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601. Make stuff here…or else: A framework for deciding what Australia must produce, repair or regenerate domestically

Author:
Steven Camilleri
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
Australia’s prosperity rests on systems that appear permanent but depend on continuous, often unseen, inputs that arrive from beyond its borders. That model worked in an era of stable global trade, but recent shocks, from the Covid-19 pandemic to geopolitical disruption, have exposed a structural weakness. Australia must now shift from optimising for cost to securing continuity, and it must do so with urgency and discipline. This paper draws on public policy documents, industry case examples and published data to frame resilience as a practical national problem. This work is a follow-up to the 2025 ‘Make Stuff Here’—a blueprint to reinvigorate Australia’s economy. This report argues that national resilience is not an abstract policy ambition but a measurable engineering problem. At its core is the concept of the Sovereignty Countdown: the time a critical system can continue operating if external supply is disrupted. Every essential function—water, energy, fuel, food logistics, communications—operates within this constraint. When the countdown expires, continuity depends on external actors, and sovereignty narrows in practical terms. Australia currently operates within a dangerous lag. Policy has pivoted towards resilience, but physical capability hasn’t yet caught up. Decades of rational, efficiency-driven decisions have hollowed out the domestic production layer—the industrial ecosystem that repairs, replenishes and sustains national systems. In its place, Australia relies heavily on storage and logistics. Those extend time but don’t regenerate supply. When supply chains falter, the nation shift s from steady-state operation to drawing down finite reserves. The report introduces a clear framework: Production sustains systems. Systems deliver essentials. Weakness in the production layer creates cascading risk across the entire system. Case studies in water-treatment chemicals, liquid fuels and fertiliser demonstrate that vulnerabilities operate on different timelines, but all converge on the same strategic reality. Some failures emerge in days, others in months, but each reflects a countdown that can be measured, managed and extended. The central policy recommendation is the establishment of a National Resilience Test. Governments and critical-infrastructure operators must identify key inputs, quantify consumption rates and calculate how long systems can endure without external supply. These countdowns should be benchmarked against a defined National Survival Threshold, and gaps should be treated as formal strategic vulnerabilities requiring remediation. Closing those gaps requires a structured mix of interventions: targeted stockpiling, system redesign for substitution, and, critically, rebuilding domestic production capability where resupply timelines exceed available buffers. This doesn’t require autarky, as trusted, reliable and secure partnerships will continue to be a mandatory feature of Australia’s national resilience. As set out in the 2026 National Defence Strategy, strengthening self-reliance and sovereignty requires the combination of identifying which inputs must be sustained locally to preserve national continuity and the identification of key reliable international partnerships. Those must be free from coercion and available even in times of crisis. For policymakers and the private sector, the implication is clear. Resilience carries a cost, but so does unpriced exposure. Australia can either invest deliberately in sovereign capability now or accept constrained choices later. The task ahead is practical and achievable: measure endurance, define acceptable risk, and build the industrial depth needed to ensure that continuity rests on capability, not assumptions
Topic:
Manufacturing, Resilience, Supply Chains, and Research and Development
Political Geography:
Australia

602. Markets as the new front line: fusing Australia’s economic statecraft

Author:
James Tennant, James Corera, Alice Hudson, and John Coyne
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
Episodes over the past decade—including China’s trade measures against Australia and Japan, Russia’s manipulation of European gas supplies, and the tightening of global controls over critical minerals—demonstrate how economic levers are being used to impose costs and reshape incentives without crossing traditional thresholds of conflict. This has included for the purposes of coercing nations into tolerating military aggression, cyber-attacks and foreign interference, or particularly in the case of China also creating monopolitistic dependencies. More recently, the US has employed overt economic instruments, such as tariffs, as tools of strategic leverage and industrial policy—underscoring not an equivalence of intent or method, but the extent to which the use of markets for geopolitical ends is becoming embedded across the international system. Australia isn’t starting from scratch in responding to these market realities, with substantial foundations already in place. Australia’s challenge isn’t necessarily creating new instruments, nor simply coordinating disparate capabilities across government departments, agencies or sectors of the economy. Rather, the task is to embed deeper integration and fusion of the tools and capabilities that already exist. This report argues that doing so requires strengthening the connective tissue between policy, intelligence, economic and security functions so that information flows more freely, preparedness is built collectively, and joint capabilities can be brought to bear under pressure. In practice, this means a system better able to anticipate pressure, absorb shocks and align economic and security decision-making in more ways that reinforce Australia’s long-term resilience—while operating at speed and across multiple fronts concurrently. Ultimately, in a system as complex and contested as today’s global economy, this report suggests that success depends on clear strategy, disciplined escalation thresholds and integrated decision-making. When nations fail to align intent, tools and execution, they do more than miss opportunities—they risk ceding ground by default. The recommendations set out in this report offer Australia a way to integrate the strengths it already has—its institutions, regulations, alliances and industrial strengths—into a genuinely national capability for economic statecraft, better allowing Australia to act in time, with purpose, and on its own terms.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, National Security, European Union, Cybersecurity, and Economy
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Australia, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

603. Hedging our bets: A potential Japanese option for managing risk in the AUKUS Optimal Pathway

Author:
Richard Gray
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
Australia’s ‘Optimal Pathway’ to acquiring and maintaining a nuclear-propelled, conventionally armed submarine capability from the 2030s and beyond has been agreed by all three AUKUS nations and is a matter of public record.1 This paper is supportive of pursuing that path. To be clear: AUKUS represents the best opportunity for Australia to acquire an essential strategic capability underpinning its future defence. However, the Optimal Pathway has significant cumulative risk involved. There are three major complex enterprises that must all align if Australia is not to experience a serious gap in its sovereign submarine capability in following this path. Those are the Collins-class life-of-type extension (LOTE), the transfer of three or more Virginia-class nuclear attack submarines (SSNs) from the US, and Australia’s construction—with UK and US assistance—of the SSN-AUKUS, which is to be a new class of SSN submarines for the Royal Australian Navy (RAN). Australia’s defence plans require a sovereign submarine capability to be effective. ‘Sovereign’ in this sense means under Australia’s national control. The potential capability gap that we’re describing as a risk is—in terms of submarine acquisition—an awkward one. It could emerge suddenly. It’s probably too long a period for Australia to run the risk of being without an essential capability, but it isn’t a long time to acquire and operate a new class of submarine. To assist in managing these three areas of separate but compounding significant risk, Australia should explore the backup option of leasing or otherwise rapidly acquiring small numbers of an advanced conventional submarine capability from Japan. Japan has a comparatively large, ‘young’, highly capable conventional submarine fleet. It has two active production lines that together turn out an advanced submarine each year and have the potential to ramp up production even further. It’s also one of Australia’s few international partners with the depth of trust and a similar view of the international security situation necessary to make this option a viable one. Given the depth of the request that Australia would be making of Japan, engagement needs to begin now for this option to be a realistic possibility. The only type of submarine that can meet all of Australia’s requirements is an SSN; but, in its absence and to bridge any gap that emerges as best we can until one becomes available, it’s necessary to investigate alternatives to cover a major known contingency. A capable sovereign submarine capability is a core requirement for Australia’s defence over the next two decades, and there are known risks that could prevent that happening. Exploring a relatively modest alternative such as leasing from Japan seems prudent—and it needs to begin now if it’s to be useful in time.
Topic:
Risk, Defense Industry, Research and Development, and AUKUS
Political Geography:
Japan, Australia, and Asia-Pacific

604. The Sino-Russian partnership: why it matters for Australian security and defence

Author:
Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
The Sino-Russian ‘no limits’ partnership has become central to an emerging anti-Western axis that aims to weaken the West and counter the liberal international order that has buttressed Australia’s post-1945 peace, prosperity and security. Even though it is not a formal alliance, the depth and breadth of strategic cooperations between China and Russia—across military, economic, defence, diplomatic and technological domains—makes the partnership the most important bilateral one for both, and one that has severe strategic consequences for Australia. The partnership between these two totalitarian states is not new, but Beijing and Moscow have intensified their cooperation since the announcement of a ‘no limits’ partnership in February 2022. Their collaboration encompasses joint military exercises including naval, air and combined arms, technology transfers, coordinated propaganda affecting social cohesion and stability, efforts at building alternative parochial technological and economic coalitions. Russia’s combat experience and defence technology transfers have been particularly helpful in accelerating China’s military modernisation, which in turn have exacerbated regional insecurities in the Indo-Pacific. The Sino-Russian partnership is also a critical subset of a wider authoritarian grouping that includes Iran and North Korea, whose combined military power, including nuclear capabilities, have the potential to further destabilise regional and global security. Within this, China has emerged as the decisive enabler of Russia’s and now Iran’s military operations. Overall, the Sino-Russian partnership is durable, gaining more strategic and military muscle power and thus directly threatens Australia’s strategic environment, prompting sustained investment in national defence and foreign alliances. This ASPI report examines the contemporary trajectory and drivers of China-Russia partnership. This will be followed by a detailed analysis of China-Russia defence and security cooperation, which has seen qualitative and quantitative enhancement in the last decade. The final section charts the current trendlines into the future, drawing out the implications for Australia, the liberal international order and strategic stability, while identifying possible pragmatic choices for Canberra to boost its security and defence.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, National Security, United Nations, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Asia, and Australia

605. Darwin Dialogue 2026 – From exposure to endurance: competitive architecture for high-ESG mineral-specific supply chains

Author:
John Coyne, Francesca Ciuffetelli, and Iris Reinhold
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
The Darwin Dialogue has become one of the Indo-Pacific’s leading forums for critical minerals, bringing together senior leaders from government, industry, finance, defence and strategic policy to address one of the defining economic and security challenges of our time: how democratic nations build trusted, resilient and competitive mineral supply chains. The 2026 Darwin Dialogue brought together participants from Australia, the United States, Japan, India, the Republic of Korea, Canada and partners across Europe and the Indo-Pacific to examine a hard reality. Governments increasingly recognise the risks created by concentrated critical-mineral supply chains, but recognition alone does not reduce dependence. The challenge now is translating strategic ambition into industrial capability. Drawing on discussions held under the Chatham House Rule, this report argues that the era of generic critical-minerals policy is ending. Rare earths, lithium, nickel, graphite, gallium, antimony and copper each present different vulnerabilities, market dynamics and strategic challenges. Effective resilience requires mineral-specific approaches that align finance, infrastructure, processing capability, workforce development, demand signals and allied coordination. The report introduces the concept of competitive endurance architecture—the deliberate design of industrial systems capable of sustaining trusted, high-ESG supply chains under prolonged geopolitical and market pressure. It examines the growing gap between political announcements and industrial execution, the importance of midstream processing capability, the role of demand and offtake, strategic market distortion, trusted supply chains, allied cooperation and Northern Australia’s role as a strategic industrial platform. For policymakers, industry leaders, investors and strategic practitioners, the report provides practical recommendations for moving beyond vulnerability analysis and towards the industrial systems needed to secure long-term economic resilience and national security. Read the report to understand how Australia and its partners can move from exposure to endurance.
Topic:
Strategic Competition, Emerging Technology, Rare earth elements (REEs), and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:
Australia, Indo-Pacific, and Northern Australia

606. Reading the room: Redesigning intelligence product for the AI age

Author:
Chris Taylor
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
Reading the room argues that Australia’s National Intelligence Community faces a growing mismatch between how intelligence is produced and how it is now consumed in an AI-shaped information environment. While intelligence collection and analysis have advanced significantly, the formats, delivery methods and user experience of intelligence products have changed far less. As ministers, policymakers and operational leaders increasingly expect information that is faster, more interactive, more tailored and easier to use, the report warns that intelligence risks losing relevance unless it adapts deliberately. Three plausible scenarios are explored: secure conversational AI interfaces that allow users to query intelligence holdings directly; hyper-personalised intelligence products tailored to different decision-makers; and automated sanitisation and dissemination that expands the reach of intelligence across government and to partners. These opportunities promise greater timeliness, relevance and utility, but also carry major risks, including bias, hallucination, reduced explainability, weakened accountability, politicisation and the erosion of shared understanding. The report concludes that inaction is not a viable option. Instead, the NIC should redesign intelligence products around consumer needs, learn from allies and other knowledge sectors, strengthen workforce and governance arrangements, and integrate AI in ways that preserve human judgement, trust and national security advantage.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Intelligence, National Security, Cybersecurity, Artificial Intelligence, and Research and Development
Political Geography:
Global Focus

607. The EU-Australia security and defence agreement: not a pact but a partnership

Author:
Bart Hogeveen
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
On 24 March 2026, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and Australian Prime Minister Albanese signed the EU-Australia Security and Defence Partnership. The partnership represents a significant step in EU–Australia relations, elevating cooperation beyond its traditional focus on trade and investment. However, as with previous EU-Australia initiatives, its value will ultimately depend on whether it delivers concrete outcomes rather than remaining a largely declaratory framework. This Explainer describes what the partnership entails and highlights what it needs to become successful and impactful.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Partnerships, Cybersecurity, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:
Europe, Australia, and Asia-Pacific

608. Disruption and opportunity: Australia and critical minerals in a changing global order

Author:
Ian Satchwell
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
In a world defined by accelerating geo‑economic competition aimed at reducing China’s control of critical‑minerals markets and supply chains, Australia’s critical‑minerals ambitions hinge on a powerful but tenuous assumption: that the nation will evolve into a major supplier to the US—its largest investment partner and most consequential strategic ally. Yet today’s market dynamics, policy fragmentation among partners and the US’s own inward‑looking minerals strategy mean that outcome is far from guaranteed. What is clear, however, is that Australia enters this contest with world‑leading geological endowments, a global footprint of successful mining operations, and hard‑won capabilities built over more than 60 years of modern mining and processing. Australian companies aren’t just domestic producers—they’re global investors, operators and technology leaders. Demand for their products is only rising as the energy transition, digitisation, automation and defence modernisation accelerate. But market opportunity alone is no longer enough. Australia’s ability to convert its mineral strength into strategic advantage is being tested by volatile global prices—often shaped by market manipulation—contradictory policies among like‑minded nations and rising competition from other mineral‑rich nations. Domestically, high construction and energy costs, an uncompetitive company tax system, acute skills shortages, regulatory uncertainty and long approval timelines threaten to blunt Australia’s competitive edge. At the same time, commercial and security partners across Europe, Asia and North America increasingly look to Australia not only for resources but also for leadership—technical, environmental, commercial and strategic. Many countries, along with the EU, have signed agreements with Australia to build more secure, sustainable and diversified critical‑minerals supply chains. This report argues that Australia must now pivot from signing partnerships to fully activating them. That means prioritising the like-minded partners and markets where real supply‑chain integration and volume markets are achievable. China, however, will remain an indispensable market for Australian minerals. Crucially, Australia must recalibrate its approach to onshoring. Policies built solely around domestic downstream ambitions risk underestimating the reality of global supply chains and overestimating Australia’s cost competitiveness. The more strategic path is to position Australia as a dominant force across multi‑node critical‑minerals supply chains—linking Australian concentrates and intermediate products, production of Australian companies operating abroad, trusted partners’ processing, manufacturing and technology ecosystems, and of course end users. To seize this moment, Australia should also restore the predictability and competitiveness of its own investment environment. Ultimately, the choice before Australia isn’t whether to be a critical‑minerals superpower—it’s whether to be an indispensable node in the world’s most important supply chains. That requires ambition, disciplined policymaking, deeper strategic partnerships and a relentless focus on execution.
Topic:
European Union, Artificial Intelligence, Research and Development, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Australia, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

609. Enlargement as security policy: The Western Balkans between geopolitical competition, internal volatility, and European responsibility.

Author:
Vedran Džihić
Publication Date:
07-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
European enlargement policy towards the Western Balkans is at a strategic turning point. While for over two decades enlargement was primarily understood as an instrument of democratic transformation, since Russia's attack on Ukraine in 2022 it has increasingly been seen as an integral part of European security and geopolitics. At the same time, the regional environment has fundamentally changed: the Western Balkans are now the stage for growing geopolitical competition between the EU, Russia, and China, while the role of the US is also changing under a more transactional foreign policy. In parallel, autocratization, institutional gridlock, and political polarization in several states of the region are exacerbating domestic political volatility. This policy brief argues that precisely this convergence of external geopolitical competition and internal instability makes EU enlargement a central instrument of European security policy, but only if it consistently links democratic transformation and security interests. The analysis shows that the greatest security policy risks today arise less from classic interstate conflicts than from the erosion of democratic institutions, societal polarization, and increasing vulnerability to external influence. Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, and Kosovo illustrate in different ways how domestic crises are further exacerbated by a more volatile international order. At the same time, there is a growing danger that the EU, in the name of geopolitical stability, will once again tolerate authoritarian or illiberal political actors, thereby undermining precisely those democratic foundations upon which sustainable European and regional security and transformation depend. Enlargement as a security policy can therefore only be successful if democratic resilience, the rule of law, and societal transformation are understood as prerequisites for security policy, and not as secondary objectives.
Topic:
European Union, Geopolitics, Regional Politics, and Enlargement
Political Geography:
Europe and Western Balkans

610. The War in Ukraine: The Moment of Truth in 2026?

Author:
Loïc Simonet
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
The prospect of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine in 2026 appears highly uncertain, due to the incompatibility of the territorial claims of both parties, as well as Russia's “no go” regarding security guarantees that Europe plans to offer Ukraine. However, a rising acceptance of territorial concessions by the war-weary Ukrainians, as well as the growing “Iranization” of the Russian economy, are two factors pushing for the end of hostilities. The possibility that the grinding war of attrition in Ukraine will spill over into a broader war between Europe and Russia remains a daunting prospect. The strike of an Oreshnik intermediate-range missile close to the borders of the EU and NATO was described as an unacceptable escalation and evokes the threat of nuclear war. Caught between a revisionist Kremlin and an indifferent—if not openly contemptuous—White House, Europeans are constantly outmaneuvered and often marginalized. They strive to convince the Americans that the conflict cannot be resolved by simple territorial and financial concessions, and to ensure that the US remains on the side of Ukraine's allies. 2026 might see the conflict entering a 'limbo' between 'war' and 'peace'; a situation which Russia might exploit to continue destabilizing Ukraine.
Topic:
European Union, Negotiation, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

611. Declining US Support for Israel: From Bipartisan Consensus to Generational Fracture

Author:
Johannes Späth
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
In 2026, US–Israeli relations will remain strategically close, but a key long-term shift is underway: broad US public legitimacy for Israel is eroding, especially among Democrats and younger cohorts. Polling data indicates a sharp decline in Israel favorability and growing opposition to additional military and economic aid, with signs that skepticism is spreading beyond Democratic voters. In the short term, policy change will likely remain limited due to entrenched elite consensus and institutional ties, but extraordinary or escalatory support is becoming increasingly politically costly. Over time, declining public legitimacy and shifting strategic priorities may contribute to a gradual erosion of US diplomatic and military backing, with wider implications for regional security.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Public Opinion, and Legitimacy
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

612. Emerging Regional Architecture of Cooperation in Central Asia

Author:
Kristin Höltge
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
Central Asia has defied early conflict predictions by moving towards peaceful regional integration through treaties, hydro-diplomacy, and institutional cooperation. The C5 framework (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan), now expanding to include Azerbaijan, reflects growing regional unity and subjectivity. This self-driven shift from hotspot to hub offers valuable lessons for conflict-prone regions on how local diplomacy can replace external intervention. However, internal imbalances or external shocks still pose risks to this nascent regionalization.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Natural Resources, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Central Asia

613. The Great AI Game: The Race That Isn't One.

Author:
Johannes Späth
Publication Date:
07-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
This policy analysis maps the infrastructure underpinning Artificial Intelligence and the geopolitical competition forming around it. Its central argument is that this competition is not a single race in which all states are climbing the same ladder at different speeds. Rather, it is two distinct contests, with different rules, different stakes, and therefore different strategies for winning.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Geopolitics, Artificial Intelligence, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

614. Governing Without Consequence: Israel as a High-Visibility Indicator in 2026

Author:
Osnat Lubrani
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
This report identifies a global shift toward impunity-based governance, in which political leaders increasingly neutralize legal, political, and reputational accountability while preserving formal democratic and legal frameworks. Impunity is treated not as an aberration, but as a governing instrument, enabled by legal restructuring, institutional capture, and external political shielding. Israel in 2026 constitutes a particularly revealing diagnostic case, not because it is unique, but because it concentrates multiple drivers of impunity-based governance at a critical juncture: acute leadership legal jeopardy, deep domestic polarization, accelerating institutional restructuring, and reliance on external political shielding, all in the context of consequential elections in both Israel and the United States. Current evidence points toward partial consolidation of impunity under fragmented legitimacy, rather than decisive correction or full authoritarian consolidation in 2026. Legislative acceleration, coalition dynamics, and sustained external protection suggest a narrowing window for institutional reversal absent major political or external shocks. The most decisive signals to monitor concern the irreversibility of, rather than intent behind impunity-based governance, including enacted legal constraints on judicial and media independence, coalition durability, elite sidelining, and the continuation of external political shielding despite visible democratic erosion.
Topic:
Governance, Impunity, Accountability, Legitimacy, and Justice
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

615. The Personal Is Still Political: Why the Rise of Misogyny Threatens Democracy

Author:
Annika Scharnagl
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
Misogyny is becoming structurally normalized, shaping political discourse, digital environments, and institutional practices despite formal progress on gender equality, as democratic backsliding creates permissive conditions that render this dynamic bidirectional and mutually reinforcing. Digital platforms and emerging technologies amplify backlash dynamics, accelerating the spread and social acceptance of anti-gender narratives. Rising polarization and economic insecurity are translating personal grievances into political backlash, weakening social cohesion and democratic participation. The future of democratic resilience depends on containment measures achieved through coordinated governance, education, and norm-setting that affirm gender equality as a core democratic value.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Democracy, Misogyny, and Digital Platforms
Political Geography:
Global Focus

616. The Degradation of Iran’s Proxy Model

Author:
Lina Khatib
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
For decades, Iran pursued a strategy of “exporting the revolution” through the sponsorship of armed non-state actors across the Middle East. Framed as an “axis of resistance” against Israel and the United States, this network enabled Tehran to project influence across Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Gaza while limiting the risk of direct Iranian confrontation. This paper argues that the model has entered a phase of structural degradation. The October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, together with the regional fallout that followed, accelerated the military, financial, and political weakening of Iran’s proxy architecture, contributing to a broader shift in the regional balance of power. Although Iran’s proxy system was already under pressure before October 2023 from sanctions, military attrition, and mounting isolation, these factors had not produced a decisive strategic shift. Iran sustained its influence through coercive networks. After October 7, however, these vulnerabilities deepened. Military pressure, intelligence penetration, leadership losses, financial constriction, and declining legitimacy exposed the limits of proxy-based power projection. Rather than serving as a coherent deterrent architecture, Iran’s regional network increasingly became a source of strategic exposure and fragility. The paper traces this erosion across Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq, with Syria serving as an important logistical backdrop. In Lebanon, Hezbollah suffered military attrition, leadership losses, declining domestic legitimacy, and the collapse of the Syrian corridor that had underpinned its strategic depth. In Yemen, the Houthis’ effort to raise their regional profile through attacks linked to the Gaza war exposed the limits of their capacity and increased their diplomatic and financial vulnerability. In Iraq, Iran-backed militias became more fragmented, with factions diverging in their responses to escalation and with many increasingly prioritizing local political and economic survival over coordinated service to Tehran’s agenda. Across these arenas, the paper finds not adaptation but erosion: Iran’s proxies have become less effective and harder for Tehran to instrumentalize coherently. Proxy warfare once offered Tehran a means of deterrence and influence. Over time, however, it generated familiar problems of overextension: weakened cohesion, divergent local interests, coordination failures, reputational damage, and growing vulnerability to disruption. Expansion produced scale, but not resilience. The paper concludes that the Middle East is moving away from a hybrid order shaped by Iranian-backed militias toward a more state-centered, though still fragile, security landscape. This shift may create openings for states to reclaim authority and rebuild institutions less constrained by Iranian coercive influence, but it also carries serious risks, including militia fragmentation, local instability, and new security vacuums. Whether this transition produces greater stability will depend on stronger state capacity, better governance, and sustained political and economic recovery.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Deterrence, Proxy Groups, Regional Politics, and Axis of Resistance
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Yemen, Lebanon, and Syria

617. When Unarmed Women Hold the Frontline: Implications for Policy

Author:
Shalaka Thakur
Publication Date:
08-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The tropes around women in conflict are familiar: victims to be protected, peacebuilders to be empowered or, exceptionally, armed perpetrators. The women of Manipur fit none of them. Unarmed and organised at neighbourhood level, they operate the checkpoints, hold night vigils, stage blockades and run fundraising networks that, in their eyes, defend their community. These are the same repertoires that have in the past made the Meitei Meira Paibi ('women torch-bearers') internationally celebrated anti-militarisation activists. However, in the context of the current conflict the same repertoires have been sustaining an ethnic war. Kuki women, on the other side of this conflict also use similar strategies. This brief is based on field research in Manipur, northeast India, near the country’s border with Myanmar. It draws on group discussions with around 180 Meitei women at checkpoints and night vigils, and interviews with security forces, non-state armed groups and civil society on both sides of the ongoing ethnic conflict between Meitei and Kuki communities. The brief shows that women’s agency in conflict is malleable: the same mobilisation that builds peace can be redirected to wage war. Policy on women, peace and security has barely begun to grapple with what this means.
Topic:
Civil Society, Women, Armed Conflict, Protection, and Agency
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Myanmar

618. Move Fast and Scale: A Brief Insiders' History of the Replicator Initiative

Author:
Kathleen Hicks and Aaron Sherman
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Former U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks and former Speechwriter to the Deputy Secretary of Defense Aaron Sherman provide an insider account of the Replicator Initiative, tracing its origins, purpose, early implementation, and preliminary outcomes. This initiative to rapidly scale needed military capabilities offers important lessons for reform, from goal-setting and aligning incentives to implementation, feedback, and iteration.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Government, Military Affairs, and Defense Spending
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

619. Military Sahel regimes challenged by EU-based diaspora

Author:
Lotte Pelckmans
Publication Date:
08-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
As military governments in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger tighten their grip on power, political opposition is increasingly moving beyond the Sahel’s borders. This DIIS Working Paper examines how West African diasporas in France and Belgium challenge the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) and how movements such as the Alliance des Démocrates du Sahel (ADS) are taking high political risks from exile. The paper analyses what this means for sovereignty, authoritarianism and Europe’s relationship with the changing Sahel.
Topic:
Sovereignty, Diaspora, European Union, and Legitimacy
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Mali, Sahel, Niger, and Burkina Faso

620. Selling the Risks: Lessons on Security Modernization from Canada’s Contract Security Program

Author:
Oliver Jones, Karena Kyne, and Alexandre Picard
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Modernization, a watchword in governance and public administration, is an imperative for security organizations that need to adapt their outlooks and processes to an increasingly unsettled world. Yet rigid processes obstruct modernization.
Topic:
Security, Governance, Modernization, and Public Administration
Political Geography:
Canada and North America

621. LGBTQ+ soldiers and the democratic future of Ukraine

Author:
Di Yehorova and Karmen Tornius
Publication Date:
08-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Thousands of LGBTQ+ Ukrainians serve on the frontlines yet remain legally unprotected. Amid financial and legislative uncertainty, queer organisations build vital wartime and veteran infrastructures to provide psychological, legal and safety support.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Democracy, LGBT+, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

622. The impossibility of African Union conflict prevention

Author:
Corine van Emmerik
Publication Date:
08-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The African Union (AU) has built the most sophisticated conflict prevention architecture of any regional organisation, yet prevention remains structurally sidelined. Even though the AU has a mandate for conflict prevention it has no power to enforce it.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Africa Union, and Regional Organizations
Political Geography:
Africa

623. Intra-urban waterscapes and household welfare in Kumasi, Ghana

Author:
Abel Gwaindepi and Samuel Baidoo
Publication Date:
07-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Across Kumasi, Ghana, households rarely rely on a single water source. Whether or not a home has a formal utility connection, most residents also use sachet water, boreholes, and private vendors - a hybrid system built out of necessity. This is the picture that emerges from an original household survey of 1,791 homes across three neighbourhoods in metropolitan Kumasi, Asawase, Ejisu, and Ayuom, conducted as part of the Multiple Waterscapes in Urban Ghana (MUWUG) project. The survey reveals a striking pattern: the one community with a formal utility connection to the Ghana Water Company Limited (GWCL), Asawase, reports lower satisfaction, more water related conflict, and measurable income losses than the two unconnected neighbourhoods, which get by largely on self organised alternatives. The policy implications are significant. Formal and informal water systems both matter, and connection status alone is a poor proxy for welfare. What ultimately matters is whether the water reaching households is reliable, affordable and safe. Universal access remains a legitimate goal, and citizens are right to demand formal connections. However, the evidence suggests that in rapidly growing cities, where government and NGO resources are often constrained, policy should be grounded in urban realities. This means recognising and building on the hybrid water systems that households already rely on, rather than treating them as fragmentation to be engineered away.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Water, Cities, and Household
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

624. From wartime solidarity to deeper economic partnership between Denmark and Ukraine

Author:
Maria Repko
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Denmark’s military leadership in support for Ukraine has not yet translated into economic cooperation in the shape of expanded trade or investments. Targeted trade and investment paired with strategic labour market measures could convert wartime solidarity into a deeper economic partnership. Since the outbreak of the war, Denmark has been one of the most vocal supporters of Ukraine in the EU. According to Kiel Institute data,1 globally it is the fourth-largest supplier of military aid, the fifth-largest in terms of total bilateral allocations and relative to GDP it ranks first. Examining developments across the EU’s four freedoms – goods, services, capital and people – this brief shows that despite the strong military support, economic cooperation and trade depth remain limited. According to 2024 data,2 the total trading turnover between Denmark and Ukraine is very low. Denmark is only the 34th supplying market and 44th export market for Ukraine. For Denmark, Ukraine is the 47th largest market both as a supplier and as an export destination. Foreign direct investments boost trade, as can be seen in practice, but it is very selective and focused on a few sectors, not central to the Danish industrial core (except for food and agricultural processing). Moreover, labour market integration of refugees is under-strategised.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Economics, Partnerships, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Denmark

625. Denmark’s efforts to fight torture and corruption abroad

Author:
Ole Therkildsen and David Lyndorff Paris
Publication Date:
08-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
This DIIS Working Paper investigates Denmark's efforts to combat torture and corruption in a dozen partner countries between 2000 and 2023. The analytical framework used distinguishes different types of torture and corruption and their often hidden features and interlinkages. However, both abuses are rooted in their political economies and governance failures. Drawing mainly on official documents, evaluations and international research, the main findings are that both scourges remain persistent and widespread across partner countries; that Denmark has been especially active in UN norm-setting against torture; that links between international norm-work and implementation on the ground are weak in both the bilateral and international activities that are supported; and that impacts are hard to assess because few independent evaluations of impact exist, including in relevant NGO work. Local ownership is essential in fighting the two abuses, as aid achieves little on its own. This is where improvements to Danish approaches to fighting torture and corruption can reduce the current gap between Danish self-perceptions and realities on the ground.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Corruption, Development, and Torture
Political Geography:
Europe and Denmark

626. Strategic autonomy and Europe's new logic of intervention

Author:
Maria-Louise Clausen and Peter Albrecht
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The war in Ukraine and renewed transatlantic uncertainty are reshaping what European intervention means. Where the EU once exported crisis management and statebuilding, it is now increasingly financing arms production and embedding itself in a wartime economy. At the same time the EU is moving beyond traditional forms of external support. It is financing production directly within Ukraine's defence industry, training more than 87,000 Ukrainian soldiers on European soil, embedding defence innovation offices in Kyiv, and incorporating Ukrainian battlefield innovation into Europe’s emerging defence architecture. Ukraine’s particular combination of scale, geographic proximity, and existential stakes makes it a special case. Yet the adaptations it has generated may be opening the door to a broader reorientation in how the EU conceives of and conducts external intervention, one centred less on crisis management and statebuilding than on industrial integration, operational adaptation and strategic coordination.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Strategic Autonomy, and Defense Spending
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

627. Checkpoints, not territory: rethinking conflict

Author:
Peer Schouten
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The Taliban took over Afghanistan one border post at a time. The Congolese rebel group M23 built its financial base by sitting on a single crossing point between eastern DRC and Uganda, extracting tens of thousands of dollars a month without controlling significant territory. Yemen’s Houthis outperform the Yemeni Government by offering a more predictable experience at precisely the checkpoints that matter most to traders. This brief draws on a multi-country comparative research project — covering Yemen, Afghanistan, DR Congo, South Sudan, Myanmar, and countries in the Sahel and West Africa — to argue that checkpoints shine a light on conflict dynamics in ways that policymakers have barely begun to explore.
Topic:
Governance, Armed Conflict, Global Economy, and Checkpoints
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, South Asia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Somalia, and Myanmar

628. Repairing under fire - recovery chain constraints on Ukraine’s energy resilience

Author:
Izabela Surwillo
Publication Date:
07-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The 2025–2026 winter points to growing structural constraints on Ukraine’s energy system resilience. The key question is whether damaged infrastructure can be restored faster than Russia can disable it. This depends on the full recovery chain – from procurement to installation, commissioning and protection. Air defence and operational adaptation remain central, but delays across this chain increasingly constrain recovery under sustained attack.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Resilience, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

629. Sweden’s vaccine diplomacy, procurement and distribution

Author:
Rachel Irwin
Publication Date:
07-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
This paper analyses how Sweden worked to procure Covid-19 vaccines to cover the needs of Swedish residents, as well as how Sweden engaged in the global pandemic response and efforts to ensure global vaccine distribution. The paper also examines how tensions between national health security and international solidarity were navigated in public discourse during the pandemic.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Public Health, Vaccine, COVID-19, and Vaccine Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Europe and Sweden

630. Hawks remain hawks, and doves remain doves

Author:
Hans Mouritzen
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
This DIIS Working Paper analyses convergences and divergences in Nordic countries’ relations with Russia since the Cold War. It then reflects on the main determinants behind European states’ Russia policies: their location in relation to Russia and their historical experiences with Russia Since these determinants are ultrastable, the hawks remain hawks and the doves remain doves, and some stay in-between.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and History
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Eurasia

631. How USAID's exit could reshape northern Kenya's conservancies

Author:
Caleb Braham, Ceciliah Njagi, Emma Bostrup, Eric Kioko, and Jane Mutune
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
USAID’s withdrawal is reshaping green transition initiatives across Africa. In northern Kenya, the Northern Rangelands Trust was hit immediately – highlighting dynamics likely to emerge wherever donor‑dependent environmental institutions operate. The Northern Rangelands Trust (NRT) is a nonprofit umbrella organisation supporting 47 community conservancies in northern and coastal Kenya, as well as parts of Uganda. Since its founding in 2004, the organisation has operated under the motto ‘Transforming lives, conserving nature.’ Today, it employs more than 1,300 people and claims to benefit over 700,000 individuals. Over the past decade USAID has been one of the NRT’s key donors. Internal financial summaries indicate cooperative agreements totalling approximately USD 34 million, of which around USD 13 million had been disbursed prior to the 2025 suspension. The funding freeze occurs at a time when the NRT is already under intense scrutiny. The organisation has faced repeated allegations of human rights abuses and violations of community land rights linked to its conservation and security activities. These controversies reflect broader tensions surrounding international conservation and development partnerships in northern Kenya, where land disputes have generated legal challenges and local opposition. In 2025, the Environment and Land Court of Kenya ruled that the NRT’s establishment of the Biliqo Bulesa and Cherab conservancies violated community land rights, highlighting the legal and procedural risks associated with such interventions. Despite these criticisms, the NRT leadership and its remaining donors continue to support the conservancy model as an appropriate mechanism for conservation and local development. As noted by a senior NRT officer: ‘You won’t get 100 percent of people supporting the conservancy model. Ten to fifteen percent may oppose it due to different interests, and competitors focus on that ten percent.’ This underscores the diversity of community interests and the contested character of conservancy governance. The NRT and its member conservancies oversee more than 10% of Kenya’s land area and perform functions typically associated with the state, including education and security provision. The withdrawal of USAID funding may therefore trigger substantial programmatic cuts and operational downsizing, with immediate repercussions for local communities and rangeland governance, especially in newer conservancies that lack financial self-sufficiency and are not integrated into carbon credit projects.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Environment, Natural Resources, USAID, Development Policy, and Global Economy
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

632. Green investments and local tensions in northern Kenya's drylands

Author:
Caleb Braham, Ceciliah Njagi, Emma Bostrup, Eric Kioko, and Jane Mutune
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Large green investments in northern Kenya are reshaping how local communities use and manage their land. This is creating new legal and political tensions that risk undermining the country’s green transition. Northern Kenya plays a central role in the country’s green transition. Its drylands and rangelands have attracted large-scale investments in renewable energy, conservation and climate finance, including carbon credit projects. This is positioning the region as a strategic site for national and international green development. However, the rapid expansion of green projects in this historically marginalised region has generated significant legal and social concerns. Communities are increasingly challenging land acquisitions, with several disputes ending up in court. There are also reports that community land rights have been overlooked, opportunities for meaningful participation limited, and project benefits unevenly distributed. These conflicts are not simply symptoms of failed project implementation but reflect unresolved tensions over land governance, authority and participation that are now becoming embedded in Kenya’s green transition. They are rooted in a history of colonial land alienation, structural inequalities and centralised governance models that have long characterised the relationship between Nairobi and northern Kenya. Left unresolved, these issues have perpetuated a more concentrated authority over land and investment decisions in practice than Kenya’s 2010 constitutional reforms suggest. As green investments accelerate, these historical patterns resurface, making projects more politically sensitive and legally vulnerable. Projects that rely on perfunctory or non-transparent community involvement are more likely to encounter court action, stalled implementation and collective resistance. This, in turn, creates regulatory and political uncertainty that can undermine their long‑term stability. While this tension reflects broader global challenges of inclusive green development, it is amplified in northern Kenya by the sheer scale of land investments, the contested legal status of community land, uneven implementation of the Community Land Act and the longstanding political and economic marginalisation of pastoral regions by central state institutions. The region’s development trajectory points towards either an exclusionary green transition or one grounded in meaningful community involvement and partnership; the outcome will depend on how state institutions, donors and private investors choose to structure and govern green investments in response to the issues raised.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Environment, Natural Resources, Investment, Development Policy, and Global Economy
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

633. Climate change makes Arctic operations ever more complex

Author:
Lin Alexandra Mortensgaard
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
It is a truth widely acknowledged that the Arctic region is warming several times faster than the rest of the globe and, as a consequence, Arctic military operations are already being fundamentally reshaped. But this is not simply a question of the Arctic becoming more accessible. As a Canadian vice-admiral recently noted, ‘it’s harder to operate up there because of climate change. Because the ice is even less predictable than it has been in the past. (...) Everything in the North is much more complex as a result of climate change’.1 Security actors such as military forces, coastguards, intelligence agencies, diplomats and private contractors operating in the Arctic – but also in headquarters far from northern latitudes – increasingly have to acknowledge and plan for these transformations. The dramatic changes to the ice, snow and frost that still characterise the Arctic region have tangible consequences on a daily basis for all those living and operating in this complex geography. It is, however, not only the ice and frost of the Arctic that is changing, but also weather patterns, ocean currents, coastlines and the topography of landmasses. Security actors require an understanding of the changing Arctic climate – an understanding which is at once systematic and comprehensive, but also not so inflexible that it insists on providing exhaustive foresight for all possible trajectories. While climate scientists provide scenarios and theorise tipping points for the global climate, even their projections involve many unknowns. These existing uncertainties are exacerbated by disrupted data flows and knowledge exchange with scientific communities in both Russia and the United States. In light of this, it is very difficult for security actors operating in the Arctic region to project concretely the future challenges presented to their activities by climate change. We can, however, outline different types of change that are relevant at present, and use this typology to consider the implications for Arctic operations. I outline three different types of change here: changes to the size of the operational area and area of interest; changes to the physical state of the area; and changes to the topography of the area. These types overlap but have different degrees of relevance on for example land and sea. I use ‘change’ here because these transformations are not simply a matter of an ‘increasing’ temperature or a ‘decreasing’ amount of ice. To assume that climate change is linear and unidirectional is to misunderstand what it entails as a localised, current and future phenomenon.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Climate Change, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Arctic

634. Gone with the West: How the transatlantic split helps China and forces Europe to rethink its Indo-Pacific strategy

Author:
Andreas Bøje Forsby
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The erosion of transatlantic unity under a renewed America First strategy has weakened collective Western responses to China and left Europe vulnerable to coercive diplomacy from both Beijing and Washington. Caught between an unreliable America and an assertive China, Europe must strengthen its strategic autonomy by building deeper relationships with like-minded countries in the Indo-Pacific region. Like-mindedness, previously the linchpin of Western unity, no longer appears to play much of a role in building geostrategic coalitions in the Indo-Pacific region.1 Instead, as the Trump administration jettisons the liberal rules-based international order, Europe is fundamentally reconsidering its partnership with America and consequently its approach to the Indo-Pacific. Even the prevailing transatlantic consensus on China – viewed as a “systemic challenger” that should be tackled together – is now unravelling.2 Against the wider backdrop of a return to an era of great power prerogatives and spheres of influence, Europe therefore finds itself in a tight spot in the Indo-Pacific region – unwelcome to both Washington and Beijing. However, given its economic dynamism and critical manufacturing industries, the Indo-Pacific is far too important to be left to Washington and Beijing’s devices. Indeed, many Indo-Pacific countries share not only Europe’s advocacy of free trade, multilateralism, liberal institutions and a rules-based order, but also its unease about relying too much on either China or the US, which together may foster a renewed sense of like-mindedness with Europe. For its part, Europe urgently needs to extend and deepen its own set of strategic relationships with countries in the Indo-Pacific region in the face of growing Chinese and American assertiveness. The proposed new EU security strategy will hopefully address this as a geostrategic priority.3
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Transatlantic Relations, and Global Economy
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

635. Community finance and agroecology build climate resilience in East and Central Africa

Author:
Esbern Friis-Hanse, Kristine Kaaber Pors, and Donald Kasongi
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Climate change has become a defining feature of rural life across Africa. Rural households face increasingly erratic rainfall, shifting seasons, prolonged droughts and destructive floods. These are no longer exceptional shocks but recurring stresses that undermine food security, livelihoods and social Agriculture remains central to African economies, employing more than half of the labour force in sub-Saharan Africa and absorbing most new entrants in contexts marked by a large youth population. Yet agriculture is also highly climate-exposed. Smallholder farmers depend on rainfall, soil fertility and seasonal predictability, conditions that climate change is steadily eroding. Public responses have often been insufficient. Agricultural extension systems have weakened in many countries, and climate finance rarely reaches smallholders effectively. Support frequently comes in the form of standardised input packages or short-term projects that fail to address structural vulnerability. In some cases, such interventions increase risk, for example when farmers take loans for inputs poorly suited to local ecological conditions. Against this backdrop, community-based institutions offer an alternative pathway. This brief draws on a multi-country learning process examining how Village Savings and Loan Associations (VSLAs) contribute to resilience-building among smallholder households in Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi and Uganda. It argues that VSLAs should be seen not merely as informal financial tools but as resilience-building institutions with broader policy implications.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Rural, Resilience, and Agroecology
Political Geography:
Africa

636. Women's organisations are cracking the glass ceiling in war-time Ukraine

Author:
Karmen Tornius
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
It is well known that armed conflict affects women’s lives negatively through violence, destruction, displacement and militarisation. War also often reinforces traditional gender norms whereby men are considered the defenders and women primarily as the civilian victims of the conflict. Ukraine is no exception. War brought new gender concerns to the fore (e.g., female veterans or gender in recovery and reconstruction), driving new policy approaches. Millions of women have been displaced, many have suffered personal and material losses and some have experienced violence first‑hand. At the same time, research from other conflict‑affected contexts shows that the societal and political ruptures caused by war can, over the medium term, open new spaces for advancing gender equality. In Ukraine, women’s organisations have sought to seize such openings, even as they respond to the immediate harms of war. This policy brief examines how Ukrainian women’s organisations navigate these constraints and opportunities in their efforts to strengthen women’s rights.
Topic:
Civil Society, Women, Armed Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and Gender Equality
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

637. Forced displacement from Ukraine

Author:
Ninna Nyberg Sørensen
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has triggered one of the most significant population movements in recent European history. The loss of national population is not just a demographic challenge; it is a human capital problem that challenges the reconstruction and future development of Ukraine. The situation in Ukraine is characterised by a protracted war and significant uncertainty about its outcome and long-term consequences. In European countries hosting Ukrainian refugees, the legal status and the integration prospects for those under temporary protection remain unsettled. Drawing on a desk study of recent academic analyses and policy reports, as well as 18 semi-structured interviews with Ukrainian refugees and diaspora representatives in Denmark, this policy brief considers how various outcomes of the war in Ukraine might shape mobility, and what policy responses could be conducive to reconstruction.
Topic:
Refugees, Russia-Ukraine War, and Forced Displacement
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

638. The EU in a changing threat landscape at sea

Author:
Jessica Larsen
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The European Union is strengthening its strategic autonomy at a time when geopolitics, hybrid threats and actual war are accelerating insecurity at sea. The situation calls for a review of the EU’s role as a maritime security provider. With 90% of trade moving by sea, the European Union (EU) has economic and security interests in the peaceful and sustainable use of the world’s oceans. Yet the EU’s ability to protect its supply chains, and its energy and food security is compromised by changing threat patterns at sea and the decline of multilateralism with which to address them. This policy brief presents six priority areas that the EU and member states may address to strengthen the EU’s strategic autonomy and consolidate its role as a maritime security provider.
Topic:
Security, European Union, Geopolitics, Maritime, Hybrid Threats, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:
Europe

639. Rethinking Europe's approach to a defiant Sahel

Author:
Signe Marie Cold-Ravnkilde, Eva Stambøl, and Almamy Sylla
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
For Europe, disengaging from the Sahel means ceding influence in a region where geopolitical competition is intensifying and where European security is increasingly interconnected with local conflicts and threats. Continued cooperation enables Europe to support stability, protect its interests and those of Sahelian countries, and maintain credible global partnerships. But as observed by a Malian economist, ‘Western policies no longer have credibility in Africa.’ (Interview, Bamako, March 2023). Across Africa, anti-colonial and neo‑pan-African discourses have gained strength since the early 2020s, influencing domestic politics and shaping alliance shifts. Their core aims are renewed sovereignty and a more equal global order, less dominated by Eurocentrism and Western hegemony. These ideas inform political ideology not only in countries such as Senegal, Benin, the Central African Republic and Chad, but have also become central to the military regimes in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger following the coups of 2020–2023. Yet European policy debates often reductively view these ideological movements as effects of Russian propaganda or Chinese strategic expansion.1 For example, in January 2024 EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell described the Sahel’s distancing from France and ECOWAS as occurring ‘at the same time that we see the Russian influence increase’, framing these changes as driven by Russia’s expanding military and political presence.2 Such interpretations deny African agency and reproduce the paternalistic, Eurocentric assumptions that anticolonial actors explicitly contest. They also ignore that contemporary anticolonialism and Pan-Africanism are not new phenomena but draw on longstanding histories of political resistance rooted in the struggles for decolonisation. These misreadings risk skewing European policy responses to regional security and development at a moment when the Sahel’s geopolitical alignments are undergoing fundamental change.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Post Colonialism, Geopolitics, and Anti-Colonialism
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Mali, and Sahel

640. Climate, Peace and Security in the UN Security Council

Author:
Helene Maria Kyed and Justine Chambers
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Climate, peace and security (CPS) is a recurring topic of debate within the UN Security Council (UNSC) that, despite never achieving a formal thematic mandate, has advanced with the support of a majority of council members since 2011 and is now reflected in 11 missions. CPS engagement in the UNSC rests on an understanding that the impacts of climate change deepen vulnerabilities that can aggravate existing threats to international peace and security, placing the issue within the UNSC’s charter-given mandate. CPS-supportive council members also acknowledge that climate impacts challenge UN peacekeeping operations and that addressing climate change is important to both peacebuilding efforts and the conflict prevention mandate of the UNSC. The existential threat that sea-level rise poses to low-lying coastal states is another recurring topic. As an elected member of the UNSC (2025-2026), Denmark has positioned itself as a champion of CPS, aligned with one of its three thematic priorities. In 2025, Denmark co-chaired with Sierra Leone the Joint Pledges on CPS – an initiative launched in 2023 to put a spotlight on CPS in the UNSC’s thematic and geographic meetings, resolutions, mission mandates and analyses. Denmark also stressed climate-related risks in the context of Yemen during its March 2025 presidency and later played a role in retaining CPS-language in the mandate renewal of the UN mission in South Sudan. It has collaborated on events, linking CPS to the protection of civilians, peace operations and the ‘Women, Peace and Security’ agenda. These efforts unfold in a challenging political environment, marked by funding cuts to UN missions and a renewed focus on rearmament and hard-security priorities that risk underprioritizing climate change. While Russia and China have consistently opposed placing climate-related issues under the UNSC’s remit, the US’s recent withdrawal from CPS-supporting groups in the Council and its exit from the Paris Agreement have heightened the risk of eroding progress on CPS.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Geopolitics, Peace, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

641. Diaspora engagement by Ukrainians in Denmark

Author:
Nauja Kleist and Ida Marie Savio Vammen
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Regardless of how the war ends, Ukraine’s diaspora will be an important actor in the country’s future. Sustained and long-term support to diaspora engagement is therefore critical for reconstruction, development, and cultural survival. On 24 February 2022, when news of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine broke, Ukrainian communities across Denmark quickly mobilised. Established diaspora organisations, Ukrainian churches and a diverse group of migrants already residing in Denmark joined forces to help and to coordinate the immediate response to the new reality of war. ‘Everything was on fire’, said a female activist recalling the first critical months when volunteers worked around the clock. From engineers and managers to agricultural workers, Ukrainians mobilised across sectors, organising support to Ukraine, assistance to newly-arrived refugees and coordination with Danish civil society and private companies. As the war continued, these initial emergency networks evolved into more institutionalised frameworks. Based on 18 interviews conducted in 2025 with experts and Ukrainian activists in Denmark, this policy brief discusses the extensive and sustained Ukrainian diaspora engagement in response to the war, arguing that the diaspora plays a significant role and will continue to do so in the future.
Topic:
Development, Migration, Diaspora, Refugees, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Denmark

642. Russia targeting African migrants in digital recruitment campaigns

Author:
Signe Marie Cold-Ravnkilde and Karen Philippa Larsen
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
As the war in Ukraine approaches its fourth year, Russia faces a rising demand for labour across the army, defence industry and civilian sectors. Heavy battlefield losses make the recruitment of Russian nationals difficult, and the military’s continuous need for drones requires a large workforce for production. To fill these gaps, Russia is increasingly looking beyond its borders. Prominent cases of people from North Korea and China serving as frontline soldiers have drawn international attention. Since 2024, media reports have also indicated that Russian actors are luring migrants to the frontline with misleading promises of civilian work and citizenship through simplified procedures in exchange for military service.1 Recruitment is also increasingly targeting young African women—particularly Nigerian students to work in drone factories supporting Russia’s military war machine.2
Topic:
Labor Issues, Recruitment, Migrants, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, and Ukraine

643. American ambitions in Greenland pose key dilemmas for the Kingdom of Denmark in NATO

Author:
Lise Wiederholt Christensen
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The conflict between the United States and the Kingdom of Denmark concerning the ownership of Greenland has placed the Kingdom under immense pressure. This conflict will have long-lasting consequences for the NATO Alliance and for the Kingdom of Denmark.1 The Greenland–Denmark–US conflict is a strategic shock for the Kingdom of Denmark and its Arctic security policy. The Kingdom of Denmark has been confronted with a potential recalibration of its relationship with its most important Ally, the US, while simultaneously having to establish new relations with the European Allies in the Arctic region. The Kingdom is navigating exceptionally difficult strategic balances that have been accelerated by this crisis, but which will not necessarily disappear in the near future.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Europe, Denmark, Greenland, Arctic, and United States of America

644. Military minerals: Europe's new defense industrial capacities demand reliable supply chains

Author:
Luke Patey
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The geopolitical upheaval of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine coupled with the return of US President Donald Trump to the White House have kick-started massive new defence spending commitments across the European Union. Yet even where EU member states overcome longstanding policy gridlock and red tape to advance rearmament plans, new industrial defence capacities require reliable supply chains for critical minerals and defence materials to ensure future production. The reopening of a mothballed ammunition factory in Denmark offers a window into understanding the political, bureaucratic and supply chain single points of failure that could upend new industrial defence capacities in Europe.
Topic:
European Union, Defense Industry, Supply Chains, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:
China and Europe

645. The Teesta River Project: Bangladesh Faces a New Phase in Managing the Critical Balance Between New Delhi and Beijing

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
07-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
In his first foreign tour since taking office last February, Bangladeshi Prime Minister Tarique Rahman visited Malaysia on June 21 and 22, 2026, before traveling immediately to China for a four-day visit that included the Summer Davos Forum and official bilateral talks. The visit to Malaysia, the tour's first stop, carried clear economic implications. Discussions covered migrant labor issues and ways to strengthen cooperation in trade, investment, energy, and technology, reflecting Dhaka's “Look East” policy and its effort to deepen engagement with the economies of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Rahman's visit to China, however, carried far greater political and strategic significance. Three factors explain that weight: the visit came as part of his first foreign tour; it sent signals about how Dhaka intends to balance relations between China and India, particularly regarding the comprehensive management project for the Teesta River; and it stood out because Rahman had not yet made an early visit to India, Bangladesh's closest neighbor. It underscores that strengthening ties with China remains one of the constants of Bangladesh's foreign policy despite recent changes in government. The two countries signed the Comprehensive Strategic Cooperative Partnership agreement in July 2024 under Sheikh Hasina, an agreement reaffirmed during interim government chief Muhammad Yunus's visit to China in March 2025. Rahman's visit continues these constants while also reflecting his aspiration to expand cooperation and accelerate the implementation of Belt and Road Initiative provisions, such as Mongla Port and the Chinese Economic and Industrial Zone in Chittagong. It further aims to complete trade negotiations, boost investment, and deepen cooperation on water management, especially the comprehensive management and rehabilitation project for the Teesta River.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Regional Economy, and Rivers
Political Geography:
Bangladesh and South Asia

646. An Institutional Test: How Did the U.S. Congress Handle the Case of the Anti-Politicization Fund?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
08-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
The Anti-Politicization Fund, valued at about 1.8 billion dollars, sparked a political and legal crisis within the United States, after facing objections from within the Republican Party itself, alongside criticism related to the mechanism of its creation and the uses of its funds. The dispute reached its peak when Republican Senators Thom Tillis and John Cornyn threatened to obstruct the nomination of Todd Blanche for the position of Attorney General, unless he provided written guarantees to permanently abolish the fund and narrow the scope of the protection preventing the IRS from reviewing some of President Trump’s, his family’s, and his companies’ previous tax filings. Under the weight of this pressure, Blanche issued a decision rescinding the order issued in May 2026 under which the fund had been established, ending the impasse with the two senators and prompting them to announce their readiness to support his nomination. However, the abolition of the fund did not fully end the surrounding controversy: questions remained regarding the legal basis for its creation, the weakness of oversight over its funds, the ambiguity of the categories benefiting from it, the legality of the protection granted to Trump and his family, and the possibility of re-establishing the fund in the future.
Topic:
Government, Politics, Domestic Politics, and Republican Party
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

647. Washington’s Influence: The Significance of Taiwan’s Annual Han Kuang 2026 Military Exercises

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
08-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
On August 5, 2026, Taiwan launched its annual Han Kuang military exercises, a ten-day event continuing through August 14, with the aim of simulating the country’s response should China resort to force to reclaim the self-governing island, which Beijing considers a territory under its jurisdiction. The drills included combat scenarios for troops and reservists to test how they would respond to a potential attack on the island. Taiwanese military circles described the exercises as “exceptional and the first of their kind,” given their comprehensiveness and the scale of the realistic threats they simulate, in addition to coming at a time of escalating military tensions between Beijing and Taipei, as well as continued disagreements between Washington and Beijing over the Taiwan issue.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Military Affairs, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

648. Strengthening Cooperation: The Goals and Outcomes of the Iraqi Prime Minister's Visit to Turkey

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
08-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
On July 28, 2026, Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi paid his first visit to Ankara since taking office in April 2026, in response to an invitation from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The visit comes amid a full agenda that reflects Baghdad's priority on development and the economy in the period ahead. It also comes against the backdrop of both countries' pursuit of stronger strategic relations, at a time when bilateral ties face complex files, including water, energy, and security. Turkey also hopes that relations between the two countries, which rose to the level of a strategic partnership during the tenure of former Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani, will witness further development and a deepening of cooperation during al-Zaidi's tenure as head of government.
Topic:
Development, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Economy
Political Geography:
Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East

649. Diversifying Partnerships: What Are the Motives Behind the South Korean President’s Tour of Latin America?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
08-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
South Korean President Lee Jae-myung visited three Latin American countries — Brazil, Chile, and Argentina — his first such visit since assuming office in June 2025. The trip formed part of a broader 11-day foreign tour, held from July 24 to August 3, 2026, that also took him to San Francisco and Frankfurt. During his stops in Latin America, Lee held summit talks with his counterparts from the three countries, focused on expanding trade and investment, opening new markets, resuming negotiations on a free trade agreement between Korea and the “Mercosur” bloc, updating the free trade agreement with Chile, and expanding the horizons of Korean diplomacy toward the Global South.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Global South, and Trade
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, Brazil, Argentina, Latin America, and Chile

650. Crossroads: Do Growing Divisions Within Merz’s Party Threaten His Chancellorship?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
08-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is facing growing criticism within his own party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), following the sweeping cabinet reshuffle he carried out at the end of July 2026. Many party officials expressed their displeasure with the changes, a notably unusual shift for a party long known for its discipline. The episode represents one of the most complex political crises Merz has faced since coming to power in May 2025.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Political Crisis, and Friedrich Merz
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

651. Navigating Disagreement: Why Did the Brazilian President Visit the United States?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
On May 6, 2026, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva traveled to Washington at the invitation of U.S. President Donald Trump, seeking to strengthen bilateral relations. The visit coincided with mounting domestic pressures on the Brazilian president, following a series of successive setbacks—most notably a vote by more than two-thirds of Congress members in favor of legislation proposing to reduce sentences handed down against former President Bolsonaro, despite the presidential veto, and the Senate’s rejection of da Silva’s nominee for the Supreme Court—the first time in decades that a president’s choice for the Court had been turned down. Those reverses gave fresh momentum to Bolsonaro’s son as a leading presidential contender in the 2026 elections, even as da Silva’s capacity to advance his domestic agenda showed signs of strain. Complicating the picture further were a number of unresolved Brazilian-American tensions, set against a turbulent international and regional backdrop marked by escalating U.S.–Chinese competition in Latin America, a dynamic that rendered the visit a practical test of Brazil’s ability to balance its rapprochement with Washington against its commitments to Beijing within the BRICS framework. Against that backdrop, the analysis that follows traces the most significant points of friction in Brazilian-American relations in recent times, examines the motives behind the visit and its anticipated outcomes, and assesses the potential repercussions for the wider region.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, Donald Trump, and Lula da Silva
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, and United States of America

652. Technical Alliance: The Turkestan Summit and the Digital Integration Drive Within the Organization of Turkic States

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
The informal summit of the Organization of Turkic States convened in Turkestan, Kazakhstan, on May 15, 2026, reaffirming the Organization’s standing as the foundational pillar of Turkic influence in Central Asia. Far from a ceremonial gathering, the summit appeared to be a concerted attempt to forge a new vision for the future of the Turkic world, one that moves beyond traditional cultural frameworks toward more substantive economic and technological partnerships. Founded on October 3, 2009, under the name the Cooperation Council of Turkic-Speaking States (the Turkic Council), the Organization came into being following the signing of the Nakhchivan Agreement between Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan. At the Baku Summit in 2019, Uzbekistan announced its accession, bringing the total membership to five states, alongside Turkmenistan, Hungary, and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus as observers. At the Istanbul Summit in 2021, the body was formally renamed the “Organization of Turkic States.”
Topic:
Diplomacy, Geopolitics, Economy, Regional Organizations, and Organization of Turkic States
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Turkic States

653. A Rightward Turn: Domestic and Foreign Policy Implications of De la Espriella’s Rise in Colombia

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
07-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Colombia’s presidential runoff, held on June 21, 2026, resulted in a victory for right-wing candidate Abelardo De la Espriella, who won 49.66% of the vote against 48.70% for left-wing Senator Iván Cepeda, the candidate of the ruling “Historic Pact” coalition. The result came amid an unprecedented degree of political and security polarization and marks a shift to the right after four years of rule under Gustavo Petro, Colombia’s first left-wing president. Barred by the constitution from seeking re-election, Petro had thrown his support behind Cepeda as his successor. De la Espriella had also led the first round of the elections, taking 43.7% of the vote against Cepeda’s 40.9%, a result that set the stage for a direct contest between two political projects with sharply divergent visions on security and the economy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, Domestic Policy, Right-Wing Politics, and Abelardo de la Espriella
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

654. Escalating Threats: Africa in the Global Terrorism Index 2026

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
The Institute for Economics and Peace has released the thirteenth edition of the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) for 2026 — the annual report widely regarded as the most comprehensive reference for monitoring and analyzing global terrorism patterns. The Index draws on Dragonfly’s Terrorism Tracker database, which meticulously documents terrorist incidents across approximately 163 countries, offering a detailed picture of the scale and trajectory of the phenomenon worldwide. A defining feature of this edition is its focus on Sub-Saharan Africa, where Sahel countries topped the list of nations most affected by terrorism during 2025. Against that backdrop, the report examines the scale of attacks and casualties while analyzing the most active organizations and the political and social conditions that have fueled the escalation of armed violence across the continent.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Violence, and Transnational Threats
Political Geography:
Africa and Sahel

655. Escalating Pressure: Where Is Washington’s Cuba Strategy Heading?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
May 2026 did not pass without the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump adding a new layer to its policy of maximum pressure on Cuba. American measures unfolded as a graduated campaign aimed at simultaneously choking the island’s political, economic, and security structures. Cuba is gaining increasing importance in American strategic calculations due to its sensitive geographic location and close relations with both Russia and China. Washington now treats the island as a security and geopolitical challenge extending well beyond its borders. Recent developments accordingly raise questions about the motives behind American escalation, its strategic dimensions, and the possible scenarios for the future of the crisis between Washington and Havana.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, and Economy
Political Geography:
Cuba and United States of America

656. Conflict and Its Reverberations: The Iran War and Its Implications for the Balance of Power in Asia and the Indo-Pacific

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Now entering its fourth consecutive week, the American-Israeli operation against Iran continues to generate mounting regional and international repercussions — not least of which are growing concerns over its implications for Asia and the broader Indo-Pacific (the Indian and Pacific Oceans). A number of observers have raised the prospect that a prolonged Middle East campaign could prompt a “temporary” American strategic redeployment away from the Indo-Pacific and toward the region of active conflict.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Economy, Armed Conflict, and 2026 Iran War
Political Geography:
Asia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

657. Arena of Rivals: China, Taiwan, and the Contest for Africa

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
The China-Taiwan file has undergone a notable transformation at the African level. Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te concluded his visit to Eswatini on May 5, 2026 — a trip that had originally been scheduled for April 22 to 26 before being postponed, after Seychelles, Mauritius, and Madagascar revoked overflight permits for the Taiwanese presidential aircraft. Beijing, meanwhile, received the President of Mozambique from April 18 to 22, who met Chinese President Xi Jinping at the latter’s invitation, as well as Namibia’s Minister of International Relations and Trade from April 11 to 18.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Geopolitics, and Trade
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Taiwan, Asia, and Eswatini

658. Balancing Act: Why China Chose “Pragmatic Neutrality” in the War on Iran

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Since the outbreak of the American-Israeli war on Iran on February 28, 2026, China has maintained what can best be described as a flexible, carefully calibrated stance. Foreign Ministry statements issued on February 28, March 2, and March 11 condemned the American-Israeli strikes, called for a halt to the escalation, and emphasized that the war serves no party’s interests. Complementing its public statements, Beijing reinforced its diplomatic engagement by dispatching its special envoy for Middle Eastern affairs, Zhai Jun, to the region.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Neutrality, and 2026 Iran War
Political Geography:
China, Iran, and Asia

659. Strategic Hedging in Motion: Japan’s Trajectory to Counter Growing Chinese Influence

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Japan has recently intensified diplomatic and security efforts to reinforce regional alliances and mitigate the potential repercussions of Beijing’s rising power amid China’s significant expansion of influence across Southeast and East Asia. Expanded security coordination and military cooperation with the United States, South Korea, and the Philippines now characterize these initiatives, raising important questions about their impact on the regional balance in East Asia.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Hedging, Foreign Influence, and Military Cooperation
Political Geography:
Japan, China, and Asia

660. A Turbulent Scene: Myanmar’s Political Landscape After the Legislative Elections

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
The Union Solidarity and Development Party, backed by Myanmar’s military, emerged as the dominant force in the legislative elections held across the country. Conducted in three phases from late December 2025 to January 2026, these elections marked the first polls in Naypyidaw since the military seized power in 2021. Western nations widely criticized the process, viewing it as an attempt to cement military control over Myanmar’s political arena.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, Political Parties, and Legislature
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Myanmar

661. From Reform to Credibility: Rethinking How Policy Shapes Investment in Africa

Author:
Chukwuka Onyekwena and Adedeji Adeniran
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
Abstract:
This paper examines how policy reforms influence investment, emphasising the role of policy credibility. Using panel data for African economies, the results confirm that improvements in the policy environment are associated with higher investment. However, these effects are gradual and shaped by persistence in investment behaviour, reflecting the forward-looking nature of capital decisions. The key finding is that the effectiveness of reforms depends on their credibility. Sustained reforms over time generate stronger investment responses, while those subject to reversal or volatility have weaker effects. Policy stability does not independently drive investment; rather, it shapes how reforms are interpreted by investors. These findings suggest that attracting investment requires more than implementing reforms. It requires sustaining them in a consistent and predictable manner. Policy credibility, therefore, emerges as a critical determinant of investment outcomes
Topic:
Reform, Economy, Investment, and Credibility
Political Geography:
Africa

662. Emerging Challenges and Opportu-Nities in Humanitarian Assistance in Mozambique: A Case Study from Cabo Delgados

Author:
Fátima Chimarizeni Papelo
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
This paper aims to analyze the emerging challenges and opportuni-ties derived from the humanitarian assistance actions applied in Cabo Del-gado in the context of violent extremism that has been ravaging the province since 2017. This topic is relevant because the traditional concept of huma-nitarian assistance presupposes support for victims of a disaster caused by nature or man-made, and the province of Cabo Delgado presents a growing demand for humanitarian assistance due to the ongoing prolonged violent conflict. In Cabo Delgado, there are victims of a violent, unconventional, low-intensity conflict. More than 1 million people are in need of humanita-rian assistance, of which more than 50% are women and children (OCHA 2021). Along with terrorism, climate disasters, such as Cyclone Keneth in 2019, and the COVID-19 Pandemic, which began affecting Mozambique in 2020, are exacerbating the state of vulnerability of humanitarian victims. Combined, these events force non-state humanitarian actors to operate in an environment characterized by uncertainty, insecurity, and unpredictability. Nevertheless, these humanitarian actors may operate beyond what is defined by traditional humanitarian principles, which concern saving lives and allevia-ting the suffering of humanitarian victims, including developmental actions that may result in the reduction of state power in the humanitarian space and that lead to the implementation of political action by external forces. If prolonged, this scenario may accentuate the weakening of state power. Given this context, one wonders what challenges and opportunities are derived from the humanitarian support process in Cabo Delgado. This paper seeks to reflect on the emerging challenges and oppor-tunities arising from the humanitarian assistance process in Cabo Delgado. Specifically, it sought to a) define what humanitarian assistance is; b) analyze the emerging challenges for humanitarian actors in Cabo Delgado; and c) analyze the emerging opportunities for humanitarian actors within the pro-cess of humanitarian assistance in the region. We started from the hypothesis that the problem of the humanitarian assistance process in the context of violent extremism creates emerging challenges and opportunities for non--state humanitarian actors that are linked to human security, management, and coordination of humanitarian actions.
Topic:
Security, Violent Extremism, Armed Conflict, and Humanitarian Assistance
Political Geography:
Africa, Mozambique, and Cabo Delgados

663. Situation Analysis of the Chissano Government: Domestic Transitions and Economic Pragmatism in Mozam-Bique (1986–2004)

Author:
Ercilio Neves Brandao Langa
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
This article analyzes the political situation of Mozambique during Chissano’s Government between 1986 and 2005, as well as the internal and external factors that contributed to the fulfillment or unfulfillment of the government’s objectives. Political, economic, and historical events are observed in order to evaluate the Chissano Government. Situation analysis is a plural methodology that allows interpreting events, facts, and causes, as well as describing the behavior of the actors involved, the correlations of force, and the internal and external interests that influence the course of politics. Another aspect that justifies using this tool is the historical time involved – 18 years between the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century – characterized by transformations, transitions, and dis-tinct domestic, regional, and international political-economic changes. The situation analysis proved to be an effective tool to reach a broader and deeper perspective of the Chissano Government and the national and international context in which it developed. This methodology requires historical knowle-dge of the object of study, its context and political dynamics, the organization of local society, its behavior patterns and social values, as well as its politi-cal groups, their objectives, and interests. The text constitutes a subjective perspective, a point of view on the “Chissano era”, a political, economic, and social period in the history of Mozambique. It is an ex-post-facto analysis, as it is written decades after the events have occurred, and although it limits its scope to a short period of time, it nonetheless covers long and complex socio-economic transformations. Despite systemic changes in Mozambican society, the structure of the country’s politics has remained almost the same, led by the party-state.
Topic:
History, Economy, Domestic Politics, and Pragmatism
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

664. The Evolution of Un Peace Operations from a Human Security Perspective: The Dilemma in the Issue of Western Sahara

Author:
Guilherme Moreira Dias, José Maria Sydow de Barros, and Túlio Pires Barboza
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
The question of Western Sahara, “Africa’s last colony”, is quite pecu-liar in the context of United Nations (UN) peacekeeping operations, when compared to other ongoing missions, and it is also quite unique from a geo-political point of view since the international community differs regarding this territory (Barros 2020).In this context, this article seeks to address the following issue: why didn’t the evolution of UN peace operations, which occurred after the expan-sion of the international security agenda and the emergence of the concept of human security, provide any significant change in the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO)? We will consider the hypothesis that, although there is a consensus at the international level on the importance of the concept of human security, there has been no significant change in MINURSO’s mandate, such as the incorporation of new assign-ments, due to Morocco’s close relationship with some permanent members of the UN Security Council (UNSC), namely France and the United States.
Topic:
United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Human Security
Political Geography:
Africa and Western Sahara

665. Contemporary Terrorism: A Theoretical Perspective

Author:
Yoslán Silverio González
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
Studying the impact of terrorism on international relations is of vital importance due to the implications not only local and regional but also within the international system. The phenomenon of terrorism is not exclusive to a region or a country, it can affect everyone in indirect ways. In this sense, it crosses borders and does not understand nationalities. The most dangerous thing is the treatment given to it in international forums, multilateral orga-nizations, and the media since it is presented as a threat to security, but to legitimize military actions by Western powers or to delegitimize governments “not prone to the West”.This article is based on a conceptual proposal that helps to understand the phenomenon of terrorism from a non-Western perspective, criticizing the positions of the United States in this regard. The main objective is to deepen the debate around the concept of terrorism, its erroneous link to Islam, and to nationalist and/or revolutionary movements. It is also pertinent to see how it has been legally defined by international law, through resolutions, conventions, and protocols of different multilateral organizations, including the African Union (AU).
Topic:
International Relations, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Global South, and African Union
Political Geography:
Africa and Global Focus

666. Asia’s Growing Global Influence: A Study of India’s Africa Policy

Author:
Hamdy A. Hassan
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
The 21st century could become an Asian and African century, which will result in a radical global transformation of the world. Thus, the past decade has witnessed a large Asian presence in Africa, especially, China, India, Japan, and South Korea. Not surprisingly that the rise of Asia in global politics has worried the traditional Western powers. Analyzing contemporary Asian approaches to Africa should be performed through their historical contexts, in particular the history of competition and rivalry between Asian rising powers. It is no secret that this point has not been adequately addres-sed in previous studies on African-Asian relations (Iwata 2019). This state of rivalry is reflected in the African policies of major Asian countries. For example, the Sino-Indian conflict and the Sino-Japanese conflict, in addition to the Taiwan issue, have definitely affected these countries’ interactions with Africa. In contrast to European policies towards Africa after the founding of the European Union, there is no consensus framework for Asian international relations. The experience of struggle against colonialism and engagement in the Non-Aligned Movement represented the most prominent components of the mutual relations between Asia and Africa, especially since the Ban-dung Conference in 1955 (Adem 2017). When the Cold War ended, Asian countries began to achieve high and rapid rates of economic development. Hence, the Asian countries that previously received development aid have become among the most important international donors. This means that the concept of “donor powers” has undergone a major change that it is not limited to Western industrialized countries (including Japan). Perhaps all of this requires studying and analyzing Asian-African relations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Global South, Donors, and Foreign Influence
Political Geography:
Africa and India

667. Monitoring Report | Public consultation in Albania: The illusion of inclusion

Author:
Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM)
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM)
Abstract:
The Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM) has released a new report: Public Consultation in Albania: The Illusion of Inclusion. This report presents the results of an in-depth monitoring of 50 laws, public policies, and strategic documents consulted by the central government during the years 2022-2023. The assessment covers 10 key government institutions, evaluating their public consultation processes in terms of: Transparency and accessibility of consultation documents; Effectiveness of the public consultation process; Public accountability during this process; Citizen participation in consultations; Ensuring inclusivity and non-discrimination. In addition to the qualitative analysis of public consultation previously conducted by IDM, this assessment for the first time provides statistical data related to this important governance process. The evaluation system applied in this report provides the opportunity to compare institutions’ performance in the consultation of different acts, in relation to the aforementioned principles. Ultimately, the findings highlight a ‘’long distance’’ between transparency and participation in government consultations. The goal of this study is to contribute to evidence-based advocacy for legal reforms and the improvement of institutional practices, so that public consultations fulfill their core function – citizens’ participation and impact in decision-making.
Topic:
Transparency, Inclusion, Monitoring, and Civic Space
Political Geography:
Europe, Balkans, and Albania

668. Military Implications of PLA Aircraft Incursions in Taiwan’s Airspace 2024

Author:
Cheng-kun Ma and K. Tristan Tang
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
In 2024, the number of days and sorties involving Chinese military aircraft crossing the Taiwan Strait median line reached a peak, but the total sorties of Chinese aircraft around Taiwan and the number of peak incursion periods were not significantly higher than in 2023. While the number of Chinese military aircraft incursions into Taiwan’s airspace has surged, the operational capacity of the PLA Eastern Theater Command Air Force is likely already at its maximum peacetime readiness level. The sharp increase in Chinese military aircraft incursions targeting Taiwan is not solely aimed at President Ching-te Lai but also reflects changes in the scope and intensity of the PLA’s training and exercises around Taiwan. Unless new airbases are constructed or logistical support capabilities are significantly improved within the PLA Eastern Theater Command, the number of sorties into Taiwan’s airspace is unlikely to increase substantially in 2025.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Air Force, Military, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Asia

669. Dreams Deferred in Xi’s New Year’s Speech

Author:
Arran Hope
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Xi Jinping’s New Year’s speech hinted at weaknesses in the People’s Republic of China. The speech emphasized the many hardships that people are currently facing at home while acknowledging fears about a turbulent external environment. Xi did not mention “national rejuvenation” and he conceded that the “China dream” was far from being realized. Doubling down on the ideology of struggle, a hard work ethic, and enforcing nationalist sentiment as crucial factors for escaping the current malaise, Xi’s speech suggested a shortage of tangible solutions for the country’s problems.
Topic:
Politics, Ideology, Xi Jinping, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:
China and Asia

670. Untangling the Transatlantic Knot: Germany, France, and the United States

Author:
Gesine Weber and Jacob Ross
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
France’s and Germany’s reactions to Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine reveal their significantly different relationships with the United States. Their interpretations regarding the European security architecture are almost diametrically opposed. While Berlin concluded that European security must be constructed transatlantically, Paris saw confirmation of its interpretation that Europeans must be able to address security challenges independently of Washington. Donald Trump’s reelection constitutes a challenge for the two countries because both need to fundamentally rethink their respective relationships with the United States and Europe-US relations more generally. The scope of the US withdrawal from European security remains to be seen, but it will be similarly challenging for Paris and Berlin.
Topic:
NATO, Geopolitics, Transatlantic Relations, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe, France, Germany, North America, and United States of America

671. China: From Systemic Rival to Systemic Threat

Author:
Andrew Small and Bonnie S. Glaser
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
For the United States and Europe, dealing with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is now a challenge of such wide-ranging nature that it will cut across almost the entire transatlantic agenda of the incoming Trump administration. From addressing Beijing’s role as the “decisive enabler” for Russia’s war of aggression to rethinking the way that US-EU trade and technology ties need to be organized, China policy no longer occupies a separate silo but conditions every element of the security and economic landscape. Under the Biden administration, Europe and the United States undertook an unprecedented effort not only to coordinate their approaches to the PRC itself, but also to advance on other fronts where the China challenge was the main motivating factor, such as EU-US efforts to negotiate agreements on steel, aluminum, and critical minerals. The two sides’ analysis has grown much closer, and in some areas, this translated into tangible results—whether conveying common red lines to Beijing on the delivery of lethal aid to Moscow and the use of force against Taiwan or tightening controls on advanced semiconductor equipment exports. Overall, however, progress still fell short of the high stakes. Some EU member states treated the Biden administration’s partner-friendly approach as a holiday from difficult strategic choices on China rather than an optimal window in which to make them. EU-level efforts to build more effective approaches on economic security, trade defense, and cyber security were often slow-rolled or undercut by major capitals. There were also areas in which the Biden administration allowed domestic political considerations to undermine efforts to build a common strategic economic approach among US partners—particularly the use of national security tools against US allies, whether the blocking of Nippon’s takeover of US Steel or the initial retention (and suspension rather than lifting) of Section 232 tariffs against the EU. While the two sides are certainly more closely aligned and better coordinated, moving in the right direction is no longer enough. If Europe and the United States are unable to achieve results in several critical areas in the next few years, it will come at a growing cost to their security and economic interests, as well as to the broader transatlantic relationship. Success, on the other hand, would put a new set of foundations under it. Three issues are likely to loom over the agenda for the incoming Trump administration: the threat of the “Second China Shock” to US and European industry; Beijing’s deepening coordination with Russia and other authoritarian states; and intensifying PRC pressure on Taiwan.
Topic:
European Union, Geopolitics, Trade, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

672. Reflections on WTO Reform: Lecture series by Ignacio Garcia Bercero

Author:
Ignacio Garcia Bercero
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
This special edition of our Expert Analysis presents four lectures (edited for publication) on World Trade Organization reform delivered by the author at LSE IDEAS during June-November 2022 and concluding in May 2023. The paper ends on a postscript reflecting on the perspectives on the different issues discussed in the lectures following the outcome of the 13th Ministerial Conference of the WTO in February-March 2024, as well as the November 2024 re-election of Donald Trump—on the basis of a disruptive trade policy agenda.
Topic:
Reform, Trade Policy, Donald Trump, and WTO
Political Geography:
Global Focus

673. Lift the Sanctions: The Principal Danger in Syria Today is Instability

Author:
Carl Conetta
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:
The most critical international security goal regarding Syria today is the country’s stabilization – and that requires immediate and substantial aid and sanction relief. The question on which recognition of the new government should most hinge is whether it can achieve sovereign authority in the country and do so without the type of human rights abuses or cross-border militancy that pose a threat to regional peace. Given the urgency of stabilizing the country, the new government provisionally meets this criteria. Should it change course and pose a threat to regional peace, the international community can adjust policy accordingly. Two outstanding challenges to sovereignty and legitimacy are the presence of foreign troops – Israeli, Turkish, and US – and the status of Kurdish areas. Especially acute is the triangular relationship among Damascus, Ankara, and Syria’s Kurdish community, which is among the issues addressed in this viewpoint. As for foreign troops: 15,000-20,000 currently occupy the country. Affirming Syrian sovereignty entails expeditiously withdrawing all those forces not explicitly invited by the new government. A related concern is the remnants of the Islamic State (ISIL) in Syria, including the 40,000+ cadre, family members, and displaced persons interned in camps run by the Kurdish authorities. Going forward, the task of managing and combating IS remnants on Syrian territory should fall to Damascus, acting together with Kurdish and foreign partners as it sees fit. The threat that IS affiliates and aspirants pose to the United States and the broader international community have been and are most effectively addressed through measure of homeland security and law enforcement. Securing the US homeland does not require the ongoing deployment of US troops in Syria, which would inadvertently undermine the legitimacy of the new government.
Topic:
International Security, Sanctions, Syrian War, and Instability
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

674. Shipment of a Controlled Vacuum Furnace to North Korea via Multiple States: An HS Code Case Study

Author:
David Albright
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
In tracking trade data and trade flows, Harmonized System (HS) codes are routinely used to aid searches for dual-use commodities and to help guide the identification of dual-use items that require a license or greater scrutiny. A recurring concern is shipper falsification of HS codes to evade detection or payment of duties. An illustration of such falsifications is a case we learned about via government sources from around 2022 that involved North Korea and a dual-use vacuum furnace suitable for uranium melting that wound its way from Spain to North Korea, via Mexico, South Africa, and China. Such a furnace is typically controlled under the Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG) Part 2 list and is banned for export to North Korea under United Security Council resolutions. This type of furnace is a mainstay of a nuclear weapons program, particularly one that uses weapon-grade uranium as the nuclear explosive material, as North Korea is known to do. With North Korea expanding its uranium enrichment program and producing greater quantities of weapon-grade uranium, this new furnace would be especially important.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Trade, and Dual Use Items
Political Geography:
Asia and North Korea

675. New Information on Shenyang Machine Tool Company’s Illicit Sales to North Korea and Russia

Author:
David Albright and Spencer Faragasso
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
Several years ago, the Institute reported about the relatively large, multinational Chinese company Shenyang Machine Tools Company supplying sophisticated computer numerically controlled (CNC) machine tools, equipped with Western controlled software, to North Korea in violation of UN Security Council (UNSC) sanctions and a supplier country’s trade control laws that banned re-export of this software. New information details the disingenuous way in which the Chinese government investigated this case, indicating nonetheless inadvertently that North Korea received these machine tools, while also demonstrating China’s utter disregard for enforcing UNSC sanctions or its own or others’ export control laws. This case serves as another of the many cases highlighting China as a long-time irresponsible trading partner that responsible companies should avoid when sensitive dual-use goods are involved, lest they be complicit in outfitting North Korea’s, Iran’s, or Russia’s military programs. Today, responsible suppliers are inadvertently facilitating Russia’s prosecution of an illegal war against Ukraine. Given Shenyang Machine Tools Company’s recent exports of goods to Russia with Harmonized Shipments (HS) codes found on the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) Common High Priority List (CHPL), this company should be considered for sanctions.
Topic:
Sanctions, Trade, Illegal Trade, and Shenyang Machine Tool Company
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Asia, and North Korea

676. Assad’s Fall Is an Opportunity for a U.S. Win Over China

Author:
Grant Rumley
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Beijing consistently supported the regime’s brutal repressive measures, so cozying up to the rebel-led transition government may be more difficult than it expects. In the months since the Israel-Hamas war began in October 2023, China has seized on the conflict to criticize not only Israel but by extension the U.S. and its position in the region. For years, Chinese diplomats had been careful to toe a centrist line in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, calibrating their language to avoid offending either side too greatly. Yet as the conflict has dragged on the past year, and as the region’s criticisms of the U.S. have risen, Beijing sensed an opportunity to diminish the U.S. standing while boosting its own. Chinese officials have regularly omitted mention of Hamas’s atrocities while blasting Israel and the U.S. for its support. Now, however, the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria has presented the U.S. with a similar opportunity...
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Strategic Competition, Bashar al-Assad, 2023 Gaza War, and Transitional Government
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

677. In Syria, America Should Be Ruthlessly Focused on the Islamic State

Author:
Joseph Votel and Elizabeth Dent
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
With the U.S. military presence on a potentially short timetable, officials should prioritize policies that ensure the continued security of Islamic State detention facilities, such as brokering local ceasefire agreements and alleviating Turkish concerns. Five years ago, we warned that a snap decision to depart Syria would be a devastating setback and damage American credibility. A few weeks later, amongst a U.S. withdrawal and subsequent Turkish invasion into areas held by the Syrian Democratic Forces, we argued the United States would need to maintain the ability to fight remnants of the Islamic State and ensure the fighters in detention remain there. Washington ceded much of its negotiating power in the country to Moscow and Ankara, only to reverse course a few months later and keep a small allotment of troops in northeast Syria to prevent a power vacuum and a run on Syrian oil and gas infrastructure. Today, the United States and its Kurdish-led partners face a nearly identical set of challenges, but in a massively changed balance of power in Syria. And despite political nominees’ reassurances that the United States is unlikely to abandon its partners there, Trump himself has been more ambivalent...
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Islamic State, and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

678. PMF Non-Deployment to Save Assad: Sudani’s View Contradicted by Iran

Author:
Hamdi Malik
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The Iraqi prime minister portrayed Baghdad's non-intervention in Syria as a sovereign decision, but Iranian leaders gave a different explanation. Iranian and Iraqi narratives surrounding recent events in Syria reveal clear contradictions, particularly regarding the role of Iraqi muqawama (resistance) militias in efforts to preserve Bashar al-Assad’s regime. High-ranking Iranian officials offered accounts that challenged Iraqi prime minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s portrayal of events, asserting that external threats rather than Sudani’s leadership ultimately limited the extent of Iraq’s involvement.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Syrian War, Bashar al-Assad, and Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF)
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

679. Gaza Ceasefire: Implications for Israel, Hamas, and U.S. Policy

Author:
Dennis Ross, Matthew Levitt, and Neomi Neumann
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Former Israeli and U.S. officials discuss the deal’s timing, provisions, and near-term prospects, outlining the Trump administration’s practical options for advancing peace in Gaza and beyond.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Ceasefire, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

680. Navigating the Challenges of Environmentalism in an Increasingly Authoritarian Iraq

Author:
Taif Alkhudary
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
There has been a marked increase in environmental activism in Iraq in recent years. This shift has taken place in the context of what has often been presented as a new stability, due to the absence of active armed conflict in the country since 2017. However, as “stabilization” efforts give way to “development”, Iraq is also coming to terms with the slow violence of protracted wars,1 an astronomical and rapid rise in oil production, and the impacts of climate change – most visible in the widespread incidences of pollution and public health crises, as well as in the drying up of ancient rivers and lakes and desertification, which is destroying livelihoods and causing mass migration across the country.2 The rise in interest in the environment has also come in the aftermath of the 2019 Tishreen uprising, to which the government and associated militias have responded with a widespread crackdown on freedom of expression and assembly, making any form of activism increasingly dangerous. This study examines how self-identified environmentalists active in Iraq interact with this complex context and the challenges they face. To navigate the increased authoritarianism of the Iraqi state, this research finds that environmentalists tend to adopt small, carefully framed initiatives that are usually presented as supporting the government in solving some of the environmental issues it faces, as opposed to being overtly adversarial. This approach also means that Iraq’s environmental movements lack autonomy, and that certain issues – particularly those that might harm the business interests or standing of the political elite – remain off-limits. As a result, environmental initiatives in Iraq tend to make shallow interventions that do little to address the root causes of environmental degradation or to mitigate the effects of climate change. These dynamics are compounded by the funding structures of donor organizations, who prefer to award grants to small-scale, time-bound projects the outcomes of which can be easily measured. Environmental actors active in Iraq have also begun to form coalitions with the government, the private sector, and other members of civil society, such as political activists. However, this remains in its infancy and is often limited to a small number of individuals acting alone. Coalition building remains a substantial challenge and is often actively blocked by the government, used by corporations for greenwashing, and sees the efforts of environmental activists and organizations coopted by politicians for their own political and financial ends. The findings of the current study corroborate and extend the work of Wiktor-Mach et al. on Kurdistan, especially their characterization of environmental activism in the region as “a specific type of activism that does not question mainstream policies and practices but intends to push for change within existing systems and that has a cooperative character”.3 However, it is also important to note (as will be discussed in greater detail in this paper) that in Federal Iraq, the uptake of such non-confrontational tactics is the result of the increased crackdown on civil society post-Tishreen, which has raised the stakes and dangers of more adversarial work. In addition, while in Kurdistan episodes of mass contention are relatively rare and often focus on issues such as salaries and service provision, in Federal Iraq there has been at least one episode of mass mobilization in response to environmental issues in recent years in the form of the 2018 water protests in Basra.
Topic:
Environment, Politics, Authoritarianism, and Activism
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

681. Online Narratives and Manipulations: Tunisian and Regional Panorama

Author:
Arab Reform Initiative
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
In the wake of the presidential elections of October 2024, the first since the coup d'état in July 2021, Tunisia has seen a resurgence of suspiciously sponsored political content, both pro- and anti-regime, on online social media networks. These included advertisements denouncing the refusal of the president of the electoral body, Farouk Bouasker, to reinstate certain candidates. We also saw “locked” profiles with Egyptian-sounding names reacting with likes or "laugh" emojis to publications on the Facebook page of the Presidency of the Republic of Tunisia. With the proliferation of anti-Saied pages garnering thousands of likes in the space of a few days, pro-regime influencers have multiplied their videos to denounce the spread of these pages and content, calling their audiences to witness the truth of the plot hatched by dark forces, which is the mainstay of the new regime's narrative. It is hard to overlook the importance of Facebook in Tunisia. It remains the most widely used network1 and continues to be a major platform for political life.2 While it has long been the site of disinformation campaigns3 in Tunisia, in recent years the issue has taken on a whole new dimension: the sector has gone from being a local, cottage industry to a veritable industry run by specialized companies operating on an international scale. This industrialization of disinformation goes hand in hand with a phenomenon of opinion manipulation, taking the form of troll profiles dictating the political agenda, or fake profiles creating a false sense of popularity for certain ideas. Both disinformation and manipulation raise questions about the future of democracy, in Tunisia and globally, in a context where for many, these networks continue to represent a faithful reflection of reality. This paper seeks to provide an overview of the dynamics of disinformation from the Tunisian digital space, exploring the different narratives conveyed, forms of manipulation, and the role of social media platforms in their amplification. The paper also shows that certain disinformation narratives circulate between different countries in the region. The aim is to broaden reflection on these forms of manipulation while proposing a regional research and action agenda that can help reduce the impact of these activities, known in the Arab world by the general name of "electronic flies".4
Topic:
Elections, Media, Misinformation, and Narrative
Political Geography:
North Africa and Tunisia

682. Strengthening Peace and Security in West Africa: A Conversation with Anthony Antem

Author:
Denis Foretia
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
As regional and global challenges related to peace and security continue to evolve, collaboration and knowledge-sharing remain critical to fostering sustainable solutions. The ReCAP Final Regional Conference, taking place in Dakar, Senegal, from February 10-11 2025, brings together experts, practitioners, and researchers from across West Africa and the Lake Chad Basin to reflect on lessons learned in conflict prevention, peacebuilding, and the fight against violent extremism. In this insightful conversation, Anthony Antem (AA), Head of the Conflict Prevention Unit at the Nkafu Policy Institute, discusses the peace and security landscape in West Africa and the Lake Chad Basin. He highlights Nkafu’s contributions to the ReCAP project, shares expectations for the conference, and reflects on the importance of regional collaboration in fostering sustainable peace. The discussion is led by Ayukmba Nkonghonyor (AN), Senior Communications Manager at the Denis and Lenora Foretia Foundation.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Peace, Interview, Countering Violent Extremism, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Africa and West Africa

683. Virtual Briefing Series | Trump and the Middle East: A new beginning or business as usual?

Author:
Kenneth Pollack and Brian Katulis
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
President-elect Donald Trump’s second term coincides with radical changes in the Middle East. Trump has promised lasting peace in the region, but what does his vision for peace look like? This on-the-record briefing featured Dr. Kenneth Pollack, Vice President for Policy at the Middle East Institute (MEI), in his first event since joining MEI. Dr. Pollack twice served on the National Security Council and began his career as a military analyst at the CIA. The briefing also featured Brian Katulis, Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy at MEI. Katulis’ career has also included time at the National Security Council as well as the US Departments of State and Defense. Our experts discussed the new administration’s policy toward the Middle East and its main players, the Trump team’s role in securing a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas and the potential for the agreement to endure, what to expect from Trump 2.0 vis-à-vis Iran, as well as the prospects for Trump to expand the Abraham Accords.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Donald Trump, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East

684. Virtual Briefing Series | Gaza’s Future: Its Neighbors and Trump Weigh In

Author:
Eyal Hulata and Mirette Mabrouk
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
President Donald Trump has apparently been pushing Egypt and Jordan to absorb the displaced Gazan population amid Arab opposition to his proposal. Trump also vowed to discuss the issue with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during his upcoming visit to Washington, DC. How realistic is this idea? And what’s at stake for both Palestinians and the security architecture of the broader region? This on-the-record briefing will feature Eyal Hulata, former head of Israel’s National Security Council (NSC). Hulata is also Senior International Fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies. The briefing will also feature Mirette Mabrouk, Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute. Our experts will discuss Trump’s leverage regarding aid, the Palestinian reaction, Amman’s and Cairo’s political considerations, potential regional security implications, and how the fate of Gazan refugees may affect the longer-term resilience of Israel’s peace treaties with Jordan and Egypt.
Topic:
Displacement, Ethnic Cleansing, Donald Trump, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, Egypt, and Jordan

685. Barbara A. Leaf on US Leadership and Engagement in the Middle East

Author:
Brian Katulis and Barbara A. Leaf
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Middle East Focus Presents: ’Taking the Edge Off the Middle East’ with Brian Katulis. A series of casual conversations with leading policy professionals on the most important happenings in the Middle East today - hosted by MEI’s Senior Fellow Brian Katulis. Barbara A. Leaf is a seasoned diplomat and expert on the Middle East, having served as the US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs and held key positions in US embassies across the region. In this episode, Barbara joins Brian to discuss the array of “black swan” events currently unfolding in the Middle East, and how the second Trump administration may respond to these challenges. They discuss the broader implications of these developments for US foreign policy, national security, and regional stability.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Leadership, Engagement, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Middle East, North America, and United States of America

686. Costly Incrementalism: U.S. PKK Policy and Relations with Türkiye

Author:
Richard Outzen
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
U.S. policy towards the PKK, a designated Foreign Terror Organization, has varied significantly over four decades, reflecting a clear periodization based on pragmatic policy interests and the interplay of U.S. actions and Turkish responses. Washington has over time supported Turkish counter-PKK actions without direct involvement; actively supported Turkish counter-PKK efforts; tolerated or tacitly supported PKK activities; and directly instrumentalized and supported the PKK in Syria and regionally. Washington’s evolving stance toward the PKK coincided with the rise of Al Qaeda (AQ) and its offshoot, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) as the focus of U.S. Middle East policy. The evolution reflected an incremental approach that subordinated U.S.-Turkish relations and other regional problems to the campaign against AQ/IS. Bilateral cooperation suffered as incrementalism, low trust, and transactionalism came to characterize the relationship. This paper examines the history, current dynamics, and possible future trajectory of U.S. PKK policy as a problem in U.S. Turkish bilateral relations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, National Security, Terrorism, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

687. The Alliance in the Storm: Geopolitical Representation of the United States in the Turkish Parliament during Détente

Author:
Ayşe Ömür Atmaca
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
This article analyzes how the geopolitical representation of the United States in Turkish political discourse changed during the 1960s and 1970s in the context of deep crises between the two countries, such as the Cyprus question, the opium issue, and the US arms embargo on Türkiye. Within the framework of critical geopolitical theory, it uses the concept of “geopolitical representation.” It examines the changes in the geopolitical representation of the United States in Turkish political life through practical geopolitics. To this end, it evaluates the debates, speeches, and correspondence made by the representatives of the ruling and opposition parties and members of the government in the Turkish Grand National Assembly between 1964 and 1979, within the context of the crises in Turkish-American relations, particularly within the foreign policy framework. It is argued that while the alliance between Türkiye and the United States and Türkiye’s membership in NATO were seen as important symbols of Türkiye’s sovereignty and enjoyed unwavering support in the 1950s, tensions with the US, Türkiye’s “strategic partner,” in the 1960s and 1970s led to notable shifts in the Turkish parliament’s narrative. As a pioneer of anti-NATO and anti-US rhetoric, the Workers’ Party of Türkiye (TİP) played a prominent role in shaping parliamentary discussions.
Topic:
History, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, Arms Embargo, and Detente
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, North America, Cyprus, and United States of America

688. Challenging Friends: Türkiye-U.S. Relations

Author:
Lenore G. Martin
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
This article analyzes the underlying wellsprings for the major strains that disrupt the U.S. - Türkiye relationship. These strains arise from the U.S. support of the PYD/YPG/YPJ in Northern Syria as boots on the ground against ISIL; Türkiye’s purchase of the Russian S400 missile defense system; Türkiye’s energy imports from Russia and Iran; the U.S. refusal to extradite Fetullah Gülen; and Washington’s complaints about the AKP government’s anti-democratic tendencies. This article analyzes why and how some of these issues have evoked strong ire and distrust on both sides and others much less so by employing a paradigm based on five integrated variables: Türkiye’s military and economic capabilities; the availability of its natural resources, particularly energy; as well as threats to the legitimacy of the AKP regime and to the society’s ethnic and religious cohesion. Utilizing the paradigm, the article proposes measures that will increase the opportunities to build a firmer partnership between the U.S. and Türkiye.
Topic:
International Relations, NATO, National Security, Terrorism, Bilateral Relations, YPG, and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

689. A Multi-Dimensional Evaluation of Turkish Public Opinion towards the United States

Author:
Efe Tokdemir, Melike Metintaş, and Seçkin Köstem
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
Türkiye - United States relations have a multifaceted character and have spanned a long period, witnessing ups and downs throughout their historical trajectory. Türkiye’s relations with and foreign policy towards the US have been closely monitored by the public, and diverse perspectives towards the US have emerged within Turkish public opinion over time. This paper investigates the various factors that affect Turkish public opinion towards the US. Previous studies have generally examined public opinion through the demand side, exploring what features of the public predict their behavior towards other countries. In this research, we examine what exactly it is about the US that the public likes or dislikes. The research question of this article is: What are the determinants of the variation in individuals’ foreign policy attitudes towards the US in Türkiye? By answering this question through survey data conducted in 2021, we aim to present the economic, security-related, and political reasons behind the Turkish public’s positive and negative attitudes toward the US. The findings demonstrate that individuals are influenced by various dimensions pertaining to the US and its relations with Türkiye. The respondents’ demographic characteristics and political and foreign policy attitudes have resulted in disparate opinions regarding these multiple dimensions.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Public Opinion, and Attitudes
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

690. Where is the Anchor? Explaining the Endurance of the American-Turkish Partnership, 1927-2024

Author:
Onur Erpul and Kemal Kirisçi
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
Once considered a model partnership, the American-Turkish relationship now elicits ambivalence among scholars and policymakers, calling into question the fundamental interests and assumptions that once undergirded the relationship. Critics attribute the negative trends in the relationship to geostrategic and value-based incompatibilities, but relatively few have examined both factors longitudinally across the entire relationship. This paper does not aim to provide a grand theory of American-Turkish relations. Instead, its goal is to develop a framework illustrating the vital role that strategic, ideational, and domestic political factors have played in shaping macro-level outcomes in the partnership’s cohesion at various junctures. Overall, our paper identifies the positive role of foreign policy bureaucratic elites on both sides acting as an “invisible hand” providing an anchor for the relationship even in the absence of other commonalities. Yet, we also observe the weakening of this hand in recent times as both countries become domestically transformed.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Alliance, and Elites
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

691. The Deinstitutionalization of U.S. and Turkish Foreign Policy: Why Societal Ties Are an Anchor in Bilateral Relations

Author:
Andrew O'Donohue
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
This paper challenges two prevailing narratives about U.S.-Turkey relations: first, that international and individual-level factors are responsible for volatility in the relationship and second, that bilateral relations are uniformly bleak. In contrast to these perspectives, this paper proposes a domestic and institutional explanation for the rising volatility of U.S.-Turkey relations and conceptualizes societal ties as an anchor in the bilateral relationship. This paper advances two inter-related arguments. First, I argue that a key driver of volatility in U.S.-Turkey relations since 2016 is the deinstitutionalization of U.S. and Turkish foreign policymaking. In the United States, the root cause of deinstitutionalization is intensifying polarization over foreign policy, fueled by the rise of populism. In Turkey, by contrast, foreign policy has deinstitutionalized through personalization: the steady concentration of decision-making power in the hands of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Second, against this backdrop of deinstitutionalization, I show that societal ties between the United States and Turkey provide a uniquely stable and enduring area of bilateral cooperation. I provide evidence for this argument in two key domains: 1) civil society and media and 2) higher education. These societal linkages, I argue, are often resilient precisely because they are disconnected from domestic politics and foreign policy. These societal ties should thus be understood not as agents that can reshape bilateral relations but as anchors that prevent the two nations from drifting apart.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Civil Society, Bilateral Relations, Media, Higher Education, Bureaucracy, and Polarization
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, North Africa, and United States of America

692. Turkey and the US in the Middle East: A Case for Alliance Change

Author:
Meliha Benli Altunisik
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
Turkey-US relations in the Middle East have evolved significantly in recent years. Initially based on shared threat perceptions and strategic outlooks during the Cold War, the alignment became characterized by divergences on some issues after the Gulf War in 1991. Their relationship in the Middle East has even become hostile in recent years. Turkey’s increased regional aspirations and evolving threat perceptions in the Middle East, framed within an ontological security narrative, have strained bilateral ties. This shift is compounded by divergent worldviews influenced by domestic political changes in both countries. Despite these challenges, the alliance persists within NATO, albeit with complexities arising from the interplay of external pressures and internal dynamics. This article explores these dynamics using a Neoclassical Realist framework to explain how Ankara’s evolving threat perceptions and ontological security concerns have reshaped Turkey-US relations in the Middle East amid changing global and regional contexts.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Alliance, Neoclassical Realism, and Threat Perception
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

693. What Does It Mean for Agencies to Be Effective in a Changing Development Landscape?

Author:
Rachael Calleja, Sara Casadevall Bellés, and Beata Cichocka
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
For official bilateral development agencies, the realities of providing effective development cooperation are increasingly complex, as competing demands and changing international and domestic contexts are raising fundamental questions around what it means to be an effective agency. This paper explores the concept of agency effectiveness to demonstrate why agencies – and their leadership – should consider how their structures and processes interact with the changing landscape as part of their efforts to remain relevant and resilient. To do so, we consider how the current challenges facing agencies – including the need to respond to climate change, global instability, and changing domestic political environments – affect why agencies act, what they do, and how they do it. We then explore dominant understandings of agency effectiveness, which provide a lens for thinking about what it may mean for agencies to be effective in the years ahead. Overall, we suggest that the challenges facing development agencies in the changing landscape raise key issues for agencies to consider, particularly around what they prioritise, how they are structured, and the capabilities or ways of working needed to respond to complex demands. While there is unlikely to be a single approach for agencies looking to adapt to changing contexts, considering the implications of new – and future – pressures for the work of development agencies will be a necessary first step towards supporting their resilience and relevance in the years ahead.
Topic:
Development, Humanitarian Aid, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
Global Focus

694. The Future of Official Development Assistance: Incremental Improvements or Radical Reform?

Author:
Masood Ahmed, Rachael Calleja, and Pierre Jacquet
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
Over the last decade, donor country governments have faced new and additional demands for financing international challenges, including providing global public goods (GPGs) and addressing historically high numbers of refugees and humanitarian crises. They have partly done so by re-allocating their official development assistance (ODA) away from its original aim: to support poverty reduction and growth in developing countries. This has led to questions about the integrity and credibility of ODA. These questions are only likely to grow more pertinent in the coming decade because the pressures on ODA—and on public finances more broadly—are here to stay. ODA budgets are being cut in a number of traditional donor countries and what remains is increasingly being deployed to meet emerging needs beyond traditional development and to reflect a more national security perspective on development cooperation. The time is right, therefore, to ask whether the concept and accounting for ODA need to be modified to ensure that the needy and vulnerable it was designed to serve continue to be protected in the face of fiscal constraints and changing geopolitical circumstances. This report, a compendium on the future of ODA, aims to provide fresh thinking and inspire the action needed for ODA to remain relevant and effective. It brings together reflections and proposals from leading experts and practitioners, including the under-secretary-general and executive director of UNOPS to a former DAC chair, to inform policymakers. In this executive summary, we will introduce the key arguments from the compendium contributors. The contributions are organised into four key areas of discussion that reflect the main themes raised in this compendium: the rationale for ODA reform, the political and institutional realities shaping reform, using ODA for climate and leveraging private finance, and forward-looking proposals for reimagining ODA’s role and purpose.
Topic:
Development, Finance, Humanitarian Crisis, Donors, and Foreign Assistance
Political Geography:
Global Focus

695. Aligning International Banking Regulation with the SDGs

Author:
Liliana Rojas-Suarez
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
Basel III—the international standard for banking regulation—has strengthened global financial stability but has also led to unintended consequences that may hinder progress toward key Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This paper examines how Basel III’s regulatory framework may restrict bank lending to SMEs (impacting SDG 10) and constrain infrastructure finance (impacting SDG 8). Addressing these challenges requires refining risk assessment methodologies while preserving Basel III’s core objective: accurate risk evaluation. For SMEs, tailoring risk weights using local credit registry data can better reflect economic conditions in emerging markets. For infrastructure, recognizing it as a distinct asset class and leveraging credit risk mitigation tools could improve financing. Greater engagement from multilateral institutions, particularly the World Bank, is essential to advancing these solutions while maintaining financial stability.
Topic:
Regulation, Financial Stability, Banking, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:
Global Focus

696. Planned Relocation of Climate-Vulnerable Communities: Preparing Multilateral Development Banks

Author:
Steven Goldfinch and Samuel Huckstep
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
Planned relocation of highly climate-vulnerable communities is becoming increasingly necessary as climate shocks become more frequent and intense. It is also becoming more feasible as modelling of future scenarios improves and adaptation limits become clearer. Despite this, many governments are underprepared for planning and implementing planned relocation projects. In the absence of an intergovernmentally agreed framework or set of principles on planned relocation, development finance, and specifically climate finance, is not well positioned to respond to this emerging demand from countries. This is heightened by a widespread absence of coherent domestic policies, and by institutional gaps in international assistance. Multilateral development banks, in particular, could be well-placed to fill this gap. They have extensive experience in undertaking relocation projects, including in contexts of climate adaptation. Multilateral development banks will increasingly field borrower country demand for both technical and financial assistance. They are, however, not yet prepared to meet this demand, nor are countries adequately equipped to make applications for support. This paper outlines emerging public policy regarding planned relocation, draws from existing standards on development-forced displacement and resettlement, and explores entry points for development financiers in providing technical assistance and finance. The paper proposes recommendations to multilateral development banks and the global climate funds on engaging in this emerging area.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Refugees, Displacement, Resettlement, and Banking
Political Geography:
Global Focus

697. Ukraine and Beyond: Shaping Europe’s Security Future

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
What happens with the war in Ukraine matters beyond its borders, as events there will shape the larger standoff between Russia and the West. The U.S. and European powers can manage the risks of a changing security order with a mix of diplomacy and deterrence.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Deterrence, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

698. Finding a Way Out of Festering Conflict in India’s Manipur

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Manipur, a state in north-eastern India, has been beset with intercommunal strife since May 2023. The central government has now taken a bold step to quell the violence. It should keep acting urgently to avert a protracted crisis.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Violence, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Manipur

699. Locked in Transition: Politics and Violence in Haiti

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Criminal gangs have tightened their grip on much of Port-au-Prince, with the multinational security mission making little headway and transitional authorities mired in internal disputes. The UN Security Council should quickly decide how to respond to Haiti’s request for further assistance in restoring public safety.
Topic:
Security, UN Security Council, Organized Crime, Gangs, and Public Safety
Political Geography:
Caribbean and Haiti

700. Current Dynamics in Syria and the Way Forward

Author:
Khogir Wirya
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:
Recent events in Syria represent a turning point in the history of the Middle East, where internal dynamics are intertwined with regional and international ones. Syria is not just a theater for local conflicts, but has become an arena for competition between major powers, which directly affects the nature of possible solutions. Within this complex landscape, the Kurdish issue stands out as one of the most sensitive and urgent priorities, with its reciprocal impact on the other components of the Syrian conflict and the country’s future.
Topic:
Political stability, Syrian War, and Kurds
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria