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501. Between backyards and nakamals: Shifting Australia–Vanuatu relations

Author:
Anna Naupa
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Australia’s strategic anxiety and narrative emphasis on security “threats” in the Pacific Islands region have increasingly dominated bilateral affairs in the past decade. This has progressively reconfigured its valued development cooperation and risks a neglect of historical and contemporary reciprocal relations, which in turn can undermine diplomatic trust-building. Deeper Pacific literacy — particularly through a whole-of-government Australian investment in strategic empathy — can meaningfully contribute to more enduring and resilient diplomatic relations with a key Australian neighbour: Vanuatu. The anticipated Nakamal Agreement with Vanuatu offers opportunities for Australia to “think outside the box” in its statecraft, with broader lessons for regional relations. Leaning into an inclusive conceptualisation of the Vanuatu nakamal way — through joint crafting of a more comprehensive engagement model — will better enable the two countries to create a transformational economic partnership that responds to Vanuatu’s most pressing climate and development concerns, while alleviating Australia’s strategic anxiety.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Australia, Australia/Pacific, and Vanuatu

502. The Impacts of Parole Supervision

Author:
Luke Brinkman, Andrew Jordan, and Derek Neal
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
In 2021, Illinois passed the Safety, Accountability, Fairness and Equity-Today Act, commonly known as the SAFE‑T Act. This legislation received significant national attention because it ended cash bail in Illinois and included numerous reforms to the supervision of prisoners upon their release. In Illinois, most exiting prisoners serve a period of mandatory supervised release (MSR), which is similar to parole supervision in other states. The original SAFE‑T Act modified MSR terms for many parolees, and Illinois amended the law on December 6, 2022, creating a natural policy experiment. During the six months preceding this date, the state assigned a large group of released prisoners to one year of supervision. This group contained prisoners sentenced for both serious offenses (Classes 1 and 2) and lesser offenses (Classes 3 and 4). However, starting on January 1, 2023, the state assigned released prisoners in Classes 3 and 4 to six months of MSR.
Topic:
Crime, Law Enforcement, Incarceration, and Parole
Political Geography:
North America, Illinois, and United States of America

503. Immigration Restrictions and Natives’ Intergenerational Mobility: Evidence from the 1920s US Quota Acts

Author:
James Feigenbaum, Yi-Ju Hung, Marco Tabellini, and Monia Tomasella
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Immigration policy has emerged as a focal point of political debate in many advanced economies. Proposals to curtail immigration are frequently justified on economic grounds. Some argue that immigrants increase competition in local labor markets, depress wages for native workers, and strain public resources. Research has increasingly sought to evaluate the consequences of immigration restrictions on economic growth, employment, and wages. While these studies have deepened our understanding of the shorter-run effects of immigration policy on labor markets, we know less about its implications for future generations of native-born workers. This question is especially important because immigration restrictions often persist for decades once enacted.
Topic:
Economy, Immigration Policy, Social Mobility, and Quota
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

504. Mainstreamed but sidelined: Global funding for gender equality

Author:
Grace Stanhope
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Basic rights and wellbeing outcomes for women and girls globally are regressing or stalling. Cuts to foreign aid and a growing hostility towards gender equality programs risk eroding hard-won gains and turning the trend into a crisis. Rising international aid for gender equality has disguised a stagnation of targeted funding for core issues such as healthcare, education, physical safety, and legal rights. This funding gap is widest in conflict zones and disaster-affected areas, where women and girls are often the most at risk and the least supported. The most effective solution is to “upstream” gender equality aid directly into international development funding of core sectors, rather than treating it as an add-on. Anchoring this approach with a clear funding commitment would help protect these programs and deliver better outcomes for the world’s most vulnerable women and girls.
Topic:
Foreign Aid, Sustainable Development Goals, Gender, Gender Equality, and Gender Mainstreaming
Political Geography:
Global Focus

505. Low Earth Orbit satellites: Closing the Indo-Pacific digital divide

Author:
Hilman Palaon
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Low Earth Orbit satellite technology can help close Indo-Pacific connectivity gaps, but prohibitive costs mean the technology’s value lies in applications that target remote communities, disaster resilience, and high-value niche uses. Supportive regional policies will be crucial to bridging the digital divide. These policies should focus on subsidies, community gateways, and universal service obligations, as well as complementary investments in digital literacy, device access, reliable electricity, and locally relevant content. Governance is key, including to manage the strategic risks posed by competing providers, ensure balanced regulation, utilise regional approaches where possible, address emerging risks, pilot potentially high-impact use cases, and leverage international financial support.
Topic:
Development, Science and Technology, Governance, and Satellites
Political Geography:
Indo-Pacific

506. The Macroeconomic Effects of Tariffs: Insights from 180 Years of US Trade Policy

Author:
Tamar den Besten, Diego R. Känzig, Régis Barnichon, and Aayush Singh
Publication Date:
07-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The sharp increase in US tariff rates in 2025 has renewed interest in the macroeconomic effects of tariffs. Yet surprisingly little evidence exists on this topic. Most studies rely on post–World War II data—a period with relatively modest movements in average tariff rates—and focus on narrow outcomes, such as relative price changes, industry-level effects, or bilateral trade flows. Consequently, the aggregate effects of tariffs on output, prices, and trade are less well understood.
Topic:
Economy, Tariffs, Macroeconomics, Trade Policy, and Industry
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

507. Industrial Activity, State Capacity, and Deforestation: Evidence from Brazil

Author:
Daniel Da Mata, Mario Dotta, and Edson R. Severnini
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Most developing countries struggle with limited state capacity, which hinders their ability to enforce laws and provide public goods. This limitation affects many aspects of governance, including environmental regulation, and can lead to increased deforestation and land degradation. However, policies that outsource state functions to market players—when public and private incentives are aligned—may partially address these challenges by harnessing the private sector’s reach and efficiency.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, Deforestation, Livestock, and State Capacity
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

508. The Incidence of Tariffs: Rates and Reality

Author:
Gita Gopinath and Brent Neiman
Publication Date:
07-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Statutory tariff rates on US imports recently reached levels not seen in more than 100 years. By the end of 2025, the average statutory rate (weighted by the volume of trade subject to each rate) was 26 percent. Imports from 171 countries, accounting for more than 70 percent of all US imports, faced higher tariffs than at the end of 2024.
Topic:
Economy, Tariffs, Manufacturing, Trade, and Consumer Behavior
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

509. Closing the Gaps in Environmental Crime: A Risk-Based Approach to Tackling Money Laundering in the Timber Supply Chain

Author:
Igarapé Institute
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Igarapé Institute
Abstract:
Deforestation in the Amazon is at a decisive moment. In Brazil alone, 91% of the deforestation recorded between 2023 and 2024 occurred without authorization. The continuation of this process brings the forest closer to a point of no return, with irreversible impacts on climate regulation, the hydrological cycle, biodiversity, and the socioeconomic stability of the region. Despite the magnitude of the crisis, environmental crime still does not occupy a central position in the agenda to combat organized crime, even though it is a large-scale illicit activity enabled by the commission of related crimes such as corruption, document fraud, false statements, and money laundering. The timber sector clearly illustrates this dynamic. Illegal extraction does not occur outside the productive system, but rather through it. Forest management plans are manipulated, authorizations are granted under conflicts of interest, documents are falsified, and illegally extracted timber is inserted into the formal market as if it were a legitimate product. The concealment of the illicit origin of environmental assets constitutes, in practice, a process of laundering. However, the absence of specific typologies and indicators creates a regulatory gap that allows illicit revenues to be integrated into the formal market and the financial system with a low level of detection. In response to this gap, the Igarapé Institute developed this study to strengthen the anti-money laundering system through the creation of techniques aimed at identifying risks of fraud, corruption, and money laundering in the timber sector. The proposed methodologies include indicators organized into three categories: (i) identification of conflicts of interest between public officials and companies in the timber sector; (ii) detection of risks associated with fraud and corruption in the approval of forest management plans; and (iii) analysis of risks linked to the extraction and processing of illegal timber. To test the applicability of these techniques, the Igarapé Institute conducted a pilot study in the state of Pará, which resulted in the identification of 125 public officials, 204 technical professionals responsible for signing forest management plans, 877 individuals, and 116 entities holding exploitation rights over the area, as well as 341 timber processing units with indications of high risk. The exercise demonstrates that it is possible to adapt the anti-money laundering system to the specificities of environmental crime and expand its capacity for prevention and detection.
Topic:
Corruption, Governance, Supply Chains, Deforestation, Money Laundering, Enforcement, Logging, Environmental Crime, and Forest Management
Political Geography:
South America and Amazon

510. After the compromise: Australia’s COP31 blueprint for the Pacific

Author:
Melanie Pill, Georgia Hammersley, and Alexandre Dayant
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Australia’s COP31 compromise with Türkiye, which allows Antalya to host this year’s global climate summit, secures Canberra’s control of official negotiations but weakens its influence over the wider summit, where practical decisions are made. The Pacific-hosted pre-COP is a critical opportunity to build political momentum ahead of COP31 by convening selected global leaders and placing Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in a visible leadership role to secure high-profile support for Pacific climate priorities. Australia can still deliver meaningful outcomes for the Pacific by aligning regional priorities with those of other climate-vulnerable countries, exercising ambitious leadership through the President of Negotiations, and redirecting hosting-related resources towards climate action in the region.
Topic:
Climate Change, Diplomacy, and Conference of the Parties (COP)
Political Geography:
Australia, Pacific Islands, Turkey, and Global Focus

511. The ungoverned sky: Drones and the domestic extremist threat

Author:
James Paterson and Lydia Khalil
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Domestic extremist actors are incorporating drone technology into operational capabilities and attack plots, taking inspiration from the battlefield. The number of violent plots utilising drones has increased sharply over the past five years. Domestic counter-drone frameworks are mismatched to the threat. Effective protection requires layered, multi-system approaches across potential civilian targets and critical infrastructure. Easy-to-access technologies, such as 3D printing, open-source design files, additive hardware, and AI-assisted navigation are lowering the barriers to modifying and weaponising drones.
Topic:
Security, Violent Extremism, Weapons, Drones, Artificial Intelligence, and 3D Printing
Political Geography:
Global Focus

512. The global sovereign citizen movement

Author:
Lydia Khalil and Keiran Hardy
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The sovereign citizen movement has spread from the United States to more than 26 countries globally. Covid restrictions and digital networks accelerated its growth and created dangerous intersections with other conspiracy movements. The sovereign citizen movement has grown beyond a nuisance, escalating into a national security challenge for many countries around the world. The transnational threat of the movement requires multilateral intelligence coordination, online interventions to counter influencers, narratives, and networks, and globally informed threat assessments.
Topic:
Intelligence, National Security, Social Media, Conspiracy Theory, Political Extremism, and Sovereign Citizens
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

513. From Narco Cartels to Criminal Networks: The Structural Transformation of Organized Crime in Latin America and the Caribbean

Author:
Igarapé Institute
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Igarapé Institute
Abstract:
atin America and the Caribbean’s major criminal groups can no longer be understood simply as regional drug trafficking organizations moving cocaine through global markets. That image belongs to an earlier phase. Today, several of these organizations exercise territorial authority, generate revenue from both licit and illicit economies, and shape political life from the ground up. Across the region, they are expanding into strategic sectors, exploiting regulatory weaknesses, and transforming new financial technologies into instruments of concealment and control. The criminal landscape of Latin America and the Caribbean has entered a more complex and dangerous phase. Cocaine production has reached record levels, and Mexican, Brazilian, Colombian, and Ecuadorian criminal organizations have become deeply embedded in global logistics networks, including major European ports such as Antwerp, Hamburg, Le Havre, Rotterdam, and Valencia. Their resilience no longer depends on violence alone. It rests on the protective systems they build around themselves, the revenue streams they control, and the local authority they accumulate where the state is predatory, selective, or absent. This is as much a governance problem as it is a security problem. Criminal groups are not simply attacking the state from the outside. In many places, they operate through the everyday machinery of public authority, turning institutional weaknesses into strategic advantages and public office into a source of protection. This constitutes a core element of criminal governance, enabling criminal organizations to absorb law-enforcement pressure, recover from territorial losses, and survive the removal or replacement of their leaders. In this article, we identify six major transformations. First, the Covid-19 pandemic disrupted criminal supply chains in the short term but deepened poverty, weakened state capacity, and expanded informal economies in ways that accelerated criminal expansion once restrictions were lifted. Second, criminal groups diversified their revenue streams across an increasingly wide range of sectors and supply chains. Third, criminal logistics became globalized. Fourth, state responses across the region increasingly favored militarized emergency models capable of reducing visible violence in the short term while leaving criminal finance, corruption, and illicit governance structures largely intact. Fifth, organized crime’s corrosive effect on democratic institutions intensified through the capture of electoral, judicial, municipal, and security institutions. Sixth, a tougher U.S. security posture reshaped the hemisphere through terrorist designations, lethal maritime strikes, coercive diplomacy, deeper operational partnerships, and pressure on governments viewed as insufficiently aligned with Washington’s counter-narcotics and migration-control priorities.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Governance, Organized Crime, Cartels, Illicit Financial Flows, Drug Trafficking, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Latin America and Caribbean

514. The geopolitics of critical minerals and implications for Brazil and Canada

Author:
Igarapé Institute
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Igarapé Institute
Abstract:
Critical minerals have moved from the margins of industrial policy to the center of geopolitical competition. Cobalt, copper, lithium, nickel, graphite, and rare earths now underpin three strategic imperatives: energy transition, digital infrastructure, and defense readiness. As rivalry between the United States and China intensifies, and as China leverages its dominance in processing, governments are reshaping supply chains through new alliances and targeted policy interventions. Brazil and Canada are central to this emerging mineral order. Both countries combine strong geological endowments with institutional capacity and diplomatic reach. Canada brings diversified extraction, growing midstream ambitions, and a coordinated policy approach reinforced during its 2025 G7 presidency. Brazil brings vast reserves and a more assertive industrial strategy aimed at moving up the value chain and reducing reliance on raw material exports. Yet both face the same structural challenge: transforming resource abundance into lasting economic and geopolitical influence. China’s dominance in processing reflects decades of accumulated technological capability, specialized expertise, and industrial learning—not simply subsidies. Closing this gap requires sustained investment in midstream capacity, particularly in refining, chemical conversion, and skilled labor. This article examines the forces shaping the global minerals landscape, including demand dynamics, supply chain vulnerabilities, and the evolving toolkit of geoeconomic competition. It analyzes how major powers are structuring alliances and how Brazil and Canada are positioning themselves within this shifting architecture—both individually and as potential partners. It concludes by outlining pathways for bilateral and regional cooperation, from building a Canada-Brazil midstream corridor and aligning standards to investing in human capital and strengthening regional infrastructure. The window for action is narrowing: as the institutional framework of mineral security takes shape, countries that move early and strategically will help define the rules of the system rather than adapt to them.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, Geopolitics, Lithium, Supply Chains, Rare earth elements (REEs), Energy Transition, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:
Canada, Brazil, and South America

515. Between Borders and States: Illegal Mining and Mercury Trafficking in the Amazon

Author:
Igarapé Institute
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Igarapé Institute
Abstract:
The Amazon is facing a growing set of pressures shaped by the convergence of accelerated environmental degradation, the expansion of illicit economies, and the fragility of state presence. In this context, illegal gold mining and mercury trafficking occupy a central position, both because of the environmental and public health impacts they produce and because of the way they connect the Amazon rainforest to transnational chains of trade, finance, and logistics. The dynamics sustaining this mechanism, however, do not originate in the forest. Mercury, an essential input for gold amalgamation, enters the region through opaque channels, while the extracted gold enters formal circuits of trade, often far from the territories where socio-environmental impacts are concentrated. Although Amazonian borders are often portrayed as obstacles to addressing these illicit activities, a closer analysis offers insights into the governmental actions and institutional limitations that shape the effectiveness and continuity of the Amazonian countries’ responses over time. It is from this perspective that this study is developed. The research examines how mercury trafficking and illegal gold mining are subject to different forms of state intervention — criminal, administrative, regulatory, and territorial — and how these interventions combine, overlap, or become misaligned when illicit dynamics cross national borders. The study is based on two case studies that illustrate, from different perspectives, the challenges of confronting illegal gold mining and mercury trafficking at the Amazonian border regions. The first focuses on the structure and operation of corporate networks involved in the mercury trade. The second examines the institutional architecture centered on the judiciary and state bodies tasked with protecting Indigenous peoples living in voluntary isolation threatened by illegal mining. Finally, the study presents conclusions aimed at strengthening institutional responses to illegal mining and the input trafficking in the Amazon, with emphasis on both coordination among national bodies and regional cooperation.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Governance, Trafficking, Mining, Indigenous, Illicit Financial Flows, Environmental Crime, and Mercury
Political Geography:
South America and Amazon

516. Justice Denied, Silence Maintained: Women's Voices from the Margins of South Africa's Justice System

Author:
Lindokuhle Malambe
Publication Date:
07-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:
This research amplifies the lived experiences of women survivors of gender-based violence as they navigate South Africa's criminal justice system. Drawing on qualitative research conducted across diverse communities, the report examines the systemic barriers that prevent women from accessing justice, including institutional failures, secondary victimisation, delayed investigations, and inadequate survivor-centred services. ' The findings highlight the gap between progressive legal and policy frameworks and women's everyday experiences of seeking justice. The report concludes with evidence-based recommendations to strengthen accountability, improve survivor-centred responses, and advance a more accessible, responsive, and equitable justice system for all women.
Topic:
Women, Gender Based Violence, Criminal Justice, and Accountability
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

517. Gender Gaps in Academic Careers Evidence from Economics in Argentina

Author:
María Edo, Mariana Marchionni, Maria Florencia Pinto, and Mariana Viollaz
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This paper provides the first comprehensive analysis of gender disparities in academic economics in Argentina, and one of the few systematic studies on this topic in developing countries. Using newly collected and harmonized data from administrative records, university sources, web scraping, and ad-hoc surveys, we document women’s representation across stages of economics education and academic careers. We identify a leaky pipeline: a small gender gap at the undergraduate level widens in later stages, including research activity, faculty positions, publications, rankings, and leadership roles. Exploring potential drivers—such as academic performance, aspirations, exposure to role models, coauthorship, networking, funding, service—we find that women and men exhibit similar performance and comparable aspirations to pursue academic careers, yet their trajectories diverge. Although descriptive, our results suggest that gender disparities are unlikely to reflect differences in ability or preferences, and instead arise from a complex interaction of structural conditions and individual choices.
Topic:
Economics, Developing World, Inequality, Academia, and Gender
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

518. Labor market impacts of an internship program on people with disabilities

Author:
Inés Berniell, Lucila Berniell, Victoria Castillo, Belén Cañuelo, and Dolores de la Mata
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of an internship program in Argentina (Programa Primer Paso) on the formal employment trajectories of People with Disabilities (PwD). Using administrative data from 2002–2023 and a staggered differencein-differences design, we estimate that program participation persistently increases formal employment and improves employment stability over time. On average, the probability of being formally employed rises by about 8 percentage points within three years after treatment, with the effect growing over time. The program also increases sustained employment—measured as at least six or twelve months of formal work per year—as well as the total number of months in formal jobs. Importantly, about three-quarters of the observed employment gains arise from jobs at firms other than the initial internship host, indicating broader integration into the formal labor market rather than the formalization of pre-existing ties. These results are robust to alternative specifications and pre-trend tests. The effects are larger for individuals residing in the capital city and for those placed in medium- and large-sized firms, while they are smaller for individuals with mental disabilities. No clear differences are found by age or gender. From the perspective of participating firms, we find no evidence of changes in their hiring behavior toward PwD after hosting a PPP intern with a disability. These findings suggest that internship programs can be an effective tool to reduce labor market gaps for people with disabilities in developing countries, with patterns consistent with the alleviation of informational frictions, the raising of expectations about employment prospects, and the acquisition of transferable skills.
Topic:
Employment, Disability, Labor Market, and Internships
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

519. Intergenerational Mobility and Populist Attitudes in Latin America

Author:
Bautista Santamarina, Matias Ciaschi, and Mariana Marchionni
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This paper examines the relationship between intergenerational educational mobility and populist attitudes in Latin America, a region characterized by low levels of intergenerational mobility and a long-standing presence of populist leadership. In contexts where social origin strongly predicts individual outcomes, perceptions of unfairness may create fertile ground for populist narratives. Using harmonized microdata from 18 waves of the Latinobarómetro survey covering individuals born between 1940 and 2000, we document a robust negative association between intergenerational mobility and populist attitudes across multiple indicators, including anti-democratic attitudes, support for military governments, anti-immigrant sentiments, and institutional distrust. These results hold when using a relative mobility measure that captures pure positional change net of structural trends, and at the cohort level when exploiting standard mobility measures from the literature. Cohort-level estimates further reveal that the effect of persistence is amplified in high-inequality contexts, suggesting that immobility and contemporaneous inequality act as complements in shaping political discontent. Decomposing inequality into opportunity and effort components, we find evidence suggesting that populist attitudes are mostly driven by inequalities of opportunity. These findings suggest that the persistent emergence of populist leadership in Latin America is linked to the region’s stubbornly low intergenerational mobility and unequal access to opportunities.
Topic:
Democracy, Populism, Social Mobility, and Intergenerational
Political Geography:
Latin America

520. Soft-skills Training, Locus of Control, and Labor Market Outcomes of Youth: Evidence from Kenya

Author:
Kibrom A. Abay, María Laura Alzua, Nelima Barasa, Phyllis Mumia Machio, and Martin Paul Jr. Tabe-Ojong
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
We evaluate the impact of a gender-sensitive soft-skills training that aimed to address youths’ labor market constraints in technical and vocational education and training (TVET) institutions in Kenya using a clustered randomized controlled trial. We also explore whether the presence (or absence) of complementary noncognitive skills, such as locus-of-control, moderates the impact of soft-skills training. Our evaluation combines baseline, midline, and endline data to understand the dynamics of labor market transitions for the youth. Although we find suggestive evidence that the soft-skills training marginally contributed to preparing the youth for the labor market by improving their willingness, expectations, and preparedness for jobs, the impact of the soft-skills training on ultimate labor market outcomes appears negligible. However, the effect of soft-skills training varies across individuals with varying personality traits. Soft-skills training improved labor market outcomes for those with internal locus of control, implying important heterogeneity across individuals with varying non-cognitive skills.
Topic:
Youth, Labor Market, and Soft Skills
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

521. Occupational Mobility and Green Transition: A Stylized Estimation of Skill Investment Needs in South Asia

Author:
Andres Ham, Emmanuel Vazquez, Monica Yanez-Pagans, Camilla Knudsen, and Saher Asad
Publication Date:
07-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This paper estimates the share of green employment in seven South Asian countries using an O*NET-based definition and finds that, on average, 24 percent of jobs in the region are currently green. The paper then assesses the potential for non-green workers to transition into green occupations. Among all non-green workers, 57 percent could transition to green jobs with limited reskilling, 16 percent with moderate upskilling, and 27 percent with full skills reconversion. These results suggest three policy priorities—promoting on-the-job training, strengthening firm-based and public–private training systems, and adopting a dual strategy that invests in reskilling and upskilling today’s workforce while simultaneously advancing forward-looking education reforms that equip future cohorts for new and emerging green occupations.
Topic:
Climate Change, Labor Market, Skills, Green Transition, Green Jobs, and Occupational Mobility
Political Geography:
South Asia

522. Asymmetric Adaptation to Heat and Energy Poverty

Author:
Adriana Camacho, Leonardo Gasparini, Luis Laguinge, Jorge Puig, and Hernan Winkler
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
We study the responses of household electricity consumption to temperature changes, focusing on asymmetries between welfare deciles. Our analysis exploits a unique panel dataset for Peru that links household survey microdata with repeated administrative records on energy use and local temperature. Using fixed-effects models, we estimate how electricity consumption varies with temperature, highlighting the unequal capacity of households across income deciles to adapt to climate change. Based on this evidence, we propose and implement a novel measure of adaptive energy poverty, which captures households’ ability to respond to rising ambient temperatures through increased electricity consumption.
Topic:
Electricity, Temperature, and Energy Poverty
Political Geography:
South America and Peru

523. Safeguarding or Sidestepping? The Centre-Right, the Minimum Wage, and Collective Bargaining Autonomy in the German and Italian Low-Wage Sectors

Author:
Joshua Cova and Matteo Marenco
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
Opposition to statutory minimum wages by right-of-centre parties has typically been framed around employment externalities. Yet in Germany before the adoption of a statutory minimum wage, and in Italy today, right-of-centre parties have often invoked a different rationale: defending collective bargaining autonomy against state interference. In this paper, we investigate how centre-right parties in both countries have engaged with collective bargaining while each facing a specific scenario: declining coverage in Germany, and weakened representativeness in Italy. Examining recent policy proposals such as linking public procurement to collective bargaining agreements or regulating union representativeness, we find that these measures were largely opposed by the centre-right. A quantitative text analysis of parliamentary debates further reveals a strategic use of collective bargaining discussions by centre-right parties: In Germany, salience peaked before the statutory minimum wage was introduced but fell sharply thereafter, while collective bargaining gained prominence discursively for the Italian centre-right only in conjunction with the minimum wage debate. Complemented by stakeholder interviews and electoral data analysis, our findings suggest that this trend reflects ideological as well as electoral dynamics, as centre-right parties draw on significant support from small business owners in sectors with weak collective bargaining. Appeals to bargaining autonomy thus function less as substantive commitments than as instruments to preserve the status quo in the low-wage sector.
Topic:
Political Parties, Minimum Wage, Collective Bargaining, and Safeguarding
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, and Italy

524. Data Challenges and Innovations in Measuring Domestic Violence in Latin America and the Caribbean: Traditional Sources and Online Search Patterns

Author:
Inés Berniell, Gabriel Facchini, and Santiago M. Perez-Vincent
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This study examines the challenges of analyzing domestic violence (DV) in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and seeks to improve measurement through two main contributions. First, we collect and describe traditional DV data sources (household surveys and administrative records) across 19 countries. The analysis reveals substantial gaps in data availability, with infrequent and outdated survey efforts in most countries. Nevertheless, surveys confirm high DV prevalence, with at least one in five women reporting victimization in all countries examined, and highlight pervasive underreporting that limits the reliability of administrative crime data. Second, we examine the properties of a novel, high-frequency indicator based on online search behavior: the Google Domestic Violence Index. Using administrative data from eight LAC countries, we find that the index is strongly correlated with calls to DV helplines but shows weaker association with police reports or emergency calls. The evidence suggests that the index captures early-stage, information-seeking behavior and may provide a real-time signal of latent victimization not reflected in official statistics. Our findings underscore the potential of digital data to complement traditional sources and to support more timely, responsive approaches to tracking DV.
Topic:
Internet, Data, Domestic Violence, and Google
Political Geography:
Latin America and Caribbean

525. Marriage as Insurance: Household Responses to Immigration Policy Uncertainty

Author:
Cristian Bonavida
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This paper examines whether marriage serves as a strategic response to immigration policy uncertainty. We study transitions into marriage among cohabiting binational couples—defined as unions between a U.S. citizen and a noncitizen partner—following the shift in immigration policy expectations during the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign and the subsequent tightening of enforcement in 2017. Using ACS data from 2008 to 2019 and a difference-in-differences design, we compare marriage transitions among binational couples to those of homogeneous citizen couples. Immigration policy uncertainty increased marriage rates among binational couples by approximately 1.5–1.8 percentage points, or about 8-10 percent relative to pre-treatment levels. Event-study estimates show no differential pre-trends and indicate that the response began in 2016, prior to the formal reinstatement of Secure Communities. The effect is concentrated among likely unauthorized immigrants and individuals from targeted nationalities. The findings suggest that marriage functioned as a form of legal and economic insurance in response to heightened deportation risk.
Topic:
Economics, Marriage, Household, and Immigration Policy
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

526. Status of Environmental Justice in Karamoja and West Nile Sub-Regions in Uganda

Author:
Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:
This report presents a comprehensive assessment of the status of environmental justice in Uganda, with a particular focus on the Karamoja and West Nile regions. These two regions, though distinct in ecological and socio-economic characteristics, are united by their position which is at the frontline of environmental change, governance challenges, and livelihood vulnerability. Karamoja is characterized by semi-arid landscapes and pastoral livelihoods, faces intensifying pressures from climate variability, land degradation, and expanding extractive and conservation activities. West Nile, by contrast, represents a complex humanitarian–ecological interface shaped by one of the largest refugee-hosting contexts in Africa. West Nile is where population influxes are placing unprecedented strain on land, forests, and water resources. These two regions provide a critical lens through which to understand how environmental governance systems shape outcomes like equity, inclusion, and sustainability in Uganda.
Topic:
Climate Change, Governance, Sustainability, Ecology, and Environmental Justice
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

527. Understanding Latin America’s Fertility Decline: Age, Education, and Cohort Dynamics

Author:
Milagros Onofri, Inés Berniell, Raquel Fernandez, and Azul Menduiña
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This paper examines the sharp decline in fertility across Latin America using both period and cohort measures. Combining Vital Statistics, Census microdata, and UN population data, we decompose changes in fertility by age, education, and joint age–education groups. We show that the decline in period fertility between 2000 and 2022 is driven primarily by reductions in within-group birth rates rather than by changes in population composition, with the largest contributions coming from younger and less-educated women. Comparing the cohort born in the mid 1950s and the one born in the mid 1970s, we find that the decline in completed fertility reflects not only delayed childbearing but also substantial reductions in the average number of children per woman. This is driven primarily by lower fertility among mothers rather than by rising childlessness. Our findings provide new evidence on the nature of Latin America’s transition to below-replacement fertility and highlight several open questions for future research.
Topic:
Demographics, Education, Fertility, and Age
Political Geography:
Latin America

528. Moral and Legitimate? Historical, Legal, and Affective Issues Around Educational Privatization in Germany

Author:
Karen Lillie and Luisa Hideg
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
Germany’s education system is in the midst of privatization. Although this trend, which started in the 1980s, ostensibly parallels neoliberal education reforms across Europe and the Anglophone world, Germany’s case is a special one. Privatization in the country is happening within a historical and legal context that favors public schooling; however, families increasingly exercise school choice to select “the best” for their children. The tension between historically and legally informed norms, on the one hand, and affective desires, on the other, is morally problematic for parents navigating between what is generally accepted as good for society and what they believe is good for an individual. At stake in this struggle is whether school choice becomes a “legitimate” part of the German education system, in a Bourdieusian sense. If it does, it risks strengthening social class closure mechanisms and heightening resultant social class anxiety.
Topic:
Education, Privatization, History, Law, Reform, and Class
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

529. A Practical Guide to LinkedIn Advertising Reach Data for Social Science: Methods, Challenges, and Five Applications

Author:
Saila Naomi Stausholm and Javier Garcia-Bernardo
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
LinkedIn data offers a unique way to study how professional groups and organizations underpin economic and political life. This paper shows how LinkedIn’s advertising reach data, which provides anonymized counts of users by job title, skills, employer, and location, can be used to study organizational and professional dynamics relevant to a wide range of issues in political economy and economic sociology. We showcase the potential through five illustrative cases: 1) the revolving doors between Wall Street and US financial regulators; 2) the geography of professionals such as accountants and bankers; 3) the professional composition of interdisciplinary firms such as antitrust consulting firms; 4) recruitment by different industries and specifically big professional services firms in the face of new regulatory demands for sustainability reporting; and 5) the emergence of a profession of cyber security professionals over time. Alongside these examples, we provide a step-by-step guide for implementing the method in practice and discuss how linking professional attributes with geographical or organizational characteristics can provide new answers to various research questions. We hope this paper serves as a helpful practical guide as well as inspiration for new research questions.
Topic:
Data, Advertising, Social Science, Professionals, and LinkedIn
Political Geography:
Global Focus

530. Defending before the International Criminal Court: An Interview with Mylène Dimitri

Author:
Mylène Dmitri, Cailan Cumming, Kate Gibson, and Paul Williams
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
This blog is part of the Defending Justice series, an initiative of the Public International Law and Policy Group (PILPG) to promote an eclectic array of voices within the field of international criminal law. As part of our broader efforts to strengthen institutions of justice, this series seeks to create space for dialogue around the varied perspectives and concerns that shape these institutions. With that aim in mind, we interviewed a series of defense practitioners working in international criminal law and distilled their experiences and insights into a series of first-person blogs, preserving the spirit and voice of those interviews.
Topic:
International Law, Interview, and International Criminal Court (ICC)
Political Geography:
Global Focus

531. Why Russia’s Aggression Against Ukraine Cannot Be Cured by a Vote: A Legal and Historical Reality Check

Author:
Greta Ramelli, Kateryna Kyrychenko, David Griffiths, Clyde Freeman, Anastasia Zaluckyj, Dmyro Panchenko, and Rahul Ramesh
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
A persistent assumption in some policy debates is that concessions of territories under Russia’s occupation will offer a pathway to ending Russia’s war against Ukraine. The Trump administration has repeatedly supported this thesis. While European officials have generally been more cautious, the possibility of territorial compromise has nevertheless entered public debate, including in Ukraine. Ukrainian officials have, however, distinguished between acknowledging the difficulty of restoring control by force in the near term and legally recognizing Russia’s claims over occupied territory. Yet, this argument rests on a critical assumption that ceding territories would be sufficient to stop Russia’s aggression. This premise is far from settled. Analysts have repeatedly noted that Russia’s war aims extend well beyond Donbas, Crimea, or the mere acquisition of territory. The conduct of the war, characterized by war crimes and crimes against humanity, including systematic attacks on civilian infrastructure, forced deportations, and efforts to erase Ukrainian cultural identity, raises serious doubts about whether any concession, large or small, would meaningfully alter Russia’s strategic objectives. The trajectory of the war suggests the opposite: that Russia’s war is more than just an attempt to gain strategic territories and that ceding some territories is unlikely to bring peace. Even if it is doubtful that territorial concessions would meaningfully alter the course of Russia’s campaign, it is still necessary to examine all potential scenarios that could influence how the war might eventually conclude. Considering these possibilities does not suggest that concessions are advisable or likely to succeed; it just reflects the need to understand the full range of legal, historical, and practical constraints that would shape any hypothetical settlement. Assuming (purely for the sake of analysis) that territorial concessions could form part of a hypothetical negotiation, far more difficult questions immediately arise: how would such concessions be made? What legal mechanisms would be required? What constraints would international law impose? What limits does Ukrainian constitutional law create? And what can be learned from past conflicts in which referenda, territorial claims, or post‑conflict votes were used or proposed? These questions are not abstract. They go to the heart of whether territorial concessions are legally possible and historically realistic, even before one considers whether they are politically desirable. This blog post therefore examines the legal architecture, domestic constitutional constraints, and historical precedents that shape what is and is not possible.
Topic:
International Law, History, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

532. Roundtable Blog: Four Years Since Russia’s Full-Scale Invasion Into Ukraine: What Have We Learned?

Author:
Public International Law Policy Group
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
This blogpost is part of the PILPG Lawyering Peace roundtable series. Rather than a traditional co-authored article, it presents a curated set of expert reflections from members of PILPG’s Peace Fellows and Ambassador Circle networks. Marking four years since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, this roundtable examines how the war has reshaped international law, global security architecture, accountability mechanisms, and our understanding of modern aggression. Anniversaries invite commemoration. This roundtable instead invites assessment. Four years on, the international community possesses insights that were unavailable in the early days of the invasion. The war has tested the resilience of collective defense systems, exposed the limitations and adaptability of international institutions, accelerated transformations in military technology and information warfare, and catalyzed new approaches to sanctions, energy security, and legal accountability. It has also revealed both the extraordinary durability of Ukrainian statehood and the profound human costs of prolonged high-intensity conflict. This collection seeks to move beyond retrospective narrative toward forward-looking analysis. What assumptions proved mistaken? What institutional innovations have emerged? How has the legal framework governing aggression and atrocity crimes evolved under pressure? What lessons should policymakers internalize to deter future wars of aggression? By elevating diverse expert perspectives across disciplines, this roundtable aims to distill the most consequential lessons of the past four years — and to consider how they should inform the future of peacebuilding, deterrence, and the international legal order.
Topic:
Security, International Law, Accountability, Armed Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and Invasion
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

533. PILPG Roundtable Blog: Creating the Conditions for Peace in 2026 - Expert Perspectives on Ukraine’s Strategic Position and Negotiations

Author:
Public International Law Policy Group
Publication Date:
07-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
More than four years after Russia’s full-scale invasion, the debate over Ukraine’s path to a just and durable peace has entered a new phase. Recent developments on the battlefield, renewed diplomatic contacts, and shifts in international support have prompted fresh discussion about Ukraine’s strategic position and the conditions under which negotiations could contribute to a lasting settlement. To continue this conversation, PILPG invited members of its Ukraine Peace Negotiations Working Group, former senior diplomats, ambassadors, international prosecutors, and leading experts in international law, peace negotiations, and security to share their views on three questions: How should Ukraine’s current strategic position be assessed? When, if at all, should negotiations become a priority? And what should Ukraine’s international partners do now to maximize the prospects for a just and durable peace? While the experts approached these questions from different professional backgrounds, several points of agreement stood out. They broadly agreed that Ukraine’s position is stronger than battlefield maps alone suggest, that negotiations should not come at the expense of continued support, and that lasting peace will require careful preparation long before any final agreement is reached.
Topic:
International Law, Negotiation, Peace, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

534. Extraordinary Accession: Why Europe Must Bring Ukraine into the European Union Now

Author:
David M. Crane
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
Europe stands at a geopolitical crossroads. Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine has shattered the illusion that the post-Cold War order could be preserved through incrementalism, dialogue, or strategic ambiguity. Moscow is betting quite openly that Europe will hesitate, delay, and ultimately retreat from the historic question of Ukraine’s membership in the European Union. The Kremlin’s strategic calculation is simple: Europe will not bring Ukraine into the EU in the short or medium term, regardless of political declarations or symbolic gestures such as the Foreign Ministers’ meeting in Kyiv in March 2026. This policy paper argues the opposite. Europe must bring Ukraine into the European Union now - not as a conventional accession, not as a “fast track,” but as an extraordinary accession that recognizes the singular nature of Ukraine’s struggle and the existential stakes for Europe itself. Political membership should be granted immediately, with the technical and treaty-based obligations phased in over time. This is not only feasible; it is strategically necessary. Ukraine’s accession would send an unmistakable signal to Russia and the international community: Ukraine is Europe - permanently, irreversibly, and without qualification.
Topic:
International Law, European Union, Geopolitics, Russia-Ukraine War, and Enlargement
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

535. PILPG Roundtable Blog Part I: Ukraine’s EU Accession: Perspectives of Enlargement During the War

Author:
Public International Law Policy Group
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
This roundtable explores one of the most consequential strategic questions facing Europe today: Ukraine’s accession to the European Union amid an ongoing war of aggression. Building on discussions within the Public International Law & Policy Group (PILPG) Ukraine Peace Negotiations Working Group, this piece brings together expert perspectives on how enlargement policy is being reshaped by geopolitics, security imperatives, and the pursuit of a just and durable peace. Presented under the Lawyering Peace initiative, this roundtable situates EU accession not merely as a technical legal process, but as a defining test of Europe’s political will and strategic identity. As Ukraine continues to defend itself, its European trajectory has become inseparable from broader questions of deterrence, stability, and the future of the European project itself. On 10 April 2026, members of PILPG’s Ukraine Peace Negotiations Working Group convened to assess the evolving trajectory of Ukraine’s EU accession process. More than a decade after the Maidan protests set Ukraine on its European path, accession now unfolds under radically different conditions: amid full-scale war, shifting transatlantic dynamics, and renewed debates about Europe’s strategic autonomy.
Topic:
International Law, European Union, Russia-Ukraine War, and Enlargement
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

536. The Global South and the Russian War on Ukraine: Structural Constraints on Diplomatic Alignment: An assessment of the political, economic, and institutional factors shaping multilateral engagement with Russia's war against Ukraine

Author:
Paul R. Williams
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
Three years into Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a striking diplomatic gap persists between the breadth of international condemnation and the depth of practical alignment. While 141 states voted in the UN General Assembly to demand Russia's immediate withdrawal in March 2022, the countries that have joined Western-led sanctions regimes, restricted Russian access to their financial systems, or curtailed bilateral trade with Moscow represent a narrower group. That gap is not incidental and it reflects durable structural realities across the Global South that are rooted in economic dependencies, regional security pressures, institutional history, and the architecture of development finance. Understanding those realities is a prerequisite for any realistic assessment of how the conflict's diplomatic landscape might evolve. A related question follows from this analysis: given the structural depth of these constraints, whether Ukraine's diplomatic strategy would be better served by consolidating and sustaining existing Western commitments rather than investing heavily in outreach to states whose non-alignment is unlikely to shift within any operationally relevant timeframe.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Law, Sanctions, Multilateralism, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Global South

537. Roundtable Blog: Voting Under Duress — Referenda, Aggression, and the Limits of Democratic Consent

Author:
Public International Law Policy Group
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
This post is part of the PILPG Lawyering Justice roundtable series. Rather than a traditional co-authored article, it presents a curated set of expert reflections from members of PILPG’s Ukraine Peace Negotiations Working Group. Drawing on a closed-door discussion held on 6 February 2026, this roundtable examines one of the most legally and politically fraught questions facing Ukraine: whether a national referendum can play a legitimate role in a peace process shaped by aggression, occupation, and mass displacement. Referenda are commonly understood as the highest expression of democratic will. Yet in contexts defined by coercion and force, democratic instruments themselves may be distorted into tools that legitimise unlawful outcomes. This roundtable explores the legal limits of consent under international law, the precedent-setting risks of post-aggression referenda, and the strategic choices Ukraine faces in navigating popular participation without eroding its sovereignty or the international legal order.
Topic:
International Law, Voting, Referendum, Russia-Ukraine War, and Aggression
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

538. The Edge of Revolution: The 1926 General Strike, 100 Years On

Author:
David Torrance, Carolyn Quinn, Robert Saunders, Sienna Rodgers, and David Torrance
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
One hundred years ago, in May 1926, the Trades Union Congress called Britain’s first and only General Strike. Nearly three million workers downed tools, closing Britain’s docks, railways, mines, much of heavy industry and most of the press. Proclaiming a State of Emergency, the Prime Minister, Stanley Baldwin, claimed that Britain was ‘nearer to civil war than we have been for centuries past’. The Times called it ‘the gravest domestic menace which has hung over this nation since the fall of the Stuarts’. The General Strike lasted only nine days, but its impact was profound. In this centenary event, ‪@MileEndInstitute_QMUL‬ and ‪@qmulsse‬ explored the history of the General Strike, its legacy and the position of organised labour today. To celebrate the publication of a new history of the strike by Dr David Torrance, Carolyn Quinn, Robert Saunders and Sienna Rodgers joined David Torrance to ask why the strike took place, why it failed, and the lessons for the union movement, for direct action groups, and for workers’ rights in our own time.
Topic:
Politics, History, Trade Unions, and General Strike
Political Geography:
Britain and Europe

539. Practical Social Democracy and the Future of the Left

Author:
Jacqui Smith, Anneliese Dodds, and Marc Stears
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
With populism on the march and a Labour government under pressure at Westminster, what is the future of ‘social democracy’? What can governments learn from this political tradition, and what would ‘practical social democracy’ look like in the twenty-first century? In this event, held on 11 June 2026, the ‪Mile End Institute‬ and ‪Queen Mary University of London‬ marked the launch of "Practical Social Democracy" (edited by Magnus Feldmann, Jonas Hinnfors and Mark Wickham-Jones) by inviting Jacqui Smith (Minister for Skills), Anneliese Dodds (Labour MP for Oxford East) and Marc Stears (Director, ‪@UCLPolicyLab‬) to explore the past, present and future of a key political tradition.
Topic:
Government, Politics, Leftist Politics, Social Democracy, and Labour Party
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

540. Fantastic Kingdom: A Stranger's Notes on a Contrary Country

Author:
Helene von Bismarck and Robert Saunders
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
Global yet insular, tolerant yet suspicious, proudly pragmatic yet profoundly sentimental. The United Kingdom inspires fierce loyalty and endless argument. Ten years after Brexit, it is as divided as ever. After twenty years of studying Britain, German historian Helene von Bismarck offered an affectionate and insightful portrait of the United Kingdom as seen by an outsider. From the enduring fantasy of Britain as a self-sufficient island to the profound devotion to a global monarchy; from imperial amnesia to modern multiculturalism, she explored the paradoxes and myths that shape British identity.
Topic:
Imperialism, History, Multiculturalism, Brexit, Monarchy, and Identity
Political Geography:
Britain and United Kingdom

541. Triumph and Trauma: The British General Election of 2024

Author:
Tim Bale, Paula Surridge, and Stephen Bush
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
On 4 July 2024, an electoral tsunami ripped through British politics. Labour won one of the largest landslides in its history, on the lowest share of the vote of any majority government. The Conservatives suffered their worst defeat in 200 years, the Liberal Democrats secured their best-ever result, the SNP were crushed and Reform UK won 4 million votes. Six independent MPs were elected, including the former Labour Leader, Jeremy Corbyn, and the combined vote-share of the big two parties was the lowest since 1918. For Labour, the result marked a stunning turnaround from the previous election in 2019; yet commentators quickly began to speak of a ‘sandcastle majority’, that might in turn be washed away by the next electoral tide. In this event, to mark the publication of The British General Election of 2024, Queen Mary University of London‬'s Prof Tim Bale and Prof Paula Surridge were joined by Stephen Bush, Associate Editor of the Financial Times, and Rachel Cunliffe, Associate Political Editor of the New Statesman, to look back on a landmark election. They asked why 2024 saw a historic Conservative collapse, a “loveless landslide” for Labour and record fragmentation in voters’ choices and considered whether this momentous election marked the end of two-party politics in Britain.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Voting, Labour Party, and Conservative Party
Political Geography:
Britain and Europe

542. Beyond the Iron Curtain: Prof Patrick Porter and Sophia Gaston

Author:
Patrick Porter and Sophia Gaston
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
5 March 2026 marks the eightieth anniversary of Winston Churchill's landmark address in Fulton, Missouri. We remember it as the "Iron Curtain" speech, in which Churchill called the United States and the West to the barricades against Soviet communism. Today's Atlanticists might be tempted to see it as a monument to greater days, of transatlantic cooperation, moral clarity and solidarity between democracies. But the title of the speech was "The Sinews of Peace." Churchill used it not just to sound a note of alarm about Moscow, but to appeal for something constructive, urging America to accept the baton of leadership over the Old World. He spoke to an America he feared was erratic, ruthless and unreliable. His speech divided Americans, for whom the very notion of an alliance with Britain was still contentious. In this lecture, Professor Patrick Porter (Professor of International Security, University of Birmingham, and the author of Blunder: Britain's War in Iraq) and Sophia Gaston marked 80 years since Churchill’s momentous address. Can his speech help Europe and the United States renegotiate their ‘special’ relationship under today's darkening sky?
Topic:
Cold War, Transatlantic Relations, Soviet Union, and Winston Churchill
Political Geography:
Russia, United Kingdom, Europe, and United States of America

543. Kate Adie: 'A Life in Reporting'

Author:
Kate Adie and Robert Saunders
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
In the Mile End Institute's fifth distinguished Hennessy Lecture, Kate Adie joined ‪Queen Mary University of London's very own ‪Robert Saunders‬ to reflect on her long career as a reporter and explored the challenges facing a reporter in a changing world today. Kate Adie was Chief News Correspondent for BBC News from 1989 to 2003, becoming one of the most famous and respected figures in British journalism. She reported live from the Iranian Embassy Siege in 1980, the US bombing of Tripoli in 1986 and the Lockerbie bombing of 1988. She was at Tiananmen Square in 1989, was shot by a Libyan army commander and reported on the Gulf War and the war in the former Yugoslavia. She has been a freelance journalist since 2003 and presents "From Our Own Correspondent" on BBC Radio 4 and was awarded the CBE in 2018 for services to journalism. She has written five books including "The Kindness of Strangers”, an account of her work as a reporter, "Nobody's Child: The Lives of Abandoned Children" which formed the basis of the BBC series, Found, and "Fighting on the Home Front: The Legacy of Women in World War One".
Topic:
Media, Journalism, Career, and Book Talk
Political Geography:
Britain, China, Iran, Libya, and Yugoslavia

544. "We Know How to Win": Words of Defiance from Ukraine

Author:
Dmytro Kuleba, Bjorn Berge, and Olesya Khromeychuk
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
On Friday 24 April, the Centre for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies at ‪Queen Mary University of London‬ welcomed Dmytro Kuleba, the former Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Affairs Minister of Ukraine, and Bjorn Berge (Deputy Secretary General, Council of Europe) to celebrate the publication of an important account of the war in Ukraine. In this event, in association with the ‪Mile End Institute‬, Kuleba and Berge were joined by Dr Olesya Khromeychuk (‪@UkrainianInstituteLondon‬) and the international lawyer, writer and filmmaker Philippe Sands KC to discuss Berge's new book, Words of Defiance, which combines Kuleba's wartime speeches with a rare and authoritative account of how the war in Ukraine unfolded on the world stage. Our distinguished panel explored why Russia chose invasion, how the war has progressed, how to counter propaganda and disinformation, and whether there is a still a path to lasting peace.
Topic:
Propaganda, Disinformation, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and Ukraine

545. Reforming the Jury System: Speeding up Justice or Ending 800 Years of Liberty?

Author:
Kay Crosby, Hannah Quirk, Rebecca Helm, and Robert Saunders
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
In December, the government announced plans to abolish trial by jury for crimes with a sentence of less than three years. Critics spoke of an end to 800-years of the right to trial by one's peers; supporters warned of a collapse in the criminal justice system if radical action were not taken. In this webinar, the ‪Mile End Institute‬ at ‪Queen Mary University of London‬ brought together historians, lawyers and politicians to explore the challenges facing the court system and the options for change. Dr Kay Crosby (University of Newcastle), Dr Hannah Quirk (King's College London) and Professor Rebecca Helm (University of Exeter) joined Dr Robert Saunders to assess the strengths and weaknesses of jury trials in Britain and overseas, examine the surprising history of the jury system and test the science behind jury-decision making.
Topic:
Reform, Criminal Justice, Judiciary, Decision-Making, and Jury
Political Geography:
Britain and Europe

546. The Inside Story of the Campaign for a Second EU Referendum

Author:
Morgan Jones, Matthew Holehouse, Emily Robinson, and Michael Chessum
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
On 19 March 2026, the ‪Mile End Institute‬ and ‪Queen Mary University of London celebrated the publication of Morgan Jones’s new book, No Second Chances: The Inside Story of the Campaign for a Second Referendum. In this event, we brought together academics, campaigners, journalists and the author herself to explore the campaign for a second referendum after 2016, the ‘People’s Vote’ movement and the massive demonstrations of 2018-2019. Matthew Holehouse (The Economist), Prof Emily Robinson (The Politics of Feeling in Brexit Britain) and Michael Chessum (This Is Only The Beginning: The Making of a New Left) joined Morgan Jones to ask how and why these campaigns tried to stop Brexit, why they were unsuccessful, and what lessons might be learned for the future.
Topic:
Politics, European Union, Brexit, and Demonstrations
Political Geography:
Britain and Europe

547. Citizenship on Pause? The Ambiguities Surrounding Termination of Citizenship in India

Author:
Kalyani Ramnath
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:
Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:
In the past year, several writ petitions around the question of citizenship involving the children of former Indian citizens and refugees in India have come up before the appellate courtsof India. These legal developments are taking place amidstongoing efforts to revise voter rolls in Bihar, construct citizenship registers in Assam, and create a fluctuating hierarchy of identity documents across the country that have had a disproportionate impact on the most vulnerable sections of society: migrant workers, religious minorities and refugees among others.1These developments,many of which have been previously covered in the pages of theStatelessness and CitizenshipReview,highlight the seemingly impossible choices that face those applying for, resuming or exercising Indian citizenship. They also show that Indian citizenship —understood as a source of formal legal status but also as a conduit for rights, a means of shaping one’s social and cultural identities and as a moral claim about belonging —remains unsettled with consequences for families across multiple generations. The petitions to be discussed highlight legal questions of increasing importance to descendants of former Indian citizens, but also of more generalimportancegiven the changes towards increasingly restrictive citizenship, visa and residence regimes globally. Crucially,under what circumstances does Indian citizenship automatically cease? In what cases does citizenship ‘pause’and ‘resume’? What are the implications of citizenship that is paused?The legal regime relating to citizenship in India is governed by the provisions of the 1950 Constitutionof India (‘Constitution’),2the 1955 Citizenship Act(‘Citizenship Act’)3and rules made under the latter by the Central Governmentof India.4Specific dates, years and durations (eg, 1950,51987,62024,7five years,8seven years,9and so on) govern acquisition, retention, resumption, and termination of citizenship. Articles 5, 6, 7 and 8 came into force prior to the rest of the Constitutionto address the displacements occasioned by the 1947 Partition into India and Pakistan, noting that everyone who was ordinarily resident in the territory of India was an Indian citizen at the time of the commencement of the Constitution.10Under the aegis of art 11 of the Constitution, the Parliament enacted the Citizenship Actwhich created provisions for citizenship by naturalisation, registration and incorporation of territory.11Dual citizenship was not permitted.12The continuing ambiguities of India’s citizenship regime relate to intersections between the Citizenship Actitself,and adjacent regimes relating to the issuance of a passport. The Citizenship Actlays out provisions for the acquisition of citizenship which, like much citizenship and immigration legislation all over the world, feature time limits. Naturalisation could be initiated after a period of five years of continuous residence,13registration as an Indian citizen born abroad was possible for up to one year after birth, and so on. Termination of citizenship is also subject to term limits. Under s 8, a child’s Indian citizenship is automatically terminated when a parent who is an Indian citizen renounces their citizenship. However, the child’s citizenship can be resumed within one year of turning eighteen.14Although the systemic disadvantages faced by those trying to acquire, retain and recognise their Indian citizenship have been studied, the petitions discussed in the following sections illustrate how provisionsrelating to automatic cessation of citizenship can createsystemic disadvantages,and even de facto statelessness in cases where families have moved across international borders from or into India.
Topic:
Law, Children, Citizenship, and Citizenship Termination
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

548. Nagoya High Court, Decision, Reiwa 6 Nen (Ra), No 431 (11 September 2024)

Author:
Hajime Akiyama
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:
Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:
Japan is not a contracting party to either the 1954 Convention relating to the Status of Stateless Persons1or to the 1961 Convention on the Reduction of Statelessness.2It also does not have a systematic determination mechanism for determining the status of stateless persons.3However, statelessness, or being ‘without nationality’, is an important matter in Japanese nationality law.4Article2 of the Japanese Nationality Act(‘Nationality Act’)provides for the method to acquire nationality by birth.5It follows the jus sanguinisprinciple, so that children acquire Japanese nationality if at least one of the parents is a Japanese national. In addition, art 2(iii) of the Nationality Actintroduces the jus soliprinciple for limited circumstances. A child acquires Japanese nationality ‘if the childwas born in Japan, either both of the parents are unknown or if known, both of them are without nationality’.6In this context, the interpretation of ‘without nationality’is important because it determines whether children acquire Japanese nationality.In 2024, a decision related to the interpretation of the words ‘without nationality’was made in the Nagoya High Court(‘Court’).7In this case(‘Afghan Case’), a child (‘the Appellant’) was born in Japan in 2022 to Afghan parents. Initially, the parents were regarded as possessing Afghan nationality, so the child did not acquire Japanese nationality. However, in 2021, the Taliban took control of Afghanistan, leading to the collapse of the former government. The de facto authorities were not recognised by many governments, including Japan. Based on this background, the Court stated that parents from Afghanistan should be regarded as ‘without nationality’and, as a result, the child born to these parents should acquire Japanese nationality.8This case is the first one of its kind.9It can be regarded as a positive example from the perspectives of human rights and the right to a nationality. However, the Court’s ruling raises questions about the interpretation of the recognition of statehood and government under international law.
Topic:
International Law, Courts, Nationality, Statelessness, and Jus Sanguinis
Political Geography:
Japan and Asia

549. Faslliu And Rexha V Albania: The Right to Birth Registration Under the ICCPR

Author:
Clara Van Thillo
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:
Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:
On 29 October 2024, the United Nations (‘UN’) Human Rights Committee (‘Committee’) considered the right to birth registration under art 24(2) of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights(‘ICCPR’) for the first time in Daniel Faslliu, Marjeldo Rexha and Haijrije Rexha v Albania (‘Faslliu and Rexha’).1The case concerned the refusal by the Albanian authorities to register the births of three Roma children who had been born abroad, putting them at risk of statelessness and hampering their access to basic rights and services, including education and healthcare.2The Committee found violations of the rights to birth registration, to acquire a nationality, to be recognised as a person before the law and the prohibition of discrimination based on ethnicity.3Birth registration is essential for establishing children’s legal identity, as it records place of birth, parentage and often, nationality.4Despite its critical importance, millions of children worldwide5—including in Europe —6remain unregistered. Children born into Roma communities are particularly vulnerable, since they often live in poverty and irregular conditions stemming from systemic and longstanding discrimination.7Recognising the importance of birth registration, the Committee found that without it individuals remain legally invisible and that upholding these rights is paramount to enjoy other socio-economic rights.8Notwithstanding some remaining questions in the decision, in particular the determination of statelessness, the Committee took an important step on the road to securing legal identity for all.9
Topic:
United Nations, Roma, Nationality, Statelessness, Birth Registration, and ICCPR
Political Geography:
Europe and Albania

550. Hierarchies of Statelessness in Germany

Author:
Kauther Alhusainy, Margarida Farinha, Wala' Hussam Maaitah, and Aleksandra Semeriak Gavrilenok
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:
Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:
This article argues that the categorisation practice of ‘undetermined nationality’ produces a hierarchy of statelessness that results in the inadequate fulfilment of Germany’s international obligations to protect stateless people. This categorisation practice is maintained through the absence of a statelessness determination procedure, discriminatory legal frameworks and problematic discretionary administrative practices. The article draws on eight semi-structured, in-depth interviews conducted in March and April 2024 with people with lived experience of statelessness in Germany. It illustrates how different categories of statelessness affect individuals in their everyday self-realisation, career prospects, wellbeing and political participation. It offers testimonies from different generations of stateless individuals, evidencing how statelessness is not a static legal anomaly, but a dynamic, bureaucratically and legally manufactured spectrum of legal stratification and exclusion. These testimonies also show that if Germany does not implement a statelessness determination procedure it will continue to avoid its responsibilities, failing to comply with international obligations and contributing to human rights violations.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Law, Nationality, and Statelessness
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

551. Italy’s 2024 Universal Criminalisation of Surrogacy: Heightened Risk of Statelessness?

Author:
Michel Rouleau-Dick, Meiraf Tesfaye, and Angelica Conti
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:
Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:
On 4 November 2024, Italy passed Law No 169,1enacting a blanket ban on international surrogacy and criminalising the practice by amending the already restrictive Italian legal framework on the issue. This new law gathered considerable attention in the media and echoes wider trends in Europe.2Whereas many of the discussions have focused on the reform’s broad scope, this commentary instead looks at the intersection between international surrogacy and statelessness, including the existing obligations of Italy and other European Union (‘EU’) member states (‘EU States’) under the relevant legal frameworks and the policy implications of this new development. We also investigate the compatibility of Italy’s legal reform with its international legal obligations on statelessness, as children born in the context of international surrogacy arrangements are particularly at risk.
Topic:
European Union, Criminalization, Statelessness, European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), and Surrogacy
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

552. Exploring Atypical Citizenship Deprivation and Spillover Effects in the Contested Taiwanese Citizenship

Author:
Jing-Han Chen
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:
Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:
Taiwan, an island nation with an ambiguous international status, has one of the most contested citizenship regimes in the world. This paper explores the perspectives of Taiwanese people on their precarious citizenship: a topic previously underexplored. The central argument posits that mis-recognition of Taiwanese citizenship by foreign authorities amounts to a denial of citizenship: a form of atypical citizenship deprivation that lacks human rights safeguards. Two recent European Court of Human Rights (‘ECtHR’) cases illustrate these points: Liu and Others v Norway, and Liu v Poland. In exploring these cases, this paper discusses the spillover effect of how issues of citizenship and sovereignty become crucial in international legal disputes, even when not explicitly related to the primary legal issues of the case in question. These reflections on liminal Taiwanese citizenship illuminate broader concerns of contested citizenship in the contemporary international community.
Topic:
International Law, Sovereignty, Citizenship, Statehood, and European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR)
Political Geography:
Taiwan and Asia

553. Rethinking Statelessness from Within: De Facto Statelessness And (Dys)Functional Citizenship in Haiti

Author:
Rebekah Prystupa
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:
Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:
The concept of statelessness is typically framed as a legalistic issue caused by displacement or migration. This state-focussed lens serves to marginalise the experiences of the de facto stateless and those whose experiences fall outside the legalistic binary of citizen or de jure stateless. This article works to disrupt these tendencies by conceptualising the intra-national issues of ‘unbelonging’ and lack of political agency in Haiti as a phenomenon of de facto statelessness. In doing so, this article reframes the colonial ramifications of Western interventionism in Haiti and their exacerbation of the effects of the 2010 earthquake and loss of voting since 2016 as a crisis of de facto statelessness. Through engagement with the political theory of Hannah Arendt, leveraged alongside the writings of post-colonial Haitian authors, this article recentres the experiences of individuals in Haiti as deeply affected by political disenfranchisement and unbelonging.
Topic:
Migration, Natural Disasters, Displacement, Earthquake, and Statelessness
Political Geography:
Caribbean and Haiti

554. Fragile Recovery of Philippine Democracy: Uneven Stabilization under the Marcos Jr. Administration

Author:
Francisco A. Magno and John Arzil E. Manabat
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Francisco A. Magno and John Arzil E. Manabat, both of De La Salle University, examine the Philippines’ transition from the severe democratic backsliding and "electoral autocracy" to a phase of uneven, "fragile stabilization" under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. While there have been improvements in media freedom and instances of judicial independence, the authors point out that fundamental vulnerabilities including entrenched corruption, pervasive disinformation networks, and weak legislative oversight continue to obstruct a comprehensive systemic transformation. Ultimately, Magno and Manabat underscore that the country’s democratic trajectory depends on coordinated institutional reforms to prevent a renewed slide into autocratization, such as safeguarding the information ecosystem and enforcing strict anti-corruption measures.
Topic:
Corruption, Democracy, Disinformation, Democratic Backsliding, and Stabilization
Political Geography:
Asia and Philippines

555. Taiwan’s Democratic Backsliding and Resilience: Institutional Backsliding and Sources of Renewal

Author:
Hans H. Tung and Lev Nachman
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Hans H. Tung, Professor at National Taiwan University, and Lev Nachman, Associate Professor at National Taiwan University, examine the signs of democratic backsliding and institutional stress in Taiwan following the 2024 election, highlighting the gridlock between the Legislative Yuan and the Constitutional Court. They point out that this internal polarization, combined with external pressures such as the PRC’s military threats and disinformation campaigns, is undermining Taiwan’s democratic foundations. Ultimately, they underscore that civil society's resilience and international linkages remain the core strengths sustaining Taiwan's democracy, suggesting that protecting the rules of fair competition will determine its future course.
Topic:
Civil Society, Elections, Institutions, Disinformation, Polarization, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Asia

556. Harnessing AI to Strengthen South Korean Democracy

Author:
Sunghack Lim
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Sunghack Lim, professor at the University of Seoul, examines how AI poses escalating threats to both procedural and substantive democracy in South Korea, from deepfake electoral manipulation to algorithmic bias and structural inequality. He credits early procedural responses, such as the AI deepfake detection model and the AI Basic Law, but argues that policies addressing epistemic erosion, technocratic drift, and deepening inequality remain largely at the discussion stage. Against this backdrop, Lim calls for a decisive shift from South Korea's development-driven AI policy toward democratic governance, proposing civic deliberation platforms, digital citizens' assemblies, and robust AI audit frameworks as concrete pathways forward.
Topic:
Development, Governance, Democracy, Artificial Intelligence, Election Interference, and Deepfakes
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

557. Post-2023 Thailand: Democratic Backsliding from Authoritarian Resilience and Elite Compromise

Author:
Napon Jatusripitak
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Napon Jatusripitak, Visiting Fellow and Coordinator of the Thailand Studies Programme at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, explores Thailand’s post-2023 political trajectory, characterizing it as a consolidation of authoritarian resilience rather than typical democratic backsliding. He details how junta legacies and "toxic" compromises have decoupled elections from governance, leading to politicized oversight and stalled structural reforms. Reflecting on the upcoming February 2026 election, Jatusripitak stresses the importance of addressing the deliberate institutional designs and elite bargains that continue to prevent a functioning democracy from ever taking root in Thailand.
Topic:
Politics, Governance, Authoritarianism, Reform, Elites, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
Thailand and Southeast Asia

558. Democratic Backsliding in India: From Short Recovery to Authoritarian Resilience

Author:
Niranjan Sahoo
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Niranjan Sahoo, Senior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, examines India's precarious democratic trajectory as it shifts from a moment of recovery following the 2024 elections toward a state of "authoritarian resilience." He details how the consolidation of a "super executive" has systematically weakened vital checks and balances, utilizing state agencies and strategic legal interpretations to suppress dissent and marginalize political opposition. Analyzing the rise of majority-rule politics and its impact on India's secular fabric, Sahoo highlights the critical role of civil society, a unified opposition, and multi-party federalism as the primary mechanisms of democratic resilience and potential recovery.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Elections, Domestic Politics, Democratic Backsliding, and Authoritarian Resilience
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

559. Governance Capacity Building through Development Assistance: The Case of KALAHI-CIDSS

Author:
Ji In Seol
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Ji In Seol, Lecturer in Sustainable Development at Yonsei University, examines how community-driven development (CDD) programs can strengthen local governance and renew the social contract, with a focus on the Philippines' KALAHI-CIDSS program. She traces the program's evolution from a 2002 pilot initiative into a nationwide model of inclusive development, highlighting its gains in citizen participation, transparency, and community trust. While noting mixed evidence on broader governance impact, Seol argues that KALAHI-CIDSS demonstrates how development assistance can foster genuine civic empowerment when designed around existing social networks and long-term institutional frameworks.
Topic:
Governance, Social Contract, Inclusion, Capacity Building, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:
Asia and Philippines

560. From Streets to Courtrooms: Youth Activism and Democratic Resilience in Indonesia

Author:
Aisah Putri Budiatri
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Aisah Putri, a political researcher at Indonesia’s National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), analyzes how youth activism has evolved from street protests into a key driver of democratic resilience through strategic judicial reviews. She details successful legal challenges led by young activists that have corrected legal deficits and reinforced accountability, such as the abolition of the presidential threshold and the annulment of "false news" provisions. However, Putri highlights that persistent regime pressure and fragmented coordination pose significant structural constraints on the long-term sustainability of youth-led resistance.
Topic:
Democracy, Youth, Resilience, and Activism
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

561. 'Trade is in our Blood': Momentum Builds in Asia for Expanding Rules-based Economic Cooperation

Author:
Jane Mellsop
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
The trade world experienced unprecedented upheaval in 2025, but Asia still sees the rules-based trading system as the strongest foundation for its future. Trade is “in the blood” in Asia, and these countries continue to forge ahead with trade arrangements with multiple partners—so-called plurilateral trade arrangements—to further integrate their economies, provide certainty for businesses, promote innovation, and enhance economic growth. However, it has not been all smooth sailing, particularly at a time when evolving trade policy of the United States is demanding significant attention from all economies. Regional plurilateral agreements, such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) with 12 parties and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) with 15 parties, have brought benefits to their members; however, to remain relevant, they need to be updated to keep pace with emerging developments. For the CPTPP, this has not been easy given its broad membership with diverse interests that hampers progress toward consensus on ambitious upgrades. Expanding the membership of these agreements or even instituting novel dialogues with other trading blocs as the CPTPP has started with the EU and ASEAN, not only provides opportunities to access new markets and expand integration but also sends an important signal in support of rules-based trade at this critical time. Asia should not be complacent with the trade rules already in place. The region would benefit from harnessing the current moment when countries are focused on diversifying markets and suppliers to pursue new plurilateral cooperation and agreements in specific sectors, or to address specific trade challenges, such as critical minerals, an economic security framework, or green technology. The first two of these in particular are of interest to the current U.S. administration, though Asian countries would also need to consider how China might view any new arrangements. Importantly, countries are more willing now to consider formats other than legally binding comprehensive agreements to support greater economic integration with like-minded partners, such as agreed principles, guidelines, or concrete areas of cooperation to unlock trade and bring benefits to stakeholders, such as the new Future of Investment and Trade Partnership (FITP). While the current global trading context provides impetus for progressing plurilateral initiatives that deepen economic integration among partners, one challenge is the lack of an obvious leader in the region—country or person—to drive such initiatives forward. A group of like-minded countries, such as Australia, Japan, Republic of Korea, and Singapore, could step up and lead the charge in support of increased plurilateral integration and the rules-based system. However, even with the best of intentions, countries will be constrained by their own limited resources for trade negotiations and implementation, while developing countries in particular need capacity building, including from high-quality investments, to make any trade deal successful. This report shares these insights and more from roundtable discussions and interviews with more than 60 experts from both inside and outside government from across Asia and the United States on how like-minded countries can preserve and enhance the rules-based trading system through plurilateral arrangements.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, Trade, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
Asia and United States of America

562. Assetizing, Trading, Franchising: China's Strategy for Building a National Data Economy

Author:
Ran Guo
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
How can the state harness data as a driver of economic development? This paper examines China’s efforts to expand its data economy since 2022 through a combination of policy and market mechanisms. Two developments signaled this shift. First, the issuance of the Twenty Data Measures in December 2022 articulated a national framework for development-oriented data governance. Second, the establishment of the National Data Administration (NDA) in October 2023 designated a central authority responsible for coordinating data-related economic policymaking. Together, these moves reflect China’s distinctive policy vision — an institutional division of labor in China’s data governance regime, in which developmental functions are increasingly centralized under the NDA, while data security and privacy oversight remain with the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) and other agencies responsible for enforcing preexisting regulatory frameworks. The paper analyzes three policy experiments aimed at advancing China’s data economy: data assetization, which enables data to be valued and traded as a financial assets; state-owned data exchanges, which provide platforms for the controlled marketization of data; and public data franchising, which grants select entities exclusive rights to commercialize government-held public data. These experiments seek to integrate fragmented local data markets into a unified national market, addressing China’s persistent data fragmentation across jurisdictions and sectors, also called the “data island” problem. While early progress is evident, significant challenges remain, including uneven data quality, weak demand for data products, limited interoperability among domestic data markets, emerging monopolistic tendencies in data franchising, and unresolved privacy and security risks. Globally, China’s state-led data economy is often presented as an alternative to European Union and U.S. approaches to data governance, which tend to frame data governance primarily as a constraint on liberal markets rather than tools to support market construction and development. By examining China’s evolving data governance regime, this paper contributes to comparative debates on data governance and offers insights into why China’s approach may hold particular appeal in non-Western contexts, especially as emerging digital powers actively advance growth-centered political economies around data and AI.
Topic:
Governance, Economic Development, Artificial Intelligence, and Data
Political Geography:
China and Asia

563. What to Watch at China's Two Sessions in 2026

Author:
Neil Thomas and Lobsang Tsering
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
China’s annual “Two Sessions” convene from March 4 to approximately March 11. Thousands of delegates from across the nation will gather in Beijing for one of the most important events on the Chinese political calendar. This year is especially significant because the government will not only announce its annual economic targets but will also publish the 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP), outlining policy objectives for 2026–2030. Key watchpoints include: How fast does Beijing want the economy to grow this year? How quickly can it shift from old to new growth drivers? Which strategic emerging industries will receive policy support? Is China prioritizing high-tech competition with the United States at the expense of rebalancing toward consumption and services? What signals will Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, send about his personal priorities? Could there be personnel shakeups?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, Economy, Strategic Competition, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:
China and Asia

564. South Korea’s Sovereign AI Initiative for Democracy: A Transferable Model for the Global Community

Author:
Jong Jin Lee
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Jong Jin Lee, Senior Fellow at the Institute for Peace and Unification Studies, Seoul National University, argues that South Korea's Sovereign AI framework — anchored in the AI Basic Act (2024/2026) and the K-AI Initiative — offers a replicable third path between Silicon Valley techno-liberalism and Chinese state-AI authoritarianism. Tracing Korea's AI governance evolution across three institutional phases, Dr. Lee contends that democratic alignment, civic oversight, and epistemic sovereignty constitute the core of a globally transferable model. Building on this analysis, the author calls for middle-power democracies to adopt Korea's frameworks for AI security resilience and pluralistic technical standards as a democratic alternative to the dominant AI order.
Topic:
Sovereignty, Governance, Democracy, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, and Global Focus

565. AI Aid for Good Governance: Reconfiguring South Korea’s International Development Cooperation in the AI Era

Author:
Myung-jae Moon
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Myung-jae Moon, Distinguished Professor at Yonsei University, examines how South Korea can align its "AI for All" agenda with official development assistance (ODA) to strengthen good governance in developing countries. He traces the evolution of South Korea's digital government ODA into an AI-augmented phase, cautioning that AI cooperation requires administrative capacity, ethical governance, and partner-country readiness. Against this backdrop, Moon calls for a governance-first approach, proposing leapfrogging support for AI-augmented government and digital public infrastructure anchored in principles of human oversight and in global frameworks such as the Hiroshima AI Process.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Governance, International Development, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

566. Scam Offensives in Southeast Asia: Comparing Beijing's and Washington's Strategies and Assessing Opportunities for Coordination

Author:
Bryanna Entwhistle
Publication Date:
08-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
Disrupting Asia’s cyber scam industry, which is valued at between $88.3 billion and $114.1 billion annually, presents a rare point of mutual interest for the United States and China. Both Chinese and American citizens are both primary targets of complex online fraud schemes run predominantly out of Myanmar, Cambodia, and Laos. To identify where opportunities for cooperation on addressing the issue exist for the United States and China, this paper examines the nature of Beijing's crackdowns on cyber scam operations in Southeast Asia, when Beijing chooses to act, and how. It identifies three core factors driving Chinese action: domestic pressure, reputational damage, and national security concerns. Where these factors converge, as in Myanmar, Beijing has acted swiftly and forcefully. Where reputational pressure collides with countervailing strategic interests, as in Cambodia, Beijing's pressure has been delayed but has grown over time. And where none of the three factors materially apply, as in Laos, Beijing has yet to move against major actors. When Beijing does act, it leverages bilateral, trilateral, and multilateral frameworks to conduct joint operations and intelligence gathering with its Southeast Asian partners. Framed under China’s Global Security Initiative (GSI), these mechanisms have broadened the country’s security relationships across the region—although partner states have not always welcomed Beijing's inroads. As Beijing conducted raids against scam centers in Myanmar, the industry began redirecting its targeting toward the West: American losses to China-linked criminal groups grew to $10 billion per year by 2024. Washington has responded with a cross-departmental campaign of sanctions, indictments, asset seizures, and takedowns of scam-enabling online infrastructure. Still, the U.S. response is hampered by limited operational capacity on the ground in Southeast Asia and the "whack-a-mole" nature of the industry. Concerns about China’s GSI expansion, intelligence sharing sensitivities, host-state political economies, and Beijing’s treatment of trafficked workers are substantial obstacles that stand in the way of U.S.-China cooperation on this issue. Still, bounded cooperation has the potential to serve the interests of both Beijing and Washington. There appears to be recognition of this on the ministerial level: FBI Director Kash Patel has traveled to Beijing twice in the past year to discuss expanding coordination on tackling cyber scams with China, alongside several other forms of transnational crime. In April, the United States, China, Thailand, and the United Arab Emirates organized a joint raid on scam centers in Dubai; however, misaligned incentives and strategic distrust have thus far stood in the way of further law enforcement coordination between Beijing and Washington. In support of future law enforcement coordination between China and the United States that takes into account existing obstacles rather than ignoring them, this paper draws on an understanding of Beijing’s cyber scam offensive in Southeast Asia to propose the following recommendations for how Washington could pursue tactical and bounded coordination on the issue: Push for leader-to-leader engagement, drawing on lessons from the fentanyl negotiations; Utilize third countries to mediate and coordinate joint raids and intelligence sharing; Approach Beijing with intelligence-backed asks; Leverage existing channels to facilitate financial intelligence sharing; and Continue using sanctions and indictments to incentivize Beijing to recall key actors.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Law Enforcement, Fraud, Intelligence Sharing, and Scam Centers
Political Geography:
China, Cambodia, Southeast Asia, Laos, Myanmar, and United States of America

567. Beyond the Biotech Race — Right-Sizing U.S.-China Competition in a Human-Centered Industry

Author:
Jing Qian, Lizzi C. Lee, and Chris Li
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
U.S.-China biotech competition is often framed as a linear, zero-sum race at the technological frontier. A more accurate framework is asymmetric convergence. Biotechnology is not a single chokepoint technology like semiconductors but rather constitutes a multi-layered biomedical ecosystem spanning basic science, translational research, clinical trials, manufacturing, regulatory review, commercialization, data governance, and healthcare delivery. The United States and China are increasingly competing across the same ecosystem, but with different strengths at different layers of the value chain. The United States retains enduring structural advantages, but they require renewal. U.S. leadership remains strongest in foundational science, first-in-class discovery, academic medical centers, venture-backed translational research, deep capital markets, FDA credibility, global standard-setting, and the ability to attract and retain world-class scientific talent. These advantages have long made the United States the orchestrator of frontier biomedical innovation. But they are not self-sustaining. Funding instability, pressure on universities, uncertainty around regulatory capacity, and disruptive and overly restrictive immigration policies could weaken the talent and discovery engine that has historically powered American biotech leadership. China’s biotech rise is no longer simply a story of catch-up or imitation. China has become a systemic peer competitor in several operational domains, including research scale, clinical trial execution, biological manufacturing, asset formation, regional biotech clustering, and global out-licensing. Its strengths are most pronounced where biotechnology functions as an industrial and engineering system: scaling research output, executing trials quickly, mobilizing capital, integrating hospitals and manufacturing, and generating licensable assets at speed. China’s convergence is structural and likely to outlast any fixed policy window. Beijing’s progress is not merely the result of temporary subsidies or isolated breakthroughs. It reflects years of institutional adaptation, talent recruitment, regulatory reform, capital mobilization, data mercantilism, IP capture, and participation in global biomedical networks. Because these capabilities are embedded across multiple layers of the biotech value chain, they are unlikely to be reversed by any single policy tool or short-term action. Biotech should not be treated as exactly analogous to semiconductors. Export controls and “protect” and “restrict” measures may be necessary in specific areas involving sensitive data, dual-use capabilities, supply-chain vulnerabilities, or modalities of national security concern. But broad, undifferentiated restrictions in biotech risk weakening U.S. competitiveness, reducing visibility into global biomedical developments, disrupting supply chains, and slowing innovation in areas where patient outcomes are directly at stake. The United States needs an affirmative, layer-specific strategy. A more effective approach should distinguish among the different layers of the biotech ecosystem: preserve openness in basic science where it underpins U.S. leadership; apply targeted guardrails where national security risks are real; strengthen domestic capacity in biomanufacturing, translational research, and supply-chain resilience; lead in regulatory and data-governance standards; and maintain U.S. influence in global biomedical networks. Competition with China should be used as a catalyst to upgrade the U.S. biotech system. The central U.S. challenge is not only how to restrict China where risks are genuine, but how to compete from a position of renewed strength. This means reinvigorating NIH and NSF funding for basic science, improving translational efficiency, expanding biomanufacturing capacity, supporting clinical trial modernization, strengthening regulatory agility, and preserving America’s ability to attract global talent. Health and medicine remain among the few domains where bounded, de-risked cooperation is still strategically viable. Shared disease burdens, asymmetric capabilities, patient needs, and the humanitarian nature of biomedical innovation create conditions for narrow cooperation that few other sectors can match. Cancer, rare diseases, mental health, chronic illness, aging, pandemic preparedness, antimicrobial resistance, and ethical governance are systemic challenges that do not stop at national borders. A realistic cooperation agenda should be narrow, practical, and subject to clear guardrails. Potential areas include disease-specific clinical trial corridors, rare disease research, oncology pilots, mental health as a shared public health challenge, affordability and access, regulatory learning, and practical training in healthcare delivery and regulatory science. These channels should avoid unrestricted data sharing or sensitive technology transfer and instead focus on privacy protection standards, patient safety, implementation capacity, and measurable health outcomes. The central policy question is not whether the United States should compete with China in biotechnology. It must. The question is how to right-size that competition. A sound strategy should protect national security where risks are real, preserve U.S. scientific and industrial leadership where advantages remain decisive, invest in domestic capacity where vulnerabilities exist, and sustain carefully bounded cooperation where it serves American interests and improves human health.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Public Health, Strategic Competition, Medicine, Biotechnology, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

568. An Overview of U.S.-China Life Sciences Competition and Cooperation

Author:
Brendan Kelly and Craig Allen
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
After gaining attention in 2025, biotechnology, pharmaceuticals, and the broader life sciences sector are moving to the fore of U.S.-China economic and technology competition in 2026. The sector encapsulates all the myriad challenges and opportunities in the U.S.-China bilateral economic relationship, while also serving as a key test case for the Trump administration’s efforts to pursue a more balanced — and transactional — approach with China. Issues involved in the life sciences sector are wide-ranging: serious national security concerns (as biotechnology intersects with advanced AI tools) along with supply chain vulnerabilities, market access barriers for foreign products in China’s domestic market, cross-border data sharing challenges, increasing U.S.-China competition at the leading edge of technology, and growing concerns that the United States could lose its global share in a key sector it has traditionally dominated to Chinese firms benefitting from industrial policies and state support. Yet, despite these tensions, biopharma is one of the few areas in which U.S.-China linkages are growing. A surge of licensing deals over the past few years has cemented cooperation between U.S. pharmaceutical firms and Chinese biotechnology companies that are trialing Chinese-developed compounds in the U.S. market. At the same time, China has made rapid technological advances in the biotech sector, providing both new opportunities and a competitive threat for U.S. firms. Following intensifying U.S.-China competition and decoupling in semiconductors, the risk of a bifurcation of life sciences industry is nonetheless growing. In January 2025, the United States imposed its first export controls largely focused on China’s biotech threat. In December 2025, after two years of congressional deliberation, the BIOSECURE Act was passed into law, imposing phased-in restrictions intended to lessen supply chain reliance of U.S. biopharma firms on Chinese contract development and manufacturing organizations (CDMOs). On April 8, 2025, the Department of Justice announced data regulations that have materially tightened the rules governing the transfer of U.S.-origin clinical trial and genomic data to China. Finally, Members of Congress and advisory groups are also pushing to include the biotech sector in the U.S. outbound investment control regime. As with most U.S.-China economic issues, the commercial tensions also come back to China’s macro and trade imbalances — particularly its heavy focus on production and less on consumption, or in this case, the provision of healthcare to its own citizens. China’s imbalanced approach and discriminatory policies — seeking to expand access to global markets while limiting access for foreign firms in its own market — risk reinforcing decoupling if China does not reciprocate by extending the benefits of more open bilateral trade and investment. Often missing from discussions around biotechnology competition, however, is a focus on the obstacles to fairer competition for U.S. firms and products in the Chinese market. According to the U.S.-China Business Council (USCBC) 2025 Export Report, pharmaceuticals are the fourth largest U.S. export to China, growing rapidly until 2023 but declining since then. U.S. medical equipment exports to China also grew strongly, before stagnating the past few years. Together, pharmaceuticals and medical equipment account for roughly 10% of U.S. exports to China, with further potential if they were not held back by discriminatory measures and market access challenges. Notably, while most trade frictions focus on China’s surging exports, the European Union in 2025 completed a landmark investigation and found broad discrimination against foreign medical devices in China’s domestic market, leading the EU to limit China’s access to the EU’s procurement market in response. For U.S. stakeholders, the focus on supply chain vulnerability and heavy reliance on China is understandable — biotechnology’s dependence on complex global inputs and specialized manufacturing capacity makes reliance on China particularly acute, with recent disruptions in critical minerals supplies from China underscoring this risk. However, in seeking to win the “competition” in biotechnology, too little focus has been placed on finding the right balance for the United States to maximize benefits from commercial and scientific engagement with China in this field, while mitigating excessive supply chain reliance on China. With patient health outcomes — and potential access to future life-saving or life-improving drugs — at stake, finding the right balance in life sciences competition with China is more complex and arguably more pivotal than in other areas of advanced technology rivalry. This calls for a robust discussion in policy circles, publicly and bilaterally, to find the correct balance. Failure to do so risks damaging U.S. interests. At the same time, China similarly risks undermining its own interests — including China’s own access to global markets and technology — it does not allow more reciprocal sharing of the benefits of life sciences cooperation.
Topic:
International Cooperation, National Security, Science and Technology, Strategic Competition, Biotechnology, Economic Security, and Life Sciences
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

569. Russia–North Korea Military Cooperation in Response to China’s Tactical Ambiguity

Author:
Sungmin Cho
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
The alignment among China, North Korea, and Russia has emerged as one of the most consequential developments in contemporary international security. Russia and North Korea have significantly deepened their military cooperation, while China has adopted a more ambiguous stance toward these developments. North Korea has deployed at least 12,000 troops to support Russian forces in Ukraine and supplied large quantities of artillery rounds, rockets, and ballistic missiles, including ammunition of various calibers.1 When asked about these developments, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian stated that Russia and North Korea “are two independent sovereign states, and how they develop their bilateral relations is a matter for themselves.”2 Some Western analysts interpret this position as evidence that Beijing is uneasy about Russia and North Korea’s deepening military ties and therefore refrains from openly endorsing closer military cooperation between the two — an indication of potential fissures within the China–North Korea–Russia triangle. This report offers a different interpretation. Rather than viewing China’s ambiguity as evidence of fragmentation, it argues that deepening Russia–North Korea military cooperation stems in part from their own distrust of Beijing in the first place. Available evidence suggests that Pyongyang may have regarded China’s economic support as insufficient, while Moscow likely viewed Beijing’s reluctance to provide direct military assistance — along with its parallel efforts to stabilize relations with the United States and its allies for economic reasons — with unease. From the perspectives of Russia and North Korea, the most reliable strategy for keeping China closely aligned is to first deepen their own bilateral cooperation. Doing so increases Beijing’s concern about potential exclusion from strategic coordination while also intensifying U.S. and allied military cooperation. Together, these dynamics may push China toward closer alignment with Moscow and Pyongyang. This dynamic represents a structural dilemma in China’s strategy. On the one hand, Beijing demonstrates strategic clarity in opposing Western pressure alongside Russia and North Korea. On the other hand, it maintains tactical ambiguity to avoid being drawn directly into the conflicts that Moscow and Pyongyang face with the West.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Security, Bilateral Relations, Strategic Ambiguity, and Military Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Asia, North Korea, and United States of America

570. Global Public Opinion on China: China’s Standing in Southeast Asia’s Swing States

Author:
Kevin Zongzhe Li
Publication Date:
07-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
Public opinion toward China across Southeast Asia's swing states has remained net positive over the past two decades, but has steadily declined. The regional average declines from roughly +33 in the 2000s, to +26 in the 2010s, and +20 in the 2020s. The trajectory reflects greater sensitivity to security risks, as China's economic weight and geopolitical presence expanded. The analysis identifies three distinct patterns across the region. In maritime frontline states such as the Philippines and Vietnam, sovereignty confrontations in the South China Sea have been followed by sharp and, sometimes, durable shifts in public sentiment. In maritime tension states such as Indonesia and Malaysia, frictions are present but more tightly managed; public opinion fluctuates but does not experience sustained rupture. In non-frontline states such as Thailand and Singapore, attitudes are comparatively stable, shaped primarily by economic interdependence, domestic political context, and social factors. Attitudes toward China across Southeast Asia's swing states reflect the interaction of economic exposure and sovereignty pressure. Where China is encountered primarily through economic engagement, baseline sentiment tends to remain positive; where territorial disputes become politically salient, attitudes shift more sharply. Public opinion does not move uniformly across Southeast Asia, nor does it point toward simple alignment with or against China. General public perceptions may diverge from the more security-focused views reflected in elite surveys of regional policy, business, and academic communities. While elite responses often emphasize strategic rivalry and risk, public opinion appears to evolve more gradually and remains strongly influenced by economic and social exchange.
Topic:
Economics, Territorial Disputes, Public Opinion, Geopolitics, Elites, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Asia, Vietnam, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand

571. The Factors That Matter: A Formula for Understanding China’s Use of Force Calculus Over Taiwan

Author:
Lyle Morris
Publication Date:
07-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
As the United States and China enter a prolonged period of instability and tension, how and under what circumstances China may use force, or, alternatively, be deterred from using force, has become of crucial importance to U.S. policymakers seeking to avoid conflict with the People’s Republic of China (PRC). While the United States can draw on its experience gauging threats and making difficult strategic calculations during the Cold War rivalry with the Soviet Union, the emerging strategic rivalry with China is still in its early stages. The question of how to deter conflict with the PRC will be an increasingly important factor in the strategic calculations in Beijing and Washington, especially in times of heightened instability and crisis between the two powers. This, in turn, raises enormous and complex questions for U.S. policy regarding U.S.-China strategic stability, U.S.-China crisis management, and strategic and conventional deterrence vis-à-vis China. In spite of this emergent challenge, critical gaps remain in the Western understanding of PRC deterrence concepts. Most importantly, and most urgently, there is little understanding of how or why China may be deterred from resorting to military force in the event of a serious confrontation with the United States. To address these critical gaps, this paper explores China’s approach to deterrence in the military and diplomatic domain, in order to inform U.S. understanding of how it might deter China in a crisis or conflict. In particular, this paper introduces a set of key variables that matter most to China’s leadership in contemplating using force to “reunify” Taiwan with mainland China. This study develops a methodological formula that can be used by policy-makers and academics interested in understanding what has deterred Chinese leaders from using force against Taiwan, and what might cause China to change its calculus.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Military Affairs, Deterrence, Regional Security, and Use of Force
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Asia

572. From Growth to Visibility: Bureaucratic Incentives After China's Cadre Evaluation Reforms

Author:
Zhuoran Li
Publication Date:
07-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
President Xi Jinping has spent more than a decade trying to reform the incentive system of China's bureaucracy, especially the incentives for local governments. Xi launched sweeping reforms of the cadre evaluation system—reducing the emphasis on GDP growth, expanding performance assessments to include social welfare and environmental protection metrics, and strengthening inspections of policy implementation. These reforms were intended to shift bureaucratic incentives away from short-term political performance and toward more balanced governance. Yet a different pattern has emerged. Local governments, especially at the level of township and county, have increasingly devoted resources to highly visible "spotlight projects" (亮点工程) designed to attract the attention of higher-level leaders in municipalities and provinces. This outcome is not a failure of implementation but an unintended consequence of Xi's reforms. By broadening evaluation criteria while tightening fiscal and administrative constraints, the reforms changed how local officials compete for promotion. Instead of maximizing GDP growth, officials increasingly compete by producing politically visible success stories that signal competence and alignment with central priorities. Because these projects also enhance the political standing of provincial and municipal leaders, they are reinforced by complementary incentives at multiple levels of the bureaucracy. The result is not the disappearance of performative governance, but its transformation.
Topic:
Governance, Rural, Economic Development, Bureaucracy, and Local Government
Political Geography:
China and Asia

573. Europe’s “Wake-Up Call”

Author:
Philippe Le Corre
Publication Date:
07-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
The European Union's relationship with China is undergoing a transformation. While the EU remains committed to economic engagement, it is increasingly prioritizing economic security, industrial resilience, and technological sovereignty over market access. This shift reflects mounting concerns over widening trade imbalances, China's state-supported industrial expansion, growing dependence on Chinese critical minerals and green technologies, and the erosion of Europe's manufacturing base. This paper argues that the EU and China will go through a very tense period over trade, but that Europe’s lasting competitiveness will depend on addressing structural challenges—including productivity, innovation, energy costs, investment, and industrial coordination—that predate the current deterioration in EU-China relations. Ultimately, China's growing economic influence has become not only an external challenge but a catalyst for Europe's reassessment of its own economic model and long-term industrial strategy.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Innovation, Trade, and Economic Security
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

574. Strategic Shift in China's Primary Aluminum Industry

Author:
Landon Thomas
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
In late 2024, the Chinese government surprised global markets by rescinding export tax rebates for steel, copper, and – most notably – aluminum products. Seen by many as a proactive step to diffuse trade tensions with its major trading partners, this paper argues that the policy speaks to a broader strategy on the part of the Chinese government. Namely, to incentivize aluminum producers to focus less on exports and more on supplying fast growing sectors such as photovoltaics and electric vehicles, both of which rely heavily on aluminum inputs. Although aluminum exports have declined modestly since the policy’s implementation, it remains unclear whether increased domestic absorption will ultimately translate into greater productivity and efficiency gains across the sector.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, Economy, Tax Systems, Trade Policy, Industry, and Aluminum
Political Geography:
China and Asia

575. Implementing Effective U.S.-China Economic Engagement Channels

Author:
Brendan Kelly and Scott Shaw
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
As the state of U.S.-China relations has undergone significant fluctuations over the past decade, so has the structure and frequency of economic engagements between the two countries. The number and scale of such dialogues came under heavy criticism from Republican and Democratic China hawks alike—with one notable critic famously tying the rise of U.S.-China dialogues to the rise of the U.S. trade deficit with China. Some of this criticism misses the mark, however, and underestimates the value of select, well-conceived communication channels. A valid question is whether these dialogues lost the forest for the trees. U.S. officials consistently struggled to move the needle on big trade and investment issues, absent large carrots and sticks, such as WTO accession or significant tariffs. The U.S. government needs to exercise discipline in ensuring that dialogue mechanisms advance U.S. national interests and are not used by China to distract from or delay meaningful progress on core issues. Washington must also be clear-eyed that such dialogues or engagements will likely not “change China” or spur big policy and structural changes. Yet it is equally problematic that from the early stages of the pandemic in 2020 through mid-2023, the governments of the world’s two largest economies, with the world’s most complex trading relationship, had almost no engagement on economic and commercial issues. Just as national security experts emphasize the importance of U.S.-China military-to-military communications to mitigate misunderstandings and security crises, sustained channels for commercial and financial dialogues are critical for managing economic frictions. It is therefore remarkable that for multiple years the two sides lacked any such mechanisms to address commercial, financial and other economic issues. In its last year and a half, the Biden administration broadly addressed these areas through its Economic, Financial and Commercial Issues Working Groups, alongside technical consultations on issues such as export control enforcement, trade secrets, and anti-money laundering. These channels, with select cabinet-level meetings, enabled the U.S. to pursue “competitive actions”—such as export controls, tariffs, and sanctions—while maintaining a largely stable relationship. The Biden administration struggled, however, to make significant progress on the broader obstacles facing U.S. firms and exports in China, even as it was able to resolve certain company-specific issues and defuse some tensions arising from policy misunderstandings. After a sharp deterioration in bilateral economic ties in spring 2025—with tariffs essentially reaching trade embargo levels and export controls shutting down production lines in each economy—the second Trump administration has arrived at a tentative equilibrium with China on trade and technology issues. The Trump administration has an opportunity to strengthen this equilibrium, mitigate volatility, and advance U.S. interests by rebuilding and institutionalizing selective channels on key economic and technology issues. The goal should not be to return to the previous broad dialogue architecture, but rather to establish narrow mechanisms that support U.S. de-risking, reinforce policy discipline, and, with modest expectations, derive economic benefits for the U.S. from the relationship. Cabinet-level relationships with China’s top economic decisionmakers—that also address bureaucratic mismatches and silos in the two systems—are of utmost importance as the leadership dynamics and policy agendas of both governments continue to evolve. Communication mechanisms on macroeconomic, financial sector, and commercial issues have been essential—and as economic and national security issues have moved to the foreground, channels to discuss sanctions, export controls, and investment issues have become necessary as well. The Boards of Trade and Investment proposed by the two governments in recent discussions could serve as an organizing structure for most of these channels, depending on their participants and agenda. This paper reviews the historical evolution of U.S.-China economic dialogues and the key lessons learned—to suggest targeted areas where ongoing communications under these mechanisms can be most important, how these should be structured, and how to make U.S. economic statecraft toward China most effective. We appreciate the insightful inputs and comments on the paper from Craig Allen, Wendy Cutler and Paul Haenle.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, Economics, Bilateral Relations, Macroeconomics, Trade, Donald Trump, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

576. National Security Without Consensus: Taiwan’s Domestic Politics Through 2028

Author:
Simona Grano
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
In the past year, President Lai Ching-te’s administration has faced growing domestic political fragmentation alongside intensifying external pressure. Lai’s announcement of a substantial increase in Taiwan’s defense budget, including discussion of enhanced missile defense capabilities, was blocked repeatedly in the Legislative Yuan by the Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), highlighting deep divisions over security policy and relations with China. At the end of March 2026, Taiwan’s ruling and opposition parties finally agreed to allow the special defense budget to enter legislative review, though each party presented its own version.1 Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan finally passed a watered-down version of the special defense budget bill on May 8. While many observers frame expanded defense spending as a necessary response to rising external threats, resistance by the opposition reflects a set of politically salient concerns. Among segments of the electorate aligned with the KMT, skepticism persists regarding the effectiveness of increased spending in altering the cross-Strait military balance, frustration over the prolonged freeze in official dialogue with Beijing, and uncertainty linked to U.S. policy — ranging from delays in arms deliveries to broader questions surrounding strategic ambiguity and economic-security trade-offs. In this complicated context, President Lai launched a series of “Ten Talks” from June to August 2025, hoping to use national unity, defense, and identity to build public support for a more robust defense posture. However, rising parliamentary fragmentation and partisan polarization, heightened by the KMT’s shift in leadership and the election of Cheng Li-wun, have so far undercut the government’s ability to finance and implement major defense initiatives (including the proposed multi-layer T-Dome). Such domestic dynamics will play a central role in influencing Taiwan’s domestic and external strategy from now until the 2028 elections. Against this backdrop, the People’s Liberation Army decided to launch a large-scale joint exercise “Justice Mission–2025” on December 29, 2025, mobilizing forces and encircling Taiwan in one of the most wide-ranging displays of force so far employed by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The drills took place in the aftermath of Trump’s decision to allow a major arms sale to Taiwan and after the explicit Japanese statements linking a Taiwan contingency to Japan’s own security and survival. Beijing views such developments as external “intrusions” into internal matters with the potential to accelerate the ‘internationalization’ of the Taiwan issue. Together, these dynamics illustrate how China’s growing reliance on military pressure overlaps with Taiwan’s internal political constraints, reinforcing Beijing’s narrative that China’s military pressure is necessary and justified (in view of the external developments), while simultaneously undermining its claim that Taiwan remains a purely internal matter. This paper argues that Taiwan’s greatest security risk has shifted from threat awareness to political coordination, with domestic fragmentation now constituting the primary bottleneck to defense and security policies ahead of 2028.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Asia

577. Seeking Agency in Uncertainty: Asian Middle Powers and the Fragmenting Global Order

Author:
Farwa Aamer and Emma Chanlett-Avery
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
The concept of middle powers is not new. What is new, however, is the speed, coordination, and strategic intent with which middle powers, across Asia and the West, are recalibrating their foreign policies. This acceleration reflects growing uncertainty in the global system: the perceived drift and unpredictability of U.S. leadership under the Trump 2.0 administration, intensifying strategic competition between the United States and China, and the fragmentation of the post–Cold War order. Countries increasingly find themselves navigating between two systemic pressures: avoiding entrapment in great power rivalries and safeguarding national autonomy, economic resilience, and security interests. In this emerging order, resistant to simple bipolar or multipolar labels, middle powers are neither passive balancers nor quiet bystanders. They are actively constructing a dense network of partnerships, pursuing selective alignments, and diversifying strategic dependencies. Rather than choosing sides, many are hedging to secure national interests: deepening security ties with Washington while sustaining economic engagement with Beijing, expanding mini-lateral frameworks, and strengthening cross-regional linkages that reduce overreliance on any single pole of power. The growing emphasis on economic security, supply chain resilience, technological cooperation, and defense interoperability reflects a broader shift from ideological alignment to pragmatic, interest-driven statecraft. This paper revisits the concept of Asian middle power diplomacy and assesses the forces driving today’s intensified hedging behavior. It examines why urgency around partnerships and alliance diversification has increased, not only among key Asian middle powers themselves but also in their expanding engagement with actors such as the Gulf states, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the European Union. Through select country-by-country analysis, the paper evaluates how leading middle powers, in both Asia and beyond, are redefining strategic autonomy, which partnerships warrant close attention, and how these evolving alignments are reshaping the contours of the global order. Finally, it assesses the implications of a more assertive, networked middle power landscape for the United States, and what a strengthened middle power layering means for the future architecture of international politics.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Engagement, International Order, Hedging, and Middle Powers
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and United States of America

578. Positioning the KMT in the U.S.–China–Taiwan Triangle: Cheng Li-wun’s Early Tenure

Author:
Meghan Morris and Sheng-wen Cheng
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
In March 2026, Kuomintang (KMT) chair Cheng Li-wun (鄭麗文) accepted an invitation from Chinese President Xi Jinping to visit China from April 7–12—the first such visit by a sitting KMT chair since 2016. The visit presents both challenges and opportunities for Cheng, who is seeking greater dialogue and stability with China. It also comes just weeks before a scheduled major summit between President Trump and Xi in May and introduces new variables for all three leaders. For Xi, the symbolism of him and Cheng possibly meeting face-to-face to “mend fences” could portray an image of cross-Strait unity that could strengthen Xi’s hand in discussions with Trump. For Cheng, a successful China trip could bolster her political standing among the KMT base in Taiwan, but could also alienate opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) voters and swing voters, who may view Cheng as “selling out” Taiwan’s sovereignty in pursuit of easing tensions with mainland China. Finally, for Trump, the visit could complicate Washington’s relations with China. Trump will have to walk an even more delicate tightrope of signaling the United States’ enduring “One China” policy with Xi, while responding to the inevitable message from Xi that cross-Straits are “stabilizing” and that the United States should not intervene in the “internal matters of China.” Given this context, this paper seeks to examine the rise of Cheng Li-wun in Taiwanese politics and implications for her domestic, international, and cross-Strait agenda. We argue that while Cheng’s victory as KMT chair signals symbolic change, it has yet to translate into institutional renewal or political legitimacy. Her early appointments of KMT vice chairs suggest continuity rather than transformation—raising questions about whether the KMT is broadening or narrowing appeal within a younger electoral base. It also contends that Cheng’s rhetoric on China and the United States—calling for deeper alignment and accommodation with Beijing while simultaneously casting doubt on the value of Taiwan’s security ties with Washington—positions Cheng to potentially alter the trajectory of cross-Strait ties if the KMT achieves a majority victory in the 2028 presidential elections.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, National Security, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and United States of America

579. China’s Property Rebalancing: The Long Road to a New Development Model

Author:
Lizzi C. Lee and David Zhang
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
China’s property downturn is now in its fifth year, impairing household, developer, and local government balance sheets. Since peaking in 2021, property investment has nearly halved, dragging on fixed-asset investment, weakening related employment, and exerting a sustained drag on broader economic growth. Beijing’s response has prioritized risk containment over a return to debt-fueled property stimulus. This is captured by the “new property development model,” a long-term blueprint to turn real estate from a growth engine into a source of baseline construction demand and a more socially oriented housing system. Policymakers are currently trapped in a “dual mandate”: stabilizing the property market in the short term while pursuing a longer-term shift toward a smaller, less speculative, and more affordable housing system. In the near term, however, falling property values erode household wealth and weaken confidence, complicating Beijing’s broader consumption-rebalancing goals. The structural transition is complicated by local fiscal constraints. Revenue from selling land-use rights dropped by over 50% between 2021 and 2025, yet local governments face financial obligations to subsidize housing demand and fund the construction of new affordable housing. The most probable trajectory is a tightly managed, prolonged correction, with a true market bottom deferred. As the sector structurally downsizes, its drag on GDP should gradually fade, a cost Beijing likely sees as worth bearing in order to lock in a smaller role for property in the economy. The economy faces the severe downside risk of a deflationary spiral driven by wealth and job destruction. Further declines in home prices would deepen the hit to household balance sheets, while the property downturn is already inflicting significant job losses across construction and related sectors. China’s current transition blueprint lacks mechanisms to fully absorb this structural unemployment and balance-sheet degradation. Any definitive signs of an uncontrolled deflationary spiral would likely force Beijing to deploy stronger market rescue operations.
Topic:
Development, Government, Economy, Investment, Unemployment, and Property Market
Political Geography:
China and Asia

580. China’s Strategy in the Ukraine War and the Shaping of a Post-Conflict Order

Author:
Pierre Andrieu
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
Despite ongoing peace talks spearheaded by U.S. President Donald Trump, Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine continues with seemingly no end in sight. While China might not play a primary role in peace negotiations, it nonetheless has an important stake in the outcome of the conflict. This paper seeks to assess Beijing’s calculus and potential role in brokering peace in the Ukraine conflict within the context of great power diplomacy among Moscow, Washington, Kyiv, and Brussels. Faced with Russia’s unrelenting military campaign, Washington, Brussels and Beijing have each adopted distinct positions on the war. The United States, as the key peace broker, continues to shift its policies to accommodate competing peace deal demands from Kyiv and Moscow. Meanwhile, the EU is increasingly aligning itself with Ukraine’s position, while China promotes neutral diplomatic initiatives that merely amplify a pro-Russian stance. Because China’s initiatives largely align with Russia’s position on the war, they have done little to realistically support ceasefire efforts. Rather, they are designed to portray Beijing as a principled international actor committed to peace and non-escalation. At the same time, these positions have not prevented China from establishing significant and highly pragmatic relations with Kyiv, particularly in trade and commerce. Politically, however, China’s stance has distanced Beijing from Kyiv’s key objectives regarding the terms and conditions of a ceasefire. Accordingly, this article seeks to answer the following questions: What are China’s intentions toward Ukraine amid an ongoing stalemate in peace negotiations? And how are China’s diplomatic proposals being received in capitals around the world?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Negotiation, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine, and Asia

581. Unpacking China’s 2025 Retail Data: Provincial Divergence and Three Structural Challenges

Author:
Lizzi C. Lee, Huiyan Li, and Shengyu Wang
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
Despite overall lackluster growth, China’s 2025 retail data shows signs of a structural shift, a redistribution of domestic demand from the coastal to central and western regions, and from first-tier to lower-tier cities. Demographic structure and migration patterns shape consumption. Provinces with balanced age profiles and slower aging outperform other provinces, underscoring the role of demographic vitality in sustaining demand. Consumption upgrading is diffusing geographically but remains uneven. Higher-quality consumption and domestic brand strength are spreading beyond top-tier cities, yet purchasing power and innovation capacity remain concentrated in coastal hubs. Household income growth is a necessary foundation for stronger consumption, but not sufficient. The Beijing case — rising incomes alongside falling retail sales — shows how wealth effects can break the income-to-consumption link. The property sector remains the central structural drag. Although price declines have moderated in some regions, weak transaction volumes and uneven recovery sustain negative wealth effects. Local initiative and bureaucratic KPI design will shape the outcome. Subnational experimentation has generated promising cases for stimulating demand, but durable rebalancing depends on incentive reform. Rigid outcome-based targets risk distorting behavior and undermining the very reforms they seek to advance. A more household-driven growth model could gradually reduce export dependence and ease trade pressures. Yet current progress is limited and uneven. Core structural imbalances remain unresolved.
Topic:
Economy, Economic Growth, Retail, Consumer Behavior, Income, and Property Market
Political Geography:
China and Asia

582. Guided Autonomy: America Watching in Xi’s China

Author:
Guoguang Wu
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
U.S.–China relations have undergone significant changes in the past decade, moving from deep interdependence to strategic rivalry, and, meanwhile, China’s policy toward the United States has transformed under Xi Jinping. China’s policymaking mechanism has also evolved, and understanding this shift is critical to understanding the broader U.S.–China relationship. This article examines China’s U.S. policymaking and policy consultation system under Xi Jinping. How does policy consultation on foreign relations work in China? What are the most influential policy research institutions in China's America watch? How do they influence China's U.S. policy?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Xi Jinping, Strategic Competition, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

583. The Gen Z Movement and the Future of Nepa2026l

Author:
Rishi Gupta
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
Nepal is scheduled to hold snap elections on March 5, 2026, to elect members of the House of Representatives—the lower house of parliament —which will culminate in a new administration and a new Prime Minister. As election day draws closer, the country is experiencing a monumental challenge: choosing between a new generation of Nepalese politicians and an old guard that is seeking reelection. The forthcoming elections are certain to test Nepal’s 17-year-long democratic journey and could pave the way for a “New Nepal” grounded in the aspirations of the country’s youth. In September 2025, Nepal attracted global attention when the nation’s Generation Z population united to protest a government-imposed social media ban—a move that was widely viewed as an attack on freedom of expression, a disruption of free and open communication, and a threat to young people’s main source of financial earnings through online content creation. Besides the implications for digital connection, the ban brought to the fore larger frustrations among Nepalese youth with rampant nepotism, corruption, unemployment, and political instability in the country. As the protests gained strength, so did the Gen Z movement’s push for change, culminating in the resignation of Prime Minister K. P. Sharma Oli. These developments proved significant, as nowhere in the world had a social media ban prompted the fall of an elected government before. This paper unpacks Nepal’s historic Gen Z movement by understanding and assessing its drivers and their implications. It also provides a nuanced understanding of the movement’s contributions to Nepal’s relations with neighboring India and China. As a way forward, the paper presents several post-election scenarios and identifies four key challenges facing Nepal’s next government.
Topic:
Reform, Elections, Social Media, Protests, and Generation Z
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, India, and Nepal

584. AI Ambitions in a Thirsty Region: Water, Data Centers, and South Asia’s Digital Future

Author:
Farwa Aamer
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
South Asia’s push into artificial intelligence (AI) comes with both promise and pressure. In a region already facing chronic water stress, the rapid technological expansion and the rise of AI data centers risk adding new strain to limited resources if growth is not carefully managed. The challenge for South Asia is not whether to pursue AI-led development, but how to do so in a way that is sustainable over the long term. This paper argues that water must be treated as a central consideration in digital infrastructure planning. Practical steps are well within reach: adopting more water-efficient cooling technologies, siting data centers with local water conditions in mind, and better aligning energy and water policies to reduce overall resource use. At the same time, stronger regional cooperation on shared water systems and more meaningful engagement with local communities will all be essential to avoiding competition and conflict and ensuring more equitable outcomes. There is also an opportunity embedded in this challenge. AI itself can help improve water management, strengthen climate resilience, and support more efficient agricultural practices. With the right approach, technological advancement and environmental sustainability can reinforce, rather than undermine, one another.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Natural Resources, Water, Artificial Intelligence, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:
South Asia and Southeast Asia

585. What Happened at China's Two Sessions in 2026?2026

Author:
Neil Thomas, Lizzi C. Lee, and Lyle Morris
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
Last week, Beijing wrapped up its annual Two Sessions — the parallel meetings of China’s legislature, the National People’s Congress (NPC), and its top political advisory body, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC). Highlights of this year’s gathering included Premier Li Qiang’s Government Work Report, several closely watched appearances by President Xi Jinping, the removal of several officials from civilian posts and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) ahead of the meeting, and the release of China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP), a blueprint for the country’s development from 2026 to 2030. Below, experts from the Center for China Analysis (CCA) assess the key takeaways across several issue areas. Last week, CCA also co-hosted a webinar on the Two Sessions with the South China Morning Post featuring Lizzi C. Lee, Lyle Morris, and Neil Thomas.
Topic:
Government, Domestic Politics, Xi Jinping, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
Political Geography:
China and Asia

586. From Conflict Actors to Constitutional Guardians? Reassessing Security-Sector Governance Under the 2025 Tenth Amendment to the Constitution of Lesotho

Author:
Bokang Moshoeshoe
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
This article critically examines whether the 2025 Tenth Amendment to the Constitution of Lesotho constitutes a substantive transformation in the governance of national security institutions or merely a reconfiguration of entrenched power relations. Grounded in Lesotho’s history of political instability and recurrent security-sector involvement in governance, the study adopts a qualitative doctrinal and interpretive institutional approach. It analyses the extent to which the Amendment restructures authority, strengthens oversight and promotes the depoliticisation of coercive institutions. The article finds that while the Amendment introduces important procedural reforms – particularly in relation to appointments, oversight mechanisms and professional standards – it does not fundamentally alter the concentration of authority within the executive. Consequently, the reforms align with international and regional norms on democratic security-sector governance yet fall short of achieving meaningful structural transformation. Executive dominance continues to shape the incentives that historically enabled politicisation. The article argues that constitutional reform in this context operates within the limits of constitutional engineering: enhancing formal accountability without fully addressing underlying political dynamics. Nonetheless, the Amendment provides a framework that may, over time, support the gradual consolidation of constitutionalism and institutional neutrality.
Topic:
Security, Reform, Justice, Peacebuilding, and Constitutionalism
Political Geography:
Africa and Lesotho

587. Peace Dividends in Practice: How Local Peace Committees Foster Development and Stability in Zimbabwe’s Matabeleland

Author:
Munyayiwashee Shumba, Shadreck Khanye, and Vitalis Sibanda
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
This paper considers how community-led peace initiatives become drivers of economic development, infrastructure improvement and service delivery that are critical to peace and stability. It examines how grassroots peacebuilding, particularly through Local Peace Committees (LPCs) established by the Ecumenical Church Leaders Forum (ECLF), has contributed to post-conflict development and social stability in the Matabeleland region of Zimbabwe. The role of LPCs in facilitating community projects, restoring trust in leadership and promoting inclusive participation in development planning is assessed with the aim of contributing to the broader African debates on how locally driven development can anchor sustainable peace and stability, especially in the absence of strong state intervention. The paper draws on interviews with ECLF staff and community members from Matabeleland to assess how these efforts are creating tangible peace dividends and helping to stabilise a region marked by a history of unresolved conflict following the Gukurahundi atrocities and where a sense of neglect by central government is alive and well. The results show that LPCs are effective community structures that facilitate development by promoting social cohesion and that the strength of the LPCs lies in the fact that they are community-driven initiatives.
Topic:
Development, Justice, Post-Conflict, Peacebuilding, and Community Initiatives
Political Geography:
Africa, Zimbabwe, and Matabeleland

588. Strengthening Africa-Led Peacebuilding in Stabilisation Contexts

Author:
Andrew E. Yaw Tchie
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
While the primary responsibility of the United Nations (UN) is to secure global peace, it has continued to emphasise the importance of partnerships with regional organisations. Consequently, the UN tends to get involved only after a relative level of peace is established. Conversely, the wider international community looks to regional organisations such as the African Union (AU) to address peacebuilding matters. It suggests that the AU has a relative level of agency to play a pivotal role in supporting national bottom-up and localised bottom-up peacebuilding initiatives crucial to the overarching aims of peace and stability. However, peacebuilding efforts often take a backseat in persistent violent conflicts, with stabilisation efforts taking centre stage. The paper examines the AU’s peacebuilding efforts to address conflicts and argues that, while these efforts are welcomed, its peacebuilding efforts can maintain and strengthen existing social structures, resulting in peacebuilding becoming a source of tension that legitimises some actors over others. The paper suggests that the AU must re-evaluate how it approaches peacebuilding in complex stabilisation environments and calls for a peacebuilding framework that considers the interconnectedness within the context of stabilisation.
Topic:
African Union, Peacebuilding, Regional Organizations, and Stabilization
Political Geography:
Africa

589. The Exclusion of Women From Formal Peace Negotiations: The Case of Liberia

Author:
Everjoy Magwegwe and Prince Zimuto
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
This study critically examines the persistent exclusion of women from formal peace processes. Through an in-depth case study of Liberia’s peace negotiations and analysis of global peacebuilding literature, it challenges the assumption that women are excluded because they lack the capacity to meaningfully participate. The study reveals that even when women possess significant conflict-resolution experience and leadership skills, as evidenced by Liberian women’s instrumental role in ending the civil wars in their country, they remain relegated to observer status in formal negotiations. The research also demonstrates how patriarchal power structures systematically limit women’s participation despite their demonstrated peacebuilding competencies. The paper proposes concrete policy recommendations, including enforceable participation quotas and gender-sensitive peacebuilding guidelines, to transform symbolic inclusion into substantive participation.
Topic:
Women, Negotiation, Exclusion, Peacebuilding, and Gender
Political Geography:
Africa and Liberia

590. Through Youth Lenses: Reflections on the Impact of the Continental Framework for Youth, Peace and Security in Africa

Author:
Mpule Kgetsi
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Before the global recognition of the Youth, Peace and Security (YPS) agenda through the United Nations (UN) Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 2250, Africa had already begun laying the groundwork through the African Youth Charter. Article 17 of the Charter, which provides for Peace and Security, when read in conjunction with provisions such as Article 11 on youth participation, establishes a clear normative foundation for integrating young people into peace and decision-making processes. Yet, despite its progressive content, the limited implementation of the Charter by the African Union (AU) and its member states relegated it to the margins of global peace and security practice. This article contends that while YPS frameworks have generated momentum for the adoption of the YPS agenda, progress in implementation remains slow, resulting in limited impact. The adoption of the Continental Framework for Youth, Peace and Security (CFYPS), along with its ten-year implementation plan, offered an opportunity to address the implementation gaps of the Charter and fulfil Africa’s long-overdue commitments to YPS. Inspired by UNSCR 2250, the framework also incorporates elements of the African Peace and Security Architecture, thereby placing the YPS agenda within key continental policy frameworks. The analysis that follows examines whether the CFYPS has substantially addressed the needs of Africa’s young peacebuilders. This approach allows for a critical evaluation of both the framework’s promises and its practical impact in translating policy into lived realities. The article will assess the extent to which the CFYPS has fulfilled its promises and will evaluate its contributions to peacebuilding and youth empowerment. In doing so, it aims to determine not only the framework’s policy relevance but also its practical impact on the lives of young Africans. Before the implementation of these frameworks, various studies existed that illustrated that the needs of young people did not always align with policy assumptions.
Topic:
Security, Youth, Peace, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Africa

591. Digital Dissent and Democratic Deepening: How Youth-led Protests are Reshaping Governance Accountability in Francophone West Africa

Author:
Chefor Ngwenyi Meungwe
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Between 2021 and 2025, Francophone West Africa witnessed a surge in youth-led protest movements that challenged the region’s governance architecture. From Senegal’s Y’en a Marre movement resurgence to citizen uprisings against constitutional manipulation in Guinea and Burkina Faso, young Africans deployed innovative strategies combining digital mobilisation with traditional street activism to demand accountability, democratic consolidation, and economic opportunity.1 These movements represent more than episodic resistance; they signal a generational shift in how political legitimacy is contested and negotiated across the region.2 This article examines the structural drivers, tactical innovations, and governance implications of youth protests in Francophone West Africa, with particular attention to Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Senegal. Drawing on recent protest cycles, it argues that youth movements have created new accountability mechanisms that operate outside and often in tension with formal democratic institutions. Understanding this dynamic is essential for policymakers seeking sustainable pathways towards inclusive governance in a region where 60% of the population is under 25 years old.
Topic:
Governance, Youth, Protests, Accountability, and Dissent
Political Geography:
Africa and West Africa

592. Digital infrastructure in South Asia: China’s role and the potential for Australia–India cooperation

Author:
Shruti Jargad
Publication Date:
08-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
Digital infrastructure development in South Asia is gathering pace. It is central not only to economic growth and public service delivery, but also to national and regional security as well as geopolitical competition, particularly between China and India. China has emerged as a significant supplier of digital infrastructure and technology across the region. Through the Digital Silk Road, Chinese entities have become deeply embedded across South Asia’s digital ecosystem, spanning telecommunications, fibre-optic networks, submarine cables, data centres, cloud services, smart cities, surveillance technologies, digital payments and e-commerce. While Chinese investment has helped accelerate connectivity and digital development, it has also created long-term risks like technological dependence, vendor lock-in, unsustainable financing, poor transparency, threats to cybersecurity and strategic autonomy. This report argues that the central challenge for South Asian states is not Chinese involvement in itself, but it is the combination of limited alternatives and weak institutional capacity to address the long-term risks and threats mentioned above. It examines China’s digital engagements across the region, including in strategic locations, maps its presence across different layers of the digital ecosystem and assesses the implications. The report also explores how Australia and India can support more resilient and inclusive digital development in South Asia, despite structural limitations. India brings extensive experience in deploying digital public infrastructure at scale, while Australia offers expertise in e-governance, cybersecurity, infrastructure financing, institutional capacity building and regulatory cooperation. Rather than advocating decoupling from Chinese technology, the report proposes a pragmatic approach centred on diversification, local ownership and institutional resilience. It identifies practical avenues for Australia–India cooperation, including facilitating international financing, digital public infrastructure, sharing governance experience, human capital development, private-sector investment and leveraging regional and multilateral partnerships. By broadening the range of credible partners and strengthening institutional capacity, Australia and India can help ensure that South Asia’s digital transformation is secure, sustainable and responsive to the priorities of regional states.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Cybersecurity, Artificial Intelligence, Emerging Technology, Information Technology, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, India, and Asia-Pacific

593. Synergies for the future: Australia–South Korea pathways in strategic defence technology cooperation

Author:
Yeonsoo Kim
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
Australia and the Republic of Korea face an increasingly complex Indo-Pacific security environment in which technological competition, industrial resilience and the ability to sustain advanced military capability have become central to national security. While both countries maintain strong alliance relationships with the United States, evolving Indo-Pacific dynamics increasingly encourage cooperation among technologically capable regional powers able to complement national strengths and address structural constraints. In this context, Australia and South Korea enter the coming decade with increasingly aligned strategic outlooks, anchored in a shared commitment to preserving regional stability. Over the past decade, Australia and South Korea have strengthened their bilateral engagement, with the relationship elevated to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in 2021. Defence-industrial cooperation has produced tangible outcomes, including Australia’s acquisition of the South Korean-designed AS21 Redback infantry fighting vehicle. However, cooperation in advanced defence technology development remains largely program-specific rather than institutionalised, reflecting a gap between political ambition and practical collaboration. This report argues that deeper defence-technology cooperation between Australia and South Korea represents a practical response to respective national constraints. South Korea possesses rapid development cycles and scalable manufacturing capacity but faces limitations on large-scale experimentation. Australia benefits from expansive test and evaluation environments and integration within allied innovation networks but faces challenges related to industrial scale and workforce capacity. Together, those characteristics create opportunities for cooperation across the capability life cycle—from research and prototyping to testing and validation. The report identifies realistic pathways for incremental cooperation, including between national defence innovation programs. It concludes with recommendations to institutionalise defence technology cooperation between Australia and South Korea. By transitioning from program-specific deals to institutionalised cooperation, Australia and South Korea can build a more resilient defence-industrial ecosystem and enhance collective deterrence in the Indo-Pacific.
Topic:
Defense Policy, International Cooperation, Science and Technology, Armed Forces, Artificial Intelligence, and Research and Development
Political Geography:
South Korea, Australia, and Asia-Pacific

594. Polar security: Strategic competition at the ends of the Earth

Author:
Elizabeth Buchanan
Publication Date:
07-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
The Arctic and Antarctica were strategic theatres in which the Cold War played out, but they were also regions in which concerted efforts were made to bring together the rival superpowers. The polar regions became beacons of global cooperation, Cold War East-West dialogue and best practice statecraft. Today, the polar regions host new ‘players’ or stakeholders and are shaped by increasingly novel forces. The dynamics at the ends of the earth have clearly changed, and the fragile status-quo born from our Cold War system of managing state power (and ambitions) is incredibly brittle. Our polar regions require a modernised system or framework to manage strategic competition, to facilitate the ebbs and flows of geopolitics: the organic state of play between powers. Canberra has enduring, albeit under recognised, national security interests in the polar domains. Australia’s strategic interests in the polar regions will only be protected through enhanced physical presence, deeper security partnerships, and credible investment in deterrent capabilities. Blind faith in liberal institutionalism is no longer an option; indeed, as this report argues, this approach increasingly appears to sustain competitor national interests at the expense of our own. In the Arctic and Antarctica, Canberra confronts a more assertive, and broadly revisionist, strategic climate. Business as usual at either end of the earth will not suffice in this new normal. We need a more holistic approach. With fragmentation and erosion of the specific governance forums and systems in place in the polar regions, it is crucial Canberra leads middle power stakeholders in mounting a collective stand to salvage and ideally, modernise the status quo for Antarctica and the Arctic. Resource insecurity, renewed strategic competition, and environmental change are converging at the poles, determining the future of the Arctic and Antarctica and this Report illustrates why this trinity matters for Canberra.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, Cold War, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Russia, Japan, China, South Korea, Asia-Pacific, Arctic, United States of America, and Antarctica

595. Exploring the Ideology of Pan-Africanism and Operation Dudula in South Africa’s Political Landscape: Youth Activism in an Era of Xenophobia

Author:
Melody Mbwadzawo Siangombe
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Youth activism has long played a transformative role in Africa’s socio-political history, from anti-colonial struggles to democratic reform movements. It is through activism that the youth express feelings, impede and interfere in social, political, economic and environmental reforms in society for change to happen. These contemporary youth-led movements can shape national debates, yet they also grapple with complex social dynamics, including unemployment, inequality and political marginalisation. In South Africa, youth activism has been a defining force in the country’s history, evolving from a key pillar of the anti-apartheid struggle to a critical movement challenging post-apartheid failures in democracy, governance and socio-economic equity. Operation Dudula has emerged as a movement that seeks to address unemployment and perceived threats from foreign nationals through organised protests, often with a xenophobic tone.1 This paper situates Operation Dudula within the broader framework of pan-Africanism, a political and ideological philosophy that emphasises African unity, solidarity and collective self-reliance. By examining Operation Dudula’s ideology, strategies and impacts, this paper seeks to illuminate the intersection of youth activism, nationalism and xenophobia, and to explore avenues for constructive engagement that align with broader African ideals.
Topic:
Youth, Xenophobia, Pan-Africanism, and Activism
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

596. Northern Australia’s strategic operating system: Industry, infrastructure and national resilience

Author:
Sally Henderson
Publication Date:
07-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
Northern Australia has become a nationally significant strategic operating environment. Its industrial continuity, infrastructure resilience and sovereign capability directly shape Australia’s ability to withstand coercion, disruption and strategic competition. The region sits at the centre of Australia’s economic strength and strategic posture. It underpins nationally significant industries, sustains regional communities and supports the infrastructure, workforce and supply chains that enable Australia’s economic security and strategic endurance. Yet national policy has not consistently reinforced the fiscal, regulatory and reinvestment settings needed to convert that industrial strength into enduring regional and national resilience. As Australia’s strategic environment becomes increasingly contested and climate shocks, supply-chain disruption and geopolitical shocks intensify, resilience in the north can no longer be viewed as a regional development issue. It is a national security imperative. Drawing on current policy, industry experience and examples from across northern Australia, Northern Australia’s strategic operating system: Industry, infrastructure and national resilience examines how long-dated industries, resilient infrastructure, skilled workforces and stable policy settings sustain communities, supply chains and sovereign capability. It argues that resilience cannot rest on episodic investment or periodic policy resets. Instead, it must be built through continuity. The report identifies structural weaknesses that limit northern Australia’s long-term resilience, including concentrated infrastructure corridors, housing and workforce constraints, fragmented regulation, and the inconsistent reinvestment of revenues generated in the north into the infrastructure, services and systems that sustain regional communities. The report provides practical recommendations for governments and industry to strengthen fiscal certainty, streamline regulation, invest in resilient transport, energy, water and communications infrastructure, strengthen local value capture, First Nations economic participation and sovereign workforce capability, and increase reinvestment in northern Australia’s infrastructure, services and communities. By shifting the focus from individual projects to the resilience of the broader operating system, the report offers a practical framework for strengthening Australia’s national resilience through a stronger, more resilient north.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Strategic Competition, Industry, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Australia

597. Historicising Youth and Peacebuilding in the Niger Delta

Author:
Emmanuella Chidimma Egejuru and Oladoyo Bode Akanbi
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
The Niger Delta region of Nigeria presents a unique case study for understanding how youth populations transition from conflict perpetuation to peacebuilding across different historical periods. This oil-rich area, comprising nine states, including Rivers, Bayelsa, Delta, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Edo, Ondo, Abia, and Imo, occupies approximately 70 000 square kilometres of ecologically significant territory.1 The region houses over 500 densely populated rural ethnic minority communities, each with distinct historical experiences of resource extraction, environmental degradation and political marginalisation. Understanding youth involvement in peacebuilding requires examining how this role has evolved through distinct historical phases, from pre-colonial communal governance systems to colonial exploitation, post-independence oil discovery, militant uprising, and contemporary peace initiatives. This historical approach reveals that youth engagement in peace processes is not a recent phenomenon but rather reflects changing political economies, governance structures, and international frameworks across different periods. By tracing this evolution, we can better understand current challenges and identify sustainable pathways for youth-centred peace consolidation.
Topic:
History, Youth, Conflict, Engagement, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Africa, Nigeria, and Niger Delta

598. From the old world to the new: Why German rearmament matters for Australia

Author:
Carl Janz
Publication Date:
07-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
When then chancellor of Germany Olaf Scholz delivered the famous Zeitenwende (epochal shift) speech outlining the urgent need for change in defence and security policy as a response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, he presided over a military that reportedly struggled to participate in even basic NATO operations. Today by contrast, Germany is the world’s fourth largest military spender and has committed to military and industrial uplift with zeal. This ASPI Explainer explores the factors driving Germany’s rearmament, its implications for Australia, potential barriers to implementation, and transferable takeaways. It concludes that Germany’s rearmament efforts are set to make the country an increasingly valuable global partner for Australia as the two countries pursue a Status of Forces Agreement. If successfully executed in tandem with its European partners, German rearmament will help establish an increasingly independent European liberal-democratic pole in global politics and will allow the United States to increase its focus on the Indo-Pacific. These developments support Australian interests.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, Russia-Ukraine War, and Rearmament
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Germany, Australia, and United States of America

599. Social insecurity: Cohesion, outrage economics and national resilience in Australia

Author:
John Coyne and Justin Bassi
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
A new report from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute warns Australia’s social cohesion is under sustained pressure, with the Bondi Beach terrorist attack, the 7 October 2023 attacks on Israel and Covid‐19 acting as accelerants, intensifying pre-existing fractures in trust, legitimacy and public debate. In ‘Social insecurity: Cohesion, outrage economics and national resilience in Australia’, Dr John Coyne and Justin Bassi find that online outrage, declining trust and foreign interference are no longer abstract social concerns — they are core national resilience challenges. It argues that social cohesion should be treated as a core pillar of national security, aligning leadership, policing, education, regulation and community investment around three objectives: protecting freedom while maintaining order; enabling disagreement without disorder; and rebuilding a shared sense of belonging.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Intelligence, National Security, Counter-terrorism, and Police
Political Geography:
Australia

600. Lethal humidity and the systemic risks of climate change

Author:
Robert Glasser
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
One of the great challenges in understanding the extraordinary consequences of global warming is our tendency to think in silos. Climate change is still often regarded as solely an environmental issue—and is generally coordinated in governments by environment ministries—rather than as a systemic crisis that affects every aspect of society. That same tendency helps to explain why the rising threat of lethal humidity, which is a combination of extreme heat and high humidity that can exceed the limits of human survival, has been overlooked until relatively recently. Climate change is not only warming the planet but also increasing humidity, because warmer air holds more moisture. The role of climate change in amplifying extreme heat and heatwaves has been widely studied, but only recently have the implications of its combination with high humidity been well understood. High humidity significantly lowers the temperature at which severe human health impacts occur. The synergistic and accelerating effect of high temperature and high humidity is rapidly moving large, densely populated regions of the planet towards the limits of physiological survivability. This report uses ‘lethal humidity’ as a focal concept but focuses primarily on the broad category of extreme humid-heat events that are increasingly approaching, and in some regions exceeding, that threshold. It focuses on the rising threat posed by extreme humid heat, both as a stand-alone climate hazard and as part of a more complex pattern of interconnected hazards intensified by climate change. It highlights the accelerating impacts of extreme humid-heat occurrences and how they’ll both amplify and be amplified by other climate-related events happening simultaneously or consecutively. The report’s main objective is to show that those impacts aren’t isolated: they cascade through societies, magnified by other climate hazards, such as storms and flooding. The first section examines how humid-heat hazards have evolved in frequency and intensity and surveys the societal impacts of three historical humid heatwaves: Chicago (1995), South Asia (2015), and Brazil (2023). It identifies common themes across the three cases, focusing particularly on key cascading societal consequences. The second section explains how rapidly climate change is causing humid-heat extremes to reach and surpass lethal humidity thresholds. It identifies six defining features of climate change that shape what societies can expect from extreme events such as humid heatwaves. It also summarises climate modelling projections of humid-heat extremes and how they may be compounded by other climate hazards emerging simultaneously. The third section focuses on Indonesia, one of the most geopolitically important and rapidly developing countries in the Indo-Pacific, where extreme humid heat will rapidly become a defining climate risk. Over the past decade, Indonesia has risen into the top five nations globally for exposure to heatwave days. The section also illustrates how humid-heat extremes may reach lethal humidity levels in future and interact with other climate hazards, such as flooding, drought, sea-level rise and energy-system stress, creating major cascading societal disruptions in the country. The final section summarises the main findings and identifies key policy and research priorities to address the growing likelihood that humid-heat extremes will surpass lethal humidity thresholds, with severe consequences for humanity. It notes that each new decade will expose many tens of millions of additional people to deadly humid-heat extremes. As much as 50%–75% of the global population will be exposed by late this century. That dire trajectory elevates lethal humidity from a high-impact risk to a systemic global threat, requiring rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and decisive policy responses. The Lethal Humidity Global Council identifies four urgent and necessary shifts: Achieving real zero emissions through complete fossil-fuel phase-out and renewable replacement. Removing barriers to green industry, including fossil-fuel subsidies, before 2030. Matching incentives and disincentives to risk through carbon pricing. Using economic stimulants to drive green growth and transformation. While those shifts are essential to limit future risk, they can’t fully avert the impacts already set in motion. Accordingly, this report recommends the following additional measures to improve understanding of lethal humidity and to prepare societies for accelerating impacts, many of which are now unavoidable following decades of inadequate climate action.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Climate Change, National Security, Public Health, Heat, and Humidity
Political Geography:
Asia-Pacific