Publication Year: within 1 Year and within 25 Years

2651. Los problemas surgidos tras el grave conflicto Israelí-Palestino en Gaza a raíz de los ataques de Hamás del 7 de octubre de 2023

Author:: Romualdo Bermejo and Natalia Ordoñez
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: Los ataques del 7 de octubre de 2023 por parte de Hamás contra Israel, y las atrocidades cometidas por los milicianos y terroristas de esta organización, pasarán a la historia como un ejemplo de barbarie, por mucho que no todos los Estados los hayan condenado, e incluso tácitamente aprobado. Si para Israel esto ha sido un segundo "Holocausto", para otros Estados y actores se ha ejercido un derecho de "resistencia". Estos ataques han suscitado una dura reacción de Israel y de sus fuerzas armadas sobre la Franja de Gaza, que es criticada por no respetar el Derecho internacional humanitario, dejando de lado el derecho de legítima defensa. En este contexto, ha vuelto la idea de la creación de un Estado palestino, ahora con más ímpetu,
Topic:: Human Rights, Hamas, International Humanitarian Law (IHL), October 7, 2023 Gaza War, and Two-State Solution
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

2652. Navigating New Waters: Russian Military Aggression on Ukraine and Effects on the Visegrad Group

Author:: Jaroslav Ušiak
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: In this article, the author examines the dynamic evolution of the Visegrad Group (V4) countries in response to Russia's war on Ukraine. Although V4 cooperation is deeply rooted in shared historical experiences, recent geopolitical challenges have revealed significant differences among member countries. Poland and the Czech Republic are strongly supportive of Ukraine and oriented towards NATO, while Hungary and Slovakia are more ambivalent, creating internal tensions. The author examines the factors that shape national identities and their influence on these divergent responses, highlighting that these factors have implications for the future of the V4 countries. The researcher used mixed methods to analyse official documents, political speeches and opinion poll data from the V4 countries, to examine the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on V4 unity and solidarity, and to consider the implications for the future of the V4 countries. The findings point to a fragile unity and growing concerns about the V4's ability to respond coherently to external threats.
Topic:: Solidarity, Identity, Visegrad Group, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

2653. The Future of Liberal World Order from a Central and Eastern European Perspective

Author:: Peter Rada and Laura Nyilas
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: It is now generally accepted that the global order is shifting, but the literature is divided on how. Consequently, it is not surprising that there is a lack of strong scholarship on the characteristics of the order from a Central and Eastern European (CEE) perspective. Therefore, this article aims to explore the future of the Liberal World Order (LWO) from this perspective through the lens of mainstream theories. The article looks at the geopolitical dynamics of the region and the evolving strategic perceptions of the LWO. It examines how CEE, traditionally seen as the frontier of the LWO (EU and NATO), is navigating the complexities of the current global political landscape in the light of the changing order. The second part of the article specifically analyses the security perceptions of CEE governments. The article seeks to contribute to the understanding of the future trajectory of the LWO, the potential implications for global peace and security, and the interplay of realism and liberalism in shaping our understanding of this trajectory from the CEE perspective.
Topic:: International Relations, Geopolitics, Liberalism, and International Order
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe

2654. State of Democracy in Central Europe after the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Author:: Lucia Husenicova
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: The central question of this article is why Russian military aggression in Ukraine has failed to strengthen support for democracy and cooperation with partners in some Central European countries. In addition, the article examines the link between military conflict in the immediate neighbourhood and the crisis of democracy. Based on a review of the extensive literature on the crisis of democracy, the article integrates findings from several opinion polls conducted in Central European countries. Looking primarily at the Visegrad countries, clear patterns emerge in responses and attitudes towards Russia. We can see the influence of the political discourse in these countries, the narratives used by political elites and, more recently, war fatigue and economic consequences. The article argues that a military conflict in the vicinity of democratic countries exacerbates the crisis of democracy. The information warfare that is part of this conflict and the susceptibility of the political elite to the dissemination of enemy propaganda undermines trust in democratic institutions and democracy.
Topic:: Democracy, Regional Politics, Russia-Ukraine War, and Aggression
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Central Europe

2655. Illiberal Populism as a Polarizing Factor of Regional Cooperation in Central Europe

Author:: Ladislav Cabada
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: Central European identity and regionality are very traditional and deeply rooted discourses. Over the past 35 years, a number of regional cooperation formats have emerged, among which the Visegrad Group has acquired a special position. This weakly institutionalised and thematically selective regional organisation has nevertheless established itself in the last 15 years as one of the visible actors of socalled populist regionalism. The (partial) transformation of the V4 towards populist foreign policy, national conservatism and Euroscepticism is the subject of our analysis. Using the concepts of populist regionalism and illiberal populism, it focuses on the formation of a monolithic discourse of the V4 as a group opposed to the international liberal order and the "Brussels agenda" in terms of values and public policies. We also examine the negative implications of this populist appropriation of the V4 for the region's position within the EU.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Populism, Polarization, Russia-Ukraine War, and Illiberalism
Political Geography:: Europe and Central Europe

2656. «We are not pro-Russian, but…». Comparing Communication of Czech ANO Movement and Slovak SMER-SD Regarding the Russian Aggression Against Ukraine.

Author:: Ondřej Filipec and Petra Měšťánková
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 represented a significant change in the geopolitical situation in Central and Eastern Europe, which was almost immediately reflected in the communication of political parties and their leaders. The main aim of this article is to analyse the communication of two populist parties: the Czech ANO movement of billionaire Andrej Babiš and the Slovak SMER-SD, mainly associated with its leader Robert Fico. Although both parties occupy important positions within the party systems of their respective countries and both are considered populist, they use different communication strategies and levels of pro-Russian orientation. The different communication strategies are analysed in the context of the electorate, inter-party relations, the coalition/opposition dichotomy and the personal influence of their leaders.
Topic:: War, Communications, Populism, Political Parties, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, Slovakia, and Czechia

2657. Wedged between East and West – The chances of an interest-based Hungarian foreign policy and the war in Ukraine

Author:: Andrea Schmidt
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: Hungarian foreign policy has been in the international spotlight, raising doubts about its direction. The purpose of this article is to highlight the contradictions between an interest-based and a value-based foreign policy. A theoretical introduction is followed by a brief analysis of the elements of a pragmatic foreign policy. At the same time, the second part of the paper presents a short case study from the Western Balkans. The Hungarian position on two countries, Kosovo and Serbia, will be analysed, not forgetting that these two countries are examples of the changes that have taken place in the relations between Hungary and Serbia. Despite earlier nationalist tensions, Serbia has become Hungary's almost sole ally in the region, putting the minority issue in the background and adopting a pragmatic approach. In this essay, we will also try to identify the considerations that guided Hungarian diplomacy in its position towards the West. Finally, we will discuss the extent to which the original goal of "occupying Brussels" was realistic and the consequences of Hungary's pragmatic foreign policy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Conflict, Pragmatism, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe, Hungary, and Western Balkans

2658. Maverick or Front-runner? Army Modernization in Hungary in the Light of the Other Visegrad Countries

Author:: Sandor Gallai and Daniel Gyuriss
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: This article compares Hungary's defence modernisation policy with that of the other Visegrad countries and finds that Poland has invested the most in developing its military capabilities and, together with the Czech Republic, has benefited considerably from rising international demand stimulated by the war. Both combined the purchase of modern equipment with the award of government contracts to local suppliers. Slovakia followed the same pattern, but without significant export capacity. Hungary, on the other hand, was unable to prevent the collapse of its former defence industry. As a result, its current development programme uniquely integrates the goals of army modernisation with the plan for rebuilding the sector, which relies heavily on the participation of large European companies, whose role is less important in the other countries. Two other distinctive features of the Hungarian modernisation policy are its embeddedness in broader economic and regional policies, and the creation of six distinct territorial clusters where the reorganisation of the sector is taking place.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Modernization, Visegrad Group, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe, Hungary, and Czech Republic

2659. Socio-economic consequences for Central Europe related to the mass migration of Ukrainian citizens after Russia’s full-scale invasion

Author:: Łukasz Jureńczyk and Svitlana Soroka
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: The Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused displacement on a scale not seen since the Second World War. More than 6.5 million refugees from Ukraine have been registered worldwide (as of 16 May 2024), and more than 4.2 million Ukrainians have received temporary protection in the EU. Most of them found shelter in Poland and Germany. These countries have received an influx of migrants that corresponds to the logic of their demographic development. Ukrainians are almost an ideal demographic resource for Central Europe. In August 2023, only one person in three wanted to return to Ukraine. If the Ukrainian refugees are properly adapted, they will provide additional development impulses to the countries where they reside.
Topic:: Migration, Refugees, Labor Market, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Central Europe

2660. The End of a Partnership and Cooperation. How Sino-Russian partnership ruined perception of China in Central Europe

Author:: Šárka Waisová
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: Since the first decade of the 21st century, pro-China attitudes have gradually become the political mainstream in Central Europe. Today, however, the relationship between Central European countries and Beijing is different. While Beijing remains an important partner for Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland have turned away from cooperation with China, and Slovakia's enthusiasm for China has cooled somewhat. This article examines why the Czech Republic and Poland, but not Slovakia and Hungary, have stopped building and maintaining their relations with China. It uses contrafactual analysis to find an answer. The article concludes that what caused the change and ruined the relations between Czechia and Poland on the one hand and China on the other hand was China's building of relations with Russia. In contrast, Hungary and Fico's Slovakia, which have repeatedly refused to recognise the Russian invasion of Ukraine and have maintained relations with Moscow, continue to have good relations with China
Topic:: International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Partnerships
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Central Europe, and Slovakia

2661. Securitization of Cooperation: The Three Seas Initiative in the shadow of the Russian-Ukrainian war

Author:: Łukasz Lewkowicz
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: The Three Seas Initiative (3SI) is a relatively new format of regional cooperation in Central Europe. The main objective of 3SI activities is the development of energy, transport and digital infrastructure in the region. Following the outbreak of the full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war in February 2014, the security dimension of 3SI activities has become more important. The last 3SI Summit was held in Vilnius in April 2024. The aim of this article is primarily to analyse the military dimension of the Three Seas Initiative's activities after the outbreak of war in Ukraine in 2022. The text presents the military potential of the 3SI countries and the diversified approach of the member states to the Russian-Ukrainian war. It also analyses the Lithuanian 3SI perspective, the decisions of the Vilnius Summit and the prospects for 3SI military cooperation. Due to the relatively new nature of the research topic, the analysis focuses primarily on recently published specialist texts.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Securitization, Russia-Ukraine War, and Three Seas Initiative (3SI)
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Central Europe

2662. Evolution of Baltic Security: Analysis of Threats and Strategic Responses

Author:: Ricardo Rodríguez Cobos
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: This article explores the evolution of security in the Baltic region, focusing first on Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, and analysing the key challenges posed by the Russian Federation since the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the subsequent security measures taken by NATO through the Enhanced Forward Presence (eFP) mission. It details the strategic responses of the Baltic states, highlighting their military modernisation, defence cooperation with NATO and growing reliance on multinational exercises. The article also examines the role of Poland as a key player in NATO's eastern flank defence and the integration of Finland and Sweden into NATO, emphasising their contribution to strengthening the Baltic and Arctic security architecture. The analysis concludes with an examination of the multiple threats that characterise the region's security environment, underlining the importance of coherent multinational defence strategies.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Deterrence, and Threat Assessment
Political Geography:: Europe and Baltic States

2663. The European energy crisis: Shock therapy for the EU’s clean energy transition

Author:: Simon Dekeyrel
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: In 2022, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and weaponisation of Europe's gas supplies sparked an unprecedented energy crisis in the EU. This was made worse because the French nuclear fleet was partially shut down, and the summer droughts in the EU made it difficult to generate electricity from water. This Policy Brief analyses how effectively the EU and its member states have aligned their actions in addressing the energy crisis with the strategic goals of the European Green Deal. It also reflects on the outlook and main challenges for the EU’s clean energy transition and offers recommendations for the way forward.
Topic:: European Union, Gas, Green Deal, Energy Crisis, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe

2664. Navigating the New Pact on Migration and Asylum in the shadow of Non-Europe

Author:: Alberto-Horst Neidhardt
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: In December 2023, the European Parliament and Council secured a political agreement on the New Pact on Migration and Asylum, bringing the reforms closer to implementation. Some see the measures as a political victory for European policymakers, clearing the way for more unified responses. However, the regulations could in fact lead to an 'age of non-Europe' in migration and asylum policy. This Discussion Paper analyses the issues arising from the reforms, which could consolidate states' power at the expense of community decision-making. Additionally, there is uncertainty about how the new system will function and its impact on the ground. This may lead member states to push even harder to outsource responsibilities to third countries outside the EU’s scrutiny. This is not the time for complacency. Attention must be devoted to the finalisation of the legislative texts and the development of implementation plans, as well as the identification of systemic and long-term needs, from financial support to monitoring.
Topic:: Migration, Treaties and Agreements, Asylum, European Parliament, and Council of Europe
Political Geography:: Europe

2665. NATO and the European Union: Bridging the gap

Author:: Andrew Duff
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: In this Discussion Paper, Andrew Duff examines how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has exposed structural flaws in how the West organises its European defence and how the European Union and NATO have struggled to coordinate, risking duplication and competition. Despite largely overlapping membership, neither organisation has been able to realise conventional solid defence forces. Europe’s armaments industries remain largely fragmented. Ukraine’s application to join the EU and NATO upturns the status quo. The author analyses how the Union's political and financial heft can best be combined with the Atlantic Alliance's military strength and recommends forging a permanent organic link between the two at the executive level. However, a joint command will enhance the EU’s development in security and defence, revitalise NATO, and ensure that the US and UK remain engaged in Europe.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, European Union, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:: Europe

2666. Russia’s war against Ukraine: Lessons on infrastructure security and new technologies

Author:: Auriane Técourt and Maria Martisiute
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: In 2022, Russia hit Ukraine with a major cyberattack and unleashed a full-scale war of aggression. This includes new technologies and AI-enabled capabilities such as the Bylina electronic warfare command-and-control system. Nord Stream and the Balticconnector also fell victim to sabotage attacks by hostile actors. In this Policy Brief, it is highlighted that the EU has stepped up its resilience and cybersecurity of critical infrastructure. However, the capacity to leverage innovative technologies and defensive AI remains underdeveloped. Furthermore, the protection of industrial control systems (ICS) remains unaddressed. As Russia upgrades its 2030 National AI Development Strategy, there is an urgency to integrate the security of industrial controls into the EU’s approach to the cybersecurity of critical infrastructure before Moscow strikes with deadlier offensives. It is also time to start building a measured, albeit scalable, deployment plan for new technologies that may be AI-enabled for European critical infrastructure in connectivity with Ukraine and Moldova. The Paper explains that the EU has strengthened cybersecurity and resilience of critical infrastructure, but there is still room for improvement. Considering the pace at which new technologies and AI-enabled technologies are developing, the following steps would enhance the security of European infrastructure: Possible attack scenarios. Mandatory SOCs and cyber hubs. Industrial control systems (ICS). Synergies between the EU and NATO. A deployment plan for new technologies that may include AI.
Topic:: Infrastructure, European Union, Cybersecurity, Artificial Intelligence, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

2667. Next Commissioner for Enlargement: Which criteria should inform the selection?

Author:: Berta López Domènech
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: With war raging on European soil, the European Union (EU) needs competent leadership – ready and willing to tackle head-on the polycrisis and polytransition confronting the Union and its member states. Enlargement will be one of the most politically heavy dossiers in the upcoming politico-institutional cycle. Therefore, the choice of the European Commissioner in charge of this dossier is of utmost importance. This Policy Brief examines what the candidate needs to possess for the role: Commitment to EU democratic values. Support for enlargement. Capacity to forge consensus among member states and candidates. Trustworthiness in the eyes of all relevant stakeholders. The Paper argues that without this combination of credentials, it is difficult to imagine how the next Commissioner for Enlargement will translate into practice the member states’ current discourse about the geopolitical imperative of delivering a wider and more secure Union of 30+ countries.
Topic:: European Union, Regional Integration, and Enlargement
Political Geography:: Europe

2668. Keeping the Promise: Reform of governance in the enlarged European Union

Author:: Andrew Duff
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: Provoked by Putin, the EU is having to rapidly revise its strategy for the future of Europe. Enlargement, long dormant, is now a top geopolitical priority. Defence has become a principal driver of European integration. This Discussion Paper examines how the two themes of widening and deepening the Union are interconnected. Ursula von der Leyen’s second Commission is preparing pre-enlargement reforms of EU common policies and decision-making processes. Despite disagreements among member states and nationalist political parties, the presumption of enlargement and the necessity of self-defence leaves the EU little choice but to continue on its federative path. No institution will escape the imperative of reform. Negotiations to expand the size and compass of the EU budget will be particularly difficult. Treaty change is inevitable — and should be well prepared by an expert reflection group. Faced with accelerating European unity, the UK will, sooner than expected, have to confront the issue of EU membership.
Topic:: Governance, Reform, European Union, Geopolitics, and Enlargement
Political Geography:: Europe

