Publication Year: within 1 Year and within 25 Years

2551. A Tale of Three Rights? Understanding How Republicans Are Changing under Trump

Author:: Thibault Muzergues
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Donald Trump has reshaped the Republican Party – and more generally US conservatism – to an extent and in ways that were unthinkable in 2015, when he first emerged as a serious candidate for the presidential primaries. To understand that, we only have to get back to 2012, when the Republican consensus on issues like free trade and immigration was literally opposite to what it is now. Back then, the party supported free trade without reservations and recognised a need for (controlled) immigration. Meanwhile, the Bush family held significant sway, with Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida and son and brother of the last two Republican presidents, considered a frontrunner for the 2016 presidential nomination. Fast forward to the present, and the Republican Party has undergone a dramatic shift under Trump’s influence. Today, being pro-free trade or pro-immigration is almost unthinkable for a Republican candidate in any primary. In the same way, the foreign-policy outlook of the party has drastically changed: dominated by hawks and neo-conservatives in the past, it is now much more influenced by isolationist and inward-looking imperialist elements (those have always existed within the party, but had been marginal in the past, in particular during the George W. Bush years in the early 2000s). Much like it previously did with the Bush family, the party now aligns more closely with Trump’s vision and family influence – exemplified by the personal loyalty tests that are now required for any would-be candidate for office to subscribe to in order to have the president’s support. This is not to say that everything has changed. The Republican Party remains socially conservative, advocating for example anti-abortion policies and low direct taxes. Seen from this angle, the litmus test of what makes (or does not make) one a conservative has not changed. However, Trump has reshaped the party’s priorities and values in significant ways, and will continue to do so. The Republican Party that emerged from the 2024 elections is distinct from the one that lost in 2020 or won the trifecta – presidency, Senate and House – in 2016. To outsiders, especially Europeans, Trumpism may appear as a monolithic structure, an image Trump has sometimes reinforced. However, the US president’s success (and popularity) lies in managing a coalition of diverse interests and ideologies. Trump’s coalition includes disparate groups like tech entrepreneurs from Silicon Valley looking forward to a bright future and former steel workers in Youngstown Ohio, looking back with nostalgia to a past that they would like to re-create. Some members of this coalition are organising and seek to apply an ideological lens to Trump’s instincts, in order to define the future of Trumpism beyond the current presidency. It is therefore extremely important to understand how the current Trumpian coalition functions – if we then want to understand where it is headed. Currently, the coalition ruling the party can be divided into three main groups: MAGA-World, the tech-libertarians, and the Country-Club Republicans.
Topic:: Donald Trump, Political Parties, Domestic Policy, and Republican Party
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

2552. China’s De-dollarisation Initiatives: Strategies and Constraints

Author:: Zongyuan Zoe Liu
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: A decade ago, renminbi internationalisation was a hot topic; today, it’s part of a broader, more strategic push toward de-dollarisation – accelerated by Western sanctions on Russia. While China’s efforts to globalise its currency began earlier, the risk of financial exclusion has intensified its urgency. Beijing’s approach is pragmatic and multi-pronged: it is deepening engagement with regional and non-Western partners developing renminbi-based infrastructure for cross-border payments, and leveraging its dominance in clean energy supply chains to promote renminbi pricing in key commodities. These strategies aim to enhance the renminbi’s role in trade and settlement while persistent structural factors – shallow capital markets and limited investor confidence – remain stumbling blocks for China’s currency becoming a global store of value. That may just be fine with Beijing, at least in the near to medium term. No evidence suggests China plans to dethrone the US dollar or replace the US dollar with the renminbi as the global dominant currency. China’s immediate goal is to insulate itself from financial sanctions in the dollar-based system. In a world where access to American banks and US dollar can be weaponised, China regards a functional alternative for cross-border settlement as a strategic necessity. With a trade-dependent economy and a leadership wary of volatility, China’s priority is currency stability, not supremacy.
Topic:: Political Economy, Governance, Currency, and Financial Services
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and Asia

2553. Austrian Hijab Ban Survey: What Muslim Women Think

Author:: Farid Hafez
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: The Austrian Hijab Ban Survey sheds light on how Muslim women and girls in Austria view the government’s proposed legislation banning the hijab in schools up to the 8th grade. Conducted shortly after the bill’s announcement on 10 September 2025, the survey collected responses from almost 1,000 Muslim women in Austria, offering a rare insight into the voices most directly affected. The findings are striking: 93% of respondents oppose the ban. The results further challenge claims that the hijab negatively impacts education or personal development, with overwhelming majorities disputing such arguments. Also, Muslim women who do not wear the hijab expressed strong opposition to the law. Politically, most respondents supported the Social Democrats (SPÖ), despite the party’s participation in the coalition pushing the ban, while many also favored smaller parties, but clearly rejected the two most vocal parties supporting the bill, the Conservatives (ÖVP) and the Liberals (NEOS), polling with only 1 percent each. Overall, the survey highlights both the broad rejection of the hijab ban among Muslim women and the gap between political rhetoric and the lived experiences of Austria’s Muslim community.
Topic:: Women, Discrimination, Legislation, Survey, Muslims, and Hijab
Political Geography:: Australia

2554. The Italian Job: Navigating between the UK, the EU and Trump

Author:: Luca Cinciripini
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Amid the transatlantic rift in the first months of the second Trump administration, Italy and the United Kingdom are seeking to position themselves as ‘transatlantic bridges’, drawing either on long-standing alliances or ideological affinities, to keep channels of dialogue open on shared challenges. However, this balancing act carries significant risks, particularly for Italy. The UK, no longer bound by European Union membership, enjoys greater autonomy in its dealings with the United States, although it risks undermining efforts to reset its relationship with the EU. Rome’s more ambiguous positioning between Washington and Brussels, by contrast, could weaken the EU’s unity at the negotiating table, eroding the coherence of its external action and contributing to internal fragmentation. Ultimately, bilateral initiatives by London and Rome may well serve to reinforce transatlantic cohesion – or to deepen its divisions and weaken the foundations of the EU.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, and Italy

2555. Can South Africa’s G20 Moment Consolidate Efforts on Just Mineral Supply Chains?

Author:: Margherita Bianchi
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: To assert greater agency over its vast resources and critical minerals (CRMs) – crucial for the world’s energy and digital transitions – African countries look at the first African-led G20 as a big opportunity before the US takes over the presidency next year. In the words of its president Cyril Ramaphosa, South Africa looks for a “grand bargain” that promotes value addition to critical minerals for inclusive growth and development.[1] Despite current global turbulences, the country offers a solid foundation for sustaining multifaceted diplomatic relationships across (very) diverse international partners,[2] thus hopes for a fruitful G20 are high. Canada’s parallel G7 presidency can be of help, as the strengthening of critical mineral supply chains is on top of the agenda[3] and likely one of the few topics where some progress is possible.
Topic:: Climate Change, Natural Resources, G20, G7, Supply Chains, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

2556. Europe’s Nuclear Alternatives: A Time of Reckoning Autori

Author:: Polina Sinovets and Adérito Vicente
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Europe faces an increasingly urgent need to reconsider its dependence on US extended nuclear deterrence, particularly in the context of Russia’s war in Ukraine and the United States’ strategic shift towards the Indo-Pacific. Europe’s potential to build credible deterrent capabilities of its own is limited to three alternatives: the strengthening of France’s force de frappe as a European pillar, the creation of an Anglo-French nuclear umbrella and the establishment of a European Multilateral Nuclear Force within NATO. The best course of action for Europe is to follow a balanced approach that enhances European autonomy while safeguarding transatlantic cohesion, with NATO establishing a structured dialogue on Europe’s nuclear future.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Deterrence
Political Geography:: Russia, United Kingdom, Europe, Ukraine, France, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

2557. China-EU@50: Assessing the Ups and Downs of the Relationship

Author:: Nicola Casarini
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: In Europe there co-exist concurrent, and often contradictory, images of China, which explains why Sino-European economic relations continue to thrive notwithstanding the political coldness of the last years. While the EU’s leadership views Xi Jinping’s China as a ‘systemic rival’ and the main enabler of Russia’s war against Ukraine, Beijing continues to be seen also as an opportunity by EU companies, universities and civil society groups. China’s dual image – that of a daunting challenge and a formidable opportunity – has characterised the Sino-European relationship since the mid-1970s.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Economy
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

2558. The Tragic Irony of the E3’s Snapback Move on Iran

Author:: Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: France, Germany and the UK have triggered the snapback mechanism to reimpose UN sanctions on Iran, citing Tehran’s violations of the 2015 nuclear deal or JCPOA. Iran rejects their authority to do so, arguing that the Europeans themselves breached the JCPOA by adhering to US sanctions and all but supporting Israel’s June 2025 war. Lacking a diplomatic understanding by end September, Iran could leave the NPT, Israel resort to new strikes, and Russia and China refuse to recognise the sanctions, weakening the UNSC’s authority.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Sanctions, Disarmament, Nonproliferation, and JCPOA
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, Iran, Middle East, France, and Germany

2559. Birdwatchers on social media: The mediatisation of intelligence organisations

Author:: Peter Schrijver, Lotte Nietzman, and Peter B.M.J. Pijpers
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: War has always affected the physical and cognitive dimensions of life; however, recent developments in Ukraine and Gaza have increased the emphasis on warfare making use of the virtual realm. Military actions now extend beyond traditional battlefields, significantly impacting virtual and cognitive dimensions through cyberspace and social media. This study examines how intelligence and security services in Ukraine, Israel, and the United Kingdom employ mediatisation—the process whereby mass media shapes public discourse—to achieve their objectives in modern warfare. Through comparative analysis of these three intelligence landscapes, the research explores how these organisations, despite being part of larger national security systems, pursue their own organisational interests. The study reveals that intelligence services use mediatisation for multiple purposes: engaging citizens, justifying operations, and projecting strength to domestic and international audiences. The results show a marked shift from secretive practices to open, public-facing communication strategies. The UK Defence Intelligence provides daily situational updates, the Israel Defence Forces Spokesperson’s Unit releases sensitive intelligence to shape narratives, and Ukrainian military intelligence publishes intercepted communications to undermine adversaries. This selective disclosure via social media represents a significant departure from conventional secrecy, reflecting the growing importance of information warfare. While this approach offers benefits in shaping narratives and countering adversaries, it poses risks to operational security. The study underscores the complex balance that intelligence agencies must strike between transparency and protecting sources and methods in the digital age, highlighting how communication serves as a tool for informing the public, justifying actions and discrediting adversaries.
Topic:: Intelligence, International Security, Transparency, Russia-Ukraine War, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Russia, United Kingdom, Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, and Israel

2560. The new power model and United States national defence agility

Author:: Stephen Willis
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: This scholarly article provides a comprehensive analysis of how Heimans and Timms’s (Heimans, J. and Timms, H. (2018) New power: How power works in our hyperconnected world—and how to make it work for you. New York, NY: Doubleday) principles of “new power” can be applied to enhance the agility and effectiveness of United States national defence strategies and policies. The analysis underscores the critical importance of fostering collective intelligence, adaptability, flexibility, transparency, and inclusion within the operations and decision-making processes of the US military, emphasising transparency and inclusion is crucial in promoting open source and open information exchange that involves service members and defence leaders at all levels in decision-making. This study presents compelling examples of how embracing new power dynamics can improve the agility of US national security efforts in terms of strategies and policies. Improved agility will potentially save lives and provide a competitive advantage over our adversaries. Additionally, the article highlights the significance of adaptability and flexibility in navigating the rapidly changing global landscape, underscoring the need for the US military to adapt to shifting power dynamics and embrace agility as a critical element in achieving success in the face of modern security challenges. Finally, this research delves into two critical areas: First, we explore a new power model for enhancing the agility of US national defence. Second, we discuss how the new power model can facilitate agile decisionmaking for US intelligence, specifically through the practice of open-source Intelligence. We conclude that making American national defence agile in its policies and strategies requires not only the application of new power principles and concepts, as Heimans and Timms (2018) understand them, but also the ability to apply new power in nuanced, incremental, and thoughtful ways that will allow for transformation of the defence and policy-making apparatus in a way that will be accepted and understood by policymakers and service members and leaders themselves.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Intelligence, International Security, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

2561. Public intelligence as a strategic tool: The role of real-time intelligence disclosure in the Ukraine War

Author:: Alfred Marleku
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: This paper aims to analyse the role of public intelligence as a strategic tool in modern conflicts, focusing on its use during the Russo- Ukrainian war. It employs a qualitative research design, combining comparative case analysis and document analysis to examine the role of public intelligence as a strategic tool in the Ukraine War. The primary data sources include declassified intelligence reports, official government statements, media coverage, and academic literature on intelligence disclosure and strategic communication. The findings of this study indicate that public intelligence disclosure in the Ukraine War has been highly effective in countering Russian disinformation and strengthening diplomatic cohesion among Western allies. Unlike previous conflicts, intelligence transparency played a crucial role in shaping global narratives and mobilising international support. However, its deterrence value remains uncertain, as intelligence disclosures did not prevent Russia’s full-scale invasion. The findings of this paper highlight how intelligence dissemination has shifted from classified circles to a public tool of strategic statecraft. The Ukraine War marked a departure from traditional intelligence practices, as the United States and the United Kingdom used real-time declassification to counter Russian disinformation, unify allies, and shape global opinion. This shift underscores both opportunities and limitations, as intelligence transparency did not deter Russia’s invasion. Public intelligence disclosures proved effective in neutralising misinformation and influencing diplomatic responses. Intelligence disclosure also had diplomatic ramifications. While it helped rally allies, initial scepticism from Germany and France revealed lingering distrust due to past intelligence failures.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Intelligence, International Security, Transparency, Russia-Ukraine War, and Strategic Disclosure
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

2562. Experiences of Finnish Defence Forces personnel on equality related to remote work— Career development opportunities and remote work agreements

Author:: Tiina Kähkönen
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: This study investigates equality issues related to remote work, career development, and remote work agreements within the Finnish Defence Forces. A total of 868 employees participated in the study. A quantitative approach was used, and t-tests (n = 868) were conducted to assess statistically significant differences in experiences of equality concerning personnel promotion opportunities, job rotation opportunities, and the ability to accept work regardless of location as well as suitable remote work agreements. The comparison groups were hybrid workers versus on-site workers, soldiers versus civilians, and men versus women. The study found that the personnel do not generally think that on-site workers have better promotion opportunities than hybrid workers. Remote work was seen as promoting equal job rotation opportunities among personnel. Remote workers agreed with this opinion more than on-site workers, and the difference in opinion between both groups was highly significant. The majority of respondents, particularly hybrid workers, agreed that equality would be better achieved through individual agreements on remote work. However, on-site women workers was the only group with the opinion that strictly limited remote workdays promoted equality better than individual agreements. Hybrid workers were less supportive of the current limits, and significant differences were found between them and on-site workers. This study highlights the need for more flexible, individualised remote work policies to enhance workplace equality. The findings can inform the development of management strategies and remote work practices in organisations. Future research could explore the international and organisational variation of these effects and provide deeper insights into employees’ perceptions of equality in remote work environments by integrating qualitative and quantitative methods.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Equality, Career, Remote Work, and Finnish Defence Forces
Political Geography:: Europe and Finland

2563. Future threat landscapes: The impact on intelligence and security services

Author:: Mikael Weissmann
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: This article examines the evolving nature of antagonistic threats in the context of intelligence and security services, with a focus on small and medium-sized countries. It explores the impact of hybrid threats and non-linear warfare in an increasingly blurred security landscape between war and peace. The study aims to understand the emerging dynamics of the grey zone and the new challenges these evolving threats pose to intelligence and security services. The article adopts a qualitative methodology, drawing on global examples and including the strategic use of hybrid warfare by both state and non-state actors. In addition, the study examines technological advancements, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), to assess their role in shaping modern threats. The article argues that modern antagonistic threats differ from traditional ones in both intensity and complexity. Hybrid threats operate across multiple domains, blending military and non-military tactics while exploiting societal vulnerabilities. The article highlights the growing importance of AI and ML in both offensive and defensive strategies as well as the challenges posed by rapid technological advancements beyond state control. The article concludes that intelligence and security services must adapt to these multi-dimensional threats by embracing flexible integrated strategies. Enhanced international collaboration, advanced technological integration, and a focus on resilience will be the key to countering hybrid threats. The findings underscore the need for intelligence services to operate beyond traditional boundaries to effectively manage the complexities of future security environments.
Topic:: National Security, International Security, Borders, Artificial Intelligence, Hybrid Threats, and Counterintelligence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2564. Humanitarian aspects of overcoming the social crisis caused by Russian military aggression in Ukraine

Author:: Aleksander Kuczabski
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: This paper analyses the humanitarian aspects of social security restoration in Ukraine. The integral social security level indicator was developed for this study. The state of social welfare in Ukraine in the pre-war period was investigated according to the author’s methodology. The losses of the social sphere in Ukraine as a result of Russia’s military aggression were also assessed according to the author’s approach. Further, Ukraine’s need for emergency humanitarian aid was discussed. Finally, the mechanisms for ensuring the humanitarian component of social security during the war were analysed. The article’s hypothesis starts with the consideration that even though the war is not over yet, some lessons can be identified, and those lessons should be considered in response to social security issues in the conditions of war and in the future post-war social reconstruction of Ukraine. Analysis of open information sources enables claims that the situation in the field of social security is catastrophic in the Ukrainian society. This is due to the war-related damages caused to the residential stock and social infrastructure facilities, the environmental consequences of the damages, and the risk of starvation. This article launches a global discussion on the role and place of humanitarian aspects in the provision of social security in a state affected by armed aggression. The study promotes the idea of overcoming the humanitarian crisis jointly by the united international community. Therefore, this paper is vital for a better understanding of the actual level of social security and its prognostication in post-war Ukraine.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, International Cooperation, War, Social Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

2565. Hellenic airspace violations: An updating note

Author:: Vasileios Symeonidis
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: This is a note to update an earlier published paper, which focused on forecasting Hellenic flight information region violations by Turkish aircraft. The update became necessary following certain geopolitical and economic developments in the Mediterranean, mainly the Athens Agreement. The least-squares best fit model for the 2009–2019 data set for Hellenic airspace violations was used, accompanied by additional ordinary least squares estimates and forecasts. We showed that the pattern of pressure on the Hellenic sovereignty described in the above-mentioned paper is now different in terms of the methods exercised; it is also cheaper. However, it is equally, if not more, effective. We interpret this shift by arguing that Turkey is a Political Realism follower, focusing on the importance of power, security, and national interest in shaping its actions, regardless of the ideological or ethical implications of such actions. This explains its preference for exerting pressure in the form of sea border violations and massive forced emigration from Turkey to the European Union via Greece. This note concludes that the pattern of pressure on the Hellenic sovereignty in the Aegean involving Hellenic airspace violations by Turkish aircraft has been modified. Turkey now prefers cheaper but equally effective methods, such as sea border violations and, in most cases, hybrid warfare tactics, like massive forced emigration.
Topic:: Security, Migration, Borders, Emigration, and Airspace
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Greece

2566. Lethal empowerment and electronic crime: A focus on radio-frequency interference capabilities

Author:: Tegg Westbrook
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: This article focuses on the capabilities of criminals in using radiofrequency interference (RFI) devices to target systems that use the Global Positioning System (GPS). Surveying over a 22-year period during which GPS has been widely used by many industries, it seeks to understand how the electronic threat has evolved and changed. Focusing on the accessibility, usability, effectiveness, versatility, transportability, and concealability of RFI devices, and utilising a number of sources from engineering disciplines, hacker events, and media pieces, it argues that the more reliant we are on GPS, the more threat actors’ target choices and means, ends, and, indeed, motivations for targeting systems will expand, elevating the risks to GPS users. This article finds that arguably some of the most disagreeable actors have elevated from unsophisticated to semi-sophisticated in the space of 20 years, and can target systems cheaply, easily, and effectively. In the space of two decades, the combination of war, the expansion of digitalisation, the commercialisation of military systems, and the demand and supply that feeds technological innovations, have left us with an entirely different threat picture.
Topic:: Crime, Terrorism, Cybersecurity, GPS, and Radiofrequency Interference (RFI)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2567. China's Quiet Footprint: Mapping Chinese Influence on Local Politics and the Economic Landscape in Kosovo

Author:: Adelina Hasani
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: China’s strategy to exert influence in Kosovo primarily centers on economic engagement and disinformation campaigns. However, recently, China has also shown a tendency to organize meetings with local authorities and develop cooperation across various fields, including the economy, culture, and the arts. Despite not recognizing Kosovo’s independence and lacking formal diplomatic relations, China engages through indirect channels, particularly trade, with the tendency to create municipal partnerships and connections with local businesses. This approach aligns with the Tao Guang Yang Hui principle, China’s grand strategy emphasizing the pursuit of national interests while avoiding overt confrontation. In contrast to Russia’s aggressive approach, China quietly expands its influence through soft power mechanisms, minimizing political friction while steadily deepening its economic presence. This approach is rooted in the Tao Guang Yang Hui principle or China’s grand strategy that emphasizes maintaining a low profile while quietly pursuing national interests. Under this doctrine, China seeks incremental gains while avoiding actions that might draw suspicion, provoke resistance, or force political commitments that could undermine its domestic priorities. This stands in sharp contrast to Russia’s more overtly assertive and confrontational strategy. Although China and Russia are often grouped together as external or malign influences in Kosovo, their strategies and objectives differ significantly. Russia pursues a confrontational approach, seeking to maintain a network of allies and proxies across the Western Balkans to counterbalance Western and U.S. influence. Rather than engaging directly in Kosovo, Russia treats the country as a geopolitical flashpoint, advancing its interests through regional partnerships and political alignment. In contrast, China’s approach follows its Tao Guang Yang Hui grand strategy, emphasizing subtle, long-term influence. It utilizes tools such as foreign direct investment, trade, business partnerships, and municipal-level cooperation, depending on what is feasible. By bypassing national institutions and often engaging directly with local actors, China minimizes political pushback while gradually deepening its presence and influence. This paper examines the contrasting strategies of Russia and China in Kosovo, with a particular focus on China’s expanding role through economic cooperation and its growing engagement with local-level institutions. Drawing comparisons with China’s broader involvement across Western Balkan countries - where its presence is often more visible and influential, such as in Serbia - the analysis highlights how China adapts its global grand strategy to regional and local contexts. Although China does not maintain diplomatic relations with Kosovo, lacks investments, and Kosovo is not part of the Belt and Road Initiative’s 16+ framework, China remains active in trade cooperation and increasingly seeks partnerships at the local level, particularly in economic, cultural, and artistic fields. The paper explores how China builds relationships with municipalities and businesses, often operating discreetly, to expand its soft power and influence public perception, especially at the community level. China’s presence in the Western Balkans has increased steadily over the past decade, particularly through its Belt and Road Initiative, which serves as the primary vehicle for engaging countries in the region. Beyond economic motives, these investments are part of a broader geopolitical strategy that tends to shape global norms and institutions and secure support from smaller states such as those in the Western Balkans in international fora like the UN. This growing influence should also be seen in the context of rising global tensions, where a bifurcated world order, reminiscent of the Cold War, is taking shape. With the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia, China has intensified efforts to challenge U.S. financial dominance. Western Balkans thus emerge not only as a strategic corridor into Europe but also as a critical region where China’s expanding influence may directly challenge the EU and broader Western presence. This research analyzes China’s soft influence in the Western Balkans through the lens of its grand strategy, with a particular focus on Kosovo. The analysis begins by exploring how China’s grand strategy is formulated at the global level and how it is adapted regionally, particularly in Kosovo, where China does not maintain diplomatic relations. A key objective is to shed light on China’s approach in the region, especially its efforts to build influence through business ties and local-level engagement. By unpacking China’s global strategy and examining its localized application, the study aims to inform the development of a clear, context-specific response by the government of Kosovo to mitigate China’s influence, particularly that which is pursued through non-transparent means.
Topic:: Grand Strategy, Disinformation, Foreign Influence, and Economic Engagement
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, Kosovo, and Balkans

2568. Strengthening the role of Municipalies in Promotion of EU Rule of Law Values in Kosovo

Author:: Rozafa Ukimerja Çuni
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: The European Union’s Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) with Kosovo, establishes a contractual framework for aligning Kosovo’s legal and administrative systems with EU norms. Central to this alignment is the rule of law, encompassing legality, equality before the law, transparency, accountability, and respect for fundamental rights. While national institutions lead the integration process, municipalities play a critical role in promoting and implementing these values at the local level, where citizens experience governance directly. This research explores the extent to which municipalities in Kosovo contribute to advancing EU rule of law principles. It analyzes institutional frameworks, central oversight mechanisms towards municipalities, and municipal performance systems established, alongside municipal practices, challenges, and stakeholder perceptions. According to the 2024 first semi-annual report on the implementation of EU-related obligations at the local level1, published by the Ministry of Local Government Administration, municipalities have achieved approximately 53% fulfillment of their commitments under the European Agenda that fall within the scope of local governance. Specifically, they have implemented 52% of the planned activities related to political criteria, 36% in the area of economic criteria, and 69% of activities on European standards. Key findings indicate significant institutional progress. The legality of municipal acts, a core rule of law indicator, has improved, with the proportion of illegal acts dropping from approximately 30% in 2016 to about 1% following reforms and implementation of the Regulation on Administrative Review of Municipal Acts (GRK No.10/2019) and the new Law on Administrative Review of Municipal Acts2. The MLGA’s oversight function, combined with the Municipal Performance Grant (MPG) scheme co-financed by donors such as Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, and the EU, has embedded legal compliance and accountability into municipal performance assessments. Municipalities are increasingly motivated to improve transparency, accountability, and compliance due to tangible incentives tied to grant eligibility and public recognition. Performance-based competition among municipalities has fostered a positive culture of legality and institutional learning. Surveys of municipal officials indicate strong awareness, with 75% prioritizing the rule of law and 71% access to justice in daily operations. Key informant interviews validate this, highlighting the MPG’s, judicial reviews and monitoring system “extraordinary impact” on legal compliance. Additionally, while transparency mechanisms are improving, citizen participation and inclusivity, particularly in gender and youth engagement, remain imbalanced. Despite these achievements, challenges remain. Capacity gaps in municipal legal offices, political interference, and inconsistent coordination between central and local levels undermine the consistent application of the rule of law. Many municipal legal offices operate with limited capacity and depend on external support for complex legal reviews. Coordination between central and local institutions, especially on overlapping competencies such as property management, justice, and procurement, is often fragmented. The 2024 EU Kosovo Report highlights persistent challenges in the relationship between municipalities and central institutions, indicating ongoing issues with coordination and communication between these levels of government3. Furthermore, inter-ethnic relations, gender inclusion, and youth participation are not yet systematically integrated into local governance frameworks. Addressing these gaps is essential for Kosovo’s municipalities to fully embody and promote EU rule of law values. By advancing these reforms, municipalities will not only strengthen compliance with EU integration benchmarks but also deepen citizen trust, accountability, and democratic governance at the local level.
Topic:: Governance, European Union, Rule of Law, and Municipalities
Political Geography:: Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans

2569. What Can Kosovo Learn from Spain’s Transitional Justice Mechanisms in Shaping Collective Memory Post-Conflict?

Author:: Mrika Shala
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: Tension between truth and stability shapes how collective memory is constructed: whether through silence, selective narratives, or formal transitional justice policies. Kosovo’s post-conflict governance continues to be shaped by a central dilemma. Competing narratives of the war and its aftermath remain institutionally reinforced, and these divisions affect political legitimacy, minority participation, and security in ways that obstruct long-term integration. In the north of Kosovo in particular, cycles of disengagement, contested authority, and institutional crises show how memory politics and governance are intertwined, with consequences that extend beyond symbolism into day-to-day state functionality. This policy paper argues that truth-telling mechanisms do not automatically produce reconciliation. They only contribute to durable stabilisation when they are designed to survive political turnover, earn cross-community legitimacy, and connect credible documentation to public acknowledgement and institutional practice. Where these conditions are absent, truth initiatives can remain episodic, contested, or politically fragile, even when they involve serious institutional effort. Spain offers a practical comparator because it illustrates how a state can maintain stability while postponing full reckoning, and how delayed engagement with memory can generate long-run political and social costs. The point is not to treat Spain as a model to emulate, but to derive practical lessons on sequencing, institutional incentives, and the trade-offs between immediate governability and deeper reconciliation. The paper proceeds in four moves. First, it outlines the core features of Spain’s post-dictatorship approach to transitional justice and memory, focusing on the political logic of postponement and later reactivation. Second, it maps Kosovo’s truth-seeking and memorialisation landscape, including state initiatives, civil society documentation, and the constraints imposed by legitimacy contests. Third, it analyses how parallel governance, segregated information environments, and selective remembrance shape political participation and institutional trust, with particular attention to recent shifts in the north of Kosovo. Finally, it sets out recommendations that prioritise feasibility, institutional continuity, and cross-community legitimacy, aiming to strengthen Kosovo’s transitional justice architecture in ways that reduce the political rewards of denial and deepen incentives for participation. The discussion centres not on achieving complete consensus about the past, but on constructing a baseline of truth and mutual recognition and assessing Kosovo’s willingness to undertake this task at the present political juncture.
Topic:: Governance, Transitional Justice, Post-Conflict, and Collective Memory
Political Geography:: Europe, Kosovo, Balkans, and Spain

2570. Strategic analysis of cyber conflicts: A game-theoretic modelling of global cyber crises in the 2000s

Author:: Esra Merve Çalışkan
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: In the rapidly evolving landscape of international relations, cyberspace has emerged as a new battlefield for interstate competition and conflict. The increasing digitalisation of our world necessitates a thorough understanding of cybersecurity and the strategic dynamics of cyber warfare. The current level of understanding of these issues is limited. This study aims to bridge this gap by employing game theory to analyse significant cyber crises that occurred during the 2000s. By modelling the preferences and strategies of states that have extended their global power struggles into the cyber domain, we seek to develop a framework for predicting systematic crises and conflicts in this arena. Our research examines eight case studies drawn from North America, South America, Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. For each case, we define the actors, their strategies, preferences, and potential outcomes, culminating in the identification of Nash equilibria. Through comparative analysis, we highlight the similarities and differences in cyber conflict dynamics across these diverse regions. This study contributes to the literature on cyber conflicts in international relations through its innovative application of game theory modelling and comparative case analysis. We developed a novel analytical framework for explaining state behaviour in cyberspace. Our findings suggest that game theory and strategic analysis can serve as powerful tools for predicting state preferences in the cyber domain. The results indicate that aggressor states often adopt denial strategies, while victim states tend to respond with harsh retaliation. Furthermore, we observed that cyber operations during election periods are attractive to both aggressor and victim countries, but this tendency contributes to global instability. In conclusion, this research argues in support of the utility of game theory and strategic analysis in modelling and forecasting state preferences and behaviours in cyberspace. Our study not only contributes to the existing literature but also proposes methodological approaches for future research. The insights gained from this analysis are valuable for policymakers in formulating effective cybersecurity strategies and for scholars seeking to deepen their understanding of the complex interplay between technology, strategy, and international relations in the digital age.
Topic:: Cybersecurity, Geopolitics, Armed Conflict, Game Theory, and Modeling
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2571. Artificial intelligence in financial security: Legal challenges in Japan’s AML/CFT regime and comparative insights from selected EU countries

Author:: Dawid Trela
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: This study examines the legal and regulatory challenges in deploying artificial intelligence (AI) within anti-money-laundering and counter-terrorist-financing (AML/CFT) systems in Japan (focal case) and in Germany, France, and Poland (purposive comparators). It identifies intra- and cross-jurisdictional gaps; assesses alignment with FATF Recommendations 1 and 15, the GDPR, and the EU AI Act; and distils transferable best practices. Doctrinal legal analysis and normative comparative methodology were employed, with limited functional observations where supervisory practice is documented. Sources include statutes and regulations, supervisory guidance, and case law issued from May 2015–May 2025, notably the EU AML package (Reg. (EU) 2024/1624; Dir. (EU) 2024/1640; Reg. (EU) 2024/1620) and the AI Act (Reg. (EU) 2024/1689), as well as FATF materials and national guidance (BaFin, CNIL/Tracfin, JFSA). All jurisdictions permit AI in AML/CFT, yet frameworks remain fragmented and under-specified for algorithmic decision-making. Key gaps concern liability for algorithmic outcomes; tensions between transparency/explainability and tippingoff; and safeguards for automated decisions (GDPR Art. 22). Germany/France show higher supervisory maturity (explainability, auditability, DPIA, human-in-the-loop), whereas Japan/Poland rely chiefly on general data-protection duties with limited AML/AI-specific guidance, indicating the need for governance-heavy, auditable, human-in-the-loop designs. Better coordination of the AML, AI, and data-protection regimes is required to ensure both effectiveness and fundamental-rights protection. Japan could benefit from EU practices by formalising human-in-the-loop requirements for high-impact AML decisions, mandating DPIAs, enhancing auditability/reporting for high-risk models, and expanding regulatory sandboxing. The EU should continue aligning the AI Act with the AML Regulation (via AMLA guidance), clarifying oversight, documentation, and explainability expectations for AML use cases.
Topic:: European Union, Accountability, Artificial Intelligence, Data Protection, and Financial Security
Political Geography:: Europe, France, Poland, Germany, Japan, and Asia

2572. Cybersecurity and incident response processes for maintaining operational security and continuity at vocational education institutions

Author:: Anna-Liisa Ojala
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The presence of cybersecurity in educational institutions, including vocational education and training (VET), plays a vital role in ensuring the overall societal security in an increasing digital world. This study explores how staff of VET institutions respond to suspected cybersecurity incidents, focusing on reporting channels and methods used. The objective is to better understand incident response practices in the under-researched VET context, with special attention given to the human and organisational aspects of cybersecurity. VET institutions operate digital systems that mirror real workplace environments and often handle authentic customer data, exposing them to risks that differ from those of general education settings. A qualitative methodology was employed, consisting of thematic interviews with twenty-seven staff members across three Finnish vocational schools. The analysis was guided by the Situation Awareness in Cybersecurity Incident Response model and the Zone of Proximal Development framework, allowing for a deeper exploration of how staff perceive and act upon potential threats. Although formal reporting procedures exist, staff frequently rely on informal networks and direct contact with IT support. Urgent cases are often communicated via phone, a method perceived as efficient but lacking in documentation and structure, which can hinder post-incident analysis and learning. Improving cybersecurity incident response in VET institutions requires the integration of formal digital tools with flexible, human-centred communication methods. Strengthening these systems is essential, not only for protecting sensitive data, ensuring continuity, and creating safer learning environments, but also for reinforcing the digital resilience of society as a whole.
Topic:: Education, Cybersecurity, Social Security, and Vocational Education
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2573. Technological maturity for Jeune École: The case of Ukraine’s naval strategy

Author:: Guntis Skunstiņš
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: This paper conducts an in-depth study on how Ukraine changed the balance of military power in the Black Sea. It conceptualises the idea that the development of modern military technology has reached a level of maturity, providing a new perspective for the Jeune École concept. The paper uses the process tracing method to establish a timeline from Russian full blockade to Ukrainian sea denial. The battlefield application of anti-ship cruise missile (ASCM) in the early stages of the war created the necessary conditions for establishing sea denial, followed by the continued use of ASCM, aerial drones, and maritime drones to consolidate the initial successes. The international community observed Ukraine’s deployment of unmanned systems with great interest, heralding it as the dawn of a new era in naval warfare. However, when analysed in depth, it becomes clear that traditional weaponry played the decisive role in achieving sea denial initially. Only after the Russian Federation’s fleet had been forced from the coastal waters did naval drones begin to extend and solidify the denied area. The research further indicates that even a smaller state can produce significant strategic effects using anti-ship cruise missiles and swarming maritime drones—principles rooted in the historic Jeune École doctrine. Findings reveal that technological advances have significantly mitigated the traditional limitations of small platforms, especially in adverse conditions. As such, the combination of Jeune École’s asymmetric maritime strategy and modern unmanned systems offers a viable blueprint for smaller nations to challenge superior naval forces, dispute blockades, and achieve effective sea denial.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Military Strategy, Navy, Russia-Ukraine War, and Warfare
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

2574. Enhancing maritime infrastructure security through AI-driven naval drone operations in the Southern Baltic Sea

Author:: Krzysztof Pająk
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: This study aims to explore the potential of artificial intelligence (AI)-supported drone operations as a proactive response to increasing maritime threats, particularly in the southern Baltic Sea, and to analyse the applicability of autonomous systems in protecting ports, offshore platforms, subsea cables, and pipelines under conditions of spatial congestion and geopolitical risk. This study adopts a qualitative analytical approach, grounded in the review of relevant literature, official reports, and statistical data from a variety of international and academic sources. The research process involves the analysis of existing materials to identify key patterns and trends related to maritime infrastructure and security in the southern Baltic Sea. Through inference, the study aims to draw reasoned conclusions from available data, particularly where direct evidence was limited due to the emerging nature of the subject matter. AI-enhanced naval drones can significantly improve the monitoring and protection of maritime infrastructure through continuous, real-time, and autonomous operations. The deployment of such systems enables faster threat detection and decision-making, thereby enhancing the resilience of critical assets, such as wind farms, subsea cables, and ports. Overall, this information should contribute to national defence and stability. In the face of rapid transformation in the southern Baltic Sea, driven by increasing maritime traffic, energy demands, and offshore development, the integration of AI and autonomous systems into maritime operations is essential in order to ensure effective spatial and security management. Unmanned vehicles, supported by AI, will become a cornerstone of maritime defence, enabling constant surveillance and rapid response to evolving hybrid threats.
Topic:: International Security, Biosecurity, Drones, Navy, Maritime, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: Europe and Baltic Sea

2575. When Citizen Action for Accountability Boosts Legislative Oversight: The Multiply-Ed Experience in the Philippines

Author:: Joy Aceron and Abrehet Gebremedhin
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:: The Philippines has long been confronting an education crisis. This was exacerbated by Covid-19, which prevented tens of millions of public school students from going to school. As a response, the national government developed a new education system to enable learners to continue learning amid the global health emergency. Such drastic changes in the education system and long-standing systemic problems in education governance prompted accountability checks to be undertaken in state and society to ensure responsiveness to learners and effectiveness in bringing forth education reforms. This Accountability Note on education reform in the Philippines presents an empirical pathway by which two distinct but complementary bodies have interfaced for a shared agenda of systemic education reform. These two parallel processes—an independent, citizen-led civil society organization, Multiply-Ed, and a congressional oversight committee, the Education Commission II (EDCOM II)—emerged with overlapping findings, actions, and agendas, showing the value of synergy between citizen-led action and government oversight. We demonstrate that accountability processes within the state and society can converge and reinforce each other even when there is no normalized collaboration. Common issues are tackled, institutional interfacing paves the way for information and knowledge to be shared, and commitment to the overarching shared goal of education reform is reaffirmed. However, even beyond converging findings, independent citizen-led monitoring like that conducted by Multiply-Ed has a distinct added value for the education sector. Through its movement-based approach to accountability, Multiply-Ed has identified an action-oriented reform agenda overlooked by legislative oversight mechanisms, that can help advance and sustain the reforms. This Accountability Note provides key takeaways for both social constituencies and government duty-bearers seeking to identify and address shared agendas through accountability. • Independent accountability efforts of state oversight bodies such as EDCOM II and citizen-led monitoring initiatives like Multiply-Ed can produce shared agendas and findings that are mutually reinforcing and may lead to progress towards common goals. • In the case of the interface between civil society accountability efforts and government oversight in the education sector in the Philippines, a shared agenda of enhancing the role of local governments, ensuring timely access to learning resources, ensuring teaching quality, and providing an adequate budget for education has been reinforced. • By bringing in the perspectives of citizens through platforms such as school governance councils, independent citizen-led monitoring provides a distinct added value beyond state oversight, offering solutions that are action-oriented and systemic, and sustain accountability amid the dynamics of political elites. • Mutually-reinforcing agendas and processes shared between civil society accountability actors and government oversight bodies can be key to harnessing state-society synergy, and pivotal in enabling progress towards power-shifting reforms.
Topic:: Civil Society, Education, Governance, Reform, and Accountability
Political Geography:: Asia and Philippines

2576. Open Parliaments in Africa

Author:: Idah Knowles
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:: An open parliament is one that makes legislative work transparent, participatory, and accountable, fostering a two-way relationship between citizens and their representatives. Across Africa, advances towards parliamentary openness have been lauded as governance breakthroughs, but what difference have they made in practice? Openness can sometimes be reduced to dashboards, consultations, and scorecards, prioritizing visibility over influence. The risk is that open parliament initiatives create the illusion of participation rather than meaningful change. Accountability emerges only when openness makes parliaments more responsive to their people and, by extension, executives more responsive to their parliaments. This paper examines Ghana, Kenya, South Africa, and the Pan-African Parliament (PAP) to assess whether open parliament reforms have resulted in institutional uptake and shifts in power dynamics, and where they have fallen short. Across cases, two conclusions stand out. Transparency has clearly expanded, and in some moments these tools have enabled civic actors to expose wrongdoing or shape reforms. At the same time, responsiveness is uneven, and executive dominance, partisan discipline, and structural exclusion continue to blunt accountability. Open parliament in Africa is less a finished reform than a contested process: progress is real but partial, and the challenge ahead is to link visibility to responsiveness so that citizens are not only seen and heard, but also heeded.
Topic:: Governance, Accountability, Transparency, and Pan-African Parliament (PAP)
Political Geography:: Kenya, Africa, South Africa, and Ghana

2577. Upwelling: Fishers Organizing for their Rights and Sustainable Fisheries

Author:: Judy Gearhart and Connor Moynihan
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:: Fishers face increased risks to their lives and livelihoods. Climate change and overfishing are sending fishers out to sea for longer periods of time or at distances beyond the capacity of their vessels. In response, fishers are pursuing new strategies to organize, build power, and defend their rights. This paper presents lessons from fisher organizing in diverse sectors. It aligns with the International Labour Organization (ILO) Convention 188 (C 188) on Work in Fishing, which defines fishers as all those working in marine capture, from artisanal fisherfolk to workers on the distant water fleet (DWF). The research reviews organizing trends in six countries and identifies common challenges and factors contributing to fisher organizing. In all six countries—Ecuador, Ghana, Indonesia, Mexico, Taiwan, and Thailand—new organizing initiatives have recently emerged. This research considers a range of dynamics that affect fisher organizing and their ability to access information, seek remedy, and influence policy outcomes. It provides insights from interviews with organizers and other fishery experts. The findings highlight areas where more work and strategizing are needed to build stronger and more influential fisher organizations.
Topic:: Climate Change, Sustainability, Labor Rights, and Fisheries
Political Geography:: Africa, Indonesia, Taiwan, Asia, Latin America, Mexico, Thailand, Ghana, and Ecuador

2578. Ten Dimensions of Network Strengthening: Lessons from Health Rights Advocates in Guatemala, Mexico, and the Philippines

Author:: Julia Fischer-Mackey, Joy Aceron, Hilda Argüello Avendaño, Benilda Batzín, Francisco Gómez Guillén, and Rosaura Medina
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:: Maintaining and strengthening networks of volunteers is central to the health rights advocacy work of four civil society organizations (CSOs) in Guatemala, Mexico, and the Philippines who have worked through networks to improve reproductive, maternal, newborn, child, and adolescent healthcare (RMNCAH) services for marginalized communities. Their experience shows that networks of volunteers that represent marginalized populations and have the skills to engage with public authorities at different levels of government can confront the political and policy issues necessary to improve RMNCAH care. This Accountability Note captures the reflections of these CSOs on ten dimensions of network strengthening that they consider critical to their efforts to strengthen volunteer networks.
Topic:: Civil Society, Advocacy, Public Health, Marginalization, and Volunteers
Political Geography:: Asia, Philippines, Latin America, Mexico, and Guatemala

2579. Paraguayan consumer import choice for twenty products from four countries

Author:: Michael J. Pisani, Rubén Alderete, and Silvio Eduardo Becker
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centro de Análisis y Difusión de la Economía Paraguaya (CADEP)
Abstract:: Over the past few years, we have published several open access articles featuring Paraguayan consumer behavior with a focus on general attitudes toward imports and imports from specific countries. More specifically, we have studied the propensity, morality, and openness of Paraguayans to choose domestic versus imported goods. In this study, we preview a set of 20 products that were evaluated by 363 middle- and upperclass Paraguayans in 2022 as to their necessity, importance, and familiarity among Paraguayan consumers.
Topic:: Economy, Trade, Imports, Consumer Behavior, and Goods and Services
Political Geography:: South America and Paraguay

2580. The Scale and Policy Implications of Nonfinancial Business Rents

Author:: Marc Jarsulic
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: The behavior of monopolies has been in the news. A federal judge, for example, recently decided that Google’s monopolistic behavior with respect to its search engine violated antitrust law. The FTC has brought actions against other large businesses, challenging what they allege are illegal attempts to create or enhance monopoly power. Regardless of how these individual legal actions play out, there is abundant evidence that barriers to competition and the market power of firms have increased over time. Since market power allows firms to earn rents – i.e. supra-competitive profits – an empirical measure of aggregate rent can serve as an index of market power. Moreover, when rents are large enough, they affect the distribution of income. This paper estimates rent as a share of gross value added for the nonfinancial business sector (NFB), and for the nonfinancial corporate sector (NFC), using distinct estimation techniques. The results are remarkably similar, and the estimates indicate that rent extraction is an important mechanism by which the income distribution has been skewed upward. Estimated NFB rents, for example, were $1.7 trillion in 2023. The results point to an important policy option: a tax on rents to support important social programs such as Medicare/Medicaid, which will at the same reduce the economic and political power of the largest monopolies and their owners.
Topic:: Finance, Business, Monopoly, Rent, and Antitrust
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2581. “Bailouts as Far as the Eyes Can See: A Critique of the “Money View” in the Age of Trumpism”

Author:: Gerald Epstein and Aaron Medlin
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: Monetary and financial relations are changing rapidly around the globe under the contradictory forces of financial and digital globalization on the one hand, and geo-political disruption, disintegration, and re-ordering on the other. These tectonic forces pose enormous challenges for our economy and society in both the North and the Global South. Trump 2.0, his administration’s radical financial de-regulation agenda and their push for crypto asset mainstreaming are adding significantly to the likelihood of a great financial crash and consequent pressures on the Federal Reserve for financial bailouts. We argue that an increasingly popular set of financial analyses that go under the heading of the “Money View”, while extremely useful for understanding the nature and mechanics of global financial markets, is in danger of providing a “seal of approval” for these “lender of last resort” bail-outs that enable the expansion of this socially inefficient and dangerous monetary and financial system. We contend that Northern countries and especially those of the Global South should insulate themselves from these likely upheavals by resisting the siren calls for greater integration into this unregulated, U.S.- dominated global crypto ecosystem.
Topic:: Globalization, Finance, and Cryptocurrencies
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2582. Interstate Highways and Urban Blight: Evidence from Administrative Housing Data

Author:: Thomas Walter
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: This paper estimates the effects of the Interstate Highway System on proximate urban neighborhoods using detailed American Housing Survey data from the 35 most-populous US metropolitan areas. I begin by identifying seven adverse housing conditions and measuring their prevalence with respect to the observational housing units’ distance to the nearest Interstate. I then use weighted linear regressions to estimate the change in likelihood for the presence of each adverse condition when a housing unit is near an Interstate. I find that housing units within one kilometer of an Interstate are 50% more likely to report being near abandoned buildings, 43% more likely to report serious crime in their neighborhood, and 21% more likely to be deemed inadequate. Furthermore, residents of these Interstate-proximate units are 53% and 41% more likely to report dissatisfaction with their neighborhood and housing unit, respectively. To support these estimates by accounting for the fact that Interstates were often intentionally built through marginalized communities, I also employ an instrumental variable approach. My results provide new evidence and stylized facts on the Interstate system as a locus of urban blight.
Topic:: Transportation, Cities, Quality of Life, Housing, Neighborhoods, and Highway System
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

2583. Investing in Power: Unequal Exchange in Global Value Chains

Author:: James Heitz and William Milberg
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: The question of how value is distributed within global value chains (GVCs) is one of the central questions in contemporary research on trade and development and an analysis of power is central to understanding this issue. This paper extends existing research on distribution within global value chains by focusing on the issue of power in both product markets and supplier markets. We present a formal model in which lead firms capture a larger share of value-added, either through higher mark-ups – monopoly power – or lower unit costs goods purchased from suppliers – monopsony power. Maintaining or expanding this market power involves costly investments in intangible assets, with the nature of that investment depending on the characteristics of the GVC. This framework provides new insights into the distributive dynamics of value chains, including reputation effects tied to corporate social responsibility. In this way, the paper presents an innovative way of theorizing international trade, inspired by the unequal exchange tradition, that can be extended in future research.
Topic:: Economics, Human Rights, Finance, Macroeconomics, Global Value Chains, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2584. Anchored Inflation With Differential Inflation Benchmarks

Author:: Thomas R. Michl
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: This paper presents a model of inflation and distribution that features a structural difference between the wage Phillips curve and the price Phillips curve. The wage Phillips curve revolves around conditions in the labor market represented by the employment rate while the price Phillips curve revolves around conditions in the product market represented by capacity utilization. Differences in the relative bargaining power of workers and capitalist firms give rise to stabilizing real wage dynamics that lead to normal capacity utilization. Wage and price setting are each benchmarked to a different reference rate of price inflation, and both are anchored by the central bank’s inflation target. Price-setting by capitalist firms requires accurate projections (inflation expectations) of their competitors’ prices while the wage-setting reference rate reflects the delay in keeping up with past inflation that firms impose on workers, so that more anchoring represents the loss of working class bargaining power. Greater anchoring of the wage-setting reference rate relative to the price-setting rate makes real wages vulnerable to erosion from inflation. Capacity constraints also generate inflation that erodes wages. The model sheds some light on the recent post-Covid inflation through these channels.
Topic:: Economics, Employment, Inflation, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2585. Inequality of Opportunity and Stratification Economics: Different Paths, Shared Concerns

Author:: Luis Monroy-Gómez-Franco
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: This paper compares two approaches to the study of inequality that have recently consolidated as distinct fields: the economics of inequality of opportunity (IOp) and stratification economics (SE). IOp examines how circumstances beyond individual control shape inequalities, while SE emphasizes how institutions and group identities reproduce intergroup hierarchies. I argue that, despite distinct origins, the two frameworks can be viewed as complementary. To support this claim, I outline the main features of each theoretical framework and contrast them along several dimensions: their equalisandum, the role of social groups, primary unit of analysis, and their conception of how structural factors influence inequality. The analysis shows that the distance between the two approaches is less significant than often assumed. Their differences enhance their complementarity, positioning SE and IOp not as competitors but as mutually reinforcing frameworks for understanding inequality.
Topic:: Economics, Inequality, Equality of Opportunity, and Stratification Economics
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2586. For G20 Food Security Task Force: Food Price Stabilization in an Age of Overlapping Emergencies: The case for multilevel buffer stocks

Author:: Isabella M. Weber, Jayati Ghosh, Sophie van Huellen, Merle Schulken, and Sudeep Jain
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: Food price volatility is increasingly affected by overlapping emergencies including climate change, armed conflicts and trade wars. Buffer stocks can stabilize food prices and contribute towards long-term goals such as food sovereignty and sustainable farming. We propose a regional African food reserve comprising regionally grown and imported grain, to stabilize prices over time and across locations as well as to incentivize more sustainable food cultivation in the region. Additionally, we propose global virtual and physical reserves to stabilize the prices of globally traded commodities and support regional reserves.
Topic:: Agriculture, Food Security, Sustainability, Food Sovereignty, and Price Stabilization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2587. Women, Peace and Security and Technology Futures: What World Are We Building?

Author:: Sahana Dharmapuri and Jolynn Shoemaker
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Our Secure Future
Abstract:: This report explores the links between technology, women's participation and security, and seeks to improve strategic decisions regarding technology norms and policies through the application of Women, Peace and Security principles. Technology, including Artificial Intelligence (AI) and future innovations, is reshaping the world, with profound effects on peace and security. The preoccupation in policymaking on short-term, strategic advantages often leads to long-term, unintended consequences – especially for civilians and those disproportionately affected by instability, particularly women and girls. The growing intersection between government defense sector and the technology industry is, furthermore, squeezing out civil society voices and de-prioritizing human rights and humanitarian law. In this context, the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) agenda provides a necessary framework through which to assess the emerging technology landscape, identify existing policy blind spots and inform decision-making within both the defense and technology sectors. This white paper is a first step in integrating WPS into technology and security decisions. It explores the links between technology, women's participation and security, and seeks to improve strategic decisions regarding technology norms and policies by examining three critical blind spots in the development of technology and AI through the lens of the WPS framework.
Topic:: Security, Science and Technology, Women, Artificial Intelligence, Norms, Instability, Women, Peace, and and Security (WPS)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2588. Shocks & Shifts: Impact of Major Donor Funding Cuts on LGBTI Intermediary Infrastructure – Summary Report

Author:: Global Philanthropy Project (GPP)
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Global Philanthropy Project (GPP)
Abstract:: Global LGBTI intermediary funders—key organizations that channel resources, strengthen local movements, and sustain essential infrastructure—are facing a period of acute instability. In July 2025, GPP surveyed 29 of the leading LGBTI intermediary funders. Their responses, combined with trends from the 2021–2022 Global Resources Report, reveal the profound and immediate effects of major donor withdrawals, particularly the rapid elimination of U.S. Government support. In the last Global Resources Report (for years 2021–2022), the 29 participating intermediary funders accounted for more than half (54%) of the number of grants awarded for work focused on LGBTI communities in the Global South and East (GSE). Given this, the key findings in this report map the tectonic shifts in ODA and philanthropy that are influencing the global LGBTI funding ecosystem. This report is a snapshot in time and provides the clearest picture yet of what intermediaries are experiencing in 2025, based on self-reported data. Through a range of upcoming research, GPP will continue to monitor and update on the shifting of the LGBTI funding landscape.
Topic:: Infrastructure, LGBT+, Donors, Funding, and Instability
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2589. The Role of the Private Sector in Advancing Women, Peace and Security

Author:: Our Secure Future
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Our Secure Future
Abstract:: This policy brief examines the vital importance of the private sector's engagement with the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) agenda. Exploring the intersection of WPS and the private sector, this publication highlights policy frameworks for private sector engagement, women’s contributions to economic development, and the potential to achieve a greater global GDP when women fully participate in their nations' economies. The brief examines lessons learned and best practices for private sector participation and provides recommendations for private institutions on how to effectively collaborate with governments, civil society, and international organizations on an operational and strategic level to advance WPS.
Topic:: Economy, Private Sector, Participation, Women, Peace, and and Security (WPS)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2590. The International Politics of Renewable Energy and Regeneration in the Context of Climate Adaptation and Mitigation: Prospects and Challengs for Africa

Author:: Kenneth Chukwuemeka Nwoko
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: Africa is at a critical intersection in the broader global struggle against climate change, as well as in efforts to adapt to its impact. On the one hand, the continent has contributed least to greenhouse gas emissions and carbon pollution relative to its size and population. On the other hand, it stands at the forefront of the devastating impacts of climate change: from the inten-sifying desertification of the Sahel and Southern Africa to droughts and extreme weather in East Africa, as well as rising sea levels undermining coastal cities such as Lagos and Accra. These woes are compounded by a host of pressures that threaten local ecosystems and the ability of communities to adapt to the changing environment, including land grabs, and extractive and colonial resource exploitation. Unfortunately, the current approaches to the international politics surrounding climate change do not equitably address the needs of African nation-states or the continent’s people (Grimaldi 2018).Taking the ideas of regeneration and renewability as a starting point, energy production and consumption represents one of the most significant global political challenges, as well as opportunities. For African nation-states, questions about how to address energy poverty — a condition that afflicts 600 million people on the continent — while rapidly industrialising are paramount. Nevertheless, the international politics of renewable energy is crucial beyond Africa’s borders, with geopolitical implications fermenting across the globe. Renewable energy resources and technologies could reshape power in Africa. Where colonialism and postcolonial approaches to extraction empla-ced power in largely exogenous metropolitan cities, the continent possesses significant renewable energy resources — onshore wind, offshore wind, solar, hydropower, and geothermal — that, if developed in sovereignty and directed towards the needs of local populations, could address energy poverty and foster local industrialisation. However, addressing climate change and, more broadly, moving towards sustainable production and consumption requires excavation beyond Africa’s borders. Thus, there is a need to investigate the international politics of renewable energy, with Africa at the centre. To do this, three research questions are posed: 1) What are the essential policies and regulatory frameworks for enabling renewable energy initiatives in Africa? 2) What are the prospects concerning renewable energy implementation and regeneration in Africa, and what barriers are encountered? 3) What should be considered in the international politics of renewable energy initiatives, espe-cially regarding developing and emerging countries, particularly in Africa?
Topic:: Climate Change, Renewable Energy, Adaptation, International Politics, and Mitigation
Political Geography:: Africa

2591. Borders Without Belonging: Statelessness, Displacement, and Human Insecurity in Post-Handover Bakassi

Author:: Seun Bamidele
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: The Bakassi Peninsula conflict remains one of the most complex and enduring examples of postcolonial territorial disputes in Africa, rai-sing urgent questions about legal sovereignty, resource control, and human security. Originally situated within the fluid and often contested borders of colonial cartography, Bakassi was subject to shifting territorial claims by Nigeria and Cameroon, a conflict that culminated in the 2002 International Court of Justice (ICJ) judgment awarding the peninsula to Cameroon (ICJ 2002a; 2002b). While hailed internationally as a triumph of legal diplomacy and pacific settlement (International Peace Institute 2008; United Nations 2008), the ruling and its aftermath exposed the severe disjuncture between international law and local realities, particularly for Bakassi’s inhabitants who faced statelessness, displacement, and legal ambiguity (Odinkalu 2012; Hussain 2023; Oyewo 2021).The existing scholarship on the Bakassi conflict has primarily focused on its geopolitical and legal dimensions, particularly the role of the ICJ in adjudicating territorial disputes and enforcing treaty obligations between sta-tes (Bonchuk 2014; Ezeilo 2010; Nwoko 2015). Other studies have examined Nigeria–Cameroon bilateral relations, the role of natural resources in fueling the conflict, and the enforcement challenges of international decisions (Hart 2022; Ebolo 2022; Egeran 2015). While these contributions are valuable, they tend to adopt a state-centric lens that overlooks the lived experiences of affected populations, particularly in relation to citizenship, displacement, and social exclusion.This study departs from such frameworks by foregrounding the human consequences of legal diplomacy, particularly the emergence of pos-tcolonial statelessness and the marginalization of displaced persons. It builds on, but also critiques, literature that under-theorizes the link between inter-national legal processes and everyday governance failures in borderlands.
Topic:: Displacement, Borders, Human Security, Statelessness, and Insecurity
Political Geography:: Africa, Nigeria, Cameroon, and Bakassi Peninsula

2592. Obstructed Paths to Justice: Land Grabbing and the Crisis of Reconciliation in Central Nigeria's Postcolonial Conflicts

Author:: Gloria Longbaam-Alli
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: Proudly referred to as the “Food Basket of the Nation,” Central Nigeria was once regarded as a tranquil region, largely insulated from the ethno--religious conflicts prevalent in Northern Nigeria. Historical and colonial legacies from the pre-colonial era allowed farming communities in Plateau and Benue to coexist alongside Fulani pastoralists. When conflicts arose, traditional conflict resolution systems were employed. However, British indi-rect rule facilitated the political dominance of the Hausa-Fulani elite over minority groups in Central Nigeria. Land policies favoured “settlers,” such as the Hausa-Fulani, while marginalising “indigenes,” thus creating admi-nistrative hierarchies that fostered enduring resentment (Madueke 2018; Logams 2004; Ochonu 2014)Post-independence, relations among minority groups that rallied under the “Middle-Belt” identity emerged as a form of resistance to Hausa--Fulani control. The foundations of identity politics established during the colonial period, along with the weaponisation of historical grievances, have been utilised over the years to justify violence and clashes involving herders and farmers. For instance, land conflicts between Fulani pastoralists and far-ming communities in Central Nigeria have recently intensified, resulting in cyclical violence and hindering reconciliation efforts. This study explores the critical role of unresolved land grabs in perpetuating farmer-herder clashes and obstructing sustainable peacebuilding in the region. Between 2010 and 2022, ethno-religious tensions, cultural disputes, and land conflicts between Fulani Muslim pastoralists or agro-pastoralist settlers and Indigenous Chris-tian farmers have had a devastating impact, leading to numerous fatalities (Nigeria Watch 2021).
Topic:: Territorial Disputes, Reconciliation, Armed Conflict, and Post-Colonial
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

2593. Mexico: A Pivotal State on the Global Stage

Author:: Ryan C. Berg, Rubi Biedsoe, and Michael Ferguson
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: In his 1867 Manifesto to the Nation, Benito Juárez famously stated: “Among individuals, as among nations, respect for the rights of others is peace.”1 Spoken by Mexico’s first indigenous president, Juárez’s quote demonstrates Mexico’s view of the global order—that countries should promote national sovereignty, security, and prosperity through collaboration and dialogue rather than through intervention. Mexico effectively operates with one foot in the door of the Global North, via its position in North America, and one foot in the door of the Global South, as one of the leading economies and cultural powerhouses of Latin America. This hybrid role, characterized by some as a “pivotal state,” has created both opportunities for leverage and areas of tension with other countries, particularly with regards to its close but complicated relationship with its northern neighbor.2 A key player and beneficiary of a global economy underpinned by a U.S.-led order, Mexico has found itself in a state of “autonomy within limits,” by which U.S. interests oftentimes circumscribe Mexico’s range of potential actions.3 Being the United States’ southern neighbor both grants Mexico unmatched economic benefits and presents it with a delicate balancing act: In pursuing autonomy within limits, Mexico must maximize its benefits from the Western-led order while asserting its sovereignty and reducing its dependence on the order’s biggest players, especially the United States. This tension influences Mexico’s policy positions as its presidents balance nationalistic rhetoric at home and trying to assuage U.S. concerns. Mexico’s balancing act also exacerbates divisions between the country’s pro–Global North elites and its disadvantaged populations who have not received the benefits of global economic integration, which has led to the success of the social welfare and populist-oriented Morena party. Mexico’s effort to maintain relations with its neighbor to the north consumes most of its foreign policy energy. But Mexico’s foreign policy DNA, often described as noninterventionism or the Estrada Doctrine (after Foreign Affairs Minister Genaro Estrada), can sometimes undercut its desire to play a leadership role on the global stage. Mexico firmly believes that nonintervention in the internal affairs of other countries can earn it a seat at the tables that matter, allowing it to negotiate or mediate conflicts. In practice, however, Mexico has demonstrated little global leadership of late, preferring to stay on the sidelines (and under President Lopez Obrador, to focus on his project of domestic transformation). Mexico’s ultimate goal is to exert full sovereignty over its domestic affairs; it has also used its political capital on the global stage to openly criticize the role of U.S. sanctions and containment policies against Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela for contributing the region’s security and migration crises. Further, Mexico does not see the world through the West’s post–Cold War lens, but rather as a group of politically equal states. China and Russia are treated as normal states in the international system the same way Algeria, Ethiopia, or Thailand might be.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Geopolitics, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Latin America, North America, and Mexico

