Publication Year: within 1 Year and within 25 Years

3451. Proposals for Reducing the Size and Cost of Running Government

Author:: Kojo P. Asante and David Asante Darko
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Ghana Center for Democratic Development
Abstract:: This paper explores the prospect of saving the country much-needed revenue by reducing the number of ministries and ministers in government and exactly how this may be achieved. It is an uncomfortable fact that the current sovereign debt crisis in Ghana, the worst in the country since the year 2000, has visited severe economic hardship on the cizens. For 18 months beginning June, 2021, year-on-year rates of inflaon in the country have risen consistently, going from 40.4% in October, 2022, to 50.3% in November, 2022, and finally to 54.1% for December, 2022, according to the Ghana Stascal Service. This has highlighted the urgency of prudent management and fiscal discipline by the country's economic managers. In a situaon where the country's access to capital markets are closed, expenditure cuts are inevitable and the government must lead by example.
Topic:: Government, Reform, Public Spending, and Debt Crisis
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

3452. Burkina Faso’s Prolonged Transition: Failed Promises and Governance Shortcomings

Author:: Emmanuel Yeboah
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Ghana Center for Democratic Development
Abstract:: July 2024 was expected to mark the end of Burkina Faso's transion back to civilian rule, with a presidenal elecon intended to restore constuonal order aer two years of polical uncertainty. However, as many had ancipated, worsening security situaon, coupled with other challenges would become a pretext for the junta to consolidate its hold on power. On September 29, 2023, Captain Ibrahim Traoré, the junta leader, declared that the scheduled elecons in July 2024 were “not a priority,” and that the constuon would be modified, casng doubt on the prospects for a mely democrac transion. On May 25, 2024, the military government stunned many democracy watchers by announcing an extension of their rule unl 2029, following what they termed a "naonal conference." This decision, however, was met with widespread skepcism, as the dialogue was largely boycoed by civil society, polical pares, and other key stakeholders. The announcement dealt a severe blow to hopes for a democrac transion, reinforcing fears that the junta intended to hold onto power indefinitely. Adding to the sense of stagnaon, the junta celebrates its two-year anniversary on September 29, 2024. This study builds upon a previous report to provide a comprehensive update and evaluaon of Burkina Faso's ongoing transion process. It offers a detailed analysis of the challenges faced by the transion, providing crical insights into the effecveness of military governments in addressing governance issues and their impact on the country's stability and development. The study further contributes to the broader discourse on the path to restoring democrac order in Burkina Faso.
Topic:: Security, Governance, Geopolitics, Democratic Transitions, and Political Transition
Political Geography:: Africa and Burkina Faso

3453. Populist opposition is threatening progress on climate change

Author:: Edoardo Campanella and Robert Z. Lawrence
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: Driven by the push to decarbonize the world and achieve net zero emissions by 2050, a new anti-elite revolt is in the making in developed economies: If mainstream parties ignore the losers of the green transition as they did with globalization, climate populism not only will slow the adoption of climate policies but could also shake Western democracies. Climate policies are a perfect target for populist rhetoric: They rely on expert knowledge, entail globalist thinking and action, and the counterfactual nature of their benefits—avoiding disasters that would otherwise happen—gives ample fodder for conspiracy theories. And their costs are unevenly shared, hitting those at the bottom of the income distribution significantly harder than those at the top. Climate populism is particularly a problem on the far right, where doubts about science and opposition to international cooperation are strongest. Policies need to deal with this rising political opposition. Given the depth of their grievances, and as it is often the case with populism, it is unlikely that voters antagonistic to climate policies will be persuaded by rational arguments. What will change their behavior are economic incentives. If green technologies are cheaper than fossil fuel ones, they will be adopted to save money rather than the planet. Thus the costs of the green transition need to be reduced through more open trade in the short run and more innovation in the long run. In addition, those who support climate policies need to be mobilized through more engaging political strategies, more emotional narratives, and more bottom-up policy approaches.
Topic:: Climate Change, Populism, Decarbonization, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3454. Migration or stagnation: Aging and economic growth in Korea today, the world tomorrow

Author:: Michael A. Clemens
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: South Korea faces an unprecedented economic crisis driven by rapid population aging, as it approaches a future of negative economic growth. This paper examines the full range of possible policy responses with the potential to restore dynamism to the Korean economy. Contrary to many prior analyses, I find that enhanced labor migration to Korea is necessary, sufficient, and feasible. Migration is necessary because in the best forecasts we have, no other class of policy has the quantitative potential to meaningfully offset aging. Migration is sufficient because enhanced temporary labor migration by itself would offset most of Korea’s demographic drag on growth over the next 50 years. And migration is feasible because the levels of migration and timescale of the transition would resemble that already carried out by Malaysia and Australia. Many advanced economies will follow in Korea’s demographic footsteps in decades to come, and have much to learn from the decisions that the Korean government makes now.
Topic:: Demographics, Migration, Labor Issues, Economic Growth, and Aging
Political Geography:: Asia and South Korea

3455. Korea’s Trade Policy Agenda in an Uncertain US Trade Environment

Author:: Alan Wm. Wolff and Han-Koo Yeo
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: This paper addresses how South Korea, a mid-sized ally of the United States, can best navigate clearly identifiable risks, crafting a positive and pragmatic international trade policy. Korea is heavily dependent on the United States for its defense. It is clear that US trade policy has recently shifted toward being more self-centered, a policy unlikely to be reversed any time soon. The United States is on the threshold of a presidential election that makes it unpredictable in its trade policy, which may become directly harmful to Korean economic prospects if there is a change in leadership. US trade policies under President Joseph Biden have been primarily aimed at onshoring rather than friendshoring, but they have not been actively hostile or threatening. If there is a second Donald Trump term, Korea might not be excluded from substantially increased tariffs—whether for protection, revenue, or leverage—despite the Korea-United States Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA). At the same time that Korea is watchful of developments in the United States, it needs to pay attention to its neighbor, China, the world’s largest trading economy, a country that has practiced trade coercion against it. South Korea is the world’s 13th-largest economy. It is a strong proponent and practitioner of free trade. It is one of a group of midsize free market democracies aligned with the United States that, ranked by GDP, includes Japan, Germany, and France (and therefore with others, the European Union), the United Kingdom, Canada, Italy, and Australia. The future of the global trading system that the market-oriented countries wish to enjoy is increasingly dependent on this group of midsize economies and the European Union. Korea has thrived in large part through its open trade policy that has made it the country with the world’s greatest number of free trade agreements (including with both the United States and China, as well as with the European Union). It shares strong economic security interests with the United States: It has its own K-CHIPS Act, which provides substantial subsidies to its semiconductor industry. It invests very substantially in critical minerals and batteries, as does the United States. Korea also collaborates with the United States in the production of vaccines to meet future pandemics.
Topic:: Climate Change, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, Investment, Trade, Economic Security, Semiconductors, Steel, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:: Asia and South Korea

3456. The International Economic Implications of a Second Trump Presidency

Author:: Warwick McKibbin, Megan Hogan, and Marcus Noland
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: The paper explores policies promoted by former president and now candidate Donald Trump that would potentially affect the global economy. We focus on immigration policy, trade, and erosion of the Federal Reserve Board’s political independence. Each policy has differing macroeconomic and sectoral impacts on the United States and other countries. We find, however, that all the policies examined cause a decline in US production and employment, especially in trade-exposed sectors such as manufacturing and agriculture, as well as higher US inflation. The trade policies do little to improve the US trade balance; however, the erosion of Fed independence does so by causing capital outflows, a significant depreciation of the dollar, and higher unemployment toward the end of 2028, which worsen American living standards. Scenarios combining individual policies show that the changes cause a large inflationary impulse and a significant loss of employment (particularly in manufacturing and agriculture) in the US economy. The negative impact of a contraction in global trade is significant for countries that trade with the United States the most. The adverse effect is offset for some economies by the positive effects of an inflow of foreign capital that would otherwise have gone into the US economy. An online dashboard contains a full set of macroeconomic and sectoral results for all countries.
Topic:: Migration, Central Bank, Trade Policy, Donald Trump, and Deportation
Political Geography:: China and Asia

3457. The Trinity of COVID Era Inflation in G7 Economies

Author:: Joseph E. Gagnon and Asher Rose
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: COVID era inflation was driven by a unique combination of three shocks: First, a plethora of pandemic-related shifts in demand patterns and disruptions to supply caused prices of consumer durable goods to skyrocket. Second, the Ukraine war caused the largest global commodity price surge in 40 years, which mainly affected prices of nondurable goods such as food and gasoline. Third, strong monetary and fiscal responses to the pandemic recession caused labor markets to tighten, pushing up prices of services. This paper estimates models of the components of consumer prices in each G7 economy in order to document the transmission of these shocks. The first two shocks had run their course by 2023, enabling overall inflation to decline sharply from its 2022 peak. But labor markets remained at least moderately tight in most G7 economies in 2024, and services inflation remained noticeably higher than its pre-pandemic level.
Topic:: Economy, Inflation, G7, COVID-19, and Goods and Services
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3458. East Africa’s Potential Role in US Graphite Supply Chains

Author:: Cullen S. Hendrix
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: The impact of the green tech trade war between the United States and China, which began with US semiconductor export controls, is now being felt in other areas. In December 2023, China introduced export controls on graphite, a key element used in the production of noncarbon technologies like batteries and solar panels. The effects were immediate: Chinese graphite exports to the rest of the world declined by 93 percent (by volume) in a single month. Exports to the United States and Japan—which is collaborating with the United States on semiconductor controls—dropped to zero.1 But although China is the largest player, it is not the only graphite producer in town. This Policy Brief assesses the prospects for three Sub-Saharan African countries—Madagascar, Mozambique, and Tanzania—for providing stable supplies of natural graphite to the US market, considering both domestic factors in the three countries and US policies established by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). These countries have adequate graphite resources and operators headquartered in Western allies. The problem is that there are significant governance-related challenges in Madagascar and Mozambique and some domestic challenges to incorporating East African graphite into US electric vehicle (EV) supply chains. US critical mineral sourcing policies will need to be modified to facilitate greater involvement of African producers in US graphite supply chains.
Topic:: Supply Chains, Electric Vehicles, Critical Minerals, and Graphite
Political Geography:: Africa, Mozambique, Tanzania, Madagascar, East Africa, and United States of America

3459. Egypt’s 2023–24 Economic Crisis: Will This Time Be Different?

Author:: Ruchir Agarwal and Adnan Mazarei
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: Egypt narrowly averted a full-blown economic crisis in early 2024 when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others gave Egypt a financial lifeline to curb its losses of foreign exchange reserves. This Policy Brief traces the origins and developments of the current crisis, and the country's history of repeated balance of payments crises. The 2023-24 crisis is one of eight such events in Egypt since 1952, driven by governance and policy deficiencies. The COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have exacerbated Egypt's problems. Egypt's strategic importance in the Middle East, underscored by the Gaza conflict, has ensured continued international financial support, allowing Egypt to bet on its "too strategic to fail" position and avoid reforms. Entrenched military dominance and cronyism have obstructed necessary economic reforms. The authors conclude that Egypt needs to address these challenges and undertake major reforms to break free from its recurring cycle of crises and stop relying on international bailouts.
Topic:: Foreign Exchange, Currency, COVID-19, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:: North Africa and Egypt

3460. Misconceptions about US Trade Deficits Muddy the Economic Policy Debate

Author:: Maurice Obstfeld
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: The distrust of openness to the global economy shared by Republican and Democratic leadership derives in part from a faulty premise that persistent US trade deficits have been imposed on the United States by foreign countries and have contributed significantly to US deindustrialization. In fact, the deficits have important domestic sources, and the main drivers of US manufacturing employment decline lie elsewhere. Two theories that blame foreign countries for deficits hold that deficits arose from unfair competition by trade partners or from a “global savings glut.” The author says the first theory is wrong, the second is incomplete, and economic isolationism is not a solution. Trade and current account deficits result generally from an economy’s collective decisions to save and invest. Freer trade does not necessarily raise investment more than saving, and an investment-driven deficit is likely positive for the economy. The years 1998–2001 during and after the Asian financial crisis led to the dollar appreciating and a rise in the US deficit, consistent with the global saving glut theory. But subsequently in the 2000s, foreign capital was not pushed into the United States from abroad; rather it was pulled and the dollar depreciated. The causes were easy financial conditions, a housing bubble, and strong US consumption—trends that ended in a financial crisis. Understanding this history is essential if the United States is to avoid destructive protectionism and other harmful economic policies.
Topic:: Economy, Economic Policy, Free Trade, Trade Deficit, and Deindustrialization
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

3461. Economic implications of revoking China’s permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) status

Author:: Megan Hogan, Warwick McKibben, and Marcus Noland
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: The United States’ granting of permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) status, formerly known as most favored nation status, to China in 2000 resulted in a large expansion of bilateral trade. Concerns over Chinese trade practices and the impact of Chinese exports on US import-competing sectors have contributed to US political discontent and calls for the revocation of PNTR, including by former president Donald Trump in his reelection campaign and in the 2024 Republican Party Platform. The authors find that revoking China’s PNTR status would cause higher inflation and a short-term decline in US gross domestic product relative to baseline from which the economy never fully recovers. The loss of output and employment would be felt unevenly across the economy, with agriculture, durable manufacturing, and mining taking the biggest hits. Stock market prices would fall, with agricultural, durable manufacturing, and mining firms absorbing the biggest declines. All of these impacts would be magnified if China retaliates. Ironically, the revocation would damage the US industrial sector and contribute to a wider US trade deficit.
Topic:: Economics, Bilateral Relations, Manufacturing, and Trade
Political Geography:: China and Asia

3462. Did Supply Chains Deliver Pandemic-Era Inflation?

Author:: Phil Levy
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: This Policy Brief argues that supply chain breakdowns were not a principal cause of pandemic-era inflation. Levy focuses on US trade in containerized goods and shows that, within months of the pandemic’s onset, the quantities of goods delivered in fact increased significantly. The sharp increases in inflation and shipping prices and the accompanying delays and empty shelves in the presence of significantly increased quantities suggest, instead, a large positive demand shock. Goods consumption levels rose sharply and remained elevated into 2023 and beyond, even as shipping delays and price hikes dissipated. The author concludes that, while it may be worthwhile to make supply chains more efficient and aim for increased elasticity of supply, the goal of avoiding inflation and shortages is likely better met through improved demand management.
Topic:: Inflation, Trade, COVID-19, Shipping, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

3463. Was Something Structurally Wrong at the FOMC?

Author:: Alan S. Blinder
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: There is little doubt that the Federal Reserve was late to start raising interest rates as inflation rose in 2021–22. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) made a substantial, though perhaps understandable, error in failing to raise interest rates until March 2022. Much of that policy error can be attributed to faulty forecasts of inflation, which the Federal Reserve shared with many other forecasters. It was not an outlier. But the error was not quite as consequential as the Fed’s sharpest critics allege. Even if the FOMC had started to hike rates earlier, the econometric evidence suggests that the effects on peak inflation would likely have been small. Supply constraints, not excess demand, ruled the roost. They came, driving inflation higher; and then they went, pulling inflation down. Blinder says that the FOMC’s August 2020 framework shoulders more of the blame for the inflationary surge than it should—probably because the new wording revised both of the Fed’s goals, low inflation and high employment, in dovish directions. For that reason alone, the framework will almost certainly be changed in 2025, given the high inflation since. But how? Blinder suggests that the August 2020 change in the employment goal, from symmetry to “shortfalls,” is sensible and probably not too important anyway. But the change in the inflation goal, from a 2 percent point target to flexible average inflation targeting (FAIT), was probably consequential. It may have made the FOMC slow on the draw as inflation gathered steam, and it may have kept monetary policy too tight for too long in 2024. In both directions, Blinder argues, a 1.5 to 2.5 percent target range would be a better choice. To answer the question in the title of this Policy Brief, that may be the structural flaw the Fed should fix.
Topic:: Economics, Monetary Policy, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, and Supply
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

3464. Is the United States undergoing a manufacturing renaissance that will boost the middle class?

Author:: Robert Z. Lawrence
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: President Joseph R. Biden Jr. made the goal of his economic policies to “build back better.” He emphasized helping workers without college degrees in order “to grow the economy from the bottom up and the middle out.” The emphasis on a manufacturing renaissance is reflected in the special incentives for US manufacturing in President Biden’s programs: the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, the CHIPS and Science Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act. Lawrence finds little evidence of a renaissance in US manufacturing as of July 2024: US manufacturing employment was barely above its pre-COVID levels. Manufacturing output has grown more slowly than GDP since the pandemic, and productivity in manufacturing has not increased since 2017. Moreover, the Bureau of Labor Statistics projects that over the next decade, manufacturing employment will decline and manufacturing output will grow more slowly than GDP. However, Lawrence says, additional manufacturing employment growth could be in the pipeline because of investment projects that have been announced but not yet completed. Lawrence estimates the additional manufacturing employment potential of announcements compiled by the White House as of mid-2024, finding that these projects could boost demand for 1.7 million manufacturing workers—a growth of 13.3 percent above 2022 manufacturing employment levels. It should be noted, however, that these are not estimates of net overall manufacturing employment growth. Some of the increased demand will be offset by losses of fossil fuel–related jobs displaced by the investments as well as declines in manufacturing employment for other reasons. Moreover, the impact of all the projects is just over 1 percent of overall US employment and in most states far too small to significantly change the opportunities for most non-college-educated workers and disadvantaged communities.
Topic:: Economic Policy, Inflation, Manufacturing, and Middle Class
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

3465. Mistaken Identities Make for Bad Trade Policy

Author:: Maurice Obstfeld
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: Election season debates over trade policy have brought renewed attention to the United States' longstanding deficit in foreign trade. Critics from both the right and left sides of the political spectrum, including Donald Trump and his allies, hold the trade deficit responsible for a range of alleged ills, among them, slower US economic growth, fewer jobs, the decline in manufacturing, and a transfer of American wealth to foreign owners. Trump supporters' ideas to reduce US trade deficits, such as far-reaching taxes on international transactions or forced dollar devaluation, rest on particular theories of why the deficits have arisen and persisted. These theories often have little basis other than macroeconomic accounting identities—relationships that are always true, by definition, and that therefore are consistent with a range of economic outcomes. Two key macroeconomic identities, the national income and product identity and the balance-of-payments identity, have been widely abused as justifications for radical policies to balance US trade. The identities describe relationships that necessarily hold among macro variables, but without the further input of behavioral reasoning, they cannot yield valid predictions or constructive policy conclusions. Identity-based reasoning is especially dangerous because it disguises the collateral damage that superficial fixes may inflict. It is much better to identify and directly correct the distortions that cause excessive trade deficits to emerge and persist.
Topic:: Elections, Macroeconomics, Trade Policy, Donald Trump, and Trade Deficit
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

3466. The Rise of US Economic Sanctions on China: Analysis of a New PIIE Dataset

Author:: Martin Chorzempa, Mary Lovely, and Christine Wan
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: Concerns over China’s national security and human rights activities have led the United States to rely increasingly on financial sanctions and export controls to curb Beijing’s behavior. But the tools are so complex it is difficult to assess their effectiveness. A new PIIE dataset sheds light on this economic statecraft. The first Trump administration added three times as many Chinese entities to export control and other sanctions lists than the previous four administrations; the Biden administration added even more to these lists. Most sanctions and controls target high-tech sectors, especially electronics, military and defense entities, aviation, space, and aerospace; targets are chosen under a veil of secrecy, raising questions over accountability and transparency. The benefits of isolating Chinese firms come with potential costs, hobbling innovation for US and allied business, encouraging circumvention of sanctions, and accelerating Chinese innovation.
Topic:: Economics, Human Rights, National Security, Sanctions, and Exports
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

3467. Is the World Trade Organization Still Relevant?

Author:: Alan Wm. Wolff
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: There has been a profound shift in American foreign economic policy. The United States has abandoned promotion of a rules-based open international trading system and no longer supports the World Trade Organization (WTO). The United States and its allies created the current world trading system as an essential part of the liberal world order, a series of rules-based international organizations and agreements to help rebuild the global economy and foster peaceful cooperation after World War II. Today, rising populism, heightened geopolitical tensions, and persistent inequality are threatening this order. Wolff emphasizes that the WTO is still relevant to the liberal international order, and it is in the core interest of the United States and other countries to continue to support that order. But he cautions that the WTO needs major reforms if it is to survive as an effective force governing world trade. WTO members must engage in serious negotiations to find acceptable solutions to shared problems. The resulting agreements can be political commitments or adoption of binding rules. Regressing to a lack of accountability for one’s trade policy measures, however, would be unacceptably damaging.
Topic:: Economic Policy, Trade, WTO, and International Order
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

3468. Inclusion of Loss and Damage as a Subgoal in the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG)

Author:: International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Abstract:: The policy brief demonstrates how incorporating Loss and Damage (L&D) into the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) being discussed currently at COP 29 will address not only the equity gap for developing countries, but also provide a well-rounded and well-defined climate finance landscape. By anchoring L&D as a distinct component within the NCQG, developing countries can secure finances to respond to unavoidable climate impacts and non-economic loss and damage, ensuring a more comprehensive and just response to the climate crisis.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Climate Finance, Equity, Loss and Damage (L&D), and Conference of the Parties (COP)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3469. Climate Change Impacts in Bangladesh: What Climate Change Means for a Country and its People

Author:: International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Abstract:: This report is a scientific synthesis by the International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD) in collaboration with Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET). It is intended to inform policymakers, media, the private sector, civil society, academics and anyone looking for country-level information on the impacts of climate change in Bangladesh. It has been reviewed internally before publication.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Natural Disasters, and Vulnerability
Political Geography:: Bangladesh and South Asia

3470. The Future of Elections in Ukraine

Author:: Razumkov Centre
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: National Security and Defence
Institution:: Razumkov Centre
Abstract:: The project «The Future of Elections in Ukraine: The Factor of War» was carried out by the Razumkov Centre with the support of the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung in Ukraine in May- September 2024, during the third year of Ukraine’s full-scale war against the russian aggressor. The project included an analytical report, a nationwide sociological and expert survey, an offline roundtable involving experts in the fields of law and political science, and original articles by renowned experts in electoral law. This publication contains an abridged version of the analytical report and the main findings of the expert and sociological surveys in descriptive form. All project materials (in Ukrainian) are available in a special issue of the National Security and Defence journal (№1-2, 2024). '
Topic:: National Security, Law, Elections, Domestic Politics, Political Science, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

3471. The Impact of Clubfoot Intervention on Dimensions of Human Flourishing: Evidence from the Organization Hope Walks in Ethiopia

Author:: Bruce Wydick, Gianna Camacho, and Patrizio Piraino
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: We study the impact of clubfoot disability and its treatment on multiple dimensions of human flourishing among children. Working with Hope Walks, a faith-based development organization that funds clubfoot interventions in numerous countries, we use a quasi difference-indifferences approach on data collected from 564 children in Ethiopia. To generate counterfactuals to clubfoot status and treatment, we use outcomes from nearest-age siblings of children born with clubfoot nested within a family-level fixed effect. We find that clubfoot status (early treatment) results in a disability (restoration) of -1.44σ (0.91σ) in physical mobility, -1.17σ (0.79σ) in mental health, -1.07σ (0.64σ) in social inclusion, -0.48σ (0.98σ) in an education index, -0.76σ (0.42σ) in religious faith, and -1.19σ (0.79σ) in an aggregate index of human flourishing (all p < 0.05). We attribute the large, broad, and significant impacts from clubfoot treatment to (i) a highly effective medical intervention that is (ii) carried out in an impoverished setting with scarce existing support for children born with disabilities, which (3) generates spillover effects into multiple facets of human flourishing.
Topic:: Health, Disability, Human Development, and Dignity
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

3472. An Integrative Framework to Assess Trade-Offs and Implications of Choosing Measurements

Author:: Laura García Montoya
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: Deciding how to measure critical social science concepts like inequality and democracy is one of the most consequential decisions researchers and policymakers make. Yet we lack concrete guidelines to recognize and weigh the tradeoffs that make going from concept to measurement such a challenging task. This paper builds on existing work on measurement validity and develops a framework that allows scholars to identify the trade-offs between three desirable properties of measurement: completeness, interpretability, and normative alignment. The first challenge results from the inherent trade-off between completeness and interpretability. The second challenge results from the lack of empirical tools to assess the normative implications of choosing one indicator over another one. To exemplify how to navigate these challenges, the paper engages with debates on how to measure democracy and inequality. The paper aims to guide scholars in the consequential task of choosing one indicator that matches their research goals as well as their normative orientations.
Topic:: Poverty, Democracy, and Inequality
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3473. Positioned for Peacebuilding? The Complex Role of the Catholic Church in the Venezuelan Conflict

Author:: David Smilde and Hugo Pérez Hernáiz
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: The Catholic Church would seem to be perfectly positioned to facilitate peace in the Venezuelan conflict. It is the country’s most respected institution, and Pope Francis has been personally interested in peacemaking in the region. Furthermore, there is precedent in the region. In Colombia, since the 1980s, the Catholic Church has played a key role in mobilizing the population for peace, supporting the peace process directly, and through involvement in issues of transitional justice. In this article, we briefly describe the peacebuilding activities of the Colombian Catholic Church, more extensively describe the activities of the Venezuelan Catholic Church, and then compare the two to understand the particular challenges the Venezuelan Church faces. We suggest that while the Venezuelan Church faces a similar political opportunity structure as the Colombian Church, it does so with less mobilizing strength and with a lesser ability to provide a clear ideological alternative to the conflict.
Topic:: Religion, Transitional Justice, Conflict, Catholic Church, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Colombia, South America, Latin America, and Venezuela

3474. The Simple Job of Giving Torment,The Grupo Élite: A Death Squad of the Guatemalan Army

Author:: Manolo E. Vela Castañeda
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: This article analyzes the Grupo Élite, a death squad within the Guatemalan Presidential General Staff, whose members received orders from the intelligence sector, particularly the Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff of Guatemala’s Defense Ministry. This was a specialized unit charged with special intelligence operations against dissidents. Such operations included surveillance, infiltration into opposition groups, arrests, interrogations by means of torture, sexual violence, extrajudicial executions, and forced disappearances. This article examines seven patterns that serve to characterize this particular unit and its members, including: 1) the command structure of the squad; 2) sociodemographic profiles of its members; 3) methods of recruitment; 4) the job description of members as part of an internal secret code; 5) the use of nicknames as pseudonyms; (6) careers and medals; and 7) careers after leaving the squad. Within the theater of war operations in Guatemala’s civil war, few actors rival the cruelty, perversity and sadism that characterized the actions of the country’s death squads.
Topic:: Corruption, Conflict, Violence, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Central America and Guatemala

3475. Enhancing Trilateral Security Cooperation: Korea, the United States, and Indonesia

Author:: Sook-yeon Lee
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: Sook-yeon Lee argues that Indonesia serves as an ideal partner for the United States and South Korea to advance their objectives in the Indo-Pacific region and that the three countries should expand areas for trilateral cooperation. While the bilateral South Korea-Indonesia and US-Indonesia partnerships have deepened over the past several decades, trilateral security cooperation remains unexplored due to the differing scopes of cooperation between the two bilateral relationships. Lee outlines several areas in which the three countries should expand trilateral cooperation and contribute to strengthening regional security. Due to Indonesia’s desire for neutrality and South Korea’s concerns regarding its ties with China, Lee recommends a cautious approach to initiating trilateral cooperation in maritime security and counterterrorism before gradually expanding to additional areas. Such an approach both addresses Indonesia’s immediate cooperative needs and aligns with areas that South Korea and the United States have already identified within their respective partnerships with Indonesia. However, the primary challenge facing trilateral security cooperation is maintaining mutual trust and ensuring the leaders of all three countries are committed to upholding trust as the foundation of trilateralism. Domestic politics and foreign policy considerations of the three countries further complicate efforts to enhance trilateral security cooperation. Thus, Lee recommends that the three countries strengthen strategic dialogues to understand and respect the differences in each country’s respective core interests to ensure the establishment of a durable trilateral partnership between South Korea, Indonesia, and the United States.
Topic:: International Relations, Bilateral Relations, Strategic Interests, Regional Security, and Security Cooperation
Political Geography:: Indonesia, South Korea, North Korea, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

3476. Camp David and US-Japan-ROK Trilateral Security and Defense Cooperation: Consolidating the Northeast Asia Anchor in the Indo-Pacific

Author:: Yasuyo Sakata
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: Yasuyo Sakata provides a historical overview of US-Japan-ROK defense cooperation in Northeast Asia, from the Korean War to the Camp David Summit, explaining how the trilateral partnership was redefined as an Indo-Pacific partnership and incorporated the “Northeast Asia Anchor.” Sakata argues that Japan and the United States have taken the lead in reconstructing the Indo-Pacific security architecture through their Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) strategies, and that the US-Japan-ROK trilateral relationship has been incorporated into this framework alongside other alliances such as the Quad and AUKUS. Sakata explores how Korea’s shift back towards the Indo-Pacific under President Yoon’s leadership has allowed for expansion of the scope of US-Japan-ROK trilateral cooperation, as affirmed during the Camp David Summit. However, Sakata contends that a comprehensive defense approach is needed in the Indo-Pacific involving allies and partners to build upon this foundation and strengthen defense and security cooperation amidst the challenges posed by North Korea, the Taiwan Strait, maritime security, cybersecurity, and space. Action is essential, as time is running out to solidify gains from the Camp David Summit and build a stable relationship. Therefore, Sakata argues that Japan and South Korea should strengthen relations deliberately yet cautiously before domestic politics potentially spoil recent progress.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Alliance, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

3477. Trilateralism in the Wake of the 2022 Jolt Toward Bipolarity in the Indo-Pacific and World

Author:: Gilbert Rozman
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: Gil Rozman argues that trilateralism reached unprecedented levels in the first two decades of the 21st century. Russia, Japan, and South Korea each sought different triangular frameworks to position themselves at the pivot of great power relations in Northeast Asia and the broader Indo-Pacific region. However, Rozman contends that by 2024 trilateralism had shifted to reinforce bipolarity amidst great power competition. After describing three types of triangular frameworks, Rozman examines the transformation of trilateralism in the Indo-Pacific region from 2022 to 2024 (particularly in Northeast Asia), analyzes the challenges military security, economic security, and national identity gaps pose to trilateralism, and evaluates the potential impact of leadership on triangular relationships. The shift from what Rozman calls triangular pivots to alliance triangles in international relations is primarily driven by security concerns yet also by economic vulnerability and national identity gaps. For Korea, the US-Japan-ROK alliance triangle, which was solidified at the Camp David Summit, is at the center of triangular solidarity. Given the polarized international and regional environment, Rozman argues it is unlikely that leadership could reverse the current trend of alliance triangle consolidation in the near future.
Topic:: Security, Alliance, Strategic Competition, Regional Politics, and Trilateralism
Political Geography:: Russia, Japan, South Korea, and Indo-Pacific

3478. US-South Korea Cyber Cooperation: Towards the Higher-Hanging Fruits

Author:: Jenny Jun and So Jeong Kim
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: In the past decade, the US and South Korea faced a relatively narrow set of challenges in cyberspace, notably North Korea’s cyber crime facilitating sanctions evasion. In the next decade, however, the two countries will face a more diversified set of challenges with growing North Korean ties with Russia, its involvement in the war in Ukraine, and intensifying US-China competition. The US and South Korea must develop a joint playbook for responding to scenarios of disruptive cyber operations targeting South Korean public and private sectors and prepare for an even more difficult environment for curbing North Korea’s cyber crime as Russia provides a way out. Over the past two years, the US and South Korea have significantly deepened and broadened cooperation on cyber issues and have expanded cooperation further to trilateral and multilateral settings. The two countries established several regular high-level and working-level dialogues, have issued joint sanctions and threat advisories, and deepened mil-to-mil cooperation. However, 2024 has been a watershed in terms of shifting geopolitical dynamics on and around the Korean peninsula. Cyber threats will become more diversified, and the bilateral relationship will be tested at the seams without a clear joint strategic concept and operational plan.
Topic:: Sanctions, Geopolitics, Multilateralism, Strategic Competition, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:: China, Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

3479. Clean Energy Pragmatism as a Spark for US-South Korea Relations

Author:: Elan Sykes
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: The United States and South Korea are close allies, committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and home to advanced industrial economies. Pragmatic cooperation on clean energy technologies would aid their shared goals in climate mitigation, energy security, and supply chain resilience. US-South Korea cooperation should include pooling shared technological expertise, aligning market and carbon accounting rules, investing in constrained supply chains, and adopting well-targeted policies to encourage research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) projects for early-stage technologies like clean hydrogen and advanced nuclear power plants. Clean energy pragmatism requires acknowledgment of the constraints facing each country to ensure policies are properly scoped, politically durable, and revised iteratively in light of observed outcomes. Neither country can succeed in this multidecadal transition alone. With their shared industrial capacity, world-class innovators engaged in joint research and development, and properly aligned market standards, however, both countries can solidify their position to achieve 21st-century energy security and economic growth. Yet, policy design and implementation are never complete unless a problem is entirely solved, and climate change is not a problem that can be solved over a single presidential term. Political shifts hold the potential to either undo progress or help spur new action.
Topic:: International Relations, Science and Technology, Renewable Energy, Supply Chains, and Research and Development
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

3480. Canvasing Variations in US-South Korea Cooperation on AI and Quantum Technology

Author:: Sanghyun Han
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: This paper elucidates how Washington and Seoul cooperate on AI and quantum technologies, both recognized as critical emerging technologies essential to their national interests. Technology cooperation is denoted as government-to-government efforts aimed at cultivating and developing technology, focusing on national strategies and interests. In AI, the United States holds a dominant leadership position, while South Korea demonstrates strengths in certain areas, though not across the board. Cooperation in AI primarily focuses on standardization efforts, with significant involvement of the South Korean government in partnerships with the US private sector, as well as private-sector-led bilateral research initiatives. In contrast, South Korea’s capabilities in quantum technologies are far more limited. Nevertheless, cooperation in this domain is largely centered on research collaboration, with both governments actively participating alongside international research consortia led by the United States. The differing focuses—standardization in AI and research collaboration in quantum technologies—reflect the respective strengths and needs of the two countries in these critical fields. The progression of the US-ROK alliance in this direction is both natural and beneficial, as the development of advanced and sophisticated technology is incrsaneasingly beyond the capacity of any single state alone.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Artificial Intelligence, Private Sector, Standardization, and Quantum Computing
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

3481. Cooperation on Semiconductor Supply Chains and Technology

Author:: Soyoung Kwon
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: The security alliance between the United States and South Korea, once focused primarily on military defense, is evolving to include economic security and technological cooperation. The evolving partnership between the two countries, particularly in the areas of semiconductor supply chains and advanced technologies, features the deepening and broadening of the alliance in the form of a Global Comprehensive Strategic Alliance. This change is driven by intensifying competition between the United States and China, which has led to the securitization of key technologies like semiconductors. This paper examines the opportunities and challenges in deepening and broadening US-South Korea cooperation on semiconductor supply chains. While such developments support the shared objectives of advancing technological innovation, bolstering supply chain resilience, and addressing potential threats from China, challenges remain in diverging threat perceptions and concerns about collective deterrence. The study concludes that aligning strategic objectives in economic security and technological cooperation is essential to ensure the sustainability of the alliance and its ability to navigate the complex global techno-geopolitical landscape.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Supply Chains, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

3482. From Security Alliance to Comprehensive Technology Centered Partnership

Author:: Scott Snyder
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: The Joe Biden and Yoon Suk-yeol administrations have embraced the expansion of economic cooperation within the US-ROK alliance, leading to the emergence of South Korea as a valued technology partner of the United States and an era of institutionalization for the bilateral relationship. This issue of Korea Policy examines the commitments of the two governments to cooperate on the development of critical and emerging technologies and is intended to capture major changes in the depth of cooperation reflected in the intensification and expansion of policy dialogues between the two countries in both technology development and the defense industrial base. Major themes highlighted across the papers include challenges to maintaining a technology-centered coalition among like-minded partners, the impact of political transition on the sustainability of technology-driven cooperation, the role of the private sector, and the implications of expanding the concept of an alliance beyond its core security-centered logic. As the alliance management baton passes from the Biden to the Donald Trump administration, an important question will be whether the Biden administration’s efforts to “lock in” institutionalized cooperation are sustainable through the political transition and whether such efforts will only be successful with “buy-in” from President Trump and his new administration.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

3483. Climate shocks and economic resilience: Evidence from Zambia's formal sector

Author:: Kwabena Adu-Ababio, Evaristo Mwale, and Rodrigo Oliveira
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Low-income countries face the combined challenges of climate shocks and limited domestic revenue mobilization, yet these issues are rarely studied together. This paper provides new evidence on the impact of climate shocks on firm performance and tax revenue in a low-income country context, using firm-level data from Zambia. We find that extreme weather events, such as excessive rainfall and high temperatures, significantly reduce firms’ sales, input purchases, and tax collection, particularly in sectors such as manufacturing, retail, accommodation, and construction. Firms respond by reducing employment and wages, reflecting a decline in productivity. Our findings highlight the need to consider the combined effects of climate shocks on both formal sector productivity and government revenue in developing countries, where taxation on services and goods (e.g. VAT) represents a larger share of government budgets.
Topic:: Climate Change, Revenue, Firms, and Value-Added Tax (VAT)
Political Geography:: Africa and Zambia

3484. Gendered effects of climate and conflict shocks on food security in Sudan and the mitigating role of social protection

Author:: Aysegül Kayaoglu, Ghassan Baliki, and Tilman Brück
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Climate change and violent conflict are defining challenges of our time. However, it is not yet understood how they interact in shaping human welfare and food security, how their interaction shapes gendered outcomes, or how social protection systems can mitigate their impact. To address these knowledge gaps, we first examine how household food insecurity relates to conflict and climate shocks and whether these associations are gender-sensitive. Second, we test what mechanisms can reduce the negative impacts of these shocks. Our empirical analysis relies on novel survey data of 7,908 rural households collected across 14 states in Sudan in 2022. Sudan currently faces floods, droughts, and violent conflict affecting agricultural production and food supply. We find that climate shocks do not significantly affect food consumption scores (FCS), while exposure to violent conflict leads to a substantial decrease in FCS. Both productive and nonproductive assets increase FCS for all households, especially female-headed households. Longer distances to agricultural input and output markets correlate with lower FCS, particularly for maleheaded households. Women’s social group membership positively impacts on FCS for femaleheaded households. However, women do not receive additional benefits from other social networks during climate and conflict exposure, while male-headed households benefit from all types of social networks. Income diversification is identified as a key strategy for improving FCS, particularly for female-headed households during conflict. Informal cash transfers significantly improve FCS, especially for female-headed households. In contrast, formal cash transfers negatively correlate with FCS, although they positively impact on male-headed households during violent conflict. Overall, we recommend targeted social protection programmes that address gender disparities and enhance resilience among vulnerable populations.
Topic:: Climate Change, Food Security, Conflict, Gender, and Social Protection
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

3485. Economic impacts of electricity supply shortages in South Africa

Author:: Hiroaki Suenaga
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This study examines the sectoral impacts of electricity supply shortages in South Africa, using the cost share information available from the 2015 social accounting matrix. A simulation conducted under each of two technological assumptions, Cobb-Douglas and Leontief, reveals that a productivity decline in the electricity, gas, steam, and hot water supply (EGSH) sector increases the price of the EGSH sector substantially, while it affects the other sectors marginally due to the small cost shares of the EGSH factor in these sectors. The total cost of supplying the baseline final demand increases by ZAR19 billion or 0.46% of the baseline gross value added (GVA) when EGSH productivity declines by 10%. This cost impact expands to ZAR150 billion or 3.57% of GVA when EGSH productivity is halved. Large shares of these cost increments are incurred by the EGSH and manufacturing sectors, owning to the direct physical impact of productivity decline for the former and a large share of its sectoral GVA in the aggregate economy for the latter. The simulation also indicates that the equilibrium wage should increase by a greater extent for workers with a lower education than for those with a higher education if the baseline final demands are to be met at the higher EGSH output price after the sector’s productivity decline
Topic:: Economy, Manufacturing, Electricity, Supply, and Productivity
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

3486. The gendered effects of climate shocks on labour and welfare in Zambia

Author:: Alessandra Hidalgo-Arestegui, Patricia Justino, Gabriel Monteiro, Rodrigo Oliveira, and Bruce Sianyeuka
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper exploits several waves of two major nationwide representative surveys to document the impacts of climate shocks on individuals and households in Zambia. We merge these datasets with historical precipitation and temperature data at the district level. First, we show the gendered effects of the shocks, which have a higher negative impact on women. Women have a lower probability of being in the labourforce and fewer hours of work when experiencing shocks. Second, we show that households affected by climate shocks have 16% lower consumption, which is mainly explained by female-headed households. We show that social protection policies mitigate income reduction but not consumption, which may suggest that climate shocks affect households directly by reducing their income, but also indirectly by raising food prices.
Topic:: Climate Change, Labor Issues, Consumption, Gender, and Climate Shocks
Political Geography:: Africa and Zambia

3487. Raindrop in the drought? Vulnerability to climate shocks and the role of social protection in Zambia

Author:: Katrin Gasior, Pia Rattenhuber, Adnan Shahir, and Anna Zasova
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Zambia’s reliance on rain-fed agriculture makes its economy and population highly vulnerable to frequent droughts and irregular rainfall. This paper assesses the role of social protection, specifically the Social Cash Transfer (SCT) program, in mitigating drought-induced poverty and consumption declines. Using the MicroZAMOD microsimulation model and districtlevel rainfall data, we find that rainfall shocks significantly increase poverty and reduce household consumption, disproportionately affecting the poorest households. While the current SCT program provides some relief, reforms to eligibility criteria, particularly removing the household composition requirement, could improve targeting, expand coverage, and strengthen resilience against climate-related economic shocks.
Topic:: Agriculture, Climate Change, Tax Systems, Vulnerability, and Social Protection
Political Geography:: Africa and Zambia

3488. Tax financing options for new social protection instruments: The equity implications of taxing more to expand the South African social security system

Author:: Maya Goldman and Ntuthuko Hlela
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: In this paper, we use a static fiscal incidence analysis model to evaluate the poverty and inequality impacts of using fiscal policy to finance expanded social spending in South Africa. We assess three methods to enhance the social protection system’s equity objectives: increasing the size and/or coverage of the existing Social Relief of Distress grant and introducing a universal or working-age basic income grant. The implications of financing these reforms are examined using four tax instruments: increasing the value-added tax rate, increasing personal income tax rates, reducing the personal income tax primary annual rebate, and introducing a surcharge on incomes. While we discuss behavioural effects, they are not included in the model. Our analysis indicates that an expansion of the social security system financed through increased taxation could substantially reduce poverty and inequality to varying degrees depending on the taxes and transfers used.
Topic:: Poverty, Inequality, Tax Systems, Fiscal Policy, Social Spending, and Cash Transfers
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

3489. The sustainability of South African fiscal policy

Author:: Philippe Burger
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: The public-debt-to-GDP ratio in South Africa increased from 26 per cent in the 2008/09 fiscal year to 73.9 per cent in 2023/24, raising fears that fiscal policy is not sustainable. This raises the question: did the government take steps to arrest the increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio and regain fiscal sustainability, and if so, why did they fail? Establishing fiscal sustainability can be done directly or indirectly. Doing it directly entails the government increasing the primary balance in reaction to higher debt levels. Hence, this paper presents a fiscal reaction function. The analysis shows that during the period in which the public-debt-to-GDP ratio rose, the primary balance did indeed react to an increased debt burden, but its level remained too low to arrest the increase in the public-debt-to-GDP ratio. The analysis also assesses whether fiscal fatigue set in, wherein the responsiveness of the primary balance to the debt burden is positive but eventually weakens. Some evidence for the presence of fiscal fatigue is present. One indirect approach to establishing fiscal sustainability is through the impact of expenditure and revenue on economic growth. Leaving revenue for further study later, this paper presents an adapted growth equation to investigate the impact on growth of general government investment and consumption expenditure, and of public (and private) corporation investment. While the effect of private sector investment is positive, neither general government nor public corporation investment has a statistically significant impact on growth. Furthermore, government consumption has a negative impact on growth.
Topic:: Investment, Fiscal Policy, Deficit, Sustainability, and Public Debt
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

3490. Spatial consumption inequality in Mozambique

Author:: Carlos Gradín
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: In this paper, I show that the trend in spatial inequality in Mozambique almost entirely explains the outstanding surge in inequality in the country over the past decade, as well as its decline immediately after the pandemic, in contrast to its secondary role in the earliest years. For this analysis, I use an innovative regression-based decomposition framework based on the Recentred Influence Function to estimate each area’s contribution to inequality and a Blinder– Oaxaca approach to disentangle the nature of their contribution to spatial and non-spatial inequality trends. This rise in inequality was mainly due to a generalized drop in consumption experienced by households in the afflicted rural areas in the north and centre of the country, affected by natural disasters and growing conflict. This was aggravated by disproportionally larger economic growth in two urban areas: the Maputo area, which encompassed the capital, during the expansive phase, and the urban area of coal-rich Tete province during the recession that followed. In more recent years, the crisis disproportionally affected the capital and other urban areas, producing a strong mitigating effect on inequality that might be only temporary. The findings of this research have the potential to significantly inform policy decisions to address inequality in Mozambique, thereby contributing to the country’s economic development substantially.
Topic:: Inequality, Urban, Rural, and Economic Development
Political Geography:: Africa, Mozambique, and Sub-Saharan Africa

3491. Spillover effects of the recent US monetary policy shocks on the South African economy: The role of monetary and fiscal policy coordination

Author:: Guangling Liu and Marrium Mustapher
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This study examines how different policy mix regimes affect the impact of recent US contractionary monetary policy on South Africa’s inflation and business cycles. The study uses a small open economy New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model with an integrated fiscal block to analyse these effects. Regime M (active monetary policy) is more effective at containing the spillover effects but leads to higher public debt, requiring larger future fiscal surpluses. The commitment to price stability under Regime M increases real interest rates, raising domestic debt service costs and the debt-to-GDP ratio. Regime F (active fiscal policy), in contrast, stabilizes debt more quickly but at the cost of higher inflation, as it does not use future surpluses to manage public debt. These spillover effects are more amplified under both Regime M and Regime F in the case of a complete exchange rate pass-through and a higher degree of trade openness, with Regime F exhibiting a stronger amplification effect.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Monetary Policy, Inflation, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:: Africa, South Africa, North America, and United States of America

3492. Dancing on the grid: electricity crises, manufacturing energy vulnerability, and jobs in South Africa

Author:: Gideon Ndubuisi, Elvis Korku Avenyo, and Rex Asiama
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: South Africa’s current electricity crises have worsened, placing the country on an uncertain and turbulent economic trajectory. To identify the manufacturing sub-sectors that are most vulnerable to this crises, we use the input–output matrices for the period between 1993 and 2021 to develop a sub-sector energy vulnerability index. Second, we employ the self-constructed energy vulnerability index in a flexible empirical framework to examine the effect of the electricity crises on manufacturing sector jobs in the country. We find that energy vulnerability has a high degree of heterogeneity across manufacturing sub-sectors, highlighting cross-sector differences in the level of exposure and susceptibility to the energy-related crises. Results from the empirical analysis, on the other hand, suggest that electricity crises are associated with significant job destruction, with this adverse effect severe for manufacturing sectors with higher energy vulnerability intensity. The severity of this adverse effect holds irrespective of the nature of jobs, whether formal or informal.
Topic:: Crisis Management, Manufacturing, Electricity, Vulnerability, and Jobs
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

3493. The experimented society: interventions, social science, and the failure of post-conflict reconstruction in Afghanistan

Author:: Jennifer Brick Murtazashvili
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper critically examines the shortcomings of post-conflict reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan from 2001 to 2021, arguing that an overemphasis on measurable results and causal inference led to overly narrow, community-driven development interventions that failed to appreciate the complex political realities of the country. While these interventions espoused community control, they were in fact the result of a top-down approach reminiscent of earlier state-building efforts, neglected the importance of customary authority structures, and treated Afghanistan as a blank slate for experimentation. Such community-based programmes also lead to a myopic focus on quantifiable metrics at the expense of political considerations, reflecting a broader methodological bias in development studies exemplified by the popularity of randomized controlled trials. Drawing on extensive field observations, the paper contends that such programmes worked against the grain of Afghan society and paradoxically undermined the legitimacy and effectiveness of local governance institutions. The paper concludes by advocating a more holistic, adaptive, and politically informed approach to grassroots development in conflictaffected regions—one that empowers authentic local ownership, aligns with endogenous social and political structures, and grapples with the messy realities of fostering legitimate governance in fragile contexts. The hard-earned lessons from Afghanistan’s recent past should prompt a fundamental rethinking of what constitutes effective development assistance in post-conflict environments.
Topic:: Development, Governance, Reconstruction, and Post-Conflict
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and South Asia

3494. Statebuilding in fragile countries: What can we learn from past stateness?

Author:: Andrea Vaccaro and Rachel M. Gisselquist
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Supporting state capacity is a priority for the international community, yet the record of internationally supported statebuilding to date has been mixed at best. A key question for continuing research concerns the factors influencing more versus less successful interventions. We show that the quality of past ‘stateness’ is crucial in understanding contemporary state fragility and statebuilding. Extending beyond previous work, we introduce the concept of past stateness, consider theoretically its relationship to contemporary fragility, and explore this relationship empirically, drawing on cross-national data and newly developed indicators. In line with our expectations, descriptive and inferential analysis shows that lack of experience of two core features of stateness—monopoly of violence and existence of a professional bureaucracy—in the past century predicts chronic fragility today. This association is mainly driven by monopoly of violence rather than existence of a professional bureaucracy. Our analysis sheds new light on the underlying heterogeneity among states today labelled as ‘fragile’. From a policy perspective, a key implication is that, in designing interventions, the most relevant experiences are likely to be from other countries with similar stateness legacies, rather than from ‘fragile states’ more generally. Our analysis does not imply that statebuilding is impossible in contexts with weak stateness legacies, but it does underscore the challenges of this and the importance of setting expectations appropriately.
Topic:: Bureaucracy, State Fragility, Statebuilding, and Monopoly of Violence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3495. Economic geography determinants of spatial wage disparities in South Africa: Evidence from a firm‐level panel

Author:: Sanduku Mulumba, Lawrence Edwards, and David Fadiran
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: In this paper, we use the new economic geography (NEG) framework to estimate the extent to which spatial wage disparities in the South African manufacturing sector are an outcome of economic forces such as market access. To test the relationship, we use the anonymized tax data on employers and employees made available by the South African Revenue Service and National Treasury in collaboration with UNU-WIDER. We first document the key stylized facts that characterize the spatial distribution of wages across regions in South Africa using exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) techniques. We then test for the existence of a wage structure across South African local and metropolitan municipalities, controlling for individual and firm characteristics using a two-stage estimation method. Consistent with the NEG predictions, we find that wages are higher in municipalities that are closer to large markets, as measured by the Harris market potential index. However, much of the wage effect is driven by the income and employment density of the municipality’s own market, and not that of surrounding areas. These results point to a combination of large spatial rigidities leading to highly localized effects of market potential, together with wage and productivity effects arising from urban agglomeration economies.
Topic:: Economics, Manufacturing, Wages, and Market Access
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

3496. Inequality and institutional outcomes in Viet Nam: A combined principal components and clustering analysis

Author:: Thu K. Hoang, Klarizze Anne M. Puzon, Hoai Thi Thu Dang, and Rachel M. Gisselquist
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Better understanding of inequality, including its relationship to governance and other key outcomes, is relevant both to academic researchers and to policy-makers. Nevertheless, efforts to establish causal relationships empirically remain hampered by the quality and availability of data, especially for Global South countries at the sub-national level. This paper draws on newly available data on income inequality in Viet Nam at the provincial level to show how unsupervised learning techniques might be used as tools in consideration of the relationship between inequality and governance. While previous empirical work in this area has largely used standard techniques such as regression analysis aimed at establishing causal relationships, this is often hampered by the quality and availability of data. Adopting a different approach, this paper applies K-means clustering and principal components analysis (PCA) to show how unsupervised learning techniques can provide relevant insight into structures and patterns in data. Using PCA, it identifies two groupings of provinces based on similarities in institutional quality measures. K-means analysis points to similar relative inequality levels but substantially different absolute inequality and income levels, suggesting two broad ‘types’ of provinces. The results are suggestive of the positive impact of initial inequality on institutions and that better quality of institutions might reduce inequality for some groups. In general, increased incomes might imply improved inequality and institutional quality outcomes in some cases. A final section considers key limits to such analysis, alongside extensions and further applications.
Topic:: Governance, Inequality, and Institutions
Political Geography:: Vietnam, Southeast Asia, and Viet Nam

3497. Unloved but indispensable: Political parties in Europe

Author:: Paul McCarthy, Thibault Muzergues, and Patrick Quirk
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The rise of political parties in their modern form in Europe has historically been associated with the coming of age of mass politics, and the subsequent need for representation of sectional interests (in other words, the interests of specific social classes). Following the end of World War II in Western Europe, and the end of the Cold War in Central and Eastern Europe, political parties became a central component of European democracies. Scholars often describe the 1960s and 1970s as the golden age of (Western) European democratic parties. However, the honeymoon did not last beyond this period. A long decline has made political parties much less relevant to modern politics, as they were often replaced by personalized politics and the politicization of one-issue social movements throughout the 1990s and 2000s. Political parties today are generally unpopular and distrusted by the wider public. Yet what is remarkable is that despite their decline and a crisis that many had described as terminal, European parties have remained at the center of the game in most countries’ political systems. Perhaps even more importantly, they have proved indispensable for the functioning of democracy in Europe: in the Netherlands, despite an extremely atomized party system and a global rejection of parties, no agreement on a coalition government can be passed without negotiations among them. In Italy, the Five Star Movement soon understood that it needed to convert into a much more classical political party to implement its political program: it built more traditional structures and adopted a clear positioning on the very left-right divide that it had claimed to supersede a few years before. The experience of the past decade has shown that despite their unpopularity, political parties remain indispensable for the functioning of democracies in Europe—when they are present, plural, and organized, democracy is doing well. When they are not, or when the party system is unbalanced, democracies suffer and even backslide. To prove this assertion, this paper will look at four telling examples in recent European history, taking from the experiences of Romania, Spain, France, and Hungary.
Topic:: Politics, Reform, Elections, Political Parties, and Democratic Transitions
Political Geography:: Europe

3498. Russia’s digital tech isolationism: Domestic innovation, digital fragmentation, and the Kremlin’s push to replace Western digital technology

Author:: Justin Sherman
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Digital technology has long been a key component of the Russian government’s power, and for years following the collapse of the Soviet Union there was significant technology entanglement between Russia, the West, and other areas of the world. That changed in the late 2000s and early 2010s with heightened paranoia within the Kremlin about regime security and foreign subversion—and Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine has taken this to new levels. Due to combinations of intense securitization, Western sanctions, foreign businesses exiting Russia, tech “brain drain,” and other factors, digital technological isolationism is now both a reality and a desired goal for Moscow. This report examines the history of the modern Russian state’s approach to digital technology, the internet, and connection and interdependence with the West and foreign countries. It then analyzes the Kremlin’s late 2000s and early 2010s shift to a heavily securitized approach to the internet and its concerted push to develop domestic digital technology—both the successes and many failures. It then examines the 2022 Russian war on Ukraine, how the conflict and resulting events (such as sanctions and brain drain) have shifted Russia’s approach to domestic technology and digital isolation, and where different digital technology segments, such as hardware and software, stand.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Internet, Innovation, Isolationism, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and Ukraine

3499. Effective US government strategies to address China’s information influence

Author:: Kenton Thibaut
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: China’s global influence operations have received increasing attention in the national security community. Numerous congressional hearings, media reports, and academic and industry findings have underscored China’s increased use and resourcing of foreign information manipulation and interference (FIMI) tactics in its covert operations both in the United States and abroad. In response, US government offices the Foreign Malign Influence Center (FMIC), the Global Engagement Center (GEC), and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), among others, have made strides in raising awareness of the issue and charting pathways to increase the resilience of the US information ecosystem to foreign influence. To date, however, the efforts to counter the influence of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have been fragmented. That fragmentation is indicative of a lack of cohesion around the concept of influence operations itself. Across the government and nongovernment sectors alike, there is considerable variation regarding the definition and scope of information manipulation. For example, the Department of State’s (DOS’s) GEC has an expansive definition, which includes “leveraging propaganda and censorship, promoting digital authoritarianism, exploiting international organizations and bilateral partnerships, pairing cooptation and pressure, and exercising control of Chinese-language media.” Others define it more narrowly as disinformation and propaganda spread by a foreign threat actor in a coordinated, inauthentic manner, and largely occurring on social media platforms. This variation is a reflection of the holistic and multifaceted nature of Chinese influence. Coercive tactics and influence operations have long been a central part of China’s strategic tool kit and core to how it engages with the outside world. Because China conceives of the information domain as a space that must be controlled and dominated to ensure regime survival, information operations are part of a much bigger umbrella of influence that spans the economic, political, and social domains. It may be more useful to think of information manipulation as existing within the broader conceptual framework of China’s weaponization of the information domain in service of its goal to gain global influence. As previous work by the Digital Forensic Lab (DFRLab) has shown, China’s approach to the information domain is coordinated and proactive, taking into account the mutually constitutive relationships between the economic, industrial, and geopolitical strategies of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The aim of its efforts is to gain influence—or “discourse power”—with the ultimate goal of decentering US power and leadership on the global stage. One of the main mechanisms through which the CCP seeks to achieve this objective is by focusing on the dominance of information ecosystems. This ecosystem encompasses not only narratives and content that appear in traditional and social media but also the digital infrastructure on which communication systems rely, the policies that govern those systems at the international level, and the diplomatic strategy deployed by Beijing’s operatives abroad to gain buy-in for the CCP’s vision of the global order. The DFRLab’s previous two reports, which explored China’s strategy and the impacts of its operations abroad, found that the United States will not be successful in addressing the challenges of Chinese influence if it sees that influence as separate from the interconnected economic, political, and technical domains in which its strategy is embedded. To this end, the DFRLab hosted a series of one-on-one expert interviews, conducted research and workshops, and held a virtual roundtable discussion with scholars and practitioners with expertise on or experience in addressing authoritarian influence and information operations, US government processes and policies around these issues, and Chinese foreign policy. This issue brief is part of a larger body of work that examines the Chinese government’s interests and capabilities and the impacts of party’s efforts to shape the global information ecosystem. The focus of this report is on how the US government can best respond to those challenges, including the architecture, tools, and strategies that exist for addressing PRC influence and information manipulation, as well as any potential gaps in the government tool kit. This report finds that, to mount the most effective response to Chinese influence and the threat it poses to democratic interests at home and on the international stage, the United States should develop a global information strategy, one that reflects the interconnected nature of regulatory, industrial, and diplomatic policies with regard to the information domain. A core assumption undergirding this concept is that US policymaking space tends to over-index on the threat of information manipulation in particular while under-indexing on the core national interest of fostering a secure, interoperable information environment on a larger scale. The limits of understanding Chinese influence as systemic and part of a broader strategy has sometimes led US response to be pigeonholed as an issue of strategic communications, rather than touching on the information and technology ecosystems, among others, where China focuses its information and influence efforts. Responding to Chinese influence with government messaging is not sufficient to address the complex nature of the challenge and places the United States in a position of reactivity. In short, understanding that the CCP (1) integrates its tech industrial strategy, governance policy, and engagement strategy and (2) connects its approach at home to how it engages abroad, the United States needs to do the same, commensurate with its values. It should not respond tit-for-tat but rather have a collective strategy for a global competition for information that connects its tech strategy to its governance approach to its engagement around the world. That is not to say that a US strategy on information resilience should mirror China’s, or that such a strategy should be developed in response to the PRC’s actions in the information domain. Nor is it to say that the United States should adopt a similar whole-of-government approach to the information domain. There are silos by design in the US system and important legal and normative foundations for the clear delineation of mission between them. What this issue brief argues for is a strategic breaking down of silos to facilitate proactive action versus a dangerous breaking down of legally required silos. This report emphasizes that the United States should articulate how major initiatives like the CHIPS and Science Act, regulatory approaches like the recent executive orders on AI and data security, and the DOS’s recent cyberspace and digital policy strategy are part of a cohesive whole and should be understood and operationalized as such. The strategy should outline what the United States stands for as much as what it is against. This requires that the United States frame its assessment of threat within a broader strategy of what its values are and how those values should be articulated in its regulatory, strategic, and diplomatic initiatives to promote open information environments and shore up information resilience. This includes working with allies and partners to ensure that a free, open, and interoperable internet is a global priority as well as a domestic one; developing common standards for understanding and thresholding foreign influence; and promoting connectivity at home and abroad. One finding of this report is that the United States is already leaning into its strengths and values, including championing policies that support openness and continuing support for civil society. This, along with the awareness of influence operations as the weaponization of the information domain, is a powerful response to authoritarian attacks on the integrity of both the domestic US and global information spaces. The United States has a core national security interest in the existence of a rules-based, orderly, and open information environment. Such an environment facilitates the essential day-to-day tasks related to public diplomacy, the basic expression of rights, and investment in industries of strategic and economic value. Absent a coherent strategy on these core issues related to the integrity of the United States’ information environment that is grounded in an understanding of the interconnected nature of their constitutive parts, the challenges of foreign influence and interference will only continue to grow. This issue brief contains three sections. For sections one and two, experts in different aspects of the PRC’s information strategy addressed two to three main questions; during the course of research, further points were raised that are included in the findings. Each section represents a synthesis of the views expressed in response to these questions. The third section comprises recommendations for the US government based on the findings from the first two sections.
Topic:: Media, Disinformation, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

3500. Adapting US strategy to account for China’s transformation into a peer nuclear power

Author:: David Shullman, John K. Culver, Kitsch Liao, and Samantha Wong
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: China’s rapidly improving nuclear capabilities and expanding nuclear arsenal underpin its recent rise as a nuclear peer power. For the United States and its allies in the Indo-Pacific region, the uncertainty of China’s intentions behind this nuclear expansion poses a major challenge. It necessitates a revisit of the fundamental assumptions underpinning US and allied planning and preparation for a potential conflict with China. The 2022 White House National Security Strategy1 and National Defense Strategy2 identified China as the only competitor with both the intent and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological wherewithal to reshape the international order. The 2022 United States Nuclear Posture Review noted how China has embarked on an ambitious expansion, modernization, and diversification of its nuclear forces and established a nascent nuclear triad.3 The report further assessed that Beijing will likely possess at least 1,000 deliverable warheads by the end of the decade.4 China also sustains extensive and ambitious space operations. According to the Department of Defense’s 2022 China Military Power Report5, as of 2021, China’s 260 intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) satellites were the largest collection of such constellations globally other than the United States’. The transformation of China’s military capabilities no longer represents the linear, stepwise modernization of an outmoded military that characterized the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) for the past two decades. Since the PLA launched its major internal command and service restructuring in 2015, previous doctrinal and teaching publications acquired and exploited by Western analysts are out of date and likely declining in relevance. By extension, much of the Western analysis of PLA plans, operations, and concepts of deterrence and escalation control are also likely to be out of date. China’s rapid expansion of strategic warfighting capabilities (i.e., nuclear forces, space/counterspace systems, and cyber/information operations) represents tremendous discontinuity in the pace, scope, and scale of the PLA’s transformation, necessitating a major US reassessment of Chinese strategy, doctrine, and warfighting operations. The commonly accepted notion that deliberate Chinese nuclear force modernization is characterized as “running faster to stay in the same place” to sustain a minimal retaliatory posture is assessed to have evolved. China now has a higher likelihood of using its newfound nuclear power to more actively deter or compel6 its opponents and safeguard its core interests. This includes perceived external threats that could negatively impact domestic political interests. As a step in this reassessment, this project reevaluated China’s strategy, doctrine, and warfighting concepts in light of its ongoing rapid transformation into a peer nuclear power, examined implications of this assessment for future US contingencies in the Indo-Pacific region, and produced several actionable findings and recommendations for US government decision-makers that can be addressed in the next five- to ten-year horizon.
Topic:: Defense Policy, National Security, Nuclear Weapons, Conflict, and Missile Defense
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS