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28161. The Prospects for Peace in Burundi: Some Policy Options

Author:
George Omondi
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
The current crisis in Burundi stems from an insistence by incumbent president Pierre Nku- runziza that he is eligible to run in the coming elections to retain his office. Despite a consti- tutional court ruling in May 2015 that upheld the president’s position, opposition parties, civil society groups, religious leaders, and a section of the ruling party—the National Council for the Defense of Democracy–Forces for the Defense of Democracy (CNDD-FDD)—disagree. Their view is that President Nkurunziza has served the two terms allowed him by the consti- tution and the Arusha agreement, which was signed in August 2000 to end the civil war that began in 1993. If he runs, it will be for a third term, which is unconstitutional. A recent wave of protests rallying around a movement against a third presidential term crystallized and intensified after the president made his plan official and the National Elections Commission (CENI) subsequently cleared him to run alongside other candidates. Violent repression of protestors by police and the intimidation of citizens by a militia group linked to the ruling party have led to scores of deaths and an increasing number of refugees fleeing the country. A humanitarian catastrophe looms, internally and in neighboring countries, especially the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Rwanda, and Tanzania, which are receiving refugees from Burundi. Even worse, a return to civil war, with all the costs associated with such instability, could greatly undermine efforts to attain stability in the Great Lakes Region, where several conflicts are underway in countries around Burundi, notably the DRC, the Central African Republic, South Sudan, and Uganda. Worst of all, militant ethnic solidarities between pro- regime groups in Burundi and a predominantly Hutu militia opposed to the Rwanda govern- ment based in the DRC could further escalate conflict in the region.
Topic:
Social Movement, Legal Theory, Protests, Peace, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa, Burundi, and East Africa

28162. Toward a Community of Practice: ECOWAS and Peace and Security Policy Communities in West Africa

Author:
Olawake Ismail
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) was established in 1975 and has since evolved into a robust subregional group promoting economic integration across its members in several spheres, including commerce, transportation and telecommunications, energy and agriculture, monetary and financial policies, and peace and security.1 To fulfill objectives in these fields, ECOWAS established decision-making structures and policy development processes that include the Authority of Heads of State and Gov- ernment (AHSG); Council of Ministers (COM); a Community Court of Justice; an Executive Secretariat and Parliament; and other specialized commis- sions. The existence of these principal units notwithstanding, the ECOWAS decision-making and policy development process integrates other interven- ing variables that feed into the different channels of policy formulation and incidentally guide the trajectory along which policies emerge. This analysis focuses on ECOWAS’s nuanced (and complex) decision-making process as it relates to peace and security issues and the extent to which peace and security policy communities (including training and research institutions, academic and technical experts, and civil society activists) are engaged. The analysis is, unfortunately, limited by the absence of open source materials on the subject. While the literature on peace and security in West Africa—including the role of ECOWAS and reviews of its peace operations in Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea Bissau, and Côte d’Ivoire—is extensive,3 little or no research and few publications are extant on ECOWAS’s institu- tional setting and its process for developing peace and security policy. The little available information includes that contained in ECOWAS’s website and fleeting mention and reference in a few publications. This discussion relies instead on the author’s more than ten years of studying, observing, and engaging in ECOWAS activities (including participation in policy-related workshops, seminars, and conferences), knowledge of peace and security issues in West Africa, and interviews and informal discussions with serving and former ECOWAS staff and experts on West Africa’s peace and security.
Topic:
Security, Peace, Economic Cooperation, and Economic Integration
Political Geography:
Africa and West Africa

28163. "Japanese Strategic Weapons Programs and Strategies: Future Scenarios and Alternative Approaches

Author:
Ian Easton
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
Abstract:
The balance of power in Northeast Asia is shifting in ways that are dangerous to the security of Japan. That is certainly how the picture has appeared to the eyes of many observers in recent years.The reasons are many, and they are compelling. First, China’s emergence as a regional military power has taken place in a far more disruptive fashion than was expected. Attempts to shape China into a “responsible stakeholder” have failed. Beijing now threatens Tokyo with a growing number of coercive air and maritime operations around the Japanadministered Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands. Chinese fighters, bombers, ships, and submarines have greatly expanded the scope of their training operations. They now frequently pass through Japan’s Ryukyu Island Chain on their way out into the Philippine Sea where they conduct exercises that undermine confidence in the ability of the U.S. Navy to intervene in a regional conflict.
Topic:
International Affairs and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Japan

28164. How South Korea Could Acquire and Deploy Nuclear Weapons

Author:
James Fergusson
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
Abstract:
Political leaders and defense planners in the Republic of Korea (ROK), or South Korea, are cognizant that worsening security in Northeast Asia could lead to additional states, including the ROK, to consider and even develop nuclear weapons. In particular, Korean President Park Geun-hye warned in May 2014 that another nuclear bomb test by North Korea (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea or DPRK) would be “crossing a Rubicon” and would make it “difficult for us to prevent a nuclear domino from occurring in this area
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, International Security, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
South Korea

28165. Beguiling Americans: a guide for Indian diplomats

Author:
Christine Fair
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations
Abstract:
Pakistan continues to receive succour from its long-time ally, the U.S., despite blundering about in its neighbourhood unabashedly- be it through righteous indignation or through generous courtesies. The external affairs ministry needs to improve its approach towards U.S. officials who are visiting India in order to better its relation with the country.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

28166. Tackling Asis's Greatest Challenges

Author:
Harry J Kazianis
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
In 2012, with the cooperation and support of the Center for Global Progress, scholars and policy practitioners from the United States, Vietnam, and Japan began development of a trilateral dialogue. The nations were represented by the Center for the National Interest in the United States, the Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam, and the Research Institute for Peace and Security in Japan.
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Asia

28167. La Ronda Uno y la senda del futuro

Author:
COMEXI
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Mexican Council on Foreign Relations (COMEXI)
Abstract:
El documento fue preparado por algunos integrantes del Grupo de Trabajo de Energía por lo que representa la posición de quienes participaron directamente en su redacción. Varios miembros del Grupo más amplio contribuyeron con comentarios y sugerencias para mejorar el documento, pero éste no necesariamente representa la visión de todos y cada uno de los integrantes del Grupo de Trabajo de Energía. El contenido de este documento de ninguna manera representa la visión institucional de Comexi, cuya posición es neutral e independiente
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Mexico

28168. Of Monarchs and Military Men: The Political Pathologies that Undermine Democracy in Burma and Thailand

Author:
Kelley Currie
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
Since a 2012 outbreak of communal violence targeting Rohingyas in Burma, the trafficking business had been booming. Subsequent official persecution intended to make Burma as inhospitable to the Rohingya as possible was working as planned: more than 120,000 Rohingyas have fled Burma since December 2012. For years, migration and human rights NGOs have warned regional and donor governments of the deteriorating situation facing the growing flood of Rohingya refugees. This humanitarian and political disaster also again laid bare the pathologies currently impeding Burma and Thailand on their paths toward stability and democracy
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

28169. The Intersection of HADR and the Rohingya Refugee Crisis

Author:
Kelsey Broderick
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
HADR exercises have traditionally been aimed at responding to and preparing for natural disasters. But ultimately, the purpose of HADR is to provide assistance to those in dire need of help after a crisis, whether it is natural or manmade. More than 6,000 trafficked people floating in the ocean without access to food and water arguably constitutes just such a crisis. ASEAN, with support from the U.S. Navy, would have been well positioned to put their HADR exercises into practice to assist the victims, as they were required to under international law.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

28170. Foreign Fighters

Author:
The Soufan Group
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Soufan Group
Abstract:
In June 2014, The Soufan Group (TSG) released its initial Foreign Fighters in Syria report, which identified approximately 12,000 foreign fighters from 81 countries. Nearly eighteen months later, despite sustained international effort to contain the Islamic State and stem the flow of militants traveling to Syria, the number of foreign fighters has more than doubled. Based on its own investigation, TSG has calculated that between 27,000 and 31,000 people have traveled to Syria and Iraq to join the Islamic State and other violent Salafist groups from at least 86 countries. This increase is evidence that efforts to contain the flow of foreign recruits to the Islamic State and other extremist groups in Syria have had limited impact
Topic:
Intelligence and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

28171. Corruption Risk Assessment in the Security Sector of Bosnia and Herzegovina

Author:
Armin Kržalić
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Centre for Security Studies
Abstract:
Corruption risk assessment in the security sector of Bosnia and Herzegovina is the original work of authorship by a research team of the Centre for Security Studies which consisted of Denis Hadžović, project manager, Alma Kovačević, project coordinator, Aida Kržalić, project assistant, and surveyors Mirela Hodović, Emsad Dizdarević, Sabrina Berberović–Tadić and Sanjin Hamidičević. The assessment is one of the results of the „Mapping Corruption Risks in the Security Sector“ project which the CSS implemented during the period between December 2013 and August 2015. The Project was funded by the European Union.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

28172. Civil Capacities for Peace Support Operations: The Case of Bosnia and Herzegovina

Author:
CSS
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Centre for Security Studies
Abstract:
Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) has gone from being a receiver to providing assistance to post-conflict countries. Through its experience with rebuilding the country after conflict, BiH can make relevant and useful contributions to further peacebuilding and sustainable development in other countries. This article details current contributions BiH is making to international peace operations, maps the civilian capacities BiH could contribute in the future, and provides recommendations on how this could be implemented with regards to training, rostering and deployment of civilian capacities. Successful training, rostering and deployment of civilian capacities from BiH could be replicated at the Western Balkans level and bear witness to the development of security communities in BiH and the region
Topic:
International Relations
Political Geography:
Global Focus

28173. The Long Road to Tehran: The Iran Nuclear Deal in Perspective

Author:
Brian Gibson
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
This Strategic Update traces the story of this major diplomatic breakthrough, through the historical context of long term US-Iran relations and the tireless international effort to prevent domestic political crises from derailing the negotiations.
Topic:
International Political Economy and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

28174. WTO 'a la carte' or 'menu du jour'? Assessing the Case for More Plurilateral Agreements

Author:
Bernard M. Hoekman and Petros C. Mavroidis
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Abstract:
Plurilateral agreements in the context of the World Trade Organization (WTO) allow sub-sets of countries to agree to commitments in specific policy areas that only apply to signatories and thus allow for ‘variable geometry’ in the WTO. Plurilateral agreements share a number of features with preferential trade agreements (PTAs), which are increasingly used by governments to liberalize trade in goods and services. This article discusses the current institutional framework that governs these two alternatives and distinguishes them from the general, non-discriminatory agreements that are negotiated among – and apply to – all WTO members. Current WTO rules make it much more difficult to pursue the plurilateral route than to negotiate a PTA. We review the arguments for and against making it easier for ‘issue-specific’ clubs to form in the WTO and discuss how concerns raised by some WTO members regarding the potential negative impact of plurilateral agreements on the multilateral trading system might be addressed. We take the view that action to facilitate the negotiation of plurilateral agreements in the WTO should be considered and that the potential downsides for the multilateral trading system can be managed.
Topic:
Economics, Political Economy, World Trade Organization, and Law
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

28175. Settler-State Political Theory, 'CANZUS' and the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples

Author:
Kirsty Gover
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Abstract:
When the UN General Assembly voted in 2007 to adopt the Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (UNDRIP), only Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the USA cast negative votes. This article argues that the embedding of indigenous jurisdictions in the constitutional orders of these states via negotiated political agreements limits their capacity to accept certain provisions of the UNDRIP. Once the agreement-making process is set in motion, rights that do not derive from those bargains threaten to undermine them. This is especially true of self-governance and collective property rights, which are corporate rights vested to historically continuous indigenous groups. Since these rights cannot easily be reconciled with the equality and non-discrimination principles that underpin mainstream human rights law, settler governments must navigate two modes of liberalism: the first directed to the conduct of prospective governance in accordance with human rights and the rule of law and the second directed to the reparative goal of properly constituting a settler body politic and completing the constitution of the settler state by acquiring indigenous consent. Agreements help to navigate this tension, by insulating indigenous and human rights regimes from one another, albeit in ways not always supported by the UNDRIP.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Law, United Nations, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe, Canada, United Nations, Australia, New Zealand, and United States of America

28176. Land Rights in Nineteenth-Century Ottoman State Succession Treaties

Author:
Ilias Bantekas
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Abstract:
Ottoman state practice in the field of state succession in the 19th century displayed strict adherence to the European notions of international law. This is evident from the ratification of cession treaties, attention to reciprocity, the use of mediation and reliance on the existing laws of war principles, including the legal effects of occupation, conquest and the rights and duties of belligerents. This article focuses on state succession treaties with Greece since they represented the paradigm for all future treaties, and it examines the Islamic origin of Ottoman land regulation. The Ottomans succeeded in attaching a further condition to their cession arrangements with the new Greek state, namely the latter’s obligation to respect the property rights of Muslim citizens. This arrangement brought into play the application of Ottoman land law, to which Greece was under no obligation to succeed. This body of law, particularly the set of property rights bestowed under it, became a focal point in the ensuing state succession negotiations. It was the actual basis of Muslim property rights – a precursor to contemporary property rights – and a sine qua non element of Ottoman practice in the law of state succession. In this light, Ottoman land law and institutions should correctly be considered to be general principles of law – with origins from the Quran and the early caliphates – as well as regional custom, at least in the territories liberated from Ottoman rule, which continued to apply and enforce it not only among Muslims but also in the property relations of the indigenous ethnic communities.
Topic:
International Law, Islam, Treaties and Agreements, History, and Land Law
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, and Ottoman Empire

28177. The Hybrid Legal-Scientific Dynamic of Transnational Scientific Institutions

Author:
Oren Perez
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Abstract:
The objective of the present article is to develop a better understanding of the institutional dynamic of transnational regulatory scientific institutions (RSIs). RSIs play a significant role in the transnational regulatory process by mediating between the scientific community and policy-making bodies. I argue that RSIs have a hybrid structure involving both political-legal and epistemic authority. The hybrid structure of RSIs – their capacity to exert both normative and epistemic authority – constitutes an innovative response to the demand of modern society for scientific certainty and to the scarcity of normative power in the international domain. This hybrid nature has a triple structure involving three complementary pairs: law~science, law~non-law and science~pseudoscience. I examine the way in which RSIs cope with the challenge of maintaining their epistemic and legal authority against the tensions generated by their hybrid structure. The discussion of hybrid authority is related to the problem of scientific uncertainty. I examine this theoretical argument drawing on an in-depth analysis of three RSIs that reflect the institutional diversity of the RSI network: the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the International Commission on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection and the European Committee of Homeopaths. I conclude with a discussion of some of the policy issues associated with the institutional design of RSIs. The policy discussion refers, first, to the risk posed by RSIs’ hybrid structure to their internal stability and, second, to some potential adverse social impacts that need to be considered alongside RSIs’ projected benefits.
Topic:
International Law, Science and Technology, Law, and Regulation
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

28178. Determining Customary International Law: The ICJ's Methodology between Induction, Deduction and Assertion

Author:
Stefan Talmon
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Abstract:
Methodology is probably not the strong point of the International Court of Justice or, indeed, of international law in general. Unlike its approach to methods of treaty interpretation, the Court has hardly ever stated its methodology for determining the existence, content and scope of the rules of customary international law that it applies. There are only isolated references in the Court’s jurisprudence to the inductive and deductive method of law determination. It is not only the Court itself that has largely remained silent on its methodology for the determination of customary international law, but the legal literature also has had little to say on this subject. In view of the fact that determining the law has also always meant developing, and ultimately creating, the law it is surprising that the question of the Court’s methodology has attracted such little interest. This article aims to refocus attention on the methodology used by the Court when determining the rules of customary international law that it applies, and it highlights the role played by methodology in the development of customary international law. It starts by defining the terms ‘induction’ and ‘deduction’ and examining their use by the Court. It then explores the situations in which the Court uses inductive and deductive reasoning, the different forms and functions of deduction and the relationship between the two methods. The article challenges the various theories distinguishing between inductive and deductive custom and demonstrates that the main method employed by the Court is neither induction nor deduction but, rather, assertion.
Topic:
International Law, Law, Legal Theory, and Courts
Political Geography:
Europe and The Hague

28179. State Formation, Liberal Reform and the Growth of International Organizations

Author:
Guy Fiti Sinclair
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Abstract:
This article argues that the growth of international organizations over the past century has been imagined and carried out in order to make modern states on a broadly Western model. The proliferation of international organizations and the expansion of their legal powers, through both formal and informal means, raise profound questions regarding the relationship between international law’s reforming promise and its imperialist perils. The article proposes a new analytic framework for understanding these phenomena, focusing on the rationalities of international organizations’ powers and the technologies through which they are made operable. It argues that both the growth of international organizations and the cultural processes of state formation are impelled by a dynamic of liberal reform that is at once internal and external to law. That dynamic and the analytic framework proposed here are both illustrated and exemplified through a critical account of the emergence of international organizations in the 19th century.
Topic:
Imperialism, International Law, International Organization, History, and State Formation
Political Geography:
Europe and United Nations

28180. Causation in the Law of State Responsibility and the Problem of Overdetermination: In Search of Clarity

Author:
Ilias Plakokefalos
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Abstract:
This article addresses the preliminary steps that must be taken in order to study the problems stemming from overdetermination in the law of state responsibility. Overdetermination, broadly defined, is the existence of multiple causes (multiple wrongdoers, external natural causes, contribution to the injury by the victim and so on) contributing towards a harmful outcome. As relationships among states become more and more complex, there is a corresponding increase in the complexity of the potentially harmful outcomes of these relationships. The fact that the harm caused may originate in diverse sources (overdetermination) poses challenges to the law of state responsibility. These challenges pertain to most aspects of state responsibility, yet their dimension regarding causality has not been studied in depth. The confusion surrounding causal analysis conducted by international adjudicatory bodies leads to decisions that are not convincing in their determination of responsibility in causal terms. The argument of the article is twofold. First, it holds that the concept of causation in international law is unclear, especially in relation to overdetermination, and it must be clarified. Second, it holds that a clearer concept of causation can provide useful guidance to the decision-making process of international courts and tribunals: the clear and principled application of causal tests will, in turn, lead to clearer reasoning. A clearer judicial reasoning will improve the foreseeability of the judicial outcome, will provide better guidance for the parties before a court and will lead to a fairer judicial process.
Topic:
International Relations, International Law, Legal Theory, and Courts
Political Geography:
Europe and The Hague