2594. The United Arab Emirates: From Footnote to Sophisticated Global Partner

Author:: Jon B. Alterman
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Vladimir Putin bounded down two dozen steps from his presidential plane on the morning of December 6, 2023. It must have felt good to be on the road again. An International Criminal Court indictment following his invasion of Ukraine had limited his international travel to former Soviet states, China, and Iran—but now, he seemed free. While world leaders were focused on the COP28 conference in Dubai, Putin—escorted by four Su-35 fighter jets—arrived in Abu Dhabi to a hero’s welcome. Lampposts were draped with Russian and Emirati flags. His limousine rolled past Bedouin guards and their camels lining the right side of the road, while mounted cavalry bearing Russian flags lined the left. The seven jets of the UAE Air Force’s acrobatic team streaked overhead, their colored smoke painting the Russian tricolor across the skies of the Emirati capital. The onward trip to Saudi Arabia for a few hours that evening almost felt like an anticlimax. For nearly two decades, the leadership of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has spared no effort in portraying itself as an essential Middle East partner to the United States, a beacon of moderation, and a catalyst for regional transformation. The push had its origins in crisis: two of the 9/11 hijackers were Emirati, leaving behind distrust among some in Congress and the American security establishment. The Emirati leadership confronted those perceptions head-on, skillfully courting U.S. government officials, senior military officers, and opinion leaders over the years. They judged that success in Washington was impossible if Israel and the UAE were at loggerheads, so outreach extended to the American Jewish community and included many years of quiet conversations with Israeli officials, culminating in U.S.-brokered diplomatic recognition in 2020. The Emirati goal with each successive U.S. president, it seemed, was to be considered America’s favorite Arab state. That effort was largely a success. For many in Washington and across the United States, the UAE became a model for the Middle East. And yet, as the Biden administration sought to rally the world after February 2022 to defend Ukraine and isolate Russia, the UAE remained circumspect. Distrustful of ideology in all its forms, the Emirati leadership viewed their country as a global entrepôt that had earned the right to flourish outside of political blocs. They saw no contradiction between being a close friend of the United States and entering into a “comprehensive strategic partnership” with China in 2018. When Russian capital (and capitalists) sought a place to land after Ukraine-related sanctions slammed Russia in 2022, Emiratis welcomed both. Emirati officials touted their success in negotiating the exchange of hundreds of Russian and Ukrainian prisoners of war. They simultaneously deepened economic ties with both Ukraine and Russia. The UAE, they argued, was a more valuable friend when it maintained relationships with all. They would not choose—in part, because they judged they did not have to.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Global South, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Middle East and United Arab Emirates

2595. India’s Future Strategic Choices: Complications of Mass

Author:: Richard M. Rossow
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Leading up to the 2023 G20 summit in New Delhi, the Indian government put up billboards of Prime Minister Narendra Modi across the city. By one count, there were almost 1,000 signs and banners in the 12-kilometer stretch between the airport and U.S. President Joe Biden’s hotel highlighting India’s accomplishments, aspirations, and vision under Modi’s leadership.1 When asked about the billboards, India’s G20 coordinator responded, “We haven’t done advertising. We’re doing branding.”2 But this branding exercise was not merely intended to highlight India’s leadership role in a major international summit; it also sought to assert India’s leadership among the G20 countries that are less wealthy but large and fast growing. Quite purposively, India gathered more than 100 countries for the Voice of the Global South Summit the week before the G20 summit, where Modi declared the importance for India of “voicing the concerns of the Global South on the agenda of a significant platform like G-20.”3 As the concept of a coalition of Global South countries has emerged in recent years, India’s efforts to bolster its own brand as the vanguard of the Global South have accelerated. But India’s response to a new international order reflects an old strategy. In March 1947, on the eve of Indian independence, India hosted the first Asian Relations Conference, bringing together a diverse range of countries, including China, Indonesia, Egypt and the Arab League, Australia, and many of the Soviet republics. India hosted the conference during a period of geopolitical transformation, as countries around the world grappled with the aftermath of World War II and an emerging process of decolonization. Jawaharlal Nehru, then vice president of the Viceroy’s Executive Council, described the moment of the conference as an “age of transition.” He argued, “One of the notable consequences of the European domination of Asia has been the isolation of the countries of Asia from one another,” but “as that domination goes, the walls that surrounded us fall down and we look at each other again and meet as old friends long parted.”4
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China, South Asia, and India

2596. The Weight of History and Alliances in South Africa’s Geopolitical Turbulence

Author:: Mvemba Phezo Dizolele, Cameron Hudson, Khasai Makhulo, and Catherine Nzuki
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: On his first visit to the United States in June 1990 following his release from Robben Island prison, Nelson Mandela spoke at a townhall meeting at the City College of New York.1 During the event, Jewish community leaders confronted Mandela twice over the closeness of the African National Congress (ANC) and the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO). According to these leaders, Mandela had met with Yasser Arafat, whom he had praised three times over six months after his release from prison. Additionally, they claimed Mandela had told Muammar Gaddafi that he shared his views and applauded Gaddafi on his record on human rights and his drive for freedom and peace around the world. Mandela had also praised Fidel Castro as a leader of human rights. The Jewish community leaders asked that Mandela denounce and distance himself from these leaders. Mandela pushed back. “One of the mistakes, which some political analysts make,” he said, “is to think that their enemies should be our enemies. That, we can and will never do.” He went on to explain that the ANC had its own struggles and was grateful to the world for supporting it. Nevertheless, it was an independent organization with its own policy. The ANC’s attitude toward any country was determined by the attitude of that country toward their struggle. “Yasser Arafat, Colonel Gaddafi and Fidel Castro support our struggle to the hilt,” Mandela continued. “There is no reason whatsoever why we should have any hesitation about hailing their commitment to human rights as they are demanding in South Africa.” He went on to say that the ANC identified with the PLO because, like the ANC, they were fighting for the right to self-determination. “The ANC, however,” he further explained, “has never doubted the right of Israel to exist legally.”2
Topic:: Geopolitics, Economy, Alliance, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

2597. Striving for Seriousness: Brazil’s Inclusion and Exclusion from the World Order

Author:: Ryan C. Berg, Henry Ziemer, and Luke Maloney
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Unlike other significant actors in the Global South, the genesis of Brazil’s grievances is not principally the country’s colonial past, but rather its presence at the founding of the rules-based international order. In other words, Brazil is motivated less by mistreatment than by a sense of not being given its due. In 1942, Brazil officially entered World War II on the side of the Allied powers, serving as the only independent country in South America to join the war effort. Perhaps most notably, Brazil deployed a significant expeditionary force to the Italian campaign: a force which numbered around 25,000 soldiers directly under U.S. command.1 However, Brazil’s expeditionary force deployed on the Italian front in September 1944 and left in May 1945—arriving too late and heading home too early. As a result, Brazil did not secure a significant role for itself in the formation of the postwar international order. This ran counter to Brazilian expectations—and, it should be noted, to American promises. At a meeting in February 1943 between Franklin D. Roosevelt and President Getúlio Vargas in Natal, the U.S. president told his Brazilian counterpart that he wanted him at his side during the postwar settlements to reorganize the world.2 Instead, Brazil did not play a large role in the postwar peace conference or in the founding of the Bretton Woods institutions. The spoils that were to accrue to Brazil from fighting on the right side failed to materialize.
Topic:: Economics, Strategic Competition, International Order, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

2598. Strategic Ambiguity: Erdoğan’s Turkey in a Multipolar World

Author:: Jeffrey Mankoff and Max Bergmann
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Finland and Sweden made the historic decision to seek membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). While Washington greeted this decision as an opportunity to strengthen the alliance and reinforce Russia’s strategic miscalculation in starting the war, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan saw Finland’s and Sweden’s membership aspirations as an opportunity to seek concessions over arms sales, Turkey’s pursuit of membership in the European Union, and Stockholm’s perceived sympathy for Kurdish militants. After signing off on Finland’s membership in March 2023, Turkey only approved Swedish membership in January 2024 after Sweden approved new counterterrorism legislation—and after the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden agreed to sell Turkey modernized F-16 fighter jets. The saga over Finland and Sweden joining NATO demonstrates how Turkey straddles multiple worlds. It is at once part of the West—a NATO member and an EU candidate country—and part of the Middle East, an integral player across the region stretching from Libya to Afghanistan. It is also a member of the Global South that practices familiar hedging strategies toward the West, engages constructively with Russia and China, and does not hesitate to pursue foreign policy goals counter to the interests of its most important treaty ally, the United States.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Strategic Competition, Multipolarity, and Strategic Ambiguity
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

2599. Rebuilding U.S. Zinc Capacity in an Era of Global Competition

Author:: Gracelin Baskaran and Meredith Schwartz
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Zinc ranks as the fourth-most widely used metal worldwide. In addition to its primary application in steel galvanization, refining zinc also produces gallium and germanium—key inputs for advanced semiconductors and defense technologies. However, amid falling ore grades and limited exploration, the United States remains heavily dependent on zinc imports. Once a global hub for zinc processing, the United States now lacks sufficient refining capacity, importing over 70 percent of its refined zinc. There is an opportunity to rebuild domestic, vertically integrated zinc supply chains and reduce reliance on China, but this will demand deliberate action. Bolstering U.S. resilience will require scaling up domestic mining and refining, strategically deploying tariffs, encouraging private investment, promoting price stability, and deepening partnerships with allied nations.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Trade, Strategic Competition, Industry, Economic Security, Energy, Critical Minerals, and Zinc
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

2600. Syria’s Promise and Challenges One Year After Assad’s Fall

Author:: Mona Yacoubian and Will Todman
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: One year after the collapse of the Assad regime, the fate of Syria’s transition lies between the promise spurred by the Syrian people’s resilience and the enormous challenges posed by years of devastating conflict and decades of authoritarianism. The window for a successful transition is not open-ended. To succeed, the transition government must prioritize efforts to mitigate sectarian tensions, expand governance authority beyond interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s tight-knit circle, and double down on building domestic credibility. External stakeholders—especially the Gulf—have a critical role to play by insisting that aid and investment efforts are transparent, technically sound, and well-coordinated.
Topic:: Sectarianism, Authoritarianism, Syrian War, Bashar al-Assad, and Post-Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS