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1. European aid to the MENA region after the Arab uprisings: A window of opportunity missed

Author:
Thilo Bodenstein and Mark Furness
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
European official development assistance to Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries increased sharply after 2011, ostensibly in support of the social, economic, and above all political changes demanded by the Arab uprisings. The subsequent turn to development policies driven by security and anti-migration agendas, especially following the Syria refugee crisis in the autumn of 2015, raises the question whether initial expressions of support for democratic transformation expressed by European donors were ever backed by concrete measures. This paper discusses this question with an exploratory review of the policy and practice dimensions of four European MENA aid programmes between 2011 and 2016. The policy dimension is explored via an analysis of available documents from the EU, France, Germany, and the UK. The practice dimension is discussed with reference to OECD-DAC aid data on bilateral aid to MENA countries, focusing on aid in the social infrastructure and services sector, and in particular on the government and civil society sub-category. Our analysis reveals that, while all donors promised to support democracy in MENA countries, none had a clear strategy for doing so via their development cooperation. At the practice level, while programmes and projects were aimed at supporting change in specific contexts, increases in aid were mostly unrelated to political change. This indicates a preference for avoiding risks, which served to underpin the region’s political and socio-economic status quo. Accordingly, European donors missed an opportunity to test whether their aid could make a difference in supporting democratic transformation in the MENA. The social, economic, and political tensions behind the Arab uprisings remain unresolved more than a decade on, meaning that there is likely a need to learn lessons from the period following 2011.
Topic:
Development, Democracy, Arab Spring, and Development Assistance
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and North Africa

2. Deciphering Erdoğan's Regional Paradigm Shifts

Author:
Ofra Bengio
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In our latest issue of Turkeyscope, Professor Ofra Bengio analyses the trajectory of Turkish foreign and domestic policies by examining three paradigms in Erdogan's strategy since the early 2000s. In addition, we offer our sincere condolences to the victims of the earthquake last week.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Weapons, Arab Spring, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Industry, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, and Middle East

3. NRGI Impact: Knitting the Fabric of Civil Society Activism in Tunisia (2013-2020)

Author:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Tunisia is the only country to have accomplished a peaceful transition from authoritarianism after the Arab Spring uprisings, but its democratic gains are not yet entrenched. Tunisians have experienced persistent political instability and voter turnout has been waning—particularly among young people. The governance of extractive industries has influenced, and in turn been impacted, by both the prevailing political context and global dynamics. After the 2013 revolution, there was scant civil society capacity and limited focus on extractives, accompanied by low levels of trust of international partners. Tunisia’s oil and gas reserves are small compared to other resource-rich countries in the region. In addition, political instability and an uncompetitive fiscal regime led to a decline in foreign investment in the sector. As production and prices fell, oil and gas revenues dropped. In terms of mining, the country went from being the world’s fourth largest phosphate producer in 2010 to 20th in 2017. In 2020, amid the coronavirus pandemic, Tunisia resorted to importing phosphate. The production decline is due largely to recurring protests, particularly in the Gafsa phosphate mining basin, which led to regular mining stoppages. Local populations are frustrated because phosphate mining brings limited benefits, whether in terms of revenue, social spending by companies or employment opportunities. Similar dynamics prevail in the oilproducing region of Tataouine and other resource-producing areas. Political and institutional volatility has negatively impacted reform plans. The portfolio of the ministry in charge of extractive industries was modified or restructured five times and saw eight leadership changes between 2011 and 2016, including following corruption scandals. The ministry was restructured many time subsquently. These changes have contributed to faltering momentum and delayed reform. The pandemic has further exacerbated some of these challenges.
Topic:
Civil Society, Oil, Natural Resources, Gas, Arab Spring, and Activism
Political Geography:
North Africa and Tunisia

4. Civil Society & Political Transformations (Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy, Fall 2021)

Author:
Ghazi Ghazi
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Eleven years after the 2011 Arab Spring, feelings of transformation and change still reverberate throughout the region. The Spring 2022 edition, Civil Society and Political Transformations, seeks to illuminate how civil society organizations operate in the region and their effects on political transformations.
Topic:
Civil Society, Education, Human Rights, Migration, Politics, Race, History, Reform, Women, Constitution, Arab Spring, Syrian War, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Baath Party, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, South Asia, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Libya, Yemen, Palestine, North Africa, Syria, Jordan, Morocco, and United Arab Emirates

5. AlMostaqbal: Envisioning a Better Arab Future

Author:
American University in Cairo School of Global Affairs and Public Policy
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
An excerpt from the American University in Cairo’s blue-ribbon report, “AlMostaqbal: Envisioning a Better Arab Future”.
Topic:
Governance, Social Movement, Arab Spring, and Regionalism
Political Geography:
Africa and Middle East

6. Turkey as Normative Power: Connections with the Muslim Brotherhood during the Arab Spring

Author:
Beatrix Futak-Campbell and Hylke de Sauvage Nolting
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
The debate on normative power has mainly been focused on the European Union. This is partly owing to the fact that its conception is very Euro/Western centric. Yet, it is assumed that the concept is applicable to other actors. The aim of this paper therefore is to examine Turkey and whether its actions embody normative power in Syria and Egypt during the Arab Spring. It applies de Zutter’s four-step methodology of identifying normative power. The result is mixed. In the case of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, Turkey tried to be a normative power but failed, due to a lack of recognition. In the case of the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, Turkey was perceived as a normative power due to the combination of its Islamic identity, adherence to democracy, and the role of religion in its society. The implications of this are significant, since this paper demonstrates that normative power can travel outside of its Euro/Western centric context. At the same time, it also demonstrates that the norms are different and context specific.
Topic:
Religion, Social Movement, Arab Spring, Norms, and Identity
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and Egypt

7. Labor and Politics in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:
Dina Bishara, Ian Hartshorn, Marc Lynch, Samar Abdelmageed, and Ashley Anderson
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
Economic grievances were at the heart of the Arab uprisings which erupted a decade ago. The centrality of those grievances and the workers articulating them has led to a growing research community focused on organized labor in the Middle East and North Africa. In April 2021, Dina Bishara and Ian Hartshorn convened a virtual workshop through Cornell University’s School of Industrial and Labor Relations bringing together a wide range of scholars writing in the area. POMEPS then invited those participants, as well as others who had not presented papers, to participate in a follow-on workshop to continue the discussion in September 2021. The papers in this collection are one of the fruits of this increasingly robust scholarly network.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, Labor Issues, Employment, Regulation, Arab Spring, Youth, Protests, Unions, Higher Education, COVID-19, Gulf Cooperation Council, and Activism
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, North Africa, Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia, and Gulf Nations

8. A U-Turn in Israeli-Turkish Relations: The Fall of Ikhwanism and the Rise of the Abraham Accords

Author:
Gökhan Çınkara
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
This issue of Turkeyscope focuses on Israeli-Turkish relations. Dr. Gökhan Çınkara explains the current decline of Ikhwanism and the rise of the Abraham Accords and its possible impact on the Israeli-Turkish relations.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Arab Spring, Muslim Brotherhood, and Abraham Accords
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Israel

9. No Going Back: Activists Reflect a Decade After the Arab Spring

Author:
Roy Gutman
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
nterviews with thirteen activists reveal a deep sense of disappointment but also a shared conviction that a new reform movement will eventually rise and deliver lasting change to the region. Against the backdrop of simmering protests, endemic economic challenges, the continuing struggle to contain the Covid-19 pandemic, and fallout from the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, The Washington Institute has launched a series of policy papers to help guide the Biden administration’s approach on democracy, reform, human rights, and political change across the Middle East and North Africa. The series addresses a range of questions: How do changes in the region over the last decade affect the new administration’s approach to these issues? How should the administration best prepare for the “new normal” of protests in the region? What are the policy tools at America’s disposal, and how might they be improved upon? How can Washington turn much-needed attention to new areas of focus, such as corruption and public-sector reform? What does public opinion research tell us about what the region’s publics want in their countries—and from the United States? And where might enhanced U.S.-EU coordination play a constructive role? The proposed answers will assist policymakers in advancing opportunities for reform, preserving U.S. interests, and navigating Middle East realities in the context of America’s global priorities. In the third essay in the series, Pulitzer Prize–winning journalist Roy Gutman opens up the floor for prominent activists to share their observations and lessons learned a decade after the Arab Spring. With a focus on six countries—Bahrain, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Tunisia, and Yemen—this paper shows that despite widespread disappointment with the eventual results of the uprisings, the desire for change persists, the fear barrier has been broken, and hope prevails that a new generation of reformers will ultimately deliver lasting change to the region.
Topic:
Reform, Arab Spring, Protests, Civil Unrest, and Activism
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

10. Youth political participation in post-2011 Tunisia: Exploring the impact of the youth quota system through the prism of local municipal councillors

Author:
Malek Lakhal
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Introduced as way to induct youth into institutional politics, Tunisia modified its electoral code in 2014 to include a youth quota, with a mandatory representation of youth on electoral lists for local elections. In April-May 2018, Tunisia held elections for local councils, representing the first mandatory iteration of these youth quotas in practice. The mandatory character of the quotas has theoretically meant that a greater number of young people ran during these elections and are today participating in institutional politics at the local level. What has been the impact of these youth quotas in stimulating youth meaningful participation in the political process? To answer this question, the Arab Reform Initiative conducted in-depth qualitative interviews with ten young local councillors at the municipalities of Kasserine, Foussana, Medjez El Beb, Kairouan, Hajeb Laayoun,e and Chebika. The research sought to understand what distinguished these young councillors from the rest of their age cohort, and in particular to understand what factors led them to become active in the political realm. The research also sought to explore the impact of political socialization on them, as well as their own values and understandings of politics. Finally, the research explored the difficulties they have encountered or are still encountering as young councillors working in public institutions that are new to them. The research has found that primary and secondary socialization are behind youth’s political participation. Young councillors entered politics with the “help” of their primary socialization (family) and secondary socialization (civil society, volunteering, etc.); nonetheless, all of the councillors we met were solicited by older people in their environment (family, friends, professors) looking for young people to add to their list. In other words, none had initiated their own electoral bids, and only a couple were thinking of running for the elections before being solicited. The research has also found that for these young councillors, age difference and gender are perceived as sources of tension. Age difference among the councillors, as well as with the mayor, are perceived as having a negative impact on the youth’s work at the council. This age difference can also take the shape of an experience gap that plays to the detriment of young councillors, as many of the older councillors held the same positions during the Ben Ali era. Likewise, gender intersects negatively with age for young women councillors. Most women councillors noticed that older male councillors adopt certain attitudes to belittle them during the meetings. Moreover, they state that men tend to take advantage of women’s temporal and spatial limitations (their inability to stay out late at night or sit in men’s cafés, for instance) to take decisions in their absence. Yet, alliances based on age are difficult to create, and the only alliance formed was between three young women in Chebika. Despite the difficulties they encounter because of their age and gender, most councillors are gaining experience and self-confidence, leading them to consider running for re-election. Learning, understanding, and ultimately seeing one’s impact in the local environment have been raised as the most motivational aspects of being a councillor. Nonetheless, youth councillors still harbor distinct ideas regarding electoral politics: all of the councillors reject political parties, even those who ran under party banners. They see the “country’s interest” as their main political compass, yet some consider their mandate to be to fight against their region’s historical marginalization. Currently none of the councillors interviewed is affiliated to a political party, and most expressed clear rejection of parties. They perceive them as inefficient and detrimental to the “country’s interest” which held a central place in the councillor’s evaluation of the political landscape. Political parties were mainly depicted as going against the “nation’s interest,” a notion that transcended political affiliations, ideologies, or social class. The youth quota system thus appears to be efficient in inducting youth into institutional politics to the point where most of the councillors we met are considering renewing and deepening (as in running for legislative elections, for instance) their participation in the political landscape. However, the youth quota reaches a limit given the lack of diversity of the youth whose entrance it permitted. The quota opens the way to the most educated portions of youth, that is university graduates, but does not reach young people who left school early. Moreover, these young people have been for the most part socialized into politics through their family or through affiliations such as student unions and local NGOs. Given this, the youth quota – still in its nascent stage – has only a limited impact as it exclusively reaches young people who have predisposition for entering the political realm in the first place.
Topic:
Politics, Reform, Arab Spring, Youth, and Participation
Political Geography:
Africa and Tunisia

11. Tunisia’s Parliament: A Series of Post-Revolution Frustrations

Author:
Saida Ounissi
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Following the 25 July 2021 coup, Tunisia’s parliament has been the focus of President Kais Saied’s frustration and anger – not missing an opportunity in his speeches to point out that he speaks on behalf of the people when criticizing the parliament. This paper focuses on the logistics of the parliament’s everyday life to identify the multiple transformations of the parliamentary political landscape between imposed consensus and progressive fragmentation.
Topic:
Politics, Reform, Arab Spring, and Parliament
Political Geography:
Africa and Tunisia

12. Youth and the Future of Libya

Author:
Asma Khalifa
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
When young people took to the streets during the 2011 uprisings, they set in motion a shift in Libyan socio-economic dynamics that remains partially captured or understood. Chief among our collective blind spots are the consequences of war on young people that have had to survive through difficult circumstances. Building on discussions with Libyan youth, this paper sets out the obstacles to their political integration and puts forward what they see as priorities and recommendations for reconstruction and reconciliation in Libya.
Topic:
Reform, Arab Spring, Youth, and Youth Movement
Political Geography:
Africa and Libya

13. Q&A with CCAS Assistant Professor Killian Clarke

Author:
Vicki Valosik and Killian Clarke
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies
Abstract:
Last fall, CCAS was pleased to welcome our newest core faculty member, political scientist Dr. Killian Clarke. Assistant Professor Clarke’s research centers around protest, revolution, and regime change in the Middle East and beyond. He has written about the causes of Egypt’s 2011 revolution, protest and unrest in Syrian refugee camps, pro-democracy social movements in Egypt, and processes of democratization in the post-colonial world. His work has been published in the British Journal of Political Science, World Politics, Perspectives on Politics, Mediterranean Politics, and Comparative Politics. Dr. Clarke is currently writing a book on counterrevolution, which uses the case of Egypt’s 2013 coup and an original global dataset on counterrevolution to explain why some revolutionary governments are toppled by counterrevolutions whereas others go on to establish durable and long-lasting regimes. The graduate-level courses he is currently teaching for CCAS include “Comparative Politics of the Middle East” and “Revolutions in the Middle East.” Dr. Clarke earned his PhD from Princeton University and holds an MA in Middle Eastern Studies from NYU’s Hagop Kevorkian Center and a BA from Harvard University. Prior to joining CCAS, he was a Raphael Morrison Dorman Memorial Postdoctoral Fellow with the Weatherhead Scholars Program at Harvard University. He has kindly agreed to answer a few questions about his research and teaching.
Topic:
Arab Spring, Protests, Interview, and Counterrevolution
Political Geography:
Middle East, Syria, and Egypt

14. International Dimensions of Authoritarian Persistence in the MENA Region: Revisiting US Foreign Aid to Egypt in the post-2011 Arab Uprisings Era

Author:
Eman Ratrout and Nur Köprülü
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
The majority of studies that examine political liberalization and democratization in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region concentrate on internal factors such as Islamic or patriarchal culture, oil rents, socio-economic structures and patrimonialism. This article argues instead that external factors under the cloak of aid represent one of the main dynamics impeding democratic transformation in the region, and precisely supports authoritarian regime consolidation. In this regard, Egypt can be described as a case of authoritarian stability in the post-2011 Arab Uprisings era in which politics and stability rather than democratization and/ or development agenda have become the main motive behind donor decisions hitherto. In this article, Egypt has been selected as a case study to illuminate how the increased hopes and dividends of democratic transition from the Arab Uprisings can swiftly turn into upholding authoritarian rule.
Topic:
Foreign Aid, Hegemony, Authoritarianism, and Arab Spring
Political Geography:
Africa, Egypt, and MENA

15. A New Middle East

Author:
Yaakov Amidror
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Changing Israel’s relationship with Arab countries is vital for its regional legitimacy, but it is also in the best interests of the Arab world. Sunni Arab countries want relations with Israel to create a safer region and better tools to deal with the complex reality they face after the “Arab Spring,” in the face of Iranian aggression and American hesitancy.
Topic:
Democratization, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Religion, and Arab Spring
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

16. The declining influence of the European Union in its Southern Neighbourhood

Author:
Pierre Mirel
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Civil wars in Syria and Libya, endless conflicts in Palestine and Western Sahara, failed states such as Lebanon, authoritarian regimes in Egypt and Algeria, and recurrent migratory crises are all upheavals that have created a periphery of chaos in the European Union's southern neighbourhood. It is struggling to respond to it, from " Arab Springs " to authoritarian autumns, in the face of the geopolitics of Moscow, Ankara and Teheran, which are fuelling conflict. And all of this whilst dealing with ambiguous partners between Russia and the West. Regional integration initiatives have been forgotten, while Algiers and Rabat are engaged in an arms race. The spectacular, sudden emergence of China has marked the past decade and illegal immigration remains a contentious issue. The New Agenda for the Mediterranean, welcomed by the Council on 19 April 2021, proposes excellent cooperation measures. But it does not have the means to achieve its ambitions. And it fails to address the most vexing issues[1].
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Authoritarianism, European Union, Arab Spring, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Europe

17. DOES THE GLOBAL CONSENSUS ON APARTHEID IN SOUTH AFRICA HOLD CLUES FOR THE UYGHURS?

Author:
Maria Lotito
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:
A new report from the United Nations finds that China may have committed crimes against humanity in Xinjiang and that human rights violations are ongoing. The abuse flows from China’s “Strike Hard” campaign, executed to counter separatism and extremism, subjecting Uyghurs and other Turkic minorities to mass detentions, forced labor and sterilizations, cultural suppression, and surveillance. The report comes months after the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics, before which some governments sympathetic to the Uyghurs’ plight staged diplomatic boycotts, to little avail. The UN report, much like the Olympic boycotts, will change few minds. What does it take to generate intergovernmental consensus around broad-scale human rights violations? Such convergence, even upon opposition to egregious human rights abuse, is rare and difficult to achieve. This is because violating governments are skilled at subverting international human rights norms and onlooking states have many reasons to avoid acting. Abusive practices might be reframed as responsible policy, or covered up. Meanwhile, supposedly compliant governments contend with a panoply of bilateral interests, some incompatible with international norms.
Topic:
Apartheid, Human Rights, Arab Spring, Color Revolutions, Soviet Union, and Consensus
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, China, India, South Africa, and Iceland

18. Oman, Ten Years After the Arab Spring: The Evolution of State-Society Relations

Author:
Yasmina Abouzzohour
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Oman is often portrayed as an “oasis of peace” that is immune to dissent. In fact, this assertion is an oversimplification and this paper provides a more discerning analysis of the relationship between the regime and opposition actors – such as youth groups, industrial workers, and intellectuals – that have led contestations in the last decade. It overviews the Omani political context, highlights recent episodes of contestation, and examines how the regime successfully contained them. It argues that in the coming years, the regime is likely to face heightened discontent triggered by socioeconomic hardship and it will be essential for the authorities to open the political sphere and stop repressing free speech.
Topic:
Civil Society, Social Movement, Arab Spring, and Protests
Political Geography:
Oman and Gulf Nations

19. Why the Phrase “Arab Spring” Should be Retired

Author:
Sean David Hobbs
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
It’s time to stop using a Western-based concept ten years on from the events that began the Arab Uprisings.
Topic:
Social Movement, Arab Spring, Decolonization, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, and MENA

20. North Africa 2030: What the Future Holds for the Region

Author:
Karim Mezran and Armando Sanguini
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
More than ten years after the “Arab Spring”, the turmoil that swept across North Africa has taken many forms. But the Arab uprisings have also brought about a surprising amount of “more of the same”, as the problems that plagued the region have not gone away. This report, produced in collaboration between ISPI and the Atlantic Council, looks at the future of the region by asking: what will North Africa be in 2030? Which direction could the region as a whole, and specific countries, take? And what are the implications for Europe and the US?
Topic:
Development, Arab Spring, Future, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
North Africa