Publication Year: within 1 Year and within 25 Years

3101. Ten Years after HIPPO: Assessing Progress and Charting the Future of UN Peace Operations

Author:: Jenna Russo, Bitania Tadesse, and Ilianna Kotini
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:: Ten years after the High-Level Independent Panel on Peace Operations (HIPPO) released its landmark report “Uniting Our Strengths for Peace,” UN peace operations face new challenges that test the UN’s capacity to adapt to an evolving global landscape. As the UN examines the future of peace operations, it is timely to review the recommendations of the HIPPO report, many of which remain pertinent to today’s policy discussions. This report reassesses the findings of the HIPPO report in light of today’s peace operations contexts, analyzes where there has and has not been progress, and considers how the HIPPO report can be useful to current discussions. Overall, today’s peace operations operate in a more challenging environment than in 2015, facing a more divided Security Council, severe financial constraints, and questions about the UN’s legitimacy. Nonetheless, the report concludes that many of HIPPO’s core insights remain relevant, and the findings and recommendations of the HIPPO report can help inform current policy discussions on the future of peace operations: UN80 Initiative: The secretary-general should articulate a clear vision guided by the New Agenda for Peace and Pact for the Future, ensuring cuts do not compromise the UN’s readiness to deploy peace operations or institutional memory. Review on the Future of Peace Operations: The Secretariat should use this review to identify what forms of peace operations the UN is best positioned to support and the capacities needed to backstop these efforts effectively. Modular Approaches: The Secretariat should develop frameworks for implementing modular mission designs while ensuring critical areas of work like the protection of civilians, gender, and human rights remain prioritized in streamlined mandates. Peacebuilding and Prevention: All member states should develop national prevention strategies as called for in the Pact for the Future, and the UN should consider pooling early-warning resources with regional organizations. Political Primacy: The secretary-general should clarify what the primacy of politics means in contexts without viable peace processes, encompassing politics beyond the signing of a formal agreement at the national level. Advancing Partnerships: The UN should embrace more ambitious partnerships that leverage its normative independence while drawing on regional organizations’ proximity to crises, focusing on prevention and mediation alongside peace enforcement.
Topic:: United Nations, Peacekeeping, Partnerships, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3102. Compensation Preferences in Agricultural Insurance Among Smallholders in Rural Kenya

Author:: Francesco Cecchi and Samyuktha Kannan
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
Abstract:: Despite the high incidence of adverse weather shocks, the demand for agricultural insurance remains stubbornly low, even among risk-averse smallholder farmers with poor access to social safety nets. Two major barriers to adoption concern (i) cyclical illiquidity in agriculture households and (ii) the lack of trust in insurance providers. Standard insurance contracts that provide compensation for losses as a lump sum over an uncertain time horizon post-harvest exacerbate these concerns. In this study, we leverage recent advancements in digitally-enabled loss estimation and payments infrastructure to modify contracts in a manner than can address these barriers. We test whether allowing farmers greater choice in structuring compensation transfers from agricultural insurance reveals preferences for earlier and/or smaller transfers and secondly, whether farmers value an insurance product with customized compensation preferences more than a standard contract. We pilot this innovation through a randomized control design over one agricultural season among 1600 farmers in Kenya. We compare farmers payment preferences, and estimate differences in willingness-to-pay (WTP) and uptake for a contract offering customized compensation compared to the standard contract. We test for differences in preferences across gender, access to liquidity and other characteristics captured through a single in-person survey round. We measure time preferences at multiple points through the season using an innovative USSD-code based platform to describe the effect of seasonal liquidity and preferences on the timing and size of transfers.
Topic:: Agriculture, Risk, Liquidity, Smallholders, and Crop Insurance
Political Geography:: Kenya and Africa

3103. Evolution of Village Social Order in Rural Bangladesh: A 50-Year Analysis

Author:: Mirza Hassan, Syeda Salina Aziz, Asif Shahan, Aishwarya Sanjukta Roy Proma, Jahid Nur, Sumaiya Tasnim, and Raihan Ahamed
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
Abstract:: Villages as a research focus received high priority during the 1970s. This focus waned over time, particularly in the post-2008 period, a time when the country also began to face a serious political setback and came under dominant party rule for the next 15 years. The altered political context had a profound impact on policy, governance, and sociopolitical processes at both national and local levels. In this context, the BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD) took the initiative in 2023 to study the major changes in the villages of Bangladesh, particularly over the past 25–30 years. The broad Changing Village study encompasses seven thematic areas: culture, migration, climate change and environment, built environment, financial inclusion, agriculture, and social and political order. The detailed context of the Changing Village study, its methodology, sampling, and the description of the sample villages can be found in the paper, গ্রাম পরিবর্তনঃ প্রেক্ষাপট ও গবেষণা কৌশল (Changing Village: Context and Methodology). This working paper is based on research conducted under the social and political order theme.
Topic:: Agriculture, Climate Change, Environment, Migration, Culture, Social Order, Inclusion, and Villages
Political Geography:: Bangladesh and South Asia

3104. Empowering Female Domestic Workers Through Digital Finance

Author:: Bansi Malde, Maliha Rahanaz, and Zaki Wahhaj
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
Abstract:: We examine the impact of an intervention that combines digital finance and general financial literacy training targeted at women employed in the domestic work sector in Bangladesh. Study participants were randomly assigned to receive offers of two-day training at a hub operated by a digital gig work platform. We find substantial effects on savings behaviour and labour market outcomes 12 months after the intervention. We find no effects on awareness of, or trust in, mobile money transactions, intra-household transfers or spousal pressure to share resources. Our findings suggest that the intervention encouraged the use of mobile money accounts among domestic workers to retain personal control of earnings which, in turn, led to an increase in paid work that involved wages being paid directly into these accounts.
Topic:: Labor Market, Gig Economy, Digital Finance, and Financial Literacy
Political Geography:: Bangladesh and South Asia

3105. Keeping Sudan in Focus: Policy Options for the Protection of Civilians

Author:: Bitania Tadesse
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:: Sudan’s war has left millions in need of protection, as civilians continue to endure mass displacement, famine, widespread violence, and grave human rights violations. Despite commitments to international humanitarian law and the protection of civilians, both the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces have persistently targeted civilians, and international efforts to protect them have so far been insufficient. While ceasefire negotiations remain stalled, the protection of civilians cannot wait, and the international community must act now. This report examines the policy options available to member states, the UN, and regional actors to support the protection of civilians in Sudan. It highlights feasible measures that can be taken even as ceasefire negotiations remain elusive, including the following: Navigating a Divided Security Council: Security Council members, particularly the three African members, could pursue a new resolution on Sudan with backing from the African Union (AU); utilize informal mechanisms like Arria-formula meetings and subsidiary bodies of the council to build consensus; and organize a field visit to Sudan to engage stakeholders and elevate international attention. Leveraging the Role of the General Assembly: The General Assembly could continue to hold the Security Council accountable by convening debates following any future vetoes, support UN and AU fact-finding missions, and exercise normative power by adopting a resolution on civilian protection in Sudan. Foresight and Planning by the UN Secretariat: The UN Secretariat could undertake proactive scenario-based planning for the deployment of a future protection force or ceasefire monitoring mechanism, including by developing a comprehensive political strategy and implementation framework. Joint Efforts with Regional Actors: The AU should ensure it has a cohesive approach to the protection of civilians in Sudan by enhancing communication among African capitals and between Addis Ababa and New York. The UN and AU should also ensure their efforts are complementary, including by collaborating on their fact-finding missions and improving engagement between their genocide prevention offices. Contact Group to Steer the Protection Agenda in Sudan: A coalition of committed member states could establish a contact group on Sudan to develop a coherent political strategy, engage the warring parties and their backers with sustained diplomatic pressure, and create a dedicated mediation track for civilian protection.
Topic:: United Nations, Civilians, UN Security Council, and Protection
Political Geography:: Sudan and Middle East

3106. Training on Sexual Exploitation and Abuse for Uniformed Peacekeepers: Effectiveness and Limitations

Author:: Phoebe Donnelly, Sabrina Karim, DeAnne Roark, and Muhibbur Rahman
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:: Sexual exploitation and abuse (SEA) by UN peacekeepers continues to undermine the organization’s legitimacy and effectiveness. While training on SEA is required for all UN personnel deploying to UN peace operations, there is little data available on how effective these trainings are. This paper presents the first quantitative analysis of SEA training’s effectiveness, using original survey data from more than 4,000 uniformed personnel in ten countries. The analysis reveals that SEA training has a significant positive impact on attitudes and knowledge about SEA. Personnel who completed pre-deployment SEA training were substantially more likely to recognize that SEA would violate their national policy, to consider SEA to be serious, and to express willingness to report SEA. The analysis also found that UN deployment increases the likelihood that personnel will receive various gender-related trainings beyond SEA. However, despite pre-deployment SEA training being mandatory, a significant proportion of deployed peacekeepers reported never receiving this training. Although the quantitative analysis shows positive links between SEA training and views on SEA and reporting, the paper also explores limitations in current approaches to SEA training. Interviews and workshops with training experts underscored the need for SEA trainings to contextualize and apply the material rather than focus on prescriptive instruction. SEA training also needs to focus on behavioral and cultural change rather than mere policy compliance. The paper concludes that while current SEA training shows measurable positive effects on attitudes and knowledge, improvements in delivery methods and enforcement of training requirements are necessary to maximize this training’s effectiveness and create lasting institutional change.
Topic:: United Nations, Peacekeeping, Sexual Exploitation, Women, Peace, and and Security (WPS)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3107. The Operational Imperative of Integrating Gender into Peacekeeping-Intelligence

Author:: Sarah-Myriam Martin-Brûlé
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:: Peacekeeping-intelligence (PKI) plays a central role in enhancing the safety and security of UN personnel and in supporting mandate implementation, particularly the protection of civilians. Yet despite growing recognition that gender dynamics shape conflict behavior, threat patterns, and community engagement, gender perspectives remain unevenly integrated across PKI institutions, analytical processes, and training systems. This limits missions’ situational awareness, weakens their early-warning capacity, and constrains their operational effectiveness. This issue brief examines how gender can be more systematically integrated into PKI across three interrelated dimensions: the representation of women within PKI institutions, the integration of gender perspectives across the PKI cycle, and the design and delivery of PKI training. Drawing on UN policies and more than 100 interviews with personnel across five peacekeeping missions, the brief highlights persistent structural, analytical, and institutional gaps that undermine gender-responsive intelligence. The brief argues that integrating gender into PKI is not merely a normative obligation but a core operational requirement. Advancing this agenda requires sustained investment in workforce diversity, analytical methodologies, data systems, training design, and institutional collaboration to strengthen predictive capacity, enhance civilian protection, and improve mission performance.
Topic:: Intelligence, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Gender
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3108. The Financing for Development Agenda after Sevilla: Aligning Commitments and Actions

Author:: David Mulet
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:: With just five years left to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, the global financing gap has widened to $4.3 trillion per year. The Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development (FfD), held in Sevilla in July 2025, sought to renew multilateral consensus around mobilizing resources for sustainable development. This issue brief by David Mulet analyzes the Compromiso de Sevilla—the conference’s negotiated outcome—and the Sevilla Platform for Action (SPA), a voluntary registry of 130 coalitions and initiatives. It highlights how new mechanisms on sovereign debt, blended finance, and climate-linked instruments are translating commitments into action. At the same time, the brief underscores persistent gaps in systemic reform, including of the international debt architecture, international tax cooperation, the large-scale reallocation of special drawing rights, governance of the multilateral development banks, and climate finance. It argues that closing the global financing gap requires bridging intergovernmental commitments with voluntary innovation to ensure that experimentation accumulates into structural change.
Topic:: Climate Change, Reform, Finance, Sovereign Debt, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3109. Reciprocal Defense Procurement: The Missing Element in U.S.-ROK Relations

Author:: Hwa Yu and Brian Hobbs
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: Reciprocal Defense Procurement (RDP) agreements—managed by the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD)—exempt “qualifying countries” from Buy American restrictions in return for reciprocal market access and closer strategic alignment. Since the inaugural 1956 agreement with Canada, the DoD has concluded 28 RDP agreements mostly with NATO allies to foster rationalization, standardization, interchangeability, and interoperability among military forces. They also waive specialty-metal restrictions, improving access to critical minerals. Qualifying countries typically possess advanced robust defense industries, field U.S. weapon systems, and face regional threats from Russia or China. Post-Cold War additions such as Austria, Finland and Australia showcased geographic and political expansion; Japan and the Baltic states followed amid rising Russian and Chinese pressure. Ongoing negotiations with Brazil and India illustrate evolving aims: integrating key BRICS economies, shoring up rare earth supply chains, and aligning non-aligned states against rival powers— while discussions with South Korea reflect efforts to deepen industrial cooperation with existing allies. Domestic stakeholder pressures, defense offsets, and “America First” trade policies complicate RDP negotiations, yet countries with robust industry, shared security interests, and demand for U.S. weapons remain strong candidates for future agreements, strengthening a resilient, globally integrated defense industry network.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Tariffs, BRICS, Procurement, Department of Defense (DoD), and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

3110. Ascension of North Korea as a Nuclear State: A Consequence of Childhood Neglect?

Author:: Nykolus Alvut and Kelvin Mote
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: North Korea recently announced the rejection of reunification with South Korea, discarding over 70 years of stability in Northeast Asia. Kim Jongun's new approach to the North–South conflict caught many by surprise, including South Korea. Initial reactions were nearly unanimous: North Korea’s decision injects significant uncertainty and risk into an already unstable region, increases instability, and renews fears of a North Koreainitiated war. However, what if North Korea’s decision injected stability and consistency into Northeast Asian geopolitics instead? Using an analytic framework grounded in political psychology, this article explains North Korea’s ascension to nuclear state status as a direct result of chronic neglect by the international community. The authors adapted the concept of Reactive Attachment Disorder (RAD) to diagnose North Korean decision-making and introduce a new concept—Strategic-Reactive Attachment Disorder (S-RAD)—based on the DSM-5-TR diagnostic criteria for RAD. The article argues that a new approach, formally recognizing North Korea as an independent nuclear state, would deescalate the likelihood of war and ensure regional peace and stability in Northeast Asia. The authors also identify policy and strategic actions, aligned with treatment criteria for RAD, which can be taken by the international community to treat the underlying S-RAD attachment ruptures.
Topic:: Politics, Nonproliferation, Psychology, Denuclearization, Korean War, Reunification, and Reactive Attachment Disorder
Political Geography:: Asia, North Korea, and Korea

3111. “Unitary Social Democracy” and Lyuh Woon-hyung’s Relationship with the American Military Government in Korea, 1945-1947

Author:: Kyu-hyun Jo
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: This article will argue that “Unitary Social Democracy” had its roots in egalitarianism as emphasized by Tonghak and Christian Humanism and aimed to promote social democracy through a mixture of democratic electoral politics and a Socialistic welfare system; it was due to such a radical amalgamation of Left-wing and Right-wing ideas which earned Lyuh the American military government’s ire and led Lyuh to an ultimate failure in finding a satisfactory agreement with American officials who refused and could not understand Lyuh’s objectives. However, despite American reluctance to understand his philosophy, Lyuh never gave up on his quest to realize an equitable system of land and property distribution guided by democracy and socialism, and he never relinquished his firm belief that the only solution to eradicating the Manicheanism of the Cold War was through seeking the American military government’s cooperation. This article will also argue that Lyuh showed a highly consistent and dedicated commitment to realizing his ideals such that he never changed or forfeited his philosophy even after north Korea was established in September 1945, keeping his creed intact until his announcement of the Seven Principles for Left-Right Unification in October 1946 and untimely assassination in July 1947.
Topic:: Government, Politics, History, Welfare, and Social Democracy
Political Geography:: Asia, Korea, and United States of America

3112. The UN ECOSOC NGO Committee and Civil Society Participation in the UN Process

Author:: Greg Scarlatoiu
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: This article argues that while UN action on North Korean human rights has centered on the Human Rights Council, General Assembly, and Security Council, the role of the UN Committee on NGOs—gatekeeper to Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) consultative status—remains undeservedly overlooked. Dominated by anti-human rights undemocratic regimes, the Committee often blocks human rights defenders from participating in the UN system. Despite this, a few organizations—the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK), the People for Successful Corean Reunification (PSCORE), the Database Center for North Korean Human Rights (NKDB), and Christian Solidarity Worldwide—have managed to secure consultative status thanks to determined advocacy by like-minded states such as the U.S., Canada, the U.K., and South Korea. These cases, however, remain exceptions. The article contends that a more strategic, long-term effort is needed to diversify Committee membership by encouraging democratic states like South Korea and Japan to seek seats, replacing members with poor human rights records. This endeavor will take more than just international cooperation among the like-minded. Overcoming internal bureaucratic resistance and prioritizing resources for NGO Committee membership would expand access for credible NGOs, strengthen international civil society, and ultimately increase pressure on the North Korean regime to address its human rights abuses.
Topic:: Civil Society, Human Rights, United Nations, Reform, and NGOs
Political Geography:: Asia and North Korea

3113. The Case for An Atrocity Determination for North Korea

Author:: Olivia Enos
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: This article argues that the United States and South Korea should seize the opportunity presented by the United Nations’ forthcoming update to its 2014 Commission of Inquiry (COI) report to re-center international attention on the dire human rights situation in North Korea. While the COI previously established that crimes against humanity were being perpetrated by the Kim regime, this article contends that atrocity crimes— including genocide—may also be ongoing, particularly against Christians and other vulnerable groups. Drawing on defector testimony, legal frameworks, and recent precedent from U.S. atrocity determinations (e.g., on Uyghurs, Rohingya, and Yazidis), the article urges Washington and Seoul to issue their own atrocity determinations to galvanize diplomatic action, promote accountability, and provide relief to survivors. It outlines how human rights violations are intertwined with the regime’s stability and weapons development, and argues that an integrated strategy linking security and human rights is essential. The article concludes with policy recommendations, including targeted sanctions, refugee protections, enhanced information access, and closure of political prison camps, offering a roadmap for a more principled and effective North Korea policy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Genocide, Human Rights, Religion, Atrocities, Crimes Against Humanity, Christians, and Persecution
Political Geography:: Asia and North Korea

3114. China’s Violation of Sanctions Vis-à-Vis North Korea

Author:: Gordon G. Chang
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: China, at sea and at land crossings, is facilitating commerce with North Korea that clearly violates U.N. Security Council sanctions. Beijing is also interfering in sanctions-enforcement activity in its peripheral seas. Hong Kong, due to Beijing’s policies, has become a major hub of illicit activities. China had done its best to disrupt the work of the U.N.’s Panel of Experts. American sanctions policy has been ineffective, in large part because Washington policymakers do not understand China’s top-down communist system. China, despite what many think, is not deeply concerned about the growing Russia-North Korea relationship. Beijing may have even masterminded the North’s recent sales of weapons to Russia for use in Ukraine and its sending of soldiers to the war there.
Topic:: Sanctions, Law of the Sea, Maritime, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and North Korea

3115. Rebuilding a Common Future: Ideas and Perspectives for a New Mediterranean

Author:: Valeria Talbot and Caterina Roggero
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: Since 7 October 2023, the wider Mediterranean region has undergone profound transformations. Just when a new season of enhanced regional cooperation and stabilisation was seemingly dawning, long-standing balances have fractured. The region has become increasingly unstable, from Israel’s war on Gaza to Lebanon, from Iran to Yemen, and along the vital waters of the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. In this context, economic drivers for multilateral cooperation have proven insufficient to prevent and treat ongoing conflicts. In such worrying times, a shared vision for a peaceful and prosperous Mediterranean region is more indispensable than ever. This report seeks to look beyond the immediacy of crises, adopting instead a forward-looking perspective: to take stock of the current fragmentation while imagining the contours of a possible New Mediterranean. It brings together the insights of leading experts who, through a variety of lenses, analyse the dynamics shaping the region and suggest approaches to address its most urgent challenges. At the heart of this report lies the concept of reconstruction. Yet, reconstruction is here understood in its fullest sense: not merely the physical rebuilding of what has been shattered by war, but the restoration of the fundamental principles of communal life. Peace, security, prosperity, and resilient societies: these are the indispensable pillars upon which a renewed regional order must be anchored. The ambition of this report is thus twofold: to diagnose with clarity the challenges of the present and to outline possible trajectories for the years ahead. In doing so, it offers a comprehensive framework to interpret the shifting landscape of the wider Mediterranean and to envisage the conditions under which a more stable, interconnected, and forward-looking regional order might gradually emerge.
Topic:: Security, Regional Cooperation, Reconstruction, Peace, Resilience, and Fragmentation
Political Geography:: Middle East and Mediterranean

3116. No green growth without innovation

Author:: Philippe Aghion, David Hémous, and Reinhilde Veugelers
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The ‘green growth’ debate is taking place in an oversimplified setting, largely disregarding the innovation factor. Technologies to mitigate climate change are being treated as given, or as emerging spontaneously, ignoring the fact that the portfolio of technologies available tomorrow depends on what is done today. This can easily lead to misguided preferences, either for subsidising the use of relatively inefficient technologies or for postponing action in the hope that new technologies that will reduce the cost of fighting climate change will become available. But the radical new emissions-free ‘backstop technologies’ that are needed are not yet available, or are still far from the market. To foster their emergence the ‘green innovation machine’ must be turned on. For governments to tackle climate change while maintaining reasonable growth, even in the short term, we find that: Both public intervention and private initiative are indispensable: governments must initially redirect market forces towards cleaner energy before market forces can take over; Climate change policy should combine a carbon price with high initial clean-innovation R&D subsidies: the carbon price would need to be much higher if used alone; Policymakers must act now: delaying clean innovation policies results in much higher costs; Developed countries must act as technological leaders in implementing new environmental policies and should smooth access to new clean technologies for less-developed countries.
Topic:: Climate Change, Science and Technology, Economic Growth, and Innovation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3117. Sudden stops in the euro area

Author:: Silvia Merler and Jean Pisani-Ferry
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The single currency was expected to make the balance of payments irrelevant between the euro-area member states. This benign view has been challenged by recent developments, especially as imbalances between euro-area central banks have widened within the TARGET2 settlement system. Current-account developments can be misleading as indicators of financial account developments in countries that receive significant official support. Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain experienced significant private-capital inflows from 2002 to 2007-09, followed by unambiguously massive outflows. We show that such reversals qualify as ‘sudden stops’. Euro-area sudden-stop episodes were clustered in three periods: the global financial crisis, a period following the agreement of the Greek programme and summer 2011. The timeline suggests contagion effects were present. We find evidence of substitution of the private capital flows with public components. In particular, weak banks in distressed countries took up a major share of central bank refinancing. The steady divergence of intra-Eurosystem net balances mirrors this. In the short term, TARGET2 imbalances could be addressed by tightening collateral requirements for central bank liquidity. For the longer term, the evidence that the euro area has been subject to internal balance-of-payment crises should be taken as a strong signal of weakness and as an invitation to reform its structures.
Topic:: European Union, Finance, Currency, Capital, and Banking
Political Geography:: Europe

3118. Defending Europe: Transatlantic and European Security from Truman to Trump

Author:: Antonio Missiroli
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: After the four tense decades of the Cold War and a subsequent period of relative peace and stability across much of Europe, is the continent once again under threat? And are Europeans prepared to address the growing risks and strategic challenges of the second quarter of the 21st century? This ISPI Report, crafted for both expert readers and a broader audience, traces the evolution of Europe’s defence architecture along two parallel tracks: the defence of Europe, basically guaranteed by NATO and shaped through its continual adaptation; and the pursuit of a distinctly European defence identity, now mostly shaped through the European Union. It examines the intersections, overlaps, tensions, and pivotal turning points in this dual process, exploring institutional and organizational frameworks, strategies and doctrines, missions and operations as well as military and industrial capabilities. The storyline leads to 2025, a symbolic and critical juncture that may mark the end of one era and the beginning of another in which Europeans are called upon to take up full responsibility for their own security and defence. Will they rise to the challenge?
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, European Union, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: Europe

3119. Diversification Through Trade: Europe’s FTA Agenda

Author:: Filippo Fasulo and Paola Magri
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: Amid renewed negotiations between the United States and China and the recent meetings of Donald Trump in Asia, global trade dynamics are once again shifting toward a more strategic dimension. While Washington and Beijing explore a framework to ease tariff tensions and expand cooperation in areas such as critical minerals and supply chains, the European Union is stepping up its own trade diplomacy. Seeking to strengthen economic security and reduce strategic dependencies, the EU is advancing a broad agenda of free trade agreements across Latin America (through Mercosur), ASEAN, Central Asia, and the MENA region, as well as with key partners such as Japan, Australia, and India. These initiatives aim not only to open markets but also to foster resilience, sustainable growth, and geopolitical balance in a rapidly evolving global landscape. Where do these negotiations stand today, and what are the key issues that remain to be addressed with these partners?
Topic:: Diplomacy, Geopolitics, Diversification, Trade, Protectionism, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America

3120. Globalisation and the reform of European social models

Author:: André Sapir
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Europe’s labour and social institutions need urgent reform in order to grasp the opportunities offered by globalisation and avoid the threats. But the notion of a single ‘European social model’ is largely unhelpful for thinking about reforms. Of the four main models operating in Europe, the ‘Nordic’ and ‘Anglo-Saxon’ models are both efficient, but only the former manages to combine both equity and efficiency. Critically, the ‘Continental’ and ‘Mediterranean’ models, are inefficient and unsustainable. These models must therefore be reformed, probably by adopting features of the two more efficient models. These reforms may also involve changes towards more or less equity. Combining product and capital market reforms at EU level with labour market and social policies at national level would be desirable, particularly within the euro area. The Lisbon Agenda has failed to deliver this coordination. The best policy strategy would be for the EU to go back to basics and focus all efforts on completing the single market. At the same time, member states that require urgent reform of their labour and social policies must take internal action. Failing to do would not only run the risk that Europe misses the opportunities of globalisation, but could even be damaging to both the single market and monetary union.
Topic:: Globalization, Markets, Reform, European Union, and Institutions
Political Geography:: Europe

3121. EU-Africa: “Dealing” with Migration?

Author:: Matteo Villa
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: This ISPI Report explores how European and African governments remain “stuck” in a policy limbo on migration – a limbo where political narratives collide with structural realities. Migration is not a passing emergency but a structural force linking the two continents. Yet policies swing between deterrence, externalization, and fragile bargains with transit states, while quietly expanding legal work channels. This paradox defines today’s EU-Africa migration regime: restrictive in rhetoric, somewhat expansive in practice, and fragile in results. Can Europe harden asylum while simultaneously widening labor visas? Can responsibility outsourced abroad ever replace solidarity within the Union? What happens when rights and accountability clash with opaque agreements? And why do irregular routes keep adapting, undermining every promise of control?
Topic:: Migration, Reform, European Union, Securitization, and Externalization
Political Geography:: Africa and Europe

3122. Measuring GDP at risk in the low-carbon transition

Author:: Dirk Schoenmaker and Willem Schramade
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: As sustainability challenges push economies into low-carbon transitions, the question arises of what share of GDP is exposed to transition? We develop a two-stage model to examine the share of GDP facing transition risk. The first stage examines which sectors are directly exposed to transition(s) and the second stage assesses the transition preparedness of the exposed sectors. Applying this model to the energy transition in the European Union, we find that Sweden and France have low shares of GDP facing transition risk, while Poland and Bulgaria have high shares of GDP facing transition risk. The main driver is a country’s carbon intensity, which we use as a proxy for transition preparedness. Our GDP-facing-transition risk model can inform policymaking. Countries can stimulate directed change towards low-carbon activities with a combination of taxes for high-carbon technologies and subsidies for low-carbon technologies. Moreover, countries can accelerate reallocation of labour towards low-carbon technologies and sectors by investing in education and retraining.
Topic:: Climate Change, GDP, Economy, Sustainability, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Europe

3123. Europe’s dependence on US foreign military sales and what to do about it

Author:: Juan Mejino-López and Guntram B. Wolff
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Worries about Europe’s dependence on the United States military industrial base have increased with the worsening security situation in Europe and the deterioration of the transatlantic relationship. With a new dataset covering all notifications under the US Foreign Military Sales programme since 2008, we show that Europe has substantially increased its purchases from the US defence industrial base during the last four years, deepening its dependence on US military equipment in the short to medium term. The dependence is particularly significant for high-tech equipment, including air defence, missiles and fighter jets, and for additional equipment and services included in purchases, such as advanced software and sustainment and modernisation required in future years. This strategic reliance on the US, even when the risks associated are low, provide the US with significant bargaining leverage over Europe that can potentially be used in different policy areas, such as trade. Moreover, the US military industrial base faces its own constraints and current and future US administrations might prioritise deliveries to Asia. In response, European policymakers must assess the extent of dependence on the US and develop a strategy on how to minimise the risks. At a time of rising defence budgets, it is crucial that European production of key weapon systems grows faster than demand, so that dependence on the US defence industrial base is gradually reduced. Policymakers should review critical technological dependencies, even for procurement directed at national producers, and should plan to upgrade Europe’s technological base without increasing external dependence. Learning from and cooperating with Ukraine to boost Ukrainian production is one important step. Establishing a timeline to determine the pace at which certain dependencies should be minimised is equally necessary. Europe also needs to reduce its reliance on structural strategic systems provided by the US, such as command, control and communications systems. Given the diverging strategic cultures across Europe, building consensus is of paramount importance. European companies need to grow to the scale that is only achievable in a larger market. Failing to implement a strategy risks Europe losing its freedom and autonomy.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Industrial Policy, Science and Technology, Macroeconomics, Trade Policy, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

3124. What Germany’s medium-term fiscal plan means for Europe

Author:: Jeromin Zettelmeyer, Zsolt Darvas, and Lennard Welslau
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Germany’s July 2025 medium-term fiscal-structural plan exposes the tension between raising public investment in a low-risk country and the requirement in European Union fiscal rules for member state debt to comply with the 60 percent of GDP public debt ratio benchmark. Germany’s plan seeks to reconcile this tension by adopting overly optimistic GDP growth and inflation assumptions, and by proposing a large, backloaded fiscal adjustment. The European Commission endorsed the plan without rigorously assessing these assumptions. Under more realistic economic assumptions, both the budget deficit and the public debt would be significantly higher than the plan’s projections. Rather than beginning to fall by the end of the allowed seven-year adjustment period, German debt will likely continue to rise, even if Germany keeps its promise to sharply reduce expenditure growth after 2026. This outcome would be inconsistent with the EU fiscal framework, but not threaten the sustainability of German public debt, as the fiscal adjustment required to stabilise the debt would remain feasible. Germany will likely ultimately deliver the necessary consolidation, but over a longer period than foreseen by the EU rules. However, the Commission’s approval of the German plan establishes a precedent that could undermine the credibility of the EU’s fiscal framework. Other EU countries may cite the Commission’s leniency to justify higher expenditure growth not grounded in sound economic assumptions during the next round of national fiscal plan submissions in 2028, or even earlier through mid-term revisions. To prevent such an outcome, EU fiscal rules should be adjusted. The best option would be to permit low-risk countries with credible investment plans longer adjustment periods than the current seven-year maximum. Such a reform would result in a coherent system that ensures both debt sustainability and allows more public investment. The second-best option would be to raise the Treaty’s debt reference value from 60 percent to 90 percent of GDP. If neither proves politically feasible, technical adjustments to the debt sustainability analysis could still be made, but these would yield only marginal improvements.
Topic:: Governance, European Union, Investment, Fiscal Policy, and Public Debt
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

3125. Tariffs, deals and multilateral ideals: can the World Trade Organization survive?

Author:: Petros C. Mavroidis
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The second administration of United States President Donald Trump has shaken the foundations of the multilateral trading system by implementing unilateral tariffs on imports from most of its partners, and by signing ‘deals’ with a few of them. It is impossible to legally reconcile these actions with the letter and spirit of the World Trade Organization (WTO). The fundamental purpose of the WTO is to promote non-discriminatory trade liberalisation, primarily through the most-favoured nation (MFN) principle, while subjecting disputes to compulsory third-party adjudication (CTPA). The high, new US tariffs and so-called deals run afoul of MFN, CTPA and several other WTO legal institutions. The US view under Trump seems to be that legality should not stand in the way of political expediency when it comes to promoting US interests as understood by the current US administration. This is happening when the policy relevance of the WTO had already been undermined. Geopolitical concerns have turned its traditional consensus-based voting mechanism into a formidable impediment to block its legislative functions. Its adjudicative function has been moribund since 2019, when the first Trump administration took steps to make the WTO Appellate Body largely redundant. While the WTO still has offices in Geneva, the emerging disequilibrium is hardly sustainable. The WTO has been practically reduced to redundancy, at least with respect to influencing relations between the US and each of its partners. Assuming that current US policy does not change, the relevance of the WTO could wane further. Reviving the multilateral organisation will require a valiant effort from the key stakeholders, and the determination to address issues that the membership has previously avoided. This paper highlights some of them.
Topic:: Governance, Multilateralism, Trade Policy, Transatlantic Relations, and Global Economy
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

3126. Advantages and pitfalls of green public procurement as a European strategic tool

Author:: Marie-Sophie Lappe and Francesco Nicoli
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Public procurement, or the purchasing of goods and services by governments, is among the most powerful policy tools available to the public sector. Accounting for nearly 14 percent of European Union GDP, it shapes markets, signals priorities and can in principle create demand for transformative innovation. Green public procurement (GPP), which aims to include environmental considerations in the procurement process, has been identified as an important lever to deploy public spending in line with the EU’s climate goals. In this paper, we examine GPP as a strategic tool to support the EU’s decarbonisation, industrial and geopolitical objectives, and assess it in context of the EU’s broader policy agenda. While we acknowledge the importance of GPP in the European decarbonisation process, we argue that its widespread use might also lead to policy tensions with the EU’s other strategic objectives, such as fiscal stability and strategic autonomy. Throughout the paper, we illustrate how the interplay of these goals leads to trade-offs that are very complex to accommodate. While procurement can empower and add financial weight to European actions aimed at achieving strategic goals, including decarbonisation, it can only be effective if the EU’s underlying strategic policy goals remain consistent with each other. Trying to fit procurement practices to multiple contrasting objectives might result in longer procurement timelines, less competition, more administrative burden and higher costs for governments. These risk hindering the effectiveness of European public administrations in delivering on the objectives, and also in their daily operations, disrupting the public administration’s purchasing practices. Finally, after having illustrated the potential benefits and pitfalls of green procurement, we discuss and evaluate several policy tools that could help the EU resolve the tensions that a widespread introduction of GPP might produce.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Decarbonization, and Public Procurement
Political Geography:: Europe

3127. Climate risks to global supply chains

Author:: Madalena Barata da Rocha, Heather Grabbe, and Niclas Poitiers
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Extreme weather events are increasing in both intensity and frequency as climate change progresses. Understanding their impacts on the world economy thus takes on increased importance. While most extreme weather events are localised, their economic impacts reverberate through global supply chains (GSCs). The importance of this is widely recognised, but the potential scale of economic risks to GSCs from such ‘fast onset’ events is still poorly understood. In this paper we look at how past extreme weather events affected supply chains, and how the public and private sectors should prepare for and try to mitigate future shocks. We examine three distinct forms of disruption: lower manufacturing production due to natural disasters; reduced agricultural yields caused by floods and drought conditions; and damage to infrastructure and disruption of trade routes by climate conditions. In recent history, such events have had measurable effects, though limited by the diversified nature of global supply chains. Extreme events, such as the 2011 Thai floods or the 2022 drought affecting the Panama Canal, had measurable macroeconomic effects but remained short lived. As such events become more frequent and intense, the impact will become significantly larger and mitigation measures more important. To prepare for the future, businesses need to invest not only in a better understanding of the risks to their supply chains, but also in mitigation measures. For governments, it will become increasingly important to set the right incentives for companies to mitigate their risks. At the international level, as the example of the 2007-2008 global rice crisis showed, uncoordinated policy responses can strongly exacerbate the effect of otherwise manageable climate-related production shortfalls. This highlights the need for globally coordinated policies.
Topic:: Climate Change, Infrastructure, Economy, Manufacturing, Trade, Supply Chains, and Weather
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3128. COVID-19’s economic impact on low-income countries: preparing for the next shock

Author:: Niclas Poitiers and Costanza Greppi Maturana
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic sent shockwaves through global supply chains as borders closed, lockdowns went into effect and demand plummeted. This shock was felt particularly by low and lower-middle income countries with economies reliant on a limited set of exports. While some effects of this shock were more short-lived than initially feared, the pandemic nevertheless left a long-lasting mark on many of the countries most affected. Commodity prices dropped sharply as pandemic measures were enacted. This initial drop was a serious problem for developing countries that relied heavily on exports of those commodities, even after prices rebounded. Amid falling export revenues, their currencies depreciated and they faced problems financing imports of vital goods such as food staples and medicines. This, coupled with increased interest rates, caused issues in servicing debt denominated in foreign currency. Countries involved in textile manufacturing suffered from a breakdown of the supply chain caused by a drop in demand from advanced economies and closures of textile mills. This had severe consequences for the large labour force involved in textile manufacturing in low-income countries. Overall, countries with a more diversified export base and a wider set of destination countries weathered the storm better. When designing their near-shoring and friend-shoring strategies to deal with geopolitical risk, advanced economies should take into account the risks faced by low and lower-middle-income countries in term of lack of diversification.
Topic:: Financial Crisis, Trade Policy, COVID-19, and Emerging Economies
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3129. Gender wealth inequality in the European Union: a distributional perspective

Author:: Zsolt Darvas and Nina Ruer
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: This paper investigates gender-related disparities in wealth in European Union countries using the 2010-2021 waves of the European Central Bank’s Household Finance and Consumption Survey. To address the difficulty of within-household wealth allocation and provide a cleaner comparison of men and women’s wealth positions, we focus on single, never-married individuals aged 25-65, without dependants. A full-sample regression controlling for demographic, labour market and socioeconomic characteristics does not reveal a statistically significant gender wealth gap in the EU overall, or in most EU countries. When examining the wealth gap against wealth distribution, we find negligible gaps among the less wealthy. However, we find significant gaps among the middle class and the wealthiest individuals. This distributional disparity was barely visible in 2010 but had become pronounced by 2021, suggesting that gender-based wealth disparities have widened over time. Men are more likely to own property, operate businesses and invest in risky financial assets, which are all major drivers of wealth. By contrast, women hold more bank deposits and low-risk assets. Although women have higher educational attainment, which is typically associated with greater wealth, this advantage does not fully translate into financial outcomes. Finally, we document substantial cross-country differences, possibly shaped by cultural norms, institutional settings, labour market histories and inheritance regimes.
Topic:: Education, European Union, Employment, Microeconomics, Gender, and Financial Literacy
Political Geography:: Europe

3130. European exports in geopolitical storms

Author:: Niclas Poitiers, Madalena Barata da Rocha, and Nicolas Boivin
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The global trading system is undergoing profound changes, and current developments in the US and China will have significant implications for the European economy. Both countries were at the heart of globalisation but are now becoming less dynamic export markets. Chinese economic growth is expected to slow down as pressures on the economy accumulate. In the United States, trade policy has taken a sharp inward turn. For the EU, these shifts point to structurally weakening demand growth from two of its largest trading partners, which together account for nearly 30 percent of all EU-generated value-added exports. However, in this paper we show that the growth of EU exports is driven to a much greater extent by demand in other markets, and we argue for a stronger policy focus on the 70 percent of EU value added in trade with other partners. While reduced demand from the US or China would pose challenges – especially for highly exposed sectors like pharmaceuticals – there remains substantial scope for the EU to diversify and expand trade with the rest of the world. The EU already has an extensive network of trade agreements, covering 74 percent of trade with partners other than the US and China. Deepening these relationships and forging new partnerships should be priorities. Offering a stable and rules-based trade regime can help offset losses from reduced integration with the US and China.
Topic:: European Union, Geopolitics, Trade Policy, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

3131. Europe’s electricity capacity mechanisms need to be better coordinated

Author:: Pär Holmberg, Christoph Maurer, Monika Morawiecka, Fabien Roques, and Georg Zachmann
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: A growing number of European governments believe that guaranteeing adequate energy supplies requires specific ‘capacity mechanisms’ to compensate power plants for their availability, not solely for electricity generation. Capacity mechanisms appear set to become a permanent feature of electricity market design across much of Europe. However, poorly coordinated national capacity mechanisms could undermine consumer gains from the expansion of interconnectors and years of progress in coupling Europe’s power markets. A patchwork of capacity mechanisms developed according to national preferences would erode predictability for market participants, undermine investment efficiency and weaken competition. Improving the design of capacity mechanisms and, in particular, their cross-border coordination is thus important to prevent potential distortions from spilling over to other energy market segments, which would hinder scaling up of efficient solutions for secure, affordable and sustainable electricity supplies in Europe. Conversely, joint or closely coordinated capacity mechanisms at regional level that allow access to neighbours’ portfolios will increase security of supply and save money for households and industry. Coordinating or joining up national capacity mechanisms is politically and technically challenging. EU countries prefer to retain sovereignty over their electricity mixes and adequacy levels, and national policymakers baulk at solutions perceived as sending consumers’ money abroad or as financing domestic capacity that ends up addressing adequacy shortfalls elsewhere. Technically, coordinating capacity mechanism design and ensuring confidence in delivery of power across borders in times of scarcity is an important prerequisite. Harmonising the commitments traded in national capacity mechanisms or creating interfaces between very different mechanisms is complex. Overcoming such inefficiencies requires high-level political commitment to compromise, including on rules for energy sharing during scarcity, cost-sharing, cross-border compatibility of capacity mechanisms and credible institutions that can perform regional adequacy assessments and enforcement. Compromise must emerge through a political process that builds trust among stakeholders. The EU could make approval of national capacity mechanisms conditional on engagement in regional coordination. Done right, this could reduce the cost of securing adequate capacities, reinforce the internal electricity market and strengthen broader energy-policy coordination across borders.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Electricity, Green Deal, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe

3132. Efficiency and distribution in the European Union’s digital deregulation push

Author:: Mario Mariniello
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: To boost the European Union’s digital economy, the European Commission is seeking to reduce the burden of its digital rulebook. However, the Commission’s deregulatory strategy lacks a rigorous, evidence-based analysis of the expected effects entailed by proposed burden reductions, is insufficiently transparent and accountable in relation to potential distributive trade-offs, and is overly focused on a narrow geopolitical goal of ‘catching up’ with the United States, which may neglect Europe’s distinct social and institutional priorities. This paper introduces a framework to analyse these issues. It distinguishes between efficiency effects that enhance total societal value, and distributive effects which determine how value is shared within society. The framework explains how total factor productivity (a proxy for competitiveness) may have a complementary and a substitutive relationship with digital regulatory protection. The Commission’s deregulatory initiatives may entail both efficiency and distributive effects, but that the Commission typically only acknowledges the former. This misrepresentation leads to unrealistic goals, such as EU companies matching the same level of data use as US companies without compromising European privacy standards. Digital regulation can be designed to generate value and can distribute that value in accordance with the goals the Commission intends to pursue. A distinction should be introduced between ‘mitigating’ distributive effects, in which the proposed initiatives shift the distribution of value among players without fundamentally altering business models, and ‘steering’ distributive effects, in which proposed initiatives may encourage the development of alternative approaches to technological development. In pursuing a deregulatory strategy, the Commission should be more transparent about its aims. The Commission should ground reforms in robust impact analysis, without a preconceived goal in terms of the desired amount of reduction in regulatory burden. It should also clearly identify the end goals while detailing potential trade-offs between them, and adopt measurable indicators for efficiency, mitigating distributive effects and steering distributive effects, in order to assess the potential effectiveness of its initiatives and to understand their actual impacts.
Topic:: European Union, Digital Economy, Institutions, Microeconomics, Innovation, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: Europe

3133. Shifting priorities, slow progress: an analysis of EU tax recommendations

Author:: Roel Dom, Costanza Greppi Maturana, and Pascal Saint-Amans
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The European Commission is increasingly emphasising tax policy as a tool to respond to emerging challenges, ranging from growth and competitiveness to the climate transition and inequality. Through the European Semester, the European Commission proposes to European Union countries annual country-specific recommendations (CSRs) in various areas of economic governance, including tax policy guidance aligned with EU priorities. This paper examines how the content, focus and implementation of tax-related CSRs changed between 2011 and 2025. We draw on the Commission’s CSR database and classify each recommendation by targeted tax instrument and policy objective, and assess implementation over time. We find a clear shift in priorities away from labour and consumption tax reforms, and towards capital taxation, tax administration and environmental taxes. This mirrors a parallel reorientation of objectives, from growth and fiscal sustainability toward environmental sustainability and tackling tax avoidance. More recently, however, growth-related objectives appear to be making a comeback, possibly linked to renewed concerns about competitiveness. However, these shifts do not appear to reflect the successful implementation of older recommendations. Few tax-related CSRs are fully or substantially implemented, with notable differences between countries in degree of implementation. These findings suggest that changes in the Commission’s tax-related advice have been driven less by the successful implementation of earlier reforms and more by a reorientation of the Commission’s policy agenda toward new objectives. This widening scope highlights the European Semester’s flexibility in integrating emerging priorities. However, poor implementation also suggests there still are challenges to soft coordination on tax. Strengthening coordination requires clearer prioritisation, more specific guidance, sustained (national) commitment and greater attention to national contexts and reform feasibility.
Topic:: Governance, European Union, Economic Growth, Tax Systems, Macroeconomics, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:: Europe

3134. What will it take to stabilise debt in advanced countries?

Author:: Zsolt Darvas, Gonzalo Huertas, Lennard Welslau, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: This paper analyses the prospects for debt stabilisation in the countries of the European Union, the United Kingdom and the United States, using two methodologies. First, we estimate the level of the structural primary balance that is required to asymptotically stabilise the debt ratio with a 70 percent probability, and assess the plausibility of reaching this level over the medium term, using both historical benchmarks and stochastic forecasts centred on International Monetary Fund projections. Second, we estimate ‘fiscal reaction functions’ that measure the reaction of the primary balance to the debt level. We find that: 1) debt-stabilising primary balances are generally within historical precedent – well below 3 percent of GDP; 2) the fiscal adjustment required to reach debt-stabilising primary balances is very high in several countries – specifically, the US, France, the UK, Slovakia, Poland and Romania, which must increase their primary fiscal balances by over 5 percentage points of GDP; 3) the feedback coefficient from debt to the primary balance remains positive in all countries, but has significantly declined since the global financial crisis and is not significantly different from zero in most countries. Our main conclusion is that public debt in the countries in our sample remains sustainable in the sense that the fiscal adjustment required to stabilise the debt is feasible. However, undertaking this adjustment will require a larger and/or more protracted fiscal effort than has been typical for most advanced countries and that is currently expected by the IMF. In the meantime, countries with large adjustment needs could be vulnerable to shifts in market sentiment.
Topic:: Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, and Public Debt
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3135. The Western Balkan energy sector: between Russia, the European Union and the green transition

Author:: Nina Vujanović, Rouven Stubbe, and Maria Catarina Louro
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: To upgrade their energy sectors, Western Balkan countries should transition away from dependence on Russian energy, converge with the European Union through electricity market coupling and phase out coal. Significant strain characterises each of these transitions. Region-specific differences in each area are also pronounced: Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina still depend on Russian oil and gas, while Albania is the leader in the green transition, and Montenegro is relatively advanced in each of the three areas. Yet, all Western Balkan countries are behind on regulatory alignment with the EU, delaying market coupling that was initially planned for 2027. There are strong reasons to accelerate this process, given significant EU/Western Balkan energy integration already: up to 70 percent of electricity flows in the Western Balkans pass between EU countries, for example. Given the strategic role of the Western Balkans as a major electricity transit corridor for the EU, faster integration would also enhance system efficiency, provide security against Russian interference and bring the benefits of complementary electricity markets to both the EU and the Western Balkans. Meanwhile, the region’s green energy potential remains untapped and further investment is needed. Western Balkan countries should set goals on merging faster with the EU energy union, phasing out coal and benefitting from abundant solar and wind resources, in way that are conducive to their energy sector competitiveness and in line with the green transition.
Topic:: Industrial Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, Macroeconomics, Decarbonization, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe

3136. How resilient is Russia’s economy after four years of war?

Author:: Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: In 2022-2025 the Russian economy demonstrated resilience despite the increasing costs of the war in Ukraine and the extensive economic and financial sanctions imposed on Russia by the coalition of Western countries. Fiscal accounts, though under strain, have remained under control. However, after nearly four years of war, the associated fiscal and quasi-fiscal costs have grown significantly and started to challenge macroeconomic and financial stability. Inflation has been well above the Bank of Russia’s target. The high growth rates in 2023-2024, fuelled by war-related public spending and a corporate credit boom, have decelerated in 2025 due to capacity constraints. Nevertheless, the Russian government still has the fiscal capacity to continue the war in the short term. It has some fiscal reserves, can increase domestic borrowing and may seek to raise further non-hydrocarbon taxation. The long-term perspectives look much worse. Structural and institutional weaknesses, such as the adverse demographic trends, the continuous dependence on hydrocarbon production and exports and the poor business and investment climate will be magnified by the costs of the war and sanctions, increasing isolation from the West and entrenching an inward-oriented development strategy.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, Public Debt, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia and Eurasia

3137. Steeled for Protectionism

Author:: Clark Packard and Alfredo Carrillo Obregon
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: ver the last 60 years, the federal government has showered the domestic steel industry with every conceivable form of protection from import competition, from tariffs, quotas, and trade remedies to voluntary export restraints, Buy American procurement preferences, and restrictions on trade and foreign investment under the guise of national security. These policies have further entrenched the steel industry as a protected constituency that wields significant influence over trade policy, which in turn has led to more—and increasingly complex—schemes for further shielding the industry from imports. As steel is an essential input for many products, from vehicles and appliances to construction materials and machinery, the unholy alliance between Washington and Big Steel has come at a high cost for steel-using firms in the United States, and therefore for Americans who consume final goods made with steel and who fund public infrastructure projects through their taxpayer dollars. Moreover, the federal government’s endeavors to protect the domestic steel industry have sowed political dysfunction both at home and abroad, with industry advocates cycling through the proverbial revolving door of Washington politics, and officials’ attempts to cater to Big Steel undermining international trade negotiations, relationships with long-standing trading partners, and even the functioning of the World Trade Organization. And yet for all the protection that the government has conferred to the industry and all its costs, the steel industry’s prospects show remarkably little improvement: Major producers are struggling to innovate and compete, output and capacity utilization have stagnated, employment continues its long-term decline, and prices are among the highest in the world. Altogether, the history of steel protectionism in the United States is yet another case study in the failures of protectionism to reinvigorate declining industries and the consequences of pursuing these policies.
Topic:: Economy, Tariffs, Trade, Protectionism, and Steel
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

3138. Licensing Requirements Would Block Care and Justice for Sexual Assault Victims

Author:: Jeffrey A. Singer, Akiva Malamet, Spencer Pratt, and Michael F. Cannon
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Sexual assault is a deeply traumatic experience. The emotional toll often includes feelings of shame, guilt, and fear, contributing to a sense of powerlessness and vulnerability. Survivors may grapple with post-traumatic stress disorder, anxiety, depression, and other mental health challenges. Sexual assault victims typically seek care at hospital emergency departments mere hours after the most traumatic event of their lives. Entrepreneurial nurses created the specialty of sexual assault nurse examiner (SANE) to provide high-quality, compassionate care for sexual assault victims and reliable evidence collection for prosecutors. These nurses have created voluntary, third-party educational and certifying organizations to develop and revise SANE professional standards. Research shows that sexual assault nurse examiners provide high-quality, compassionate care and that sexual assault prosecution rates rise after communities establish SANE programs. Yet SANEs are in short supply. In some states, regulations block competent nurses from examining sexual assault victims. SANE licensing, mandatory training, or certification requirements increase barriers to care for sexual assault victims, slow the SANE profession’s development, and routinely subvert the needs of sexual assault victims to those of the practitioners they regulate. Worse, state licensing authorities have repeatedly and knowingly upheld or reinstated the licenses of physicians who have sexually assaulted patients. Some then go on to assault other patients. Licensing is not the right model for protecting sexual assault victims. States should avoid creating barriers to nurses who wish to develop SANE certification programs or to specialize as SANEs. States that have already done so should remove those barriers.
Topic:: Sexual Violence, Public Policy, Licensing, and Nursing
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

3139. Their Own Two Feet: How Europeans Can Lead on Conventional Deterrence in Europe

Author:: Benjamin Giltner
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Fiscal constraints at home, China’s rise in the East, and America’s limited interests in Europe make reducing the US force presence in Europe an appealing concept for policymakers. Europe has economic and military advantages over Russia that make such action possible. As a narrow military analysis, this paper explains how a European-led NATO can deter Russia without US troops on the continent. A European-led NATO should adopt a defensive doctrine using a “defense-in-depth” force deployment. As part of a defense-in-depth deployment, European countries within NATO should eschew deep strikes into Russian territory, instead investing in and deploying light defenses in the Baltics and deploying their mechanized and armored capabilities throughout Germany and Poland. To successfully implement a defensive doctrine exercising defense-in-depth force deployment, the Europeans must spend more on defense and reduce tensions with Russia. The United States should begin withdrawing American troops from Europe for several reasons, including to induce Europe to implement such policies. This doctrine and force deployment would enable a European-led NATO to deter Russia while minimizing risks of escalation. They would also signal to Russia that it would be defeated on the battlefield should it attempt to conquer NATO territory. Although European forces likely would be incapable of fully protecting the Baltics, their lack of geographic depth makes them exceptionally difficult to defend regardless of force deployment and America’s involvement on the continent. Europe is wealthy and populous enough to carry out a defensive doctrine and defense-in-depth force deployment, and for it to do so would be less risky and costly than the status quo for the United States.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Armed Forces
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

3140. The $15 Trillion Emergency Spending Loophole

Author:: Dominik Lett
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Congress has designated $12.5 trillion in spending for emergencies over the past 35 years, resulting in $2.5 trillion in additional interest costs. Poorly designed emergency spending rules allow Congress to evade spending limits and routinely designate non-emergency line items as emergencies, increasing wasteful and excessive spending. High deficits, an escalating federal debt, and the insolvency of major entitlement programs mean that Congress is facing several budgetary challenges that will only grow in importance. Congress cannot afford further abuse of emergency spending. It is time for Congress to rein in the emergency spending loophole. This paper presents comprehensive estimates of emergency spending and resulting interest costs, with data going back to 1991. According to my estimates, Congress designated 9 percent of federal budget authority as emergency spending during that time. Emergency spending is roughly equal to the amount that Congress has spent on Medicaid and veterans’ programs combined. Roughly half of the emergency spending since 1991 has been discretionary spending (federal programs that receive funding through annual appropriations), mostly in response to the Great Recession and COVID-19 pandemic, and for disaster relief and military operations. Mandatory spending, also called direct spending, accounts for the other half. Five Great Recession and pandemic-related laws alone account for 87 percent of mandatory emergency spending. The budgetary share of emergency spending has grown to 11 percent of total budget authority over the past decade. In this analysis, I provide several specific reforms that would reduce emergency spending, decrease abuse, and enhance oversight.
Topic:: Reform, Budget, Public Spending, and Congress
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

3141. Unnecessary Relics: The Surgeon General and the Public Health Service Commissioned Corps

Author:: Jeffrey A. Singer, Akiva Malamet, Bautista Vivanco, and Michael F. Cannon
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: The US surgeon general has morphed from an apolitical supervisor of medical personnel to a divisive activist who undermines public health. Successive administrations have turned the Office of the Surgeon General into a highly political platform that opines on divisive non–public health issues ranging from gun control and social media to labor and housing policy. Such mission creep undermines the effectiveness of legitimate government public health activities. The surgeon general oversees the 6,000-member Public Health Service Commissioned Corps—a uniformed, noncombatant service that provides personnel for various federal agencies, including many non–public health roles. The Commissioned Corps takes longer to deploy than civilian alternatives, and many of its functions are redundant. A 2010 report from the Department of Health and Human Services estimated that employing Corps officers costs 15 percent more than hiring civilians. Replacing Corps officers with equivalent civilian employees could save $1.3 billion annually. Eliminating the surgeon general’s divisive political advocacy would be a step toward restoring trust in public health officials. Congress should dissolve the Office of the Surgeon General and the Commissioned Corps, eliminate their non–public health activities, and reassign any legitimate public health activities to other agencies.
Topic:: Government, Budget, Public Health, Public Spending, and Surgeon General
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

3142. Immigrants Cut Victimization Rates, Boost Crime Reporting

Author:: David Bier and Julián Salazar
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Americans are concerned about immigrants’ involvement in crime and their potential reluctance to cooperate with law enforcement. The National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) can help address these concerns. First, since criminals typically commit offenses near where they live and against people with similar demographics, the victimization rate can show whether immigrant communities are experiencing higher crime rates. Second, the NCVS can prove whether immigrants are less likely to report crimes to the police. The NCVS started recording citizenship status in 2017. From 2017 to 2023, immigrants were 44 percent less likely than US-born Americans to be victimized by violent criminals and were 64 percent less likely to be harmed by someone they knew. Immigrants also worked with police to solve violent crimes. Immigrant victims were 29 percent more likely than US-born victims to personally report violent crime to the police. Immigrants worked with police on 5.1 million crimes during that time. Victims’ cooperation with police led to nearly half a million criminal arrests and about 300,000 arrests of violent offenders. Because they commit fewer violent crimes, immigrants lower the violent-victimization rate in the United States. Furthermore, at least prior to the current mass deportation efforts, immigrants cooperated more with police to solve violent crimes when they occurred. Americans should trust that their immigrant neighbors help create safer communities.
Topic:: Crime, Immigration, Law Enforcement, and Victimization
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

3143. Reforming Federal Laws on Private Sector Labor Unions

Author:: Charles W. Baird
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: In America’s labor markets, interactions between employers and employees are generally based on voluntary exchange. Employers make offers of wages and benefits, while workers offer their services at terms that are suitable to them. In the absence of force and fraud, job providers and job applicants can bargain to reach agreement in a mutually beneficial manner. In the early 20th century, however, the idea that employers had too much bargaining power relative to employees began gaining favor. Congress responded by passing a series of laws allowing the formation of worker cartels called labor unions, which replaced individual employment agreements with collective bargaining. Congress imposed the Davis–Bacon Act of 1931, the Norris–LaGuardia Act of 1932, and the National Labor Relations Act (NLRA) of 1935 on the private sector workforce. The laws created rules for exclusive representation, mandatory union dues, and other labor force restrictions. These labor laws are still on the books, and they are deeply flawed. They damage the economy and violate individual rights, particularly the freedom of association. This study describes the 1930s labor laws and discusses why they should be repealed to allow greater freedom for workers and employers.
Topic:: Law, Reform, Private Sector, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

3144. Aimless Rivalry The Futility of US–China Competition in the Middle East

Author:: Jon Hoffman
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Fear in Washington over China’s expanding regional presence is quickly becoming a new rationale for an expansive US foreign policy in the Middle East. But China remains an opportunistic actor in the Middle East, driven by practical needs, not by aspirations to dominate the region. Beijing lacks the ability and desire to assume a dominant position in the Middle East, and its ability to jeopardize US regional interests is limited. Centering US Middle East policy on competition with China is a recipe for disaster. It is an aimless rivalry divorced from concrete US interests. The United States has little to fear from China in the Middle East. By viewing every development in the Middle East through the framework of zero-sum competition with China, Washington is operating on faulty assumptions that will result in counterproductive policies. If navigated correctly, the return of multipolarity to the Middle East can be a net benefit for the United States, allowing Washington to disentangle itself from the region.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Strategic Competition, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Asia, North America, and United States of America

3145. Better Long-Term Care for Billions Less

Author:: Stephen A. Moses
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Medicaid is a means-tested government health and long-term care program that states operate largely with funds from the federal government. In 2025, Medicaid will spend nearly $1 trillion on behalf of 84 million enrollees, or nearly $12,000 per enrollee. Medicaid is the largest purchaser of long-term care (LTC) in the United States, covering nursing home, memory, personal, and other forms of care for qualifying persons. In 2025, Medicaid will spend roughly $80,000 per enrollee receiving Medicaid LTC subsidies, which account for more than one-third of Medicaid spending and nearly half of total LTC spending. Yet, Medicaid subsidies reduce LTC quality, strain state budgets, and contribute to a federal debt that has surged past 100 percent of US gross domestic product. Counterintuitively, Medicaid subsidizes LTC for middle-class and affluent individuals, who do not need government assistance. Middle-class people easily qualify for Medicaid under the basic financial eligibility rules. Some individuals with significant assets artificially impoverish themselves to become eligible for and receive Medicaid LTC subsidies. Eliminating Medicaid LTC subsidies for individuals who could meet or could have planned to meet their own LTC needs would improve LTC quality and reduce the burdens Medicaid imposes on taxpayers. Middle-class and affluent seniors could draw on their assets and private LTC insurance, saving Medicaid as much as $100 billion per year without impairing its ability to serve those who truly need assistance.
Topic:: Economy, Medicaid, Subsidies, Public Spending, and Healthcare System
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

3146. Protection for Whom? The Origins of Protective Labor Laws for Women

Author:: Matthias Doepke, Hanno Foerster, Anne Hannusch, and Michèle Tertilt
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Over the past two centuries, the movement for women’s rights and gender equality in the United States has achieved remarkable milestones: Property and economic rights were granted to married women in the 1800s, women gained the right to vote in 1920, and sweeping civil rights reforms were implemented in the second half of the 20th century. Given these developments, progress has appeared to be steady. Yet, this process has not been a story of ever-expanding rights. We can gain insight into the complex political and economic forces that have shaped women’s labor rights by examining a striking historical reversal in the United States: the rise and fall of gender-specific, so-called protective labor laws between the late 19th and mid-20th centuries.
Topic:: Women, Employment, Economy, Protection, and Labor Law
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

3147. Neoliberalism and Globalization Are Not Undermining Democracy

Author:: Stefani Branilović and Tibor Rutar
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Neoliberalism and globalization are two distinct yet interrelated processes that began to spread across the world in the 1970s and 1980s. Neoliberalism mainly aims to limit the role of the government in the economy through corporate deregulation, cuts to social benefits, privatization of public assets, and tax cuts for corporations and the investing class. It promotes the free movement of goods, services, capital, and money within countries and throughout the world. Neoliberalism advocates a free-market economy in which governments exist only to maximize the efficiency of global markets, such as by securing property rights. Meanwhile, globalization is the process that promotes the integration of markets worldwide and intensifies economic, political, social, and cultural relations. In other words, globalization creates an interconnected world and removes barriers between countries.
Topic:: Globalization, Democracy, Economy, and Neoliberalism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3148. What Are the Costs of Weakening Shareholder Primacy?

Author:: Benjamin Bennett, René M. Stulz, and Zexi Wang
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: The mainstream theory of corporate governance in the United States holds that the primary responsibility of the board of directors and management is to maximize the wealth of shareholders. This is the theory of shareholder primacy. If directors and officers stray from their duty, shareholders can constrain or remove them. An alternative theory is that directors and management should consider all stakeholders, including employees, customers, and communities. This theory offers limited guidance when decisions affect stakeholders differently, so it gives much more discretion to directors and officers than the shareholder primacy theory. As a result, the stakeholder theory enables insiders to pursue their own interests and find excuses for underperformance.
Topic:: Environment, Economy, Corporate Governance, and Shareholder Value
Political Geography:: North America, United States of America, and Nevada

3149. The Impacts of Grade Retention Policy with Minimal Retention

Author:: Jordan S. Berne, Brian A. Jacob, Christina Weiland, and Katharine O. Strunk
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Strong early literacy skills are crucial for children’s school and life success. However, the latest results from the National Assessment of Educational Progress reveal that only about a third of American fourth graders read at a proficient level, with children from historically marginalized backgrounds trailing behind their peers. As educators work to improve reading outcomes, requiring students to repeat a grade—known as retention—has become a common, though controversial, component of state policy reforms, with mixed evidence on student outcomes.
Topic:: Education, Literacy, and Reading
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

3150. The Impact of Deregulation on Long-Term Acute Care Hospitals

Author:: Markus Bjoerkheim and Ali Melad
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Acentury ago, only 5 percent of Americans were 65 or older. Today, that figure is about 17 percent, and it is projected to reach 23 percent by 2050. This demographic shift poses a two-headed challenge: How can our society provide health care access to a rapidly growing population of seniors with extensive and increasingly specialized health care needs without further straining an already unsustainable federal budget? Regulations pose many barriers. For example, certificate-of-need (CON) laws restrict the entry and expansion of health care facilities in 35 states. Since the 1980s, 15 states have either completely or partially eliminated their CON laws. However, CON laws for long-term care services have largely been kept in place, making it difficult for researchers to estimate the effects of these laws on long-term health care services and access to care.
Topic:: Aging, Public Health, Hospitals, and Deregulation
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS