Publication Year: within 1 Year and within 25 Years

3001. Childhood poverty and life expectancy: Evidence from Brazilian human development units

Author:: D'ercio de Assis
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:: This paper analyzes data from urban Brazil using supervised machine-learning techniques to shed greater light on the role that childhood poverty plays in lifelong health and longevity. By examining a unique dataset collected over a 10-year period from thousands of very small, sub-neighborhood-level geographic areas, I document that child poverty measures have higher predictive power than household income, and other major socioeconomic variables, in forecasting child and adult health outcomes and lifespans. In addition, using a rich dictionary of hundreds of variables and different data-driven specification selections, the machine-learning models reveal that experiencing more severe deprivation in childhood is associated with a decrease of 4 percentage points in the probability of survival to ages 40 and 60. These predictions offer further economic insights on the importance of early life circumstances for human development.
Topic:: Development, Child Poverty, Socioeconomics, and Life Expectancy
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

3002. Discrimination spillovers, glass ceilings and pay gaps

Author:: Gianni De Fraja and József Sákovics
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:: This paper is a theoretical analysis of the consequences of workplace discrimination. We prove that discrimination against a group at lower levels of the hierarchy affects the pay of members of the same group at higher levels, leading to a “pay gap” relative to non-discriminated workers. These spillovers in turn induce firms to alter the match between workers and jobs for the discriminated group, potentially leading to a “glass ceiling”. The phenomenon can occur even in firms where “equal pay for equal jobs” appears to be adhered to. The explanation is based on the standard participation and incentive constraints: the need to compensate workers for the direct discrimination they suffer, to induce them to work, and the need to maintain pay differentials between job levels, to provide effort incentives. We end the paper showing that neither competition among workers, nor competition among firms for workers eliminates these spillovers.
Topic:: Business, Discrimination, Glass Ceiling, and Competition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3003. The Ukrainian War as an Anti-Systemic Imperative and Its Geopolitical Consequences: The Rise of BRICS Influence

Author:: Charles Pennaforte
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: The so-called Special Military Operation (Ukraine War) launched by Russia in February 2022 has had a major impact on geopolitics, the economy and international relations. The economic sanctions promoted by the US and the European Union (EU) have made Russia one of the most sanctioned countries in the world.The main idea of the US and the EU with sanctions was to promote the economic suffocation of Vladimir Putin’s government in an attempt to hinder the goals of the definitive annexation of the Donbass region and, if possible, to promote a regime change in Russia, even if it was not openly declared. On the other hand, the BRICS countries have not followed the West in applying economic sanctions, nor has the so-called Global South, despite great political pressure.This scenario brings with it a new perspective, both geopolitical and economic: the consolidation of the decline of the so-called US hegemony (Wallerstein, 2004) and the acceleration of the process of weakening the dollar as the standard for international trade. This process is still in the embryonic phase, as we will see in the course of our work.
Topic:: International Relations, Geopolitics, Economy, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

3004. Reflections on Brazil and Defense Cooperation: Between Historical Advantages and Challenges (1822-Present)

Author:: Kamilla Raquel Rizzi and Danielle Jacon Ayres Pinto
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: This research analyzes Defense cooperation in Brazil, seeking to facilitate a theoretical discussion and a proposal for a historical periodization of the actions of this type of cooperation in Brazil. When answering which are the most evident characteristics of cooperation in the area, as a working hypothesis it is pointed out that there are a) advantages and challenges in the actions of Defense cooperation in Brazil, b) a correlation between Defense and foreign policy in these actions and c) the mapping of priority areas throughout history is evident. Defense cooperation is a strategy that involves collaboration between countries to increase defense capacity, share information, conduct joint training, develop technologies and strengthen diplomatic ties. The review of the theoretical literature in the area points to several possibilities, understandings and paths for Defense cooperation, but in this research it was chosen to use the concept of stability as a factor generating cooperation, as well as the evolution of the correlation between Defense and foreign policy in Brazilian history.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, History, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

3005. Canada's Contributions to Peacekeeping in Lebanon: Preserving Peace and Stability

Author:: Mohamad Zreik
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: Canada has a long history of participating in peacekeeping missions around the world, and has played an important role in maintaining peace and stability in many conflict-affected countries. This study aims to examine Canada's contributions to peacekeeping efforts in Lebanon, with a focus on the role Canada has played in preserving peace and stability in the country. The research will analyze Canada's involvement in the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), including the impact of Canada's presence on the peace process, the challenges and successes Canada has faced in maintaining peace, and the broader impact of Canadian peacekeeping efforts on the international community. By examining Canada's peacekeeping efforts in Lebanon, this study aims to shed light on the ways in which Canada contributes to peace and stability around the world and to explore the effectiveness of Canadian peacekeeping in resolving conflict and promoting stability.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Peacekeeping, Political stability, and United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL)
Political Geography:: Middle East, Canada, and Lebanon

3006. The Rise of Right-Wing Populism in the European Union: Causes and Consequences

Author:: Adrian Cuevas Talens
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: The rise of right-wing populism in the EU over the past two decades has reshaped European politics. This paper explores the causes, characteristics, and impacts of this trend, focusing on political, economic, and social factors. The 2008 financial crisis, the 2015 refugee crisis, and debates on sovereignty and EU integration have heightened the appeal of populist rhetoric. Right-wing populists frame themselves as defenders of "common people" against "corrupt elites" and immigration. Case studies from Greece, Spain, Sweden, Germany, the UK, and Italy highlight how these parties gained traction and their effects on EU cohesion and democratic values. Addressing these challenges involves strengthening democratic institutions and enhancing solidarity among EU member states.
Topic:: Politics, European Union, Populism, Right-Wing Politics, Regional Politics, Cohesion, and Immigration
Political Geography:: Europe

3007. A New Scramble? Geopolitical Economy of Multi-Polarity in the Sahel and its Implications for Africa's Economic Sovereignty

Author:: Al-Chukwuma Okoli and Abdulkareem Alhassan
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: This study explores how the Sahel has emerged as a contested space for influence, competitive stakes, resources, and markets. The paper posits that the Sahel’s geopolitical economy is characterized by a new scramble – a multi-polar struggle by the global and regional powers – for dominance and strategic advantage, with far-reaching implications for the sovereignty of the member states as well as regional stability and development. The paper underscores the nuanced issues that underpin the evolving geopolitical landscape in the Sahel and what they hold African agency and sovereign virtues, especially in the realms of economy and geo-strategy.
Topic:: Political Economy, Sovereignty, Geopolitics, Multipolarity, and Great Powers
Political Geography:: Africa and Sahel

3008. The Disinformation in International Relations: Examining the Vulnerabilities of Brazil

Author:: Leandro Loureiro Costa
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: Some of the foremost concerns regarding information security in International Relations revolve around the repercussions of misinformation on the internal political process, with the aim of undermining adversary states. Certain studies have indicated the inefficacy of such endeavors in yielding substantial results in modifying the behavior of the targets. Given this assumption, this research endeavored to assess, in the context of Brazil, three hypotheses questioning the efficacy of this type of instrument. The conclusion is that the country finds itself in a state of strategic vulnerability but has undertaken institutional efforts to counteract the potential ramifications of a disinformation campaign.
Topic:: International Relations, Disinformation, Vulnerability, Information Security, and Subversion
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

3009. Energy and Natural Resources in the Argentina-China Relationship: Interests, Cooperation and Challenges

Author:: Julian Bilmes
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: The aim of this article is to analyze the outstanding role that energy and natural resources play in the increasing relationship between China and Argentina to inquire what type of development is outlined. These topics have a central role in terms of the bilateral trade balance, investment, funding and around cooperation mechanisms, due to Argentine bet to build new export complexes and Chinese needs for its energy and supply security. Oil and gas, mining and different type of energy generation are analyzed: nuclear, hydroelectric, solar and wind, highlighting Chinese firms positioning as well as bilateral cooperation agreements, its obstacles and challenges
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Natural Resources, Trade, and Energy
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Argentina, and South America

3010. Ecopolitics and Ecological Trends in the Middle East: Realism or Utopia?

Author:: Katarzyna Czornik
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: The paper explains that Islam and ecology do not contradict each other. Countries dominated by Muslims focus on the development of ecological trends. Ecological trends become essential to enhance the state’s position in the region and the international arena. In this case, ecopolitics becomes practical tools used by political decision-makers to create an image of a modern state whose economy is innovative and whose society is aware of the benefits resulting from the implementation of ecological solutions. Nevertheless, there is a close correlation between religious and political circumstances (functioning of authoritarian regimes) and low effectiveness of environmental movements and groups.
Topic:: Environment, Islam, Politics, Ecology, and Muslims
Political Geography:: Middle East

3011. Brazil-China Relations Under Lula and Bolsonaro: Rapprochement and Distancing Through Discourse

Author:: Paulo Afonso Brardo Duarte and Lucas Braga Dutra
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: This article aims to provide a comparative analysis of Sino-Brazilian relations from the Brazilian perspective during the presidencies of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Jair Messias Bolsonaro. This analysis is based on the examination of speeches made by both presidents during their respective terms. Drawing on the French tradition of Discourse Analysis, the study seeks to comprehend how the two presidents behaved in the context of the Brazil-China relationship throughout their respective terms. This study is based on the hypothesis that there was a desire to bring the relationship between the two countries closer during Lula's administration and an attempt to distance it, at least in President Bolsonaro's informal speeches, which was not, however, corroborated by his formal speeches.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Jair Bolsonaro, Discourse, and Lula da Silva
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Brazil, and South America

3012. Balancing Borders: Trade, Security, and Migration in US-Mexico Relations Today

Author:: Diane E. Davis, Jorge Capetillo-Ponce, José Ignacio Hernández, Silvia Nuñez Garcia, and Chappell Lawson
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: Balancing Borders: Trade, Security, and Migration in US-Mexico Relations Today: Thursday, October 9, 2025 A conversation on the challenges and opportunities at the intersection of trade, security, and migration. This conference is co-sponsored by MIT-Mexico, UNAM Boston and UMass Boston, and brought together scholars, policymakers, and practitioners to explore the evolving dynamics of the U.S.–Mexico relationship. Speakers: Diane E. Davis is the Charles Dyer Norton Professor of Regional Planning and Urbanism at Harvard’s Graduate School of Design (GSD) and Domain Head of the Publics Track in the Master of Design Studies Program. Trained as a sociologist, Davis’s research interests include urban governance, urban social movements, the politics of planning, and conflict in cities. Her books include Cities and Sovereignty: Identity Conflicts in the Urban Realm (Indiana University Press, 2011); Discipline and Development: Middle Classes and Prosperity in East Asia and Latin America (Cambridge University Press, 2004); Irregular Armed Forces and their Role in Politics and State Formation (Cambridge University Press, 2003); and Urban Leviathan: Mexico City in the Twentieth Century (Temple University Press 1994; Spanish translation 1999). Jorge Capetillo-Ponce is currently Associate Professor of Sociology and Latino Studies at University of Massachusetts Boston. From 2016 to 2022 he was editor of the Sociology of the Caribbean section for the Library of Congress. He also taught courses and gave lectures from 2002-2021 in the culture program at the Boston Graduate School of Psychoanalysis. Before he joined the faculty of Sociology at UMASS Boston in 2002, Professor Capetillo-Ponce worked as Executive Director of the Mexican Cultural Institute in New York City (2000-2001) as advisor to the Dean of the Graduate Faculty at The New School (1996-2000), and as consultant to Latino/a grassroots organizations in New York City (2000-2002) and Boston (2002-present). José Ignacio Hernández (Caracas, 1974), has a Law Degree from the Universidad Central de Venezuela, with a summa cum laude diploma (1997); an Advanced Study Certificate from the Universidad Complutense de Madrid (2001) and a Juris Doctor from the Universidad Complutense with a summa cum laude diploma (2002). He is Professor of Administrative Law at the Universidad Central de Venezuela and the Universidad Católica Andrés Bello, both in Venezuela. He also teaches Economic Constitutional Law in the Universidad Católica Andrés Bello. He has been professor of regulatory framework at the Instituto de Estudios Superiores de Administración (IESA), also in Venezuela. He is the Director of the Law Review of the Law Faculty of the Universidad Católica Andrés Bello. He has written more than 100 academic articles published in Venezuela, Colombia, Argentine, Chile, Mexico, US, Italy, Poland and Spain. He also has written 14 books. Silvia Nuñez Garcia is a researcher at Center for Research on North America, from Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, where she was director between 2009 and 2017. She also had the responsibility of directing the UNAM office in Los Angeles, California during 2021 and 2022. In 2019, the Government of Canada, through its Embassy in Mexico, awarded her the 'Canada-Mexico 75' recognition for her contribution to strengthening academic ties between the two nations. Throughout her career, she has been a visiting scholar at the Center for Latin American and Caribbean Studies at Michigan State University and other prestigious institutions such as Georgetown University and Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India. Likewise, she was distinguished as a Fellow of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars of the United States in 1999. Moderator: Chappell Lawson is an Associate Professor of Political Science at MIT. Professor Lawson's recent work has focused on homeland security policy, Mexican politics, the effect of candidates' physical appearance on their electoral success, and political leadership. From September 2009 through February 2011, Professor Lawson was on leave from MIT as a political appointee in the Obama Administration, serving as Executive Director and Senior Advisor to the Commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection. Before joining the MIT faculty, he served briefly as a Director of Inter-American Affairs on the National Security Council staff during the Clinton Administration.
Topic:: Security, Migration, Bilateral Relations, Borders, and Trade
Political Geography:: Latin America, North America, Mexico, and United States of America

