Publication Year: within 1 Year and within 25 Years

2851. The European Radical Right in the Age of Trump 2.0

Author:: Rosa Balfour, Stefan Lehne, and Elena Ventura
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January 2025 seemed to herald a revolutionary new era that would reshape not only the United States but also European politics and culture.1 The breathtaking speed and depth with which the second Trump presidency has changed U.S. domestic and foreign policy is reminiscent of former Chinese leader Mao Zedong’s Cultural Revolution and has caused frantic adaptation across the globe.2 U.S. action in geopolitical theaters that are central to Europe’s security and Washington’s triggering of a global trade war are immensely consequential for Europe. U.S. policy is revealing the ideological detail of the American radical right as it undergoes some solidification and builds an international network in which Europe plays a key role. Europe is high on the agenda of the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement. Yet, however emboldened the European radical right may feel, and despite growing transatlantic linkages, events of the past year suggest that the continent’s own dynamics and challenges remain the main drivers that shape Europe’s political and policy choices. The European radical right has had some electoral successes but continues to struggle to turn that achievement into action, as it is divided in the European Union (EU) institutions and inconsistent on policy. The primary factor in the radical right’s success is the failure of mainstream politics to find effective responses to political challenges. In April 2024, Carnegie Europe published a report on the foreign policies of the fourteen most significant European radical-right parties and their impact on the EU.3 Now, one year into the EU’s 2024–2029 institutional term, this paper asks: With Trump in the White House, can the radical right—in the words of Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán—“conquer” Europe?4 In fact, the Trump effect on the radical right is more nuanced than is usually assumed. Signals of both empowerment and distance are visible. While the radical right’s electorate is more drawn to Trump in his second term than in his first, most Europeans continue to be skeptical of him, making radical-right parties cautious in their embrace of Trumpism. After all, the Trump administration’s outright anti-EU policies affect radical-right electorates, too. The radical right is as consequential as centrist parties, leaders, and institutions allow it to be. Fears that the radical right with Trump’s support will destroy the EU seem overblown in the short term. However, the right could well be capable of blocking and delaying reforms that are necessary to confront the EU’s current and future challenges. Rather than conquering Europe, the radical right seems set on preventing the EU from becoming what it needs to become.
Topic:: European Union, Donald Trump, Political Parties, Radical Right, Right-Wing Politics, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

2852. Legacy or Liability? Auditing U.S. Alliances to Compete with China

Author:: Christopher S. Chivvis, Kristin Zhu, Beatrix Geaghan-Breiner, Maeve Sockwell, Lauren Morganbesser, and Senkai Hsia
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Allies are essential to U.S. strategic competition with China but carry costs and risks that require continuous, realistic management. Polarization in Washington has unfortunately impeded the correct approach: critics on the right are too narrowly focused on military power while advocates on the left underplay the real costs and risks involved in U.S. defense commitments. Across the political spectrum, experts are now calling on allies to shoulder more of the burden for security in the Indo-Pacific. This is positive, but plans to deepen U.S. alliances also need to weigh allied political will and the danger of being drawn into conflicts that do not serve vital U.S. interests. This report inventories these costs and benefits for seven key alliances across eight core areas of U.S.-China strategic competition. We conclude that: Japan can further U.S. aims with China across all eight categories, especially as its defense spending increases. It is willing to cooperate in several key areas and poses low risk of entanglement. Australia can make contributions at a more modest level. Political will to cooperate with the United States has increased but is not steady. Risk of entanglement is low. South Korea is reluctant to use its economic and military power to counter China but poses a substantial military burden and risk on the United States. Chip manufacturing and other nonmilitary capabilities help strengthen the case for the alliance. Key European allies—France, Germany, and the UK—will have a limited military role in the Indo-Pacific, but can support important technological, diplomatic, and political objectives of U.S. China strategy. The Philippines has advantageous military geography—but lacks other benefits and poses an entanglement risk in the South China Sea. We stress that if Washington consistently pursues a statecraft that undermines allied trust in the United States, allied leaders will not support U.S. global objectives, weakening America’s hand in competition with China. Some recent U.S. policies, such as the Trump administration’s broad tariffs, appear to have eroded trust. The United States does not need a revolution in its alliances, which remain a source of strength for America at a time when U.S. power is under strain globally. But Washington does need to move with greater caution when deepening them. Ensuring alliances serve the needs of American citizens at a time when the world is in flux will require realism, periodic reassessment, and continuous adaptation.
Topic:: Alliance, Strategic Competition, Polarization, Statecraft, and Great Powers
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Europe, Asia, South Korea, Philippines, Australia, North America, and United States of America

2853. Regime Change and Minority Risks: Syrian Alawites After Assad

Author:: Adam Fefer
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Syria’s prospects for improved security and solidarity after the fall of former president Bashar al-Assad remain uncertain, though there are grounds for optimism, including histories of religious coexistence and the multifaceted nature of Syrian identities. The long-term success of Syria’s regime change will depend on the transitional government’s ability and willingness to forge a shared national identity and to protect the rights of minorities, including those regarded as Assad loyalists. However, its unclear commitment to these goals generates considerable uncertainty for Alawites and other vulnerable groups. The security and political inclusion of Alawites will be critical for fostering stable, multiethnic governance in the Levant. To this end, this paper outlines risks facing Syrian Alawites. Taking a comparative and historical approach, it emphasizes the compounded nature of these risks due to years of war and decades of minority rule. It groups the risks under two themes: (1) insecurity, driven not only by fragile and predatory security forces but also by Alawites’ historical ties to the Assad regime and their demographic vulnerabilities, and (2) polarization, fueled by mass grievances and the paucity of strong, moderate organizations, among other factors. Syria’s civil war both deepened insecurity and polarized much of society along sectarian lines. Meanwhile, Alawites are perceived as the enforcers of an extremely repressive regime, making them the target of reprisals.
Topic:: Regime Change, Minorities, Syrian War, Pluralism, and Alawites
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

2854. Leveraging the competencies of people and non-system entities during disaster and rescue operations

Author:: Robert Piec, Antoni Morawski, and Mateusz Banaś
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: A disaster is an event that has a negative impact on people and the environment on such a scale that its effects cannot be controlled by the resources of the local community. Managing rescue operations during disasters and major accidents is a major challenge due to their complexity. A flexible and effective rescue system is essential to minimise the effects of a disaster. Based on considerations regarding the complexity of rescue systems, analyses of scientific articles, legal acts, documents of authorities responsible for crisis management and press reports, the research problem can be formulated as follows: whether or how the use of non-system competences during rescue operations will affect the effectiveness of the crisis management process when rescuing people or the environment. The Key Performance Indicators method was used to evaluate rescue operations. The analysis shows that non-systemic competences had a significant impact on improving the effectiveness of rescue operations, particularly in terms of response time and coordination. The greater the support from international experts, non-governmental organisations and technology, the better the results in terms of flexibility, safety and availability of resources.
Topic:: Security, Disaster Relief, Search and Rescue, and Resource Operations
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2855. Natural Resources, Global Power Relations, and Economic Development: Insights from Mongolia

Author:: Tomasz Legiędź
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: This article explores the resource curse phenomenon in the Global South, using Mongolia as an example. Mainstream economists and international financial institutions typically attribute the failure to convert resource wealth into prosperity to domestic institutional deficiencies, such as corruption and a weak rule of law. This study challenges this dominant institutional approach by shifting the analytical focus from local pathologies to the transnational context. Drawing on Critical Political Economy, specifically the Murdoch School, it argues that the regulatory frameworks governing mining, often referred to as ‘modes of governance’, are frequently products of global relations of power. These frameworks are designed to align with the accumulation strategies of foreign investors rather than national development goals. The article begins by reviewing the literature on the relationship between natural resource abundance and economic growth. Second, it interrogates the prevailing governance models by highlighting the structural asymmetries and power dynamics that shape extractive industries. Finally, the empirical analysis of Mongolia demonstrates how external pressure, debt dependency, and the imposition of neoliberal norms constrain state sovereignty. Ultimately, the paper concludes that ‘good governance’ reforms can perpetuate an ‘institutional trap,’ facilitating the extraction of surplus by foreign actors while limiting the developmental capacity of resource-rich nations.
Topic:: Political Economy, Institutions, Mining, Economic Development, and Industry
Political Geography:: Mongolia and Asia

2856. The Russian Orthodox Church as an Instrument of Kremlin Influence and a Factor of Destabilisation in Ukraine

Author:: Valentyna Hodlevska
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: This article investigates the role of the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) and its Ukrainian branch—the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate (UOC-MP)—as instruments of Russian political influence and destabilization in Ukraine. The study focuses on the UOC-MP’s ideological alignment with the Kremlin and its impact on Ukrainian national security, especially in the context of Russia’s ongoing aggression. Employing a qualitative analysis of official church statements, government documents, legislative acts, and media reports , the research traces the evolving relationship between the UOC-MP and the ROC, including the effects of the 2018 Tomos of Autocephaly and the aftermath of the 2022 full-scale invasion. The findings demonstrate that despite a formal declaration of separation from the ROC, the UOC-MP continued to maintain institutional and ideological ties with Moscow, leading to increased societal distrust and state intervention. The culmination of this process was the 2024 ban on the ROC and its affiliates in Ukraine, which signaled a decisive move toward religious sovereignty and the consolidation of an independent Ukrainian Orthodoxy.
Topic:: Sovereignty, Ideology, Destabilization, Russia-Ukraine War, Russian Orthodox Church, Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate, and Orthodox Church of Ukraine
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, and Ukraine

2857. Investment in the Heart of Europe: What Shapes FDI in the Visegrad Countries?

Author:: Andrzej Geise, Małgorzata Jaworek, and Magdalena Kuczmarska
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: This study investigates the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Visegrad Group (V4) countries, focusing on the changing relevance of cost-, market-, and institutional-related factors. The analysis employs a panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (P-ARDL) model and panel Granger causality tests to examine both the long-run and short-run relationships between FDI and a set of macroeconomic, and institutionalrelated variables. The dataset covers the V4 countries over a time span between 1996 and 2023 and captures both permanent and transitory changes in determinants of FDI. The results show that in the long-run, average wage levels and government effectiveness are significant structural determinants, highlighting the importance of institutional quality and labour costs in FDI location decisions. In the short term, FDI inwards are mainly influenced by GDP growth, R&D expenditure, trade openness, and inflation dynamics. The results indicating the significance of factors determining FDI in the Visegrad Group countries may be of particular importance for policymakers seeking to enhance investment attractiveness in a globally unstable economic environment.
Topic:: Economics, Foreign Direct Investment, and Visegrad Group
Political Geography:: Europe

2858. Corruption in the Republic of Poland and Combating Iit in 2018–2022. Introduction

Author:: Szczepan Stempiński and Jarosław Kopyto
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: The phenomenon of corruption – accompanying dynamic economic development – is one of the most socially acute threats. It consists of both normative, organizational and also functional factors. Market demand for certain goods and services also plays an important role in the dynamics of this phenomenon. In this article, the authors used both a qualitative method (analyzing normative and regulatory acts) and a quantitative method (data contained in CBA source materials in 2018-2022). The working hypothesis established assumes that the area most vulnerable to the phenomenon of corruption in the RP is public administration, especially local government administration. Its verification was possible thanks to the identification of the main areas of corruption and the methods established to combat it, particularly in the context of the implementation of the Government Anti-Corruption Program for 2018-2020. In addition, data from Transparency International, the CBA, the Police, the Internal Security Agency and other services were also used. The article, which is the authors’ critical approach to the phenomenon of corruption, also touches on ethical aspects whose observance should be an established corporate standard.
Topic:: Corruption, Economic Development, and Public Administration
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

2859. Fighting corruption in the Border Guard. Poland’s experience in the context of the EU and Schengen Agreement accession

Author:: Agnieszka Lipska-Sondecka, Monika Lipiec-Karwowska, and Wojciech Pempko
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: This paper examines Poland’s approach to combating corruption within the Border Guard before and during its accession to the European Union and Schengen Area. The study is motivated by the critical role of anti-corruption measures in meeting EU membership requirements, especially regarding the uniformed services. The main objective is to analyze the process and outcomes of anti-corruption reforms in the Polish Border Guard as both a direct result of accession negotiations and a necessary step for joining Schengen in 2007. The central research question addresses how legal and institutional changes influenced the effectiveness of anti-corruption efforts in this period. The study employs analysis of EU and national legislation, review of Border Guard internal reports and strategies, and literature review as its primary methods. The findings indicate that, due to limited EU oversight, candidate countries – including Poland – developed their own frameworks for tackling corruption, leading to substantial progress within the Border Guard during the accession process.
Topic:: Corruption, European Union, Borders, and Schengen Agreement
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

2860. A recipe for longevity? Multi-tenure of provincial marshals as an example of a sustainable actor in a changing party system

Author:: Dawid Pieniężny
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: The Polish party system has undergone many significant transformations in the 21st century. Despite this fact, at the highest level of local government it is possible to observe marshals of voivodships, who should be regarded as a durable actor, holding their position for many years. The aim of this text is to verify the assumption that the multicadency of provincial marshals depended on the ability to create a strong political base, the durability of local power conditions, and the adaptability of the marshals themselves – especially in the changing environment of the party system. The conclusions drawn from these considerations indicate that ‘eternal marshals’ are not only an example of a stable political entity in the changing conditions of the party system, but above all an effective ‘regional manager’ distinguished by a range of adaptive, negotiating and managerial skills, with strong ties to the local community and enjoying significant social and political support.
Topic:: Politics, Political Parties, and Local Government
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

2861. Feminist Foreign Policy in Selected European Countries. Lessons and Best Practices for Ukraine

Author:: Oksana Voytyuk and Karolina Ferreira Fernandes
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: Feminist foreign policy (FFP) is a state policy whose main goal is to promote gender equality, women’s rights and interests, marginalized social groups and eliminate colonial, racist, patriarchal male-dominated structures. The article presents the main principles of the feminist foreign policy (FFP) of Sweden, France, Spain, and Germany, and discusses Ukraine’s actions in this regard. Special attention is given to Ukraine’s future FFP strategy in the context of the ongoing war. The methods employed in this study include analysis of reports and interviews and speeches available online, document analysis, comparison, synthesis, and a systemic approach to FFP, allowing for a comprehensive assessment of current actions and the prospects for the development of Ukraine’s feminist foreign policy considering the evolving wartime reality
Topic:: Foreign Policy, War, Women, and Feminism
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, France, Germany, Spain, and Sweden

2862. Lithuania through the eyes of Ukrainian war refugees

Author:: Giedrė Barkauskaitė
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: This article aims to discuss the specificities of Lithuania as reflected in the narratives of war refugees from Ukraine. The respondents for this research are women aged 30-47 from various Ukrainian cities. These Ukrainian women have to deal with more than just issues of accommodation and employment, or domestic routine. When settling in a new place, the differences and specificities of the host country, or, by contrast, its similarities to one’s country of origin become apparent. The aim of this research was to collect observations by Ukrainian refugees that identify what is specific to Lithuania.
Topic:: Women, Refugees, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, and Lithuania

2863. Green Capitalism in the Americas: False Solutions, Real Threats

Author:: Sabrina Fernandes and Breno Bringel
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: In this special issue of the NACLA Report, we critically examine the rise of green capitalism in the region in the lead-up to COP30 in Belém, Brazil in November.
Topic:: Climate Change, Green Transition, Conference of the Parties (COP), and Green Capitalism
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

2864. Indigenous Communities in Putumayo Resist Canadian Oil

Author:: Luis Aparicio Díaz and Joshua Collins
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: The Nasa’s fight against Gran Tierra Energy reveals the links between extraction and armed conflict, and the limitations of the government’s reforms.
Topic:: Government, Reform, Indigenous, Armed Conflict, and Extractive Industries
Political Geography:: Canada, Colombia, South America, and North America

2865. Colombia Challenges Israeli Impunity from Above and Below

Author:: Abigail Kret and Gabe Levine-Drizin
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: As President Petro ramps up efforts to halt coal exports to Israel, activists push for decisive action and chart a new path for Global South solidarity.
Topic:: Solidarity, Global South, Impunity, Exports, and Activism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Colombia, Palestine, and South America

2866. With Trump, Polarization Among Venezuelans Reaches New Heights

Author:: Steve Ellner
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Washington’s Venezuela policy has intensified divisions within the opposition, revealing class divides and fears over the fallout from a potential U.S. invasion.
Topic:: Class, Donald Trump, Polarization, Opposition, and Nicolas Maduro
Political Geography:: South America, Venezuela, and United States of America

2867. Colombia’s Peace Court Delivers Historic Sentence Against Military Officers

Author:: Joshua Collins
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: The ruling by the transitional justice tribunal, though criticized by some victims, brings hope that the country may soon turn the page.
Topic:: Transitional Justice, Accountability, Peace, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

2868. The Militarization of Commercial Activity in Mexico

Author:: Irene Wang
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: After building the Tren Maya, Mexico’s military has expanded its commercial reach in the Yucatán, with no regard for transparency or accountability.
Topic:: Accountability, Transparency, Militarization, and Commercialization
Political Geography:: Latin America and Mexico

2869. Panama’s President Cracks Down on Unions

Author:: Corey Kane
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Amidst protests, President José Raúl Mulino holds firm to social security reform while suspending habeas corpus and attacking unions and striking workers.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Reform, Unions, and Social Security
Political Geography:: Latin America and Panama

2870. Haiti’s Political Impasse

Author:: Greg Beckett
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Haiti’s current form of “checkpoint governance” represents a structural transformation in how politics works in the country.
Topic:: Security, Politics, and Governance
Political Geography:: Latin America, Caribbean, and Haiti

2871. As Detention Surges Under Trump, Organizers Build a Lasting Movement

Author:: Conner Martinez
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: As the president pumps $45 billion into ICE over the next three years, activists and communities must balance rapid response with longer-term resistance.
Topic:: Donald Trump, Opposition, Activism, Organizing, and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE)
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

2872. Boomerangs of Empire: Latin America as Colonial Laboratory

Author:: Romina Green Rioja and Sergio Beltrán-García
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: This special issue of the NACLA Report traces the returning and disseminating violence that is shaping the Americas today, from border militarization to algorithmic surveillance and the criminalization of dissent.
Topic:: Surveillance, Borders, Violence, Militarization, and Criminalization
Political Geography:: Latin America

2873. Chile at a Crossroads: Human Rights and the Environment Under Kast

Author:: Carole Concha Bell
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Chile’s new far-right president seeks to recycle the military regime's political project, risking hard earned advances in human, Indigenous, and environmental rights.
Topic:: Environment, Human Rights, Domestic Politics, Far Right, and José Antonio Kast
Political Geography:: South America and Chile

2874. On Peru’s Frontline, Ordinary Citizens Face Extraordinary Violence

Author:: Raisa Ferrer Pizarro
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: The dedicated protesters who make up the “primera línea” are fighting for a new Peru—and confronting lethal state repression.
Topic:: Political Violence, Democracy, Domestic Politics, Protests, and Repression
Political Geography:: South America and Peru

2875. Narcofemicide in Argentina: When State Absence Meets Patriarchal Violence

Author:: Celia Fernández
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: A brutal triple femicide exposes how women’s bodies are the battlefield of a war the authorities refuse to name.
Topic:: Gender Based Violence, Drug Trafficking, Femicide, and Narcofemicide
Political Geography:: Argentina and South America

2876. Gaza after two years: As Israel expands control and sows chaos, Hamas adapts to survive

Author:: Nasser Khdour and Middle East Analyst
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: After Israel unilaterally broke the ceasefire and resumed the war, the IDF swiftly expanded its footprint in Gaza, taking control of over 75% of the enclave and carrying out record levels of razing and clearing operations before it launched its ground offensive in Gaza City on 16 September. This campaign has taken a devastating toll on civilians, crammed into three areas not occupied by Israeli ground forces, with about 10,000 civilians killed since March — mainly in airstrikes but also in unprecedented numbers at aid distribution sites. While Hamas’ military wing is degraded and governing structures battered, the group has adapted by shifting toward guerrilla tactics on the battlefield and establishing informal mechanisms of governance and law enforcement to survive and maintain domestic influence. Israel has created conditions of chaos and violence around aid distribution. At the same time, looting has sharply increased. The pattern of looting shows no evidence of Hamas’ systematic involvement. Hamas has probably diverted aid through other mechanisms and can continue to do so as long as it retains domestic influence. Despite opposition from security leaders and growing public support for a ceasefire, Israel’s political leadership continues to pursue “total victory,” a goal increasingly shaped by ideological aims rather than strategic rationale. With little prospect of eliminating Hamas entirely, the government is pursuing a long-term strategy of control: degrading Hamas while blocking alternative Palestinian governing arrangements, pushing Gaza toward unlivable conditions to encourage voluntary emigration, and ultimately obstructing any path to Palestinian sovereignty.
Topic:: Civilians, Hamas, Ceasefire, Armed Conflict, Looting, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

2877. Bolivia braces for tense elections as ruling party implodes

Author:: Tiziano Breda
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: “Instead of counting votes, they will count bodies.” This threat was made by Ruth Nina, head of Bolivia's National Action Party (Pan-Bol), if Evo Morales were not allowed to run as her party’s presidential candidate in the 17 August presidential elections.1 Morales has tried in multiple ways to evade a constitutional ban to run again, including using the Pan-Bol platform, but the Supreme Electoral Tribunal impeded this maneuver by revoking the party’s legal status in June.2 Nina's words — articulated at a gathering of supporters of the former president in Cochabamba on 12 July — were particularly shocking, as they came a few weeks after clashes between security forces and Morales supporters left four police officers and four demonstrators dead, as well as dozens injured. This was the latest and most violent episode of a struggle within the Movement for Socialism (MAS) party, which has dominated the country’s politics in the past two decades. The protagonists of this rift have been Morales, who founded the movement and led the country from 2006 to 2019, and his former finance minister, current President Luis Arce. This dispute has led to the implosion of the Movement for Socialism (MAS) party, contributed to aggravating an already complex economic situation, and risks sparking further unrest around an election that could be defined in a runoff on 19 October.
Topic:: Political Violence, Elections, Evo Morales, and Luis Arce
Political Geography:: Latin America and Bolivia

2878. Q&A: What do Israel’s shifting tactics in Gaza tell us about what’s ahead?

Author:: Salma Eissa
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: On 18 May, Israel launched the anticipated ground operation in northern and southern Gaza as international mediators worked to advance ceasefire negotiations. This offensive is part of Israel’s new plan for Gaza, which it has dubbed Operation Gideon’s Chariots. Announced on 5 May, the plan involves “occupying” Gaza and retaining its territories until the achievement of all war objectives.1 This period has been characterized by intensified Israeli airstrikes, escalated ground operations, the expansion of the buffer zone, and a broader territorial sweep into southern Gaza. The renewed offensive came amid an already dire humanitarian situation, with mass displacement into continuously shrinking zones and an aid blockade that lasted over two months. In this Q&A, ACLED Middle East Research Manager Salma Eissa discusses the nature of violence in Gaza since the collapse of the ceasefire on 18 March, Israel’s evolving strategy, Hamas’ response, and ongoing truce negotiations.
Topic:: Humanitarian Crisis, Ceasefire, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

2879. Personal payback: Assassinations escalate in Ukraine and Russia’s shadow war

Author:: Nichita Gurcov
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: Assassination attempts have surged in Russia-occupied parts of Ukraine since 2022 and especially in the run-up to the Russian annexation of four Ukrainian regions. Targets include Russia-appointed middle-ranking occupation officials, local collaborators, and the military. Ukraine expanded its assassination campaign to Russia in the early stages of Russia’s aggression and escalated it both in terms of the number of incidents and the profile of the targets. Russia is replicating the practice in non-occupied Ukraine but likely struggles to carry out professional operations, relying on local proxies instead. Extrajudicial executions deny due process to victims, trigger a cycle of violence, and may outlast the actual conventional war.
Topic:: Assassination, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

2880. The last of the hegemonic liberation parties: Tanzania’s CCM clings to power as elections loom

Author:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: Tanzania’s ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), will retain power in the October poll, and President Samia Suluhu Hassan will enter her second and final term. Victory will be built on systematic repression of both the main opposition party, Chadema, which has effectively been excluded from the poll, and of critical voices from within CCM. Arrests and disappearances of opposition activists are likely to continue after the election. Continued repression, in the presence of continued opposition to Hassan within CCM, may reignite calls for meaningful constitutional reforms.
Topic:: Elections, Domestic Politics, Repression, and Activism
Political Geography:: Africa and Tanzania

2881. Q&A: Sectarian tensions and Israeli strategy in southern Syria

Author:: Nancy Ezzedine
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: The events of July 2025 in southern Syria — particularly in the Druze-majority city of al-Suwayda — have drawn renewed attention to a volatile frontier. Since the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024, the provinces of al-Suwayda, Daraa, and Quneitra have experienced a sharp rise in political violence, driven by sectarian tensions, local power struggles, and foreign interventions. In this Q&A, ACLED Middle East Analyst Nancy Ezzeddine explores the roots of the recent escalation, the role of Druze factions and tribal actors, and Israel’s evolving posture toward the area.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Sectarianism, Syrian War, Violence, and Druze
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Syria

2882. Q&A: What does the Wagner Group’s exit from Mali mean for Russian activity in Africa?

Author:: Hén Nsaibia
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: The Wagner Group announced it was leaving Mali in early June after over three years of operating in the country alongside the Malian military (FAMa) against jihadist insurgents. In this Q&A, ACLED Senior Analyst for West Africa Héni Nsaibia breaks down how the mercenary group has affected violence and politics in Mali and what these changes mean for Russia’s involvement in Africa.
Topic:: Politics, Insurgency, Violence, Wagner Group, and Africa Corps
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, and Mali

2883. Childhood poverty and life expectancy: Evidence from Brazilian human development units

Author:: D'ercio de Assis
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:: This paper analyzes data from urban Brazil using supervised machine-learning techniques to shed greater light on the role that childhood poverty plays in lifelong health and longevity. By examining a unique dataset collected over a 10-year period from thousands of very small, sub-neighborhood-level geographic areas, I document that child poverty measures have higher predictive power than household income, and other major socioeconomic variables, in forecasting child and adult health outcomes and lifespans. In addition, using a rich dictionary of hundreds of variables and different data-driven specification selections, the machine-learning models reveal that experiencing more severe deprivation in childhood is associated with a decrease of 4 percentage points in the probability of survival to ages 40 and 60. These predictions offer further economic insights on the importance of early life circumstances for human development.
Topic:: Development, Child Poverty, Socioeconomics, and Life Expectancy
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

2884. Discrimination spillovers, glass ceilings and pay gaps

Author:: Gianni De Fraja and József Sákovics
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:: This paper is a theoretical analysis of the consequences of workplace discrimination. We prove that discrimination against a group at lower levels of the hierarchy affects the pay of members of the same group at higher levels, leading to a “pay gap” relative to non-discriminated workers. These spillovers in turn induce firms to alter the match between workers and jobs for the discriminated group, potentially leading to a “glass ceiling”. The phenomenon can occur even in firms where “equal pay for equal jobs” appears to be adhered to. The explanation is based on the standard participation and incentive constraints: the need to compensate workers for the direct discrimination they suffer, to induce them to work, and the need to maintain pay differentials between job levels, to provide effort incentives. We end the paper showing that neither competition among workers, nor competition among firms for workers eliminates these spillovers.
Topic:: Business, Discrimination, Glass Ceiling, and Competition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2885. The Ukrainian War as an Anti-Systemic Imperative and Its Geopolitical Consequences: The Rise of BRICS Influence

Author:: Charles Pennaforte
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: The so-called Special Military Operation (Ukraine War) launched by Russia in February 2022 has had a major impact on geopolitics, the economy and international relations. The economic sanctions promoted by the US and the European Union (EU) have made Russia one of the most sanctioned countries in the world.The main idea of the US and the EU with sanctions was to promote the economic suffocation of Vladimir Putin’s government in an attempt to hinder the goals of the definitive annexation of the Donbass region and, if possible, to promote a regime change in Russia, even if it was not openly declared. On the other hand, the BRICS countries have not followed the West in applying economic sanctions, nor has the so-called Global South, despite great political pressure.This scenario brings with it a new perspective, both geopolitical and economic: the consolidation of the decline of the so-called US hegemony (Wallerstein, 2004) and the acceleration of the process of weakening the dollar as the standard for international trade. This process is still in the embryonic phase, as we will see in the course of our work.
Topic:: International Relations, Geopolitics, Economy, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

2886. Reflections on Brazil and Defense Cooperation: Between Historical Advantages and Challenges (1822-Present)

Author:: Kamilla Raquel Rizzi and Danielle Jacon Ayres Pinto
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: This research analyzes Defense cooperation in Brazil, seeking to facilitate a theoretical discussion and a proposal for a historical periodization of the actions of this type of cooperation in Brazil. When answering which are the most evident characteristics of cooperation in the area, as a working hypothesis it is pointed out that there are a) advantages and challenges in the actions of Defense cooperation in Brazil, b) a correlation between Defense and foreign policy in these actions and c) the mapping of priority areas throughout history is evident. Defense cooperation is a strategy that involves collaboration between countries to increase defense capacity, share information, conduct joint training, develop technologies and strengthen diplomatic ties. The review of the theoretical literature in the area points to several possibilities, understandings and paths for Defense cooperation, but in this research it was chosen to use the concept of stability as a factor generating cooperation, as well as the evolution of the correlation between Defense and foreign policy in Brazilian history.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, History, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

2887. Canada's Contributions to Peacekeeping in Lebanon: Preserving Peace and Stability

Author:: Mohamad Zreik
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: Canada has a long history of participating in peacekeeping missions around the world, and has played an important role in maintaining peace and stability in many conflict-affected countries. This study aims to examine Canada's contributions to peacekeeping efforts in Lebanon, with a focus on the role Canada has played in preserving peace and stability in the country. The research will analyze Canada's involvement in the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), including the impact of Canada's presence on the peace process, the challenges and successes Canada has faced in maintaining peace, and the broader impact of Canadian peacekeeping efforts on the international community. By examining Canada's peacekeeping efforts in Lebanon, this study aims to shed light on the ways in which Canada contributes to peace and stability around the world and to explore the effectiveness of Canadian peacekeeping in resolving conflict and promoting stability.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Peacekeeping, Political stability, and United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL)
Political Geography:: Middle East, Canada, and Lebanon

2888. The Rise of Right-Wing Populism in the European Union: Causes and Consequences

Author:: Adrian Cuevas Talens
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: The rise of right-wing populism in the EU over the past two decades has reshaped European politics. This paper explores the causes, characteristics, and impacts of this trend, focusing on political, economic, and social factors. The 2008 financial crisis, the 2015 refugee crisis, and debates on sovereignty and EU integration have heightened the appeal of populist rhetoric. Right-wing populists frame themselves as defenders of "common people" against "corrupt elites" and immigration. Case studies from Greece, Spain, Sweden, Germany, the UK, and Italy highlight how these parties gained traction and their effects on EU cohesion and democratic values. Addressing these challenges involves strengthening democratic institutions and enhancing solidarity among EU member states.
Topic:: Politics, European Union, Populism, Right-Wing Politics, Regional Politics, Cohesion, and Immigration
Political Geography:: Europe

2889. A New Scramble? Geopolitical Economy of Multi-Polarity in the Sahel and its Implications for Africa's Economic Sovereignty

Author:: Al-Chukwuma Okoli and Abdulkareem Alhassan
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: This study explores how the Sahel has emerged as a contested space for influence, competitive stakes, resources, and markets. The paper posits that the Sahel’s geopolitical economy is characterized by a new scramble – a multi-polar struggle by the global and regional powers – for dominance and strategic advantage, with far-reaching implications for the sovereignty of the member states as well as regional stability and development. The paper underscores the nuanced issues that underpin the evolving geopolitical landscape in the Sahel and what they hold African agency and sovereign virtues, especially in the realms of economy and geo-strategy.
Topic:: Political Economy, Sovereignty, Geopolitics, Multipolarity, and Great Powers
Political Geography:: Africa and Sahel

2890. The Disinformation in International Relations: Examining the Vulnerabilities of Brazil

Author:: Leandro Loureiro Costa
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: Some of the foremost concerns regarding information security in International Relations revolve around the repercussions of misinformation on the internal political process, with the aim of undermining adversary states. Certain studies have indicated the inefficacy of such endeavors in yielding substantial results in modifying the behavior of the targets. Given this assumption, this research endeavored to assess, in the context of Brazil, three hypotheses questioning the efficacy of this type of instrument. The conclusion is that the country finds itself in a state of strategic vulnerability but has undertaken institutional efforts to counteract the potential ramifications of a disinformation campaign.
Topic:: International Relations, Disinformation, Vulnerability, Information Security, and Subversion
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

2891. Energy and Natural Resources in the Argentina-China Relationship: Interests, Cooperation and Challenges

Author:: Julian Bilmes
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: The aim of this article is to analyze the outstanding role that energy and natural resources play in the increasing relationship between China and Argentina to inquire what type of development is outlined. These topics have a central role in terms of the bilateral trade balance, investment, funding and around cooperation mechanisms, due to Argentine bet to build new export complexes and Chinese needs for its energy and supply security. Oil and gas, mining and different type of energy generation are analyzed: nuclear, hydroelectric, solar and wind, highlighting Chinese firms positioning as well as bilateral cooperation agreements, its obstacles and challenges
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Natural Resources, Trade, and Energy
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Argentina, and South America

2892. Ecopolitics and Ecological Trends in the Middle East: Realism or Utopia?

Author:: Katarzyna Czornik
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: The paper explains that Islam and ecology do not contradict each other. Countries dominated by Muslims focus on the development of ecological trends. Ecological trends become essential to enhance the state’s position in the region and the international arena. In this case, ecopolitics becomes practical tools used by political decision-makers to create an image of a modern state whose economy is innovative and whose society is aware of the benefits resulting from the implementation of ecological solutions. Nevertheless, there is a close correlation between religious and political circumstances (functioning of authoritarian regimes) and low effectiveness of environmental movements and groups.
Topic:: Environment, Islam, Politics, Ecology, and Muslims
Political Geography:: Middle East

2893. Brazil-China Relations Under Lula and Bolsonaro: Rapprochement and Distancing Through Discourse

Author:: Paulo Afonso Brardo Duarte and Lucas Braga Dutra
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: This article aims to provide a comparative analysis of Sino-Brazilian relations from the Brazilian perspective during the presidencies of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Jair Messias Bolsonaro. This analysis is based on the examination of speeches made by both presidents during their respective terms. Drawing on the French tradition of Discourse Analysis, the study seeks to comprehend how the two presidents behaved in the context of the Brazil-China relationship throughout their respective terms. This study is based on the hypothesis that there was a desire to bring the relationship between the two countries closer during Lula's administration and an attempt to distance it, at least in President Bolsonaro's informal speeches, which was not, however, corroborated by his formal speeches.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Jair Bolsonaro, Discourse, and Lula da Silva
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Brazil, and South America

2894. Balancing Borders: Trade, Security, and Migration in US-Mexico Relations Today

Author:: Diane E. Davis, Jorge Capetillo-Ponce, José Ignacio Hernández, Silvia Nuñez Garcia, and Chappell Lawson
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: Balancing Borders: Trade, Security, and Migration in US-Mexico Relations Today: Thursday, October 9, 2025 A conversation on the challenges and opportunities at the intersection of trade, security, and migration. This conference is co-sponsored by MIT-Mexico, UNAM Boston and UMass Boston, and brought together scholars, policymakers, and practitioners to explore the evolving dynamics of the U.S.–Mexico relationship. Speakers: Diane E. Davis is the Charles Dyer Norton Professor of Regional Planning and Urbanism at Harvard’s Graduate School of Design (GSD) and Domain Head of the Publics Track in the Master of Design Studies Program. Trained as a sociologist, Davis’s research interests include urban governance, urban social movements, the politics of planning, and conflict in cities. Her books include Cities and Sovereignty: Identity Conflicts in the Urban Realm (Indiana University Press, 2011); Discipline and Development: Middle Classes and Prosperity in East Asia and Latin America (Cambridge University Press, 2004); Irregular Armed Forces and their Role in Politics and State Formation (Cambridge University Press, 2003); and Urban Leviathan: Mexico City in the Twentieth Century (Temple University Press 1994; Spanish translation 1999). Jorge Capetillo-Ponce is currently Associate Professor of Sociology and Latino Studies at University of Massachusetts Boston. From 2016 to 2022 he was editor of the Sociology of the Caribbean section for the Library of Congress. He also taught courses and gave lectures from 2002-2021 in the culture program at the Boston Graduate School of Psychoanalysis. Before he joined the faculty of Sociology at UMASS Boston in 2002, Professor Capetillo-Ponce worked as Executive Director of the Mexican Cultural Institute in New York City (2000-2001) as advisor to the Dean of the Graduate Faculty at The New School (1996-2000), and as consultant to Latino/a grassroots organizations in New York City (2000-2002) and Boston (2002-present). José Ignacio Hernández (Caracas, 1974), has a Law Degree from the Universidad Central de Venezuela, with a summa cum laude diploma (1997); an Advanced Study Certificate from the Universidad Complutense de Madrid (2001) and a Juris Doctor from the Universidad Complutense with a summa cum laude diploma (2002). He is Professor of Administrative Law at the Universidad Central de Venezuela and the Universidad Católica Andrés Bello, both in Venezuela. He also teaches Economic Constitutional Law in the Universidad Católica Andrés Bello. He has been professor of regulatory framework at the Instituto de Estudios Superiores de Administración (IESA), also in Venezuela. He is the Director of the Law Review of the Law Faculty of the Universidad Católica Andrés Bello. He has written more than 100 academic articles published in Venezuela, Colombia, Argentine, Chile, Mexico, US, Italy, Poland and Spain. He also has written 14 books. Silvia Nuñez Garcia is a researcher at Center for Research on North America, from Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, where she was director between 2009 and 2017. She also had the responsibility of directing the UNAM office in Los Angeles, California during 2021 and 2022. In 2019, the Government of Canada, through its Embassy in Mexico, awarded her the 'Canada-Mexico 75' recognition for her contribution to strengthening academic ties between the two nations. Throughout her career, she has been a visiting scholar at the Center for Latin American and Caribbean Studies at Michigan State University and other prestigious institutions such as Georgetown University and Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India. Likewise, she was distinguished as a Fellow of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars of the United States in 1999. Moderator: Chappell Lawson is an Associate Professor of Political Science at MIT. Professor Lawson's recent work has focused on homeland security policy, Mexican politics, the effect of candidates' physical appearance on their electoral success, and political leadership. From September 2009 through February 2011, Professor Lawson was on leave from MIT as a political appointee in the Obama Administration, serving as Executive Director and Senior Advisor to the Commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection. Before joining the MIT faculty, he served briefly as a Director of Inter-American Affairs on the National Security Council staff during the Clinton Administration.
Topic:: Security, Migration, Bilateral Relations, Borders, and Trade
Political Geography:: Latin America, North America, Mexico, and United States of America

2895. Brazil-China Relations: A Three-Decade Analysis of Knowledge Diplomacy (1994–2024)

Author:: Rodrigo Franklin Frogeri, Francisco Jose Leandro, and Yichao Li
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: China’s rise has influenced global affairs, including its relations with Brazil. This study explores knowledge diplomacy - academic collaborations forming innovation networks that complement traditional state diplomacy. Marking 30 years of strategic partnership (1993-2023) and 50 years of Sino-Brazilian diplomatic relations (1974-2024), the research poses and addresses the following question: “To what extent does knowledge diplomacy manifest in Brazil–China bilateral relations?”. Using a systematic literature review and social network analysis, the findings indicate that knowledge diplomacy between Brazil and China remains in its nascent stages. Only three initiatives related to the co-production of scientific knowledge were identified, involving a total of six researchers from both countries. Despite the comprehensiveness of the analysis, the results reveal that state-level, proactive engagement between higher education institutions in Brazil and China has remained superficial throughout the three decades under examination.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Soft Power, Higher Education, Social Networks, Network Analysis, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Brazil, and South America

2896. Open-access Challenging Dollar Dominance? How Brazil Responds to RMB Internationalization

Author:: Thaís Araripe, Luiza Peruffo, and Andre Moreira Cunha
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: This article explores the role of China’s currency, the renminbi (RMB), in Brazil, analyzing how the country positions itself in the shift toward alternative currencies to the U.S. dollar amidst changing global monetary power. It addresses three key questions: How widely is the RMB used in Brazil’s economy? What institutional measures support RMB adoption in Brazil? And what are the implications of this engagement for Brazil’s role in the international monetary and financial system? Findings indicate a modest but growing RMB integration in Brazil. Rather than embarking on a de-dollarization process, Brazil appears to be employing an incremental approach – one that leverages selective institutional measures to diversify its financial risks while preserving its strategic ties with the dominant global currency.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Developing World, Economy, Currency, Internationalization, De-Dollarization, International Monetary and Financial System, and Economic Sovereignty
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Brazil, and South America

2897. Between distrust and strategic opportunity: Chinese scholars discuss the U.S. impact in Sino-Latin American relations

Author:: Antonio José Pagán Sánchez
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: This study examines how academic publications in China have interpreted the U.S. impact on Sino-Latin American relations between 2009 and 2024. This period encompasses three different U.S. presidents: Barack Obama, Donald Trump (first presidency), and Joe Biden. The findings indicate that, strikingly, distrust toward the U.S. was already present well before U.S.-China tensions erupted during Trump’s presidency, and that publications consulted perceived this administration as a strategic opportunity for China to expand its presence in the region. Under Biden, distrust toward the United States remained, and his presidency was not seen as much of a strategic opportunity. The study also highlights the consistent recommendation among Chinese scholars for Beijing to adopt a conciliatory approach toward Washington.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Academia, Donald Trump, Rivalry, and Monroe Doctrine
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Latin America

2898. Too Big to Dock: Brazil-China Iron Trade and the Valemax Vessels Crisis

Author:: Victor Thives
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: This article analyzes the Valemax crisis to explore how regulatory barriers and domestic interests shape trade. When the Valemax, vessels owned by Brazil’s giant mining company Vale, were barred from Chinese ports, allegedly due to safety concerns, a diplomatic and commercial impasse emerged. Drawing on the Bureaucratic Politics Model, the study shows how Brazilian state agencies coordinated to defend Vale’s interests, while China protected its shipping sector. The eventual resolution, by transferring ship ownership to Chinese State Owned Enterprises (SOEs), illustrates how foreign firms must adapt to China’s political economy. The case highlights the influence of large companies on foreign policy and the complexities of commercial diplomacy in asymmetric economic relationships.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Regulation, Economy, Trade, Bureaucracy, and State-Owned Enterprises
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Brazil, and South America

2899. The Third World Imperative: How Brazil-China Relations Emerge from the Aftershock of Richard Nixon’s Latin American Foreign Policy

Author:: Pablo Muñoz
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: This article analyzes the emergence of Brazil-China relations in the context of Richard Nixon’s foreign policy toward Latin America. It examines how American perceptions of Brazil as a potential competitor, and the geopolitical economic maneuvers of the Nixon administration influenced Brazil’s foreign policy decisions. The article highlights Brazil’s growing nationalism and its engagement with the Third World, including economic interactions with the Soviet Union and the eventual establishment of relations with mainland China. Ultimately, it argues that U.S. foreign policy played a significant role in shaping Brazil’s understanding of its Third World imperative, paving the way for closer relations with China that continue to this day.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Nationalism, Third World, and Dictatorship
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Brazil, South America, North America, and United States of America

2900. Defining the Belt and Road: How Ideas and Interests Shaped Argentina’s Approach to the Initiative

Author:: Zara C. Albright
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: How do ideas and identities affect how countries evaluate joining China’s Belt and Road Initiative? This article employs process tracing to analyze Argentina’s negotiations prior to its accession in February 2022. Argentina is a crucial case to explain because both the Macri and Fernández governments faced similar material benefits of infrastructure finance. However, the Macri government defined the BRI as a form of alignment with China, while the Fernández government interpreted it as South-South cooperation and autonomy from Western-led financial institutions. These findings show that developing countries evaluate both the material and symbolic costs and benefits of the BRI.
Topic:: International Relations, Finance, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Development Finance
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Argentina, and South America

Search

Search Constraints

Search Results

Refine your search

Topic

Political Geography

Content Type

Journal

Publishing Institution

Author

Publication Year

COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS