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2841. The Role of the Private Sector in Advancing Women, Peace and Security

Author:
Our Secure Future
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Our Secure Future
Abstract:
This policy brief examines the vital importance of the private sector's engagement with the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) agenda. Exploring the intersection of WPS and the private sector, this publication highlights policy frameworks for private sector engagement, women’s contributions to economic development, and the potential to achieve a greater global GDP when women fully participate in their nations' economies. The brief examines lessons learned and best practices for private sector participation and provides recommendations for private institutions on how to effectively collaborate with governments, civil society, and international organizations on an operational and strategic level to advance WPS.
Topic:
Economy, Private Sector, Participation, Women, Peace, and and Security (WPS)
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2842. The International Politics of Renewable Energy and Regeneration in the Context of Climate Adaptation and Mitigation: Prospects and Challengs for Africa

Author:
Kenneth Chukwuemeka Nwoko
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
Africa is at a critical intersection in the broader global struggle against climate change, as well as in efforts to adapt to its impact. On the one hand, the continent has contributed least to greenhouse gas emissions and carbon pollution relative to its size and population. On the other hand, it stands at the forefront of the devastating impacts of climate change: from the inten-sifying desertification of the Sahel and Southern Africa to droughts and extreme weather in East Africa, as well as rising sea levels undermining coastal cities such as Lagos and Accra. These woes are compounded by a host of pressures that threaten local ecosystems and the ability of communities to adapt to the changing environment, including land grabs, and extractive and colonial resource exploitation. Unfortunately, the current approaches to the international politics surrounding climate change do not equitably address the needs of African nation-states or the continent’s people (Grimaldi 2018).Taking the ideas of regeneration and renewability as a starting point, energy production and consumption represents one of the most significant global political challenges, as well as opportunities. For African nation-states, questions about how to address energy poverty — a condition that afflicts 600 million people on the continent — while rapidly industrialising are paramount. Nevertheless, the international politics of renewable energy is crucial beyond Africa’s borders, with geopolitical implications fermenting across the globe. Renewable energy resources and technologies could reshape power in Africa. Where colonialism and postcolonial approaches to extraction empla-ced power in largely exogenous metropolitan cities, the continent possesses significant renewable energy resources — onshore wind, offshore wind, solar, hydropower, and geothermal — that, if developed in sovereignty and directed towards the needs of local populations, could address energy poverty and foster local industrialisation. However, addressing climate change and, more broadly, moving towards sustainable production and consumption requires excavation beyond Africa’s borders. Thus, there is a need to investigate the international politics of renewable energy, with Africa at the centre. To do this, three research questions are posed: 1) What are the essential policies and regulatory frameworks for enabling renewable energy initiatives in Africa? 2) What are the prospects concerning renewable energy implementation and regeneration in Africa, and what barriers are encountered? 3) What should be considered in the international politics of renewable energy initiatives, espe-cially regarding developing and emerging countries, particularly in Africa?
Topic:
Climate Change, Renewable Energy, Adaptation, International Politics, and Mitigation
Political Geography:
Africa

2843. Borders Without Belonging: Statelessness, Displacement, and Human Insecurity in Post-Handover Bakassi

Author:
Seun Bamidele
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
The Bakassi Peninsula conflict remains one of the most complex and enduring examples of postcolonial territorial disputes in Africa, rai-sing urgent questions about legal sovereignty, resource control, and human security. Originally situated within the fluid and often contested borders of colonial cartography, Bakassi was subject to shifting territorial claims by Nigeria and Cameroon, a conflict that culminated in the 2002 International Court of Justice (ICJ) judgment awarding the peninsula to Cameroon (ICJ 2002a; 2002b). While hailed internationally as a triumph of legal diplomacy and pacific settlement (International Peace Institute 2008; United Nations 2008), the ruling and its aftermath exposed the severe disjuncture between international law and local realities, particularly for Bakassi’s inhabitants who faced statelessness, displacement, and legal ambiguity (Odinkalu 2012; Hussain 2023; Oyewo 2021).The existing scholarship on the Bakassi conflict has primarily focused on its geopolitical and legal dimensions, particularly the role of the ICJ in adjudicating territorial disputes and enforcing treaty obligations between sta-tes (Bonchuk 2014; Ezeilo 2010; Nwoko 2015). Other studies have examined Nigeria–Cameroon bilateral relations, the role of natural resources in fueling the conflict, and the enforcement challenges of international decisions (Hart 2022; Ebolo 2022; Egeran 2015). While these contributions are valuable, they tend to adopt a state-centric lens that overlooks the lived experiences of affected populations, particularly in relation to citizenship, displacement, and social exclusion.This study departs from such frameworks by foregrounding the human consequences of legal diplomacy, particularly the emergence of pos-tcolonial statelessness and the marginalization of displaced persons. It builds on, but also critiques, literature that under-theorizes the link between inter-national legal processes and everyday governance failures in borderlands.
Topic:
Displacement, Borders, Human Security, Statelessness, and Insecurity
Political Geography:
Africa, Nigeria, Cameroon, and Bakassi Peninsula

2844. Obstructed Paths to Justice: Land Grabbing and the Crisis of Reconciliation in Central Nigeria's Postcolonial Conflicts

Author:
Gloria Longbaam-Alli
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
Proudly referred to as the “Food Basket of the Nation,” Central Nigeria was once regarded as a tranquil region, largely insulated from the ethno--religious conflicts prevalent in Northern Nigeria. Historical and colonial legacies from the pre-colonial era allowed farming communities in Plateau and Benue to coexist alongside Fulani pastoralists. When conflicts arose, traditional conflict resolution systems were employed. However, British indi-rect rule facilitated the political dominance of the Hausa-Fulani elite over minority groups in Central Nigeria. Land policies favoured “settlers,” such as the Hausa-Fulani, while marginalising “indigenes,” thus creating admi-nistrative hierarchies that fostered enduring resentment (Madueke 2018; Logams 2004; Ochonu 2014)Post-independence, relations among minority groups that rallied under the “Middle-Belt” identity emerged as a form of resistance to Hausa--Fulani control. The foundations of identity politics established during the colonial period, along with the weaponisation of historical grievances, have been utilised over the years to justify violence and clashes involving herders and farmers. For instance, land conflicts between Fulani pastoralists and far-ming communities in Central Nigeria have recently intensified, resulting in cyclical violence and hindering reconciliation efforts. This study explores the critical role of unresolved land grabs in perpetuating farmer-herder clashes and obstructing sustainable peacebuilding in the region. Between 2010 and 2022, ethno-religious tensions, cultural disputes, and land conflicts between Fulani Muslim pastoralists or agro-pastoralist settlers and Indigenous Chris-tian farmers have had a devastating impact, leading to numerous fatalities (Nigeria Watch 2021).
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Reconciliation, Armed Conflict, and Post-Colonial
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

2845. Mexico: A Pivotal State on the Global Stage

Author:
Ryan C. Berg, Rubi Biedsoe, and Michael Ferguson
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
In his 1867 Manifesto to the Nation, Benito Juárez famously stated: “Among individuals, as among nations, respect for the rights of others is peace.”1 Spoken by Mexico’s first indigenous president, Juárez’s quote demonstrates Mexico’s view of the global order—that countries should promote national sovereignty, security, and prosperity through collaboration and dialogue rather than through intervention. Mexico effectively operates with one foot in the door of the Global North, via its position in North America, and one foot in the door of the Global South, as one of the leading economies and cultural powerhouses of Latin America. This hybrid role, characterized by some as a “pivotal state,” has created both opportunities for leverage and areas of tension with other countries, particularly with regards to its close but complicated relationship with its northern neighbor.2 A key player and beneficiary of a global economy underpinned by a U.S.-led order, Mexico has found itself in a state of “autonomy within limits,” by which U.S. interests oftentimes circumscribe Mexico’s range of potential actions.3 Being the United States’ southern neighbor both grants Mexico unmatched economic benefits and presents it with a delicate balancing act: In pursuing autonomy within limits, Mexico must maximize its benefits from the Western-led order while asserting its sovereignty and reducing its dependence on the order’s biggest players, especially the United States. This tension influences Mexico’s policy positions as its presidents balance nationalistic rhetoric at home and trying to assuage U.S. concerns. Mexico’s balancing act also exacerbates divisions between the country’s pro–Global North elites and its disadvantaged populations who have not received the benefits of global economic integration, which has led to the success of the social welfare and populist-oriented Morena party. Mexico’s effort to maintain relations with its neighbor to the north consumes most of its foreign policy energy. But Mexico’s foreign policy DNA, often described as noninterventionism or the Estrada Doctrine (after Foreign Affairs Minister Genaro Estrada), can sometimes undercut its desire to play a leadership role on the global stage. Mexico firmly believes that nonintervention in the internal affairs of other countries can earn it a seat at the tables that matter, allowing it to negotiate or mediate conflicts. In practice, however, Mexico has demonstrated little global leadership of late, preferring to stay on the sidelines (and under President Lopez Obrador, to focus on his project of domestic transformation). Mexico’s ultimate goal is to exert full sovereignty over its domestic affairs; it has also used its political capital on the global stage to openly criticize the role of U.S. sanctions and containment policies against Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela for contributing the region’s security and migration crises. Further, Mexico does not see the world through the West’s post–Cold War lens, but rather as a group of politically equal states. China and Russia are treated as normal states in the international system the same way Algeria, Ethiopia, or Thailand might be.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Geopolitics, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Latin America, North America, and Mexico

2846. The United Arab Emirates: From Footnote to Sophisticated Global Partner

Author:
Jon B. Alterman
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Vladimir Putin bounded down two dozen steps from his presidential plane on the morning of December 6, 2023. It must have felt good to be on the road again. An International Criminal Court indictment following his invasion of Ukraine had limited his international travel to former Soviet states, China, and Iran—but now, he seemed free. While world leaders were focused on the COP28 conference in Dubai, Putin—escorted by four Su-35 fighter jets—arrived in Abu Dhabi to a hero’s welcome. Lampposts were draped with Russian and Emirati flags. His limousine rolled past Bedouin guards and their camels lining the right side of the road, while mounted cavalry bearing Russian flags lined the left. The seven jets of the UAE Air Force’s acrobatic team streaked overhead, their colored smoke painting the Russian tricolor across the skies of the Emirati capital. The onward trip to Saudi Arabia for a few hours that evening almost felt like an anticlimax. For nearly two decades, the leadership of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has spared no effort in portraying itself as an essential Middle East partner to the United States, a beacon of moderation, and a catalyst for regional transformation. The push had its origins in crisis: two of the 9/11 hijackers were Emirati, leaving behind distrust among some in Congress and the American security establishment. The Emirati leadership confronted those perceptions head-on, skillfully courting U.S. government officials, senior military officers, and opinion leaders over the years. They judged that success in Washington was impossible if Israel and the UAE were at loggerheads, so outreach extended to the American Jewish community and included many years of quiet conversations with Israeli officials, culminating in U.S.-brokered diplomatic recognition in 2020. The Emirati goal with each successive U.S. president, it seemed, was to be considered America’s favorite Arab state. That effort was largely a success. For many in Washington and across the United States, the UAE became a model for the Middle East. And yet, as the Biden administration sought to rally the world after February 2022 to defend Ukraine and isolate Russia, the UAE remained circumspect. Distrustful of ideology in all its forms, the Emirati leadership viewed their country as a global entrepôt that had earned the right to flourish outside of political blocs. They saw no contradiction between being a close friend of the United States and entering into a “comprehensive strategic partnership” with China in 2018. When Russian capital (and capitalists) sought a place to land after Ukraine-related sanctions slammed Russia in 2022, Emiratis welcomed both. Emirati officials touted their success in negotiating the exchange of hundreds of Russian and Ukrainian prisoners of war. They simultaneously deepened economic ties with both Ukraine and Russia. The UAE, they argued, was a more valuable friend when it maintained relationships with all. They would not choose—in part, because they judged they did not have to.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Global South, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Middle East and United Arab Emirates

2847. India’s Future Strategic Choices: Complications of Mass

Author:
Richard M. Rossow
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Leading up to the 2023 G20 summit in New Delhi, the Indian government put up billboards of Prime Minister Narendra Modi across the city. By one count, there were almost 1,000 signs and banners in the 12-kilometer stretch between the airport and U.S. President Joe Biden’s hotel highlighting India’s accomplishments, aspirations, and vision under Modi’s leadership.1 When asked about the billboards, India’s G20 coordinator responded, “We haven’t done advertising. We’re doing branding.”2 But this branding exercise was not merely intended to highlight India’s leadership role in a major international summit; it also sought to assert India’s leadership among the G20 countries that are less wealthy but large and fast growing. Quite purposively, India gathered more than 100 countries for the Voice of the Global South Summit the week before the G20 summit, where Modi declared the importance for India of “voicing the concerns of the Global South on the agenda of a significant platform like G-20.”3 As the concept of a coalition of Global South countries has emerged in recent years, India’s efforts to bolster its own brand as the vanguard of the Global South have accelerated. But India’s response to a new international order reflects an old strategy. In March 1947, on the eve of Indian independence, India hosted the first Asian Relations Conference, bringing together a diverse range of countries, including China, Indonesia, Egypt and the Arab League, Australia, and many of the Soviet republics. India hosted the conference during a period of geopolitical transformation, as countries around the world grappled with the aftermath of World War II and an emerging process of decolonization. Jawaharlal Nehru, then vice president of the Viceroy’s Executive Council, described the moment of the conference as an “age of transition.” He argued, “One of the notable consequences of the European domination of Asia has been the isolation of the countries of Asia from one another,” but “as that domination goes, the walls that surrounded us fall down and we look at each other again and meet as old friends long parted.”4
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, and India

2848. The Weight of History and Alliances in South Africa’s Geopolitical Turbulence

Author:
Mvemba Phezo Dizolele, Cameron Hudson, Khasai Makhulo, and Catherine Nzuki
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
On his first visit to the United States in June 1990 following his release from Robben Island prison, Nelson Mandela spoke at a townhall meeting at the City College of New York.1 During the event, Jewish community leaders confronted Mandela twice over the closeness of the African National Congress (ANC) and the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO). According to these leaders, Mandela had met with Yasser Arafat, whom he had praised three times over six months after his release from prison. Additionally, they claimed Mandela had told Muammar Gaddafi that he shared his views and applauded Gaddafi on his record on human rights and his drive for freedom and peace around the world. Mandela had also praised Fidel Castro as a leader of human rights. The Jewish community leaders asked that Mandela denounce and distance himself from these leaders. Mandela pushed back. “One of the mistakes, which some political analysts make,” he said, “is to think that their enemies should be our enemies. That, we can and will never do.” He went on to explain that the ANC had its own struggles and was grateful to the world for supporting it. Nevertheless, it was an independent organization with its own policy. The ANC’s attitude toward any country was determined by the attitude of that country toward their struggle. “Yasser Arafat, Colonel Gaddafi and Fidel Castro support our struggle to the hilt,” Mandela continued. “There is no reason whatsoever why we should have any hesitation about hailing their commitment to human rights as they are demanding in South Africa.” He went on to say that the ANC identified with the PLO because, like the ANC, they were fighting for the right to self-determination. “The ANC, however,” he further explained, “has never doubted the right of Israel to exist legally.”2
Topic:
Geopolitics, Economy, Alliance, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

2849. Striving for Seriousness: Brazil’s Inclusion and Exclusion from the World Order

Author:
Ryan C. Berg, Henry Ziemer, and Luke Maloney
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Unlike other significant actors in the Global South, the genesis of Brazil’s grievances is not principally the country’s colonial past, but rather its presence at the founding of the rules-based international order. In other words, Brazil is motivated less by mistreatment than by a sense of not being given its due. In 1942, Brazil officially entered World War II on the side of the Allied powers, serving as the only independent country in South America to join the war effort. Perhaps most notably, Brazil deployed a significant expeditionary force to the Italian campaign: a force which numbered around 25,000 soldiers directly under U.S. command.1 However, Brazil’s expeditionary force deployed on the Italian front in September 1944 and left in May 1945—arriving too late and heading home too early. As a result, Brazil did not secure a significant role for itself in the formation of the postwar international order. This ran counter to Brazilian expectations—and, it should be noted, to American promises. At a meeting in February 1943 between Franklin D. Roosevelt and President Getúlio Vargas in Natal, the U.S. president told his Brazilian counterpart that he wanted him at his side during the postwar settlements to reorganize the world.2 Instead, Brazil did not play a large role in the postwar peace conference or in the founding of the Bretton Woods institutions. The spoils that were to accrue to Brazil from fighting on the right side failed to materialize.
Topic:
Economics, Strategic Competition, International Order, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

2850. Strategic Ambiguity: Erdoğan’s Turkey in a Multipolar World

Author:
Jeffrey Mankoff and Max Bergmann
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Finland and Sweden made the historic decision to seek membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). While Washington greeted this decision as an opportunity to strengthen the alliance and reinforce Russia’s strategic miscalculation in starting the war, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan saw Finland’s and Sweden’s membership aspirations as an opportunity to seek concessions over arms sales, Turkey’s pursuit of membership in the European Union, and Stockholm’s perceived sympathy for Kurdish militants. After signing off on Finland’s membership in March 2023, Turkey only approved Swedish membership in January 2024 after Sweden approved new counterterrorism legislation—and after the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden agreed to sell Turkey modernized F-16 fighter jets. The saga over Finland and Sweden joining NATO demonstrates how Turkey straddles multiple worlds. It is at once part of the West—a NATO member and an EU candidate country—and part of the Middle East, an integral player across the region stretching from Libya to Afghanistan. It is also a member of the Global South that practices familiar hedging strategies toward the West, engages constructively with Russia and China, and does not hesitate to pursue foreign policy goals counter to the interests of its most important treaty ally, the United States.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Strategic Competition, Multipolarity, and Strategic Ambiguity
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

2851. Rebuilding U.S. Zinc Capacity in an Era of Global Competition

Author:
Gracelin Baskaran and Meredith Schwartz
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Zinc ranks as the fourth-most widely used metal worldwide. In addition to its primary application in steel galvanization, refin­ing zinc also produces gallium and germanium—key inputs for advanced semiconductors and defense technologies. However, amid falling ore grades and limited exploration, the United States remains heavily dependent on zinc imports. Once a global hub for zinc processing, the United States now lacks sufficient refining capacity, importing over 70 percent of its refined zinc. There is an opportunity to rebuild domestic, vertically integrated zinc supply chains and reduce reliance on China, but this will demand deliberate action. Bolstering U.S. resilience will require scaling up domestic mining and refining, strategically deploying tariffs, encouraging private investment, promoting price stability, and deepening partnerships with allied nations.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Trade, Strategic Competition, Industry, Economic Security, Energy, Critical Minerals, and Zinc
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2852. Syria’s Promise and Challenges One Year After Assad’s Fall

Author:
Mona Yacoubian and Will Todman
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
One year after the collapse of the Assad regime, the fate of Syria’s transition lies between the promise spurred by the Syrian people’s resilience and the enormous challenges posed by years of devastating conflict and decades of authoritarianism. The window for a successful transition is not open-ended. To succeed, the transition government must prioritize efforts to mitigate sectarian tensions, expand governance authority beyond interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s tight-knit circle, and double down on building domestic credibility. External stakeholders—especially the Gulf—have a critical role to play by insisting that aid and investment efforts are transparent, technically sound, and well-coordinated.
Topic:
Sectarianism, Authoritarianism, Syrian War, Bashar al-Assad, and Post-Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

2853. Building peace through connectivity: how can the European Union support the TRIPP?

Author:
Agha Bayramov
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP)
Abstract:
On 8 August 2025, Armenia and Azerbaijan reached a significant diplomatic milestone when US President Donald Trump hosted the leaders of both countries at the White House for the signing of a landmark joint declaration. This trilateral agreement represents an important step toward resolving the region’s most protracted conflict. At its core lies the TRIPP, a US-facilitated connectivity initiative designed to establish a 43-kilometre route through Armenian territory linking mainland Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave. If fully implemented the TRIPP project could help dismantle longstanding barriers to trade and mobility between Armenia and Azerbaijan and across the South Caucasus. Since the signing of the TRIPP agreement the region has witnessed the first tangible signs of renewed transit cooperation. In November 2025, wheat shipments from Kazakhstan and Russia reached Armenia via Azerbaijan for the first time in nearly three decades, signalling the practical reopening of regional corridors. Azerbaijan is now preparing to deliver an initial batch of fuel to Armenia via Georgia. These early movements – modest in scale but symbolically significant – demonstrate that the commitments linked to TRIPP are beginning to translate into operational reality. For Armenia and Azerbaijan, they represent initial confidence-building steps; for external partners they offer an early indication that the regional environment is shifting from conflict management toward cautious re-engagement. For the EU, the implications are far from straightforward. This development presents both opportunities and strategic dilemmas. As Washington reasserts its diplomatic role and Moscow’s and Tehran’s influence potentially wanes, Brussels must decide how to position itself in this changing context. This policy brief explores why the TRIPP matters for the EU, how the EU can best contribute its expertise, and what tools and measures it can mobilise to support the development of the TRIPP in alignment with its own strategic and economic interests. The brief addresses these questions by presenting five actionable policy recommendations on how the EU can support the TRIPP as a transformative instrument for peacebuilding, economic integration and long term-stability in the South Caucasus. It is important to note that any meaningful EU engagement depends on the consent of the US, Armenia and Azerbaijan. Brussels can position itself as a supportive partner and intervene only where its involvement is explicitly welcomed by the parties.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Europe, Armenia, and Azerbaijan

2854. Algorithmic North: Weather, Security and International Law

Author:
Amanda H. Lynch and Charles H. Norchi
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP)
Abstract:
Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) technologies are reshaping core practices and infrastructure worldwide, but in the Arctic, this transformation is not merely disruptive – it is decisive. The region is at once climatically unstable, geopolitically conested and operationally fragile. Accurate weather, water, and climate (WWC) services form the backbone of safety, mobility, and sovereignty in the High North. As Arctic stakeholders turn increasingly to AI/ML to enhance decision-making support, they are rapidly building dependencies on systems in an institutional vacuum. In a region where the margin for error is slim and the consequences of failure severe, these shifts demand urgent policy attention. At the same time, international law is struggling to keep pace. No treaty regime governs algorithmic decision-making in the Arctic, and the patchwork of relevant norms were not designed for this convergence of technical innovation, commercial incentives, and environmental exigency. This Policy Brief situates the algorithmic transformation of Arctic WWC services within its broader legal and security context. It concludes by outlining three domains for policy intervention: international organisations, international law and international security.
Topic:
Security, International Law, Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Weather
Political Geography:
Arctic

2855. A Global Policy Perspective on Offensive Cyberspace Operations

Author:
Gazmend Huskaj
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP)
Abstract:
Over the past decade, offensive cyberspace operations have expanded rapidly and reshaped international security. Once limited to a few major powers, currently dozens of states and some non-state actors possess these capabilities, reflecting the normalisation of cyberspace offensive capacity across the international system. This diffusion erodes the boundary between peace and conflict and complicates deterrence by introducing ambiguity, shortened decision cycles, and a higher risk of miscalculation. At a time of increasing geopolitical competition, understanding how to manage the global spread of offensive cyberspace capabilities is vital to sustaining strategic stability and preventing the escalation of cyberspace-related crises. This policy brief therefore asks how states can reduce the risks of miscalculation and escalation while preserving stability and international norms in cyberspace. It argues that stability can be strengthened through greater transparency, stronger legal and normative frameworks, and practical multistakeholder cooperation. The brief proceeds by tracing the diffusion of offensive cyberspace operations, analysing escalation dynamics, examining policy and legal gaps, and concluding with recommendations for global cooperation.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Geopolitics, Norms, Strategic Competition, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2856. Why deterrence needs dialogue and détente

Author:
Thomas Greminger
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP)
Abstract:
Since at least the time of the Greeks and the Romans it has been conventional wisdom that if you want peace prepare for war. Strong defences, military capabilities and demonstrating resolve can deter an enemy that might have thoughts of attack. American presidents from George Washington to Ronald Reagan (and even Donald Trump) have promoted the security benefits of “peace through strength”. Such logic will no doubt dominate security doctrines for the foreseeable future. But paradoxically, pure deterrence can be potentially destabilizing. Lack of communication with opponents can deepen distrust, create misperceptions and increase the risk of miscalculation. Therefore, at a time of high tensions in international relations, it is vital to retain some aspects of dialogue and détente if deterrence is to be credible and effective.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Deterrence, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
United States of America

2857. Climate Ambition and Electricity Affordability: Lessons from Connecticut

Author:
Noah Kaufman
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
Rising electricity prices are an obstacle to climate action in many US states. Continuing to pursue ambitious decarbonization goals while ensuring affordable electricity to residents and businesses will require bold policy shifts, with solutions that differ across regions. This report explores specific challenges to decarbonization and electricity affordability in Connecticut, as well as opportunities to decarbonize more affordably. Connecticut has among the highest electricity prices in the nation and a binding commitment to achieve 100 percent zero-carbon electricity by 2040.
Topic:
Climate Change, Electricity, Decarbonization, and Energy
Political Geography:
North America, United States of America, and Connecticut

2858. Purple Rain: Temperamental Politics and Budgets in Arizona

Author:
Max Goshert, Janica Murphy, Samira Amin, Mo Abouelenin, and Amber Chisholm
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
Arizona’s evolving political landscape has become a key factor in its fiscal outlook. Once a solid Republican stronghold, the state has shifted to swing status, as seen in President Joe Biden's narrow 0.3% margin win in the 2020 election and a closely divided state legislature. Strong economic growth in prior years led to FY23 General Fund revenues being revised upwards from $15.9 billion to $17.9 billion. Despite this, declining tax revenues and increased spending, particularly on a universal school voucher program, created a projected $1.71 billion deficit for FY25. The state's Republican-led legislature implemented a 2.5% flat income tax and expanded school vouchers, significantly impacting revenue. To address the deficit, the FY25 budget, finalized at $16.8 billion, included cuts to many programs, most notably a $430 million reduction in the Arizona Water Infrastructure and Financing Authority. The political status quo remained consistent after the 2024 election, where Republicans won a marginal gain in both chambers of the state legislature, Democrats kept control of the U.S. Senate seat up for reelection, and the U.S. House seats remained at 6–3 for Republicans and Democrats, respectively. This report examines the fiscal trajectory, proposed tax policy changes, and political state driving Arizona’s FY25 budget negotiations.
Topic:
Politics, Budget, Fiscal Policy, and State Legislature
Political Geography:
North America, Arizona, and United States of America

2859. Oregon’s 2024 Legislative Session and Budget: From Incivility to Civility

Author:
Brent S. Steel and Emily Mooney
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
The 2024 Oregon legislative session, spanning a concise 35-day period, marked a return to bipartisan collaboration resulting in significant policy advancements. Major reforms enacted include the implementation of campaign finance limits, modifications to drug decriminalization policies, and the introduction of a substantial housing initiative by Governor Tina Kotek. These actions stand in contrast to the previous year's divisive Republican walkout, which had halted legislative proceedings in protest against proposed bills on gun control, education, and climate change. This walkout led to a new ballot measure that penalized unexcused absences among legislators, threatening the ability of boycotting members to run for re-election. Despite the prior tensions, the 2024 session was distinguished by cooperation, as evidenced by both parties acknowledging its historic success in achieving policy goals. The budget passed on June 25, 2023, outlined a total of $121.264 billion for the 2023-25 period, reflecting a decrease from the previous budget due to a reduction in Federal Funds, counterbalanced by an increase in the General Fund and Lottery Funds. Detailed resource allocations were influenced by the May 2023 revenue forecast, with specific adjustments made during the 2024 session to align with the biennium's objectives.
Topic:
Reform, Budget, Public Policy, Polarization, and State Legislature
Political Geography:
North America, United States of America, and Oregon

2860. The 2023 Nevada Budget: Record Surpluses, Cautious Optimism, and Bipartisan Support for K-12 Education and State Employees

Author:
Brad Johnson and David Damore
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
In June of 2023, the Nevada Legislature passed the state’s 2023-2025 budget. Buoyed by continued increases in the state’s share of the sales taxes and revenue tied to gaming, entertainment, and tourism as well as business activity, the $10.9 billion general fund budget was the largest in Nevada’s history. After four years of unified Democratic control of state government, the 2023 session was the first budget passed under divided government since 2017. While partisan and interbranch tensions were ever present as evidenced by a record 75 vetoed bills, Nevada’s Republican governor and Democratic-controlled legislature supported substantial investments in K-12 education and state employees. Enthusiasm for long-term spending obligations, however, was tempered by the fact that the general fund budget’s two largest revenue drivers—sales and gaming taxes—fluctuate with macroeconomic conditions. The continued reliance on these revenue sources perpetuates Nevada’s history of booms and busts and undermines the state’s ability to make long-term investments in its human capital and physical infrastructure. Consequently, the budget choices adopted by the governor and legislature reflected broad compromises and investments, while other areas, including costly but much needed reforms to state government, went unaddressed.
Topic:
Education, Government, Budget, and State Legislature
Political Geography:
North America, United States of America, and Nevada