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2701. Education and Africa’s Structural Transformation: Human Capital, Partnerships, and the Case for a Pan-African Movement

Author:
Pedro Silva Baptista
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
This paper examines how education can drive structural transformation and sustainable development in Africa, emphasising human capital and international partnerships. Using empirical data, it explores how aligning education with labour market needs and local realities can help unlock the continent’s demographic dividend. Key challenges include learning poverty, outdated curricula, and weak teacher training. Nonetheless, targeted investment in STEM, vocational training, and renewable energy offers opportunities for innovation and job creation. The PanAfrican Education Movement is presented as a catalyst for change, advocating curriculum reform, integration of indigenous knowledge, gender-responsive budgeting (GRB), and sector-specific skills development with targeted interventions for girls’ education. The study highlights the role of international partnerships— especially with the EU—in supporting digital inclusion, infrastructure, and governance. Combining quantitative indicators and policy analysis, it proposes a multisectoral strategy grounded in the Triple Helix model to strengthen collaboration between academia, industry, and government for education-led development.
Topic:
Education, European Union, Partnerships, Human Capital, Pan-Africanism, and Structural Transformation
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe

2702. The Adaptation of Land Forces to the New Multipolar Order

Author:
Ricardo J. Vieira
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
The adaptation of land forces to the new multipolar order is essential for understanding the current dynamics of the International System. This essay analyses the relationship between shifts in global polarity and the reorganisation of land forces, investigating whether strategic competition is driving a return to a conventional era. The research findings indicate that the unipolar era favoured disarmament policies, whereas multipolarity has intensified geopolitical tensions, making military power a central element of state security. The rise of revisionist powers, such as Russia and China, has reinforced the need for conventional rearmament. The 2022 invasion of Ukraine exemplifies this transition, highlighting the renewed relevance of land forces and conventional logistics. A mechanised, division-level military structure has replaced the expeditionary model of the unipolar era. It is concluded that multipolarity drives conventional militarisation, although other factors may also influence this trend.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Military Affairs, Multipolarity, International System, and Superpowers
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Iran, Ukraine, Middle East, and Asia

2703. Overtourism: A Local and International Challenge to the Iberian Peninsula and Italy

Author:
Maria Antónia Pires de Almeida
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
Tourism is an agent of climate change. It transforms land use and favours CO2 emissions, especially due to air travel. It consumes large amounts of water, particularly groundwater, to irrigate golf fields and supply swimming pools and water parks. In some regions, the relevant stakeholders are not concerned about environmental and sustainability matters. Particularly in the South of Portugal, where tourism is one of the main economic activities. Several Civil Society Organisations and NGO in Portugal, Spain, and Italy are raising awareness and confronting authorities. They advocate a more sustainable tourist model. How are central and local governments addressing the overtourism problem? With research on legislation and current negotiations, as well as content analysis of the press and social media, this article aims to identify and describe major concerns, proposals and solutions regarding tourism.
Topic:
Water, Tourism, Protests, Public Policy, Housing, Local Government, and Overtourism
Political Geography:
Europe, Spain, Italy, and Portugal

2704. Revisiting Alexis de Tocqueville's Civil Society Concept from a PoliticalEconomic Perspective

Author:
Ali Erdem Başçoban
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
This study aims to re-examine the civil and political associations of Alexis de Tocqueville, who is seen as one of the founders of the concept of civil society in the modern sense. With a historical approach to Alexis de Tocqueville's conceptualization of civil society, it is claimed that there is a cleavage between his views on civil society then and civil society in the modern sense and by employing this historical perspective, the study aims to demonstrate the separation between political - civil associations and the state coincides with the distinction of the political and economic spheres. To make the paper's central argument clear, it is argued that the concept of civil society contributed to regulating the political sphere in the political-economic distinction created by capitalism. Through this regulation, it is claimed that the specific understanding of civil society was in harmony with the social conditions from which American capitalism emerged. The study argues that civil society cannot be seen as separate from the state, politics and economy by reading the civil society debates on the axis of Alexis de Tocqueville and capitalism.
Topic:
Civil Society, Economics, Politics, Capitalism, and Alexis de Tocqueville
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2705. Faith and gender: Evidence-building for GBV prevention in Africa and Latin America. SVRI Community of Practice – Working Group 1 on Evidence-Building

Author:
Rafael Cazarin and Sinethemba Makanya
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Sexual Violence Research Initiative (SVRI)
Abstract:
The Working Group 1 on Evidence-Building was initially created in October 2024 by an executive research team: Rafael Cazarin, Sinethemba Makanya, Nobantu Shabangu and Leonardo Andrade. Led by the intention to build a Community of Practise that would speak back to the ideals of the Sexual Violence Research Initiative, the CoP was informed by the main goal to connect practise-based narrative evidence from experts to inform policies on gender-based violence (GBV) prevention with faith actors and religious communities in the Global South. In the months following the CoP inception about 150 members joined the Working Group 1 CoP on LinkedIn. Members from various organisations contributed to building empirical evidence for GBV prevention in faith and religion contexts through a series of monthly online activities, including roundtable discussions, focus groups, a virtual learning webinar and a special blog series for the SVRI blog page. This report presents key findings from five focus groups with members of Working Group 1 (WG1), focused on gender-based violence (GBV) prevention in faith-based and religious settings. The discussions pursued two main goals: first, to identify region-specific challenges and methodological gaps across the Global South, while also highlighting opportunities and sustainable practises at the intersection of faith and GBV prevention; and second, to explore critical themes—such as SOGIESC, youth and masculinities, and local cultural and religious dynamics—to support the development of more inclusive and context-sensitive policies and practises.
Topic:
Religion, Gender Based Violence, Sexual Violence, Faith, and Violence Prevention
Political Geography:
Africa and Latin America

2706. SVRI Community of Practice on Faith and GBV. Enhancing communication between faith actors and policymakers on gender-based violence in Africa

Author:
Nora Khalaf-Elledge and Sarah Marsso
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Sexual Violence Research Initiative (SVRI)
Abstract:
Gender-based violence (GBV) remains a significant global issue, requiring locally grounded and multifaceted responses. Faith-based actors hold influential roles in shaping cultural norms and social behaviours, positioning them as key stakeholders in efforts to address GBV. However, a gap in communication between faith leaders and policymakers often leads to ineffective policies, fragmented survivor support, and the persistence of harmful practices. This policy brief underscores the critical necessity of fostering robust, meaningful dialogue and collaboration between these two groups to tackle GBV. It outlines the risks associated with inadequate communication or lack thereof, highlights the potential benefits of strengthened dialogue, provides actionable recommendations for building bridges, and uses targeted, research-informed examples to illustrate these points, ultimately aiming to create more comprehensive and socially relevant solutions to GBV. While the brief centres African experiences and voices—particularly those from the field —it acknowledges that both GBV and the communication challenges it explores are not unique to Africa. These dynamics occur globally, and the insights presented here aim to inform broader, cross-contextual learning.
Topic:
Communications, Gender Based Violence, Faith, and Policymaking
Political Geography:
Africa

2707. Child safety in faith communities: Moving from words to actions

Author:
Selina Palm
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Sexual Violence Research Initiative (SVRI)
Abstract:
This learning brief forms part of SVRI’s Community of Practice on Faith and Gender-based violence. Its insights emerge from discussions with 30 participants within a newly designed three-month virtual course – Faith and Helping Children Thrive without Violence. This course was co-designed and piloted as a main activity of its 325-member working group from over 60 countries in 6 continents1 . It centres the lived experiences, stories and practice-based knowledge of selected working group members through structured learning dialogues in early 2025 between participants around 32 short audio-visual contributions which focused specifically on faith and violence against children, and which were provided by other working group members. This brief draws on their voices and insights from diverse faith traditions and countries around the world as well as offering access to videos (5-10 minutes each) from just four of the course contributors that formed the course backbone. Whilst many faith institutions are developing child safeguarding policies, practitioners insist that more work needs to be done to ensure these paper policies translate into practice through building a shared culture of safeguarding if faith institutions are to move from words alone to action.
Topic:
Children, Gender Based Violence, Faith, and Safeguarding
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2708. Final Report: Developing research priorities on GBV in higher education institutions (HEIs) in low- and middle-income countries

Author:
SVRI
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Sexual Violence Research Initiative (SVRI)
Abstract:
Gender-based violence (GBV) in higher education institutions (HEIs) is a widespread yet understudied issue in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), particularly in Africa and the Middle East. While GBV in HEIs has received growing attention globally, most evidence originates from high-income countries. This study, led by the Sexual Violence Research Initiative (SVRI) with support from the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), addresses critical evidence and policy gaps in LMIC contexts through a comprehensive, multi-method research project. The study includes a scoping review of literature, a nested policy study, and a research priority-setting exercise.
Topic:
International Development, Gender Based Violence, and Higher Education
Political Geography:
Africa and Middle East

2709. Preventing violence early: Evidence from school-based programmes in low and middle-income countries

Author:
Cassandra Carels, Kelly Gemmell, Stefani du Tolt, Anushka Nair, and Yushra Dinnie
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Sexual Violence Research Initiative (SVRI)
Abstract:
This research brief, developed by a research team from the Institute for Life Course Health Research at Stellenbosch University, summarises the results of a systematic review and evidence gap map on school-based GBV prevention programmes in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). This will strengthen evidence-based policymaking around school-based prevention of GBV in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and other LMICs.
Topic:
Development, Gender Based Violence, Policymaking, and Middle-Income Countries
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2710. The New Crusades: Islamophobia and the Global War on Muslims with Khaled Beydoun (Episode 43)

Author:
Khaled A. Beydoun and Sahar Aziz
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:
Islamophobia functions as a transnational political strategy weaponized by both democratic and authoritarian regimes worldwide. The American War on Terror has served as a crucial catalyst, amplifying and connecting anti-Muslim campaigns across continents—from Europe and Asia to the Middle East and beyond. There are striking parallels between seemingly disparate anti-Muslim policies in different countries, exposing how these measures share common ideological foundations despite emerging from vastly different political systems. This comprehensive global perspective shifts understanding of Islamophobia from isolated incidents to a coordinated, worldwide phenomenon with profound implications for international relations, human rights, and Muslim communities. This episode explores the systematic targeting of Muslim populations across diverse geopolitical contexts, with an analysis of how Islamophobia manifests differently across cultural and political landscapes. In his dialogue with Professor Sahar Aziz, Khaled Beydoun unpacks the complex historical, legal, and social dimensions that have enabled anti-Muslim sentiment to become institutionalized in diverse societies. His examination goes beyond theoretical frameworks to reveal the lived experiences of Muslims facing discrimination, surveillance, and violence worldwide. His work challenges conventional understandings of religious freedom and state power while offering insights into resistance strategies emerging within affected communities. Join Sahar Aziz and Khaled Beydoun for a conversation about one of the most pressing human rights issues of our time, as they explore both the troubling scope of global Islamophobia and potential paths toward countering its influence.
Topic:
Genocide, Human Rights, Islamophobia, and Muslims
Political Geography:
Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Global Focus

2711. Psychoanalysis Under Occupation: Practicing Resistance in Palestine with Lara Sheehi (Episode 44)

Author:
Sahar Aziz and Lara Sheehi
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:
"Psychoanalysis Under Occupation: Practicing Resistance in Palestine" examines the profound concept of sumud—psychological resilience and defiance—within the context of Palestinian life under occupation and settler colonialism. This episode explores psychoanalytic frameworks that illuminate the complex psychological expressions of both individual and collective endurance in circumstances of ongoing trauma and oppression. Clinical case studies reveal the sophisticated ways Palestinian mental health practitioners and communities navigate lives marked by systematic violence while actively resisting the narrative of victimhood. Moving beyond conventional human rights discourse, we will uncover how psychological resistance manifests as a form of political and existential assertion, offering new perspectives on trauma, healing, and identity in contexts of prolonged conflict. Dr. Lara Sheehi brings her groundbreaking research to this episode, offering listeners rare insights into how psychoanalytic practice functions as both healing modality and resistance strategy in occupied Palestine. In her dialogue with Professor Sahar Aziz, Dr. Sheehi presents powerful clinical examples that demonstrate how Palestinian clinicians and their clients maintain dignity and agency despite overwhelming structural violence. Her analysis challenges traditional Western psychological frameworks that often fail to account for political realities and collective trauma responses. Join Sahar Aziz and Dr. Sheehi for this essential conversation about how mental health practices can honor Palestinian lived experiences while contributing to broader movements for justice and liberation in contexts of ongoing oppression.
Topic:
Trauma, Mental Health, Resilience, Resistance, and Psychoanalysis
Political Geography:
Middle East and Palestine

2712. To Stand with Palestine with Professor Karam Dana (10/9/2025)

Author:
Karam Dana
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:
Professor Dana will discuss his book To Stand with Palestine: Transnational Resistance and Political Evolution in the United States that provides a new lens on activism around Palestinian issues, demonstrating how the global Palestinian diaspora has driven transnational political movements. Karam Dana explores the ways that exile has shaped Palestinian identity and allowed for new forms of global activism. He examines the social, political, economic, and technological forces that have created space for Palestinian voices to be heard by wider audiences worldwide.
Topic:
Diaspora, Identity, Palestinians, and Transnational Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

2713. The West, Israel and Settler Colonization of Palestine with Joseph Massad (Episode 45)

Author:
Joseph Massad and Sahar Aziz
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:
There is a critical need for a comprehensive examination of the historical forces that have shaped the Palestinian-Israeli conflict from its colonial origins to the present day. Professor Joseph Massad has meticulously analyzed Western imperial involvement in Palestine, tracing the pivotal events that preceded and followed Israel's establishment. European colonial ambitions and policies have created the foundation for ongoing tensions in the region, demonstrating historical patterns of Western imperial expansion. Massad's perspective reveals the often-overlooked continuities between historical colonial projects and contemporary geopolitical realities, offering listeners a framework that challenges conventional narratives about the Middle East. A deep appreciation of the colonial roots of the powers influencing the region’s political makeup is needed to better understand the complex intersection of power, identity, and territorial claims that continue to define the Palestinian experience. Professor Joseph Massad offers listeners rare insights drawn from decades of research on Middle Eastern history and politics. His analysis moves beyond simplified accounts to reveal the sophisticated interplay between Western imperial interests, Zionist aspirations, and Palestinian resistance throughout the past century. This approach confronts uncomfortable historical truths while providing a nuanced understanding of how external interventions have fundamentally shaped the region's trajectory. Join Sahar Aziz and Professor Joseph Massad for a conversation that adds necessary historical context to understand one of the world's most persistent conflict and the underlying tie to Western colonial desires.
Topic:
Imperialism, History, Zionism, Settler Colonialism, and Resistance
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

2714. From Apartheid to Democracy: A Blueprint for Peace in Israel-Palestine (11/5/2025)

Author:
Michael Omer-Man and Sarah Whitson
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:
From Apartheid to Democracy: A Blueprint for Peace in Israel-Palestine with Michael Omer-Man & Sarah Leah Whitson (11/5/2025) For more than three decades, the illusion of a two-state solution under the auspices of the Oslo Accords has allowed Israel to maintain a one-state reality of permanent occupation and apartheid. Michael Schaeffer Omer-Man and Sarah Leah Whitson challenge this approach, presenting a road map to end these crimes and create a rights-respecting regime for everyone now living under Israeli control. Only once basic safety and legal equality are assured can Jewish Israelis and Palestinians determine their futures—in one, two, or more states if they choose—through an inclusive, democratic process. Breaking with the failures of the past, the plan presented here makes clear that ongoing violations of basic human rights must be ended before issues of governance can be equitably addressed. Clear-eyed yet hopeful, Omer-Man and Whitson offer proof of concept that democracy and equality are indeed attainable—and call on the international community to create the conditions required for them to flourish.
Topic:
Apartheid, Human Rights, Democracy, Occupation, Oslo Accords, and Self-Determination
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

2715. Leveraging Resource Capacity: Asian Medical Resource Mobilization During COVID-19

Author:
Wei-Ting Yen
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
September 15, 2025 — Dr. Wei-Ting Yen examines how South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore, three developmental states, adopted distinct medical resource strategies during the early phase of COVID-19. She argues that differences in pre-crisis industrial coordination capacity shaped whether and how states prioritized test kits, masks, or vaccines. Her talk draws on comparative cases and process tracing to highlight domestic production capacity as a key institutional driver of rapid crisis. Speaker: Dr. Wei-Ting Yen is an assistant research fellow at the Institute of Political Science at Academia Sinica. Previously, she was an assistant professor of the Government Department at Franklin and Marshall College and was recognized as a Mellon High Impact Emerging Scholar. Dr. Yen studies democratic governance, comparative political economy, and the welfare state in Asia. Her work explores how economic insecurity shapes welfare development. She also studies the politics of COVID-19 in comparative angle. Part of the 2025-2026 Weatherhead East Asian Institute lecture series "COVID-19 Governance and Impacts: China from Comparative Perspectives." Hosted by the Weatherhead East Asian Institute and cosponsored by the Columbia China Center for Social Policy and the Andrew J. Nathan Taiwan Lecture Series.
Topic:
Crisis Management, Public Health, Industry, COVID-19, and Production
Political Geography:
Taiwan, Asia, South Korea, and Singapore

2716. Fallout: The Inside Story of America’s Failure to Disarm North Korea — A Book Talk by Joel S. Wit

Author:
Joel S. Wit and Barbara Demick
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
Delivered on November 7, 2025, Joel S. Wit discusses his new book, "Fallout: The Inside Story of America’s Failure to Disarm North Korea". Wit examines why U.S. efforts to halt North Korea’s nuclear ambitions have repeatedly fallen short, reconstructing nearly four decades of high-stakes negotiations and secret diplomatic exchanges. Based on more than 300 interviews with policymakers in Washington, Beijing, Seoul, and Pyongyang, the book uncovers the pressures, missteps, and missed opportunities that shaped U.S.–DPRK nuclear diplomacy. Wit challenges common narratives by presenting Kim Jong Un not as irrational, but as a calculated strategist using nuclear escalation as leverage. He also argues that policy shifts under the Obama and Trump administrations accelerated North Korea’s nuclear capabilities, transforming the North into a direct threat to every major U.S. city. Speaker: Joel S. Wit, Distinguished Fellow in Asian and Security Studies, The Stimson Center Moderator: Barbara Demick, journalist and author of "Nothing to Envy" (2009) and "Daughters of the Bamboo Grove" (2025)
Topic:
Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Disarmament, Negotiation, and Book Talk
Political Geography:
Asia, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

2717. Generation Xi: Youth Attitudes Toward Civic Engagement in China

Author:
Jessica C. Teets and Qin Gao
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
November 14, 2025 — Jessica Teets presents findings on how China’s “COVID generation,” youth who came of age during lockdowns, are reshaping norms of civic engagement. Drawing on original survey data from the Civic Participation in China Surveys (2018-2024), she explores shifting attitudes toward volunteering, local governance, and state-society relations across generational lines. Speaker: Jessica C. Teets is a Professor at Middlebury College, and Guang Biao Distinguished Chair Professor at Zhejiang University. Her research focuses on governance in authoritarian regimes, especially the role of civic participation. She is the author of "Civil Society Under Authoritarianism: The China Model" (Cambridge University Press, 2014) and has a new book manuscript (with Dr. Xiang Gao) under review on changing governance under Xi Jinping, tentatively titled "Beyond Fragmented Authoritarianism." Moderator: Qin Gao, Maurice V. Russell Professor of Social Policy and Social Work Practice; Acting Director of the Asian American Initiative; Associate Dean for Doctoral Education; Director of China Center for Social Policy, Columbia School of Social Work
Topic:
Governance, Xi Jinping, COVID-19, and Civic Engagement
Political Geography:
China and Asia

2718. Status Recognition and Great Power Conflicts Today: The US, China, and Russia

Author:
Thomas J. Christensen and T.V. Paul
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
October 17, 2025 — The violent conflict in Ukraine triggered by Russia, China’s drift away from a “peaceful rise” strategy, and America’s near abandonment of liberal leadership have created deep uncertainty. T. V. Paul's new book project asks: Under what conditions do great powers abandon or significantly alter relatively peaceful grand strategies for reasons of status? It examines how strategic interaction between great powers—and the pivotal role of domestic coalitions—shapes expectations of status reciprocity and recognition leading to great power conflicts. The author of multiple books, T. V. Paul is the Distinguished James McGill Professor in the Department of Political Science at McGill University. Moderator Thomas J. Christensen is James T. Shotwell Professor of International Relations at the School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University and the Director of its China and the World Program.
Topic:
Grand Strategy, International Order, Russia-Ukraine War, and Great Powers
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2719. Bilahari Kausikan: The Cold War, Russia-China Relations, and the Making (and Unmaking?) of SE Asia

Author:
Andrew J. Nathan, Alexander Cooley, and Bilahari Kausikan
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
April 8, 2025 — For the 2025 Borton-Mosely Distinguished Lecture at Columbia University, veteran Singaporean diplomat Bilahari Kausikan shares his insights into how the Cold War and the rivalry between China and the U.S.S.R. gave rise to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the federation of states that was founded in 1967 to promote regional stability—and how ASEAN, in turn, helped shape the idea of Southeast Asia as a cohesive region with its own identity. Moderators: Andrew J. Nathan, Class of 1919 Professor of Political Science, Department of Political Science, Columbia University; Alexander Cooley, Vice Provost for Research, Libraries, and Academic Centers, Barnard College; Claire Tow Professor of Political Science, Barnard College; Harriman Institute, Columbia University.
Topic:
Cold War, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, ASEAN, Rivalry, and Regional Stability
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Eurasia, Asia, and Southeast Asia

2720. Increasing Taiwan’s Resilience: Policy Options and Debates

Author:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
November 5 , 2025 — Experts from the Research Institute for Democracy, Society, and Emerging Technology (DSET) deliver presentations on Taiwan’s economic security, national security, democratic governance, and energy resilience; various dimensions of Taiwan’s vulnerabilities in the face of PRC pressure; and policy options to increase societal resilience, as seen by a think tank. The Research Institute for Democracy, Society, and Emerging Technologies (DSET), a think tank established in October 2023 under the National Science and Technology Council, addresses techno-geopolitical challenges facing Taiwan. Its mission is to advise the Taiwanese government and public through report publications and international forums while developing a Track 1.5 think tank diplomacy to facilitate international cooperation with Taiwan. DSET has four research programs: Economic Security, Democratic Governance, National Security, and Energy Security & Climate Resilience.
Topic:
National Security, Governance, Democracy, Resilience, Economic Security, and Energy
Political Geography:
Taiwan and Asia

2721. Bureaucracies at War: China’s Decision-Making in Comparative Perspective

Author:
Tyler Jost and Andrew J. Nathan
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
October 1, 2025 — When are China’s leaders able to extract quality information from their diplomatic, defense and intelligence bureaucracies during international crises? Tyler Jost studies how China’s leaders deal with the trade-off between institutional designs that offer political security and those that yield quality information. As an illustration, he uses the historical cases of the 1969 Sino-Soviet border conflict and the 1999 India-Pakistan Kargil War. Speaker: Tyler Jost, Watson Institute Assistant Professor of China Studies, Assistant Professor of Political Science, International and Public Affairs, Brown University Moderator: Andrew J. Nathan, Class of 1919 Professor of Political Science, Department of Political Science, Columbia University
Topic:
Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Intelligence, Armed Conflict, and Political Security
Political Geography:
China and Asia

2722. The Question of Postcolonial Fascism in Cold War Korea

Author:
Sungik Yang
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
October 9, 2025 — Professor Sungik Yang examines how fascist ideologies persisted beyond WWII in postcolonial contexts. Focusing on Korea after 1945, he traces how nationalist discouses emphasizing ethnic purity and rejecting Western liberalism paralleled European and Japanese fascism. These ideas underpinned authoritarian regimes well into the 1980s, offering new insights into fascism as a global and enduring phenomenon. Speaker: Sungik Yang, Assistant Professor, School of Historical, Philosophical and Religious Studies (SHPRS), Arizona State University Moderator: Hetty Ye-Jae Lee, Ph.D. Candidate, Department of East Asian Languages and Cultures (EALAC), Columbia University
Topic:
Nationalism, Post Colonialism, Fascism, and Liberalism
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

2723. Governance Compared: Autocracy and Democracy in Latin America

Author:
Sarah Yerkes, Natalie Triche, and Amr Hamzawy
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The past several years have witnessed a dramatic democratic decline around the world. In both established democracies and hybrid regimes, anti-democratic and populist forces have challenged the notion that democracies are better for their citizens.1 Leaving aside values-driven arguments, authoritarian and populist leaders have touted the narrative that they are better at delivering to their citizens’ needs than democratic leaders. They then use such arguments to justify rolling back the rule of law and eroding checks and balances where they exist, while preventing either from taking root where they are not already present.2 While this narrative may hold weight with some citizens, its legitimacy has not been tested.3 That is, we do not know who is better at governing—autocrats or democrats. Repression and chilling environments for free expression, often found in autocracies, contribute to a lack of critical appraisals of governance deliverables. Thus, comparisons with democratic societies that permit vocal disdain for governance performance can be difficult.4 Additionally, lack of free access to information and limited pluralist deliberations about government policy enable autocracies to mystify their governance performance and hide their failings, thus manipulating the constrained political discussions that do occur among citizens.5 To critically evaluate claims that autocratic states are better at governance than democratic states, especially in the Global South, we designed a project comparing governance outputs in four regions of the world: the Middle East and North Africa; eastern, western, and southern Africa; Southeast Asia; and Latin America. To examine the diversity of governance models and the variance in performance across these regions, we focus on four country case studies from each region. The cases represent both democratic and authoritarian governments, and vary in terms of governance performance—ranging from high to low—in economic, social, and political outputs. In this article, we evaluate the Latin American cases—Bolivia, Colombia, Cuba, and Uruguay—to test whether autocracies or democracies in the region are better at delivering on governance for their citizens. Ultimately, we argue that democracies in Latin America outperform autocracies on governance metrics. To assess how well countries in the Global South are delivering on governance outcomes, we defined four categories of governance indicators. The first includes socioeconomic indicators such as employment, poverty, income disparities, and access to services such as education, healthcare, and subsidies. An important aspect of this type of indicator is exclusion, meaning how access to services is distributed by gender, political group, social group, urban-rural location, and socioeconomic position. A second category describes another important aspect of governance: access to information. This includes variables such as transparency, academic freedom, arrests for free speech and political content, social media use by the public and elites, government internet filtering capacity and practice, government capacity to regulate online content, and government involvement in the dissemination of false information. A third category covers traditional political indicators including rule of law, separation of powers, checks and balances, and control of corruption. This also includes political equality measures like educational equality, health equality, and power distribution by gender, sexual orientation, social group, and socioeconomic position. The fourth category encompasses one of the more intangible aspects of governance—civil liberties, including access to justice, equality before the law, freedom of expression and association, freedom of domestic movement, freedom of foreign movement, freedom of religion, and property rights. In Latin America, we selected two more democratic governments that differ significantly in governance outcomes: Uruguay, which demonstrates high performance, and Colombia, which continues to face economic and social shortcomings and is confronted with political challenges that threaten social cohesion and democratic stability. We also selected two more autocratic governments: Bolivia, which exhibits relatively coherent economic and social performance (when compared to other authoritarian countries in the region), and Cuba, where governance crises are persistent and unresolved. In all four governance categories discussed in this article, both democracies project stronger performance than both autocracies. Importantly, many countries do not neatly fall into one regime type category. Rather, some of our cases (most notably Bolivia in the Latin American context) represent a hybrid model between democracy and autocracy. The 2025 elections in Bolivia are one example. The Movement for Socialism (MAS) candidate—whose party had held power in Bolivia for nearly twenty years—did not advance to the second round of the presidential elections, and the party lost almost all its seats in the legislature, but MAS made clear that it would accept the final election results. These four cases (Bolivia, Colombia, Cuba, and Uruguay) were selected for their individual characteristics as well as their applicability to the wider region. In addition to their different regime types and governance outcomes, we selected the cases to ensure variety. The cases span the region, with a Caribbean case (Cuba) and northern (Colombia), central (Bolivia), and southern (Uruguay) South American cases. They represent large and small countries, in both population and land mass. They include some of the wealthiest (Uruguay) and poorest (Bolivia) in the region. They represent countries that have been ravaged by civil conflict and weak institution-building processes, and those that have experienced a more peaceful history and built strong institutions. Furthermore, they are countries that are underrepresented in the literature.
Topic:
Governance, Reform, Democracy, Domestic Politics, Autocracy, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
Colombia, Uruguay, Cuba, Latin America, and Bolivia

2724. Climate Clarity: On the Future of Climate Action in the United States

Author:
Leonardo Martinez-Diaz, Noah Gordon, and Milo McBride
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
People in the United States who care about fighting climate change are shellshocked. After four years of insufficient, but nevertheless unprecedented, policy support for climate action, there has been a sudden, abrupt reversal. Under the headline of “Energy Dominance,” President Donald Trump’s administration has scrapped environmental regulations, taken a sledgehammer to the green industrial policy of its predecessor, and removed the United States from international climate diplomacy. Programs of every description addressing or even indirectly touching climate action have been cut, and congressionally appropriated funds for decarbonization and strengthening climate resilience have been cancelled, frozen, or delayed indefinitely. The gutting of IRA tax credits and other support for clean energy this July was a major blow to climate action in the United States, and the Trump administration has followed up by obstructing wind and solar projects, even some that were nearly ready to deliver crucial power to Americans. This dramatic U-turn is the product of electoral outcomes, but it is also the result of an important shift in the battle of ideas, one that is playing out in the United States and also in other countries. Opponents of climate action have pivoted from simply denying that human activity is changing the climate and toward what is best described as a “New Denialism”—a narrative based on convincing the public that climate solutions don’t work or are too expensive, that decarbonization is too difficult and unrealistic a goal, and that everyone should make peace with the fact that fossil fuels will be around forever, so the United States might as well produce more of them. Climate change will inflict some damage, but it’s a small price to pay for progress, New Denialists argue. New Denialism is more subtle and thus perhaps more dangerous than its predecessor. It thrives on the fact that the energy transition is complex and nuanced, and that the scientific consensus, though settled on the fundamentals, is uncertain about the magnitude, cost, and timeline of climate damages. The New Denialism exploits these features to undermine the public’s confidence in the entire decarbonization project, while largely ignoring adaptation (or, in some cases, sophomorically suggesting it will be easy). If these ideas take root, they may prevent the formation of coalitions for meaningful climate action in the future, even if a climate-friendly party eventually takes the White House and Congress. Building a fresh, durable consensus for climate action will require not just confronting the New Denialism but also setting forth a new approach that takes an objective, fact-based view of the promise and limitations of the global energy transition and of what the United States needs to do to adapt to climate impacts. But even more important is building a narrative that relates climate action to two other things that Americans are urgently demanding of their political leadership: an affordable way of life and better health for themselves and their loved ones. Many climate solutions can lower the cost of living and safeguard human health, and it is possible—in fact, imperative—to make life more affordable, longer, and healthier for the people of the United States while addressing climate change at the same time. We call our approach Climate Clarity, and it’s based on four foundational ideas that stem from our research and that of our peers. These ideas may be controversial in some quarters, but we are convinced they will lead to a more constructive, reality-aligned public debate about the future of climate policy and action at a key historical juncture in the United States: Clean energy technologies today are effective and cost-competitive relative to fossil fuel alternatives. That is why the global energy transition, led by China and Europe, is now well under way, and why U.S. policy shifts are unlikely to derail it. A wave of disruptive, clean energy innovations is getting close to maturity and will further accelerate the transition. Out of self-interest, the United States should be part of the energy transition rather than sitting on the sidelines and hitching its star to fossil fuels. This will allow Americans to benefit directly from clean energy markets that are growing much faster than fossil fuel markets, enable the global transition to move faster, and keep the goal alive of reaching net zero emissions. Negative emissions technology needs to advance urgently and is an area where the United States could lead. Americans need to prepare for the impacts of climate change by taking a hard, dispassionate look at climate risk and adopting a risk-management philosophy. That means prioritizing the protection of vulnerable groups, ensuring that Americans have the information they need to make climate-informed decisions, and facilitating the mobility of people across and within different regions of the country. Technological innovation alone won’t be enough. Building lasting support for climate-friendly policies that support those technologies will require forming a new political coalition. And that, in turn, will require linking climate solutions to Americans’ most important everyday concerns, namely affordability and health.
Topic:
Climate Change, Industrial Policy, Regulation, Domestic Politics, Innovation, Donald Trump, Sustainability, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2725. The Aragalaya Protest Movement and the Struggle for Political Change in Sri Lanka

Author:
David G. Timberman
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
From early 2022 to late 2024, Sri Lanka went through an intermittent, uncertain, but ultimately momentous change in its political leadership. In early 2022, in response to a severe economic crisis, massive protests forced from office then president Gotabaya Rajapaksa and other members of the powerful Rajapaksa political dynasty. He was succeeded by Ranil Wickremesinghe, another member of the discredited political elite, who held office for the next two years. In late 2024, new elections brought to power a leader and political party that had been long opposed to the country’s traditional political and economic elites. Sri Lanka’s political transition is notable both because it is a rare democratic success story in an era marked by democratic backsliding around the world and because it highlights the potency, though also some of the inadequacies, of political protest movements. The 2024 elections, won by Anura Kumara Dissanayake and the National People’s Power (NPP) coalition, represent a dramatic repudiation by Sri Lankan voters of the country’s deeply entrenched political establishment. While it was the electoral process in 2024 that ultimately resulted in the rejection of the government headed by Wickremesinghe, it was the Aragalaya (Sinhala for “struggle”) protest movement during the first half of 2022 that dealt the initial body blow to Sri Lanka’s political establishment by demanding the resignation of Gotabaya Rajapaksa and other members of the political elite and calling for fundamental changes to the country’s political system (what protesters called “system change”). In just four months—between March and July 2022—the Aragalaya movement succeeded in forcing from office first prime minister and former president Mahinda Rajapaksa (the president’s brother) and then president Gotabaya Rajapaksa himself.1 In the wake of these resignations, Ranil Wickremesinghe, a prominent member of Sri Lanka’s political elite, first was appointed by Gotabaya Rajapaksa as prime minister and then was selected by Parliament to succeed him as president.2 Wickremesinghe’s ascendancy to the presidency (technically called the “executive presidency”) was an adept political feat made possible by the political disarray created by Aragalaya as well as the close-knit nature of Sri Lanka’s political elite. As soon as Wickremesinghe came to power, he repressed the protests, arrested protesters, and refused to hold local elections that almost certainly would have weakened his political position. Wickremesinghe’s ascendancy to the presidency in July 2022 diminished the apparent significance of Aragalaya and dimmed hopes for system change. But the outcome of the 2024 elections now makes it clear that the protest movement, despite its brevity, had a lasting and significant impact. Drawing heavily on interviews and published perspectives across Sri Lankan society, this paper examines the protest movement and its impact on Sri Lankan politics.3 While it is principally intended to be of use to scholars, politicians, and activists focused on Sri Lanka, it also seeks to contribute to a wider understanding of protest movements that periodically erupt—and frequently falter—globally.4 It provides insights into the dynamics of protest and civil resistance movements, including: the interplay of protest movements and political parties, the efficacy of what are known as “leaderless” or “horizontal” protest movements, the fickle role of the middle class in protest politics, and the vexing issue of whether and when extra-constitutional political action is justified in response to harmful governance and widespread demands for political change. The paper begins with a brief description of the political and economic conditions that catalyzed Aragalaya. It then describes the key periods during the movement’s short but intense life and how Sri Lanka’s political parties and leaders reacted to the political upheaval. This includes a focus on how Ranil Wickremesinghe was able to become president by capitalizing on the political vacuum created by the ouster of the Rajapaksas and how he sought to repress protests and elections that might pose challenges to his leadership and policies. It then turns to the 2024 presidential and parliamentary elections and briefly shows how their outcomes represented a rejection of the Wickremesinghe government and the political establishment more generally. It concludes with an assessment of Aragalaya that examines seven features of the movement that made it unprecedented in Sri Lanka and relates them to the experiences of other protest movements.
Topic:
Reform, Democracy, Domestic Politics, Protests, Political Movements, and Political Transition
Political Geography:
South Asia and Sri Lanka

2726. U.S. Democratic Backsliding in Comparative Perspective

Author:
McKenzie Carrier and Thomas Carothers
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The global democratic recession of the past twenty years has been marked by numerous cases of elected leaders incrementally dismantling democracy through a steady centralization of power and undercutting of checks and balances—what political scientists label as executive aggrandizement. Under the second Donald Trump presidency, the United States is showing clear signs of following such a path, leading many commenters to draw arresting but often relatively glancing comparisons with other prominent recent cases of democratic erosion, like Hungary, India, Poland, and Türkiye. This paper examines U.S. political developments since the return of Trump to power in an in-depth, comparative light, seeking to illuminate the similarities and differences between the unfolding U.S. context and the experience of other troubled democracies. The paper establishes that the Trump administration’s overall political project conforms to the general model of executive aggrandizement, and is best understood as taking place at three interrelated levels: Establishing the president as supreme within the executive branch: Trump’s team seeks an extreme form of presidential concentration of power within the executive branch. It has weakened accountability institutions and regulations, tightened presidential control over independent agencies and the executive bureaucracy, decreased the political independence of the civil service, and purged perceived opponents from the branch. Making the executive branch dominant over other parts of government: The administration is forcefully seeking dominance over the judiciary, Congress, and states. It has defied court orders, criticized judicial rulings, and constrained individual judges. It has circumvented congressional policies and undermined its powers. And it has attacked and constrained state governments that do not align with administration policies. Weakening societal constraints on executive power: Trump has stymied civil society opposition by attacking independent media, punishing lawyers and law firms perceived to be oppositional, and constraining civic and educational organizations. His team has undermined vertical checks on the executive by weakening voting rights and the independence of election administration. Broadly, Trump is pursuing widespread retribution against perceived opponents and critics. The paper then compares the path of U.S. politics under Trump to seven other recent or ongoing cases of democratic backsliding—Brazil, Ecuador, El Salvador, Hungary, India, Poland, and Türkiye—highlighting distinctive features along three comparative dimensions: Focus: The Trump team’s agenda has several priorities that set it apart from other backsliding cases. These include its unique emphasis on intra-executive dominance, delegitimization rather than institutionalized attacks on horizontal checks, and coercive use of the robust federal funding ecosystem to pressure U.S. civil society. Rapidity: The administration has carried out its political program with striking speed. Compared to other backsliding cases, it has sought to centralize power with greater momentum and rapidity. And while other leaders often eroded democratic checks piece by piece, Trump’s team is working to weaken such checks across multiple levels all at once. Severity: The degree of democratic erosion in the United States is not yet as severe as that of most of its backsliding peers. The country has not yet seen the deep-rooted institutional changes that have characterized many of the comparative cases. And repressive measures like coercive force or criminalization have been limited by U.S. democratic norms and institutions. While some comfort can be taken from the fact that the relatively deeply rooted U.S. democratic norms and institutions compared to those in the other cases have resulted in a less institutionalized process of backsliding thus far, the distinctive speed and aggressiveness of Trump’s aggrandizement agenda is cause for serious concern. Numerous avenues and sources of resistance to democratic erosion continue to exist, but U.S. democracy is being put to the test as never before in the country’s modern history.
Topic:
Government, Domestic Politics, Donald Trump, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
Turkey, India, Poland, Brazil, Hungary, North America, Ecuador, El Salvador, and United States of America

2727. Securing America’s Critical Minerals Supply

Author:
Allan Bentley and Jonas Goldman
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration has prioritized building a secure critical minerals supply chain to create economic prosperity and geopolitical leverage. This strategy centers on streamlined permitting, legislative support via the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), and protective tariffs, including a planned 50 percent tariff on copper announced for summer 2025. However, a purely domestic approach will face severe constraints. First, the United States does not have the necessary critical minerals reserves in all cases. This creates fundamental limits to supply that cannot be resolved through domestic policy measures alone. While international agreements, such as the minerals deal with Ukraine, offer potential solutions, mining development requires long lead times, which makes these efforts inherently long-term projects. In addition, there is a tension between domestic mining goals and broader manufacturing competitiveness. Our analysis shows that even under the most optimistic scenarios, by 2035 U.S. domestic production would be able to meet projected demand only for zinc and molybdenum. Even a substantial domestic minerals boom would leave the country requiring substantial imports of copper, graphite, lithium, silver, nickel, and manganese to support industrial expansion and grid modernization. But greater minerals extraction is only half the picture, as a corresponding scaleup of U.S. smelting capacity would also be required. Current policy measures under the OBBBA provide mixed support. While the legislation allocates $2 billion for National Defense Stockpile purchases, $5 billion for the Industrial Base Fund, and $500 million for defense credit programs, it simultaneously phases out the Inflation Reduction Act’s permanent 10 percent production tax credit in 2034. These changes fail to address the structural weaknesses in U.S. mining competitiveness. This analysis identifies two critical pathways. First, a comprehensive domestic industrial strategy must address the entire mining ecosystem—from streamlined permitting and modern equipment to efficient logistics networks and processing economies of scale. Second, a coordinated friendshoring approach must leverage partnerships with allies and developing economies to diversify supply chains away from Chinese dominance. The United States must support value-added processing in these jurisdictions, so that all countries can benefit from a global mining diversification push. One specific policy mechanism is likely to prove crucial. Guaranteed price contracts with miners and processors—modeled on the recent MP Materials rare earths arrangement—could provide investment certainty through shared upside mechanisms rather than blanket import restrictions. Success requires strategically coordinated domestic and international efforts. Tariffs alone will fail. Innovation support, technology standards, and infrastructure development must be integrated in a comprehensive industrial strategy. A balanced approach that strengthens domestic capabilities while securing reliable international partnerships offers the best path toward critical minerals security that enables rather than constrains American manufacturing competitiveness.
Topic:
Development, Natural Resources, Mining, Supply Chains, Offshoring, Critical Minerals, and Onshoring
Political Geography:
North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

2728. The European Radical Right in the Age of Trump 2.0

Author:
Rosa Balfour, Stefan Lehne, and Elena Ventura
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January 2025 seemed to herald a revolutionary new era that would reshape not only the United States but also European politics and culture.1 The breathtaking speed and depth with which the second Trump presidency has changed U.S. domestic and foreign policy is reminiscent of former Chinese leader Mao Zedong’s Cultural Revolution and has caused frantic adaptation across the globe.2 U.S. action in geopolitical theaters that are central to Europe’s security and Washington’s triggering of a global trade war are immensely consequential for Europe. U.S. policy is revealing the ideological detail of the American radical right as it undergoes some solidification and builds an international network in which Europe plays a key role. Europe is high on the agenda of the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement. Yet, however emboldened the European radical right may feel, and despite growing transatlantic linkages, events of the past year suggest that the continent’s own dynamics and challenges remain the main drivers that shape Europe’s political and policy choices. The European radical right has had some electoral successes but continues to struggle to turn that achievement into action, as it is divided in the European Union (EU) institutions and inconsistent on policy. The primary factor in the radical right’s success is the failure of mainstream politics to find effective responses to political challenges. In April 2024, Carnegie Europe published a report on the foreign policies of the fourteen most significant European radical-right parties and their impact on the EU.3 Now, one year into the EU’s 2024–2029 institutional term, this paper asks: With Trump in the White House, can the radical right—in the words of Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán—“conquer” Europe?4 In fact, the Trump effect on the radical right is more nuanced than is usually assumed. Signals of both empowerment and distance are visible. While the radical right’s electorate is more drawn to Trump in his second term than in his first, most Europeans continue to be skeptical of him, making radical-right parties cautious in their embrace of Trumpism. After all, the Trump administration’s outright anti-EU policies affect radical-right electorates, too. The radical right is as consequential as centrist parties, leaders, and institutions allow it to be. Fears that the radical right with Trump’s support will destroy the EU seem overblown in the short term. However, the right could well be capable of blocking and delaying reforms that are necessary to confront the EU’s current and future challenges. Rather than conquering Europe, the radical right seems set on preventing the EU from becoming what it needs to become.
Topic:
European Union, Donald Trump, Political Parties, Radical Right, Right-Wing Politics, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and United States of America

2729. Legacy or Liability? Auditing U.S. Alliances to Compete with China

Author:
Christopher S. Chivvis, Kristin Zhu, Beatrix Geaghan-Breiner, Maeve Sockwell, Lauren Morganbesser, and Senkai Hsia
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Allies are essential to U.S. strategic competition with China but carry costs and risks that require continuous, realistic management. Polarization in Washington has unfortunately impeded the correct approach: critics on the right are too narrowly focused on military power while advocates on the left underplay the real costs and risks involved in U.S. defense commitments. Across the political spectrum, experts are now calling on allies to shoulder more of the burden for security in the Indo-Pacific. This is positive, but plans to deepen U.S. alliances also need to weigh allied political will and the danger of being drawn into conflicts that do not serve vital U.S. interests. This report inventories these costs and benefits for seven key alliances across eight core areas of U.S.-China strategic competition. We conclude that: Japan can further U.S. aims with China across all eight categories, especially as its defense spending increases. It is willing to cooperate in several key areas and poses low risk of entanglement. Australia can make contributions at a more modest level. Political will to cooperate with the United States has increased but is not steady. Risk of entanglement is low. South Korea is reluctant to use its economic and military power to counter China but poses a substantial military burden and risk on the United States. Chip manufacturing and other nonmilitary capabilities help strengthen the case for the alliance. Key European allies—France, Germany, and the UK—will have a limited military role in the Indo-Pacific, but can support important technological, diplomatic, and political objectives of U.S. China strategy. The Philippines has advantageous military geography—but lacks other benefits and poses an entanglement risk in the South China Sea. We stress that if Washington consistently pursues a statecraft that undermines allied trust in the United States, allied leaders will not support U.S. global objectives, weakening America’s hand in competition with China. Some recent U.S. policies, such as the Trump administration’s broad tariffs, appear to have eroded trust. The United States does not need a revolution in its alliances, which remain a source of strength for America at a time when U.S. power is under strain globally. But Washington does need to move with greater caution when deepening them. Ensuring alliances serve the needs of American citizens at a time when the world is in flux will require realism, periodic reassessment, and continuous adaptation.
Topic:
Alliance, Strategic Competition, Polarization, Statecraft, and Great Powers
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Europe, Asia, South Korea, Philippines, Australia, North America, and United States of America

2730. Regime Change and Minority Risks: Syrian Alawites After Assad

Author:
Adam Fefer
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Syria’s prospects for improved security and solidarity after the fall of former president Bashar al-Assad remain uncertain, though there are grounds for optimism, including histories of religious coexistence and the multifaceted nature of Syrian identities. The long-term success of Syria’s regime change will depend on the transitional government’s ability and willingness to forge a shared national identity and to protect the rights of minorities, including those regarded as Assad loyalists. However, its unclear commitment to these goals generates considerable uncertainty for Alawites and other vulnerable groups. The security and political inclusion of Alawites will be critical for fostering stable, multiethnic governance in the Levant. To this end, this paper outlines risks facing Syrian Alawites. Taking a comparative and historical approach, it emphasizes the compounded nature of these risks due to years of war and decades of minority rule. It groups the risks under two themes: (1) insecurity, driven not only by fragile and predatory security forces but also by Alawites’ historical ties to the Assad regime and their demographic vulnerabilities, and (2) polarization, fueled by mass grievances and the paucity of strong, moderate organizations, among other factors. Syria’s civil war both deepened insecurity and polarized much of society along sectarian lines. Meanwhile, Alawites are perceived as the enforcers of an extremely repressive regime, making them the target of reprisals.
Topic:
Regime Change, Minorities, Syrian War, Pluralism, and Alawites
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

2731. Leveraging the competencies of people and non-system entities during disaster and rescue operations

Author:
Robert Piec, Antoni Morawski, and Mateusz Banaś
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
A disaster is an event that has a negative impact on people and the environment on such a scale that its effects cannot be controlled by the resources of the local community. Managing rescue operations during disasters and major accidents is a major challenge due to their complexity. A flexible and effective rescue system is essential to minimise the effects of a disaster. Based on considerations regarding the complexity of rescue systems, analyses of scientific articles, legal acts, documents of authorities responsible for crisis management and press reports, the research problem can be formulated as follows: whether or how the use of non-system competences during rescue operations will affect the effectiveness of the crisis management process when rescuing people or the environment. The Key Performance Indicators method was used to evaluate rescue operations. The analysis shows that non-systemic competences had a significant impact on improving the effectiveness of rescue operations, particularly in terms of response time and coordination. The greater the support from international experts, non-governmental organisations and technology, the better the results in terms of flexibility, safety and availability of resources.
Topic:
Security, Disaster Relief, Search and Rescue, and Resource Operations
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2732. Natural Resources, Global Power Relations, and Economic Development: Insights from Mongolia

Author:
Tomasz Legiędź
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
This article explores the resource curse phenomenon in the Global South, using Mongolia as an example. Mainstream economists and international financial institutions typically attribute the failure to convert resource wealth into prosperity to domestic institutional deficiencies, such as corruption and a weak rule of law. This study challenges this dominant institutional approach by shifting the analytical focus from local pathologies to the transnational context. Drawing on Critical Political Economy, specifically the Murdoch School, it argues that the regulatory frameworks governing mining, often referred to as ‘modes of governance’, are frequently products of global relations of power. These frameworks are designed to align with the accumulation strategies of foreign investors rather than national development goals. The article begins by reviewing the literature on the relationship between natural resource abundance and economic growth. Second, it interrogates the prevailing governance models by highlighting the structural asymmetries and power dynamics that shape extractive industries. Finally, the empirical analysis of Mongolia demonstrates how external pressure, debt dependency, and the imposition of neoliberal norms constrain state sovereignty. Ultimately, the paper concludes that ‘good governance’ reforms can perpetuate an ‘institutional trap,’ facilitating the extraction of surplus by foreign actors while limiting the developmental capacity of resource-rich nations.
Topic:
Political Economy, Institutions, Mining, Economic Development, and Industry
Political Geography:
Mongolia and Asia

2733. The Russian Orthodox Church as an Instrument of Kremlin Influence and a Factor of Destabilisation in Ukraine

Author:
Valentyna Hodlevska
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
This article investigates the role of the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) and its Ukrainian branch—the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate (UOC-MP)—as instruments of Russian political influence and destabilization in Ukraine. The study focuses on the UOC-MP’s ideological alignment with the Kremlin and its impact on Ukrainian national security, especially in the context of Russia’s ongoing aggression. Employing a qualitative analysis of official church statements, government documents, legislative acts, and media reports , the research traces the evolving relationship between the UOC-MP and the ROC, including the effects of the 2018 Tomos of Autocephaly and the aftermath of the 2022 full-scale invasion. The findings demonstrate that despite a formal declaration of separation from the ROC, the UOC-MP continued to maintain institutional and ideological ties with Moscow, leading to increased societal distrust and state intervention. The culmination of this process was the 2024 ban on the ROC and its affiliates in Ukraine, which signaled a decisive move toward religious sovereignty and the consolidation of an independent Ukrainian Orthodoxy.
Topic:
Sovereignty, Ideology, Destabilization, Russia-Ukraine War, Russian Orthodox Church, Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate, and Orthodox Church of Ukraine
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, and Ukraine

2734. Investment in the Heart of Europe: What Shapes FDI in the Visegrad Countries?

Author:
Andrzej Geise, Małgorzata Jaworek, and Magdalena Kuczmarska
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
This study investigates the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Visegrad Group (V4) countries, focusing on the changing relevance of cost-, market-, and institutional-related factors. The analysis employs a panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (P-ARDL) model and panel Granger causality tests to examine both the long-run and short-run relationships between FDI and a set of macroeconomic, and institutionalrelated variables. The dataset covers the V4 countries over a time span between 1996 and 2023 and captures both permanent and transitory changes in determinants of FDI. The results show that in the long-run, average wage levels and government effectiveness are significant structural determinants, highlighting the importance of institutional quality and labour costs in FDI location decisions. In the short term, FDI inwards are mainly influenced by GDP growth, R&D expenditure, trade openness, and inflation dynamics. The results indicating the significance of factors determining FDI in the Visegrad Group countries may be of particular importance for policymakers seeking to enhance investment attractiveness in a globally unstable economic environment.
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Direct Investment, and Visegrad Group
Political Geography:
Europe

2735. Corruption in the Republic of Poland and Combating Iit in 2018–2022. Introduction

Author:
Szczepan Stempiński and Jarosław Kopyto
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
The phenomenon of corruption – accompanying dynamic economic development – is one of the most socially acute threats. It consists of both normative, organizational and also functional factors. Market demand for certain goods and services also plays an important role in the dynamics of this phenomenon. In this article, the authors used both a qualitative method (analyzing normative and regulatory acts) and a quantitative method (data contained in CBA source materials in 2018-2022). The working hypothesis established assumes that the area most vulnerable to the phenomenon of corruption in the RP is public administration, especially local government administration. Its verification was possible thanks to the identification of the main areas of corruption and the methods established to combat it, particularly in the context of the implementation of the Government Anti-Corruption Program for 2018-2020. In addition, data from Transparency International, the CBA, the Police, the Internal Security Agency and other services were also used. The article, which is the authors’ critical approach to the phenomenon of corruption, also touches on ethical aspects whose observance should be an established corporate standard.
Topic:
Corruption, Economic Development, and Public Administration
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

2736. Fighting corruption in the Border Guard. Poland’s experience in the context of the EU and Schengen Agreement accession

Author:
Agnieszka Lipska-Sondecka, Monika Lipiec-Karwowska, and Wojciech Pempko
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
This paper examines Poland’s approach to combating corruption within the Border Guard before and during its accession to the European Union and Schengen Area. The study is motivated by the critical role of anti-corruption measures in meeting EU membership requirements, especially regarding the uniformed services. The main objective is to analyze the process and outcomes of anti-corruption reforms in the Polish Border Guard as both a direct result of accession negotiations and a necessary step for joining Schengen in 2007. The central research question addresses how legal and institutional changes influenced the effectiveness of anti-corruption efforts in this period. The study employs analysis of EU and national legislation, review of Border Guard internal reports and strategies, and literature review as its primary methods. The findings indicate that, due to limited EU oversight, candidate countries – including Poland – developed their own frameworks for tackling corruption, leading to substantial progress within the Border Guard during the accession process.
Topic:
Corruption, European Union, Borders, and Schengen Agreement
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

2737. A recipe for longevity? Multi-tenure of provincial marshals as an example of a sustainable actor in a changing party system

Author:
Dawid Pieniężny
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
The Polish party system has undergone many significant transformations in the 21st century. Despite this fact, at the highest level of local government it is possible to observe marshals of voivodships, who should be regarded as a durable actor, holding their position for many years. The aim of this text is to verify the assumption that the multicadency of provincial marshals depended on the ability to create a strong political base, the durability of local power conditions, and the adaptability of the marshals themselves – especially in the changing environment of the party system. The conclusions drawn from these considerations indicate that ‘eternal marshals’ are not only an example of a stable political entity in the changing conditions of the party system, but above all an effective ‘regional manager’ distinguished by a range of adaptive, negotiating and managerial skills, with strong ties to the local community and enjoying significant social and political support.
Topic:
Politics, Political Parties, and Local Government
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

2738. Feminist Foreign Policy in Selected European Countries. Lessons and Best Practices for Ukraine

Author:
Oksana Voytyuk and Karolina Ferreira Fernandes
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
Feminist foreign policy (FFP) is a state policy whose main goal is to promote gender equality, women’s rights and interests, marginalized social groups and eliminate colonial, racist, patriarchal male-dominated structures. The article presents the main principles of the feminist foreign policy (FFP) of Sweden, France, Spain, and Germany, and discusses Ukraine’s actions in this regard. Special attention is given to Ukraine’s future FFP strategy in the context of the ongoing war. The methods employed in this study include analysis of reports and interviews and speeches available online, document analysis, comparison, synthesis, and a systemic approach to FFP, allowing for a comprehensive assessment of current actions and the prospects for the development of Ukraine’s feminist foreign policy considering the evolving wartime reality
Topic:
Foreign Policy, War, Women, and Feminism
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, France, Germany, Spain, and Sweden

2739. Lithuania through the eyes of Ukrainian war refugees

Author:
Giedrė Barkauskaitė
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
This article aims to discuss the specificities of Lithuania as reflected in the narratives of war refugees from Ukraine. The respondents for this research are women aged 30-47 from various Ukrainian cities. These Ukrainian women have to deal with more than just issues of accommodation and employment, or domestic routine. When settling in a new place, the differences and specificities of the host country, or, by contrast, its similarities to one’s country of origin become apparent. The aim of this research was to collect observations by Ukrainian refugees that identify what is specific to Lithuania.
Topic:
Women, Refugees, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Lithuania

2740. Green Capitalism in the Americas: False Solutions, Real Threats

Author:
Sabrina Fernandes and Breno Bringel
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
In this special issue of the NACLA Report, we critically examine the rise of green capitalism in the region in the lead-up to COP30 in Belém, Brazil in November.
Topic:
Climate Change, Green Transition, Conference of the Parties (COP), and Green Capitalism
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

2741. Indigenous Communities in Putumayo Resist Canadian Oil

Author:
Luis Aparicio Díaz and Joshua Collins
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
The Nasa’s fight against Gran Tierra Energy reveals the links between extraction and armed conflict, and the limitations of the government’s reforms.
Topic:
Government, Reform, Indigenous, Armed Conflict, and Extractive Industries
Political Geography:
Canada, Colombia, South America, and North America

2742. Colombia Challenges Israeli Impunity from Above and Below

Author:
Abigail Kret and Gabe Levine-Drizin
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
As President Petro ramps up efforts to halt coal exports to Israel, activists push for decisive action and chart a new path for Global South solidarity.
Topic:
Solidarity, Global South, Impunity, Exports, and Activism
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Colombia, Palestine, and South America

2743. With Trump, Polarization Among Venezuelans Reaches New Heights

Author:
Steve Ellner
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Washington’s Venezuela policy has intensified divisions within the opposition, revealing class divides and fears over the fallout from a potential U.S. invasion.
Topic:
Class, Donald Trump, Polarization, Opposition, and Nicolas Maduro
Political Geography:
South America, Venezuela, and United States of America

2744. Colombia’s Peace Court Delivers Historic Sentence Against Military Officers

Author:
Joshua Collins
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
The ruling by the transitional justice tribunal, though criticized by some victims, brings hope that the country may soon turn the page.
Topic:
Transitional Justice, Accountability, Peace, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

2745. The Militarization of Commercial Activity in Mexico

Author:
Irene Wang
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
After building the Tren Maya, Mexico’s military has expanded its commercial reach in the Yucatán, with no regard for transparency or accountability.
Topic:
Accountability, Transparency, Militarization, and Commercialization
Political Geography:
Latin America and Mexico

2746. Panama’s President Cracks Down on Unions

Author:
Corey Kane
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Amidst protests, President José Raúl Mulino holds firm to social security reform while suspending habeas corpus and attacking unions and striking workers.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Reform, Unions, and Social Security
Political Geography:
Latin America and Panama

2747. Haiti’s Political Impasse

Author:
Greg Beckett
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Haiti’s current form of “checkpoint governance” represents a structural transformation in how politics works in the country.
Topic:
Security, Politics, and Governance
Political Geography:
Latin America, Caribbean, and Haiti

2748. As Detention Surges Under Trump, Organizers Build a Lasting Movement

Author:
Conner Martinez
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
As the president pumps $45 billion into ICE over the next three years, activists and communities must balance rapid response with longer-term resistance.
Topic:
Donald Trump, Opposition, Activism, Organizing, and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE)
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2749. Boomerangs of Empire: Latin America as Colonial Laboratory

Author:
Romina Green Rioja and Sergio Beltrán-García
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
This special issue of the NACLA Report traces the returning and disseminating violence that is shaping the Americas today, from border militarization to algorithmic surveillance and the criminalization of dissent.
Topic:
Surveillance, Borders, Violence, Militarization, and Criminalization
Political Geography:
Latin America

2750. Chile at a Crossroads: Human Rights and the Environment Under Kast

Author:
Carole Concha Bell
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Chile’s new far-right president seeks to recycle the military regime's political project, risking hard earned advances in human, Indigenous, and environmental rights.
Topic:
Environment, Human Rights, Domestic Politics, Far Right, and José Antonio Kast
Political Geography:
South America and Chile