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2851. Rebuilding U.S. Zinc Capacity in an Era of Global Competition

Author:
Gracelin Baskaran and Meredith Schwartz
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Zinc ranks as the fourth-most widely used metal worldwide. In addition to its primary application in steel galvanization, refin­ing zinc also produces gallium and germanium—key inputs for advanced semiconductors and defense technologies. However, amid falling ore grades and limited exploration, the United States remains heavily dependent on zinc imports. Once a global hub for zinc processing, the United States now lacks sufficient refining capacity, importing over 70 percent of its refined zinc. There is an opportunity to rebuild domestic, vertically integrated zinc supply chains and reduce reliance on China, but this will demand deliberate action. Bolstering U.S. resilience will require scaling up domestic mining and refining, strategically deploying tariffs, encouraging private investment, promoting price stability, and deepening partnerships with allied nations.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Trade, Strategic Competition, Industry, Economic Security, Energy, Critical Minerals, and Zinc
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2852. Syria’s Promise and Challenges One Year After Assad’s Fall

Author:
Mona Yacoubian and Will Todman
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
One year after the collapse of the Assad regime, the fate of Syria’s transition lies between the promise spurred by the Syrian people’s resilience and the enormous challenges posed by years of devastating conflict and decades of authoritarianism. The window for a successful transition is not open-ended. To succeed, the transition government must prioritize efforts to mitigate sectarian tensions, expand governance authority beyond interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s tight-knit circle, and double down on building domestic credibility. External stakeholders—especially the Gulf—have a critical role to play by insisting that aid and investment efforts are transparent, technically sound, and well-coordinated.
Topic:
Sectarianism, Authoritarianism, Syrian War, Bashar al-Assad, and Post-Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

2853. Building peace through connectivity: how can the European Union support the TRIPP?

Author:
Agha Bayramov
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP)
Abstract:
On 8 August 2025, Armenia and Azerbaijan reached a significant diplomatic milestone when US President Donald Trump hosted the leaders of both countries at the White House for the signing of a landmark joint declaration. This trilateral agreement represents an important step toward resolving the region’s most protracted conflict. At its core lies the TRIPP, a US-facilitated connectivity initiative designed to establish a 43-kilometre route through Armenian territory linking mainland Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave. If fully implemented the TRIPP project could help dismantle longstanding barriers to trade and mobility between Armenia and Azerbaijan and across the South Caucasus. Since the signing of the TRIPP agreement the region has witnessed the first tangible signs of renewed transit cooperation. In November 2025, wheat shipments from Kazakhstan and Russia reached Armenia via Azerbaijan for the first time in nearly three decades, signalling the practical reopening of regional corridors. Azerbaijan is now preparing to deliver an initial batch of fuel to Armenia via Georgia. These early movements – modest in scale but symbolically significant – demonstrate that the commitments linked to TRIPP are beginning to translate into operational reality. For Armenia and Azerbaijan, they represent initial confidence-building steps; for external partners they offer an early indication that the regional environment is shifting from conflict management toward cautious re-engagement. For the EU, the implications are far from straightforward. This development presents both opportunities and strategic dilemmas. As Washington reasserts its diplomatic role and Moscow’s and Tehran’s influence potentially wanes, Brussels must decide how to position itself in this changing context. This policy brief explores why the TRIPP matters for the EU, how the EU can best contribute its expertise, and what tools and measures it can mobilise to support the development of the TRIPP in alignment with its own strategic and economic interests. The brief addresses these questions by presenting five actionable policy recommendations on how the EU can support the TRIPP as a transformative instrument for peacebuilding, economic integration and long term-stability in the South Caucasus. It is important to note that any meaningful EU engagement depends on the consent of the US, Armenia and Azerbaijan. Brussels can position itself as a supportive partner and intervene only where its involvement is explicitly welcomed by the parties.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Europe, Armenia, and Azerbaijan

2854. Algorithmic North: Weather, Security and International Law

Author:
Amanda H. Lynch and Charles H. Norchi
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP)
Abstract:
Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) technologies are reshaping core practices and infrastructure worldwide, but in the Arctic, this transformation is not merely disruptive – it is decisive. The region is at once climatically unstable, geopolitically conested and operationally fragile. Accurate weather, water, and climate (WWC) services form the backbone of safety, mobility, and sovereignty in the High North. As Arctic stakeholders turn increasingly to AI/ML to enhance decision-making support, they are rapidly building dependencies on systems in an institutional vacuum. In a region where the margin for error is slim and the consequences of failure severe, these shifts demand urgent policy attention. At the same time, international law is struggling to keep pace. No treaty regime governs algorithmic decision-making in the Arctic, and the patchwork of relevant norms were not designed for this convergence of technical innovation, commercial incentives, and environmental exigency. This Policy Brief situates the algorithmic transformation of Arctic WWC services within its broader legal and security context. It concludes by outlining three domains for policy intervention: international organisations, international law and international security.
Topic:
Security, International Law, Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Weather
Political Geography:
Arctic

2855. A Global Policy Perspective on Offensive Cyberspace Operations

Author:
Gazmend Huskaj
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP)
Abstract:
Over the past decade, offensive cyberspace operations have expanded rapidly and reshaped international security. Once limited to a few major powers, currently dozens of states and some non-state actors possess these capabilities, reflecting the normalisation of cyberspace offensive capacity across the international system. This diffusion erodes the boundary between peace and conflict and complicates deterrence by introducing ambiguity, shortened decision cycles, and a higher risk of miscalculation. At a time of increasing geopolitical competition, understanding how to manage the global spread of offensive cyberspace capabilities is vital to sustaining strategic stability and preventing the escalation of cyberspace-related crises. This policy brief therefore asks how states can reduce the risks of miscalculation and escalation while preserving stability and international norms in cyberspace. It argues that stability can be strengthened through greater transparency, stronger legal and normative frameworks, and practical multistakeholder cooperation. The brief proceeds by tracing the diffusion of offensive cyberspace operations, analysing escalation dynamics, examining policy and legal gaps, and concluding with recommendations for global cooperation.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Geopolitics, Norms, Strategic Competition, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2856. Why deterrence needs dialogue and détente

Author:
Thomas Greminger
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP)
Abstract:
Since at least the time of the Greeks and the Romans it has been conventional wisdom that if you want peace prepare for war. Strong defences, military capabilities and demonstrating resolve can deter an enemy that might have thoughts of attack. American presidents from George Washington to Ronald Reagan (and even Donald Trump) have promoted the security benefits of “peace through strength”. Such logic will no doubt dominate security doctrines for the foreseeable future. But paradoxically, pure deterrence can be potentially destabilizing. Lack of communication with opponents can deepen distrust, create misperceptions and increase the risk of miscalculation. Therefore, at a time of high tensions in international relations, it is vital to retain some aspects of dialogue and détente if deterrence is to be credible and effective.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Deterrence, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
United States of America

2857. Climate Ambition and Electricity Affordability: Lessons from Connecticut

Author:
Noah Kaufman
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
Rising electricity prices are an obstacle to climate action in many US states. Continuing to pursue ambitious decarbonization goals while ensuring affordable electricity to residents and businesses will require bold policy shifts, with solutions that differ across regions. This report explores specific challenges to decarbonization and electricity affordability in Connecticut, as well as opportunities to decarbonize more affordably. Connecticut has among the highest electricity prices in the nation and a binding commitment to achieve 100 percent zero-carbon electricity by 2040.
Topic:
Climate Change, Electricity, Decarbonization, and Energy
Political Geography:
North America, United States of America, and Connecticut

2858. Purple Rain: Temperamental Politics and Budgets in Arizona

Author:
Max Goshert, Janica Murphy, Samira Amin, Mo Abouelenin, and Amber Chisholm
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
Arizona’s evolving political landscape has become a key factor in its fiscal outlook. Once a solid Republican stronghold, the state has shifted to swing status, as seen in President Joe Biden's narrow 0.3% margin win in the 2020 election and a closely divided state legislature. Strong economic growth in prior years led to FY23 General Fund revenues being revised upwards from $15.9 billion to $17.9 billion. Despite this, declining tax revenues and increased spending, particularly on a universal school voucher program, created a projected $1.71 billion deficit for FY25. The state's Republican-led legislature implemented a 2.5% flat income tax and expanded school vouchers, significantly impacting revenue. To address the deficit, the FY25 budget, finalized at $16.8 billion, included cuts to many programs, most notably a $430 million reduction in the Arizona Water Infrastructure and Financing Authority. The political status quo remained consistent after the 2024 election, where Republicans won a marginal gain in both chambers of the state legislature, Democrats kept control of the U.S. Senate seat up for reelection, and the U.S. House seats remained at 6–3 for Republicans and Democrats, respectively. This report examines the fiscal trajectory, proposed tax policy changes, and political state driving Arizona’s FY25 budget negotiations.
Topic:
Politics, Budget, Fiscal Policy, and State Legislature
Political Geography:
North America, Arizona, and United States of America

2859. Oregon’s 2024 Legislative Session and Budget: From Incivility to Civility

Author:
Brent S. Steel and Emily Mooney
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
The 2024 Oregon legislative session, spanning a concise 35-day period, marked a return to bipartisan collaboration resulting in significant policy advancements. Major reforms enacted include the implementation of campaign finance limits, modifications to drug decriminalization policies, and the introduction of a substantial housing initiative by Governor Tina Kotek. These actions stand in contrast to the previous year's divisive Republican walkout, which had halted legislative proceedings in protest against proposed bills on gun control, education, and climate change. This walkout led to a new ballot measure that penalized unexcused absences among legislators, threatening the ability of boycotting members to run for re-election. Despite the prior tensions, the 2024 session was distinguished by cooperation, as evidenced by both parties acknowledging its historic success in achieving policy goals. The budget passed on June 25, 2023, outlined a total of $121.264 billion for the 2023-25 period, reflecting a decrease from the previous budget due to a reduction in Federal Funds, counterbalanced by an increase in the General Fund and Lottery Funds. Detailed resource allocations were influenced by the May 2023 revenue forecast, with specific adjustments made during the 2024 session to align with the biennium's objectives.
Topic:
Reform, Budget, Public Policy, Polarization, and State Legislature
Political Geography:
North America, United States of America, and Oregon

2860. The 2023 Nevada Budget: Record Surpluses, Cautious Optimism, and Bipartisan Support for K-12 Education and State Employees

Author:
Brad Johnson and David Damore
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
In June of 2023, the Nevada Legislature passed the state’s 2023-2025 budget. Buoyed by continued increases in the state’s share of the sales taxes and revenue tied to gaming, entertainment, and tourism as well as business activity, the $10.9 billion general fund budget was the largest in Nevada’s history. After four years of unified Democratic control of state government, the 2023 session was the first budget passed under divided government since 2017. While partisan and interbranch tensions were ever present as evidenced by a record 75 vetoed bills, Nevada’s Republican governor and Democratic-controlled legislature supported substantial investments in K-12 education and state employees. Enthusiasm for long-term spending obligations, however, was tempered by the fact that the general fund budget’s two largest revenue drivers—sales and gaming taxes—fluctuate with macroeconomic conditions. The continued reliance on these revenue sources perpetuates Nevada’s history of booms and busts and undermines the state’s ability to make long-term investments in its human capital and physical infrastructure. Consequently, the budget choices adopted by the governor and legislature reflected broad compromises and investments, while other areas, including costly but much needed reforms to state government, went unaddressed.
Topic:
Education, Government, Budget, and State Legislature
Political Geography:
North America, United States of America, and Nevada

2861. The Long Shadow of the Taxpayer's Bill of Rights: Colorado's 2024-2025 Budget and Economy

Author:
Michael Berry
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
In one of the most polarized legislatures in the United States, partisan and ideological divisions among Colorado lawmakers often overlap with differences in identity and experience. Although the chasm between Democrats and Republicans on salient social and economic issues is wide, bipartisan policymaking still occurs. Democratic successes in 2022 extended their streak to four consecutive election cycles of remaining even or gaining seats in both the Colorado House and Senate. Unified government with expanded majorities has allowed Democrats to advance their agenda through the state budget with relative ease, and seldom used parliamentary tactics helped bring about liberal policy change in contentious issue areas including gun control. In budgetary politics, the fiscal constraints of the Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights (TABOR) currently do more to impede the progressive agenda than dwindling opposition votes from minority party Republicans. Statewide ballot measures have also driven policy change, at times in conservative directions, on consequential tax and fiscal policy issues. Coloradans have demonstrated an openness to government reform in some areas, but less so when it comes to ballot measures affecting TABOR.
Topic:
Budget, Economy, Tax Systems, and State Legislature
Political Geography:
North America, Colorado, and United States of America

2862. New Mexico 2024: Swinging the Compass. Recalibrating Fiscal Policy to Plan for a Slower Economy

Author:
Kim Seckler
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
In late February 2024, the New Mexico State Legislature closed the books on a relatively uneventful session. After successive years of record revenues and double-digit budget expansion, the legislature modestly reigned in spending increases to less than 7%. Legislators continued their recent trend of stashing some of the state’s massive surplus in newly created endowment funds, hoping to insulate the state from future economic downturns. The legislative action reflects a growing consensus that boom and bust budgeting does not provide for a stable, long-term financial future. Legislators still managed to approve a $10 billion dollar plus budget, set aside reserves upwards of 30%, and spend almost $1.4 billion in capital projects big and small. Though the 30-day session is short, lawmakers still found time to deal with some social issues (public safety, health care, education, and the environment) and some issues personal to the legislature. Though only 72 pieces of legislation passed, the legislature managed to reset the compass on New Mexico’s financial structure while tinkering with current social concerns.
Topic:
Budget, Economy, Fiscal Policy, and State Legislature
Political Geography:
North America, United States of America, and New Mexico

2863. Into the Unknown: The 2024 Washington State Legislative Session & Beyond

Author:
Michael Artime, Erin Richards, and Francis Benjamin
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
In this paper, we discuss the political and budgetary landscape of Washington State. With consistent Democratic leadership—in the governor’s mansion and with respect to legislative priorities—the state has been able to advance a more liberal policy agenda than states without Democratic majorities. In this session, the legislature voted to invest in the development of affordable housing, behavioral health initiatives, and policies designed to curb climate change. However, ballot initiatives in November might serve as a significant impediment to these policy pursuits. Voters will decide whether to keep the cap-and-trade climate policy, the capital gains tax, and the long-term care program for the state. The cap-and-trade policy, as well as the capital gains tax, serves as a means of revenue generation and the elimination of these resources would upend the budget in important ways moving forward.
Topic:
Government, Budget, Democratic Party, and State Legislature
Political Geography:
Washington, North America, and United States of America

2864. Should Newsom Stay or Should He LAO? California’s 2024-2025 Budget

Author:
Brian DiSarro and Wesley Hussey
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
The FY 2024-25 budgeting cycle in California was far less chaotic than the previous year, when a record $100 billion budget surplus morphed into a widening deficit. This time, Democratic Gavin Newsom and the Democratic controlled legislature had to tackle that mounting deficit as the state’s economy stalled, specifically among the wealthiest Californians, who fund a large portion of the state’s government. Neither Newsom nor the two new Democratic legislative leaders had experienced a budget deficit in office, which made coordination additionally tricky. The state is in much better shape than previous deficits, however, with a large reserve and strong budget resilience among its leaders. One problem- the governor increasingly reports different budget numbers than the state’s nonpartisan Legislative Analyst Office (LAO), which assesses the administration’s budget for the legislature.
Topic:
Government, Budget, Democratic Party, State Legislature, and Gavin Newsom
Political Geography:
California, North America, and United States of America

2865. Two Factions Walk into a Budget Session

Author:
Jason McConnell and Robert Schuhmann
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
The 67th Wyoming Legislature’s 20-day budget session was convened Thursday, February 8, 2024, for the beginning of its work in Cheyenne. This year, outside of its typical budget work, over 360 bills were brought forward by both legislative committees and individual legislators. These bills ranged from property tax relief to health care. In the end, on Friday March 8th, the final biennial General Fund budget was close to $3.8 billion – up approximately $100 million from the previous biennium. Deep ideological divides within the state’s dominant Republican Party drove much debate and show no signs of abating before next year’s general session.
Topic:
Government, Budget, State Legislature, and Republican Party
Political Geography:
North America, United States of America, and Wyoming

2866. How Are Minority Staffers Utilized? Evidence from the California State Assembly

Author:
Michelangelo Landgrave
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
Legislative staffers are among legislators’ most valuable assets and their appointment by legislators is strategic. Past research has focused on how legislative staffer appointments help legislators meet policy or constituency service goals. In this article I advance the literature by theorizing how minority staffers are utilized. I hypothesize, and show using novel data from the California State Assembly, that state legislators disproportionally place Hispanic and Asian American Pacific Islander staffers in constituency service positions. This may be done as an effort to provide a form of surrogate descriptive representation. Concerningly, because minority staffers are more likely to be placed in constituency service positions, minority staffers are less likely to be placed in policy orientated positions where they might have the most influence over substantive policymaking. This leads to a situation where minority staffers are placed in visible constituency service appointments but continue to be underrepresented in key policy appointments.
Topic:
Government, Minorities, State Legislature, and Staffers
Political Geography:
California, North America, and United States of America

2867. Adapting to a changing climate

Author:
Edson Ntodwa, Rorisang Lekalake, and Matthias Krönke
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Scientists continue to issue urgent warnings about accelerating climate change, with each year bringing new evidence of its devastating impacts globally (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2023a; NASA, 2024). Recent years have witnessed unprecedented extreme weather events across the African continent that underscore the immediacy of the climate crisis, from tropical cyclone Freddy and severe drought in Southern Africa to record-breaking heatwaves and catastrophic floods in the Sahel (Barnes et al., 2024; Pinto et al., 2024). Yet the global political landscape for climate action has become more challenging. Major greenhouse-gas emitters, including the United States, have retreated from climate commitments, threatening to undermine international climate agreements and domestic climate policies (Dolphin, 2025). At the same time, African leaders demand additional financial support to finance green-energy projects but are divided over how quickly their countries should transition to green energies (Chime, 2025; FSD Africa 2025). On one hand, Ethiopia, Kenya, Egypt, and South Africa have made meaningful progress toward adopting renewable energy sources. On the other hand, countries with large oil and natural-gas reserves (e.g. Nigeria and Senegal) are more reluctant to commit to the green-energy transition and the reduction of greenhouse-gas emissions (Kimeu, 2023; Climate Investment Funds, 2025).
Topic:
Climate Change, Public Opinion, Public Policy, Carbon Emissions, and Drought
Political Geography:
Africa

2868. Who owns a bank account in Africa?

Author:
Suhaylah Peeraullee, Dominique Dryding, and Kamal Yakubu
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
During his inaugural speech as chairperson of the African Union (AU) for 2022–2023, President Macky Sall of Senegal called for the creation of a pan-African credit-rating agency, arguing that low sovereign ratings discourage investment, raise borrowing costs, and undermin Africa’s competitiveness in global markets (Wanjohi, 2022). Similarly, at the 35th AU Summit in February 2022, President Nana Akufo-Addo of Ghana criticised international credit-rating agencies for their “continuing consequential stranglehold” over African economies, which constrains governments’ access to development finance and increases the cost of capital (African Peer Review Mechanism, 2022, p. 4). These interventions reflect more than episodic political frustration. They point to a broader contest over how African economies are assessed and valued within the global financial system. Ideas about risk and creditworthiness are shaped by historical experience, structural constraints, and unequal power relations, and they in turn influence policy agendas and institutional reform (Jackson, 2021). From this perspective, African leaders’ critiques of the global credit-rating architecture can be read as an effort to assert greater agency over how African economic potential is defined and priced.
Topic:
Economics, Capital, and Banking
Political Geography:
Africa

2869. On a Roll, or Is It a Slide? Alaska’s Budgeting Process in 2024

Author:
Glenn Wright
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
As in 2023, Alaska’s politics seem to be benefitting from a more moderate and collegial policymaking environment and possibly even more sensible budgetary policy. In part, this seems due to Alaska’s adoption of a new election system which in 2022 generated a more moderate set of legislative coalitions than the previous several election cycles. These moderate coalitions may be short-lived, however, as an effort to repeal the new election system is underway. And even with our relatively moderate State House and State Senate coalitions, headwinds and controversies remain, especially issues around public education funding.
Topic:
Education, Budget, Elections, and State Legislature
Political Geography:
North America, Alaska, and United States of America

2870. From aspiration to action: Barriers to youth empowerment in Africa

Author:
Rorisang Lekalake, Sophie Sunderland, and Komi Amewunou
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Africa has the world’s youngest population, with more than 400 million people between the ages of 15 and 35 – a number projected to rise above 830 million by 2050. This sustained youth bulge will keep the continent demographically young for decades, bringing significant challenges as well as opportunities, especially in areas such as jobs, education, and entrepreneurship (African Union, 2025). In this context, Africa’s development trajectory increasingly depends on its ability to participate in the global knowledge economy, where human capital (education and skills) drives productivity, innovation, and competitive advantage (United Nations Economic Commission for Africa & Oxford Economics Africa, 2023). Access to quality education is therefore a critical pathway to employment that provides purpose, dignity, and personal fulfilment – in addition to material security – for the continent’s youth.
Topic:
Economics, Education, Employment, Youth, and Jobs
Political Geography:
Africa

2871. Let the poor breathe! Poverty and anti-government protests in Nigeria

Author:
Daniel Tuki and Hussaini Kwari
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Despite the rising incidence of poverty in Nigeria and the increasing frequency of anti-government protests driven by citizens’ inability to meet their basic food needs, there remains a notable gap in research exploring the link between poverty and protest participation in Nigeria. Drawing on the human needs theory and survey data from Afrobarometer, this study investigates how poverty – both at the individual and communal levels – relates to Nigerians’ willingness to participate in anti government protests. Individual-level poverty is assessed using an index capturing the frequency with which respondents and their household members lacked access to necessities such as food, water, cooking fuel, medicine, and income over the past year. Communal wealth is measured by the mean annual nighttime light intensity within a 30 km radius of respondents’ dwellings. Regression analysis reveals that higher scores on the Lived Poverty Index increase the likelihood of Nigerians having protested in the previous year. Higher poverty scores also increase people’s willingness to participate in future protests and reduce their likelihood of choosing not to protest. Likewise, greater nighttime light intensity decreases individuals’ likelihood of having been involved in past protests, reduces their willingness to participate in future protests, and increases their likelihood of opting not to protest. These results are robust across different operationalisations of protest and to the use of individual survey data covering 36 African countries.
Topic:
Poverty, Governance, Reform, Economy, Protests, and Political Participation
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

2872. Determinants of institutional trust in sub-Saharan Africa: Does media exposure matter?

Author:
Nabilatou A. O. Bouraima, Mamadou Alpha Diallo, and Sylvain Hekponhoue
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
As the main channel for information about institutions and their performance, the media have the potential to influence citizens’ perceptions of them. In recent decades, the media environment has undergone significant change, making different types of information readily available. At the same time, trust in public institutions has declined, weakening democracy and raising concerns about the role of the media in the loss of institutional trust. We argue that in sub-Saharan Africa, where institutions are widely portrayed as underperforming, citizens’ exposure to the media can negatively affect their trust in those institutions. We explore the relationship between media exposure and institutional trust in developing countries using five rounds of Afrobarometer surveys in 35 sub Saharan African countries and secondary data from the World Development Indicators and the Quality of Governance database. Linear hierarchical regression and multilevel regression analyses at individual and country levels show a strong negative relationship between media exposure and institutional trust, though the effect varies across media types. Our findings point to strategies for strengthening institutional trust and legitimacy by improving the quality of governance and economic performance and stepping up the fight against corruption.
Topic:
Development, Media, Institutions, Trust, and Perception
Political Geography:
Africa

2873. Exposure to violent conflict and attitudes toward wife beating in Africa

Author:
Daniel Tuki
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
There is a notable lack of research examining the relationship between exposure to violent conflict and attitudes toward wife beating in Africa. This study addresses that gap by analysing data from rounds 7 and 9 of the Afrobarometer surveys, covering 39 African countries (N=99,267). Exposure to violent conflict is measured by computing the number of conflict incidents within a 30 km radius of respondents’ dwellings. Attitudes toward wife beating are assessed based on survey responses to a question on whether it is ever justifiable for a man to beat his wife. Regression analysis reveals that higher exposure to violent conflict reduces the likelihood of supporting wife beating. This negative correlation persists when the data are disaggregated based on gender and models are estimated using the male and female subsamples. A possible explanation for this finding is that individuals who are exposed to violence are well aware of its devastating effects and hence are more likely to oppose wife beating. Furthermore, areas with high incidences of conflict may have ongoing community programmes focused on reducing violence, promoting peace, and encouraging reconciliation. In such regions, individuals may be more exposed to these initiatives, which could lead to stronger opposition to violent behaviour.
Topic:
Gender Based Violence, Conflict, Intimate Partner Violence, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa

2874. The impact of terrorism on democratic support in Africa

Author:
Souleymane Yameogo and Anja Neundorf
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
How does chronic terrorism affect support for democracy in fragile states? While most research examines isolated attacks in stable democracies, little is known about persistent violence in insecure, weakly institutionalised contexts. This paper addresses that gap by analysing Africa, where terrorism is widespread and democratic transitions remain incomplete. Using Afrobarometer survey data matched with terrorism events, we employ an entropy balancing strategy within an unexpected event-during-survey (UESD) design to estimate causal effects. We find that terrorism consistently undermines democratic support – especially in countries with stronger liberal institutions and lower development. Younger and older citizens are particularly susceptible to attitudinal shifts. These findings highlight how terrorism’s political impact hinges not just on exposure, but also on broader structural vulnerabilities shaped by institutions, development, and demography. The study advances theories of authoritarian reflex and threat perception, offering new insights into sustaining democracy amid chronic insecurity.
Topic:
Security, Development, Terrorism, Democracy, Institutions, and Public Safety
Political Geography:
Africa

2875. Conflict exposure and health-care perceptions: Micro-level evidence from Africa

Author:
Daniel Tuki
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Although considerable research has examined the impact of violent conflict on health outcomes in Africa – such as undernutrition, child mortality, and maternal mortality – a significant gap remains in understanding how it affects individuals’ perceptions of health-care services and the quality of their interactions with health-care staff during hospital visits. This study seeks to address that gap by analysing data from Round 9 of the Afrobarometer survey, conducted across 39 African countries between 2021 and 2023 (n=53,444). Regression analysis indicates that greater exposure to violent conflict is associated with a lower probability of individuals visiting a health-care facility in the past year, likely due to fear of victimisation, which suppresses health-seeking behaviour. Among the subset of respondents who did visit a health-care facility, further analysis shows that conflict exposure is linked to more negative evaluations of the care received. Specifically, it increases the likelihood of individuals reporting poor service quality, experiencing disrespect from health-care staff, and having to pay bribes to access needed care.
Topic:
Armed Conflict, Bribery, Healthcare System, Malnutrition, Child Mortality, and Maternal Mortality
Political Geography:
Africa

2876. Who benefits from bank proximity? Insights on financial inclusion from Afrobarometer surveys in Ethiopia

Author:
Abreham Adera and Roberto Melis
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
The Global Findex survey asks unbanked adults why they do not have a bank account, and many cite the physical distance to bank branches as a key barrier. Does bringing a bank closer encourage them to open an account? To address this question, we analyse data from rounds 8 and 9 of the Afrobarometer survey for Ethiopia. To estimate the causal effect of bank proximity on financial inclusion, we employ propensity score matching (PSM), which compares individuals with similar characteristics but differing access to nearby banks. Overall, we find that bank proximity significantly enhances financial inclusion, with individuals living near a bank being more likely to own an account. Additionally, we find that the effect of bank proximity on financial inclusion is heterogeneous by location and gender. Rural residents (regardless of gender) benefit more than urban residents. Gender differences are evident in urban areas, with women more likely than men to own a bank account. However, in rural areas, women and men benefit equally from bank proximity
Topic:
Governance, Finance, Institutions, Banking, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, and East Africa

2877. Demanding more: Does education increase public backing for good governance in Africa?

Author:
Nnaemeka Ohamadike and Stuart Morrison
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
This paper investigates how education shapes public attitudes toward transparent and accountable governance in Africa. Much of the research on governance and education has focused on Western contexts, leaving the African perspective underexplored. Afrobarometer surveys show that many Africans consistently support transparent and accountable governance, with growing education and awareness of anti-corruption efforts across the continent. Yet little is known about how education influences support for good governance. We investigate this using data from Afrobarometer Round 9 surveys conducted in 39 African countries between late 2021 and mid-2023. Our results show the significant role of education in shaping attitudes: Both greater access to education and country-level measures of higher educational attainment are associated with increased support for good governance. Finally, we highlight the opportunities that arise from this relationship
Topic:
Education, Governance, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Africa

2878. Under-utilised Plants as Future Food – Transforming Food Systems to Enhance Food Security

Author:
Paul Teng
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Under-utilised plants have great potential to be the “future food” that transforms food systems to make them more resilient to climate change and supply chain disruptions. What would it take to mainstream them?
Topic:
Climate Change, Food Security, Supply Chains, and Food Systems
Political Geography:
Asia, Southeast Asia, and Global Focus

2879. Transnational Crime in Cambodia and Indonesia: Strengthening Regional and National Responses

Author:
Jeselyn and Danielle Lynn Goh
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Transnational crime networks in Cambodia and Indonesia have been responsible for heinous cybercrime, including illegal online gambling and scams. These networks target vulnerable populations and undermine human security. Addressing these challenges requires stronger law enforcement cooperation, regulatory reforms, and coordinated regional and national strategies to dismantle the criminal networks.
Topic:
Cybersecurity, Regulation, Gambling, International Crime, Human Security, and Transnational Policing
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Cambodia, and Southeast Asia

2880. Biosecurity in the Age of AI: Risks and Opportunities

Author:
Julius Caesar Trajano and Jeselyn
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Biosecurity has become more complex with the emergence of artificial intelligence-powered biotechnologies. The biotechnology-AI nexus can potentially strengthen biosecurity but amplify biological risks if misused. There is an urgent need for integrated governance frameworks to manage the dual-use nature of AI-powered biotechnology tools and regional cooperation through ASEAN to future-proof biosecurity governance in Southeast Asia.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Biosecurity, Governance, Risk, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

2881. Western countries' sanctions offensive against Russia

Author:
Elżbieta Kaca and Tymon Pastucha
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
The renewed sanctions imposed by the US, the UK and the EU will reduce Russia's ability to finance its military operations by hitting the oil and gas sectors, which still generate around 25% of its budget revenue. The sanctions underscore the US's determination to force Russia to end its invasion of Ukraine. As a consequence, Russia's economic problems will worsen, and its economic and political influence abroad, including in certain EU countries, will diminish. However, the effectiveness of the restrictions will depend on how they are implemented by the US, how they are further tightened — especially against the Russian shadow fleet — and whether secondary sanctions are applied.
Topic:
Sanctions, European Union, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, United Kingdom, Europe, and United States of America

2882. China Trying to Strengthen Dialogue with India

Author:
Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
China sees India as its main rival in Asia. However, the Chinese authorities are maintaining a dialogue with the Indian government, recently even signalling a conciliatory attitude. In this way, they want to prevent an escalation in bilateral relations and try to influence India’s relations with the U.S. and the European Union in a way that is beneficial to China. Although China’s attempts to strengthen dialogue with India are tactical in nature, even a short-term improvement in bilateral relations poses a challenge for the EU. Attempts to reduce Europe’s dependence on China, in which India is to play an important role, are now in question.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
China, Europe, South Asia, India, Asia, and United States of America

2883. Has the War in the Gaza Strip Ended? Chances for Peace

Author:
Michał Wojnarowicz
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
Israel and Hamas have begun talks about ending the war, based on a plan presented by U.S. President Donald Trump. While the first phase—a ceasefire and the exchange of hostages and prisoners—is being implemented, further stages depend on concessions on strategic issues, primarily the disarmament of Hamas and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip. The parties are under greater pressure than before from external partners, as seen at the summit of leaders in Sharm el-Sheikh, which increases the chances of at least partial implementation of the peace plan.
Topic:
Disarmament, Donald Trump, Hamas, Ceasefire, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

2884. In Run-up to Parliamentary Elections, Moldova is Hovering between European Integration and the Unknown

Author:
Jakub Pieńkowski
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
The parliamentary elections scheduled for 28 September will have a decisive impact on Moldova’s continued efforts to integrate with the European Union. Russia has intensified its influence operations to manipulate the results and remove the pro-EU Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) from power. Poll results indicate that PAS may lose its majority, which would likely force it into an unstable minority government or a coalition with Eurosceptic or only nominally pro-Western parties.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, Regional Integration, and Parliament
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Moldova

2885. NATO and the EU Respond to Russian Maritime Sabotage

Author:
Filip Bryjka
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
Since October 2023, Russia has damaged 11 undersea cables and pipelines in the Baltic Sea. In response, NATO launched the Baltic Sentry mission, allies began inspecting tankers belonging to the “shadow fleet”, and the EU imposed sanctions on some of them. As a result, further incidents have been prevented since the beginning of 2025, but Russia is escalating the situation by using drones for provocations. NATO and EU countries should take more decisive action against the “shadow fleet” and strengthen cooperation with private operators of critical infrastructure.
Topic:
NATO, European Union, Maritime, Sabotage, Russia-Ukraine War, and Critical Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

2886. Kenyan Mission to Haiti Demonstrates Revival of African-Caribbean Cooperation

Author:
Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
On 2 October, the mandate of the Kenya-led stabilisation mission in Haiti will expire. Its undertaking was the clearest example of growing African-Caribbean cooperation. The two regions also intend to intensify economic cooperation, as well as work more closely together to obtain reparations for the colonial period, as indicated by participants at the second African Union (AU)-Caribbean Community (CARICOM) summit in Addis Ababa.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Economic Cooperation, African Union, Stabilization, and Caribbean Community (CARICOM)
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, Caribbean, and Haiti

2887. EU Cooperation with the International Criminal Court

Author:
Stefania Kolarz
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
For years, the EU has consistently supported the International Criminal Court (ICC), considering it one of the key elements in promoting human rights, humanitarian law and justice around the world. The uneven commitment of states to cooperation with the Court, successive decisions to denounce its Statute, and the sanctions imposed on the ICC by Donald Trump's administration are all hampering its functioning, but have not been met with a firm response from the EU.
Topic:
Human Rights, European Union, International Criminal Court (ICC), and International Humanitarian Law (IHL)
Political Geography:
Europe and United States of America

2888. China Launches the International Organisation for Mediation

Author:
Stefania Kolarz and Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
China is introducing the International Organisation for Mediation (IOMed), which became operational on 29 August, as a complement to the international dispute resolution system. In practice, it is another initiative to gather countries of the Global South around China and intended to be a counterweight to international institutions they consider to be dominated by Western countries.
Topic:
Global South, International Institutions, Dispute Resolution, and International Organization for Mediation (IOMed)
Political Geography:
China and Asia

2889. EU Clean Industry Deal: Strengthening Competitiveness in Green

Author:
Kinga Dudzińska
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
In the face of increasing trade pressure from the United States and growing competition from China, the European Union announced actions to rebuild the competitiveness of European industry, as included in the Clean Industry Deal (CID). Increasing the EU’s economic independence while maintaining ambitious climate goals will be a challenge for the industry, especially if electrification based on renewable sources is assumed. Therefore, solutions supporting the attractiveness to businesses of EU production will be decisive, including through efficient deregulation and reduction of energy prices and especially in view of the growing dynamics of changes in the structure of global markets. The EU’s flexible and adaptive approach to the energy transformation will be important here, in particular for countries still dependent on fossil sources, such as Poland.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, European Union, Industry, and Clean Industry Deal (CID)
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and United States of America

2890. Reforming the EU Energy Market to Increase Competitiveness and Resilience

Author:
Kinga Dudzińska
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
Intensifying tensions in global trade and China’s growing competitive advantage mean that the European Union faces an urgent need to provide more decisive support for the development of its own economy. The implementation of the electricity market reform (EMD), approved in May 2024, is of particular importance. It was initiated in response to the need to reduce energy prices, which directly impact, among other things, the investment attractiveness of the EU and its competitiveness. Maintaining energy market stability and subsidy guarantees may, however, make it difficult to achieve the EU’s ambitious climate goals, which the European Commission is even tightening.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, European Union, Electricity, Resilience, Economic Competition, and Energy Markets
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

2891. With Australia's General Election Settled, It is a Good Opportunity for Closer EU Engagement

Author:
Patryk Kugiel
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
The Labour Party’s victory in the 3 May general election guarantees a continuation of Australia’s foreign policy, including its continued support for Ukraine. Uncertainty in relations with the U.S. and ongoing tensions with China open up opportunities to bring Australia closer to European partners, including the EU. It is in the mutual interest of the two like-minded partners to swiftly complete the negotiation of a free trade agreement and enhance strategic and defence cooperation. It is also an opportunity to intensify the Polish-Australian political dialogue.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Elections, European Union, and Political Engagement
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Australia

2892. Authoritarianism On the Rise in Georgia

Author:
Stefania Kolarz and Wojciech Wojtasiewicz
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
The ruling Georgian Dream (GD) has continually pushed through legal changes to consolidate power. Among other things, Georgia’s mono-party parliament adopted a law on so-called foreign agents and introduced a requirement for government approval to fund non-governmental organisations (NGOs) with foreign grants. GD also announced the outlawing of the pro-Western opposition by the end of this year. In the following months, a tightening of the state’s authoritarian course is to be expected and therefore its further retreat from Euro-Atlantic cooperation.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Domestic Politics, NGOs, Parliament, and Georgian Dream Party
Political Geography:
Caucasus and Georgia

2893. China Cautious about Participation in UN Peacekeeping, also in Ukraine

Author:
Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
The Chinese contingent in UN peacekeeping operations is the largest among the permanent members of the Security Council. The deaths of Chinese soldiers on these missions, as well as the low effectiveness of some of the operations, have made China cautious about its involvement in further ventures and seeking to change their operational rules. Together with the general distrust of China by the Ukrainian authorities and European states because of its support for Russia, the experience with peacekeeping will significantly affect the Chinese calculations regarding the potential deployment of Chinese troops to Ukraine after a possible ceasefire.
Topic:
United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Ukraine, and Asia

2894. U.S. Prepares for a Nuclear Energy Renaissance

Author:
Tymon Pastucha
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
President Donald Trump’s announced “nuclear energy renaissance” is a response to the failure of previous reforms, growing energy demand (driven by AI), his lack of support for renewables, and the weakening U.S. technological position in nuclear energy relative to China and Russia. The changes would focus on reforming nuclear oversight, increasing the role of the Department of Defense, accelerating technology deployment, developing the nuclear workforce, and producing domestic nuclear fuel. Enhanced funding and assertive export diplomacy may encourage new investments in partner countries.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Energy Policy, Artificial Intelligence, Donald Trump, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2895. A Georgia Led by Georgian Dream Looks to the East

Author:
Wojciech Wojtasiewicz
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
Georgia’s international isolation has deepened since last year’s parliamentary elections in the country. European countries and the United States are introducing sanctions against the Georgian authorities for their ongoing repression of anti-government demonstrations and crackdown on NGOs, free media, and the opposition. With the retreat from cooperation with the U.S. and the EU, Georgia is increasingly more dependent on Russia and China.
Topic:
Elections, Protests, Repression, Parliament, and Georgian Dream Party
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Caucasus, Georgia, and United States of America

2896. Disinformation Actors Already Targeting AI

Author:
Tomasz Wójtowicz
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
Artificial intelligence (AI) is already widely used by spreaders of disinformation. While initially the greatest concern was the use of deepfakes, a growing threat is the manipulation of generative AI models, including by tampering with the datasets on which they are trained to get them to publish false or misleading content. Key to building resilience is securing datasets, strengthening moderation, and adapting EU and national regulations to new challenges.
Topic:
European Union, Artificial Intelligence, Resilience, Disinformation, and Generative Models
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

2897. Transparency portals in development cooperation: more effectiveness and better communication?

Author:
Heiner Janus and Tim Röthel
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Transparency portals in development cooperation serve two main functions: accountability to a specialist audience and communication with the wider public. In this policy brief, we conduct an international comparison to demonstrate how transparency portals could better fulfill these requirements. As part of a broader effectiveness agenda, donors are pursuing the goal of greater transparency. In line with this international agenda, transparency is intended to promote learning and improve predictability for partner countries, as well as combatting corruption and fulfilling accountability requirements. Taken together, these factors can contribute to greater development effectiveness. Donors also hope that their work will receive greater public support. By providing detailed information, experts will be better able to assess the quality of development projects. The aim is to initiate a process of learning and improvement, and to convince the general public that taxpayers' money is being used effectively. Citizens can use the portals to understand project content and develop their own views. However, current debates suggest a more complex dynamic. The “Bike Lanes in Peru” project caused a scandal in Germany. Against the backdrop of the closure of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), individual projects became politicized. Accordingly, transparency portals can also have unintended consequences. For example, information can be taken out of context, leading to misunderstandings and legitimate criticism of individual projects going unanswered. Donors can mitigate these negative effects by redesigning transparency portals. In times of declining approval ratings and cuts to development budgets, they should use the portals to communicate in a targeted manner and demonstrate a greater willingness to engage in honest debate. The following recommendations could help with this: • Even greater transparency of impact data: Although progress is being made in transparent reporting on project content and financial data, detailed project data on impact measurement and results, as set out in logical frameworks (logframes), is lacking. Increasing transparency in this area could improve development effectiveness. • Additional investment in communication: Information that is provided in accordance with internationally comparable standards must be translated for a lay audience. In many donor countries, a large proportion of the population has no fixed positive or negative attitude towards development cooperation. Targeted, group-oriented communication should appeal to these people more directly. • Openness to criticism and discourse: Development policy actors often resist critical examination of their work in public debate. They tend to respond defensively to criticism, whether general or specific. However, informed discussions based on project data from the portals offer an opportunity to openly discuss ineffective projects and, if necessary, replace them with effective ones.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, and Transparency
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2898. E-government tools, authoritarian propaganda, and regime support: experimental evidence from Turkey

Author:
Semuhi Sinanoglu and Armin von Schiller
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
How do e-government tools that enable direct online communication with the executive affect citizens' support for autocracy? On the one hand, such centralized digital government tools may sway public opinion in favor of strongman rule at the expense of autocratic institutions; on the other hand, such participation and responsiveness may unintentionally unveil a wide range of issues in the country, undermining trust in the regime. We examine an electronic platform in Turkey, CIMER, that allows citizens to submit petitions and complaints, send messages to the president, and propose policies and programs. We conducted a well-powered online survey experiment with a nationally representative sample (N≈4,600) that estimates the effects of different types of regime propaganda around this e-portal on attitudinal and quasi-behavioral outcomes. The results suggest that propaganda through CIMER improves diffuse support for the regime and generates behavioral compliance, even among opposition voters. However, these positive effects accrue to regime institutions rather than to Erdoğan personally as the executive's personalistic leader. On certain dimensions, the propaganda backfires among the regime's core support groups, eroding their perceptions of Erdoğan's popularity as a leader. These results have major implications for the expected downstream effects of these types of digital tools on regime stability and legitimacy, and they add to the growing warnings about holding overly optimistic views concerning the effects of digitalization on democracy.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Propaganda, Digitalization, and E-Government
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

2899. Social acceptance of social transfer policies: the role of climate vulnerabilities and policy design

Author:
Stefanie Roost
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
This paper examines how citizens in a large middle-income country evaluate the design of cash transfer programs, and whether these preferences shift when vulnerability is framed as climate-induced. Using a pre-registered online survey in Brazil, we combined a multi-attribute conjoint experiment with a climate information treatment. Respondents evaluated programs varying in benefit level, eligibility, conditionalities, implementing actor, payment schedule and financing. Support depends strongly on perceived fairness and financing choices. Expanding eligibility from extreme poverty to poverty substantially increases approval, while further expansion yields no additional gains. Conditionalities (in particular, empowering ones, such as financial training or health check-ups) increase support, whereas work requirements have heterogeneous effects across different social groups. Financing through personal income tax or cuts to existing programs enjoys lower levels of approval, while corporate taxation and subsidy reductions are more acceptable. Climate information modestly increases solidarity attitudes but does not eliminate underlying ideological divides. This study highlights how citizens update not only the extent but also the preferred form of redistribution under climate stress.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Poverty, and Cash Transfers
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, and Global Focus

2900. Should we be concerned about European competitiveness?

Author:
Olivier Perquel
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
At the end of the year 2025, all economic players agree that Europe's economic and financial situation is worrying, and that there are many issues at stake. However, it is no doubt worth trying to list them, by presenting a few figures, and highlighting some avenues for recovery, or a new start.
Topic:
Economics, European Union, Finance, and Productivity
Political Geography:
Europe