Topic:
War, Military Affairs, Weapons, Drones, Civilians, and Casualties
Political Geography:
Pakistan and United States

37800. Primer: Support Technologies for Human Rights Lawyers

Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Open Society Foundations
Abstract:
This study looks at the place that technologies may have in helping human rights lawyers work most effectively. It looks at three classes of technologies: 1. Case and practice management tools, for managing the day­to­day flow of information around a case, such as the exchange of documents, task management and dates. 2. E­Discovery tools for digitizing, organizing and reviewing collections of documents, data or other material that could be evidence in a case. 3. Investigation and case building tools for organizing and analyzing the facts of a case or group of cases, providing visual overviews on maps, network charts and timelines. The goal is to provide an understanding of the problems that the available tools target, a framework for thinking about how these technologies may fit into to your work, and a good understanding of the costs involved.
Topic:
Human Rights, Science and Technology, Law, Digital Policy, and Legal Sector
Political Geography:
Global Focus