2669. Security and Eastern Enlargement: Bridging the Gap for Wartime EU Accession

Author:: Monika Sus and Michał Matlak
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: Given the unprecedented situation of wartime accession and the significant security implications of Ukraine’s EU membership for the Union and its Eastern neighbourhood, the EU should consider aligning the enlargement process with its broader security policy toward the candidate country. Failure to do so risks stalling the enlargement agenda due to unresolved security challenges. While some experts argue that linking security and enlargement policies could further complicate an already complex negotiation process, the opposite needs to be discussed. This Policy Brief proposes three institutional ideas that would facilitate integrating security concerns into the enlargement process without risking prolonging it. This includes examining the enlargement methodology, better collaboration between relevant Directorates-General (DGs), commissioners responsible for security, defence and enlargement, and the European External Action Service, as well as advancing the debate about the operationalisation of Art 42.7 to provide Ukraine with security guarantees in coordination with NATO.
Topic:: Security, European Union, Russia-Ukraine War, and Enlargement
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

2670. The ‘Grain from Ukraine’ Initiative – A crucial contribution to African food security

Author:: Pavlo Martyshev, Mariia Bogonos, Valentyn Litvinov, and Roksolana Nazarkina
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: This discussion paper estimates the effect of Ukraine’s ‘Grain from Ukraine’ humanitarian initiative on food security in African and MENA countries targeted by the programme. Ukraine is one of the largest exporters of agricultural produce, accounting for almost half of the world’s sunflower oil exports, 13% of corn exports, and 8% of wheat exports in the 2020/21 marketing year. While Russia’s war against Ukraine negatively affected global food security, it especially impacted African countries, since Ukraine is an essential contributor to local food security there. Of the total number of wheat and sunflower oil imports to Africa in 2021, those from Ukraine accounted for 16% and 23% respectively. Moreover, the growth of undernourishment on the continent is explained by a number of local factors: climate extremes, military conflicts, economic shocks, and disruption of food supply chains. The tight food supply in the region underscores the importance of Ukraine’s presence on the local markets. Our estimates, based on the World Food Programme methodology for calculating the number of people supported by the initiative, show that it has already supported around 16.2 million people in Africa and the Middle East over periods from 1 to 8 months. This is equivalent to feeding around 2 million people for one year. Using the acute food insecurity data from the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) for 2023, we calculate that the programme reduced the number of people facing moderate to strong food insecurity (IPC 3-5) by 1.4% in the African and Middle Eastern countries supported in the period from November 2022 to August 2024. Meanwhile, the number of people facing intense food insecurity (IPC 4-5) decreased by about 8% during this period. Overall, the programme has huge potential for development, which should be based on the humanitarian-development nexus that aims for a long-term reduction in hunger. Four main policy options could be considered in this respect: 1. Integrating the development programmes into agricultural production in Africa 2. Pursuing facilitation of agri-food trade with African countries 3. Increasing the supply of processed food products to low-income countries 4. Informing donors of the urgent priorities in maintaining African food security
Topic:: Agriculture, Food Security, Exports, Trade, Russia-Ukraine War, and Wheat
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, and Ukraine

2671. Russia and China in Central Asia: Cooperate, Compete, or De-conflict?

Author:: Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Lisa Curtis, Kate Johnston, and Nathaniel Schochet
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: Despite the many proclamations that Russian and Chinese interests would collide in Central Asia, Moscow and Beijing continue to work together in service of their shared objectives. These include, most importantly, keeping the United States and the West—and democracy—out of the region, maintaining stability, and pursuing economic benefits. Fissures between Moscow and Beijing exist, especially in the economic sphere, where China has become the more dominant power, and over the potential development of the Middle Corridor trade route, which could significantly disadvantage Russia. However, Russia and China are managing these divergences, and the overarching imperative to weaken the United States provides a powerful motive for reducing or preventing any friction from derailing their broader partnership. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has heightened the Central Asian states’ apprehensions about Russia, including about its capacity to uphold its security role in the region. However, the Kremlin remains committed to maintaining its influence in the region, and the war in Ukraine is restructuring economic dynamics in ways that will enable the Kremlin to limit the extent of its declining economic influence. Looking forward, the most significant change in Russia-China relations in Central Asia is likely to occur in the security sphere, where China is likely to take on a greater role, especially as Russia’s military and security services are preoccupied in Ukraine and with the domestic challenges the war creates. Any rise in instability in the region—which could result from an uptick in terrorist threats in the aftermath of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, or from the region’s brittle autocracies—could propel China to step into a sphere where Russia has historically played the primary role but that the Kremlin will struggle to fulfill while the war in Ukraine continues. For Russia and China, Central Asia is also likely to be an important building block in their larger counterorder-building effort. The two countries are likely to sustain—and step up—their efforts to build an alternative order in Central Asia, including by deepening cooperation and broadening the number of countries participating in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) to legitimize and demonstrate the benefits of their collective global leadership. This effort will face resistance from the Central Asian states that object to the concept of a Russia-China condominium of power in their region and have shown an ability to come together to resist attempts to turn the SCO into a forum that would strengthen a collective Russia-China security role in the region. The United States has an opportunity to redouble its engagement in Central Asia. The Central Asian states highly value U.S. political support for their independence and sovereignty, especially following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Washington can encourage greater connectivity and cohesion among the countries, demonstrating its support for their increasing cooperation with one another in ways that could strengthen the region’s economic attractiveness and political agency. This contrasts with the way in which Russia has traditionally dealt with the region, which is to try to capitalize on divisions and disputes among the countries. While it cannot match China dollar for dollar or supplant Russia’s cultural and political influence in the region, the United States can enhance its trade, investment, energy, counterterrorism, and diplomatic ties to these countries. Enhancing U.S. and European investment in Central Asia, especially for development of the Middle Corridor, could help prevent Russia and China from further deepening their grip on the region.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Strategic Interests, Cooperation, Competition, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Central Asia, and Asia

2672. Stress-Testing State Power: When Governors and Presidents Diverge on Matters of National Security

Author:: Carrie Cordero
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: As the end of the first quarter of the 21st century approaches, the United States’ unique federalist system of government is increasingly relevant as it relates to national security and foreign affairs. The activities of federal, state, and local governments are increasingly intertwined with national security issues, which in modern history have been reserved for federal government leadership and responsibility. This trend is observable through the assertion of existing legal authorities by governors, legislative action taken by state legislators, and litigation driven by state attorneys general. There are two main ways that states are increasingly engaging in issues touching national security or foreign affairs. The first is by taking action that does or could potentially impact U.S. national security. This includes actions such as litigating against federal government border security and immigration policy implementation, more assertively exercising National Guard authorities to effectuate homeland security policies or conduct law enforcement activities, or engaging in international trade directly with foreign countries, for example during a global pandemic.1 A second method is by taking action in response to an actual or perceived national security threat. This includes actions such as banning state government employees’ access to TikTok, strengthening election security based on threats as reported by the intelligence community (IC), or limiting foreign investment in a state based on national security concerns.2 In short, the interplay between states and the federal government as it relates to national security is undergoing a shift. As Columbia law professor Matthew Waxman has observed, “The federalist macrostructure of our national security system has changed dramatically during the course of our history, and it will continue to evolve.”3 This trend of increasing federalism contrasts with developments during the second half of the 20th century through the early 21st century, a period characterized by tremendous growth in the federal government’s national security enterprise. Milestones from that era include the 1947 National Security Act, which established the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), and the accompanying growth of the military and intelligence community enterprise. The post-9/11 era saw additional development, growth, and maturation of federal institutions engaged in national security. This era ushered in a new body of federal law and associated institutions created by those laws. These include the creation of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), which concentrated the operations and activities of 22 agencies into one. It also led to the creation of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), which provides strategic direction, policy development, and management oversight to the other 17 elements of the intelligence community. Meanwhile, throughout this period, the courts afforded substantial deference to the federal government on national security issues and legal authorities.4 The activities of federal, state, and local governments are increasingly intertwined with national security issues, which in modern history have been reserved for federal government leadership and responsibility. This year, the Securing U.S. Democracy Initiative at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) began analyzing the impact of increasing federalism on national security with the aim of developing recommendations that address certain practical aspects of this trend. Although there are a variety of areas where potential tensions lie at the intersection of state action and national security policymaking, this initial research report from the first year of work focuses on two specific aspects: (1) the assertion of National Guard authorities in a domestic protest scenario, and (2) the potential impact of a social media ban related to foreign malign influence on elections. A common thread through both subject areas includes a current and evolving national security threat of malign foreign influence. To examine these issues, the CNAS Securing U.S. Democracy Initiative developed and ran two scenario exercises in May 2024 to explore how a clash of legal authorities between the federal government and state governments might play out.5 Participants in the scenario exercises included former senior government officials who previously held roles such as agency heads and general counsels, a former member of Congress, former congressional chief counsels, former senior National Guard leadership and operational-level Guard personnel, a state-level former deputy secretary of state, and national and homeland security experts and practitioners. Many of the participants have held more than one professional position relevant to the issues explored in the exercises. The participants were charged with examining fictional scenarios set in October 2024, one month before the U.S. presidential election. The scenarios roughly assumed the real-world American political landscape as it existed in May 2024, which at that time included a president who was also the presumptive Democratic nominee seeking reelection in November. The governors represented in each exercise matched the political party governing that state in the real world. Accordingly, the Texas governor in Scenario 1 is a Republican; the California governor in Scenario 2 is a Democrat. This report provides background and analysis on potential tensions that can emerge between state action and national security decision-making in the context of two separate scenario exercises. The goal of the exercises was to better understand the dynamics and decision-making that might occur when state and federal officials disagree about a matter of national security.6 Participants were advised to consider constitutional, legal, and policy factors relevant to each scenario, and to make decisions based on the role to which they were assigned. This report summarizes these tailored exercises and provides insights that emerged from them. The report then provides policy recommendations intended to mitigate the tensions that the exercises suggest can arise when federal and state authorities diverge on issues of national security that were the subject of the scenarios.
Topic:: Government, National Security, Domestic Politics, Federalism, and State Power
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

2673. Potential Russian Uses of Paramilitaries in Eurasia

Author:: Kimberly Marten, Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Carisa Nietsche, Nicholas Lokker, and Kristen Taylor
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: While much remains uncertain following the June 2023 mutiny of Russia’s Wagner Group and the August death of its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Russia will likely continue to work with semi-state armed formations. Russia’s degraded military capacity and constrained economic resources, especially as sanctions persist, will increase the attractiveness of these organizations as low-cost tools for advancing Russian objectives and competing against the West, including to a greater extent in Eurasia where Russia likely perceives the competition as most intense. Prigozhin and his Wagner Group created a model that other opportunistic Russian actors will likely seek to replicate. Fewer financial resources available to Russia’s military and elite could increase the incentive to establish such groups, especially if these organizations can increase opportunities to improve Russia’s reputation as a reliable security provider or access new sources of wealth for the regime. Newly created organizations would likely face high barriers to entry in areas where Wagner already operates, including Africa. Therefore, if such semi-state paramilitary organizations proliferate—a prospect that has grown more likely after Prigozhin’s death—they could focus on new regions such as Eurasia. Given Russia’s declining influence in Eurasia, a region of long-standing historical importance to Russia, such groups could undertake new actions there to curry favor with Putin and the Kremlin. There are several ways the Kremlin could use semi-state security formations to advance its interests in Eurasia, including by waging political influence and disinformation campaigns, physically protecting friendly governments, sustaining Russia’s influence as a key security provider, destabilizing unfriendly governments, and limiting any threats that Russia’s diaspora population might pose to the stability of the Putin regime from abroad. Although Russian paramilitary and semi-state organizations are in many ways an extension of the malign activities carried out by the Russian state, the proliferation and increased activity of these groups would make it more difficult for the United States and its allies to attribute such actions to the Kremlin, complicating Western response options. These groups and the opportunistic individuals who lead them could, for example, stake out positions independent of the Kremlin or even at odds with it, especially in the case of extreme ethnic nationalists who have criticized Putin for not going far enough in his actions. The proliferation of these groups would also make it difficult to discern when and under what circumstances the Kremlin might be willing to escalate on these groups’ behalf.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Wagner Group, Paramilitary, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia and Eurasia

2674. Countering Coercion: Managing Chinese Gray Zone Activity in the South China Sea and Indian Ocean Region

Author:: Lisa Curtis and Nilanthi Samaranayake
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: The People’s Republic of China (PRC or China) has been engaging in gray zone activity—coercive behavior that is aimed at changing the status quo but that is below a threshold that would prompt a military response—particularly against the Philippines in the South China Sea (SCS), and these actions are raising tensions in the Indo-Pacific.1 Washington must closely monitor the situation and take steps to help protect the sovereignty of Southeast Asian nations from PRC intimidation and territorial encroachment. China makes ambiguous claims to 90 percent of the 1.3 million square miles of the South China Sea, including waters within the exclusive economic zones of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. Projecting power and dominating the South China Sea, with its critical resources and central role in global trade—around $3 trillion worth of commerce transits the seaways annually—is a top national security and foreign policy goal for China.2 PRC maritime bullying is not new, but it has intensified in the past few years, especially against the Philippines. Beijing aims to convince Manila to give up its claim to Second Thomas Shoal, an underwater reef located in the Spratly Islands of the South China Sea. The Philippines makes its claim to the shoal by housing a small contingent of marines aboard a World War II–era ship, the BRP Sierra Madre, that was intentionally grounded there in 1999.3 Philippines-China tensions in the South China Sea threaten to involve the United States, which has been a treaty ally of the Philippines for over 70 years. Despite the risk that tensions could further escalate, Washington continues to stand firmly behind Manila as it employs asymmetric tactics to push back against Chinese behavior.4 PRC maritime activities and goals in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), for the time being, are focused on protecting China’s economic interests (80 percent of its energy imports flow through the Indian Ocean), gathering intelligence, and projecting power, not on asserting maritime claims.5 However, China’s unrelenting aggression in the SCS has raised concern that Beijing will soon begin to demonstrate similar behavior in the IOR. Over the past 15 to 20 years, China has expanded from sporadic to regular presence in the Indian Ocean through its naval ships, research vessels, and fishing fleets, as well as a military base. The United States and its allies and partners must not be complacent about PRC actions in the Indian Ocean Region, especially China’s submarine port visits and docking of dual-use ships such as in Sri Lanka and, more recently, Maldives. Due to the high stakes involved, the United States and its allies and partners must balance the need to deter China with the need to avoid military escalation when responding to PRC gray zone acts. When there are violations of international law and norms or when the lives of official personnel or civilians are threatened, Washington and its allies must respond.
Topic:: Territorial Disputes, Gray Zone, Coercion, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Indian Ocean, and South China Sea

2675. Beyond China's Black Box: Five Trends Shaping Beijing’s Foreign and Security Policy Decision-Making Under Xi Jinping

Author:: Jacob Stokes
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: China’s foreign and security policymaking apparatus is often described as a metaphorical black box about which analysts know little. That is true to an extent, but at the same time, it is possible to develop a better understanding of the people, institutions, processes, and pressures that go into making China’s policies toward the world during Xi’s “new era,” that is, his time as the country’s top leader. This report pursues that objective by identifying five major trends mostly internal to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) party-state system that shape its foreign and security policymaking. In addition, the paper describes the effects that each trend generates, from bureaucratic incentives to behavioral patterns. The first trend is personalization of the system around Xi. It reduces the influence of various interest groups and therefore the need to bargain with and among them, raises the prospect of groupthink among the loyalists Xi has surrounded himself with, and potentially increases the importance of achieving certain goals for China on Xi’s watch. In addition, Xi’s centrality creates a major management bottleneck that could hamper the system during even brief absences. The second trend is empowering the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) over the state. That trend has made more officials into policy-implementers rather than policymakers, even on issues below the level of strategy. It has also increased central demands for ideological activities, such as Xi Jinping Thought study sessions. At the same time, while the leadership wants to improve coordination and might be making some progress, it stops short of actions that could allow government organs to coordinate horizontally if doing so might plausibly jeopardize the center’s control. The third trend is domestic policy headwinds and the search for alternative forms of political legitimacy for the CCP. This creates two contradictory pressures: China’s reaching out and trying to improve ties with the world, and its turn to an assertive and at times even aggressive form of nationalism to counteract stalling economic growth. It also dents the power and influence China gained through its rapid rise and its role as a massive market driving global economic growth. The fourth trend is further elevation of regime security over other concerns. This trend negatively affects Beijing’s ties with foreign countries by worsening the experience of foreigners visiting and living in China, exporting repressive political ideas and techniques to the world, and complicating how China’s foreign and security bureaucracy interacts with its counterparts. The fifth and final trend is diplomatic and military assertiveness and seeking an active global leadership role, which feeds a self-reinforcing cycle of growing tensions, requires PRC diplomats to shoehorn any activities into Xi’s marquee frameworks, and leads Beijing to build out structures of an alternative international order. Examining these trends helps illuminate the macro pressures shaping China’s foreign and security policy decision-making. Still, aspects of how the party-state makes decisions about its foreign and security policies—“known unknowns” —remain particularly opaque. These include information flows to senior leaders, the dynamic among Xi and his top advisors, and the structure and frequency of important meetings. More knowledge in those areas might shed light on larger questions related to whether there are informal constraints on Xi’s power and how Xi is thinking about eventual transfer of power.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Xi Jinping, and Decision-Making
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2676. Addressing a Human Rights and Looming Terrorism Crisis in Afghanistan: The Need for Principled International Intervention

Author:: Lisa Curtis and Annie Pforzheimer
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: Pursuing the same harsh policies as it did during its previous stint in power in the 1990s, the Taliban has increasingly clamped down on the rights of women and girls since recapturing control of Afghanistan in August 2021. Restrictions on education started with the Taliban mandate in March 2022 banning girls from attending school past the sixth grade. The Taliban furthered its efforts to deny women basic rights when it announced later in the year that women could no longer attend university or work for international nongovernmental organizations. These and dozens of additional restrictions on Afghan women remain in place today. Meanwhile, terrorist threats that emanate from Afghanistan are intensifying, and the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISIS-K) constitutes the main international concern, especially since it took responsibility for the March 22, 2024, attack on a concert hall in Moscow that killed at least 140 people. The Taliban opposes ISIS-K and had been fighting the group and eliminating its senior leaders, including the mastermind behind the August 26, 2021, suicide bombings that killed 170 Afghans and 13 U.S. service members.1 Regional groups like the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan are also active but face few constraints on their activities from the Taliban, with whom they share core ideological beliefs.2 The Taliban also remains allied with al-Qaeda and has even allowed the terrorist group responsible for the September 11, 2001, attacks on the United States to take on leadership roles within its regime.3 Monitoring threats from ISIS-K necessitates engagement with the Taliban, but U.S. counterterrorism goals should not prevent the United States from also pressing a human rights agenda. For the benefit of the Afghan people—especially women and girls—and the long-term stability and prosperity of the nation, Washington and like-minded partners must employ both incentives and disincentives to compel the Taliban to improve human rights. Since regional countries largely ignore human rights in their dealings with the Taliban, it is incumbent upon the United States, United Nations (UN), and European Union to follow a principled approach and incorporate human rights into their agenda on Afghanistan. In the long term, relying on regional governments to take the lead in engaging with the Taliban would result in disaster for the Afghan people and international security. The best hope for shaping future Taliban behavior lies with the UN, which can speak coherently and convincingly on behalf of the international community. In his remarks following a meeting of special envoys in Doha, Qatar, in February 2024, for example, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres articulated a UN agenda for Afghanistan that would be a starting point for a coherent international strategy. He emphasized that meeting participants had achieved a consensus to focus on counterterrorism, inclusive governance where all ethnic groups are represented, human rights—especially for women and girls, with an emphasis on education—counternarcotics, and more effective delivery of aid.4
Topic:: Human Rights, Terrorism, Taliban, and Humanitarian Intervention
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and South Asia

2677. Disorderly Conduct: How U.S.-China Competition Upended the International Economic Order & What the U.S. Can Do to Fix It

Author:: Emily Kilcrease and Adam Tong
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: To gauge the health of the U.S.-China economic relationship, one can turn to the words of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who remarked in March 2024 that U.S. “tactics to suppress China . . . [were] reaching a bewildering level of unfathomable absurdity.”1 Rhetorical flourishes may be the one bright spot in the relationship. As tensions rise over economic restrictions and policies on both sides, economic relations have become a worrisome source of instability in the overall geopolitical relationship. The economic relationship has become increasingly dominated by security concerns, and integration is seen as not an opportunity but a risk to U.S. interests and values. The United States must develop a strong, pragmatic strategy for advancing its economic and security interests within the U.S.-China economic relationship, accounting for the fact that the security competition is now playing out across the economic landscape. To inform the development of an effective U.S. strategy for the economic relationship with China in the context of rising securitization, the United States must learn from its past attempts to advance its economic and security interests in the relationship. The first section of this report, “Where have we been?” examines past U.S. approaches, along with the challenges of pursuing similar policies in today’s geopolitical context. The second section, “Where are we going?” distills lessons from these past approaches and defines a new strategy for the United States, offering recommendations to implement it. Broadly speaking, prior U.S. strategies can be divided into two camps. First, the United States sought to bring the People’s Republic of China (PRC) into the rules-based order and incentivize it to be a responsible stakeholder.* When that failed, U.S. strategy pivoted to one of imposing costs on the PRC and taking actions to constrain behaviors that threatened U.S. economic security interests. Within those broad strategies, U.S. policymakers have pursued four main approaches, in differing combinations and intensity, all of which involve associated challenges. They are: Play by the rules: The intention of bringing the PRC into the rules-based international system was to create external pressure that would align PRC actions with U.S. economic and security interests. Key efforts under this approach included the U.S. support for the PRC’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the later U.S. attempts to negotiate a bilateral investment treaty. Challenges for the approach include the fact that rules have a weak ability to constrain state behavior in a geopolitically contested environment where national security risks arise from economic integration. We need to talk: In light of increasing complexity in the bilateral relationship, U.S.-PRC dialogues were intended to identify and advance mutual interests while providing a regular forum to attempt to resolve disputes. This is seen in the Strategic Economic Dialogue (SED) in the Bush administration and the Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED) in the Obama administration. In other contexts, such as ongoing talks under the Biden administration, dialogues have served primarily to communicate the rationale for U.S. policy actions in an attempt to put a floor under the bilateral relationship.2 Challenges to this approach include that commitments made in a dialogue process may not be enforceable, the meeting can become the deliverable, and the dialogue process cannot alter underlying geopolitical shifts. Defense is the best offense: Defensive approaches relied on domestic U.S. authorities to counter specific harms created by PRC practices and policies. The United States has a wide range of economic tools (e.g., tariffs and trade remedies) as well as national security–based tools (export controls and the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States [CFIUS] process for conducting national security reviews of foreign investments), all of which have been used with greater frequency over the past decade. Challenges when using these tools include the disruptive and potentially escalatory nature of defensive approaches, and the lack of clear frameworks to assess the effectiveness of defensive policies. Additionally, relying on unilateral approaches can create friction within potential economic alliances. In the United States, defensive approaches have often suffered from a blending of economic, national security, and values concerns, eroding the legitimacy of the national security argument. Have more friends: These strategies centered on efforts to shape the PRC’s external environment through the negotiation of ambitious trade and investment agreements with major trading partners, with the goal of increasing economic integration with close partners, creating indirect pressure on the PRC to level up to higher standards, and developing common approaches to address concerns with nonmarket economies. Such an approach is challenging because traditional ways of shaping the external environment have not directly addressed securitization of the U.S.-China economic relationship. U.S. domestic political realities impose a considerable constraint on the use of trade policy as a strategic tool.
Topic:: Economics, Bilateral Relations, Trade, Strategic Competition, and International Order
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2678. AI and the Evolution of Biological National Security Risks: Capabilities, Thresholds, and Interventions

Author:: Bill Drexel and Caleb Withers
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: Not long after COVID-19 gave the world a glimpse of the catastrophic potential of biological events, experts began warning that rapid advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) could augur a world of bioterrorism, unprecedented superviruses, and novel targeted bioweapons. These dire warnings have risen to the highest levels of industry and government, from the CEOs of the world's leading AI labs raising alarms about new technical capabilities for would-be bioterrorists, to Vice President Kamala Harris’s concern that AI-enabled bioweapons “could endanger the very existence of humanity.”1 If true, such developments would expose the United States to unprecedented catastrophic threats well beyond COVID-19’s scope of destruction. But assessing the degree to which these concerns are warranted—and what to do about them—requires weighing a range of complex factors, including: The history and current state of American biosecurity The diverse ways in which AI could alter existing biosecurity risks Which emerging technical AI capabilities would impact these risks Where interventions today are needed This report considers these factors to provide policymakers with a broad understanding of the evolving intersection of AI and biotechnology, along with actionable recommendations to curb the worst risks to national security from biological threats. The sources of catastrophic biological risks are varied. Historically, policymakers have underappreciated the risks posed by the routine activities of well-intentioned scientists, even as the number of high-risk biosecurity labs and the frequency of dangerous incidents—perhaps including COVID-19 itself—continue to grow. State actors have traditionally been a source of considerable biosecurity risk, not least the Soviet Union’s shockingly large bioweapons program. But the unwieldiness and imprecision of bioweapons has meant that states remain unlikely to field large-scale biological attacks in the near term, even though the U.S. State Department expresses concerns about the potential bioweapons capabilities of North Korea, Iran, Russia, and China. On the other hand, nonstate actors—including lone wolves, terrorists, and apocalyptic groups—have an unnerving track record of attempting biological attacks, but with limited success due to the intrinsic complexity of building and wielding such delicate capabilities. Today, fast-moving advancements in biotechnology—independent of AI developments—are changing many of these risks. A combination of new gene editing techniques, gene sequencing methods, and DNA synthesis tools is opening a new world of possibilities in synthetic biology for greater precision in genetic manipulation and, with it, a new world of risks from the development of powerful bioweapons and biological accidents alike. Cloud labs, which conduct experiments on others’ behalf, could enable nonstate actors by allowing them to outsource some of the experimental expertise that has historically acted as a barrier to dangerous uses. Though most cloud labs screen orders for malicious activity, not all do, and the constellation of existing bioweapons norms, conventions, and safeguards leaves open a range of pathways for bad actors to make significant progress in acquiring viable bioweapons. But experts’ opinions on the overall state of U.S. biosecurity range widely, especially with regard to fears of nonstate actors fielding bioweapons. Those less concerned contend that even if viable paths to building bioweapons exist, the practicalities of constructing, storing, and disseminating them are far more complex than most realize, with numerous potential points of failure that concerned parties either fail to recognize or underemphasize. They also point to a lack of a major bioattacks in recent decades, despite chronic warnings. A more pessimistic camp points to experiments that have demonstrated the seeming ease of successfully constructing powerful viruses using commercially available inputs, and seemingly diminishing barriers to the knowledge and technical capabilities needed to create bioweapons. Less controversial is the insufficiency of U.S. biodefenses to adequately address large-scale biological threats, whether naturally occurring, accidental, or deliberate. Despite COVID-19’s demonstration of the U.S. government’s inability to contain the effects of a major outbreak, the nation has made limited progress in mitigating the likelihood and potential harm of another, more dangerous biological catastrophe. New AI capabilities may reshape the risk landscape for biothreats in several ways. AI is enabling new capabilities that might, in theory, allow advanced actors to optimize bioweapons for more precise effects, such as targeting specific genetic groups or geographies. Though such capabilities remain speculative, if realized they would dramatically alter states’ incentives to use bioweapons for strategic ends. Instead of risking their own militaries’ or populations’ health with the unwieldy weapons, states could sabotage other nations’ food security or incapacitate enemies with public health crises from which they would be unlikely to rebound. Relatedly, the same techniques could create superviruses optimized for transmissibility and lethality, which may considerably expand the destructive potential of bioweapons. Tempering these fears, however, are several technical challenges that scientists would need to overcome—if they can be solved at all. The most pressing concern for biological risks related to AI stems from tools that may soon be able to accelerate the procurement of biological agents by nonstate actors. Recent studies have suggested that foundation models may soon be able to help accelerate bad actors’ ability to acquire weaponizable biological agents, even if the degree to which these AI tools can currently help them remains marginal.2 Of particular concern are AI systems’ budding abilities to help troubleshoot where experiments have gone wrong, speeding the design-build-test-learn feedback loop that is essential to developing working biological agents. If made more effective, emerging AI tools could provide a boon to would-be bioweapons creators by more dynamically providing some of the knowledge needed to produce and use bioweapons, though such actors would still face other significant hurdles to bioweapons development that are often underappreciated. AI could also impact biological risks in other ways. Technical faults in AI tools could fail to constrain foundation models from relaying hazardous biological information to potential bad actors, or inadvertently encourage researchers to pursue promising medicinal agents with unexpected negative side effects. Using AI to create more advanced automated labs could expose these labs to many of the risks of automation that have historically plagued other complex automated systems, and make it easier for nonspecialists to concoct biological agents (depending upon the safety mechanisms that automated labs institute). Finally, heavy investment in companies and nations seeking to capitalize on AI’s potential for biotechnology could be creating competition dynamics that prioritize speed over safety. These risks are particularly acute in relation to China, where a variety of other factors shaping the country’s biotech ecosystem also further escalate risks of costly accidents.
Topic:: Security, National Security, Biosecurity, Artificial Intelligence, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2679. The China-Russia Entente in East Asia: Contending with Authoritarian Partnership in a Critical Region

Author:: Jacob Stokes, Evan Wright, and Nathaniel Schochet
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: Closer cooperation between China and Russia is a major force driving global geopolitics. But how relations between the two authoritarian powers are shaping specific regional and functional areas remains understudied. This report helps to fill that gap for the critical region of East Asia. The China-Russia relationship has improved despite—and, in some ways, because of—Russia’s war in Ukraine. Beijing helps to fuel Russia’s war machine and defends the principles Moscow uses to justify the invasion. Both powers are also deepening and expanding their relationship beyond Ukraine. The pair cooperate across a range of fields, from military affairs to economics and global norms. Undoubtedly, current and potential fissures remain in the bilateral relationship. However, the leadership in both countries carefully manages these tensions to ensure they do not derail the overall relationship. Beijing-Moscow coordination extends to East Asian hot spots, including the areas around Japan, the Korean Peninsula, Taiwan, and the South China Sea. Around Japan, China and Russia work together to advance their respective territorial claims and pressure a rival Northeast Asian power and close U.S. ally. China and Russia use multiple military tools in pursuit of those goals, including joint aerial and naval patrols, joint exercises, and incursions into Japan’s air defense identification zone. Together, these activities put significant operational strain on the Self-Defense Forces, Japan’s military, as they respond. On the Korean Peninsula, China and Russia have turned away from multilateral cooperation to manage the North Korea threat and toward blaming democracies and reaching out to Pyongyang instead. Russia has moved closer to North Korea to help offset Moscow’s diplomatic isolation and barter for weapons. But that cooperation has not yet undermined China’s preferences or interests. Beijing maintains its own working relationship with Pyongyang while coordinating with Moscow to blunt international pressure on North Korea. How China and Russia manage their relations in East Asia will be a major factor shaping the regional diplomatic and security environment. To the south, Russia increasingly backs Beijing’s actions to pressure Taiwan as Taipei reaches out to democracies worldwide. Moscow’s support for Beijing has been particularly pronounced during major cross-Strait events in recent years. In the South China Sea, Russia tries to balance historical relationships with Southeast Asian states even as its power wanes and subservience to China deepens. For example, Russia’s cooperation on energy projects with Vietnam shows that Beijing’s and Moscow’s regional interests sometimes diverge. How China and Russia manage their relations in East Asia will be a major factor shaping the regional diplomatic and security environment. Moscow’s presence and power in East Asia have already suffered because of its disastrous war in Ukraine. Over time, Russia likely will become even more subservient to China. The China-Russia entente might therefore prove most useful for Beijing in its home region.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Authoritarianism, Partnerships, and Cooperation
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Eurasia, and Asia

2680. The Chinese Migrant Workers in Indonesia: A Contested Security Issue

Author:: Ali Maksum
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: The influx of Chinese migrant workers in Indonesia has become a contentious debate and is perceived publicly as a threat. Chinese migrant workers are accused of seizing local occupational employment amidst high local unemployment. The government has repeatedly told people that Chinese workers are not a threat. In fact, several issues involving Chinese workers have arisen, for example, related to residence permits, involvement in smuggling, involvement in crime, even suspicion that Chinese workers were members of security forces. This article examines two competing representations of Chinese migrant workers in Indonesia. First, a public representation which is negative and strongly attempts to securitize Chinese migrant workers. Second, the government representation that views Chinese migrant workers in a more positive light and that acts as a form of counter-securitization. The paper argues that the failure of securitization of Chinese migrant workers by the public is due to staunch counter-securitization carried out on a massive scale by the government through political apparatus, mainstream media and social media influencers.
Topic:: Security, Smuggling, Labor Market, Migrant Workers, and Securitization
Political Geography:: China, Indonesia, and Southeast Asia

2681. Development and Metric Validity of “Escala De Fricção Logística (EFL)” for Assessment of Military Boarder Organizations’ Supply

Author:: Tassio Franchi, Angela Nogueira Neves, Luis Fernando Tavares Ferreira, and Eduardo Xavier Ferreira Glaser Migon
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: This article aimed to create and conduct a metric evaluation - with the establishment of evidence of construct validity and internal reliability – the Escala da Fricção Logística (EFL), adjusted for the Amazonian environment. Methodologically, the research is divided into two studies; the first, focused on the creation of the instrument, which followed already consolidated recommendations for measurement scales by theory. A second, in which the metric evaluation of the theoretical structure foreseen for the EFL is carried out. The items were evaluated through confirmatory factor analysis, with extraction by partial least squares, in order to generate evidence of construct validity and internal reliability. For this analysis, the EFL was answered by 110 military personnel who served in border organizations. The results indicated that the scale with 16 items divided into three factors - individual, environment and equipment - is valid and reliable to assess the logistical friction in the Amazon frontier region. An instrument is available that can be useful to generate data for the improvement of public policies in the areas of Defense and Transport.
Topic:: Border Control, Borders, Supply, Military, and Evaluation
Political Geography:: Brazil and Amazon Basin

2682. The Impact of the Ukraine War on Antarctic Geopolitics Through Fuzzy Cognitive Maps

Author:: Luiz Octavio Gaviao and Michael Bilac Barbosa de Oliveira
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: The purpose of this article is to evaluate the impact of the Ukrainian War on the geopolitics of Antarctica. Beyond the borders of the countries involved, the most immediate and noticeable impact of a conflict of this nature is evident in the economic environment. However, international relations are tested or shaken, exerting pressure on treaties and cooperation agreements between countries, through the reappearance of past political issues. In 1959, the Antarctic Treaty sought to protect the continent from territorial pressures capable of affecting its natural balance, but this type of conflict compromises international cooperation and brings to light old interests in resource exploration in that region. This complex system, composed of cause and effect forces that involve the interests of the different countries involved in Antarctic geopolitics, was quantitatively modeled by cognitive maps, which explore artificial intelligence concepts to evaluate the behavior of these forces. The results indicated trends in relation to 12 driving forces selected from the literature and evaluated by experts from the Brazilian Antarctic Program, allowing the evaluation of the dynamics of the system over time.
Topic:: International Relations, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, Geopolitics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Antarctica

2683. U.S. Grand Strategy in the Early Cold War: Priorities, Concerns and Policy Actions

Author:: Humayun Javed
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: The study aims to identify U.S. concerns and priorities in the immediate post-WWII era while exploring the primary American considerations in formulating a grand strategy during the early Cold War. The paper addresses the question that were Washington’s policy choices during the last stages of the Second World War and early Cold War primarily being driven by Soviet expansion in Eastern Europe. The study is qualitative in nature and uses exploratory research because the existing literature on the early Cold War does not sufficiently explain the rationale for American policymakers to adopt a global role. The research argues that the unmatched extent of U.S. power and influence, along with an ambitious vision to reshape the postwar institutional and security architecture, allowed Washington to formulate a grand strategy for its economic and political footprint in Asia and Europe, where the Soviet Union remained the only standing – yet immensely devastated – victorious power. Moscow’s own traditional insecurities on its western frontier and its considerable strategic influence and vision to shape the political and security landscape in Europe produced U.S.-Soviet tensions as their cooperation due to a common German threat had vanished. Therefore, American leadership was focused on taking global responsibility in the early Cold War to shape postwar international economic and political order in light of the prewar lessons and contain Soviet power and influence from jeopardizing U.S. preeminence on the global stage.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Cold War, History, Grand Strategy, and Soviet Union
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

2684. The Great Reset and the Near-Term Implications for the Chinese Economy

Author:: R. Reghunanadhan and J. T. Karackattu
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: The Great Reset has had a severe impact on the Chinese economy, with implications domestically, and on the global supply chain. One consequence has been the decline in the overall market demand in China, with a significant negative impact on infrastructure development and the labour industry. A unique aspect is a survey is to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on innovation and integration of digital technologies in China. The authors explicate the impact of the Great Reset on the Chinese economy, the implications on the supply chains that China is a crucial part of, and the global implications thereof.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Economy, Innovation, COVID-19, Supply Chains, and Great Reset
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2685. Indonesia’s G20 Presidency and Middle Power Diplomacy

Author:: Tatok Djoko Sudiarto, Febry Triantama, and Bimantoro Kushari Pramono
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: International Politics has not been immune to the disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, revealing that a country's behavior patterns and policies are inextricably linked to its national interests and power distribution in the international system. In this context, developed countries have a relatively higher level of preparedness than developing nations, whether middle or small powers. It includes the ability of developed countries to produce vaccines, whereas developing states rely on imported vaccines. However, the presence of international organizations such as the G20, APEC, and ASEAN has not thoroughly resolved this issue. Consequently, efforts are required to resolve problems. These efforts exemplify the characteristics of diplomacy carried out by middle-powers like Indonesia. Through an analysis of the prioritized agendas of Indonesia's G20 Presidency, the present study discovered that preparing the agendas in question was intrinsically linked to Indonesia's efforrs to build bridges between developed and developing countries. Thus, Indonesia expected G20 could provide advantages to both developed and developing countries. In addition to employing the concept of middle power as an analytical framework, this research was conducted by scraping the web for relevant information, which was then analyzed using the Corpus-Assisted Discourse Study method.
Topic:: Development, Diplomacy, G20, Middle Power, and International Politics
Political Geography:: Indonesia and Southeast Asia

2686. India’s Strategic Choices in the Multipolar World

Author:: Surendra Kumar Yadawa
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: The post-World War II landscape underwent a seismic shift, crystallising into a bipolar structure with the US-led West facing off against the Soviet Union, instigating the Cold War. However, the USSR's collapse in 1991 shattered this bipolarity, ushering in an era of American dominance (unipolarity). Yet, this once unassailable US-led global order is undergoing rapid contraction. In its wake, a fresh paradigm is unfolding as novel power centres coalesce to address shared dissatisfactions. Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran forge convergences, beckoning others to unite against US-led supremacy. Astonishingly, Saudi Arabia aligns with the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) as a dialogue partner, relegating its erstwhile oil-for-security doctrine to antiquity. Simultaneously, the Brazilian President advocates terminating dollar supremacy. In a bold affront, Russia challenges the US world order through its Ukrainian incursion. Notably, Emmanuel Macron declares Taiwan beyond the West's scope, potentially puncturing American hegemony. This paper fervently explores how the burgeoning multipolar world order engenders arenas for regional powers, scrutinising the prospects and hurdles that confront New Delhi as it navigates India’s foreign policy.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Cold War, History, and Multipolarity
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

2687. Turkey’s Dilemma and Strategic Stability

Author:: Jean-Pier de Vasconcellos Esquia and José Miguel Quedi Martins
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: This article deals with Turkey’s international relations and the impact of its choices in the International System (IS) in this new era marked by the return of competition between the world powers. Specifically, it discusses the Turkish dilemma, reduced to two possible courses of action: between adherence to revolutionary behavior, or association with the institutions of the Emerging Industrial Axis. This dilemma is confronted with Turkey’s trajectory since the end of the Ottoman Empire, in an explanatory historical effort. As for strategic stability, it should be clarified that it is understood as the set of elements that shape the ‘rules’ of the game in a multipolar world. The question that guides the research is how will Turkey’s international insertion take place? The hypothesis that runs through the text is that, unlike other times when Turkey has been subjugated by international constraints, this time it will be able to choose its form of insertion into the IS. The article is divided into five parts. The first concerns the predominance of necessity in Turkey’s IR trajectory. The second deals with the legacy of extra-economic coercion, which the US used during unipolarity, and the challenges this poses for strategic stability - which must be approached from a multidimensional perspective. The third part deals with Turkey’s insertion into the South-South Axis - it remains to be seen whether it will also join its institutions. The fourth part deals with revolutionary behavior. Finally, the fifth and last part deals with the role of the Middle East in the outcome of the Turkish dilemma.
Topic:: International Relations, History, Strategic Stability, International System, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

2688. Israeli, Palestinian, and American relations: Now and in the future (Session 3)

Author:: Peter Krause
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: The struggle over normalization and the future of American-Arab-Israeli relations in the MENA region
Topic:: International Relations, Normalization, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

2689. Israeli, Palestinian, and American relations: Now and in the future (Session 2)

Author:: Peter Krause
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: Words Matter: Understanding how Palestinians and Israelis Define, Use, and React to “Charged” Words from Terrorism to Settler, Intifada to Peace
Topic:: Terrorism, Peace, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, Israeli Settlers, Terminology, and Intifada
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

2690. Lessons from battlefield Ukraine: With Ukraine’s former defense minister Oleksii Reznikov

Author:: Oleksii Reznikov, Mariana Budjeryn, Carol Saivetz, and Elizabeth Wood
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: Lessons from battlefield Ukraine: A conversation with Ukraine’s former defense minister Oleksii Reznikov: Thursday, October 17th, 2024. Speaker: Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine’s former defense minister, led Ukraine’s defense establishment in the lead up to Russia’s full-scale invasion and during the first year and a half of the war. Mr. Reznikov will discuss the successes and challenges of Ukraine’s defense effort, the role of technology and uncrewed systems, and the evolution of the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war. Discussant: Mariana Budjeryn, PhD, is a senior research associate with the Project on Managing the Atom (MTA) at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center. She is the author of "Inheriting the Bomb: The Collapse of the USSR and the Nuclear Disarmament of Ukraine." Co-Chairs: Carol Saivetz is a senior advisor in the MIT Security Studies Program. She is the author and contributing co-editor of books and articles on Soviet and now Russian foreign policy issues. Elizabeth Wood is the Ford International Professor of History at MIT. She is the author most recently of "Roots of Russia's War in Ukraine," as well as articles on Vladimir Putin, right-wing populism in Russia and Turkey, and more.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia and Ukraine

2691. Starr Forum: The 2024 US presidential election: The world is watching

Author:: Katrina Burgess, John Githongo, Prerna Singh, Daniel Ziblatt, and Evan Lieberman
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: Starr Forum: The 2024 US presidential election: The world is watching: Wednesday, October 2nd, 2024. Experts weigh-in on how citizens and leaders from other world regions are viewing the November 5th US election. What do they believe is at stake for their countries and regions? Is America still seen as a model for democracy? How do they view the candidates? SPEAKERS: Katrina Burgess on Latin America. Katrina Burgess is professor of political economy and director of the Henry J Leir Institute of Migration and Human Security at the Fletcher School at Tufts University. Her research areas include Latin America, political economy of development, comparative politics, and migration and diasporas. She is the writer and producer of Waylaid in Tijuana, a documentary film that explores US immigration policies. "Courting Migrants: How States Make Diasporas and Diasporas Make State," is one of her award-winning books. John Githongo on Africa. John Githongo hails from Kenya, where he was a journalist and became a leading light in the international Transparency movement. He has held a variety of government, non-government and academic appointments, and was recognized by Foreign Policy magazine as one of the world’s 100 top global thinkers. Among his many posts, he serves as a senior advisor to the Office of the President of South Sudan on governance. He currently resides at the MIT Center for International Studies as its prestigious Robert E Wilhelm fellow. Prerna Singh on Asia. Prerna Singh is the Mahatma Gandhi Associate Professor of Political Science and International Studies at Brown University. Her research interests include the comparative political economy of development; identity politics; and the politics of South Asia and East Asia. Her book, "How Solidarity Works for Welfare: Subnationalism and Social Development in India," analyzes the causes of variations in social welfare institutions and development by focusing on the dramatic divergences in social policies and outcomes across Indian provinces. Daniel Ziblatt on Europe. Daniel Ziblatt is the director of Harvard University's Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies where he is also Eaton Professor of Government at Harvard University. His research focuses on Europe and the comparative study of democracy. His recent book, "Tyranny of the Minority: Why American Democracy Reached the Breaking Point," co-authored with Steve Levitsky, provides an analysis of American democracy in comparative perspective. Moderator: Evan Lieberman is the Total Professor of Political Science and Contemporary Africa and the director of the MIT Center for International Studies. He conducts research on the political-economy of development, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. He studies the democratic politics of governing ethnically and racially diverse societies, including the challenges of public health, climate adaptation, and ensuring respect for human dignity. Lieberman is the author, most recently, of "Until We Have Won Our Liberty: South Africa after Apartheid."
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Democracy, Domestic Politics, Donald Trump, Presidential Elections, and Kamala Harris
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

2692. Israeli, Palestinian, and American relations: Now and in the future

Author:: Peter Krause
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: The 2024 U.S. election and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: How the outcome here impacts the situation there
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Donald Trump, Presidential Elections, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, 2023 Gaza War, and Kamala Harris
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

2693. Starr Forum: The Israel-Gaza crisis and US policy

Author:: Dennis Ross and Melani Cammett
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: Starr Forum: The Israel-Gaza crisis and US policy: Tuesday, September 24th, 2024. Introduction: Evan Lieberman, Director, Center for International Studies and Total Professor of Political Science and Contemporary Africa Moderator: Philip Khoury, MIT Vice Provost and Ford International Professor of History Closing remarks: Karl Reid, Vice President for Equity and Inclusion, Institute Community & Equity Office Speakers: Dennis Ross is the counselor and William Davidson Distinguished Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He also teaches at Georgetown University’s Center for Jewish Civilization. For more than twelve years, Ambassador Ross played a leading role in shaping US involvement in the Middle East peace process as the US point man on the peace process in both the George H W Bush and Bill Clinton administrations. He also served as special assistant to President Obama and as National Security Council senior director for the Central Region, and as special advisor on Iran to Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. Melani Cammett is the Clarence Dillon Professor of International Affairs and director of the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard University. She also holds a secondary faculty appointment in the Harvard Chan School of Public Health. Cammett's award-winning books include "Compassionate Communalism: Welfare and Sectarianism in Lebanon" and "A Political Economy of the Middle East." Her current research projects explore "toleration" and reconciliation after ethnoreligious violence, development and identity politics. She has published numerous articles in academic and policy journals, consults for development policy organizations, and serves as a commissioner on the Lancet Commission on Syria.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Humanitarian Crisis, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Gaza, and United States of America

2694. South African Elections 2024: The Results and Implications for the Region and Beyond

Author:: Pranish Desai, Daniel de Kadt, Rorisang Lekalake, Lwanda Maqwelane, and Evan Lieberman
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: SPEAKERS Pranish Desai is a senior data analyst at Good Governance Africa, a research and advocacy organization headquartered in Johannesburg, South Africa. His work at GGA focuses on the issues of subnational governance in Southern Africa, political accountability, coalition politics in South Africa and encouraging data-driven policymaking within the region. Pranish is an incoming doctoral student at MIT. Daniel de Kadt works as an assistant professor at the London School of Economics, where he is an affiliate of the Data Science Institute and a senior visiting fellow in government. Prior to this he worked at the University of California, Merced, after completing his PhD at MIT. He has written extensively on the electoral politics of South Africa. Rorisang Lekalake is a senior analyst/methodologist for Afrobarometer, charged with contributing to the organization’s analytical outputs, strengthening existing methodologies, and contributing to building the capacity of network staff and partners in quantitative research methods and analysis. She is a 2023 PhD recipient from MIT. Lwanda Maqwelane, a PhD candidate at Rhodes University, is an early career research activist with a focus on policy development, just energy transitions and climate change education. She currently serves as a researcher at the Center for Researching Education and Labour at the University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa. MODERATOR Evan Lieberman is the Total Professor of Political Science and Contemporary Africa and the director of the MIT Center for International Studies. He also directs the Global Diversity Lab (GDL) and MIT’s global experiential learning program, MISTI. His most recent book is Until We Have Won Our Liberty: South Africa after Apartheid (Princeton University Press, 2022).
Topic:: Elections, Domestic Politics, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

2695. Strengthening Reintegration Support to Boys Formerly Associated with Armed Forces or Armed Groups Who Are Victims/Survivors of Conflict-Related Sexual Violence

Author:: Barbara Buckinx and Charu Lata Hogg
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:: This policy report summarizes insights from a workshop held in Bogotá, Colombia, on December 4, 2023, titled, “Strengthening Reintegration Support to Boys Formerly Associated with Armed Forces or Armed Groups Who Are Victims/Survivors of Conflict-Related Sexual Violence.” The workshop was organized by the Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination (LISD), All Survivors Project (ASP), and the UN Office of the Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Children and Armed Conflict (OSRSG CAAC).
Topic:: Armed Forces, Children, Sexual Violence, Armed Conflict, and Reintegration
Political Geography:: Colombia and Global Focus

2696. Countering Authoritarian Propaganda: Perceived Expertise and Persuasiveness

Author:: Isabelle DeSisto, Laura Howells, Grigore Pop-Eleches, and Jacob Tucker
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:: When do anti-regime messages persuade people living in authoritarian regimes to update their political attitudes? The literature on authoritarian politics has devoted considerable attention to understanding how pro-regime propaganda affects citizens’ attitudes, but far less to the converse: when and how anti-regime messaging is effective at bursting the regime’s information bubble. We argue that source credibility helps explain why some kinds of anti-regime messages influence opinions while others do not. To illustrate this argument, we draw on observational and experimental survey data collected in Russia after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. We pair time-series data with three survey experiments, which together indicate that messages criticizing the regime and its policies are more persuasive when they come from people with subject-matter expertise.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Propaganda, Russia-Ukraine War, and Persuasion
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Eurasia

2697. Prioritizing Palestinian Self-Determination is Long Overdue

Author:: Omar Auf
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The discussion about a one-state or two-state solution must be preceded by efforts to facilitate exercise of the right to self-determination by the Palestinian people. Only then can a realistic solution be genuinely pursued.
Topic:: International Law, Self-Determination, Palestinians, and Two-State Solution
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

2698. Less Than a State

Author:: Sean Lee
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Without a new framework that ensures true sovereignty and security for a future Palestinian state, the two-state solution will remain a farce
Topic:: Security, Sovereignty, State, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, and Two-State Solution
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

2699. Politics of Apathy and All-Out War in the Post-Gaza New World

Author:: Abdalhadi Alijla
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The genocidal campaign against the Gaza Strip threatens widening of the conflict into a regional war, creating new realities that may endure for decades
Topic:: Genocide, Armed Conflict, International Order, Regional Politics, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

2700. Why Hamas Cannot Be Destroyed

Author:: Grace Wermenbol
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Israel’s strategy to eradicate Hamas by killing off its leadership has proven ineffective for decades; the current war demonstrates the myopic nature of this approach
Topic:: Non State Actors, Leadership, Assassination, Hamas, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

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