3013. Brazil-China Relations: A Three-Decade Analysis of Knowledge Diplomacy (1994–2024)

Author:: Rodrigo Franklin Frogeri, Francisco Jose Leandro, and Yichao Li
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: China’s rise has influenced global affairs, including its relations with Brazil. This study explores knowledge diplomacy - academic collaborations forming innovation networks that complement traditional state diplomacy. Marking 30 years of strategic partnership (1993-2023) and 50 years of Sino-Brazilian diplomatic relations (1974-2024), the research poses and addresses the following question: “To what extent does knowledge diplomacy manifest in Brazil–China bilateral relations?”. Using a systematic literature review and social network analysis, the findings indicate that knowledge diplomacy between Brazil and China remains in its nascent stages. Only three initiatives related to the co-production of scientific knowledge were identified, involving a total of six researchers from both countries. Despite the comprehensiveness of the analysis, the results reveal that state-level, proactive engagement between higher education institutions in Brazil and China has remained superficial throughout the three decades under examination.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Soft Power, Higher Education, Social Networks, Network Analysis, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Brazil, and South America

3014. Open-access Challenging Dollar Dominance? How Brazil Responds to RMB Internationalization

Author:: Thaís Araripe, Luiza Peruffo, and Andre Moreira Cunha
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: This article explores the role of China’s currency, the renminbi (RMB), in Brazil, analyzing how the country positions itself in the shift toward alternative currencies to the U.S. dollar amidst changing global monetary power. It addresses three key questions: How widely is the RMB used in Brazil’s economy? What institutional measures support RMB adoption in Brazil? And what are the implications of this engagement for Brazil’s role in the international monetary and financial system? Findings indicate a modest but growing RMB integration in Brazil. Rather than embarking on a de-dollarization process, Brazil appears to be employing an incremental approach – one that leverages selective institutional measures to diversify its financial risks while preserving its strategic ties with the dominant global currency.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Developing World, Economy, Currency, Internationalization, De-Dollarization, International Monetary and Financial System, and Economic Sovereignty
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Brazil, and South America

3015. Between distrust and strategic opportunity: Chinese scholars discuss the U.S. impact in Sino-Latin American relations

Author:: Antonio José Pagán Sánchez
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: This study examines how academic publications in China have interpreted the U.S. impact on Sino-Latin American relations between 2009 and 2024. This period encompasses three different U.S. presidents: Barack Obama, Donald Trump (first presidency), and Joe Biden. The findings indicate that, strikingly, distrust toward the U.S. was already present well before U.S.-China tensions erupted during Trump’s presidency, and that publications consulted perceived this administration as a strategic opportunity for China to expand its presence in the region. Under Biden, distrust toward the United States remained, and his presidency was not seen as much of a strategic opportunity. The study also highlights the consistent recommendation among Chinese scholars for Beijing to adopt a conciliatory approach toward Washington.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Academia, Donald Trump, Rivalry, and Monroe Doctrine
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Latin America

3016. Too Big to Dock: Brazil-China Iron Trade and the Valemax Vessels Crisis

Author:: Victor Thives
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: This article analyzes the Valemax crisis to explore how regulatory barriers and domestic interests shape trade. When the Valemax, vessels owned by Brazil’s giant mining company Vale, were barred from Chinese ports, allegedly due to safety concerns, a diplomatic and commercial impasse emerged. Drawing on the Bureaucratic Politics Model, the study shows how Brazilian state agencies coordinated to defend Vale’s interests, while China protected its shipping sector. The eventual resolution, by transferring ship ownership to Chinese State Owned Enterprises (SOEs), illustrates how foreign firms must adapt to China’s political economy. The case highlights the influence of large companies on foreign policy and the complexities of commercial diplomacy in asymmetric economic relationships.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Regulation, Economy, Trade, Bureaucracy, and State-Owned Enterprises
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Brazil, and South America

3017. The Third World Imperative: How Brazil-China Relations Emerge from the Aftershock of Richard Nixon’s Latin American Foreign Policy

Author:: Pablo Muñoz
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: This article analyzes the emergence of Brazil-China relations in the context of Richard Nixon’s foreign policy toward Latin America. It examines how American perceptions of Brazil as a potential competitor, and the geopolitical economic maneuvers of the Nixon administration influenced Brazil’s foreign policy decisions. The article highlights Brazil’s growing nationalism and its engagement with the Third World, including economic interactions with the Soviet Union and the eventual establishment of relations with mainland China. Ultimately, it argues that U.S. foreign policy played a significant role in shaping Brazil’s understanding of its Third World imperative, paving the way for closer relations with China that continue to this day.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Nationalism, Third World, and Dictatorship
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Brazil, South America, North America, and United States of America

3018. Defining the Belt and Road: How Ideas and Interests Shaped Argentina’s Approach to the Initiative

Author:: Zara C. Albright
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: How do ideas and identities affect how countries evaluate joining China’s Belt and Road Initiative? This article employs process tracing to analyze Argentina’s negotiations prior to its accession in February 2022. Argentina is a crucial case to explain because both the Macri and Fernández governments faced similar material benefits of infrastructure finance. However, the Macri government defined the BRI as a form of alignment with China, while the Fernández government interpreted it as South-South cooperation and autonomy from Western-led financial institutions. These findings show that developing countries evaluate both the material and symbolic costs and benefits of the BRI.
Topic:: International Relations, Finance, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Development Finance
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Argentina, and South America

3019. Understanding Different Perspectives on International Relations in MENA (Session 1)

Author:: Peter Krause
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: Understanding Different Perspectives on International Relations in MENA: U.S. Foreign Policy under Trump An online mini course for the MIT community with Peter Krause (PhD '11). Krause is an associate professor of political science at Boston College and a research affiliate with the MIT Security Studies Program. This webinar is hosted by the MIT-MENA program at the MIT Center for International Studies. About the speaker: Peter Krause is an associate professor of political science at Boston College. His research and teaching focus on international security, Middle East politics, terrorism and political violence, nationalism, and rebels and revolution. He currently teaches courses on Middle East politics, terrorism and political violence, research methods, and international relations. He is a faculty associate in the International Studies Program and the Islamic Civilization and Societies Program at Boston College, as well as a research affiliate with the MIT Security Studies Program.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East, North America, and United States of America

3020. Balancing the Grid and the Good: Ethically Navigating Nigeria's Energy Transition

Author:: Sicile Naddeo-Gjergji, Humnah Poonawalla, and Amrita Sahu
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:: This brief examines Nigeria as a critical case for the global energy transition. As one of Africa’s largest fossil-fuel producers and most rapidly growing economies, Nigeria must reconcile the need to expand reliable energy access with the moral imperative to decarbonize. The authors propose pathways for equitable grid modernization, off- grid innovation, and international partnership.
Topic:: Climate Change, Ethics, Fossil Fuels, Decarbonization, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

3021. Fault, Responsibility, and Justice: Ethical Solutions to Economic Losses in the Energy Transition

Author:: Preston Ferraiuolo, Mikhail Perminov, Kate Voltz, and Joyce Yang
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:: The final brief widens the lens on climate policy by examining the ethical obligations owed to workers and communities disproportionately harmed by decarbonization. Drawing on distributive, recognition, and procedural justice, the authors develop a roadmap for equitable climate action that strengthens democratic legitimacy rather than eroding it.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Democracy, Ethics, Legitimacy, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3022. The Ethics of Externalization in the United Kingdom and Denmark

Author:: Cooper Austen, Noah Eshaghpour-Silberman, Aidan Gouley, and Alexa Marsh
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:: Focusing on the UK’s Rwanda plan and Denmark’s extra-territorial processing legislation, this brief examines whether externalizing asylum procedures can ever meet ethical and legal standards. It introduces the “Ethical Ability to Accept” test as a tool for evaluating state capacity, human rights protections, and integration prospects in receiving countries.
Topic:: Human Rights, Ethics, Migration Policy, Asylum Seekers, and Externalization
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, Denmark, and Rwanda

3023. Fairness and Safety for Asylum Seekers: Assessing the “Remain in Mexico” (MPP) Policy

Author:: Harrison Fintz, Abigail Leibowitz, and Ila Prabhuram
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:: This brief evaluates the MPP program through an ethical lens emphasizing safety, fairness, due process, and burden sharing. It proposes concrete reforms for any future iteration: enforcement guidelines, safety reporting, expedited processing, legal support, and cross-border cooperation.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Borders, Immigration Policy, and Asylum Seekers
Political Geography:: South America, North America, Mexico, and United States of America

3024. Beyond Its Wildest Dreams: Israel’s Campaign for Geo-Strategic Dominance in the Middle East

Author:: Richard Silverstein
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Not since the Roman conquest of the Middle East has any power imposed itself so thoroughly through military dominance as Israel has in the past three years. It has, during that period, achieved sweeping regional hegemony over virtually all of its neighbors. This is the realization of a decades-old objective Israeli leaders have long coveted, but never dared imagine. Even amidst multi-state wars with its Arab frontline neighbors in 1956 and 1973, it only sought limited objectives (the 1948 and 1967 wars may be seen as exceptions). After multiple attacks over the past year on Iran and its regional Axis of Resistance, Israel has in effect redrawn the geo-strategic map. When Syrian rebels toppled Bashar al Assad and cut off Iranian weapons transshipments to Hezbollah, Israel exploited this opportunity to degrade the latter through repeated attacks against it. First, it severely wounded thousands of Hezbollah’s fighters through pager mass explosions. Then it wiped out its long-time leader and an icon of resistance, Hassan Nasrallah, along with his named successor and others in senior leadership. More recently, it invaded Lebanon and now occupies a considerable portion of the south. In addition, the IDF has eradicated many of the villages and destroyed much of the civilian infrastructure there, rendering it virtually uninhabitable. Hezbollah seems, at least for the time being, to be a spent force. Unlike Israel’s past invasions of Lebanon and its 20-year (1982-2002) occupation of Hezbollah’s southern strongholds, which were met with fierce resistance, its more recent incursion has generated little conflict.
Topic:: Hezbollah, Israel Defense Forces (IDF), Armed Conflict, Strategic Interests, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Lebanon

3025. Israel and Iran: Major Threats to Middle East Stability

Author:: Erwin van Veen
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: For years, Iran has been accused of being the primary source of instability in the Middle East by much of the West, Israel, and a number of Arab states. One point of conflagration is that it maintains a network of armed groups across the region (the “Axis of Resistance”) which it deploys to attack other states in the area, such as Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia. The second is that it continues to develop an increasingly sophisticated ballistic missile arsenal, which was brought to bear against the Kurdish areas of Iraq, Pakistan and Israel earlier this year. Iran is also criticized for supporting the regime of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad (until December 2024). Furthermore, Western and Arab countries believe that Iran has violated article III of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) by enriching uranium beyond the 20% threshold for civilian use. However, perceptions of Tehran as the main agent of regional instability have shifted in the Middle East and beyond during the past 22 months. A growing number of experts and organizations say Israel is committing more and more war crimes in Gaza, including genocide, and launching an unprecedented series of military campaigns.
Topic:: International Law, Armed Conflict, and Regional Stability
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Israel

3026. Caught in the Crossfire: Jordan’s Balancing Act in the Iran-Israel Conflict

Author:: Francesca Maria Lorenzini and Kourosh Ziabari
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Jordan’s defensive action to intercept Iran’s retaliatory drones and missiles, slashing through its skies in mid-June, has drawn both approval and criticism, underscoring the kingdom’s struggles to balance strategic alliances with public opinion.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Public Opinion, Drones, Alliance, Armed Conflict, and Strategic Alliances
Political Geography:: Iran, Israel, Palestine, and Jordan

3027. Journalism in Peril: The Gaza Genocide as a Global Test of Press Freedom

Author:: Mohamed Salama, Shahira S. Fahmy, Mona Rafaat Alsaba, and Saif Shahin
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: In Gaza, it isn’t only civilians that are being laid to ruin; the freedom to tell the story of its people is being muzzled by successive Israeli strikes targeting and killing Palestinian journalists
Topic:: Genocide, Journalism, Civilians, Armed Conflict, and Freedom of Press
Political Geography:: Middle East, Palestine, and Gaza

3028. What Palestinian Statehood Must Mean to Mean Anything

Author:: Omar Auf
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: As more governments prepare to recognize Palestine this September, the gesture risks being performative unless matched with concrete policies such as sanctions and legal obligations, and a decolonial vision of statehood that challenges occupation at its roots
Topic:: Sanctions, Decolonization, Statehood, Palestinians, and Recognition
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

3029. Confederative Futures and the Burden of Leadership in Israel/Palestine

Author:: Klara Vlahčević Lisinski
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The pathway to recognition of Palestinian Statehood does not require the world’s approval through the raising of 192 flags; rather, it requires convincing “one state only—the state of Israel”
Topic:: Leadership, Occupation, Statehood, and Confederalism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

3030. Israel is Erasing Palestine and the West is Complicit

Author:: Nour Odeh
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The genocide unfolding in the Gaza Strip has allowed Israel to speed up its takeover and ethnic cleansing of the occupied West Bank in stealth mode
Topic:: Genocide, Ethnic Cleansing, Settlements, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and West Bank

3031. The Double Genocide in Gaza

Author:: Gregory H. Stanton
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Israel’s disproportionate response to Hamas’ October 7, 2023 massacre includes genocide against Palestinians in Gaza.
Topic:: Genocide, Armed Conflict, Palestinians, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

3032. Kuwait Country Report 2024

Author:: Arab Barometer
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Arab Barometer
Abstract:: Since the last Arab Barometer survey in Kuwait, conducted in 2022, major changes have taken place, significantly affecting political stability in the country. While political life in Kuwait was saturated with crises, and its indicators were clearly visible in the dissolution of the National Assembly (Parliament) repeatedly before completing its term, the shifts, changes, and political instability that dominated the public arena, between late 2022 and the current period of 2024, included even more severe events. Kuwait faced the unconstitutional dissolution of the National Assembly and the suspension of some articles in the constitution, now for the third time in Kuwait’s history. The first two such crises were in 1967 and 1986. To summarize the events that took place from June 2022 until the dissolution of the Parliament and the suspension of the constitution in May 2024, they are as follows: On August 3, 2022, the National Assembly was dissolved constitutionally, in response to the sit-in of a number of MPs inside the Parliament and their overnight stay there. The Crown Prince (the current Emir) gave a speech in which he emphasized adherence to the constitution, and also presented initiatives in electoral reform. He emphasized that the government would not vote for the candidate for the speaker of the National Assembly, and that the elections would be through the national ID card (effectively changing electoral circuits). The protesting MPs considered these reforms a victory. As a result, Ahmed al-Nawaf was appointed Prime Minister
Topic:: Corruption, Education, Environment, Gender Issues, Health, Migration, Governance, Democracy, Economy, Discrimination, Institutions, Labor Market, Freedom, and Political System
Political Geography:: Middle East and Kuwait

3033. ASEAN’S Digital Future: Strengthening Malaysia’s Leadership in Submarine Cable Governance and IMO Advocacy

Author:: Raaga Manjari Annathurai
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Maritime Institute of Malaysia
Abstract:: As Malaysia assumes the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) chairmanship in 2025, its leadership comes at a crucial time when digital infrastructure and connectivity are more critical than ever. This coincides with Malaysia’s role in the International Maritime Organization (IMO) Council for the 2024–2025 term, reinforcing its commitment to maritime and digital governance on both regional and global scales. Among the many priorities under Malaysia’s chairmanship, ensuring the resilience, security, and efficient governance of submarine cables is paramount. These cables serve as the Critical Information Infrastructure (CNI) of international telecommunications, driving economic growth, digital transformation, and cross-border connectivity. Malaysia’s strategic geographical position in the region and robust regulatory framework place it in a pivotal role in spearheading efforts to enhance ASEAN’s submarine cable governance and regional connectivity. As home to some of the busiest submarine cable routes in the world, these undersea communication networks in the region play a crucial role in enabling seamless internet access, financial transactions, and cloud computing services. As digitalisation accelerates across the region, the demand for robust and well-protected submarine cable systems continues to rise. However, regulatory inconsistencies, environmental risks, and geopolitical tensions pose significant threats to the uninterrupted functioning of these cables. Malaysia, as the ASEAN 2025 chair, is uniquely positioned to lead regional efforts to address these challenges and establish a more harmonised regulatory framework.
Topic:: Communications, Governance, ASEAN, and Submarine Cable
Political Geography:: Malaysia and Asia

3034. Political System Preference in the Middle East & North Africa (2023-2024)

Author:: Michael Robbins
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Arab Barometer
Abstract:: Ultimately, these findings reveal a region that is still searching for the best system of governance. Citizens want dignity, but years of non-democratic rule have, in much of the region, not led to this outcome. Yet, the limited democratic experiments, as democracy is defined in the technical sense, have also not produced desired outcomes.
Topic:: Governance, Democracy, Survey, and Political System
Political Geography:: Middle East and North Africa

3035. Democracy in the Middle East & North Africa 2023-2024

Author:: Michael Robbins
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Arab Barometer
Abstract:: Findings from Arab Barometer Wave VIII surveys make clear that while citizens across the region have come to realize democracy does not represent a panacea for all their country’s problems, they remain most supportive of it compared with other political systems.
Topic:: Politics, Public Opinion, Democracy, Citizenship, and Survey
Political Geography:: Middle East and North Africa

3036. "Reciprocal" tariffs: What are they really for?

Author:: Robert Z. Lawrence
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: This Policy Brief evaluates the evolving reasons for and application of the Trump administration’s “reciprocal” tariffs and finds them wanting. The tariffs, adjusted most recently on August 1, 2025, were originally supposed to achieve reciprocity between the United States and its trading partners but were based on a defective measure because bilateral imbalances do not necessarily indicate unfair foreign trade practices; the methodology used to estimate the reciprocal tariffs was biased towards overstatement, particularly for countries producing primary commodities, which will have high pass-through into US final prices, and for countries exporting products with high import content. Given these defects, the reciprocal tariffs are better seen as a dressed-up anchoring ploy to strengthen America’s hand in negotiations rather than credible estimates of the unfair trade practices that the United States faces. Moreover, even if reduced to 15 percent, the application of these tariffs to America’s poorest trading partners would do little to reduce the overall US trade deficit but considerably harm their economic development.
Topic:: Tariffs, Economic Development, Protectionism, and Trade Deficit
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

3037. Does a weak social safety net hold back private consumption in China?

Author:: Nicholas R. Lardy
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: Many experts see China’s economy as constrained because of a weak social safety net, especially the retirement system, resulting in anemic domestic consumption spending. This view is out of date. Recent data indicate that China has expanded many parts of its social safety net and that consumption spending has accelerated. Social expenditures in China have more than doubled as a share of GDP since 2010 and are on par with Mexico and Turkey. But given China’s aging population, safety net spending and domestic consumption spending will need to expand further to put China’s economy on a more sustainable path. The latest data should clear the cobwebs of misunderstanding that have led to both complacency and unnecessary alarm about China’s economic prospects among observers in the United States and other countries. China’s government is hardly unaware of the importance of stronger household consumption and has announced policies to increase consumer spending, including more generous pension benefits for farmers and rural migrant workers. If these initiatives are implemented, the growth of household consumption is likely to accelerate.
Topic:: Government, Economic Growth, Safety Net, and Consumer Behavior
Political Geography:: China and Asia

3038. Social protection for Mozambique’s elderly: History, structure, and potential effectiveness

Author:: Sara Almeida, Hanna Berkel, Sam Jones, Patricia Justino, and Telça Massingue
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This study assesses the effectiveness of Mozambique's flagship social pension programme, the elderly component of the Programa de Subsídio Social Básico (PSSB). Focusing on three key criteria— programme targeting, reliability, and materiality—we combine administrative data on the universe of beneficiaries with the complete records of the 2017 Population and Housing Census. Merging these datasets at the localidade level, we provide a highly granular view of programme coverage rates and payment delivery regularity. We estimate that in the best case with zero targeting errors, the PSSB-Elderly programme reaches two-thirds of its target group. However, significant regional disparities persist, including undercoverage in poorer regions. Additionally, we document substantial delays in payments since 2023, as well as various inaccuracies in the beneficiary registry. These findings underscore the importance of simple and robust designs for social protection in resource-constrained contexts. They also suggest that expanding programme coverage towards a quasi-universal subsidy in high-poverty locations merits serious consideration.
Topic:: Poverty, Pension, Coverage Gaps, Payment Delays, and Program Targetng
Political Geography:: Africa and Mozambique

3039. American Public Attitudes on U.S. Foreign Policy in Northeast Asia and on the Korean Peninsula, 2025

Author:: Je Heon (James) Kim
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: This year’s KEI/YouGov survey comes at a moment of profound uncertainty in U.S. foreign policy. The Donald Trump administration has unsettled established trade arrangements, raised questions about the durability of U.S. alliance commitments, and injected unpredictability into U.S. engagement with long-standing partners like South Korea. Against this backdrop, American public opinion provides a clearer sense of continuity. The survey reveals enduring support for South Korea as a partner, stable recognition of the alliance’s value, and consistent preference for more open trade, investment, and cultural exchange, even as geopolitical turbulence and partisan divides complicate policymaking. Yet there are signs that American public opinion may be undergoing a transition in how Americans view other countries suggesting possible shifts in global alignments. Finally, within this evolving perception, the type of state appears to matter: Americans tend to weigh national security, trade, and investment differently depending on whether a country is viewed as an ally, partner, competitor, or adversary.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Trade, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North America, Northeast Asia, and United States of America

3040. Is inequality always unfair? Experimental evidence on preferences for redistribution in Mozambique and Viet Nam

Author:: Ines A. Ferreira, Rachel M. Gisselquist, and Finn Tarp
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Knowledge of the factors driving people’s views on redistribution in the Global South remains limited. While these societies occupy top positions in inequality rankings, redistribution levels tend to be lower. We combine survey and experimental data from Mozambique and Viet Nam to test whether redistributive preferences vary depending on the source of inequality, focusing on two channels, fairness views and communication. First, we confirm the finding that inequality resulting from differences in merit is more accepted than inequality due to luck or factors outside of individual control. We also observe heterogeneity in fairness views. Second, we extend the analysis to consider whether allowing for communication between a receiver, who can suggest a distribution, and a dictator, who makes the final decision, affects redistribution preferences. We find that the relevance of the source of inequality remains. However, whether the expectation of the receiver is met by the dictator varies across samples and depends on the source of inequality. Overall, our results provide important insights into the universality of fairness views and point to the need for more analysis across contexts with different institutional and economic backgrounds.
Topic:: Inequality, Global Focus, Redistribution, and Fairness
Political Geography:: Africa, Asia, Mozambique, and Viet Nam

3041. America’s Nuclear Red Line: Trust in Alliances, Not Proliferation

Author:: Yujin Son
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: On many foreign policy questions, American voters are sharply divided. But on nuclear weapons, a bipartisan consensus still holds. New polling by the Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI) and YouGov shows broad public opposition to letting allies such as South Korea develop nuclear weapons, even as risks from North Korea, Russia, and other countries mount. In short, U.S. voters demonstrate a durable belief that extended deterrence and U.S. alliances remain the most effective tools for safeguarding international security. The survey shows only 20 percent of Americans support South Korea developing its own nuclear weapons. Other long-standing U.S. allies fare only slightly better, with just 24 percent supporting nuclear development for Australia and Japan. In every case, opposition to allied nuclear proliferation far outweighs support. The data shows that most Americans support alliances, not additional bombs.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Alliance, Tariffs, Trade, and Survey
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

3042. Securing data in the AI supply chain

Author:: Justin Sherman
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Underpinning AI technologies is a complex supply chain—organizations, people, activities, information, and resources that enable AI research, development, deployment, and more. The AI supply chain includes human talent, compute, and institutional and individual stakeholders. This report focuses on another element of the AI supply chain: data. While a diversity of data types, structures, sources, and use cases exist in the AI supply chain, policymakers can easily fall into the trap of focusing on one AI data component at one moment (e.g., training data circa 2017), then switching focus to another AI data component next (e.g., model weights in current times), risking a lopsided policy that fails to take account of all the AI data components that are important for AI research and development (R&D). For example, overconfidence about which data element or attribute will most drive AI R&D can lead researchers and policymakers to skip past important, open questions (e.g., what factors might matter, in what combinations, and to what end), wrongly treating them as resolved. Put simply, a “one-size-fits-all” approach to AI-related data runs the risk of creating a regulatory, technological, or governance framework that overfocuses on one element of the data in the AI supply chain while leaving other critical parts and questions unaddressed. Managing the risks to the data components of the AI supply chain—from errors to data leakage to intentional model exploitation and theft—will require a set of different, tailored approaches aimed at achieving a comprehensive reduction in risk. As conceptualized in this report, the data in the AI supply chain includes the data describing an AI model’s properties and behavior, as well as the data associated with building and using a model. It also includes AI models themselves and the different digital systems that facilitate the movement of data into and out of models. The report, therefore, spells out a framework to visualize the seven data components in the AI supply chain: training data, testing data, models (themselves), model architectures, model weights, Application Programming Interfaces (APIs), and Software Development Kits (SDKs). It then uses the framework to map data components of the AI supply chain to three different ways that policymakers, technologists, and other stakeholders can potentially think about data risk: data at rest vs. in motion vs. in processing (focus on a data component within the supply chain and its current state); threat actor risk (focus on threat actors and risks to a data component within the supply chain); and supply chain due diligence and risk management (focus on a data component supplier or source within the supply chain and related actors). In doing so, it finds that many risks to AI-related data are risks to data writ large that existing best practices could mitigate. These include National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) and International Organization for Standardization (ISO) specified data access controls, continuous monitoring systems, and robust encryption; the risks at hand in these cases do not require reinventing the wheel. Simultaneously, this report also finds that some security risks to AI data components do not map well to existing security best practices that would adequately mitigate the risk or even apply at all. At least two stand out immediately: bad actors’ attempts to poison AI training data require data filtering mechanisms not well captured by existing measures, and which access controls or encryption would not appropriately mitigate; and emerging, malicious efforts to insert so-called neural backdoors into the behavior of neural networks require new security protections, too, beyond the realm of traditional IT data security. On top of implementing these two categories of mitigations, this report emphasizes that organizations can leverage “know your supplier” best practices to ensure all other entities in their AI supply chains have security best practices for both non-AI-specific and AI-specific data risks.
Topic:: Cybersecurity, Artificial Intelligence, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3043. Exploring the global digital ID landscape

Author:: Coley Felt and Will LaRivee
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: In an increasingly digital world, digital identity systems represent a fundamental transformation in how personal information is authenticated and managed, shifting from traditional physical identification methods to electronic credentials that enable access to digital services across government and private-sector platforms. These systems utilize authenticated credentials that verify individual qualifications and personal information to establish trusted digital documentation, spanning use cases from health certificates to mobile identification for travel security and banking verification. The worldwide adoption of digital identity systems varies significantly across regions and implementation approaches. Estonia’s comprehensive e-ID system, mandatory for all residents, demonstrates transformative societal impact by connecting organizations through distributed databases and blockchain technology. India’s Aadhaar program serves a massive population, proving that large-scale digital identity systems can operate in developing countries while bringing previously undocumented populations into formal economic systems, albeit not without criticism. The European Union’s eIDAS framework mandates that all member states offer digital identity wallets to citizens and businesses, creating interoperability across member states. The African Union has faced infrastructure and data protection challenges, while the United States remains fragmented with individual states implementing mobile driver’s licenses without federal coordination. Digital identity systems offer a breadth of benefits including enhanced convenience, improved access for underserved populations, stronger privacy protections through data minimization principles, and significant cost savings for organizations. These systems hold tremendous potential to transform the delivery of government services and industry interactions, though there are potential risks and limitations to be considered.
Topic:: Human Rights, Science and Technology, European Union, Innovation, Digital Policy, and Digital ID
Political Geography:: Africa, North America, and United States of America

3044. Addressing China’s military expansion in West Africa and beyond

Author:: Tressa Guenov
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The next National Defense Strategy (NDS) is being drafted at a critical moment when the United States risks permanently ceding strategic influence to China in Africa—especially West Africa—without a reimagined approach to the continent. With lifesaving foreign assistance drastically reduced due to the current administration’s budget cuts to the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and State Department programs, along with uncertain economic effects from tariffs, the United States has voluntarily weakened its diplomatic and economic tools to influence and support Africa. This reality gives additional weight to the importance of defense diplomacy and military cooperation as critical means by which the United States can exercise strategic influence in the region. While the US administration may be looking to narrow the United States’ role on the continent, Africa is too vast, important, and complex to attempt bilateral defense diplomacy, military-to-military relations, and counterterrorism efforts on the cheap, by proxy, or from afar. Key issues for the Department of Defense (DoD) include acknowledging the looming strategic dilemma posed by China’s increased influence in Africa; developing a cohesive and responsive strategy to counter that influence; managing bilateral defense relationships; and addressing other regional priorities such as Russia’s growing influence and counterterrorism issues, which also have inextricable connections to China. The new NDS needs to lay a foundation to address these challenges. The alternative is over-regionalization of the China challenge to the Indo-Pacific, which could impose short-sighted limitations that will affect the US role in Africa for years to come.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Politics, and Resilience
Political Geography:: Africa, China, and Asia

3045. Chinese fishing in West Africa: Responding to the environmental and social impacts

Author:: Ebimboere Seiyafa, Awa Niang Fall, Ellis Adjei Adams, Kadidia Kane, Isa Elegbebe Olalekan, Kodjo N'Souvi, and Salamatu Joana Tannor
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Chinese companies—including both state-backed firms and private actors—have rapidly expanded into West Africa’s fishing sector, often operating illegally in prohibited coastal waters. Chinese vessels employ bottom trawling and other destructive methods, which—combined with limited oversight and poor enforcement of national and transboundary laws—have caused declining fish stocks, weakened local fishery economies, and deteriorated coastal water quality. This brief examines the ecological and social risks posed by Chinese fishing in West Africa and offers policy recommendations to strengthen legal protections and enhance regional cooperation to safeguard the region’s fisheries and water systems.
Topic:: Climate Change, Corruption, Environment, Politics, Fishing, and Energy
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Asia, and West Africa

3046. Two US policy options for Venezuela: Shaping reform vs. ‘maximum pressure’ toward regime collapse

Author:: Venezuela Solutions Group
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The first Trump administration drafted a framework for encouraging a democratic transition in Venezuela; with a few updates, it represents one policy path the second Trump administration could take. Nicolas Maduro’s recent promotion of a longtime rival may be a sign of how few friends he has left, raising the possibility that he may be more susceptible to the second option: a “maximum pressure” campaign. Whether Washington opts for incentives or a hard line, the goal should be to keep presenting dilemmas that make a democratic transition more appealing than the status quo.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Oil, Politics, Sanctions, Reform, Geopolitics, Energy, and Democratic Transitions
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, Venezuela, North America, and United States of America

3047. How the US and Europe can deter and respond to Russia’s chemical, biological, and nuclear threats

Author:: Philippe Dickinson, Ryan Arick, and Natasha Lander Finch
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: This report presents the findings and recommendations of the Atlantic Council project, Sustaining Allied Responses to the Threat of Russian Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) Escalation. The objective of the project was to analyze the prospects for Russian use of chemical or biological weapons specifically in Europe over the next five to ten years; identify how the United States and its European allies and partners could deter and prevent Russian use of these weapons in Europe; and, should deterrence fail, assess response options.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, National Security, Conflict, Crisis Management, Deterrence, Biological Weapons, Nuclear Weapons, and Chemical Weapons
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and United States of America

3048. Responsible stewardship models can transform Africa’s mineral wealth into prosperity

Author:: Mamadou Fall Kane
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: As the global race for minerals critical to green energy tech heats up, African nations should manage their mineral revenues with sovereign wealth funds applying best practices from funds like Norway’s and Saudi Arabia’s. Well-structured, credible sovereign wealth funds would lower risk, attract liquid capital markets, and facilitate strategic alliances for African nations. By aligning resource wealth management with domestic industrial policy, African countries can move beyond extraction and play a greater role in global supply chains.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Economy, Economic Growth, Renewable Energy, Economic Inclusion, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:: Africa

3049. Homeland defense in an era of new strategic threats

Author:: Clementine G. Starling-Daniels and Amy Cowley
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Threats to the US homeland have fundamentally changed from two decades ago. In the years following 9/11, the most pressing dangers came from terrorist groups intent on carrying out attacks on US soil. Today’s threat landscape is broader, more complex, and more difficult to predict. Peer-state competitors, transnational criminal organizations, and non-state actors now possess the means to target the US homeland through a range of kinetic and non-kinetic capabilities—including long-range missiles, cyberattacks, sabotage, disinformation, and malign foreign influence. Responding to these evolving threats—designed to disrupt critical infrastructure, weaken public trust, and undermine the ability of the United States to project power abroad— requires a comprehensive approach to homeland defense that extends beyond border security. But how should the United States chart this new course, and what must it entail? The forthcoming National Defense Strategy (NDS), published by the Department of Defense (DoD), offers a critical opportunity to lay the groundwork for the next step in strengthening homeland defense. Meeting this challenge requires a focus not only on large-scale air and missile defense and border security but also on the protection of critical defense systems—such as space infrastructure—from cyberattacks and coercive economic activities. The success of these efforts may well determine whether the United States can stay one step ahead of those seeking to do it harm.
Topic:: Defense Policy, National Security, Science and Technology, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

3050. The UAE’s Foreign Policy Anchors and Their Influence on Israel and the Region

Author:: Moran Zaga
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: This policy paper explores the fast-moving expansion of the UAE’s influence in the Middle East through physical control of territories and assets beyond its borders, analysing the implications for Israel, in particular, and for the regional balance of power as a whole. The paper begins by outlining a conceptual policy framework of so-called “anchors” and “grips” with unique characteristics. It then presents a focused empirical review of the infrastructure, assets, territories and other types of physical property the UAE has acquired to implement its policy in four key arenas: Egypt, Jordan, Israel and the Gaza Strip. The paper then analyzes the regional implications of this process and its specific effects on Israel including its relations with the Palestinians and concludes by proposing guiding principles to address this trend. Scholars and decision makers will find the paper relevant to political and strategic planning for Israel’s regional engagement, particularly concerning Jordan, Egypt, and the Gaza Strip. The importance of the process the paper describes lies in the scope and speed with which this transformative phenomenon is spreading and changing the regional dynamics. This shift disrupts the traditional division between bilateral and regional relations, necessitating a reassessment of how Israel manages its relationships – both with the UAE as an investor and with the neighbouring countries in which it chooses to invest.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Investment, Abraham Accords, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United Arab Emirates

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS