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2451. Towards a Trade War in 2025: Real Threats for the World Economy, False Promises for the US

Author:
Antoine Bouët, Leysa Maty Sall, and Yu Zheng
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
Using the MIRAGE-Power model, we simulate a trade war initiated in 2025 by the new US administration. The central scenario consists in a 60 percentage point tariff increase on all US imports from China, a 10 percentage point tariff increase on all products from other partners, except Canada and Mexico, and reciprocal tariff retaliation. World GDP and world trade decrease respectively by 0.5% and 3.4% in volume, with significant losses for the US and China, and gains for Canada and Mexico. A substantial reallocation of bilateral goods trade flows is taking place at global level. Additional scenarios show that: details of the tariff reform matter; the discriminatory tariff treatment of China benefits other trading partners; trade retaliation increases US economic losses; if Non-Tariff Measures are included in this trade war, the consequences are worse; if Canada and Mexico are included in the trade war, both experience significant losses in terms of GDP and trade. Last, we show that the US will not be able to replace the federal income tax with tariff revenues, even with a revenue-maximizing tariff.
Topic:
GDP, Economy, Tariffs, Trade Wars, Trade, and Retaliation
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2452. Heterogeneous Trade Elasticity and Managerial Skills

Author:
Maria Bas, Lionel Fontagné, Irene Iodice, and Gianluca Orefice
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
This paper investigates the role played by firms' managerial skills in the heterogeneous reaction of exporters to common exogenous changes in their international competitiveness (here captured by changes in the real exchange rate). Relying on a simple theoretical framework, we show that firms with better managerial skills have higher profits, market power, and are able to adapt their markup more when faced with a competitiveness shock. We test this prediction relying on detailed firm-product-destination level export data from France for the period 1995-2007 matched with specific information on the firms' share of managers. Our findings show that managerial intensive firms have larger exporter price elasticity to real exchange rate variations. The effect is not trivial: in the wake of a depreciation, exporters whose management intensity is one standard deviation higher than the average, increase their prices by 51% to 73% more than the average exporter. This finding is robust to controlling for the alternative explanations suggested by the previous literature to explain the heterogeneous pass-through of firms.
Topic:
Markets, Economy, Exports, Trade, and Depreciation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2453. Carbon Bias of Tariffs: Are Fossil fuels the Culprits?

Author:
Cecilia Bellora, Lionel Fontagné, Christophe Gouel, and Yousef Salib
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
This paper revisits the existence of a carbon bias in trade policies, where emissions-intensive sectors receive lower trade protection than cleaner sectors. Using a stylized general equilibrium model that accounts for greenhouse gas emissions, we confirm the presence of a carbon bias but find it to be significantly smaller than previously estimated. Our analysis reveals that this bias is primarily driven by low tariffs on fossil fuels, particularly crude oil. Incorporating the finite nature of fossil fuel resources into the model reduces the responsiveness of fossil fuel production to tariff changes, effectively neutralizing the carbon bias. Furthermore, when accounting for domestic consumption taxes on fossil fuels in non-producing countries –which act as de facto tariffs– the bias shifts toward a pro-environmental stance. These findings underscore the importance of integrating energy markets' specificities and domestic distortions into trade models to better account for the impact of trade policies on the environment.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Tariffs, Fossil Fuels, and Greenhouse Gas
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2454. Multinationals Here and There: Affiliates' Response to Global Crises

Author:
Constance Marette, Camilo Umana Dajud, and Vincent Vicard
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
This paper investigates how multinational enterprises (MNEs) adapted their global operations in the post COVID-19 period. Using the pandemic as a natural experiment, we analyze how MNEs adjusted employment across their foreign and domestic affiliates in response to economic disruptions and shifting perceptions. Leveraging a crosscountry, firm-level dataset, we employ a difference-in-differences approach among treated groups to assess the causal differential response of MNEs relative to domestic firms. MNEs outperformed domestic firms following the pandemic, driven primarily by the stronger performance of their domestic affiliates. We also find evidence of home bias in adjustments within MNEs: employment growth was significantly higher in domestic affiliates than in foreign ones. These patterns intensified through 2022, suggesting persistent shifts in MNE strategies.
Topic:
Globalization, Economy, Multinational Corporations, COVID-19, and Reshoring
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2455. Does Immigration Affect Native Wages? A Meta-Analysis

Author:
Clément Nedoncelle, Léa Marchal, Amandine Aubry, and Jérôme Héricourt
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
The impact of immigration on native workers’ wages has been a long-standing debate in labour and international economics. This meta-analysis synthesises findings from 88 studies published between 1985 and 2023, providing a comprehensive assessment of reduced-form estimates of the wage effect of immigration. Our results align with the existing literature, showing that the average wage effect is centred around zero, with substantial heterogeneity across studies. We highlight the critical role of contexts and methodological choices in shaping wage estimates. In particular, we find that shift-share instrumental variables correct for an upward bias of the OLS. Our findings emphasise the need for replication studies and greater transparency in methodological choices.
Topic:
Immigration, Labor Market, and Wages
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2456. The Variance of Gravity

Author:
Camilo Umana Dajud
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
This paper documents a fundamental problem in applied gravity estimation: the variance of gravity estimates becomes prohibitively large when policy regressors are parse. I define sparse regressors as dummy variables that equal one in fewer than 100 to 500 observations depending on the setting; a common characteristic of trade policies such as free trade agreements. Through Monte Carlo simulations calibrated to match previously established data generating processes in the literature, I demonstrate that the variance of coefficient estimates is approximately inversely proportional to the number of treated observations, making reliable statistical inference impossible when policy variables are infrequent. This variance problem is distinct from well-known issues related to high-dimensional fixed effects and affects both OLS and PPML estimators regardless of specification complexity. The severity of this variance problem depends on the magnitude of the true underlying coefficient: the variance problem is severe and practically prohibitive for moderate coefficients (such as those typically found for many trade policy effects), but becomes negligible for large effects. To address this issue, I propose Ridge regularization as a practical solution that reduces estimate variance while introducing minimal bias. The main contribution however is not advocating for Ridge regularization, but rather highlighting that variance is often the dominant source of uncertainty in gravity estimation when dealing with sparse policy variables, underscoring fundamental limitations of gravity models for evaluating infrequent policies with moderate effect sizes. These findings have implications not only for the international trade literature but also for other fields that employ gravitytype specifications, including migration and macroeconomics.
Topic:
Economy, Trade Policy, Gravity Model, and Ridge Regression
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2457. Labor Market Power, Export Prices and Pass-through

Author:
Malik Curuk, Jérôme Héricourt, and Gonzague Vannoorenberghe
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
Estimating the effects of goods and labor market power on firm pricing behavior is difficult since firm-level output and employment are jointly determined. We exploit the variation in the sets of destination countries across exporting firms, which enables us to separately identify the effects of goods and labor market power on pass-through rates by reducing the comovement of firm size across specific sales markets and in its local labor market. We present a theoretical framework in which multi-destination exporters are oligopolists in their goods markets and oligopsonists in their local labor market. Combining firm-level trade data per product-destination with establishment-level balance sheet data and employment zone identifiers for the universe of French firms from 1995 to 2015, we construct theoretically sound proxies for labor and goods market power and jointly estimate their effects on export prices using exchange rate shocks as the source of identifying variation in firm demand. Consistent with the model's predictions, we provide robust evidence that firms with stronger labor market power have a lower pass-through of changes in their effective exchange rate into export prices conditional on their goods market power. The findings indicate a sizable degree of labor market power for French exporters.
Topic:
Labor Market, Exchange Rates, and Capital Goods
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2458. International Trade by Production Stage: What’s Real?

Author:
Pierre Cotterlaz, Guillaume Gaulier, Aude Sztulman, and Deniz Ünal
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
The intensity of global value chains can be proxied by the share of intermediate goods in world trade. This indicator is however affected by price effects, which were particularly strong during the recent inflation episode of the early 2020s. To neutralize these price effects, we compute price deflators by production stage, obtaining series of trade in volume. The deflated series reveal that the share of intermediate goods in world trade is relatively stable since the early 2000s. If anything, trade in parts and components, a key feature of global value chains, seems slightly more dynamic than other production stages. Our results further show that parts and components, as well as capital goods, experienced the fastest trend growth between 2000 and 2023, while primary goods lagged behind. Finally, trade volumes appear strongly procyclical overall, except for primary goods, which display no significant correlation with the global output gap.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Global Value Chains, and Production
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2459. The Instruments of Profit Shifting

Author:
Kevin Parra Ramirez and Vincent Vicard
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
While multinational enterprises (MNEs) shift hundreds of billions in profits to low-tax jurisdictions annually, how they do remains disputed. Using firm-level data for France in 2018, we provide the first joint quantification of the three main profit-shifting channels: transfer mispricing in goods trade, intangible assets and services traded with tax havens, and intra-firm debt. We find empirical evidence for all three instruments, but transfer mispricing dominates quantitatively (€10 billion, 0.4\% of GDP), followed by services (up to €6 billion) and debt (€2 billion). Although significant, these direct estimates account for half of total missing profits in France, as estimated indirectly from the location of MNE profits. We document two key blind spots likely to close this gap: cross-border digital payments by households and understudied debt instruments (e.g., securities).
Topic:
Foreign Direct Investment, Multinational Corporations, Tax Systems, Trade, and Profit Shifting
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2460. Deep Trade Agreements and Heterogeneous Firms’ Exports

Author:
Matteo Neri-Lainé, Gianluca Orefice, and Michele Ruta
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
This paper studies the effect of regional trade agreements on firms' exports using detailed information on the content of trade agreements and firm-level exports for 31 developing countries between 2000 and 2020. Moving from shallow to deep trade agreements - i.e. agreements that regulate border and behind-the-border policies - boosts firms' exports, on average, by 3.6 percent. In line with models of trade with heterogeneous firms, this effect is stronger for large firms and firms involved in global value chains and (weakly) negative for small firms, suggesting a competition effect of deep trade agreements with significant welfare consequences for signatory countries. An Instrumental Variable strategy and a battery of robustness tests confirm the causal interpretation of the results.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Developing World, Exports, Trade, and Firm Heterogeneity
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2461. Immigration, Identity Choices, and Cultural Diversity

Author:
Yasmine Elkhateeb, Riccardo Turati, and Jerome Valette
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
Does immigration challenge the identities, values, and cultural diversity of receiving societies? This paper addresses this question by analyzing the impact of immigration on cultural diversity in Europe between 2004 and 2018. It combines regional cultural diversity indices derived from the European Social Survey with immigration shares from the European Labor Force Survey. The results indicate that immigration increases the salience of birthplace identity along cultural lines, fostering a shift toward nativist identities among the native population. These identity shifts, in turn, trigger a process of cultural homogenization among natives. This effect is stronger in regions receiving culturally distant immigrants. It reflects a process of convergence toward the values of highly skilled liberal natives and divergence from those of low-skilled conservative immigrants.
Topic:
Immigration, Diversity, and Social Identity
Political Geography:
Europe

2462. Sectoral Linkages and the Impact of Immigration on Export Performance

Author:
Amandine Aubry and Anthony Edo
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
This paper studies how immigrants in intermediate sectors affect downstream export performance. We develop a theoretical model in which a sector’s exports depend not only on its own immigrant workforce, but also on immigrant labor in input-supplying sectors. Using a new dataset on U.S. input–output from 2003-2017, we show that increases in immigrant employment in these sectors raise exports in connected downstream industries. This effect operates partly through improved production efficiency that lowers upstream input costs. By linking labor migration to production networks, we identify a new channel through which immigration shapes comparative advantage in international trade.
Topic:
Immigration, Exports, Trade, Sectoral Linkages, and Intermediate Sectors
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2463. Do Anti-immigration Attitudes Discourage Immigration? Evidence from a New Instrument

Author:
Etienne Bacher, Michel Beine, and Hillel Rapoport
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
We investigate the effect of anti-immigration attitudes on immigration plans to Europe. We propose a new instrument for attitudes toward immigration, namely, the number of country nationals killed in terrorist attacks taking place outside of Europe. Our first-stage results confirm that such terrorist attacks increase negative attitudes to immigration in the origin country of the victims. Our second-stage results then show that this higher hostility toward migrants decreases the attractiveness of the country for prospective immigrants.
Topic:
Terrorism, Immigration, and Xenophobia
Political Geography:
Europe

2464. Japan as a New Strategic Partner in the Three Seas Initiative: Opportunities and Challenges Ahead

Author:
Sayuri Romei
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
In April 2024, Japan joined the Three Seas Initiative (3SI) as a new strategic partner alongside the United States and the European Union. The 3SI was established in 2015 with the objective of strengthening connectivity and reducing the disparities in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the Baltic states. The initiative promotes the development of infrastructure in the energy, transport, and digital sectors in the region surrounded by the Baltic Sea, the Black Sea, and the Adriatic Sea. The war in Ukraine has highlighted the relevance of this initiative and has underscored the frail infrastructure in the region and CEE’s economic dependence on Russia. As it becomes increasingly clear that the security and stability of the Euro-Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific regions are inseparable, Japan is compelled to serve as an active partner in the 3SI as its role is also closely connected to the quality of assistance and support to Ukraine. As Japan embarks on this new partnership with CEE and Baltic countries, however, moving beyond the rhetoric about the importance of this initiative and taking concrete action is a challenge that all the countries involved will have to grapple with. Japan’s dialogue with CEE, and in particular with the Visegrad-4 (V4) group, i.e., Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia, officially started in the early 2000s. For the past twenty years, the relationship has mostly been smooth and without major problems. However, Japan’s engagement with those countries has lacked dynamism, as Japanese foreign policy has mainly been focused on the United States and China. Japan’s investments in CEE have been limited and cautious, and visits from high-ranking Japanese officials have been sporadic. In fact, the visits to Japan by the heads of the states of the V4 and CEE countries have always outnumbered those by their Japanese counterparts. Twenty years later, as CEE countries are realizing that the economic benefit from China is not as great as they had expected, Japan is in a good position to rekindle this relationship. In a January 2022 interview with Nikkei, Akio Miyajima, Ambassador of Japan to Poland, argued that it is crucial for Japan to strengthen relations with these countries. At the time of the interview, Russia had not yet invaded Ukraine, and the Ambassador lamented that Japan remained disinterested in the Ukraine issue. Since the invasion a month later, however, Japan has not only taken a clear stance in condemning Russia’s aggression, it has also taken a leadership role in investing in the reconstruction of Ukraine. One of the main concerns about the 3SI is that it currently lacks cohesiveness, as the twelve participating nations are too divided to agree on major joint investments. Another issue is that the initiative mainly takes place on the political level, and cooperation on other levels and dimensions are presently non-existent. How can Japan, in coordination with the United States and Europe, contribute to creating a more systematic approach to non-political partnerships and effective financial support for the participating nations of the 3SI? The topic is still under-researched and as Japan’s strategic partnership was formalized just last year, now is an ideal time for experts from Japan, the United States, and the EU to identify opportunities and common challenges, and discuss ways to jointly implement a roadmap as strategic partners in the 3SI framework. As 2025 marks the tenth anniversary of the establishment of the 3SI, it is critical for Japan and the other strategic partners to start contributing concretely to the initiative and to deepen their engagement with the participating nations. The tenth summit of the 3SI was held in Warsaw on April 28-29, 2025, and GMF Indo-Pacific partnered with the Embassy of Japan in Washington, DC, to publish this volume, which gathers the findings and perspectives of five authors from Japan, Europe, and the United States. Prof. Beata Bochorodycz of Adam Mickiewicz University and Dr. Bart Gaens of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs offer a European perspective on Japan’s potential role in the 3SI. Bochorodycz argues that Japan’s engagement will contribute greatly to regional infrastructure development while counterbalancing Russian and Chinese influences in the region. Gaens asserts that Japan’s interest in 3SI is multifold and covers several different areas: business and economics, development and connectivity, and geopolitics. However, he argues that there are also several challenges that impede Tokyo’s stronger involvement, and offers recommendations on its future engagement with the CEE countries. Anthony Kim of the Heritage Foundation and Mirna Galic, formerly with the United States Institute of Peace, contribute to this volume from American perspectives. Kim emphasizes the importance of the 3SI as a platform for attracting private sector investors and encourages Japan to go beyond its political partnership, while Galic reflects on how the 3SI may benefit Japan’s interests and analyzes concrete ways in which Tokyo can support the initiative. Finally, Ambassador Akio Miyajima, who served as Japanese Ambassador to Poland from 2020-2024, leans on his direct experience to recount the strategic evolution of Japan’s engagement with the CEE countries. He examines the Japanese government’s perspective from its first concerns about the expansion of Chinese influence in Europe to the major strategic recalibration that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Ambassador Miyajima concludes by analyzing the current global uncertainty stemming from the second Trump administration and offers recommendations on ways to strengthen Japan’s position as a strategic partner to the 3SI.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Defense Cooperation, Strategic Partnerships, and Three Seas Initiative
Political Geography:
Russia, Japan, Europe, Ukraine, and Asia

2465. EU–Türkiye Defense Cooperation: Why Now—and How Far?

Author:
Kadri Tastan, Martin Quencez, Georgina Wright, and Galip Dalay
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
For decades, Europe’s security framework has rested on NATO and, above all, US leadership. That framework is now under pressure. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has upended assumptions about lasting peace on the continent, while Donald Trump’s return to the White House has reignited European concerns about the reliability of American security commitments. In an urgent response to these developments, defense and security top the EU agenda. Member states are significantly increasing military spending, and Brussels has launched the €800 billion Re-Arm Europe initiative, an ambitious effort to strengthen Europe’s defense capacity and reduce dependence on external powers. Leaders are also working to build new coalitions inside NATO through the emerging “European pillar” and outside the alliance via bilateral and multilateral frameworks such as the Franco-British initiative to provide Ukraine with security guarantees. A central question emerges as EU moves to increase its strategic autonomy: Who fits within this new security architecture? While Norway and the United Kingdom are generally seen as natural partners, Türkiye’s role remains more ambiguous. This raises a key unresolved issue about the country’s position in Europe’s evolving security architecture. Türkiye is not just another partner. As a NATO member state, it occupies a strategic crossroads linking Europe, the Middle East, and the Black Sea. It has played an active role in supporting Ukraine militarily and has developed a sizable, increasingly sophisticated defense industry. But despite these strengths, Türkiye’s relations with the EU remain complex and often tense. Political disagreements, normative differences, the unresolved Cyprus conflict, and enduring Greek-Turkish rivalries continue to restrict formal cooperation. Moreover, the Türkiye-EU relationship is undergoing a deep structural shift. In the past, ties were largely shaped by shared responses to external threats and hopes of closer integration. Links today are increasingly defined by the dynamics of a multipolar global order, the declining influence of the geopolitical West, and EU’s efforts to redefine its identity and role, internally and externally. Türkiye and EU are repositioning themselves in global politics, and this realignment will shape the future of their interactions. This report does not merely describe the state of Türkiye-EU defense ties. It analyzes the impact of historical legacies, great-power competition, and shifting regional dynamics on reshaping the foundation of the relationship between the two. It probes core strategic questions: What role will Türkiye play in Europe’s emerging security framework? What are the long-term costs and benefits of deeper defense cooperation? And how can this cooperation be embedded within a normative framework acceptable to both sides?
Topic:
Security, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

2466. Değişen Çocuk İmgesi ve Medya İlişkisi: İnternet ve Çevrimiçi Çocuk

Author:
Gonca Kar and Ayşe Aslı Sezgin Büyükalaca
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:
Altinbas University
Abstract:
Zamanın toplum düzeni üzerinde yarattığı değişim, insanın da bu değişime bağlı olarak imgesel olarak farklı görünümlerini ortaya çıkartmaktadır. “Çocuk” ise bu değişim içinde anlamı, konumu ve imgesi açısından farklı tarihsel süreçlerde farklı görünümleriyle ön plandadır. Çocuk, aile içindeki çocuk kavramından toplumsal sistemdeki çocuk kavramına kadar farklı bağlamlarda, farklı açılardan incelenmektedir. Bu çalışmada ise David Elkind’in (1999) tarihsel olarak baskın olan çocukluk imgeleri konusundaki, üç modern çocuk imgesi olarak belirttiği, şehvetli çocuk, esnek çocuk, yetenekli bebek (Elkind’ın “çocuk” kavramı yerine “bebek” kavramını kullandığı görülmüştür) kavramsallaştırması ve sınıflandırması düşüncesinden yola çıkılmıştır. Elkind, gelecekte “Toplumsal bilge olarak, kendi kendine yeterli çocuk imgesinin” ortaya çıkacağını savunmaktadır. Elkind’ın tarihsel süreçte çocuk imgesini ele alışı ayrıca onun eleştirel yaklaşımını da ortaya koyar. Çocuk kavramının toplumsal ve kültürel yapıların bir yansıması olarak ele alınmasını eleştiren Elkind, toplumun çocuklara yönelik yaklaşımı hakkında güçlü bir eleştiriye sahiptir. Bu çalışma, söz konusu tarihsel çocukluk imgelerinin medya ile ilişkisini değerlendirmiş, gelecekteki çocuk tasavvurunu ise “çevrimiçi çocuk” kavramı üzerinden incelemiştir. Çalışmanın yönteminde, Elkind’in sınıflandırmasına uygun olarak kronolojik sıra ile medya içerikleri, yine her bir dönemin özelliklerini yansıtan kitle iletişim araçları aracılığıyla belirlenmiştir. Çocukluk imgeleri, bu içerikler örneğinde, niteliksel tarihsel tasarımı da dikkate alarak, analiz edilmiştir. Çevrimiçi çocuk olarak tanımlanan bugünün çocuk imgesi ise seçilen yeni medya içeriklerine yönelik değerlendirmelerle yapılmıştır. Kendi kendine yeten çocuk imgesinin tespitinde, seçilen medya içerikleri vasıtasıyla bu yeni çocukluk imgesinin özellikleri tespit edilmek istenmiştir. Çalışmanın sonucunda, değişen çocuk imgesinin medya ile ilişkisi bağlamında yapılan değerlendirmede, ne yazık ki bugün ekonomik etkilerin çocuk kavramı üzerinde de önemli bir rol oynadığı gözlenmiştir. Çocuk, doğal yapısının dışında çoğu zaman ekonomik yaşamın önemli bir imgesi haline gelmiştir.
Topic:
Children, Media, Internet, and Media Literacy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2467. Turizm Sektöründeki Yenilikçi Faaliyetlerin Finansal Performans Üzerindeki Etkisi: BİST Uygulaması

Author:
Elif Yücel and Yasemin Ertan
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:
Altinbas University
Abstract:
Turizm sektörü, sürekli değişen koşullar ve artan rekabet nedeniyle yenilikçi çözümler benimsemeyi zorunlu kılan dinamik bir yapıya sahiptir. Bu amaçla turizm işletmeleri farklı inovasyon stratejileri geliştirerek pazardaki konumlarını güçlendirmekte ve özellikle ekonomik sürdürülebilirliklerini sağlamaktadırlar. İnovatif çözümler başlangıçta birer maliyet unsuru olarak görülseler de işletmelerin müşteri sayılarının artmasını sağlayarak finansal performanslarını etkilemektedirler. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı da Türkiye’de turizm işletmelerinde gerçekleştirilen inovasyonların işletmelerin finansal performansı üzerindeki etkisini ölçmektir. Bu doğrultuda çalışmada öncelikle 2016-2023 yılları arasında BIST'te işlem gören 11 turizm işletmesinin faaliyet raporları incelenmiş olup işletmelerin inovasyon faaliyetleri türlerine göre sınıflandırılarak puanlandırılmıştır. Bu sınıflandırma sonrasında inovasyon faaliyetlerinin işletmelerin finansal performansı üzerindeki etkilerini ölçmek amacıyla panel veri analizi uygulanmıştır. Modelde, literatürde ve uygulamada en yaygın kullanılan finansal performans göstergeleri olan ROA ve ROE göstergelerinden yararlanılmıştır. Bulgular, süreç inovasyonunun işletmelerin finansal performansı üzerinde anlamlı bir etki yarattığını, ürün, organizasyonel ve pazarlama inovasyonlarının ise istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkisinin bulunmadığını ortaya koymaktadır. Süreç inovasyonunun ROA ve ROE'yi pozitif yönde etkilediği, özellikle COVID-19 pandemisi sonrası dönemde turizm işletmelerinin dijitalleşmeye ve süreç yeniliklerine yöneldiği gözlemlenmiştir. Ayrıca, işletmelerin kaldıraç oranındaki artışın finansal performans üzerinde olumsuz bir etkiye sahip olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bu sonuçlar, turizm sektöründe sürdürülebilir büyüme ve rekabet avantajı elde etmek için süreç inovasyonlarının önemini vurgularken, diğer inovasyon türlerinin finansal performans üzerindeki etkisinin sınırlı kaldığını göstermektedir.
Topic:
Tourism, Economy, Innovation, and Financial Performance
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2468. 2000’ler Türkiye’sinde Hukuk, İktidar ve Toplumsal Hareketler: Bir Eylem ve Olağanüstü Hal Mekanı Olarak Adliyeler

Author:
Gülçin Yüksel
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:
Altinbas University
Abstract:
Bu çalışmada, hukuk, iktidar ve toplumsal hareketler arasındaki ilişkiler incelenmektedir. Bu bağlamda adliye önü bir eylem ve protesto alanı olarak analiz edilmektedir. Hukuk ya da yargı kurumunu eleştiren ve bu kurumlara güvenmediklerini dile getiren adliye önü eylemcilerinin aynı kurumlardan adalet talep etmekten neden vazgeçmedikleri sorusu araştırılmaktadır. Adliye önlerinde eylem düzenlendiği gözlenen kadın cinayeti, iş cinayeti ve siyasi davalar için toplanan bu eylemcilerin Bourdieu’cü anlamda “yargısal alanın” kendilerine özgü sermayeleri olan yeni “oyuncuları” oldukları gözlemlenmiştir. Eylemciler aynı zamanda, yargısal alanın dönüşümünde önemli bir rol oynama ve hukuku daha toplumsal kılma potansiyeli taşımaktadırlar. Protestolara sahne olan adliyeler Agamben’in “kamp” kavramı çerçevesinde yasanın askıya alındığı bir olağanüstü hal mekanı olarak analiz edilmektedir. Agamben’in Antik Roma Hukuku’ndan ödünç aldığı “Homo Sacer”, kamp olarak kavramsallaştırılan mekanın “kurban edilemeyen fakat öldürülmesi ceza gerektirmeyen” sakinlerini tanımlamaktadır. Adliye önü eylemcileri ve protestolara konu olan davaların özneleri de bu çerçevede “Homo Sacer” olarak analiz edilmektedir. Çalışma kapsamında nitel araştırma yöntemleri kullanılmış, yarı yapılandırılmış derinlemesine görüşmeler ve katılımcı gözlemler gerçekleştirilmiştir. Araştırmada, eylemcilerin yasalarının uygulanmasının önemine vurgu yaptığı, yasanın uygulanmasındaki çeşitli aşamalara dahil olarak yargısal alanın aktör, özne ve oyuncularına dönüştüğü, davaların prosedürü ifade eden bir “kağıt” işleminden ya da “tiyatro”da ibaret kalmaması için davaların toplumsal ve siyasal yönlerinin altını çizmeye çalıştıkları gözlemlenmiştir.
Topic:
Sociology, Social Movement, Protests, Judiciary, and State of Exception
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

2469. Dünyada ve Türkiye'de Zaman Kapsülleri'nin Gelişimi

Author:
Mutlu Erbay
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:
Altinbas University
Abstract:
Bu çalışma, zaman kapsülleri konusunu gündeme getirerek bu konuya dikkat çekmeyi hedeflemektedir. Makalede, zaman kapsüllerinin Amerikalılar ve Türkler için sosyo-kültürel açıdan önemi vurgulanmakta ve önemli örnekler ele alınmaktadır. Zaman kapsülleri, Amerikan kültüründe hatırlama, hatırlatma ve anma yöntemi olarak kullanılmaktadır. Hatıraların anılması, düşünülmesine ve bu yolla anlamlandırılmasına sebep olur. Kültürler, kendi öz hedeflerine yönelik hatırlatma ve hatırlamalar yapabilmektedir. Bu hatırlamalar, geçmişi gelecek kuşaklara tanıtır ve aktarmada önemli bir rol oynar. Zaman kapsülleri, geleceğe gönderilen mektuplar aracılığıyla gelecek temennilerini yansıtmakta; kişilerin ve kurumların geleceği öngörme ve şekillendirme çabalarını simgelemektedir. Yeni açılan bir fabrika, yeni üretilen bir ürün, borsa için yazılan mektuplar, yeni hammadde üretimleri veya uzaya gönderilen yeni araçlar gibi çeşitli sebeplerle zaman kapsülleri hazırlanabilmektedir. Amerika Birleşik Devletleri'nde devlet kurumları, yüksek enstitüler ve fabrikalar tarafından zaman kapsülleri oluşturulmakta, kayda geçirilmekte ve belirlenen tarihte açılması planlanmaktadır. Zaman kapsülleri, Amerikan tarihinin önemli kültürel davranışlarından biri olarak kabul edilmektedir. Aşağıdaki makalede, önemli zaman kapsülleri ele alınarak incelenmiştir. Gelecekte açılmak üzere hazırlanan bu kapsüller, geleceğe bir not düşmekte ve bu yönüyle geleceği planlama ve öngörme amacı taşımaktadır. Türkiye’de de hazırlanmış zaman kapsülleri mevcuttur. Çalışma, bu örneklere de kısaca değinerek zaman kapsüllerinin Türk kültüründeki yeri ve önemini ortaya koymaktadır.
Topic:
Culture, Memory, Tradition, and Time Capsules
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

2470. Board Gender Diversity and Firm Value: Do Women on Boards Make a Difference?

Author:
Yasemin Altinyay, Muzaffer Aydemir, and Onur Tugman
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:
Altinbas University
Abstract:
Gender diversity at the board level plays a vital role in shaping strategic decisions and governance outcomes in global corporations. As one of the most visible and measurable dimensions of diversity, gender representation has attracted increasing academic and institutional interest in recent years. This study investigates the relationship between board-level gender diversity and financial performance among global firms, focusing specifically on the financial sector. The analysis draws on cross-sectional data from 326 international financial institutions included in the 2022 Forbes Global 2000 list. Employing both correlation and multiple regression analyses, the study explores how female board representation correlates with key financial indicators, such as Return on Equity (ROE), Return on Assets (ROA), and market value. The results suggest that greater female participation on boards is positively associated with higher ROE, while the effects on ROA and market value appear to be weaker. These findings offer empirical support for enhancing gender diversity in corporate governance frameworks.
Topic:
Women, Corporate Governance, Firms, Gender Diversity, and Market Value
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2471. Albania’s TikTok U-Turn: Trading Regulation for a Ban

Author:
Daniel Prroni and Megi Reçi
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM)
Abstract:
TikTok is being shut down in Albania, marking a significant shift in the country’s approach to regulating digital platforms. This move diverges from the European Union’s policy direction and contradicts the government’s previous commitment to adopting legal measures in line with EU guidelines. Banning social networks does not address the root issues and limits opportunities to educate users and hold platforms accountable. The European Union has emphasized that regulation is the most effective strategy to mitigate the harmful effects of social media and protect fundamental freedoms. The Digital Services Act (DSA) ensures platforms operate in the public interest, establishes clear content moderation rules, and safeguards freedom of speech, providing a more sustainable solution. Read IDM’s publication, which argues that institutions should stay committed to aligning with the DSA and avoid taking counterproductive actions.
Topic:
European Union, Regulation, Social Media, TikTok, and Digital Services
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Albania

2472. Deep Down in the Stack: China's Entrenchment in Serbia's Technology Landscape

Author:
Sharinee Jagtiani
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Serbia, a land-locked nation with a population of under seven million, has emerged as a key player in the PRC’s Digital Silk Road (DSR) initiative within the Western Balkans. Its strategic location, connecting Southeastern Europe to Central and Western Europe, coupled with its role as a regional hub for internet traffic, has positioned Serbia as a valuable springboard for the PRC to market its technologies to the EU. Since 2012, Serbia has been an EU accession candidate and has prioritized digital transformation in its international engagements, notably with the PRC. The country’s commitment to digital advancement is also evident through its participation in the European Commission’s Digital Agenda for the Western Balkans in 2018 and the Digital Europe Program in 2023. Building on previous research conducted at GMF, this report delves into the evolution of the PRC’s DSR in Serbia, employing a technology stack (tech stack) framework to analyze the PRC’s presence. This framework encompasses five layers: network infrastructure, data infrastructure, device, application, and governance. By mapping the involvement of PRC-based entities within each layer, the report offers a detailed overview of the PRC’s technological engagement in Serbia, complete with illustrative examples. The report finds that the PRC and its affiliated entities have emerged as key players in Serbia’s rapid digitalization and modernization of its technology ecosystem. Many PRC technology firms such as Huawei, Nuctech, NetDragon, and BGI (formerly Beijing Genomics Institute)—are present across Serbia’s tech stack. Huawei, in particular, has made notable inroads into Serbia’s foundational network infrastructure. This includes its partnership with Serbia’s largest internet service provider (ISP), the state-owned Telekom Srbija and its positioning as a key partner in the country’s 5G rollout anticipated in 2026. Huawei’s involvement also extends to Serbia’s national and municipal data infrastructure—as a commercial tenant in the national data center and as a financer in Kragujevac’s city data center. These roles, coupled with limited transparency regarding the data stored in state-run facilities, have raised alarm among journalists, activists, and civil society actors about data security and the potential for state-enabled digital surveillance. These concerns have deepened with the introduction of surveillance systems supplied by PRC vendors, particularly under Serbia’s smart and “safe city” initiatives. The PRC’s deepening technological engagement exists in the context of weak implementation of Serbia’s data protection regulation. Serbian political leaders have consistently praised the PRC’s role in supporting their country’s technological ambitions, reflecting a broader strategic partnership that now also includes military cooperation—evident in the procurement of PRC-manufactured military drones and related technology transfers. The PRC’s growing technological footprint also coincides with Serbia’s democratic backsliding, as evidenced by its declining democracy score and its reclassification by Freedom House in 2019 as a “transitional or hybrid regime,” down from a “semi-consolidated democracy”. Collectively, these developments, have created an enabling environment for the emergence of digital surveillance in Serbia.
Topic:
Science and Technology, European Union, Democracy, Digitalization, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
China, Eastern Europe, Asia, and Serbia

2473. Europe’s Moment of Truth: A Democracy Shield for Today and Tomorrow

Author:
Vassilis Ntousas and Etienne Soula
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Democracy in Europe is under growing pressure. Authoritarian regimes like Russia and the People’s Republic of China are conducting increasingly sophisticated foreign interference campaigns that blend information manipulation, cyberattacks, malign finance, economic coercion, and kinetic operations. Internally, illiberal actors are eroding the rule of law and civic freedoms as democratic norms deteriorate in the EU’s immediate neighborhood. The EU’s current response often remains fragmented and reactive, exposing it to external interference and internal backsliding. The European Democracy Shield, announced in 2024 and expected in 2025, presents a unique opportunity to consolidate democratic defense. If designed as more than a symbolic initiative, the Shield can equip the EU with a credible, coordinated, and enforceable framework to safeguard democratic integrity at home and project protection outward. The aim of this report is to support the development of an effective and resilient European Democracy Shield. To this end, Part 1 maps the current threat landscape, highlighting the main challenges to democratic systems across the EU. Part 2 identifies key institutional and policy gaps that limit the EU’s capacity to respond to these threats. Part 3 sets out ten actionable recommendations designed to ensure the Shield is not only politically resonant but also operationally impactful. These are: See the forest: Treat authoritarian interference as a longitudinal threat and forge an integrated, cross-domain response. Standardize language to strengthen strategy: Adopt clear and consistent terminology across institutions to support unified strategy and action. Enhance situational awareness: Build a real-time “Democracy Radar” combining EU-wide monitoring, foresight, and national-threat reporting. Maximize enforcement of existing tools: Fully implement and coordinate use of existing tools, most notably the Digital Services Act. Preserve information integrity: Address the financial and regulatory drivers of manipulation and reinforce safeguards around elections. Reinforce national democratic foundations: Link EU support to democratic reform and institutional capacity-building across member states. Develop national anti-foreign information manipulation and interference defenses: Ensure each member state has processes or institutions dedicated to the detection of, and response to, interference. Elevate the defender network: Recognize and protect the foundational role for civil society, media, and citizens in democracy protection. Invest in core support for democratic resilience: Move from short-term grants to strategic, long-term support for core democratic functions. Project protection outward: Support partner democracies with adaptable tools and deepen democratic cooperation globally. Taken together, these steps would transform the Shield into a strategic, whole-of-Union response to both external and internal challenges while positioning Europe as a global leader in demonstrating how democracy can be safeguarded by design, today and tomorrow.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Authoritarianism, European Union, Democracy, Foreign Interference, and Information Manipulation
Political Geography:
Europe

2474. How To Help Georgia Out of Its Growing Democracy Crisis

Author:
Irakli Sirbiladze
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Georgia is fighting for its political future. The ruling Georgian Dream party now governs through an expansive repertoire of repressive tools to stifle dissenting political voices. Pro-democracy actors are mounting a resilient resistance to autocratization, seeking to defend a vision of politics in which the country is governed democratically and strong independent institutions guarantee that politicians serve the public and are held to account when they do not. Georgian Dream’s incremental anti-democratic turn became more pronounced as the war in Ukraine and the EU accession process forced it make a choice. It chose an anti-West stance in response to the war and anti-democratic measures to derail EU accession. The result was unprecedented Western sanctions on political figures and the deterioration of ties with the West, especially since the fraudulent parliamentary elections in 2024. At the same time, the government has sought closer ties with China and Russia. Georgian Dream’s hope for business as usual with the West is proving futile, whether regarding the EU or the new administration in the United States. This leaves Georgia increasingly isolated and weakened on the international stage. Georgia’s foreseeable future seems likely to be one of protracted political uncertainty rather than clear-cut autocratic consolidation or democratic comeback. Neither the government nor its opponents have the capabilities to fully achieve their goals. Georgian Dream is constrained by growing societal dissatisfaction with its governance while pro-democracy actors are hampered by the disunity among opposition parties and the increasingly hostile environment for democracy at home and globally. In this context, its Western partners can and must take steps to help Georgia back toward a more democratic path, which would also aid their geopolitical objectives. These include using targeted economic and personal sanctions against figures in Georgian Dream to curtail its repressive apparatus, providing flexible support for Georgian civil society to help it maintain democratic resilience, engaging with public-opinion leaders and the private sector across the country to stress the opportunities that the EU membership offers and to counter anti-West disinformation, and undertaking close-door and public diplomacy efforts, backed up by the credible threat of consequences in case of no action on the part of the government.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democracy, Domestic Politics, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
Caucasus, Georgia, and Black Sea

2475. Russia and China in Central Asia’s Technology Stack

Author:
Dylan Welch
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Central Asia’s role as a geopolitical battleground among Russia, China, Europe, and the United States has grown in recent years as Western countries seek trade and digital connectivity routes that bypass Russian infrastructure. While Western discourse on a “Middle Corridor” through Central Asia has focused on railways, ports and pipelines, China’s Digital Silk Road is quietly reshaping the region’s digital landscape and deepening strategic dependencies on Beijing. At the same time, Central Asian governments are drawing primarily on PRC technologies and Russian regulatory models to strengthen their own digital authoritarian regimes, risking joint domination by the increasingly aligned governments in Beijing and Moscow. China’s increasing control over the region’s “technology stack” could have an outsized impact on the future of digital connectivity, cybersecurity, and geopolitical competition across Eurasia. Russia’s regulatory influence on the region’s governments could shape digital governance norms across Eurasia. For Central Asian actors and Western policymakers invested in preserving the region’s strategic autonomy, it is crucial to understand these vulnerabilities and offer viable alternatives in the information and communications technology (ICT) sector. Ensuring a resilient and diversified digital landscape in Central Asia is therefore not only a regional concern but a vital issue for global security. This report seeks to shed light on the influence of Russia and China on the ICT sectors of three Central Asian countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. It uses the “technology stack” method adapted from two previous reports by GMF’s Alliance for Securing Democracy (ASD) on the future internet and the digital information stack released in 2020 and 2022. The framework is used to examine one country’s presence in and penetration of another country’s technology and regulatory ecosystem. The analysis of the resulting dependencies provides an indicative, rather than exhaustive overview of Russia and China’s technological footprint in Central Asia, offering key examples and highlighting areas where policymakers can focus their attention with the goal to de-risk digital technologies and governance in Central Asia.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Democracy, Geopolitics, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Central Asia, Eurasia, and Asia

2476. The EU’s New Black Sea Security Strategy: Right Goals, Unclear Means

Author:
Bogdan Cozma and Laurențiu Pleșca
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
The Black Sea region has always been a strategic battlefield of ideologies and influence, not least during the Cold War. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, it experienced a period of relative tranquility as the geopolitical focus shifted toward other hotspots such as the Middle East and the South China Sea. In more recent times—notably after the 2008 Russia-Georgia war and Russia’s 2014 illegal annexation of Crimea and its war in eastern Ukraine—the region and its importance for the security architecture of Europe slowly re-emerged on the agenda of policymakers in the EU and the United States. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 then pushed it to the forefront of transatlantic security concerns. Today there is a clear consensus among the EU, NATO, and the United States that they need a fundamental rethink toward a strong, long-term strategy for the Black Sea. Having expressed its willingness to become more of a geopolitical actor, the EU has now reiterated its commitment to the region by adopting a strategy on Black Sea security, which was published on May 28. The strategy identifies five countries as key players in the region and calls for closer cooperation with them: member states Bulgaria and Romania, candidate countries Moldova and Ukraine, and Türkiye, a NATO member with a substantial military presence and strategic influence in the region. Unfortunately, however, the EU’s new strategy does not contain a concrete action plan, a clear implementation timeline, or, most importantly, a dedicated budget. Without these, the EU’s ability to translate its political intentions into concrete outcomes for the security of the Black Sea states will remain significantly limited. If its strategic approach remains largely declarative, this increases the risk of ceding influence to Russia in the immediate region and beyond it. A more concrete, robust, and coordinated EU security presence there is still urgently needed.
Topic:
Security, European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, Domestic Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Black Sea

2477. Disinformation in the City Brief #2: Thematic Areas and Impact

Author:
Jessica (Ika) Trijsburg, Paul Costello, William Ridge, Elise Park, and Daniel Pejic
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Disinformation impacts cities. In extraordinary times of rapid information-sharing, distrust, and disruption, cities are on the front line. Local authorities are the level of government most accessible to the people, and are tasked with leading communities through ever more complex societal and global challenges. Disinformation campaigns in public policy are mobilized to elicit a desired outcome, whether it be in healthcare, climate change, immigration, attitudes toward gender diversity, or another policy area. In this context, “campaigns” refer to organized efforts to spread false information deliberately created to harm, mislead, or evoke an emotional response in a target audience. Such an effort may be limited to a single element, such as a manufactured photo, or it may include a variety of mechanisms used over an extended period. Responding to a disinformation campaign must be considered in relation to the broader theme or subject it addresses. “Medical disinformation” concerns false or misleading information specifically related to, for example, medicine, vaccinations, or health care. Similarly, “climate disinformation” relates to false or misleading information about climate science, climate change policy, and sustainability planning. And “political disinformation” refers to false or misleading information intended to undermine the integrity of government, governance systems, and/or policies. Such overarching topics can be labeled a disinformation campaign’s “impact area”, the governance and public policy domain that a campaign is designed to influence. One disinformation campaign, however, often has multiple impact areas. Disinformation aimed at disrupting climate change action may also seek to undermine a political party, government, or policy agenda.
Topic:
Public Policy, Cities, Disinformation, and Information Manipulation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2478. Democratic by Design: Implementing and Innovating Democracy-Affirming Technologies

Author:
Caitlin Goldenberg, Adrienne Goldstein, Sharinee Jagtiani, and Lindsay Gorman
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
The emergence of critical new technologies, from quantum information tools to Artificial Intelligence (AI), has ushered in a new digital era. While these technologies promise greater efficiency and innovation to the benefit of society, if misused they can also help entrench repression and autocratic control. What is needed instead is a positive, rights-respecting vision of democratic innovation. GMF’s AI and Democracy programming, including its 2024 Elections Content Credentials Repository and 2024 AI and Democracy Hackathon, aimed to advance the development, use, and public understanding of democracy-affirming technologies (DATs)—that is, technologies that are intentionally designed to protect and promote democratic values. This report features insights from two pilot projects aimed at advancing the implementation of existing DATs and the innovation of new ones.
Topic:
Democracy, Innovation, Artificial Intelligence, Digital Technologies, and Quantum Computing
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2479. Incomplete Exit: Central and Eastern Europe’s Corporate Decoupling From Russia

Author:
Michal Wyrebkowski
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, companies from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) initially were trailblazers in voluntarily withdrawing from Russia, effectively self-sanctioning through voluntary overcompliance with sanctions by leaving, even though operating in the country is still legal. At the same time, CEE countries have enabled sanctions-evasion networks. The historical economic relationship between CEE countries and Russia created the conditions for this paradox. Decades of relying on Russian energy sources masked an asymmetric interdependence: Russia’s military-industrial complex relied heavily on CEE countries for the machine tools, industrial components, and dual-use technologies essential to weapons production. When EU sanctions targeted these critical supply chains, the geographic proximity and established trade relationships that motivated voluntary exit by some companies also enabled systematic sanctions circumvention by others. The EU’s Russia sanctions since 2014 have struggled to match the complexity of the economic networks involved. Early sanctions focused on financial restrictions and high-profile sectors but failed to address the technical vulnerabilities that enable large-scale evasion. Even as restrictions expanded to cover dual-use goods and Russia’s “shadow fleet”, fundamental gaps in classification systems and enforcement mechanisms persisted. The responses of CEE companies have varied across sectors and countries. While investor and consumer pressure drove rapid voluntary exits from Russia in consumer-facing industries, industrial manufacturers found numerous ways to keep supplying it through third-country intermediaries. The behavior of energy companies has reflected the strategic priorities of CEE governments, with some achieving complete diversification from Russia while others reinforced existing dependencies. The variety of corporate responses mirrored the uneven development of national sanctions-enforcement capabilities, ranging from understaffed sanctions departments to insufficiently robust regulatory frameworks; for example, regarding criminalization of violations. The persistence of sanctions evasion through CEE countries reflects systemic failures in the EU’s enforcement architecture. Technical classification systems designed for traditional trade cannot adequately distinguish between civilian and military applications of modern dual-use technologies. Customs officials lack access to the information systems necessary to verify complex ownership structures and end-use destinations. Legal frameworks optimized for territorial jurisdiction are inadequate for regulating globalized supply chains where goods, payments, and corporate structures span multiple jurisdictions. Banking institutions operating across Central and Eastern Europe have become critical actors, with a small number of financial institutions handling substantial portions of Russia’s foreign currency transactions. Their continued operations highlight the limits of EU territorial sanctions, which is confirmed by the extent to which US extraterritorial enforcement has become necessary to police sanctions violations in Europe. Addressing these challenges requires comprehensive reforms across multiple dimensions. Technical improvements must include supplementary classification systems that incorporate detailed specifications for dual-use goods, while institutional capacity-building demands substantial increases in staffing and expertise at the national and EU levels. Financial-sector monitoring needs real-time automated screening capabilities and dedicated compliance structures, while industrial-sector oversight requires specialized task forces with technical expertise in dual-use technologies.
Topic:
Economics, Trade, Russia-Ukraine War, and Decoupling
Political Geography:
Russia and Eastern Europe

2480. Skilled But Displaced: Belarusian and Ukrainian Migrants in the EU Labor Market

Author:
Lev Lvovskiy
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Belarus’s political crisis in 2020 and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 triggered unprecedented waves of involuntary migration from both countries to the EU. Over 300,000 Belarusians have fled, primarily to Poland and Lithuania. Over 17 million Ukrainians fled their country during the first months of the invasion, and more than 5 million still reside in the EU, notably in Germany and Poland. Unlike previous migration from the two countries, this latest wave involves large numbers of skilled professionals. This creates challenges and opportunities for EU labor markets. Successful integration of these migrants could mitigate Europe’s demographic decline, fill critical skill shortages, and strengthen economic and democratic ties between migrants’ home and host countries. Conversely, their poor integration risks underemployment, wasted potential, and disillusionment with the EU and its norms and values among migrants and in their home countries. A new survey of these recent Belarusian and Ukrainian migrants shows commonalities but also important differences among them. They tend to have high levels of education and work experience. Ninety percent of Belarusian respondents and 60% of Ukrainian ones hold a higher-education degree, and most had extensive professional backgrounds before migration. Yet nearly half of Belarusians and two-thirds of Ukrainians have had to change their profession entirely in their host country. Cross-border convertibility of human capital varies significantly among respondents, affecting their ability to continue in their profession. Those in the IT, healthcare, and certain technical professions enjoy high convertibility, while those in fields like education, finance, and consulting face steep barriers. The gender balance among Belarusians is almost even, while there are more women among the Ukrainians due to Ukraine’s mobilization law. Women experienced greater losses in professional standing, reflecting structural barriers and family obligations. These migrants also differ in terms of return intentions. Among Ukrainians, 38% said they intend to return and 19% that they do not, while among Belarusians the respective figures are 35% and 38%. For Ukrainians, the decision to return will hinge primarily on geopolitical factors: 70% said they would return if Russia’s government and foreign policy changed, and 46% if active warfare ended. Seventy percent of Belarusians said they would consider returning if political repression ended, and 82% if there were a change in the country’s leadership. Attitudes toward a possible return shape migrants’ career strategies: those hoping to return in the near future weigh temporary adaptation, while those who do not often commit more deeply to integrating into the host-country labor market. The EU faces a critical choice in how to manage this influx of involuntary migrants. For member states experiencing shrinking populations and labor shortages in healthcare, IT, education, and construction, Belarusian and Ukrainian migrants offer a valuable pool of human capital. Effective policies could align humanitarian needs with economic benefits. These include gender-responsive integration programs with childcare support, entrepreneurship initiatives with access to finance and fast-track business registration, public-private partnerships for skilled recruitment, and streamlined recognition of foreign qualifications. Through such policies, the EU and its member states can transform these instances of involuntary migration into an engine of growth, resilience, and democratic exchange, benefiting the migrants as well as their host and home countries.
Topic:
Civil Society, European Union, Labor Market, Migrant Workers, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Belarus

2481. How To Help Armenia Navigate Its Democracy-Security Nexus

Author:
Narek Sukiasyan
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
The 2018 Velvet Revolution was a breakthrough for Armenia’s democracy, but progress has since stalled. The June 2026 parliamentary elections will be a decisive test in a polarized environment dominated by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party and an opposition tied to former presidents Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan. This dominant dichotomy, fueled by both sides, frustrates the attempts of alternative forces to come to the fore. Support for Civil Contract is stable, but the majority of voters are undecided, disengaged, or disillusioned by the trauma of the 2020 war in Nagorno-Karabakh and the 2023 ethnic cleansing there as well as by the lack of credible political alternatives. Civil Contract’s political dominance over the last seven years has led to unilateral lawmaking and some controversial actions against opposition figures, media, civil society, and the judiciary. However, recent municipal elections saw the party fail to secure majorities in major cities. While the diplomatic breakthrough in the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan, marked by the White House deal in August, sets a path for stability in the near term, it is crucial to follow up and to push for a final agreement. Azerbaijan’s continued demands and rhetoric cast doubt as to the extent of its commitment to the process. Similarly, Türkiye still does not meet its commitment to end its blockade of Armenia. Meanwhile, Armenia’s drift away from Russia and pivot to the West has been characterized by its increased ambition to join the EU. It also seeks to diversify its security with the help of its Western partners, advancing with reforms and political alignment with Euro-Atlantic priorities. Until the next elections, Armenia is likely to continue deepening its ties with the West while maintaining cautious cooperation with Russia, while peace talks with Azerbaijan drag on, and relations with Türkiye remain complex. It is likely that Civil Contract will campaign on defending Armenia’s sovereignty and on Western alignment while the fragmented opposition struggles to broaden its support. The most probable scenario is another Civil Contract government with a reduced majority, which will continue efforts toward peace with Azerbaijan and balancing engagement with the West and Russia. Two other scenarios (in descending order of likelihood) are a government coalition of Civil Contract and smaller pro-West parties, which will push a more confrontational stance toward Russia, or an opposition-led government realigning the country with Moscow and further undermining democratization. The EU, its member states, and the United States should support Armenia by helping it strengthen its democratic institutions and its security in order to preserve the public’s confidence in democracy. The country needs a combination of financial, technical, and political assistance to facilitate democratization, to resist external pressures, and to maintain its sovereignty. This includes backing the consolidation of democratic institutions, promoting electoral integrity, encouraging a diversity of democratic actors, and empowering civil society, all against the background of addressing the country’s security challenges. By providing Armenia with the tools to defend its territorial integrity and to pursue democratic reforms, the West can help revive the optimism sparked by the Velvet Revolution and overturn a public disillusionment that could weaken Armenia’s democracy and its ties with Europe.
Topic:
European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
Caucasus, Eastern Europe, Armenia, and United States of America

2482. Decoupling EU Enlargement From Liberal Democracy: The Engagement of Hungary’s Government in Georgia and Serbia

Author:
Anastasia Mgaloblishvili
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 prompted the EU to revitalize its enlargement policy by granting candidate status to Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. After decades of “enlargement fatigue”, the EU sought to reassert itself as a normative actor in its neighborhood. Because accession depends on candidate countries’ compliance with liberal-democratic criteria, enlargement has significant potential to advance democratization. Not all member-state governments, however, see enlargement as a way to promote liberal democracy. Since coming to power in Hungary in 2010, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz party have positioned themselves as challengers of liberalism at home and abroad, with the openly stated goal of transforming the EU from within. Together with potentially helping in the future to protect themselves from sanctions, which became a realistic scenario after the EU froze some of Hungary’s funding in 2022, decoupling enlargement from liberal democracy also served their goal of strengthening illiberalism internationally. The revival of enlargement coincided with Hungary’s government temporarily holding important institutional levers to challenge the EU’s normative agenda—a Hungarian diplomat as enlargement commissioner and the presidency of the Council of the EU—in addition to its permanent veto power in the council. As well as to obstruct Ukraine’s accession, Orbán and Fidesz have used these and other tools to undermine the EU’s approach to two candidate countries with autocratizing governments: Georgia and Serbia. In Georgia’s case, Hungary’s government diluted EU pressure on the Georgian Dream government, which has accelerated the country’s democratic backsliding. It did so through high-level visits and supportive statements, blocking sanctions, and helping entrench illiberal values that violated the EU’s Copenhagen Criteria. Orbán and Fidesz built close ties with Georgian Dream. They helped it maintain a pro-EU veneer for the sake of its electorate as well as deflect the blame for Georgia’s lack of accession progress onto the EU and the West. In Serbia’s case, where the EU applied less pressure on President Aleksandar Vučić and his Serbian Progressive Party government for strategic reasons, most of Budapest’s efforts have aimed to accelerate the country’s accession. Before 2022, Orbán and Fidesz promoted this goal through, for example, deploying a high-level “EU integration adviser” to Belgrade and through the softening of critical reports in the European Commission. This intensified after 2022, with Hungary’s government using its council presidency to advance Serbia’s membership and accusing the EU of penalizing the country. This reinforced Vučić’s narrative portraying the EU as responsible for reforms and the accession process stalling. With enlargement back on the EU agenda, Hungary’s actions shed light on the challenges facing the EU’s strongest democracy-promotion tool. This aligns with the growing calls for limiting the veto power of member-state governments when they undermine the union’s liberal-democratic foundations, as well as for shifting key foreign policy and enlargement decisions from unanimity to qualified majority voting.
Topic:
European Union, Democracy, Regional Politics, and Enlargement
Political Geography:
Europe, Serbia, Hungary, and Georgia

2483. Poland’s Rule-of-Law Repair: Trapped in Institutional Paralysis?

Author:
Anna Wójcik
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Two years since taking office in Poland, the governing coalition led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk has made limited progress in repairing the rule of law following the backsliding under the previous government led by the Law and Justice (PiS) party. The change of government in December 2023 raised hopes of democratic repair but legislative reformsremain at an early stage. This reflects not only the depth of institutional damage done by PiSbut also political constraints. The Tusk government has been operating under the conditions of cohabitation with PiS-backed presidents, first with Andrzej Duda and since August with Karol Nawrocki. The constitutional framework grants significant powers to the president, including the authority to veto statutes and to refer them for constitutional review. Cohabitation has drastically curtailed the ability to pursue rule-of-law reforms, particularly in judicial governance. Moreover, the preparation of draft legislation in several key fields has proceeded more slowly than expected. In 2024, the parliament passed three acts aimed at restoring constitutional standards: two concerning the Constitutional Tribunal and one reforming the National Council of the Judiciary, but none has entered into force. Duda referred the three acts to the Constitutional Tribunal, which remains an illiberal enclave aligned with PiS, and in the course of this year ithas invalidated all three. Consequently, legislative change regarding the institutions central to judicial independence is effectively paralyzed. The government also pledged to separate the offices of minister of justice and prosecutor general, a reform long demanded by European monitoring bodies. Despite repeated commitments, this change has not yet been implemented. The most sensitive challenge for repairing the rule of law concerns judges appointed througha politicized procedure introduced under PiS. Addressing their status is necessary to restore judicial independence and to protect legal certainty. However, it involves difficult decisions affecting accountability, individual rights, and systemic stability. Although a legislative proposal is now ready, Nawrocki has indicated that he will veto any major judicial reform. He has also announced the creation of a new advisory body under the presidency to draft proposals for reforming the justice system, a move widely seen as an attempt to stymie the government’s initiatives. Overall, the effort to repair the rule of law in Poland is constrained by polarization, institutional stalemate, and a political context that is increasingly dominated by the approach of the parliamentary elections scheduled for 2027. While the government remains committed to reform, presidential obstruction and the continued role of the Constitutional Tribunal as a veto player limit progress. Poland therefore finds itself in a prolonged phase of limited rule-of-law repair.
Topic:
European Union, Democracy, Domestic Politics, Rule of Law, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

2484. EU Enlargement and Democracy

Author:
Emiliano Alessandri
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has put enlargement back at the top of the EU agenda. After a long hiatus—Croatia was the last country to join in 2013—the enlargement process is now being revived. Albania and North Macedonia finally opened accession negotiations in 2022, but only after a long wait. That same year, Bosnia and Herzegovina was granted candidate status, and Kosovo, Moldova, and Ukraine submitted applications for membership. The latter two have since started accession talks. Geopolitics is clearly the main driver behind the momentum and is one reason behind member states’ new support for enlargement, at least in principle. Only a short time ago, many national governments expressed reservations, particularly regarding the EU’s “absorption capacity”. The prevailing logic today, given the return of strategic rivalry and conflict, is that EU enlargement can help anchor unstable Western Balkan and Eastern European countries that could otherwise fall under Russian or Chinese influence. A December 18 European Council statement clearly noted that enlargement is “a geostrategic investment”. Prioritizing such considerations, however, means that traditional economic arguments take a back seat. The same trend increasingly applies to concerns about meaningful political and societal transformation in candidate states. But this is a mistake that needs to be addressed now to avoid more serious problems later.
Topic:
European Union, Democracy, Regional Politics, and Enlargement
Political Geography:
Europe

2485. Surveillance Capitalism in Fragile Democracies: Defending Journalism from Dual Domination

Author:
Emre Kizilkaya
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper investigates how surveillance capitalism enables a convergence of state authoritarianism and digital monopolies, posing an existential threat to fragile democracies by examining its corrosive effects on the news media in Turkey and Hungary. Drawing on document analysis and interviews with 24 journalists and media executives, it argues that a system of “dual domination” has emerged, wherein the state-led construction of an “economy of domination” through media capture and legal repression is amplified by the market-driven “instrumentarian power” of Big Tech platforms like Google. This symbiotic relationship creates a uniquely corrosive environment that systematically dismantles the free press, pollutes the information ecosystem with propaganda and disinformation, and makes independent journalism economically unviable. The analysis, framed by Shoshana Zuboff’s theories, concludes that this dynamic constitutes a “Second Tragedy of the Commons” and a slow-motion coup des gens, seizing sovereignty from the public and eroding the “right to the future tense.” In response, the paper proposes a framework for solutions grounded in Mathias Risse’s concept of justice, advocating for two pillars of action: first, the establishment of journalism as a legally protected global public good, and second, the formation of a global civic alliance to enforce structural and regulatory reforms that hold tech platforms accountable for their role in democratic backsliding.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Authoritarianism, Reform, Media, Journalism, Democratic Backsliding, Digital Platforms, and Surveillance Capitalism
Political Geography:
Turkey, Hungary, and Global Focus

2486. Energy Security in the Baltics: Perceptions in the Midst of the Russia-Ukraine War

Author:
Leon Hartwell and Agnė Rakštytė
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
Amidst the geopolitical complexities of Eurasia, the strategic employment of energy resources has emerged as a potent tool for projecting power. Since coming to power, Vladimir Putin has wielded energy security as a means to exert influence across the region, with the pinnacle of this influence underscored during the February 2022 escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war. This paper delves into perceptions on energy in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania amidst the RussiaUkraine war, specifically focusing on attitudes towards energy security, renewable energy sources, and energy efficiency. Drawing upon insights from a comprehensive mixed-methods study that involved eight focus groups and a survey of approximately 4,500 individuals (over 1,500 from each Baltic state), the research illuminates key similarities and differences in public perceptions across these nations. Key findings reveal a shared concern for energy security in all three countries, coupled with a desire for sustainable and self-sufficient energy solutions. While there is broad support for a transition to renewable energy sources, preferences for specific energy types vary. The research also identifies widespread public scepticism towards government energy strategies, and varying levels of willingness to pay higher prices for environmentally friendly energy. This analysis informs nuanced policy recommendations for Baltic states and European policymakers geared towards enhancing energy security across the region. Recommendations include more effective communication of long-term energy strategies, tailored campaigns to address scepticism towards renewable energy, and economic incentives to promote affordability and adoption of sustainable solutions.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Economy, Renewable Energy, and Energy Security
Political Geography:
Europe, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, and Baltic States

2487. A Subdued “Last Hurrah” for the (Former) Soviet Union in Romania

Author:
Jonathan Rickert
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
Relations between Romania and its large Eastern neighbor–Tsarist Russia, then the USSR, and now the Russian Federation–have been fraught with tension, mistrust, and even enmity. Three examples from the 20th century are illustrative. First, during World War One Romania sent its national “treasure,” consisting of nearly 100 tons of gold plus many other valuables, to Tsarist Russia for safekeeping. When the communist regime came to power there, it effectively confiscated the “treasure,” though some items other than the bullion and gold coins have been returned over the ensuing years. Second, in 1940, the Soviet Union annexed Bessarabia (contemporary Moldova) and Northern Bukovina (now part of Ukraine) from Romania. The desire to recover those territories was one factor leading Romania to join Nazi Germany in its war against the Soviet Union. Third, that losing effort resulted in Romania having an unpopular communist regime forced upon it, having to pay heavy reparations to the USSR, and “hosting” unwelcome Soviet troops until 1958. The oppressive Ceausescu regime was, indirectly, a result of Soviet influence in post-World War Two Romania.
Topic:
Diplomacy, European Union, Soviet Union, Post-Soviet Space, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Eastern Europe, and Romania

2488. Ukraine's Drone Ecosystem and the Defence of Europe: Lessons Lost Can't be Learned

Author:
Jon-Wyatt Matlack, Sebastian Schwartz, and Oliver Gill
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
Ukraine’s unique capabilities in drone warfare have significantly contributed to halting the largest land invasion in Europe since 1945. Given the looming threat of escalation on its eastern flank, NATO allies have a problem: falling short in understanding Ukraine’s drone ecosystem risks abdicating the strategic momentum in drone warfare to Russia and its allies. Through primary interviews with military, government, and civilian actors, we argue that the core characteristics of this ecosystem represent lessons to be learned themselves. Unfolding across the categories of speed, scale, and urgency, we recommend to NATO allies three policy proposals stemming from our analysis: the establishment of an institutionalised joint venture system for defence technologies, a systematic civil-military liaison structure, and the commitment to binding defence contracts in exchange for soliciting Ukrainian drone expertise. We conclude by pointing towards the sober truth: NATO countries cannot learn the lessons from Ukraine’s drone ecosystem if they concede to Russia’s strategic goals.
Topic:
NATO, European Union, Weapons, Drones, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

2489. From Globalisation to Geopolitics: The Changing Dynamics of World Order and their Implications for the EU

Author:
Richard Higgott
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
In 2025, the narrative of globalisation has been replaced by geopolitics and great power competition. Today’s international system is increasingly shaped by four significant trends, influenced by strongman leadership: democratic backsliding, declining trust in the United States, fractured transatlantic relations, and a new mercantilism. This research report from LSE IDEAS’s Europe Initiative and authored by Richard Higgott is supported by the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom. It discusses this shift from globalisation to geopolitics. The paper analyses the changing dynamics of world order including ‘middle powers’, the role of strongman leaders, and the implications for the European Union – concluding with strategic recommendations for European policymakers.
Topic:
Globalization, European Union, Geopolitics, and International Order
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2490. The Responsibility to Protect and Not Neglect: At Home and Abroad, the Afghan People Deserve More International Support for a Better Future

Author:
Amina Ahmed
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Fourth Freedom Forum
Abstract:
This policy brief is informed by the author’s personal lived experiences as an Afghan woman and refugee currently residing in the United States. It examines several of the urgent issues facing Afghanistan and its people, both within the country and among the diasporas and highlights the decay of education for both girls and boys, the dire economic conditions that demand immediate international attention and support, and the severe suppression of human rights—particularly women’s rights—under Taliban rule.
Topic:
Education, Foreign Aid, Women, Refugees, and Responsibility to Protect (R2P)
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and South Asia

2491. Netanyahu and the End of the Jewish State

Author:
Christopher Datta
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
I support Israel’s right to exist and its right to defend itself. Hamas is a terrorist organization and the attack by Hamas on Israel on October 7, 2023, was an outrage and a war crime. Hezbollah in Lebanon is also a terrorist organization, and Iran is a rogue state. However, the atrocities committed by Israel’s enemies cannot be allowed to obscure the fact that Binyamin Netanyahu and his policies have condemned Israel to eventual collapse. Sadly, Israel as a Jewish state is now locked into a trajectory that it cannot survive in the long run. This has major implications for the future of American foreign policy in the region. Primarily, this is because of the end of the two-state solution. Netanyahu has spent his entire long career working to annex the West Bank, and his settlement policies have succeeded to all intents and purposes in doing just that. It only remains for Netanyahu to one day make annexation official. According to Peace Now, the Israeli movement advocating for peace, as of 2024 there are 141 settlements in the West Bank (settlements in the West Bank were officially established by the government, East Jerusalem excluded) and 224 outposts (outposts are settlements that were established since the 1990’s without government approval and are considered illegal according to Israeli law). According to the same source, there are almost 504,000 Jews living in those settlements and outposts, with just under 3 million Palestinians in the West Bank, Israeli settlers consider the West Bank Jewish land, their land. They are determined to keep it and they are well armed. Any attempt to remove them will spark a civil war within Israel. A conversation I had with a group of these settlers brought home to me the depth of their feelings. They said the solution to what to do with the Palestinians in Israel was to push them all into Jordan, or else kill them. They then praised Baruch Goldstein, the man who in 1994 attacked the Ibrahimi Mosque in Hebron and killed 29 people, including children, wounded 125 others, and was himself killed. The settlers said he was a hero, and they wanted to build a shrine to him.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Demographics, Hezbollah, Settlements, Hamas, and Benjamin Netanyahu
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and West Bank

2492. My Ambassador Was a Spy for Cuba

Author:
Melissa Clegg-Tripp
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
In 2001, I was on my third tour in the Foreign Service, excited to be serving for the first time as the “Information Officer” as it was then termed in La Paz, Bolivia. (The job title sounded fancier when translated into Spanish; I was the “Agregada de Prensa.”) Counternarcotics dominated the bilateral agenda because Bolivia, then the poorest country in Latin America, was a major producer of coca leaves, raw material for cocaine. The drug was trafficked to the United States and Europe and fueled addiction and violent crime. A big part of my job was to work with the Bolivian media to showcase US-Bolivian cooperation in eradicating coca and to profile the success of the “alternative development” programs the United States was funding. Those programs included health and educational assistance as well as support to farmers who elected to grow legal trade crops such as bananas and pineapples. It was a bit of a hard sell in that Bolivia, like other Andean countries, had a tradition of using coca leaves for medicinal, spiritual, and social purposes. Coca, a mild stimulant, also has nutritional value, helps with high altitude headaches, and is consumed either by way of chewing or by being made into a tea. Many Bolivians did not like the demonization of the leaf. Also, frankly, it was harder to grow bananas and pineapples. They took a long time to mature; they were susceptible to disease; they had to be carefully transported on bad roads to foreign markets. Furthermore, not many Bolivians seemed to be addicted to cocaine, and there was a sentiment out there that Bolivia produced cocaine only because “North Americans” wanted it, and the social ills accompanying the drug were really our problem, not theirs.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Memoir, Drugs, and Espionage
Political Geography:
Cuba, Latin America, and Bolivia

2493. Political Humor in Communist Eastern Europe

Author:
Jonathan Rickert
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
Political humor was an important aspect of daily life in communist Eastern Europe – – simultaneously an emotional escape valve and cris de coeur. Anti-regime jokes of various sorts were exchanged cautiously, within families and among trusted friends. Some ridiculed communism itself, others Russia/the Soviet Union, and in many cases the local dictator, whoever he was. Others focused on the shortages, hardships, and other privations of daily life. Examples of such political humor often appeared, disappeared, and then reappeared in altered form. Many such jokes prevalent in communist Eastern Europe hopped from country to country and were recycled versions of each other, adapted to the circumstances and personalities wherever they circulated. Where any particular witticism originated was impossible to ascertain, and where it would end up, and in what form, were equally unknowable. Extensive scholarly interest has been paid to such Eastern European humor, including multiple analyses and compendia. The flavor and content of at least some of those works are contained in the title of one such volume, First Prize: Fifteen Years! by C. Banc and A. Dundes. That title is drawn from the following Romanian joke: A competition for the best political joke was announced. Do you know what the first prize was? No. Fifteen years! The joke cleverly encompasses both the risk and “rewards” of indulging in such activity.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Politics, Memoir, Soviet Union, and Humor
Political Geography:
Europe and Eastern Europe

2494. Not Your Average Visitor: Senator Edward “Ted” Kennedy in London and Bucharest

Author:
Jonathan Rickert
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
Visits by CODELs, or Congressional delegations, long have been an inescapable fact of life for US missions overseas. And serving as “control officer” for legislative visitors is a rite of passage for many Foreign Service officers stationed abroad. There are two main categories of CODEL. First are the boondoggles, during which the Congresspeople visit only developed countries and spend more time on tourism and shopping than anything else. We had more than our fair share of those in London. Then there are what I would call “substantive” CODELs, which visit countries that often are not garden spots and look into issues that are of serious concern to the US, such as human rights abuses and drug trafficking. These are rarer but can be helpful to the posts visited in promoting our foreign policy objectives. A very few CODELs have a third purpose, providing an opportunity for a senator or representative seeking higher office to raise his or her profile, at home and abroad. Among several experiences that I had over the years as a CODEL control officer, two stand out. Both involved Senator Edward “Ted” Kennedy; one had all the earmarks of a boondoggle, while the other seemed to have a profile-raising objective.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Memoir
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Romania, and United States of America

2495. Shifting Sands for Public Diplomacy in the USSR and Russia

Author:
Michael Hurley
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
Public diplomacy (PD) work in the Soviet Union and Russia from the Cold War to the current time has presented some unique and variable challenges. As an example, during the pre-1985 Cold War years, interaction with in-country media was most often possible only by attending Foreign Ministry press briefings. In the Gorbachev era, 1985-91, this began to change. In the Yeltsin years, 1991-99, the Russian media became much more open to questioning Russia’s own past, and it was also much easier for western journalists to get appointments in the ministries. In the Putin years, 2000 to the present time, independent Russian media have disappeared from Russia and report in Russian to home and abroad readers from exile. PD practitioners have had to adjust across the full range of public diplomacy activities, including dealing with the media. In this article I will draw on my personal and professional experiences from the 1970s to the 2020s to look briefly at some of the challenges of conducting public diplomacy over the years in this closed society and recount how I and my colleagues achieved some successes in our work. I’ll conclude by looking at some of the current challenges public diplomacy faces.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Cold War, Diplomacy, Soviet Union, and Public Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Russia, North America, and United States of America

2496. Differences with Hanoi About “Peace Talks”

Author:
Thomas E. McNamara
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
On my first diplomatic assignment in the embassy in Paris, I spent most of my time on Vietnam War issues, in which the French were heavily involved. Shortly after President Johnson’s March 1968 address to the nation, the US and North Vietnamese negotiations opened in Paris. In the first private meetings and press conferences after the talks opened, Le Duc Tho, head of the North Vietnamese delegation, asserted that they came to Paris to talk about “the timing and the manner of the US withdrawal of its forces from Vietnam.” The US delegation heads, Averell Harriman and Cyrus Vance, said they came “to negotiate peace, an end to the war.” After a few weeks of inconclusive talks, Le Duc Tho gave a press conference directly accusing the US of reneging on the agreement to meet in Paris. My boss, Ambassador Sargent Shriver, recently arrived in Paris, called me in, and said: “Find out about this.” Shriver was briefed on the talks. But he paid little attention to Vietnam and was focused on his new job, ambassador to France. I suspect this issue came up in his introductory calls on ministers and parliamentary leaders, who were interested in the negotiations. He needed a response.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Negotiation, Memoir, and Vietnam War
Political Geography:
Vietnam, North America, and United States of America

2497. Reducing Inequity Globally Will Make America Safer, Stronger, and More Prosperous

Author:
Marianne Scott
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
The views of the Biden and Trump administrations on diversity, equity, inclusion and accessibility (DEIA) could not be in greater contrast. President Biden issued three Executive Orders (EOs) on the subject, mandating that the federal government support and extend equity to a broad variety of individuals and communities facing poverty and discrimination. His secretary of state, Anthony Blinken, directed the State Department to engage with foreign governments and foreign peoples on equity and justice, calling the EOs “based on hard-nosed self-interest.” On his first day in office, President Trump revoked President Biden’s EOs on equity. His secretary of state, Marco Rubio, introduced three criteria for the State Department: If it doesn’t make America safer, stronger, and more prosperous, don’t do it. Although the current administration is scrubbing all talk of equity, I think using Secretary Rubio’s yardstick to measure whether addressing equity globally will make America safer, stronger, and more prosperous shows that equity considerations do belong in our nation’s foreign policy. Here’s how I came to that conclusion.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Inequality, Equity, State Department, Diversity, Equity, and and Inclusion (DEI)
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2498. The Destruction of USAID

Author:
W. Robert Pearson
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
The final destruction of USAID by President Trump in early July 2025 is the greatest strategic surrender of global American influence in the 80 years since the end of WWII.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Soft Power, Donald Trump, and USAID
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2499. Aftershocks from Gaza: From Local to Global Consequences (Part 1)

Author:
Institute for the Study of Diplomacy Working Group
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Abstract:
The grotesque attacks by Hamas on October 7, 2023, and Israel’s subsequent military campaign in Gaza have upended long-standing assumptions about regional order. The Middle East’s previous reliance on a US-led security framework has given way to a fragmented, multi-aligned landscape in which middle powers pursue their interests, while the Palestinian issue—long marginalized—has returned to the center of regional and global diplomacy. Israel has secured tactical military gains but at the cost of increasing diplomatic isolation, while conditions in Gaza have fueled global demands for a sustainable political solution. Iran, Hezbollah, and Syria face profound setbacks, while Turkey and the Arab Gulf states seek to expand influence without the means to dominate. China and Russia remain cautious players, unwilling or unable to shape the conflict’s outcome. For the United States, the Gaza war poses a strategic dilemma. Despite efforts to broker ceasefires and secure hostages, Washington has been unable—or unwilling—to exert decisive leverage on Israel. The Biden and Trump administrations alike have struggled to articulate a coherent, sustainable strategy that balances US interests in security, energy, stability, and credibility. The ISD Gaza Report is organized in two parts: Part I: A ground assessment of the regional shifts since October 7, with particular focus on Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as the reemergence of Palestine as the central unresolved question in Middle East politics, and the role of regional states. Part II: A deeper analysis of Iran’s position and prospects, scenarios for regional order, and US policy options, culminating in concrete recommendations for advancing stability while protecting US strategic interests. Participants underscored that any durable path forward begins and ends with Palestine and the Palestinians. US policymakers must adapt to a regional order defined not by hegemonic control but by contested pluralism and assertive middle powers. Strategic clarity, consistent diplomacy, and credible leverage are essential if Washington hopes to pursue its interests amid the aftershocks from Gaza—and not merely react to them.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Hezbollah, Strategic Interests, Palestinians, Regional Politics, 2023 Gaza War, and Regional Stability
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

2500. Case Study on Conspiracy to Smuggle U.S.-Origin Military Equipment and Dual-Use Technology to North Korea

Author:
Jessica Kim and Sarah Burkhard
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
A Chinese national, Shenghua Wen, pleaded guilty in 2024 to conspiring with North Korea to export restricted items without a license, violating the U.S. International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), the North Korea Sanctions Regulations, and Executive Orders. At the direction of the North Korean government, Wen acted from his private residence in the United States, buying military goods domestically and providing false shipping information to send the items to Hong Kong, and then to North Korea. The case demonstrates that though North Korea can achieve limited success through such schemes, its agents face a high risk of exposure, detainment, and prosecution. Beyond firearms, ammunition, and other military equipment, North Korea sought civilian aircraft engine blueprints to manufacture engines for its drone program. At present, Wen’s scheme does not appear to indicate the presence of a more sophisticated smuggling network. Thus far, Wen’s partners/co-conspirators, the unnamed Hong Kong-based “broker,” and front company mentioned in the criminal complaint have not faced any punitive action from the U.S. government.
Topic:
Security, Sanctions, Smuggling, and Dual Use Items
Political Geography:
Asia, North Korea, North America, and United States of America