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2881. Western countries' sanctions offensive against Russia

Author:
Elżbieta Kaca and Tymon Pastucha
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
The renewed sanctions imposed by the US, the UK and the EU will reduce Russia's ability to finance its military operations by hitting the oil and gas sectors, which still generate around 25% of its budget revenue. The sanctions underscore the US's determination to force Russia to end its invasion of Ukraine. As a consequence, Russia's economic problems will worsen, and its economic and political influence abroad, including in certain EU countries, will diminish. However, the effectiveness of the restrictions will depend on how they are implemented by the US, how they are further tightened — especially against the Russian shadow fleet — and whether secondary sanctions are applied.
Topic:
Sanctions, European Union, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, United Kingdom, Europe, and United States of America

2882. China Trying to Strengthen Dialogue with India

Author:
Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
China sees India as its main rival in Asia. However, the Chinese authorities are maintaining a dialogue with the Indian government, recently even signalling a conciliatory attitude. In this way, they want to prevent an escalation in bilateral relations and try to influence India’s relations with the U.S. and the European Union in a way that is beneficial to China. Although China’s attempts to strengthen dialogue with India are tactical in nature, even a short-term improvement in bilateral relations poses a challenge for the EU. Attempts to reduce Europe’s dependence on China, in which India is to play an important role, are now in question.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
China, Europe, South Asia, India, Asia, and United States of America

2883. Has the War in the Gaza Strip Ended? Chances for Peace

Author:
Michał Wojnarowicz
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
Israel and Hamas have begun talks about ending the war, based on a plan presented by U.S. President Donald Trump. While the first phase—a ceasefire and the exchange of hostages and prisoners—is being implemented, further stages depend on concessions on strategic issues, primarily the disarmament of Hamas and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip. The parties are under greater pressure than before from external partners, as seen at the summit of leaders in Sharm el-Sheikh, which increases the chances of at least partial implementation of the peace plan.
Topic:
Disarmament, Donald Trump, Hamas, Ceasefire, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

2884. In Run-up to Parliamentary Elections, Moldova is Hovering between European Integration and the Unknown

Author:
Jakub Pieńkowski
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
The parliamentary elections scheduled for 28 September will have a decisive impact on Moldova’s continued efforts to integrate with the European Union. Russia has intensified its influence operations to manipulate the results and remove the pro-EU Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) from power. Poll results indicate that PAS may lose its majority, which would likely force it into an unstable minority government or a coalition with Eurosceptic or only nominally pro-Western parties.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, Regional Integration, and Parliament
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Moldova

2885. NATO and the EU Respond to Russian Maritime Sabotage

Author:
Filip Bryjka
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
Since October 2023, Russia has damaged 11 undersea cables and pipelines in the Baltic Sea. In response, NATO launched the Baltic Sentry mission, allies began inspecting tankers belonging to the “shadow fleet”, and the EU imposed sanctions on some of them. As a result, further incidents have been prevented since the beginning of 2025, but Russia is escalating the situation by using drones for provocations. NATO and EU countries should take more decisive action against the “shadow fleet” and strengthen cooperation with private operators of critical infrastructure.
Topic:
NATO, European Union, Maritime, Sabotage, Russia-Ukraine War, and Critical Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

2886. Kenyan Mission to Haiti Demonstrates Revival of African-Caribbean Cooperation

Author:
Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
On 2 October, the mandate of the Kenya-led stabilisation mission in Haiti will expire. Its undertaking was the clearest example of growing African-Caribbean cooperation. The two regions also intend to intensify economic cooperation, as well as work more closely together to obtain reparations for the colonial period, as indicated by participants at the second African Union (AU)-Caribbean Community (CARICOM) summit in Addis Ababa.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Economic Cooperation, African Union, Stabilization, and Caribbean Community (CARICOM)
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, Caribbean, and Haiti

2887. EU Cooperation with the International Criminal Court

Author:
Stefania Kolarz
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
For years, the EU has consistently supported the International Criminal Court (ICC), considering it one of the key elements in promoting human rights, humanitarian law and justice around the world. The uneven commitment of states to cooperation with the Court, successive decisions to denounce its Statute, and the sanctions imposed on the ICC by Donald Trump's administration are all hampering its functioning, but have not been met with a firm response from the EU.
Topic:
Human Rights, European Union, International Criminal Court (ICC), and International Humanitarian Law (IHL)
Political Geography:
Europe and United States of America

2888. China Launches the International Organisation for Mediation

Author:
Stefania Kolarz and Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
China is introducing the International Organisation for Mediation (IOMed), which became operational on 29 August, as a complement to the international dispute resolution system. In practice, it is another initiative to gather countries of the Global South around China and intended to be a counterweight to international institutions they consider to be dominated by Western countries.
Topic:
Global South, International Institutions, Dispute Resolution, and International Organization for Mediation (IOMed)
Political Geography:
China and Asia

2889. EU Clean Industry Deal: Strengthening Competitiveness in Green

Author:
Kinga Dudzińska
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
In the face of increasing trade pressure from the United States and growing competition from China, the European Union announced actions to rebuild the competitiveness of European industry, as included in the Clean Industry Deal (CID). Increasing the EU’s economic independence while maintaining ambitious climate goals will be a challenge for the industry, especially if electrification based on renewable sources is assumed. Therefore, solutions supporting the attractiveness to businesses of EU production will be decisive, including through efficient deregulation and reduction of energy prices and especially in view of the growing dynamics of changes in the structure of global markets. The EU’s flexible and adaptive approach to the energy transformation will be important here, in particular for countries still dependent on fossil sources, such as Poland.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, European Union, Industry, and Clean Industry Deal (CID)
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and United States of America

2890. Reforming the EU Energy Market to Increase Competitiveness and Resilience

Author:
Kinga Dudzińska
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
Intensifying tensions in global trade and China’s growing competitive advantage mean that the European Union faces an urgent need to provide more decisive support for the development of its own economy. The implementation of the electricity market reform (EMD), approved in May 2024, is of particular importance. It was initiated in response to the need to reduce energy prices, which directly impact, among other things, the investment attractiveness of the EU and its competitiveness. Maintaining energy market stability and subsidy guarantees may, however, make it difficult to achieve the EU’s ambitious climate goals, which the European Commission is even tightening.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, European Union, Electricity, Resilience, Economic Competition, and Energy Markets
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

2891. With Australia's General Election Settled, It is a Good Opportunity for Closer EU Engagement

Author:
Patryk Kugiel
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
The Labour Party’s victory in the 3 May general election guarantees a continuation of Australia’s foreign policy, including its continued support for Ukraine. Uncertainty in relations with the U.S. and ongoing tensions with China open up opportunities to bring Australia closer to European partners, including the EU. It is in the mutual interest of the two like-minded partners to swiftly complete the negotiation of a free trade agreement and enhance strategic and defence cooperation. It is also an opportunity to intensify the Polish-Australian political dialogue.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Elections, European Union, and Political Engagement
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Australia

2892. Authoritarianism On the Rise in Georgia

Author:
Stefania Kolarz and Wojciech Wojtasiewicz
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
The ruling Georgian Dream (GD) has continually pushed through legal changes to consolidate power. Among other things, Georgia’s mono-party parliament adopted a law on so-called foreign agents and introduced a requirement for government approval to fund non-governmental organisations (NGOs) with foreign grants. GD also announced the outlawing of the pro-Western opposition by the end of this year. In the following months, a tightening of the state’s authoritarian course is to be expected and therefore its further retreat from Euro-Atlantic cooperation.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Domestic Politics, NGOs, Parliament, and Georgian Dream Party
Political Geography:
Caucasus and Georgia

2893. China Cautious about Participation in UN Peacekeeping, also in Ukraine

Author:
Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
The Chinese contingent in UN peacekeeping operations is the largest among the permanent members of the Security Council. The deaths of Chinese soldiers on these missions, as well as the low effectiveness of some of the operations, have made China cautious about its involvement in further ventures and seeking to change their operational rules. Together with the general distrust of China by the Ukrainian authorities and European states because of its support for Russia, the experience with peacekeeping will significantly affect the Chinese calculations regarding the potential deployment of Chinese troops to Ukraine after a possible ceasefire.
Topic:
United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Ukraine, and Asia

2894. U.S. Prepares for a Nuclear Energy Renaissance

Author:
Tymon Pastucha
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
President Donald Trump’s announced “nuclear energy renaissance” is a response to the failure of previous reforms, growing energy demand (driven by AI), his lack of support for renewables, and the weakening U.S. technological position in nuclear energy relative to China and Russia. The changes would focus on reforming nuclear oversight, increasing the role of the Department of Defense, accelerating technology deployment, developing the nuclear workforce, and producing domestic nuclear fuel. Enhanced funding and assertive export diplomacy may encourage new investments in partner countries.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Energy Policy, Artificial Intelligence, Donald Trump, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2895. A Georgia Led by Georgian Dream Looks to the East

Author:
Wojciech Wojtasiewicz
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
Georgia’s international isolation has deepened since last year’s parliamentary elections in the country. European countries and the United States are introducing sanctions against the Georgian authorities for their ongoing repression of anti-government demonstrations and crackdown on NGOs, free media, and the opposition. With the retreat from cooperation with the U.S. and the EU, Georgia is increasingly more dependent on Russia and China.
Topic:
Elections, Protests, Repression, Parliament, and Georgian Dream Party
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Caucasus, Georgia, and United States of America

2896. Disinformation Actors Already Targeting AI

Author:
Tomasz Wójtowicz
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
Artificial intelligence (AI) is already widely used by spreaders of disinformation. While initially the greatest concern was the use of deepfakes, a growing threat is the manipulation of generative AI models, including by tampering with the datasets on which they are trained to get them to publish false or misleading content. Key to building resilience is securing datasets, strengthening moderation, and adapting EU and national regulations to new challenges.
Topic:
European Union, Artificial Intelligence, Resilience, Disinformation, and Generative Models
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

2897. Transparency portals in development cooperation: more effectiveness and better communication?

Author:
Heiner Janus and Tim Röthel
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Transparency portals in development cooperation serve two main functions: accountability to a specialist audience and communication with the wider public. In this policy brief, we conduct an international comparison to demonstrate how transparency portals could better fulfill these requirements. As part of a broader effectiveness agenda, donors are pursuing the goal of greater transparency. In line with this international agenda, transparency is intended to promote learning and improve predictability for partner countries, as well as combatting corruption and fulfilling accountability requirements. Taken together, these factors can contribute to greater development effectiveness. Donors also hope that their work will receive greater public support. By providing detailed information, experts will be better able to assess the quality of development projects. The aim is to initiate a process of learning and improvement, and to convince the general public that taxpayers' money is being used effectively. Citizens can use the portals to understand project content and develop their own views. However, current debates suggest a more complex dynamic. The “Bike Lanes in Peru” project caused a scandal in Germany. Against the backdrop of the closure of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), individual projects became politicized. Accordingly, transparency portals can also have unintended consequences. For example, information can be taken out of context, leading to misunderstandings and legitimate criticism of individual projects going unanswered. Donors can mitigate these negative effects by redesigning transparency portals. In times of declining approval ratings and cuts to development budgets, they should use the portals to communicate in a targeted manner and demonstrate a greater willingness to engage in honest debate. The following recommendations could help with this: • Even greater transparency of impact data: Although progress is being made in transparent reporting on project content and financial data, detailed project data on impact measurement and results, as set out in logical frameworks (logframes), is lacking. Increasing transparency in this area could improve development effectiveness. • Additional investment in communication: Information that is provided in accordance with internationally comparable standards must be translated for a lay audience. In many donor countries, a large proportion of the population has no fixed positive or negative attitude towards development cooperation. Targeted, group-oriented communication should appeal to these people more directly. • Openness to criticism and discourse: Development policy actors often resist critical examination of their work in public debate. They tend to respond defensively to criticism, whether general or specific. However, informed discussions based on project data from the portals offer an opportunity to openly discuss ineffective projects and, if necessary, replace them with effective ones.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, and Transparency
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2898. E-government tools, authoritarian propaganda, and regime support: experimental evidence from Turkey

Author:
Semuhi Sinanoglu and Armin von Schiller
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
How do e-government tools that enable direct online communication with the executive affect citizens' support for autocracy? On the one hand, such centralized digital government tools may sway public opinion in favor of strongman rule at the expense of autocratic institutions; on the other hand, such participation and responsiveness may unintentionally unveil a wide range of issues in the country, undermining trust in the regime. We examine an electronic platform in Turkey, CIMER, that allows citizens to submit petitions and complaints, send messages to the president, and propose policies and programs. We conducted a well-powered online survey experiment with a nationally representative sample (N≈4,600) that estimates the effects of different types of regime propaganda around this e-portal on attitudinal and quasi-behavioral outcomes. The results suggest that propaganda through CIMER improves diffuse support for the regime and generates behavioral compliance, even among opposition voters. However, these positive effects accrue to regime institutions rather than to Erdoğan personally as the executive's personalistic leader. On certain dimensions, the propaganda backfires among the regime's core support groups, eroding their perceptions of Erdoğan's popularity as a leader. These results have major implications for the expected downstream effects of these types of digital tools on regime stability and legitimacy, and they add to the growing warnings about holding overly optimistic views concerning the effects of digitalization on democracy.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Propaganda, Digitalization, and E-Government
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

2899. Social acceptance of social transfer policies: the role of climate vulnerabilities and policy design

Author:
Stefanie Roost
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
This paper examines how citizens in a large middle-income country evaluate the design of cash transfer programs, and whether these preferences shift when vulnerability is framed as climate-induced. Using a pre-registered online survey in Brazil, we combined a multi-attribute conjoint experiment with a climate information treatment. Respondents evaluated programs varying in benefit level, eligibility, conditionalities, implementing actor, payment schedule and financing. Support depends strongly on perceived fairness and financing choices. Expanding eligibility from extreme poverty to poverty substantially increases approval, while further expansion yields no additional gains. Conditionalities (in particular, empowering ones, such as financial training or health check-ups) increase support, whereas work requirements have heterogeneous effects across different social groups. Financing through personal income tax or cuts to existing programs enjoys lower levels of approval, while corporate taxation and subsidy reductions are more acceptable. Climate information modestly increases solidarity attitudes but does not eliminate underlying ideological divides. This study highlights how citizens update not only the extent but also the preferred form of redistribution under climate stress.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Poverty, and Cash Transfers
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, and Global Focus

2900. Should we be concerned about European competitiveness?

Author:
Olivier Perquel
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
At the end of the year 2025, all economic players agree that Europe's economic and financial situation is worrying, and that there are many issues at stake. However, it is no doubt worth trying to list them, by presenting a few figures, and highlighting some avenues for recovery, or a new start.
Topic:
Economics, European Union, Finance, and Productivity
Political Geography:
Europe